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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketchas live weekdays at noon

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Speaker 1: and five pm Eastern on Apple Cocklay and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Clearly markets have seized on the narrative that emerged from

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Speaker 2: a phone call President Trump had with a CBS journalist yesterday,

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Speaker 2: the idea that the war could be over very soon,

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Speaker 2: that he thinks that the objectives are getting close to

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Speaker 2: complete pretty much. And that's a quote, of course, that

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Speaker 2: doesn't necessarily match the rhetoric we got from President Trump

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Speaker 2: when he spoke in Florida yesterday on the idea that, yes,

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Speaker 2: the US is winning, but there is more to be

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Speaker 2: one that they want to see some degree of completion

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Speaker 2: of the mission here, though that may not still be

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Speaker 2: clearly defined. And all the while we hear from the

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Speaker 2: Defense Department or the Department of War, as Pete Hegseth

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Speaker 2: likes to call it, that things are only intensifying in

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Speaker 2: terms of our operations when it comes to Iran, not

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Speaker 2: easing up. This was Secretary Hegseth at a briefing this morning.

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Speaker 3: Today will be yet again our most intense day of

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Speaker 3: strikes inside Iran. The last twenty four hours have seen

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Speaker 3: Iran fire the lowest number of missiles they've been capable

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Speaker 3: of firing. We will not relent until the enemy is

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Speaker 3: totally and decisively defeated.

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Speaker 4: On to truth, social the President of the United States

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Speaker 4: earlier today. If Iran does anything that stops the flow

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Speaker 4: of oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be

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Speaker 4: hit by the United States of America twenty times harder

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Speaker 4: in all caps than they have been hit thus far,

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Speaker 4: a far cry from the war being very complete. Bloomberg's

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Speaker 4: Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall, is on the north lawn of

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Speaker 4: the White House just begin our coverage this hour. Tyler,

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Speaker 4: how do we rationalize the rhetoric coming from the Pentagon,

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Speaker 4: the White House, and Iran, which now says it's not

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Speaker 4: interested in a ceasefire right now?

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Speaker 5: Well, Joe, I think both of you really set it

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Speaker 5: up perfectly that there seems to be a little bit

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Speaker 5: of tension here when it comes to a potential timeline. Now,

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Speaker 5: President Trump outlining yesterday that the US is ahead of schedule,

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Speaker 5: in his words, when it comes to achieving its objectives,

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Speaker 5: but that he doesn't expect the conflict to be resolved

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Speaker 5: this week. Then pair that with Secretary Pete Hegseth earlier

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Speaker 5: today outlining that the US is will to achieve its

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Speaker 5: goals are endless, but he said that this operation is

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Speaker 5: not going to be endless, and we heard him reiterate

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Speaker 5: how the US is measuring progress, perhaps outlining those goals

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Speaker 5: including destroying Iran's ballistic missile program, but also the industrial

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Speaker 5: base used to create those weapons, destroying Iran's naval and

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Speaker 5: navy capacity, and then making sure that Iron will not

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Speaker 5: be able to ever deploy a nuclear weapon.

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Speaker 6: So we're looking for some sort.

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Speaker 5: Of update when it comes to how the US is

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Speaker 5: actually measuring how it is working towards these targets. As

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Speaker 5: Pete Heggs has said earlier today that the US has

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Speaker 5: so far hit more than five thousand targets in Iran.

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Speaker 5: But then, as you mentioned, we got this statement from

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Speaker 5: the speaker of Iran's parliament saying that they absolutely not

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Speaker 5: are looking to negotiate and have a ceasefire. And then

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Speaker 5: I'll also point you to a statement overnight from the

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Speaker 5: IRGC saying that the military intends to continue to block

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Speaker 5: oil flows and exports when it comes to the region.

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Speaker 5: And you mentioned President Trump's post on truth Social earlier today.

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Speaker 5: Yesterday we heard him say actually that we could see

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Speaker 5: the list of US targets widen to hit electricity infrastructure

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Speaker 5: if disruptions in the Strait of her moves do continue,

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Speaker 5: and by most metrics they are. Traffic in the Strait

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Speaker 5: has effectively come to a holt, as Joe and Kayley

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Speaker 5: Bloomberg News reporting this morning that it appears that electronic

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Speaker 5: warfare is now being deployed to jam the signals in

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Speaker 5: the Straits, which is only complicating the matter more for

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Speaker 5: those vessels that are supposed to be heading through.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's incredible, Tyler, as a red headline just crosses

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg terminal that oil is extending declines. We are

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Speaker 2: now down fifteen percent on the day, trading back near

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Speaker 2: eighty dollars a barrel on WTI. This is a far

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Speaker 2: cry from where we were just at this time yesterday,

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Speaker 2: certainly from the early trade Sunday into Monday, which speaks

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Speaker 2: to the idea that President Trump clearly is cognizant of

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Speaker 2: the market.

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Speaker 6: If the straight off wor.

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Speaker 2: Moves cannot be opened up in the near term, what

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Speaker 2: other action domestically do we understand the administration may be

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Speaker 2: prepared to take when it comes to gas prices, which

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Speaker 2: are still higher than they were when this conflict started,

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Speaker 2: even with the declines we are seeing.

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Speaker 5: Well, I'll actually give you first the international coordinated effort

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Speaker 5: that we could see as the G seven did ask

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Speaker 5: the International Energy Agency today to draw up scenarios about

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Speaker 5: potentially drawing down those emergency stock piles. And President Trump

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Speaker 5: himself has said that the US is looking at some

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Speaker 5: other potential options.

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Speaker 7: Right he had.

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Speaker 5: Floated the idea that we could see the US Navy

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Speaker 5: escort tankers through the straight I'll point out that the

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Speaker 5: chair of the Joint Chase of Staff, Dan Kane, was

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Speaker 5: asked directly about this, and so that the military was

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Speaker 5: prepared to drop scenarios if that option ended up being

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Speaker 5: fulfilled or asked by by the president. But it doesn't

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Speaker 5: seem that that scenario has been built just quite yet.

