1
00:00:01,320 --> 00:00:02,000
Speaker 1: The volume.

2
00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:15,800
Speaker 2: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up

3
00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:21,840
Speaker 2: Straight Firefam, It's me Jason McIntyre, Straight Fire for Friday,

4
00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:26,200
Speaker 2: January fifth. Oh. Tough, tough night in college hoops. The

5
00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:28,960
Speaker 2: five and oh streak comes to an end South Alabama.

6
00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:32,120
Speaker 2: I know you guys care deeply South Alabama in a

7
00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:34,960
Speaker 2: just a neck and neck game with somebody I've already

8
00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:37,720
Speaker 2: forgotten who, and they dunk. They get a dunk with

9
00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:39,640
Speaker 2: one second left to force overtime, and I'm like, oh,

10
00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:42,000
Speaker 2: that's usually the worst if they had not, if they

11
00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,440
Speaker 2: missed the dunk, cover plus three, and of course they

12
00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:48,080
Speaker 2: get blasted in overtime. Just a brutal beat to wrap

13
00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:50,640
Speaker 2: up what was a good, strong start to the college

14
00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:55,200
Speaker 2: hoops gambling season. Listen, the picks are going to be

15
00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:57,760
Speaker 2: on ig stories. It's tough to get them out before

16
00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:00,560
Speaker 2: the podcast is put out. I sorry, I don't have

17
00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,520
Speaker 2: picks at six am. It's just it's none of my

18
00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:06,160
Speaker 2: repertoire this early. Now we'll come NCAA tournament. It's a

19
00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:09,840
Speaker 2: different story at any rate, great great Friday podcast here

20
00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:13,680
Speaker 2: for you. I'm gonna dive into Wemby versusanis in a second. Obviously,

21
00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:17,400
Speaker 2: our guest is an NFL guy, big time gambling guy.

22
00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:19,520
Speaker 2: He's a Vegas dude. He's been there for I think

23
00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:24,240
Speaker 2: he said thirty years. His nickname used to be Vegas Runner,

24
00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:30,840
Speaker 2: but now he goes by Vr or Gianni the Greek.

25
00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:34,920
Speaker 2: He's really good and some firm disagreement on some games,

26
00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:39,920
Speaker 2: but major agreement on Michigan Washington. To wrap up the podcast,

27
00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:42,399
Speaker 2: but before we get to him, let me quickly he

28
00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:46,480
Speaker 2: just have some words on this Titanic battle between the

29
00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:50,080
Speaker 2: Bucks and the Spurs, I mean Yannis and Wembin Yama.

30
00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:52,720
Speaker 2: It was as advertised, like, thank you for putting that

31
00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:55,400
Speaker 2: on the schedule, and thank you for putting great announcers.

32
00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:57,800
Speaker 2: Kevin Harlan was amazing on it. I'll get the the

33
00:01:57,800 --> 00:01:59,960
Speaker 2: Bucks win, okay. The Bucks beat the five and two

34
00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,240
Speaker 2: twenty nine Spurs by four on the road. Yannis was

35
00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:06,120
Speaker 2: tremendous forty four points, fourteen boards, seven assists. I mean

36
00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:09,960
Speaker 2: he barely missed a shot. He was incredible, Dame. You know,

37
00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:13,000
Speaker 2: twenty five to ten. Whatever Bucks won, as they should. Now,

38
00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:15,520
Speaker 2: they didn't cover the spread or come close. What this

39
00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:21,640
Speaker 2: really was was Wembin Yama and Yannis going at it

40
00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:25,200
Speaker 2: in what I thought was arguably the best one v

41
00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:27,560
Speaker 2: one matchup we've seen in the NBA this season. One

42
00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:30,200
Speaker 2: of those like, oh my gosh, like that is a

43
00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:33,200
Speaker 2: game you pay to attend and you're like, I got

44
00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:36,000
Speaker 2: to see arguably the best player in the league in

45
00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:38,679
Speaker 2: Yannis go head to head with wem min Yama. Who

46
00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:40,680
Speaker 2: is He's gotten next? Now they did not meet in

47
00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:43,560
Speaker 2: the first meeting. Wem min Yama didn't play. Wem min

48
00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:49,200
Speaker 2: Yama was spectacular in this game. Twenty six minutes, twenty

49
00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:53,680
Speaker 2: seven points, nine boards, five blocks, did have five turnovers,

50
00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,720
Speaker 2: five fouls, whatever, But he you know they like to

51
00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:59,200
Speaker 2: say so and so won the battle but lost the war,

52
00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:02,240
Speaker 2: or what won the war but lost the battle. This

53
00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:05,160
Speaker 2: was certainly listen, Janis won the game. That's fine, Hoaic, congrats,

54
00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:10,360
Speaker 2: awesome big picture. You could tell from this ween ben

55
00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:13,400
Speaker 2: Yama's coming and he's not far off and once he

56
00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:16,480
Speaker 2: takes over, look the hell out. This dude had some

57
00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:21,320
Speaker 2: unbelievable highlights. I mean, gets the steal and on the

58
00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:23,480
Speaker 2: fast break Dayden comes kind of in for the steal

59
00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:26,400
Speaker 2: near like right around the paint area. Wem Ben Yama

60
00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:30,000
Speaker 2: in all one motion, goes behind the back, collect behind

61
00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,720
Speaker 2: the back dunk and won and it was like, oh

62
00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:36,120
Speaker 2: my gosh, this is a rookie. It was just spectacular.

63
00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:40,080
Speaker 2: And then of course late in the game, Yannis going

64
00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:42,520
Speaker 2: in for a dunk, tried to flush it on Wemban

65
00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:45,080
Speaker 2: Yama in like the final forty five seconds and wehm

66
00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:47,400
Speaker 2: Ben Yama just just rejected him at the rim, like

67
00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:50,000
Speaker 2: nobody rejects Yannis dunks. Maybe bam Ata Baiyo once in

68
00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:53,800
Speaker 2: a while, Yannis flushes on everybody, and Weben Yama just

69
00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,040
Speaker 2: stood tall. Now if that were you know, back in

70
00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:57,920
Speaker 2: the day. But Tumbo gets that block, he's wagging the

71
00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:00,160
Speaker 2: finger well when Yama did no such thing. But it

72
00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:01,520
Speaker 2: was just one of the And I know people like,

73
00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:05,160
Speaker 2: come on this first stink, who cares? Come on, Jason listen.

74
00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:07,240
Speaker 2: I'm just telling you go watch the highlights if you

75
00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:11,480
Speaker 2: missed it. Wee Ben Yama is special. This team needs

76
00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:13,960
Speaker 2: talent around him. Devin Vassal, by the way, looked really good.

77
00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:17,280
Speaker 2: He's the guy last year due to my Gray Fox's team.

