WEBVTT - BI Weekend: Live Nation Suit, Micron Earnings, Kimmel Return 0:00:00.280 --> 0:00:11.760 Bloomberg Audio, Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Intelligence 0:00:11.840 --> 0:00:13.920 with Scarletfoo and Paul Sweeney. 0:00:14.000 --> 0:00:16.080 How do you think the FED is looking at tariffs? 0:00:16.239 --> 0:00:17.440 The uncertainty of terriffs. 0:00:17.560 --> 0:00:20.000 Let's take a look at the sectors and how they performed. 0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:22.520 A lot of investors getting whipsaled every day by news. 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:26.520 Events, breaking market headlines, and corporate news from across the globe. 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:29.080 Could we see a market disruption of market event? 0:00:29.240 --> 0:00:31.280 So people just too exuberant out there? 0:00:31.400 --> 0:00:33.920 You see some so called low quality stocks driving this 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:34.800 short term rally. 0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:40.320 Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarletfoo and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio, YouTube, 0:00:40.360 --> 0:00:41.720 and Bloomberg Originals. 0:00:42.840 --> 0:00:45.159 On today's Bloomberg Intelligence Show, we dig inside the big 0:00:45.200 --> 0:00:48.320 business stories impacting Wall Street and the global markets. Each 0:00:48.320 --> 0:00:50.560 and every week, we provide in depth research and data 0:00:50.560 --> 0:00:52.600 on some of the two thousand companies and one hundred 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:55.800 and thirty industries our animalts cover worldwide. Today, we'll look 0:00:55.800 --> 0:00:58.520 at why the Trump administration is warning about tiele on 0:00:58.560 --> 0:01:01.360 all use during pregnancy. Plus we'll look at what's in 0:01:01.480 --> 0:01:05.280 store for the telecommunications company T Mobile after naming a 0:01:05.319 --> 0:01:08.839 new CEO. But first we begin in the anti trust Space. 0:01:09.080 --> 0:01:11.800 We recently heard that the US Federal Trade Commission and 0:01:11.840 --> 0:01:15.119 seven states have sued Live Nation Entertainment and its ticket 0:01:15.160 --> 0:01:17.959 Master subsidiary. It's for failing to prevent the use of 0:01:18.000 --> 0:01:21.680 automated ticketing bots and large scale resale operations. From more 0:01:21.880 --> 0:01:24.280 co hosts, Scarlettfield and I were joined by Jennifer Ree, 0:01:24.319 --> 0:01:28.400 Bloomberg Intelligence Senior litigation analyst. We first asked for Jens 0:01:28.480 --> 0:01:30.200 first impressions on the latest news. 0:01:30.600 --> 0:01:32.440 Well, I think, first of all, not too much of 0:01:32.440 --> 0:01:35.440 a surprise, because they did recently sue a much smaller 0:01:35.560 --> 0:01:38.800 entity over the same law, which is called the Better 0:01:38.800 --> 0:01:42.240 Ticketing Online Sales Act or the Bots Act, and Live 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:44.760 Nation was mentioned an awful lot in that lawsuit, so 0:01:44.840 --> 0:01:47.040 it sort of led to the conclusion that there might 0:01:47.040 --> 0:01:50.240 be another suit brought. And President Trump did order the 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:53.240 Federal Trade Commission to better enforce this act back in 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:56.240 an executive order in March, and they have a report 0:01:56.320 --> 0:01:59.520 due to the President on September twenty seventh, so saying 0:01:59.560 --> 0:02:01.440 what if they done to better enforce the act. So 0:02:01.520 --> 0:02:03.440 I think it's not a surprise that a big lawsuit 0:02:03.480 --> 0:02:05.360 came down before that report is due. 0:02:05.760 --> 0:02:07.880 You know, you talk you talk to a lot of 0:02:07.920 --> 0:02:09.480 nation people, and I've known them for a long time. 0:02:09.919 --> 0:02:12.799 I think they want to clean this stuff up. They 0:02:12.800 --> 0:02:15.120 want to take out the middleman, the scalper. They want 0:02:15.120 --> 0:02:17.359 to simplify the fees because they know the feedback is 0:02:17.400 --> 0:02:21.000 terrible from their customers. But this is still a thing, 0:02:21.080 --> 0:02:21.400 isn't it. 0:02:21.480 --> 0:02:23.960 I mean yeah, no, right, Well, first of all, antitrust 0:02:23.960 --> 0:02:26.440 cases tend to be backward looking, so what they may 0:02:26.480 --> 0:02:28.919 be taking efforts today, but we're looking at what they've 0:02:28.960 --> 0:02:32.720 been doing since twenty eighteen. Essentially. The other thing is 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:35.240 they do say that, and they have said that to 0:02:35.280 --> 0:02:37.640 the Department of Justice and to Congress as well. But 0:02:37.680 --> 0:02:39.720 if you look at what's been alleged in this lawsuit, 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:42.280 they're an awful lot of statements and documents cited to 0:02:42.800 --> 0:02:45.880 when their internal business communications going on. That suggests that 0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:48.720 they've kind of turned a blind eye to the broker 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:52.079 activity because they profit from the resale market of those 0:02:52.120 --> 0:02:54.960 tickets as well. How did they do that well, because 0:02:54.960 --> 0:02:57.440 they sell the primary ticket and take fees, and then 0:02:57.560 --> 0:02:59.440 the brokers buy in bulk and then they put it 0:02:59.480 --> 0:03:03.880 they resell on Ticketmaster's resale arm. Ticketmaster charges just to 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:05.880 list it and then they take another fee when the 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:08.360 ticket's actually sold, So they're basically double dipping on the 0:03:08.360 --> 0:03:09.400 same ticket. 0:03:09.720 --> 0:03:10.640 How is this different? 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:13.320 I know that's not good. How is this different from 0:03:13.360 --> 0:03:17.320 what ticket resellers, vivid Seats or access or any of 0:03:17.360 --> 0:03:20.480 those other companies that consumers have the option of using, 0:03:20.800 --> 0:03:22.960 how they operate and how they collect fees. 0:03:23.400 --> 0:03:26.800 So this is about whether they knowingly resell these tickets. Now, 0:03:26.840 --> 0:03:29.600 a reseller could sell a ticket that's been bought improperly 0:03:29.639 --> 0:03:31.760 by a bot but not know it. They could implement 0:03:31.800 --> 0:03:35.560 security measures, not understand the extent to which the bots 0:03:35.560 --> 0:03:38.080 in the scalpers have been able to technically go around 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:41.760 those security measures, and then, you know, in an honestly 0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:45.160 attempt to provide a place to resell tickets, resell the tickets. 0:03:45.320 --> 0:03:47.400 In this case, what the FTC is saying is that 0:03:47.440 --> 0:03:50.960 Ticketmaster knowingly did this, and they didn't step in the way, 0:03:51.000 --> 0:03:53.680 They didn't implement any of the rules that they have 0:03:53.840 --> 0:03:54.600 internally to. 0:03:54.640 --> 0:03:55.160 Let it happen. 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:57.080 They let it happen. So it remains to be seen 0:03:57.120 --> 0:03:59.520 whether some of the other resellers have that same kind 0:03:59.520 --> 0:04:02.280 of evidence internally. It may be that they're doing what 0:04:02.320 --> 0:04:04.640 they can to prevent the conduct and in that case 0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:06.040 it may not violate the Bots Act. 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:09.680 How about the Department of Justice, what are they doing 0:04:09.720 --> 0:04:11.600 with this company? I mean, is there talk of breaking 0:04:11.680 --> 0:04:13.600 up Live Nation from the Ticketmaster? 0:04:13.920 --> 0:04:16.360 The Department of Justice has been going after this company 0:04:16.360 --> 0:04:21.720 for years, ever since Live Nation acquired Ticketmaster, which yes, Paul, 0:04:21.760 --> 0:04:24.080 I know you worked on that deal, right, and that 0:04:24.240 --> 0:04:27.600 was done with the consent order, meaning Live Nation promised 0:04:27.640 --> 0:04:29.400 to behave a certain way if they were allowed to 0:04:29.400 --> 0:04:32.760 buy the company, and essentially it's been alleged and investigated 0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:37.200 and found twice now that they violated that. So now 0:04:37.279 --> 0:04:39.400 the Department of Justice has just sued them and said, 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:42.600 you're engaging in all kinds of anti competitive activity by 0:04:42.680 --> 0:04:45.240 virtue of your strong position kind of in every aspect 0:04:45.560 --> 0:04:49.520 of the live concert and live event industry. And you 0:04:49.560 --> 0:04:51.960 know the only answer at this point is to force 0:04:52.000 --> 0:04:55.280 you to sell Ticketmaster because when we impose behavioral conditions, 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:56.160 you just ignore it. 0:04:56.960 --> 0:04:58.800 How do you see this resolving. Is this going to 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:01.120 be something where they battle it out to the very 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:04.000 end and get a verdict or are they going to 0:05:04.040 --> 0:05:05.240 try to settle. 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:09.200 Well, I think two different answers depending on the lawsuit 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:11.400 I think on the FTC lawsuit over the Bots Act 0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:14.840 probably ends in a settlement because the penalties are astronomical, 0:05:15.080 --> 0:05:18.039 you know, over fifty three thousand dollars per violation, and 0:05:18.040 --> 0:05:21.360 we're talking about probably five million violations a year, accounting 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:24.680 and counting right starting in twenty eighteen. So that probably 0:05:24.800 --> 0:05:27.520 ends in a settlement for a fraction of what ultimately 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:30.360 could be fined the Department of Justice suit. I suspect 0:05:30.440 --> 0:05:33.360 Live Nation will fight and fight for many years. That 0:05:33.400 --> 0:05:35.320 goes to trial in front of a jury in March. 0:05:35.560 --> 0:05:37.440 So we're actually probably going to have a verdict in 0:05:37.480 --> 0:05:40.040 the first quarter unless they managed to finacle a settlement, 0:05:40.040 --> 0:05:42.799 which I understand they're trying hard right now to settle 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:45.320 with the Trump administration. But if they don't, it goes 0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:47.880 to trial in March. We'll have a jury verdict. I 0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:50.080 think it'll be hard to find a jury that's not 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:52.600 going to be inclined to rule against Live Nation if 0:05:52.640 --> 0:05:54.360 they've ever tried to buy a ticket. 0:05:54.120 --> 0:05:56.479 For an event like how many finds one who's completely 0:05:56.520 --> 0:06:00.440 impractive about this and has no real firsthand experience exactly. 0:06:00.000 --> 0:06:02.720 Now, I look like as old stock analysts I am, 0:06:03.080 --> 0:06:04.880 I look at the stock, it's a twenty six percent 0:06:04.960 --> 0:06:07.400 yeah day. Is that the market telling me we've got 0:06:07.480 --> 0:06:10.520 an administration in office right now that might be open 0:06:10.560 --> 0:06:12.320 to a deal. Is that kind of what it's saying. 0:06:12.400 --> 0:06:14.520 I think so. I think there are those out there 0:06:14.560 --> 0:06:16.720 that think Live Nation may be able to get some 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:19.119 sort of a deal. You know, we know they're making 0:06:19.160 --> 0:06:22.359 a lot of efforts to do so in doing things 0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:25.320 the way seem to be have been successful for others 0:06:25.320 --> 0:06:28.719 with this administration, and I do think that's the sentiment. 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:32.159 But and also it's a long way away from something happening. 0:06:32.200 --> 0:06:34.440 Even if they lose this jury trial in March, then 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:37.000 the judge has to decide on a remedy, then they appeal, 0:06:37.240 --> 0:06:40.000 that remedy probably gets stayed pending the appeal, So we're 0:06:40.040 --> 0:06:42.839 really not looking at an impact for a couple more years. 0:06:43.200 --> 0:06:46.680 In the meantime, you have artists trying to you know, 0:06:46.800 --> 0:06:49.039 limit how they sell their tickets as well, and that 0:06:49.200 --> 0:06:52.280 just creates confusion for consumers too, you know, like they'll 0:06:52.800 --> 0:06:56.000 release a you know, slate of tickets and then hold 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:57.680 off and then release another slate of tickets, and if 0:06:57.720 --> 0:06:59.960 you want to transfer tickets to someone it's very different 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:01.880 goal on the Ticketmaster app because they want to make 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:04.120 sure that you're an actual person on the bot. I mean, 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:06.760 it just gets difficult for people who just want to 0:07:06.760 --> 0:07:07.200 go see. 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:09.279 A show, right, And that's why this is a politically 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:12.000 popular cause. You know, this is the one thing that 0:07:12.080 --> 0:07:14.720 leads me to think maybe the DJ won't settle with 0:07:15.120 --> 0:07:17.600 Live Nation despite the efforts, because this is really you know, 0:07:17.680 --> 0:07:20.120 the Taylor Swift fiasco brought it all to the forefront 0:07:20.160 --> 0:07:23.240 more than ever. Springsteen whor's Springsteen Right. There have been 0:07:23.280 --> 0:07:28.040 other issues since then, and it is politically popular. See 0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:28.840 what happens there. 0:07:28.920 --> 0:07:32.400 The only way you know, musical folks can make money 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:33.680 is touring, right. 0:07:33.520 --> 0:07:35.840 And don't get Spotify doesn't pay you anything. 0:07:36.120 --> 0:07:38.200 No, I mean, it's it, that's why you got. I mean, 0:07:38.240 --> 0:07:40.320 I saw Clapton, Eric Clapton. 0:07:39.960 --> 0:07:43.040 And the dude's eighty was sitting the entire time, no. 0:07:43.360 --> 0:07:47.640 No standing most of the time. Sounded great. You know, 0:07:47.840 --> 0:07:50.480 I don't know, but I mean, yeah, you know, there's 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:53.880 either selling their catalogs for hundreds of millions of dollars, right, 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:55.120 and they're still touring. 0:07:55.080 --> 0:07:58.040 And merch merch tons and tons, and that's the problem 0:07:58.040 --> 0:08:00.960 with these astronomical ticket prices that doesn't go back to 0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:03.080 the artist, you know, it's just going to the middle 0:08:03.080 --> 0:08:05.320 man or going to Live Nation or Ticketmaster, whoever the 0:08:05.320 --> 0:08:06.080 reseller is. 0:08:06.320 --> 0:08:09.320 Our thanks to Jennifer Ree, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Litigation Analyst, 0:08:09.760 --> 0:08:12.880 we move next to news from the memory chip maker Micron. 0:08:13.160 --> 0:08:16.120 This week, shares of the company fell after its forecast 0:08:16.160 --> 0:08:18.720 for the first quarter failed to impress investors, and this 0:08:18.800 --> 0:08:22.480 comes despite revenue and profit expectations being higher than estimated. 0:08:22.960 --> 0:08:26.040 In the backdrop, Micron stock has nearly doubled this year, 0:08:26.120 --> 0:08:28.320 rising at a faster pace than most of its chip piers, 0:08:28.680 --> 0:08:32.520 reflecting AI fueled optimism for more. Co host Scarlettfield w 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:36.000 Anden I were joined by Jake Silverman, Bloomberg Intelligence Semiconductor analyst. 0:08:36.480 --> 0:08:39.480 We first asked Jake why investors were disappointed with Micron. 0:08:39.760 --> 0:08:41.360 I think it has a lot to do with just 0:08:41.520 --> 0:08:45.800 very high expectations coming into the quarter. But overall, look, 0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:48.640 I mean, the fundamentals of the business remained very strong. 0:08:49.040 --> 0:08:51.559 I think the commentary on the call for management was 0:08:51.679 --> 0:08:54.680 very positive, and so I think we're going to continue 0:08:54.679 --> 0:08:56.480 to see an up cycle and memory at least for 0:08:56.520 --> 0:08:57.600 the near term. 0:08:58.320 --> 0:09:00.959 So what is the call here, what's the street looking 0:09:00.960 --> 0:09:03.360 for for this name? Again, A stocks just as you mentioned, 0:09:03.520 --> 0:09:05.920 ripped this year up ninety four percent year today. What's 0:09:05.960 --> 0:09:06.520 the call here? 0:09:07.120 --> 0:09:10.560 Yeah, No, I mean, I think investors are really looking 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:14.200 at high bandwidth memory, They're looking at AI, They're looking 0:09:14.200 --> 0:09:17.640 at data center related revenue. In the last fiscal year, 0:09:18.120 --> 0:09:21.160 data center related revenue was fifty to six percent of sales. 0:09:21.559 --> 0:09:25.719 So as demand continues for that, we also have to 0:09:25.800 --> 0:09:29.280 keep in mind that, you know, there's traditional products as 0:09:29.320 --> 0:09:31.240 well that are an important part of the business, that 0:09:31.280 --> 0:09:35.680 includes smartphones and PCs. Investors really want to see continued 0:09:35.720 --> 0:09:40.120 pricing strength. And as demand continues to grow for high 0:09:40.200 --> 0:09:43.920 bandwidth memory, which is very important for AI, and as 0:09:44.000 --> 0:09:47.840 capacity for that shifts over to high bandwith memory, it 0:09:47.880 --> 0:09:51.439 can further constrains the supply because it has lower yields, 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:54.240 it has larger die sizes, so there's only so much 0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:58.079 capacity industry and it's shifting over in favor of AI, 0:09:58.240 --> 0:10:02.000 and that's just constraining supply for traditional products. Which given 0:10:02.040 --> 0:10:05.600 the supply and demand, the importance of supplying demand balancing 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:09.040 the industry, it would suggest that as long as demand 0:10:09.040 --> 0:10:12.160 for AI continues to grow, we'll see further pricing increases. 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:14.559 So that's a lot of conditions. I mean, you talk 0:10:14.600 --> 0:10:17.679 about memory chips, which Micron is the biggest US maker of. 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:20.960 We know that this business is kind of famous or 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:24.199 infamous really for merging between booms and busts, and that 0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:28.280 results in these price wings to compensate for the previous 0:10:29.000 --> 0:10:33.520 you know, plethora of chips or dearth of chips. How 0:10:33.559 --> 0:10:36.000 does the AI revolution change this dynamic? 0:10:36.800 --> 0:10:37.040 Yeah? 0:10:37.120 --> 0:10:38.760 No, And as I said before, really I want to 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:41.920 put emphasis on the fact that high bandwidth memory demand 0:10:42.000 --> 0:10:45.640 constrain the supply for other products, specifically with DRAM. But 0:10:45.720 --> 0:10:48.480 DRAM now accounts for about eighty percent of sales for 0:10:48.520 --> 0:10:52.040 the company, so it's vastly more important than what we're 0:10:52.080 --> 0:10:54.960 seeing in NAND. But the other twenty percent of sales 0:10:54.960 --> 0:10:58.440 in NAND, we're also seeing strength for enterprise solid state drives, 0:10:58.440 --> 0:11:01.680 which are also important for AI. So yeah, look, I 0:11:01.679 --> 0:11:05.320 mean I think historically we've seen cycles up cycles tend 0:11:05.360 --> 0:11:08.439 to last somewhere between seven to ten quarters, but we're 0:11:08.440 --> 0:11:11.160 now extending beyond that. I mean, we're looking at, based 0:11:11.160 --> 0:11:14.040 on the guidance, at least twelve quarters and then based 0:11:14.080 --> 0:11:17.960 on the potential for further increases in pricing, it could 0:11:18.000 --> 0:11:20.280 extend all the way through the next fiscal yeur at 0:11:20.280 --> 0:11:24.000 a minimum. So yeah, I mean, really it's just kind 0:11:24.040 --> 0:11:26.920 of an almost unprecedented situation, or at least not something that 0:11:26.920 --> 0:11:28.959 we've seen in a very long time. And it really 0:11:29.000 --> 0:11:32.720 just comes from structural tailments from AI, both on demand, 0:11:32.760 --> 0:11:37.520 which is improving pricing via different products like high manWith memory, 0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:40.400 but also just because like I said before, it's just 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:44.280 constraining overall supply, and that's not just unique to Micron, 0:11:44.400 --> 0:11:47.000 that's true for both Skee Heinex and Samsung as well, 0:11:47.040 --> 0:11:49.320 and the three of them account for the vast majority 0:11:49.360 --> 0:11:52.720 of DRAM demand in the industry in nand as well. 0:11:52.840 --> 0:11:54.360 Yeah, Drake, that's kind kind of where I wanted to 0:11:54.360 --> 0:11:57.200 go the competitive landscape here. It feels like there's again 0:11:57.240 --> 0:12:01.240 you mentioned kind of three names there. Is that really 0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:04.000 kind of what's driving? Are those three companies driving this business? 0:12:04.480 --> 0:12:04.680 Yeah? 0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:07.280 Yeah, yeah, so eske Heinez has really had the lead 0:12:07.320 --> 0:12:10.280 in high bandwidth memory, Micron has become sort of a 0:12:10.400 --> 0:12:14.560 very fast follower, and now there's reports that Samsung will 0:12:14.600 --> 0:12:18.920 be supplying into Nvidia's Blackwell Ultra platform, which might pave 0:12:19.000 --> 0:12:21.640 the way into Rubin for them as well. So I mean, 0:12:21.679 --> 0:12:24.280 I think this three company dynamic that we'd seen for 0:12:24.320 --> 0:12:27.079 a very long time. Obviously you've had some Chinese competitors 0:12:27.120 --> 0:12:31.920 come on, but this three company dynamic that we saw 0:12:31.960 --> 0:12:34.720 in traditional DRAM seems to be now shaping up again 0:12:34.960 --> 0:12:39.319 for high bandwidth memory. So I think those past dynamics 0:12:39.360 --> 0:12:41.520 that we've seen are going to be the dynamics going 0:12:41.520 --> 0:12:42.199 forward again. 0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:46.240 Our thanks to Jake Silverman, Bloomberg Intelligence semiconductor analyst, coming 0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:48.680 up a look at how US drug Makropfiser is trying 0:12:48.679 --> 0:12:51.760 to carve its share of the BCD DRUB market. You're 0:12:51.800 --> 0:12:55.040 listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in depth 0:12:55.040 --> 0:12:57.319 research and data on two thousand companies and one hundred 0:12:57.320 --> 0:13:00.480 and thirty industries. You can access Bloomberg Intelligence VI A B. 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:03.319 I go on the terminal. I'm Paul Sweeney and this 0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:04.240 is Bloomberg. 0:13:08.440 --> 0:13:12.920 This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Foo and Paul Sweeney 0:13:13.280 --> 0:13:14.640 on Bloomberg Radio. 0:13:15.320 --> 0:13:17.440 We move now to the news in a pharmaceutical space. 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:20.160 This week, the US drugmaker Pfizer said it will pay 0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:23.400 four point nine billion dollars for the obesity startup met Sarah, 0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:26.120 it's a bid to catch up the rival drugmakers after 0:13:26.200 --> 0:13:29.320 failing to compete with its own weight loss medications From 0:13:29.320 --> 0:13:31.200 work co hosts Scarlett Foe when I were joined by 0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:34.679 Sam Fazzelli, Bloomberg Intelligence, Director of Research for Global Industries 0:13:34.960 --> 0:13:37.800 and senior pharmaceuticals analysts. We first asked Sam to give 0:13:37.880 --> 0:13:40.360 us some context on why this deal is important. 0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:45.000 Obesity is one of the key causes of a whole 0:13:45.080 --> 0:13:50.160 variety of diseases, cardiovascular, cancer, mental health. So if we 0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:52.280 can treat it, if we can prevent it, if we 0:13:52.320 --> 0:13:56.479 can reduce it, it's brilliant for the entirety of society. 0:13:56.840 --> 0:13:59.280 Here there is a deal where Fizer thinks they've got 0:13:59.280 --> 0:14:02.160 something that's going to be able to give them a 0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:05.480 chance at playing in this very important area and very 0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:09.440 massive market. Right. So the drugs are interesting, they're relatively 0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:13.240 early stage. We're looking to see with some new data 0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:15.720 coming up, whether some of the promise that we've seen 0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:18.679 earlier for these drugs that the company has, which the 0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:20.920 latest stage one is still in phase two they need 0:14:20.960 --> 0:14:24.440 to start the phase three in twenty twenty six, whether 0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:27.640 they are as competitive as they looked in the earlier trials. 0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:31.320 There were some questions on efficacy less so than side 0:14:31.320 --> 0:14:33.560 effect profile. So we'll have to wait and see how 0:14:33.560 --> 0:14:34.320 that pans out. 0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:36.680 Sam, can you get into the science a little bit 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:39.080 and maybe you know, keep it basic for folks like 0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:42.360 Paul and me, because Metzara is described as the next 0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:45.840 generation hopeful in obesities. They use these long acting analogs 0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:49.160 versus GLP one and I'm wondering for people who might 0:14:49.200 --> 0:14:53.320 be holding out for matsera's treatment what that means versus 0:14:53.440 --> 0:14:56.320 the currently available zip bound or we go vi. 0:14:57.600 --> 0:15:00.600 Yeah. Yeah, So the latest stage drug is very similar 0:15:00.600 --> 0:15:07.000 to we go v and similar to zepetite or zip bound, 0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:10.200 and the Amlin drug is a little bit early stay 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:14.720 earlier stage. There are companies we are more advanced drugs 0:15:14.760 --> 0:15:17.560 in that world, but they all kind of feed into 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:21.400 the same pathway, which is the pathway that talks between 0:15:21.520 --> 0:15:25.720 your food intake and your society centers in your brain 0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:30.040 and your insulin centers in your pancreas it tries to 0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:34.360 balance of eaten enough, let's stop eating now and let's 0:15:34.440 --> 0:15:37.240 release some insulin make it more sensitive so that we 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:40.200 can deal with the onslaughter sugar that comes into our blood. 0:15:40.360 --> 0:15:42.680 That's where they are, is that's central to that space. 0:15:43.040 --> 0:15:48.400 There's cells in the gut that release glucle like JLP ones, 0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:51.960 grouking like peptize the cells in other parts of the 0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:54.640 body who are responding to it. So that's where these 0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:57.240 things sit, and amlin is just one of those agents 0:15:57.280 --> 0:15:58.120 in the middle of it. 0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:00.000 Say, I'm just kind of stepping back. 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:02.960 Is GLP one drugs in general, there's a certain level 0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:07.120 of efficacy today, there's a certain level of say, side effects, 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:09.960 whether it's large or something else today. Is there a 0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:13.320 room for improvement on both efficacy and side effects going 0:16:13.360 --> 0:16:14.280 forward with these drugs? 0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:17.400 Yeah, I mean with it's the balance that's the most important. 0:16:17.400 --> 0:16:19.280 With efficacy, I think we're pretty much there. I mean, 0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:21.000 you know, there are folks that we know that go 0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:22.600 on a drug for a week or two and they 0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:25.200 lose four or five kilograms. That's fine. You don't want 0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:27.760 to lose much faster than that, because I don't think 0:16:27.760 --> 0:16:30.720 it's particularly healthy if you lose weight at a much 0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:33.520 higher speed. And also you don't want to get much 0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:36.920 lighter than a aty kilo or ninety kilo or seventy five 0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:39.400 kilograms depending on your size. So the key is how 0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:42.320 do you get there. If you get there by having 0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:44.600 lots of side effects, then your probability of staying on 0:16:44.640 --> 0:16:46.520 the drug is lower, but we want you to stay 0:16:46.560 --> 0:16:49.280 on the drug. So it's a very very tight balance. 0:16:49.480 --> 0:16:51.320 And then of course you have to figure out what 0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:54.200 am I happy taking a weekly injection, which I think 0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:56.160 a lot of people are not. Don't have a problem 0:16:56.160 --> 0:16:58.440 with it, But what if Mitcera is right and push 0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:01.400 it to once monthly, if some of the other competitent 0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:04.680 is coming along with once every three months. Now, those 0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:06.240 are things that we have to wait and see how 0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:08.919 the data shows in terms of that balance of just 0:17:08.960 --> 0:17:09.480 referred to. 0:17:09.920 --> 0:17:12.800 Our thanks to Sam Fazeli, Bloomberg Intelligence, Director of Research 0:17:12.800 --> 0:17:16.280 for Global Industries and senior pharmaceuticals analysts. Staying in the 0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:19.679 pharmaceutical space. This week, the Trump administration linked thiland on 0:17:19.760 --> 0:17:22.520 to autism and urge pregnant women to avoid the common 0:17:22.600 --> 0:17:25.800 pain medication, and this comes despite the lack of widely 0:17:25.840 --> 0:17:29.600 accepted scientific evidence supporting the risk. For more co host 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:32.280 Scarlett Field and I were joined by a Hunter Bloomberg 0:17:32.320 --> 0:17:36.320 Intelligence senior equity analysts for biopharmaceuticals. You first asked Ann 0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:38.639 about the science behind the latest news. 0:17:38.920 --> 0:17:42.000 There are a lot of studies on it. It's certainly 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:45.359 driven by an increase in finding a solution for the 0:17:45.400 --> 0:17:48.800 increased rates of ADHD and autism. I think it's really 0:17:48.800 --> 0:17:52.680 important here to qualify or quantify what we're talking about 0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:55.399 with frequent Thailand all use, and most of the studies 0:17:55.400 --> 0:17:58.800 are looking at measured as more than twenty eight days 0:17:58.840 --> 0:18:00.879 over the course of your pregnant see, so that is 0:18:01.280 --> 0:18:03.200 a lot of tile and all use. We're not talking 0:18:03.240 --> 0:18:05.920 about you have a high fever and you take it 0:18:06.040 --> 0:18:08.440 for a day or two. This is this is kind 0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:12.919 of more long term use. There is a correlation between 0:18:12.920 --> 0:18:16.720 tile and all use and these disorders and children, and 0:18:16.760 --> 0:18:19.080 I'll probably lose listeners if I go too deeply. But 0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:23.320 correlation is not causation. Those are two separate things. And 0:18:23.560 --> 0:18:25.440 while there's a lot of literature out there, a lot 0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:29.119 of clinical studies, I would argue that the best ones 0:18:29.240 --> 0:18:33.000 look at sibling analysis, so they compare a mother who 0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:37.200 had frequent use during one pregnancy and not the next, 0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:39.840 and that's the best way to kind of look at this. 0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:43.600 And in those studies there was no findings of increased risks, 0:18:43.600 --> 0:18:45.320 and there have been several There was a two and 0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:47.359 a half million dollars a two and a half million 0:18:47.440 --> 0:18:50.840 children study in Sweden, as well as a more recent 0:18:51.200 --> 0:18:55.320 one out of Japan. Unfortunately, randomized trials are are difficult 0:18:55.359 --> 0:18:58.439 to do, there's just too many variables. But the sibling 0:18:58.480 --> 0:19:00.639 analysis is probably the best we have. 0:19:01.119 --> 0:19:03.240 So And when I think about the companies that are affected, 0:19:03.320 --> 0:19:07.080 certainly ken View, which owns the Talnyl brand. Tailanol's generic 0:19:07.200 --> 0:19:08.960 name is a seed of menaphin, and there are many 0:19:09.000 --> 0:19:11.920 other companies that make a seed of menaphin as well. 0:19:12.000 --> 0:19:14.080 Are we seeing them impacted in any way? 0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:15.080 You know? 0:19:15.320 --> 0:19:17.560 This is even for ken View, this is maybe a 0:19:17.640 --> 0:19:20.920 high single digit portion of sales, and that's thailenol overall, 0:19:21.200 --> 0:19:24.080 So you assume that the pregnant population is a much 0:19:24.080 --> 0:19:28.119