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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay, and then Roun Auto with

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get

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Speaker 1: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Meanwhile, here in Washington, we are all focused on the

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Speaker 2: news that Bloomberg just exclusively broke the Supreme Court inadvertently today,

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Speaker 2: posting a copy of an opinion on its website that

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Speaker 2: would suggest the Court is poised to allow emergency abortions

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Speaker 2: in the state of Idaho. Joe, this is a big deal.

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Speaker 2: Not final yet, as this is not a formal issuing

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Speaker 2: of an opinion, but still suggests that the Court in

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Speaker 2: this case may be delivering a win for abortion rights.

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Speaker 3: That's right, and for Joe Biden the day before the

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Speaker 3: first presidential debate. The timing here is remarkable, Kaylee. We're

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Speaker 3: in the midst of a three day a tour here.

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Speaker 3: When it comes to opinions, we did expect and still

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Speaker 3: do to get more tomorrow, but we thought the Court

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Speaker 3: was done for the day. We got to this morning,

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Speaker 3: and this dropped a short time ago. Thanks to our

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Speaker 3: team at Bloomberg News and at Bloomberg Law bringing this

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Speaker 3: to us. Now, the question remains, once again, will the

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Speaker 3: Court do anything formal?

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Speaker 4: And we want to turn to.

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Speaker 3: June Grosso from Bloomberg Law, the host of Bloomberg Law.

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Speaker 4: Here on Bloomberg Radio and TV, and June, it's great

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Speaker 4: to see you here.

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Speaker 3: I suspect you didn't think we'd be talking about this

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Speaker 3: either after this morning's opinions were released. This is going

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Speaker 3: to lead to a whole investigation. We have no idea

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Speaker 3: how this was posted right right.

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Speaker 5: You know, it could have just been some administrative assistant

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Speaker 5: by mistake posted it and then took it back. I mean,

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Speaker 5: I'm sure there'll be an investigation into this, and hopefully

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Speaker 5: you'll get more information than you did on the political

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Speaker 5: leak of the Dobbs decision. But if you know what

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Speaker 5: we see is true, it's a huge decision and it

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Speaker 5: means and it also affects other states like Texas that

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Speaker 5: have similar laws. I mean, this case was so important

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Speaker 5: that the trial judge had issued a ruling putting this

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Speaker 5: law on hold and saying that you know, the emergency

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Speaker 5: procedures could go forward, and the Supreme Court said no,

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Speaker 5: they they put a stop to that, and then they

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Speaker 5: decided to take the case without it going to an

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Speaker 5: appellate court.

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Speaker 6: So that's how.

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Speaker 5: Important this is. And you know, it could show whether

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Speaker 5: or not the federal law is going to take the

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Speaker 5: place or supersede the state law, which is what the

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Speaker 5: Biden administration argued in this case. They said, if you're taking,

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Speaker 5: as Kelly said, you're taking Medicare funds, you have to

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Speaker 5: follow the Mtala law and that provides for emergency room

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Speaker 5: procedures of abortion if a woman's life is seriously at risk.

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Speaker 5: And during the oral arguments, Justice Kagan was really sort

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Speaker 5: of you know, I want to say, she was emphatic

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Speaker 5: about saying that, you know, you don't have to wait

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Speaker 5: until the woman's life is in jeopardy, is in threat,

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Speaker 5: in order to have this procedure. And it was very

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Speaker 5: the oral argument, you couldn't tell which way the court

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Speaker 5: was going to go. I mean, you knew that the

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Speaker 5: three liberals were going one way and the three very

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Speaker 5: conservatives were going the other way. But then the three

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Speaker 5: in the middle, Chief Justice Roberts, Justice Amy Cony Barrett,

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Speaker 5: and Justice Brett Kavanaugh, where were they? They were all

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Speaker 5: over the place.

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Speaker 2: Well, of course, we'll await finding out for sure who

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Speaker 2: the drafter of the final opinion is. But in what

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Speaker 2: was briefly posted online, they indicated that the majority is

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Speaker 2: going to dismiss this case as improvidently granted, which probably

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Speaker 2: relates to what you were just speaking to June, whether

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Speaker 2: the Court should have taken this up in the first place.

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Speaker 2: But this is a kind of a pattern I've noticed

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Speaker 2: to merge with recent opinions where the court doesn't seem

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Speaker 2: to necessarily be deciding the merits of the case, but

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Speaker 2: rather standing. Is was the case in the social media

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Speaker 2: Biden administration relationship ruling they made earlier this morning, and

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Speaker 2: in the other abortion really case, access to MiFi pristone,

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Speaker 2: which they did rule in favor of, they did so

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Speaker 2: on the grounds of standing. It doesn't seem that they're

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Speaker 2: necessarily deciding the merits around these abortion rates too.

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Speaker 5: You're right, throwing this out is improvidently granted is another

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Speaker 5: way to dispose of it, and it's because they're trying

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Speaker 5: to get you know, they're trying to get five votes

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Speaker 5: in order to decide the case, and in a lot

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Speaker 5: of these cases, the easiest way is to say there

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Speaker 5: was no standing. Now the Myfi Pristone case that really

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Speaker 5: there was no standing there. Everyone who saw that initially

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Speaker 5: said why do these doctors have the right to sue?

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Speaker 5: And it's still going to go. States are still trying

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Speaker 5: to sue over that. So in the mif of pristone case,

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Speaker 5: that was definitely no standing. But in the you know,

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Speaker 5: in the case today they found no standing and that

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Speaker 5: you know, they could have gone either way, so it's

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Speaker 5: an easier way for them to deal with it. But

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Speaker 5: what happens is the lower courts don't get guidance and

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Speaker 5: we don't get information as far as the public to

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Speaker 5: know where they stand on these issues. You know, how

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Speaker 5: far can the Biden administration go in correcting misinformation online?

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Speaker 7: Now?

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Speaker 5: We don't know that because the decision is off on

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Speaker 5: a procedural ground. And I had a professor I talked

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Speaker 5: to recently say that, you know, lawyers can find a

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Speaker 5: procedural reason for anything which is true. I can find

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Speaker 5: a procedural reason if you're looking for it, and they're.

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Speaker 1: Looking for it.

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Speaker 2: Seems yeah, all right. Gian Grosso, host of Bloomberg Law,

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Speaker 2: thank you so much for your instant analysis on this

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Speaker 2: breaking news story exclusive to Bloomberg. The Supreme Court poised

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Speaker 2: to allow emergency abortions in Idaho. We want to get

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Speaker 2: more reaction now with a special guest I'm pleased to

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Speaker 2: say who is joining us here in our Washington, d

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Speaker 2: C studio. Dana Nessel, the Attorney General of the state

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Speaker 2: of Michigan, is now joining us. Welcome to balance a power.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much for being here. While you're here

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Speaker 2: in Washington, could I just ask you first to about

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Speaker 2: your reaction to the news Bloomberg has broken today this

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Speaker 2: opinion that seems in certain who have been posted on

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Speaker 2: the website, but as a court ruling in favor of

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Speaker 2: abortion rights, it seems are poised to at.

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Speaker 6: Least well, you know, fortunately, in Michigan, in the wake

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Speaker 6: of Dobbs, you know, we had very restrictive laws that

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Speaker 6: were on the books that were unenforceable. But in twenty

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Speaker 6: twenty two, we passed the Reproductive Freedom for All ballot proposal,

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Speaker 6: which you know enshrined reproductive freedoms into our state constitution.

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Speaker 6: So we haven't been worried about this particular situation in

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Speaker 6: my state. But I've met with women in states with

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Speaker 6: very restrictive bands all over the country, and I can

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Speaker 6: tell you that women of reproductive age and the people

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Speaker 6: who love them all around the United States are probably

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Speaker 6: collectively signing some you know, a breath of relief right now,

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Speaker 6: because I mean, how incredibly scary it is to think

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Speaker 6: that you could be in this situation where you need

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Speaker 6: emergency medical care, you're facing the loss of an organ,

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Speaker 6: your fertility is at stake, and you know, you're literally

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Speaker 6: looking at potentially dying and having physicians have to, you know,

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Speaker 6: violate their hippocratic owth and say I can't treat you

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Speaker 6: because I'm afraid of going to jail for it. So

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Speaker 6: I think for women all across America, this is a victory.

