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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. It's good all.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go throwing em job set. We're sitting up

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Speaker 3: to catch to stop.

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Speaker 4: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to win.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 4: Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate kaban you.

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Speaker 2: Want to pull.

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Speaker 3: And we are come away.

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Speaker 4: And welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 4: Chris Raybond, coming at you for the start of the

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty one NFL season. We're gonna have our six

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Speaker 4: pack of best bets. We're gonna previous Thursday Night football. Uh.

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Speaker 4: It's presented by our friends at BEDMGM. And of course

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Speaker 4: I have my guy with me, the Prime Minister of

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Speaker 4: Degenerate Nation, Stucky stuck. We're back into it, man, what's

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Speaker 4: going on.

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Speaker 3: It's good to be back. Excited to get back into

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Speaker 3: on a weekly basis with you. It's not a lot

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Speaker 3: of sleep, a lot of preparation, a lot of excitement.

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Speaker 3: Just ready to get that first like and Thursday night

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Speaker 3: is gonna be cool. But it's just one game and

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna enjoy it. We'll talk about that game shortly,

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Speaker 3: but that like twelve fifty nine red Zone music, feeling

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Speaker 3: one oh one when all the kickoffs all across the board.

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Speaker 3: I can't wait for that. So yeah, I'm excited. Let's

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Speaker 3: hopefully we can find some winners and have another big season.

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Speaker 3: It's been a successful past couple of years. Let's keep

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Speaker 3: it rolling.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. I was just looking at our Super Bowl prop

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Speaker 4: picks in the outline, and I think we went like

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Speaker 4: six and two one oh, So pose it out strong.

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Speaker 4: We're gonna keep it going. If you guys are new

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Speaker 4: to the podcast, what Stuck and I do is we

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Speaker 4: preview Thursday Night football first, but then we have our

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Speaker 4: Sunday six, which is where we each choose three bets.

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Speaker 4: We have a little draft, you know, back and forth

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Speaker 4: off air, and we kind of pick our top three

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Speaker 4: so we can't overlap. We could go against each other,

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Speaker 4: but our first two picks will be worth two points,

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Speaker 4: and then we'll have a third pick that'll be one.

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Speaker 4: Just sweep them all. You get another point bonus, and

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Speaker 4: we'll also get a point each if we get our

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Speaker 4: totals right, which is a segment after that, so we'll

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Speaker 4: also have teasers. We'll have money line Underdog Parlay of

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Speaker 4: the Week, whoever our Survivor Pool pick of the week,

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Speaker 4: So a lot of it. Yeah, yeah, yeah, So we

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Speaker 4: will do it all. We'll go through every game. If

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Speaker 4: we don't touch on a game in any special segment,

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Speaker 4: we have a segment for that too. Best of the rest.

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Speaker 4: We'll go through every single game. Give you something that

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Speaker 4: you can use to bet or fade each game on

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Speaker 4: Sunday and Thursday and Sunday.

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Speaker 3: This week, by the way, steaks before we go on

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Speaker 3: the steaks. Well, speaking of steaks, I won last year

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Speaker 3: and you won there before actual steaks for dinner. So

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Speaker 3: we show each other at dinner. Yeah, up in New York.

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Speaker 3: We could do two.

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Speaker 4: What's that I'm in La now, boy, remember you said.

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Speaker 3: You're I forgot you move. You're in l A, l A.

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Speaker 3: I'm in l A, Kentucky. Or we're both in New York.

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Speaker 3: We can make this. We'll do some bi coastal dinners.

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Speaker 3: So but the stakes, the actual stakes for this year

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Speaker 3: is we both have an authentic jersey on Raybound City

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Speaker 3: is doing a throwback theme Throwback Thursday theme every Thursday.

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Speaker 3: So I got my head read on. I had to

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Speaker 3: represent for the first one and the loser of this

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Speaker 3: year will have to buy the other authentic throwback.

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Speaker 4: Because you're a You're real good with the college knowledge,

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Speaker 4: and so I think you were like quizzing me or

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Speaker 4: quizzing all of us in trivia when we hung out

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Speaker 4: at a bar one time. So let me see if

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Speaker 4: you can. Who do Who's jersey? Do I have one?

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Speaker 3: Right now? You have all? You have? All bucks on

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Speaker 3: got the How would you say that? What is that

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Speaker 3: crush the orange crush Bucks hat and jersey? I don't know.

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Speaker 3: For some reason, when you first popped up, I thought

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Speaker 3: it was Derek Brooks, but that's he was fifty five fifty.

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Speaker 4: Five very close. You're on the right track.

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Speaker 3: Who else was on that tea? What was the other

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Speaker 3: linebacker on that team?

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Speaker 4: Hardy Nickerson? Hardy Nickerson nineteen ninety three, authentic Hardy Nickerson

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Speaker 4: bus home jersey one of the hardest ones for me

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Speaker 4: to get. So what I've been trying to do If

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Speaker 4: you've been watching the Fantasy Flex, I've been Yeah, I've

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Speaker 4: been throwing on some throwbacks, but I've been trying to

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Speaker 4: get every team's home jersey first. I'll go into the

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Speaker 4: Whites after that, but I'm trying to get every team's

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Speaker 4: home jersey. This one was ridiculous. I mean, these things

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Speaker 4: just aren't floating around out there. So whoever wins has

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Speaker 4: to buy the other in authentic michell and ness. But

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Speaker 4: either way, hopefully you guys win. And before we get

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Speaker 4: into the Thursday night preview, a couple of quick reminders.

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Speaker 4: Number one, if you plan to bet on any sport

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Speaker 4: ever and still haven't downloaded the free, award winning Action

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Speaker 4: Network app, what are you doing? It's got betting tools,

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Speaker 4: it lets you shot for the best lines, it's got

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Speaker 4: analysis from myself, Ducky, the whole Action Network crew, and

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Speaker 4: most importantly, it lets you track every bet that you make.

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Speaker 4: So download the award winning Action Network app.

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Speaker 3: Great app.

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Speaker 4: You won't be disappointed. And number two, with the NFL

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Speaker 4: season officially back, we are at the Action Network have

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Speaker 4: expanded our podcast portfolio. Just mentioned the Fantasy Flex So

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Speaker 4: if you're looking for best in class fantasy football coverage

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Speaker 4: from Sean Kerner and myself, check out the Fantasy Flex pod.

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Speaker 4: We're doing five episodes a week. We've Shawn and myself

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Speaker 4: on three times, Samantha Pervidi we'll be doing a mailbag

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Speaker 4: episode as well. Great stuff. And then if you're bet

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Speaker 4: on college football, you already know you want to hear

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Speaker 4: Stucky and Actions experts on our Big Bets on Campus podcasts,

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Speaker 4: which drops four times a week all season long. So

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Speaker 4: a lot of great stuff for you guys. Really ramping

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Speaker 4: up the content for you guys because you've been great,

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Speaker 4: So continue leaving us those ratings and those reviews and

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Speaker 4: letting us know how you feel about the pod. Anything

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Speaker 4: you want, change, anything different, But we're here for you, guys.

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Speaker 4: And with that, let's get into week one, Thursday Night

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Speaker 4: Football for twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 4: All right, So stuck our line at bet MGM for

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Speaker 4: the Dallas Cowboys at the Tampa Bay Bucaneers. The Bucks

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Speaker 4: up to eight and a half point favorites. That this

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Speaker 4: is getting a little bit out of hands. I like

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Speaker 4: the Bucks, but this is getting a little bit out

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Speaker 4: of hand. Totals fifty one and a half. So initial

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Speaker 4: thoughts on this line, which has been climbing. It was

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Speaker 4: seven and a half at some point this offseason in

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Speaker 4: favor of the Bucks.

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Speaker 3: By the way, we eventually we're gonna see you see

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Speaker 3: some books do this. You're never gonna see a line

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Speaker 3: that's eight in the NFL or seven and a half

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Speaker 3: one day. It's just gonna go from seven to nine.

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Speaker 3: And that's protect against teasers, which we'll get to. But

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Speaker 3: you see some books that will just good to nine

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Speaker 3: and a half. It's an interesting game for Week one

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Speaker 3: for a lot of reasons, and not just that it's

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Speaker 3: a super defending Super Bowl chet that brings back every start.

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Speaker 3: They're gonna be missing their safety white Head, some of

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Speaker 3: their receivers. I think Godwin and Antonio Brown are a

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Speaker 3: little banged up, but you know, we know what the Bucks. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: they're both going to play. They're just a little nicked up.

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Speaker 3: We know who the Bucks are, right. What I'm most

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Speaker 3: interesting to see is number one, how does Dak Prescott

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Speaker 3: look right? All the questions about his health? And Week

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Speaker 3: one for me, you know, I'll probably end up having

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Speaker 3: about five to six bets, which we'll cover on this podcast,

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Speaker 3: but it's really a the week I learned the most

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Speaker 3: about schemes and what certain teams are going to look like.

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Speaker 3: Obviously just one data point, but it's really when you

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Speaker 3: start to see what teams are going to look like

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Speaker 3: that have brand new personnel on one side of the ball,

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Speaker 3: and that's the Cowboys. If dan Quinn brought in as

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Speaker 3: a defensive coordinator and they remade their defense, they're six

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Speaker 3: new starters. Dan Quinn is the single high safety Cover three.

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Speaker 3: King came from the Pete Carroll try. You know, he

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Speaker 3: runs back this time. Atlanta ran cover three like fifty

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Speaker 3: percent of the time, cover one thirty percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: You know why that is important. So there's two main

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Speaker 3: types of defense in the NFL. You'll here middle of

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Speaker 3: the field closed, which is a single high safety. Middle

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Speaker 3: of the field open, which is two high safeties. Dan

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Speaker 3: Quinn's a middle of the field closed guy, single high

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Speaker 3: safety guy, cover one, cover three. Brady last year number

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Speaker 3: one and EPA per play against single high safety looks

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Speaker 3: absolutely shredded them. You know, forces you to make passes

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Speaker 3: on the outside accurately. So and if you look at

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Speaker 3: you know when he was playing against two high safeties

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Speaker 3: and right around average, but he shredded this type of defense.

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Speaker 3: And I'm not sure how it's gonna work. You know,

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Speaker 3: six new starters. Do they have the corners and do

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Speaker 3: they have the free safety? At worked the origin of

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Speaker 3: this defense is in Seattle. You know where you had

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Speaker 3: Earl Thomas. You know, at your free safety roaming sideline

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Speaker 3: to sideline, you had Richard Sherman locking down at your corner.

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Speaker 3: You that really good corner is really good free safety,

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Speaker 3: and then you know Bobby Wagner covering, taking care of

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Speaker 3: the coverage underneath. The Cowboys don't necessarily have that right now,

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Speaker 3: but I'm interested to see what they look like. Dan

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Speaker 3: Quinn did experiment with some two high safety looks in

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Speaker 3: the preseason, and he said he's evolved his defensive scheme.

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Speaker 3: So we'll say maybe he does throw a two safety

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Speaker 3: high up because what I think you need to do

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Speaker 3: that against Brady. So I'll be interested to watch that.

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Speaker 3: Interestingly enough, the Super Bowl champion is eighteen and three

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Speaker 3: straight up in Week one thirteen, six and two against

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Speaker 3: the spread since two thousand, So super Bowl hangover pretty

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Speaker 3: much a myth. It's something that I'm gonna be watching

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Speaker 3: for the box heal seventeen game season, very veteran team.

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Speaker 3: Maybe you catch them, you know, in the first couple

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Speaker 3: of weeks in a certain spot. I don't necessarily think

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Speaker 3: that's here. I made this line a Tad under seven.

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Speaker 3: So would look at the Cowboys if there wasn't other

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Speaker 3: things going on, right, you have Zach Martin who's out,

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Speaker 3: you have todjust the Cowboys for that. For COVID, you

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Speaker 3: have the uncertain with Dak Prescott and how he's gonna

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Speaker 3: look and how healthy he is, so you know, new defense.

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Speaker 3: So for me, you know, after adjusting for some of

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Speaker 3: those factors, I made this line right over seven. It's

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Speaker 3: unfortunately I hate to say this on you know, Thursday night,

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Speaker 3: but it's it's most likely a pass for me. But

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Speaker 3: there's a lot of things that I'll be watching for,

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Speaker 3: specifically with the Cowboys. We know who the Bucks are,

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Speaker 3: how does what does Dak look like? And what does

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Speaker 3: this defense look like? Under dan Quinn. I can't wait

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Speaker 3: for the game, but I won't have a pregame position.

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Speaker 3: Maybe something in the second half or live.

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Speaker 4: I made it seven and a half and that's why

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Speaker 4: I'm kind of bummed that it's getting away from us

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Speaker 4: here because I do think it's Bucks or nothing. I

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Speaker 4: don't have confidence in the Cowboys. All the stuff you

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Speaker 4: mentioned about dan Quinn was very true and very accurate,

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Speaker 4: but the point is he doesn't have no Seattle legion

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Speaker 4: of boom guys here. He was horrible in Atlanta for

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Speaker 4: most of his tenure on defense, to the point where

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Speaker 4: it wasn't until his assistant coaches took over that the

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Speaker 4: defense showed any signs of life there. So you're talking

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Speaker 4: about similar to here.

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Speaker 3: He never had a great defensive roster, doesn't have the

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Speaker 3: players to run it. I mean, it's easy to run

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Speaker 3: your cover three in Seattle when you have the legion

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Speaker 3: of boom.

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Speaker 4: So that worries me. Mike McCarthy is the leader board

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Speaker 4: and a bunch of different lists I've seen for first

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Speaker 4: coach fired. So you're talking about Tom Brady, Bruce Arians, veterans,

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Speaker 4: super Bowl champs, all, you know, just future Hall of

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Speaker 4: famers all over the roster, versus two coaches that are

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Speaker 4: hard to trust outside of their comfort zones. We could

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Speaker 4: call it Dan Quinn with that legion of boom, Mike

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Speaker 4: McCarthy with Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau. These Cowboys do not

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Speaker 4: resemble what these coaches did in other spots. So I

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Speaker 4: don't think you can confidently make a bet and put

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Speaker 4: harder money on the Dallas Cowboys in this game, especially

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Speaker 4: after seeing what Tampa Bay did to a bang up

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Speaker 4: offensive line with a better quarterback and even more explosive

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Speaker 4: off then Dallas in the Super Bowl the last time

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Speaker 4: we've seen them. It's just and let's not forget like

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Speaker 4: the continuity. Like you said, there are just too many

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Speaker 4: factors to where I wouldn't bet minus eight and a

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Speaker 4: half on a favorite, you know, with the line going

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Speaker 4: that direction. That's just not my style of be I

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Speaker 4: don't think you're getting good value there. I think it's

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Speaker 4: still the NFL, but I do think it's bucks or

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Speaker 4: not's it? Like? I can't I can't even look at

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Speaker 4: the Cowboys in this one like it. There's just too

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Speaker 4: many factors going against them for me in this one.

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Speaker 3: So we'll have your prop stuff out there. We have

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Speaker 3: a ton of good content if you're looking for some action.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Sean and I have already you know, dropped our

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Speaker 4: matchup podcast on Fantasy Flex where we go through each

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Speaker 4: matchup now and we'll have a prop specific episode coming

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Speaker 4: out every Friday, so stay tuned for that. But speaking

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Speaker 4: of props, this is another reason why I worry about

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Speaker 4: the Cowboys. Well, two reasons. One, they turned the ball

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Speaker 4: over eleven times in those first five games with Dak

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Speaker 4: like he was making a lot of big plays, but

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Speaker 4: he was also being a little bit more risky than

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Speaker 4: I think we've seen him in years past. So you know,

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Speaker 4: how is that gonna go, especially with a team that

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Speaker 4: you're gonna have to keep pace with. I would lean over,

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Speaker 4: But Zake Elliott's rushing yard prop is fifty two and

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Speaker 4: a half for this game. So if the Cowboys they

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Speaker 4: have issues on the.

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Speaker 3: O line, Dak isn't.

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Speaker 4: We don't know Dak's health, and then you don't expect

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Speaker 4: him to be able to run. Zeke is barely at

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Speaker 4: you know, fifty yards in terms of his prop. I mean,

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Speaker 4: it just doesn't look good for the Cowboys, So I

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Speaker 4: do agree. I think that's probably the play is just

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Speaker 4: tease the Bucks down. I would feel really good about

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Speaker 4: that they can win by a field goal and you

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Speaker 4: win that bet. That's how I would I would approach

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Speaker 4: this one. All right, let's get into for the very

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Speaker 4: first time this NFL season, our Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: They're stey for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: All right again for those new to the show, stuck

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Speaker 4: and I will draft six bets three bets each and

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Speaker 4: we can't pick the same bet, but we can go

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Speaker 4: against each other. It happens here and there. Maybe it

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Speaker 4: would happen today, but kind of kind of happening, but

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Speaker 4: not in the six pack. And two points for our

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Speaker 4: first two bets, one point for our last one, switching

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Speaker 4: it up a little from last year because we usually

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Speaker 4: have more than one. We're super confident, so we kind

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Speaker 4: of want to make it our two best bets, and

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Speaker 4: then you know, still a third one that we like,

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Speaker 4: but maybe there's a little bit of drop off in confidence. Stuck.

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Speaker 4: You won last year, had a really great performance wire

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Speaker 4: to wire, so you got first pick. Where you go.

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Speaker 3: Let's start off the twenty twenty one NFL betting season

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Speaker 3: with a bet on Jameis Winston and the normats.

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Speaker 4: This is the.

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Speaker 1: One you've been waiting for. New Orleans Saints.