78
00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:19,120
Speaker 2: He's a Michigan guy. So he was out at the

79
00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:22,960
Speaker 2: Rose Bowl. I've talked about him before. He listened to

80
00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:26,240
Speaker 2: the podcast every day walking this dog. Sanjay is his name, sorry,

81
00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:30,120
Speaker 2: son Jeev, and he I call him son Clay because

82
00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:32,160
Speaker 2: he's such a great three point shooter. He was telling

83
00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:34,800
Speaker 2: me he had a run last year betting Devin Vassal

84
00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:36,680
Speaker 2: over three pointers made. I don't know if you guys

85
00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:39,719
Speaker 2: remember this, and I piggybacked. It was fun and Vassal

86
00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:41,640
Speaker 2: six of nine from deep thirty four points. The kid

87
00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:43,560
Speaker 2: can stroke it. Problem is they don't have a whole

88
00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:45,760
Speaker 2: hell of a lot else on the team right now.

89
00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:48,919
Speaker 2: Keldon Johnson's really fallen out. It's almost like he's reading

90
00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:52,120
Speaker 2: about the trade juice out there and he's just struggling

91
00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:56,040
Speaker 2: big time. Show hand's okay, Like they just they need dudes.

92
00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:58,200
Speaker 2: I thought they should have spent last summer. I guess

93
00:04:58,200 --> 00:04:59,800
Speaker 2: they're gonna spend this summer. I don't want to hear

94
00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,640
Speaker 2: Ascal Siakam. Guy, Sorry, that's not gonna excite me if

95
00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:06,600
Speaker 2: you're talking about overpaying for og like, I don't know whatever. Anyways,

96
00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:12,520
Speaker 2: now I'm getting in the weeds on NBA in early January. Anyways,

97
00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:14,839
Speaker 2: I just thought i'd quickly talked about that game before

98
00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:19,080
Speaker 2: we get to the NFL Saturday night two games, Sunday's

99
00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:25,479
Speaker 2: one pm Slate mostly not great, and the afternoon slate's okay.

100
00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,240
Speaker 2: The real game is Buffalo Miami. We dig into all

101
00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:33,279
Speaker 2: that with Gianni the Greek here he is on straight fire.

102
00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,479
Speaker 2: The NFL season is going strong, and DraftKings Sportsbook is

103
00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:39,960
Speaker 2: hooking new customers up with an offer that's even stronger.

104
00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:42,559
Speaker 2: Bet five bucks on any game this week to score

105
00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:46,240
Speaker 2: two hundred dollars instantly in bonus bets, and DraftKings isn't

106
00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:49,520
Speaker 2: stopping there. All customers can take advantage of a sweetener

107
00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:53,039
Speaker 2: offer every game day this October. Get in on the

108
00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:56,320
Speaker 2: game day greatness. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook AAP now in

109
00:05:56,440 --> 00:06:00,720
Speaker 2: use code straight fire. New customers can score two instantly

110
00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:03,240
Speaker 2: in bonus bets when you bet five on the NFL.

111
00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:07,120
Speaker 2: That's code straight fire only on DraftKings Sportsbook and official

112
00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:10,680
Speaker 2: sports betting partner of the NFL. The Crown is Yours

113
00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:14,760
Speaker 2: gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or visit www

114
00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:17,280
Speaker 2: dot one eight hundred gambler dot net. In New York,

115
00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:20,000
Speaker 2: call eight seven seven eight hope n Y or text

116
00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:22,640
Speaker 2: Hope n Y for six seven three sixty nine. In

117
00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:26,360
Speaker 2: Connecticut help is available for problem gambling called eight eight

118
00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:30,080
Speaker 2: eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit

119
00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:34,360
Speaker 2: CCPG dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of boot

120
00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:39,200
Speaker 2: Hill Casino and Resort licensee partner Golden Nugget Lake Charles

121
00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:43,640
Speaker 2: twenty one and up. Age varies by jurisdiction void in Ontario.

122
00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:49,120
Speaker 2: Bonus bets expire one hundred sixty eight hours after issuance.

123
00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:52,440
Speaker 2: See Sportsbook dot DraftKings dot com, slash Football terms for

124
00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:57,760
Speaker 2: eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms and Responsible gaming resources.

125
00:06:58,760 --> 00:07:02,039
Speaker 1: Help. Let you know, Jason likes to think he knows

126
00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:04,080
Speaker 1: everything when it comes to sports.

127
00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:07,600
Speaker 2: I know what sports fans want, but for everything he doesn't.

128
00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:09,320
Speaker 2: He knows a guy who does.

129
00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:12,480
Speaker 1: Let's just say I know a guy who knows a

130
00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:14,520
Speaker 1: guy who knows another guy.

131
00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:17,400
Speaker 2: All right, let's welcome into straight fire to break down

132
00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:20,680
Speaker 2: Week eighteen, which I just I'm loathing this week. Obviously.

133
00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:22,760
Speaker 2: Week seventeen was a disaster for me. I do not

134
00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:24,840
Speaker 2: want to revisit it. When I have one of those weeks,

135
00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:28,080
Speaker 2: I kind of sit back. I took me a while

136
00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:30,600
Speaker 2: to get into the water. This week. I was wasting

137
00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:33,400
Speaker 2: time on college basketball, although it was profitable. But to

138
00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,160
Speaker 2: help me break down Week eighteen, let's bring on Gianny

139
00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:39,400
Speaker 2: from Wager Talk. I've known you for a while. You

140
00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:41,440
Speaker 2: used to go buy another name, which we now can't

141
00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:43,240
Speaker 2: call you. How you doing, my man?

142
00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:46,040
Speaker 3: Never better? Of course you can call me man.

143
00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:50,360
Speaker 1: Nicknames are earned through the years and coming from Philly.

144
00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:55,000
Speaker 1: I've been called ace Vegas, Runner, Yanni, the Greek Mama

145
00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:58,840
Speaker 1: even when I was a kid. I've had so many nicknames, Jason,

146
00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:00,320
Speaker 1: So no problem, oh.

147
00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:03,480
Speaker 2: Man, I like it? Okay, all right? So Week eighteen,

148
00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:06,200
Speaker 2: I don't know do you want to start? Like everybody

149
00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:08,200
Speaker 2: seems to know at this point, like the market's smarter.

150
00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:10,480
Speaker 2: We all know that you don't want to bet on

151
00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:12,880
Speaker 2: teams that need to win because it's priced in and

152
00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:15,360
Speaker 2: you're paying a tax if you will on those teams.

153
00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:17,280
Speaker 2: The market's smart enough to know that, right.

154
00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:19,160
Speaker 3: For sure.

155
00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:22,400
Speaker 1: But that doesn't necessarily mean they're gonna lose or they're

156
00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:25,200
Speaker 1: gonna win. It just means, more time than not, you're

157
00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:27,920
Speaker 1: gonna pay a premium, which makes it difficult to find,

158
00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:31,480
Speaker 1: like a plus EV spot. That's that's how you have

159
00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:34,760
Speaker 1: to go into this week knowing that that there's But

160
00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:37,079
Speaker 1: with that said, There's also going to be a ton

161
00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:41,120
Speaker 1: of volatility with lines moving up and down, which makes

162
00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:45,920
Speaker 1: the very dangerous for sports books as well. So this

163
00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:48,680
Speaker 1: is a week that could be advantageous for the better

164
00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:51,600
Speaker 1: just as much as for the sports book, because it's

165
00:08:51,679 --> 00:08:54,720
Speaker 1: just as difficult for them to quantify with all of

166
00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:57,240
Speaker 1: these things are worth as it is for us.