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Speaker 5: And then people familiar with the matter telling Bloomberg News

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Speaker 5: just yesterday that there were these other tools in the

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Speaker 5: toolkit that the administration is eyeing including potentially a federal

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Speaker 5: gas tax holiday. I'll point out that that would require

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Speaker 5: congressional approval. We could also see potentially some intervention in

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Speaker 5: the oil futures market, and then this idea that we

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Speaker 5: could actually see a tapping of strategic reserves amid some

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Speaker 5: questions about replenishing the SPR. I pulled the latest statistics

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Speaker 5: earlier today. The SPR right now is at sixty percent capacity,

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Speaker 5: so there could be some room here, of course, but

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Speaker 5: the administration had been denying that that was really an

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Speaker 5: option that they had ultimately wanted to tap. So we'll

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Speaker 5: see as it goes from here. Because Kaylee, you're exactly right.

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Speaker 5: This is a White House that has been trying to

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Speaker 5: message around affordability concerns, but as retail gas prices go up,

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Speaker 5: it's going to be something that puts the administration on

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Speaker 5: the defense.

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Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg, Tyler Kendall live at the north line

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Speaker 2: of the White House. Thank you so much. And as

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Speaker 2: we consider the White House messaging around affordability, around gasoline prices,

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Speaker 2: around this conflict in Iran, we got many messages from

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Speaker 2: President Trump yesterday, either via interviews like the one with

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Speaker 2: CBS that really turned the markets around into the close

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Speaker 2: in the Monday trade, or in statements that the President

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Speaker 2: has given both two Republicans at their retreat in Doral,

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Speaker 2: at his facilities in Dorau, or in the press conference

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Speaker 2: that followed. Here's a taste of the words of President

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Speaker 2: Trump yesterday.

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Speaker 8: This was just an excursion into something that had to

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Speaker 8: be done during this brief disruption. We're way ahead of

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Speaker 8: schedule and it's going to be ended soon, and if

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Speaker 8: it starts up again, they'll be they'll be hit even harder.

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Speaker 2: So we want to speak now with someone who was

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Speaker 2: there in the room where the President spoke yesterday, Congress

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Speaker 2: and Marlin Stutsman is with us. He's a Republican representing

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Speaker 2: Deanna's third district, joining us live from Doral, and we

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Speaker 2: appreciate it, sir, Welcome back to balance of power here

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg. When you heard the words of the President,

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Speaker 2: both in the ones directly to you and your House

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Speaker 2: colleagues and in the press conference after, do you have

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Speaker 2: a sense of clarity as to when exactly this conflict

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Speaker 2: is going to be wrapped up and what we will

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Speaker 2: have achieved at the end of it, what we still

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Speaker 2: may have yet to achieve.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, Kaylie, great to be with you.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, you know, the President is taking the information day

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Speaker 9: by day that comes in. You know, one of the

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Speaker 9: things that we all know and are seeing is that

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Speaker 9: our military is performing just incredibly and the fact that

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Speaker 9: you know, the intelligence I was gathered on the front

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Speaker 9: end gave our military the ability to go in and

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Speaker 9: take out the Iranian assets at the pace.

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Speaker 7: That they did is truly remarkable.

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Speaker 9: And I think for us as Americans, our attention span

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Speaker 9: can be very short, and we want these things to

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Speaker 9: happen quickly, just like you know with the Murduro case,

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Speaker 9: where our military was in and out overnight was incredible.

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Speaker 9: But you know, we have to realize that these things

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Speaker 9: do take some time and that this is going to

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Speaker 9: be a long term situation that is going to have

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Speaker 9: to be dealt with, and I think President Trump.

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Speaker 7: Is handling it.

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Speaker 6: We're going to Congressman, well, I think we're.

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Speaker 9: Going to operate as quickly as possible. We want to

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Speaker 9: destroy the assets and we want to see that the

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Speaker 9: Iranian regime is decimated. And you know, as was said

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Speaker 9: earlier on the program, that you know the other side

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Speaker 9: has a vote in this, I think that they're going

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Speaker 9: to continue to, you know, use their propaganda to try

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Speaker 9: to drag this out as long as they can, like

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Speaker 9: they always do. But in reality, I think we know

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Speaker 9: that this is going to be a shorter situation. The

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Speaker 9: mission is already mostly accomplished, but of course the transition

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Speaker 9: and the changes over there still have to be made.

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Speaker 9: My hope is the Iranian people really step up and

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Speaker 9: they're the ones that start to make the changes in

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Speaker 9: the in the government that need to be made, with

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Speaker 9: the support of a coalition that has really come together

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Speaker 9: very strong in the Middle East and here at home.

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Speaker 4: I guess to your point, Congressman, and it's good to

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Speaker 4: have you back. Thanks for joining us.

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Speaker 10: I know it's a gorgeous day in Miami right now.

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Speaker 4: That research coming from Rapidan Energy would suggest that we

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Speaker 4: could be in for a lot more of this US

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Speaker 4: military operations. Rapidan rights have not yet meaningfully degraded Iron's

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Speaker 4: ability to disrupt straight of horrorm Moo's traffic, and are

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Speaker 4: likely to do so for several weeks. This updated disruption

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Speaker 4: outlook indicates that, barring a cease fire and the resumption

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Speaker 4: of Horrormos flows, crude oil could get back into the

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Speaker 4: mid one hundreds kind of like we saw in the

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Speaker 4: panic that brought us to one hundred and twenty dollars

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Speaker 4: almost yesterday morning. How worried are you that we actually

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Speaker 4: have not seen the worst of this yet.

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Speaker 9: Well, I think there's definitely concern, and there's natural concern.

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Speaker 9: I mean, who wants to take the risk of traveling

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Speaker 9: through there right now. But it was just announced that

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Speaker 9: President Trump just put together a twenty billion dollar underwriting

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Speaker 9: insurance program and is telling these ship operators in these

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Speaker 9: shipping companies to move and to continue to operate, and

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Speaker 9: that you know, we've taken care of the navy, the

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Speaker 9: Iranian navy, that they're no longer a threat. Of course,

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Speaker 9: China wants to see activity. Most you know, buyers and

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Speaker 9: sellers of the almost twenty percent of the oil and

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Speaker 9: gas that comes out of the Persian Gulf area and

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Speaker 9: through the Straits of horor Mews is able to move.

