1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 1: Eastern on Applecarclay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:21,920 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:24,200 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 2: Investors are partying like it's nineteen ninety nine. Investors an Oracle, 7 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 2: that is. And that's because the last time the stock 8 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:33,199 Speaker 2: rally this much was nineteen ninety nine. Stocks up. As 9 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 2: John just said, nearly. You weren't even a line back then, 10 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 2: the two of you. 11 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 3: Oh go on, we remember the dot com bubble days. 12 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:43,920 Speaker 2: So I want to bring in Annie Rograna, now Bloomberg 13 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:46,880 Speaker 2: Intelligence technology analyst. He was around in nineteen ninety nine, 14 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:50,919 Speaker 2: coming to us from our Chicago bureau. Okay, so we 15 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 2: know that you know it was a blowout quarter AI 16 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 2: just driving things there. But I want to talk a 17 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 2: little bit about traditional software, which is what this company 18 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:02,480 Speaker 2: is all about, the fact that that's not really working 19 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 2: at Oracle. But it doesn't seem like investors care today. 20 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 4: On rug Yeah, so your Oracle is a very unique 21 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 4: company because it has your traditional software, but also a 22 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 4: few years ago it started a cloud business called Oracle 23 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 4: Cloud Infrastructure, something very similar to what Aws tees or 24 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 4: Microsoft Azure. And one of the advantages it has is 25 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:24,680 Speaker 4: it just rents out it's you know, servers for people 26 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 4: to go out and train their AI models or you know, 27 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:30,400 Speaker 4: run their applications on it. So this is really a 28 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:32,560 Speaker 4: new business for them, you know, it just came up 29 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 4: the last few years, and that's where the biggest growth 30 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:36,480 Speaker 4: is and that's what's driving the stock. 31 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 3: That's what's driving the stock, and that's probably where Oracle 32 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:42,760 Speaker 3: is driving its spending as well. What's happening with the 33 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:46,039 Speaker 3: rest of the company, it's operations, its software business. Is 34 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 3: it still cutting costs for instance, and reducing headcount? 35 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you're absolutely right about it. So the 36 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 4: advantage Oracle has compared to let's say a company like 37 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 4: core v for Nebus, is that it has a very 38 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 4: high margin database business and very high margin application business. 39 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 4: These businesses have gross margins, you know, let's say, north 40 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:10,080 Speaker 4: of ninety percent. Now when you marry that with a 41 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 4: massive AI infrastructure business where you need to spend a 42 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:16,920 Speaker 4: lot of money, that's problematic for somebody that doesn't have that. 43 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 4: But Oracle has that luxury that it can spend billions 44 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 4: of dollars. You know, before yesterday we were thinking they're 45 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 4: going to spend you know, somewhere in the low thirty 46 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:29,080 Speaker 4: billion range, which was already higher than what they had guided. 47 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 4: And you know, even the street was expecting. They came 48 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 4: out and said they're going to spend over thirty five 49 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 4: billion and you know the next financial year. So that's 50 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 4: a lot of money going into expanding data center, buying 51 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 4: chips by you know, creating a new infrastructure to fulfill 52 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 4: this demand. 53 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:46,960 Speaker 2: Now, also we should note that a number of analysts 54 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 2: are raising the price target on Oracle. TD Cowan caught 55 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 2: my eye, raising the target to three hundred and seventy 56 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:56,359 Speaker 2: five dollars from three hundred and twenty five dollars a share. 57 00:02:56,639 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 2: But when you look at the competition here, Microsoft, Amazon, 58 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 2: on Alphabet, what does Oracle or how does Oracle differentiate 59 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 2: itself not only for the customer the client, but for investors. 60 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:11,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, And one of the things I would say is 61 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 4: everybody is having a good time in this particular party. 62 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:16,919 Speaker 5: It's not just you know, one company that's gaining it. 63 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 4: It's just the size of their business is far smaller 64 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 4: than it is for let's say AWS or Microsoft. You know, 65 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 4: in the last financial year, the revenue was you know, 66 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 4: roughly about ten billion or so. Aws's rund rate is 67 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 4: one hundred and twenty five billion. Microsoft's business is seventy 68 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 4: five billion. Google's business is fifty billion. So you know, please, 69 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 4: you know, you've got to take that with the context 70 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 4: of how big Oracle's cloud infrastructure is compared to some 71 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 4: of the bigger vendors. 