167
00:08:57,280 --> 00:08:59,280
Speaker 3: The better is the difference is they get eleven.

168
00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:02,400
Speaker 1: That's ten eleven to ten, so they could be wrong

169
00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:03,439
Speaker 1: fifty percent of time.

170
00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:05,080
Speaker 3: It's still profit not us.

171
00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:08,760
Speaker 2: So two games Saturday, they actually are both interesting to be.

172
00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:11,000
Speaker 2: One of the few games I have that is Baltimore

173
00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:14,400
Speaker 2: getting four against Pittsburgh. It's at some places down to

174
00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:16,840
Speaker 2: three and a half. This is one of those classic

175
00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:19,400
Speaker 2: spots like, oh oh, the Steelers are good now, Mason

176
00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:21,800
Speaker 2: Rudolph's good, even though we know for four years he

177
00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:25,560
Speaker 2: hasn't been good, and Mike Tomlin is now favored on

178
00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:28,360
Speaker 2: the road. But the Ravens aren't playing anybody who cares.

179
00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:30,480
Speaker 2: I mean, John Harbal tries in the preseason. You don't

180
00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:33,360
Speaker 2: think he's gonna try in a week eighteen spot. So

181
00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:35,320
Speaker 2: I took the points with the Ravens. This is something

182
00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:36,280
Speaker 2: that you've entertained.

183
00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:40,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I haven't touched this game, to tell you the truth,

184
00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:43,400
Speaker 1: I haven't taken a position on it side or total,

185
00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:47,880
Speaker 1: but I expect the exact same thing. You do that again,

186
00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:51,120
Speaker 1: Baltimore will show up. This is a divisional game, this

187
00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:54,000
Speaker 1: is on a television it's not the nighttime game, but

188
00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:57,200
Speaker 1: it's still a primetime game. They have a chance to

189
00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:01,600
Speaker 1: ruin Pittsburgh's shot, So I think you're gonna get effort

190
00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:04,200
Speaker 1: from Baltimore. And you know going in you're paying a

191
00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:08,000
Speaker 1: premium for Pittsburgh based on the fact Baltimore clinched, has

192
00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:11,080
Speaker 1: more or less nothing to play for and Huntley is

193
00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:14,920
Speaker 1: what the starter. So I mean quantifying what the drop

194
00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:18,839
Speaker 1: off is will be huge, But I do think it's

195
00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:22,480
Speaker 1: an overreaction. For me, it is Baltimore or passed. But

196
00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:24,560
Speaker 1: it's just one of those games. I'm not really interested

197
00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:25,560
Speaker 1: of getting involved in.

198
00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:30,920
Speaker 2: Houston indies the night game on Saturday, and like on paper,

199
00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:34,200
Speaker 2: this is not as great sexy game. The line I'm

200
00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:37,079
Speaker 2: seeing is looks like Houston's takets some money. They are

201
00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:40,240
Speaker 2: now at minus one. It was Colts favored. I haven't

202
00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:42,960
Speaker 2: heard one person say I think the Colts can win this.

203
00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:45,120
Speaker 2: It feels like everybody's just betting CJ. Stroud here on

204
00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:47,199
Speaker 2: the road. For me, it's Cults or nothing.

205
00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:50,880
Speaker 1: Well, Aileen Houston, I am going with the market there,

206
00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:53,880
Speaker 1: and you're right it has been one sided. Early action

207
00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:56,880
Speaker 1: has been sharp, but rest the shortage. I agree with you.

208
00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:59,600
Speaker 1: I think the public money will come in on Houston

209
00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:02,000
Speaker 1: all so. I think the mistake was.

210
00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:04,240
Speaker 3: Making Indianapolis the favorite. I get it.

211
00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,199
Speaker 1: These two teams look almost identical on paper, meaning the

212
00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:11,240
Speaker 1: records are almost are exactly the same against the spread

213
00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:15,080
Speaker 1: is almost exactly the same. But when you look at

214
00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:16,680
Speaker 1: the Colts, the one thing that sticks out to me

215
00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:19,160
Speaker 1: is they really have no home field advantage this year.

216
00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:21,160
Speaker 1: I mean, they're four and four at home, they're four

217
00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:23,280
Speaker 1: and three away. That to me tells me you play

218
00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:26,240
Speaker 1: just as good away from home as you do on

219
00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:29,160
Speaker 1: the road, unless your point the parential is so different,

220
00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:32,800
Speaker 1: and it isn't with this team. So I think they

221
00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:35,720
Speaker 1: factored in home field advantage and the fact that the

222
00:11:35,760 --> 00:11:38,559
Speaker 1: Colts have owned this series a little bit too heavily,

223
00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:41,440
Speaker 1: and I think that's why you saw the Houston money

224
00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:44,160
Speaker 1: come in early. I agree with that. If this line

225
00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:47,760
Speaker 1: continues to climb. I don't disagree with your Colts play.

226
00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:50,920
Speaker 1: I think a better bet will be teasing the Colts up,

227
00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:54,200
Speaker 1: getting them through that key number of three and seven.

228
00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:56,640
Speaker 1: Now that there's some one and a half's out there,

229
00:11:56,840 --> 00:11:58,520
Speaker 1: I think that may be a good bet.

230
00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:00,000
Speaker 3: I don't like that the totals high.

231
00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:02,240
Speaker 1: I kind of like the T's when the totals are

232
00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:06,560
Speaker 1: lower because each point is worth more. But with that said,

233
00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:11,280
Speaker 1: divisional game, meaningful game. Getting seven and a half on

234
00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:13,599
Speaker 1: a pick on, I don't think the bad bet. I

235
00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:16,000
Speaker 1: think that's how I would approach the Colt side, or

236
00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:17,280
Speaker 1: I would look to Houston.

237
00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:18,400
Speaker 3: Probably it's a little late.

238
00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:21,120
Speaker 1: Taking him at plus money on the money line was

239
00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:22,679
Speaker 1: probably the best even play.

240
00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:26,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's I mean again, it's like I'll watch it

241
00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:28,280
Speaker 2: for sure Saturday night, but I don't. It's just a

242
00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:30,880
Speaker 2: it's a weird matchup. The Sunday one pm slate is

243
00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:34,600
Speaker 2: total garbage. The only one I did circle is Tampa

244
00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:38,400
Speaker 2: Bay at Carolina. So I was on Carolina when they

245
00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:42,040
Speaker 2: covered in Tampa. Now they're at home getting more points,

246
00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:45,360
Speaker 2: they're getting four and a half. I don't know, can

247
00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:47,040
Speaker 2: I bet Carolina here? A lot of people were on

248
00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:48,840
Speaker 2: Carolina last week, I was like, no, thank you, I

249
00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:54,560
Speaker 2: refuse This Carolina team's aggressively bad. Where is anything for

250
00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:55,200
Speaker 2: you on this game?

