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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: But this one is good. All right.

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Speaker 1: Here we go. We're growing in so.

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Speaker 2: We're sitting at a cash.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win. God, that's incredible. Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabai you want to pass.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Brandon Anderson. Here as always with Raheem Palmer.

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Speaker 1: We're back after missing our Friday episode, celebrating a little Thanksgiving,

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Speaker 1: eating some food, enjoying some football. Week twelve Action is here.

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Speaker 1: Revenge of the home teams today. The season has been

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Speaker 1: dominated on the road home teams eight and three today

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Speaker 1: eight and three straight up and against the spread four

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Speaker 1: and zero in some big division games. Also, I think

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Speaker 1: only our second winning week of the season. Four favorites.

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Speaker 1: Not a winning week for me, Raheem. I got demolished today.

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Speaker 1: Please tell me you did better than I did. Well.

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Speaker 3: My my contest picks went three and two and I

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Speaker 3: didn't have too many big plazy to day. I didn't go,

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Speaker 3: I didn't spray the board. I know I had the

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Speaker 3: over in the Bucks coach game. I can't complain about

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Speaker 3: a three inch two week, but I really wish I

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Speaker 3: had another.

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Speaker 2: Four and one week.

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Speaker 3: We went four and one four straight weeks. Was hoping

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Speaker 3: for another one that would have got us into the money.

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Speaker 3: But we're just outside of the money in the contest,

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Speaker 3: so we'll see what happens.

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Speaker 1: YEW three and two will keep you hanging around. I'm

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Speaker 1: not in the contest, but I would have gone zero

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Speaker 1: to five I think if I was this week. So

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Speaker 1: that's a sort of week. It's been weird, weird NFL season.

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Speaker 1: Right now, at this very moment, there are twelve AFC

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Speaker 1: teams at five hundred or better. We're we're heading the

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Speaker 1: week thirteen. They're twelve out of the six five hundred better.

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Speaker 1: And then in the NFC, the Vikings are still the

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Speaker 1: seventh seed even after a loss. At five and six,

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Speaker 1: there's eight NFC teams within one game of the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: The Lions are ten and a one and mathematically alive

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Speaker 1: for the playoffs. In the NFC, nobody is good, everybody

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Speaker 1: is bad. Everyone is kind of good. I don't know

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Speaker 1: what's happening. We're gonna get all that. We'll talk about

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Speaker 1: the games Today, we'll do Monday Night Football preview and

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Speaker 1: our Week thirteen Hot Read. Of course, as all his

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Speaker 1: odds are from BETTMGM, the official ops provider of the

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Speaker 1: Action Network podcast. Let's start out at the top with

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Speaker 1: really the one great game of the day between Tampa

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Speaker 1: Bay and Indianapolis finished out Box thirty eight thirty one,

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Speaker 1: back and forth close throughout. Bucks did get the cover

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Speaker 1: and this one went way over. What was your biggest

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Speaker 1: takeaway from the Bucks victory today?

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Speaker 2: My biggest takeaway is dead the coach. They've really ended

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Speaker 2: the run. And I mean I didn't.

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Speaker 3: Think that they were going to be able to run

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Speaker 3: the ball on this Buccaneers defense, which has been probably

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Speaker 3: the best in the league for the last three seasons.

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Speaker 3: But Jonathan Teller went out there sixteen carries, eighty three yards,

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Speaker 3: one touchdown, and he got the job done. He was

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Speaker 3: able to do what he needed to do in order

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Speaker 3: to help this team be successful. He had a fifty

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Speaker 3: percent success rate, He generated a first down on thirty

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Speaker 3: eight percent of his carries, and yet you know, the

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Speaker 3: coach go up twenty four to fourteen, and it just

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Speaker 3: felt like, where's the runs coming from?

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Speaker 2: And I just didn't. That was a little that was

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Speaker 2: a little bothersome.

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Speaker 3: They dropped back this past twenty seven straight times, and

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Speaker 3: you know, you had Carson Wentz turning the ball over

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Speaker 3: and that'll kill you. And you can't have two turnovers

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Speaker 3: against Tom Brady and expected to sbout. So what's your takeaway?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Jonathan Taylor, even the yards he did get came

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Speaker 1: mostly late, Like it really felt like they didn't get

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Speaker 1: it going until pretty late in the game. Leonard Fournette

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Speaker 1: four touchdowns, one hundred rushing yard. I think that means

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Speaker 1: he's the MVP favorite. Now. Is that how this works?

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Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor had to give over his MVP trophy and

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Speaker 1: now Fournette is the MVP. I now both lines I

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Speaker 1: think did a pretty nice job here, although at one

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Speaker 1: point I literally made a note about how the Colts

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Speaker 1: O line was dominating, especially pass blocking, and the very

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Speaker 1: next play, Eric Fisher gets a beat on a strip

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Speaker 1: sack for Carson Wentz. So I wore my Carson Wentz

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Speaker 1: Jersey today in North Dakota, stay represent they took the loss.

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Speaker 1: I thought Wentz was pretty good. I think Carson Wentz

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Speaker 1: in one week just outplayed Josh Allen and then Tom

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Speaker 1: Brady had to have that's the two MVP favorite still

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Speaker 1: once at three hundred yards and three touchdowns. He did

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Speaker 1: have three turnovers, but where the turnover is like really

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Speaker 1: badly his fault the strip sack. That's the offensive line

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Speaker 1: letting him get to him like shack was on him

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Speaker 1: in a second interception. One was basically on the last

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Speaker 1: play of the game, just throwing it up, Hail Mary.

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Speaker 1: And the other one was just an awesome, awesome play

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Speaker 1: Antoine Winfield Junior, which you know that still counts, but

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Speaker 1: give some respect for great plays that Wentz was pretty good,

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Speaker 1: Brady was not very good, and my Brady MVP bets.

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Speaker 1: We've talked about it a lot. I'm getting a little worried.

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Speaker 1: Like the only good thing that happened for Tom Brady's

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Speaker 1: MVP candidacy today was that the Bucks got the win,

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Speaker 1: and we know that that matters, but Tampa Bay does

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Speaker 1: not look like themselves. This just this felt like a

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Speaker 1: wild card weekend playoff game between the two teams that

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Speaker 1: probably shouldn't go much further than that, you know what

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Speaker 1: I mean, Like it was fun, It was a good

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Speaker 1: game between two definitely good teams. I don't know, if

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Speaker 1: I still believe the Bucks are a great team, what

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Speaker 1: do you think about that?

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Speaker 3: I think there's been a dichotomy between the Bucks on

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Speaker 3: the road and at home the season and on the

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Speaker 3: road they really have struggle. I mean when you have

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Speaker 3: losses to the Saints Washington on the road. They lost

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Speaker 3: to the Rams on the road, they play the Patriots

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Speaker 3: tough on the rope, Whereas you look at their home

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Speaker 3: games against the Cowboys, the Falcons, the Bears, the Giants,

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Speaker 3: they're just a different team at home, and I don't like,

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Speaker 3: I can't describe it as odd for Tom Brady team.

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Speaker 2: You know, they had some injuries too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well yeah, the injuries. I mean, they just they

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Speaker 1: can't get healthy. Devin and White got the injury. Another

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Speaker 1: offensive lineman went out, Jamel Dean, who just I think

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Speaker 1: had come back out again. This team just can't get healthy.

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Speaker 1: And you know, we said coming to the season any team,

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Speaker 1: that's the one thing that can really derail things is injuries,

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Speaker 1: and especially injuries at cornerback are on the offensive line,

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Speaker 1: and that's where this team, especially at corner continues to

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Speaker 1: take hits. So you know, credit to the Bucks for

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Speaker 1: winning this game. They haven't been winning these games. Discredit

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Speaker 1: to the Colts. I guess they have been losing these

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Speaker 1: games like Indianapolis went down ten, and you know, they're

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Speaker 1: not quite my Vikings, but they sure seem to blow

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Speaker 1: these sort of leads, so that definitely looked like a

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Speaker 1: danger zone spot for them. I am a little worried

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Speaker 1: about Campus defense though I know that they're missing guys,

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Speaker 1: but it just felt like they really couldn't consistently get

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Speaker 1: off the field. And the Colts are good, like they're fine,

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Speaker 1: but they're not really worrying me. And it's not even

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Speaker 1: the run game. It's Carson Wentz beating you, and my guy,

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Speaker 1: Carson Wentz shouldn't be beating your Super Bowl defense. You know,

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Speaker 1: Like I know they're not healthy, but I don't know

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Speaker 1: if I trust this defense to get off the field.

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Speaker 1: You gotta get off the field against the Colts, don't you.

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Speaker 2: I think you're under.

