WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: September 21, 2022 - Hour 2 (Radio) 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:05.920 Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Burger Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:06.000 --> 0:00:10.039 day Break for Wednesday, September one. Coming up this hour, 0:00:10.320 --> 0:00:13.680 Wall Street braces for today's FED decision. In j Powell 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:17.400 news conference, Oil spikes higher after Vladimir Putin steps up 0:00:17.400 --> 0:00:20.400 his war against Ukraine. We're live with the latest, and 0:00:20.520 --> 0:00:24.239 Bank CEO s head the Capitol Hill to testify before Congress. 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:27.720 President Biden headlines a Democratic fundraiser in New York City 0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:32.040 lost a special Master expresses skepticism about Donald Trump's legal arguments. 0:00:32.200 --> 0:00:35.440 I'm Michael Barr. More ahead, I'm h Stashown Sports, Aaron 0:00:35.560 --> 0:00:38.280 Judge in his sixty home RHMA Yankees. Then one on 0:00:38.320 --> 0:00:40.920 a walk off Grand Slam the met for the dramatic 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:45.280 comeback victory. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:50.360 on Bloomberg eleven, Trio, New York, Bloomberg Washington, d C, 0:00:50.760 --> 0:00:55.120 Bloomberg one O six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, San Francisco, 0:00:55.480 --> 0:00:58.760 Sirius x M one nineteen and around the world on 0:00:58.840 --> 0:01:02.360 Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via the Bloomberg Business Act. 0:01:07.240 --> 0:01:10.560 Good morning, I'm Nathan Hagar, and I'm Karen Moscow when 0:01:10.640 --> 0:01:14.440 US Dock Index futures are rising. This morning, we're coming 0:01:14.480 --> 0:01:15.920 up to six o one on Wall Street, and we 0:01:16.040 --> 0:01:18.520 check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. 0:01:18.600 --> 0:01:21.600 On Bloomberg, Guess and P futures now up about twelve 0:01:21.600 --> 0:01:25.440 points now futures of one one and NOUNCEDAY futures up seventeen. 0:01:25.880 --> 0:01:28.200 The decks in Germany is up about a tenth of 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:31.040 upper cent and at ten your treasury of eight thirty 0:01:31.120 --> 0:01:34.200 seconds yell three point five three percent. They yield on 0:01:34.280 --> 0:01:36.760 the two year is at three point nine four percent, 0:01:36.880 --> 0:01:41.279 and Bitcoin this morning is at nineteen thousand dollars. Nathan Karen, 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:43.760 we begin with the key meeting Wall Street's been waiting 0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:46.560 for all week. This afternoon we find out just how 0:01:46.640 --> 0:01:49.920 much the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. Let's get a 0:01:49.920 --> 0:01:54.480 preview from Bloomberg Economics correspondent Michael McKee. Federal Reserve officials 0:01:54.480 --> 0:01:56.680 are about to put numbers on the pain they've been 0:01:56.680 --> 0:01:59.720 warning of in recent weeks. The benchmark US interest rate 0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:02.440 will go up likely three quarters of a percentage point. 0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:06.280 But most importantly, they will publish new projections for the economy, 0:02:06.400 --> 0:02:09.760 which are likely to show slower growth and substantial rise 0:02:09.800 --> 0:02:13.440 in unemployment ahead. All that will be reflected in higher 0:02:13.480 --> 0:02:16.800 interest rates, and those interest rates will stay higher for longer, 0:02:17.400 --> 0:02:20.000 all of which makes the dot plot the most important 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:22.560 news out of the meeting. It's not what the Fed 0:02:22.639 --> 0:02:26.760 does now, but what it signals about what's next. Michael McKee, 0:02:26.800 --> 0:02:30.200 Bloomberg Daybreak, Right, Michael, thank you well ahead of that decision, 0:02:30.320 --> 0:02:32.919 one former FED official is calling for the Central Bank 0:02:33.000 --> 0:02:36.520 to continue aggressive policy. Be caught up with former Atlanta 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:40.680 Fed president Dennis Lonkheart. I believe they'll do seventy five, 0:02:41.040 --> 0:02:44.480 but I cannot fully rule out a hundred. I can 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:48.040 rule out fifty. There's no justification for dialing back at 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:51.200 