72 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 3: Out there, you know, honorog it feels like Oracle kind 73 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 3: of came from out of nowhere with its you know, 74 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 3: contributions to the AI space and being such a big player. Certainly, 75 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 3: the bookings of almost half a trillion dollars caught my 76 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 3: eye on It's more than four times what it was 77 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 3: the same time last year. Are there any other kind 78 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 3: of dark horses out there that you would be keeping 79 00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 3: your eye on that could be the next Oracle, which 80 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:07,320 Speaker 3: is already feels like it's the next in VideA. 81 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think one of the things you have to 82 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:11,840 Speaker 4: think about it is it's not easy to come up 83 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 4: with this structure or a business like this, because you 84 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:17,359 Speaker 4: need billions of dollars to create a data center or 85 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:20,039 Speaker 4: to lease out a data center then buy equipment like 86 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 4: in Vidia chips and computing equipment. There are a handful 87 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:26,920 Speaker 4: of companies like you know, Core beav of Nebus, which 88 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 4: are smaller neo cloud players that specialize in renting and 89 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:34,279 Speaker 4: VideA GPUs to customers. Now, the bigger vendors have the 90 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 4: capital that they are also expanding it. But again, as 91 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 4: I said, given the size of the increment that they 92 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 4: are seeing, you know, you're not getting that same growth rate. 93 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 2: Do you think there's a little over exuberance though in 94 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 2: the market today with Oracle stock up nearly forty percent, 95 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:51,279 Speaker 2: especially with so much talk about whether or not we 96 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 2: are in an AI bubble and what happens if it 97 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:55,000 Speaker 2: starts to deflate. 98 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 5: Yeah. 99 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 4: See, one of the things you have to remember is 100 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:01,080 Speaker 4: for Oracle, at least they have this backlock of autos 101 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 4: coming in and it's coming you know. For example, one 102 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 4: of the biggest customers right now is OPENINGI If Opening 103 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 4: Eye continues to expand revenue at a good pace over 104 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 4: the next several years, they are going to be spending 105 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:14,719 Speaker 4: a lot of money to train their models in order 106 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:15,479 Speaker 4: to stay ahead. 107 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 5: So I think there is a lot of relationship over there. 108 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:20,279 Speaker 4: If let's say you and I don't use chat GPT 109 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 4: as much, that would have an impact on opening Ay's revenue. 110 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 4: That would have impact downstream revenue on all the other players, 111 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 4: you know, whether that's in video oticle. 112 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:32,159 Speaker 5: But frankly speaking, we are not there yet, you know. 113 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 3: I'm looking at the mag seven members and how they're 114 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 3: performing today. In video is up almost five percent, Amazon 115 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 3: down one point nine percent, Alphabet which is the parent 116 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 3: of Google up marginally up one point zero point one percent, 117 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 3: and Microsoft getting six tens of one percent. 118 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:48,719 Speaker 6: It doesn't feel like this is a situation. 119 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 3: Where it's a zero sum game Oracle wins and Microsoft, 120 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 3: Google and Amazon lose, or is it no? 121 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,279 Speaker 4: So there are a few companies that fall into this pocket, 122 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:03,559 Speaker 4: you know, and those include Amazon Web Services, Microsoft. 123 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 5: Google Cloud Code, viv Oracle. 124 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 4: And Mhibius for example. So these are the ones that 125 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:11,160 Speaker 4: are seeing extra spending right now. But when you look 126 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:13,680 Speaker 4: at on the application side, you know, whether that salesforce 127 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 4: or workday, those guys are not seeing that benefit because 128 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 4: they're not in that infrastructure game. So there's a huge 129 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 4: difference between the two vendors, or between the two category 130 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 4: of vendors, right now we are more in the built 131 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 4: phase of AI, not the implementation phase of AI. 132 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 2: You know, it's hard to believe, Scarlet, but this stock 133 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:36,240 Speaker 2: and is now worth more than has a larger market 134 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:40,679 Speaker 2: cap than Walmart, Eli, Lilly, JP, Morgan Chase. 