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Speaker 3: Selling the Colts a little bit, but I also think,

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Speaker 3: I mean, the injuries, at some point, you got to

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Speaker 3: have your guys out there, especially at corner, and the

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Speaker 3: Colts are probably the best team in the league at

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Speaker 3: throwing the ball up there and just getting a pass.

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Speaker 3: Of the fairness Aaron, and we see it every week

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Speaker 3: with them. They're not an easy team to stop, and

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Speaker 3: that's why, Like I think, I like the old I

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Speaker 3: game about the over last week, and this was this

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Speaker 3: was prome to be a shootout, and I think as

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Speaker 3: long as you got Tom Brady on the other end,

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Speaker 3: you got a shot, Like yeah, this is this is

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Speaker 3: this is this is an offensive league now, so you're

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Speaker 3: gonna have to win some shootouts. And it appears that

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Speaker 3: they're capable of winning. So I they're eight and three, Like,

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Speaker 3: I think we're kind of nitpicking at some point.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we definitely are nitpicking. But you know, the Colts

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Speaker 1: had every chance to win this game, even though they

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Speaker 1: had five turnovers. So you don't get too many games

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Speaker 1: against Tom Brady with all that talent that looked like

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Speaker 1: it was finally starting to get healthy into this game,

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Speaker 1: have five turnovers and still go up big early and

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Speaker 1: still have a chance to win. So it is nitpicking.

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Speaker 1: What matters most is that they got the win because,

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Speaker 1: like you said, they're so much better at home, so

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Speaker 1: you got to get the win. They're basically locked up

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Speaker 1: on the division for the most part, but they're only

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Speaker 1: game back still on the on the one seed, and

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Speaker 1: they need that because that's a week off to get

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Speaker 1: their guys healthy. That would be huge, and then you

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Speaker 1: get the home games all the way throughout. Even the

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Speaker 1: two seed is a pretty big win, even if it's

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Speaker 1: Arizona ahead of them, because maybe you have to go

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Speaker 1: to Arizona for one game in the playoffs, but Arizona

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Speaker 1: may not make it there anyways. So just getting the win,

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Speaker 1: I think is the takeaway for Tampa. Indianapolis is a

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Speaker 1: pretty good six and six team. They're not going anywhere,

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Speaker 1: but it's a tough road in the AFC. Yeah, let's

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Speaker 1: go with another AFC one, Titans Patriots that one. So

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Speaker 1: the Titans come in as I think tied for the

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Speaker 1: one seed. Despite that, it closed as a full touchdown

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Speaker 1: underdog minus seven for New England. Didn't matter. New England

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Speaker 1: crushed the Titans thirty six to thirteen, easy cover, easy

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Speaker 1: over on that one. What did you make of the

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Speaker 1: Patriots blowout here? Is this just what we've been waiting

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Speaker 1: for from the Titans all season?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, It's definitely what we've been waiting for from the

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Speaker 3: Titans all season. I mean, obviously, the turnover issues continue

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Speaker 3: to play play the Titans right now, and they've had

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Speaker 3: four turnovers in back to back game. You can't win

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Speaker 3: like that. And I think the bottom line is the

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Speaker 3: Titans are they're running out of playmakers. Like when you

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Speaker 3: have aj Brown out.

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Speaker 1: And Julio Jones and Derrick Henry, like the whole is

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Speaker 1: out and nobody playing.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's like at some point you've got to have

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Speaker 3: those playmakers. But at the same time, I think the

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Speaker 3: most alarming thing about this game is that the Titans

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Speaker 3: had two undred and seventy yards rushing and six point

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Speaker 3: nine yards would carry and they still.

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Speaker 2: Got blown out.

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Speaker 3: So it's just like, what do you do under that?

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Speaker 3: Under those circumstances, And it comes back to the turnovers.

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Speaker 3: At the end of the day, the Patriots have been

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Speaker 3: playing really good defense, but beyond that, Matt Jones is

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Speaker 3: showing that he could actually he's not just a game

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Speaker 3: manager at this point. So I think that the Patriots

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Speaker 3: are kind of a force to be reckoned with, But

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Speaker 3: the Titans are They're a sink and chip.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that that may be overstating a little

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Speaker 1: bit to me. This game. The Patriots they dominated, I guess,

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Speaker 1: but it's it's like a light domination. Like, I think

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Speaker 1: that the scoreline really flattered New England here the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: You know, at halftime, it's seventeen sixteen, and it definitely

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Speaker 1: felt like New England was relatively in control. But the

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Speaker 1: Titans were coming up with plays, Like you said, they're

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Speaker 1: running the ball. They kept ripping off these long runs

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Speaker 1: and you're not really expecting that. But the Patriots defense

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Speaker 1: is past defense. The run defense is vulnerable. You know,

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Speaker 1: I think New England's real lucky Derrick Henry was not

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Speaker 1: healthy in this game, because if the random dudes that

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Speaker 1: Tennessee has are ripping off big runs, what if King

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Speaker 1: Henry is out there. But Titans had drives to the

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Speaker 1: New England twenty six thirty two, forty six two and

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Speaker 1: forty two yard line that all ended with zero points

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Speaker 1: because either they turned it over or they turned it

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Speaker 1: over on downs. They missed a field goal, they missed

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Speaker 1: an extra point hit in the crossbar. So there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of closer chances here, and they kept going for

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Speaker 1: it late too. New England really ran up the score late.

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Speaker 1: So I don't know, like the score line looks like

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Speaker 1: the score we've been waiting for for Tennessee. But I

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Speaker 1: don't know that it actually was that bad or that

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Speaker 1: good for newing line. I think the Patriots might come

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Speaker 1: away a little bit overrated from this game. What do

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Speaker 1: you think.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's tough to say that, because they did.

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Speaker 3: They've won six in a row, and all of our

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Speaker 3: games have looked exactly like this one to a certain extent.

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Speaker 1: I haven't covered six games in a row.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean when you look at the last three games,

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Speaker 3: that was this game the old think you want teams

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Speaker 3: to be just run the ball.

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Speaker 2: So I think you got to give the Patriots on credit.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I think we give them credit. But it

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Speaker 1: does feel a little bit like the Patriots right now

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Speaker 1: in this moment are a little bit like the Titans

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Speaker 1: were maybe a month ago. Like it feels like we're

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Speaker 1: our our overall opinion of them, the public opinion of

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Speaker 1: them maybe is a little more inflated than it should be.

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Speaker 1: These are not the old Patriots. Mac Jones is not

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady like comes true.

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Speaker 3: But I thought that coming into this game, and I thought,

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Speaker 3: you know, with this line being six and a half seven, like,

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Speaker 3: you gotta look at this line. This line open two

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Speaker 3: and a half, closed at seven seven and a half

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Speaker 3: and the Patriots go out.

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Speaker 2: There and cover.

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Speaker 3: They were plus one plus one point one per play,

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Speaker 3: plus four point eight yards for pass.

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Speaker 2: It's like they dominated all facets of the game.

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Speaker 3: And you know, for me, I thought, Okay, maybe the

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Speaker 3: Patriots are being overvalued here, but it's clear that they're not.

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Speaker 3: So it's just like I don't know if we're I

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Speaker 3: don't know if we've reached a peak of their market value.

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Speaker 2: That's all I'm saying.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree. Hitting the Sunday afternoon games Rams Packers,

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Speaker 1: the big one that we were waiting for, didn't quite

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Speaker 1: live up to the billing. Although Packers get the win

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Speaker 1: thirty six twenty eight, it was not close, not close

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Speaker 1: like that scored leads you to indicate, not really close throughout.

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Speaker 1: Packers ended up closing as home dogs. Not something that

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Speaker 1: happens thereon Rodgers very often. I think he's seven to

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Speaker 1: one and a one against the spread at home now

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Speaker 1: as an underdog, so they get the cover and the

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Speaker 1: money line plus one fifteen an we hit the over here.

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Speaker 1: So I saw your tweet about this. Did we just

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Speaker 1: all overthink us? And this is just Aaron Rodgers and

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Speaker 1: Matt Stafford. Yeah, I think that's that's really what it

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Speaker 1: comes down to.

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Speaker 3: And Aaron Rodgers dominated Matthew Stafford throughout his entire career.

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Speaker 3: But I think now you got Stafford playing through injuries,

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Speaker 3: and I think a lot of the Sharps thought that,

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Speaker 3: you know, Stafford, yes, a couple of weeks to rest up,

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Speaker 3: and that wasn't the case.

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Speaker 2: He's just turning the ball over at will.

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Speaker 3: And he's not even giving his team a chance to

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Speaker 3: win these games. It's kind of frustrating for me because

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Speaker 3: I had the Rams. I think my big takeaway is

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Speaker 3: the Packers could be in a league where nobody's really great.