251
00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:56,440
Speaker 3: I like Carolina.

252
00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:58,400
Speaker 1: In fact, I think, not only am I going to

253
00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:00,320
Speaker 1: be taking the points, but I'm gonna sprinkle a little

254
00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:02,880
Speaker 1: something on the money line because I really like the

255
00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:05,040
Speaker 1: fact when I look at young he's coming off such

256
00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:07,160
Speaker 1: a terrible game, and you're usually going to regress and

257
00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,000
Speaker 1: progress towards the me and you're never as bad as

258
00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:10,600
Speaker 1: you look any one weak or as good as you

259
00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:12,920
Speaker 1: look any one week. And if you zoom out a

260
00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:15,360
Speaker 1: little bit, he was playing really well. He had ninety

261
00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:18,439
Speaker 1: three point six quarterback raiding one hundred and ten quarterback rating,

262
00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:22,199
Speaker 1: and then he has a terrible game against Jacksonville where

263
00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:24,120
Speaker 1: to get shut out twenty six nothing, and he has

264
00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:26,680
Speaker 1: a fifty three point one quarterback rating with.

265
00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,920
Speaker 3: One hundred and twelve yards passing. I think you should

266
00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:31,280
Speaker 3: see a bounce back there.

267
00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:33,360
Speaker 1: I also like the fact that you know this team

268
00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:35,920
Speaker 1: has a strong home field advantage. They haven't won a

269
00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:38,280
Speaker 1: single road game, they're zero to nine, but they won

270
00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,640
Speaker 1: two of seven games at home. So if I'm ever

271
00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:43,000
Speaker 1: going to play Carolina, this is the only place I'm

272
00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:45,120
Speaker 1: going to look to back them. And on the flip

273
00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:48,320
Speaker 1: side with Tampa Bay, you put that pressure on a

274
00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:52,959
Speaker 1: team those must wins, the room for error is so slim.

275
00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:55,560
Speaker 1: I think you need an experienced team, and I just

276
00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:57,760
Speaker 1: don't see it from Tampa. I'm someone that has a

277
00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:00,360
Speaker 1: future on Tampa like one hundred to one, So I'd

278
00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:02,680
Speaker 1: like to see them get into the playoffs because with

279
00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:04,800
Speaker 1: that much equity, I'll be able to turn a profit.

280
00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:08,120
Speaker 1: But I do think Caroline is going to play spoiler

281
00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:11,319
Speaker 1: here at the very least get the cover and ruin

282
00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:14,120
Speaker 1: a lot of those parlays early on in the day games.

283
00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:15,760
Speaker 2: So Tampa.

284
00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:20,320
Speaker 1: Get to the super Bowl or yeah, yeah, I had

285
00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:23,800
Speaker 1: before the season, I was trying to narrow down between

286
00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:27,240
Speaker 1: the Bills and the Cowboys, and I went with the Bills.

287
00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:27,680
Speaker 3: And uh.

288
00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:29,600
Speaker 1: Then I do my long shots and I went with

289
00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:34,760
Speaker 1: the Saints, Tampa and uh, I think Minnesota.

290
00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,840
Speaker 3: All were eighty to one or higher before to see him.

291
00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:41,560
Speaker 2: Huh wow. Interesting. Let me ask you. The one line

292
00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,040
Speaker 2: that I don't understand it all this week is the

293
00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:47,120
Speaker 2: Jets are only getting too in New England. Now, I

294
00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:50,880
Speaker 2: know the Patriots are bad and Bill Belichick just could

295
00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:54,040
Speaker 2: be his final game. The Patriots have won seventy nine

296
00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:56,520
Speaker 2: straight against the Jets or whatever the number is. I

297
00:14:56,560 --> 00:14:59,720
Speaker 2: don't see how anybody is betting the Jets in this spot,

298
00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:02,160
Speaker 2: and why hasn't this move? Like? What is that telling you?

299
00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:05,320
Speaker 3: You're gonna call me nuts?

300
00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:07,560
Speaker 1: And your listener's gonna say, how'd you get this guy

301
00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:08,000
Speaker 1: on here?

302
00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:08,760
Speaker 3: Why is he here?

303
00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:11,360
Speaker 1: Especially if New England wins this game by thirty? But

304
00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:14,640
Speaker 1: I absolutely love the Jets in this spot. Number one,

305
00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:16,600
Speaker 1: you have to if you're a sport's better that bets

306
00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:20,120
Speaker 1: for long term profit, you gotta tease the Jets just blindly.

307
00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:22,560
Speaker 1: I don't care if they lose by fifty points. It's

308
00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:24,960
Speaker 1: a plus eb spot. Anytime you have a total of

309
00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:27,440
Speaker 1: thirty and you could tease a team that's in a

310
00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:30,120
Speaker 1: coin flip game up through three and seven, you gotta

311
00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:32,360
Speaker 1: do it blindly. As long as you're laying minus one

312
00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,240
Speaker 1: twenty or less on a six point teaser, it's automatic.

313
00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:37,840
Speaker 1: So if you're better out there, have the Jets up

314
00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:39,800
Speaker 1: the plus six and a half up to seven and

315
00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:42,640
Speaker 1: a half, excuse me, or eight on your teaser just

316
00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,280
Speaker 1: late take the six, lay up the minus one twenty

317
00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:46,960
Speaker 1: noting higher than that, you'll do just fine.

318
00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,440
Speaker 3: But I like the Jets. Here's why, because you nailed it.

319
00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:54,120
Speaker 1: Sure, New England's own this series, but that's the New

320
00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:56,320
Speaker 1: England of the last two decades.

321
00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:58,600
Speaker 3: This is a much different New England team.

322
00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:01,600
Speaker 1: If the Jets are ever going to get that monkey

323
00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:04,600
Speaker 1: off their back, this is their very best chance. And

324
00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:07,400
Speaker 1: one of the highest correlations to winning in the NFL

325
00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:11,600
Speaker 1: is offensive passing success rate defensive passing success rate. You

326
00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:15,160
Speaker 1: have success early downs, you're gonna do well. And on

327
00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:17,760
Speaker 1: both sides of the football, the Jets are just so

328
00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:21,160
Speaker 1: far ahead of New England. New England one of the

329
00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:26,480
Speaker 1: worst offensively in offensive passing success rate, Jets way ahead

330
00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:28,640
Speaker 1: of them, And you think the Jets are bad, and

331
00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:30,280
Speaker 1: then you look at the defensive side of the.

332
00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:32,000
Speaker 3: Ball, Jets much better.