this point, but I think, I really think the highest 0:02:51.200 --> 0:02:55.639 probability is seventy. Farmer Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart made 0:02:55.639 --> 0:02:58.880 the comments in an interview with Bloomberg's Kathleen Hayes. Well. 0:02:58.880 --> 0:03:01.799 One top economists think the Fed is going too far 0:03:01.880 --> 0:03:05.280 and raising rates, Karen David Rosenberg Rosenberg Research, says the 0:03:05.320 --> 0:03:09.720 negative impact will be felt next year. Everybody applauding Power 0:03:09.800 --> 0:03:12.360 right now for doing what he's doing to cruss Yesterday's story, 0:03:12.360 --> 0:03:16.280 which is called inflation is going to be ruining the day, uh, 0:03:16.440 --> 0:03:18.959 twelve months from now, when the recession is going to 0:03:19.040 --> 0:03:22.120 be deepening and we're not gonna have any idea how 0:03:22.120 --> 0:03:24.720 we're going to get out of it. David Rosenberg Rosenberg 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:27.960 Research made those comments on Bloomberg Surveillance. Join us for 0:03:28.000 --> 0:03:30.760 a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance of live coverage of 0:03:30.800 --> 0:03:33.480 the FED decision. It's coming up at one thirty pm 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:37.280 Wall Street Time on Bloomberg Radio and Television. Hell another 0:03:37.280 --> 0:03:40.840 major story we're following this morning, Nathan focuses on Russia's 0:03:40.960 --> 0:03:45.080 ongoing war in Ukraine. Moscow is preparing to escalate the conflict. 0:03:45.320 --> 0:03:48.480 Vladimir Putin is vowing to use all means necessary in 0:03:48.480 --> 0:03:51.800 the war and announced what he calls a partial mobilization. 0:03:52.240 --> 0:03:55.080 To get more from Bloomberg's Maria today O in Brussels, 0:03:55.600 --> 0:03:58.240 the war is going to continue for longer. If you 0:03:58.280 --> 0:04:01.760 thought there was a diplomatic past solution possible to this 0:04:01.880 --> 0:04:03.720 in the medium term, I mean, I think after this 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:05.840 you can really kiss it goodbye because it's not going 0:04:05.920 --> 0:04:08.200 to happen. And then the other issue is that it 0:04:08.280 --> 0:04:11.680 does speak to some extent to the urgency of the 0:04:11.760 --> 0:04:16.440 Russian army to provide additional manpower to what is now 0:04:16.560 --> 0:04:20.480 a very messy front line for Russia, especially in the 0:04:20.520 --> 0:04:24.479 week of that counter offensive from the Ukrainian army last week. 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:26.760 It had been an embarrassment. We had been waiting for 0:04:26.839 --> 0:04:30.400 the response, and now we have it here. Bloomberg's Maria 0:04:30.440 --> 0:04:33.080 today O says oil is spiking on news of Russia's 0:04:33.120 --> 0:04:36.880 mobilization and checking prices right now nine nights screwed oil 0:04:37.040 --> 0:04:39.120 is up two and a half percent, up two dollars 0:04:39.120 --> 0:04:41.760 sixteen cents and eighty six dollars ten cents of barrel. 0:04:42.080 --> 0:04:44.160 Brent is also up two and a half percent and 0:04:44.240 --> 0:04:48.080 ninety two cents Lakaren. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is also 0:04:48.160 --> 0:04:50.840 dominating talks at the United Nations General Assembly in New 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:53.680 York City. Bloomberg's and Marie Hordern is there and filed 0:04:53.680 --> 0:04:57.040 this report. HUINE will be holding sham votes as soon 0:04:57.080 --> 0:05:01.000 as this weekend to absorb four regions into Russia that 0:05:01.040 --> 0:05:03.920 are part of Ukraine. We spoke to NATO Secretary of 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:06.719 General Again Sultenberg, who says this does not change the 0:05:06.720 --> 0:05:12.040 facts on the ground. Such some votes referendums do not 0:05:12.160 --> 0:05:16.080 have any legitims and therefore they don't change the nature 0:05:16.279 --> 0:05:20.279 of the conflict. This remains a war aggression by or 0:05:20.320 --> 0:05:24.279 shy against the independent sovereign nation in Europe. Biden will 0:05:24.279 --> 0:05:27.280 be addressing the Assembly on Wednesday, and according to his 0:05:27.360 --> 0:05:30.080 National security advisor Jake Sullivan, where he will want to 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:33.200 communicate is that he pushes back against aggressors who seek 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:37.240 to threaten, coerce and intimidate their members, or to violently 0:05:37.279 --> 0:05:41.880 attack them. Henry Hardern Bloomberg News New York and Marie 0:05:41.880 --> 0:05:44.640 thank you back in the nation's capital. The country's biggest 0:05:44.640 --> 0:05:47.359 banks are also in focus today. Top executives had to 0:05:47.400 --> 0:05:50.680 Capital Hill for two days of testimony on the banking industry. 