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Speaker 3: Plus four and a half. We always talk about bet

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Speaker 3: when're gonna beat Jameson. Bet him as a dog, he's

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Speaker 3: seven to fourteen to one against the spread. As a favorite,

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Speaker 3: he's seventeen to ten and one against the spread as

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Speaker 3: an underdog of more than a field goal high variants quarterback.

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Speaker 3: You want to take him as a dog. This is

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Speaker 3: the Saints home opener. We played in Jacksonville as a

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Speaker 3: result of Hurricane Ida. After adjusting for home fields, some

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Speaker 3: of the Packers' injuries, like back to Ari is not

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Speaker 3: gonna play a zadarias Smith is banged up. I make

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Speaker 3: this like just a tad under a field goal. You

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Speaker 3: know it's on a neutral field, so I grabbed the

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Speaker 3: plus four and a half. You're also backing John Payton,

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Speaker 3: who is absolutely dominant against the spread as an underdog.

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Speaker 3: He's thirty one, thirteen and two against the spread. But

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Speaker 3: you know, when you look at the Packers, there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of turnover on the offensive line. You know, with

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Speaker 3: back Tria, you're kicking Jenkins out to left tackle, You're

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Speaker 3: starting two rookies on the interior. They develop offensive linemen

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Speaker 3: as well as anybody in the NFL. Once you get

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Speaker 3: back to Ali back a lot of these guys that

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Speaker 3: they drafted, they're going to be fine. But there's questions

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Speaker 3: early on in the season against a good Saints defensive

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Speaker 3: line and a good Saints defense of what this offensive

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Speaker 3: line is going to look like. There's a potential for

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Speaker 3: the Saints to really get pressure on Rogers throw them off.

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Speaker 3: There's also on the Saints defense, which is gonna be

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Speaker 3: you know, top ten defense. They lost some pieces, but

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Speaker 3: it's still a really good defense. One of the main

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Speaker 3: questions is at the number two corner spot. You know,

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Speaker 3: you have Lattimore one side, which is good because you're

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Speaker 3: going to geinst one of the best receivers in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: It doesn't really hurt you as much to not have

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Speaker 3: a number two corner in this game. You know, is

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Speaker 3: it Ken Crawley who's been banged up? Whoever it is.

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Speaker 3: They have a rugby move they were trying to acquire Roby.

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Speaker 3: Obviously he's not going to be playing. Yeah, he's suspended

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Speaker 3: for first week. He's carried over last year. Yeah, but

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Speaker 3: I don't think it hurts him as much not having

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Speaker 3: a number two corner and you have three good safeties. Look,

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00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:53,440
Speaker 3: the Packers are going to score, but the Saints defense

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Speaker 3: can hold its own here. And on the other side

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Speaker 3: of the ball, the Saints, what they do have is

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Speaker 3: one of the best offensive line in the NFL. Still,

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Speaker 3: you know, the Packers' best pass rushers, Zadarias Smith, he's

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Speaker 3: banged up. You still have a vulnerable number two corner

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Speaker 3: and Kevin King. It's still you know, and you can

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Speaker 3: run on this Packer's defense, some of it by design.

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Speaker 3: We'll see what the defensive scheme looks like this year,

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Speaker 3: but they're still going to be weak against the run.

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Speaker 3: I think American have a big day. I think that

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Speaker 3: they're going to be able to use you know, Taysom

350
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Speaker 3: Hill in certain you know, certain packages, and he can

351
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Speaker 3: have some success running the ball. Winson will be protected,

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Speaker 3: He'll probably make some mistakes, he probably make some great throws. Ultimately,

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Speaker 3: I think this number is just a tad too high.

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Speaker 3: And the Saints special teams worries me a bit. You know,

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Speaker 3: it's like their punter's gone LUTs is on ir. But

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Speaker 3: the Packers special games are really bad last year, so

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure it's a big advantage there. So give

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Speaker 3: me the four and a half. If I had to

359
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Speaker 3: guess how this game plays out, I would say Packers

360
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Speaker 3: probably come back and win late, Rogers finds away, but

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Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if Winston and the Saints and

362
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Speaker 3: Peyton find a way to win this game in Jacksonville.

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Speaker 3: So I'm rolling with the Saints as my first bet

364
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Speaker 3: of the twenties. Twenty one season.

365
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Speaker 4: Yeah, I make it three and a half. So this

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Speaker 4: this is another line that's gotten away, I think a

367
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Speaker 4: little bit. And unfortunately I bet the Saints when Drew

368
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Speaker 4: Brees hadn't retired yet, so there's nothing I could do

369
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Speaker 4: about that. But yeah, but you know, you know, it's

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Speaker 4: kind of one of those situations where I do agree.

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Speaker 4: I wouldn't be surprised to see the Saints win. Strong

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Speaker 4: line play, you have good coach, you still have Alvin Kamara.

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Speaker 4: You know, obviously it's tough when you're going against Aaron Rodgers,

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Speaker 4: but it's not like it's in LAMBA. I think you

375
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Speaker 4: have a puncher's chance in this game to win out right,

376
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Speaker 4: to cover the number I do. I do kind of

377
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Speaker 4: echo what you said about the special teams. That would

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Speaker 4: probably be my my My main worry is how is

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00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:57,199
Speaker 4: the Saint kicking game gonna fare? Because every point is

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Speaker 4: going to be valuable here.

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Speaker 3: It could end up working in their favorite with you know,

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Speaker 3: with Hill and with Kamara and with advantage in the trenches.

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Speaker 3: I think on both sides of the ball, which is important,

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Speaker 3: I think they're gonna have avengage on both sides, trees,

385
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Speaker 3: both sides, the ball fourth and one. I think they're

386
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Speaker 3: gonna be aggressive. You're gonna see a Hill come in

387
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Speaker 3: there as an underdog. That's what you want. So you know,

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Speaker 3: you might see the Saints be ultra aggressive on fourth

389
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Speaker 3: downs in this game, which is what I would want

390
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Speaker 3: for based on the their offensive line advantage and the

391
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Speaker 3: packages I think that they would have for this game.

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Speaker 4: I think they're in a good spot here. Obviously, it's

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Speaker 4: not ideal playing in Jacksonville instead of the instead of

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Speaker 4: the Supernow, I mean, how much did that cost them

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Speaker 4: in your projections? About point a half or so? Yeah,

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Speaker 4: right around a point and a half.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you could argue that if you just wipe

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Speaker 3: out the entire home field, which is you know, across

399
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Speaker 3: the board it's called the Saints, you can argue that

400
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Speaker 3: one of the best home field advantages in the NFL.

401
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Speaker 3: Home field is trending down overall. I was going to

402
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Speaker 3: be around two point eight to three point two, so

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Speaker 3: I would like it regardless of four and a half.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 4: For my first pick of the Sunday six pack for

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Speaker 4: Week one, I am going with the Washington Football team

407
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Speaker 4: plus one at bet MGM, the official arts provider of

408
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,920
Speaker 4: the Pod against the LA Chargers.

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Speaker 1: At home Washington football team.

410
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Speaker 4: I simply don't think that Washington should be the underdog

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Speaker 4: in this game. I do think both of these teams

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Speaker 4: are gonna be slightly improved from last year. They were

413
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Speaker 4: kind of they were middling teams last year. But I

414
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Speaker 4: think Washington does have an advantage on defense. Remember, you know,

415
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Speaker 4: Washington was number three, top three in defensive DVOA year ago.

416
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Speaker 4: The Chargers were twentieth. Now they're getting you know, Derwin

417
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Speaker 4: James back, but they did lose Ingram Perrim and Heyward.

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Speaker 4: They've lost some talented guys that have been mainstays there.

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Speaker 4: I don't think this Charger defense is gonna be great

420
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Speaker 4: right off the bat with Staley coming over there from

421
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Speaker 4: the Rams, and then on the other side of the ball,

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Speaker 4: I mean, this is a really tough matchup for Justin

423
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Speaker 4: Herbert going against this defense. And on offense, this might

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Speaker 4: be where I like Washington's improvement the most, because we

425
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Speaker 4: know they had a strong defense. I think, you know,

426
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Speaker 4: Herbert's a great quarterback. He'll probably get a couple of

427
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Speaker 4: touchdowns on them regardless. But remember last year it was

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Speaker 4: Dwayne Haskins and Alex Smith starting most of the games

429
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Speaker 4: for the football team, those two guys were bottom three,

430
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:32,200
Speaker 4: and yards per attempt under pressure Haskins average is three

431
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 4: point seven, Smith four point two. Ryan Fitzpatrick was number

432
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 4: two in the whole league in yards per attempt under pressure.

433
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 4: So even if Staley does cook up some things and

434
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 4: they can kind of, you know, get Fitzpatrick under duress,

435
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:49,159
Speaker 4: I think, you know, he's at this stage in his

436
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,399
Speaker 4: career he knows how to beat that. They got a

437
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,880
Speaker 4: good number one receiver mclauren, They got a good pass

438
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:57,359
Speaker 4: catching tight end and Thomas. They fortified the you know,

439
00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:02,120
Speaker 4: the other receiving positions with Samuel Diami Brown. They still

440
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:05,199
Speaker 4: have my kissic, you still have Antonio Gibson. Even if

441
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 4: thirds string running back Patterson look good. Even if you

442
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:09,920
Speaker 4: look at this where it's two evenly matched teams, I

443
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:11,919
Speaker 4: happen to think I have Washington rated a little better

444
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,160
Speaker 4: because of their defense. But even if you say they're

445
00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 4: two evenly matched teams, there's no reason for Washington be

446
00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:20,240
Speaker 4: an underdog at home with the Chargers coming across the

447
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 4: country week one. You know, new coaching staff, you know,

448
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 4: little more continuity in Washington. Even though they got the

449
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 4: new quarterbacks. So love Washington plus one at home against

450
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:33,160
Speaker 4: the Chargers.

451
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, I make them a slight favorite, so I don't

452
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 3: necessarily disagree with you. I think I'm at Washington minus

453
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 3: point three, so I don't disagree with you. I'll share

454
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 3: a few more of my thoughts when we get to

455
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:52,639
Speaker 3: our favorite totals, because this game fits into what I

456
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 3: will be playing from a total perspective. So let me

457
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 3: move on to my second pick and the third overall

458
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 3: pick of these Sunday six pack. I'm going with the

459
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:07,439
Speaker 3: New England Patriots minus two and a half laid minus

460
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:11,399
Speaker 3: one twenty here against the Miami Dolphins.

461
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:12,919
Speaker 1: New England Patriots.

462
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,120
Speaker 3: I think if you listened to any of our preseason

463
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 3: podcast episodes, you know that I'm lower on the Dolphins

464
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:21,439
Speaker 3: than the market, and that's part of this fade here.

465
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 3: I make this line probably higher than everyone to tat

466
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 3: over four. When I look at this game, just like

467
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 3: you know, and by the way, fans are back, we

468
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 3: talk about what we're going to have to talk about

469
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:33,679
Speaker 3: that it's going to help, you know, teams like New

470
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 3: England and teams that have good home field advantages. But

471
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:40,159
Speaker 3: when I look at this game, I think that The

472
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 3: Patriots have a massive advantage on both sides of the

473
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 3: ball in the trenches, and I think that's gonna be

474
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 3: the difference. If you look last year the Dolphins, they

475
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 3: split two regular season meetings. The Dolphins only matters I

476
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 3: think ten total points across the first three quarters of

477
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 3: both games combined. The second game when they beat the Patriots.

478
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 3: I mean, they're Patrick did nothing against them. Tua did

479
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,920
Speaker 3: nothing against them. Throwing, They ran all over New England.

480
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:06,959
Speaker 3: New England's run defense was awful last year, but they

481
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:08,679
Speaker 3: had no one in their front seven. They both they

482
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:12,399
Speaker 3: really upgraded their front seven in the offseason. It's an

483
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:16,640
Speaker 3: area of strength. Now, in my opinion, the Dolphins offensive

484
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 3: line is an area of weakness. It's one of the

485
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 3: weakest offensive lines in the NFL. And they're not going

486
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,400
Speaker 3: to have their starting left tackle who's out for COVID

487
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 3: and it's Bill Belichick going against you know, an inexperienced

488
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,439
Speaker 3: quarterback in his first or second year. He's going to

489
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 3: confuse to a who's not going to have a lot

490
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:35,919
Speaker 3: of time to throw. Will Fuller is also out for

491
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 3: this game. One of the pieces that Miami had to

492
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:41,159
Speaker 3: stretch the field. This is I've said it before. I

493
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,880
Speaker 3: think this is more like year year one for two

494
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,120
Speaker 3: than it is year two. He's coming off an injury

495
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 3: in a COVID year and was rotating with Fitzpatrick. A

496
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:53,160
Speaker 3: lot of the numbers were worrisome. You know, his if

497
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 3: you look at his completion percentage over expectation, if you

498
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 3: look at his depth of target, his indecisiveness now was

499
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 3: offensive line doesn't help in that aspect, and it's not

500
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 3: gonna help here in this matchup. On the other side

501
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:08,159
Speaker 3: of the ball, the Patriots offensive line is one of

502
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 3: the best in the NFL. They MATC Jones can lean

503
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,159
Speaker 3: on that, and they should be able to run on

504
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 3: this Miami run defense, which was not great last year.

505
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 3: You can run on this team. They upgraded their weapons

506
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,359
Speaker 3: on the outside. I don't think mac Jones is gonna

507
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 3: have a bonanza throwing the ball against a good secondary,

508
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,960
Speaker 3: but they should be able to move the chains methodically.

509
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:33,239
Speaker 3: Relying on that offensive line. Jones will have time and

510
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,479
Speaker 3: I think it really what the difference comes down to

511
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 3: in this game is the trenches on both sides. Too

512
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 3: inexperienced Alabama quarterbacks. New England will have now that they've

513
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 3: upgraded their defensive front, they're gonna have a huge advantage

514
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,400
Speaker 3: of the trenches on both sides of the ball. Something

515
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 3: to keep in mind. Miami's defense also has probably a

516
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 3: probably some regression coming. If you look at most stats,

517
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,640
Speaker 3: they were an average defense last year. They just got

518
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 3: forced turnovers and sixteen percent of opponents possessions, which led

519
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 3: the NFL. Maybe some aggression coming that way. Their speial

520
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 3: teams are also excellent, but so are the Patriots, so

521
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 3: you don't have an advantage there. For what it's worth,

522
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:12,440
Speaker 3: Rookie quarterbacks in Week one since twenty ten eleven to

523
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 3: seven and one against the spread, non number one overall picks.

524
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 3: I'm sure Mac Jones is ten and three against the spread.

525
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 3: Quarterbacks making their first career start over the past two

526
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 3: years eighteen and five against the spread. We've seen quarterbacks,

527
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 3: you know, success making their first start, whether it's rookies

528
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 3: in their first start or just first start overall. Bill

529
00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:33,239
Speaker 3: Belchick not the you know. If you look at eddy

530
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 3: of his stats, he's like sixty five percent against the spreading.

531
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 3: He's only ten ten and one against the spread in

532
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 3: season openers, which I wasn't expecting to say. Look, Fellas

533
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:45,640
Speaker 3: I am sick of this. Okay, I can't stand much

534
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:49,119
Speaker 3: more of this. It's a joke. It's a joke. You know,

535
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:50,959
Speaker 3: if you can get by this under a field goal,

536
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:52,679
Speaker 3: if you can't find the under field goal, you know,

537
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 3: if you could find one, twenty five is the max.

538
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 3: But I really think that the trenches is going to

539
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,439
Speaker 3: be the difference here too. Is going to really struggle

540
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 3: against Belichick here, especially with the offensive line situation against

541
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 3: an upgraded New England defensive front. So yeah, let's go

542
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 3: from Let's go from Peyton to Belichick, two of the

543
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,719
Speaker 3: best coaches to back against the spread in the NFL.

544
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 3: So for my second pick, I'm going with New England

545
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:18,640
Speaker 3: at home.

546
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, And I think even more than the coaches, what

547
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 4: I really like about it is you're looking at the

548
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:26,360
Speaker 4: battle in the trenches, because I think that's something that

549
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 4: you know, week in week out, when I'm looking at,

550
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,120
Speaker 4: you know, my numbers versus the market, we're just trying

551
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 4: to find value. That's a lot of times where there's

552
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 4: value to be found when people just aren't properly accounting

553
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 4: for the matchup in the trenches. And with New England,

554
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 4: I think you're gonna have just as good or better blocking,

555
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 4: but you're gonna have a better quarterback. And I can

556
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:51,919
Speaker 4: confidently say that Matt Jones, without having ever thrown a

557
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 4: regular season pass, is a better quarterback than twenty twenty

558
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 4: Cam Newton, who, yeah, ran for a lot of touchdowns,

559
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 4: but throwing the ball it was just impossible for him.

560
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 4: It was eight touchdowns, ten interceptions in fifteen starts. In

561
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 4: the red zone, he couldn't he could bear, he couldn't

562
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 4: get the ball in the end zone. You know, Jacobe

563
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 4: Myers is averaging over five catches a game, couldn't get

564
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,919
Speaker 4: him a touchdown. I mean, it was just an innet

565
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:19,639
Speaker 4: passing attack. And I think Matt Jones, even in his

566
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 4: first start, he'll be a little green. Maybe he turns

567
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:24,359
Speaker 4: it over. You know, Miami was good at first and turnovers.

568
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:26,680
Speaker 4: But it's going to be better than Cam Newton.

