WEBVTT - France Takes Another Hit. Ian Bremmer talks to Armstrong & Getty 0:00:01.560 --> 0:00:03.920 When you're ready to ride Metro, we want you to 0:00:03.960 --> 0:00:06.560 know we're ready for you. Here are just a few 0:00:06.559 --> 0:00:08.399 of the people at Metro to tell you how we're 0:00:08.400 --> 0:00:11.320 doing our part to keep riders safe. We're cleaning like 0:00:11.400 --> 0:00:15.080 Neville before half to the Great Queen. You've found halfs 0:00:15.080 --> 0:00:20.360 out of sounds of stasistro, no masks, no Metro need one. 0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:23.239 We have a few extras at Metro. We're doing our 0:00:23.280 --> 0:00:25.920 part to keep the DC area moving. Find out more 0:00:25.920 --> 0:00:47.280 at well mata dot com slash doing our part. That 0:00:47.320 --> 0:00:50.159 made a lot of rounds. That's went viral. People singing 0:00:50.200 --> 0:00:54.120 outside of Notre Dame Cathedral last night in France. Yeah, 0:00:54.200 --> 0:00:57.720 and the terrible fires tragic on a number of different levels. 0:00:57.760 --> 0:01:00.720 It occurs that a really interesting piv a time in 0:01:01.240 --> 0:01:05.319 French history. Uh and Ian Bremer, President, founder of the 0:01:05.319 --> 0:01:09.560 Eurasia Group. Who better to discuss this with the Eurasia Group, 0:01:09.680 --> 0:01:13.080 leading global political risk research and consulting firm on Earth. 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:16.000 Ian welcome, how are you, sir, gentlemen? Good to be 0:01:16.080 --> 0:01:20.200 with you, so listen. We're we're both international relations freaks 0:01:20.240 --> 0:01:23.480 around here. Um and and have been watching France with 0:01:23.600 --> 0:01:27.039 great interest. The Yellow vest movement and the violence and 0:01:27.080 --> 0:01:32.560 the growing Islamic population and the tension there. I've read Submission, right, yeah, 0:01:32.600 --> 0:01:36.000 and and and then Notre Dame Cathedral burns down in 0:01:36.040 --> 0:01:37.759 the midst of a heck of a lot of unrest. 0:01:38.400 --> 0:01:40.000 How does that fit in? Do you think it will 0:01:40.040 --> 0:01:43.720 have effects? I've read Submission as well. First of all, 0:01:43.720 --> 0:01:45.680 that's a that's a great intro, right, because I think 0:01:45.680 --> 0:01:47.880 we should probably let the audience know about it. Um 0:01:48.320 --> 0:01:52.480 was number one book in France fiction a few years ago, 0:01:52.960 --> 0:01:55.520 and it was about what would happen if France became 0:01:55.560 --> 0:02:02.400 this dystopian government controlled by Islamic radicals. And I found 0:02:02.400 --> 0:02:06.520 the book remarkably subtle in its predictions to it's it's 0:02:07.240 --> 0:02:11.040 it's very matter of fact. Um. But anyway, how does 0:02:11.080 --> 0:02:14.320 that factor in the factors in? Because France is having 0:02:14.360 --> 0:02:17.200 a terrible time of it, even the context of Europe, 0:02:17.240 --> 0:02:20.120 which is not experiencing a lot of economic growth and 0:02:20.120 --> 0:02:23.880 has had all of this populism nationalism, it's been worse 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:27.359 in France. I mean, you remember that Charlie at Bow killings. 0:02:27.440 --> 0:02:32.160 There's been a lot of terrorist violence since November. Every 0:02:32.200 --> 0:02:36.560 weekend you've had these yellow vest movements on the streets 0:02:36.600 --> 0:02:39.120 in Paris and in other cities, and a lot of violence. 0:02:39.160 --> 0:02:41.000 And you know, I mean, I wish you could say 0:02:41.040 --> 0:02:43.440 that yesterday was the only time we saw Paris and flames, 0:02:43.480 --> 0:02:46.040 but you know, the shops douse A a few weeks 0:02:46.040 --> 0:02:48.880 ago was in flames, and I mean, you know, massive 0:02:48.880 --> 0:02:52.280 amounts of damage being done, and tourism into France has 0:02:52.360 --> 0:02:55.359 taken enormous hit. It's certain the economy. So this has 0:02:55.400 --> 0:02:59.240 been a really challenging time and the President Marcan at 0:02:59.320 --> 0:03:04.400 his approval getings pushed down into the low twenties UM 0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:07.520 as a consequence of it. UM. And and then on 0:03:07.639 --> 0:03:11.680 top of that, yesterday you see, you know, Frances I 0:03:11.720 --> 0:03:14.240 mean most certainly, I mean that the Eiffel Tower, I mean, 0:03:14.280 --> 0:03:19.280 the most recognizable UM monuments in the country, critical to 0:03:19.360 --> 0:03:23.680 national identity and uh and you see the spire coming down. 0:03:23.720 --> 0:03:28.160 So I mean, obviously the collective gut punch to this 0:03:28.320 --> 0:03:34.400 nation was extraordinary. Um. And yet there's actually a real 0:03:34.440 --> 0:03:38.880 surver lining here. Well I want to hear that well, 0:03:38.880 --> 0:03:42.920 which is that it gives him a kron An opportunity 0:03:43.320 --> 0:03:46.960 to be a leader again, to bring the country together again. 