0:05:50.960 --> 0:05:54.839 To get that story from Bloomberg's Jeff Bellinger. House Committee 0:05:54.839 --> 0:05:58.520 hearing on banking accountability is set for today. A Senate 0:05:58.520 --> 0:06:01.599 panel will hold a hearing on annual oversight of the 0:06:01.680 --> 0:06:05.200 nation's largest banks tomorrow. The CEO of JP Moore can 0:06:05.279 --> 0:06:09.440 Chase plans to tell the lawmakers that increasing capital requirements 0:06:09.480 --> 0:06:13.479 for big banks is bad for America. Jamie Diamonds prepared 0:06:13.480 --> 0:06:16.400 remarks hit on a range of issues, and he says 0:06:16.520 --> 0:06:19.680 his firm plays an important role in the global economy. 0:06:20.000 --> 0:06:24.120 He warns of harm from arbitrary increases in capital requirements. 0:06:24.400 --> 0:06:27.679 The CEOs of Bank of America, Wells Fargo when City 0:06:27.720 --> 0:06:32.000 Group will also be heard from Jeff Bublinger Bloomberg Day Break. 0:06:32.120 --> 0:06:34.240 All right, Jeff, thanks. Another note this morning on Wall 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:36.800 Street Banks they're likely to lose about six hundred million 0:06:36.800 --> 0:06:39.960 dollars after unloading debt for the biout of Citric Systems. 0:06:40.200 --> 0:06:43.440 Investors required significantly higher yields than banks had promised to 0:06:43.480 --> 0:06:46.800 private equity firms Vista Equity and Elliott Investment Management. That 0:06:46.880 --> 0:06:49.680 forced Goldman, Sachs, Bank of America and others to absorb 0:06:49.680 --> 0:06:53.720 the losses. And another major corporation is making hiring changes. 0:06:53.839 --> 0:06:57.280 Nathan Boeing is cutting accountants and hiring more engineers. The 0:06:57.320 --> 0:07:00.880 airplane maker plans to outsource about a hundred fifty accounting 0:07:00.920 --> 0:07:04.440 and finance jobs as it shrinks its corporate structure. At 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:08.080 the same time, it'll increase hiring to support engineering, manufacturing, 0:07:08.360 --> 0:07:12.080 and product development. Again, future is moving higher this morning, 0:07:12.200 --> 0:07:15.600 and straight ahead, we have your latest local headlines, plus 0:07:15.640 --> 0:07:23.480 a check of sports. And this is Bloomberg Scaring six 0:07:23.520 --> 0:07:26.000 o seven on Wall Street sixty four degrees in Central Park. 0:07:26.120 --> 0:07:28.360 Still dealing with that accident clean up on the southbound 0:07:28.360 --> 0:07:31.400 Major League in New Yankee Stadium. Michael Barr is here 0:07:31.440 --> 0:07:33.200 with what else is going on in New York and 0:07:33.320 --> 0:07:36.320 around the world. Good morning, Michael, Good morning Nathan. President 0:07:36.400 --> 0:07:39.320 Joe Biden headlined a fundraiser in New York last night. 0:07:39.640 --> 0:07:43.600 It raised about two million dollars for Democratic Party organizations. 0:07:43.800 --> 0:07:47.040 It featured celebrity guests, including actor Robert de Niro and 0:07:47.240 --> 0:07:50.640 Mayor Eric Adams. The event, on the night before Biden's 0:07:50.680 --> 0:07:53.920 addressed to the U n General Assembly, was held at 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:57.200 the Manhattan home of designer and Democratic activists Henry Munio's 0:07:57.680 --> 0:08:02.480 Venezuela migrants flown to Marthas Vineyard in Massachusetts sued Florida 0:08:02.520 --> 0:08:06.640 Governor Around des Santis and as Transportation Secretary, accusing them 0:08:06.680 --> 0:08:11.680 of a fraudulent and discriminatory scheme to relocate them. Texas 0:08:11.680 --> 0:08:14.520 Sheriff has opened an investigation into the flights as well. 0:08:14.920 --> 0:08:17.960 Massachusetts Governor Charley Baker. I am very glad that the 0:08:18.000 --> 0:08:21.080 sheriff chose to open an investigation. I think that's the 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:24.160 right thing to do. Meanwhile, Governor de Santis says many 0:08:24.240 --> 0:08:27.160 of the migrants and asylum seekers want to go to Florida, 0:08:27.200 --> 0:08:29.720 and he means to stop them. We have to go 0:08:29.760 --> 0:08:31.960 and figure out, Okay, who are those people likely to 0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:34.160 be and if you can do it at the source 0:08:34.200 --> 0:08:37.520 and divert to sanctuary jurisdictions, the chance to end up 0:08:37.520 --> 0:08:41.439 in Florida's much less. Governor Dessant has hinted of more flights. 