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Speaker 3: Maybe the Packers are that team that can rise to

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Speaker 3: the top.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and Theyer the team that is at some point

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Speaker 1: in the near future going to get back Jyr Alexander

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Speaker 1: and Zadarius Smith and looks like David botyar any week

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Speaker 1: now and Aaron Jones is back. And you know they're

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Speaker 1: also big, big win for green Bay because they're on

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Speaker 1: the bye week now now get to rest. So now

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Speaker 1: two weeks off and we're gonna see some of these

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Speaker 1: guys and they've been winning even without them, So now

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Speaker 1: green Bay is in very good position. My takeaway from

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Speaker 1: this game. This is one of those games that you

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Speaker 1: can really tell who checked the box score and who

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Speaker 1: watched the game. You checked the box score and you're like, oh,

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Speaker 1: it's a one score game, you know, just like with

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Speaker 1: aught Rams, Packers close all the way. Matthew Stafford three touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: three hundred and two yards. You know what a duel between

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Speaker 1: Stafford and Rodgers. No, that's not the game that any

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Speaker 1: of us watched. This was a blowout. Like the Packers

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Speaker 1: dominated the entire first half. The only thing they kept

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Speaker 1: it close was a bomb to Van Jefferson and a

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Speaker 1: muff punt twenty seventeen of the half. Even though the

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Speaker 1: Packers are basically in control thirty six seventeen out of

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Speaker 1: the third quarter, and then the Rams get some garbage

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Speaker 1: scores after that. Rams had twenty minutes of possession. They

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Speaker 1: had three turnovers. Stafford, by the way, twenty one of

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Speaker 1: thirty eight, he had a pick six. Again, he had

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Speaker 1: a stripsack on his own twelve, which was pretty close

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Speaker 1: to like a strip six? Is that a thing? He

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Speaker 1: was on laid down passes negative zero point nine to

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Speaker 1: four EPA per play, only one of eight passes successful.

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Speaker 1: He was terrible. Like, that's the numbers that you need

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Speaker 1: to see. That's the Stafford that we saw today. Oh yeah,

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Speaker 1: without a doubt, forty four percent succe. That's where he

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Speaker 1: generated the first down of just twenty four percent of

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Speaker 1: his plays, and like you said, he had a negative EPA.

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Speaker 2: I just think this this offense really lacks an identity

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Speaker 2: right now.

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Speaker 3: And of course Odell Beckham had the bomb at the

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Speaker 3: end of the game, and Jefferson caught a couple of balls,

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Speaker 3: but as a whole, this is a team that can't

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Speaker 3: really run the ball.

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Speaker 2: Stafford just hasn't been playing well.

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Speaker 3: And you know, I've read an interesting stat just Stafford

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Speaker 3: Bay's offense throughout his entire career. Weeks one through eight

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Speaker 3: he has a positive EPA per play point eleven, weeks

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Speaker 3: nine two seventeen he has a zero EPA, which is

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Speaker 3: nineteen amongst all coach It's almost a yearly issue where

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Speaker 3: you start to see this offense or rest on the

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Speaker 3: second half of a year. I think it's getting a

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Speaker 3: lot more attention right now because you upgraded Jared Golf

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Speaker 3: into Matthew Stanford, but it really has it. It hasn't

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Speaker 3: done anything justice from what I've seen thus far. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I mean, obviously you had a couple more explosive plays,

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Speaker 3: but this office still doesn't look good.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's stat with McVeigh makes me think of like

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Speaker 1: the Scooby Doo meme and it's Sean McVay and he

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Speaker 1: rips off his mask and it's actually Cliff Kingsbury underneath there. Like,

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Speaker 1: maybe that's the offensive gurus. The defenses need half a

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Speaker 1: season and then start to figure some things out in

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Speaker 1: the second half. It just isn't quite as good. I

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Speaker 1: don't know. Maybe Cliff Kingsbury gonna take his mask off

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Speaker 1: and be Sean McVay this year, so this may have

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Speaker 1: switched around. Rams have lost three in a row. Rams

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Speaker 1: have failed to cover I think five in a row now.

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Speaker 1: Their last win was Halloween against the Texans. Their last

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Speaker 1: win with a team that has more than four wins

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Speaker 1: right now was the Bucks in September. So since that game,

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Speaker 1: here's here's the only four good teams they've played. Cardinals

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Speaker 1: thirty seven to twenty, demolished twenty eight to sixteen against

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Speaker 1: the Titans, not close, thirty one to ten against the Niners,

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Speaker 1: demolished thirty six to twenty eight. Against the Packers, fake close,

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Speaker 1: they allowed twenty eight or more. In all those games,

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Speaker 1: Tumult have scored one thirty two to seventy four across

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Speaker 1: the only four good teams that they've played in that span.

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Speaker 1: So yikes, it's I was on the Rams also, we

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Speaker 1: both had them. It looked like a great spot out

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Speaker 1: of the bye week and healthy against the Packers team

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Speaker 1: that kind of was staggering into their by Not anymore.

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Speaker 1: They're puffing their chests a little bit and feeling pretty

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Speaker 1: good now. And yeah, the Rams is a tough loss too,

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Speaker 1: because we've said along that division is tough, and it

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Speaker 1: looks like the Rams are really struggling now to contend

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Speaker 1: for the division. That drops them probably to the five seed.

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Speaker 1: They're going to miss the playoffs. But dropped to the

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Speaker 1: five seed, now you not only don't get a home game,

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Speaker 1: you're on the road against the Packers or the Cowboys,

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Speaker 1: you know, or the Box like that's that's your first

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Speaker 1: round matchup. And well we just saw how that went

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Speaker 1: for Matt Stafford. So it's s getting ugly for LA.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 3: The interesting thing is that a big part of this

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Speaker 3: handicap was that the Packers lost Elton Jenkins and David

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Speaker 3: Boccieri was still out.

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Speaker 2: They had one sack today, like you had one sack,

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Speaker 2: and Aaron Rodgers is twenty eight or forty five with

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Speaker 2: three hundred and seven yards and two touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: So if you can't if Von Miller and Aaron Donald

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Speaker 3: can't put pressure on Aaron Rodgers when it matters, then.

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Speaker 2: I don't know what to say about this team.

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Speaker 3: So I think the Rams are Like somebody tweeted out,

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Speaker 3: the Rams are in trouble, and I responded, They're not

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Speaker 3: just in trouble today, their season is in trouble. I mean,

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Speaker 3: this is a team with Super Bowl aspirations, and I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna be honest with you, I just don't see it

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Speaker 3: right now.

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Speaker 2: So I don't even think there's a spot for you.

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Speaker 3: To buy low on this team, because without Woods, I

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Speaker 3: think they're they're they're in deep shit.

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Speaker 1: It looks problematic. They're they're gonna have to turn things

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Speaker 1: around here in December. One more team out of their division,

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Speaker 1: the forty nine ers. My Vikings lose another heartbreaker to

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Speaker 1: the forty nine ers. This isn't really even heartbreak at

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Speaker 1: this point, Like this is this is like our fifth

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Speaker 1: most heartbreaking loss of the season. So forty nine ers

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Speaker 1: thirty four to twenty six, Niners hold on to get

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Speaker 1: the cover. A lot of folks, including I think both

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Speaker 1: of us on Minnesota and this one. The big problem

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Speaker 1: here pretty obvious going in, and I really I backed

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Speaker 1: off my Minnesota love heading in. The Vikings literally were

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Speaker 1: missing their entire defensive line, all four starters, and it

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Speaker 1: looked like, uh oh, the Niners have Trent Williams healthy,

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Speaker 1: they have George Kittle healthy. Are they just going to

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Speaker 1: run all over them? Yeah? Turns out yes, is the

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Speaker 1: answer to that. Thirty nine runs two hundred and eight yards,

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Speaker 1: three touchdowns, and this controlled the clock, They controlled the game.

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Speaker 1: So of course the Vikings are the Vikings. So they

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Speaker 1: had their tenth one score game of the season out

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Speaker 1: of eleven. They made a game of it, but I

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Speaker 1: feel like the Niners were mostly in control. Here. Is

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Speaker 1: this what you expected once we saw those d line

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Speaker 1: and juries come out.

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Speaker 3: This is the eleventh straight game this season in which

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Speaker 3: the Vikings have held a seven point lead, you know,

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Speaker 3: Like I actually saw some people tweeting who's gonna be

431
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Speaker 3: on the MVP Merry Go Round for this week? And

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Speaker 3: Kirk cousin's name came up, and then at some point

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Speaker 3: you see the offense just completely just pull the same

434
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:30,399
Speaker 3: Jecko one high thing that they do every single week,

435
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:34,719
Speaker 3: where it's just inconsistent. And obviously the forty nine ers

436
00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:37,280
Speaker 3: they had the ability to match up against the defensive

437
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 3: line and run the ball, but it just felt like

438
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:44,120
Speaker 3: the Vikings offense if they just had anybody other than

439
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:47,199
Speaker 3: Mike Zimmer, I think this would be a team that

440
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 3: has a real shot to do something.