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Speaker 9: And so I think that President Trump, who is a businessman,

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Speaker 9: knows that while there is instability with the military attacking Iran,

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Speaker 9: that it does create uncertainty. But by coming back on

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Speaker 9: the backside with an insurance program and confidence saying that

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Speaker 9: they can move, hopefully we'll make a difference. So I think, really,

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Speaker 9: you know, to Kayley's question earlier, I think within a

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Speaker 9: month from now, we're going.

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Speaker 7: To have a very different conversation.

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Speaker 2: Well, as we consider the straight of hor moves, it

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Speaker 2: is worth noting that the Energy Secretary Chris Wright actually

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Speaker 2: just posted on x thatsident Trump is, in his words,

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Speaker 2: maintaining stability of global energy during these military operations against Iran.

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Speaker 2: He says, the US Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker

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Speaker 2: through the Strait of Hoore Moves to ensure oil remains

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Speaker 2: flowing to the global market. So when we consider that escort,

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Speaker 2: a Congressman, and you mentioned also the insurance underwriting, that's

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Speaker 2: billions of dollars as well. All of this comes at

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Speaker 2: a cost via military resources or others, which raises the question,

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Speaker 2: and given your seat on the Budget Committee, I'll pose

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Speaker 2: it to you how we're going to pay for this,

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Speaker 2: if we need more funding to pay for this, and

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Speaker 2: whether that's going to come through just a supplemental bill

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Speaker 2: or maybe a second reconciliation package.

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Speaker 9: Well, it could probably come through either one of those.

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Speaker 9: It depends on what the needs are. A reconciliation bill

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Speaker 9: is going to move, but it's going to probably take time.

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Speaker 7: Now.

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Speaker 9: You know, one thing that we have seen is that

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Speaker 9: getting things through the Senate sometimes you have to package

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Speaker 9: them together like we did with the one big beautiful bill.

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Speaker 9: There may have to be a second big beautiful bill.

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Speaker 7: To be able to move through.

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Speaker 9: But if it's a supplemental I think that there will

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Speaker 9: also be strong Republican support. And I think that the

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Speaker 9: fact is is that President Trump wants to he moves quickly.

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Speaker 9: He wants to find solutions and get things moving without

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Speaker 9: as little disruption as possible. But as we all know that,

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Speaker 9: you know, the markets get scared, people don't want to

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Speaker 9: take the risks, and so there's there is going to

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Speaker 9: be a price to pay for that. So you know,

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Speaker 9: I would answer that, you know, with stability there comes

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Speaker 9: a price.

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Speaker 7: It's much easier for terrorists.

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Speaker 9: To shoot a you know, two thousand dollars rocket when

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Speaker 9: we have to have a two hundred thousand dollars rocket

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Speaker 9: to respond to it, to knock it out of the sky.

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Speaker 9: So safety and security does come with a price tag,

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Speaker 9: and I think that that's why it's important to do

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Speaker 9: this now. Before we ever gave Iran a chance to

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Speaker 9: have a nuclear weapon and they would be leveraging the

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Speaker 9: West from here for eternity.

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Speaker 4: I'd love to ask you about the messaging conversations that

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Speaker 4: you're having at the retreat, Congressman, but just quickly, do

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Speaker 4: you expect that supplemental recques us from the White House

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Speaker 4: this week as some had reported.

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Speaker 9: I don't know if it'll be this week. I think

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Speaker 9: they're probably still analyzing a bit. But you know what,

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Speaker 9: they may have the numbers that come from the Department

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Speaker 9: of War. You know, they have a pretty good idea

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Speaker 9: of what the daily costs are. But I think that,

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Speaker 9: you know, I would suspect maybe over the weekend or

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Speaker 9: the request comes and then we'll have to take it

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Speaker 9: up next week when we get back to Washington. But

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Speaker 9: I think that there's a lot of positivity around the

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Speaker 9: actions the mission that has been accomplished in Iran. You know,

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Speaker 9: just watching the Iranian people here in America, the Iranian

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Speaker 9: Americans that are celebrating because this regime is being changed.

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Speaker 9: You know, I don't have any problems saying that there

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Speaker 9: needs to be a change in regime in Iran and

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Speaker 9: the fact that we have taken out the military capabilities

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Speaker 9: that they've had, the nuclear capabilities that they were working

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Speaker 9: on giving the Iranian people a chance. I think that

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Speaker 9: the Iranian people are the real difference makers here that

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Speaker 9: are going to really guide the direction of Iran, just

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Speaker 9: like I said, the same thing with Syria, and Syria

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Speaker 9: is making a good move in the right direction. So

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Speaker 9: having opportunity for the people who will produce good results,

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Speaker 9: I hope.

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Speaker 4: Well, we're covering the globe here and see I want

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Speaker 4: to ask you about the Ayatola sun now, Congressman, and

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Speaker 4: that's the issue. We've now talked for about ten minutes

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Speaker 4: and we haven't brought up the issue of affordability in

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Speaker 4: our remaining moment.

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Speaker 10: Are you having conversations there?

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Speaker 4: Is there a plan for members like yourself and the

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Speaker 4: Republican Conference to message around this war when it comes

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Speaker 4: to affordability in America?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, Noel, you know that's exactly right. You know, things

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Speaker 9: here at home are getting better. Inflation is down. Of course,

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Speaker 9: what we passed and the big beautiful bill addresses the

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Speaker 9: tax policy that is now going to benefit Americans. We're

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Speaker 9: just coming into tax season and the Treasury Secretary is

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Speaker 9: doing a phenomenal job of communicating what is happening and

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Speaker 9: that people are seeing more money being left in their

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Speaker 9: pockets rather than going to pay the federal government's spending

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Speaker 9: spreese over the the last several years. When people have

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Speaker 9: more money in their pockets, that's going to spur on

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Speaker 9: the economy. And as I was just talking to some

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Speaker 9: sales folks back home, they don't see the urgency yet,

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Speaker 9: but they are.

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Speaker 7: Starting to see that.