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Speaker 6: If that is in fact an accurate assessment what was

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Speaker 6: on the website. It does give me some pause that

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Speaker 6: now this is the second time in a few years

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Speaker 6: that we're seeing something accidentally posted or distributed, and it

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Speaker 6: makes me wonder what's going on at the United States

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Speaker 6: Supreme Court right now. But you know, we've seen this

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Speaker 6: exponential rise in both maternal mortality as well as infant

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Speaker 6: mortality ever since the Dab's decision came out, and hopefully,

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Speaker 6: if this is a real ruling, from the court, it

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Speaker 6: will do something to curtail the number of deaths we've seen.

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Speaker 3: So are you encouraged then to see what is apparently

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Speaker 3: forthcoming from the court. And I wonder if you think

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Speaker 3: they should just come out with it today following the

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Speaker 3: ruling on myth of prison Stone maintaining access to the

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Speaker 3: abortion pill, or you discourage that both, to Kaylee's point,

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Speaker 3: earlier have been essentially rulings on standing.

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Speaker 6: Yeah. I have a theory about that. Yeah. I think

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Speaker 6: that these are not cases that the High Court wanted

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Speaker 6: to hear. I think they were sort of forced upon

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Speaker 6: them by incredibly conservative circuit courts of appeal that really

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Speaker 6: have forced the hand now of the United States Supreme Court.

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Speaker 6: And I've seen decision after decision where I don't think

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Speaker 6: that the justices wanted to rule on this particular case

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Speaker 6: at this particular time. I don't think that the majority

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Speaker 6: of justices by that I mean six of them on

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Speaker 6: the Supreme Court have an interest in restricting Second Amendment

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Speaker 6: related rights. They don't like in general the gun safety laws,

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Speaker 6: they don't like the use of mifipristom. But these are

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Speaker 6: poor vehicles that have come to them to allow them

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Speaker 6: to the restrict abortion rights or gun safety measures or

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Speaker 6: things of that nature. So what we're seeing is they

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Speaker 6: are finding other ways to dispose of these cases without

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Speaker 6: having a rule on the merits, and that allows them

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Speaker 6: the freedom in the future to say, well, we're not

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Speaker 6: contradicting a prior decision, we're not overturning any sort of precedent.

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Speaker 6: We got rid of that case on standing, and that's

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Speaker 6: what they're continuing to do.

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Speaker 2: But should the Court not have expected these kind of

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Speaker 2: challenges to ultimately reach them after they ruled and Dobbs

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Speaker 2: to essentially overturn the constitutional right to an abortion. It

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Speaker 2: was only inevitable that certain state laws or access to

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Speaker 2: certain procedures or medications we're going to have to be

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Speaker 2: called into question, just because of the uncertainty that ruling created.

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Speaker 6: Now, you would think so, and you would think that

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Speaker 6: that would be their thought as well. But I think

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Speaker 6: some of these cases are just so controversial and so

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Speaker 6: anathetical to public opinion. We have the Supreme Court in

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Speaker 6: a place where you know, we've never had such low

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Speaker 6: confidence or respect for this court, and they've been mired

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Speaker 6: in ethical scandals, and every time they issue a ruling

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Speaker 6: that is deeply unpopular with the public. They risk having

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Speaker 6: their integrity impugned more and more, and so I think

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Speaker 6: that might be part of the calculus with some of

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Speaker 6: these rulings as well. And again, because these are cases

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Speaker 6: that are being you know, essentially tossed on standing or

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Speaker 6: improvidently granted or something of that nature, it does still

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Speaker 6: leave room for future rulings where they can still continue

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Speaker 6: to chip away at reproductive rights or the rights of

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Speaker 6: people to have, you know, gun safety laws or other

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Speaker 6: things that are frankly very popular in America.

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Speaker 3: Let's talk about some more future rulings because the next

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Speaker 3: couple of days are going to be awfully important. As

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Speaker 3: we spend time with Michigan's Attorney General Dana Nessel. This year,

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Speaker 3: you charge sixteen people for falsely claiming to be elected

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Speaker 3: for Donald Trump in the twenty twenty election. We're expecting

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Speaker 3: a ruling on some of the charges level against January

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Speaker 3: six rioters, if we can call them that.

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Speaker 4: The idea of obstruction, which brings us.

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Speaker 3: Back to the Enron case, whether this is the same

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Speaker 3: thing as hiding paperwork when we talk about obstructing in

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Speaker 3: this case and official proceeding, what's the court going to

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Speaker 3: say about.

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Speaker 6: This, Well, it's hard to know what they're going to say,

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Speaker 6: but it's clear what the January sixth rioters we're trying

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Speaker 6: to do, and it's clear I think as well, what

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Speaker 6: the former President of the United States was trying to

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Speaker 6: encourage them to do. We have seen obviously through the

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Speaker 6: January sixth Committee testimony and of course the discovery in

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Speaker 6: cases all over the United States, well, I should say

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Speaker 6: swing states, especially including my own, that there was a

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Speaker 6: concerted effort to undermine the election, and to do so

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Speaker 6: by making sure that Congress could not meet and could

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Speaker 6: not properly communist.

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Speaker 4: Law broad enough to apply. Though in this case, you.

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Speaker 6: Know, I guess we're going to have to see what

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Speaker 6: the court says, but I think that it has to

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Speaker 6: be and it should be, and we certainly have to

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Speaker 6: make certain that we have laws in place that specifically

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Speaker 6: indicate right, that is, it is improper and it is

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Speaker 6: illegal to disrupt that type of a proceeding, because if so,

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Speaker 6: I mean, if we're not going to say that what

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Speaker 6: they did was illegal in this set of circumstances, how

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Speaker 6: are we going to continue to administer elections because this

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Speaker 6: is part of the election process.

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Speaker 2: Well, and of course we're still relitigating what happened during

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Speaker 2: the election process of twenty twenty both in the immediate aftermath,

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Speaker 2: what was happening at polling centers with fake electors, for example,

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Speaker 2: or even on January sixth of twenty twenty one. How

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Speaker 2: concerned are you specifically in the state of Michigan, which,

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Speaker 2: as you say, is going to be a critical swim

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Speaker 2: state that could be one of the deciding factors in

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Speaker 2: the outcome about elections security in this cycle in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty four.

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Speaker 6: Now one of my biggest concerns, and I think this

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Speaker 6: involves all of the many Trump cases that have been pending,

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Speaker 6: many of them of course put on hold because of

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Speaker 6: the Trump immunity case, you know, And this goes to

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Speaker 6: many of the cases that were charged in Michigan as well,

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Speaker 6: and there are a lot. It's not just the false

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Speaker 6: slate of Elector's case. We have a variety of cases

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Speaker 6: that are relevant to efforts to try to overturn the

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Speaker 6: election in Michigan in twenty twenty Those cases have moved

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Speaker 6: forward at just a snail's pace, and as a result,

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Speaker 6: here we are, four years later, we're going into yet

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Speaker 6: another presidential election. And we have not seen the cases

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Speaker 6: from twenty twenty disposed yet. The courts have you know, really,

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Speaker 6: you know, I mean, there's a German after a German

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Speaker 6: on these cases. It's taking a very long time for

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Speaker 6: courts to issue rulings. And I'm worried about the impact

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Speaker 6: it's going to have because one of the things about

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Speaker 6: enforcing the law is ensuring deterrence against people continuing to

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Speaker 6: engage in that kind of illegal activity, which again is

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Speaker 6: so detrimental to our democracy as a whole. So I

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Speaker 6: am worried with the Trump cases not moving forward before

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Speaker 6: the election, with a lot of our state cases not

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Speaker 6: going to be completely disposed of before the election, that

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Speaker 6: it would be sending the wrong message to people that

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Speaker 6: the people weren't held accountable when they did this four

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Speaker 6: years ago, So maybe you won't be held accountable if

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Speaker 6: you engage in the same activity now in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 3: We just can't have that, Madam Attorney General, Our listeners

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Speaker 3: and viewers should know that you're the first openly LGBTQ

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Speaker 3: statewide elected official in the state of Michigan. Might be

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Speaker 3: even more remarkable to learn the you're only the second nationwide,

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Speaker 3: which is remarkable. In twenty twenty four, another remarkable statistic

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Speaker 3: is the thousands of military veterans who were kicked out

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Speaker 3: of the service pardon now apparently from Joe Biden for

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Speaker 3: being kicked out on the former military ban on gay sex.