441
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 2: Like if you look at the end of the half

442
00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers.

443
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 3: First it's first and twenty and they're pretty much out

444
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,639
Speaker 3: of field goal range, and somehow they ended up scoring

445
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 3: a touchdown. And then it's third and eleven, like right

446
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 3: before the touchdown, and the Vikers have all three time

447
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 3: outs and they don't use any of the tome outs

448
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:10,640
Speaker 3: to save themselves some time to score on the next possession,

449
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 3: and of course the Vikers come back, they get a

450
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,400
Speaker 3: good kick return and then they run out of top

451
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:18,440
Speaker 3: So it's just there's a total lack of aggression.

452
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 2: I think they did have some bad luck.

453
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 3: They had some bad luck with the Dalvin Cook fumble

454
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,439
Speaker 3: after the forty nine Ers went up seven, but they

455
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:28,320
Speaker 3: still made it a game. So I think this offense

456
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 3: is just the offense is good enough to do some

457
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 3: things and cast some damage and even win a playoff game.

458
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 3: But it's just whatever reason the defense they can't. They

459
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:42,520
Speaker 3: can't sustain leads and not aggressive when they need.

460
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:43,120
Speaker 2: To be offensive.

461
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's time for Mike Zimmer to go. So you

462
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:49,199
Speaker 1: talked about right before the half, final two minutes of

463
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 1: the half. So far this season, in eleven games, the

464
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:55,480
Speaker 1: Vikings have allowed sixty six points in the final two

465
00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 1: minutes of the half. Eleven games. Sixty six points. Let

466
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 1: me do the math for you. That's six points every

467
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 1: single game of the season in two minutes. That's three

468
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:08,359
Speaker 1: points a minute the defense is allowing for the entire

469
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:12,640
Speaker 1: season right before halftime, and it's six point oh per

470
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,920
Speaker 1: game is the highest average this century. But guess what

471
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:19,960
Speaker 1: third highst this century last year's Vikings four point three

472
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,879
Speaker 1: eight points allowed in the final tunus before the half.

473
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:26,920
Speaker 1: This team is supposed to be built around its defense.

474
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,960
Speaker 1: That's Mike Zimmer, that's his thing, that's the identity of

475
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 1: the team. I know you're missing the D line, but

476
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 1: you have to you have to roll with it. Like

477
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 1: everyone's missing somebody on their team. You're going to figure

478
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:40,639
Speaker 1: out how to get this done. So, like you said,

479
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,359
Speaker 1: Vikings go out fourteen to seven, they kick it off.

480
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,119
Speaker 1: So here's what happens from there. At fourteen to seven.

481
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:49,920
Speaker 1: Like you said, Kirk Cousins maybe MVP like Vikings, we're

482
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,399
Speaker 1: in this right. You're feeling pretty good. Are you feeling

483
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 1: decent about our Vikings bet? At fourteen to seven?

484
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:56,239
Speaker 2: I feeling great about it.

485
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, So here's what happens from there. Fifteen play, eighty

486
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 1: five five yard touchdown drive, eight minutes and twenty seconds.

487
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 1: Basically in the halftime, like you said, because they didn't

488
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 1: call the timeouts, Niners get the ball out of the half,

489
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:12,200
Speaker 1: seventy five yard touchdown drive. The very next play, Kirk

490
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,400
Speaker 1: Cousins throws it straight to a linebacker like not even

491
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 1: just I don't know what he's doing, just a terrible interception,

492
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,679
Speaker 1: and the very next play touchdown. So three Vikings plays.

493
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 1: Run goes from fourteen to seven to fourteen to twenty eight,

494
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,920
Speaker 1: and then from there we get the Dalvin Cook fumble

495
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,239
Speaker 1: that you mentioned. Somehow the Vikings kind of hang in

496
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,440
Speaker 1: because they get a kickoff touchdown. They have one good

497
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 1: touchdown drive, but there's a span before the end of

498
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 1: the game. The Vikings had two long drives where they

499
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:44,400
Speaker 1: turn it over near scoring between the fourteen to seven,

500
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:47,439
Speaker 1: and then the Niners ran thirty seven out of the

501
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 1: forty six plays. They had twenty minutes of possession to

502
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 1: under six minutes for the Vikings. The Vikings had drives

503
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 1: of two plays one, five, zero, and one, and the

504
00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:01,200
Speaker 1: Niners just kept ripping off these like ten twelve play

505
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:05,680
Speaker 1: you know, drives, and no defense is going to hold

506
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 1: up against that, even if you are kind of good,

507
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,199
Speaker 1: it's not gonna work when you're just literally on the

508
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 1: field the entire game. Even that kickoff return touchdown, as

509
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 1: nice as it was, you know, I turned that away,

510
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:18,359
Speaker 1: but it's like, ah balls, we got to put the

511
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,439
Speaker 1: defense right back out in the field and they've just

512
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 1: been out there for the last like hour of real time.

513
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 3: So I think I think the big stat of this

514
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 3: game Vikings two for eight on third down.

515
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that says it all.

516
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 3: And to me, I think that the most frustrating thing

517
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 3: about this game is that the forty nine Ers, they

518
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 3: don't have a ton of perimeter threats to where you

519
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 3: just have to be able to guard the minute middle of.

520
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:46,359
Speaker 2: The field, and for whatever reason, the Minnesota Vikers couldn't

521
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 2: do that.

522
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 1: So yeah, this is one of those games too, where

523
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins just quietly murders your chances even though you

524
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 1: don't even really see it in the stats. Like the

525
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:58,720
Speaker 1: one interception you see that basically ended the game because

526
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 1: it immediately led to a touchdown, buried them two of

527
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 1: eight and third down, one of three and fourth downs.

528
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 1: That's Kirk. He missed wide open justin Jefferson an easy

529
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 1: throw in a two point conversion. That was huge because

530
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 1: it would have been a six point game. They could

531
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 1: have got some field goals late and didn't manage the

532
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 1: clockwell missing guys, especially down the stretch. We saw the play.

533
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 1: I'm sure you saw the replay. Fourth down and goal

534
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 1: on the two yard line. Kirk lines up under the

535
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 1: right guard instead of a center. That's how much this

536
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 1: guy can't show up in the big moments. It's you

537
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,359
Speaker 1: don't see them in the box score, but Kirk just

538
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 1: can't come through. Like the numbers overall, the epas and

539
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:38,159
Speaker 1: the vorps and sharps, they're all great until it actually

540
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 1: matters and then Kirk is still Kirk credit too. We

541
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,399
Speaker 1: gotta give a little credit to the Niners. Their offense

542
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 1: is rolling Trent Williams back, George Kittle back. This is

543
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 1: what the offense was supposed to be. So I do

544
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:51,639
Speaker 1: think the Niners are a team to watch out for

545
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 1: a little bit. Although Jimmy Garoppolo had a nice game.

546
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,639
Speaker 1: Garoppolo kind of I think is just the same thing

547
00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:00,399
Speaker 1: I just said about Kirk Cousins, So when it comes

548
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:02,879
Speaker 1: time for him to make the big play, I'm not

549
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:05,240
Speaker 1: sure I really am that much more confident in the Niners.

550
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 3: Still, yeah, I think that the Niners are capable of

551
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:11,120
Speaker 3: making some noise in the playoff picture. I mean there's

552
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 3: six and six and five wins in four of their

553
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 3: last five. But I think that the problem they're gonna

554
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 3: have going forward is fort Niners.

555
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:22,120
Speaker 2: They've already They've already lost guys on the defensive.

556
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 3: It's not a defense that we saw from four ninety

557
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:25,719
Speaker 3: a couple years ago, so it was the Fred wonners

558
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 3: big and deebo stand is probably one of their best weapons.

559
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 3: So we all know Kyle Shanahan, Cain, Steve guys open.

560
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:33,479
Speaker 3: But at some point you've got to have the guys,

561
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:35,679
Speaker 3: and Deebo's one of their guys, so we'll see what

562
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:37,159
Speaker 3: happens with them going forward.

563
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 2: But it's just the way the NFC is. Anybody can

564
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 2: sneak into the playoffs at this point.

565
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:45,359
Speaker 1: Yeah for sure. All right. Last one is our stink

566
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 1: of the week. Smell it, smell it smelly.

567
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 4: It's the smell.

568
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:51,679
Speaker 2: It's quite funging.

569
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:52,920
Speaker 1: Plug your nose.

570
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 2: It's stinks.

571
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:57,920
Speaker 4: This is your stink of the week.