569
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, it's a shocking because, Jennally, you can't expect

570
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 3: too much from a rookie. So if you go from

571
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:36,159
Speaker 3: you know, a veteran quarterback to a rookie making his

572
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 3: first start nine times out of ten, you will downgrade

573
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:43,239
Speaker 3: that team, and I will downgrade that team. This is

574
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 3: not one of those cases. Is the one and ten

575
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 3: is the exception of the rule. Both you and I

576
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 3: agree that Cam Newton was washed once it was announced

577
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,239
Speaker 3: that Matt Jones was the starter over Cam Newton. I

578
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,560
Speaker 3: upgraded the Patriots. It's an upgraded quarterback.

579
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 4: There's a couple of guys every year that I feel

580
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 4: like the whole like the actual NFL is late to

581
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 4: the party on their Washington This. Yeah, I like that one.

582
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 4: For my second pick and the fourth overall pick of

583
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 4: the twenty twenty one Week one Sunday six pack, I

584
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 4: am going with the Philadelphia Eagles plus three and a

585
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 4: half minus one twenty against the Atlanta Falcons. I was

586
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:22,239
Speaker 4: still better at three, but I actually got it at

587
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 4: three and a half minus one twenty.

588
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles.

589
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 4: I like Philadelphia outright in this game. I think that

590
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 4: this is a pass up between two mediocre teams that

591
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 4: underperformed last year for various reasons which are in some

592
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 4: cases moved, but in some cases, namely Atlanta's case, I

593
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 4: think still a little more worrisome. So for Philly last year,

594
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 4: a lot of it was on the quarterback, and it's

595
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 4: Carson Wentz and you know he was not playing well.

596
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 4: That kind of derailed the whole team. Injuries also played

597
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 4: a key factor. I mean, his team lost so many

598
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 4: games to injuries, uh, and those two things it was

599
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 4: just really tough to come back from. But you look

600
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 4: at this matchup Philadelphia, healthier, healthy, strong, playing the trenches.

601
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 4: That's what you're gonna get from them. You know, offensive line,

602
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 4: you have Kelsey at center, you have Brooks at uh

603
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 4: and Dwayne Johnson on the right side. It's one of

604
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 4: the best, you know, lineups of three guys, three guys

605
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 4: in the offensive line in the league. So Jordan Mailatta

606
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 4: has been a pleasant surprise winning that left tackle spot.

607
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 4: So whatever's going on with Andre Dillard that you know,

608
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 4: is not going to factor in quite as much. Uh,

609
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 4: But this team is should have an excellent offensive line.

610
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 4: And then on the other side on the defensive line,

611
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 4: you got Fletcher Cox, you got Brandon Graham, you got

612
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 4: Josh Sweat. Those are three of the top linemen in

613
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 4: the league. They can get after it. So right off

614
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 4: the bat, you're talking about a team that has the

615
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 4: edge on both sides of the ball in the trenches.

616
00:30:57,880 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 4: You know, the Falcons have a couple of good linemen,

617
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 4: but their old line overall ranked twenty fourth by Pro

618
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 4: Football Focus entering the season. I do think they have

619
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 4: some holes there. And then you look at Philly, Okay,

620
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 4: what was one of the biggest weaknesses. You know, that

621
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 4: secondary last year just decimated by injuries. They should be

622
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 4: improved at that second corner spot. With Steven Nelson, he

623
00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 4: was top me. He's thirty six out of one hundred

624
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 4: twenty one qualifiers in Pro Football Focuses grades. You still

625
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 4: have Slay not as good as it used to be,

626
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 4: but you know, with a healthy secondary, I think this

627
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 4: is very It's a formidable defense all of a sudden

628
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 4: because you have a front and you have a decent secondary.

629
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 3: Uh.

630
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 4: And then in terms of the matchup with Jalalen Hurts,

631
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 4: a lot of people are worried. You know, fifty two

632
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 4: percent completion rate. Let's not forget Hurt struggled really bad

633
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 4: in that final game of the season against Washington. He

634
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 4: got benched. You know, so everyone's, ah, he's got a

635
00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 4: low completion percentage fifty two percent. But he went seven

636
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 4: to twenty in that game against Washington. But that Washington

637
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,520
Speaker 4: defense is no joke, right, Like that's a that's a

638
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 4: tough defense. So he went seven of twenty for seventy

639
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 4: two yards with a pick. That'll happen against a defense

640
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 4: like Washington. But let's not forget they he beat New

641
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 4: Orleans going seventeen to thirty for one to sixty one

642
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 4: and a touchdown, no picks, then threw for three hundred

643
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 4: and thirty eight yards, three touchdowns, no picks in a

644
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 4: close loss one score loss to Arizona, and then you know,

645
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 4: struggled against Dallas but still threw for three hundred and

646
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 4: forty two yards, a touchdown, two picks. So you know,

647
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 4: parts has a lot of upside as a passer. I

648
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 4: don't think this Falcon defense is and you know it

649
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 4: is fully equipped to handle that, and especially with the

650
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 4: you know, the advantage in the trenches, you know, on

651
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 4: the offensive line. I think Hurts is going to be protected.

652
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 4: But let's not forget what did the Falcons do. They

653
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 4: brought Arthur Smith, and they brought his friend Dean Peas

654
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:52,720
Speaker 4: on defense. Peez, and you've pointed this out, Stuck. He

655
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 4: does tends to raise the level of the defense compared

656
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 4: to what it was before he got there, but he

657
00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 4: also likes to blitz. Jalen Hurts was a top five

658
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 4: quarterback against the Blitz in terms of yards per attempt

659
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 4: last year eight point eight yards per attempt according to

660
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 4: Pro Football Focus against the Blitz of passer rating of

661
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 4: one hundred and four. So even though hurts, there's some

662
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:18,440
Speaker 4: question marks about him as a passer. He was blitzed

663
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 4: on almost half of the draft. He just blitzed a lot,

664
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 4: you know. Teams came at him and he made him

665
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 4: pay four touchdowns one pick. So there's not a clear

666
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 4: path to me for in Atlanta victory. And that's why

667
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 4: I love Philly plus three and a half. I bet

668
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 4: him a three as well. Because Arthur Blank, the owner

669
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 4: of the Falcons, he wants them to be more run heavy.

670
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 4: That's why it took Arthur Smith, who of course is

671
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 4: famous for running the ball with the Italians. Of course

672
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 4: he had Dereck Henry. Now they have Mike Davis career

673
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 4: three point seven yard per carry average. Different different kind

674
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 4: of guy. This backup running back here is Cordaro Patterson.

675
00:33:56,520 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 4: So I don't see a clear path to victory for Atlanta.

676
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 4: Philly's gonna get pressure. They were number two in pressure

677
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 4: rate last year even with the injuries, and Matt Ryan

678
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:09,840
Speaker 4: was just nineteenth and passer rating under pressure, and that

679
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 4: was still with half, you know, half the season with Julio.

680
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 4: So I see a lot lower of a floor for

681
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:19,759
Speaker 4: Atlanta in this game where I also and I don't

682
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:23,319
Speaker 4: see a clear path to victory for Atlanta, But I

683
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 4: love it getting a hook at three and a half.

684
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 4: I love getting to three. I don't I don't see

685
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:30,880
Speaker 4: Philly getting run out of the building here. Uh So

686
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 4: Philadelphia plus three and a half at Atlanta for pick

687
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 4: number two of the six pack.

688
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 3: I think that that's the right side here, and I

689
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:39,600
Speaker 3: would I would have taken them with my third pick

690
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:43,720
Speaker 3: if you had him. Then you didn't even mentioned Milt Williams.

691
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:45,360
Speaker 3: I think it's one of the most interesting pieces on

692
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 3: the defensive line. Young kid at a lot tech. I

693
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 3: think if they he has a lot of promise. But

694
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 3: I think that this Eagles defense is one of it's

695
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:56,359
Speaker 3: gonna make the biggest leap from last year than any

696
00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 3: other team in the NFL. I'm a Jonathan Gadden truther.

697
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 3: I think that he's going to come in similar to

698
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 3: what Staley did, and a lot of what Staley did

699
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 3: he learned from Gann and a lot of his principles.

700
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 3: They were childhood friends. But I love Gannon. I think

701
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:15,480
Speaker 3: that they're deep. This Eagles defense is going to be

702
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:17,800
Speaker 3: very you know, everyone always says it's going to be

703
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 3: very multiple, but I mean very multiple. And they're going

704
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:22,840
Speaker 3: to have guys all over the place moving chess pieces.

705
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:25,319
Speaker 3: It's going to be a very tough defense to prepare for.

706
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,880
Speaker 3: And and by the way, this is an interesting matchup

707
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:32,440
Speaker 3: in that you have it's kind of like Colts versus Titans,

708
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 3: like you had. You have Nick Sirianni was from the

709
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 3: Colts and Gannon and then you have Arthur Smith coming

710
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:40,600
Speaker 3: from the Titans, so there are there is some film

711
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 3: familiarity there. But yeah, I think that Eagles are gonna

712
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:45,920
Speaker 3: be able to generate pressure with confusion and especially up

713
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 3: the middle against the Falcons offensive line, and really caused

714
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:51,319
Speaker 3: a lot of havoc in the backfield, which I think

715
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 3: could ultimately be the difference. Wouldn't shock me to see

716
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 3: either either team win this by a field goal?

717
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 2: All right.

718
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 3: For my third pick and the fifth overall in the

719
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 3: Sunday six pack, we went from Sean Payton to Bill

720
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 3: Belichick to Cliff Kingsbury Orange.

721
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 2: Have you heard about the Lords and Loser he's a loser,

722
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:49,280
Speaker 2: but he still keeps on trying.

723
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:52,280
Speaker 3: This. I know it's it's insane. I'm taking Arizona plus

724
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 3: three at Tennessee. Let me clarify, I'm not taking Arizona

725
00:36:56,640 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 3: plus three. I'm fading Tennessee mine. So let me make

726
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,640
Speaker 3: that clear. I'm not betting on Cliff Kingsberry. I'm fading

727
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 3: Mike rab After making some adjustments that I'll talk about,

728
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 3: I think this line should be, you know, closer to one.

729
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:11,920
Speaker 3: There's a lot of questions on both defenses. Right we

730
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:15,760
Speaker 3: know that the Titans defenses is miserable. They can't generate pressure.

731
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 3: There's major questions in the secondary, specifically at corner, and

732
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:22,840
Speaker 3: they're gonna get spread out by this this Cardinals offense,

733
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,000
Speaker 3: and I think they're gonna have a lot of trouble

734
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:27,720
Speaker 3: stopped at Kyler Murray and company. On the other side,

735
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:30,879
Speaker 3: the Cardinals defense isn't great, but they added some reinforcements

736
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:33,759
Speaker 3: in the front seven that I think will help them

737
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 3: get better against the run, and that was a major

738
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 3: area of weakness last year at times, and they're gonna

739
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:41,320
Speaker 3: need to be better against the run against Derrick Henry

740
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:44,520
Speaker 3: on the outside, there's questions. The Cardinals have questions that

741
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 3: corner as well, and they're going up against you know,

742
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,359
Speaker 3: a J. Brown and Julio Jones not great. Well, here's

743
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:52,880
Speaker 3: the thing I'm just, I mean, first coming into the season,

744
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:55,880
Speaker 3: I'm lower. I'm fairly low in the Titans compared to

745
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 3: the market. I mean, last year they went seven to

746
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 3: two in one possession games. If you throw out that

747
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:02,399
Speaker 3: Browns game, whether they're dow by fifty and came back

748
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 3: to make it a one possession game. You know, they

749
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:06,400
Speaker 3: were plus eleven in Turn of our March and they

750
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:09,759
Speaker 3: were real, they were healthy all year. Just everything really

751
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:13,120
Speaker 3: went their way. So this year there's a lot of

752
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 3: negative aggression coming for them, and I think that they

753
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:19,560
Speaker 3: might start really slow for a couple of reasons. Who

754
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 3: do we just talk about Arthur Smith, huge fanf He's gone, right,

755
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 3: So he's gone from the offense. Yes, they added Julio,

756
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:26,759
Speaker 3: but he lose johnas Smith. You lose Corey Davis. So

757
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 3: it's not like you just added Julio to this offense.

758
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:31,959
Speaker 3: You lost a lot, including your play caller. On top

759
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:35,480
Speaker 3: of that, there's no continuity with this offense because of COVID.

760
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:37,360
Speaker 3: I mean, this team got crushed by COVID in the

761
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 3: last three weeks. They still have two starting offensive linemen

762
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:42,839
Speaker 3: on the COVID list. Ryan Tannell just came off the

763
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:43,439
Speaker 3: COVID list.

764
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:45,800
Speaker 1: Ryan Tanner Thrill.

765
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:48,839
Speaker 3: He went on the COVID list today. Julio Jones got

766
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 3: back from injury in camp. I mean, they have they

767
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:53,319
Speaker 3: have zero continuity working they've worked together at all. This

768
00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:56,240
Speaker 3: week will be the first time essentially for in a month.

769
00:38:56,560 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 3: So you know, the offensive line is they're probably all

770
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 3: to be back by but they haven't been practicing together.

771
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:05,120
Speaker 3: So there's a lot of questions with COVID and how

772
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 3: it impacted the continuity and the preparation for this team,

773
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 3: which I think is important. So I think they're this offense,

774
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 3: but look, when this offense is at full strength of

775
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:16,239
Speaker 3: firing at all cylinders, it's one of the best in

776
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 3: the NFL. But I think that there's going to be

777
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 3: some growing pains because of the you know, the COVID impact,

778
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:26,880
Speaker 3: the transition away from Arthur Smith, you know, assimilating Polio

779
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 3: into the offense. You know, you lose John's so there's

780
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 3: a lot of moving pieces and parts. So, you know,

781
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:34,879
Speaker 3: I think that this is basically a coin flip game

782
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 3: between two offenses that should have plenty of success. I

783
00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 3: think that lack of continuity might just interrupt a few

784
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:48,200
Speaker 3: too many Titans drives and that could be the difference.

785
00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 3: So I wouldn't take plus to and a half, but

786
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:55,920
Speaker 3: give me the three. I'm taking it. I'm siding with Cliff.

787
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:59,279
Speaker 3: I can't believe it in week one, but if he

788
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:02,440
Speaker 3: lets me down, at least it's only one point and

789
00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:04,240
Speaker 3: I'll have something that ran about next week.

790
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 4: Cliff Kingsbury, I can't believe you haven't mentioned the Titans

791
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 4: field goal kicking, because, like you know, they like what

792
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:16,839
Speaker 4: you're not gonna lose by a field though, Like it's

793
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 4: not it's you're either gonna lose the bet by like

794
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:20,480
Speaker 4: a touchdown or more, or you just win it out,

795
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 4: like you know what I mean, Like the Titans field

796
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:25,160
Speaker 4: goal kicking. Now they have what Sam Thicken, I don't know.

797
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 4: I mean, it scares me a little, just because I

798
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:31,080
Speaker 4: really don't know what's going on Arizona's corners, like Malcolm

799
00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:34,319
Speaker 4: Butler retired. You know, yes they will Peterson, but they

800
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:36,040
Speaker 4: there's a lot of question marks there to be going

801
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 4: up against Julio AJ that maybe enough for Tennessee. I

802
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 4: do you kind of alluded to the there should be

803
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:45,400
Speaker 4: points this. I almost went with this the over for

804
00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:47,800
Speaker 4: my favorite total, but I can't be on I can't

805
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 4: go over in the first in week one, so you know,

806
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:53,839
Speaker 4: I gotta stay on brand. But yeah, that's the only

807
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 4: thing that scares me. I think Tennessee they're not as

808
00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:57,960
Speaker 4: good as their record I think has been over the

809
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:00,759
Speaker 4: past couple of years. Like that that game against Cincinnati

810
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 4: where they lost like thirty one to twenty last year

811
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 4: comes to mind, Like they can lose to anybody because

812
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 4: their defense on any given we can just shit the

813
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 4: bet and against a healthy Kiro because Kyra wasn't healthy

814
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 4: for half the year last year. I could see that happening.

815
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 4: But I'm still just not I have it right around three.

816
00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 4: I'm just not there with this Arizona, like that Arizona

817
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:20,719
Speaker 4: Corner situation and the fact that whoever they are going

818
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 4: to start like they it's not if they really had

819
00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 4: a lot of practice together either, you know, So that

820
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:29,839
Speaker 4: just worries me a little bit with them.

821
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:33,640
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Speaker 5: Thanks so much for listening. Let's get back to the show.

852
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 4: For my third pick and the sixth overall pick of

853
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:15,839
Speaker 4: the week, one twenty twenty one Sunday six pack, I'm

854
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 4: going with the Seattle Seahawks minus two and a half

855
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 4: at Indianapolis.

856
00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks stuck.

857
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:26,279
Speaker 4: I know you're gonna hate this one because I don't

858
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 4: think many people would agree with it just based on

859
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:31,400
Speaker 4: the straight up projections. I actually got Seattle earlier in

860
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 4: the off season at plus three before all this madness

861
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:36,880
Speaker 4: happened with Wentz and COVID and whatnot. But I still

862
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:39,399
Speaker 4: like Seattle up to a field goal because I think

863
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 4: they win this game. And you know, maybe that's a

864
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:45,320
Speaker 4: hot take, but I look back, first of all, every

865
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:49,360
Speaker 4: indication just throwing numbers, throwing everything out the window. Every

866
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 4: indication we have about this coach speak is that they'll

867
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:54,640
Speaker 4: they'll probably start slow. We have a new quarterback coming

868
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:57,800
Speaker 4: over that missed a lot of time due to injury,

869
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:02,760
Speaker 4: went on, the COVID list, receiver out t Y Hilton,

870
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:06,959
Speaker 4: you you know, offensive lineman getting hurt left and right.