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Speaker 3: Is your reaction, good job, mister president, or what took

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Speaker 3: so long?

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Speaker 7: Well?

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Speaker 6: You know, look, I think that President Biden is doing

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Speaker 6: everything in his power to ensure that LGBTQ people are

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Speaker 6: protected in this country, and he's done that for many years.

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Speaker 6: I think people forget that when Barack Obama took office,

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Speaker 6: he was not in support of same sex marriage, and

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Speaker 6: really why that changed, in large part was because of

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Speaker 6: the urging of his Vice president, Joe Biden. He was

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Speaker 6: the first one to say it out loud and really

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Speaker 6: apply pressure to President Obama in that regard. So I

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Speaker 6: think just as this is continued theme of you have

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Speaker 6: one candidate for president or incumbent who supports the LGBTQ

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Speaker 6: community and Donald Trump who wants to set us back thirty, forty,

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Speaker 6: even fifty years.

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Speaker 3: Come back and see us next time you're in Washington.

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Speaker 3: It's great to have you at the desk today on

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 4: Michigan's a turn.

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Speaker 3: General Dana Nessel, we thank you for being with us.

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Speaker 3: So the fastest show in politics. A lot more ahead.

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Speaker 3: Live from Washington, This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroun

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Speaker 1: Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

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Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 2: Thirty Here in Washington, where we are just dissecting an accident.

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Speaker 2: It seems related to the Supreme Court's website today. The

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Speaker 2: Supreme Court just out saying that the opinion on abortion

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Speaker 2: the emergency Idaho abortion case was inadvertently posted earlier today.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Law of course saw it when that happened and

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Speaker 2: found that, according to the copy opinion that was on

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Speaker 2: the website for a brief period of time, the Court

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Speaker 2: is poised to allow for emergency abortions in the state

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Speaker 2: of Idaho.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll see if we actually get a ruling that

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Speaker 3: follows this. We thought the Supreme Court was done today

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Speaker 3: their work. Two official rulings this morning, Kayley, we could

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Speaker 3: get more tomorrow, maybe something drops in our lap. Of course,

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Speaker 3: if that happens on this day, you'll hear about it

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Speaker 3: on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 4: TV and radio.

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Speaker 3: The question is, did somebody do this on purpose? Was

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Speaker 3: it an accident? Inadverton would suggest as much. Will there

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Speaker 3: be an internal investigation that leads to nowhere like the

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Speaker 3: leak of Dobbs. All these things have yet to be answered,

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Speaker 3: but it sure looks like good news for abortion activists

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Speaker 3: and for Democrats. And we're joined at the table right

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Speaker 3: now by the senior spokesperson for the DNC, Hannah Muldavin.

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Speaker 4: Didn't think we'd be talking about this today, but welcome

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Speaker 4: to the table. It's great to see you.

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Speaker 3: What does this mean for democratic messaging the day before

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Speaker 3: what could be the most important presidential debate of the cycle.

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Speaker 8: Well, thank you for having me, and I want to

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Speaker 8: make it very clear why we're even talking about this

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Speaker 8: right now, and that's because the state of abortion rights

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Speaker 8: in our country is because of Donald Trump. When he

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Speaker 8: was elected, he bragged about electing three conservative justices and

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Speaker 8: overturning Roe v. Way and because of that, we see

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Speaker 8: a dire state in our country for women of reproductive

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Speaker 8: age twenty one states in counting where women don't have

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Speaker 8: access to reproductive freedom that they've enjoyed for fifty years.

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Speaker 8: One in three women of reproductive age can't receive that

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Speaker 8: care that they need. And if Donald Trump wins in November,

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Speaker 8: it's only going to be more of that. And so

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Speaker 8: the fact that we're even talking about this today and

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Speaker 8: that women's rights have been stripped away is because of

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Speaker 8: Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: And yet this court opinion would suggest, or the copy

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Speaker 2: that was briefly posted would suggest, as their methipristone ruling did,

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Speaker 2: that they aren't further taking away rights. Potentially with these

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Speaker 2: decisions they allowed mithipristone access to maintain. They are allowing

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Speaker 2: in emergency situations in which the stability of the mother

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Speaker 2: prevent would be risked without having an abortion to go forward.

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Speaker 2: Is this, in some sense at least taking away a

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Speaker 2: talking point as we get farther and farther from.

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Speaker 8: Dobs, I think when we look to what's at stake

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Speaker 8: in November and access to abortion, those stats I just

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Speaker 8: mentioned show how many women are already being impacted. Right

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Speaker 8: they go to the emergency rooms for this access and

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Speaker 8: some of them are turned away. What we're seeing is

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Speaker 8: that women are fighting back. Americans are fighting back. Nine

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Speaker 8: out of ten support what we saw today if that

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Speaker 8: ruling ends up being what the Supreme Court puts out,

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Speaker 8: but it takes away nothing. What we see is Donald

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Speaker 8: Trump who has a plan to continue to threaten abortion rights.

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Speaker 8: And then in contrast, you see a president and Joe

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Speaker 8: Biden and a vice president and Kamala Harris who feel

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Speaker 8: the exact opposite. They want women and Americans to have

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Speaker 8: freedom of reproductive rights, to have freedom in our democracy.

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Speaker 8: And Joe Biden himself said he would he wants to

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Speaker 8: restore Roe v.

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Speaker 9: Wade.

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Speaker 8: So I think when we look at what abortion means

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Speaker 8: and abortion rights mean for women this cycle, it couldn't

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Speaker 8: be clearer who stands with them and who stands against

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Speaker 8: taking away their access to this and their freedoms.

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Speaker 3: You're bringing us some very carefully crafted messaging right now,

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Speaker 3: and I don't doubt that you believe everything you're saying,

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Speaker 3: but you're a professional. Joe Biden's got to go into

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Speaker 3: the Lions then to deliver this message tomorrow night to

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Speaker 3: see up for this job. He's up at Camp David tomorrow.

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Speaker 3: Do you have a line to the president.

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Speaker 4: What do you expect him.

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Speaker 8: To say, I wouldn't imagine to speak for the president,

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Speaker 8: but what I can say is that it's been four

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Speaker 8: years since Americans have seen Joe Biden and Donald Trump

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Speaker 8: on a debate stage. A lot has happened in those

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Speaker 8: four years. We just mentioned women's rights being taken away.

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Speaker 8: Donald Trump has been impeached twice and is now a

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Speaker 8: convicted felon on thirty four counts. What Joe Biden needs

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Speaker 8: to do is speak directly to the American people about

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Speaker 8: what he's done so really fought for the working class.

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Speaker 8: The economy, the fallback from COVID was really softened and

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Speaker 8: actually done really well under President Biden. Right, more than

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Speaker 8: fifteen million jobs created. Joe Biden actually took on big

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Speaker 8: Pharma for the American people to lower cost of prescription

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Speaker 8: drug prices. So I think that Joe Biden is prepared.

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Speaker 8: He won two debates against Donald Trump before, and he

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Speaker 8: can run on his record and what he wants to do,

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Speaker 8: which is make sure that every American has a fair shot.

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Speaker 2: Well, as we talk about running on the record or

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Speaker 2: touting policy that he has been able to undertake during

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Speaker 2: his administration, is it not problematic for messaging purposes? And

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Speaker 2: for the party at large that that has the potential

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Speaker 2: to get lost in the analysis of just his performance

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Speaker 2: and the kind of energy he showed as an eighty

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Speaker 2: one year old president. Can the policy actually get through

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Speaker 2: to the voter who is only concerned with whether or

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Speaker 2: not he is showing his age and appearing mentally acute.