0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:44.760 New York Mayor Eric Adams announced another sign of the 0:08:44.760 --> 0:08:48.400 city's gradual return to the pre pandemic norms, who will 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:52.320 also provide additional flexibility to business by lifting the private 0:08:52.440 --> 0:08:56.880 sector mandate on November first. This put the choice in 0:08:56.920 --> 0:09:00.120 the hands of New York businesses and its imperative. They 0:09:00.120 --> 0:09:04.200 were asking them to continue to encourage their employees to 0:09:04.320 --> 0:09:08.040 get their vaccines and boost shots. Mayor Adams says they 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:11.400 will continue to require its own workers to be inoculated. 0:09:11.600 --> 0:09:14.600 New York will install surveillance cameras and in subway train 0:09:14.679 --> 0:09:18.040 cars and it push the crackdown on crime underground. Governor 0:09:18.120 --> 0:09:20.840 Hokel says there will be two cameras per train car. 0:09:21.320 --> 0:09:24.520 The Special Master requested by Donald Trump to review thousands 0:09:24.520 --> 0:09:27.800 of documents the FBI ceased from his Mara Longo Home 0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:32.079 express skepticism about some of the former president's arguments. At 0:09:32.080 --> 0:09:34.280 his first hearing in the matter. U S. District Judge 0:09:34.320 --> 0:09:38.000 Raymond Derry pushed back on the Trump lawyer's position that 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:42.680 they didn't need to detail any alleged declassifications of highly 0:09:42.800 --> 0:09:46.319 sensitive records. Hurricane Fiona is threatening to strengthen into a 0:09:46.400 --> 0:09:50.360 Category four storm as it lashes the Turks and Caicos Islands. 0:09:50.600 --> 0:09:53.520 It was forecast to squeeze pass Permuda later this week. 0:09:53.840 --> 0:09:56.440 Global News twenty four hours a day on air and 0:09:56.559 --> 0:10:00.640 on Bloomberg Quicktech, powered by more than journalis finanalyist more 0:10:00.640 --> 0:10:04.520 than twenty countries. Michael Barr, this is Bloomberg, Nathan. Thanks Michael, 0:10:08.760 --> 0:10:10.400 coming up to six ten on All Street Time for 0:10:10.400 --> 0:10:13.080 the Bloomberg Sports Upday with John SANSJN Yathan. A memorable 0:10:13.160 --> 0:10:15.240 night at Yankee Stadium. Didn't look like it would be 0:10:15.280 --> 0:10:16.959 Yanks came up out of the night. That ain't trailing 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:19.040 the fire. It's eight to four, errand judge of going 0:10:19.120 --> 0:10:20.720 over for three with a walk when he let off 0:10:20.720 --> 0:10:23.520 the ninth. So one more chance to join a very 0:10:23.559 --> 0:10:29.079 exclusive club. There goes deep that is hot. Cull Us 0:10:29.200 --> 0:10:35.839 funds gone. He's tied up. Baby. It's a judge and 0:10:36.080 --> 0:10:41.080 Glass this sixtieth home run of the year, and the 0:10:41.080 --> 0:10:44.839 Calso Judge matches Babe Ruth from nineteen seven. Next up, 0:10:44.840 --> 0:10:48.240 of course, Roger Maris is sixty one in sixty one. 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:50.440 The homer made at eight to five. Yankees were hardly 0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:53.280 done against the Pirates will Crow. They loaded the bases, 0:10:53.600 --> 0:10:56.400 will still nobody out John Carlos. Stanton Houston's coming off 0:10:56.400 --> 0:10:59.720 the injured list last month was nine for seventy two 0:10:59.760 --> 0:11:03.880 with thirty strikeouts delivered a walk off grand slam laser 0:11:03.880 --> 0:11:05.920 down the left field line, Yanks one, nine to eight. 0:11:05.960 --> 0:11:09.120 The Yankee debut of Bronxville native Harrison Bader. He drove 0:11:09.200 --> 0:11:11.760 in three runs plenty of drama for the Mets. In Milwaukee, 0:11:11.840 --> 0:11:14.080 they trailed four and up in sixth in Ain't Pete 0:11:14.080 --> 0:11:16.280 Alonzo with his second three and overed as many nights, 0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:19.760 and an inning later Francisco Lindor with a game winning 0:11:19.760 --> 0:11:22.000 grand slam of his own that's won seven five to 0:11:22.080 --> 0:11:24.720 day game ahead of Atlanta. Moriy Wills has died at 0:11:24.760 --> 0:11:26.959 eighty nine, a long time Dodgers short stop. The n 0:11:27.080 --> 0:11:28.800 L m v P in nineteen sixty two when he 0:11:28.880 --> 0:11:31.280 stole a then record one hundred and four basses. A 0:11:31.320 --> 0:11:34.440 couple of Norris Trophy went in defenseman of retired P K. Suban. 