572
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:05,960
Speaker 1: And what could that be really other than this awful,

573
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:09,719
Speaker 1: awful Baltimore Ravens Cleveland Brown's Sunday night football game. We're

574
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:13,160
Speaker 1: given the stink to the entire game, but especially may

575
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:16,639
Speaker 1: I point out right before halftime. Here's the stretch that

576
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 1: we got in the second quarter heading in a halftime.

577
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,480
Speaker 1: We had five turnovers in six drives. We had five

578
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 1: turnovers in seventeen plays, and then included a seven play

579
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 1: field goal drive in the middle which, by the way,

580
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 1: the field goal hit the upright but bounced down somehow.

581
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 1: But five turnovers in two minutes and forty four seconds

582
00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 1: of gameplay. Lamar Jackson threw four interceptions this game, and

583
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 1: he earned them, like there should have been more turnovers

584
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 1: in this game, they were dropping interceptions out there because

585
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 1: it's like, nah, man, I just had I had one

586
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 1: a few minutes ago. You take this one back. I'll

587
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 1: get it next time. Like it's crazy the Ravens win. Anyways,

588
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 1: does the Browns did show up sixteen to ten? This

589
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 1: is they showed at the stat at the end of

590
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:02,239
Speaker 1: the game. Teams with Feig interceptions are more one to

591
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 1: fifty two since twenty fifteen. Never mind the Browns, They're

592
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 1: gonna come through with the loss for you and get

593
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 1: the Ravens to win. So yeah, that's our stink of

594
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 1: the week. Do you have any takeaways from this game?

595
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 3: I think the biggest takeaway is that the Ravens offense

596
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:19,959
Speaker 3: is a complete mess. When you look at the last

597
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:22,720
Speaker 3: two games in which Lamar Jackson's played, they only had

598
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 3: two offensive touchdowns. So I was talking about Lamar Jackson

599
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 3: for the MVP, but it just feels like every single

600
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 3: time we annoyed somebody an MVP Kennedy, it's like the

601
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 3: it's almost like the man curse at this point, and

602
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 3: I don't know what's going on with this offense. The

603
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:43,400
Speaker 3: run games not where it was last year. I think

604
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 3: the big takeaway though, is Baker Mayfield like somebody needed

605
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 3: to sit him down.

606
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 2: The Browns have a bad next week.

607
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 3: At this point, it's just ego and I think case

608
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 3: Ketam probably would have won this game. And I mean

609
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,040
Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield, it just he's a warrior. I got to

610
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 3: give him credit, but you can't have him out there

611
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 3: at this level. So it's just like I felt like

612
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 3: this was a winnable game for the brown One of

613
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 3: the reasons why I took the Ravens is because I

614
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 3: just felt like Baker would probably give this game away.

615
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 3: And he didn't necessarily give it away, but it's just's

616
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 3: he's not up to part health wise, so and I

617
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 3: think the Ravens were just able to do just enough

618
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 3: to get the cover and the win.

619
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's it's a really dismaying loss if you're

620
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 1: a Browns fan or Brown's backer. So to me, even

621
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 1: though the Ravens offense wasn't good, they were they did

622
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 1: play with the identity that we know they want to be.

623
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 1: This is Ravens football. This is all they want to win.

624
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 1: They'd rather, you know, do it a little more comfortably,

625
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,760
Speaker 1: but they want to smash mouth football, run it down

626
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 1: your throat, play some defense, stuff the run and win

627
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 1: one of these ugly twent Dilfer sort of low scoring games.

628
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 1: You know, right, this was Trent Dilfer's game, not Lamar

629
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 1: Jackson's game here. But that's what the Ravens are. The

630
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 1: problem is that's what the Browns think they are, and

631
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 1: the Browns clearly are not that. Right now, they ran

632
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 1: seventeen times for forty yards. This is supposed to be

633
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 1: a running team, supposed to be the best running team

634
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 1: in football. It's not going to cut it. And the

635
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 1: Ravens had twenty more plays. They ran forty three times,

636
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 1: not seventeen times, because that's how you get your identity.

637
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 1: They had fourteen more minutes of the ball. This is

638
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 1: a game where in a top division game, a rivalry game,

639
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 1: you got to know who you are. And the Ravens

640
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 1: look like the team that knew what they were, and

641
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 1: the Browns looked like a team that just even against

642
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 1: the team that knew what it was and still wasn't

643
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 1: very good at it, the Browns couldn't do anything about it.

644
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 1: Like the one scoring drive that had is where they remembered,

645
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 1: oh right, let's pass a little bit. That's where Baltimore

646
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 1: can get beat and then they just went right back

647
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 1: to not running successfully again. So it's a weird spot.

648
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 1: So the Browns, I don't know if I've ever seen

649
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:55,720
Speaker 1: this before. The Browns are in a bye week and

650
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 1: then their very next game is against the Ravens. Again,

651
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:00,480
Speaker 1: we talked about this before. It's very weird. I've never

652
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 1: seen a team that literally played two games in a

653
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 1: row against the same opponent. They go from November twenty

654
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 1: first to December nineteenth with no teams except the Ravens

655
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 1: on their schedule, so that's real weird. Baltimore has to

656
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 1: go to Pittsburgh next week while Cleveland is sitting at

657
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 1: home resting and then hosting the next game, so it'll

658
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,720
Speaker 1: be really interesting like that probably shaps up as a

659
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 1: pretty must win game for Cleveland once they get it again.

660
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 1: But do you remember ever seeing that before where we

661
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 1: got a team played twice in a row against the

662
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 1: same opponent.

663
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've never seen it. I've definitely seen where you've had.

664
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 3: I think you might have one opponent one week and

665
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 3: then you play them again in two weeks, But I've

666
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 3: never seen this.

667
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 2: This is really odd scheduling court.

668
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:48,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, by the way dishonorable stink of the week mentioned

669
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 1: goes to me one in fourteen on Picks in the

670
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 1: Action app today. But the good news is I'm still

671
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 1: alive for the NFC Wildcard. I'm right in the mix, guys,

672
00:32:57,280 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 1: I'm right there. I'm still out of the lions. I'm

673
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:03,000
Speaker 1: going to hang in there. You know, what can you

674
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 1: do but shake it off and you get back in

675
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 1: the action tomorrow. So let's hit the rest of Sunny's

676
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 1: Action and wrap up Week twelve. The Giants escaped with

677
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 1: an ugly thirteen to seven upset win over the Eagles.

678
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 1: Last year's first rounder Jalen Rieger dropped two touchdowns in

679
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 1: the final minute or otherwise Eagles could have pulled this one out.

680
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 1: Really every chance to win the game, but they had

681
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:28,959
Speaker 1: four turnovers to none. They had a nightmare game from

682
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts, three interceptions from him. So Giants get the

683
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 1: cover and the plus one sixty five win and way

684
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 1: under they probably could still be playing. They'd still be

685
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 1: under that one. There's not scoring either team that one.

686
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 1: The Bengals did to the Steelers what Pittsburgh has done

687
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 1: to them for decades. Demolished Pittsburgh forty one to ten,

688
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 1: dominant run game, great defensive performance. They just turn turn

689
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 1: things around from what Pittsburgh normally does.

690
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 2: Here.

691
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 1: Big Ben got annihilated this game, just under pressure all game.

692
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 1: Two interceptions, three sacks, minus fifteen point six EPA. That

693
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 1: was a bad one. Heeddy Bridgewater left hurt, but came

694
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 1: back and led the Broncos to an upset victory at

695
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 1: home twenty eight to thirteen over the Chargers. Justin Herbert

696
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 1: miserable day for him. Two interceptions, one in the end zone,

697
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:21,720
Speaker 1: another one that was a pick. Six Broncos unders nine

698
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:24,319
Speaker 1: to one in one on the season now, including six

699
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 1: to zero in Denver win. So keep an eye on

700
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:31,799
Speaker 1: that one. More bad quarterbacks. Cam Newton was horrendous for

701
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 1: the Panthers today. Two interceptions, five of twenty one throwing,

702
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:40,640
Speaker 1: and then he got benched. Dolphins win thirty three ten,

703
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 1: their fourth straight win. They got the Giants and the

704
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 1: Jets next. The Dolphins were one and seven and they

705
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,040
Speaker 1: have a real shot to get to seven and seven.

706
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:52,240
Speaker 1: They'd probably be a playoff team if they're in the NFC. Last,

707
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 1: and definitely leased a terrible AFC South team was barely

708
00:34:56,920 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 1: competitive against another very bad team and a toe really

709
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:03,120
Speaker 1: forgettable twenty one to fourteen loss as they follow the

710
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:05,360
Speaker 1: two and nine on the season and improve the draft position.