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Speaker 8: There's going to be a clear contrast that Americans will

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Speaker 8: see on Thursday on the debate stage, and it'll be

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Speaker 8: against a president who cares for them, who has passed

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Speaker 8: policies that will lower prices for them, who's continuing to

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Speaker 8: fight inflation. Right, the Democrats in Congress and Joe Biden

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Speaker 8: passed the Inflation Reduction Act. No Republican voted for that.

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Speaker 8: So this is a party and a president who is

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Speaker 8: where he needs to be on the issues. And they'll

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Speaker 8: then see Donald Trump, who's all about himself, revenge and retribution.

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Speaker 8: I think it will be very clear on that debate

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Speaker 8: stage what the two future visions of the country will

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Speaker 8: look like. And I think Americans will see a president

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Speaker 8: in Joe Biden who is fighting for them and one

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Speaker 8: and Trump who is fighting for himself.

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Speaker 3: When's the DNC going to start calling out Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: for his mental acuity.

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Speaker 8: I think that I don't speak. I think that when

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Speaker 8: you look at Donald Trump's rallies and you see what

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Speaker 8: he is saying, he doesn't make sense. He is saying

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Speaker 8: things that aren't true.

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Speaker 10: Right.

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Speaker 8: We even saw this on January sixth with the Big Lie.

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Speaker 8: He is pushing forward things that are not factually accurate.

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Speaker 8: And Americans are going to be able to see that,

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Speaker 8: maybe for one of the first times, as we're waking

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Speaker 8: up to the fact that there's an election in November.

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Speaker 8: They're going to see that on the debate stage, and

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Speaker 8: they're going to see the opposite in Joe Biden, we believe.

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Speaker 4: So.

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Speaker 2: Is Joe Biden's job tomorrow night to be a live

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Speaker 2: fact checker of Donald Trump?

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00:22:58,400 --> 00:22:58,960
Speaker 7: Can he do that?

441
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 8: Joe Biden's job is to show what he's been doing

442
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 8: for the American people, which is the contrast to what

443
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:08,199
Speaker 8: President Trump will be doing. President Trump is going to

444
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 8: do what he does. I know there are specific rules

445
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,200
Speaker 8: about this debate that have been agreed upon by both parties,

446
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,440
Speaker 8: But what Joe Biden needs to do is make sure

447
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,360
Speaker 8: he knows what he's done, talk about what he's delivering

448
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 8: for Americans, the freedom that Americans can really expect under

449
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,919
Speaker 8: a second administration and the way those freedoms will be

450
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 8: taken away if Trump is elected again.

451
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,360
Speaker 2: All right, Hannah, great to have you here in studio.

452
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,359
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining us, Hannimal David, a

453
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 2: senior spokesperson for the DNC, Great to have you. And

454
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 2: of course we're all looking forward to the debate tomorrow night,

455
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 2: and as we do so, we want to get a

456
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 2: Republican perspective in this conversation as well, and bring in

457
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor and Republican strategist and partner at Stone

458
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:51,199
Speaker 2: Court Capital, Rick Davis, who is now with us. So Rick,

459
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 2: I'll just begin with the same question I just ended

460
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 2: on with Hannah. The idea of Joe Biden's job tomorrow night.

461
00:23:57,840 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 2: Is it pitching his vision for the future of the

462
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,639
Speaker 2: kind or is it calling out to actual inaccuracies that

463
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:04,520
Speaker 2: may be spouted by Donald Trump.

464
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 11: Yeah, I would say certainly not the latter. If he

465
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:14,399
Speaker 11: spends his time tomorrow night correcting the facts on Donald Trump,

466
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 11: then nobody's going to have a sense of what his

467
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:21,639
Speaker 11: future aspirations are for the country and what he brings

468
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 11: to the table. I think job number one for Joe

469
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:29,360
Speaker 11: Biden's competence. That's the issue that is framing people's opinion

470
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,200
Speaker 11: of him. Is he up to the job? Can't he

471
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:36,400
Speaker 11: handle another four years personally? So that vibrancy needs a show,

472
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 11: and it needs a show in a way that's a showstopper.

473
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 11: Secondarily to that, he's going to have to convince the

474
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 11: American public that he can handle the economy. Right now,

475
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 11: Donald Trump wins decisively on who is the best able

476
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 11: to handle the economy, and the economy is still the

477
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:55,919
Speaker 11: number one issue to most voters. And so if he

478
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 11: can accomplish those two tasks, job done, get off the stage,

479
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:02,119
Speaker 11: call it a victory, and get on with prosecuting the

480
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 11: rest of campaign. If he fails in either of those two,

481
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:08,159
Speaker 11: he may have done an enormous amount of damage to

482
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 11: his campaign.

483
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 3: I'm fascinated by your experience when it comes to debate prep.

484
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 4: Rick. Bring us inside the room.

485
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:18,680
Speaker 3: You've got what just over twenty four hours today when

486
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:22,119
Speaker 3: we talk about these mock debates, someone up there playing

487
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 3: Donald Trump. He's got advisors. In the first couple of

488
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,119
Speaker 3: rows here, you've been in that room.

489
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,879
Speaker 4: Is it your job to shake up the candidate. Do

490
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 4: you yell at the candidate?

491
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,400
Speaker 3: What do you do to try to simulate the worst

492
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 3: case scenario for tomorrow night.

493
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 11: Well, certainly it's a different approach between Donald Trump and

494
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 11: Joe Biden. Yes, you wouldn't have to yell at Donald

495
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 11: Trump because Joe Biden highly likely isn't going to be

496
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 11: doing any yelling. But that does apply to Joe Biden

497
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,720
Speaker 11: and his debate prep, and Biden's having much more traditional

498
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 11: debate prep where he's up there on the stage with

499
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,920
Speaker 11: a counterpart that's representing doll Trump and going through questions.

500
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 11: The number one thing is, you know, you try to

501
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:08,720
Speaker 11: hone in on these you know, few key messages that

502
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 11: the candidate has to get out there in the public

503
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,439
Speaker 11: during the course of the ninety minutes. And and some

504
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,880
Speaker 11: of them are you know, interesting stories to tell or

505
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 11: one liners both to push back on Donald Trump. We remember,

506
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 11: you know, very well the first debate where he's you know,

507
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,159
Speaker 11: just told him to shut up, and regardless of what

508
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,160
Speaker 11: else he did, that sort of stuck with everybody. And

509
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 11: and there these are scripted lines. It's very little improvisation

510
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 11: happens behind the podium in the middle of a debate.

511
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:40,440
Speaker 11: So they're trying to wards those kinds of things out.

512
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 11: And yeah, probably murder board Joe Biden a little bit.

513
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 4: On Donald Trump's.

514
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 11: Side, it's totally the opposite. I wouldn't be surprised that

515
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 11: he doesn't go out and get nine holes in before

516
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 11: the debate sometime tomorrow.

517
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 2: Rick, we just have about a minute left with you,

518
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 2: But would also like you to weigh in on how

519
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg reporting today that suggests the Supreme or it

520
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 2: is poised to allow for emergency cases abortion in the

521
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:07,439
Speaker 2: state of Idaho according to something that was inadvertently posted

522
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 2: on their website, an inadvertently posted opinion. Who does that

523
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:14,200
Speaker 2: serve better in the debate on Thursday? Does it take

524
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 2: away the talking point from Joe Biden.

525
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:20,359
Speaker 11: Yeah, No, I think it's a victory lot for Joe Biden.

526
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 11: He can stir up his supporters by saying, you know

527
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:29,639
Speaker 11: that they adequately defended the reproductive rights and and and

528
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 11: and the federal role in this. I think it does

529
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,120
Speaker 11: showcase a little bit of what Donald Trump doesn't want

530
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:38,199
Speaker 11: to have to deal with, which is is a national

531
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 11: law around abortion necessary either way how you look at it,

532
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 11: right to choice or right to life, and and and

533
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 11: any attention to abortion, especially in a debate, probably in

534
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:56,439
Speaker 11: norse to the benefit of the Democratic candidate, because we

535
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 11: know from the pulling that a vast majority UH support

536
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 11: choice under certain sets of circumstances, and Biden's ability to

537
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:07,159
Speaker 11: manage that issue is pretty well honed.

