WEBVTT - Full Episode - From Teflon To Velcro: Why The Epstein Files Could Trigger Trump’s Lame Duck Presidency + The Democrats’ Roadmap To Becoming A Majority Party Again 0:00:00.040 --> 0:00:02.640 Do you hate hangovers, We'll say goodbye to hangovers. Out 0:00:02.640 --> 0:00:05.160 of Office gives you the social buzz without the next 0:00:05.240 --> 0:00:07.560 day regret. Their best selling out of Office gummies were 0:00:07.560 --> 0:00:10.479 designed to provide a mild, relaxing buzz, boost your mood, 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:14.120 and enhance creativity and relaxation. With five different strengths, you 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:16.360 can tailor the dose to fit your vibe, from a 0:00:16.440 --> 0:00:20.520 gentle one point five milligram micro dose to their newest 0:00:20.640 --> 0:00:24.599 fifteen milligram gummy for a more elevated experience. 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We're 0:01:42.080 --> 0:01:45.279 going to dive into that fairly deep here in a minute, 0:01:45.280 --> 0:01:49.120 I'll give you We're going to debate Teflon versus Velcro, 0:01:49.360 --> 0:01:53.320 and we'll get there in a few minutes. My guest 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:57.480 for today is Adam Gentlsen. He is a long time 0:01:58.480 --> 0:02:03.840 Senate a to the late Senate Majority Leader Senate Democratic 0:02:03.880 --> 0:02:08.000 Leader Harry Reid. He started a new I guess he 0:02:08.080 --> 0:02:12.800 calls it an action tank, but basically it's a think 0:02:12.840 --> 0:02:16.280 tank of sorts that is called the search Light Institute, 0:02:16.440 --> 0:02:19.360 named after the town that Harry Reid was born and 0:02:19.400 --> 0:02:23.560 he came from search Light, Nevada. And the point is how, basically, 0:02:23.600 --> 0:02:27.560 how to broaden the tent, How to get Democrats to 0:02:27.720 --> 0:02:32.880 broaden to not be a stereotype of what perhaps they 0:02:32.960 --> 0:02:37.160 are perceived to be as a brand over the last decade, 0:02:37.240 --> 0:02:40.680 certainly in the post Obama era, how did they broaden out? 0:02:40.760 --> 0:02:43.840 And we discuss how there was wasn't that long ago 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:48.040 that Democrats could elect senators, had senators from thirty six 0:02:48.080 --> 0:02:51.560 different states at one point when they got sixty senators 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:55.160 in two thousand and nine. Right, that wasn't in the 0:02:55.280 --> 0:02:57.720 twentieth century or the nineteenth century. That was in the 0:02:57.760 --> 0:03:02.360 twenty first century. So it's an interesting conversation. We delve 0:03:02.400 --> 0:03:05.280 into the whole thing of the shutdown debate. You know, 0:03:05.520 --> 0:03:08.400 how do you confront Trump? Should they have cave, not cave? 0:03:08.520 --> 0:03:11.120 All of those things? I think you're going to enjoy 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:15.440 that conversation, even if you no matter the side that 0:03:15.520 --> 0:03:18.880 you might be on on that one. Then of course 0:03:18.960 --> 0:03:20.760 after I'll do a little few more q and as, 0:03:20.760 --> 0:03:24.919 and I'll have my big college football preview going into 0:03:24.960 --> 0:03:27.680 the weekend. But I want to start, obviously with this 0:03:27.800 --> 0:03:33.440 question and look the world of independent media, the world 0:03:33.440 --> 0:03:36.520 of content creators. Right, we are in an Epstein frenzy, 0:03:37.200 --> 0:03:39.400 and it's a deserved sort of feeding frenzy of the 0:03:39.400 --> 0:03:41.920 moment because there's new material out there, right, There's new emails, 0:03:41.920 --> 0:03:45.800 there's new shock emails, and the swearing in of Adelita Garalva, 0:03:46.000 --> 0:03:48.960 the Arizona congresswoman who's been waiting to be sworn in 0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:53.040 for over a month now because of the Speaker Johnson's 0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:56.680 bizarre decision to keep the House out. I really think 0:03:56.720 --> 0:03:58.880 he really did a disservice to his own party and 0:03:58.920 --> 0:04:01.760 his own members here, because it's pretty indefensible, you know, 0:04:01.800 --> 0:04:04.160 the lack of the lack of action, the lack of 0:04:04.480 --> 0:04:08.120 anything from the House Republicans, and they're running. They're on 0:04:08.160 --> 0:04:10.640 the ballot before anybody else, is right, it's the House 0:04:10.720 --> 0:04:13.160 Republicans are all on the ballot come in November twenty 0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:15.360 twenty six. And I think Mike Johnson has put his 0:04:15.480 --> 0:04:20.920 own members in a terrible situation. Obviously, he made a 0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:23.719 it feels like he made a decision that the White 0:04:23.760 --> 0:04:25.919 House has him to do, not what was in the 0:04:25.920 --> 0:04:29.880 best interests of the House Republicans, and you know these 0:04:29.920 --> 0:04:32.640 in some ways, this controversy over the Epstein file is 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:36.560 the same thing. Mike Johnson is consistently doing what's in 0:04:36.600 --> 0:04:38.840 the best interest of the White House, which is a 0:04:38.839 --> 0:04:41.760 branch of government. He does not lead, nor is he 0:04:41.800 --> 0:04:44.359 a member of. He is actually the leader of the 0:04:44.400 --> 0:04:47.040 legislative branch. The Speaker of the House is essentially the 0:04:47.040 --> 0:04:49.560 de facto leader of that branch of government. The same 0:04:49.560 --> 0:04:52.080 way John Roberts as the Chief Justice, is essentially the 0:04:52.080 --> 0:04:56.560 current leader of the judiciary branch, and he is essentially 0:04:59.320 --> 0:05:03.160 outsource decision making on what Congress should do to the 0:05:03.160 --> 0:05:07.800 White House. You get it. Politically, I understand why they 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:09.240 feel like they have to. And we live in this 0:05:09.320 --> 0:05:13.040 jerrymandered world where primary voters matter more than the rest 0:05:13.040 --> 0:05:16.279 of us. That of course, you know, this gets into 0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:18.279 the larger conversation, which, by the way, I get into 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:21.000 with Adam Jentlesen right the filibuster. He wrote a whole 0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:24.760 book about the filibuster and what was the founder's intent? 0:05:25.200 --> 0:05:28.400 And you know, how should this all work? And when 0:05:28.440 --> 0:05:30.960 do you have supermajorities and when don't you et cetera. 0:05:32.160 --> 0:05:34.320 But I will tell you, I think what Mike Johnson 0:05:34.360 --> 0:05:37.479 has done with House Republicans is so damaging, and I 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:41.640 do not think they fully appreciate how much damage he's 0:05:42.000 --> 0:05:46.719 His decisions here, again, all were only to the benefit 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:49.359 of one person, Donald Trump. None of it to the 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:51.080 benefit of anybody that's actually going to be on the 0:05:51.080 --> 0:05:54.200 ballot in twenty twenty six, namely every single one of 0:05:54.200 --> 0:06:00.560 those House Republicans that he is charged with leading. The 0:06:00.600 --> 0:06:02.839 discharge position is here. It's interesting that the White House 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:05.320 apparently was working Lauren Bobert seeing if they could talk 0:06:05.320 --> 0:06:08.840 her out of being a signer, trying to do whatever 0:06:08.880 --> 0:06:12.480 they can to stop this. And I think that, you know, 0:06:12.560 --> 0:06:16.880 the question is will this You know, this is a 0:06:16.920 --> 0:06:21.400 guy you know axis Hollywood didn't end him. January sixth 0:06:21.480 --> 0:06:24.360 didn't end him. I mean, look at the things he 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:28.680 has done since coming into office. I mean, I'm going 0:06:28.760 --> 0:06:31.039 to give you a quick rundown. These are just the 0:06:31.120 --> 0:06:36.160 people he pardoned on January sixth that have committed crimes 0:06:36.360 --> 0:06:39.000 since right and none of this has hit him yet. 0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:42.880 Edward Kelly pardon for January sixth, later convicted to conspiring 0:06:42.880 --> 0:06:46.520 to murder FBI agents. Daniel Charles Ball was pardoned in 0:06:46.560 --> 0:06:50.040 the January sixth pardons, and he was rearrested on federal 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:54.000 gun charges. Kyle Colton was pardoned with his January sixth participation, 0:06:54.080 --> 0:06:58.719 later had to be indicted for receiving child pornography. Christopher 0:06:58.760 --> 0:07:01.880 moynihan was pardoned for the January sixth pardons and in 0:07:01.880 --> 0:07:04.080 October twenty twenty five with charge of threatening to kill 0:07:04.120 --> 0:07:07.239 the House Democratic leader Aqim Jeffreys. And then there's Robert 0:07:07.279 --> 0:07:10.960 Packer pardon another January sixth partony in September of twenty 0:07:11.000 --> 0:07:13.720 twenty five, charged in connection with a dog attack that 0:07:13.800 --> 0:07:18.160 left four people injured. So people he's pardoned have gone 0:07:18.160 --> 0:07:21.880 on to commit more crimes and have become menaces to society. 0:07:22.360 --> 0:07:25.760 Never mind the other pardons he's done of some really 0:07:25.880 --> 0:07:28.640 questionable figures, like the one where it looks like he 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:31.720 sold the pardon with Sheng Peng Zao, the finance founder. 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:35.960 That guy's in business with his sons and he magically 0:07:36.000 --> 0:07:38.600 gets a pardon. I wonder how that worked. This guy 0:07:39.040 --> 0:07:44.240 apparently had billions and illicit transactions, and it was Trump's 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:48.000 Department of Justice the first term that actually prosecuted him, 0:07:48.440 --> 0:07:54.440 But we digress. George Santos, the serial liar who defrauded voters, 0:07:54.520 --> 0:07:59.400 defrauded Congress, did all sorts of things. He gets pardon 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:03.640 ed Martin who handles his pardons. He gets pardoned. He 0:08:03.680 --> 0:08:08.160 got convicted of financial crimes, misusing nonprofit funds, and he 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:11.360 gets pardoned. And of course I think works for Trump. 0:08:11.640 --> 0:08:16.560 Denesh Desuza, who is traffics and made up Propatcanada with 0:08:16.640 --> 0:08:20.080 his Mules movie and all this stuff, well, he was 0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:24.280 convicted of illegal of the straw donor scheme. He received clemency. 0:08:25.280 --> 0:08:31.040 A couple of other crypto fraud financiers that he's pardoned 0:08:31.080 --> 0:08:35.680 ever since. So he's got and I say this, none 0:08:35.679 --> 0:08:38.360 of this stuff has mattered, right, I throw all that 0:08:38.400 --> 0:08:40.760 out there. All of this happened this year. He's you know, 0:08:40.920 --> 0:08:45.280 did the bailout of Argentina instead of bailing out US 0:08:45.320 --> 0:08:49.160 beef producers. None of this has hit him, stuck to 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:53.600 him yet, So why should the Epstein file stick to him. Well, 0:08:53.600 --> 0:08:56.120 there's another way to look at this is that there 0:08:56.120 --> 0:08:59.000 are times in any presidency where you have Teflon as 0:08:59.000 --> 0:09:01.920 a president, and there are times in every presidency where 0:09:01.920 --> 0:09:05.480 it feels like you're dressed in velcrow. There was you know, 0:09:05.640 --> 0:09:10.280 Richard Nixon had teflon in his first term. By the 0:09:10.320 --> 0:09:12.920 second term, it was all velcrow, and everything that was 0:09:12.920 --> 0:09:16.640 connected to Watergate or loosely connected to Watergate or any 0:09:16.640 --> 0:09:19.960 sort of presidential abuse of power seemed to stick to 0:09:20.040 --> 0:09:22.720 him and stick to him. But why did he go 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:28.920 from a teflon guy to a velcrow guy? A simple reason? 0:09:28.960 --> 0:09:36.240 The economy sucked. Why did Bill Clinton not get essentially 0:09:36.280 --> 0:09:40.360 punished by the political system or by voters when it 0:09:40.400 --> 0:09:44.960 came to Monica Lewinsky the economy was great. Why did 0:09:44.960 --> 0:09:47.840 the stuff in Trump's first term not stick to him? 0:09:48.440 --> 0:09:51.800 There was a perception that he oversaw a successful economy 0:09:52.080 --> 0:09:58.880 pre coronavirus. Why is this possible that this time he's 0:09:59.200 --> 0:10:01.920 in this is why could this time be different? Because 0:10:02.360 --> 0:10:05.760 too many people in this country think this economy sucks. Because, 0:10:05.800 --> 0:10:09.800 as we've discussed, if you have money, you're doing okay. 0:10:09.880 --> 0:10:14.520 If you don't have money, you're struggling. You're barely out 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:17.560 of you're barely above water. You're seeing your electric bill 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:20.000 go up, You're seeing the grocery bills go up, You're 0:10:20.040 --> 0:10:23.840 seeing everything in your life go up. In price. Trust me, 0:10:24.080 --> 0:10:27.199 even if you have some savings, you're seeing everything go up, right, 0:10:27.240 --> 0:10:30.600 The cost of everything has gone up and feels like 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:34.120 it's going up substantially, particularly when you look at electricity. 0:10:34.920 --> 0:10:39.680 So you know, Epstein's been out there as an issue 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:45.120 for Trump arguably for years. The question is when does 0:10:45.120 --> 0:10:48.400 it does a you know, why would it matter this 0:10:48.520 --> 0:10:51.800 time more than before. You can say, well, there's more 0:10:51.920 --> 0:10:54.920 evidence that connects them that he knew something. I definitely 0:10:54.960 --> 0:10:57.199 think there's always going to be. But you could make 0:10:57.240 --> 0:11:01.120 the argument you kind of new, right, like, there's this 0:11:01.160 --> 0:11:04.720 great quote from JD. Vance that actually which was you know, 0:11:04.720 --> 0:11:08.360 there's always a tweet, right, This is JD Vance Sarkha 0:11:08.440 --> 0:11:10.800 two thousand and one, So you'll be forgiven. I know 0:11:10.840 --> 0:11:13.200 that way you have to go way back in his past, 0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:22.320 right some four whole years ago. But the quote, and 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:24.920 I just want to get it directly here. I had 0:11:24.960 --> 0:11:28.520 it up. Remember this is him. He was a tweet 0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:30.760 he made in twenty twenty one. Remember when we learned 0:11:30.760 --> 0:11:33.400 that our wealthiest and most powerful people were connected to 0:11:33.440 --> 0:11:36.840 a guy who ran a literal child sex trafficking ring, 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:40.640 and then that guy died mysteriously in jail and now 0:11:40.640 --> 0:11:44.079 we just don't talk about it. Of course, that was 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:46.920 when there was a democratic administration that he did tweet this, 0:11:47.280 --> 0:11:49.559 right number one, And that was back when the right 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:52.240 was convinced this was a cover up having to do 0:11:52.320 --> 0:11:56.000 with Bill Clinton. But of course Jeffrey Epstein's closest friend 0:11:56.040 --> 0:12:01.760 was not Bill Clinton. It was Donald Trump. And with 0:12:01.880 --> 0:12:04.640 a the point I'm making here is do I think 0:12:04.679 --> 0:12:09.320 Trump could Jedi mind trick his way out of this? Well, 0:12:09.320 --> 0:12:11.920 he has for a long time. And why has he Well, 0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:14.720 there's been other things. There's been And again I go 0:12:14.760 --> 0:12:16.959 back to the first term, even when Jeffrey Epstein was 0:12:17.000 --> 0:12:21.480 in custody, even when this whole thing consumed a cabinet 0:12:21.520 --> 0:12:25.480 secretary of his who had to essentially drop because of 0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:29.720 his lenient sentencing that he oversaw down in South Florida, 0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:34.319 it was because the perception, well, yeah, we knew all this, 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:36.560 this was all baked in. We kind of knew Trump 0:12:36.679 --> 0:12:40.600 was this. And this is why in some ways people 0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:43.520 already know. Remember when we learned that our wealthiest and 0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:46.000 most powerful people were connected to a guy hard stop. 0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:50.880 So that's problem number one for Trump is that Trump 0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:53.840 has made it clear he's been part of the establishment, 0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:56.480 part of the elite. He knows everybody. He knows all 0:12:56.520 --> 0:13:00.480 these guys, he's been there. He himself has quotes of him. 0:13:00.760 --> 0:13:04.840 Oh yeah, Jeffrey likes him young and he knows. There's 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:06.800 that other quote that's floating around where he said, man, 0:13:06.800 --> 0:13:08.960 it was the nineties, a lot of crazy stuff was happening. 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:11.679 I don't remember, which is always code for I don't 0:13:11.679 --> 0:13:13.440 want to talk about what I might know, or what 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:15.480 I might have seen, or what I might have participated in. 0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:18.880 The Point is, it isn't going to be hard for 0:13:18.920 --> 0:13:21.760 people to believe that he had a relationship with Epstein, 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:26.840 that he was close with him. The difference is they're 0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:30.240 pissed off about he's not doing what he promised to 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:33.560 do as president, which is bring down the costs. They're 0:13:33.600 --> 0:13:38.000 doing anything, But if anything, his policies have hurt you, right, 0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:40.320 it is the price of coffee is up, not down. 0:13:40.720 --> 0:13:42.719 Notice the Treasury Secretary says, we're going to lower the 0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:44.320 price of coffee and we're going to lower the price 0:13:44.320 --> 0:13:49.560 of fruit. Translation, they realize these tariffs actually impacted everyday people. 0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:54.520 And when you teariff Brazil over a political obsession of yours, 0:13:56.000 --> 0:14:00.520 all you do is attack all Americans in the book 0:14:00.559 --> 0:14:08.640 because of the price of coffee. So I'm always has 0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:11.760 it in to assume, ah, this is it. But look, 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:15.960 every presidency comes to an end and their influence comes 0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:19.960 to an end. And the way we mark the end 0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:22.160 of a presidency as we say, oh, he's becoming a 0:14:22.240 --> 0:14:25.360 lame duck, and you're starting to hear the words lame duck. 0:14:26.640 --> 0:14:29.000 I think when you measure when does a president become 0:14:29.120 --> 0:14:31.280 every president becomes a lame duck. The question is win 0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:34.360 does it begin. Well, trying to figure out when a 0:14:34.400 --> 0:14:37.320 presidency is an official lame duck status is like trying 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:40.880 to guess when we're in recession. Right. There's a great 0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:45.280 line about economists with recessions. They can always tell you 0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:48.960 when it started. After the recession has started, there's not 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:51.040 a single economist that can tell you when it's going 0:14:51.120 --> 0:14:51.520 to begin. 0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:52.280 Right. 0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:54.040 They never tell you when it's going to be, and 0:14:54.080 --> 0:14:57.200 they we always are, We're always informed of when it began. 0:14:58.280 --> 0:15:00.960 I actually think there's the same thing with when it 0:15:01.000 --> 0:15:07.320 comes to a lame duck presidency, is this begun? Are 0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:09.280 we in the midst of it? Are we at the 0:15:09.280 --> 0:15:11.240 beginning of it? We're not going to know for sure, 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:14.480 I think for about six months or a year. But 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:18.120 I'll tell you this if we fast forward a year 0:15:18.120 --> 0:15:20.720 and the Democrats sweep the House in the Senate, which 0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:23.040 to me, you know, and you're going to hear this 0:15:23.080 --> 0:15:25.040 actually in the Adam Jenlsen interview, and I think he 0:15:25.600 --> 0:15:28.760 sets this bar correctly, which is, if Democrats don't win 0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:30.400 the Senate, they don't win the midterms. 0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:31.000 Right. 0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:36.120 Winning the House is simply participating, right, that's table stakes. 0:15:36.640 --> 0:15:39.000 Winning the Senate means you won an argument, you won 0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:41.960 the campaign because you convince people who normally aren't on 0:15:42.000 --> 0:15:46.120 your side to be on your side. That's winning, right. 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:50.560 Winning the House is simply participating. Winning the House is 0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:53.480 a participation trophy. Winning the Senate is winning the midterms. 0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:56.440 So a year from now, if we're in a situation 0:15:56.480 --> 0:15:58.840 where we say the Democrats swept the House in the Senate, 0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:02.480 we will then go back and say Donald Trump's lame 0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:07.280 duck presidency hit lame ducks status election Day twenty twenty five, 0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:11.200 and arguably it probably happened a bit sooner. We might 0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:15.920 say that essentially the symbolic beginning of his lame duckness 0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:18.960 was the destruction of the East Wing when he became 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:25.680 so consumed with his personal legacy and he stopped worrying 0:16:25.720 --> 0:16:30.200 about the American voter. Right. Look, Donald Trump's history is 0:16:30.920 --> 0:16:33.440 he wants to get everything he can out of you 0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:37.560 that benefits him. And once he drains, once you've given 0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:41.120 him everything he can get out of you, he moves on. Right, 0:16:41.280 --> 0:16:43.720 My substeck this week is about how I think I 0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:47.360 think he has treated the Republican Party the way he 0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:52.360 treated many of the casinos that he operated or businesses 0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:55.720 that he's run, which is he essentially leveraged it for 0:16:55.760 --> 0:16:59.640 his benefit, left this entity with a huge debt. In 0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:02.680 this case, the debt he has left him as moral 0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:08.440 and ethical bankruptcy. And then he's gonna walk away. Meanwhile, 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:10.359 the Republican Party is going to be the pardon of 0:17:12.119 --> 0:17:14.520 shitty pardons, is going to be the party of that 0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:16.680 doesn't care about the rule of law unless it applies 0:17:16.720 --> 0:17:19.560 only to the other side, like he is gonna that 0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:23.400 they're part of that. The legacy is somehow the Republican 0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:26.399 Party is the party of crypto scammers. Like that's not 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:29.080 a good legacy. And then you throw in Epstein here, 0:17:29.440 --> 0:17:35.640 and he's the party of protecting the Pedophiles. 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So now Donald Trump's worried about 0:19:21.119 --> 0:19:24.239 Donald Trump, and because of that, does it appears to 0:19:24.240 --> 0:19:26.840 not even be worried about the voter anymore. And this 0:19:26.960 --> 0:19:30.439 is where he goes from having a teflon suit and 0:19:30.480 --> 0:19:34.000 he was teflon Don and he's been teflon Don. Right. 0:19:34.440 --> 0:19:39.880 You know, he can attack John McCain and not lose somebody. 