711
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:09,719
Speaker 1: That is your summary for both the Texans and the Jaguars,

712
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 1: two completely useless games with the exact same score in

713
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:16,920
Speaker 1: the exact same record, both them losing to the Jets

714
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 1: and the Falcons respectively. All right, let's hear a quick

715
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:23,360
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716
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00:36:57,719 --> 00:36:58,840
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747
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:02,000
Speaker 1: Let's get back to the show all right. Monday Night

748
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:06,279
Speaker 1: We've got to pick them in Washington, Seattle at Washington.

749
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 1: The total is out forty six and a half. Somehow,

750
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:12,360
Speaker 1: these teams are right on the cusp of the NFC

751
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 1: playoff race. If Washington wins, they tie for the seventh seed.

752
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 1: If Seattle wins, they move from the last team off

753
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:22,040
Speaker 1: the playoff picture. Graphic to one of the fourteen teams

754
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 1: in the playoff picture. Oh boy, we got a doozy here.

755
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 1: What do you think Seattle? They are Washington?

756
00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:31,879
Speaker 3: Well, this line, first things persentic. This line opened up

757
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 3: at minus two and a half. You were looking at that.

758
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 3: Obviously you had some sharp money hit Washington. But at

759
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 3: this current number, I don't know if I want to

760
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 3: be taken Washington. Washington really doesn't have a home full

761
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:49,719
Speaker 3: advantage at all. When you look at Pete Carroll and

762
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson, they do pretty well off the loss. They're

763
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:57,560
Speaker 3: twenty seven and fifteen and four sixty four percent one percentage.

764
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 3: So if you're playing trends, I think that's a good

765
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:03,719
Speaker 3: trend to play. But I just I don't want to

766
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:06,160
Speaker 3: play Seattle right now. The way Russell Wilson is playing

767
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:08,719
Speaker 3: right now, we don't know what's going on with his hand.

768
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:11,279
Speaker 3: His hand has been like a huge problem when you

769
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:15,400
Speaker 3: look at he just has one touchdown in his last

770
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:18,080
Speaker 3: nineteen possessions since he's come back from injury.

771
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:21,319
Speaker 2: The defense is really struggling. They gave up a four

772
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 2: hundred and thirteen.

773
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 3: Total yards to an Arizona Cardinals team without Kyler Murray,

774
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 3: without Deandrey Hockeys when Cole McCoy started. So, how can

775
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:33,640
Speaker 3: you back Seattle in the role at this spot? I

776
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:36,959
Speaker 3: think for me it's washing center pass. But I think

777
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 3: you're getting the worse of it if you take it here. Yeah,

778
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 3: it's a tough one. It's it's hard to get excited

779
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 3: about this game. These teams both feel like they're just

780
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 3: kind of fighting to stay on the very very tail.

781
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:50,759
Speaker 1: Fringe of the playoff hunt. It's just not going great.

782
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:53,919
Speaker 1: And I know that this sounds absolutely crazy, and I've

783
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 1: been a huge Russell Wilson backer for many years. Are

784
00:38:57,000 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 1: we positive that Seattle has the better quarterback right now

785
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:03,319
Speaker 1: in this matchup? Like Kayda Heineke has played pretty well

786
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 1: the last few weeks, and Wilson does not look right,

787
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:08,799
Speaker 1: like his hand is not good. They scored zero in

788
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:11,359
Speaker 1: thirteen points. The last two games since he came back

789
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:14,919
Speaker 1: from the injury. They've had seventeen points or last five

790
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 1: times already this season. So a Seattle game's a gun

791
00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 1: under in sixth straight. So I don't know. We're getting

792
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:23,759
Speaker 1: got a lot of points here and Seattle is not

793
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 1: playing that well. Heinikey is number one in completion percentage

794
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:31,960
Speaker 1: of expectation the last five games. Washington EPA per pass

795
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 1: is top seven, so they're actually moving the ball. Both

796
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 1: pass defenses are pretty bad in this game. Seattle's is

797
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 1: banged up now, Washington's been bad all season. So you

798
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:46,239
Speaker 1: want the quarterback that you trust, and that should be

799
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson. I just don't know how you can trust

800
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 1: Russ right now, the way that he's been looking. I

801
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:54,520
Speaker 1: don't know. It am absolutely crazy to think that I

802
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:58,280
Speaker 1: might trust Tyler Heinekee a little bit more than Russell Wilson.

803
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:01,560
Speaker 3: I agree with you. Like over the last two weeks,

804
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:06,240
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson is forty third among all quarterbacks in EPA

805
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 3: increation over expectation.

806
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 2: He's also forty third is success rate.

807
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:14,320
Speaker 3: He has just a thirty six percent success rate fifty

808
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 3: four percent completion percentage.

809
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 2: He's just not being.

810
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 3: Able to deliver the throws with his hand. Now, maybe

811
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:23,919
Speaker 3: another week might help that. Maybe if they could run

812
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 3: the ball, that that'll be something that can help Russell

813
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:30,760
Speaker 3: Wilson out a bit. I don't know how you trust

814
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:33,799
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson on the road in this situation. I do

815
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:35,760
Speaker 3: think they're gonna be able to find some success running

816
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 3: the ball on this Washington defense. They are just sixteenth

817
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:42,280
Speaker 3: in EPA for play and they are missing some guys.

818
00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:45,799
Speaker 1: Up front, so no one key matchup that I want

819
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:48,360
Speaker 1: to keep my eye on. And this is this is

820
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 1: like the opposite of the immovable for us, say, you know,

821
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 1: like I forget how that whole thing goes. This is

822
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:57,120
Speaker 1: the opposite of that. Seattle's offense rings dead last in

823
00:40:57,200 --> 00:41:00,759
Speaker 1: the third down over expectation, so compared to what you

824
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 1: would expect, Seattle is minus seven percent. They're worse in

825
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:09,600
Speaker 1: the NFL. But Washington's defense ranks dead last on third

826
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 1: down as well, and they are dead laster than Seattle.

827
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 1: Washington's defense is plus twelve percent third down of expectation. Like,

828
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 1: this team cannot get off the field, and we've seen

829
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 1: that in these recent weeks where Washington is hanging around

830
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:26,520
Speaker 1: and then can't close the job on late downs. So

831
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 1: third and fourth downs Washington defense is epa zero point

832
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 1: four to nine per play. That is a terrible, terrible

833
00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:35,920
Speaker 1: number like that would put you by far worse defense

834
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,560
Speaker 1: in the NFL. You can't be that bad, but the

835
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 1: Seahawks are that bad. Like something has to give. We

836
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 1: can't just keep repeating third downs forever either. Russell Wilson

837
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:48,960
Speaker 1: makes the plays, and normally that's where Russ is awesome

838
00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:52,200
Speaker 1: is on third downs. But this includes even the early

839
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:55,680
Speaker 1: games when he was great. So I think watch those

840
00:41:55,760 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 1: Seattle offensive third downs and see what gives there. Ken

841
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:02,480
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson come up with a play. You know, we

842
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:04,719
Speaker 1: know he loves to kind of scramble around and come

843
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 1: up with something. But I don't know if he can

844
00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:10,239
Speaker 1: do it anymore the way things are going. I had

845
00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:11,759
Speaker 1: a couple of props that I want to do on

846
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 1: this game. Do you have any pick on this game

847
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:14,879
Speaker 1: or are you mostly sitting this one out?

848
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:16,040
Speaker 2: Yeah? I'm sitting this one out.

849
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:18,719
Speaker 3: I just think there's too much a certainty with Seattle,

850
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:21,239
Speaker 3: and I think I would have taken Washington about a

851
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 3: week ago with the plus two and a half, but

852
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:25,520
Speaker 3: obviously the numbers moved, and we all know when it

853
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:28,520
Speaker 3: comes to the NFL, you're not going to beat this

854
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:31,560
Speaker 3: market long term if you're playing the worship it by

855
00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:32,399
Speaker 3: two and a half points.

856
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:35,160
Speaker 1: So yeah, I would lean Washington if you've got to

857
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 1: make a pick for a contest, But I'm not really

858
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:39,840
Speaker 1: interested in playing either side, not really interested in the total.

859
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:41,840
Speaker 1: Here's what I did come up with. I dug around

860
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:43,640
Speaker 1: for like an hour today trying to come up with

861
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:46,919
Speaker 1: something for our dear listeners and watchers need to pick.

862
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 1: Here's my two angles. Angle number one. Seattle's offense for

863
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:55,160
Speaker 1: the season is number one in DBA in the second quarter.

864
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,239
Speaker 1: Washington's defense for the season is number thirty in the

865
00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:02,560
Speaker 1: second quarter. So the Seattle money line second quarter only

866
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:05,920
Speaker 1: plus one ten and hope that Russell Wilson can at

867
00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:08,719
Speaker 1: least be healthy enough until halftime to get me a

868
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:11,759
Speaker 1: few points. So just the second quarter Seattle money line.