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Speaker 9: People are just kind of building up and ready to

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Speaker 9: make moves here over the summer. So I think again,

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Speaker 9: this summer we'll see a much more active market.

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Speaker 4: Well, I guess we'll all be hoping for fat tax

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Speaker 4: returns this year. Congressman, thank you so much for the insights. Again,

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Speaker 4: redhead on the terminal, the Navy escorting an oil tanker

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Speaker 4: through the straight or hoor moves.

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Speaker 10: It has happened. This is Bloomberg. Stay with us on

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Speaker 10: Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Coarclay,

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Speaker 1: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on

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Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

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Speaker 1: on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: This remarkable move in oil, Yes, it was an outsize

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Speaker 2: move to the upside yesterday before a complete reversal on

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Speaker 2: the headlines from Trump's interview, a conversation with CBS suggesting

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Speaker 2: the war could end soon now even more downward pressure

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Speaker 2: coming today and the leg lower continuing after this headline

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Speaker 2: from the Energy Secretary Chris Right, who says the Navy

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Speaker 2: has successfully escorted a tanker through the Straight of Woar moves, which,

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Speaker 2: of course President Trump suggested the US Navy would be

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Speaker 2: willing to do in order to combat higher oil prices,

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Speaker 2: which when he launched his combat operations when it comes

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Speaker 2: to Iran over a week ago, he said he anticipated this,

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Speaker 2: was the president yesterday.

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Speaker 8: Evening, I knew oil prices would go up if I

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Speaker 8: did this, and they've gone up, probably less than I

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Speaker 8: thought they'd go up. We're also waiving certain oil related

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Speaker 8: sanctions to reduce prices when the time comes. The US

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Speaker 8: Navy and his partner as well as score tankers through

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Speaker 8: the strait if needed.

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Speaker 10: And here we are.

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Speaker 4: It's actually happened, As Kaylee mentioned, the President adding some

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Speaker 4: thoughts on truth to write, if Iran does anything that

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Speaker 4: stops the flow of oil within the Straight of hor moves,

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Speaker 4: they will be hit by the US twenty times harder

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Speaker 4: than they have been hit thus far. Additionally, will take

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Speaker 4: out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible,

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Speaker 4: he says, for Iran to ever be built back as

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Speaker 4: a nation again, death, fire and fury will rain upon them.

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Speaker 4: We assembled our political panel for their take. Bloomberg Politics

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Speaker 4: contributors Rick Davis, Republican Strategists, partner at Stone Court Capital,

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Speaker 4: and Genie Shanzano Democracy Visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's

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Speaker 4: Ash Center with us for more on this. Rick, when

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Speaker 4: you hear the rhetoric from the President, you see now

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Speaker 4: that we're actually escorting tankers through the strait. This is

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Speaker 4: essentially a no fly zone that we're standing up here.

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Speaker 10: Can we afford to do this for weeks?

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Speaker 7: Well, certainly within.

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Speaker 11: The capacity of the Fifth Fleet, our Navy presidence in

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Speaker 11: the Gulf to be able to carry out these maneuvers.

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Speaker 11: They train this, they do games around it. They know

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Speaker 11: what they're doing, and it's no easy task. The Gulf

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Speaker 11: is a very shallow body of water. The pinch point

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Speaker 11: at the strait of horn Moose, you could throw rocks

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Speaker 11: into Iran as you sift your way through there. So's

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Speaker 11: it's taking these tankers through a war zone, and you

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Speaker 11: know it's it's it's great for the price of oil.

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Speaker 11: Obviously we see movement just off the announcement. That's important

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Speaker 11: for the rest of the world. But I would worry

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Speaker 11: that this is an escalation on the part of the military,

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Speaker 11: a new phase of the war where we're putting our

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Speaker 11: service members in our in our military at risk in

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Speaker 11: order to deliver oil to who Mostly this oil goes

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Speaker 11: to Asia and half of it goes to China.

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Speaker 7: I think that's a real.

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Speaker 11: Political risk for the president if anything happens.

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Speaker 2: Well, and the President was saying that out loud in

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Speaker 2: his press conference yesterday, Jeanie. He actually said this really

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Speaker 2: is standing to benefit China, that it's an honor to

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Speaker 2: do it. How does that message ring here at home?

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Speaker 12: Not?

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Speaker 6: Well?

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Speaker 12: It was you know, on top of saying he knew

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Speaker 12: oil prices we're going to go up, he is saying

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Speaker 12: that this is going to benefit China. He said so

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Speaker 12: many things during that press conference that were really orwellian

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Speaker 12: to the point that you couldn't really make.

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Speaker 7: Sense of them.

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Speaker 12: At one point he said we could do it the

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Speaker 12: easy way or the hard way, and I think the

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Speaker 12: hard way is the easy way, and you just stop

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Speaker 12: and think, what is he talking about? And so none

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Speaker 12: of this works for him politically. It is a risk.

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Speaker 12: It is an escalation for the US Navy to do this,

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Speaker 12: and it is an escalation just hours after the President

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Speaker 12: said this thing was near over and oh, by the way,

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Speaker 12: we're going to keep going. So it's hard to know

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Speaker 12: what to make of it except this is bad for

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Speaker 12: the United States. It's bad for him politically. And I

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Speaker 12: guess the winner here, thank you Donald Trump is China.

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Speaker 4: Well, you know the old don't take him literally, take

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Speaker 4: him seriously. Lined Rick Davis is even challenged by what

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Speaker 4: we've heard in the last twenty four hours. The war

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Speaker 4: was very complete, according to what he said yesterday, and

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Speaker 4: now we're doubling down to what Pete Hegseth calls the

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Speaker 4: most intense day of bombing. Yet, assuming that the military

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Speaker 4: is outperforming, and that has been the report from every quarter,

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Speaker 4: what about the rhetoric and the way voters are supposed

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Speaker 4: to interpret what they're hearing. The President did hold a

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Speaker 4: news conference last evening, and it was a bit of

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Speaker 4: a weave. Does the administration need to be more directs,

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Speaker 4: more on point with the American people.