538
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 3: That's Rick Davis, and he'll be with us tomorrow night

539
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:14,120
Speaker 3: as part of our special debate coverage here on Bloomberg

540
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 3: TV and Radio. It'll start eight pm Washington Time. Big

541
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 3: thanks to Rick Bloomberg Politics contributor. Former Congressman Kevin Brady's

542
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:23,400
Speaker 3: up next, Only on Bloomberg.

543
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

544
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:34,160
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Evocarplay and thenroun

545
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,400
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

546
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:41,480
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

547
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 2: Welcome to Balance Off Hour on Bloomber TV and Radio

548
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 2: Life from Washington. While we are still in the middle

549
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 2: of a twenty twenty four election cycle and very focused

550
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 2: on that already, the conversation is beginning to turn toward

551
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 2: twenty twenty to five, specifically because that is the year

552
00:28:57,120 --> 00:29:00,200
Speaker 2: in which the tax cuts, the twenty seventeen tax cutsunder

553
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 2: the Trump administration will expire and be up for debate again,

554
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 2: which is starting the whole argument already. This is something

555
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 2: we spoke with Congresswoman Gwen Moore from Wisconsin, a Democrat

556
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 2: who sits on the House Ways and Means Committee, about

557
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:16,239
Speaker 2: yesterday and the idea that revenues went up when that

558
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 2: tax reform was passed. This is what she said on paper.

559
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 7: Revenues went up, but not for long because those revenues

560
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 7: were used to buy back stop and other sort of

561
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 7: unproductive things, and so ultimately it did not contribute to

562
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 7: any kind of revenue growth, and we still had the

563
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 7: two trillion dollar debt, a deficit paid for by debt.

564
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 3: To talk with us more about this, we're joined by

565
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 3: man who used to chair the House Ways and Means Committee.

566
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 3: That would be former Congressman Kevin Brady, former congressman and

567
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:56,920
Speaker 3: now a spokesman for the Alliance for Competitive Taxation.

568
00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 4: Great to see you back at the tanks for having me.

569
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 3: How do you answer these criticisms we heard about the

570
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 3: ballooning deficits that making tax cuts.

571
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 4: Permanent would create.

572
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 3: This is from Maya McGuinness, and we tend to trust

573
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 3: her work when you look at these numbers, Are we

574
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 3: looking at this the right way?

575
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 12: You know, I don't think so. I love serving with

576
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 12: Glenn and Ways and Means Committee, but I think she's

577
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 12: got some bad information. It was just the opposite. There

578
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 12: was a different in revenues initially as we did those

579
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:28,760
Speaker 12: rate cuts, but then they ballooned in a big way,

580
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 12: both generally because the economy was doing so much better,

581
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 12: shot up full percentage point right off the bat. We

582
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 12: saw revenues come back from overseas, reinvest in the US,

583
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 12: and paychecks outgrew inflation by nine percent. So families were

584
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 12: getting ahead in a big way. But we've recovered that

585
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 12: plus more. For example, the corpor ratings, you know, we

586
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 12: lowered it significantly from thirty five to twenty one percent.

587
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 12: We're generating more revenue today at the lower rate than

588
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 12: at the higher rate. Why investments, economic growth happening in

589
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 12: the US rather than overseas. And so yeah, we've seen

590
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 12: significant revenue growth. The problem is Washington spending faster than

591
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 12: even that growth can sustain. And that's the big challenge.

592
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 2: Well, so on that challenge, which I'm sure creates a

593
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 2: challenge for you, as you're pitching for lower tax rates,

594
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 2: do you simultaneously have to have the conversation, if you

595
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 2: lower taxes, you have to cut X, Y, and Z,

596
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 2: knowing that none of those things are likely to be

597
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 2: entitlements like Social Security or medicare. So what do you

598
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 2: suggest is the pay for Yeah?

599
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 12: So I so here's my thought. One lots changed in

600
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 12: twenty seventeen. Debt and deficits have risen a lot for

601
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 12: good reason. But people forget the original tax cuts we

602
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 12: did in twenty seventeen was five and a half trillion

603
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 12: dollars in tax cuts. We raised an offset for trillion

604
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 12: dollars of it in that bill the present science, So

605
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 12: we paid for seventy two percent of it right at all,

606
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,720
Speaker 12: plus these added revenue. So I always say, you know,

607
00:31:56,760 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 12: the question isn't do the tax cuts pay for themselves?

608
00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 12: But when and if growth continues. We've recouped much of

609
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 12: it already I think it will now next year. There's

610
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 12: about I'm throwing a lot of numbers, but seven trillion

611
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:15,600
Speaker 12: dollars total of tax cuts to extend. Almost all those

612
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 12: are on workers and small businesses apart on businesses as

613
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 12: separate from that, they extend the reforms been twenty seventeen,

614
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 12: they generate another three trillion paid for as the office,

615
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 12: So they have to find a way to Yeah, exactly right.

616
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 12: So the question is what do we leave behind, what

617
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 12: do we prioritize, What other reforms do we do to

618
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 12: do that? And what we looked for are reforms that

619
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 12: would allow us to lower rates by simplifying, consolidate, reforms

620
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 12: that would allow us to grow those pro growth provisions

621
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 12: the corporate For example, businesses paid for about eighty percent

622
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 12: of their own tax cut, but they wanted a newer vehicle,

623
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 12: like buying a new car, You know what I mean,

624
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 12: there's a cost to it. It's more efficient, it's more effective,

625
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 12: it gets you farther. Same thing with the new tax code.

626
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 12: So lawmakers there a big challenge will be deciding what

627
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 12: do we continue in for how long? How do we

628
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 12: offset some, if not all, of those costs.

629
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 3: Well, as you said it earlier, it's not about making

630
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 3: the tax cuts permanent, it's about making them better.

631
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:21,960
Speaker 4: So when Donald Trump stands.

632
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 3: Up at the podium tomorrow night and he's talking to

633
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 3: CEO's business leaders who are wary about inflation, who are

634
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 3: wary about ballooning deficits.

635
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 4: How does he make the case.

636
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 12: Well, I think it's pretty easy for him because he's

637
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,719
Speaker 12: already got the numbers in hand. After we did the

638
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 12: tax cuts, inflation stayed low, wages grew, the economy grew

639
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 12: in a big way. That will extending locking in those

640
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 12: rates for families and businesses is really smart for the economy.

641
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 12: I think he should focus on that and any other

642
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 12: economic ideas he has, because I think it's going to

643
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 12: be a big part of that debate in the election.

644
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 12: I mean, inflation is still pretty cruel, you know, cost wise.

645
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 12: Businesses want to be able to compete win around the world,

646
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 12: including on main street, and so I hope both those

647
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:16,239
Speaker 12: candidates lay out their economic vision because it's I think

648
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:18,240
Speaker 12: it's going to be a big part of decision making

649
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:18,880
Speaker 12: in November.

650
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 2: Well, and do they have to be specific and decisive

651
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:23,239
Speaker 2: in doing so. It was just two weeks ago that

652
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:25,400
Speaker 2: Donald Trump was here in Washington and part meeting with

653
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,319
Speaker 2: CEOs at the Business Roundtable, where our reporting suggests he

654
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:31,239
Speaker 2: floated the idea of a twenty percent corporate tax rate

655
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 2: because it's a round number. He then told Congress, potentially

656
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 2: you replace tax revenue with tariff revenue and then said

657
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 2: the campaign, at least in the aftermath, said that was

658
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 2: just something he floated. It's just a suggestion. Is it

659
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:47,280
Speaker 2: time for specific policy proposals versus floating ideas?

660
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 12: So I think the answer is soon. You know, November's coming,

661
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 12: people are paying attention, and so I think you know,

662
00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:56,280
Speaker 12: his campaign said, look, he's floating ideas. He will flesh

663
00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:58,799
Speaker 12: this out if he wants to go down that path.