333
00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:36,080
Speaker 1: I just don't see anywhere where New England is better,

334
00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:38,720
Speaker 1: not even their records, which again I don't put much

335
00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:41,320
Speaker 1: stock in records because there's so much randomness to a

336
00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:45,600
Speaker 1: sixty minute game. But the only reason your New England's

337
00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:47,720
Speaker 1: favorite is because of the name, the name on the

338
00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:50,479
Speaker 1: jersey and the history of the franchise.

339
00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:52,680
Speaker 3: But not this team. On the field.

340
00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:56,080
Speaker 1: If you cover both teams' names and you just look

341
00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:58,440
Speaker 1: at the data, you are not going to come up

342
00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:00,840
Speaker 1: with the New England as a face in this game.

343
00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:03,640
Speaker 3: They're three and five on the road. They've won one.

344
00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:06,120
Speaker 1: Out of seven games at home, so they've won three

345
00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:09,720
Speaker 1: x the amount of games away from Foxborough as they've

346
00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:12,639
Speaker 1: won at Foxborough. And you want to lay points with

347
00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:15,040
Speaker 1: this team, not even one point.

348
00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:17,000
Speaker 3: What I want to lay. So if I'm not getting

349
00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:18,919
Speaker 3: points with a team that's one and six at.

350
00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:21,119
Speaker 1: Home, I'm sure as hell not gonna be laying points

351
00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:23,199
Speaker 1: with them. Give me the Jets till I run out

352
00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:26,440
Speaker 1: of money. I love this clock for them, and I'm

353
00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:29,960
Speaker 1: gonna throw them in teasers as well. They finally get

354
00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:33,080
Speaker 1: past New England on Sunday.

355
00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:35,920
Speaker 2: Interesting. So maybe I'm too close to this as a

356
00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,119
Speaker 2: Jets fan, but I just know when the Jets go

357
00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:41,119
Speaker 2: up against Belichick with a crummy quarterback like Trevor Simeon,

358
00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:43,439
Speaker 2: it's lights out. I mean, they even when they have

359
00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:46,000
Speaker 2: quarterbacks we think are good, they can't do anything. I

360
00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:48,480
Speaker 2: mean the Jets have found ways even last year to

361
00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:50,320
Speaker 2: lose to the Patriots on that punt return at the

362
00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:52,879
Speaker 2: end of the game for whatever reason, Like there's just

363
00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:55,720
Speaker 2: like a mental block against this pager.

364
00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:59,119
Speaker 3: You don't tell how Simmy continues to improve. Look at

365
00:17:59,119 --> 00:17:59,880
Speaker 3: that quarterback rate.

366
00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:02,960
Speaker 1: The first game he plays a thirty two point five,

367
00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:06,320
Speaker 1: the second game sixty four point eight, the third game

368
00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:07,639
Speaker 1: eighty three point seven.

369
00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:08,880
Speaker 3: You know what comes next.

370
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:13,000
Speaker 1: He's gonna have one hundred plus rating on Sunday against

371
00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:13,680
Speaker 1: New England.

372
00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:16,960
Speaker 3: Just look at that progression. You know what's coming from Simeon.

373
00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:20,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny. The Browns game was interesting that Thursday night,

374
00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,840
Speaker 2: so they moved the ball. I think that was that.

375
00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:25,760
Speaker 2: The Jets last game Thursday night football.

376
00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:27,119
Speaker 3: Yah, seventy one percent completion.

377
00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:29,879
Speaker 2: So it's funny, Like they look good on the opening

378
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:32,960
Speaker 2: drive and you know, you're like, okay, the Jets are

379
00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:35,480
Speaker 2: gonna be competitive here, all right, interesting, and then they

380
00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:37,720
Speaker 2: proceed to just get their doors blown off. He makes

381
00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:40,960
Speaker 2: bad decisions. I mean, listen, I also want the Jets

382
00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:42,680
Speaker 2: to lose to help their draft picks, So that's part

383
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:44,720
Speaker 2: of it. So if I bet the Patriots, which I did,

384
00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:46,600
Speaker 2: and I'm gonna have him in the contest, it's like

385
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:48,919
Speaker 2: a triple win. Bet them get him in the contest.

386
00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:51,199
Speaker 2: And I wanted the Jets to lose to try to

387
00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:53,240
Speaker 2: get a top five pick, which is kind of nerdy.

388
00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:56,640
Speaker 2: But anyways, let's move on to a game that actually matters,

389
00:18:57,080 --> 00:18:59,320
Speaker 2: and this one, to me is just super fascinating. This

390
00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:03,399
Speaker 2: Eagles Giants game. I have posited, and I said this

391
00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:05,800
Speaker 2: on the Hurt today that I think this could be

392
00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:08,600
Speaker 2: the best bet of the weekend in the Giants. I

393
00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:10,720
Speaker 2: know everybody's gonna say, oh, the Eagles are gonna bounce back,

394
00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:12,919
Speaker 2: and I just look at this game. It's aren't the

395
00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 2: same time as the Washington Dallas game. And maybe Washington's

396
00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:21,119
Speaker 2: plucky and fights hard, but Dallas can sew up the

397
00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,959
Speaker 2: division if they happened like they did on Christmas Day

398
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:25,480
Speaker 2: where they just boat race this team. If they go

399
00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:29,320
Speaker 2: up twenty one to six, okay in the first half.

400
00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:31,919
Speaker 2: Does Philly looking at the scoreboard, knowing they're playing on

401
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,800
Speaker 2: that turf field where guys have gotten hurt all season,

402
00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:38,240
Speaker 2: do they say, you know what, We're not winning the division.

403
00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:42,240
Speaker 2: Let's let's rest hurts. Let's sit uh DeVante Smith who

404
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,800
Speaker 2: got banged up, important offensive lineman. Let's just rest our

405
00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,439
Speaker 2: guys and get to next week where we can make

406
00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:51,479
Speaker 2: a run, let's not risk anything, and Tyrod Taylor comes

407
00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:53,639
Speaker 2: to the back door and maybe wins it. That's the

408
00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:54,600
Speaker 2: case for the Giants.

409
00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,400
Speaker 1: A great point, and I think that's why you are

410
00:19:57,520 --> 00:20:02,399
Speaker 1: seeing a lot of sharp money on the groups that I.

411
00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:03,199
Speaker 3: Provide accounts for.

412
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:06,200
Speaker 1: They've already taken the New York Giants, so you are

413
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:08,960
Speaker 1: on the sharp side. Even though I did see some

414
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:12,480
Speaker 1: resistance with guys taking the Eagles at minus five, so

415
00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:15,240
Speaker 1: it's not like they're on an island with the Giants.

416
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 1: My concern is that I'm seeing an extreme with the Eagles.

417
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:19,480
Speaker 3: And here's what I mean.

418
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:23,320
Speaker 1: Whenever I see extremes, because I approach sports betting as

419
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:27,119
Speaker 1: a trader, I trade stocks, equities, and you know, commodies.