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Speaker 11: Sure, I would say that at best, the communication strategy

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Speaker 11: around this entire thing has been stressed out. President never

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Speaker 11: went to the American public at the beginning and said,

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Speaker 11: this is why we are doing what we're doing. This

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Speaker 11: is why I have asked to spell our blood and

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Speaker 11: treasure in a place like Iran. This is why it's

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Speaker 11: important to the American people. So that didn't get done.

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Speaker 11: So since then it's been pretty much backfilling. You know,

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Speaker 11: this is what happened today. And sometimes it's good news,

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Speaker 11: sometimes it's bad news. Certainly the bad news the public

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Speaker 11: tracks is how many American service personnel die in this effort,

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Speaker 11: because that is the most sensitive political issue in America ever.

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Speaker 11: And so yeah, I don't think this administration is really

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Speaker 11: on top of their game. Pretty clear last night the

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Speaker 11: President was saying things that were not echoed by the

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Speaker 11: Secretary of War today. This is always the challenge with

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Speaker 11: doing press briefings. You expose yourself to inconsistencies within the administration.

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Speaker 11: So it's incumbent upon this administration to communicate clearly to

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Speaker 11: the public, and it's on them if they don't. And

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Speaker 11: in an election year, like this is. It makes it

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Speaker 11: even more important. So we'll see whether or not they

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Speaker 11: sort of get their comms act together, But right now

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Speaker 11: they seem pretty spread thin on that.

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Speaker 1: Well.

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Speaker 2: And to this point, there's new pulling out from IPSOS

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Speaker 2: around public sentiment around the war in Iran. Overall, just

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Speaker 2: thirty three percent of those polls say that President Trump

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Speaker 2: has clearly explained the goals of US military action in Iran.

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Speaker 2: Sixty four percent said the administration has not adequately explained

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Speaker 2: the objectives or haven't done so clearly. Into Rick's point, Genie,

441
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:33,200
Speaker 2: there was also overwhelmingly fifty four percent or very thirty

442
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:36,359
Speaker 2: one percent somewhat concerns concerned about risk to the lives

443
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 2: of American military person all, there's concern in here about

444
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 2: the cost of military action and the economic impact here

445
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,399
Speaker 2: at home. The vast majority are concerned about that, but

446
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:48,440
Speaker 2: President Trump has suggested that he doesn't care about pulling

447
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:50,880
Speaker 2: around this issue. So I wonder when we think about

448
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 2: the tone shifts we have gotten from the President, whether

449
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:55,120
Speaker 2: or not they're consistent, if you think that is more

450
00:22:55,920 --> 00:23:00,159
Speaker 2: reflection of political reality or market reality, market forces that

451
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 2: the president is considered.

452
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:08,440
Speaker 12: Primarily to market forces. He does care an awful lot

453
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:12,359
Speaker 12: about his own image, his legacy, how he is viewed

454
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 12: in the media and in polls. But of course he

455
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 12: discounts the polls that don't show him favorably, and he

456
00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,199
Speaker 12: you know, holds up those that do. So I'm not

457
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 12: surprised with these really bad numbers out of ipsos, out

458
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:29,919
Speaker 12: of quinnipiac. I mean it is across the board. You know.

459
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,680
Speaker 12: He is of course going to say, oh, these polls

460
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 12: don't matter. And I think just to step back and say,

461
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,719
Speaker 12: the president spoke for ninety minutes yesterday, Kaylee, and you

462
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:44,440
Speaker 12: and Joe listened to the entire thing, and what did

463
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:48,119
Speaker 12: we get out of that? We got completely mixed and

464
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 12: muddled messages. None of this is normal. Over fifteen hundred

465
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 12: people have been killed. We have an energy crisis, We

466
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 12: have a president administration who.

467
00:23:58,400 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 10: Don't agree on why we're there.

468
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:03,400
Speaker 12: We have an Iatola's son who is now the supreme

469
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 12: leader after having his wife, his children, and his father killed.

470
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 12: He is more hardlined than the previous. And we have

471
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 12: nine hundred pounds of nuclear materials sitting in Iran and

472
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:19,160
Speaker 12: they are saying job is almost done, this is looking great.

473
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,200
Speaker 12: None of this is normal. None of it makes sense,

474
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:25,919
Speaker 12: and the American people are right when they say, we

475
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,880
Speaker 12: do not support what is going on here, and they

476
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 12: need a Congress to back them up in that.

477
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 4: You know, Rick, we're talking about the president's messaging to

478
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 4: the American people. How about to members of Congress and

479
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 4: specifically the Senate. This great reporting today by Bloomberg's Matt

480
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,119
Speaker 4: Shirley that you can find on the terminal and online.

481
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 4: Several Senate Democrats are threatening to force war powers votes

482
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 4: and disrupt the chamber unless Republicans agree to hold public

483
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 4: hearings with key Trump administration officials on the reasons for

484
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,399
Speaker 4: the attacks on Iran. That doesn't sound like something that

485
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 4: Trump had been a stration is about to do. Does

486
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 4: this bring ever more dysfunction to the Senate?

487
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:06,160
Speaker 7: Yeah?

488
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,119
Speaker 11: I mean, this is just one more layer of dispute

489
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:12,920
Speaker 11: between Democrats and Republicans on top of layers and layers

490
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 11: of issues that they're trying to fight through. And you

491
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,159
Speaker 11: see Republicans sort of, you know, bouncing from side to

492
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 11: side on this. You know, many of these issues are

493
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 11: really stressing out Republicans who want to see government function,

494
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 11: who want to see things move along, and want to

495
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 11: support the President on the war, but have been given

496
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:32,440
Speaker 11: very little.

497
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 10: To go on.

498
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,639
Speaker 11: I mean, there have been many classified briefings. And this

499
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 11: is the complaint the Democrats are making. If you're willing

500
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 11: to sit with the entire Congress and tell us these

501
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 11: things frankly that we read in the New York Times

502
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:48,119
Speaker 11: the next day, then what's the good of having a

503
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:51,680
Speaker 11: classified briefing, Because really what we are is the greatest

504
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 11: press conference known to man. Congress. We communicate to the

505
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 11: American public through these hearings, and that's why they want

506
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,920
Speaker 11: public hearings, because they want this administration go on to

507
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,479
Speaker 11: record to explain to the public why they're doing what

508
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 11: they're doing, not just at the Department of War in

509
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 11: a daily press briefing, not just the President in the

510
00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 11: back of the plane. They want this stuff on the

511
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:16,919
Speaker 11: record in the Congress so that the American people can

512
00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 11: judge the consequences. It shows just how polarized the politics

513
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 11: of all this is. And it doesn't stop at the

514
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 11: water's edge anymore. It goes with war also.