869
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 1: Here's my other one, Terry mclaur and I think you

870
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:16,719
Speaker 1: have a really big game in this game. Seattle's pass

871
00:43:16,760 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 1: defense very beatable, their cornerbacks are banged up. So I'm

872
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 1: gonna do Terry mclaur in one hundred yards and a

873
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 1: touchdown plus six thirty. He's done that four times already

874
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 1: this year. He's had four games out of ten with

875
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:32,600
Speaker 1: one hundred and of touchdown. Last year he had twolve targets,

876
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:36,279
Speaker 1: seven catches seventy seven yards against Washington. When he has

877
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 1: a good game, he has a really good game, like

878
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:40,959
Speaker 1: when him and Heineke get synced up, well, he tends

879
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 1: to really put up some numbers. So at plus six thirty,

880
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:46,359
Speaker 1: you know the four times already this year, that would

881
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:48,440
Speaker 1: imply like a plus one fifty, so the number is

882
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 1: pretty far off. Seattle's beatable. If you want an angle

883
00:43:52,120 --> 00:43:54,439
Speaker 1: on this game, I think those are my two best

884
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 1: angles for you. What do you think of either of those?

885
00:43:56,600 --> 00:43:58,359
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I like those. I definitely like those.

886
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 3: I like the Terry mclaurer one, just because we all

887
00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:03,400
Speaker 3: know Seattle's defense is struggling.

888
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 1: Now, all right, Well, hopefully you find some angle to

889
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 1: play there. We don't even get paid in ELI for

890
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:10,359
Speaker 1: this game, so it's it's a rough Monday night. Let's

891
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:12,480
Speaker 1: get to our Week thirteen hot read and get you

892
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 1: guys out of here.

893
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 2: Ice rights, ice cream.

894
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:21,799
Speaker 1: You guys know the drill. We're making our picks looking

895
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 1: ahead to get ahead of the lines, and Rahiem and

896
00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 1: I are both on the same side on our first pick.

897
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:30,319
Speaker 1: I think on this one, So give me your hot

898
00:44:30,360 --> 00:44:32,200
Speaker 1: read on a game that we've already alluded to a

899
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:33,040
Speaker 1: little bit earlier.

900
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:36,879
Speaker 3: I'm going with the New England Patriots. Look this New

901
00:44:36,880 --> 00:44:39,759
Speaker 3: England Patriots team they're rolling right now, and I think

902
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 3: the big problem with this Buffalo Bills team is Look,

903
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 3: they already lost to Darius White, so that's big. That's

904
00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:51,279
Speaker 3: the top cover corner. But right now, Josh Allen is

905
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:53,719
Speaker 3: just turning the ball over at will. The last thing

906
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 3: you want to do against this Patriots defense is turn

907
00:44:57,040 --> 00:44:59,680
Speaker 3: the ball over. And we all know Bill BELICHICKI craft

908
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:03,200
Speaker 3: the game plan better than pretty much anybody. I think

909
00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:05,480
Speaker 3: the Patriots are probably the best team in this division

910
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 3: right now. The Buffalo Bills, they don't have a great

911
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:12,800
Speaker 3: run game, Like when you look at their ability to

912
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:15,840
Speaker 3: run the ball there towards the Bob of the league

913
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:20,959
Speaker 3: and the Patriots, that's where the Patriots struggled. So the Patriots,

914
00:45:21,280 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 3: their past defense is one of the best in the league.

915
00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:27,440
Speaker 3: When you look at this Bills team, like whoever they beat,

916
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:31,520
Speaker 3: Like we've spoken about this before if it's not the Jets,

917
00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 3: if it's not the Saints, if it's not the Houston

918
00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:38,440
Speaker 3: Texas or the Washington football team or Mike Yanby, they

919
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 3: struggle to take the Patriots plus three.

920
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:43,839
Speaker 2: I imagine this line is going to go down, so

921
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:45,200
Speaker 2: it probably won't be there long.

922
00:45:45,640 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I'm still seeing even a couple of

923
00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:49,640
Speaker 1: plus three and a half, depending on if you want

924
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:51,759
Speaker 1: to get the juice on that. But I definitely want

925
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:53,560
Speaker 1: to get it before it drops full of field goal.

926
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 1: This is my hot read too, and normally if there's

927
00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 1: one we like, I just kind of chime in on it,

928
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:00,839
Speaker 1: but I'm not trying to. I'm making it my own

929
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 1: hot read too. So Patriots gave me the underdogs on

930
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:05,600
Speaker 1: the road. I'm gonna take the money line too. I

931
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 1: already put both them into the Action Network app Bellichick

932
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:12,280
Speaker 1: as an underdog twenty nine fourteen and two against the spread,

933
00:46:12,400 --> 00:46:15,839
Speaker 1: so sixty seven percent cover. He's won more than half

934
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 1: of the game's outright thirty seven percent ROI obviously a

935
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 1: lot of those with Brady, but hey, they've figured out

936
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:23,439
Speaker 1: their formula, they know what they're doing. More and more

937
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:26,840
Speaker 1: today in the NFL, we're getting these super duper pass

938
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:30,200
Speaker 1: heavy teams that are just like, eh, who needs to run?

939
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:33,239
Speaker 1: We won't run anymore. And we've seen the Patriots this

940
00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 1: year against the Chiefs, we saw them against the Bucks.

941
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:39,080
Speaker 1: The Bills offense is a lot like those. They just

942
00:46:39,120 --> 00:46:42,800
Speaker 1: want to throw, throw, throw all game, and the Patriots

943
00:46:42,840 --> 00:46:46,360
Speaker 1: defense is built against that. The secondary has been elite,

944
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 1: you know, j. C. Jackson has been awesome. They're getting

945
00:46:49,080 --> 00:46:51,160
Speaker 1: a lot of pass rush. The way you beat New

946
00:46:51,200 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 1: England is run the ball, and Buffalo can't run the ball,

947
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:56,719
Speaker 1: like you said, So this shapes up to me defensively

948
00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 1: like the same thing we've seen, you know, you talked

949
00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:01,920
Speaker 1: about it earlier. Isn't this the same formula that we've

950
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:05,360
Speaker 1: been watching Tennessee hurt New England today when they actually

951
00:47:05,440 --> 00:47:07,640
Speaker 1: ran the ball on them. They're just going to hold

952
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:10,040
Speaker 1: onto the ball long enough to keep doing it. But

953
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:13,120
Speaker 1: when the Patriots have played these other pass heavy teams

954
00:47:13,120 --> 00:47:15,840
Speaker 1: and the Bills are the pass heaviest team in the NFL,

955
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 1: it's not going well for them. So yeah, Belichick owns

956
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:24,000
Speaker 1: the Bills sixty two against the spread with the Patriots lifetime,

957
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:26,799
Speaker 1: So I love them in the spot. We know short

958
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:29,759
Speaker 1: road Dogs have been great Monday Night football. It's a

959
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:32,480
Speaker 1: really good game, really big game, so we'll want to

960
00:47:32,480 --> 00:47:35,120
Speaker 1: be watching that one. And yeah, I guess you and

961
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 1: I will be back talking more about this one next Sunday,

962
00:47:38,080 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 1: but I'm guessing that we will both be very much

963
00:47:41,200 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 1: in on New England. Don't wait around, though, because I

964
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 1: don't think you hit that plus three by the time

965
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:45,640
Speaker 1: that we get to see.

966
00:47:45,719 --> 00:47:47,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, that plus three won't be there at all.

967
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:49,680
Speaker 3: Probably you're going to see a lot of short money

968
00:47:49,719 --> 00:47:51,799
Speaker 3: on New Patriots this week.

969
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 2: Jump on New England now because that line will not

970
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:55,000
Speaker 2: be there.

971
00:47:55,640 --> 00:47:58,280
Speaker 1: So we are both on New England with our first

972
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:01,399
Speaker 1: hot read each. What is your second Week thirteen hot red?

973
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:08,960
Speaker 3: My second hot read is the Cincinnati Bengals LA Chargers

974
00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:12,400
Speaker 3: over fifteen and a half. This has already taking some money,

975
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:14,879
Speaker 3: but my model makes this closer.

976
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 2: To about fifty four. I think you're gonna see a

977
00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:17,000
Speaker 2: shootout here.

978
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:20,360
Speaker 3: You got two young quarterbacks who are just lighting it

979
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 3: up this season.

980
00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:25,080
Speaker 2: And look, I know the Bengals.

981
00:48:25,080 --> 00:48:27,560
Speaker 3: Their defensive statistics stay one thing they put them in

982
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:32,800
Speaker 3: the top ten and success rate. But this Chargers defense

983
00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:35,600
Speaker 3: is not really good right now. They're just twenty ninth

984
00:48:36,080 --> 00:48:39,640
Speaker 3: a success rate. They're twenty fourth in EPA for play.