420
00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:30,560
Speaker 1: In the mornings and afternoon, I bet sports, and when

421
00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 1: I look, I look the trade extremes. And when I

422
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:34,440
Speaker 1: look at the Eagles, when I look at a team

423
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:38,680
Speaker 1: that hasn't covered a game since the twentieth of November,

424
00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:42,760
Speaker 1: that's an extreme. And what usually happens is the market

425
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,920
Speaker 1: corrects itself. You see, because the NFL is one of

426
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,640
Speaker 1: the most efficient markets we have, and all markets are

427
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:50,919
Speaker 1: like rubber bands. You could pull them, so far in

428
00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:54,199
Speaker 1: one direction, but eventually it's gonna snap back. That's what

429
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:57,439
Speaker 1: always happens. Nothing goes up in a straight line. And

430
00:20:57,480 --> 00:20:59,080
Speaker 1: I think when you look at the Eagles, who have

431
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 1: been constantly not covering the spreads, you may be getting

432
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:05,840
Speaker 1: them at a discount. And when you look at that

433
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:08,679
Speaker 1: betting line of what they were, you know, just a

434
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,960
Speaker 1: few weeks ago against the Giants, they were two touchdown

435
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:15,120
Speaker 1: favorites in that game. So the fact that you're now

436
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:19,880
Speaker 1: getting them at nine points less in a game in

437
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:23,000
Speaker 1: New York, which you know what home field advantage really

438
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:27,920
Speaker 1: is there, I think they may be a little discounted

439
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,679
Speaker 1: for me. That's why I haven't piggybacked that steam on

440
00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 1: the Giants. I'm not betting the Eagles, don't get me wrong,

441
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:35,960
Speaker 1: But that's that's the only thing that sticks out. We're

442
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 1: on the flip side. I see the opposite extreme. We're

443
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:40,800
Speaker 1: sure the Giants are three and three over their last six,

444
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:42,879
Speaker 1: but against the spread, which is the only thing that

445
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:46,720
Speaker 1: matters to me there, they've covered five of their last six.

446
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 1: So it's almost like you have opposite ends of the spectrums,

447
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 1: opposite extreams. One team that's been covering five out of

448
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 1: six one team that hasn't covered six three. I don't

449
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 1: want to get in the middle of that. I haven't

450
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 1: followed those three, so I'm not gonna bet them to stop,

451
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:04,080
Speaker 1: but I'm not going to piggyback them either.

452
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,399
Speaker 3: For me, this has stay away written all over it.

453
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:12,200
Speaker 2: Would you wait to see if maybe maybe this gets

454
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,280
Speaker 2: down to like a four or a three? I can't

455
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,440
Speaker 2: imagine that. Then you take the eagles the other way?

456
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, only because you kind of get in trouble trying

457
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,600
Speaker 1: the guests. I always say this, I'm never first to

458
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 1: get the information, so I trust the market. Like if

459
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 1: I'm gonna look at the line and the line moving

460
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:31,399
Speaker 1: in one direction, it's more or less gonna confirm what's

461
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:34,639
Speaker 1: in my mind, either the news of an injury or weather.

462
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 1: I wait for confirmation more than trying to get ahead

463
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 1: of the market. Back in the day, I wanted to

464
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 1: be act smarter than I was, and I would try

465
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:43,720
Speaker 1: to get out ahead of news.

466
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,399
Speaker 3: But I found out since I have to lay eleven.

467
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:49,159
Speaker 1: To ten, that isn't a great idea because I have

468
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 1: to be right a lot more than I'm wrong, and

469
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 1: that's just not gonna happen. Like your edge just isn't

470
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:57,920
Speaker 1: that great. So I stopped doing that and I started

471
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:02,680
Speaker 1: waiting to confirm news and then take advantage of the overreaction,

472
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 1: meaning betters when they find out a star players.

473
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 3: Out, they'll bet against that team.

474
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:12,440
Speaker 1: I'll wait for the overreaction confirmation that he's not playing,

475
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:16,520
Speaker 1: and then actually look to back that team, expecting the

476
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 1: market to be giving me more points than I should

477
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 1: be getting, which doesn't guarantee me a win on that bet.

478
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 1: But that's not my goal. My goal is to win

479
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 1: over one thousand bets. If I was only going to

480
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:29,119
Speaker 1: bet Saturday night, then the only thing that matters is

481
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,200
Speaker 1: that game. But if you're going to be betting next

482
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,359
Speaker 1: week and next month, the next year, then on the

483
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 1: only job is to find good bets.

484
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:40,440
Speaker 3: And in that spot, I think that would put a spot.

485
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:42,640
Speaker 1: I mean, it would be a position where the market

486
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 1: would be giving me a good bet, and I just

487
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:45,679
Speaker 1: don't see that.

488
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 3: Here.

489
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 2: Football is back. No more preseason games. The regular season

490
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 2: is here. While we all love watching our favorite teams

491
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 2: on television, there is nothing better than being in a

492
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:58,720
Speaker 2: game live and in person, and the best way to

493
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 2: get tickets to any these games is on game time

494
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 2: the fastest growing ticketing app in the US for last minute,

495
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:09,160
Speaker 2: amazing deals on tickets to see your favorite football teams

496
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 2: this September. Download game Time and it's not just football.

497
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:16,119
Speaker 2: Game Time has tickets to baseball games, concerts, and comedy

498
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 2: shows across the country. Download the game Time app and

499
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 2: redeem code Jmack for twenty dollars off your first purchase.

500
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 2: Terms apply again. Download the game Time app and enter

501
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:31,640
Speaker 2: code Jamack. That's Jmac for twenty dollars off. No matter

502
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,359
Speaker 2: where you live, get out and have some fun this week.

503
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 2: Download game Time today, last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed.

504
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 2: Buffalo Miami Sunday Night Football. It looks like as we

505
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 2: record this, it's headed toward a three and a half

506
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:49,920
Speaker 2: for Buffalo. Oh no, wait, no, no, I'm sorry. It

507
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 2: looks like it's going two and a half for Miami. Huh.

508
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 2: I did not anticipate that. I thought we'd be seeing

509
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 2: a lot of Buffalo money anything on this game.

510
00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 3: Yeah.

511
00:24:57,560 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 1: I actually have a future, as I said along the

512
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,840
Speaker 1: Buffalo bill. So for bias reasons, I do with life

513
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:05,359
Speaker 1: to see Buffalo in this game.

514
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 3: But I have money on Miami.

515
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:10,920
Speaker 1: I should have took a full position because I, like you,

516
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 1: expected the opposite. I thought you would get enough Buffalo

517
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 1: money that I would probably get plus three even money

518
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:19,160
Speaker 1: or three.

519
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 3: And a half. But that's not happening.

520
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 1: So I'm probably gonna have to now sit the other

521
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 1: half of my bed out or wait till Sunday night,

522
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 1: because remember what happens earlier in the day. Betters are

523
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:32,359
Speaker 1: chasing or looking the double up, so they may affect

524
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 1: this line before it's all said and done.

525
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:36,400
Speaker 3: But the bottom line is, I.