135 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:43,159 Speaker 3: Yeah, that is pretty remarkable. And again it feels like 136 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 3: it kind of came from out of nowhere. 137 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 2: You're right on that very recently, which is why I 138 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 2: brought up you know, Amazon, Microsoft, right on your rog 139 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:51,160 Speaker 2: I mean, the fact that those were the names we 140 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:53,919 Speaker 2: were really talking about when it came to AI, and 141 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 2: then sort of Oracle comes out of out of the blue. 142 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:00,720 Speaker 4: Yeah, but that's the whole point. This particular infrastructure. If 143 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 4: you're going to run large models, it's very unlikely you 144 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 4: can do it in house. I mean, you can do it, 145 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 4: but you require a lot of investment going in. You're 146 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 4: better off renting out data center capacity or computing capacity 147 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 4: from one of the cloud vendors. And Oracle has the 148 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:17,280 Speaker 4: money to spend it, and they have the relationship with 149 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 4: Nvidia to get those GPUs, And on top of that, 150 00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 4: they're offering this to customers and saying here's my equipment, 151 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 4: come and test it out the way you like it. Amazon, 152 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 4: on the other hand, for example, sells it as a 153 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:32,200 Speaker 4: package and that's where you're not. You're seeing some distinction 154 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 4: and also the size. As I mentioned before. 155 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 6: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 156 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 157 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:48,239 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android 158 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:51,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 159 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:55,160 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 160 00:07:56,000 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 6: We're keeping an eye on Novo Nordisk, the drug maker. 161 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 3: Remember they are the company behind Ozembic and Mogovi has 162 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 3: decided to cut nine thousand jobs and also cut its 163 00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 3: profit forecasts as well. 164 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 6: So let's bring in Sam Fazzelli. 165 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 3: He is Bloomberg Intelligence, Director of Research for Global Industries 166 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:16,520 Speaker 3: and Senior Pharmaceuticals, our go to guy for all things 167 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 3: on global drug makers, and Sam for Novo Nordisk. This 168 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:24,120 Speaker 3: is part of a broader restructuring that the new CEO 169 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 3: is undertaking. Can you tell us a little bit more 170 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 3: about the changes taking place? 171 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:30,840 Speaker 5: Yeah? Sure, and very nice to see you again. All. 172 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 7: So, the story here is that this is not the 173 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 7: first time they've lowered guidance for the year. I mean 174 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 7: this time there's an impact on the EPs front from 175 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 7: obviously the cost of restructuring, assuming they can get it 176 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:44,840 Speaker 7: all done this year, but it's a pretty chunky one 177 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 7: nine thousand people, about eleven percent of the workforce, and 178 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,640 Speaker 7: a lot of that coming from Denmark. If you read 179 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:53,080 Speaker 7: the essence of the press release that they put at 180 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:54,320 Speaker 7: there's a couple of things that they bring out. 181 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 5: They want to invest more on R and D. 182 00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 7: Well, what I think this is telling you is that 183 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:01,600 Speaker 7: the growth that they have planned for the next five years, 184 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 7: they may be thinking maybe that won't come as test 185 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 7: as we were expecting it because of competition from Lily, 186 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:11,080 Speaker 7: compounders and other products potentially coming to market to the 187 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 7: pace that they were hoping. So if you want to 188 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:14,600 Speaker 7: keep investing in R and D, you need to liberate 189 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:17,560 Speaker 7: some cash. And also it looks like that they're also 190 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:20,240 Speaker 7: thinking about changing the way that they're doing their marketing 191 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 7: because of the different channels that they're getting involved with 192 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 7: direct to consumer. That is not something that FORUMA has 193 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 7: done very often before. In fact, only Lily had done 194 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:32,160 Speaker 7: it prior to this, also for obesity drugs. So maybe 195 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:34,320 Speaker 7: the costs of that are