664
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 12: So I think at some point, yeah, voters, because he

665
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:03,799
Speaker 12: raised that idea, I'm gonna want to hear how it

666
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 12: works and how it impacts them. I know, for me,

667
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 12: you know, tariffs are taxes. You know, they drive up prices,

668
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 12: they slow the economy, They tend to benefit a few

669
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:19,239
Speaker 12: and punish a lot, and they almost always ignite retaliation

670
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 12: against our US farmers, our manufacturers, our workers in a

671
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 12: big way. So I always advise candidate steer away from tariffs,

672
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 12: you know, I mean, go for growth, because you're incentivizing innovation,

673
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 12: manufacturing research here in the US. That's what makes his competitive.

674
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:38,239
Speaker 12: That's what the Alliance for Competitive Taxation is focused on,

675
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 12: keeping America the best place to do that new manufacturing research,

676
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 12: low corporate So we can compete with against China in

677
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:51,360
Speaker 12: other countries. Yeah, and incentivized innovation because the country that

678
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:53,400
Speaker 12: wins that race kind of wins the future.

679
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:55,840
Speaker 3: You sound like an old fashioned Republican Congress, you know,

680
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 3: I hope.

681
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:57,399
Speaker 4: So now in.

682
00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:00,760
Speaker 3: Washington, are you helping to advise or steer the RNC

683
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 3: or the Trump campaign on this.

684
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 12: So to the point that I can be helpful, I

685
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 12: want to be you know, obviously people want to know

686
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 12: what did we do, why did we do it, what

687
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,720
Speaker 12: performed you know what I mean? What would be the advice,

688
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 12: but which I'm happy to do. But I'm excited. This

689
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 12: is you know, taxiform happens once every generation, but we

690
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 12: have now lawmakers have a chance to leave their mark

691
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:26,840
Speaker 12: on it, make it better, improve it, and things have changed.

692
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 12: So I'm excited for this new generation of lawmakers to

693
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 12: tackle this issue.

694
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 7: All right.

695
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:34,840
Speaker 2: Kevin Brady, spokesman for the Alliance for Competitive Taxation and

696
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 2: former chair of the House Ways and Means Committee. Always

697
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 2: great to see you here in studio. Thank you so

698
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:40,920
Speaker 2: much for joining us. Now we want to get a

699
00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 2: quick check on world and national news. Amy Morris has

700
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 2: that for us in our ninety nine one Newsroom. Here

701
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:47,320
Speaker 2: in Washington. Hey, Amy, Hi Kaylee.

702
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 9: The Supreme Court may be poised to allow abortions and

703
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:52,759
Speaker 9: medical emergencies in Idaho. That's according to a copy of

704
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 9: the opinion briefly posted on the Court's website. The decision

705
00:36:55,960 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 9: insurers hospitals in Idaho can perform those emergency abortions the

706
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:03,000
Speaker 9: health of the mother. The copy of the opinion is

707
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 9: not necessarily the final ruling, given that it hasn't been

708
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 9: officially released, and in fact, the Supreme Court's press office

709
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:12,320
Speaker 9: did say it had been inadvertently posted and the official

710
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 9: ruling will be released in due course. Two decisions that

711
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:18,399
Speaker 9: were released today. In one case, the Court paired back

712
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:21,360
Speaker 9: a public corruption law, saying that state and local officials

713
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:24,920
Speaker 9: who accept gratuities are not necessarily covered by a federal

714
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:28,240
Speaker 9: bribery statute. And in another ruling, the Supreme Court sided

715
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 9: with the Biden administration over communications with social media companies.

716
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 9: Not on the merits, but they say the challengers really

717
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 9: didn't have a legal right to sue Global News twenty

718
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:38,840
Speaker 9: four hours a day and whenever you want it with

719
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 9: Bloomberg News. Now, I'm Amy Morris. Now back to balance

720
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:43,319
Speaker 9: of power. Joe Matthew and.

721
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 4: Kaylee Lyne Amy, thank you so much.

722
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 3: Glad to have you with us on Bloomberg TV and

723
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:50,800
Speaker 3: Radio here on the fastest show in politics, with something

724
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 3: important that's happening today that has nothing to do with

725
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:57,239
Speaker 3: the presidential debates tomorrow night, although I suspect it might

726
00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:01,360
Speaker 3: come up. As a President Biden referred to detained journalists

727
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 3: around the world in his speech at the White House

728
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 3: Correspondence Dinner.

729
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:10,359
Speaker 1: Here's a reminder, journalism is clearly not a crime, not here,

730
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:12,080
Speaker 1: not there, not anywhere in the world.

731
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:21,280
Speaker 12: And Pune should release Evan and also immediately.

732
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:25,920
Speaker 2: The Evan, of course, the President was referring to there

733
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:29,160
Speaker 2: as Evan Gershkovich, who today in Russia had the opening

734
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:32,400
Speaker 2: of his espionage trial. Joining us now for more is

735
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:34,800
Speaker 2: Paul Beckett. He is from the Wall Street Journal Or

736
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 2: he's an assistant editor, but also has been handling Evan's

737
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:41,239
Speaker 2: case as it has drug out now for some time. Paul,

738
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:43,359
Speaker 2: Welcome back to Bloomberg. Thank you so much for joining

739
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:46,440
Speaker 2: us here in studio. Should we even really be calling

740
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:48,759
Speaker 2: this a trial? Is that what this is?

741
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 13: It's not a trial as your I understand it. We

742
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:54,759
Speaker 13: view it more as a secret hearing at which a

743
00:38:54,840 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 13: judge will endorse the accusations false accusations against Evan, after

744
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,959
Speaker 13: which he will be convicted. So the due processes isn't

745
00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:04,880
Speaker 13: part of the process.

746
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 3: You've spent a good chunk of time here working toward

747
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 3: his release. What does the start of a trial say

748
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 3: about your progress?

749
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 13: We remain ever hopeful that we can avoid the path

750
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:20,040
Speaker 13: that this is now headed down, But if anything, I

751
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:23,759
Speaker 13: hope it just injects some urgency into the Biden administration's

752
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:27,399
Speaker 13: efforts to bring Evan and Paul Wheelan and also another's home.

753
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 2: Of course, there is some time between this first hearing

754
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:33,440
Speaker 2: today and the next one, which isn't scheduled until mid August,

755
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:35,360
Speaker 2: but it does seem that you think ultimately, at the

756
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:38,000
Speaker 2: end of these proceedings he will be convicted. How much

757
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:40,440
Speaker 2: harder would it be to bring him home after a

758
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 2: conviction than before one.

759
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:45,200
Speaker 13: That's hard to tell. The Russians originally said it would

760
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 13: take a trial before they would enter into negotiations over

761
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:52,400
Speaker 13: his release, but we know that those negation negotiations have

762
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 13: gone on in the past year, and we believe that

763
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 13: they're going on now. So it's just very hard to

764
00:39:57,640 --> 00:39:59,759
Speaker 13: tell I think the important thing is it comes to

765
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:03,840
Speaker 13: town where we really get into presidential campaign season, we

766
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 13: get to the end of the year, then ally governments

767
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:08,880
Speaker 13: might change. I mean, there's just a lot looking ahead.

768
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 13: That means the time to bring him back is now.

769
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 3: So you feel like this is a closing window. Donald

770
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:18,440
Speaker 3: Trump says the news media is the enemy of the

771
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:20,719
Speaker 3: American people. What would happen to this effort if he

772
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 3: were re elected?

773
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:25,440
Speaker 13: It has been a bipartisan issue and we'd like to

774
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:28,879
Speaker 13: see it stay that way. And for President Trump has

775
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 13: talked about the need to get Evan back.

776
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 4: This is something you expect. Maybe both mentioned tomorrow night.

777
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:38,359
Speaker 13: That will be up to the moderators, but we hope

778
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 13: it's top of mind for them because it has been

779
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:42,800
Speaker 13: a priority in the Trump administration. It was a priority

780
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:43,719
Speaker 13: in the Biden administration.

781
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 4: That's important enough.

782
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 13: So we need to We just wanted to finish the

783
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:48,839
Speaker 13: job and get them home.

784
00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:51,800
Speaker 2: To be honest, can you tell us anything about Evan's

785
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:54,239
Speaker 2: condition right now? What you have been able to hear

786
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:57,759
Speaker 2: from him as this hearing in this trial? And I

787
00:40:57,800 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 2: say that in air quotes has left or come to today,

788
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:04,320
Speaker 2: of course, being the launch.