515
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,560
Speaker 2: Well, does could it not also in some way serve

516
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 2: the administration? Genie, when we're talking about the communication problems,

517
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 2: why not just go testify and make the case that

518
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 2: you have arguably been making in press conferences, whether it's

519
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:44,879
Speaker 2: a Department of Defense or President Trunk last night.

520
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean, Kaylee, it couldn't get much worse from

521
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 12: a communications perspective. So I do think and I do

522
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 12: hope the Democrats are successful in getting them there. The

523
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 12: problem for the administration is there is no clear objective

524
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 12: as to what they are doing, how long this is

525
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 12: going to go on, Why we are there? They have

526
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 12: been all over the map. So imagine you drag these

527
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:11,160
Speaker 12: people in. How are they going to make this any clearer?

528
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,159
Speaker 12: This starts and ends with Donald Trump in ninety minutes.

529
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 12: He stood up there yesterday and it was like you

530
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,640
Speaker 12: were rereading some kind of nineteen eighty four Georgia Well

531
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:24,239
Speaker 12: Orwellian you speak as he went from one side to

532
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 12: the other. This is almost over. It's not over.

533
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 6: We're going to win.

534
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 7: We haven't won.

535
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:30,920
Speaker 12: I mean, it was back and forth, and they won't

536
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,679
Speaker 12: be able to change that, all right.

537
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:36,880
Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanzena and Rick Davis Bloomberg Politics contributors, The both

538
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 2: of them are political panel today. Thank you so much

539
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 2: for joining us here on balance of power.

540
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 10: Stay with us on balance of Power. We'll have much

541
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 10: more coming up after this.

542
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

543
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:55,680
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

544
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 1: Cockway and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You

545
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

546
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:06,400
Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

547
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 4: Remarkable turn. We've been talking about the reversal in oil prices.

548
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 4: We just saw a reversal of a tweet from the

549
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 4: Energy Secretary Kaylee.

550
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 10: This is remarkable.

551
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 4: This is the post that brought crude oil doubti futures

552
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 4: below eighty dollars a barrel. We had a seven handle

553
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 4: a couple of moments ago. It is now gone. After

554
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 4: the tweet was deleted. Chris Wright had said that the

555
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 4: US Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait

556
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:37,639
Speaker 4: of Hormoves to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets.

557
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 4: Even had a video attachment of him making that announcement.

558
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 4: He said it occurred about thirty six hours ago. Kaylee,

559
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 4: the Energy Department or Chris Wright himself, has deleted that tweet.

560
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 10: You retweeted it at one point. It is no longer.

561
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 6: Available, no longer available.

562
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:53,960
Speaker 2: Of course, the tweet being deleted is not the same

563
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 2: as the Energy Department coming out and saying that this

564
00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:58,680
Speaker 2: rescored didn't happen, or that this wasn't successful. We do

565
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 2: not know that for sure, but certainly the market is

566
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 2: trying to take a queue here knowing that it really

567
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 2: has been very, very vulnerable to each and every headline

568
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 2: crosses about this. We saw the reversal that happened yesterday

569
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 2: on the headline of Trump speaking on the phone with

570
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 2: CBS suggesting the war will be over soon. So this

571
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:20,440
Speaker 2: is clearly just a market that is twitchy.

572
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 10: Well, that's for sure.

573
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 4: I want to say the President says, has the yips

574
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:27,040
Speaker 4: Right now, Crude oil is down about fifteen percent. We're

575
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 4: still looking at big the clients here today, but back

576
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 4: above eighty dollars, just about eighty one dollars.

577
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 10: A barrel right now.

578
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 4: Energy stocks haven't been moving a lot here as we

579
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 4: wait for the next cues on what the President's talking about,

580
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:41,560
Speaker 4: essentially ensuring these shipments through the strait, but the straight

581
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 4: outside of this ship is still largely, if not closed, unused.

582
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:49,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, and remember President Trump on true Social overnight suggested

583
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 2: that if Ron does anything to stop the flow of

584
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:53,840
Speaker 2: oil within the Strait of Foremus, that they will be

585
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 2: hit by the United States of America twenty times harder

586
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 2: than they have been hit thus far, going on to say, death,

587
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 2: fire and fury will rain upon them. So we want

588
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 2: to get into this now with Aaron David Miller, who's

589
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 2: joining us from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace where

590
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:09,720
Speaker 2: he is a senior fellow. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV

591
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 2: and Radio Aeron. It's great to have you. When you

592
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 2: consider the rhetoric we have heard from President Trump just

593
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 2: in the last twenty four hours, let alone over the

594
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 2: course of the last ten eleven days, where are we

595
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 2: right now on the escalatory or de escalatory.

596
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 7: Curve, I mean, wandering all over the parking lot.

597
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 13: This is a war of choice, not necessity, and wars

598
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 13: of choice wars of discretion, the metrics and standards for

599
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 13: valuing success are much higher because presumably in a war

600
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 13: of choice, there was no imminent or media threat to

601
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 13: the security of prosperity of the United States. And frankly,

602
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:48,760
Speaker 13: as a February twenty third, that statement still stands. The

603
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:52,680
Speaker 13: administration has toggled back and forth. I think they've settled

604
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 13: more or less on a narrative. Then not only did

605
00:30:56,720 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 13: the president and the Israelis help kill these Alih the

606
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 13: supreme leader.

607
00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 7: And by the way, this is.