different, and there's an element 196 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:37,319 Speaker 7: that that they've referred to in there, which is a 197 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:44,439 Speaker 7: culture of performance related reward, and you think to yourself, well, 198 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 7: what was it before? So it seems like that they 199 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 7: want to make it much harder. Focus on you've got 200 00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:53,200 Speaker 7: to deliver because we need the growth. So that's the 201 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:55,079 Speaker 7: interesting wle to watch, you. 202 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 2: Know, Sam, I think to a lot of casual investors 203 00:09:57,440 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 2: who don't deep dive into you know, Novo Nordisk the 204 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 2: way you might say, would look at this and say, listen, 205 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:06,559 Speaker 2: they have the most popular weight loss drugs, right, will 206 00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:09,959 Speaker 2: go vi o Zembek. Why is this company having these 207 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:13,960 Speaker 2: problems when you drill down or is it just a 208 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 2: problem with having to scale too quickly? Is it that 209 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 2: the company isn't nimble enough to sort of change with 210 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:21,720 Speaker 2: the times. 211 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 7: Well, Novodordis has been a poster child of how you 212 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 7: grow from a small company selling to a relatively basic 213 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 7: set of products twenty thirty years ago to one that's 214 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 7: become essentially one of the innovators in the space. They 215 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 7: brought the first jil we want to market, so we 216 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 7: can't hold them for that. It's just that I think 217 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 7: this growth that they had to go through where the 218 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:46,040 Speaker 7: planning was done, you know a lot of I mean, 219 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:48,960 Speaker 7: we have one hundred billion dollar market potential for or 220 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 7: obesity as a whole, right, so it's just difficult, I think, 221 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:56,280 Speaker 7: to judge into this space. And maybe the previous CEO 222 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 7: had looked and said, I'm pretty sure we're going to 223 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 7: be fifty percent of that market. We need to plan 224 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:05,000 Speaker 7: for that growth. And then two things changed. Competition from 225 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 7: really is superintense. They have what I would call it 226 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:10,440 Speaker 7: a better drug in terms of the efficacy profile that's 227 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 7: been shown in head to A trials. And then of 228 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 7: course you've got on top of that, compounders that don't 229 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:19,440 Speaker 7: seem to be don't seem to be going away. They 230 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 7: keep taking cheaper generics or generics manufactured. They'll try and 231 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 7: making the drugs. So that's where I think the new 232 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:30,560 Speaker 7: Area issue is in that we all expected the FDA 233 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:32,959 Speaker 7: to really clamp hard down on that and they haven't 234 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:37,880 Speaker 7: made issues, you know, statements, but they're allowing them. They 235 00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 7: even found areas outside the US where these compound compounders 236 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:42,439 Speaker 7: can get their. 237 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:46,080 Speaker 5: Drugs from, which is counterintuitive. So those are the issues. 238 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:50,319 Speaker 3: Yeah, So it feels like NOVA Nordics gave up its 239 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 3: first mover advantage, but has it lost its lead completely 240 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 3: in the US obsity market to Elila Lee permanently or 241 00:11:56,960 --> 00:11:59,840 Speaker 3: is this still very much a wide open contest. 242 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 7: No, I mean we have I can't remember what the 243 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:05,520 Speaker 7: latest number is in terms of what percentage of people 244 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:08,320 Speaker 7: who would benefit for these from these drugs who should 245 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:10,800 Speaker 7: be able to get them around it. But it's not 246 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 7: in the big percentages. I'm pretty sure it's in the 247 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 7: single digit percentages. So there's a lot of room to 248 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 7: play for. I think our estimate, and I hope I'm 249 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 7: not completely off on this, was about one hundred and 250 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 7: eighty nine million people could be in these drugs by 251 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 7: twenty thirty. That's enormous. There's lots of other people coming 252 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 7: with orals with other things. It's not a matter of 253 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:34,199 Speaker 7: having lost the lead. Yes, really surprised. Within slightly different mechanism, 254 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:37,400 Speaker 7: it's still the same but with a better drug. There's 255 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:40,440 Speaker 7: still room for innovation here, which is what the company's saying. 256 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 7: We need to save to keep investing in that innovation. 