871
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 4: You know, those guys haven't had a lot of time

872
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:12,080
Speaker 4: to practice together, especially with Wentz. So Wentz is really

873
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:14,560
Speaker 4: you know, his time has been limited with pretty much

874
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:18,319
Speaker 4: every key member of the offense just because of what's

875
00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:22,320
Speaker 4: gone on this this offseason. And let's not forget Carson

876
00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:25,920
Speaker 4: Wentz's just not very good lately. Now. He started his

877
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:28,640
Speaker 4: career well, obviously he had that you know, near MVP

878
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 4: season in year two. He was eighteen and eleven in

879
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:35,839
Speaker 4: his two seasons with Frank Wright. Okay, then right goes

880
00:44:35,840 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 4: to coach the coach Carson Wentz since then, fourteen and

881
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:42,319
Speaker 4: twenty six against the spread, thirty six percent cover rate

882
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:45,799
Speaker 4: over the last three seasons. He hasn't been good even

883
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:49,520
Speaker 4: before last year, does he get Does Reich just turn

884
00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:52,360
Speaker 4: around everything? Maybe isn't gonna happen a year one with

885
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:55,600
Speaker 4: limited in week one, with limited practice time with the

886
00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 4: old line and the receivers and not a great receiving

887
00:44:58,120 --> 00:45:00,840
Speaker 4: corps by the way, especially with t y out. I

888
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:05,279
Speaker 4: don't think so. But on top of that, Frank Reich

889
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:09,360
Speaker 4: in general, his team's for some reason shit the bed

890
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 4: in Week one. He's been coaching the Coast for three years.

891
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 4: Last year they lost to one in fifteen Jacksonville, who

892
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:20,160
Speaker 4: went on to lose fifteen straight games after beating the

893
00:45:20,160 --> 00:45:24,520
Speaker 4: Coats in Week one. Twenty nineteen, he lost to the Chargers,

894
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 4: who didn't go four to eleven the rest of the year.

895
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 4: In twenty eighteen lost to the Bengals, who went five

896
00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:38,160
Speaker 4: and ten the rest of the year. So Frank Reich

897
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:40,279
Speaker 4: is zero and three straight up against three teams that

898
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:44,440
Speaker 4: went a combined nine and thirty six from then on

899
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:48,440
Speaker 4: twenty percent of their games. There is nothing like I

900
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:51,200
Speaker 4: get to. You know, Coats are at home. Seahawks one

901
00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 4: score luck. Seahawks play a lot of close games. The

902
00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:56,239
Speaker 4: projection for a lot of people is probably lower, maybe

903
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 4: even have the Coats favored. I just don't see how

904
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 4: the coach come out of the gate hot in this

905
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:06,279
Speaker 4: game against the Seahawk team who not only has decent continuity.

906
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:07,920
Speaker 4: I mean, I know they got the new offensive coordinator,

907
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 4: but it will probably be better best one they've had yet.

908
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:13,919
Speaker 4: In Shane Waldron, you're gonna have maybe the best number

909
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 4: three receiver and d s Gridge of the rookie, maybe

910
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:19,400
Speaker 4: the best tight end you've had in a few years.

911
00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:22,400
Speaker 4: In Gerald Everett. Your offensive line four out of the

912
00:46:22,400 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 4: five guys were in you know, above average ranked by PFF.

913
00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 4: So the offensive line is coming together. The defensive owed

914
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 4: fifteen points per game over the last half of the

915
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:35,400
Speaker 4: season last year. I know they faced a couple easy matches,

916
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:40,480
Speaker 4: but the defense definitely improved the Seattle team. You know, Adams,

917
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:42,719
Speaker 4: you have you have done lap there. I think the

918
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:45,600
Speaker 4: cornerbacks will be better than last year. Still a question mark,

919
00:46:45,640 --> 00:46:47,239
Speaker 4: but I still think they'll be better than last year.

920
00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:50,560
Speaker 4: I just don't see how Indianapolis starts hot. Seattle will

921
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:52,640
Speaker 4: win this game, and so getting them under a field goal,

922
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:53,160
Speaker 4: I'm taking it.

923
00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:55,920
Speaker 3: I don't hate it. At minus two and a half,

924
00:46:55,920 --> 00:46:57,960
Speaker 3: the Sales will probably win by a field goal. Yeah,

925
00:46:57,960 --> 00:46:59,759
Speaker 3: as long as you're getting under a field goal. I mean,

926
00:46:59,800 --> 00:47:03,640
Speaker 3: we talked about middle of the field, closed defenses, right

927
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:05,880
Speaker 3: and under the Pete Carroll tree, that's what he runs.

928
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:08,759
Speaker 3: He runs his cover three or cover one man. That's

929
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:12,840
Speaker 3: what Pete Carroll does. Wentz last year the worst quarterback

930
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:17,400
Speaker 3: in the league by far against middle Yes, he was

931
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:19,640
Speaker 3: the worst quarterback by far overall, but against two high

932
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:22,800
Speaker 3: safety looks, he actually was just like just below average

933
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 3: against single I Saidels, I mean, you have to make

934
00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:29,520
Speaker 3: confident throws to the outside. It's basically what this defense

935
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:31,759
Speaker 3: tries to do is take away the easy throws. You know,

936
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:33,800
Speaker 3: the Cults are gonna run a lot of zone. Wilson

937
00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:37,319
Speaker 3: has historically been very good against zone, although I'm sure

938
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:40,280
Speaker 3: that what the cults are gonna do. You know, Everpholis

939
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:43,920
Speaker 3: his philosophy is stop the run, eliminated big plays. So

940
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 3: the zone is gonna really take away, you know, the

941
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:49,640
Speaker 3: big play, or at least try to the big play

942
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:53,160
Speaker 3: down the field to Metcalf and try and just make

943
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:55,640
Speaker 3: the Seahawks drive down the field. I'm curious to see

944
00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:58,320
Speaker 3: what their offense looks like with the new offensive coordinator

945
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 3: and see how the play calling changes. The defense does

946
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:05,440
Speaker 3: worry me. I mean, it's DJ Reid and Trey Flowers

947
00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:09,120
Speaker 3: starting at corner. Doesn't inspire much confidence in me with

948
00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:12,600
Speaker 3: what Carol wants to do. Al Woods is starting your

949
00:48:12,640 --> 00:48:15,359
Speaker 3: starting defensive tackle. When's the last time he played a

950
00:48:15,400 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 3: football game? So there's a lot of holes on this defense.

951
00:48:18,480 --> 00:48:20,759
Speaker 3: But on the other side, I mean, how healthy is

952
00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:24,279
Speaker 3: Quinton Nelson. Fisher's out at left tackle, Davenport's gonna start,

953
00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:26,759
Speaker 3: and Wentz is just a major question mark. So I

954
00:48:26,840 --> 00:48:28,880
Speaker 3: can't hate your reasoning.

955
00:48:29,280 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 4: Like when the spread is like this, I'm taking him.

956
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:34,239
Speaker 4: But I know better now, especially after you don't talking

957
00:48:34,239 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 4: to you these last couple of years about you know,

958
00:48:36,840 --> 00:48:38,640
Speaker 4: if Seattle starts hot and then all of a sudden

959
00:48:38,680 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 4: they're like six and a half or five and a

960
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:43,320
Speaker 4: half against like a kind of shitty team, that's I

961
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:44,600
Speaker 4: know to stay away.

962
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:46,759
Speaker 3: So all right, So.

963
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:50,040
Speaker 4: That was our first Sunday six pack of the year.

964
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:55,160
Speaker 4: To recap Stucky taking the New England Patriots minus two

965
00:48:55,200 --> 00:48:57,920
Speaker 4: and a half, the New Orleans Saints plus four and

966
00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:04,239
Speaker 4: a half, and the Arizona Cardinals plus three. Cliff Kingsbury,

967
00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:08,799
Speaker 4: I'm going with the Washington football team plus one at

968
00:49:08,840 --> 00:49:11,399
Speaker 4: home Philly plus three and a half on the road,

969
00:49:11,480 --> 00:49:14,759
Speaker 4: like that to three, uh and Seattle minus two and

970
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:17,000
Speaker 4: a half on the road against an indie team who

971
00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:19,960
Speaker 4: I expect to start slow, and so like that to three.

972
00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:25,160
Speaker 4: Now it's time for our coaches pep Talk, and today's

973
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:29,320
Speaker 4: coaches Pep Talk comes to us from Minnesota Golden Gophers

974
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:33,920
Speaker 4: coach PJ. Fleck, and we're dedicating it to Urban Meyer.

975
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:36,040
Speaker 3: You don't have. They haven't met about you.

976
00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:38,880
Speaker 5: They haven't met your heart, they haven't met your spirit,

977
00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 5: they haven't met your soul.

978
00:49:41,239 --> 00:49:43,239
Speaker 3: If they gave me one word to describe you right now,

979
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:46,319
Speaker 3: never would be a trailblazer. You know what trailblazers do.

980
00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:49,040
Speaker 3: They blaze trails for other.

981
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:53,280
Speaker 6: People to Becomingly you have blazed trails for others.

982
00:49:52,920 --> 00:49:54,520
Speaker 3: Who thought this was never possible.

983
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:57,279
Speaker 4: I haven't had Urban Meyer talk yet in the pot.

984
00:49:57,320 --> 00:50:00,279
Speaker 4: I'm sure we'll get to it a little later. But

985
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:05,160
Speaker 4: let's go right into our favorite total segment of the week.

986
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:08,399
Speaker 4: And since you got the first pick in our six pack,

987
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:12,920
Speaker 4: I'll go first here with the total and I am

988
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 4: going and there is this is actually a tougher call

989
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:17,480
Speaker 4: than I thought. There are There are a few totals

990
00:50:17,480 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 4: that I like this week, so be sure to check

991
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:22,880
Speaker 4: out Action network dot com. I'll have something up on

992
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:28,160
Speaker 4: each game, But I'm going Denver at New York under

993
00:50:28,200 --> 00:50:30,600
Speaker 4: forty two is the line at bet MGM, the official

994
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:33,919
Speaker 4: odds provider of the Action Network podcast, and I love

995
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:37,239
Speaker 4: this line for a number of reasons. Number One, the

996
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:40,480
Speaker 4: New York Giants the worst offensive line in the league.

997
00:50:41,120 --> 00:50:43,640
Speaker 4: Number thirty two according to PFF. But you could just

998
00:50:44,000 --> 00:50:46,560
Speaker 4: look at the line from left to right, and no

999
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:49,960
Speaker 4: one really inspires confidence. I mean, you know, they're talking

1000
00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:52,719
Speaker 4: of Nate Solder, who is horrible the last time we

1001
00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:54,560
Speaker 4: saw him and then sat a year out, and they're

1002
00:50:54,560 --> 00:50:56,319
Speaker 4: like talking him up as if he's going to be

1003
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:58,880
Speaker 4: an improvement. So I'm just not buying it with his

1004
00:50:58,960 --> 00:51:05,040
Speaker 4: Giants line, especially not going against Radley Chubb von Miller,

1005
00:51:05,600 --> 00:51:09,279
Speaker 4: a Denver defense that's not only coordinated by you know,

1006
00:51:09,400 --> 00:51:13,799
Speaker 4: defensive genius Vic Fangio, but that actually has cornerbacks. Now,

1007
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:16,360
Speaker 4: like it's not just that Denver is gonna rush the

1008
00:51:16,440 --> 00:51:19,880
Speaker 4: passer and and and you know, getting Jones faces that

1009
00:51:20,280 --> 00:51:24,400
Speaker 4: they have cornerbacks. The Giants. Everyone's banged up. Evan Ingram

1010
00:51:24,440 --> 00:51:29,239
Speaker 4: Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladey, Cayden Smith, the third string tight end.

1011
00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:32,359
Speaker 4: Uh Kyle Rudolph Baarley practiced, he might have to play

1012
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:35,080
Speaker 4: all the snaps at tight end. He's barely practice all summer.

1013
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:37,480
Speaker 4: Kadarius Tony might have to have a roll after he

1014
00:51:37,560 --> 00:51:40,480
Speaker 4: Barry practiced all. I mean, there's a lot not to

1015
00:51:40,600 --> 00:51:42,879
Speaker 4: like about the Giants offense. And then on the other

1016
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:45,480
Speaker 4: side of what we've talked about this Giants, you can

1017
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:48,440
Speaker 4: count them to be well schemed on defense. Patrick Graham

1018
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:51,319
Speaker 4: one of the better defensive coordinators in the league. A

1019
00:51:51,320 --> 00:51:53,600
Speaker 4: lot of people will remember him shutting down Seattle and

1020
00:51:53,680 --> 00:51:55,880
Speaker 4: Russell Wilson in that game that they won with Colt McCoy.

1021
00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:59,279
Speaker 4: But uh yeah, you're going against Teddy Bridgewater. It's just

1022
00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:01,480
Speaker 4: not the This is not a juggernaut. I know they

1023
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:04,080
Speaker 4: have some good skill players and you know, some decent

1024
00:52:04,120 --> 00:52:06,480
Speaker 4: off wineman. I think Bridgewater will fare better here than

1025
00:52:06,520 --> 00:52:10,319
Speaker 4: he did in Carolina, better situation, but he's twenty eight

1026
00:52:10,360 --> 00:52:12,720
Speaker 4: and twenty in his career, toward the under fifty eight percent.

1027
00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:15,440
Speaker 4: And by the way, the Giants with their scheming with

1028
00:52:15,520 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 4: the pace of play thirteen and three most profitable team

1029
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:22,800
Speaker 4: toward the under last season. I think this numbers is

1030
00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:24,239
Speaker 4: a point too high. I think it should be around

1031
00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:26,960
Speaker 4: forty one. I would take it. Really don't expect points

1032
00:52:27,160 --> 00:52:30,200
Speaker 4: on the Giant side in this one, and their defense

1033
00:52:30,280 --> 00:52:32,400
Speaker 4: is too well scheme not to like this under at

1034
00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:32,919
Speaker 4: forty two.

1035
00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:35,840
Speaker 3: They kind of the theme of the podcast of defensive schemes.

1036
00:52:35,880 --> 00:52:38,000
Speaker 3: Hopefully some I mean some people might know that, some

1037
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:40,600
Speaker 3: people are learning something. But like the Carrol's the middle

1038
00:52:40,640 --> 00:52:43,120
Speaker 3: of the field closed, like Fangio's middle of the field open,

1039
00:52:43,200 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 3: two high safeties, same with Brandon Staley. Like last year

1040
00:52:47,600 --> 00:52:52,919
Speaker 3: pre snap seventy five percent too high safety Denver and

1041
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:56,360
Speaker 3: the Rams. The next highest was fifty percent. League average

1042
00:52:56,400 --> 00:52:59,040
Speaker 3: is like thirty five percent. So and that's I think

1043
00:52:59,080 --> 00:53:02,320
Speaker 3: the defense of the future. But we'll see. But against

1044
00:53:02,560 --> 00:53:06,200
Speaker 3: two high safeties, middle of the field open, worst quarterback

1045
00:53:06,200 --> 00:53:09,160
Speaker 3: in the NFL, Daniel Jones last year by far epa

1046
00:53:09,239 --> 00:53:11,920
Speaker 3: per play, it's gonna be very difficult for the giantsmith Ball,

1047
00:53:11,920 --> 00:53:13,920
Speaker 3: I mean, god, I came on basically was like, dude,

1048
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:15,080
Speaker 3: we're gonna start slow.

1049
00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:18,560
Speaker 4: That's not the worst thing is this is puffy season, right,

1050
00:53:18,640 --> 00:53:22,640
Speaker 4: This is ninety eight probably ninety nine percent of articles

1051
00:53:22,719 --> 00:53:25,600
Speaker 4: of quote you hear before one game has been played

1052
00:53:25,600 --> 00:53:29,120
Speaker 4: in a season unwarranted positivity in most cases, when a

1053
00:53:29,200 --> 00:53:31,200
Speaker 4: guy says something negative like that, like how worries some

1054
00:53:31,360 --> 00:53:31,839
Speaker 4: is that? Man?

1055
00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:35,320
Speaker 3: Yeah? All right? For my favorite total of the week,

1056
00:53:35,400 --> 00:53:38,080
Speaker 3: I'm going sort of off brand for the podcast, but

1057
00:53:38,120 --> 00:53:41,279
Speaker 3: I'm going with an over. I'm going with the Chargers

1058
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:45,399
Speaker 3: Washington football team over forty four and a half. Now,

1059
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:50,719
Speaker 3: this will undoubtedly, now I'm gonna end up lying, but

1060
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:53,479
Speaker 3: this will undoubtedly be the only total that I'll bet

1061
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:55,520
Speaker 3: this week. And I'll tell you why. There's a lot

1062
00:53:55,520 --> 00:53:58,719
Speaker 3: of uncertainty around totals from after what we saw last year.

1063
00:53:59,000 --> 00:54:01,920
Speaker 3: Scoring was up on must a field goal over the

1064
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 3: previous high year. We talked about this a lot last year.

1065
00:54:05,640 --> 00:54:08,120
Speaker 3: One of the reasons which is will be persistent and

1066
00:54:08,200 --> 00:54:11,680
Speaker 3: could even become more of a factor, is teams are

1067
00:54:11,719 --> 00:54:14,720
Speaker 3: more aggressive on fourth downs. Right, so instead of punting

1068
00:54:14,760 --> 00:54:17,640
Speaker 3: it or kicking a field, you're seeing more aggressive offenses,

1069
00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:21,160
Speaker 3: more plus ev decisions on fourth downs that lead to

1070
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:27,000
Speaker 3: more points. We also saw no crowds that appeared to

1071
00:54:27,040 --> 00:54:30,080
Speaker 3: have a positive impact for offenses, but we have crowds

1072
00:54:30,080 --> 00:54:33,759
Speaker 3: now on third downs, dealing with noise. You know, it's

1073
00:54:33,800 --> 00:54:36,400
Speaker 3: only one season of data, but now we're going to

1074
00:54:36,440 --> 00:54:40,360
Speaker 3: have crowds, and we saw an added emphasis so not

1075
00:54:40,640 --> 00:54:43,400
Speaker 3: calling holding calls. Holding calls were way down. It's like,

1076
00:54:43,480 --> 00:54:45,920
Speaker 3: let you know, it's the NFL. What's NFL wanted to do.