0:19:39.960 --> 0:19:43.040 He could shoot somebody apparently on Fifth Avenue and not 0:19:43.080 --> 0:19:46.400 lose a supporter. But if this economy sucks, and if 0:19:46.400 --> 0:19:49.320 the grocery bills, he can't Jedi mind trick away a 0:19:49.359 --> 0:19:54.120 grocery bill. And then suddenly when that happens, and they think, well, 0:19:54.160 --> 0:19:58.119 my life sucks, and this guy is worried more about 0:19:58.400 --> 0:20:00.960 the East wing of the White House. Oh yeah, and 0:20:01.000 --> 0:20:05.560 this guy protected a pedophile for decades, and this guy's 0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:12.000 going to commute or the sentence of said pedophiles partner 0:20:12.000 --> 0:20:16.920 in crime, literal partner in crime, and Gallaine Maxwell, that's 0:20:17.119 --> 0:20:21.560 how this that's how this story matters, right, And now 0:20:21.600 --> 0:20:25.080 you've got this orchestration of a series of votes where 0:20:25.800 --> 0:20:27.600 you know Epstein is one of these few stories. We 0:20:27.640 --> 0:20:33.479 live in this siloed information world where literally, you know, 0:20:33.720 --> 0:20:36.240 I could say, you know, I mean, I'm gonna have 0:20:36.240 --> 0:20:38.919 an interview with Clay Travis in a couple of weeks. 0:20:40.119 --> 0:20:41.919 I don't think my mother knows who Clay Travis is. 0:20:42.240 --> 0:20:44.439 And I say this with no, you know, why should 0:20:44.480 --> 0:20:47.480 she you know he is? He is in a different 0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:52.639 media ecosystem than my mother travels in. She doesn't, you know, 0:20:52.720 --> 0:20:54.840 she watches a lot of college football, but it happens 0:20:55.000 --> 0:20:59.040 she doesn't watch anything on Fox because Miami doesn't ever 0:20:59.160 --> 0:21:01.879 play on Fox. They usually play on the ESPN or ABC, 0:21:01.960 --> 0:21:04.640 so she might be aware of ESPN personalities, but she's 0:21:04.680 --> 0:21:08.200 not aware of any Fox Sports personalities, let alone aware 0:21:08.200 --> 0:21:11.480 of his radio show or any of those things. And 0:21:12.080 --> 0:21:17.280 Epstein's one of these stories that every every single silo 0:21:18.160 --> 0:21:21.520 has an Epstein corner. Right, Your MAGA silo has an 0:21:21.520 --> 0:21:25.800 Epstein corner, Your sort of never Trump silo has Epstein corners, 0:21:26.000 --> 0:21:28.800 your sort of center, your sort of mainstream media has 0:21:28.800 --> 0:21:32.200 an Epstein corner, Your progressive wing has an Epstein corner. Right, 0:21:32.200 --> 0:21:36.200 there is this collective interest in Epstein. And let's be honest, 0:21:36.200 --> 0:21:39.439 why there is. It's all you know, at first, the 0:21:39.560 --> 0:21:43.440 rights interest in Epstein was all about Bill Clinton, nothing else. 0:21:43.520 --> 0:21:46.720 It was always about Bill Clint. That's how the right 0:21:46.840 --> 0:21:50.439 got fascinated by this. They were hoping to paint and 0:21:50.480 --> 0:21:53.240 it was all these you know, democratics are all part 0:21:53.280 --> 0:21:58.159 of this weird pedophilia conspiracy that QAnon launched. All this 0:21:58.200 --> 0:22:01.560 it's all sort of wrapped up in that. And then 0:22:01.640 --> 0:22:04.560 Trump's names showed up in the Epstein files. Right then 0:22:04.600 --> 0:22:08.440 we realized. And then Trump became a cornerstone of MAGA 0:22:09.400 --> 0:22:12.600 and became sort of created somebody's created mega, right, certainly, 0:22:13.440 --> 0:22:15.680 it's always a question, you know, like anything. Trump doesn't 0:22:15.720 --> 0:22:17.280 create anything. He just sort of got in front of 0:22:17.280 --> 0:22:19.720 a parade that was that was starting to form, and 0:22:19.760 --> 0:22:24.800 then suddenly he became their leader and their unifier. But 0:22:24.880 --> 0:22:27.960 here we are, and now everybody else is interested in 0:22:28.000 --> 0:22:30.800 it because you're like, whoa, So Trump's involved in this 0:22:31.000 --> 0:22:33.320 and this side, you know, and it's just one of 0:22:33.359 --> 0:22:37.160 those stories that everybody's got a stake in. So this 0:22:37.200 --> 0:22:40.159 is going to be a story that constantly, just like 0:22:40.200 --> 0:22:43.400 the economy is right, the economy breaks through every because 0:22:43.440 --> 0:22:47.480 you can't sort of information silo your grocery bill. You know, 0:22:47.520 --> 0:22:49.720 there isn't a Fox News version of the grocery bill 0:22:49.760 --> 0:22:53.199 or an MSNBC version of the grocery bill. So you 0:22:53.240 --> 0:22:55.600 can't do that with the economy, and in this unique case, 0:22:55.640 --> 0:22:58.600 you can't do it with the Epstein story. And this 0:22:58.760 --> 0:23:02.400 is why this feels like a very lame that this 0:23:02.480 --> 0:23:05.160 is what lame duck. What happens to lame duck presidencies 0:23:05.240 --> 0:23:08.359 is that they can't stop feeding frenzies anymore. You know, 0:23:08.640 --> 0:23:10.119 this happened with George W. 0:23:10.240 --> 0:23:10.720 Bush. 0:23:10.800 --> 0:23:12.600 You know a lot of people will say the feeding frenzies, 0:23:12.760 --> 0:23:15.119 you know, sort of the lame duck period of the 0:23:16.720 --> 0:23:21.080 Bush presidency began with the twenty oh six midterms. I'd 0:23:21.119 --> 0:23:24.479 actually argue, or you could go backwards and say it 0:23:24.520 --> 0:23:27.760 began with the Terry Schivo thing, when they went full 0:23:27.800 --> 0:23:31.359 bore on that and the public revolted and they couldn't 0:23:31.440 --> 0:23:35.720 sort of, you know, their typical positions didn't work, their 0:23:35.760 --> 0:23:39.160 typical media spin didn't work. And then you realize, you know, 0:23:39.359 --> 0:23:42.320 his credibility was shot. It was already weakening due to 0:23:42.320 --> 0:23:46.280 our rock. Terry Schivo hits, then Katrina happens, and then 0:23:46.320 --> 0:23:49.200 the whole thing is over. But Katrina didn't start the 0:23:49.280 --> 0:23:51.959 lame duck period. The lame duck period actually began at 0:23:52.000 --> 0:23:55.040 the tail, at the at the beginning of five when 0:23:55.080 --> 0:24:00.520 he started messing around with the Shivo business, social security investments, 0:24:00.680 --> 0:24:05.480 et cetera. And so that's where I think this if 0:24:05.480 --> 0:24:09.600 we're if indeed we're able to in a year from now, 0:24:09.640 --> 0:24:12.280 really in it. We have the environment that we have 0:24:12.880 --> 0:24:15.320 and it does turn into a democratic suite, we will 0:24:15.359 --> 0:24:17.480 say this lame duck period began in the fall of 0:24:18.240 --> 0:24:19.880 In the fall of this year, just like with Joe 0:24:19.880 --> 0:24:22.639 Biden's presidency. It turned out the beginning of the end 0:24:22.640 --> 0:24:25.480 of his presidency happened really early in his presidency, right 0:24:25.720 --> 0:24:28.880 with the Afghanistan withdrawal and the inability to to sort 0:24:28.880 --> 0:24:32.320 of hold anybody accountable, fix it, explain it, and he 0:24:32.400 --> 0:24:35.639 never recovered from there. And while because he was a 0:24:35.640 --> 0:24:39.240 first term president, you'd never say lame duck, in hindsight, 0:24:39.400 --> 0:24:42.119 you know, that's when he lost. That's when he lost 0:24:42.160 --> 0:24:46.120 the plot, and it was and everything went downhill from there. 0:24:48.960 --> 0:24:51.840 You know. That's I think the situation we may be 0:24:52.000 --> 0:24:54.480 living him now, and the nightmare for the White House 0:24:54.480 --> 0:24:58.040 press shop is is, you know, Trump has not helped 0:24:58.040 --> 0:25:01.000 them at all. You know, I argue that he actually 0:25:01.080 --> 0:25:04.520 had a you know, Trump's problem is going soft on 0:25:04.560 --> 0:25:10.600 Maxwell because by going soft on Maxwell, but he is 0:25:10.760 --> 0:25:15.359 essentially confirmed the idea that Maxwell knows some stuff, that 0:25:15.440 --> 0:25:19.679 he's friendly with her, that he knows her, and it 0:25:19.840 --> 0:25:23.360 undermines the story that he had sort of lived with 0:25:23.440 --> 0:25:25.439 for a while when it came to Epstein that I 0:25:25.480 --> 0:25:30.280 that mostly worked with his supporters, which was, yeah, I 0:25:30.359 --> 0:25:33.440 knew Jeffrey Epstein very well. And then our relationship ended 0:25:33.480 --> 0:25:35.240 because I didn't like what he was doing to, you know, 0:25:35.320 --> 0:25:39.040 women on my at mar Alago. So we had this 0:25:39.119 --> 0:25:43.240 sort of story that was that had some credibility to 0:25:43.280 --> 0:25:46.080 it that you know, he didn't because there was it 0:25:46.119 --> 0:25:48.840 was true he recruited apparently he recruited one of these 0:25:48.840 --> 0:25:52.320 women from mar Alago, and Trump said he kicked him 0:25:52.320 --> 0:25:54.480 out of mar Alago and said, you can't come back here. 0:25:54.800 --> 0:25:57.439 Now we now learned that that that the reason for 0:25:57.480 --> 0:25:59.840 the real breakup between Epstein and Trump wasn't that it 0:25:59.880 --> 0:26:02.600 was over a piece of property in Palm Beach. We 0:26:02.720 --> 0:26:05.880 eventually learned about that later, but he had a story 0:26:06.359 --> 0:26:09.000 that he was feeding his supporters that yeah, I knew Epstein, 0:26:09.040 --> 0:26:10.560 and then when I realized what he was doing. 0:26:10.359 --> 0:26:10.840 I was out. 0:26:11.280 --> 0:26:15.240 I didn't want that Slee's bag around. Okay, then why 0:26:15.280 --> 0:26:17.880 are you soft on Delanne Maxwell? If you're so outraged 0:26:17.880 --> 0:26:20.880 by what Jeffrey Epstein did, then your Justice Department should 0:26:20.920 --> 0:26:24.040 have made life harder for Maxwell, not easier. But you 0:26:24.119 --> 0:26:27.960 went soft on her. And what he did was is 0:26:28.119 --> 0:26:33.280 essentially made it impossible to defend Trump's actions. You couldn't say, 0:26:33.520 --> 0:26:36.240 you know, if he was as disgusted by what Epstein 0:26:36.280 --> 0:26:38.919 did as he said and he's as disgusted as his 0:26:39.000 --> 0:26:45.080 supporters say they are disgusted. Then this idea of leniency 0:26:45.160 --> 0:26:50.040 on her, giving her, you know, the club fed treatment 0:26:50.119 --> 0:26:54.280 when it comes to transferring her in prison, sending your 0:26:54.280 --> 0:26:58.240 personal attorney who happens to be the Deputy Attorney General, 0:26:58.840 --> 0:27:03.480 to coax answers out of her, including the I never 0:27:03.520 --> 0:27:06.760 saw anything untoward. Uh, it was so important to him 0:27:06.800 --> 0:27:09.560 to get that on the record. But Trump seems to 0:27:09.600 --> 0:27:12.959 be worried about something with Maxwell, when if he actually 0:27:12.960 --> 0:27:17.280 wanted to keep his con up on Epstein, and let's 0:27:17.280 --> 0:27:21.919 assume I'm gonna assume it's a con. And you know, 0:27:21.920 --> 0:27:25.840 with Trump, it's it's hard not to assume that. So 0:27:25.920 --> 0:27:28.920 let's I'm gonna assume it's a con. He'd have been 0:27:28.960 --> 0:27:31.520 better off playing he said she said with her, and 0:27:31.640 --> 0:27:34.920 said he'd and then made life tougher on her. And 0:27:34.920 --> 0:27:37.359 and if and if she threatened to go public with stuff, 0:27:37.440 --> 0:27:40.159 let her go public. She's the one sitting in prison. 0:27:40.359 --> 0:27:43.480 She's got the credibility problem. And then if you were 0:27:43.480 --> 0:27:46.440 being tough on her and she was then pushing back, 0:27:46.960 --> 0:27:49.679 it could simply be she's squealing. But the fact he 0:27:49.720 --> 0:27:53.160 didn't do that right, whatever she he thinks she knows, 0:27:54.080 --> 0:27:58.600 he seems to be fearful enough of that. It's leveraged 0:27:58.600 --> 0:28:02.680 that she's successfully used with him and with Todd Blanche 0:28:03.280 --> 0:28:07.359 and that's why his story falls apart. Now again, does 0:28:07.400 --> 0:28:10.639 any of this matter politically, Well, I go back to 0:28:13.400 --> 0:28:16.280 every Republican's been carrying around Trump baggage for a long time, 0:28:16.320 --> 0:28:19.399 and in some ways they're now used to it. But 0:28:19.440 --> 0:28:22.120 when the economy is as bad as it is right 0:28:22.160 --> 0:28:24.639 now for so many people, and as frustrating of an 0:28:24.640 --> 0:28:26.720 economy as this is, and that's what it is. It's 0:28:26.760 --> 0:28:29.320 a you know, it's one of these things that you 0:28:29.359 --> 0:28:31.639 can look at it statistically and say, well, this is 0:28:31.680 --> 0:28:33.520 going well. Like I saw a stat today that said 0:28:33.960 --> 0:28:37.000 that publicly traded companies are having one of the best 0:28:37.160 --> 0:28:39.840 years earning wise that we've seen. Ninety two percent of 0:28:39.880 --> 0:28:44.440 them are reporting earnings above the normal average. And you're 0:28:44.480 --> 0:28:49.640 just like wow, And yet jobs are decreasing, not increasing, right, 0:28:49.680 --> 0:28:53.320 So that means Wall Street's being rewarded for its efficiencies 0:28:53.440 --> 0:28:56.560 in its companies. Wall Street's being as they as a 0:28:56.640 --> 0:29:00.800 company should make. Your productivity is up and your labor 0:29:00.840 --> 0:29:05.800 costs are down. Good for you. Investors like that. But 0:29:05.840 --> 0:29:07.520 that means there's a whole bunch of people in this 0:29:07.600 --> 0:29:12.600 economy not succeeding. And so that's why it's very hard 0:29:13.120 --> 0:29:15.760 to you know, when Trump's using the stock market as 0:29:15.840 --> 0:29:18.160 a as a as proof that his economy is doing well, 0:29:18.240 --> 0:29:21.720 it's like, yeah, you're you're you're with the hat your 0:29:21.920 --> 0:29:25.000 your economy is working for the haves. Your economy is 0:29:25.040 --> 0:29:28.400 not working for the have nots. And the irony is 0:29:28.400 --> 0:29:33.360 that he built his political coalition on the have nots 0:29:34.040 --> 0:29:37.200 very successfully and now he doesn't seem to care about 0:29:37.200 --> 0:29:40.040 the have nots anymore. And that's where what when these 0:29:40.360 --> 0:29:44.760 That's when I go back to Epstein for the longest time, 0:29:44.920 --> 0:29:48.080 it is basically run into teflon don and has slid 0:29:48.160 --> 0:29:51.280 off of him. Well, I think it's I think he 0:29:51.400 --> 0:29:54.400 is now has a suit of velcrow on. More things 0:29:54.440 --> 0:29:57.280 are sticking to him than ever before. Right, you've got 0:29:57.320 --> 0:30:01.080 sleepy eyes Trump, Now that's sticking to him. You've got 0:30:01.240 --> 0:30:04.880 the medical issues. Huh, something's going on. If he passed 0:30:04.880 --> 0:30:09.280 his MRI. You don't pass an MRI, but congratulations, I 0:30:09.280 --> 0:30:13.040 guess you know you're not at You don't you don't 0:30:13.040 --> 0:30:16.400 do an MRI unless they're wondering what, unless they can't 0:30:16.440 --> 0:30:20.960 find the problem of something that's bothering you. So you 0:30:21.080 --> 0:30:27.040 got that he's just doesn't seem healthy, doesn't look healthy, 0:30:27.080 --> 0:30:30.320 doesn't behavior low. And you can see he's really aged 0:30:30.320 --> 0:30:32.320 a lot in the last six months. Go look at 0:30:32.320 --> 0:30:34.880 clips from April and then look at clips in the 0:30:34.920 --> 0:30:39.360 last two weeks. His voice is thinner. Maybe there are 0:30:39.440 --> 0:30:41.760 days that you know, you could just tell he there 0:30:41.800 --> 0:30:44.840 are days where you know he's tired, and that's always 0:30:44.880 --> 0:30:46.480 a sign of aging. And of course when you're at 0:30:46.520 --> 0:30:49.120 a certain age, and this happened with Biden, just because 0:30:49.160 --> 0:30:52.080 things are fine six months ago, you know this is 0:30:52.120 --> 0:30:54.600 one of those things. At some point in your late 0:30:54.640 --> 0:30:58.360 seventies early eighties, you can you know, you don't age 0:30:59.680 --> 0:31:03.640 at an equal rate. Okay, you sort of go. You 0:31:03.680 --> 0:31:05.800 have fits and starts, and then you know, we've seen that. 0:31:05.880 --> 0:31:09.600 I've had elderly relatives where everything's fine, and then you 0:31:09.640 --> 0:31:11.760 don't see him for six months and you're like, holy cow, 0:31:11.840 --> 0:31:14.640 what happened to uncle Joe? Or I have a real 0:31:14.720 --> 0:31:16.480 uncle Joe, So no, nothing's happened to uncle Joe. I 0:31:16.480 --> 0:31:19.280 don't want uncle Joe. That isn't about about you. I 0:31:19.320 --> 0:31:24.000 was just using like Jane, and I'll go uncle John Doe. 0:31:24.080 --> 0:31:25.840 I don't have an uncle John, so I'll do uncle John. 0:31:26.440 --> 0:31:28.160 Oh my god, what happened to Uncle John? Or what 0:31:28.200 --> 0:31:32.040 happened at Jane? And you know that happens in these 0:31:32.080 --> 0:31:34.000 three and six months. And the point is is that 0:31:34.400 --> 0:31:38.400 you know, it's like the you know, it's like in business, 0:31:38.440 --> 0:31:40.920 your hockey stick moment, but going the wrong way. You're 0:31:40.960 --> 0:31:42.800 going along, You're going along, and all of a sudden, Yep, 0:31:43.280 --> 0:31:48.680 it's off a cliff. It just collectively feels like he 0:31:48.720 --> 0:31:52.200 has now got a suit of valcrow. And so if 0:31:52.200 --> 0:31:56.560 we have essentially six weeks of every couple of days 0:31:56.560 --> 0:31:59.360 there's an Epstein development, which now there's going to be 0:31:59.520 --> 0:32:02.680 now that this discharge petition has happened, they're going to 0:32:02.760 --> 0:32:04.880 have this vote at some point in the next couple 0:32:04.880 --> 0:32:08.600 of weeks that will be there. Then you then it 0:32:08.640 --> 0:32:10.800 has to go to the Senate. I you know, there 0:32:10.880 --> 0:32:13.400 was a time I thought, eh, the Senate will kill it. 0:32:13.800 --> 0:32:16.360 I don't know anymore. Right, it's going to be an 0:32:16.360 --> 0:32:19.920 interesting test. How many Republicans will there be thirty, will 0:32:19.920 --> 0:32:24.280 there be thirteen Republicans who joined forty seven Democrats to 0:32:24.520 --> 0:32:26.680 force this release and force it on is you know, 0:32:26.760 --> 0:32:29.200 for you know, have both the House and the Senate 0:32:29.240 --> 0:32:36.160 have this. That's an interesting development. Is it a moment 0:32:36.840 --> 0:32:41.520 where some Republicans decide, I need to show some independence 0:32:41.520 --> 0:32:44.920 from Trump? Is this the safest place. 0:32:44.680 --> 0:32:45.360 To do it? Right? 0:32:45.920 --> 0:32:48.240 It could be the healthcare subsidies could be a way 0:32:48.280 --> 0:32:52.800 that Republicans distance from Trump. The tariff ruling when it 0:32:52.840 --> 0:32:59.680 comes out likely saying that his his tariffs are unconstitutional. 0:32:59.720 --> 0:33:02.240 Is that at the moment is that the Epstein files. 0:33:02.520 --> 0:33:05.560 The point is there's a lot of ways now that 0:33:05.640 --> 0:33:10.560 Republicans can start to put some distance in a in 0:33:10.960 --> 0:33:13.600 what will look like a baby step, right just voting 0:33:13.600 --> 0:33:16.040 against him on Epstein, or voting against him on tariffs, 0:33:16.120 --> 0:33:19.520 or voting against him on healthcare subsidies. That suddenly what 0:33:19.680 --> 0:33:26.640 is a trickle turns into of you know, a rush 0:33:27.080 --> 0:33:29.920 of you well of water coming out of the faucet, 0:33:30.600 --> 0:33:36.040 essentially trying to get away from him. So that's how 0:33:36.120 --> 0:33:41.880 I think this story is potentially that you know, it's 0:33:42.040 --> 0:33:46.880 it's like javert, do you got him? Now? You know? 0:33:47.040 --> 0:33:50.080 It's it's the accumulation and it's the fact, because of 0:33:50.120 --> 0:33:53.720 this sour economy, he's now wearing a suit with velcrow 0:33:53.760 --> 0:33:56.880 on it and more things. More of this other stuff 0:33:57.360 --> 0:33:59.600 is now going to start to stick to him because 0:33:59.840 --> 0:34:03.080 he he didn't handle the main thing. He was elected 0:34:03.120 --> 0:34:07.600 for one reason and one reason, only bring down costs, 0:34:08.560 --> 0:34:13.640 and he's failing massively at that, which means every other 0:34:14.520 --> 0:34:19.759 secondary issue becomes a problem for that voter because they think, wow, 0:34:20.480 --> 0:34:22.279 he can't do this well. He must be that. He 0:34:22.320 --> 0:34:24.680 must be that, he must be that. And that's why 0:34:24.719 --> 0:34:28.480 this Epstein story could be just yet another sign that 0:34:28.560 --> 0:34:32.640 the lame duck status is now the You know, if 0:34:32.680 --> 0:34:36.560 you were to go to Trump's Facebook page, he should change. 0:34:36.640 --> 0:34:39.560 He may have to change his status to lame duck. 0:34:40.239 --> 0:34:42.279 So with that, I'll sneak in a break and we'll bring 0:34:42.280 --> 0:34:48.560 in Adam Jennilsen. There's a reason results matter more than promises, 0:34:49.040 --> 0:34:51.360 just like there's a reason Morgan and Morgan is America's 0:34:51.520 --> 0:34:54.680 largest injury law firm. For the last thirty five years, 0:34:54.680 --> 0:34:57.719 they've recovered twenty five billion dollars for more than half 0:34:57.760 --> 0:35:01.840 a million clients. It includes case where insurance companies offered 0:35:01.960 --> 0:35:04.719 next to nothing just hoping to get away with paying 0:35:04.760 --> 0:35:07.640 as little as possible. Morgan and Morgan fought back ended 0:35:07.719 --> 0:35:10.480 up winning millions. In fact, in Pennsylvania, one client was 0:35:10.480 --> 0:35:14.320 awarded twenty six million dollars, which was a staggering forty 0:35:14.360 --> 0:35:17.520 times the amount that the insurance company originally offered. That 0:35:17.600 --> 0:35:21.040 original offer six hundred and fifty thousand dollars twenty six million, 0:35:21.280 --> 0:35:23.239 six hundred fifty thousand dollars. So with more than one 0:35:23.280 --> 0:35:25.800 thousand lawyers across the country, they know how to deliver 0:35:25.880 --> 0:35:28.400 for everyday people. If you're injured, you need a lawyer. 0:35:28.840 --> 0:35:31.120 You need somebody to get your back. Check out for 0:35:31.239 --> 0:35:34.839 the People dot com, Slash podcast, or dial pound law, 0:35:35.560 --> 0:35:39.680 pound five two nine law on your cell phone. And 0:35:39.760 --> 0:35:42.000 remember all law firms are not the same. So check 0:35:42.000 --> 0:35:44.799 out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free unless they win. 0:35:48.400 --> 0:35:51.000 So joining me now is Adam Gentlelsid. I've known him 0:35:51.000 --> 0:35:53.759 a long time. He was a longtime staffer for the 0:35:53.840 --> 0:35:57.880 late Senate Majority leader Harry He's author of a book 0:35:58.360 --> 0:36:01.360 about the Senate called kill Switch, The Rise of the 0:36:01.360 --> 0:36:04.279 Modern Senate and the Crippling of American Democracy. So we'll 0:36:04.280 --> 0:36:08.200 have a little fun about about how broken is the 0:36:08.239 --> 0:36:11.080 Senate and how to repair it? But I have them 0:36:11.120 --> 0:36:13.520 on because you just started anew and I'll be curious 0:36:13.520 --> 0:36:15.800 what you describe it, Adam. Is it a think tank? 0:36:15.960 --> 0:36:19.200 Is it a research institute? But it's named after the 0:36:19.239 --> 0:36:21.640 hometown of Harry Reid, search Light, Nevada. It's called the 0:36:21.680 --> 0:36:25.160 search Light. May make sure I get this right? Well, 0:36:25.239 --> 0:36:27.920 you could tell me for sure, search Light Institute? Is 0:36:27.920 --> 0:36:28.480 that right? Right? 0:36:28.719 --> 0:36:29.000 Got it? 0:36:29.040 --> 0:36:33.799 Here we go, so basically trying to get Democrats to 0:36:33.880 --> 0:36:37.880 broaden the tent, make the case that this is a 0:36:38.680 --> 0:36:40.799 big tent. And given that you worked for Harry Reid, 0:36:40.840 --> 0:36:43.600 who was for years known as personally pro life or 0:36:43.640 --> 0:36:47.200 pro gun at times, you know, certainly was culturally a 0:36:47.239 --> 0:36:51.320 bit conservative, if a probably an original populist on economic 0:36:51.400 --> 0:36:54.799 issues that I think people if you didn't follow his 0:36:54.840 --> 0:36:59.799 career closely, might not realize. So in many ways, naming 0:36:59.840 --> 0:37:01.520 it after Harry read makes a lot of sense to me. 0:37:01.560 --> 0:37:04.000 But what is it? What do you describe search Slight Institutes? 0:37:04.120 --> 0:37:05.640 The think tank? Is it something else? 0:37:05.719 --> 0:37:07.160 We are an action tank, Chuck? 0:37:07.280 --> 0:37:12.360 And that feels like a focus group word, dude, Well, 0:37:12.400 --> 0:37:15.279 you know the reason I call it that is that 0:37:15.440 --> 0:37:17.719 is that you know, we we develop ideas, but we 0:37:17.760 --> 0:37:19.120 don't want them to sit on the shelf. 0:37:19.200 --> 0:37:21.160 You know, these aren't white papers that are designed to 0:37:21.320 --> 0:37:23.840 just sort of be read by academics and policy wonks. 0:37:24.200 --> 0:37:27.520 You know, they're they're well thought through, their credible, but 0:37:27.560 --> 0:37:29.520 we want them to be put into action, and we 0:37:29.560 --> 0:37:31.799 want them to become legislation. We want them to become 0:37:31.800 --> 0:37:35.560 talked about on campaigns, and we want them to shape 0:37:35.560 --> 0:37:37.719 the debate. And so the part of the reason we 0:37:37.760 --> 0:37:40.279 have both a policy development arm of what we do 0:37:40.360 --> 0:37:42.279 and and appolling arm of what we do is to 0:37:42.719 --> 0:37:45.480 you know, try to get that balance right between being 0:37:45.480 --> 0:37:47.680 responsive to the public listening to the American people. I 0:37:47.680 --> 0:37:50.279 think in a democracy it's very important to actually have 0:37:50.400 --> 0:37:52.840 the policies that are developed reflect the will of the people, 0:37:53.760 --> 0:37:56.279 but then factor that in to how we develop our 0:37:56.320 --> 0:37:58.400 own policies, you know, And we don't just pull to 0:37:58.440 --> 0:38:00.640 say what's popular. We just want to understand people think 0:38:00.680 --> 0:38:03.200 and then design people design policy in a way that 0:38:03.239 --> 0:38:05.719 sort of bridges the divide sometimes between what we think 0:38:05.760 --> 0:38:07.640 is correct on the policy and where the American people 0:38:07.680 --> 0:38:09.920 are in their own thoughts and feelings on the issue. 