257 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 7: So that's the area I think that they're highly focused on. 258 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 3: That Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up 259 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:50,560 Speaker 3: after this. 260 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:58,080 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 261 00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:01,559 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern Apple Coarclay and Android Auto 262 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 263 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:07,760 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 264 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:11,640 Speaker 2: It's a tough day for investors and Synopsis or the 265 00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 2: chip design software provider missed Wall Street's estimates, hurt by 266 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 2: weakness and its design IP business. I want to bring 267 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:22,200 Speaker 2: in naraje Ptel, now Bloomberg Intelligence senior software analyst, for 268 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 2: more on this. So give us the larger story behind 269 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:31,520 Speaker 2: this disappointment. I think is an easy word to use 270 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:33,199 Speaker 2: for this. I mean, I don't know. I feel like contostors. 271 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:35,960 Speaker 2: Yeah right, all right, Narage, what's your take? 272 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 8: Yeah, this is a major shock to the investor community, 273 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:42,240 Speaker 8: and I think you see it in the stock price. 274 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:47,200 Speaker 8: Specifically the company's design IP business that's about thirty percent 275 00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:51,800 Speaker 8: of sales. It has been growing fifteen percent annually and 276 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 8: their leader in a subcategory called interface IP. This business 277 00:13:57,160 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 8: now is going flat. It was tracking to fifteen percent 278 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:04,319 Speaker 8: growth as of two Q and the remaining two quarters 279 00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:08,160 Speaker 8: are big shock. This quarter was down nine percent. Next 280 00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:11,360 Speaker 8: quarter it's going to be down some more. And this 281 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 8: catalyst came out of the blue, I would say for 282 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 8: a lot of the investor community because design IP has 283 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:23,200 Speaker 8: a lot of tailwinds related to AI complex chip design 284 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 8: as well as all this advanced architecture that the semiconductor 285 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 8: design companies like in video, Broadcom, Intel are pursuing. 286 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:35,080 Speaker 3: So can we blame or can the company blame factors 287 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,240 Speaker 3: beyond its control and here and referring of course to 288 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 3: trade war tariffs for that or is this something that 289 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 3: Synopsis just wasn't prepared for. 290 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 8: Yeah, there's a lot of interesting points there, Scarlett, and 291 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 8: I think when we're looking at trade war, yes, a 292 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 8: little bit of an issue. And the China Eda band 293 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 8: that initiated end of May that lasted about six weeks, 294 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 8: that was introduced by the Bureau of Industry and Security 295 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:07,200 Speaker 8: in the US. But their major peer cadence and competitor, 296 00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 8: which is second in market share, they reported several weeks 297 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 8: ago they had the same macro issues and they actually 298 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:17,600 Speaker 8: tuned up their guidance. So this may be a little 299 00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 8: more company specific than macro factors. And I think what's 300 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 8: hinting us that they made big investments to catch up 301 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 8: Intel foundry relative to some of the other competing founderies 302 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 8: with their IP and this hasn't returned any type of 303 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 8: scale on the revenue side for them, and this reality 304 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 8: really hit them this quarter and for the next several quarters. 305 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 2: So did the CEO Gazi say anything on that post 306 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 2: earnings call to give investors a little light at the 307 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 2: end of the tunnel here an indication of how they're 308 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:54,040 Speaker 2: going to turn things around at Synopsis. 309 00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:58,320 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think it was a little marky in terms 310 00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 8: of the numbers to make a deal with Ansis that 311 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 8: was about thirty five million dollars in mid July. This 312 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:09,280 Speaker 8: should have added about six hundred million in total revenue, 313 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 8: So the numbers didn't add up to their guidance of 314 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 8: seven billion. So a little light in terms of adding 315 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:19,200 Speaker 8: this acquisition that closed. So that's going to be a 316 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 8: little bit of a digestion period, we think, and it's 317 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 8: going to take several quarters for the investor community to 318 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 8: settle in. And I think, you know, we're facing this 319 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 8: issue where they have a lot of AI related tailwinds. 