526
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 1: Really like Miami in this spot, and I have to

527
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 1: put my long term I mean, my biases and wants

528
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 1: of a Buffalo in this game and you know, getting

529
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 1: in the playoff secure in the playoff spot to decide,

530
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:50,919
Speaker 1: because they.

531
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:52,679
Speaker 3: Shouldn't be a three point favorite, number one.

532
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,199
Speaker 1: We already know that, and here's why, because we know

533
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 1: the look aheadline was a pick them. That was just

534
00:25:57,560 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 1: a couple of days ago. I could have got this

535
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:00,879
Speaker 1: game and a pick them. But now that they're in

536
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 1: that must win situation, you're going to be forced to

537
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,120
Speaker 1: pay a premium, as you touched on at the top

538
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:08,679
Speaker 1: of this, and that's what you're doing here. And we

539
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:12,120
Speaker 1: have another extreme look at Miami, where do they win

540
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 1: the most. They win at home. They're seven and one

541
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,160
Speaker 1: at home, only four and three on the road. That's

542
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 1: a strong home field advantage. That's exactly what I want

543
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:21,360
Speaker 1: to look for. Buffalo the exact opposite.

544
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 3: They're seven and.

545
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,639
Speaker 1: One at home, but they don't win football games on

546
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:26,920
Speaker 1: the road where there'll be low five hundred. So I'm

547
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 1: not going to look to lay points with a team

548
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:31,920
Speaker 1: that's below five hundred on the road. So it looks

549
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 1: like the perfect storm to me for me to want

550
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 1: to back Miami. And now I'm getting them as a

551
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:40,399
Speaker 1: dog because Buffalo's in this must win even though the

552
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 1: metrics just don't support that they're the better team offensively.

553
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 1: Miami's better defensively, Buffalo may be slightly better, but I

554
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 1: just when you're throwing, you know, the home field advantage,

555
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 1: the pressure of having the win, having won four straight game,

556
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 1: five of the last six, and not being able to

557
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 1: make a mistake, being able to ruin your season, just

558
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 1: so much to like about Miami. Plus they're getting points.

559
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,359
Speaker 1: For me, it's Miami or pass and assigning me's gonna

560
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 1: hope I lose that bet, but I am. I do

561
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 1: have money already on it, and that'll be my side, Miami.

562
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 2: Yeah. Let me just go to a hypothetical before we

563
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 2: get to the college football playoff game. So let's say

564
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:23,160
Speaker 2: that green Bay gets to the playoffs as the seven

565
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:27,680
Speaker 2: seven seed and they play the Cowboys in Round one,

566
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 2: Dallas to green Bay seven. Give me your hypothetical. Guess

567
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,200
Speaker 2: at a line. I haven't seen one online because there's

568
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 2: so many permutations if what could happen. But if green

569
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 2: Bay goes into Dallas, what do you think that line is?

570
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 2: I would I would guess.

571
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:45,919
Speaker 3: Like seven and seven, maybe eight eight, seven.

572
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 1: Seven minus one twenty twenty five, it'll get the eight.

573
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was thinking like four and a half.

574
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 3: Five. That may be what they use.

575
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 1: I'm not the book, so I'm putting what I think

576
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 1: a true line would be.

577
00:27:58,359 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 3: I'm saying on a.

578
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:02,400
Speaker 1: Neutral feel, Dallas is about five and a half points

579
00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:05,360
Speaker 1: better than green Bay, and I got to give them

580
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 1: about two points for home field advantage. So yeah, maybe

581
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,639
Speaker 1: about seven juice seven and a half my true line.

582
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:14,399
Speaker 1: So I hope they come out with four so I

583
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,920
Speaker 1: could bet Dallas. Because again, my job isn't to balance

584
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 1: the action or you know, try to urge the public

585
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 1: to take the worst of it. I'm just saying what

586
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:26,359
Speaker 1: I think the number should be based on what I

587
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:29,439
Speaker 1: have as power ratings. I just think Dallas is that

588
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:32,680
Speaker 1: much better. And I do think that the bias now

589
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 1: with green Bay. Oh, No, one wants to face some

590
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:37,880
Speaker 1: I don't think you're going to be getting that team

591
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 1: at a discount, even against the Cowboys.

592
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 2: So what are the narrative? Like I would ask you

593
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 2: straight up, are the Cowboys good anymore? And it's because

594
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 2: like early in the season and hell Thanksgiving, they destroy Washington,

595
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 2: but since then they have had to play like decent teams.

596
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 2: Seattle scores thirty five. It was one possession game. They

597
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 2: did smash the Eagles, which is good. But as we

598
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 2: see now, the Eagles are leaking oil. They're not. They

599
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 2: get destroyed by Buffalo, they lose to Miami a close one,

600
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 2: and they barely beat Detroit and gave they probably should

601
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 2: have lost. I just it's pretty clear when they face

602
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 2: good teams they're not as dominant. And I just I

603
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 2: don't know is Green Bay good though?

604
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 1: Do you?

605
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 2: I mean, who's got the crazy case?

606
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 3: That's you nailed it right there. See Dallas, You're absolutely right.

607
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 1: I have them at about six in the NFL, you know,

608
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 1: in other words, on a neutral field, I could name

609
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:30,240
Speaker 1: rat all five teams that would be favored over Dallas easily.

610
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 3: Okay, maybe I could. I could even push them the

611
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:33,400
Speaker 3: seventh or eighth.

612
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 1: The problem is I have green Bay barely in the

613
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 1: in the top fifteen, actually out of the top fifteen.

614
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 1: That's that's the difference. It's the green Bay rating that

615
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 1: I have lower. It's not the Dallas that's the problem.

616
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 1: It's I think my green Bay rating. And you're right,

617
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 1: Dallas has definitely dropped off. I just haven't upgraded green

618
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 1: Bay as much as others, I think.

619
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 2: And one other NFL sorry even let's say the Dolphins.

620
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 2: Sorry yeah, let's say the Dolphins lose to Buffalo. Buffalo

621
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 2: gets a two, Miami falls down to I think it

622
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 2: would be six behind Cleveland, I think. And now Miami

623
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:16,080
Speaker 2: goes to k C first weekend of the playoffs, Tyreek

624
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 2: Hill revenge spot. If I let me, since you've been

625
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 2: in this longer than I have, let me guess here,

626
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 2: I would say Kansas City minus because didn't they play

627
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 2: in Germany and it was super close?

628
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 3: I don't remember.

629
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Case played Miami in Germany. It was

630
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 2: like a twenty four to fourteen game, but it was

631
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 2: a one possession Miami had a chance and then to

632
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 2: a fumbled a snap or something. So I would guess

633
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:43,719
Speaker 2: Kansas City minus three is that light?

634
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would make them exactly about on a neutral field,

635
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 1: I got them about a one and a half. Actually,

636
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 1: I have Miami about a one point favorite, almost not even,

637
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 1: but you add in Casey and Casey's got that stronger

638
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 1: home field advantage, So yeah, I would make them about

639
00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 1: a two point favorite, probably get bet up to a

640
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 1: field goal because of their they have that playoff history obviously,

641
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 1: and the experience compared to Miami.