608
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 13: A transformative act, There's no doubt about it. Iran is

609
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:09,720
Speaker 13: not going to be the same country after the decade's

610
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 13: rule of a guy who basically championed death disral death

611
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 13: to America, used proxies to spread Iranian influence in four

612
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 13: or five capitals, and frankly bankrupted the country by the

613
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 13: pursuit of a nuclear weapon or at least a nuclear

614
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 13: weapons program. But I think they've settled on a narrative

615
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 13: that they have basically undermined, to use the President's favorite word,

616
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 13: obliterated Iran's capacity to project its power abroad, and with

617
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 13: the Israelis taken a major whack at the instruments of

618
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:46,480
Speaker 13: state repression that have been used to repress and oppress

619
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 13: demonstrations and the Iranian public for decades. Regime change, no,

620
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 13: I think after eleven days it seems to be clear

621
00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 13: that the headline is the trend line, that this is

622
00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 13: the I ergy see and remember, to control a run,

623
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 13: you need access to money, You need access to guns,

624
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 13: and you need access to oil. And the fact is

625
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:16,560
Speaker 13: there's only one organization, Security Services and the i ERGC

626
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 13: that has that sort of influence and power. So eleven

627
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 13: days in I mean, can we speculate the work would

628
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 13: be over next week. It could last for another several weeks.

629
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 13: This is the problem with the war without defined objectives.

630
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 4: Well, so we have a new supreme leader, the regime

631
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 4: is holding, as you're pointing out here, Aaron David Miller,

632
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 4: and we wanted to talk to you about some of

633
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 4: the sunlight that we're finding between us and Israeli objectives.

634
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 4: Does the Isatolas Son, the new supreme leader, have a

635
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 4: price on his head? Does he need to stay indoors

636
00:32:57,720 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 4: for the foreseeable future?

637
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 7: Would think yeah.

638
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 13: Hasan Nosrolaad of Hasibllad the Israelis killed in the fall

639
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 13: of twenty twenty four. His successor, Hashim Safa Dean, lasted

640
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 13: six days. Maybe Mushtaba Hamini will last longer.

641
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 7: But I think no.

642
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 13: These earlies are going after leadership targets. They live in

643
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:24,000
Speaker 13: the neighborhood and on this one, Look, let's be clear,

644
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 13: we're Venus, the Israelis are Mars. These earlies really do

645
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 13: have an existential threat should Iran actually cross the nuclear

646
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:35,720
Speaker 13: threshold from a threshold weapon state to an actually to

647
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 13: an actual weapons state, so they're in that respect. Benjamin

648
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 13: nathaniel I think would like to see the war last

649
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 13: for another several months so the Israelis can continue to degrade,

650
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 13: not just Iran's a ballistic missile production and its inventory,

651
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 13: but the leadership targets as well. But make no mistake,

652
00:33:56,800 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 13: when Donald Trump decides the war is over, Benjamin Nathanielle

653
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 13: will comply. Rarely has an American president I worked in

654
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 13: administrations from Jimmy Carter to Bush forty three and I

655
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:13,919
Speaker 13: throwing Obama and Biden into that mix. Rarely ever has

656
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 13: an American president had more leverage over an Israeli prime minister.

657
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 13: Because for Nathanielle, the one organizing principle in twenty twenty

658
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 13: six is not Iran, it's not gaz.

659
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 10: It's not Lebanon. It's reelection.

660
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:28,440
Speaker 13: And the fact is, if the government goes to term

661
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:31,720
Speaker 13: in October twenty twenty six, or if elections are advanced,

662
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 13: which they may be until June or July, Benjamin Nathaniell

663
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 13: needs Donald Trump as an active campaigner, not as a

664
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 13: passive one, an active campaigner, which means that when Trump

665
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 13: says jump the issue for Nathaniell, maybe I'm fresing it

666
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:51,280
Speaker 13: at tattoo strongly?

667
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 10: Is how high?

668
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 7: So?

669
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 13: No, if Donald Trump wants the war over and Israelis

670
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 13: to stand down or to de escalate or push it

671
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,840
Speaker 13: into another phase, Ntonia is going to comply.

672
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 6: But what about Iran? Is Iran likely to comply?

673
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:14,320
Speaker 13: And that is the key issue. Will the Rans let

674
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 13: Donald Trump de escalate? That is a critically important question

675
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:23,839
Speaker 13: because what Iran has now established is one regime stability

676
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:28,960
Speaker 13: and the cohesiveness of the Revolutionary Guard, and two that

677
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 13: what they are we're calling horizontal escalation. They can't go

678
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 13: up directly against the US military or the Israeli military,

679
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 13: but they can escalate horizontally over a discrete area. And

680
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 13: they're demonstrating with a terrifying clarity the power they have

681
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 13: and they probably latent capacity if they're holding stuff back,

682
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:56,320
Speaker 13: and I think they are to basically make life extremely uncomfortable,

683
00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:59,319
Speaker 13: both for oil markets and for the Gulf States who

684
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 13: craves security and stability and thought when they allowed the

685
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 13: Chinese Saudis to broker this Dayton between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

686
00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 13: That's what they were getting. And look, guys, in this

687
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 13: part of the world, geography is destiny.

688
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:16,960
Speaker 7: And as far as the ghost Stags.

689
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 13: Are concerned, yeah, they can continue to rely in the

690
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 13: United States, but it hasn't stopped the Iranians from disrupting

691
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:29,280
Speaker 13: life basically as they know it. The proximity guarantees vulnerability,

692
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:31,279
Speaker 13: and they are vulnerable.

693
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 4: It's great to have you back, Aaron, David Miller, Senior

694
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 4: Fellow Carnegie and Dwman for International Peace, who have been

695
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:39,400
Speaker 4: looking forward to this conversation.

696
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:40,799
Speaker 10: Erin thank you for being part of it.

697
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 4: I'm Joe Matthew and Washington alongside Kaylee Lyons. The Tuesday

698
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 4: edition of Balance of Power takes a strange turn today

699
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 4: as we learned that the Energy Department has deleted the

700
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:54,479
Speaker 4: post that got the markets churning a short time ago

701
00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:57,000
Speaker 4: for the better. We had a seven handle on crude oil,

702
00:36:57,520 --> 00:36:59,879
Speaker 4: and Kaylee, it looks like we've given that up about

703
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:02,320
Speaker 4: eighty one dollars. Still down quite a bit, down sharply

704
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 4: fifteen percent, but evidence of a US military escort for

705
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 4: an oil tanker through the Strait got investors attention. That

706
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,919
Speaker 4: is what Energy Secretary Chris Wright was announcing in the post.