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:36.560 Only thirty three, he played for three teams, including the 0:11:36.559 --> 0:11:39.920 Devils and the Dano Chara, who's forty five one time 0:11:39.960 --> 0:11:41.839 islander has been most of his career in Boston. The 0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:45.800 six ft nine inch Jarra tallest player in NHL history. 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:49.760 John Stash Award Bloomberg Sports Nathan Thanks john SMP futures 0:11:49.840 --> 0:11:52.439 up eight point, staff futures have seventy eight nastack futures 0:11:52.480 --> 0:11:55.120 up six points. Ten year treasury up six thirty seconds 0:11:55.160 --> 0:11:58.719 yield three point five three percent. Ahead of the FED decision, 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:03.119 we previewed X Live with Bloomberg's Michael McKee in Washington. 0:12:03.360 --> 0:12:08.559 This is Bloomberg Bloomberg eleven three oh weather mix of 0:12:08.600 --> 0:12:11.000 sun and clouds behind your eighty today and he showers 0:12:11.040 --> 0:12:13.640 will end early tomorrow. Turned partly sunny, little cooler up 0:12:13.640 --> 0:12:17.560 for seventies only, mid sixties, sunny breezy for Friday. Right 0:12:17.600 --> 0:12:24.280 now sixty four in Central Park Markets. Headlines and breaking 0:12:24.280 --> 0:12:27.160 news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:30.839 the Bloomberg Business at and at Bloomberg quick Take, He's 0:12:30.880 --> 0:12:40.360 a Bloomberg business flash and I'm Karen Moscow. And the 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:44.199 stocks are higher along with US stock index futures ahead 0:12:44.200 --> 0:12:47.359 of another expected ray hike from the Federal Reserve, and treasuries, 0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:50.320 Golden the dollar are jumping after Russian President of Vladimir 0:12:50.360 --> 0:12:53.280 pulin And stepped up his roar against Ukraine. We checked 0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:55.680 the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:58.960 Bloomberg S and P futures of about eleven points down, 0:12:58.960 --> 0:13:01.840 futures of ninety two and nastatic features up thirteen. The 0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:05.040 decks in Germany is little changed. CAC in Paris up 0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:07.120 a quarter percent, in the foot Sea one hundred up 0:13:07.160 --> 0:13:09.760 three quarters of a percent. Ten year Treasury up seven 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:12.000 thirty seconds. You have three point five three percent. They 0:13:12.040 --> 0:13:14.360 yield on the two year three point nine five percent. 0:13:14.800 --> 0:13:17.199 NIMEX for oil is up two point four percent of 0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:19.679 two dollars four cents at eighty five dollars ninety eight 0:13:19.720 --> 0:13:22.360 cents of arrol Co makes gold up seven tenths per cent, 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:24.959 or two dollars ten cents at sixteen eighty three. Ten 0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:28.240 announced the euro point nine one two five against the dollar, 0:13:28.320 --> 0:13:30.920 British pound one point one three four two and again 0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:34.600 one forty three point nine five and bitcoin is up 0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:37.880 about two tents of a percent at nineteen thousand dollars. 0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:40.840 And as a Bloomberg business flash, now here's Michael Barre 0:13:40.920 --> 0:13:43.600 with more on what's going on around the world. Michael Hearin, 0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:46.640 thank you very much. Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced 0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:50.160 a partial mobilization in Russia. The measure appeared to be 0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:53.120 an admission that Moscow's war against Ukraine is not going 0:13:53.160 --> 0:13:56.679 according to plan after nearly seven months of fighting. Amid 0:13:56.760 --> 0:14:00.679 recent battle field losses for the Kremlins forces, Resident Biden 0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:03.600 speaks to the UN General Assembly later this morning, ad 0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:06.200 say the President will accuse Russia, a permanent member of 0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:09.400 the Security Council, of striking at the very heart of 