0:38:10.600 --> 0:38:14.000 Compare yourself to cat Center for American Progress, which is 0:38:14.120 --> 0:38:16.880 arguably the sort of the leading progressive think tank these 0:38:16.960 --> 0:38:19.160 days in Washington. We're more head of Then and Then 0:38:19.280 --> 0:38:23.120 and Brookings, you know, more center left, I guess, or 0:38:23.400 --> 0:38:26.279 you might say very academic in comparison to the other two. 0:38:26.640 --> 0:38:29.839 That's exactly right. And I think on sort of ideology 0:38:30.400 --> 0:38:32.680 compared to both of those, we are more heterodox. We 0:38:32.719 --> 0:38:35.080 will take the best ideas from wherever they come from, 0:38:35.120 --> 0:38:39.080 from across the ideological spectrum. And it's my own personal 0:38:39.160 --> 0:38:42.040 view that the best and most durable and frankly the 0:38:42.360 --> 0:38:45.960 policies that bring the biggest change to this country tend 0:38:45.960 --> 0:38:50.040 to reflect points of view from across the ideological spectrum. 0:38:50.200 --> 0:38:53.279 So I think a lot about social Security, right and 0:38:53.520 --> 0:38:56.680 you know, people have called social Security liberal ends by 0:38:56.719 --> 0:39:01.279 conservative means. It's the greatest anti poverty we've ever implemented. 0:39:02.760 --> 0:39:04.960 Is you know, a core part of Democrats appeal to 0:39:04.960 --> 0:39:08.440 the American people, but it also embraced conservative principles of 0:39:08.440 --> 0:39:12.279 personal responsibility people paid in FDR himself was personally would 0:39:12.360 --> 0:39:14.640 rail against the dole and cabinet meetings. He would say, 0:39:14.640 --> 0:39:17.120 this is not a dole, this is not welfare people 0:39:17.160 --> 0:39:18.800 are going to earn what they get, they're going to 0:39:18.840 --> 0:39:20.680 pay into it through the payroll tax, and then I 0:39:20.719 --> 0:39:23.080 get something back in return. So you know, we try, 0:39:23.320 --> 0:39:25.880 we try to think about that balance as we develop policy. 0:39:26.080 --> 0:39:29.239 We're smaller, we're nimble. I think we're more action oriented 0:39:29.760 --> 0:39:31.640 than some of the folks who've been around for a 0:39:31.640 --> 0:39:33.960 long time. And I think, but you know, it's it's 0:39:33.960 --> 0:39:35.560 the more the merrier as far as I'm concerned. 0:39:36.080 --> 0:39:39.680 We were talking off camera here for a minute and 0:39:39.680 --> 0:39:41.520 you were talking about how your office space is right 0:39:41.520 --> 0:39:44.399 in your heritage, and it's interesting you brought up Social 0:39:44.440 --> 0:39:47.120 Security as an example that sort of meshed a liberal 0:39:47.120 --> 0:39:51.239 and conservative idea. I could argue Obamacare did the same thing, right, 0:39:51.320 --> 0:39:54.400 you know, the infamous heritage. You know, the heritage has 0:39:54.400 --> 0:39:58.080 been through a lot of shall we say, facelifts over 0:39:58.080 --> 0:40:00.839 the years. Maybe they have a mar lago look now 0:40:01.000 --> 0:40:03.319 that they went to the doctor and got my joke, 0:40:03.400 --> 0:40:06.520 not years, but in the nineties they came up with 0:40:07.040 --> 0:40:10.000 essentially the healthcare plan that was the model for Mett 0:40:10.040 --> 0:40:13.120 Romney and arguably the model for Barack Obama. 0:40:13.200 --> 0:40:16.040 That's exactly right, and you know, having sort of been 0:40:16.840 --> 0:40:19.560 actually a cap for a little while while while the 0:40:19.719 --> 0:40:22.200 affordable character was being debated during the OI campaign and 0:40:22.560 --> 0:40:25.200 then legislated and then being on the hill through a 0:40:25.239 --> 0:40:27.799 lot of that too. That's exactly right, and you know, 0:40:28.600 --> 0:40:31.320 part of the way that we were able to pass 0:40:31.640 --> 0:40:34.920 that was by embracing conservative ideas, and in fact it 0:40:35.000 --> 0:40:37.319 was modeled You're one hundred percent correct. There was a 0:40:37.320 --> 0:40:40.200 Heritage study in the nineties that sort of provided the 0:40:40.200 --> 0:40:43.360 intellectual basis for it, and then it was put into 0:40:43.440 --> 0:40:48.239 practice first by Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney when he was 0:40:48.280 --> 0:40:51.200 governor there, and people called it Romneycare, so you know, 0:40:51.719 --> 0:40:54.800 before it was Obamacare, it was Romneycare, and it certainly 0:40:54.840 --> 0:40:57.880 reflected you know, the idea of having an individual mandate, 0:40:58.800 --> 0:41:01.040 you know, and other aspects of it were and you know, 0:41:01.080 --> 0:41:03.400 frankly being aimed at bending the cost curve, at bringing 0:41:03.400 --> 0:41:05.239 down the deficit. These are all conservative principles that were 0:41:05.239 --> 0:41:07.480 incorporating into that development, although Heritage walked away from it. 0:41:08.000 --> 0:41:10.120 You know, every once in a while, I always try 0:41:10.160 --> 0:41:12.239 to give little breadcrumbs to sort of like, you know, 0:41:12.400 --> 0:41:14.840 how my political mind was shaped by my parents, and 0:41:14.960 --> 0:41:17.520 you know, my father had this saying when I remember 0:41:17.560 --> 0:41:19.600 as a kid, he'd said, you know, and I'd ask him, 0:41:19.640 --> 0:41:22.960 you know, and he was he became a he was 0:41:22.960 --> 0:41:26.040 a Reagan Democrat that became a Reagan Conservative. And he'd 0:41:26.040 --> 0:41:28.400 say he left the Democratic Party over LPJ and Vietnam. 0:41:28.719 --> 0:41:30.480 That was that was sort of where you went. But 0:41:30.520 --> 0:41:32.400 he used to also say, he goes, you know, I 0:41:32.440 --> 0:41:34.160 want the Democrats to come up with the ideas and 0:41:34.200 --> 0:41:36.880 I want the Republicans to implement them. It was like 0:41:36.960 --> 0:41:39.120 that that was his in his mindset, you know, at 0:41:39.160 --> 0:41:41.040 the time, and that back in the seventies and eighties, 0:41:41.040 --> 0:41:44.000 the perception of the two parties was, you know, the 0:41:44.440 --> 0:41:50.759 the managerial brain was on the Republican side and the 0:41:50.760 --> 0:41:53.040 the empathy brain was on the Democratic side, and that 0:41:53.400 --> 0:41:54.879 you know, if you had too much empathy, it would 0:41:54.880 --> 0:41:57.200 be too expensive. You needed, you know, that sort of balance. 0:41:57.640 --> 0:41:59.719 And in some ways what you're describing here was what 0:41:59.800 --> 0:42:02.080 you describe to Social Security, what we were retelling the 0:42:02.080 --> 0:42:05.520 story of Obamacare somewhere that does sort of work itself 0:42:05.520 --> 0:42:10.000 out right, that the stuff that sticks is the stuff 0:42:10.719 --> 0:42:16.040 that is more ideologically diverse when it comes to the 0:42:16.080 --> 0:42:18.880 cooks in the kitchen that create the policy. 0:42:18.960 --> 0:42:21.360 Right, that's that's exactly right. I mean, you know, we've 0:42:21.440 --> 0:42:24.400 fallen out of this balance, and we're talking. 0:42:24.239 --> 0:42:25.319 About for polarized. 0:42:25.400 --> 0:42:28.440 We're so polarized, we'll talk about Philbuster, you know. You know, 0:42:28.600 --> 0:42:29.480 I think that's a big part of it. 0:42:29.600 --> 0:42:32.920 I argue the two parties aren't as you know, I 0:42:32.920 --> 0:42:35.560 always say, what's the biggest change in American politics in 0:42:35.560 --> 0:42:39.080 my lifetime, It's been the lack of ideological diversity inside 0:42:39.080 --> 0:42:39.840 the two parties. 0:42:40.080 --> 0:42:41.880 Oh well, you know, I mean think of that was 0:42:41.920 --> 0:42:44.359 the huge chain, one hundred percent. I mean, I think 0:42:44.400 --> 0:42:47.319 a lot about what the Senate Democratic Caucus looked like 0:42:47.440 --> 0:42:49.480 back when I worked for Harry Reid in the Senate 0:42:49.560 --> 0:42:50.640 and we had first of all, we. 0:42:50.640 --> 0:42:53.000 Talk about all those northern red states that had Democratic 0:42:53.040 --> 0:42:54.680 senators for well. 0:42:54.560 --> 0:42:59.200 I mean, yeah, both Dakotas, you know, we had senators there, 0:42:59.239 --> 0:43:02.480 We had a senator Nebraska. We had both Senate boat. 0:43:02.520 --> 0:43:04.200 Centers in Nebraska for a long time. 0:43:04.360 --> 0:43:08.200 That's right, Bob Carry and Ben Nelson. We had both 0:43:08.239 --> 0:43:11.319 Senate seats in Montana for a long time, both seats 0:43:11.360 --> 0:43:13.440 in Arkansas. If you want to move further south, Louisia 0:43:13.440 --> 0:43:14.960 had one seat in Louisiana. I mean you know, we 0:43:15.040 --> 0:43:16.960 had I think when I went to count it, it 0:43:17.040 --> 0:43:19.120 was we had at least one one Senate seat in 0:43:19.239 --> 0:43:21.840 thirty six of the fifty states, right, so just really 0:43:21.840 --> 0:43:25.560 spread across the country. And the reason why was this 0:43:25.760 --> 0:43:29.880 ideological diversity that you're describing. You know, senators like Max Bocchus, 0:43:29.960 --> 0:43:34.520 ben Nelson, mary Landrew, Blanche Lincoln. They were four things 0:43:34.680 --> 0:43:36.960 like you know, mary Landrew was strongly in favor of 0:43:37.000 --> 0:43:39.440 the fossil fuel industry, coming from a state like Louisiana 0:43:39.520 --> 0:43:42.319 where that was critical to the economy. Ben Nelson was 0:43:42.360 --> 0:43:45.399 pro life, Blanche Lincoln was in favor of fiscal responsibility 0:43:45.400 --> 0:43:46.200 and balanced budgets. 0:43:46.239 --> 0:43:46.359 Right. 0:43:46.400 --> 0:43:49.520 And that didn't make them not Democrats, right, They still 0:43:49.520 --> 0:43:52.200 were strongly Democratic on most issues. They still voted with 0:43:52.239 --> 0:43:55.759 the party, you know, on most issues. But embracing that 0:43:55.920 --> 0:44:00.560 ideological diversity is what allowed us to win that seats 0:44:00.600 --> 0:44:02.759 in those states. And what we've done over the last 0:44:02.760 --> 0:44:07.000 ten years is to try to purity test out anybody 0:44:07.000 --> 0:44:10.120 who has any kind of ideological diversity, particularly when it 0:44:10.160 --> 0:44:12.040 goes to the right, and that's just shot ourselves in 0:44:12.080 --> 0:44:15.200 the foot. It's left us unable to win seats in 0:44:15.280 --> 0:44:18.320 those red states where we barely can can't even compete 0:44:18.360 --> 0:44:18.880 these days. 0:44:19.320 --> 0:44:21.239 You know, it's funny you brought up Blanche Lincoln and 0:44:21.280 --> 0:44:23.759 remember that primary challenge she had to deal with sure 0:44:23.840 --> 0:44:28.120 do yep and organizing him right, And it was it 0:44:28.280 --> 0:44:30.319 was you're just sitting there going, guys, what are you doing. 0:44:30.440 --> 0:44:33.840 She's already in a tough general election. What are you 0:44:33.880 --> 0:44:37.640 doing to her? And it made a tough situation worse well. 0:44:37.480 --> 0:44:39.520 And it's a good point because you know, I think 0:44:39.600 --> 0:44:42.359 what gets mixed up in the sort of debate on 0:44:42.360 --> 0:44:45.880 social media and elsewhere about this is that to embrace 0:44:45.920 --> 0:44:49.680 somebody like Blanche Lincoln doesn't require you or your friends 0:44:49.800 --> 0:44:53.160 or most other Democrats to change their points of view. Right, 0:44:53.600 --> 0:44:56.719 I'm strongly pro union. Most of my policy views are 0:44:56.719 --> 0:44:58.760 probably pretty far to the left of the American electorate. 0:44:58.840 --> 0:45:01.479 But for someone like Lincoln to win in a state 0:45:01.600 --> 0:45:04.800 like Arkansas, she's going to have to take different positions, 0:45:04.800 --> 0:45:08.520 positions that diverge from my own, and that impulse towards 0:45:08.600 --> 0:45:12.640 purity is going to guarantee that our caucus is smaller, 0:45:12.719 --> 0:45:15.920 that the number of Americans Democrats are able to represent 0:45:16.480 --> 0:45:18.239 is smaller that the number of Americans who look at 0:45:18.239 --> 0:45:20.160 Democrats and say that is a party I want to 0:45:20.160 --> 0:45:21.160 be a part of. Is smaller. 0:45:23.239 --> 0:45:26.319 You know. I got my start at National Journal, and 0:45:26.520 --> 0:45:29.320 they were famous in the seventies and eighties and nineties 0:45:29.320 --> 0:45:29.879 for doing this. 0:45:30.560 --> 0:45:30.759 You know. 0:45:30.760 --> 0:45:32.319 Now we've got a whole bunch of other ways that 0:45:32.360 --> 0:45:36.560 people look to use sort of votes to put people 0:45:36.600 --> 0:45:39.040 on the political spectrum. But there was always when I 0:45:39.040 --> 0:45:41.560 first started at National Journal, when the Almanek would come out, 0:45:41.600 --> 0:45:45.160 it was always interesting how many Democrats are to the 0:45:45.280 --> 0:45:48.600 right of the most liberal Republican and how many Republicans 0:45:48.600 --> 0:45:51.400 are to the left of the most conservative Democrats. And 0:45:51.440 --> 0:45:53.879 there was always you know, and we would lament, Oh, 0:45:53.880 --> 0:45:56.560 it's getting smaller every year. I think it's been a 0:45:56.640 --> 0:46:00.759 decade since the streams have crossed, meaning like you know, 0:46:00.800 --> 0:46:03.640 I think Mansion and Collins were like this. If I'm 0:46:03.880 --> 0:46:06.000 for those of you just listening on audio, my hands 0:46:06.000 --> 0:46:09.239 are very close together but not touching, almost in the 0:46:09.239 --> 0:46:11.800 way it was almost felt like they were being repelled. 0:46:12.960 --> 0:46:15.319 Do you think that is a bad thing or a 0:46:15.360 --> 0:46:17.680 good thing for the US c oh. 0:46:17.520 --> 0:46:19.080 I think it's I think it's a very bad thing. 0:46:19.160 --> 0:46:24.160 I think that you have to have people on you know, 0:46:24.239 --> 0:46:26.000 you have to be able to build bridges across the 0:46:26.120 --> 0:46:28.160 logical lines, and you know, sometimes you can do that 0:46:28.160 --> 0:46:30.640 in a strange Bedfellow's way, where you know, you have 0:46:30.840 --> 0:46:33.280 you know, a Bernie Sanders alliance with a Josh Holly 0:46:33.360 --> 0:46:34.319 or you know on some. 0:46:34.400 --> 0:46:36.400 Is sure and you see this in some of these populists. 0:46:36.520 --> 0:46:39.319 Yeah, yeah, but I think that it shouldn't be the 0:46:39.320 --> 0:46:41.920 case that you know, the sort of you know that 0:46:41.920 --> 0:46:45.360 there's no senator in the Democratic Caucus who is anywhere 0:46:45.360 --> 0:46:48.520 close to Republicans on ideology. I could get beat up 0:46:48.520 --> 0:46:50.360 by some of my party for saying that, but I think, 0:46:50.680 --> 0:46:52.759 you know what if that is the case, you know, 0:46:52.800 --> 0:46:55.440 there are consequences, there are trade offs to taking that approach, 0:46:55.600 --> 0:46:57.879 and that's what we have here where Democrats can only 0:46:57.960 --> 0:47:01.160 win forty seven sentence seats at best, you know, maybe 0:47:01.160 --> 0:47:04.840 scrape by to the narrowest imaginable majority, but that's you know, 0:47:04.840 --> 0:47:07.279 there's a consequence of taking that approach and narrowing your 0:47:07.320 --> 0:47:09.560 tents simply means you can win in fewer places. 0:47:10.040 --> 0:47:11.920 Look, and to me, this is the I think the 0:47:11.960 --> 0:47:14.880 baseline of what I remember seeing your press release when 0:47:14.920 --> 0:47:16.360 you first came out. I think an op ed that 0:47:16.400 --> 0:47:20.560 you wrote as well. You know, I think that the 0:47:20.560 --> 0:47:26.360 twenty thirty two presidential election, if you just if Kamala 0:47:26.360 --> 0:47:29.640 Harris carried the same the Democratic candidate carries every state 0:47:29.719 --> 0:47:38.040 that Kamala Harris carried, and they won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Well, 0:47:38.080 --> 0:47:39.879 and right now, that was worth two hundred and seventy 0:47:39.880 --> 0:47:43.200 electoral votes. She'd have won right on the nose. That's 0:47:43.200 --> 0:47:44.560 only going to be worth two hundred and fifty nine 0:47:44.600 --> 0:47:47.799 electoral votes come twenty thirty two. That path, so every 0:47:47.840 --> 0:47:50.040 state she carried, plus the three in the Midwest, the 0:47:50.040 --> 0:47:53.760 three Midwestern states, and then when you look at Senate seats, 0:47:54.280 --> 0:47:57.320 because I've done this math, if Democrats sweep the seven 0:47:57.360 --> 0:48:02.520 battlegrounds in Senate seats, right, and when every Senate seat 0:48:02.520 --> 0:48:05.560 in every blue state that she carried, the max I 0:48:05.560 --> 0:48:06.439 think is fifty two. 0:48:07.680 --> 0:48:08.680 Yep, that's right. 0:48:08.960 --> 0:48:12.239 I mean you just said thirty six states at one point, right, 0:48:12.320 --> 0:48:15.040 which is why I mean, let's look at Barack Obama's 0:48:15.040 --> 0:48:18.120 first year, that six month period when you had sixty 0:48:18.840 --> 0:48:21.560 Senate seats. All right, it was a brief period, and 0:48:21.600 --> 0:48:24.120 it was you know, we can yes, it was some weird. 0:48:24.280 --> 0:48:26.640 You know, you had the specter party switch and all that. 0:48:27.000 --> 0:48:30.160 But the fact of the matter is, I don't know 0:48:30.200 --> 0:48:32.359 what a path to sixty would look like. Let's say 0:48:32.360 --> 0:48:34.440 that was your goal, you know, got to get to 0:48:34.560 --> 0:48:38.839 sixty Senate seats. What's that path look like in today's politics. Well, 0:48:38.880 --> 0:48:40.800 that is our goal. I mean's that's what Searchlight is 0:48:40.800 --> 0:48:43.280 here to do. We are trying to craft an agenda 0:48:43.480 --> 0:48:46.319 and an approach that will allow Democrats to aim at 0:48:46.360 --> 0:48:48.560 sixty Senate seats. We talk a lot about this idea 0:48:48.600 --> 0:48:52.560 of super majority thinking here, and a supermajority mindset is 0:48:52.600 --> 0:48:55.680 not to aim at two hundred and seventy electoral votes 0:48:55.760 --> 0:48:57.799 and to try to scrape by there or aim at 0:48:57.800 --> 0:49:00.359 you know, narrow majorities in the House and Senate. It's 0:49:00.400 --> 0:49:03.000 to aim at three hundred and sixty five electoral votes, 0:49:03.000 --> 0:49:05.200 which is what Obama won in two thousand and eight, 0:49:05.480 --> 0:49:07.600 and it's to aim at sixty Senate seats and then 0:49:07.640 --> 0:49:09.880 work backwards from there. So you know, what that looks 0:49:10.000 --> 0:49:14.840 like is much more flexibility on issues across the board. 0:49:14.960 --> 0:49:16.680 You know, I personally think that if you were to 0:49:16.719 --> 0:49:20.680 sort of devise a basic template, you know, and again 0:49:20.719 --> 0:49:22.680 I sort of am allergic to templates. I think part 0:49:22.719 --> 0:49:24.080 of what we're trying to do here is is create 0:49:24.120 --> 0:49:26.279 more flexibility. But just for the sake of argument, you know, 0:49:26.440 --> 0:49:29.760 let's let's root this in some you know, concrete idea 0:49:29.800 --> 0:49:32.920 of ideology. I think, you know, economic populism is. 0:49:32.880 --> 0:49:36.359 A powerful force. It's so powerful that Trump has embraced it. 0:49:36.719 --> 0:49:39.760 Trump has moved to the center on issues like social 0:49:39.800 --> 0:49:41.000 security and Medicare. 0:49:41.120 --> 0:49:44.640 And the only reason Republicans got have won the popular 0:49:44.719 --> 0:49:47.200 vote exactly right. I mean, I think it is at 0:49:47.360 --> 0:49:51.040 that specific decision he doesn't make that. You know, we 0:49:51.080 --> 0:49:54.000 all there's a lot of people that you know, say 0:49:54.000 --> 0:49:56.040 Paul Ryan had a high character guy and all of 0:49:56.040 --> 0:50:02.880 those things, but the Paul Ryan view of entitlements was 0:50:02.960 --> 0:50:06.360 a losing issue for the Republican Party, which is why 0:50:06.600 --> 0:50:08.040 Mett Romney never won the president. 0:50:08.200 --> 0:50:10.560 And this is part of what our theory of the 0:50:10.600 --> 0:50:14.279 case is, is that a Democratic presidential candidate can just 0:50:14.440 --> 0:50:17.880 decide to embrace a different set of policy positions like 0:50:17.880 --> 0:50:20.080 we are here to help provide that infrastructure and help 0:50:20.200 --> 0:50:22.719 you know, create those ideas and provide the air cover. 0:50:22.800 --> 0:50:24.279 Put a little bit of a blue stamp on it. 0:50:24.320 --> 0:50:28.239 So it doesn't feel so hard for some left maybe. 0:50:28.480 --> 0:50:31.760 Right, but you were there. It's difficult to overstate how 0:50:32.000 --> 0:50:35.560 sort of encased in concrete. The conventional wisdom was in 0:50:35.600 --> 0:50:39.799 twenty sixteen that entitlement cuts were part of what you 0:50:39.920 --> 0:50:42.280 had to be in favor of in order to succeed 0:50:42.320 --> 0:50:44.920 in a Republican primary. You know, Paul Ryan was the 0:50:45.000 --> 0:50:47.640 vice presidential nominee in twenty twelve. He was the Speaker 0:50:47.680 --> 0:50:49.759 of the House by the time the primary was in 0:50:49.840 --> 0:50:53.319 full swing in twenty sixteen, Ryanism was considered, you know, 0:50:53.480 --> 0:50:59.839 orthodoxy among Republicans, trying which lays the stool, right, that's irresponsibility. Right. 0:51:00.000 --> 0:51:01.600 Trump just threw it all out the window, you know. 0:51:01.719 --> 0:51:03.760 I mean I remember him standing on the debate stage. 0:51:03.800 --> 0:51:05.840 You know. The Iraq War is another issue that was considered, 0:51:05.880 --> 0:51:08.600 you know, orthodoxy. In twenty fifteen, he stood on a 0:51:08.600 --> 0:51:10.960 debate stage in South Carolina and he turned to Jeb 0:51:10.960 --> 0:51:13.520 Bush and said, I think the Iraq War that your 0:51:13.560 --> 0:51:16.520 brother started was a big, fat mistake, you know. And 0:51:16.560 --> 0:51:21.719 so it is really difficult to imagine a Democratic candidate 0:51:22.680 --> 0:51:25.960 diverging from their party and taking stances in opposition to 0:51:26.000 --> 0:51:30.840 the Democratic ideology on that level, you know, of that magnitude. 0:51:31.120 --> 0:51:33.920 But that's what we need is we need Democrats to say, 0:51:34.280 --> 0:51:36.520 you know, we are here to break that rigidity, We 0:51:36.520 --> 0:51:39.319 are here to open up a new pathway and to 0:51:39.360 --> 0:51:41.480 bring in more voters. And you know, Trump, it is 0:51:41.520 --> 0:51:45.480 an underappreciated aspect of his appeal that he was truly heterodox. 0:51:45.560 --> 0:51:49.200 He defied his party's orthodoxy on three or four or 0:51:49.239 --> 0:51:52.160 even more very high profile issues that were considered core 0:51:52.200 --> 0:51:54.440 to the Republican ideology. And that's part of why people 0:51:54.800 --> 0:51:56.680 saw him as a different kind of Republican. 0:51:57.120 --> 0:51:59.279 Oh, I'm convinced. And this is also why you can 0:51:59.320 --> 0:52:01.640 sort of see I mean, I'm convinced that this is 0:52:01.640 --> 0:52:03.040 a coalition it's not going to be able to hold 0:52:03.040 --> 0:52:07.520 itself together without him in whatever you know, we you know, 0:52:08.520 --> 0:52:11.279 set aside the character issue the guy has the guy 0:52:11.320 --> 0:52:15.880 created a coalition that was unique. It was durable for him. Right, 0:52:15.960 --> 0:52:19.080 It's not really been transferable, but it's been durable for him. 0:52:19.239 --> 0:52:22.359 And and the thing is is you can see it, right, 0:52:23.000 --> 0:52:26.880 the conversation on snap benefits the conversation on healthcare. They're 0:52:26.960 --> 0:52:30.120 not singing off the same song sheet because they're actually 0:52:30.200 --> 0:52:33.600 a coalition that that sort of got forged together and culture, 0:52:33.600 --> 0:52:36.320 and they're they're all over the place on economic policy, 0:52:36.640 --> 0:52:39.120 and I think that's where this thing starts to break 0:52:39.160 --> 0:52:39.919 apart pretty soon. 0:52:40.080 --> 0:52:42.320 I think that's right. I mean, that's that's the optimistic 0:52:42.400 --> 0:52:45.240 view for sure, and I think it's probably the right one, 0:52:45.440 --> 0:52:48.320 you know, especially the economy keeps feeling the way it 0:52:48.440 --> 0:52:52.120 definitely this it's a I always say, it's like, if 0:52:52.160 --> 0:52:54.400 you have a little bit of money, this economy is okay. 0:52:54.920 --> 0:52:57.000 You know, everything's a little more expensive, but it's okay. 0:52:57.040 --> 0:52:58.719 If you have some money in the stock market, you 0:52:58.760 --> 0:53:01.680 feel like, okay, I'm I've got Pad. But if you 0:53:01.719 --> 0:53:05.440 don't have Pad, this economy is horrible. Right, that's the rendous. 0:53:05.440 --> 0:53:06.800 It's the Disneyland phenomenon. 0:53:06.840 --> 0:53:06.960 Right. 0:53:07.000 --> 0:53:10.000 If you can afford the express pass, you know, it's great. 0:53:10.120 --> 0:53:11.960 But if you can't, you know, you're stuck in three 0:53:11.960 --> 0:53:14.399 hour lines the whole time for one ride. So yeah, 0:53:14.480 --> 0:53:18.440 it's you know, it's you know, I worked for I 0:53:18.440 --> 0:53:20.839 don't know of your listeners. Remember John Edwards the Center 0:53:20.880 --> 0:53:22.759 of North Carolina in two thosand and eight. He talked 0:53:22.800 --> 0:53:26.480 about two Americas, And I think that's what we're seeing these. 0:53:26.320 --> 0:53:32.600 Days, having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know 0:53:32.640 --> 0:53:35.919 from personal experience. I was sixteen when my father passed away. 0:53:35.960 --> 0:53:38.360 We didn't have any money. 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So protect 0:54:48.440 --> 0:54:51.839 your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get your free 0:54:51.920 --> 0:54:55.600 quote at ethos dot com slash chuck. So again, that's 0:54:55.680 --> 0:55:00.840 Ethos dot com slash chuck. Application times very and the 0:55:00.920 --> 0:55:04.120 rates themselves may vary as well, but trust me, life 0:55:04.120 --> 0:55:07.359 insurance is something you should really think about, especially if 0:55:07.360 --> 0:55:12.799 you've got a growing family. Boy, that speech would be 0:55:12.960 --> 0:55:17.879 really resident today. I agree more so. I mean, you know, Edwards, 0:55:19.560 --> 0:55:22.520 he was a blast being there is a ton and 0:55:22.640 --> 0:55:26.080 I sort of I have not to go off on 0:55:26.160 --> 0:55:29.840 a tangent here I have. I think there's more empathy 0:55:29.880 --> 0:55:34.799 that that the Edwards family deserves. You never get over 0:55:34.840 --> 0:55:39.840 losing a child, and and I've always thought that their life, so, 0:55:40.239 --> 0:55:42.239 you know, and it threw him into politics, I get 0:55:42.280 --> 0:55:44.480 in some ways it did, But you know that that 0:55:45.200 --> 0:55:49.560 I think that you can't judge Edwards without understanding that. 0:55:49.680 --> 0:55:52.080 So I'm always a little more empathetic, I think than 0:55:52.120 --> 0:55:56.160 the average person on him. But boy, his you know, 0:55:56.640 --> 0:55:59.320 and what he was was it's old Southern populace and 0:55:59.360 --> 0:56:02.520 it's no different Zell Miller, Bill Clinton, Dick Riley. I 0:56:02.520 --> 0:56:04.840 think about all everything you're describing here. I think about 0:56:05.200 --> 0:56:09.080 what Trump is doing. This is what the Southern Democrats were, 0:56:09.239 --> 0:56:12.279 Those Southern Democratic governors were. They would they were like, hey, 0:56:12.280 --> 0:56:14.080 government can be a good thing for you, and we 0:56:14.120 --> 0:56:18.759 want to help you. But they were also culturally somewhat conservative, right, 0:56:18.800 --> 0:56:21.799 your Zell Millers, your Bill Clinton's, your Dick Riley's. But 0:56:21.840 --> 0:56:24.960 those Southern governors of the eighties, in some ways, the 0:56:25.000 --> 0:56:29.720 economic policies they were pushing are exactly what's popular. 