707
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 4: It has since been deleted, so we don't know if

708
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:17,879
Speaker 4: that did occur or if there are more nuances around

709
00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 4: this story. But Kaylee were certainly pairing some of the

710
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 4: losses that we saw before.

711
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:24,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, so let's get into this now with Jeff Mason,

712
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:26,359
Speaker 2: who's a White House correspondent for US.

713
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:28,280
Speaker 6: Here a Bloomberg here with us in our DC studio.

714
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:30,799
Speaker 2: Jeff, do we have a sense of whether this did

715
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:33,839
Speaker 2: indeed happen and maybe it's just the rollout of communication

716
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:36,320
Speaker 2: failed or was this something that hasn't happened yet and

717
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 2: they jumped the gun.

718
00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:38,800
Speaker 7: No sense yet, it's very fresh.

719
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 14: I will say that there's a White House briefing coming

720
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:42,719
Speaker 14: up at two o'clock, so that will be an opportunity

721
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 14: to ask directly at the briefing what the deal is.

722
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 14: Here are a couple scenarios. Number one, it could be

723
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:52,839
Speaker 14: that it didn't happen. You're right to ask that. Number two,

724
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 14: it could be the communication issue. Number three, and related

725
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,319
Speaker 14: to number two, it could be that the secretary is

726
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 14: got ahead with what is major news of the president,

727
00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:06,920
Speaker 14: and that's always a no no in the cabinet, and

728
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 14: President Trump in particular likes to announce big news. You

729
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 14: may recall the day that the Iran war was announced,

730
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 14: we were waiting for confirmation that the Supreme Leader had

731
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:20,600
Speaker 14: been killed. That confirmation ended up coming directly from the

732
00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:22,879
Speaker 14: President because that was a major headline and he wanted

733
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 14: to make it. It's possible that that's the case here. I

734
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 14: don't know that just laying out some potential scenarios, do.

735
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:31,439
Speaker 4: You get the sense that this administration is aware of

736
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 4: how sensitive the energy market is to each word that's

737
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 4: coming out of the White House, because the rhetoric has

738
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 4: been a little confusing for the last twenty four hours.

739
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:42,360
Speaker 14: True that, I think that the administration and the President

740
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:45,040
Speaker 14: himself are aware of the impact that this war is

741
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:48,320
Speaker 14: having on energy markets. We're certainly aware of how important

742
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 14: it is to bring those prices down. We've talked a

743
00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:54,279
Speaker 14: lot on these shows and when we're together about the

744
00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:58,000
Speaker 14: political impact of this war and the political risk of

745
00:38:58,080 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 14: higher gasoline prices heading into the mid terms for President Trump.

746
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 14: So I think you saw some of that at play

747
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:06,279
Speaker 14: with his comments yesterday suggesting that the war was going

748
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 14: to end earlier than he has said but then offering

749
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:11,960
Speaker 14: a contradictory comment on that later when he said that

750
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 14: there could be even harsher attacks. So that's a long

751
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:18,319
Speaker 14: way of saying, Joe, yes, I think they do realize that,

752
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 14: and yet it doesn't necessarily make them more careful.

753
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:25,360
Speaker 2: Well, so, regardless of what happened here, the fact that

754
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 2: a post was made and then deleted, does that not

755
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:30,360
Speaker 2: just speak to the idea that across the varying cabinets

756
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 2: within the Trump administration, there is a serious messaging challenge,

757
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:36,280
Speaker 2: an inconsistent messaging challenge when it comes to this conflict

758
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:36,799
Speaker 2: and on.

759
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:39,760
Speaker 14: An issue that, as you just said, is supermarket moving.

760
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:43,880
Speaker 14: I mean, this is not just a message about something

761
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 14: going on at the White House or a new event

762
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:49,360
Speaker 14: or whatever might end up on a social media post.

763
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 14: This is something that is directly connected to the war,

764
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 14: connected to people's businesses, and connected to financial markets.

765
00:39:56,920 --> 00:39:59,800
Speaker 4: So we're going to be hearing from the Press secretary momentarily.

766
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 4: The hour's supposed to have a White House Press briefing,

767
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:03,920
Speaker 4: whether it begins on time or not. As someone who

768
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:05,880
Speaker 4: spent a lot of time in that front row, what

769
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 4: is her job today and what's the question you'd be asking.

770
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:10,359
Speaker 14: Well, I think because of the news that we just

771
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 14: are talking about, I think my first question would be

772
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 14: just that did this actually happen? Can you tell us

773
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:19,080
Speaker 14: what happened? You know what ship it was, how did

774
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:22,280
Speaker 14: it go? And if not, then how in the world

775
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:24,880
Speaker 14: did it come out already and have to then be

776
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:29,360
Speaker 14: deleted by the Energy secretary. Also, if it happened and

777
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 14: you're confirming that, then why was the post deleted? And

778
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 14: what's the backstory?

779
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:33,840
Speaker 10: And would you expect an answer?

780
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 14: Not necessarily? I mean, oh, Joe, you're putting me on

781
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:40,960
Speaker 14: the spot here. No, I mean I think definitely she

782
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:43,120
Speaker 14: will come out with some kind of information about that.

783
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:45,799
Speaker 14: She can't really not come out without information about it.

784
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 14: But we may not get all the backstory.

785
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:48,319
Speaker 13: Yep.

786
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 4: Well, we'll keep tabs on what is said in that

787
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:55,919
Speaker 4: briefing room with the help of Jeff Mason. Thank god

788
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 4: you're on board, and thank you for jumping in here

789
00:40:57,600 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 4: in the clutch with great analysis. As always, thanks for

790
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:04,080
Speaker 4: listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to

791
00:41:04,120 --> 00:41:07,240
Speaker 4: subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever

792
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:09,919
Speaker 4: you get your podcasts, and you can find us live

793
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:11,600
Speaker 4: every weekday from Washington, DC.

794
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 10: At noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com