320 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 8: You're building more complicated chips, you're using a lot more 321 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 8: interface IP for these chips, and they're the market leader 322 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 8: in this market, so things aren't adding up. I guess 323 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:43,960 Speaker 8: when we look at, you know, the story and the 324 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 8: narrative that they've communicated over the last several quarters, the 325 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 8: AI story that we're hearing from Nvidia and Broadcom, and 326 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 8: some of the investments that are occurring across the ecosystem. 327 00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 3: So very quickly here is there any bright Is there 328 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 3: any good news in this reported anything to hang your 329 00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 3: hat on if you are a long term investor and 330 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 3: you don't want to give up yet. 331 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:09,400 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think this space is an oligopoly Cadence and Synopsis. 332 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:13,600 Speaker 8: There's no new entrants, competitive pricesure pressure is very low, 333 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 8: there's no substitute for technology. You have to use their 334 00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 8: tools to design chips, and the more advanced the chips get, 335 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:23,879 Speaker 8: the more features you introduce. You introduce a lot of 336 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 8: verification and sign off steps to make sure all the 337 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:30,760 Speaker 8: electrical characteristics are working. You're not generating too much heat. 338 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:34,720 Speaker 8: You have mechanical structures, so you have to use their IP. 339 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:38,760 Speaker 8: You have to use their EDA Electronic Design Automation tools. 340 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 8: They're thirty five percent share. Cadence is at thirty two 341 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:46,360 Speaker 8: percent share, and you have Siemen said about sixteen percent. 342 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:49,320 Speaker 8: So you don't have a lot of alternatives here, and 343 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:52,880 Speaker 8: once you build on any of these platforms, it's very 344 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 8: hard to switch because your engineers are used to the 345 00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,159 Speaker 8: type of data and the type of tool sets and 346 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:01,200 Speaker 8: the type of bugs that they produce and go through 347 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:01,880 Speaker 8: their workflow. 348 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:05,200 Speaker 6: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 349 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:12,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 350 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am. 351 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:14,439 Speaker 6: He's done on. 352 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 1: Apple, Coarclay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 353 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:21,119 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 354 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:22,320 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 355 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:24,919 Speaker 2: I am taking a look at Chewy right now, the 356 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:28,720 Speaker 2: online pets supply retailer, taking it on the chin today. 357 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 2: Profit falling in its fiscal second quarter, and that's despite 358 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 2: an uptick in sales. The company did add more customers 359 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 2: last quarter. Let's break this down though, with Diana rosserro 360 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 2: Penya Bloomberg Intelligence as consumer staples analyst. So, Diana tell me, 361 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:49,200 Speaker 2: I mean this looks like a mixed quarterly report from Chewy. 362 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 2: What has gotten investors so hot and bothered here? 363 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 9: Yes, I think what investors were trying to see in 364 00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:01,080 Speaker 9: this report was that there was an inflection point in 365 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 9: the industry, and I don't necessarily think that they have 366 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:06,120 Speaker 9: founded in this report. 367 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:09,200 Speaker 2: Sales was higher than. 368 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 9: The company the investors expected, but margin guidance ebidult guidance 369 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,959 Speaker 9: was kept and that was, you know, a little bit 370 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:22,639 Speaker 9: of any you know, bad news for the company and 371 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:23,640 Speaker 9: the industry as at a whole. 372 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:27,680 Speaker 2: Talk to me about innovating in this industry, because I 373 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:30,520 Speaker 2: would think that if you just stop innovating, that's when 374 00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:33,679 Speaker 2: you start to have the problems. Is that starting to 375 00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 2: happen with Chewi. I mean, it is a leader in 376 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 2: this space, but does it need to still be one 377 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 2: step ahead of the curve and innovate here? 378 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:43,959 Speaker 9: Well, yes, and I think that is one of the 379 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:47,640 Speaker 9: things that they were trying to communicate during their earnings call. 380 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:51,560 Speaker 9: They are actually investing and that is going to probably 381 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 9: offset some margin momentum going forward at least the second 382 00:19:56,040 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 9: half of the year. They have led of offices now in 383 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 9: four states. 