0:56:29.280 --> 0:56:31.600 Today, that's right. I mean, you know John Edwards, son 0:56:31.600 --> 0:56:33.239 of a mill worker, you know, I mean he was 0:56:33.440 --> 0:56:37.160 in touch with with regular people, and you know that 0:56:37.160 --> 0:56:39.440 that economic populism, I mean, that was the foundation of 0:56:39.440 --> 0:56:41.839 the New Deal coalition, you know. I mean that that 0:56:41.960 --> 0:56:45.239 was the foundation of lbj's coalition too. You know, as 0:56:45.239 --> 0:56:46.960 you mentioned your father, I mean, you know, some of 0:56:46.960 --> 0:56:50.279 the cultural stuff, that's that's the you know, on the 0:56:50.280 --> 0:56:52.880 Republican side, it's it's can you hold people together on 0:56:52.920 --> 0:56:57.720 cultural issues while you pass economic policies that primarily benefit 0:56:57.760 --> 0:57:00.879 the wealthiest and the big corporations, and the Democratic side, 0:57:00.880 --> 0:57:04.280 it's can you hold people together on economic populism issues, 0:57:04.600 --> 0:57:07.080 you know, while you often take stances on cultural issues 0:57:07.080 --> 0:57:09.080 that the American people don't agree with. And I think 0:57:09.320 --> 0:57:13.440 when Democrats and liberals succeed, it's when they're able to 0:57:13.520 --> 0:57:17.920 center their message on those core economic populist ideas and 0:57:18.000 --> 0:57:21.200 provide some flexibility on cultural issues in a way that 0:57:21.200 --> 0:57:23.120 will allow us to win in more states. 0:57:23.800 --> 0:57:27.960 Let me introduce an uncomfortable question about Democrats. I can 0:57:28.040 --> 0:57:30.720 make an argument that the four Democratic presidents of my 0:57:30.800 --> 0:57:34.960 lifetime that have been elected, Carter, Clinton, Obama, and Biden, 0:57:36.040 --> 0:57:38.680 none of them win without the economic downturn that was 0:57:38.720 --> 0:57:42.280 happening during their initial campaign. And I say that in 0:57:42.320 --> 0:57:45.360 that is that the only path to the presidency for 0:57:45.440 --> 0:57:46.040 a Democrat? 0:57:47.040 --> 0:57:50.320 Well, I think what that those downturns do is they, 0:57:50.400 --> 0:57:53.440 you know, when you're in times of prosperity, people people 0:57:53.440 --> 0:57:55.840 gravitate more towards cultural issues, you know, And I think 0:57:55.920 --> 0:58:00.520 that's that's sort of a pattern there, and then Republicans, 0:58:01.120 --> 0:58:04.760 you know, win on cultural issues past policies that benefit 0:58:04.840 --> 0:58:07.200 the top one percent and often you know, run up 0:58:07.240 --> 0:58:10.880 huge deficits, despite their you know, their claim to care 0:58:10.920 --> 0:58:13.920 about this corresponsibility, and then that leads to a crash 0:58:13.920 --> 0:58:15.600 and Democrats have to come in and you know, and 0:58:15.760 --> 0:58:19.760 refocuses the public's attention on how unbalanced and tilted towards 0:58:19.800 --> 0:58:22.120 the one percent Republicans policies, where I don't think it's 0:58:22.120 --> 0:58:28.880 a necessary precondition, but you know, it certainly focuses voters' 0:58:28.880 --> 0:58:33.680 minds on the unfairness and gross inequity of Republicans economic policies. 0:58:33.680 --> 0:58:34.040 For sure. 0:58:34.160 --> 0:58:38.880 Does that stark reality because I could argue that the 0:58:38.960 --> 0:58:42.600 last Democrat to win the White House without help from 0:58:42.600 --> 0:58:48.720 a poor economy was Kennedy? Does that stark reality mean 0:58:48.880 --> 0:58:54.560 that the Democrats should be less leaning into some cultural issues. 0:58:55.960 --> 0:58:58.760 I yeah, I think that's one hundred percent the case. 0:58:58.840 --> 0:59:02.600 I think that, you know, part of what some of 0:59:02.600 --> 0:59:04.760 the work that we've done here at Searchlights has shown 0:59:05.040 --> 0:59:08.760 is that, you know, it's not just that we are 0:59:08.760 --> 0:59:10.160 out of step with the public on a lot of 0:59:10.160 --> 0:59:12.600 these cultural issues purely on the merits, it's also that 0:59:12.720 --> 0:59:16.960 focusing on them distracts the public's attention from the economic issues. 0:59:16.960 --> 0:59:19.600 It's it's what we call a crowding out effect. Where 0:59:20.680 --> 0:59:22.840 you know, simply, you know, you listen to the average 0:59:22.840 --> 0:59:26.160 Democrats stump speech today, it's a laundry list, and they 0:59:26.280 --> 0:59:28.520 go down and they acknowledge every issue under the sun, 0:59:29.120 --> 0:59:29.600 you know, and. 0:59:29.560 --> 0:59:32.080 The land acknowledgment. And I say this, I'm not trying 0:59:32.080 --> 0:59:35.920 to be snarky about it, but I just that listen that. 0:59:36.320 --> 0:59:39.080 You know, the DNC's most recent meetings started out with 0:59:39.160 --> 0:59:41.560 one and so I think, you know, look, Republicans will 0:59:41.560 --> 0:59:43.440 seize on that, and they'll attack you for it, you know, 0:59:43.560 --> 0:59:45.320 but you don't have to give them so much, ammo, 0:59:45.760 --> 0:59:47.880 and we and we do that all the time. And 0:59:48.320 --> 0:59:50.840 so then you know, it is not it is not 0:59:51.120 --> 0:59:53.360 inaccurate for a voter to fike to themselves. 0:59:53.440 --> 0:59:53.640 Hmm. 0:59:54.200 --> 0:59:58.600 This Democrat seems more focused on these cultural issues that 0:59:58.840 --> 1:00:00.920 prior I don't agree with. But yeah, so where is 1:00:00.920 --> 1:00:02.760 your economics? You know What's really interesting, though, Chuck, is 1:00:02.800 --> 1:00:05.600 somebody who did an incredible job of avoiding that crowding 1:00:05.600 --> 1:00:10.120 out effect was Zoron Mamdani. We went through and we 1:00:10.240 --> 1:00:13.600 analyzed his paid media and you know, you do a 1:00:13.600 --> 1:00:16.400 word cloud based on the analysis, and in you know, 1:00:16.600 --> 1:00:20.320 words like affordable rent, freeze, billionaires like all those words 1:00:20.320 --> 1:00:22.680 were huge in the cloud. You literally could not find 1:00:22.680 --> 1:00:26.840 the words climate change or LGBTQ issues didn't appear in 1:00:26.840 --> 1:00:30.600 the cloud because didn't appear in the cloud either. He 1:00:30.800 --> 1:00:33.160 chose not to talk about it, you know, and and 1:00:33.240 --> 1:00:36.000 so he became sort of almost like, you know, a 1:00:36.080 --> 1:00:37.520 joke by the end of the campaign that he could 1:00:37.520 --> 1:00:41.560 take any conversation and steer it back towards affordability. Right, 1:00:41.880 --> 1:00:44.320 So that kind of message. And of course Zorn cares 1:00:44.320 --> 1:00:47.000 about climate change. Of course he cares about LGBTQ rights. 1:00:47.000 --> 1:00:48.720 You know, He's not throwing those causes under the bus. 1:00:48.880 --> 1:00:53.400 He's making a conscious decision to focus his campaign relentlessly 1:00:53.840 --> 1:00:56.400 on kitchen table issues. So you know, I wouldn't take 1:00:56.440 --> 1:00:58.440 all of his ideological positions and try to apply them 1:00:58.440 --> 1:01:01.480 in other states, but I certainly would take that discipline 1:01:01.560 --> 1:01:05.120 practice and avoiding crowding out that he demonstrated as a 1:01:05.360 --> 1:01:08.000 lesson that can be universalizable in other places. 1:01:08.560 --> 1:01:12.120 So, look, we're taping just to timestamp this on a Wednesday, 1:01:12.600 --> 1:01:16.280 November twelve, where the government is in the process of 1:01:16.320 --> 1:01:21.400 being reopened. Perhaps the release of the Epstein emails has 1:01:21.480 --> 1:01:26.080 distracted the left's anger at the at Schumer and the 1:01:26.520 --> 1:01:29.720 Democratic senators that chose to put a pause in this 1:01:30.000 --> 1:01:32.520 in this debate. And I call it a pause because 1:01:32.520 --> 1:01:36.600 I I'll just be I think a better messenger. You know, 1:01:36.640 --> 1:01:38.560 I think you and I both know Bill Clinton would 1:01:38.560 --> 1:01:41.080 have been able to say, we're going to feed people, 1:01:41.920 --> 1:01:44.080 We're going to let you get to grandma, and we're 1:01:44.120 --> 1:01:45.960 going to make sure grandma comes home to you to 1:01:46.080 --> 1:01:49.480 this holidays. We haven't given We're we're not giving up 1:01:49.480 --> 1:01:52.080 this fight on healthcare. And in fact, we've got more 1:01:52.120 --> 1:01:54.680 people focused on it than ever. We've got them super 1:01:54.720 --> 1:01:57.360 nervous about it. But yeah, we're going to reopen the government, 1:01:57.400 --> 1:01:59.120 and this is why we're going to reopen the government. 1:01:59.240 --> 1:02:01.200 But it's only for the next and they they're on 1:02:01.240 --> 1:02:03.640 the clock and they have sixty five days. Why was 1:02:03.680 --> 1:02:06.400 that not an effective way to sell the reopening of 1:02:06.400 --> 1:02:07.000 this government. 1:02:07.360 --> 1:02:09.960 I think expectations got completely out of whack, you know, 1:02:10.000 --> 1:02:12.720 And this is this is a responsibility of leadership, you know, Frankly, 1:02:12.880 --> 1:02:16.800 is that you know the idea Republicans were never going 1:02:16.840 --> 1:02:19.320 to give Democrats a full year extension of the subsidies. 1:02:19.440 --> 1:02:20.600 You know, this was just not. 1:02:20.840 --> 1:02:23.479 Without a fight. I mean, they still might. I still 1:02:23.480 --> 1:02:26.120 think there will be. My theory is it won't be 1:02:26.120 --> 1:02:28.680 a majority of Republicans that do it, but that there's 1:02:28.720 --> 1:02:30.320 going to be enough to force the issue. 1:02:30.400 --> 1:02:32.040 Well, I think that's right. I mean, I think as 1:02:32.080 --> 1:02:34.720 the political pain takes hold, you know, that's that's probably 1:02:34.720 --> 1:02:38.200 the case. But you know that's got to have You 1:02:38.280 --> 1:02:40.120 got to give that time to breathe and give that 1:02:40.120 --> 1:02:42.160 time for people to start feeling that. You know, I 1:02:42.200 --> 1:02:44.400 don't want them to feel the pain, but because of 1:02:44.440 --> 1:02:48.520 the Republicans policy choices, they're going to. So I think, look, 1:02:48.560 --> 1:02:53.320 you know, I mean the problem with being a congressional 1:02:53.360 --> 1:02:56.840 leader is that the skills that help you get that 1:02:57.040 --> 1:03:01.280 job aren't always the same skills that make you good 1:03:01.320 --> 1:03:04.280 at communicating with the public, you know, And so it 1:03:04.320 --> 1:03:06.960 is a very inside baseball job. It is about. You know, 1:03:07.480 --> 1:03:08.080 you worked for. 1:03:08.040 --> 1:03:10.280 A senator who was really good behind the scenes, and 1:03:10.320 --> 1:03:12.680 he was was the best community care Let's. 1:03:12.760 --> 1:03:15.320 You'd be the first to say it, you know, I 1:03:15.360 --> 1:03:15.880 mean it was. 1:03:17.920 --> 1:03:21.240 I I say this, I love talking to him. Right 1:03:21.360 --> 1:03:24.800 the minute it was on the record, his everything changed 1:03:24.800 --> 1:03:25.080 about it. 1:03:25.200 --> 1:03:26.960 Well, he didn't care, you know. I mean that's the 1:03:27.040 --> 1:03:29.000 other thing is that he didn't care that he didn't 1:03:29.040 --> 1:03:33.720 have a you know, a you know, flowery SoundBite. You know, 1:03:33.840 --> 1:03:35.480 he would give you exactly what he wanted to say. 1:03:35.520 --> 1:03:39.120 He'd say it very quietly, you know. Uh, And and 1:03:39.120 --> 1:03:42.200 that was it because he had the confidence of knowing 1:03:42.200 --> 1:03:43.760 that he you know, he thought through the strategy that 1:03:43.800 --> 1:03:45.960 he had the caucus behind him. So it's always been 1:03:46.000 --> 1:03:48.080 the case. I mean, Nancy Pelosi was an incredible leader, 1:03:48.120 --> 1:03:51.480 but was also you know, a huge target of Republican attacks, right, 1:03:51.520 --> 1:03:53.760 so he wasn't the best communicator. That's that's right, And 1:03:53.800 --> 1:03:58.040 it's it's a difficult combination of skills, you know, and 1:03:58.160 --> 1:04:02.120 especially today in a medium vironment that prioritizes or that 1:04:02.240 --> 1:04:04.920 you know, where the ability to communicate across mediums, to 1:04:04.960 --> 1:04:07.600 be natural on camera, to be quick with the quip, 1:04:07.960 --> 1:04:10.800 you know. It's so that's just something that is evolving 1:04:10.920 --> 1:04:13.000 and we're going to have to figure that out as 1:04:13.080 --> 1:04:15.640 as the caucus decides, you know, what's the right mix 1:04:15.720 --> 1:04:17.080 they want to see in the next leader. 1:04:17.560 --> 1:04:22.840 So it's funny, it's it's one of these cases where 1:04:24.240 --> 1:04:27.560 it's Schumer's fault that this is being misinterpreted, whether it's 1:04:27.720 --> 1:04:30.000 you know, it's this is not. It's not as much 1:04:30.000 --> 1:04:33.360 about the tactics, it's more about how he communicated. 1:04:34.760 --> 1:04:37.360 I think there's a there's a communication aspect, but there's 1:04:37.360 --> 1:04:39.520 also a decision making aspect to this too, which is 1:04:39.520 --> 1:04:43.000 that at some there was never really an end game here, right, 1:04:43.240 --> 1:04:44.680 and at some point. 1:04:44.920 --> 1:04:47.600 And every shutdown ends almost exactly how this shutdown is 1:04:47.600 --> 1:04:51.880 exactly the same. Whether right, you don't get what. 1:04:51.800 --> 1:04:54.360 You want, you never get literally never in the history 1:04:54.360 --> 1:04:56.840 of shutdowns has the side that is demanding a major 1:04:56.880 --> 1:05:01.480 policy concession gotten that concession. Right, just doesn't happen. And so, 1:05:02.480 --> 1:05:04.280 you know, a the decision to do in the first place, 1:05:04.320 --> 1:05:06.840 I think probably that was inevitable, especially after one in 1:05:06.880 --> 1:05:08.920 the spring. The caucus just wasn't You. 1:05:08.920 --> 1:05:11.120 Could feel it. It's like letting steam out of about 1:05:11.200 --> 1:05:14.720 you kind of had it, and they found the issue, right, 1:05:14.840 --> 1:05:17.400 that's right. I look, the reality is this was a 1:05:17.440 --> 1:05:20.200 shutdown in search of a rationale and they found a rassial. 1:05:20.120 --> 1:05:23.160 Yeah it was, And they succeeded in elevating the conversation 1:05:23.160 --> 1:05:26.040 about healthcare they have not succeeded up to this point 1:05:26.240 --> 1:05:29.400 and being able to drive a consistent, clear message about healthcare. 1:05:29.680 --> 1:05:33.200 So they did that Trump's numbers came down significantly, whether 1:05:33.400 --> 1:05:36.360 you know, that's a function of the healthcare conversation, you know, 1:05:36.440 --> 1:05:38.800 images of the east wing getting demolished, whatever it was, 1:05:39.360 --> 1:05:41.480 you know it. You know, part of the reason the 1:05:41.480 --> 1:05:44.520 east wing conversation was so salient was that we're in 1:05:44.560 --> 1:05:46.120 the middle of a shutdown and he's out here building 1:05:46.160 --> 1:05:48.360 a ballroom. You know. So they really did a great 1:05:48.440 --> 1:05:51.760 job driving a message, setting them on their terms. You know, 1:05:51.920 --> 1:05:53.280 I think a lot. I think a lot about the 1:05:53.320 --> 1:05:57.120 fall of twenty eleven, where Democrats came off a really 1:05:57.160 --> 1:05:59.520 tough summer, you know, coming off bad intermin in the 1:05:59.520 --> 1:06:02.400 first place, the whole debt ceiling, you know, debate in 1:06:02.440 --> 1:06:05.560 twenty eleven got our butts handed to us. But then 1:06:05.560 --> 1:06:08.080 we were able to fall to shift the conversation more 1:06:08.120 --> 1:06:11.680 towards our terms by shifting the focus to what we 1:06:11.760 --> 1:06:13.640 call the Jobs Act at the time, you know, which 1:06:13.680 --> 1:06:15.320 was just a bill we put together out of the 1:06:15.360 --> 1:06:19.080 most popular policies, was never really going to pass. But 1:06:19.160 --> 1:06:21.320 you know, President Obama did a speech to the Joint 1:06:21.320 --> 1:06:23.120 Session of Congress, you know, and we put that bill 1:06:23.160 --> 1:06:24.920 on the floor and made Republicans vote on it again 1:06:24.960 --> 1:06:28.240 and again and We didn't pass it, but it got 1:06:28.280 --> 1:06:30.800 us back on our front foot going into twenty twelve, 1:06:30.800 --> 1:06:32.920 and we were able to sort of take that momentum 1:06:32.960 --> 1:06:35.440 going into twenty twelve. So I hope that you know, 1:06:35.840 --> 1:06:38.240 the legitimate anger the Democrats are feeling right now because 1:06:38.280 --> 1:06:41.760 I think they were fed some false expectations. You know, 1:06:42.400 --> 1:06:44.439 we should be able to move on and say, look, 1:06:44.480 --> 1:06:47.240 we take the good here, which was driving the conversation 1:06:47.280 --> 1:06:49.920 about healthcare, getting the conversation back on our terms, and 1:06:49.960 --> 1:06:51.760 play that forward into the midterms. 1:06:52.240 --> 1:06:54.520 You know, it's interesting they hold THEMS in disarray, you know, 1:06:55.000 --> 1:06:58.160 the fund meme that gets put around, and I think 1:06:58.200 --> 1:07:00.560 about the fractures that were you know, you sort of 1:07:00.640 --> 1:07:03.760 it's like watching, you know, a fault line start to 1:07:04.160 --> 1:07:06.440 start to crack, and you see the the ones on 1:07:06.480 --> 1:07:07.919 the left, and you see the ones on the right. 1:07:08.800 --> 1:07:11.960 The divide on the left right now is not it's 1:07:12.200 --> 1:07:16.520 really just tactical. This is not. What's interesting is is 1:07:16.560 --> 1:07:19.840 you know, you you talked about the word cloud of 1:07:19.880 --> 1:07:22.400 mom Dannie. You probably could have applied that to Spamburger 1:07:22.880 --> 1:07:25.880 and and Cheryl right and and they both you know, 1:07:26.360 --> 1:07:30.280 as far as messaging, we're talking about the same issues 1:07:30.320 --> 1:07:32.760 they may have, they may have leaned in different ways, 1:07:32.760 --> 1:07:34.960 they may have talked to different constituencies, but they were 1:07:35.000 --> 1:07:38.480 always on the affordability message. So like, this is one 1:07:38.520 --> 1:07:41.400 of those cases where it's like democat, you guys are 1:07:41.400 --> 1:07:43.320 all rowing in the same direction and you still want to. 1:07:43.320 --> 1:07:47.440 Fight right like this we find it out like what's 1:07:47.440 --> 1:07:50.200 the line Jurassic Park? You know life, Life finds a way, right, 1:07:51.200 --> 1:07:53.160 Disarray finds a way with Democrats. 1:07:53.520 --> 1:07:55.560 But the big tact I always say, the biggest I 1:07:55.600 --> 1:07:57.800 think the biggest divide right now on the left is 1:07:59.000 --> 1:08:00.920 do you start to look pa Trump or do you 1:08:00.960 --> 1:08:04.400 continue to fight Trump? And I think it is an 1:08:04.440 --> 1:08:07.680 either or conversation, even though some might argue no, you've 1:08:07.680 --> 1:08:10.960 got to do both. There are entities that should be 1:08:11.000 --> 1:08:13.880 thinking about fighting Trump. Like that's what I expect my 1:08:13.960 --> 1:08:16.400 ACLU to do, and that's what I expect. You know, 1:08:17.120 --> 1:08:19.160 where the hell are the good trial lawyers around? Like, 1:08:19.400 --> 1:08:24.439 you know, ultimately I expect the courts to be doing that, right, 1:08:24.640 --> 1:08:27.639 I expect the elected officials to be thinking about, Okay, 1:08:28.040 --> 1:08:32.320 what's next? Right where I have a feeling I know 1:08:32.360 --> 1:08:35.599 where you are, but I assume you're on the side 1:08:35.640 --> 1:08:38.040 of it's about thinking of the post Trump. 1:08:38.040 --> 1:08:40.000 One hundred percent. I mean, that's why that's why I 1:08:40.040 --> 1:08:41.960 created Searchlight, you know, I mean, that is what we're 1:08:41.960 --> 1:08:44.280 trying to do here, is to craft a vision that 1:08:44.320 --> 1:08:47.800 will get people excited about the prospect of democratic governance again. 1:08:47.880 --> 1:08:50.719 And we're going to go big on how we're thinking 1:08:50.760 --> 1:08:52.920 about that. But I think you know, look, I think 1:08:52.960 --> 1:08:54.800 there's also a little bit of a difference between a 1:08:54.840 --> 1:08:58.360 mid term election and a presidential election. And so for me, 1:08:58.439 --> 1:09:01.160 my formative elections were two thousand and six in two 1:09:01.200 --> 1:09:04.840 thousand and eight, and Democrats did a good enough job 1:09:04.840 --> 1:09:08.320 in two thousand and six of putting forward a positive vision. 1:09:08.320 --> 1:09:10.920 They had this six roh six agenda that focused on 1:09:11.479 --> 1:09:13.559 you know, we were the original drain the swamp. I mean, 1:09:13.560 --> 1:09:17.320 we wanted after Mark Foley was a really salient issue 1:09:17.320 --> 1:09:20.000 that year, hugely salient. I mean, you know, so every 1:09:20.040 --> 1:09:23.840 opportunity to make corruption salient again. This year, we had 1:09:24.000 --> 1:09:30.240 ideas about you know, getting out of iraqs, minimum wage 1:09:30.760 --> 1:09:34.400 and ethics reform, and then you know that was and 1:09:34.439 --> 1:09:36.479 that was solid, right, I mean, because you have to 1:09:36.479 --> 1:09:39.120 have something that every Democrat in every corner of the 1:09:39.120 --> 1:09:40.320 country can can run on. 1:09:40.640 --> 1:09:42.599 And you guys are running in tough states. I mean 1:09:42.640 --> 1:09:46.760 think about six, I mean the six pickups to get 1:09:46.760 --> 1:09:49.760 they needed six Senate seat's less more than what it 1:09:49.880 --> 1:09:53.759 is for this cycle. And you had to win in Montana. Virginia. 1:09:53.840 --> 1:09:55.800 Was a big deal at the time because that was 1:09:55.800 --> 1:09:59.760 the tough tad of a sitting Republican senator that many 1:09:59.760 --> 1:10:03.120 thought was going to be a presidential candidate until he 1:10:03.240 --> 1:10:05.800 sort of his own words, got in, got him, got 1:10:05.880 --> 1:10:11.280 him in trouble, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Right, like, think of 1:10:11.360 --> 1:10:15.040 the the antenna that was Tester. Tester wins in six, 1:10:15.160 --> 1:10:19.760 mccaskell is in O six. You have Casey winning in Pennsylvania. 1:10:19.800 --> 1:10:23.800 You had Shared Brown in Ohio, Jim Webb. Look at 1:10:23.800 --> 1:10:26.160 all the people I'm describing all of them in the 1:10:26.200 --> 1:10:27.760 economic populist category. 1:10:27.600 --> 1:10:30.120 One hundred percent. Jim Webb was very culturally conservative on 1:10:30.160 --> 1:10:32.400 a lot of issues, but was was was a committed 1:10:32.400 --> 1:10:37.600 economic populist, you know, and John Tester, Claire mccaskell, you 1:10:37.600 --> 1:10:40.559 know the same. And I remember that was you know 1:10:40.640 --> 1:10:43.200 when when mccaskell won, you know, at his watch party, 1:10:43.240 --> 1:10:45.640 read got down and kissed, kissed the television because I 1:10:45.680 --> 1:10:46.840 think she was the one who put us over. Although 1:10:46.880 --> 1:10:48.639 actually think the Virginia election, I think. 1:10:48.800 --> 1:10:51.200 Because it was late counting. I was on the air 1:10:51.280 --> 1:10:54.760 for that, like literally called people about Fairfax County. How 1:10:54.840 --> 1:10:55.760 much more is coming in? 1:10:55.880 --> 1:10:59.120 Right? Yeah, But that's the thing is it was defied expectations. 1:10:59.200 --> 1:11:01.840 You know, the pundits did not expect us to take 1:11:02.000 --> 1:11:04.960 back the Senate. I think the House was expected, although 1:11:05.000 --> 1:11:07.000 I think the margin was higher than what people predicted, 1:11:07.800 --> 1:11:10.680 but the Senate was considered a reach at best. And 1:11:10.720 --> 1:11:12.880 so that's but that's where we find ourselves again here 1:11:12.960 --> 1:11:15.679 and so for me, the litmus test for success though 1:11:16.000 --> 1:11:18.000 in twenty twenty six really should be do we take 1:11:18.040 --> 1:11:21.479 back the Senate? Because you have to push yourself through there? Yeah, 1:11:22.120 --> 1:11:24.200 because look in the cycles where the you know, the 1:11:24.240 --> 1:11:26.799 cycles are, you know, a lot of it is determined 1:11:26.800 --> 1:11:29.960 by the fundamentals. The Senate is a gnarly beast because 1:11:30.000 --> 1:11:32.679 you only it's resistant to big swings because you only 1:11:32.680 --> 1:11:34.760 have a third of the chamber up for reelection at 1:11:34.800 --> 1:11:38.120 any election, whereas you know, everybody in the House is 1:11:38.200 --> 1:11:40.680 every seat in the House is up. So what you've 1:11:40.720 --> 1:11:42.559 got to do is you really got to maximize your 1:11:42.600 --> 1:11:45.519 gains in the cycles where the fundamentals are in your favor, 1:11:46.479 --> 1:11:49.760 and for us, that maximizing our gains would would look like, 1:11:50.160 --> 1:11:52.160 you know, winning holding all the seats where we have 1:11:52.240 --> 1:11:55.400 incumbents up and then winning you know, all of the 1:11:55.400 --> 1:11:58.320 swing states and then throwing in someones that are reaches 1:11:58.360 --> 1:11:58.920 for us, like. 1:11:58.920 --> 1:12:00.800 Yeah, I mean I look at the you know the path, 1:12:00.880 --> 1:12:02.880 I mean, you know, North Carolina, Maine or quick and 1:12:02.920 --> 1:12:06.040 then you start going, oh boy, okay, you need Ohio 1:12:06.080 --> 1:12:09.280 to come in again, you probably need one of the 1:12:09.320 --> 1:12:13.800 following and then you need one of the following three Alaska, Iowa, Texas, right, 1:12:13.840 --> 1:12:15.639 and then you don't want to be you know, then 1:12:15.640 --> 1:12:18.360 you got to sort of probably throwing a couple others 1:12:18.400 --> 1:12:21.400 like you did that six for oh six. There were 1:12:21.400 --> 1:12:24.559 two other races that were top tier races in that 1:12:24.640 --> 1:12:27.240 last month of the campaign. One was Harold Fords Tennessee 1:12:27.320 --> 1:12:31.080 race against that that was a Ford corker, was a 1:12:31.120 --> 1:12:33.599 competitive race. And then you had I think Jim Peterson 1:12:33.600 --> 1:12:36.080 in Arizona. If I remember that, Kyle, that's. 1:12:36.000 --> 1:12:37.599 Right, And I mean you look you know, so yeah, 1:12:37.640 --> 1:12:42.880 you know, we look, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska. We have held 1:12:42.920 --> 1:12:45.439 Senate seats in all three of those states. Within the 1:12:45.479 --> 1:12:48.240 last ten years, we should be able to win there again. 1:12:48.680 --> 1:12:50.320 And then yeah, you've got it. You've got to reach 1:12:50.720 --> 1:12:53.439 in a place like Texas. That's how you put together 1:12:53.520 --> 1:12:56.519 Senate majorities, you know. And what's crazy is that even. 1:12:56.320 --> 1:12:58.840 That argued Kansas and Mississippi to be on the mat 1:13:00.200 --> 1:13:04.280 You look at those two, they're both there are what 1:13:04.320 --> 1:13:07.559 I call green shoots for Democrats in both of those states, 1:13:07.600 --> 1:13:09.599 but they need some work, Like you've got to actually 1:13:09.720 --> 1:13:10.360 tend that guard. 1:13:10.479 --> 1:13:12.680 Ye had a democratic government, Cathleen's we have currently have 1:13:12.720 --> 1:13:15.400 a democratic governor, you know. I mean, the Democrats can 1:13:15.439 --> 1:13:16.280 win in these states. 1:13:16.560 --> 1:13:19.000 Sixteen to the last twenty four years in Kansas has 1:13:19.000 --> 1:13:20.080 been that's right, that's right. 1:13:20.560 --> 1:13:22.720 Talk about economic populism. I mean, that's the home of 1:13:22.760 --> 1:13:29.639 prairie populism. And yeah, exactly. And so it's really a choice, 1:13:29.680 --> 1:13:33.400 you know. I mean, Democrats can simply choose tomorrow to 1:13:33.520 --> 1:13:36.719 start running on a mix of issues that can appeal 1:13:36.760 --> 1:13:39.760 to folks in those states, the way that Trump just 1:13:39.760 --> 1:13:43.080 simply decided to throw core tenants of Republican orthodoxy out 1:13:43.160 --> 1:13:46.400 out the window. And you know, again that doesn't mean 1:13:46.439 --> 1:13:48.519 that the entire party has to shift its position on 1:13:48.520 --> 1:13:50.720 some of these cultural issues. It just means we have 1:13:50.800 --> 1:13:53.920 to embrace people who are going to have different views 1:13:53.920 --> 1:13:56.880 than us because they're the only ones who can win 1:13:56.920 --> 1:13:57.680 in states like that. 1:13:58.400 --> 1:14:03.679 How do you think the unofficial presidential campaign presidential candidates 1:14:03.720 --> 1:14:06.400 are doing right now in moving message? Because I look 1:14:06.439 --> 1:14:08.519 at a guy like Gavin Newsom, who, on one hand, 1:14:08.560 --> 1:14:12.000 it's impressive to me how much the bases embraced him 1:14:12.000 --> 1:14:14.439 and that they love the fact that he's fighting. But 1:14:14.479 --> 1:14:17.879 at the end of the day, he's introduced himself as 1:14:18.560 --> 1:14:20.639 one of the great d n C chairs of all time, 1:14:20.920 --> 1:14:23.679 right like he is, meaning like he's attacked, he's he's 1:14:23.760 --> 1:14:28.439 he's winning on tactics. It's not as if there's some 1:14:28.479 --> 1:14:33.880 great policy proposal that is just taking the world by storm. 1:14:34.360 --> 1:14:37.600 So I'm a skeptic that this holds for him right that, 1:14:37.920 --> 1:14:41.160 because this is a process moment. Let's a policy moment. 1:14:41.720 --> 1:14:44.120 But in general, how would you you know I had Bashir, 1:14:44.240 --> 1:14:47.080 I've done, interviewed Pher, I've seen we've got the rom 1:14:47.120 --> 1:14:50.120 stump speech. I've got to be interviewing by the time 1:14:50.160 --> 1:14:53.080 this hits well, I've interviewed Wes Moore at Texas the 1:14:53.120 --> 1:14:57.120 Texas Tribune Festival. What what do you think so far 1:14:57.280 --> 1:14:59.080 of the of the field and how they've tried to 1:14:59.080 --> 1:15:01.280 communicate about twenty. 1:15:01.080 --> 1:15:03.000 Eight Yeah, I mean we are we are a wash 1:15:03.240 --> 1:15:06.160 in raw talent, and it's it's gonna take. But I 1:15:06.160 --> 1:15:10.600 think there's still very powerful forces pushing our candidates to 1:15:10.680 --> 1:15:14.080 stay firmly inside that liberal box, you know. And so 1:15:15.200 --> 1:15:17.360 and it is true that the sort of there's gonna 1:15:17.360 --> 1:15:19.280 be sort of a you're gonna have to marry two 1:15:19.360 --> 1:15:22.920 things together, I think to get the right candidate here, 1:15:22.960 --> 1:15:26.599 and that's marrying the aggressive, you know, taking the fight 1:15:26.680 --> 1:15:30.599 to Trump and the Republicans, that pugnacity that you see 1:15:30.600 --> 1:15:33.400 in someone like Gavin Newsom, that's why he's he's sort 1:15:33.400 --> 1:15:36.360 of risen to the top of the conversation in a 1:15:36.400 --> 1:15:38.880 lot of places. But you're gonna have to marry that 1:15:38.920 --> 1:15:42.559 pugnacity with an issue mix that can appeal to a 1:15:42.600 --> 1:15:47.120 broad swath of Americans. And so right now, you know, 1:15:47.160 --> 1:15:49.000 I think there's some more of sort of tinkering around 1:15:49.000 --> 1:15:52.000 the edges there. You know, you look at at a 1:15:52.040 --> 1:15:54.799 Josh Shapiro, who is who's sort of you know, defying 1:15:55.120 --> 1:15:57.800 the left wing of the party on some issues. But 1:15:58.960 --> 1:16:01.599 I think I think we're gonna need somebody to go further, 1:16:01.800 --> 1:16:04.120 you know, if we're going to talk about a supermajority, 1:16:04.160 --> 1:16:06.640 and I you know, look, you could eke buy. You know, 1:16:06.760 --> 1:16:09.200 in a polarized nation, every election's a coin flip, right, 1:16:09.280 --> 1:16:10.960 you could you could get to seventy. You may even 1:16:11.000 --> 1:16:13.479 get to fifty in the Senate. But but that is 1:16:13.520 --> 1:16:15.840 a recipe for you know, whiplash. 1:16:16.320 --> 1:16:19.280 Biden didn't get to govern very well, didn't He had 1:16:19.320 --> 1:16:22.080 all three, but he barely had all He barely had 1:16:22.080 --> 1:16:23.080 the trifecta. 1:16:24.240 --> 1:16:25.439 You lose it, you probably lose. 1:16:25.600 --> 1:16:27.400 I think we could have the trifecta. Yeah, I think 1:16:27.439 --> 1:16:30.040 I managed it. From the White House perspective. 1:16:29.800 --> 1:16:32.479 I agree. And I think even if you're lucky to 1:16:32.479 --> 1:16:35.759 have the trifecta, you probably lose it in the first midterm, 1:16:36.000 --> 1:16:38.400 you know, and then and then you're stuck. And so 1:16:38.600 --> 1:16:41.200 I think, you know, what I see as a super 1:16:41.240 --> 1:16:44.599 majority is having a durable governing majority that sustains itself 1:16:44.600 --> 1:16:46.960 at least through a few election cycles, that you can 1:16:47.000 --> 1:16:50.599 actually pass a robust agenda. Most of what Biden has 1:16:50.640 --> 1:16:53.760 passed has already been undone with Republicans. But this has 1:16:53.760 --> 1:16:57.920 already been undone by Republicans, you know it. At best, 1:16:57.680 --> 1:17:02.599 your accomplishments are extremely fragile. They don't last, they're quickly repealed, 1:17:02.960 --> 1:17:04.200 and then the other side comes in and does the 1:17:04.240 --> 1:17:05.960 same thing, and then we're stuck in this this back 1:17:06.000 --> 1:17:09.080 and forth. So I think that the time is right 1:17:09.200 --> 1:17:12.000 right now for one side or the other to craft 1:17:12.080 --> 1:17:15.360 the supermajority appeal that can actually build a governing coalition 1:17:15.439 --> 1:17:17.920 that can sustain you in power. You know, beyond just 1:17:18.080 --> 1:17:19.599 one one two year period. 1:17:26.479 --> 1:17:30.200 Do you worry about a insurgent third party or independent? 1:17:30.439 --> 1:17:32.160 And do you worry that? You know, I look at 1:17:32.160 --> 1:17:35.360 it as somebody who's always dabbled, And my first professional 1:17:35.479 --> 1:17:38.080 year covering politics was the year of rouss Perrot, So 1:17:38.640 --> 1:17:40.720 you know, when you get introduced to politics that way, 1:17:40.760 --> 1:17:42.760 and how crazy it shook up the map and it 1:17:42.800 --> 1:17:46.360 shook up ideologies and it really I've always thought that 1:17:46.400 --> 1:17:51.240 the Paro Paro's third party candidacy was extraordinarily successful because 1:17:51.240 --> 1:17:53.920 he made both parties change who they were, you know, 1:17:53.960 --> 1:17:56.320 he made the Democrats a bit more sensitive on fiscal issues, 1:17:56.360 --> 1:17:59.120 made the Republicans a bit more sensitive on trade issues. Hey, 1:17:59.160 --> 1:18:02.320 that's that's to me, that's an accomplishment, right. That was 1:18:02.400 --> 1:18:05.519 in theory originally why ross Pero got it right, he 1:18:05.600 --> 1:18:07.559 was trying. He thought, Hey, these guys don't know what 1:18:07.920 --> 1:18:13.360 any in those two issues. He accomplished a lot. We're 1:18:13.360 --> 1:18:15.519 in a moment. There is a vacuum, right, you see, 1:18:16.240 --> 1:18:18.920 sometimes it's simply a vacuum in a place like Nebraska, 1:18:19.040 --> 1:18:22.080 South Dakota, or Idaho. And I single those guys out 1:18:22.080 --> 1:18:23.760 because I've interviewed all of them. There. There are a 1:18:23.760 --> 1:18:27.559 bunch of really strong candidates running as economic populists who've 1:18:27.600 --> 1:18:31.880 chosen to run as independence instead of Democrats, and they 1:18:32.040 --> 1:18:34.400 just simply all. I had two of them on together 1:18:34.439 --> 1:18:36.280 and they said, it's simply so they can have a 1:18:36.320 --> 1:18:39.320 conversation with local voters, like they agree with the agenda. 1:18:39.439 --> 1:18:41.320 But if the minute they find out they're a Democrat, 1:18:41.360 --> 1:18:43.080 then they don't want to like they won't. It's like 1:18:43.120 --> 1:18:45.920 they close their ears, so they're trying to open their ears. 1:18:46.200 --> 1:18:48.240 Do you worry that there's a vacuum out there that 1:18:49.080 --> 1:18:51.280 can be filled by a non democratic entity? 1:18:51.560 --> 1:18:54.240 Oh, I one hundred percent worry that there's a vacuum, 1:18:54.240 --> 1:18:56.720 and I think it's incumbent on the party to close it, 1:18:56.800 --> 1:18:59.040 you know, and if they don't do that, then yeah, 1:18:59.040 --> 1:19:01.599 they leave themselves very It is a it's a regular, 1:19:01.720 --> 1:19:03.680 you know, not a not every election, but you know, 1:19:03.760 --> 1:19:06.559 every once a generation or so, an independent candidate comes 1:19:06.560 --> 1:19:10.080 along and identifies the sort of the ways in which 1:19:10.320 --> 1:19:12.400 neither side is meeting the demands of the American people. 1:19:12.680 --> 1:19:15.800 Nineteen sixty eight, George Wallace, You know, he did, and 1:19:15.800 --> 1:19:18.200 that caused you Nixon was sort of running on a 1:19:18.280 --> 1:19:20.040 light southern strategy in sixty eight and. 1:19:20.040 --> 1:19:24.240 Then probably wins by a bigger margin without Wallace, I think, right, 1:19:24.240 --> 1:19:27.000 but I don't think that's yeah, that's probably that's probably right. 1:19:27.080 --> 1:19:28.600 But then he sort of, you know, just I mean this, 1:19:28.720 --> 1:19:30.519 I don't see this is a good thing being a liberal. 1:19:30.560 --> 1:19:33.200 But then he know, decided to close off that that. 1:19:33.200 --> 1:19:34.720 He didn't let that, but he wasn't going to let 1:19:34.720 --> 1:19:36.679 that happen to him a second time exactly. 1:19:36.720 --> 1:19:39.320 And then Reagan sort of refined that approached and you know, so, 1:19:39.360 --> 1:19:41.519 I mean, I think I think that, you know, it's 1:19:41.520 --> 1:19:44.000 it's sort of a market feature of if if neither 1:19:44.080 --> 1:19:47.120 side is meeting the demand then you know someone's going 1:19:47.160 --> 1:19:50.320 to step in. They won't win, I don't think, but 1:19:50.560 --> 1:19:54.040 they can certainly, you know, cause Democrats to lose. And 1:19:54.080 --> 1:19:56.439 so it really is incumbent on Democrats to take it 1:19:56.520 --> 1:19:59.720 upon themselves to craft a broader appeal to sort of 1:19:59.720 --> 1:20:03.320 pre the possibility of getting, you know, having an end 1:20:03.360 --> 1:20:05.040 run around them by an independent candidate. 1:20:05.360 --> 1:20:07.920 Yeah, let's talk about the Senate. You wrote a book 1:20:07.960 --> 1:20:14.519 about it, you know, and and the filibuster. You know, 1:20:14.720 --> 1:20:17.320 one of the things the philibuster that I always want 1:20:17.360 --> 1:20:19.840 to take a little time to educate people. It is 1:20:19.880 --> 1:20:23.720 not in the constitution. The philibuster is a choice, right, 1:20:23.760 --> 1:20:31.880 its Senate rules, right, that's right. There is the mythology 1:20:31.960 --> 1:20:34.920 that you know I grew up with, certainly was mister Smith, right, 1:20:35.040 --> 1:20:39.640 the famous Jimmy Stewart movie of the fifties, and it 1:20:39.760 --> 1:20:43.559 sort of celebrated the idea that one senator can sort 1:20:43.600 --> 1:20:47.880 of stand up. So give me the ideal. What's your 1:20:47.920 --> 1:20:51.840 ideal of I assume you still embrace the ideal that 1:20:51.880 --> 1:20:54.559 a a senator should feel as if that they can 1:20:54.680 --> 1:20:58.080 do that if they so choose to. How should that 1:20:58.160 --> 1:21:00.439 work and how should we be using it as a 1:21:00.439 --> 1:21:01.639 governing tool in your mind. 1:21:01.880 --> 1:21:04.360 Yeah, exactly. That. That's the thing is that people think 1:21:04.400 --> 1:21:06.240 when they think of the filibuster, if they think about 1:21:06.280 --> 1:21:08.639 it at all, they think of they think of Jimmy Stewart, right, 1:21:10.000 --> 1:21:10.920 But that's not how it works. 1:21:10.920 --> 1:21:13.759 I don't. I'm hopeful actually that most of the people 1:21:13.880 --> 1:21:17.040 that are listening to this podcast are younger than I 1:21:17.080 --> 1:21:19.320 am and probably are like, who the hell is Jimmy Stewart. 1:21:19.360 --> 1:21:21.760 Yeah that's true, but but I think that. But still, 1:21:21.800 --> 1:21:23.920 the idea of, you know, of somebody standing up and 1:21:23.960 --> 1:21:28.000 talking is what people think of, right, And that's just 1:21:28.000 --> 1:21:30.360 not how it works anymore. You know. What's happened is 1:21:30.360 --> 1:21:33.960 it's become a sort of a quiet, you know, passive filibuster, 1:21:34.479 --> 1:21:37.839 where any veto it's pocket veto. I mean you literally 1:21:37.840 --> 1:21:40.639 have your staff call the cloak room and say I object. 1:21:41.000 --> 1:21:42.840 You know, that's it, and nobody has to do to 1:21:42.880 --> 1:21:44.320 show up to the floor. They don't have to say 1:21:44.320 --> 1:21:48.000 a word. And then that automatically raises the threshold for 1:21:48.360 --> 1:21:50.720 procedural reasons that will borrow your readers to tears to 1:21:50.800 --> 1:21:53.160 sixty votes. And I think what's important to understand is 1:21:53.200 --> 1:21:56.080 that you know, according for the first two hundred years 1:21:56.080 --> 1:21:57.720 of its existence, from the from the time it was 1:21:57.760 --> 1:22:00.680 conceived of the Framers until you know, about century in 1:22:00.720 --> 1:22:03.360 the twentieth century, the Senate was a majority rule institution. 1:22:03.880 --> 1:22:06.200 It was it was intended to be that way, and 1:22:06.240 --> 1:22:08.920 the Framers, it wasn't an accident. They thought very hard 1:22:09.400 --> 1:22:12.240 about whether there should be a super majority requirement in 1:22:12.320 --> 1:22:15.200 Senate rules, and they decided against it. And the reason 1:22:15.200 --> 1:22:17.559 they decided against it was because they had just had 1:22:17.600 --> 1:22:20.439 experience with the Articles of Confederation, where there was a 1:22:20.439 --> 1:22:23.559 super majority threshold in the legislature, and they put it there, 1:22:23.680 --> 1:22:26.520 you know, on the theory that it would promote compromising consensus, 1:22:27.080 --> 1:22:29.640 when what happened in reality was that it empowered a 1:22:29.680 --> 1:22:32.400 minority to be obstructionist and to grind things to the 1:22:32.400 --> 1:22:34.000 halt when they didn't get their way. And so the 1:22:34.040 --> 1:22:37.040 Framers saw that happen and said, okay, well, we're not 1:22:37.080 --> 1:22:39.479 doing that, you know, And so they designed the Senate 1:22:39.520 --> 1:22:41.759 to be different from the House in lots of other ways, 1:22:42.040 --> 1:22:45.800 by giving every state equal representation, by having senators serve 1:22:45.840 --> 1:22:47.439 for six year terms so they can be a little 1:22:47.479 --> 1:22:50.639 bit less responsive to the whims of the moment staggering 1:22:50.640 --> 1:22:52.960 those elections, like we talked about, you know, basically sort 1:22:52.960 --> 1:22:56.080 of building in things that made it a more deliberate institution. 1:22:57.400 --> 1:22:59.120 But they were, and they wrote about it in the 1:22:59.120 --> 1:23:01.519 Federals papers. They debated the Concerts Convention. They said, we 1:23:01.560 --> 1:23:05.080 are not putting in a majority a super majority threshold, 1:23:05.960 --> 1:23:08.640 because that would allow and they said explicitly, because that 1:23:08.640 --> 1:23:11.240 would allow a minority to obstruct, you know, when they 1:23:11.280 --> 1:23:14.120 didn't get their way. And so that's the that's the 1:23:14.120 --> 1:23:16.759 difference in the filibuster is that there should be unlimited debate. 1:23:16.920 --> 1:23:20.000 You should have the opportunity to stand and say your piece, 1:23:20.320 --> 1:23:22.760 to join with other colleagues to keep a filibuster going 1:23:22.840 --> 1:23:25.360 indefinitely if you want to. But you should have to 1:23:25.360 --> 1:23:27.160 put in the work. You know, you should not be 1:23:27.160 --> 1:23:29.160 able to do it passively. Why is it so hard 1:23:29.200 --> 1:23:34.080 to sell, to sell that bipartisanly? That to me seems 1:23:34.160 --> 1:23:37.720 the proper use of the filibuster. I agree, you know, 1:23:37.840 --> 1:23:40.799 it's it's it's it's just the sort of the proverb 1:23:40.840 --> 1:23:43.200 of the frog being boiled in water, where you know, 1:23:43.240 --> 1:23:46.479 the Senate never decided to have it be the way 1:23:46.520 --> 1:23:50.160 it is. It was a passive accumulation of one norm 1:23:50.200 --> 1:23:53.959 being laid on another in layered form over several decades, 1:23:54.200 --> 1:23:57.080 where basically when you're in the minority, you find this 1:23:57.160 --> 1:23:59.920 thing to be useful. But came up with the filibuster 1:24:00.040 --> 1:24:03.400 happened what sometime after direct election of senators. Yeah, well 1:24:03.439 --> 1:24:07.599 so in nineteen seventeen they when seventy of the amendment, right, 1:24:08.200 --> 1:24:10.200 So when direct election happened, it was around the same 1:24:10.240 --> 1:24:12.759 time during the progressive era. You know, there was this idea. 1:24:13.000 --> 1:24:15.719 But what's really interesting about it is that the rule 1:24:15.920 --> 1:24:20.280 that today gets used to cause the super majority threshold 1:24:20.880 --> 1:24:24.280 was originally put in place to end filibusters. 1:24:24.560 --> 1:24:28.479 It's I don't want to get yeah, it's like it's 1:24:28.520 --> 1:24:30.920 like you're describing one of my favorite things. You know, 1:24:31.120 --> 1:24:34.280 a reform in one era turns into it a problem 1:24:34.280 --> 1:24:37.920 in another. You know, the seniority system was actually instituted 1:24:37.960 --> 1:24:40.200 in the House at the turn of the last century 1:24:40.680 --> 1:24:44.479 because there were so many cronies that a speaker would 1:24:44.479 --> 1:24:46.479 put into place, and they said, well, we can't have that. 1:24:46.800 --> 1:24:50.840 So the seniority system was actually a reform that's right, 1:24:50.880 --> 1:24:52.800 to improve representation. 1:24:52.840 --> 1:24:54.760 So the super majority rule was, you know, put in 1:24:54.800 --> 1:24:57.080 place because if you had a talking filibuster that was 1:24:57.120 --> 1:25:00.800 going on for way too long, right you You said, okay, fine, 1:25:00.800 --> 1:25:03.639 you know what, We'll give you a tool to bring 1:25:03.680 --> 1:25:06.599 that to an end. And that's if you know sixty 1:25:06.640 --> 1:25:08.400 at the time it was three fits. It was three 1:25:08.479 --> 1:25:11.519 thirds or something, or at the time it was two thirds. 1:25:11.560 --> 1:25:13.760 Now it's three fits. But they said, look, if three 1:25:13.760 --> 1:25:17.080 fitts of the Senate can decide that, you know, mister 1:25:17.120 --> 1:25:20.200 Smith has talked too long, you know, presumably that's bringing 1:25:20.240 --> 1:25:22.879 people together from both sides of the whatever issues being debated, 1:25:23.160 --> 1:25:25.320 you can sort of say, okay, that's enough guy. Even 1:25:25.320 --> 1:25:26.920 then you still have like thirty hours, so you know, 1:25:26.960 --> 1:25:30.120 in true Senate fashion, it wasn't moving that precipitously. But 1:25:30.120 --> 1:25:31.439 but that was supposed to be able to say, okay, 1:25:31.439 --> 1:25:33.960 that's gone on long enough, let's let's let's end it. 1:25:34.040 --> 1:25:36.839 Let's move to a vote. Now what happens is because 1:25:36.840 --> 1:25:39.400 of the ease of implementing the filibuster, because you don't 1:25:39.400 --> 1:25:41.000 have to go to the floor and you can just 1:25:41.040 --> 1:25:43.599 have your staff call the cloakroom. That's all it takes 1:25:43.600 --> 1:25:46.760 to do a filibuster. So there's no there's no you're 1:25:46.800 --> 1:25:49.760 not putting any onus on the person blocking, but that 1:25:49.960 --> 1:25:53.680 simple act of calling the cloakroom triggers that super majority requirement. Now, 1:25:53.760 --> 1:25:56.400 so every time the Senate votes on the super majority, 1:25:56.400 --> 1:25:59.080 they're technically still ending a filibuster, even though there's nobody 1:25:59.080 --> 1:26:01.479 on the four filibuster. So it's completely a mutation of 1:26:01.520 --> 1:26:04.000 what the original rule was decided to do, and it's 1:26:04.000 --> 1:26:06.280 just accumulated in this sort of like you know, accretion 1:26:06.439 --> 1:26:10.400 of layers of norms and made the sound of completely dysfunctional, 1:26:10.640 --> 1:26:13.320 just like the Framers predicted it would be if a 1:26:13.360 --> 1:26:15.080 supermajority requirement was put in place. 1:26:15.479 --> 1:26:19.120 So let's talk about the different like hacks that were 1:26:19.400 --> 1:26:24.320 essentially created to avoid the filibuster reconciliation. I got a 1:26:24.320 --> 1:26:27.360 fun viewer question back to my last episode about it, 1:26:27.960 --> 1:26:31.439 and I said, well, it was correct me if I'm wrong. 1:26:31.439 --> 1:26:33.719 It was a creation essentially of Robert byrd right. 1:26:33.960 --> 1:26:37.080 That's right, you know it was. It was sort of 1:26:37.120 --> 1:26:40.439 downstream of the sort of imperial presidency under Nixon, where 1:26:40.479 --> 1:26:43.280 you know, Nixon seized a bunch of powers to the 1:26:43.320 --> 1:26:46.840 executive branch, and so in the post Watergate reaction against that, 1:26:47.840 --> 1:26:50.519 they wanted to shift more power back to the legislative branch, 1:26:50.560 --> 1:26:53.160 and so they created this thing called budget reconciliation, where 1:26:53.400 --> 1:26:55.360 you know, under the power of the purse, one of 1:26:55.400 --> 1:26:57.759 the most important functions of Congress is to pass a budget. 1:26:58.160 --> 1:27:02.439 And you know, if Congress gets you know, stuck on budget, 1:27:02.760 --> 1:27:05.759 that's an advoication of their powers. It shifts more powers 1:27:05.760 --> 1:27:08.599 to the executive because Congress hasn't told the executive how 1:27:08.640 --> 1:27:10.679 to spend the money. So they wanted to make sure 1:27:11.040 --> 1:27:15.040 that budgets could not get stuck or blocked by a minority. 1:27:15.080 --> 1:27:18.160 So they created a separate pathway for anything related to 1:27:18.200 --> 1:27:20.720 the budget, and they put in place strict rules where 1:27:20.720 --> 1:27:23.320 it said, you know, it has to meet these standards. 1:27:23.320 --> 1:27:25.599 But if it meets these standards and applies to the budget, 1:27:25.960 --> 1:27:29.120 it has its own pathway where there's no supermajority requirement. 1:27:29.960 --> 1:27:32.360 It's a straight fifty vote threshold all the way through. 1:27:32.400 --> 1:27:35.200 But there is sort of almost a talking filibuster built 1:27:35.200 --> 1:27:38.320 in of this thing called voterama, where you know, anybody 1:27:38.320 --> 1:27:41.000 can bring an amendment, and so before passage you'll have 1:27:41.080 --> 1:27:43.439 these night you know, sessions that go all night where 1:27:43.479 --> 1:27:46.519 everybody's so you know, kind of they sort of tried 1:27:46.560 --> 1:27:50.599 to recreate the original Senate, but only for issues related 1:27:50.600 --> 1:27:54.840 to the budget. Those those criteria that determine what can 1:27:54.880 --> 1:27:58.600 pass along that pathway that's been expanded steadily over the 1:27:59.320 --> 1:28:01.800 since the seventy when this was enacted to sort of, 1:28:01.880 --> 1:28:04.120 you know, expand the definition of what's allowed to pass 1:28:04.160 --> 1:28:07.200 through it. But even so, you know, anything that's not 1:28:07.520 --> 1:28:10.560 economic and nature definitely can't pass through that pathway, and 1:28:10.840 --> 1:28:12.639 even a lot of things that are economic and nature, 1:28:12.800 --> 1:28:14.080 you know, still get kicked out. 1:28:14.600 --> 1:28:19.680 I think the first Bush tax cuts were not reconciliation. 1:28:19.840 --> 1:28:21.679 I think he did that with sixty because I remember 1:28:21.760 --> 1:28:23.960 him finding five Democratic senators. 1:28:24.000 --> 1:28:27.160 I know, No, I think I think it was reconciliation 1:28:27.320 --> 1:28:28.880 he did, and both those things are true. He did. 1:28:28.960 --> 1:28:32.240 Max Bockus supported those, some Democrats supported him, But I 1:28:32.360 --> 1:28:34.920 still think it was on the reconciliation. But with which, 1:28:34.960 --> 1:28:36.920 by the way, is the way it used to happen, 1:28:36.920 --> 1:28:39.439 which was that just because something passed, you know, along 1:28:39.520 --> 1:28:42.320 majority rule pathway, didn't make it party line, you know. 1:28:42.360 --> 1:28:45.840 I mean, look, medicare you know. So the things we 1:28:45.840 --> 1:28:49.160 think of as the greatest by partisan accomplishments generally happened 1:28:49.240 --> 1:28:51.160 during the period when the Senate was majority rule, and 1:28:51.160 --> 1:28:54.000 what would happen is people would fight it tooth and nail. 1:28:54.439 --> 1:28:55.840 But then as soon as it was clear that the 1:28:55.880 --> 1:28:58.240 majority had the votes, a bunch of people who were 1:28:58.240 --> 1:29:00.519 holding out for something would would then come on and say, okay, 1:29:00.520 --> 1:29:02.160 I'm going to join on board anyways, on the way 1:29:02.320 --> 1:29:02.679 on the right. 1:29:02.720 --> 1:29:04.200 I want to be on the right side of that boat. 1:29:04.360 --> 1:29:05.040 Sure that. 1:29:05.439 --> 1:29:08.519 Yeah, Well, let's talk the judiciary, because this is where 1:29:08.560 --> 1:29:11.679 I I I you know, there have been separate rules created, 1:29:11.840 --> 1:29:16.800 and I kind of think everybody's gone the wrong direction, right, 1:29:16.840 --> 1:29:19.720 Meaning if I read Federalist seventy eight, which is the 1:29:19.800 --> 1:29:23.719 Alexander Hamilton Federalist paper on the judiciary, it is pretty 1:29:23.760 --> 1:29:27.519 clear that the description of the judiciary that the founders 1:29:27.520 --> 1:29:31.280 intended was for what I call referees, so the least 1:29:31.320 --> 1:29:34.840 partisan individuals you could get in the least partisan way. 1:29:34.920 --> 1:29:35.040 Right. 1:29:35.080 --> 1:29:37.400 That was the reason for the lifetime appointment. That was 1:29:37.840 --> 1:29:42.200 But so to me, he didn't say there should be 1:29:42.240 --> 1:29:43.680 and maybe you could make the argument, you know, he 1:29:43.720 --> 1:29:46.439 should have said, you know, all federal judges should be 1:29:46.439 --> 1:29:50.120 super majorities. But that's where my head is at, Like 1:29:50.200 --> 1:29:53.240 I don't trust the two parties anymore, and to the 1:29:53.280 --> 1:29:57.320 point of, with the way the judiciary works, would we 1:29:57.439 --> 1:29:59.840 be better off if if we didn't instead of lowering 1:29:59.880 --> 1:30:03.439 the threshold from sixty dowe to fifty, of raising the 1:30:03.439 --> 1:30:07.120 threshold from sixty to seventy five. And the reason I 1:30:07.120 --> 1:30:11.640 have come down on this idea is looking at I 1:30:11.680 --> 1:30:15.479 got to know somebody who worked in the Bush White 1:30:15.520 --> 1:30:19.320 House Counsel's office in the first Bush forty three and 1:30:19.360 --> 1:30:22.479 they were the last Republican presidency under the sixty vote 1:30:22.520 --> 1:30:25.400 threshold right until Trump came in, and then it got lowered. 1:30:25.479 --> 1:30:28.360 He got to lower it, all got lowered, and he 1:30:28.400 --> 1:30:32.559 said they'd have nominated completely different people for federal judge 1:30:32.560 --> 1:30:37.080 ships if the threshold was fifty and not sixty. Much 1:30:37.080 --> 1:30:43.320 more ideological, much less you know. That to me was 1:30:43.640 --> 1:30:46.360 that is why I'm like, Yeah, this is why we 1:30:46.360 --> 1:30:49.360 shouldn't have lowered the threshold, because ultimately I want the 1:30:49.439 --> 1:30:53.040 least partisan people as my judge. I don't want partisan 1:30:53.040 --> 1:30:56.479 people as my judge. I know we're a long way 1:30:56.479 --> 1:30:59.840 away from us from a situation going back to that, 1:31:00.400 --> 1:31:02.960 but why is that so difficult? How did we allow 1:31:03.040 --> 1:31:06.679 the judicial? Why did we decide to politicize the judicial. 1:31:07.280 --> 1:31:09.880 Yeah, I mean I think one hundred percent. See you 1:31:09.880 --> 1:31:12.240 know where you're coming from on that. I think that 1:31:12.400 --> 1:31:14.880 you know, it is a bit cyclical, right, I mean, like, 1:31:15.320 --> 1:31:17.880 you know, a lot of judges did used to be 1:31:18.000 --> 1:31:20.400 pretty part of it. I mean, you know, the nineteen said, look, 1:31:21.320 --> 1:31:23.639 the nineteenth century judiciary general was corrupt. 1:31:23.880 --> 1:31:26.360 Yeah, okay, yeah, and there was a ton of a 1:31:26.400 --> 1:31:29.360 lot of corruption there. I'm not gonna I take your point. 1:31:29.520 --> 1:31:31.080 Right right, So I think I think those things work 1:31:31.120 --> 1:31:33.720 in cycles. I think where I come down on this 1:31:33.760 --> 1:31:39.400 stuff is that it's really hard to you know, enforce 1:31:40.479 --> 1:31:45.000 good things like you know, good judgment, moderation by rule. 1:31:45.720 --> 1:31:48.400 It's just very hard. And that's when you run into 1:31:48.439 --> 1:31:50.439 this problem we were just talking about, of the rule, 1:31:50.760 --> 1:31:54.759 you know, having unintended consequences. It's just if the nature 1:31:54.800 --> 1:31:57.720 of the times is such that, you know, this is 1:31:57.760 --> 1:32:01.000 what people are demanding, it's it's going to find a way. 1:32:01.479 --> 1:32:05.360 And I think that you know, you know, I'm not 1:32:05.520 --> 1:32:10.120 a conservative by nature, so I feel, you know, slightly 1:32:10.200 --> 1:32:11.800 incoorporable saying this. But when you go back to the 1:32:11.800 --> 1:32:16.320 framer's design, you know, I think I am an originalist 1:32:16.320 --> 1:32:19.439 when it comes to the system designed, you know, and 1:32:20.200 --> 1:32:23.040 this the system was designed to just not have a 1:32:23.080 --> 1:32:28.040 super majority threshold anywhere in the path from beginning to end. 1:32:28.400 --> 1:32:32.280 The only thing that required a super majority, it was was. 1:32:31.840 --> 1:32:35.080 Was cast, social amendments, impeachment, you know, but they specified 1:32:35.080 --> 1:32:37.559 those in the Constitution, which just goes to show how 1:32:37.560 --> 1:32:38.720 they consider this to be. 1:32:39.080 --> 1:32:41.320 It's a very fair point. The fact that he didn't 1:32:41.400 --> 1:32:44.120 argue for it, you know, he certainly argued. He argued 1:32:44.160 --> 1:32:48.840 hard against judicial elections, which to me tells you that 1:32:48.880 --> 1:32:51.120 what I mean, you want to talk about corrupt, Those 1:32:51.160 --> 1:32:54.439 state supreme court partisan races, to me are just ter 1:32:54.720 --> 1:32:58.640 I mean, I think they just the mere existence of 1:32:58.680 --> 1:33:00.599 them under month rule of law. 1:33:00.640 --> 1:33:02.240 Well, and you're seeing more and more money start to 1:33:02.240 --> 1:33:03.720 flow to them too, you know. I mean, they're going 1:33:03.800 --> 1:33:06.479 to become just as political as any election. I think 1:33:06.479 --> 1:33:08.800 that's right. So I think it's it's just a tough 1:33:08.840 --> 1:33:12.120 thing to do by rule. And so, you know, there 1:33:12.120 --> 1:33:14.559 are many bad features of the times we live in. 1:33:15.240 --> 1:33:16.960 I think, you know, sort of a return to the 1:33:17.000 --> 1:33:19.519 basic features of our system that allow things to move 1:33:19.560 --> 1:33:21.720 and allow our system to I think if you went 1:33:21.760 --> 1:33:24.839 to seventy five, which you'd probably have is just massive 1:33:24.880 --> 1:33:27.240 judicial backlogs and seats not getting filled. 1:33:27.280 --> 1:33:29.040 Well, this gets to the whole chicken and egg thing. 1:33:29.080 --> 1:33:31.560 Like we began earlier talking about the lack of ideological 1:33:31.560 --> 1:33:34.719 diversity in the two parties. When we had ideological diversity 1:33:34.720 --> 1:33:37.960 in the two parties, we regularly had these sixty and 1:33:38.040 --> 1:33:42.639 seventy vote confirmations because there was this ideological diversity as 1:33:42.640 --> 1:33:47.040 we polarized ourselves right as you know, the embedding of 1:33:47.080 --> 1:33:49.280 red and blue right, which you know, we could make 1:33:49.320 --> 1:33:51.200 an argument it began in two thousand. I sort of 1:33:51.760 --> 1:33:54.280 think now in hindsight, it began with the fallow of 1:33:54.320 --> 1:33:58.800 the Berlin Wall. That that's when both parties bases, you know, 1:33:58.880 --> 1:34:03.040 got reanimated again. We're like, okay, cold War's over. We 1:34:03.080 --> 1:34:06.040 can't be told to sit sit quietly in the corner anymore. 1:34:06.200 --> 1:34:11.960 We're coming right. But you know, that's the I guess 1:34:12.120 --> 1:34:15.120 it is the better solution than open primaries, getting rid 1:34:15.120 --> 1:34:18.000 of all partisan primaries, and that then you then you 1:34:18.160 --> 1:34:20.280 just get a different type of nominee. 1:34:20.520 --> 1:34:22.640 I think that's I think that's I would be in 1:34:22.640 --> 1:34:26.920 favor of opening up primaries for sure, you know, and 1:34:27.240 --> 1:34:29.479 I think that you know, you look at someone like 1:34:30.000 --> 1:34:32.919 would Bernie Sanders have won the twenty sixteen presidential nomination 1:34:33.240 --> 1:34:35.120 if their primary had been open, you know, it's or 1:34:35.439 --> 1:34:37.559 more primaries and along the way had been opened. Maybe 1:34:37.680 --> 1:34:39.800 they I think they argued that at the time. You know, 1:34:39.880 --> 1:34:42.439 he's interesting because you could say he's ideological. But also 1:34:42.520 --> 1:34:46.080 he was sort of an underappreciated aspect of his twenty 1:34:46.120 --> 1:34:48.759 sixteen campaign was that he was more moderate on cultural 1:34:48.760 --> 1:34:51.840 issues than Hillary, and he was actually sort of presenting 1:34:52.080 --> 1:34:54.599 much more of that classic point. Remember how Hillary talking 1:34:54.640 --> 1:34:58.080 about attacked him, kept attacking him in sense, Yeah, attacking 1:34:58.120 --> 1:34:59.800 him from the left, not the right, that's right. 1:35:00.160 --> 1:35:02.320 You know, he had at. 1:35:01.520 --> 1:35:04.559 Some point said the interest groups are the establishment. You know, 1:35:04.600 --> 1:35:06.400 plan pared to all these groups. So I think that's 1:35:07.000 --> 1:35:09.759 I think you've opened the doorway for a more interesting 1:35:09.840 --> 1:35:11.200 mix of ideologies. 1:35:11.200 --> 1:35:15.479 If you did that, well that uh, let's land the 1:35:15.479 --> 1:35:22.080 plane this way. What do you plan? You know, do 1:35:22.120 --> 1:35:25.000 you see searchlight? On one hand, you want to you're 1:35:25.040 --> 1:35:28.400 going to be an incubator of policy ideas and also 1:35:28.439 --> 1:35:30.160 an incubator of campaign tactics. 1:35:31.320 --> 1:35:34.479 Well, I think if we had a sort of campaign advice, 1:35:34.520 --> 1:35:36.880 it would be basically to be heterodox you know, I mean, 1:35:36.960 --> 1:35:38.759 we would say which, and I think that's more powerful 1:35:38.800 --> 1:35:41.839 than any campaign tactic. We are, we are a political 1:35:41.880 --> 1:35:44.760 culture that's a wash in. You know, this or that 1:35:44.800 --> 1:35:46.840 media strategy, this or that platform, and all those things 1:35:46.880 --> 1:35:49.960 are important, but fundamentally, the most powerful thing you can 1:35:50.000 --> 1:35:52.720 do is offer a different mix of issues to the 1:35:52.760 --> 1:35:55.840 American people. And so much else flows downstream from that. 1:35:55.960 --> 1:35:59.560 So our advice to candidates would be decide to be heterodox. 1:35:59.600 --> 1:36:01.479 You know, if you look through your issue positions, and 1:36:01.560 --> 1:36:05.000 every single position on that page on your website, you 1:36:05.040 --> 1:36:08.600 know is a rigidly ideological left wing position, then you know, 1:36:08.640 --> 1:36:11.240 if you're running in a competitive race, then you're probably 1:36:11.240 --> 1:36:14.519 doing it wrong. So and listen, look and look in, 1:36:15.080 --> 1:36:17.439 Look to your beliefs, look to the people that you're 1:36:17.680 --> 1:36:18.880 seeking a represent. 1:36:18.520 --> 1:36:21.040 This only works those issues you are right, Like, yeah, 1:36:21.080 --> 1:36:23.959 I look at Grand I look at the Grand Platner situation, 1:36:24.320 --> 1:36:27.640 and you know how I look. I got my skepticism 1:36:27.680 --> 1:36:32.160 on the tattoo story. I will admit that, Like, you know, 1:36:32.280 --> 1:36:34.240 I think you put a permanent marking on your body. 1:36:34.240 --> 1:36:37.599 You're going to research what that is. But so look, 1:36:37.640 --> 1:36:40.040 that's me as a voter or as a as a 1:36:40.080 --> 1:36:43.120 consumer of this. But what do you make of his 1:36:43.200 --> 1:36:46.880 staying power. What does that tell you about what you're 1:36:47.240 --> 1:36:49.400 what you're advising people to be. 1:36:49.840 --> 1:36:52.000 I think I think it's it's it says a lot. 1:36:52.080 --> 1:36:53.920 And I think that you know, he's he's a person 1:36:54.000 --> 1:36:57.519 who served in the military, you know, and enlisted in 1:36:57.560 --> 1:36:59.920 a war that he says he didn't agree with. But 1:37:00.000 --> 1:37:03.240 I think that's a powerful story. He loves this guy 1:37:03.320 --> 1:37:05.040 loves guns, you know, not just in the sort of 1:37:05.200 --> 1:37:07.160 carried a gun once way, but I mean, you know, 1:37:07.439 --> 1:37:10.639 that's that's a heterodoxy that fits the state of Maine. 1:37:11.600 --> 1:37:15.320 People are looking for authenticity. They're looking for that that 1:37:15.320 --> 1:37:20.280 desire to fight that, that authenticity being imperfect, having made mistakes, 1:37:20.600 --> 1:37:22.720 all that stuff. I think it's it's very powerful. And 1:37:23.160 --> 1:37:25.519 so far, the way voters in Maine are reacting to 1:37:25.560 --> 1:37:27.559 those stories is to dismiss them or even to say 1:37:27.560 --> 1:37:29.680 that's making me back him even stronger. So I think 1:37:29.720 --> 1:37:32.720 that's a very powerful phenomenon that's going on right now. 1:37:32.720 --> 1:37:35.160 And his level of heterodoxy could win a state like Maine, 1:37:35.160 --> 1:37:37.880 which is, you know, pretty blue. If you're going to 1:37:38.000 --> 1:37:40.800 be running in a state like Iowa, Ohio or Nebraska. 1:37:40.840 --> 1:37:42.680 You know, you got to be even more heterodox. And 1:37:42.760 --> 1:37:45.479 that's the that's the advice I would give to candidates. 1:37:46.240 --> 1:37:49.479 And is this about finding how much of this is 1:37:49.520 --> 1:37:51.760 on the party seeking out those candidates and how much 1:37:51.840 --> 1:37:55.080 is it just simply more candidates need to not seek 1:37:55.120 --> 1:37:57.760 out the groups looking for I mean, you see this 1:37:57.840 --> 1:38:00.920 a lot where and I'm sorry, I think that I 1:38:01.040 --> 1:38:04.400 watch the committees do this, right, Well, if you don't 1:38:04.400 --> 1:38:05.960 do this, then we're not going to be able to 1:38:06.080 --> 1:38:09.719 bunge your general election. They sort of hold you hostage 1:38:09.760 --> 1:38:10.479 on certain things. 1:38:10.720 --> 1:38:12.400 Oh one hundred percent. I mean people, you know, the 1:38:12.479 --> 1:38:14.040 questioning gas a lot is like, oh, these are just 1:38:14.040 --> 1:38:17.040 little nonprofits, you know, doing the best they can. And 1:38:17.080 --> 1:38:20.080 that's that's in the post Citizens United world. These groups 1:38:20.120 --> 1:38:23.120 wield war chests of millions and millions of dollars, and 1:38:23.479 --> 1:38:26.320 in the primary, if you don't take their preferred positions, 1:38:26.360 --> 1:38:28.559 they spend those millions of dollars against you and in 1:38:28.600 --> 1:38:30.719 favor of your opponent. So it's still a lot of power. 1:38:31.680 --> 1:38:34.960 But I think, you know, it would be smart for 1:38:34.960 --> 1:38:36.320 the groups to get a little bit smarter in what 1:38:36.320 --> 1:38:38.880 they're asking people to do and make their asks more 1:38:38.880 --> 1:38:41.320 about you know, can you beat the Republican then than 1:38:41.479 --> 1:38:44.240 you know, going through a purity test. But I think 1:38:44.280 --> 1:38:46.080 candidates should, you know, if they're being asked to take 1:38:46.120 --> 1:38:48.240 crazy positions, they should just say no, and they should 1:38:48.280 --> 1:38:49.880 make they should be clear of the voters that they're 1:38:49.880 --> 1:38:50.160 saying no. 1:38:50.240 --> 1:38:52.480 I think would you no longer do questionnaires? 1:38:53.720 --> 1:38:55.960 A questionnaire with one question, which is the tell me 1:38:56.000 --> 1:38:58.519 why you can beat the Republican? That would be my FoST. 1:38:58.320 --> 1:38:59.120 That's just the questionnaire. 1:38:59.240 --> 1:38:59.960 Yeah, that's right. 1:39:00.479 --> 1:39:04.400 Are you Can you imagine search Light funding a campaign 1:39:04.479 --> 1:39:06.160 for against a candidate in a primary. 1:39:06.720 --> 1:39:09.800 We are acumenical for now. I think what we want 1:39:09.840 --> 1:39:11.200 to do is just sort of put out the best 1:39:11.240 --> 1:39:14.360 ideas and approaches and hope that that, you know, people 1:39:14.400 --> 1:39:16.840 adopt them. So that's that is our stance for the 1:39:16.840 --> 1:39:18.080 time being. We'll see. 1:39:18.439 --> 1:39:20.919 Well, I love your marker for success in your mind. 1:39:21.160 --> 1:39:23.519 If Democrats don't win the Senate, they can't say they 1:39:23.520 --> 1:39:24.320 won the midterms. 1:39:24.800 --> 1:39:25.880 That is exactly what I think. 1:39:27.040 --> 1:39:30.040 Yeah, it's a high bar, but guess what if you 1:39:30.080 --> 1:39:32.320 want to if you want to succeed, you got to 1:39:32.320 --> 1:39:32.960 go meet a high bar. 1:39:33.080 --> 1:39:35.200 You've done it before, you know, it's important name. 1:39:35.200 --> 1:39:38.960 High anyway, Hey Adam, this was great. Uh. Look, you 1:39:39.000 --> 1:39:41.320 have a book out about the Senate. You talked in 1:39:41.400 --> 1:39:43.320 such detail. Why don't you want to tell people how 1:39:43.360 --> 1:39:44.000 they can go by it? 1:39:44.040 --> 1:39:49.080 It's absolutely good. Kill Switch by by Me is available 1:39:49.080 --> 1:39:50.880 on Amazon and anywhere books are sold, So. 1:39:51.479 --> 1:39:54.040 Go check it out, check it search Light Foundation. 1:39:55.200 --> 1:39:56.960 It's about the Senate, but it's not boring. It's the 1:39:56.960 --> 1:39:58.280 best is the mind. 1:39:58.280 --> 1:40:00.160 Think you did a good job sort of talking the 1:40:00.160 --> 1:40:03.280 little history. I mean you you you sort of you 1:40:03.360 --> 1:40:05.599 scratched all the itches I was hoping you'd scratched during 1:40:05.600 --> 1:40:08.960 our conversation, which was talking about the founder's original intent 1:40:09.040 --> 1:40:13.479 all this. And you've certainly been persuasive to me about 1:40:13.520 --> 1:40:17.760 the lack of mention of supermajorities in certain parts of 1:40:17.800 --> 1:40:21.400 the founders versus where they did intentionally bring up the 1:40:21.439 --> 1:40:23.680 decision super majorities. I think if you're going to be 1:40:23.680 --> 1:40:26.000 an originalist, you got to pay attention. 1:40:25.760 --> 1:40:27.360 To that as well. That's right, that's right. 1:40:27.400 --> 1:40:36.439 Well, thanks check Fran, good to see it. Well you 1:40:36.520 --> 1:40:39.080 heard Adam Jennison there. I do think the bar I 1:40:39.120 --> 1:40:41.439 think he makes a fair argument, and I think that 1:40:42.760 --> 1:40:47.080 you know, there's gonna be a lot of Democratic protectors 1:40:47.080 --> 1:40:49.080 of the Democratic brand who are going to tak that's 1:40:49.080 --> 1:40:51.120 not fair. This is too hard of a Senate map. 1:40:51.479 --> 1:40:54.559 But he's right if you can't say you won the 1:40:54.600 --> 1:40:56.799 midterms if you don't win both the House and the Senate. 1:40:57.760 --> 1:41:00.960 And yeah, the senate's hard, but they only need four seats. 1:41:01.640 --> 1:41:04.200 In twenty oh six they needed six and they got 1:41:04.200 --> 1:41:08.280 the six. So it's not like you know, this is 1:41:08.600 --> 1:41:12.120 four is not an unreasonable number. So if you're truly 1:41:12.160 --> 1:41:19.519 winning the argument, you win the four seats. And you know, 1:41:19.560 --> 1:41:21.840 which is why if you're going to mess around with 1:41:21.920 --> 1:41:27.200 the with the prediction markets, now's the time to buy 1:41:28.040 --> 1:41:31.479 shares in Democrats win the Senate because and then, to 1:41:31.479 --> 1:41:35.240 be frank, then you sell them sometime in mid October 1:41:35.720 --> 1:41:39.160 and cash in your profits. So with that, let's take 1:41:39.160 --> 1:41:43.880 a few questions ask Chuck. First one comes from Max 1:41:44.000 --> 1:41:47.080 w from Alexandria here in the DMV sains. I've been 1:41:47.080 --> 1:41:49.800 a fan since before you hosted Meet the Press. Thank you, 1:41:49.960 --> 1:41:51.760 and I particularly enjoy your political analysis and how you 1:41:51.800 --> 1:41:54.719 use American history. Explain what we are going through towards 1:41:54.720 --> 1:41:57.000 that end. Have you watched Death by Lightning? On Netflix. 1:41:57.080 --> 1:41:59.559 I am in the middle of it or not finished 1:41:59.600 --> 1:42:01.680 Part one. It's four part series telling the story of 1:42:01.720 --> 1:42:04.280 James Garfield's rise to the presidency after winning the nomination 1:42:04.600 --> 1:42:06.880 on the thirty six ballot at the Republican National Convention 1:42:07.000 --> 1:42:09.679 in eighteen eighty and his assassination after only three months 1:42:09.680 --> 1:42:12.360 in office. It's filled with political intrigu corruption, spoils, and 1:42:12.439 --> 1:42:14.439 patronage near the end of the nineteenth century. Right up 1:42:14.439 --> 1:42:18.880 your ally, Max, You're right, and I will sort of 1:42:18.920 --> 1:42:21.240 give you a little insight here. I've been obsessed with 1:42:21.280 --> 1:42:26.639 the Garfield story for a long time. Have a writing 1:42:26.680 --> 1:42:30.759 partner off and On by the name of Adam Pearlman, 1:42:30.880 --> 1:42:36.760 who has done some terrific work billions in particulars, and 1:42:36.800 --> 1:42:40.200 he and I have and I have a pilot script 1:42:40.720 --> 1:42:45.000 actually that we had once been working with a major 1:42:45.040 --> 1:42:49.360 production company and the Game of Throne guys bennyoffen Weisse 1:42:50.160 --> 1:42:54.040 got the Netflix deal and they ended up pitching a 1:42:54.080 --> 1:42:57.439 Netflix Garfield series. And let's just say they had a 1:42:57.720 --> 1:43:00.320 longer track record than my Adam and I did on this. 1:43:02.160 --> 1:43:05.240 I have watched episode one, I've enjoyed it. It is 1:43:05.320 --> 1:43:07.960 not the take I would have done, and I'm not 1:43:08.240 --> 1:43:10.680 This is not to be critical. I think they've made 1:43:10.680 --> 1:43:14.160 an interest, They've made some interesting decisions. I'm looking forward 1:43:14.280 --> 1:43:16.720 to where they go, and that is the beauty of 1:43:16.760 --> 1:43:20.200 this story. I'm I'm obsessed with the period itself. Right, 1:43:20.240 --> 1:43:25.240 this was we were so close to getting reconstruction back. 1:43:25.400 --> 1:43:29.080 And I'm somebody who thinks a Garfield presidency. You know, 1:43:29.120 --> 1:43:31.760 the Garfield presidency got a civil service reform, which was 1:43:31.800 --> 1:43:35.240 not a small thing. Trump's actually trying to the Trump 1:43:35.360 --> 1:43:37.320 now is trying to undo some of the civil service 1:43:37.360 --> 1:43:41.960 reform that that Chester Arthur, who ends up the you know, 1:43:42.280 --> 1:43:45.439 a forced vice president on by the political machine in 1:43:45.439 --> 1:43:50.280 New York, ends up after the death of Garfield, sort 1:43:50.320 --> 1:43:57.000 of sees the light and stops being a cog in 1:43:57.080 --> 1:44:02.439 the Roscoe Conkling New York political machine and actually pledges 1:44:02.479 --> 1:44:05.599 to fulfill a Garfield presidency. But I think Garfield himself, 1:44:05.600 --> 1:44:08.440 had he lived, I think you might have seen reconstruction 1:44:08.560 --> 1:44:12.479 come back. I think, you know, he he was. He's 1:44:12.520 --> 1:44:16.599 the closest thing we've had to sort of the out 1:44:16.680 --> 1:44:19.679 of nowhere president. Right. It's the you know, I've always 1:44:19.680 --> 1:44:21.639 said the mythology. I was telling this to my wife 1:44:21.680 --> 1:44:23.000 when we were watching and I said, you know, the 1:44:23.280 --> 1:44:26.439 the mythology that you know, the out of nowhere candidate 1:44:26.479 --> 1:44:29.280 can get the nomination with a speech. The reason the 1:44:29.280 --> 1:44:33.040 mythology existed with conventions is because that had happened once, right, 1:44:33.160 --> 1:44:37.719 James Garfield, right, his speech moved enough people to suddenly 1:44:37.720 --> 1:44:41.760 start considering him because of this sort of deadlock when 1:44:41.800 --> 1:44:43.880 it came to the grant side and the machines and 1:44:43.880 --> 1:44:48.720 all of this stuff. So, you know, Getteau and I 1:44:48.760 --> 1:44:51.640 think there I like how they're portraying Getteau because I 1:44:51.680 --> 1:44:54.840 think he was mentally ill and sort of a guy 1:44:54.880 --> 1:45:00.200 with delusions of grandeur who clearly had a trouble upbring 1:45:00.280 --> 1:45:02.880 had a troubled relationship with his father. I mean, there's 1:45:02.920 --> 1:45:05.880 a lot of you know, not to play spoiler here, 1:45:05.920 --> 1:45:08.000 but you know, Gato ends up trying to defend defends 1:45:08.080 --> 1:45:11.960 himself when the first real sort of feeding frenzied trial 1:45:11.960 --> 1:45:14.320 of the century that the media was obsessed with was 1:45:14.320 --> 1:45:17.439 actually the trial and the Gettou trial, which began before 1:45:17.479 --> 1:45:23.320 Garfield died. Because Garfield's you know, Gettoau Getau, you could 1:45:23.439 --> 1:45:28.360 argue didn't kill Garfield. The doctors who didn't know what 1:45:28.400 --> 1:45:32.000 they were doing killed Garfield, right, they stuck there. There's 1:45:32.040 --> 1:45:35.760 a kind named doctor doctor and I haven't I don't 1:45:35.800 --> 1:45:38.160 know if they're going to portray him or not. But 1:45:38.200 --> 1:45:40.840 the guy's name really was doctor doctor. Like sometimes you 1:45:40.960 --> 1:45:42.679 just can't make it up right, it's going to sound 1:45:42.720 --> 1:45:46.160 like it's been fictionalized. But he didn't believe that you 1:45:46.240 --> 1:45:48.680 had to wash your hands before you I mean, this 1:45:48.840 --> 1:45:52.240 was still like debated medical science. Do you do you 1:45:52.360 --> 1:45:52.800 do you do? 1:45:53.640 --> 1:45:53.840 You? 1:45:53.880 --> 1:45:55.920 Should you wash your hands? Do you need a sterile 1:45:56.000 --> 1:45:59.479 environment before you? You know? Which I know seems but 1:45:59.520 --> 1:46:03.120 it was a there was this was so called new medicine, 1:46:03.280 --> 1:46:06.240 new medical practices that was coming out of Europe, and 1:46:06.320 --> 1:46:09.559 it was a guy named doctor Lister, which if you're 1:46:09.600 --> 1:46:13.400 wondering if doctor Lister invented listerine, he did not, But 1:46:13.439 --> 1:46:16.519 doctor Lister was sort of the godfather of this sort 1:46:16.560 --> 1:46:18.400 of idea that you wash your hands and you need 1:46:18.400 --> 1:46:21.599 a sterile environment before as a doctor, before you give 1:46:21.960 --> 1:46:25.760 medical care. So Lister Reene was though named after you 1:46:25.800 --> 1:46:31.160 know Lister, is that part? But no, the treatment, the 1:46:31.240 --> 1:46:34.960 attempt to save Garfield's life killed him. It's possible if 1:46:35.000 --> 1:46:38.720 nobody touched him. That he that he might have that 1:46:38.840 --> 1:46:40.640 the bullet wouldn't have killed him, and he might have 1:46:41.160 --> 1:46:44.240 lived and recovered with the bullet in him, but the 1:46:44.280 --> 1:46:49.720 attempt to get the bullet out actually killed him. So 1:46:50.520 --> 1:46:55.760 but that's obviously stuff that you've scientifically figure out later, 1:46:55.920 --> 1:46:59.280 which in the moment we didn't have. But I am 1:46:59.439 --> 1:47:03.720 obsessed with the entire period. Again, it's interesting how they 1:47:03.800 --> 1:47:06.639 chose to sell it, which is, here's two guys you've 1:47:06.640 --> 1:47:09.040 never heard of or you've forgotten, who have been forgotten 1:47:09.080 --> 1:47:11.400 to history. One was the twentieth President of United States. 1:47:11.800 --> 1:47:16.880 It was It's an interesting choice. I get it. They're 1:47:16.920 --> 1:47:24.160 trying to mass appeal it, and I'm enjoying it. I 1:47:24.200 --> 1:47:27.519 fully will confess I would have had a slightly different way. 1:47:27.560 --> 1:47:30.240 I would have done it different way. I would have started. 1:47:31.840 --> 1:47:36.200 Nothing wrong with what they did. And here's my goal. 1:47:36.320 --> 1:47:39.479 I want this to be successful enough that there is 1:47:39.600 --> 1:47:43.920 more appetite for more. I think Roscoe Conkling if you 1:47:44.040 --> 1:47:45.800 want to go and read about one of the most 1:47:45.880 --> 1:47:48.439 you know, the Mitch McConnell or Nancy Pelosi of their day, 1:47:48.439 --> 1:47:50.880 and I say both right. He was a congressional leader. 1:47:51.080 --> 1:47:57.080 Congressional leaders are both lionized and backroom transactionalists at the 1:47:57.120 --> 1:47:59.880 same time. And don't let anybody tell you that you 1:48:00.080 --> 1:48:02.439 got to have the mix of both of them. Conkling 1:48:02.560 --> 1:48:06.200 was an interesting cat, and he's going to be portrayed 1:48:06.240 --> 1:48:09.679 sort of, I think a bit simply here. It's less 1:48:09.680 --> 1:48:14.720 simple than it is. But boy is he is he 1:48:14.760 --> 1:48:19.760 a character that if there really was a demand for 1:48:19.800 --> 1:48:22.759 more about this era, he could get his own mini series, 1:48:23.200 --> 1:48:27.160 Like you could really develop something just on him. He's 1:48:27.200 --> 1:48:29.840 that colorful of a character. And yes, the way they 1:48:29.840 --> 1:48:33.160 have him dressing, he was always for the day, dressing 1:48:33.200 --> 1:48:36.880 in brighter colors than everybody else. He was flamboyant man 1:48:36.920 --> 1:48:43.360 about town. I don't think he ever spent a night alone. 1:48:43.800 --> 1:48:46.680 So there's a it is. You are right, Max that 1:48:46.760 --> 1:48:48.679 it is up my alley. It was so up my alley. 1:48:48.680 --> 1:48:51.320 I wanted to make my own version of it, so there, 1:48:51.920 --> 1:48:54.240 all right, But kudos to those guys, and thank you 1:48:54.320 --> 1:48:58.960 Netflix for for green lighting a period piece like that. 1:48:59.200 --> 1:49:04.880 There's great history to be told through incredible storytelling, and 1:49:04.920 --> 1:49:09.200 I'd love to see more production companies support stuff like that. 1:49:10.320 --> 1:49:14.040 Next question comes from Stafford from downtown la Hey. I've 1:49:14.080 --> 1:49:15.439 been a fan since your days of Meet the Press, 1:49:15.439 --> 1:49:17.360 and I'm loving the new podcast. Before my question, I 1:49:17.360 --> 1:49:19.600 wanted to say that you appear to have done the impossible. 1:49:19.840 --> 1:49:22.519 You've gotten me interested in both professional and college football. 1:49:22.680 --> 1:49:24.679 Having grown up a Chargers fan, I had largely washed 1:49:24.680 --> 1:49:27.040 my hands of the sport after nineteen ninety five. My 1:49:27.120 --> 1:49:29.080 question is this, can anything be done in the short 1:49:29.120 --> 1:49:32.120 to medium term about electricity costs? I'm a school teacher 1:49:32.160 --> 1:49:34.240 and my partner is a grad student at USC fight On. 1:49:34.720 --> 1:49:36.400 We live in a one bedroom apartment in LA and 1:49:36.439 --> 1:49:38.360 while our incomes are enough to get by, it's starting 1:49:38.400 --> 1:49:40.280 to pinch. I just opened our electric bill for a 1:49:40.280 --> 1:49:42.840 single month and it's easily fifty percent more than we 1:49:42.840 --> 1:49:45.000 were paying a couple of years ago. I know data 1:49:45.000 --> 1:49:47.439 centers are affecting energy prices, but is there more to it? 1:49:47.560 --> 1:49:49.479 Thanks for all the wonderful analysis and for making your 1:49:49.479 --> 1:49:51.920 episodes lengthy. I really get a lot of detail I 1:49:51.920 --> 1:49:55.840 can't get elsewhere. Sincerely, Stafford from downtown LA. How about 1:49:55.840 --> 1:49:58.519 that somebody thanking me for the length. I'm not going 1:49:58.600 --> 1:50:00.519 to go Joe Rogan on you. I must no three 1:50:00.560 --> 1:50:04.240 hour podcasts right. Simmons pushes the envelope in the two 1:50:04.280 --> 1:50:06.599 hour plus range. I'm going to still try to keep 1:50:06.600 --> 1:50:09.920 a one in front of that number on that front. 1:50:10.960 --> 1:50:15.800 So it's interesting with electricity, it's such a complicated thing. 1:50:15.880 --> 1:50:18.280 I was digging into this, and in fact, I'm going 1:50:18.360 --> 1:50:20.559 to be when you hear this, I'm going to be 1:50:20.560 --> 1:50:26.000 down in Austin, Texas, interviewing the governor of Maryland, Wes Moore, 1:50:26.760 --> 1:50:30.479 And I was talking with his staff about a few issues, 1:50:30.520 --> 1:50:33.000 and we were talking about electricity, and I said, you know, 1:50:33.040 --> 1:50:35.040 I was asking about the data center issue in Maryland 1:50:35.040 --> 1:50:37.559 and Maryland, doesn't you know Virginia is a data center state. 1:50:37.560 --> 1:50:40.280 And he was noting how you know, he says, Maryland's 1:50:40.280 --> 1:50:43.080 a transmission state. You know, a lot of electricity goes 1:50:43.080 --> 1:50:45.479 through our state and we pass it through. And you know, 1:50:45.520 --> 1:50:49.519 some states are elect energy producing and they add to 1:50:49.560 --> 1:50:52.519 the grid. Others only take from the grid, Others help, 1:50:52.800 --> 1:50:56.360 you know, sort of the grid itself is a complicated thing. 1:50:57.640 --> 1:51:01.200 California has its own set of rules that only add 1:51:01.280 --> 1:51:03.200 to it. And it's it's one of those things that 1:51:03.280 --> 1:51:12.000 I think that you know, we're we're in this. You know, 1:51:12.040 --> 1:51:16.760 elect elect electric companies are are private companies, but they're 1:51:16.800 --> 1:51:20.720 but they have to get public approval for what they 1:51:20.760 --> 1:51:26.200 do and how they do it. And I think that 1:51:26.280 --> 1:51:29.080 we're about to see, especially with the data center, you know, 1:51:29.240 --> 1:51:31.280 obsession and drain, and it's a real issue in the 1:51:31.320 --> 1:51:34.920 state I live in Virginia because it is like Virginia 1:51:35.000 --> 1:51:36.720 is a huge got a bunch of data centers, and 1:51:36.760 --> 1:51:39.880 we have some of the highest spikes in electricity. So 1:51:41.439 --> 1:51:43.120 I think there's going to have to be some federal 1:51:43.240 --> 1:51:46.400 legislation here because I do think that you know, every 1:51:46.479 --> 1:51:48.920 state is set up to try to regulate itself, right 1:51:48.920 --> 1:51:51.080 You're you're in a you're in a state where where 1:51:51.080 --> 1:51:53.519 they're using a lot of air conditioning and there's always 1:51:53.520 --> 1:51:56.799 a high an a little more usage of energy, particularly 1:51:56.840 --> 1:52:00.840 in the southern part where you know, they're constantly having 1:52:00.880 --> 1:52:06.280 to regulate it, and it is done on a state basis, 1:52:06.320 --> 1:52:08.640 based on state usage. But if we're going to have 1:52:08.720 --> 1:52:12.679 more of these sort of drags on the grid coming 1:52:12.720 --> 1:52:17.000 from other states, and all of this is interconnected, so look, 1:52:17.040 --> 1:52:19.960 I think this is going to be I think the 1:52:20.040 --> 1:52:24.320 electric bill issue is going to be what the price 1:52:24.320 --> 1:52:27.280 of eggs were, right, and grocery bills were in twenty 1:52:27.320 --> 1:52:30.320 twenty four. You know that this is going to be 1:52:31.520 --> 1:52:33.840 the thing that everybody comes back to. We saw it 1:52:33.840 --> 1:52:36.280 in the New Jersey race. Because this is happening across 1:52:36.320 --> 1:52:39.640 the board. Everybody's electric bills are going up. There's just 1:52:39.720 --> 1:52:42.479 a more and there, you know. And what people do 1:52:42.600 --> 1:52:45.320 is they cherry pick the thing that they don't like 1:52:45.400 --> 1:52:48.160 to say this is the reason it's going up. It's 1:52:48.320 --> 1:52:50.920 just everything is the reason. And I think that there's 1:52:50.960 --> 1:52:55.040 some argument that what Trump has done with canceling some 1:52:55.120 --> 1:52:59.840 of these all of the above energy strategies, that he 1:53:00.160 --> 1:53:04.720 actually limiting new energy getting onto the grid, like we 1:53:04.800 --> 1:53:09.599 need more diversified sources of energy in order to keep 1:53:09.800 --> 1:53:13.280 everything going that we're going and him sort of you know, 1:53:13.920 --> 1:53:18.519 essentially torpedoing the Biden Energy Bill mandates when it came 1:53:18.600 --> 1:53:23.000 to wind and solar and things like that. It's going 1:53:23.080 --> 1:53:29.080 to directly impact the cost of electric bills. So I 1:53:29.080 --> 1:53:31.320 don't think there's anything short term that's going to get done. 1:53:31.400 --> 1:53:32.880 But I will say this, I think you're going to 1:53:32.920 --> 1:53:37.680 have more political rhetoric about it. You know, we're all 1:53:37.720 --> 1:53:41.360 going to have to start to recalibrate what's warm and 1:53:41.400 --> 1:53:46.280 cold in order to save a few dollars. I can 1:53:46.360 --> 1:53:48.160 tell you what I'm looking into is trying to figure 1:53:48.160 --> 1:53:51.840 out is there's some solar alternatives, you know, to at 1:53:51.920 --> 1:53:56.719 least minimizing the cost on some things. Right, is there 1:53:57.120 --> 1:53:59.519 and it may be tough in an apartment situation to 1:54:00.240 --> 1:54:03.320 the benefit of that. But will you start to see 1:54:03.400 --> 1:54:06.360 landlords who maybe maybe you know, I don't know how 1:54:06.360 --> 1:54:09.160 you're building a set up and sometimes you everybody sort 1:54:09.200 --> 1:54:12.040 of splits the utility costs. It's part of a larger fee, 1:54:13.080 --> 1:54:15.720 and in that sense, the landlord is incentivized to want 1:54:15.720 --> 1:54:18.280 to maybe put you know, solar panels and come up 1:54:18.320 --> 1:54:21.040 with a different way. But I think you're going to 1:54:21.120 --> 1:54:24.040 see a lot of people looking for alternative ways to 1:54:24.120 --> 1:54:27.600 minimize their drag on the grid. But they're still going 1:54:27.680 --> 1:54:30.800 to want need energy to power their electronics or power 1:54:30.840 --> 1:54:35.320 their car or power whatever. So but I I you know, 1:54:35.360 --> 1:54:37.880 I'm not gonna I'm going to keep researching this more 1:54:37.880 --> 1:54:41.400 and more to give you a better answer to this question, Stafford. 1:54:41.400 --> 1:54:44.800 But I can tell you I think this is this 1:54:44.920 --> 1:54:49.600 is an issue that isn't is only going to get 1:54:49.640 --> 1:54:52.680 more in the mainstream in the conversation because it's the 1:54:52.680 --> 1:54:55.880 type of issue that everybody feels, right, everybody sees the 1:54:55.920 --> 1:54:59.360 cost of that, and we're seeing these giant spikes throw 1:54:59.400 --> 1:55:02.680 in extreme weather where in some places you're using your 1:55:02.720 --> 1:55:04.920 air conditioner longer than you normally do, or in some 1:55:04.960 --> 1:55:07.320 places you're using heat maybe at a time you never 1:55:07.440 --> 1:55:11.560 used it before. That also does weird things to the 1:55:11.600 --> 1:55:16.160 grid and ups the costs of what you're doing on it. 1:55:16.280 --> 1:55:20.440 So I think there never definitely needs to be a 1:55:20.480 --> 1:55:27.440 little more federal involvement with how this grid, with how 1:55:27.480 --> 1:55:31.480 the electric grid is operating, because it's it definitely feels 1:55:31.520 --> 1:55:35.280 and you know, who knows Texas is not on the grid. 1:55:35.320 --> 1:55:39.080 They sort of created their own system. That thing it, 1:55:39.480 --> 1:55:45.360 you know, feels like it's it could trigger a bigger 1:55:45.400 --> 1:55:48.280 problem if they have a tough winner. It's always the 1:55:48.320 --> 1:55:51.240 winners that really put a lot of stress on that 1:55:51.280 --> 1:55:55.400 Texas grid, And if that collapses and it's come close 1:55:55.480 --> 1:55:59.680 a couple of times, it could really sort of sober 1:55:59.760 --> 1:56:02.480 up everybody and realize that we have a federal problem here. 1:56:02.520 --> 1:56:05.040 This isn't going to be solved in one state. I 1:56:05.080 --> 1:56:08.600 don't think states have this have the ability to do this. 1:56:08.800 --> 1:56:13.080 Now you may get some states try to find financial 1:56:13.080 --> 1:56:17.920 help for people, but I'm not sure. There's only only 1:56:17.960 --> 1:56:21.360 so much money that might be available for that. But 1:56:21.440 --> 1:56:27.480 I do think this is going to become the most 1:56:27.480 --> 1:56:30.400 symbolic issue that's talked about when it comes to cost 1:56:30.400 --> 1:56:35.120 of living challenges. Next question comes from Jim Philadelphia's It's 1:56:35.120 --> 1:56:37.000 Big Fans in c NBC Days. Congrats on a great 1:56:37.000 --> 1:56:38.960 start to the new chapter. One been wondering, what do 1:56:38.960 --> 1:56:41.919 you think Trump's real motivation is for intervening in Venezuela 1:56:42.000 --> 1:56:44.560 under the narco terrorism label. He's never shown much interest 1:56:44.600 --> 1:56:47.040 in preserving democracy. Is this really about removing Maduro? Or 1:56:47.080 --> 1:56:49.240 is it just another self serving move, maybe even a 1:56:49.240 --> 1:56:52.160 play for a Nobel Peace Prize. Jim, I'll tell you 1:56:52.160 --> 1:56:56.800 what my thesis is on this. So Marco Rubio, you know, 1:56:56.880 --> 1:57:01.720 after starting off his relationship with Trump making Dick jokes 1:57:02.280 --> 1:57:05.960 about him right at a debate talking about his hands, right, 1:57:06.080 --> 1:57:08.640 Why is the hands part of the thing? Right? It 1:57:08.720 --> 1:57:13.440 is Rubio that made that meme famous. Rubio has since 1:57:13.480 --> 1:57:15.200 done a one ad ent Trump right. We saw it 1:57:15.240 --> 1:57:22.240 sometime during the first term, and he has gone out 1:57:22.240 --> 1:57:26.839 of his way to endear him endear the Latin American 1:57:26.920 --> 1:57:31.440 political activist community that is on the side of ousting 1:57:31.480 --> 1:57:35.600 some of these guys, but that diaspora that has a 1:57:35.600 --> 1:57:39.560 lot of political and financial power in South Florida who've 1:57:39.560 --> 1:57:44.040 been very supportive of Rubio's politics over the years. He essentially, 1:57:44.080 --> 1:57:46.839 because Trump is such an important figure now in South Florida, 1:57:47.640 --> 1:57:51.760 he essentially helped Trump cement whatever you know, cement this, 1:57:52.800 --> 1:57:54.680 or you could argue Rubio had to catch up to 1:57:54.680 --> 1:57:56.480 where all these folks, they all were going, they were 1:57:56.520 --> 1:58:01.760 going to gravitate towards Trump anyway, but this began where Trump, 1:58:01.760 --> 1:58:05.280 where Trump started. Basically doesn't make any decision in Latin 1:58:05.320 --> 1:58:08.240 America without Marco Rubio. And that was true in sort 1:58:08.280 --> 1:58:11.560 of the last year or two of the Trump era, 1:58:12.120 --> 1:58:15.840 the first Trump term. And it is and then you know, 1:58:15.920 --> 1:58:21.680 Rubio really ingratiated himself during Trump's exile at mar A Lago. 1:58:22.200 --> 1:58:27.440 He'd constantly go there. He'd bring these Latin American figures 1:58:27.520 --> 1:58:31.920 to meet with them. He'd be So this is a 1:58:31.960 --> 1:58:34.080 long way of me making the case that this is 1:58:34.120 --> 1:58:38.080 not a Donald Trump obsession. This is a Marco Rubio obsession. 1:58:39.680 --> 1:58:45.200 And I think that Rubio has you know, there is 1:58:45.720 --> 1:58:49.360 there is a demand. Look go see the I hope 1:58:49.400 --> 1:58:52.520 you heard my conversation with Billy Corbin and he did 1:58:52.200 --> 1:58:56.720 a documentary called Men of War about a failed sort 1:58:56.760 --> 1:59:02.240 of bizarre coup, a you know, group of US mercenaries 1:59:02.240 --> 1:59:07.640 working with a former bodyguard of Trump's to somehow get 1:59:07.680 --> 1:59:12.800 on the get into Venezuela and overthrow Maduro. Kind of 1:59:12.840 --> 1:59:18.200 a bay of pigs, Venezuelan style type of story. It's 1:59:18.240 --> 1:59:20.760 one of those you can't believe this is true, but 1:59:21.880 --> 1:59:25.800 you know, Billy always has the receipts. There is a 1:59:25.840 --> 1:59:28.000 group of folks in South Florida that that are, you know, 1:59:28.240 --> 1:59:33.040 frustrated with Maduro, and this is Rubio cares about this. 1:59:33.320 --> 1:59:39.120 Rubio believes in this, and I think Rubio has got 1:59:39.280 --> 1:59:42.879 enough stature and status in Trump's world He's both Secretary 1:59:42.920 --> 1:59:46.920 State National Security Advisor that it is Rubio that is 1:59:46.960 --> 1:59:51.960 helping to steer him in this direction. And I think 1:59:52.040 --> 1:59:54.480 that there's no doubt in my mind that this is 1:59:54.520 --> 2:00:00.040 a Rubio project that Trump has adopted and he's you 2:00:00.000 --> 2:00:04.640 you know, this narco terrorism thing is you know, if 2:00:04.640 --> 2:00:07.480 you had to prove it, I don't know how they would, right, 2:00:07.680 --> 2:00:10.520 you know, where do you prove that the drug money 2:00:10.560 --> 2:00:14.480 is being used to fund terrorism. That's number one. Number two, 2:00:16.400 --> 2:00:19.680 what fentanyl. You know, this is not where our fentyl 2:00:19.680 --> 2:00:22.320 problem comes from. It's not in Venezuela. It comes from 2:00:22.360 --> 2:00:27.480 Mexico and China. So this is a pretext that's sort 2:00:27.520 --> 2:00:32.400 of been created. Look, I would feel better about this 2:00:32.520 --> 2:00:36.640 if the argument were we're trying to enforce democratic norms, 2:00:37.680 --> 2:00:39.520 then we can debate whether we should be using the 2:00:39.560 --> 2:00:42.600 military to do that. That should be the debate we 2:00:42.600 --> 2:00:46.160 should be having as a country about this Venezuela move. 2:00:46.200 --> 2:00:49.880 But instead they're essentially lying to us about the rationale 2:00:49.920 --> 2:00:52.760 for what they're doing, saying this is not about regime change, 2:00:52.800 --> 2:00:55.600 it's not about the democracy. This is about a specific thing. 2:00:56.280 --> 2:00:58.520 And yet what are we doing. It looks like we're 2:00:58.560 --> 2:01:03.600 on the verge of of overthrowing a government. So it 2:01:03.640 --> 2:01:05.680 feels like we're you know, it feels like we're doing 2:01:05.720 --> 2:01:07.800 this all the wrong way, Which is why a couple 2:01:07.800 --> 2:01:09.920 of weeks ago, in my toodcast time machine, I wanted 2:01:09.920 --> 2:01:16.560 to make the Panama Canal Anniversary the Liberation of Panama, 2:01:16.560 --> 2:01:20.600 if you will, an important story because anytime, you know, 2:01:20.640 --> 2:01:23.720 whenever we're involved and we lie about why we're involved, 2:01:23.960 --> 2:01:27.360 we do not help our long term ability to have 2:01:27.440 --> 2:01:31.240 influenced the right way in Latin America. And I just, 2:01:31.360 --> 2:01:35.040 you know, I am I want to see Maduro go. 2:01:36.080 --> 2:01:38.240 I am, you know, sort of like it's like it's 2:01:38.280 --> 2:01:40.680 like Saddam. I'm glad Saddam left. But was that the 2:01:40.680 --> 2:01:42.960 way to do it? I don't know if this is 2:01:43.000 --> 2:01:47.960 the right way to get rid of Adua. Next question 2:01:48.040 --> 2:01:50.600 comes from Dan, and then I'm going to get into 2:01:50.640 --> 2:01:55.040 my college football preview for the weekend. We'll do it 2:01:55.080 --> 2:01:57.440 through the prism of the college football playoff. He goes, 2:01:57.480 --> 2:02:00.000 I've been enjoying the podcast is always. Something I noticed 2:02:00.240 --> 2:02:02.680 is that the election coverage shows that Andrew Cuomo outperforms 2:02:02.720 --> 2:02:05.600 on Mam Donnie among voters without a college degree. NBC 2:02:05.680 --> 2:02:07.640 reports that Mam Donnie won only twenty six percent of 2:02:07.640 --> 2:02:10.400 white non college graduates, and similar trends appeared in the 2:02:10.440 --> 2:02:13.800 gubernatorial races. Despite overall wins, Democrats still seem to underperform 2:02:13.800 --> 2:02:17.040 among non college educated voters, raising concerns about their strengthen 2:02:17.080 --> 2:02:19.320 states like Michigan and Nebraska. Is it fair to interpret 2:02:19.360 --> 2:02:22.400 these results as evidence that Democrats have not yet repaired 2:02:22.400 --> 2:02:24.920 their image with working class white voters. If so, what 2:02:24.920 --> 2:02:27.120 steps should the party take to become more competitive with 2:02:27.200 --> 2:02:32.600 this group? Thanks Dan, Well, look, I hopefully you're listening 2:02:32.680 --> 2:02:34.760 to the answer this question after you've heard the interview 2:02:34.760 --> 2:02:37.040 with Adam Gentilsen. It's exactly what he's trying to do, 2:02:37.080 --> 2:02:40.080 which is, how do you get you know, the irony 2:02:40.240 --> 2:02:46.160 is you know, I think Democrats have struggled culturally to 2:02:46.200 --> 2:02:50.280 connect to this group of voters for some time. They 2:02:50.360 --> 2:02:52.440 used to be sort of Democrats and they were just 2:02:52.480 --> 2:02:55.840 sort of Democrats, and it was they were culturally Democrats 2:02:55.920 --> 2:02:59.520 that and the Democrats they thought economically were looking out 2:02:59.520 --> 2:03:02.440 for him as is That explains why there were two 2:03:02.520 --> 2:03:06.320 US senators in Nebraska for you know, not an insignificant 2:03:06.360 --> 2:03:09.600 period of time, and almost always one a state that 2:03:09.680 --> 2:03:13.120 you know, is the birthplace of the the perhaps the 2:03:13.160 --> 2:03:20.960 original Prairie populace William Jennings. Bryan, Right, So I think 2:03:21.000 --> 2:03:23.600 you're right to point out those things. I think this 2:03:23.640 --> 2:03:25.480 is to me the great danger of the midterms on 2:03:25.520 --> 2:03:29.960 the Democrats, which is they don't need they could do 2:03:31.080 --> 2:03:34.920 as mediocre as they did with non college educated whites 2:03:34.920 --> 2:03:37.040 in the midterms because they won't turn out in the 2:03:37.040 --> 2:03:39.240 same numbers that they'll turn out in a presidential election, 2:03:40.120 --> 2:03:44.240 giving Democrats an opportunity because they'll they'll sort of over 2:03:44.400 --> 2:03:48.800 index on their more frequent voters and college education voters, 2:03:48.840 --> 2:03:51.120 and they will be a bigger share of the electorate 2:03:51.160 --> 2:03:53.640 in a midterm than they will be in a general. 2:03:53.680 --> 2:03:57.200 It's why, you know, have they been a presidential like 2:03:57.400 --> 2:04:00.120 turnout in say Virginia, Maybe she only wins by eight 2:04:00.240 --> 2:04:05.080 instead of fifteen, and maybe if you got although you know, 2:04:05.120 --> 2:04:08.840 to me, the New Jersey thing is why I why 2:04:08.920 --> 2:04:12.400 I believe this was a Trump referendum. When you have 2:04:13.200 --> 2:04:16.080 the Republican candidate actually getting more raw vote than he 2:04:16.160 --> 2:04:19.800 got four years earlier, but he lost by ten percentage 2:04:19.800 --> 2:04:22.680 points more than when he lost before, shows you a 2:04:22.720 --> 2:04:24.320 whole bunch of voters that didn't show up four years 2:04:24.320 --> 2:04:27.800 ago that decided to show up. Well, you didn't have 2:04:27.840 --> 2:04:30.560 an equal basically, a whole bunch of presidential only voters 2:04:30.600 --> 2:04:33.320 decided to show up in a governor's race on the 2:04:33.320 --> 2:04:36.440 Democratic side. You didn't get the presidential only voters to 2:04:36.440 --> 2:04:39.080 suddenly show up in a governor's race on the Republican side. 2:04:39.160 --> 2:04:43.120 And then you can see how lopsided things can get. 2:04:43.440 --> 2:04:48.760 I think the biggest, the potential worst outcome for the 2:04:49.840 --> 2:04:55.080 Democrats hopes in twenty twenty eight. Weirdly will be thinking 2:04:55.120 --> 2:04:56.920 that if they win the House in the Senate, that 2:04:56.960 --> 2:04:59.760 they've solved their problems and it's just a it's you know, 2:04:59.800 --> 2:05:01.960 there going to just coast to the presidency like what 2:05:02.040 --> 2:05:05.520 happened in six going into eight, and I would just 2:05:05.560 --> 2:05:09.440 say it's very possible they could have a midterm revival. 2:05:09.640 --> 2:05:14.000 Eighty six midterms were terrific midterms for the Democrats, and 2:05:14.040 --> 2:05:17.080 then they after getting clobbered in eighty four, and then 2:05:17.080 --> 2:05:20.920 they go and get clobbered in eighty eight. So I 2:05:21.000 --> 2:05:25.680 do think the Democratic makeup of their more likely voter 2:05:26.520 --> 2:05:29.600 automatically puts them at advantage to overperform in the midterms. 2:05:29.600 --> 2:05:31.880 It's why even in a bad midterm year like twenty 2:05:31.920 --> 2:05:35.920 two was, they didn't get clobberd the way they that 2:05:36.200 --> 2:05:39.000 an out party gets clobbered or an inn party gets clobbered, 2:05:39.040 --> 2:05:41.800 simply because more of their voters are just are more 2:05:41.840 --> 2:05:46.920 regular voters. No, I think that the party still has 2:05:46.920 --> 2:05:50.720 a problem and until it you know, in fairness to 2:05:50.760 --> 2:05:53.760 the party on this one, neither Virginia nor New Jersey 2:05:53.840 --> 2:05:57.720 is a huge It had a rural vote that the 2:05:57.800 --> 2:06:03.560 candidate had to make an effort. That's not going to 2:06:03.600 --> 2:06:05.880 be the case in trying to win an election in 2:06:05.960 --> 2:06:08.120 North Carolina. That's not going to be the case. In 2:06:08.160 --> 2:06:10.240 trying to win in Ohio. That's not going to be 2:06:10.280 --> 2:06:13.480 the case in trying to win in Iowa or Alaska, 2:06:13.720 --> 2:06:17.160 or Kansas or Mississippi or even Texas. You know, you 2:06:17.240 --> 2:06:19.920 can't win Texas just by winning the cities that a 2:06:20.120 --> 2:06:22.600 Roar came close, but he couldn't do it. He want 2:06:22.640 --> 2:06:24.360 all the he won all the cities, and he won 2:06:24.440 --> 2:06:27.880 all the the big media markets, but he couldn't. He 2:06:27.920 --> 2:06:30.120 got killed in the ex serbs and the world voters. 2:06:30.120 --> 2:06:32.960 So uh yeah, I don't think they've solved any other 2:06:33.040 --> 2:06:35.880 problems on that front. And I still think they the 2:06:36.520 --> 2:06:40.240 Democrats are you know, they have to be seen as 2:06:40.280 --> 2:06:45.440 a stronger party. Strength And I know that's an elusive word, 2:06:45.440 --> 2:06:48.840 but I think strength's a big, a big thing with 2:06:48.880 --> 2:06:51.120 this with with this voting group. If they're going to 2:06:51.160 --> 2:06:55.400 try to reconnect back with them, and you know, the 2:06:55.480 --> 2:06:58.240 economy will be an entree. It's not lost on me. 2:06:58.280 --> 2:07:01.320 If you think about it. The last four Democratic presidents 2:07:01.320 --> 2:07:06.400 in my lifetime who've won all one during an economic downturn. 2:07:07.400 --> 2:07:09.760 You know, it's possible that Democrats are just you know, 2:07:10.080 --> 2:07:13.160 in my lifetime have culturally been on the wrong side 2:07:13.160 --> 2:07:15.720 of where the country is, and Republicans have culturally been 2:07:15.720 --> 2:07:18.640 on the right side where the country is. But that 2:07:18.760 --> 2:07:24.120 Democrats when the economy's in the tank. It was true 2:07:24.120 --> 2:07:27.960 in seventy six, it's true in ninety two, and although 2:07:27.960 --> 2:07:30.720 the economy was recovering by the time Trump Clinton won, 2:07:30.800 --> 2:07:32.800 but the perception was it was in the tank. It 2:07:32.840 --> 2:07:36.720 was true in eight, it's true in twenty right, it 2:07:36.760 --> 2:07:42.160 was certainly virus related, but still it was an economic downturn. Sadly, 2:07:42.240 --> 2:07:44.680 it may be that there's an economic downturn in twenty 2:07:44.680 --> 2:07:48.240 eight and that powers everything. And let me just tell 2:07:48.280 --> 2:07:50.200 you this, when you have an election that's all about 2:07:50.240 --> 2:07:53.600 the economy, it suddenly papers over all of your different 2:07:54.280 --> 2:08:06.440 interestscript problems, right because everything becomes about that. So for Miami, 2:08:06.480 --> 2:08:08.560 it's their last home game. I know you're on pins 2:08:08.600 --> 2:08:14.280 and needles. The College Football Playoff Committee is getting a 2:08:14.320 --> 2:08:17.480 little better at giving some respect to the University of Miami, 2:08:17.560 --> 2:08:21.879 though not A. Ton, the guy who runs the committee, 2:08:21.880 --> 2:08:25.320 who was the spokesperson, basically said Miami is the only 2:08:25.360 --> 2:08:27.880 team in the ACC that has won a decent non 2:08:27.920 --> 2:08:33.560 conference game, like completely forgetting that Ala Fingbama lost to 2:08:33.600 --> 2:08:37.080 Florida State in Week one and so what you see 2:08:37.120 --> 2:08:39.760 as you see. And this is why I do not 2:08:39.920 --> 2:08:43.240 trust the ESPN Invitational Committee. I think all of these 2:08:43.240 --> 2:08:47.120 athletic directors and they're all I mean, my god, they've 2:08:47.160 --> 2:08:49.800 all realized they work for ESPN and the SEC and 2:08:49.840 --> 2:08:54.320 nobody else. Apparently. It is it is, it is why 2:08:54.320 --> 2:08:57.000 we have to get rid of this committee. They are 2:08:57.040 --> 2:09:00.560 not you know, I and if yous me, you know, 2:09:01.000 --> 2:09:03.160 you could say I'm being you know, yeah, I'm being 2:09:03.280 --> 2:09:06.920 biased towards the ACC. My bias is I want the 2:09:06.960 --> 2:09:11.000 ACC to get treated fairly. I'm just asking for fair treatment. 2:09:11.280 --> 2:09:13.400 This is a committee, and this is a network that 2:09:13.440 --> 2:09:16.480 has already punished the ACC two years ago with denying 2:09:16.680 --> 2:09:20.600 an undefeated ACC champion access to the playoff of Florida State. 2:09:21.200 --> 2:09:24.400 This is a ESPN Invitational committee that denied the number 2:09:24.400 --> 2:09:27.000 one ranked offense in the country with ten wins and 2:09:27.040 --> 2:09:29.800 two losses, the Dederus from Miami. They did not put 2:09:29.840 --> 2:09:32.120 him in the playoff simply because they were in ACC 2:09:32.160 --> 2:09:35.480 school the exact same resume, but an SEC school, and 2:09:35.560 --> 2:09:38.560 I promise you they would have made it when you're 2:09:38.720 --> 2:09:42.360 literally the top ranked offense in the country, because supposedly 2:09:42.360 --> 2:09:45.920 those outside metrics matter. No, their metrics matter only when 2:09:45.960 --> 2:09:49.840 it is about getting the matchups that they want for 2:09:49.880 --> 2:09:54.040 the television show. And now it is a head scratcher 2:09:54.040 --> 2:09:55.600 to me that they didn't think cam Ward was good 2:09:55.600 --> 2:09:57.800 for their television show. I would argue cam Ward would 2:09:57.800 --> 2:10:00.360 have been great for their television show last year in 2:10:00.400 --> 2:10:05.280 the exhibition that is the ESPN Invitational. But the fact 2:10:05.360 --> 2:10:08.920 that the committee is literally lying about the ACC's resume 2:10:09.080 --> 2:10:13.360 on national television with Rhys Davis or misinformed, okay, lying 2:10:13.400 --> 2:10:16.360 and inquires motive, But there is a motive here. They're 2:10:16.360 --> 2:10:18.240 going out of their way to make the case against 2:10:18.280 --> 2:10:21.760 the ACC because apparently, if you're if you're in the 2:10:21.800 --> 2:10:25.480 ACC and you have a competitive conference, your conference must suck. 2:10:25.720 --> 2:10:27.839 If you're in the SEC and have a competitive conference, 2:10:27.880 --> 2:10:30.200 it's proof that your conference is great. I mean, I'm 2:10:30.240 --> 2:10:35.320 just sorry, it's subjective bullshit on this, Okay, Yes, is 2:10:35.360 --> 2:10:38.600 it true that the SEC program spend more money collectively 2:10:38.680 --> 2:10:41.440 than the ACC does. So you assume you have more talent, yes, 2:10:41.600 --> 2:10:44.160 but you know is produced like something I like if 2:10:44.200 --> 2:10:45.840 you want to sit here and play that game. The 2:10:45.880 --> 2:10:48.760 ACC has I think produced the second most amount of 2:10:48.840 --> 2:10:51.960 first round draft picks over the last ten years, right 2:10:52.000 --> 2:10:54.000 behind the SEC and ahead of the Big ten in 2:10:54.040 --> 2:10:58.520 the Big twelve. But again we can you can find 2:10:58.560 --> 2:11:00.520 little things like that all the time to slice and 2:11:00.560 --> 2:11:04.800 dice things. But they went out of their way to 2:11:05.000 --> 2:11:08.000 punish to and it would have been some other ACC 2:11:08.120 --> 2:11:11.160 school and they've done it. And again this goes back 2:11:11.200 --> 2:11:15.320 to the where the hell is the commissioner Jim Phillips 2:11:15.640 --> 2:11:19.880 is way too meek uh in this conversation he lets 2:11:19.920 --> 2:11:22.840 Greg Sankei go move around with them up and down. 2:11:22.880 --> 2:11:26.080 I told you last week about my source that that 2:11:26.720 --> 2:11:30.000 told me how much that every week Greg Greg Sanki 2:11:30.080 --> 2:11:32.520 must have had a hissy fit. That that Herbstreet and 2:11:32.560 --> 2:11:36.600 Fowler were out doing a Texas Tech game. That must 2:11:36.640 --> 2:11:39.880 have freaked them out. But that every week he lobbies 2:11:39.880 --> 2:11:41.960 that you must be in the SEC. You must be 2:11:42.000 --> 2:11:46.000 in the SEC. And again I get it. ESPN's in 2:11:46.000 --> 2:11:48.200 business with the SEC, but they're also in business with 2:11:48.240 --> 2:11:51.400 the ACC, and I think the ACC could be suing 2:11:51.600 --> 2:11:54.800 ESPN for breach of contract. This is a network that 2:11:54.840 --> 2:11:57.320 has gone out of their way to diminish the value 2:11:57.320 --> 2:12:01.080 of the ACC. The ACC is increased its value, and 2:12:01.360 --> 2:12:04.720 ESPN tries to diminish the value of the ACC, and 2:12:04.800 --> 2:12:08.400 they're your biggest business partner. The ACEC should be in court. 2:12:09.200 --> 2:12:16.400 Don't sue each other. Sue ESPN for essentially for diminishing 2:12:16.680 --> 2:12:21.160 the value of ACC sports in general and ACC football 2:12:21.160 --> 2:12:25.720 in particular. I'm sorry the lack of pushback, and again 2:12:25.760 --> 2:12:29.520 it's you know, ESPN controls the college football playoff, a mistake, 2:12:29.560 --> 2:12:31.600 which is why you got to get rid of this committee. 2:12:31.640 --> 2:12:35.040 We ultimately got get rid of this committee. There is 2:12:35.120 --> 2:12:37.160 a way to make all of this and on the 2:12:37.160 --> 2:12:41.160 field issue, you can you know, if you basically say, 2:12:41.520 --> 2:12:44.000 you know, if a conference, i'd love to see sort 2:12:44.040 --> 2:12:49.160 of actually an eighteen playoff that essentially had each conference 2:12:49.200 --> 2:12:52.280 have their own sort of six team round robin of 2:12:52.320 --> 2:12:55.600 some sort that decided who their representative was in the 2:12:55.640 --> 2:12:59.160 eight and you'd have your four conference champions, your group 2:12:59.200 --> 2:13:01.880 of five champions after they had a little tournament. But again, 2:13:02.000 --> 2:13:04.080 you had to win on the field to get in, 2:13:04.160 --> 2:13:06.160 and then you might have and you might have three 2:13:06.200 --> 2:13:10.000 wildcards which Notre Dame would be eligible for, and the 2:13:10.040 --> 2:13:13.080 next two highest winning percentages in the power for just 2:13:13.120 --> 2:13:16.480 like the NFL wildcard works. And yes, sometimes you might 2:13:16.560 --> 2:13:19.680 have somebody left out, but it was done on the 2:13:19.720 --> 2:13:23.040 field with metrics. Everybody understands at the beginning. You know 2:13:23.080 --> 2:13:26.080 what nobody says from this committee. They can't tell you 2:13:26.120 --> 2:13:28.680 to this day. What matters more your wins are your losses. 2:13:29.640 --> 2:13:32.240 It's a win right. If they want to make the 2:13:32.320 --> 2:13:35.120 case that Miami is in, they will make a big 2:13:35.120 --> 2:13:37.400 deal out of their wins. If you want to make 2:13:37.400 --> 2:13:39.360 the case that Miami is out, you will make a 2:13:39.360 --> 2:13:42.400 big deal about their losses. Dinno. With Notre Dame, what's 2:13:42.440 --> 2:13:46.200 the case to put them in? They lost? Two of 2:13:46.240 --> 2:13:48.600 their losses were by a collective of four points against 2:13:48.640 --> 2:13:50.800 two of the most talented teams in the country. What's 2:13:50.840 --> 2:13:53.280 the case not to put Notre Dame in? The two 2:13:53.280 --> 2:13:55.720 times they faced talented teams in the country that belong 2:13:55.760 --> 2:13:59.200 in the playoffs, they couldn't beat them. But Notre Dame 2:13:59.280 --> 2:14:02.360 is a brand. Look, Miami has been a brand. Miami 2:14:02.440 --> 2:14:05.160 is the number one rated ACC school as far as 2:14:05.240 --> 2:14:08.200 television audience is concerned. It has been the last couple 2:14:08.240 --> 2:14:11.360 of years. You know, for the most part, Miami's been 2:14:11.400 --> 2:14:15.120 a brand and that usually helps them in situations like this. 2:14:15.480 --> 2:14:19.320 I do believe when college football continues this what they've 2:14:19.360 --> 2:14:22.320 done to the conference with the SEC and the Big 2:14:22.360 --> 2:14:25.080 Ten have done everybody else, Miami will probably be a 2:14:25.160 --> 2:14:29.000 half And unfortunately, my friends at NC State, Miami's opponent 2:14:29.080 --> 2:14:31.520 this week may end up being a poor have not. Now. 2:14:31.560 --> 2:14:33.920 I don't think that's healthy for college football. I think 2:14:33.960 --> 2:14:36.839 we could be doing this a better way. But anyway, 2:14:36.880 --> 2:14:42.920 here we are, so college football playoff rant over. It 2:14:42.960 --> 2:14:46.160 does look like Miami's path is not crazy anymore. They 2:14:46.200 --> 2:14:49.000 finally have them. They're still a bit under ranked. You know, 2:14:49.120 --> 2:14:51.880 are you're really ranking Miami behind Utah? No offense? To 2:14:51.920 --> 2:14:54.960 my producer, Lauren is a big Utah guy, and you 2:14:55.000 --> 2:14:56.800 know they do the you the wrong way. It's not 2:14:56.880 --> 2:15:02.160 this way, guys, It's like this, but that's okay. That said, 2:15:02.480 --> 2:15:03.880 do you think I have a lot of confidence in 2:15:05.120 --> 2:15:08.720 this coaching staff to be ready to put a licking 2:15:08.800 --> 2:15:13.760 on NC State on Senior Day at Miami? You know, 2:15:14.040 --> 2:15:17.240 I got a sixty five percent confidence level, but I 2:15:17.280 --> 2:15:21.040 don't have a ninety percent confidence level. You know, Miami 2:15:21.080 --> 2:15:23.840 should be able to put a number up on NC State. 2:15:24.320 --> 2:15:27.080 A forty five to ten victory should be what they 2:15:27.120 --> 2:15:30.200 do if they want to make the playoff. They kind 2:15:30.200 --> 2:15:33.680 of need a forty five to ten. But if you 2:15:33.720 --> 2:15:35.600 told me this was a thirty one, twenty four to 2:15:35.600 --> 2:15:40.480 twenty seven game that Miami eked out or somehow screwed 2:15:40.520 --> 2:15:43.080 it up at the end due to poor coaching decisions, 2:15:44.360 --> 2:15:47.040 I let's just say I fear it a little bit now. 2:15:47.080 --> 2:15:49.600 I don't think NC State has the defense and I 2:15:49.600 --> 2:15:54.880 think Miami's defense. You know, again, we're I'm going to 2:15:54.960 --> 2:15:57.600 learn a lot about how much these players want to 2:15:57.640 --> 2:16:01.680 play for these coaches, because if they do. I did 2:16:01.720 --> 2:16:03.360 not like the first half of what I saw in 2:16:03.400 --> 2:16:06.880 the Miami Syracuse game. It looked like it didn't look 2:16:06.920 --> 2:16:09.000 like I mean, it does feel like the offensive coordinator, 2:16:09.000 --> 2:16:12.320 Shannon Dawson is just out of ideas they continue. They 2:16:12.360 --> 2:16:17.000 are clearly not comfortable with Carson Beck making some decisions 2:16:17.040 --> 2:16:21.960 because they seem to fear putting him in positions to 2:16:22.640 --> 2:16:25.520 uh win it, you know, to either make a big 2:16:25.560 --> 2:16:28.080 player potentially, you know, put him in a precarious position. 2:16:29.880 --> 2:16:33.520 It's a shame how they coach it, how they do this. 2:16:33.600 --> 2:16:38.920 So we'll see. I'm nervous. I'm very nervous. I'm not 2:16:38.959 --> 2:16:40.720 gonna lie to you. I'm very nervous about this game 2:16:41.120 --> 2:16:46.400 because I actually think coach Crystal Ball is feeling the pressure. 2:16:47.560 --> 2:16:51.320 I think Shannon Dawson's feeling the pressure. And sometimes pressure 2:16:51.360 --> 2:16:54.360 is good on people respond to the pressure and they 2:16:54.400 --> 2:16:58.600 give you their best work, and sometimes the pressure puts 2:16:58.640 --> 2:17:02.440 them and they get parallel La. We'll see. The biggest 2:17:02.440 --> 2:17:07.119 game on the board as far as Miami's playoff rankings 2:17:07.160 --> 2:17:11.160 are concerned, is actually at the sight of where game 2:17:11.240 --> 2:17:14.440 Day decided to go, which is an interesting decision. They're 2:17:14.480 --> 2:17:17.879 in Pittsburgh and they're for the Notre Dame pit game. 2:17:18.360 --> 2:17:21.400 This is arguably Notre Dame's toughest game left, which is 2:17:21.520 --> 2:17:24.920 really so they're there because you know, Notre Dame has 2:17:25.080 --> 2:17:26.760 they can't lose in order to have a shot at 2:17:26.760 --> 2:17:28.160 the playoff. They went out, They're going to get in 2:17:28.280 --> 2:17:30.600 because a ten and two Notre Dame team will always 2:17:30.600 --> 2:17:33.720 make the playoff no matter who their two losses are. 2:17:33.720 --> 2:17:36.200 To and no matter if the ten wins are against 2:17:36.280 --> 2:17:40.200 the entire MAC conference, it's Notre Dame. You know, it's 2:17:40.240 --> 2:17:44.439 TV show people, So as long as it's an invitational, 2:17:44.480 --> 2:17:48.640 they'll always get the invite. Pitt's been an interesting team 2:17:48.640 --> 2:17:50.840 ever since they put in this freshman quarterback. He's been 2:17:50.840 --> 2:17:54.600 on He's lit it up. A patent our doozy team. Usually, 2:17:54.680 --> 2:17:56.400 isn't this free flowing on offense? 2:17:56.520 --> 2:17:56.760 Right? 2:17:58.680 --> 2:18:00.800 Miami has to play Pitt last game of the year, 2:18:00.840 --> 2:18:07.400 so this will be a common opponent. So everything about 2:18:07.400 --> 2:18:09.240 this game I have to I'm going to be watching 2:18:09.280 --> 2:18:11.520 every inch of it. It goes. It's on, it's the 2:18:11.520 --> 2:18:13.600 noon game, it'll be on before the Miami game, which 2:18:13.640 --> 2:18:16.400 is a three thirty. This is a huge game for 2:18:16.480 --> 2:18:18.680 the playoff. It's a huge game for Notre Dame. It's 2:18:18.680 --> 2:18:21.000 a huge game for the ACC. It's a huge game 2:18:21.000 --> 2:18:27.480 for Miami. It is this is interesting, right, what's better 2:18:27.520 --> 2:18:31.360 for Miami Notre Dame winning. I think I want Notre 2:18:31.440 --> 2:18:33.760 Dame to win by a field goal and then Miami 2:18:33.800 --> 2:18:37.760 to beat Pit by thirty. That's probably the best outcome 2:18:38.480 --> 2:18:41.480 because this will be if Miami and Notre Dame are 2:18:41.480 --> 2:18:45.120 both ten and two the Pit game will be the 2:18:45.120 --> 2:18:50.440 most recent comparative they'll both have played at PIT, So 2:18:52.080 --> 2:18:54.480 I have a feeling Pit and by the way, Pit 2:18:54.600 --> 2:18:57.520 seven to two, they're not out of this, all right, 2:18:57.600 --> 2:18:59.720 I'm not, you know. I don't know if they can 2:18:59.840 --> 2:19:02.600 make get all the way through their schedule and finish 2:19:02.680 --> 2:19:05.680 it off right. The two of their two of their 2:19:05.680 --> 2:19:08.240 next three games or Notre Dame and Miami, and the 2:19:08.280 --> 2:19:11.360 other one is Georgia Tech. So pitt literally might be 2:19:11.440 --> 2:19:14.359 facing three playoff teams at the end of their season. 2:19:14.920 --> 2:19:16.640 But they certainly are going to have an impact on 2:19:16.680 --> 2:19:21.160 Notre dames chances, Miami's chances, and Georgia Tech's chances. And 2:19:21.280 --> 2:19:24.400 they it's their last three games. So look, Pitt's had 2:19:24.480 --> 2:19:26.560 kind of an easy schedule. We still don't know how 2:19:26.560 --> 2:19:28.240 they lost to West Virginia, and I think they're trying 2:19:28.240 --> 2:19:30.040 to figure out how they lost to West Virginia and 2:19:30.080 --> 2:19:33.280 then their only other losses Louisville, which is a loss 2:19:33.280 --> 2:19:38.400 that Miami also has, but they've not They've not had 2:19:38.440 --> 2:19:41.840 the toughest of schedules. They opened with Duquine and Central 2:19:41.879 --> 2:19:44.640 Michigan and then West Virginia was their third game of 2:19:44.640 --> 2:19:47.520 the year. Which because it's a it's a regional rivalry, 2:19:47.959 --> 2:19:54.160 you throw the records out, right, But it's it's easily 2:19:54.360 --> 2:19:57.800 the single most important game as far as the playoff 2:19:57.879 --> 2:20:02.000 is concerned. That's on the board. A few other game games. Uh, 2:20:02.040 --> 2:20:04.920 do you buy that Wisconsin can play two good games 2:20:04.920 --> 2:20:06.960 in a row and give Indiana and Indiana plays two 2:20:07.000 --> 2:20:10.560 bad games in a row? Hard hard to see that one. 2:20:10.600 --> 2:20:18.520 This one's at Indiana. Boy, after this, Indiana only has Purdue, 2:20:19.440 --> 2:20:21.560 you know, the end of the season. And that's that 2:20:21.680 --> 2:20:25.440 could be fun, right, even though Produe is winless, they're 2:20:25.440 --> 2:20:27.560 gonna they care about this game. It's do you have 2:20:27.600 --> 2:20:31.000 to throw the records out? We shall see South Carolina, 2:20:31.040 --> 2:20:33.520 Texas A and M. I was not going to pay 2:20:33.520 --> 2:20:35.560 attention to this game. And one of my favorite betting 2:20:35.600 --> 2:20:38.600 podcasts made the point that South Carolina is coming off 2:20:38.600 --> 2:20:41.600 of bye after firing their offensive coordinator, a guy named Shula, 2:20:41.879 --> 2:20:46.920 one of the grandson of Don Shula, And uh that 2:20:46.959 --> 2:20:49.320 they're gonna make you know, and they already know that. 2:20:49.360 --> 2:20:53.400 Miami and other schools are already sniffing around Leonora Sellers 2:20:53.440 --> 2:20:58.000 for the for their portal QB for next season. I 2:20:58.000 --> 2:21:01.440 have a feeling that South Carolina offense is going to 2:21:01.440 --> 2:21:06.080 be a bit different showcasing Sellers, let him do his 2:21:06.160 --> 2:21:08.879 thing a lot more. It's going to be an open offense. 2:21:08.920 --> 2:21:12.160 So either it works and we see an exciting game 2:21:12.320 --> 2:21:15.600 and Lenora's sellers is the is the quarterback we all 2:21:15.640 --> 2:21:19.240 thought he was at the beginning of this season, or 2:21:19.320 --> 2:21:22.840 an m just rolls and they win by three touchdowns. Anyway, 2:21:22.959 --> 2:21:26.440 it's certainly worth turning on that game. Don't sleep on 2:21:26.520 --> 2:21:29.080 South Florida Navy South. You know, this is just the 2:21:29.120 --> 2:21:31.800 type of game that could turn into a weird shootout. 2:21:31.840 --> 2:21:34.240 The way Navy now can score, South Florida can score, 2:21:34.280 --> 2:21:38.360 it will this This shouldn't be close, but it is 2:21:38.400 --> 2:21:40.680 at the Naval Academy. It will be a little chilly 2:21:41.280 --> 2:21:44.680 in Annapolis. You know, this is just the type of 2:21:44.680 --> 2:21:49.160 game that USF could blow. Do you believe in Oklahoma? 2:21:49.560 --> 2:21:53.080 I don't so I think Alabama pays them, But it 2:21:53.160 --> 2:21:58.440 is worth noting Alabama is not the best favorite all 2:21:58.480 --> 2:22:02.600 the time. Is Caleb de Borera so far? But I 2:22:02.680 --> 2:22:05.679 just I just you know, I just don't buy that 2:22:05.680 --> 2:22:08.840 that Oklahoma can score much on them. And do you 2:22:09.560 --> 2:22:11.400 how do you think they have a good I know 2:22:11.440 --> 2:22:13.640 they statistically have a good defense. Do you believe they 2:22:13.640 --> 2:22:17.240 have a good defense? Have they really played anybody? Just 2:22:17.240 --> 2:22:19.000 something to think about it. I guess their Tennessee win 2:22:19.320 --> 2:22:22.280 that was that was a pretty good performance. You got 2:22:22.280 --> 2:22:25.519 to give them that. But obviously still has playoff implications 2:22:25.600 --> 2:22:30.240 right now, Oklahoma has to win, and I guess Alabama 2:22:30.240 --> 2:22:32.679 doesn't because it would only be their second loss, and 2:22:32.680 --> 2:22:36.360 and you know they and apparently their first loss doesn't 2:22:36.360 --> 2:22:38.720 even count anymore as far as the College Football Committee 2:22:38.800 --> 2:22:44.959 is concerned. Other than that, Iowa USC. You know, USC 2:22:45.160 --> 2:22:48.400 still has the outside chance. Iowa's lost. Iowa had it all, 2:22:48.520 --> 2:22:51.119 it was there for the taken. If they beat Oregon. 2:22:51.200 --> 2:22:54.560 This game is a whole, but it's a big a 2:22:54.600 --> 2:22:57.880 lot different. It suddenly becomes a playoff game. Now does 2:22:57.959 --> 2:23:00.800 Iowa know it's over? And if they do know it's over, 2:23:01.240 --> 2:23:05.400 USC could pace them. The only other game that might 2:23:05.520 --> 2:23:09.360 be intriguing to keep an eye on, of course, is 2:23:09.400 --> 2:23:14.199 Georgia and Texas. Texas can't lose, they have to keep winning. 2:23:15.200 --> 2:23:19.000 This game's at Georgia. There's been a part of me 2:23:19.080 --> 2:23:22.560 that's wondered, what does all the arch manning commentary of 2:23:22.600 --> 2:23:24.640 the last two months. What happens to all of it? 2:23:25.120 --> 2:23:31.520 If suddenly Texas beach Georgia this week, beach Texas A 2:23:31.560 --> 2:23:33.320 and M in the last game of the year, and 2:23:33.480 --> 2:23:36.680 is sitting there at ten and two, and suddenly, with 2:23:36.800 --> 2:23:41.240 wins over Georgia and Texas A and M, they're probably 2:23:41.280 --> 2:23:45.120 a top ten team if that's what happens. Oh, by 2:23:45.160 --> 2:23:49.480 the way, so that's anyway. Let's see what arch Manning 2:23:49.480 --> 2:23:52.400 looks like. Let's see if the Georgia defense. You know, 2:23:52.720 --> 2:23:55.440 I think Georgia can score on anybody. They've proven that 2:23:55.440 --> 2:23:57.280 that offense has turned out to be pretty good this year. 2:23:59.040 --> 2:24:03.320 This Texas defense show up and slow down Georgia. Obviously. 2:24:04.000 --> 2:24:06.360 The good news is this is the primetime game and 2:24:06.400 --> 2:24:08.359 we'll all have a lot of time. 2:24:08.200 --> 2:24:08.600 To watch it. 2:24:08.640 --> 2:24:12.520 So with that, let's go Canes and I'll see you 2:24:12.520 --> 2:24:12.920 next week.