642
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, that game in Germany. So Casey led seven to nothing.

643
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 3: What was the one team the number?

644
00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 2: Hold up, let's scroll down Casey minus one and a half. Ooh,

645
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 2: you're probably closer than I am. So the game turned

646
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 2: on that fumble return in the final minute of the half.

647
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 2: Twenty one nothing at half time. Miami dominates the second half,

648
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 2: and they had a chance to tie the game in

649
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 2: the final seconds and then you know, you lost a snap.

650
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 2: But both teams are kind of different. I don't think

651
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 2: Kansas City. This is when they were seven to two.

652
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 2: I don't think Kansas City is good right now?

653
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, well they had.

654
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 1: They've lost more games than they've won since that time,

655
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 1: so you're right they have declined, that's for sure. The

656
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 1: only thing is it's the playoffs, and with teams like that,

657
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 1: it's it's you again. It's hard to just say you

658
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 1: could turn on the switch, but we've seen it in

659
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:57,640
Speaker 1: sports so many times where teams would experience just turn

660
00:31:57,760 --> 00:31:59,719
Speaker 1: that switch on when it matters.

661
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:01,600
Speaker 3: Where Thorn towards the end of the regular.

662
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 1: Season, we give up on them, but then all of

663
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:06,719
Speaker 1: a sudden they pull it together in the playoffs and

664
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 1: they have the ability to go on a run. Now,

665
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:11,719
Speaker 1: for case, it's going to be are they healthy and

666
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 1: does it line up well matchup wise for them? But

667
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 1: they definitely have the pieces and the experience to go

668
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 1: on a playoff run for sure.

669
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 2: We could wrap up with this, do you have anything?

670
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 2: On Monday's Natty Michigan minus four and a half against Washington,

671
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 2: it seems like the narrative is, oh, why should it

672
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 2: could play with this team? Why cant why should it

673
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 2: beat them? After Washington Washington Tech, after watching Washington Texas. Meanwhile,

674
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 2: the line goes from four to four and a half.

675
00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 1: I absolutely love Michigan in this spot, and I'm so

676
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 1: confident that I don't even have to care about watching it.

677
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 1: I could go to sleep whether they win or lose

678
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 1: this game. I'll go to bed knowing I placed the

679
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 1: great bet. And again, that's the job, find good bets.

680
00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 1: We already know what the look aheads for. These were

681
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:03,680
Speaker 1: the hypothetical matchups. Michigan was a touchdown favorite against Washington.

682
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 3: We know that.

683
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 1: The oddsmakers let us know that. But what's happened since then?

684
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 1: A lot of recency bias plus coupled with the Michigan

685
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 1: had played their biggest game against Alabama.

686
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 3: That was their biggest game. They're not going to have

687
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 3: anything left.

688
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 1: They're gonna come out flat against this Washington team. There's

689
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 1: so much better than Washington, that's the bottom line. They're

690
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 1: better on the offensive side of the football. They're better

691
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 1: on the defensive side of the football. All they have

692
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 1: to do is run the football. If they run the football,

693
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 1: they will not lose this game. They are going off

694
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 1: against a defense in Washington that against the run is

695
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 1: one hundred and one in college football in success rate

696
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 1: against Michigan's offensive line and running backs. They should have

697
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 1: no problem running the football successfully, which will then set

698
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:57,520
Speaker 1: up their stud qb In McCarthy with all that experience,

699
00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:01,520
Speaker 1: I get it. Everyone's waiting for Michigan to fail and

700
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 1: you know, do what they've done in the past.

701
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 3: This is not that team.

702
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 1: They're better everywhere, and you're getting them at a discount

703
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 1: because of the narrative and real quickly, if you're going

704
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,400
Speaker 1: to bet Michigan, you want to take them on the

705
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:18,040
Speaker 1: money line because what's going to happen is a lot

706
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:21,359
Speaker 1: of Washington betters are good. These are betters that haven't

707
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,640
Speaker 1: bet college football year, people that like the school went

708
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 1: to the school, fans of the team, orte Michigan, what

709
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 1: have you. They only bet national championships or super Bowls.

710
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 1: When they get to the window. They're not laying eleven

711
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 1: to ten with their twenty bucks, Jason. They're putting their

712
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 1: twenty dollars on Washington money line. So instead of when

713
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,280
Speaker 1: you look at Michigan at minus four and a half,

714
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:44,400
Speaker 1: minus four and a half should equate to a money

715
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 1: line of about minus one ninety five mon ninety three

716
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 1: to be exact, I could already find minus one eighty

717
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 1: five so I can already place a plus CV bet

718
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:57,279
Speaker 1: based on what the average number is right now. It's

719
00:34:57,320 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 1: only going to drop even more if this line it

720
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:02,880
Speaker 1: gets the four or three and a half, the money

721
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:05,840
Speaker 1: line will not reflect what it should be at minus

722
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 1: three and a half or four.

723
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:09,360
Speaker 3: It will be a lot cheaper.

724
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 1: Because of the excess money on Washington money line. So

725
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:16,319
Speaker 1: if you like Michigan, I get it. I rather lay

726
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 1: eleven to ten also than laying one fifties seventies eighties

727
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 1: to win one hundred. But the key is if it's

728
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:25,319
Speaker 1: the better bet, place the better bet, and I think

729
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 1: Michigan money line on Monday night will be the better bet.

730
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 1: But they win this by double digits, so don't go ahead.

731
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 1: And you shouldn't be teasing college football anyway. No, but

732
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:36,839
Speaker 1: for those that are teasing Washington, I don't think it's

733
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 1: going to help you Michigan by double digits.

734
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:43,240
Speaker 2: So I minus four and a half, Michigan is minus

735
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:45,240
Speaker 2: one ten and the money line I see is minus

736
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 2: one ninety two.

737
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 1: Okay, there's no good. They're very accurate there. You're going

738
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 1: to get a penny discount.

739
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:54,360
Speaker 2: It's not bad. So that's like a bet one thousand

740
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 2: to win five hundred, right, yeah, it's not a terrible bet.

741
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:02,759
Speaker 2: I think Michigan covers here. I mean yeah, I think

742
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 2: it's a bit of an overreaction. We forgot they were

743
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 2: ten point underdogs to Oregon.

744
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:08,839
Speaker 3: Exactly ten.

745
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,879
Speaker 2: It's just a little bit strange, all right, Giohny. Great

746
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 2: stuff as always. Where can they find you on Twitter?

747
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:18,480
Speaker 1: Checking it out at three underscore Gambler And if you disagree,

748
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 1: make sure you let me know before the game.

749
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 3: Don't tell me I suck after the game. You gotta

750
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:23,360
Speaker 3: tell me before the game.

751
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:26,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, all right, great stuff and happy new you

752
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 2: to you and yours man.

753
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 3: Thank you brother, you too. God bless