1077
00:54:46,400 --> 00:54:49,040
Speaker 3: Let's get points right. So you saw holding calls go

1078
00:54:49,200 --> 00:54:53,399
Speaker 3: way down, obviously help offenses. So the crowd impact. Still

1079
00:54:53,480 --> 00:54:55,960
Speaker 3: trying to figure that out. You can, it's it's not

1080
00:54:56,040 --> 00:54:59,080
Speaker 3: an easy thing to distill. I do think teams will

1081
00:54:59,080 --> 00:55:01,600
Speaker 3: still be aggressive. I'm not sure what the NFL is

1082
00:55:01,600 --> 00:55:04,000
Speaker 3: gonna do about holding calls in or any other emphasis

1083
00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:06,239
Speaker 3: that they have right. Who knows what they could come

1084
00:55:06,280 --> 00:55:09,440
Speaker 3: out and say, we need to lock down on illegal

1085
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:12,280
Speaker 3: contact more. I can't wait to lose a bet on taunting.

1086
00:55:12,480 --> 00:55:15,879
Speaker 3: They want an emphasis on taunting this year, so it's

1087
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:17,200
Speaker 3: something that I want to get other so I want

1088
00:55:17,239 --> 00:55:20,400
Speaker 3: to be very conservative and hesitant on totals early in

1089
00:55:20,400 --> 00:55:22,400
Speaker 3: the year. But I did like this one for a

1090
00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:25,920
Speaker 3: couple of reasons. It's under forty five, which is fairly

1091
00:55:25,960 --> 00:55:29,360
Speaker 3: low in the NFL, and I like, look, the Washington

1092
00:55:29,400 --> 00:55:33,080
Speaker 3: offense added some nice pieces. I like the offensive line,

1093
00:55:33,160 --> 00:55:36,640
Speaker 3: especially with the reports with Cosmi at right tackle the rookie.

1094
00:55:36,840 --> 00:55:38,840
Speaker 3: I love the interior offensive line. Now they have a

1095
00:55:38,880 --> 00:55:41,480
Speaker 3: lot of weapons, and Fitzpatricks is an upgrade of quarterback,

1096
00:55:42,600 --> 00:55:45,759
Speaker 3: and Fitzpatrick's wild. I mean, he's gonna attack downfield, He's

1097
00:55:45,760 --> 00:55:48,520
Speaker 3: gonna throw picks. You might have a pick six in there,

1098
00:55:49,600 --> 00:55:54,640
Speaker 3: high variance quarterback. But I like this offense to actually

1099
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:59,160
Speaker 3: do some things against a Chargers defensive you already mentioned

1100
00:55:59,200 --> 00:56:01,400
Speaker 3: earlier in the episod lost a lot of key pieces,

1101
00:56:01,840 --> 00:56:06,520
Speaker 3: and you know, now they bring in Brandon Staley, who,

1102
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:08,799
Speaker 3: by the way, it's not Anthony Lynn, so they're not

1103
00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:11,239
Speaker 3: the Chargers won't mess up scoring opportunities at the end

1104
00:56:11,239 --> 00:56:13,960
Speaker 3: of the half and in the game, which helped the

1105
00:56:14,040 --> 00:56:21,080
Speaker 3: over But his defensive scheme is the complete opposite of

1106
00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:23,000
Speaker 3: what the Charger's doing. I mean, I can't think of

1107
00:56:23,000 --> 00:56:25,719
Speaker 3: a polar opposite scheme, and I don't necessarily think the

1108
00:56:25,800 --> 00:56:29,279
Speaker 3: roster fits. Maybe he'll kind of fit the roster to him,

1109
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:32,920
Speaker 3: but it's a it's a completely different change, and they

1110
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:34,480
Speaker 3: lost a lot of key players. I don't think this

1111
00:56:34,560 --> 00:56:38,120
Speaker 3: defense is as as elite as people think, just because

1112
00:56:38,520 --> 00:56:43,399
Speaker 3: you know, Derwin James is coming back and we don't Yeah,

1113
00:56:43,400 --> 00:56:46,080
Speaker 3: we don't know he Look, he hasn't played in a decade.

1114
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:50,239
Speaker 3: He's uh Dori Jackson. He's in the all figment of

1115
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:54,920
Speaker 3: our imagination to yeh as camb So, I don't think

1116
00:56:54,920 --> 00:56:57,440
Speaker 3: that the charge I think the Chargers defense as holes.

1117
00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:00,680
Speaker 3: Big Washington's offense gonna have some success. On the other side,

1118
00:57:00,800 --> 00:57:05,120
Speaker 3: this Chargers offense, they upgraded their offensive line, which is huge.

1119
00:57:05,160 --> 00:57:08,360
Speaker 3: You need some semblance of an offensive line to go

1120
00:57:08,440 --> 00:57:12,840
Speaker 3: against this Washington defensive line. I mean last year Washington

1121
00:57:13,480 --> 00:57:16,640
Speaker 3: had seven wins and they won their sad NFCS. They

1122
00:57:16,680 --> 00:57:21,040
Speaker 3: beat Andy Dalton twice, Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts, Ben Roethlisberger,

1123
00:57:21,120 --> 00:57:23,680
Speaker 3: Nick Mullins, and Ryan Finley. They only beat four teams

1124
00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:27,320
Speaker 3: last year. They swept the Eagles and the Cowboys. Those

1125
00:57:27,480 --> 00:57:29,880
Speaker 3: quarterbacks were bad last year and played for some of

1126
00:57:29,920 --> 00:57:33,280
Speaker 3: the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Just decimated by injuries.

1127
00:57:33,320 --> 00:57:35,640
Speaker 3: Obviously the Cowboys and Eagles, now that's a strike, but

1128
00:57:35,680 --> 00:57:38,000
Speaker 3: they were decimated by injuries last year. If you take

1129
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:40,480
Speaker 3: those seven games I just mentioned against those bad quarterbacks

1130
00:57:40,520 --> 00:57:43,400
Speaker 3: and bad offensive lines, and let's throw off the Giants

1131
00:57:43,440 --> 00:57:46,320
Speaker 3: either the Giants swept Washington last year. The Giants had

1132
00:57:46,360 --> 00:57:48,040
Speaker 3: one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. If

1133
00:57:48,040 --> 00:57:51,680
Speaker 3: you throw those the Giants the other seven games that

1134
00:57:51,800 --> 00:57:54,240
Speaker 3: Washington played last year, they allowed an average of twenty

1135
00:57:54,320 --> 00:57:56,000
Speaker 3: nine and a half points per game. I think the

1136
00:57:56,080 --> 00:57:59,040
Speaker 3: Washington offense is being disrespected in the market, and the

1137
00:57:59,120 --> 00:58:01,920
Speaker 3: Charters offense is disrespected against Washington. I think I can

1138
00:58:01,960 --> 00:58:04,680
Speaker 3: get this under forty five. I like the over, but

1139
00:58:04,840 --> 00:58:07,280
Speaker 3: don't go crazy. And who knows where Fitzpatrick's gonna throw

1140
00:58:07,320 --> 00:58:10,040
Speaker 3: his picks. Hopefully they're picks sixes or not picks at

1141
00:58:10,120 --> 00:58:12,080
Speaker 3: the goal line. But there's all the other things with

1142
00:58:12,120 --> 00:58:15,320
Speaker 3: the crowd and emphasis that the refs might have this year.

1143
00:58:15,600 --> 00:58:18,960
Speaker 3: Give me over forty four and a half in Washington recap.

1144
00:58:19,560 --> 00:58:23,840
Speaker 4: I'm going with Giants Broncos under forty two and stuck

1145
00:58:24,040 --> 00:58:29,000
Speaker 4: going with Chargers football team over forty four and a half.

1146
00:58:29,160 --> 00:58:32,560
Speaker 4: Now it's time for our favorite teaser of the week.

1147
00:58:34,120 --> 00:58:37,680
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1148
00:58:38,720 --> 00:58:44,720
Speaker 4: Don't want the team, don't change, don't tease me, try

1149
00:58:44,800 --> 00:58:53,800
Speaker 4: to please, all right, For anyone unfamiliar with teasers, you

1150
00:58:53,840 --> 00:58:56,680
Speaker 4: what it is is you take two or more bets

1151
00:58:56,800 --> 00:58:59,800
Speaker 4: and there's a certain number of points. The standard is six.

1152
00:59:00,080 --> 00:59:04,480
Speaker 4: You get to tease each line that you're taking in

1153
00:59:04,600 --> 00:59:07,040
Speaker 4: the bet down by that number of points, So the

1154
00:59:07,080 --> 00:59:09,880
Speaker 4: standard to six points. So if you had a seven

1155
00:59:09,920 --> 00:59:13,360
Speaker 4: point favorite, they'd become a one point favorite. If you

1156
00:59:13,400 --> 00:59:16,960
Speaker 4: have a one point underdog, they become a seven point underdog.

1157
00:59:17,080 --> 00:59:19,520
Speaker 4: So you get a lot more weewigh and you can

1158
00:59:19,560 --> 00:59:22,560
Speaker 4: be profitable doing this as long as you're teasing through

1159
00:59:22,640 --> 00:59:25,040
Speaker 4: key numbers, which stuck I'll let you talk about a

1160
00:59:25,040 --> 00:59:25,600
Speaker 4: little more.

1161
00:59:26,600 --> 00:59:30,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, Basically, if you can now their books out there

1162
00:59:30,280 --> 00:59:32,400
Speaker 3: are starting to increase the prices that you have to

1163
00:59:32,440 --> 00:59:34,880
Speaker 3: pay on these, and they're changing lines. You know, they'll

1164
00:59:34,920 --> 00:59:36,360
Speaker 3: move a seven point favorite to a nine and a

1165
00:59:36,400 --> 00:59:38,800
Speaker 3: half point favorite. So if you tease down doesn't cross

1166
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:40,320
Speaker 3: the three, that's to tell you all you need to know,

1167
00:59:40,720 --> 00:59:43,240
Speaker 3: because they know that the player has the advantage. If

1168
00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:46,160
Speaker 3: you could tease through the three and seven, so a

1169
00:59:46,280 --> 00:59:49,880
Speaker 3: two and a half point dog up six points, and

1170
00:59:49,920 --> 00:59:51,640
Speaker 3: you want to as long as you're paying minus one

1171
00:59:51,720 --> 00:59:55,080
Speaker 3: twenty or below, or you know, an eight to an

1172
00:59:55,120 --> 00:59:58,080
Speaker 3: eight and a half point favorite down through seven, six,

1173
00:59:58,160 --> 01:00:00,560
Speaker 3: four and three. If you can do that with two

1174
01:00:00,600 --> 01:00:04,320
Speaker 3: sides in a vacuum you having an edge over the book.

1175
01:00:04,880 --> 01:00:08,200
Speaker 3: There are other factors in play. The lower the total,

1176
01:00:08,600 --> 01:00:10,680
Speaker 3: the better it is to do that, because obviously points

1177
01:00:10,680 --> 01:00:13,520
Speaker 3: are more at a premium. I have some content out there.

1178
01:00:13,600 --> 01:00:16,040
Speaker 3: Check it out on Action network dot Com. Just google

1179
01:00:16,160 --> 01:00:21,120
Speaker 3: Stucky Teaser Guide, Ford Falling the Loong teaser stuff.

1180
01:00:21,280 --> 01:00:23,240
Speaker 4: Books don't really have an edge when it comes to teasers.

1181
01:00:23,280 --> 01:00:27,240
Speaker 4: You can profitably tease. So my advice to people out

1182
01:00:27,280 --> 01:00:33,840
Speaker 4: there is teasers over parlays. Like parlays are generally negative.

1183
01:00:33,880 --> 01:00:38,120
Speaker 4: Ev you're much better off long term winning betting the

1184
01:00:38,160 --> 01:00:41,280
Speaker 4: two bets separately. You never you should never be so

1185
01:00:41,400 --> 01:00:45,000
Speaker 4: confident in if you're confident in two bets, make the

1186
01:00:45,040 --> 01:00:47,080
Speaker 4: two bets, But you should never be so confident that

1187
01:00:47,080 --> 01:00:50,520
Speaker 4: two bets are gonna hit that you're decreasing your expected

1188
01:00:50,560 --> 01:00:54,360
Speaker 4: win percentage. Now, the reason I say this is because

1189
01:00:54,560 --> 01:00:56,919
Speaker 4: you know, Stucky kind of talked about it. Books are

1190
01:00:57,160 --> 01:01:00,360
Speaker 4: even trying to adjust to make sure they're not as

1191
01:01:00,400 --> 01:01:02,880
Speaker 4: much on these teasers because they can be done profitably.

1192
01:01:03,080 --> 01:01:05,840
Speaker 4: But I saw an article a few days ago. I

1193
01:01:05,840 --> 01:01:08,320
Speaker 4: wish I remembered where it was from. I may have

1194
01:01:08,360 --> 01:01:10,160
Speaker 4: been ESPN, but I'm not sure so I don't want

1195
01:01:10,200 --> 01:01:12,040
Speaker 4: to don't quote me on that, but there was an

1196
01:01:12,080 --> 01:01:15,560
Speaker 4: article about the fact that books were making like a

1197
01:01:15,640 --> 01:01:20,320
Speaker 4: thirty percent profit on parlays and the profit on like

1198
01:01:20,360 --> 01:01:22,840
Speaker 4: all other type of bets was like under five percent,

1199
01:01:23,120 --> 01:01:25,360
Speaker 4: if any. And so that tells you all you need

1200
01:01:25,400 --> 01:01:28,720
Speaker 4: to know. When you know books are killing it on parlays,

1201
01:01:29,160 --> 01:01:33,480
Speaker 4: they are like scrambling to adjust for teasers to make

1202
01:01:33,520 --> 01:01:37,040
Speaker 4: it not as appetizing for sharps to hit these teasers.

1203
01:01:37,080 --> 01:01:39,760
Speaker 4: So I just want to put that public service announcement

1204
01:01:39,800 --> 01:01:43,320
Speaker 4: out there before we get into that, because we do

1205
01:01:43,400 --> 01:01:46,840
Speaker 4: have our little money line underdog parway. Of course, you

1206
01:01:46,840 --> 01:01:49,160
Speaker 4: can always bet those bets individually, but before we get

1207
01:01:49,200 --> 01:01:52,120
Speaker 4: to that segment, I just want everybody to know that

1208
01:01:52,560 --> 01:01:55,160
Speaker 4: the sharp way to go about it. If you're combining bets,

1209
01:01:55,480 --> 01:01:58,040
Speaker 4: do teasers over parlays.

1210
01:01:57,880 --> 01:01:59,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, just don't tease through zero.

1211
01:02:00,400 --> 01:02:00,600
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1212
01:02:01,520 --> 01:02:04,000
Speaker 3: No, there's a great public service announcement. I guess that's

1213
01:02:04,000 --> 01:02:07,000
Speaker 3: a natural transition into a couple of teaser pieces this

1214
01:02:07,120 --> 01:02:09,400
Speaker 3: week that are options at teaz through three and seven.

1215
01:02:09,440 --> 01:02:13,240
Speaker 3: I'll start I would to go with the colts. I

1216
01:02:13,280 --> 01:02:15,400
Speaker 3: don't love some of the things I'm saying, but I'm teasing.

1217
01:02:15,720 --> 01:02:17,200
Speaker 3: I'm going from two and a half day and a half,

1218
01:02:17,200 --> 01:02:19,760
Speaker 3: and it is a higher total. It's making the Seahawks

1219
01:02:19,800 --> 01:02:22,160
Speaker 3: win the game by two possessions, which they're incapable of doing.

1220
01:02:22,480 --> 01:02:25,880
Speaker 3: And I'll tease them with the Rams down from seven

1221
01:02:25,920 --> 01:02:29,280
Speaker 3: and a half to one and a half. To look,

1222
01:02:29,320 --> 01:02:33,280
Speaker 3: the Bears offensive line is a disaster. They have one

1223
01:02:33,320 --> 01:02:35,120
Speaker 3: really good receiver who's gonna have to go up against

1224
01:02:35,160 --> 01:02:40,120
Speaker 3: Jalen Ramsey. They're starting Andy Dalton. The defense has major

1225
01:02:40,240 --> 01:02:46,240
Speaker 3: questions at corner. This defense is very overrated. Bad play caller.

1226
01:02:46,360 --> 01:02:49,040
Speaker 3: What are they doing starting Dalton? The Rams should win

1227
01:02:49,080 --> 01:02:52,600
Speaker 3: this game now with Stafford in a quarterback, they should

1228
01:02:52,600 --> 01:02:56,320
Speaker 3: have some success throwing on this Bear secondary and the

1229
01:02:56,320 --> 01:02:59,200
Speaker 3: Bears offense is going to be a disaster. I know

1230
01:02:59,240 --> 01:03:02,400
Speaker 3: that the Rams long some pieces on defense, but this

1231
01:03:02,480 --> 01:03:07,360
Speaker 3: Bears offensive line and Dalton, it's gonna be scary for

1232
01:03:07,400 --> 01:03:09,880
Speaker 3: the Bears. So yeah, I like, I'm gonna go Rams

1233
01:03:09,880 --> 01:03:10,600
Speaker 3: and Colts.

1234
01:03:11,040 --> 01:03:14,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going Rams from seven and a half to

1235
01:03:14,040 --> 01:03:16,640
Speaker 4: one and a half. So I like the Rams as well.

1236
01:03:16,720 --> 01:03:19,840
Speaker 4: I mean, you've kind of hit on all the key points.

1237
01:03:20,240 --> 01:03:23,160
Speaker 4: I'm also going with the Niners down from seven and

1238
01:03:23,200 --> 01:03:25,120
Speaker 4: a half to one and a half. But I'll talk

1239
01:03:25,160 --> 01:03:27,160
Speaker 4: a little more about the Rams first, because just a

1240
01:03:27,240 --> 01:03:31,200
Speaker 4: piggyback on what you said, you know, bottom five offensive

1241
01:03:31,520 --> 01:03:34,360
Speaker 4: line according to Pro Football Focus, I would agree with

1242
01:03:34,400 --> 01:03:38,040
Speaker 4: that assessment. Andy Dalton's been one of the worst quarterbacks

1243
01:03:38,120 --> 01:03:40,640
Speaker 4: under pressure pretty much his entire career. He's kind of

1244
01:03:40,680 --> 01:03:42,760
Speaker 4: like another Baker, you know, one of those guys that

1245
01:03:43,040 --> 01:03:46,200
Speaker 4: anytime you expect a lot of pressure just wipes up

1246
01:03:46,240 --> 01:03:49,919
Speaker 4: like up fade Andy Dalton Kindle Wilder fifth round pick

1247
01:03:50,160 --> 01:03:54,360
Speaker 4: from last year forty six PFF grade and coverage Duke Shelley.

1248
01:03:54,640 --> 01:03:57,720
Speaker 4: He's gonna play probably in the slot, sixth rounder from

1249
01:03:57,720 --> 01:04:01,040
Speaker 4: twenty nineteen jayn j since their only corner that was

1250
01:04:01,120 --> 01:04:04,280
Speaker 4: ranked above eighty fourth by Pro Football Focus. And he's

1251
01:04:04,480 --> 01:04:07,440
Speaker 4: you know, like yeah, I mean, you know, some of

1252
01:04:07,480 --> 01:04:09,560
Speaker 4: the time these guys in year two make a little weep,

1253
01:04:09,720 --> 01:04:11,720
Speaker 4: But I mean you're talking about going You're talking about

1254
01:04:11,720 --> 01:04:14,560
Speaker 4: a shrumpcvay offense with a good quarterback, with three good receivers.

1255
01:04:14,600 --> 01:04:17,160
Speaker 4: Because DeShawn is healthy for his two games, this is

1256
01:04:17,240 --> 01:04:19,920
Speaker 4: this is the Deshaun Jackson. Six catches, one hundred and

1257
01:04:19,920 --> 01:04:22,280
Speaker 4: thirty seven yards and two touchdowns, game like it has.

1258
01:04:22,160 --> 01:04:22,600
Speaker 3: To be right.

1259
01:04:22,960 --> 01:04:25,960
Speaker 4: I mean, the only thing because like usually this is

1260
01:04:26,000 --> 01:04:28,520
Speaker 4: an undergame, like I auto under. I mean MCVA or

1261
01:04:28,600 --> 01:04:31,080
Speaker 4: Snaggy twenty four to ten last year seventeen to seven,

1262
01:04:31,120 --> 01:04:34,160
Speaker 4: a year before fifteen six. Chicago the year before average

1263
01:04:34,160 --> 01:04:37,040
Speaker 4: twenty six point three points. I don't see Chicago scoring,

1264
01:04:37,080 --> 01:04:39,720
Speaker 4: but I am a little worried that the Rams could

1265
01:04:39,720 --> 01:04:41,600
Speaker 4: actually run up the score because I agreed his defense

1266
01:04:41,680 --> 01:04:44,080
Speaker 4: is overrated. So I love teasing this down. I mean

1267
01:04:44,320 --> 01:04:47,680
Speaker 4: I probably wouldn't feel uncomfortable taking the seven and a

1268
01:04:47,720 --> 01:04:50,120
Speaker 4: half year. I'm not gonna do it. I'm just gonna

1269
01:04:50,160 --> 01:04:53,480
Speaker 4: tease him. But like I the most likely outcome for

1270
01:04:53,560 --> 01:04:56,960
Speaker 4: me is the Ram bowing the Bears out. I love

1271
01:04:57,000 --> 01:04:59,840
Speaker 4: the Bears win total under for the season. I'm just

1272
01:05:00,200 --> 01:05:02,920
Speaker 4: on the Bears this year and San Francisco against Detroit.

1273
01:05:02,960 --> 01:05:05,320
Speaker 4: I mean, there's not a lot to be said here.

1274
01:05:05,360 --> 01:05:08,360
Speaker 4: I feel like San Francisco's gonna be healthier than last year.

1275
01:05:09,120 --> 01:05:11,280
Speaker 4: Jimmy g is twenty two and eight as a starter,

1276
01:05:11,760 --> 01:05:14,440
Speaker 4: twelve and five against the spread on a road, but

1277
01:05:14,840 --> 01:05:17,240
Speaker 4: a little under five hundred as a favorite against the spread.

1278
01:05:17,280 --> 01:05:19,440
Speaker 4: That is, which just shows that you know they're winning games,

1279
01:05:19,440 --> 01:05:21,960
Speaker 4: but they don't always cover the big numbers. So like

1280
01:05:22,040 --> 01:05:25,320
Speaker 4: teasing is down as well. Detroit might be scrappy. They

1281
01:05:25,400 --> 01:05:27,960
Speaker 4: might run the ball a lot with Dan Campbell muck

1282
01:05:28,040 --> 01:05:30,560
Speaker 4: things up, It's not gonna be as terrible as Matt Patricia.

1283
01:05:30,560 --> 01:05:32,760
Speaker 4: I don't think. I think Dan Campbell like even though

1284
01:05:32,800 --> 01:05:34,600
Speaker 4: he comes off as a little goofy, I think he

1285
01:05:34,640 --> 01:05:35,440
Speaker 4: knows what he's doing.

1286
01:05:35,800 --> 01:05:38,040
Speaker 6: So this team, Detroit, We're gonna kick you in the teeth,

1287
01:05:38,240 --> 01:05:40,000
Speaker 6: and when you punch its, we're gonna smile at you.

1288
01:05:40,040 --> 01:05:42,320
Speaker 6: And when you knock us down, we're gonna get up.

1289
01:05:42,360 --> 01:05:44,480
Speaker 6: And on the way up, we're gonna buy a kneecap off.

1290
01:05:44,680 --> 01:05:47,440
Speaker 6: All right, We're gonna take your other kneecap before long

1291
01:05:47,520 --> 01:05:49,200
Speaker 6: where they're gonna be the last one standing.

1292
01:05:49,720 --> 01:05:51,880
Speaker 4: But he's in it down to one and a half.

1293
01:05:52,120 --> 01:05:55,480
Speaker 4: I expect San Francisco to still comfortable. He handled his

1294
01:05:55,560 --> 01:05:58,200
Speaker 4: game from wire to wire, so I don't think this

1295
01:05:58,240 --> 01:06:00,000
Speaker 4: should be too much of a sweat teasing him down

1296
01:06:00,720 --> 01:06:03,720
Speaker 4: Detroit just you know they have a Detannel line. But

1297
01:06:03,840 --> 01:06:06,080
Speaker 4: Jared Goff, you know San Francisco's gonna be able to

1298
01:06:06,080 --> 01:06:08,800
Speaker 4: get pressure, and they could get pressure without even stending

1299
01:06:08,840 --> 01:06:11,720
Speaker 4: extra rushers, and you got one of the worst quarterbacks

1300
01:06:11,760 --> 01:06:16,280
Speaker 4: against pressure, one of the worst receiving corps in the league.

1301
01:06:16,320 --> 01:06:16,920
Speaker 3: Secondary.

1302
01:06:17,560 --> 01:06:19,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, secondary. And then on the other side, I mean

1303
01:06:20,080 --> 01:06:22,919
Speaker 4: San Francisco, you know, with Jimmy g like this is

1304
01:06:23,000 --> 01:06:25,160
Speaker 4: this is a good offense. You know, they were a

1305
01:06:25,200 --> 01:06:28,760
Speaker 4: good offense. Trey Lance goes or not, Trey Lance packages

1306
01:06:28,880 --> 01:06:31,000
Speaker 4: or not. You know, why not just tease it down

1307
01:06:31,600 --> 01:06:34,720
Speaker 4: like love San Francisco in this spot. San Francisco rams

1308
01:06:34,720 --> 01:06:38,800
Speaker 4: for me, hotes rams for you. That is our favorite

1309
01:06:38,800 --> 01:06:41,920
Speaker 4: teaser segment of the week. And now it's time for

1310
01:06:42,000 --> 01:06:45,240
Speaker 4: our money line underdog parlay.

1311
01:06:47,600 --> 01:06:52,520
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1312
01:06:52,680 --> 01:06:53,960
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

1313
01:06:54,920 --> 01:06:56,480
Speaker 4: All right, So I know I just kind of shoot

1314
01:06:56,520 --> 01:06:58,520
Speaker 4: on parlays in the last segment. I was just trying

1315
01:06:58,520 --> 01:07:01,120
Speaker 4: to just give people, you know, all the facts, but

1316
01:07:01,440 --> 01:07:03,280
Speaker 4: throw all that out the window because we're in our

1317
01:07:03,320 --> 01:07:07,440
Speaker 4: parlay segment. Now we each pick an underdog we like

1318
01:07:07,520 --> 01:07:10,360
Speaker 4: the parlaying together see if we can hit some really

1319
01:07:10,440 --> 01:07:13,720
Speaker 4: juicy odds. For you guys stuck, I'll let you start

1320
01:07:14,000 --> 01:07:15,880
Speaker 4: who you're going with for your money line dog in

1321
01:07:15,920 --> 01:07:16,360
Speaker 4: week one?

1322
01:07:16,760 --> 01:07:18,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, we already talked about this game, so I won't

1323
01:07:18,840 --> 01:07:20,920
Speaker 3: go dive into it too much, but I'm going with

1324
01:07:21,000 --> 01:07:23,880
Speaker 3: the Eagles. I think that this defense is going to

1325
01:07:23,920 --> 01:07:28,320
Speaker 3: be improved significantly. You know, the offense should have some

1326
01:07:28,360 --> 01:07:32,720
Speaker 3: success against the questionable Falcons defense. I think there's some

1327
01:07:32,840 --> 01:07:35,440
Speaker 3: value of taking the Eagles plus one forty on the

1328
01:07:35,480 --> 01:07:36,120
Speaker 3: money line.

1329
01:07:36,760 --> 01:07:39,840
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, I like that. I fully expect that the

1330
01:07:39,880 --> 01:07:42,520
Speaker 4: Eagles have a good chance to win this game, So

1331
01:07:43,080 --> 01:07:46,720
Speaker 4: I love that. The only disappointing thing is that not

1332
01:07:46,800 --> 01:07:50,120
Speaker 4: as much disagreement on this pod maybe as in some weeks.

1333
01:07:50,120 --> 01:07:52,000
Speaker 3: It's coming. We got all we got all seasons for

1334
01:07:52,080 --> 01:07:53,960
Speaker 3: that week one. Week one is for learning.

1335
01:07:53,680 --> 01:07:57,800
Speaker 4: Any of Yeah, no, I agree for my moneyline dog

1336
01:07:57,840 --> 01:08:00,520
Speaker 4: for Week one, I am going with and here we're

1337
01:08:00,560 --> 01:08:03,800
Speaker 4: gonna get ugly. We're gonna get super ugly. If you

1338
01:08:03,840 --> 01:08:06,080
Speaker 4: guys were if you guys listen to our AFC win

1339
01:08:06,160 --> 01:08:09,640
Speaker 4: Totals pod, you know, I was just having a riot

1340
01:08:09,680 --> 01:08:13,160
Speaker 4: of a time. He's in Sean Kerner and stuck about

1341
01:08:13,160 --> 01:08:16,160
Speaker 4: the strength of schedule projections for the AFC South because

1342
01:08:16,200 --> 01:08:18,719
Speaker 4: I felt like it was all Texans making their strength

1343
01:08:18,720 --> 01:08:20,400
Speaker 4: of schedules covered in like the rest of the league

1344
01:08:20,400 --> 01:08:22,439
Speaker 4: when it really wasn't true. So we're gonna get real

1345
01:08:22,560 --> 01:08:27,840
Speaker 4: ugly here. Moneyline Doug Houston Texans Week one plus one

1346
01:08:27,960 --> 01:08:33,840
Speaker 4: thirty at bet MGM against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Could Jacksonville

1347
01:08:33,880 --> 01:08:34,720
Speaker 4: blow Houston out?

1348
01:08:35,000 --> 01:08:35,280
Speaker 3: Sure?

1349
01:08:35,840 --> 01:08:37,679
Speaker 4: Could Houston blow Jacksonville out?

1350
01:08:38,000 --> 01:08:38,640
Speaker 3: Maybe?

1351
01:08:39,080 --> 01:08:41,960
Speaker 4: Listen. I don't do nothing that Erban Meyer has done

1352
01:08:42,040 --> 01:08:44,840
Speaker 4: since taking over as an NFL head coach has inspired

1353
01:08:44,880 --> 01:08:47,200
Speaker 4: confidence that this could not, this may not be a

1354
01:08:47,240 --> 01:08:52,519
Speaker 4: train wreck. Number One, you hire a cancellable strength and

1355
01:08:52,560 --> 01:08:56,960
Speaker 4: conditioning coach, fire him immediately. You hire a tight end

1356
01:08:56,960 --> 01:08:58,599
Speaker 4: that's not fit to play tight end and then release

1357
01:08:58,680 --> 01:09:00,200
Speaker 4: him like you just gave up a free rot the

1358
01:09:00,200 --> 01:09:03,880
Speaker 4: spot on a ninety roster for for your old friend

1359
01:09:04,320 --> 01:09:07,840
Speaker 4: who's trying to make a comeback that everyone knows isn't happening.

1360
01:09:07,840 --> 01:09:10,280
Speaker 4: In Tim Tebow wasted a roster spot. I don't that's

1361
01:09:10,320 --> 01:09:11,960
Speaker 4: not good for the locker room. I don't care how

1362
01:09:11,960 --> 01:09:15,080
Speaker 4: they spin it. Play games. With your number one overall

1363
01:09:15,120 --> 01:09:18,080
Speaker 4: pick Trevor Lawrence, you don't immediately annoint him as a

1364
01:09:18,120 --> 01:09:21,720
Speaker 4: starting quarterback. Everyone knows he's a starter. Another thing is

1365
01:09:21,920 --> 01:09:24,000
Speaker 4: I don't think that plays well in the locker room.

1366
01:09:24,320 --> 01:09:25,920
Speaker 4: You know, you get in trouble for this coach. I mean,

1367
01:09:25,960 --> 01:09:28,519
Speaker 4: this was probably the realest thing he did. But you

1368
01:09:28,520 --> 01:09:30,360
Speaker 4: don't admit this because then you just get in trouble,

1369
01:09:30,560 --> 01:09:32,519
Speaker 4: you know, for for saying that you know the vaccination

1370
01:09:32,600 --> 01:09:35,080
Speaker 4: status is going to play a role. He's just making

1371
01:09:35,120 --> 01:09:38,599
Speaker 4: a lot of mistakes. He was. The offense was slow.

1372
01:09:38,960 --> 01:09:43,040
Speaker 4: For the pace is slow, Houston. I think what's going

1373
01:09:43,120 --> 01:09:45,840
Speaker 4: to happen here is you have ty Redditt quarterback. You

1374
01:09:45,920 --> 01:09:48,280
Speaker 4: have a decent, you know, decent left tackle.

1375
01:09:48,640 --> 01:09:52,840
Speaker 3: Trying to say positive things about the Texans is very en.

1376
01:09:52,880 --> 01:09:54,040
Speaker 4: They're bad, but that's the thing.

1377
01:09:54,240 --> 01:09:56,960
Speaker 3: The right tackle, though, is Marcus Cannon, who hasn't played

1378
01:09:57,080 --> 01:09:59,960
Speaker 3: in like two years and didn't play in preseason.

1379
01:10:00,040 --> 01:10:02,960
Speaker 4: You've been above Everton in his PFF grade last four years.

1380
01:10:03,000 --> 01:10:04,559
Speaker 4: He did play. I mean, I know, I know.

1381
01:10:04,680 --> 01:10:06,800
Speaker 3: No, I'm just saying I'm surprised they went with it. Look,

1382
01:10:07,280 --> 01:10:09,840
Speaker 3: Tyrold won't turn the ball over. I'll give you two

1383
01:10:09,840 --> 01:10:12,639
Speaker 3: stats that will back you up. Week one home division

1384
01:10:12,680 --> 01:10:15,559
Speaker 3: dogs since twenty ten eight This is the only one

1385
01:10:15,560 --> 01:10:18,880
Speaker 3: this week eighteen and five against the spread, number one

1386
01:10:18,960 --> 01:10:21,160
Speaker 3: pick in Week one. This is more fun than anything else.

1387
01:10:21,560 --> 01:10:25,000
Speaker 3: Number one overall pick starting in Week one hasn't won

1388
01:10:25,040 --> 01:10:28,360
Speaker 3: since two thousand and two. Six and one straight up

1389
01:10:29,200 --> 01:10:30,920
Speaker 3: in two thousand and two. You know who that was

1390
01:10:30,960 --> 01:10:34,400
Speaker 3: that won? Actually it was actually a Houston Texan, David Clark.

1391
01:10:34,840 --> 01:10:36,600
Speaker 3: This is where a home division dogs. This might be

1392
01:10:36,600 --> 01:10:38,400
Speaker 3: the only game to Texas win all year. That's what

1393
01:10:38,439 --> 01:10:41,280
Speaker 3: the Jags did last year. Jags won Week one and

1394
01:10:41,280 --> 01:10:43,080
Speaker 3: then lost the remaining in their games.

1395
01:10:43,320 --> 01:10:45,360
Speaker 4: If you're betting at the Jags, it's like, this is

1396
01:10:45,560 --> 01:10:48,320
Speaker 4: just a lot of faith in like Trevor and Urban,

1397
01:10:48,360 --> 01:10:51,320
Speaker 4: which may be warranted, especially Trevor, but like it's like

1398
01:10:52,280 --> 01:10:54,760
Speaker 4: in what in what who's right mind? Do you go

1399
01:10:54,840 --> 01:10:56,559
Speaker 4: and say, oh, yeah, the team that went one in

1400
01:10:56,560 --> 01:10:59,320
Speaker 4: fifteen last year, let's go bet on them minus three

1401
01:10:59,520 --> 01:11:01,840
Speaker 4: on the row. Give me the Texans all day.

1402
01:11:02,200 --> 01:11:06,599
Speaker 3: You're fitting road favorite Jacksonville and I'm playing I'm betting

1403
01:11:07,360 --> 01:11:10,080
Speaker 3: a home dog in Jacksonville in the Saints.

1404
01:11:10,120 --> 01:11:13,639
Speaker 4: Right. Yeah, it's like how to be football in Jacksonville?

1405
01:11:13,640 --> 01:11:17,680
Speaker 4: Somehows this week it wasn't. But yeah, no, this is

1406
01:11:17,720 --> 01:11:19,640
Speaker 4: this is what we're doing. Man. I think we have

1407
01:11:19,760 --> 01:11:21,839
Speaker 4: we both have a good chance of winning these bets,

1408
01:11:22,360 --> 01:11:24,960
Speaker 4: so that was our money line dog start going Philly

1409
01:11:25,240 --> 01:11:30,240
Speaker 4: plus one forty at Atlanta. I'm going Texans plus one

1410
01:11:30,360 --> 01:11:36,400
Speaker 4: thirty at home against the Jags. So together that is

1411
01:11:36,479 --> 01:11:39,280
Speaker 4: a four and a half to one payout. So if

1412
01:11:39,320 --> 01:11:42,639
Speaker 4: you bet one hundred dollars on a parway, you would

1413
01:11:42,680 --> 01:11:45,840
Speaker 4: win four fifty two for a total payout of five

1414
01:11:45,920 --> 01:11:50,120
Speaker 4: fifty two. You can check the Action Networks parlay calculator

1415
01:11:50,160 --> 01:11:55,280
Speaker 4: at actionnetwork dot com Slash Betting Calculator, Slash Parlay Calculator,

1416
01:11:55,400 --> 01:11:58,360
Speaker 4: or in the Action Network app. Let's quickly go through

1417
01:11:58,400 --> 01:12:02,160
Speaker 4: the best of the red. Pittsburgh plus six and a

1418
01:12:02,200 --> 01:12:05,639
Speaker 4: half at Buffalo the totals forty nine. Stuck for this one.

1419
01:12:05,800 --> 01:12:08,000
Speaker 4: I'm looking at that match up from last year Buffalo

1420
01:12:08,000 --> 01:12:10,080
Speaker 4: on twenty six to fifteen. They got to pick six

1421
01:12:10,479 --> 01:12:12,800
Speaker 4: Josh Allen ten of fourteen one hundred and thirty yards

1422
01:12:12,800 --> 01:12:15,760
Speaker 4: and a touch to Stefan Diggs fourteen to twenty nine.

1423
01:12:16,160 --> 01:12:19,120
Speaker 4: Won await with a touchdown and a pick to everyone else,

1424
01:12:20,280 --> 01:12:22,880
Speaker 4: and then Tom win with that road under when it's

1425
01:12:22,920 --> 01:12:25,559
Speaker 4: between forty three and a half and fifty one forty

1426
01:12:25,560 --> 01:12:27,920
Speaker 4: two fifteen to one in his career seventy four percent,

1427
01:12:28,840 --> 01:12:31,160
Speaker 4: so is Josh Allen going to be able to do

1428
01:12:31,200 --> 01:12:33,200
Speaker 4: anything other than throw to Stefon Diggs in his game.

1429
01:12:34,040 --> 01:12:35,040
Speaker 4: I guess it is my question.

1430
01:12:35,600 --> 01:12:39,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have major questions about the Steelers' depth at corner.

1431
01:12:39,560 --> 01:12:41,760
Speaker 3: You know, they lost some guys and they're really they

1432
01:12:41,920 --> 01:12:44,880
Speaker 3: they're really, really thin. And the Bills, I think this year,

1433
01:12:44,920 --> 01:12:47,080
Speaker 3: are going to spread teams out for wide as much

1434
01:12:47,120 --> 01:12:50,240
Speaker 3: as anyone maybe outside of Arizona, just like last year.

1435
01:12:50,960 --> 01:12:53,559
Speaker 3: So I have some questions about how the Steelers secondary

1436
01:12:53,560 --> 01:12:56,800
Speaker 3: will hold out up here. I love the Bills, I'm

1437
01:12:56,840 --> 01:12:58,760
Speaker 3: low on the Steelers. What is this offense going to

1438
01:12:58,800 --> 01:13:01,559
Speaker 3: look like? Right? Mac Cannada coming in, more play action,

1439
01:13:02,280 --> 01:13:06,160
Speaker 3: more running with Naji Harris, But can the offensive line

1440
01:13:06,160 --> 01:13:08,840
Speaker 3: hold up? The Bill's defense really improved over the second

1441
01:13:08,880 --> 01:13:11,120
Speaker 3: half the year. They're now healthy. You know, they add

1442
01:13:11,200 --> 01:13:14,280
Speaker 3: Star back at the defensive tackle position. So like, I

1443
01:13:14,360 --> 01:13:16,640
Speaker 3: think that the defense is going to be fine. But

1444
01:13:16,680 --> 01:13:19,240
Speaker 3: it's a right I make the line seven point one

1445
01:13:19,880 --> 01:13:22,040
Speaker 3: no play for me, But it is a raw ra

1446
01:13:22,160 --> 01:13:23,040
Speaker 3: spot for Tomlin.

1447
01:13:23,520 --> 01:13:27,000
Speaker 1: What a raw ron Mike Tomlin spot.

1448
01:13:27,360 --> 01:13:30,599
Speaker 3: We win the game when this cruel bodies right here today,

1449
01:13:31,880 --> 01:13:35,439
Speaker 3: ring you only game to day. Look, here's that you

1450
01:13:35,520 --> 01:13:37,519
Speaker 3: know about Tomlin, one of the biggest US against the

1451
01:13:37,520 --> 01:13:40,599
Speaker 3: world motivators when he's an underdog. When he's a favorite,

1452
01:13:40,640 --> 01:13:44,040
Speaker 3: double digit favorite, he's just like, yeah, and this team

1453
01:13:44,120 --> 01:13:46,679
Speaker 3: isn't fired up. Thirteen and twenty two against the spread

1454
01:13:46,720 --> 01:13:48,920
Speaker 3: is a double digit favorite. That's worst of seventy nine

1455
01:13:49,000 --> 01:13:52,040
Speaker 3: coaches in our Action Labs database. He's about five hundred

1456
01:13:52,320 --> 01:13:55,559
Speaker 3: on the road as a double digit favorite against teams

1457
01:13:55,560 --> 01:13:58,360
Speaker 3: with losing records. Straight up double digit favorite.

1458
01:13:59,080 --> 01:14:00,920
Speaker 4: I don't want to hear by the labor pays man.

1459
01:14:01,000 --> 01:14:02,360
Speaker 4: Deliver the damn baby.

1460
01:14:02,479 --> 01:14:04,519
Speaker 3: Thirty two to twelve and one against the spread as

1461
01:14:04,560 --> 01:14:06,560
Speaker 3: a dog. That's number one out of one hundred and

1462
01:14:06,600 --> 01:14:09,200
Speaker 3: twenty nine coaches in our database in two thousand and three,

1463
01:14:09,439 --> 01:14:13,479
Speaker 3: twenty three and nine against the spread against winning teams

1464
01:14:13,520 --> 01:14:16,599
Speaker 3: on the road as a dog. This is his kind

1465
01:14:16,600 --> 01:14:18,479
Speaker 3: of spot. But you know, I make the line seven

1466
01:14:18,479 --> 01:14:21,719
Speaker 3: point one. There's too many advantages that think the Bills

1467
01:14:21,760 --> 01:14:23,720
Speaker 3: have here, So it's a pass for me.

1468
01:14:24,280 --> 01:14:25,559
Speaker 4: You ain't know to us no more.

1469
01:14:25,640 --> 01:14:26,800
Speaker 3: Now you know what I mean?

1470
01:14:27,640 --> 01:14:30,599
Speaker 4: He is being like a twenty to sixteen Bills win.

1471
01:14:30,840 --> 01:14:33,000
Speaker 4: I would lean Bills in the under if I had to.

1472
01:14:33,200 --> 01:14:35,160
Speaker 4: I mean, excuse me, Steeers in the under. If I

1473
01:14:35,160 --> 01:14:38,280
Speaker 4: had to go but agree, I'd rather kind of quate

1474
01:14:38,280 --> 01:14:40,240
Speaker 4: a conservative because Big Ben did not have a good

1475
01:14:40,240 --> 01:14:43,040
Speaker 4: go at it against his defense last year and they

1476
01:14:43,040 --> 01:14:45,720
Speaker 4: only ran for forty seven yards in seventeen carries. So

1477
01:14:46,240 --> 01:14:48,639
Speaker 4: I don't know if the Steelers can get enough offense

1478
01:14:48,680 --> 01:14:50,720
Speaker 4: to really you know, the Bills, that's what they got.

1479
01:14:50,760 --> 01:14:53,640
Speaker 4: They have offense, you know, even against even against good defenses.

1480
01:14:53,680 --> 01:14:58,439
Speaker 4: So let's go to Minnesota at Sincy.

1481
01:14:59,160 --> 01:15:02,760
Speaker 3: The Cincinnati Bengals ended their season the same way that

1482
01:15:02,840 --> 01:15:07,000
Speaker 3: they started it, with a die hard commitment. The Bengals

1483
01:15:07,080 --> 01:15:08,320
Speaker 3: battled tenaciously.

1484
01:15:08,920 --> 01:15:12,759
Speaker 4: Minnesota is a three point favorite, juiced up to minus

1485
01:15:12,760 --> 01:15:14,920
Speaker 4: one twenty at bet MGM, the official odds provider of

1486
01:15:14,960 --> 01:15:17,639
Speaker 4: the Action Network podcast. The totals forty seven and a half.

1487
01:15:17,880 --> 01:15:21,840
Speaker 4: The interesting thing to me in this one was Minnesota

1488
01:15:22,720 --> 01:15:25,640
Speaker 4: with steam. There's a steam move on Minnesota that we

1489
01:15:25,680 --> 01:15:29,360
Speaker 4: tracked here to Action Network, which you know, it just

1490
01:15:29,439 --> 01:15:34,160
Speaker 4: means a bunch of big betters kind of hammered Minnesota

1491
01:15:34,240 --> 01:15:37,160
Speaker 4: in a kind of uniform fashion across the different across

1492
01:15:37,160 --> 01:15:40,719
Speaker 4: different books. But you can make money fading these moves.

1493
01:15:40,720 --> 01:15:42,840
Speaker 4: A lot of times when there's been a steam move

1494
01:15:42,880 --> 01:15:45,679
Speaker 4: on the when there's been a steam move, those teams

1495
01:15:45,680 --> 01:15:48,439
Speaker 4: are just eighty eight and one forty seven. When the

1496
01:15:48,479 --> 01:15:51,559
Speaker 4: line is they're favored by two and a half to

1497
01:15:51,600 --> 01:15:53,960
Speaker 4: twelve and a half. So that's just a thirty seven

1498
01:15:54,000 --> 01:15:56,320
Speaker 4: percent cover rate. So the dogs are hitting sixty three

1499
01:15:56,360 --> 01:16:00,439
Speaker 4: percent in those spots. So that's also remindered that you know,

1500
01:16:00,720 --> 01:16:04,080
Speaker 4: don't always you know, pale just blindly because a lot

1501
01:16:04,120 --> 01:16:07,719
Speaker 4: of times you know the sharp better is the biggest

1502
01:16:07,800 --> 01:16:10,439
Speaker 4: betters are getting the best of the line, and these

1503
01:16:10,439 --> 01:16:12,960
Speaker 4: things not always profitable if you're just kind of tagging

1504
01:16:13,000 --> 01:16:15,880
Speaker 4: on late. So that was kind of Sometimes some groups

1505
01:16:15,880 --> 01:16:16,840
Speaker 4: are shaping a line.

1506
01:16:16,840 --> 01:16:18,599
Speaker 3: They might be shaping a line, moving it one way

1507
01:16:18,600 --> 01:16:21,599
Speaker 3: to come back later. You know, you you'd never really know,

1508
01:16:21,680 --> 01:16:24,200
Speaker 3: so just cap the games and bet with your life.

1509
01:16:24,640 --> 01:16:26,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, I got don't like I don't I don't love

1510
01:16:26,760 --> 01:16:30,360
Speaker 4: Minnesota here anyway, just three point favorite three and a

1511
01:16:30,400 --> 01:16:34,479
Speaker 4: half at some spots, even on the road. But also

1512
01:16:34,560 --> 01:16:37,400
Speaker 4: don't want to bet Cincinnati. Given the questions on the wine,

1513
01:16:37,439 --> 01:16:40,519
Speaker 4: given the questions with Jamar Chase, is this just a

1514
01:16:40,800 --> 01:16:43,320
Speaker 4: momentary hiccup or is this like a real is gonna

1515
01:16:43,320 --> 01:16:45,360
Speaker 4: be an issue like a John Ross type of issue,

1516
01:16:45,400 --> 01:16:49,800
Speaker 4: like what's going on there? So passing me but leaning

1517
01:16:49,840 --> 01:16:52,080
Speaker 4: anyway with this With this one, I.

1518
01:16:52,080 --> 01:16:55,200
Speaker 3: Make it like just under three. No interest. This is

1519
01:16:55,240 --> 01:16:57,800
Speaker 3: the game I don't for some reason for betting, got

1520
01:16:57,840 --> 01:17:00,519
Speaker 3: the least amount of interest in this week. Absolutely no

1521
01:17:00,560 --> 01:17:02,720
Speaker 3: interest in this game. If I bet it, you have

1522
01:17:02,760 --> 01:17:05,960
Speaker 3: permission to slap me across the face if you see me.

1523
01:17:06,320 --> 01:17:11,840
Speaker 4: I Jets at Panthers, the Sam Donald Revenge Game, the

1524
01:17:11,840 --> 01:17:14,040
Speaker 4: Sam Donald Bowl, whatever you want to call it. Jets

1525
01:17:14,160 --> 01:17:17,000
Speaker 4: plus five at bet MGM the total forty four and

1526
01:17:17,000 --> 01:17:20,120
Speaker 4: a half. The Jets fit one of our Action Networks

1527
01:17:20,120 --> 01:17:23,519
Speaker 4: pro systems, which is an underdog with a low total

1528
01:17:23,560 --> 01:17:26,240
Speaker 4: game and low total meeting like anything under fifty now,

1529
01:17:26,640 --> 01:17:28,280
Speaker 4: so you know things have changed quite a bit, but

1530
01:17:28,520 --> 01:17:30,600
Speaker 4: low total after a bad season. You know, when you

1531
01:17:30,720 --> 01:17:33,160
Speaker 4: win six or three games, those are those dogs are

1532
01:17:33,200 --> 01:17:36,720
Speaker 4: hitting sixty one percent. Believe Eagles also fit that that

1533
01:17:36,720 --> 01:17:41,040
Speaker 4: that that system. But the line seems to be getting

1534
01:17:41,040 --> 01:17:44,080
Speaker 4: away from the Jets. Here. Any thoughts on this one?

1535
01:17:44,720 --> 01:17:48,759
Speaker 3: Now? I make it six. This is no the clearest,

1536
01:17:48,800 --> 01:17:53,200
Speaker 3: no better other than Vikings Bengals. This is just do

1537
01:17:53,240 --> 01:17:55,080
Speaker 3: you believe in Donald. I don't, but we'll see what

1538
01:17:55,160 --> 01:17:57,599
Speaker 3: Donald still doesn't have a great offensive line, it has

1539
01:17:57,640 --> 01:18:00,880
Speaker 3: better weapons, new coaching staff that I like. So let's

1540
01:18:00,880 --> 01:18:02,920
Speaker 3: see what Donald has against his old team. There's some

1541
01:18:03,000 --> 01:18:06,800
Speaker 3: familiarity there, and then we'll see what Zach Wilson has.

1542
01:18:06,840 --> 01:18:09,600
Speaker 3: So if you believe even in one of these quarterbacks,

1543
01:18:09,640 --> 01:18:12,320
Speaker 3: it's a sneaky over here. If you believe in both,

1544
01:18:12,880 --> 01:18:16,040
Speaker 3: hit this over. For me probably pass.

1545
01:18:16,479 --> 01:18:19,360
Speaker 4: I actually weaned under on it. I think I would

1546
01:18:19,560 --> 01:18:21,880
Speaker 4: rather bet the under than anything else in this game because,

1547
01:18:22,240 --> 01:18:24,960
Speaker 4: like you mentioned, Carolina thirtieth ranked O line by PFF,

1548
01:18:25,080 --> 01:18:28,920
Speaker 4: Jets twenty second h crowders on and the Panther starting

1549
01:18:28,920 --> 01:18:32,000
Speaker 4: guard is out for Covid Worth. Yeah, Crowder probably misses

1550
01:18:32,040 --> 01:18:35,080
Speaker 4: for Covid. But also just look at it from this perspective.

1551
01:18:35,080 --> 01:18:36,360
Speaker 4: You have two of the You have one of the

1552
01:18:36,360 --> 01:18:38,760
Speaker 4: worst quarterbacks in the league or he's been the work

1553
01:18:38,800 --> 01:18:40,280
Speaker 4: one of the worst quarterbacks in the week in Donald.

1554
01:18:40,400 --> 01:18:43,960
Speaker 4: You have another guy who's unproven uh in Jack Wilson

1555
01:18:44,000 --> 01:18:46,720
Speaker 4: making his first start as a rookie on the road.

1556
01:18:47,120 --> 01:18:50,280
Speaker 4: You have a defensive coach coming in for an offensive

1557
01:18:50,280 --> 01:18:53,160
Speaker 4: coach for the Jets. So Robert Sala might be able

1558
01:18:53,160 --> 01:18:55,040
Speaker 4: to cobble something together even though I have no faith

1559
01:18:55,080 --> 01:18:58,640
Speaker 4: in their cornerback group and their defensive line got decimated.

1560
01:18:58,680 --> 01:19:01,760
Speaker 4: But then on the other side, Matt Ruhle, you know,

1561
01:19:01,840 --> 01:19:03,760
Speaker 4: Darnald gets all the headlines, but what they really did

1562
01:19:03,840 --> 01:19:06,640
Speaker 4: was build up their defense. I mean, their defense has

1563
01:19:06,680 --> 01:19:08,800
Speaker 4: some has some talent. I think, you know, some of

1564
01:19:08,840 --> 01:19:12,320
Speaker 4: the weak spots last year, they shored up a little bit.

1565
01:19:12,360 --> 01:19:15,720
Speaker 4: And I mean they were overperforming last year, and like

1566
01:19:15,920 --> 01:19:17,640
Speaker 4: you were always kind of lamentsing, like how is this

1567
01:19:17,680 --> 01:19:20,680
Speaker 4: Carolina Panthers defense even hanging in there? So like I

1568
01:19:21,040 --> 01:19:23,479
Speaker 4: actually would lean under in this one. I feel like

1569
01:19:24,040 --> 01:19:26,240
Speaker 4: they're just we're giving a way too much credit to

1570
01:19:26,320 --> 01:19:31,519
Speaker 4: to bottom tier quarterbacks and offensive line. Cleveland KC probably

1571
01:19:31,520 --> 01:19:33,120
Speaker 4: one of the most interesting games in the week, So

1572
01:19:33,160 --> 01:19:36,120
Speaker 4: of course it only makes sense that neither of us

1573
01:19:36,160 --> 01:19:39,280
Speaker 4: have a strong bet on it. It's more I think

1574
01:19:39,280 --> 01:19:42,040
Speaker 4: one of those games the public and is going to

1575
01:19:42,120 --> 01:19:45,559
Speaker 4: love to bet, but I don't love this Cleveland six

1576
01:19:45,600 --> 01:19:49,559
Speaker 4: and a half, the totals fifty four. I worry about

1577
01:19:49,560 --> 01:19:52,120
Speaker 4: Cleveland because it's Andy Reid. You know, in Week one

1578
01:19:52,120 --> 01:19:54,040
Speaker 4: he's six and two against the spread, he's always great

1579
01:19:54,040 --> 01:19:57,240
Speaker 4: with time to prepare. Cleveland, wait one in fifteen straight

1580
01:19:57,280 --> 01:20:00,920
Speaker 4: up in the West, sixteen, week one. They're never good

1581
01:20:00,960 --> 01:20:04,719
Speaker 4: coming out the gate. But also, like taking case worries

1582
01:20:04,760 --> 01:20:07,200
Speaker 4: me because six and a half, that seems like the

1583
01:20:07,240 --> 01:20:09,800
Speaker 4: Harrison Bucker. He's the he's the butt kicker on field

1584
01:20:09,800 --> 01:20:11,880
Speaker 4: goal is he's just butt on extra points, like he

1585
01:20:11,920 --> 01:20:14,120
Speaker 4: can't hit one of those. So it's like this is

1586
01:20:14,200 --> 01:20:16,559
Speaker 4: just this is another pass for me. But you do

1587
01:20:16,560 --> 01:20:18,080
Speaker 4: you have any thoughts on Cleveland? K C?

1588
01:20:18,920 --> 01:20:21,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, yeah, Cleveland has one week one in forever.

1589
01:20:21,720 --> 01:20:23,040
Speaker 3: But I mean they had some of the worst teams

1590
01:20:23,040 --> 01:20:24,920
Speaker 3: the NFL for like fifteen years. They're one twenty and

1591
01:20:24,960 --> 01:20:28,240
Speaker 3: one in season openers since they came back as a

1592
01:20:28,320 --> 01:20:31,519
Speaker 3: franchiser in nineteen ninety nine, one twenty and one. I

1593
01:20:31,520 --> 01:20:34,719
Speaker 3: think the last one was like five against the Steelers,

1594
01:20:34,720 --> 01:20:36,320
Speaker 3: just I mean it was bad.

1595
01:20:37,560 --> 01:20:37,760
Speaker 4: Matter.

1596
01:20:37,880 --> 01:20:40,040
Speaker 3: Maybe against the Ravens actually in two thousand and five.

1597
01:20:40,800 --> 01:20:42,519
Speaker 3: These two teams, by the way, they last met the

1598
01:20:42,760 --> 01:20:46,439
Speaker 3: opener in two thousand and two, and the Browns won

1599
01:20:46,760 --> 01:20:50,880
Speaker 3: the game and they sacked Trent Green, but Dwayne run

1600
01:20:50,920 --> 01:20:54,720
Speaker 3: through his helmet, so they threw a flag for an

1601
01:20:54,760 --> 01:20:58,200
Speaker 3: unsportsman like penalty, so they put the game couldn't end.

1602
01:20:58,200 --> 01:21:00,759
Speaker 3: It was in Cleveland. They gave the Chiefs fifteen yards

1603
01:21:00,800 --> 01:21:02,679
Speaker 3: and then Morten Anderson had a kick to win forty

1604
01:21:02,680 --> 01:21:05,519
Speaker 3: to thirty eight. So that's how bad the Brown's luck

1605
01:21:05,520 --> 01:21:10,960
Speaker 3: has been in Week one. Another maybe meaningless trun super

1606
01:21:10,960 --> 01:21:15,360
Speaker 3: Bowl losers Forbes Fords seventeen against the spread since two thousand.

1607
01:21:15,439 --> 01:21:16,639
Speaker 3: What does that mean? I don't think it does any

1608
01:21:16,680 --> 01:21:18,879
Speaker 3: predictive power, but it's an interesting nugget.

1609
01:21:19,360 --> 01:21:22,200
Speaker 4: Last year, didn't they didn't San Francisco lose straight up

1610
01:21:22,240 --> 01:21:24,720
Speaker 4: to Arizona last year or something like that in League One?

1611
01:21:25,120 --> 01:21:25,360
Speaker 3: Yeah?

1612
01:21:25,600 --> 01:21:28,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, and they were a big, big favorite, but

1613
01:21:28,640 --> 01:21:29,840
Speaker 4: they were like seven, so yeah.

1614
01:21:29,720 --> 01:21:30,160
Speaker 3: Pretty big.

1615
01:21:30,240 --> 01:21:30,479
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1616
01:21:32,840 --> 01:21:34,519
Speaker 3: Last year these two teams met in the playoffs. The

1617
01:21:34,560 --> 01:21:37,160
Speaker 3: Chiefs were of eight point favorites at home. I think

1618
01:21:37,160 --> 01:21:39,000
Speaker 3: it opened to ten, came down to eight. The Chiefs

1619
01:21:39,080 --> 01:21:41,040
Speaker 3: led nineteen to three at the half. They scored on

1620
01:21:41,120 --> 01:21:44,280
Speaker 3: every first all for four first half possessions, although it's

1621
01:21:44,280 --> 01:21:46,840
Speaker 3: worth noting the Browns had a fumble touchback, so it

1622
01:21:46,920 --> 01:21:50,960
Speaker 3: really could have been you know, nineteen to ten at

1623
01:21:50,960 --> 01:21:52,639
Speaker 3: the half. Then Ma Homes got hurt and the whole

1624
01:21:52,680 --> 01:21:57,000
Speaker 3: game flipped, you know, so they're basically would have combined

1625
01:21:57,000 --> 01:21:58,720
Speaker 3: for thirty points in the first half. This is a

1626
01:21:58,720 --> 01:22:01,200
Speaker 3: brand new look for the Browns d. They could have

1627
01:22:01,640 --> 01:22:03,800
Speaker 3: up to seven new starters in the defense, including rookies,

1628
01:22:03,840 --> 01:22:06,519
Speaker 3: and then all the free agency free agents they signed

1629
01:22:06,520 --> 01:22:09,800
Speaker 3: in the secondary and defensive line. So we'll see how

1630
01:22:09,840 --> 01:22:14,280
Speaker 3: that you know, presumably improved Browns defense looks. How long

1631
01:22:14,280 --> 01:22:16,040
Speaker 3: it takes them to jail. I think eventually it'll be

1632
01:22:16,040 --> 01:22:17,640
Speaker 3: a lot better than it was last year. On the

1633
01:22:17,720 --> 01:22:19,640
Speaker 3: chief side, they have a brand new offensive line and

1634
01:22:19,640 --> 01:22:21,960
Speaker 3: they're gonna do you know, they're changing run schemes. I

1635
01:22:22,000 --> 01:22:24,040
Speaker 3: think it's going to be for the better. But we'll see,

1636
01:22:24,400 --> 01:22:25,960
Speaker 3: you know, a bunch of rookies on the offense on

1637
01:22:26,080 --> 01:22:27,880
Speaker 3: how long it takes for that offensive line to jael.

1638
01:22:29,560 --> 01:22:32,080
Speaker 3: But you know, the brown should have success running the ball.

1639
01:22:32,960 --> 01:22:36,760
Speaker 3: They add Beckham back to the offense at an explosivelopment

1640
01:22:36,800 --> 01:22:40,040
Speaker 3: they were really lacking last year. The Chiefs defense is bad.

1641
01:22:40,400 --> 01:22:43,240
Speaker 3: We know that. Can the Browns stay ahead in this

1642
01:22:43,320 --> 01:22:45,120
Speaker 3: game so they can keep running the ball and setting

1643
01:22:45,160 --> 01:22:47,600
Speaker 3: up the path where they don't have to, you know,

1644
01:22:47,720 --> 01:22:49,519
Speaker 3: try and come back and that plays right into the

1645
01:22:49,560 --> 01:22:52,720
Speaker 3: chief's hands. On defense, that'll be a big thing. But

1646
01:22:52,840 --> 01:22:56,360
Speaker 3: I think both offenses should have success. I think the

1647
01:22:56,479 --> 01:22:59,240
Speaker 3: look here is it's either over or nothing. That I'm

1648
01:22:59,360 --> 01:23:01,400
Speaker 3: it's the I mean it's fifty four and a half.

1649
01:23:01,439 --> 01:23:04,160
Speaker 3: Now I think I make it fifty four. I just

1650
01:23:04,200 --> 01:23:06,559
Speaker 3: see a lot of advantages for both offenses, but not

1651
01:23:06,600 --> 01:23:08,559
Speaker 3: a play for me. I might hop and for live

1652
01:23:08,640 --> 01:23:11,240
Speaker 3: over if it starts slow, I make the line like

1653
01:23:11,560 --> 01:23:15,559
Speaker 3: six and change. So not much here for me.

1654
01:23:16,120 --> 01:23:18,519
Speaker 4: And by the way, that game last year, that playoff game,

1655
01:23:18,640 --> 01:23:22,080
Speaker 4: one of my favorite plays of all time. That that

1656
01:23:22,160 --> 01:23:25,160
Speaker 4: fourth down to win the game, Like I think it

1657
01:23:25,200 --> 01:23:27,160
Speaker 4: was out Michaels like, oh, they're not going to run

1658
01:23:27,200 --> 01:23:30,280
Speaker 4: a play here. And not only do they run a play,

1659
01:23:30,560 --> 01:23:32,760
Speaker 4: but they throw the ball like fourth and inches with

1660
01:23:32,840 --> 01:23:38,759
Speaker 4: Chad Henny balls. That was amazing. Andy Reid really smart.

1661
01:23:38,840 --> 01:23:39,800
Speaker 4: Send everybody out there.

1662
01:23:39,800 --> 01:23:42,080
Speaker 1: You got cuts right, you're trying to draw them off sides.

1663
01:23:42,120 --> 01:23:44,240
Speaker 4: Take a time out, take it down.

1664
01:23:44,280 --> 01:23:46,120
Speaker 3: Let the clock click, try and draw.

1665
01:23:46,000 --> 01:23:46,679
Speaker 2: Them off sides.

1666
01:23:46,880 --> 01:23:47,559
Speaker 1: The small play.

1667
01:23:47,800 --> 01:23:50,360
Speaker 4: Just look at the body language.

1668
01:23:50,479 --> 01:23:57,360
Speaker 3: Oh there is a play any roll throws that SHAC

1669
01:23:57,640 --> 01:24:09,360
Speaker 3: Championship game. There's no way these shocks everybody.

1670
01:24:10,000 --> 01:24:13,600
Speaker 4: I mean, that is impossible. I'm through it with the

1671
01:24:13,640 --> 01:24:16,720
Speaker 4: backup quarterback. I mean, we gotta be mad for that.

1672
01:24:17,320 --> 01:24:19,479
Speaker 4: Great game to watch. Not my favorite to bet.

1673
01:24:19,960 --> 01:24:20,120
Speaker 3: Uh.

1674
01:24:20,160 --> 01:24:22,760
Speaker 4: We'll finish it up with the Survivor Pool pick of

1675
01:24:22,760 --> 01:24:23,320
Speaker 4: the week.

1676
01:24:23,680 --> 01:24:30,720
Speaker 1: One pick, one chance to advance Survivor.

1677
01:24:32,240 --> 01:24:35,200
Speaker 4: I'm going to San Fran. Uh. Don't don't see Detroit

1678
01:24:35,240 --> 01:24:38,400
Speaker 4: giving him much. Rams are a close second, but trying

1679
01:24:38,439 --> 01:24:40,240
Speaker 4: to get some of these NFC West teams out of

1680
01:24:40,280 --> 01:24:42,559
Speaker 4: the way because you know they're gonna just be playing

1681
01:24:42,560 --> 01:24:44,320
Speaker 4: each other a bunch and it's gonna be it's gonna

1682
01:24:44,360 --> 01:24:46,479
Speaker 4: be a gauntlet of a division. So I'll take San

1683
01:24:46,560 --> 01:24:47,400
Speaker 4: Fran against Detroit.

1684
01:24:48,040 --> 01:24:49,960
Speaker 3: Yeah. I have a Survivor analysis piece out there. Go

1685
01:24:50,120 --> 01:24:52,040
Speaker 3: check it out next snork dot com. I'm rolling with the.

1686
01:24:52,080 --> 01:24:54,679
Speaker 4: Rams, So Sam Fran the Rams for our Survivor picks.

1687
01:24:55,000 --> 01:24:56,920
Speaker 4: As a reminder, you guys can follow all of our

1688
01:24:56,960 --> 01:25:00,719
Speaker 4: picks for the Sunday six pack in the Winning Action

1689
01:25:00,800 --> 01:25:04,679
Speaker 4: Network app. Just search Sunday six Pack in the Action

1690
01:25:04,840 --> 01:25:08,160
Speaker 4: Apps Follow feature and you can find all the bets

1691
01:25:08,479 --> 01:25:10,880
Speaker 4: that we made on the podcast for the six pack here.

1692
01:25:10,920 --> 01:25:14,200
Speaker 4: You can find Stucky on Twitter at Stucky Too. You

1693
01:25:14,200 --> 01:25:17,639
Speaker 4: can find me at Chris Raybon. You can file Stucky's

1694
01:25:17,640 --> 01:25:19,680
Speaker 4: bets in the action app at Stucky Too. You can

1695
01:25:19,720 --> 01:25:22,479
Speaker 4: follow my bets in the action app at Chris Raybond.

1696
01:25:22,600 --> 01:25:26,240
Speaker 4: So very simple, same Twitter handle, same action handle. Be

1697
01:25:26,280 --> 01:25:29,320
Speaker 4: sure to check out the Fantasy Flex podcast. You know feed.

1698
01:25:29,400 --> 01:25:31,719
Speaker 4: We have a new feed, five episodes a week. There

1699
01:25:32,439 --> 01:25:34,160
Speaker 4: so a lot of good stuff here. We'll do the

1700
01:25:34,200 --> 01:25:38,320
Speaker 4: live show. Convinced me Sunday's at eight Pacific eleven Eastern

1701
01:25:38,680 --> 01:25:41,040
Speaker 4: should be a good NFL season for Stuck and I.

1702
01:25:41,320 --> 01:25:47,920
Speaker 4: Until next week, Let's get this money, Let's go