985
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:43,000
Speaker 3: You're gonna see a shootout here because I think if

986
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:46,560
Speaker 3: either one of these teams goes down seven ten points,

987
00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:49,279
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna light it up. I don't see

988
00:48:49,960 --> 00:48:53,120
Speaker 3: the Chargers struggling the score in the ways that they

989
00:48:53,160 --> 00:48:56,000
Speaker 3: did against the Broncos today. As you mentioned earlier, the

990
00:48:56,000 --> 00:48:58,759
Speaker 3: Broncos are a classic under team. This is gonna be

991
00:48:58,760 --> 00:48:59,240
Speaker 3: a shootout.

992
00:48:59,239 --> 00:48:59,520
Speaker 2: I like this.

993
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:02,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a fun game too. I was looking at

994
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:05,440
Speaker 1: the Chargers laying the points here, possibly taking them as

995
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:08,560
Speaker 1: a hot read. I feel like the Chargers still strike

996
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 1: me as the better overall team. I'm not going to

997
00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:13,279
Speaker 1: take too much away from the Bengals blowing out the

998
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:15,440
Speaker 1: Steelers because we haven't really thought so highly of the

999
00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 1: Steelers all season long anyway, and you know we've seen

1000
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:20,160
Speaker 1: the Charges a couple times now. Kind of let go

1001
00:49:20,239 --> 00:49:22,399
Speaker 1: of the rope. That helps the over too, if they

1002
00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:24,920
Speaker 1: if the Chargers fall behind and they just start like

1003
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:27,879
Speaker 1: throwing it around, trying all these fourth downs, leaving short

1004
00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 1: fields for Cincinnati, it's a good way to hit the

1005
00:49:29,680 --> 00:49:32,879
Speaker 1: over too. So I like that one. On my other

1006
00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 1: hot read, I wanted to take the Eagles here. I

1007
00:49:35,719 --> 00:49:37,840
Speaker 1: do still like the Eagles, but I think by the

1008
00:49:37,880 --> 00:49:39,840
Speaker 1: time that folks listen to this, the six and a

1009
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:42,400
Speaker 1: half at the Jets is probably be gone. It's mostly

1010
00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:44,640
Speaker 1: gown already. But I do like that a lot. The

1011
00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:47,239
Speaker 1: Eagles didn't really scare me off too much. Today They're

1012
00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:49,359
Speaker 1: still running the ball well. The Jets still don't play

1013
00:49:49,360 --> 00:49:51,479
Speaker 1: any defense. If you see the six and a half,

1014
00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:54,520
Speaker 1: I still like it. If not, I'll go with the

1015
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:59,360
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals as a touchdown favorite in Chicago. I just

1016
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:01,920
Speaker 1: think that time to give a little respect to the Cardinals.

1017
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:04,600
Speaker 1: They're coming out of the bye week. I have to

1018
00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:08,040
Speaker 1: believe at this point after a month away, that we're

1019
00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 1: finally going to get Kyler Murray back, We're finally going

1020
00:50:10,239 --> 00:50:14,239
Speaker 1: to get Danver Hopkins back. And I like that they've

1021
00:50:14,280 --> 00:50:16,920
Speaker 1: had this whole month off. You know, last year we

1022
00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 1: saw the Cardinals melt down in the second half of

1023
00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:22,560
Speaker 1: the season because Kyler got hurt, came back too fast,

1024
00:50:22,600 --> 00:50:24,960
Speaker 1: and was never healthy again. So I know that we're

1025
00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:27,960
Speaker 1: a little nervous about Kyler returning from injury. I think

1026
00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:30,359
Speaker 1: the whole point of this month off is for us

1027
00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:32,120
Speaker 1: not to have to be nervous. I think they wanted

1028
00:50:32,200 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 1: him to really truly get healthy, and I think we

1029
00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:38,200
Speaker 1: should expect that he will be as opposed to Justin

1030
00:50:38,320 --> 00:50:41,440
Speaker 1: Fields probably back for this one, I assume, But like

1031
00:50:41,480 --> 00:50:44,840
Speaker 1: wearing a flat jacket with those ribs or Andy Dalton,

1032
00:50:45,280 --> 00:50:48,040
Speaker 1: we got the Bears coaching drama of whatever happened with that.

1033
00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:51,239
Speaker 1: You know, like they probably fire Matt and Neeggi if

1034
00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:53,920
Speaker 1: they lose on Thanksgiving, which they should have until the

1035
00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:57,360
Speaker 1: very last play. So I like the Cardinals here coming

1036
00:50:57,360 --> 00:51:00,320
Speaker 1: off of buye a week minus seven. This going to

1037
00:51:00,360 --> 00:51:02,279
Speaker 1: be a public spot. I'm sure the money's gonna come

1038
00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:04,800
Speaker 1: on Arizona, but I like them at a touchdown, so

1039
00:51:04,800 --> 00:51:07,040
Speaker 1: I'm gonna grab them before the line goes up. I

1040
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:08,840
Speaker 1: don't mind you if you can, if you like the

1041
00:51:08,840 --> 00:51:11,600
Speaker 1: Eagles and Colonels both, you can tease that and basically

1042
00:51:11,680 --> 00:51:13,719
Speaker 1: get those down to kind of pick them there. What

1043
00:51:13,760 --> 00:51:15,560
Speaker 1: do you think of the Eagles or Cardinals.

1044
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:18,880
Speaker 3: I'm not mad at the Cardinals. I just think for me,

1045
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:21,480
Speaker 3: there's a ton of uncertainty around the Cardinals. But I

1046
00:51:21,480 --> 00:51:23,320
Speaker 3: think this is more of a fade of the Bears,

1047
00:51:23,320 --> 00:51:25,759
Speaker 3: which I can I can never argue with the Fade

1048
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:28,719
Speaker 3: or the Bears, but there's a lot of uncertainty for

1049
00:51:28,840 --> 00:51:30,720
Speaker 3: me around this Cardinals team to be laying at seven

1050
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:33,520
Speaker 3: on the row. When it comes to the Jets, the

1051
00:51:33,600 --> 00:51:36,760
Speaker 3: Jets are a complete mess, so I have no problem

1052
00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:39,800
Speaker 3: fading of hair. The Eagles have been a juggernaut. Jets

1053
00:51:39,800 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 3: defense is really problematic, especially when you have a defensive

1054
00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:46,799
Speaker 3: court a guy who's a defensive coordinator coming in. The

1055
00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:49,400
Speaker 3: talent just isn't there. I think the Eagles will be

1056
00:51:49,440 --> 00:51:51,839
Speaker 3: a lot more focused next week, so I'm no problem

1057
00:51:51,880 --> 00:51:52,439
Speaker 3: laying to seven.

1058
00:51:52,800 --> 00:51:54,319
Speaker 1: How do you feel about the teaser on that one?

1059
00:51:54,360 --> 00:51:57,000
Speaker 1: You basically get them both down to like two teams.

1060
00:51:57,000 --> 00:51:58,239
Speaker 1: I just have to go out and win on the

1061
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:00,400
Speaker 1: road by more than a point. Does out where you

1062
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:02,200
Speaker 1: might tease or is that not the right number for you?

1063
00:52:02,440 --> 00:52:04,520
Speaker 3: I actually think it's the right number, but I try

1064
00:52:04,520 --> 00:52:06,680
Speaker 3: not to tease rowtems. But if you're gonna tease anybody,

1065
00:52:06,840 --> 00:52:08,840
Speaker 3: the Eagle should win this game, and so the Pardners,

1066
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:10,719
Speaker 3: So I'm not mad at teasing it was at all.

1067
00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, well and this this was the one week this

1068
00:52:12,800 --> 00:52:15,080
Speaker 1: and not the home teams finally struck back, So we'll

1069
00:52:15,080 --> 00:52:16,920
Speaker 1: see you know. We are hitting some of these wintery

1070
00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:19,280
Speaker 1: sort of games. Maybe this is where the home field

1071
00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:22,120
Speaker 1: comes back into play. We shall see you next week.

1072
00:52:22,400 --> 00:52:24,200
Speaker 1: That is going to wrap it up today for the

1073
00:52:24,200 --> 00:52:28,200
Speaker 1: Action Network podcast. Don't forget to subscribe and rate and

1074
00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:30,160
Speaker 1: review if you haven't yet, make sure to get the

1075
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 1: app as well. Stucking and Raybon back Wednesday night with

1076
00:52:33,640 --> 00:52:36,560
Speaker 1: their six pack NFL Betting Guide. Raheem and I are

1077
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:39,120
Speaker 1: back this Friday for our usual run through the slate.

1078
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Speaker 1: We'll preview a few big games. We'll hit the look

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Speaker 1: ahead for Raheem Palmer. I'm Brandon Anderson and this has

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Speaker 1: been the Action Numbered podcast. We are on to week thirteen.