0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:12.240 the u N Charter for innovading Ukraine. Of course, we 0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:16.720 will carry President Biden's address live. In baseball, the Yankees 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:20.120 beat the Pirates nine eight. Aaron Judge it is sixty 0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:23.440 at home run this season, one away from Roger Mara's 0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:26.920 American League record. The Mets and Red Sox one the 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:30.720 Orioles Nationals loss A's and Giants were winners. Global News 0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:33.360 sixty one hours a day on air and on Bloomberg 0:14:33.440 --> 0:14:36.880 Quickday Howard by more than sixty one journalists and analysts 0:14:36.880 --> 0:14:39.640 in more than sixty one countries. I'm Michael bar One. 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:43.480 This is Bloomberg back to what number is? This broadcast 0:14:43.520 --> 0:14:45.960 brought to us by Michael. Thank you. It is a 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:49.520 six nineteen on Wall Street, Live from the Bloomberg Interactive 0:14:49.520 --> 0:14:52.640 Brokers Studios. This is Bloomberg Day Break. Let's turn from 0:14:52.760 --> 0:14:56.240 the number sixty one to seventy five. That's the number 0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:59.360 a lot of market participants have been bandying about as 0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:02.640 we await a Federal Reserve decision in just a few 0:15:02.640 --> 0:15:06.120 hours time. Lets springing. Bloomberg Economics correspondent Michael McKee joining 0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:10.240 us live from our Bloomberg studios in Washington, d C. 0:15:10.560 --> 0:15:15.800 On this FED decision day. As the war on inflation continues, Mike, 0:15:16.360 --> 0:15:19.560 we'll get to see just what kind of weaponry the 0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:23.600 Fed is going to deploy. Yeah, I'm tempted to keep 0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:32.040 the analogy going with the Michael barre but uh and 0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:36.880 no asterisk for Aaron Judge. Anyway, the Fed's going to 0:15:37.000 --> 0:15:40.440 be raising rates and the consensuses for seventy five bases 0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:43.320 points three quarters of a percentage point. That would take 0:15:43.320 --> 0:15:45.240 the rate to the highest in two thousand and eight. 0:15:45.240 --> 0:15:48.400 Of course, at that time rates were coming down, but 0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:54.120 they were the Fed was looking to UH tighten as 0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:59.200 much as possible UH in the this time, so they're 0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:01.840 going up and the question is going to be not 0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:04.480 so much what they do today, but what they do 0:16:04.480 --> 0:16:07.480 down the road, which takes us to the infamous dot plot, 0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:11.840 and and how high they think the terminal rate is 0:16:11.880 --> 0:16:15.760 going to be now and the term. The commentary we've 0:16:15.760 --> 0:16:19.320 heard from Sherman Poal, particularly at Jackson Hole last month, 0:16:19.440 --> 0:16:22.840 is that rates are gonna stay higher for longer, could 0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:27.080 be elevated for some time here, and market participants are 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:31.080 looking for that pivot to slower rates. I guess we 0:16:31.360 --> 0:16:35.360 find out perhaps today when that pivot could happen, or 0:16:35.360 --> 0:16:37.320 at least get some signal of what the Fed is 0:16:37.360 --> 0:16:40.440 going to be looking for. I suspect there will be 0:16:40.480 --> 0:16:45.080 no signal on timing for a pivot UH. What gets 0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:48.640 lost in the confusion in the markets is UH a 0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:52.480 pivot to whether it's a pivot to a smaller monthly 0:16:52.800 --> 0:16:56.600 rate increase, UH say fifty basis points or twenty five 0:16:56.600 --> 0:16:59.880 basis points or a hold. You get to a level 0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:02.040 and keep it there. And then the idea that the 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:03.920 Fed will be cutting rates, And if you look at 0:17:03.960 --> 0:17:07.080 the w I r P function on the Bloomberg, you'll 0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:09.640 see that investors think the Fed is going to start 0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:12.680 cutting rates as soon as May of next year. And 0:17:12.800 --> 0:17:17.119 j P, I'm fairly certain today, will push back strongly 0:17:17.160 --> 0:17:20.240 against that idea. They will probably show us in the 0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:23.040 dot plot that they don't expect any changes until two 0:17:23.080 --> 0:17:27.080 thousand twenty four, and he'll reinforce that message. And what 0:17:27.240 --> 0:17:30.320 kind of reinforcement are we expecting then from the new 0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:34.680 economic projections we're expecting from the Federal Reserve. Well, it's 0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:38.520 really gonna be interesting there is how high they forecast 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:42.399 unemployment in the next two years. It'll give us some 0:17:42.600 --> 0:17:45.920 idea of what they think is tolerable in terms of 0:17:45.960 --> 0:17:48.440 how high it could go. I don't think there'll be 0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:51.160 anything outrageous, but it will be over four percent. So 0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:54.800 how high do they think they need to take unemployment 0:17:54.880 --> 0:17:59.720 or need Monetary policy is likely to influence unemployment to 0:18:00.000 --> 0:18:02.840 at inflation starting to come down, and I suspect that 0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:06.880 we will see the inflation forecasts trimmed a bit. Uh, 0:18:07.000 --> 0:18:10.040 inflation will come down more slowly than it has been 0:18:10.119 --> 0:18:13.920 forecast in the previous projections. At about a minute left here, 0:18:13.960 --> 0:18:16.119 we know Chairman Powell's listening, so let's give him my 0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:18.760 heads up on the question you're gonna be asking him 0:18:19.560 --> 0:18:23.840 when you participate in the news conference Atwotuh. Well, I 0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:28.000 could ask him if Aaron Judge should have an asterisker Harris, 0:18:28.160 --> 0:18:32.360 but I think I will probably give something about how 0:18:32.400 --> 0:18:36.400 surprised the Fed was by the strength of the economy 0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:39.600 and the strength of inflation, because they've been raising rates 0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:43.520 significantly for about six months now and we're not seeing 0:18:43.520 --> 0:18:46.080 a whole lot of impact other than in housing. Yeah, 0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:50.840 and not seeing it much in the core either. And uh, 0:18:52.000 --> 0:18:55.600 we've seen where rates have gone at this point. Do 0:18:55.720 --> 0:18:57.639 we are are we expecting that we're going to get 0:18:57.680 --> 0:19:03.680 any idea Mike about what the Fed thinks restrictive is. Well, 0:19:03.680 --> 0:19:07.040 that's a good question, because restrictive means different things to 0:19:07.200 --> 0:19:10.639 different people. Long run, they think neutral is two and 0:19:10.680 --> 0:19:13.080 a half percent, But at this point, because inflation is 0:19:13.119 --> 0:19:15.560 so high, they have to go higher. How much higher? 0:19:15.920 --> 0:19:19.560 That's a bit of a disagreement among them, but you know, 0:19:19.600 --> 0:19:22.359 everybody's a hawk at this point, so it's somewhere in 0:19:22.400 --> 0:19:24.600 the fours. That's a question of how close you get 0:19:24.640 --> 0:19:27.159 to five, or if there's anybody who thinks you need 0:19:27.240 --> 0:19:29.720 to go over five. Thanks for this, Mike good having 0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:32.560 on with us this morning. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Economics and 0:19:32.600 --> 0:19:36.280 Policy correspondent ahead of the FED decision two pm, Wall 0:19:36.320 --> 0:19:38.960 Street Time, Michael B there for the news conference with 0:19:39.080 --> 0:19:43.080 Chairman Pallett two thirty. Our coverage begins at one thirty 0:19:43.160 --> 0:19:47.359 pm with a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance across Bloomberg 0:19:47.480 --> 0:19:52.119 Radio and Bloomberg Television. Right now, SMP futures are up 0:19:52.200 --> 0:19:55.399 seven points down, futures up sixty five nastat futures little 0:19:55.480 --> 0:19:57.680 change to the upside. The ten year treasury is up 0:19:57.680 --> 0:20:01.440 five thirty seconds, yield three point five four per cent. 0:20:01.760 --> 0:20:10.360 This is Bloomberg six Bloomberg eleven three oh weather mix 0:20:10.440 --> 0:20:13.560 of sun and clouds behind your eighty today, upper seventies, Tomorrow, 0:20:14.000 --> 0:20:17.400 mid sixties Friday with sunshine in a breeze. Right now 0:20:17.480 --> 0:20:28.080 sixty four in Central Park, broadcasting live from the Bloomberg 0:20:28.119 --> 0:20:31.840 Interactive Broker studio in New York, Bloomberg E Living Freedom 0:20:31.960 --> 0:20:35.120 to Washington, d C, Bloomberg nine nine one to Boston, 0:20:35.240 --> 0:20:38.640 Bloomberg one O six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine 0:20:38.720 --> 0:20:41.800 six to the country, Sirius XM chto one nine team, 0:20:41.920 --> 0:20:45.080 and around the globe the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg 0:20:45.160 --> 0:20:54.240 Radio dot com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak six thirty on 0:20:54.280 --> 0:20:57.560 Wall Street. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hagar and I'm Karen Moscow. 0:20:57.640 --> 0:20:59.800 We're just about three hours away from the open of 0:20:59.840 --> 0:21:01.800 you s training. Time to the five things that you 0:21:01.880 --> 0:21:03.760 need to know to start your day. Brought to you 0:21:03.800 --> 0:21:08.560 by Interactive Brokers ibk OUR Investment Advisors, which to interactive 0:21:08.560 --> 0:21:12.120 brokers for lowest cost global trading and turnkey custody solutions, 0:21:12.119 --> 0:21:14.960 no ticket charges and no complex of your interests at 0:21:14.960 --> 0:21:18.520 ib k R dot com slash r i A. First, 0:21:18.520 --> 0:21:21.080 you find out how much the feder reserved race interest race. 0:21:21.160 --> 0:21:24.480 This afternoon. Former Atlanta FED President Dennis Lockhart says he 0:21:24.560 --> 0:21:27.359 expects his seventy five basis point hike, and he thinks 0:21:27.440 --> 0:21:31.440 rates will continue going higher until late next year. It's 0:21:31.520 --> 0:21:35.000 just very unlikely you're going to see a pivot from 0:21:35.240 --> 0:21:39.040 one meeting to the other, going from hawkish to devish overnight. 0:21:39.200 --> 0:21:41.520 So I would expect that once they get to a 0:21:41.600 --> 0:21:44.840 point they feel they need to either pause or stop, 0:21:45.119 --> 0:21:49.720 that rate will be sustained for probably several meetings. Former 0:21:49.720 --> 0:21:52.760 Atlanta FED President Dennis Lockhart tells US there's no case 0:21:52.840 --> 0:21:56.200 for anything less than seventy five basis points today. Stick 0:21:56.240 --> 0:21:58.359 with us for live coverage of the FED decision and 0:21:58.400 --> 0:22:01.040 a special edition of Bloomberg's Your Van Lands beginning at 0:22:01.040 --> 0:22:04.840 one thirty pm Wall Street Time on Bloomberg Radio and television. 0:22:04.920 --> 0:22:07.680 Well caring another major story where following involves an escalation 0:22:07.720 --> 0:22:10.440 by Russia in the war with Ukraine. Vladimir Putin's value 0:22:10.480 --> 0:22:13.919 to mobilized troops. He is renewing nuclear threats and occupation 0:22:13.960 --> 0:22:17.520 authorities installed by Russia have announced referendum votes aimed at 0:22:17.600 --> 0:22:21.439 annexing Ukrainian territory. Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper says that 0:22:21.560 --> 0:22:24.480 vote should not be recognized. These reasons will vote to 0:22:24.600 --> 0:22:27.159 join Russia, to be an X, and that's predictable, and 0:22:27.280 --> 0:22:29.880 Putin will manipulate in whatever way you can. I don't 0:22:29.880 --> 0:22:32.560 think we should recognize him. I think the sovereign territory. 0:22:32.640 --> 0:22:36.240 The boundaries of Ukraine have been identified clearly and recognized 0:22:36.240 --> 0:22:38.640 by the UN since the breakup of the Soviet Union 0:22:38.640 --> 0:22:43.040 in and we should continue to assist Ukraine in restoring 0:22:43.080 --> 0:22:46.400 their complete sovereignty to include CRIMEA former Defense Secretary Mark 0:22:46.520 --> 0:22:49.520 Esper spoke with our Washington correspondent Joe Matthew on Bloomberg 0:22:49.640 --> 0:22:52.200 Sound on Catch the program weekdays at five pm Eastern 0:22:52.200 --> 0:22:55.680 on Bloomberg Radio. Well Nathan, the country's top bank executives, 0:22:55.680 --> 0:22:58.720 are set to spend two days testifying on Capitol Hill. 0:22:58.880 --> 0:23:01.600 JP Morgan, ce O Jamie Diamond is expected to tell 0:23:01.680 --> 0:23:06.000 lawmakers hire capital requirements are bad for America. Follow the 0:23:06.000 --> 0:23:08.480