384 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:05,640 Speaker 2: I've seen that, Yes, exactly. 385 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 9: They actually launched Chewy Plus, which is a membership program 386 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:14,879 Speaker 9: and apparently has been very successful. And also they have 387 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 9: launched private brands with get Real, which is a fresh 388 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,680 Speaker 9: frozen dog food brand. 389 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 2: So the company also added a pretty decent amount of 390 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:29,720 Speaker 2: active customers, right one hundred and fifty thousand on a 391 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:33,160 Speaker 2: sequential basis. So now it's total customer base is nearly 392 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:37,119 Speaker 2: twenty one million. How much more room is there do 393 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:40,360 Speaker 2: you think to grow because we know people will spend 394 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 2: big on their pets. 395 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 9: Yes, and what we're seeing is probably gonna see a 396 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:50,639 Speaker 9: greater contribution on the pricing side compared to the customer base. 397 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:56,080 Speaker 9: And that again, that's another reason. While they did show 398 00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 9: positive momentum on customer base, it was still you know, 399 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 9: in the mid single sit digits, which is not necessarily 400 00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:07,399 Speaker 9: significant growth or growth that they had seen before. So 401 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:12,399 Speaker 9: you know, we still see an equal contribution for the 402 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 9: customer base, but it's not necessarily as impressive as he 403 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:17,080 Speaker 9: was years before. 404 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 2: I'm curious if they talked at all on the post 405 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 2: earnings call about tariffs and how that might be impacting. 406 00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:25,840 Speaker 2: I would imagine a number of their products are coming 407 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,439 Speaker 2: from overseas, China in particular, when you're talking about some 408 00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:30,280 Speaker 2: of these pet toys as well. 409 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 9: Yes, and they did not quantify the hit that it 410 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,439 Speaker 9: was going to be on because of Good Soul, but 411 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,400 Speaker 9: they have mentioned that private label. Their private brands are 412 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 9: significantly affected by tariffs, and that is one of the 413 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:49,439 Speaker 9: reasons they probably help margin guidance for the year because 414 00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 9: they they said that they're going to invest in pricing 415 00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:53,200 Speaker 9: and be more competitive. 416 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 2: Who does Chewi see as their biggest competitor, I would. 417 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 9: Say Amazon, and also and mortar retailers like pat Smart 418 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:03,359 Speaker 9: and Petco And. 419 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,520 Speaker 2: So what about the horizon? I mean, I don't know 420 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,560 Speaker 2: how far they went out, but what are projected projections? 421 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:10,879 Speaker 2: What kind of guidance are they offering investors? 422 00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:17,360 Speaker 9: So they only have noted the annual guidance. They don't 423 00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 9: necessarily want to speculate on other things. But you know, 424 00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:25,719 Speaker 9: they they still think that there's a lot of momentum 425 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 9: in the industry, and I think investors are not necessarily 426 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 9: that they do not agree on the long term potential, 427 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,360 Speaker 9: but they're more worried about what the six months are 428 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:37,320 Speaker 9: going to bring. The next six months. 429 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:41,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, and in terms of profit, what what was the 430 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,359 Speaker 2: pressure on profit? They said it was tied to share 431 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 2: based compensation. There were also some related tax issues. Can 432 00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:49,240 Speaker 2: you just tell us a little bit more about that? 433 00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:53,720 Speaker 9: Yes, that was another thing, and you know what they 434 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 9: mentioned there was, I mean, margins grew and you know 435 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,880 Speaker 9: it was it was gross margin was up ninety basis 436 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:05,919 Speaker 9: points year every year. But they mentioned that that was 437 00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:11,280 Speaker 9: going to be the high point of the manage expectation exactly. 438 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,240 Speaker 9: And that is why what the you know, the investor 439 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 9: community was was phoning in. 440 00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 441 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:25,480 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 442 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:29,280 Speaker 1: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, 443 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:32,920 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 444 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 445 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,920 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal