1
00:00:01,320 --> 00:00:01,960
Speaker 1: The volume.

2
00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:15,720
Speaker 2: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up,

3
00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:21,480
Speaker 2: Drake Firefam, It's me Jason McIntyre, Straight Fire for Wednesday,

4
00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:26,480
Speaker 2: February seventh. Here we go. Your boys starting to percolate

5
00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:31,240
Speaker 2: in college Oops three and one last night, I'll take it.

6
00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:34,080
Speaker 2: Two and zero on Monday. Been on a bit of

7
00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:36,680
Speaker 2: a heater. There was that ugly Saturday early in January

8
00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:39,920
Speaker 2: where I was five and one. Outside of that day,

9
00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:42,360
Speaker 2: it's been a banger of a twenty twenty four in

10
00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:45,120
Speaker 2: college basketball. Yes, I'm watching some of the games. Yes,

11
00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:48,080
Speaker 2: Texas let me down, but it's like I've got free

12
00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:50,479
Speaker 2: time now. I really do have some four free time now.

13
00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:53,040
Speaker 2: The football's freed up a lot of it. But we

14
00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:56,160
Speaker 2: get back on the football track today with an awesome

15
00:00:56,160 --> 00:01:01,120
Speaker 2: interview with a gambling machine. It's crazy. He is one

16
00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:05,520
Speaker 2: of the most prolific prop betters in on any NFL space.

17
00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:07,800
Speaker 2: Like that's written about The Washington Post wrote about it

18
00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:12,600
Speaker 2: many moons ago, and Rufus Peabody returns to the podcast. Folks.

19
00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:15,320
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna say, I know sometimes people will listen

20
00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:18,800
Speaker 2: to this while they're driving or at the two speeds,

21
00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:20,600
Speaker 2: so you kind of speed it up. I'm just saying

22
00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:24,400
Speaker 2: there's a lot of actionable info here. He gives some

23
00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:27,960
Speaker 2: of the bets he's made. He some strategies that he

24
00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:30,720
Speaker 2: has in regard to some of the prop bets. I'm

25
00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:32,560
Speaker 2: not gonna spoil it. Let's just jump right into it.

26
00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:37,600
Speaker 2: Let's welcome in. Rufus Peabody gambler, extraordinary to talk about

27
00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:42,760
Speaker 2: Super Bowl and prop bets. You know a guy Jason

28
00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:45,840
Speaker 2: likes to think he knows everything when it comes to sports.

29
00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:48,040
Speaker 2: I know what sports fans want.

30
00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:51,080
Speaker 1: But for everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does.

31
00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,240
Speaker 1: Let's just say, I know a guy who knows a

32
00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:56,280
Speaker 1: guy who knows another guy.

33
00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:59,440
Speaker 2: All right, let's welcome into straight fire. Rufus Peabody. You

34
00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:03,040
Speaker 2: know him. He was featured in the Washington Post many

35
00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:06,760
Speaker 2: moons ago as like the definitive prop bet gambler for

36
00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:08,600
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. He's been on the pod before. Rufus,

37
00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:09,200
Speaker 2: How are you man?

38
00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:12,360
Speaker 1: Man? That was so long ago, Jason, that was literally

39
00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:16,200
Speaker 1: like twenty eleven, So it's amazing to think it's been

40
00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:17,120
Speaker 1: thirteen whole years.

41
00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:19,920
Speaker 2: Wow, yeah, twy eleven. Now a lot's changed in the

42
00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:21,960
Speaker 2: prop bet world since then, right.

43
00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:25,200
Speaker 1: Yes, it's the ecosystem is completely different at this point.

44
00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:27,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna start with a layup for you.

45
00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:32,200
Speaker 2: Are you wagering on any Taylor Swift props? And if so,

46
00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:34,400
Speaker 2: are you leaning toward all? I know you're one of

47
00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:37,839
Speaker 2: these like smart prop betters where you could just see

48
00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:40,239
Speaker 2: value if it's negative one thousand, and you'll just lay

49
00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:43,200
Speaker 2: the lumber. But are you doing anything on any Taylor

50
00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:44,200
Speaker 2: Swift prop bets?

51
00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:46,839
Speaker 1: I'm not planning on it. They don't offer those here

52
00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:50,760
Speaker 1: at legal bets in the US, and so you know,

53
00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:52,600
Speaker 1: I don't I don't even know what any of them are.

54
00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:55,200
Speaker 1: I heard there was a prop bet on whether Travis

55
00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:58,400
Speaker 1: Kelcey will propose to her during the game. I feel

56
00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:01,400
Speaker 1: like there's got to be a value on the Know there,

57
00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:03,600
Speaker 1: like it was like minus two thirty on the Know

58
00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:06,040
Speaker 1: or something crazy like that. Yeah, But at the same time,

59
00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:09,880
Speaker 1: celebrities are notoriously difficult to predict, at least them doing

60
00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:11,919
Speaker 1: sort of quote normal things.

61
00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:15,560
Speaker 2: Wait, so like, for instance, one of them is who

62
00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:19,240
Speaker 2: is shown first during the national anthem, like Taylor Swift

63
00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:22,040
Speaker 2: or Travis kelce or Jason Kelsey, Who's going to be

64
00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:25,200
Speaker 2: there Obviously you're saying you can't bet on that legally

65
00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:27,000
Speaker 2: in the United States, that's only an all shore.

66
00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:30,640
Speaker 1: Thing exactly, and you don't have gaming boards approving that

67
00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:34,360
Speaker 1: kind of thing in Nevada, for example. In Nevada, the

68
00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:36,400
Speaker 1: event has to be decided on the field and it

69
00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:39,240
Speaker 1: needs to be discernible from like the play by play.

70
00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:41,560
Speaker 1: I think that's the rule there. So you can't bet

71
00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:43,840
Speaker 1: on the color of gatorade dumped on the winning head

72
00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:44,839
Speaker 1: coach or anything like that.

73
00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:48,240
Speaker 2: All right, So first of all, let's go start here.

74
00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:51,120
Speaker 2: The last time we spoke was like in October, and

75
00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:53,760
Speaker 2: you were running into some issues with the usual trolls

76
00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:56,080
Speaker 2: on the internet. I am just curious, how did the

77
00:03:56,120 --> 00:04:00,480
Speaker 2: season go for you from a betting perspective. Sides, total, props,

78
00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:02,280
Speaker 2: whatever haves, whatever you did?

79
00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:06,400
Speaker 1: Which season? Any time football? Yeah, So I don't bet

80
00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:09,560
Speaker 1: NFL sides and totals anymore. Full game sides and totals.

81
00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:13,800
Speaker 2: Totally off, totally don't holy And I'm assuming you're doing

82
00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:16,800
Speaker 2: that or you're not doing that because you just cannot

83
00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:17,600
Speaker 2: find an edge at all.

84
00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:21,120
Speaker 1: Well, it's also it's not worth the time and effort

85
00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:24,600
Speaker 1: to spend on it. So there there are what now

86
00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:29,640
Speaker 1: there are two hundred and seventy something regular season NFL games,

87
00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:34,400
Speaker 1: whereas there are two hundred and seventy college basketball games

88
00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:38,280
Speaker 1: in one week. Like if you think about where where

89
00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:43,200
Speaker 1: the where where? What is the best return on time spent? Like? Yeah,

90
00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:46,599
Speaker 1: if you know, I still have the mass Epeabody, Yeah,

91
00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:50,240
Speaker 1: rating system, and I think it's still I still think

92
00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:54,080
Speaker 1: it's solid, But I don't think that it doesn't have

93
00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:56,440
Speaker 1: the alpha used to because the markets come a long way,

94
00:04:56,520 --> 00:05:00,960
Speaker 1: and I think just the amount of effort to required

95
00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:04,440
Speaker 1: to beat NFL sides and totals, it's just is very high,

96
00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:07,560
Speaker 1: and so I can only do so many things.

97
00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:09,760
Speaker 2: Jason, Yeah, no, no, that makes sense. So let me

98
00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:12,240
Speaker 2: ask about massive Peabody. So you said it use it

99
00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:15,080
Speaker 2: doesn't have the alpha it used to. What do you

100
00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:18,040
Speaker 2: think has changed in the last I don't know, five

101
00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:20,760
Speaker 2: six years or whatever timeframe to make it so that

102
00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:22,200
Speaker 2: it doesn't have the alpha anymore.

103
00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:25,640
Speaker 1: Well, I think we haven't. We haven't put as much

104
00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:29,600
Speaker 1: time and effort into improving the system, because I think

105
00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:33,880
Speaker 1: if if you're not continuously improving, you keep falling behind

106
00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:36,160
Speaker 1: as markets get more and more efficient. And I think

107
00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:38,760
Speaker 1: a big thing is there's more data publicly available out there,

108
00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:41,760
Speaker 1: and there's better data out there. Now there's you know,

109
00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:46,120
Speaker 1: the tracking data. You have things like Pro Football Focus

110
00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:49,920
Speaker 1: with grades and on plays, you have people charting stuff.

111
00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:53,159
Speaker 1: I mean this we're far cry from the from the

112
00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:55,120
Speaker 1: time when having play by play was thought of. Is

113
00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:57,120
Speaker 1: having really great data.

114
00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:59,520
Speaker 2: So don't you think though, that the more data we

115
00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:02,240
Speaker 2: have through Pro Football Focus and everyone else, that it

116
00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:04,800
Speaker 2: would help gamblers or are you saying it's hurt.

117
00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:07,920
Speaker 1: It helps everybody. It helps So it helps everybody. If

118
00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:10,880
Speaker 1: everybody has all the data, then then the market becomes

119
00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:14,400
Speaker 1: more efficient sports where there's data that's less accessible and

120
00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:16,120
Speaker 1: you have to grind pretty hard to get it. That's

121
00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:18,520
Speaker 1: kind of there's more of an edge to that. So

122
00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:21,400
Speaker 1: the more because the thing is, sure, yes, we can

123
00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:25,680
Speaker 1: quantify these things way better, but so can everybody. Right.

124
00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:28,000
Speaker 2: Interesting, So what does if you don't mind me asking,

125
00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:33,560
Speaker 2: what does Massy Peabody say about Niners, chiefs side and total.

126
00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:36,200
Speaker 1: We make not we don't do totals, but we make

127
00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:39,400
Speaker 1: Niners just less than a four point favorite four.

128
00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:42,680
Speaker 2: Okay, So that gets to the crux of the problem here,

129
00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:45,640
Speaker 2: not just Massy Peabody. But continue, Oh.

130
00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:49,599
Speaker 1: You're going to say the Patrick Home Mahomes playoff.

131
00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:51,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, right, is that not raccurate? I mean

132
00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:53,640
Speaker 2: the Niners, over the course of the body of the

133
00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:55,600
Speaker 2: seventeen games, were the best team in the league.

134
00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:57,760
Speaker 1: You know, Rakes were really good, the Ravens.

135
00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:01,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, But all of a sudden in the playoffs, Patrick

136
00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:06,120
Speaker 2: Mahomes has turned into an efficiency machine. He's not throwing interceptions,

137
00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:08,400
Speaker 2: no fumbles, and the receivers are dropped catching everything where

138
00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:11,320
Speaker 2: they dropp during the regular season. You can't quantify that, right,

139
00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:14,320
Speaker 2: It's just things are different. But it's a sample size.

140
00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:18,360
Speaker 1: I mean, they're they're they're I mean, that's part of it. Sure,

141
00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:20,560
Speaker 1: But I think, I mean, Patrick Mahomes is playing at

142
00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:22,720
Speaker 1: a very very high level. The team has gotten better

143
00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,840
Speaker 1: as the season goes on, and you do wait more

144
00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:29,280
Speaker 1: recent performance more heavily, at least we do, so. I

145
00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:33,560
Speaker 1: do think the Chiefs have closed that gap substantially. But

146
00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,240
Speaker 1: they You're right, they were not. The Chiefs were used to,

147
00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:39,600
Speaker 1: especially on offense early in the season. It's kind of funny.

148
00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:41,400
Speaker 1: They kind of flipped around like they're a team that's

149
00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:44,080
Speaker 1: had a bad defense for years. It was the defense

150
00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:45,360
Speaker 1: that carried him early in the season.

151
00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:49,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a weird I don't know. I mean, you're

152
00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:52,600
Speaker 2: gonna hate this, but you know, I think every single

153
00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:56,000
Speaker 2: person I've asked, whether it's at Fox, on this podcast, friends,

154
00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:58,520
Speaker 2: I coach my kids in sports, and I like, talk

155
00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:01,720
Speaker 2: to the referees. Everybody Rufus is on the Chiefs.

156
00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:04,200
Speaker 1: And yet you talk to the referees. Do you know

157
00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:06,840
Speaker 1: that I was a well I was. I was a youth.

158
00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:10,880
Speaker 1: I refereed youth soccer, so I aired, I umpired Little

159
00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:13,040
Speaker 1: league baseball, and those were like the best jobs ever.

160
00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:14,520
Speaker 1: Like is a kid is it?

161
00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:14,720
Speaker 2: Is? It?

162
00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:14,920
Speaker 1: Like?

163
00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:16,160
Speaker 2: Is a what?

164
00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,560
Speaker 1: I guess? I started thirteen to eighteen year old? Like

165
00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:21,240
Speaker 1: you know what's better than that?

166
00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:23,760
Speaker 2: It was amazing. But of course, you know, I have

167
00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:25,880
Speaker 2: a podcast, I'm on a TV show, so the referees

168
00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:27,120
Speaker 2: kind of know me and they're like, hey, I saw

169
00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:30,280
Speaker 2: your rams take you fool you know whatever. Anyway, it's

170
00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:32,320
Speaker 2: it's all fun and games, but Rufus, the point is,

171
00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:35,280
Speaker 2: every single person that I've talked to is on the Chiefs,

172
00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:39,000
Speaker 2: every single one, and yet the favorite.

173
00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:43,400
Speaker 1: Yeah I have I have no opinion there. I really

174
00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:47,640
Speaker 1: don't like I think I'm not gonna have a bet

175
00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:48,480
Speaker 1: on the side. I'm really not.

176
00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:52,000
Speaker 2: Why wouldn't you do? What about a money line bet?

177
00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:54,720
Speaker 2: Is there no nothing there for you niners? Not as

178
00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:58,240
Speaker 2: money line minus one twenty eight? Is it?

179
00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:02,160
Speaker 1: No? I mean, I think the super Bowl side market

180
00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:06,920
Speaker 1: is a very big, very liquid market. It's I think

181
00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:10,720
Speaker 1: I'm going to attack markets that are a little less

182
00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:15,719
Speaker 1: liquid and ones that are I mean some of them

183
00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:18,760
Speaker 1: actually get fairly liquid, but ones where the tend to

184
00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:19,600
Speaker 1: be a little more biased.

185
00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:23,679
Speaker 2: Yes. So, for instance, guys coming into the super Bowl

186
00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:27,720
Speaker 2: this week, you know mister Big Whale from Texas. He

187
00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:30,160
Speaker 2: can't get down four hundred thousand dollars on a Kansas

188
00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,520
Speaker 2: basketball game, right or Kenny, I don't know in Vegas.

189
00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:34,400
Speaker 2: But if he wants to bet four hundred thousand dollars

190
00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:37,640
Speaker 2: on the side, all the casinos will take his money, right, Yeah, for.

191
00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:41,560
Speaker 1: The Super Bowl. If they don't, they're idiots, right.

192
00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:45,440
Speaker 2: So I guess my question would be, if you don't

193
00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:47,959
Speaker 2: want to do a side or total, are you changing

194
00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:50,600
Speaker 2: your view on props or is that still the same

195
00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:53,120
Speaker 2: You're still going heavy on props.

196
00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:55,520
Speaker 1: I'm still heavy on props here. And the thing is

197
00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:58,560
Speaker 1: with the props. I'm assuming the market's correct for the

198
00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:01,280
Speaker 1: side in the total, I'm assuming game is a minus

199
00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:03,360
Speaker 1: two forty seven and a half. If that's what it

200
00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:06,240
Speaker 1: you know, that's what it was right earlier today. I

201
00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:09,560
Speaker 1: don't know if it might have moved. But and so

202
00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:13,080
Speaker 1: when you sort of ask, when people ask me, well,

203
00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:15,679
Speaker 1: are you looking at sort of these different narratives that

204
00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:18,200
Speaker 1: could play out or these different game scripts, like like

205
00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:21,480
Speaker 1: what what are I'm looking at a wide range of them,

206
00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:23,839
Speaker 1: basically all what are the different possible game scripts that

207
00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:26,599
Speaker 1: can play out with the two point favorite in a

208
00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:29,760
Speaker 1: total forty seven and a half. Right, there's a possibility

209
00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:32,000
Speaker 1: that both teams blow out the other. It's more likely

210
00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:32,760
Speaker 1: it's a close game.

211
00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:36,760
Speaker 2: I remember, I think it was you who when the

212
00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:39,560
Speaker 2: Rams played the Patriots there was a bet on no

213
00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:41,720
Speaker 2: touchdown And I don't was that you.

214
00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:44,080
Speaker 1: I was one of the people that had that.

215
00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:46,640
Speaker 2: Okay, so it's I mean it was that would have

216
00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:48,320
Speaker 2: been Would that have been your greatest hit ever? No

217
00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:50,680
Speaker 2: touchdown in the Super Bowl? You would have probably be retired.

218
00:10:50,679 --> 00:10:52,000
Speaker 2: You wouldn't be doing podcasts right now?

219
00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:54,600
Speaker 1: Right? No? I think I mean, well, we hit Rams

220
00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:57,120
Speaker 1: to have exactly three points at like a gazillion to one,

221
00:10:57,160 --> 00:10:58,000
Speaker 1: So that was good.

222
00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:01,080
Speaker 2: Okay, all right, so you know the audience roofus is

223
00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:03,080
Speaker 2: clearly like, all right, cool on, there's got to be

224
00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:05,520
Speaker 2: something something you see and now listen, I get it.

225
00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:07,120
Speaker 2: You're five hundred thousand dollars bets. You're not going to

226
00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:09,880
Speaker 2: give them out on a podcast. That being said, can

227
00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:12,120
Speaker 2: you at least talk us through some stuff that you've

228
00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:16,920
Speaker 2: found interesting in your data that you maybe have seen mispriced,

229
00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:18,360
Speaker 2: even if it's been corrected since.

230
00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:24,040
Speaker 1: Then, you know, so honestly, Jason, you said earlier that

231
00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:26,400
Speaker 1: things have changed a lot in props, and they have,

232
00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:28,280
Speaker 1: and I think this is one of the big changes

233
00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:32,960
Speaker 1: is we're not betting stuff early. We're betting stuff late now.

234
00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:37,000
Speaker 1: But back in the day, what we did was we

235
00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:42,400
Speaker 1: basically raised other professional betting groups to betting these opening lines.

236
00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:45,640
Speaker 1: So when the win would come out with will there

237
00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:48,120
Speaker 1: be a rough in the passer penalty and I can

238
00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:50,640
Speaker 1: bet no at minus one point fifteen, we wanted to

239
00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:53,079
Speaker 1: be first there to bet it and be able to

240
00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:54,480
Speaker 1: bet it and bet it and bet it until it

241
00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:57,440
Speaker 1: moved all the way to minus two hundred. That's where

242
00:11:57,480 --> 00:11:59,480
Speaker 1: there was a lot of value because these books were

243
00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:02,679
Speaker 1: not seting odds on these props. They weren't offering these

244
00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:04,319
Speaker 1: props every week. It was sort of a once a

245
00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:07,520
Speaker 1: year type thing. But now with legalization, you have DraftKings,

246
00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:10,599
Speaker 1: you have fan Duel, Caesars, et cetera, offering like a

247
00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:15,400
Speaker 1: wide array of props every single week, and so they

248
00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:19,280
Speaker 1: get that feedback. They're not idiots at least mostly so

249
00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:21,680
Speaker 1: that they have an idea. They have an idea of

250
00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:23,640
Speaker 1: how to price does so a lot of these game

251
00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:27,360
Speaker 1: props where there used to be valued just by building,

252
00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:29,520
Speaker 1: Like I could build an algorithm and I find value.

253
00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:31,680
Speaker 1: I mean they figured out how to build the algorithms too.

254
00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:36,840
Speaker 1: So basically there isn't this amazing gravy train when openers

255
00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:39,880
Speaker 1: come out because books have an idea what they're doing.

256
00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:45,920
Speaker 1: So but because I will say, the market has expanded though,

257
00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:48,319
Speaker 1: and so you can actually get down a lot more

258
00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:50,880
Speaker 1: the week end of the Super Bowl than you could

259
00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:53,280
Speaker 1: in the past. And what you do have is the

260
00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:56,040
Speaker 1: public betting on overs and betting on things to happen,

261
00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:59,720
Speaker 1: and so there's oftentimes big opportunities sort of fading the

262
00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:04,600
Speaker 1: super stars and getting higher limits and really inflated numbers

263
00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:09,160
Speaker 1: on Super Bowl Sunday, like two years ago. In every year,

264
00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:13,760
Speaker 1: it's hard to predict exactly which one, which prop is

265
00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:19,520
Speaker 1: going to really steam hard one direction. I mean, I

266
00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:22,480
Speaker 1: anticipate there'll be a lot of value betting against Travis

267
00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:25,920
Speaker 1: kelcey to do things betting against Christian McCaffrey, because those

268
00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:29,000
Speaker 1: are the stars, those are the narratives. Same with Mahomes.

269
00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:34,480
Speaker 1: But every year there's there's you know, there's maybe one

270
00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:36,080
Speaker 1: guy that I expect to have a lot of value

271
00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:37,880
Speaker 1: betting against and we don't end up having it. But

272
00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:40,720
Speaker 1: like I still remember two years ago, you had Cooper

273
00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:43,080
Speaker 1: cup receiving yards prop move all the way from like

274
00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:45,960
Speaker 1: ninety and a half yards up and I remember getting

275
00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:48,560
Speaker 1: one hundred and twelve and a half like at MGM

276
00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:51,720
Speaker 1: on game day. Like that lasted for you know, five

277
00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:53,960
Speaker 1: minutes before someone bets it and then you know, but

278
00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:57,480
Speaker 1: it ended up closing, you know, consensus in the range

279
00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:01,040
Speaker 1: of like one hundred and six two hundre ten. Like

280
00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:06,560
Speaker 1: though you do see these overreactions and well, two weeks ago,

281
00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:12,480
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson, I guess this is against Houston. His rushing

282
00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:16,000
Speaker 1: yards prop was lined at in the mid forties, he

283
00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:18,120
Speaker 1: had a big game one hundred and ten yards rushing.

284
00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:20,960
Speaker 1: That line steamed all the way up. The next week,

285
00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:23,880
Speaker 1: his rushing yards prop against the Chiefs steamed all the

286
00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,600
Speaker 1: way up to sixty nine yards, just based on one

287
00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:30,680
Speaker 1: week of data. So these markets do overreact, and so

288
00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:34,480
Speaker 1: I think the other well, the last piece of equation

289
00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:36,600
Speaker 1: Jason is I do think that the super Bowl being

290
00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:40,440
Speaker 1: in Vegas does have an impact here, not on the

291
00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:45,680
Speaker 1: actual gameplay, but just on the on the prop betting.

292
00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:48,360
Speaker 1: And I think we're going to see a lot more

293
00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:52,440
Speaker 1: recreational bets coming in in the state of Nevada. I mean,

294
00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:56,320
Speaker 1: because first off, normally Vegas is a destination for the

295
00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:58,160
Speaker 1: super Bowl. Even when the super Bowl is not here,

296
00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:00,000
Speaker 1: people love coming out here for the super Bowl party,

297
00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:05,720
Speaker 1: drinking betting. You have that times a lot now with

298
00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:09,440
Speaker 1: the game actually being here, and you know, I mean,

299
00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:11,160
Speaker 1: I was just over on Radio Row. It's a bit

300
00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:15,720
Speaker 1: of a there's it's a circus already, and I anticipate

301
00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:18,720
Speaker 1: we're just going to see a lot more a lot

302
00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:25,040
Speaker 1: more bets from square recreational players, which could move those

303
00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:29,680
Speaker 1: lines like YEA even further from where they should.

304
00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:32,360
Speaker 2: Because is it safe to call them that dumb money

305
00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:32,960
Speaker 2: roofless or no.

306
00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:35,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's it's it's money that's looking to

307
00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:38,720
Speaker 1: have fun. I think, like, look, sports betting, it doesn't

308
00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:42,280
Speaker 1: mean they're dumb people or anything. Sports bettings entertainment, entertainment, right, yeah,

309
00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:44,960
Speaker 1: I'm betting. I don't want to. I don't want to, Like,

310
00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:47,680
Speaker 1: it's not fun to root against a safety happening, because

311
00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:50,400
Speaker 1: you know, it's not fun to lay minus a thousand

312
00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:52,360
Speaker 1: on something and just be like, I really hope this

313
00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:54,600
Speaker 1: doesn't happen. It's a lot more fun to root for

314
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,080
Speaker 1: things to happen. And some people get their entertainment dollar

315
00:15:57,160 --> 00:15:59,880
Speaker 1: doing that. But it means that but they're predictably a

316
00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:04,800
Speaker 1: rational and doing so irrational in terms of maximizing their

317
00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:08,360
Speaker 1: expected value betting, maybe not in terms of maximizing their entertainment.

318
00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:12,040
Speaker 1: And so that creates opportunities if you know, if you

319
00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:12,760
Speaker 1: know where to look.

320
00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:14,800
Speaker 2: For him, so fading the public. So I just looked

321
00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:17,280
Speaker 2: up what Cup did in the Super Bowl. I remember

322
00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:19,280
Speaker 2: he was MVP of the Super Bowl. I'm like, oh,

323
00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:22,520
Speaker 2: he had a mass I believe, right, ninety two yards. Yeah,

324
00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:25,200
Speaker 2: So if you bet it, well, I think you said

325
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:26,840
Speaker 2: it went all the way up, So it sounds like

326
00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:31,080
Speaker 2: only if you bet it early, you hit it the yeah,

327
00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:33,680
Speaker 2: otherwise you lost. And I would assume a lot of

328
00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:35,600
Speaker 2: the random recreational guys lost on that.

329
00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:37,840
Speaker 1: I would think almost everybody. I think, I think it.

330
00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:40,760
Speaker 1: I don't actually remember if it was ever ninety two.

331
00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:42,720
Speaker 1: I remember seeing it in the mid to high nineties

332
00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:44,560
Speaker 1: most of the week before.

333
00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:47,720
Speaker 2: Okay, so playing that game and again is fading the

334
00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:49,360
Speaker 2: public and I say that or I know you got

335
00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:50,800
Speaker 2: you and Jeff hate that on your podcast.

336
00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:54,360
Speaker 1: Well, but in this particular case, yes, I think you

337
00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:59,360
Speaker 1: can say that. Okay, this is the Super Bowl. Props

338
00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:02,680
Speaker 1: are rare where you'll have times where the closing line

339
00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:08,240
Speaker 1: is less efficient than the opening line normally. Normally the

340
00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:10,240
Speaker 1: closing line is the best predictor of what's going to happen.

341
00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:14,160
Speaker 1: But you have so much money, so much recreational money

342
00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:18,440
Speaker 1: relative to sharp money coming in, and books in these cases, actually,

343
00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:23,000
Speaker 1: especially in Nevada, less so less so the sort of

344
00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:26,639
Speaker 1: national sports books. But they don't want a ton of

345
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:28,960
Speaker 1: liability on one thing. They're gonna move, They're gonna move

346
00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:30,960
Speaker 1: their their prices. You know, they don't want to lose

347
00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:34,160
Speaker 1: five hundred thousand dollars. If Kelsey has you know, eight

348
00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:36,439
Speaker 1: receptions or something like that, they're going to move that

349
00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:38,919
Speaker 1: price to try to draw some action on the unders.

350
00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:42,520
Speaker 1: If they're getting a ton of overaction and it the

351
00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:44,600
Speaker 1: books end up rooting for the same thing I'm rooting for.

352
00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,120
Speaker 1: That's the funny thing. I'm betting against them, but they

353
00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:47,680
Speaker 1: hope I win.

354
00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:50,960
Speaker 2: Yes, exactly because because the recreational money is so overwhelming.

355
00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:54,240
Speaker 2: Looking for a super offer for Super Bowl fifty eight,

356
00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:57,440
Speaker 2: Draftking sports Book has you covered. New customers can bet

357
00:17:57,480 --> 00:18:00,160
Speaker 2: on the Big Game and turn five bucks into two

358
00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:04,280
Speaker 2: hundred instantly in bonus bets. The line opened with San

359
00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:09,000
Speaker 2: Francisco as a short favorite in the rematch from the

360
00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:12,560
Speaker 2: twenty twenty Super Bowl. Very excited. If you listen to

361
00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,359
Speaker 2: the pod, you know which way I'm leaning. Download the

362
00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:19,720
Speaker 2: Draftking Sportsbook app now and use code straight fire. New

363
00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:23,120
Speaker 2: customers can bet five bucks to get two hundred instantly

364
00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:26,520
Speaker 2: in bonus bets only on DraftKings Sportsbook and official sports

365
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:30,719
Speaker 2: betting partner of Super Bowl fifty eight. With code straight fire,

366
00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:34,119
Speaker 2: The Crown is Yours gambling problem called one eight hundred

367
00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:38,000
Speaker 2: Gambler or visit www dot one eight hundred gambler dot

368
00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:41,960
Speaker 2: net in New York called eight seven seven eight hope

369
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:44,880
Speaker 2: and why, or text hope and why four six seven

370
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:48,000
Speaker 2: three sixty nine. In Connecticut, help is available for problem

371
00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:51,800
Speaker 2: gambling called eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven

372
00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:56,359
Speaker 2: seven to seven, or visit CCPG dot org. Please play

373
00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:59,760
Speaker 2: responsibly on behalf of boot Hill Casino and Resort in

374
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:04,720
Speaker 2: Camps twenty one plus. Age varies by jurisdiction, Void and Ontario.

375
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:09,800
Speaker 2: Bonus bets expire one hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance.

376
00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:15,320
Speaker 2: See dkg dot com slash football for eligibility and deposit restrictions,

377
00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:20,880
Speaker 2: terms and responsible gaming resources. Using that strategy I'm looking at,

378
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:23,120
Speaker 2: I guess you would think, Okay, it's time to fade

379
00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:25,880
Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey, and it's time to fade Kelsey. So here's

380
00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:30,960
Speaker 2: an interesting one. Christian McCaffrey's receiving yards. Somebody told me,

381
00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:33,040
Speaker 2: oh oh, I love McCaffrey receiving yards. It was a

382
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:34,520
Speaker 2: thirty two and a half. I see it now thirty

383
00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:35,120
Speaker 2: five and a half.

384
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:39,639
Speaker 1: I'm just wait, way do you do it? Yep? You

385
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:41,240
Speaker 1: bet overs early about unders late.

386
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:45,800
Speaker 2: So Christian McCaffrey against the Packers seven catches for thirty yards,

387
00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:47,959
Speaker 2: four for forty two against the Lions. You look up

388
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:49,919
Speaker 2: it down. Sure he's had a couple over thirty, but

389
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:54,320
Speaker 2: it looks like the majority of them twenty five, twenty seven, nine,

390
00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:57,720
Speaker 2: twenty seven. So you're like an under for McCaffrey. But

391
00:19:57,760 --> 00:19:59,800
Speaker 2: that's not exciting. Look, oh, I don't want McCaffrey to

392
00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:04,440
Speaker 2: get yards other than McCaffrey and Kelsey. Does that apply

393
00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:07,040
Speaker 2: to Rashid Riis Deboth, Samuel Ayuk or no.

394
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:10,840
Speaker 1: If you see if you see a number, go like

395
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 1: ten yards up. Like let's say a guy goes from

396
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 1: fifty eight and a half to sixty eight and a half.

397
00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:16,360
Speaker 1: I can guarantee that under sixty eight and a half

398
00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:18,600
Speaker 1: is gonna be good. So just just look at the

399
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,360
Speaker 1: movement if you're tracking that, and there aren't a lot

400
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,200
Speaker 1: of I don't think there's an easy way to track

401
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:26,480
Speaker 1: provodst everywhere, but if you take a look at it

402
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:32,080
Speaker 1: where lines are moving especially, and this does not apply

403
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:35,439
Speaker 1: to think like, this does not apply to betting overs.

404
00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:37,960
Speaker 1: If you see somebody, if you see a number for

405
00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 1: someone go down from thirty two and a half down

406
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:41,720
Speaker 1: to twenty five and a half, it probably is a

407
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,800
Speaker 1: mispriced line, Okay, but if you see go up from

408
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:47,719
Speaker 1: twenty five and a half to thirty two and a half,

409
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 1: I would say the under thirty two and a half

410
00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 1: is probably good value with the caveat that unless that

411
00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:56,160
Speaker 1: line move was right when when the openers came out.

412
00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:58,960
Speaker 1: So I'm we're talking about the line movement you see

413
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:03,159
Speaker 1: this week end, because let's face it, who's betting, Like,

414
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,879
Speaker 1: what recreational better is betting on the Super Bowl? You know,

415
00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:11,120
Speaker 1: ten days before it starts. No, that's not happening. That's

416
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:14,760
Speaker 1: the The action then is people like sharp betters are

417
00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:18,560
Speaker 1: people who think they're sharp and and so those line

418
00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:19,879
Speaker 1: movements are going to tend to be a little bit

419
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:24,159
Speaker 1: more more predictive. But the line movement live movement you

420
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 1: see Sunday morning Saturday night, like things can take on

421
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 1: a life of their own.

422
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 2: Okay, So this is good actionable info. However, I'm sure

423
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:36,400
Speaker 2: there's people out there listening who is saying, well, where

424
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,040
Speaker 2: can I track where McCaffrey opened that for rushing yards,

425
00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:40,320
Speaker 2: So it is nobody tracked.

426
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:41,960
Speaker 1: I don't care where. I don't care where he opened.

427
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:44,240
Speaker 1: I care about where it's going, like on the weekend

428
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:46,199
Speaker 1: of like, that's what that's what you should take a

429
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 1: look at, right.

430
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 2: But I'm saying, like, let's say he opened rushing Yards

431
00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:51,879
Speaker 2: I don't know eighty five, and now you go this

432
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:55,680
Speaker 2: weekend and it's ninety seven. You're saying you definitely want

433
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:57,800
Speaker 2: the end you want to try to time the market.

434
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 2: Is that fair to say? Or no? Are you?

435
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,760
Speaker 1: I mean, for us, it's it's a it's yes, uh,

436
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 1: but it's difficult given the fact that we're also trying

437
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:09,479
Speaker 1: to bet a lot of money. We're trying to have

438
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:12,240
Speaker 1: over two million dollars in action, and so it takes time.

439
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:14,400
Speaker 1: It takes a lot of pressing of buttons and going

440
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:16,919
Speaker 1: into casino counters to do that. And so if we

441
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:18,919
Speaker 1: just said okay, let's pull the trigger now it's now

442
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:20,760
Speaker 1: before game time, we're not gonna be able to get

443
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:23,879
Speaker 1: enough down and so we're gonna be betting all weekend. Wow.

444
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:27,159
Speaker 1: And and we're also these aren't you know all our

445
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:29,360
Speaker 1: bets are not fading of the public. There's a lot

446
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:32,480
Speaker 1: of other things. We're gonna betting a lot of not

447
00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:34,880
Speaker 1: sexy bets. To be honest, like we'll have bet give

448
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 1: not sex player X to not score two touchdowns playing

449
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:45,480
Speaker 1: like minus eight hundred, Right, So you know that's that's

450
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 1: not a that's not a fun bet, but there can

451
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:50,440
Speaker 1: be some value on that, and you have to type

452
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 1: a lot of money there. But you know that those

453
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 1: are the types of bets where if we have we

454
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 1: kind of wait and if we have some leftover money

455
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 1: that we aren't able to get down on other things

456
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 1: or we don't see enough value on other things, we

457
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 1: can always pour it into those.

458
00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 2: Okay, So I would say ninety nine point nine percent

459
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 2: of this audience is not trying to get down one

460
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,879
Speaker 2: to two million dollars. How can you just you know,

461
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 2: you don't have to be specific, but like vagaries, you

462
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 2: have just ten people in your group with backpacks, five

463
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:19,960
Speaker 2: others sitting at computers. How does that even work?

464
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 1: They'll be let's see one two, There'll be five of us.

465
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 1: One of us will not be in Vegas, the rest

466
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 1: will be in Vegas. It's it's a logistical operation. Will

467
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 1: be you know, one guy is going to have the

468
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:36,439
Speaker 1: South Point in stations and hitting those casinos most likely.

469
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 1: You know another person will be doing stuff on the strip.

470
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 1: I'll be at my condo, hitting apps and maybe going

471
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 1: to like Westgate. You know, it's honestly like at some

472
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:52,880
Speaker 1: point one of us will run to Arizona to get

473
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:54,880
Speaker 1: down on some of the places we can't in Vegas.

474
00:23:56,040 --> 00:24:00,119
Speaker 1: That's interesting, it's it's it's it's a logistical nightmare, to

475
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 1: be honest, but it's it's fun.

476
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 2: And I'm assuming these are guys you've worked with for many,

477
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 2: many years. It's not like you're yeah, yet, Wow, that's exciting.

478
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 1: So if you want to go ahead, if you want

479
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 1: actionable info, though, I would say props that you should

480
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 1: target the arecreational. Better should target, I would say, are

481
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 1: ones that are not offered by the sports book every

482
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 1: single week, so they don't have as much to go

483
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:25,280
Speaker 1: off of, they don't have as much experience pricing them.

484
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 1: They're not they don't have this huge advantage. And I think, oh,

485
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 1: you have to remember with a lot of this stuff,

486
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 1: like they're pricing so many props, they're not going that

487
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 1: in depth on each of them. If you go in

488
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,920
Speaker 1: depth on something and notice some tendency and a particular team,

489
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 1: you can find some value there. So for example, there's

490
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 1: a bet, there's a bet on whether a team will

491
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 1: come back from a double digit deficit to win the game,

492
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,639
Speaker 1: and that's going to be priced based off of the

493
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 1: spread in the total. But I think a good argument

494
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:59,640
Speaker 1: could be made that Patrick Mahomes is much more likely

495
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 1: in the ifs are much more likely to come back

496
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,400
Speaker 1: from a double digit deficit to win than your typical

497
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 1: two point underdog with the total of forty seven and

498
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 1: a half. So if you can find sort of exceptions

499
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 1: to rules, that's another area that you can find some value.

500
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 2: For instance, I know you guys are hammering away at

501
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 2: certain bets. If a random guy is firing, I don't

502
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 2: know a grand on longest field goal. That obviously doesn't

503
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 2: set off any red flag super Bowl week, but it

504
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 2: might be week fourteen, right.

505
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 1: Right, right, Actually, this is a great week. It's a

506
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 1: week where props do not look like sharp action necessarily

507
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 1: at all. In fact, props have become They went from

508
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 1: something that you really didn't want to bet a lot

509
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 1: of because it flags your account and you could get

510
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 1: limited more easily to especially for the Super Bowl, like

511
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:50,439
Speaker 1: what everybody's betting.

512
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've had some success the last two off seasons

513
00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 2: with alternate win totals, but I haven't I haven't looked

514
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:02,480
Speaker 2: at alternate like lines. Do you you said at the

515
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 2: very outset, Yeah, maybe one of the teams blows the

516
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 2: other one out, like I think the Chiefs have maybe

517
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,440
Speaker 2: four losses by eight points in the last like four

518
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 2: years combined, some insane number. Is an alt line anything

519
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 2: you'd look at here where one team runs away and hides.

520
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:20,959
Speaker 1: So, first off my side, Jason unovated Sports, Yes, has

521
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 1: has a tool that give that lets you price all

522
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:26,199
Speaker 1: lines based off of what the spread is. So if

523
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 1: you believe there, but if you believe there's some exception

524
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 1: that that the distribution is going to be different in

525
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 1: this game based on these particular teams, this that's not

526
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 1: going to give you that, but this will at least

527
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 1: give you a starting point with with how the math

528
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 1: should price it. So you know, I do look at

529
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 1: all lines. I I personally don't go into the sort

530
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,119
Speaker 1: of narratives of thinking like, oh, this team is going

531
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 1: to this, this game is somehow going to be different.

532
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 1: But you know, I rely on the math there are

533
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:55,399
Speaker 1: there isn't usually much value on that stuff. I've found

534
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 1: some value in different years on alternate totals, like specifically

535
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:03,639
Speaker 1: mostly unders like under thirty two and a half points

536
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:05,920
Speaker 1: for the game or something like that. I haven't looked

537
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:09,719
Speaker 1: at that this year. But you know, people don't think

538
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:11,399
Speaker 1: you're gonna have a thirteen to three super Bowl. It

539
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:12,399
Speaker 1: doesn't happen very often.

540
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just such an outlier. Nobody could possibly predict it.

541
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 2: What about this is MVP? Does that ever get on

542
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,400
Speaker 2: you guys radar? You just don't give it. It doesn't matter.

543
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, no' we've bet that. I remember we had Damian Williams.

544
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:28,160
Speaker 1: Actually this was the last, the last Chiefs Niners super Bowl,

545
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:30,920
Speaker 1: which was what three year four years ago? Yeah, four

546
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:33,359
Speaker 1: or three, I don't remember. Was this This is the

547
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:34,880
Speaker 1: last one before the pandemic, right.

548
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 2: Right, it was like a month before it happened.

549
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:38,719
Speaker 1: Oh, I remember we had the Limo pick us up

550
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 1: after the super Bowl party. It was Yeah, it was

551
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 1: a fun time. But we had Damian Williams and I

552
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:48,199
Speaker 1: thought he should have won it there, right, he had

553
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,480
Speaker 1: that long touchdown run. Yeah, he had two touchdowns and

554
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 1: a long touchdown run one hundred and rushing yards. But

555
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 1: Mahomes won it. I don't think a running back has

556
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 1: won it in Terrell Davis. Yes, it's been I feel

557
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:03,959
Speaker 1: like it was someone in the two thousands, but like

558
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 1: it's been a while.

559
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 2: M so you know anything on MVY, I mean, do

560
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 2: you go? It's super exotic and try like George carr

561
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:15,240
Speaker 2: laftis three three sacks, He's gonna win MVP, like any

562
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 2: chance of that, you know.

563
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,439
Speaker 1: I haven't done that. I haven't bet any MVP tickets

564
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:21,399
Speaker 1: yet this year, but it is interesting to kind of

565
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 1: come up with narratives and stories where you could see

566
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 1: some one of these things happening. But one thing that

567
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 1: I didn't really know beforehand that I've since learned is

568
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:30,880
Speaker 1: that a lot of the MVP voting does not take

569
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:35,679
Speaker 1: place after the game, like people put in their things before,

570
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 1: like before the game's over on occasion, so or I

571
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 1: was told this, So Damian Williams getting that like touchdown

572
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 1: to put the game away isn't actually.

573
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 2: Like didn't matter, right, and so oh man.

574
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 1: But there are every once in a while guys that

575
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 1: win it that you know from odd positions, like Dexter

576
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 1: was it Dexter Jackson for the Buff's right, Yeah, Raiders

577
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 1: super Bowl?

578
00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 2: Good call? Yeah, I forgot about that. He was like

579
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 2: a cornerback or safety for the Bucks. Yeah, Malcolm what's

580
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 2: his face from the Seahawks.

581
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, Malcolm Butler.

582
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 2: But Butler, No no, wait was it Butler? I thought

583
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 2: it was a linebacker Malcolm Oh oh yes, sorry against

584
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 2: the Broncos.

585
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, yeah. But I mean, but so often it's

586
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 1: the quarterback. I mean, think about think about the Patriots

587
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 1: Falcon super Bowl. James White had a gazillion, like, had

588
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 1: a huge game. I think we had some James White

589
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 1: tickets to win the m v P. And of course

590
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 1: Brady gets it. Yeah, but I think part of it

591
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 1: is name recognition. I think it's going to be a

592
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 1: lot harder for another player to get it. If over Mahomes,

593
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 1: if if the Chiefs win, but or over Brady. You know,

594
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 1: when Brady was playing with Purty, that's not the case. Yes, ye,

595
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 1: maybe that's that's the angle. I like, I'm not I'm

596
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 1: right now. I'm not talking as someone that knows what

597
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 1: they're talking about quantitatively. Year this is just this is

598
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 1: just me bullshitting.

599
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 2: But everybody's discounting party because he's the last pick in

600
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 2: the draft. He's not good. He's a he's basically Budge,

601
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,800
Speaker 2: a bus driver for all these superstars. And I'm just

602
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 2: telling you. The media sees him that way, they're not

603
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 2: going to vote him MVP. Honestly, he could have retuched

604
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 2: down past the three hundred yards.

605
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 1: No, I think I think. I think he's still the quarterback.

606
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 1: If he's the quarterback of the Super Bowl champs and

607
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 1: he has a good game, he probably wins it. But

608
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 1: if if someone has a better game, then I think

609
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 1: they could win it. Versus with the Chiefs, if someone

610
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 1: has a better game than Mahomes, Mahomes probably still wins it.

611
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 1: It's got to be. It has to be like think

612
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 1: of this as like a replay review, right, like, like

613
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 1: what's the burden of proof? How much better does somebody

614
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 1: have to be than Mahomes for Mahomes to not win it? Okay,

615
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 1: that is a huge amount. So whereas with Party, it's

616
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 1: got to be you know, it's like, oh, someone was

617
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 1: a little better than Party, they might win it.

618
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 2: So you mentioned in the Rams thirteen three Super Bowl.

619
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:03,960
Speaker 2: Do you know who the MVP was in that game?

620
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 2: Ooh yeah, I had to look it up. So Julian

621
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 2: Edelman ten for one forty one didn't even have a touchdown.

622
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 1: Julian Edelman, he he was MVP yeah, what was brady'stat line?

623
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 2: I'm not seeing it here, but that's one of the

624
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 2: weaker and the and I work with Edelman. I'm not

625
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 2: knocking him, but I'm just saying, like ten for one

626
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 2: forty one no touchdowns, really I could see.

627
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 1: That's why I mean ten is a huge game. You're

628
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 1: just saying because I mean, because he didn't score a touchdown,

629
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 1: the team only scored one touchdown.

630
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was yeah, right right, So.

631
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:38,960
Speaker 1: I mean there there weren't a lot of touchdowns to

632
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 1: go around. It wasn't like and and who had that touchdown?

633
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 1: I'm guessing Brady. It wasn't Brady was a runner Michelle Sony.

634
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,240
Speaker 1: Michelle won eighteen carries ninety four yards in a touchdown,

635
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 1: Brady twenty one for thirty five, two hundred and sixty two,

636
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 1: no touchdowns, one interception. So I mean it's like that.

637
00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 1: I don't think you can get Yeah, the last no

638
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 1: time sounds in a pick. You can't get MVP. I'm sorry.

639
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, the last offensive MVP who did not score a

640
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 2: touchdown before Edelman was of Dion Branch of the Patriots eleven.

641
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 1: So like this was and this was before Brady was

642
00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 1: Brady right before he this is back before he was

643
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 1: a superstar, when he was like more of the game manager.

644
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 2: He had won two MVPs of the Super Bowl. He

645
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 2: had one with one hundred and forty five yards passing. Wow,

646
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 2: but low scoring super Bowls. I just I wonder if

647
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 2: a defensive player could deal it like Chris Jones car

648
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 2: laftis is like sixteen thousand to one or something plus

649
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 2: sixteen thousand, insane number.

650
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 1: I'll take anything. It's sixteen thousand on. I'll take the

651
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 1: sun not rising tomorrow at sixty I mean honestly, although no,

652
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 1: but if it wins, actually I won't because if it wins,

653
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 1: then we're all.

654
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 2: We're all dead. Yes, yes, wow, very macab turned there.

655
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:50,720
Speaker 2: So I don't know what about like safety, Is there

656
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:53,480
Speaker 2: anything there for you or like five or more field

657
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 2: goals made? Is I don't know, just something the audience

658
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 2: can piggyback on and feel like we're all into together.

659
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 1: Don't bet on the safety. In general, the big, the big,

660
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 1: the big plus money things, the lottery ticket type things

661
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 1: not gonna be great value. The multi way markets typically

662
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 1: are not great value. But just because there is there's

663
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: so much over round and that that includes the MVP market.

664
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 1: But you see some props that are like, what's the

665
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 1: margin of victory? You know, chiefs one to three, chiefs

666
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 1: four to seven, you know things like that. Yeah, stay

667
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 1: away completely. You're better off if you want to bet

668
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 1: on something like that. If you if you're like, oh,

669
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 1: I think the Chiefs are gonna win by a lot,

670
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 1: find an alternate point spread. Don't go for one of

671
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 1: these little categories because they just take so much juice

672
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 1: out and and whereas the super MVPs are harder market

673
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 1: to price. And I think, you know, you could make

674
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 1: an argument that a certain narrative isn't being priced properly

675
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 1: like pricing just the distribution of points scored in a game?

676
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 1: Is not that not that difficult?

677
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 2: There was one other one besides the safety, I for, oh,

678
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 2: will there be overtime? Is that asinine? There was almost

679
00:33:59,000 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 2: overtime last year?

680
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 1: There was? Yeah, there was with the first overtime ever

681
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 1: was the Patriots Falcons. Right, yeah, for Super Bowl there

682
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 1: was over.

683
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 2: I guess you had that.

684
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:09,399
Speaker 1: No, oh wow, did not.

685
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 2: Rarely lift by you on that one?

686
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 1: No, I mean we bet the no safety every year

687
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:19,719
Speaker 1: And there was a four year period where there were

688
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,280
Speaker 1: three safeties, and two of them were the first score,

689
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 1: and at that point, like like we have, we had

690
00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 1: bets on like first score to be touchdown rather than

691
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 1: field goal, and weren't even really considering the possibility of

692
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 1: safety because the safety for the first score of a

693
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 1: game happens in like zero point one or zero point

694
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 1: two percent of games or something insanely small. Do you

695
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,920
Speaker 1: remember those games? By the way, I I vividly remember

696
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:48,160
Speaker 1: both of those safeties.

697
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:49,879
Speaker 2: Was one over the snap over Peyton's head.

698
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:57,399
Speaker 1: Yep, okay, one was maybe maybe the least well. I've

699
00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 1: never seen an intentional grounding called on a ball throwing

700
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:04,839
Speaker 1: forty yards down the middle of the fields. Wow, Brady,

701
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:06,919
Speaker 1: intentional grounding against who?

702
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:07,560
Speaker 2: The Giants?

703
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:11,279
Speaker 1: It would have been against the Giants, wouldn't it.

704
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:13,759
Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't remember that one. But then again,

705
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:15,480
Speaker 2: when I was in my twenties, I was like, you know,

706
00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 2: actually partying at Super Bowls and not like not like gambling.

707
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:22,279
Speaker 2: I mean, you couldn't unless you lived in Vegas. It

708
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 2: was no like online gambling in like, you know, two

709
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:25,799
Speaker 2: thousand and five.

710
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 1: Oh, there was plenty of online gambling offshore, but it

711
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:30,439
Speaker 1: wasn't as well known.

712
00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:33,879
Speaker 2: Oh so that's how long you've been doing the offshore action.

713
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 1: No, not me, I mean i've in two thousand and five.

714
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 1: I was what a freshman in college?

715
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 2: So team yeah, yeah, yeah, all right, well this is

716
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 2: good stuff as usual, rufus. Good luck with the bets

717
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:46,360
Speaker 2: and you know the two million dollars you guys have

718
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 2: in play. But by the way, you also open by saying,

719
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 2: you know, football is not you just you're kind of

720
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 2: out on it gambling. What are your top three? I

721
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:56,400
Speaker 2: know golf is one of them, and sounds like college

722
00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 2: hoops is another.

723
00:35:57,719 --> 00:35:59,880
Speaker 1: We'll have more bet on college basketball on Saturday than

724
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 1: on the Super Bowl. No way, yeah, really really, Now.

725
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:07,919
Speaker 2: Are you doing those obscure games like Maryland Eastern Shore

726
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 2: and crap like that.

727
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:11,919
Speaker 1: We're doing all of them. We're doing the big ones,

728
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 1: the small ones. There's just so many freaking games. I

729
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 1: know there's one hundred and fifty college basketball games to

730
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:18,480
Speaker 1: bet on on a Saturday.

731
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:21,279
Speaker 2: I know you and Jeff have had like a back

732
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:23,360
Speaker 2: and forth for a year. I haven't listened to the confession.

733
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:25,319
Speaker 2: I haven't listened to the pod lately, but I know.

734
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:26,839
Speaker 1: I don't listen about I don't listen to it either.

735
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:28,959
Speaker 2: So I know you guys had a back and forth

736
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:32,319
Speaker 2: about guys who sell picks and blah blah blah, and

737
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:34,640
Speaker 2: Adam Turnoffs come on the pod before and I like

738
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:36,319
Speaker 2: him and you know he does the all right angle

739
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:40,360
Speaker 2: sports stuff. Have you thought about posting your college hoops

740
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:42,760
Speaker 2: picks anywhere for people or do they move south instantly?

741
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:46,320
Speaker 1: I'm you know, I have a lot of respect for people.

742
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:48,840
Speaker 1: Some people like like Adam Sure and often write Angle sports,

743
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 1: and I understand their decision to sell picks. It's not

744
00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 1: personally decision I agree with, and it's not it's not

745
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 1: an avenue that I would It's not something I would do.

746
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:01,720
Speaker 1: But you know, to each their on right, that's it's

747
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:06,480
Speaker 1: completely their their choice. And ye for me I can

748
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 1: make I think I can make a lot more betting

749
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:10,800
Speaker 1: those picks than I can sell in right.

750
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 2: Because as soon as you lay the lumber on, you know,

751
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 2: DePaul plus twenty, it's going to move to plus at

752
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:17,840
Speaker 2: eighteen or whatever, right.

753
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 1: Right, And then you also put that information out in

754
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:25,360
Speaker 1: the market, what you're on. And but it's it's just

755
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 1: not a route I want to go down. That's all

756
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:28,880
Speaker 1: personal decision.

757
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:32,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm the idiot. I've had a good run on

758
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:34,799
Speaker 2: college hoops. I do not have anything like you, but

759
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:36,719
Speaker 2: I just post them on Instagram stories and I keep

760
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,880
Speaker 2: hearing from people. You know, it's it's had. It's been

761
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:42,719
Speaker 2: a good you know, eight nine week run. But you're

762
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:45,359
Speaker 2: doing it, Like are you doing every night? Oh?

763
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's a grind. I mean, it's it's not

764
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 1: just me, it's in fact, I'm I'm the one in

765
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:54,080
Speaker 1: our group that's doing the least on it. I'm they're

766
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 1: having to go through injuries for every single game, every

767
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:59,320
Speaker 1: single day. I mean, I see, we have this interface

768
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:01,960
Speaker 1: here with all our games and our numbers and what

769
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 1: the spread is and basically what our true price is

770
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:06,719
Speaker 1: after factory and the market number. And you know, I

771
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 1: see like u U Oklahoma, we have a flag here

772
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 1: saying b Yu missing starting center. He's a plus defensive player,

773
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 1: like Kansas State missing or you know, Kent State, Western Michigan,

774
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:21,320
Speaker 1: Kent State's missing bench production. Western Michigan is missing a

775
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 1: significant contributor starting and a starting point guard, and they

776
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:29,440
Speaker 1: played slower without without the starting point guard. So like

777
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 1: there's there's all like there's the quantitative stuff and then

778
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 1: there's this qualitative stuff on top of it too, to

779
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:36,799
Speaker 1: put our numbers in perspective and realize where we might

780
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 1: be a little bit off. And so that takes a

781
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:41,880
Speaker 1: lot of time, especially on a college basketball slate on

782
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:44,239
Speaker 1: Saturday where you have one hundred and fifty games. You know,

783
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:46,879
Speaker 1: that's a lot of that's done Friday night. But then

784
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 1: it takes literally all day trading to get down on

785
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 1: all these like we go with through betting partners and

786
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:56,279
Speaker 1: things like that. It's, you know, it's an ordeal. So

787
00:38:57,160 --> 00:38:59,880
Speaker 1: it's it's it's definitely been worth it, but it's a

788
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:01,440
Speaker 1: think we're all going to be a little bit relieved

789
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 1: when the season's over.

790
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's how I feel about the NFL. But but

791
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:06,360
Speaker 2: I got asked these guys who were getting all this

792
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:10,279
Speaker 2: stuff on BYU Oklahoma, I mean, what kind of life

793
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 2: do they have? Are they like twenty one year old kids?

794
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 2: Like you can't be like a grown up with a

795
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:17,360
Speaker 2: family and grinding in that depth on BYU Oklahoma.

796
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 1: Oh, I mean you can, if it's your job, you can.

797
00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 2: Oh, so these guys don't have jobs, they're full time.

798
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:27,719
Speaker 1: Oh what do you mean these guys your group? Oh? Yeah, no,

799
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 1: we're all full time betting. No.

800
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 2: I guess at that point you got to it got

801
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 2: to right, I mean, I mean, don't have a job.

802
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 2: Don't go into an office, don't you just.

803
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 1: This is our job. We have off you know, we

804
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 1: have offices, but you're working spaces and stuff like that.

805
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:49,880
Speaker 2: No, I mean like, oh, like a we work spot

806
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:50,320
Speaker 2: or something.

807
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:54,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, things like that. Huh nice. This is this is

808
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 1: not a hobby. This is not a hobby for us.

809
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:58,200
Speaker 2: No, not for you. I didn't know you had a

810
00:39:58,239 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 2: group of guys who were wed like you.

811
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 1: I mean it takes. I mean I can't do this

812
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:05,279
Speaker 1: all on my own. It takes. It takes a village, right,

813
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:07,920
Speaker 1: I mean to run this this operation, it's a lot

814
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 1: of logistics, it's a lot of I mean, like my partner,

815
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 1: who actually is more responsible, Like he's he's he's the

816
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 1: one that built the college basketball framework that we use.

817
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 1: I've you know, I'm a minor contributor there in terms

818
00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:24,359
Speaker 1: of helping build the projections. But it's his. I feel

819
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:27,320
Speaker 1: like it's his baby, and he's you know, he was

820
00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 1: a developer for Microsoft for eleven years. He's got his

821
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:32,759
Speaker 1: skills are incredible, Like his skill set is incredible, and

822
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 1: it's so it's perfectly complementary to mine because he's not

823
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 1: a stats background and I'm not a development background, but

824
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:41,719
Speaker 1: those kind of skills work so well together. And then

825
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:43,880
Speaker 1: we have then we have we have to trade the

826
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 1: stuff too, and so like we have to manage relationships

827
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:49,720
Speaker 1: with a bunch of different betting partners. And my brother

828
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 1: is runs that and basically keeps the train running every

829
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 1: day on all that stuff and so like, and then

830
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:57,400
Speaker 1: I mean, at the end of we have to do

831
00:40:57,440 --> 00:41:01,480
Speaker 1: figures for about like that feels like a gazillion different

832
00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:04,239
Speaker 1: accounts and people we have to settle up with each week.

833
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:07,399
Speaker 1: And it's it's a it's a massive operation. I mean

834
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 1: a massive amount of work. I should say.

835
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, so it sounds I mean, it sounds kind of fun,

836
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 2: but it's a ton of work, you know. I mean

837
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 2: maybe if you're at the tip top, it's not it's

838
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 2: not the worst thing in the world.

839
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 1: And there are no days and there aren't days off

840
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 1: either during college basketball season, like it's if someone wants

841
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:28,080
Speaker 1: to take like a Friday afternoon off, like it's you know,

842
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:30,799
Speaker 1: more work falls on the other you know, falls on

843
00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 1: the rest of us, or you know, and occasionally that

844
00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:37,480
Speaker 1: does happen. I mean, everybody needs some breaks, but we

845
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:38,520
Speaker 1: don't really get a lot of them.

846
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 2: Oh man, you know what about like having a family

847
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 2: and kids and all that stuff. It's just that's that's

848
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:44,879
Speaker 2: a tall order.

849
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 1: Well, my brother and I are the only ones in

850
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:48,920
Speaker 1: our you know, in our operation that are not married.

851
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 2: So holy cow, I like this, man. It sounds fun.

852
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:55,719
Speaker 2: If you need an investor who could just put money

853
00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 2: in and not have to do any work, let me know.

854
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 1: I think that the problem. The problem is we were

855
00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 1: up against betting limits, and so it would be it

856
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:06,719
Speaker 1: would be easier if we were trying to bet less money. Yeah,

857
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:09,640
Speaker 1: these are good unfortunately, not looking for investors all right.

858
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:11,719
Speaker 2: Man, Well I'm sure after the football season you'll be

859
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:14,200
Speaker 2: taking a really nice trip private jet to some more

860
00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 2: island that you rented out. It sounds like fun. Man.

861
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:19,360
Speaker 2: Congrats on all your success and thanks for taking the

862
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:21,000
Speaker 2: time during Super Bowl week.

863
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Jason, Thanks as always,