789
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 13: Day He's held up incredibly well over the last fifteen

790
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:09,799
Speaker 13: months when he was in Moscow. He has been moved

791
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 13: to Katrinberg, which is a city about nine hundred miles

792
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 13: east of Moscow, and he's been putting a new detention facility.

793
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:18,680
Speaker 13: You may have seen him in his court cage this

794
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:22,000
Speaker 13: morning with a shaved head that was prison mandate. But

795
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:24,719
Speaker 13: he's held up all this time, and we've no doubt

796
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:26,919
Speaker 13: that he will continue to hold up incredibly well.

797
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:28,080
Speaker 4: How's his family doing.

798
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 13: It's tough on all of them, but they are supporting him.

799
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:34,359
Speaker 13: He is supporting them, and we're supporting all of them.

800
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:36,880
Speaker 13: So I think they're doing okay. They're just ready for

801
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 13: this to stop.

802
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:41,800
Speaker 2: And as you say, they're ready for this to stop.

803
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:45,480
Speaker 2: Have you gotten any indication on the speed of progress

804
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:48,160
Speaker 2: from the administration or are they just continually telling you

805
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 2: we are working on it. Are they giving you exact

806
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 2: updates on time frame, on any indication on when we

807
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:56,479
Speaker 2: might be saying going from saying free Evan to Evan

808
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 2: is free.

809
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 13: Our job is really to try and help create the

810
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:03,359
Speaker 13: conditions by which those talks can succeed. But they are

811
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:06,319
Speaker 13: being handled in a classified and secret way, so We

812
00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:09,239
Speaker 13: don't have much insight into where they are. We just

813
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:13,280
Speaker 13: know that they're going on and we wish some success.

814
00:42:14,160 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 3: Wrongfully detained as the State Department has formally determined that

815
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:21,760
Speaker 3: Evan Gershkovich was taken for the wrong reasons, allowing of course,

816
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 3: for the US negotiate on his behalf in Those negotiations

817
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 3: continue now with the support of Paul Beckett.

818
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 4: You should know that Paul was the bureau chief.

819
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:31,920
Speaker 3: The Washington Bureau Chief, a very important job of the

820
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 3: Wall Street Journal, and has put all of his time

821
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:36,160
Speaker 3: and efforts into securing Evan's release.

822
00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 4: And you're always welcome here. Paul. It's great to see

823
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:38,879
Speaker 4: you again.

824
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:41,000
Speaker 13: Really appreciate you support from both of you and your

825
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:42,200
Speaker 13: listeners and yours.

826
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 3: Thank you, sir for being with us and our best

827
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,560
Speaker 3: at his family. As you see him wearing the pin.

828
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 3: Free Evan with us live on Bloomberg TV and radio.

829
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:56,600
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can

830
00:42:56,800 --> 00:42:59,879
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

831
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 1: I Know with the Bloomberg Business Ad. You can also

832
00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

833
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:09,200
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

834
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:12,960
Speaker 4: So, yeah, tomorrow night could be a ripper.

835
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:17,319
Speaker 3: As the gag order is relaxed, the media and the

836
00:43:17,360 --> 00:43:19,440
Speaker 3: campaigns continue to raise the stakes, and we wanted to

837
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:23,799
Speaker 3: get the baseline roughly thirty hours out here. Well, we'll

838
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 3: call it a day out, even though our coverage starts

839
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 3: at eight tomorrow night with Cliff Young. Of course, the

840
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 3: brains behind IPSOS US Public Polling is the president of

841
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 3: ipso's Public Affairs and Cliff, it's great to see you.

842
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:42,479
Speaker 3: Welcome back, speaking from Cereba thirty thousand foot level. Yeah,

843
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 3: how would you describe the state of polling? And you

844
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 3: might want to focus on swing states. I know you

845
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:50,960
Speaker 3: have some new numbers there as these two candidates walk

846
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:52,600
Speaker 3: into the lions Den tomorrow.

847
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:57,000
Speaker 10: You know, the polling and the appoints been like this

848
00:43:57,080 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 10: for the last year, is basically flatlined. Ultimately, President Biden

849
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:06,719
Speaker 10: is in a weak place. He's been weak over the

850
00:44:06,840 --> 00:44:10,400
Speaker 10: last little bit, and I would ultimately say going into

851
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:13,120
Speaker 10: this debate, he has a lot more to lose than

852
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:14,040
Speaker 10: Donald Trump does.

853
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:20,080
Speaker 3: It's interesting you say that because the Trump campaign, until

854
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:24,240
Speaker 3: the last twenty four hours seems to be essentially raising.

855
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:26,120
Speaker 4: Expectations.

856
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:28,200
Speaker 3: I should say that in the opposite the last twenty

857
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:30,880
Speaker 3: four hours, they've been raising expectations so far. Though until then,

858
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:34,719
Speaker 3: Donald Trump has made Joe Biden sound like, you know,

859
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:37,200
Speaker 3: he's going to be drooling at the podium. He can't

860
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:40,239
Speaker 3: stitch three words together, and that kind of creates an

861
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:42,520
Speaker 3: interesting scenario for the president, doesn't it.

862
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:45,200
Speaker 10: Yeah, he has to go in. That is, Biden has

863
00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:48,480
Speaker 10: to go in and show that he's competent, that he's presidential,

864
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:51,880
Speaker 10: but he doesn't have a cognitive agility problem. And ultimately,

865
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 10: as I was saying, he has to show more. He

866
00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:59,320
Speaker 10: has in some ways more to lose, more downside than Trump.

867
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:03,360
Speaker 10: You know, the American populace expects Trump to be irreverenced,

868
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 10: to be kind of all over the place. That is

869
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 10: his style. That is not Biden's style. And Biden really

870
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:11,400
Speaker 10: needs to show himself to be one that can be

871
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:12,280
Speaker 10: president again.

872
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:15,480
Speaker 3: So if you have a line in your swing state

873
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:17,880
Speaker 3: right up here that jumps off the page, we at

874
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:20,799
Speaker 3: ipsos like to say the candidate who performs better at

875
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:25,560
Speaker 3: the main issue wins the election roughly eighty five percent

876
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:28,200
Speaker 3: of the time. So we're going to isolate that issue tomorrow,

877
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:30,040
Speaker 3: and I assume it's going to be the economy.

878
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:32,160
Speaker 4: Talk about what we'll hear from both.

879
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 10: It's inflation, inflation, inflation more specifically, but yes, the economy.

880
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:42,040
Speaker 10: On the one hand, Trump goes into this debate already

881
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:44,800
Speaker 10: being credible on it. Republicans tend to be more credible

882
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:48,160
Speaker 10: than Democrats on the issue of the economy. As long

883
00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 10: as he doesn't sort of deviate too much from the diagonal,

884
00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:54,440
Speaker 10: he should be okay. And on the other hand, Biden

885
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:57,600
Speaker 10: has a problem. Biden has tried and the administration has

886
00:45:57,719 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 10: tried to make the economic art argument. Excuse me, remember

887
00:46:02,040 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 10: biden Omics in any case, it hasn't. It hasn't happened.

888
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:10,719
Speaker 10: That connection hasn't occurred for large loss of the population.

889
00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:14,160
Speaker 10: He's not performing well on the economy, that is, Biden

890
00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:17,640
Speaker 10: isn't and he at the very least has to plant

891
00:46:17,680 --> 00:46:21,680
Speaker 10: some season kernels in the American populace's head that he

892
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:24,040
Speaker 10: is confident on the issue of the economy.

893
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:27,080
Speaker 3: We've been asking a lot of questions, Cliff about who's

894
00:46:27,080 --> 00:46:29,360
Speaker 3: going to watch this thing. You know, we're all running

895
00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:30,160
Speaker 3: this debate as.

896
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:32,840
Speaker 4: If it was an old fashioned commission debate.

897
00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:36,239
Speaker 3: But everyone's online and you know how many young people

898
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:40,480
Speaker 3: are watching appointment television if it's not a sporting event.

899
00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:43,040
Speaker 3: And even then you might be watching the highlights on

900
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:46,560
Speaker 3: social media. Your poll found thirty one percent of Americans

901
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 3: living in swing states, this is the audience that counts

902
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:53,000
Speaker 3: for the debate, say their main source of news is

903
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:56,400
Speaker 3: social media. So that creates an environment where everyone's just

904
00:46:56,440 --> 00:46:58,000
Speaker 3: going for a viral moment, right.

905
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:01,320
Speaker 10: Yeah, true, But you know, but the media landscape is

906
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:04,520
Speaker 10: much more fractured to day, Joe, As you know, I

907
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:07,520
Speaker 10: would say that it's not about watching it in real

908
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:10,920
Speaker 10: time in the moment, It's about the after effect.

909
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 4: The day after.

910
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:15,240
Speaker 10: I would say we need about five or six days

911
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:19,400
Speaker 10: before we can have a good read on the relative performance.

912
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:22,759
Speaker 10: So one way or another, a big chunk of the

913
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:26,680
Speaker 10: American population will have some sort of contact with the debate,

914
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:29,160
Speaker 10: even if they haven't watched it in real time.

915
00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:32,440
Speaker 3: We saw a little bit of a bump for Joe

916
00:47:32,480 --> 00:47:34,400
Speaker 3: Biden following the State of the Union. It was not

917
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:37,919
Speaker 3: the classic State of the Union bump that you would see,

918
00:47:37,960 --> 00:47:39,840
Speaker 3: but there was a kind of a temporary thing I

919
00:47:39,880 --> 00:47:41,840
Speaker 3: guess that happened there. Cliff, you can put a finer

920
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:43,440
Speaker 3: point on it if you want, But what does history

921
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 3: tell us about this first debate impacting numbers on the

922
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:48,280
Speaker 3: other side.

923
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 10: For the most part, overall, historically debates don't have enough.

924
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:56,799
Speaker 4: They're wash. So you might have an.

925
00:47:56,719 --> 00:48:03,200
Speaker 10: Extraordinary one, you know, like the Obama Robney debate. Obama

926
00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:06,719
Speaker 10: performed poorly, it really affected the polls, but for the

927
00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:09,920
Speaker 10: most part, they don't have an effect. That said, this

928
00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:13,839
Speaker 10: is a very unique debate. It's happening before the conventions.

929
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:18,279
Speaker 10: It's not happening by the standards that are set by

930
00:48:18,280 --> 00:48:21,640
Speaker 10: the Debate Committee. Right, is very unique and it's one

931
00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:25,319
Speaker 10: once again that's really needed by the Bidom camp. They

932
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:27,879
Speaker 10: really need to show themselves or he needs to show

933
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:31,759
Speaker 10: himself to be competent. Trump much less so.

934
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:38,080
Speaker 3: You find likely voters are concerned about inflation and immigration,

935
00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:41,960
Speaker 3: and those people prefer Donald Trump. I think it was

936
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:45,320
Speaker 3: fifty to forty seven percent. If that's the big issue,

937
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:47,440
Speaker 3: as we've established here, it's going to be inflation. That's

938
00:48:47,480 --> 00:48:50,319
Speaker 3: the issue that's going to likely decide the election. Here,

939
00:48:50,880 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 3: does Joe Biden just go in and talk about deficits

940
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:58,240
Speaker 3: If Donald Trump's tax cuts are made permanent or extended,

941
00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:00,600
Speaker 3: the inflationary impact of tariffs.

942
00:49:00,600 --> 00:49:02,279
Speaker 4: Are we going to hear in ninety minutes of this?

943
00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 10: Yeah, you know that abstract talk will not help Biden.

944
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:11,880
Speaker 10: What's happening in practice, in reality is that the average

945
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:15,319
Speaker 10: American is not feeling it, not feeling the vibe, is

946
00:49:15,360 --> 00:49:18,400
Speaker 10: having problems making ends meet. And if he goes in

947
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:24,360
Speaker 10: there and talks abstract rates, averages, these sorts of things,

948
00:49:24,360 --> 00:49:27,440
Speaker 10: he's gonna lose lose people. He really needs to talk

949
00:49:27,480 --> 00:49:31,080
Speaker 10: about feeling and emotion and connect with them at that level.

950
00:49:32,040 --> 00:49:33,400
Speaker 4: How does Trump lose people?

951
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:36,760
Speaker 3: I mean, I know there are kind of no rules

952
00:49:36,840 --> 00:49:40,000
Speaker 3: for Trump aside from the debate rules themselves. But if

953
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:41,960
Speaker 3: he goes in there and starts talking about the late

954
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:44,959
Speaker 3: great Hannibal Lecter and electric sharks and all the rest

955
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 3: of it, what's that night going to look like for him?

956
00:49:47,920 --> 00:49:50,320
Speaker 10: It's gonna be fun. It's gonna be fun to watch.

957
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:51,520
Speaker 4: Obviously.

958
00:49:51,760 --> 00:49:53,960
Speaker 10: I don't think there's much downside when it comes to Trump.

959
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:56,399
Speaker 4: I think he's no downside.

960
00:49:56,440 --> 00:49:58,960
Speaker 10: What a world not on those sorts of issues. No,

961
00:49:59,120 --> 00:50:00,799
Speaker 10: I mean, it's all big to to the numbers, and

962
00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:02,680
Speaker 10: so the people that love them love them. The people

963
00:50:02,719 --> 00:50:04,919
Speaker 10: that hate him hate him. And by the way, even

964
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:07,640
Speaker 10: the people that hate them secretly like to watch them

965
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:11,520
Speaker 10: perform in public settings like that. So I really think

966
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:15,360
Speaker 10: that the downside's much larger for Biden and much smaller,

967
00:50:15,440 --> 00:50:16,840
Speaker 10: if non existent, for Trump.

968
00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:20,879
Speaker 3: This is really something Joe Biden better get his rest.

969
00:50:20,920 --> 00:50:22,480
Speaker 3: I know that we've been talking a lot about the

970
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:26,319
Speaker 3: preparation here, whether you're going to be doing mack debates

971
00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:29,239
Speaker 3: or murder boards or you know how Donald Trump isn't

972
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:32,359
Speaker 3: doing the traditional preparation is not the most important thing

973
00:50:32,680 --> 00:50:34,160
Speaker 3: for Joe Biden to get rest.

974
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:37,640
Speaker 10: Yeah, you have to go in there and be spry, right,

975
00:50:37,800 --> 00:50:40,759
Speaker 10: you have to be agile the extent that you can. Yeah,

976
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:44,080
Speaker 10: good night's sleep obviously will be really important, maybe a nap,

977
00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:47,239
Speaker 10: But ultimately he needs to show that is Biden needs

978
00:50:47,239 --> 00:50:51,479
Speaker 10: to show Americans that he's presidential, that he's up.

979
00:50:51,400 --> 00:50:51,920
Speaker 4: To the task.

980
00:50:53,160 --> 00:50:55,160
Speaker 3: Maybe someday I'll take my own advice and get a

981
00:50:55,160 --> 00:50:57,279
Speaker 3: full night sleep. Cliff Young, it's great to see you.

982
00:50:57,719 --> 00:50:59,920
Speaker 3: Good luck with your watch party. Something tells me you'll

983
00:50:59,920 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 3: be in the field during our after and I hope

984
00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 3: you'll come back and talk to us about what you learn.

985
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:06,480
Speaker 3: If he's the president of IPSOS, US public affairs with

986
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:09,080
Speaker 3: his eyes on the numbers, one of the great polsters

987
00:51:09,120 --> 00:51:11,200
Speaker 3: we talk to on the regular here on Balance of Power.

988
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:12,800
Speaker 3: He gives you a sense of where we are walking

989
00:51:12,800 --> 00:51:15,440
Speaker 3: into this, clearly the burden on Joe Biden, according to

990
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 3: Cliff Young, Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

991
00:51:21,600 --> 00:51:24,719
Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

992
00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:27,399
Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

993
00:51:27,480 --> 00:51:30,720
Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

994
00:51:31,000 --> 00:51:32,440
Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot com.