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:49.960 I mean, it's this is not nine eleven for France obviously, 0:03:49.960 --> 0:03:53.760 and thank god for that. But still it's something where 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:58.080 the people for a moment feel unified. This is something 0:03:58.120 --> 0:04:01.320 that they together are all going to rebuilding. Macran from 0:04:01.440 --> 0:04:05.600 lead that moment and inspiring speech children because thank god 0:04:05.600 --> 0:04:08.560 it was an accident. Um, then everybody can get behind 0:04:09.240 --> 0:04:12.280 that side and nobody died. And by the way, the 0:04:12.360 --> 0:04:15.680 thing is still standing, so I mean they can actually 0:04:15.720 --> 0:04:18.640 rebuilt it. It's not getting raised to the ground. And 0:04:18.800 --> 0:04:21.920 this weekend, I mean, the funny thing is yesterday Macron. 0:04:22.640 --> 0:04:24.320 I don't know if you guys were following this, but 0:04:24.400 --> 0:04:27.080 Macon is for the last two months been doing this 0:04:27.240 --> 0:04:31.320 grand listening tour where he's literally gone from town to 0:04:31.320 --> 0:04:34.279 town to town and spent hours upon hours at a 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:40.719 time listening um to the complaints of mostly older French 0:04:40.760 --> 0:04:45.320 citizens but a pretty wide demographic um swath. And then 0:04:45.400 --> 0:04:48.560 he's been responding and he was about to give his 0:04:48.640 --> 0:04:52.839 big speech where he was going to outline where, where, 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:54.320 what he was going to do, how the country was 0:04:54.320 --> 0:04:57.960 going to move forward, and the yellow vests had already 0:04:58.000 --> 0:04:59.640 before even hearing what he was going to say, had 0:04:59.640 --> 0:05:02.120 already rejected and they were going to have bigger demonstrations 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:06.679 this weekend. Well, now obviously he canceled that speech, and 0:05:07.040 --> 0:05:10.560 either the Yellow Vests are going to they should cancel 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:15.120 their demonstrations um, in which case there's some time form 0:05:15.160 --> 0:05:18.400 a crown to actually build some momentum for something constructive 0:05:18.400 --> 0:05:20.279 in the country, because I mean, he's the one with 0:05:20.360 --> 0:05:22.799 a with a positive agenda, whether it's you know, whether 0:05:22.839 --> 0:05:26.800 it's popular or not. The Yellow Vests are just reacting 0:05:26.839 --> 0:05:30.919 and negative and tearing things down, or they decide to 0:05:30.960 --> 0:05:34.080 continue with their demonstrations this weekend and they will lose 0:05:34.120 --> 0:05:38.200 a tremendous amount of support. So I mean, either way, frankly, 0:05:38.720 --> 0:05:41.040 this could end up being the kick in the pants 0:05:41.760 --> 0:05:44.479 that the French people and the French president really need. 0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:47.520 Ian Bremer, president and founder of Eurisia group on the line, 0:05:47.560 --> 0:05:49.480 tell us a little more about the Yellow Vest movement. 0:05:49.520 --> 0:05:51.560 I've heard you say that they're not in favor of anything, 0:05:51.600 --> 0:05:54.680 they're just kind of generalized complaining. But do they have 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:58.440 an animating cause of particular issue. I was going to 0:05:58.480 --> 0:06:01.039 ask if you could put the France is whatever they 0:06:01.080 --> 0:06:02.839 got going on right now in any context that we 0:06:02.920 --> 0:06:06.200 understand in America, it's like the conservatives and liberals or 0:06:06.360 --> 0:06:09.919 legal immigration are just some contexts we get. Yeah, I 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:12.839 can if you remember back when we had the old 0:06:12.960 --> 0:06:17.080 w t O meetings in Seattle and there were these 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:22.440 massive anti globalization protesters that remember they were, you know, 0:06:22.440 --> 0:06:25.920 sort of destroying Starbucks servings like that, right, But I mean, 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:29.719 so it was this big group of angry, mostly young people. 0:06:30.160 --> 0:06:34.279 There were save the whales types, there were anti nuclear 0:06:35.080 --> 0:06:39.440 weapons and anti nuclear power types. There were hard committed anarchists. 0:06:39.800 --> 0:06:43.560 There was anti free trade movement. I mean, there were 0:06:43.640 --> 0:06:46.719 a list of grievances as long as your arm um. 0:06:46.880 --> 0:06:50.839 But there was no leadership and there was no agenda 0:06:50.880 --> 0:06:53.240 that they particularly agreed on. And they were from the 0:06:53.279 --> 0:06:55.800 fringes of both the far left, the far right, and 0:06:56.080 --> 0:06:59.719 frankly a bunch of Neilists too. And that's kind of 0:06:59.760 --> 0:07:02.599 what the yellow vest movement is like. They're people that 0:07:02.640 --> 0:07:06.080 are deeply upset at the establishments, such as you can 0:07:06.160 --> 0:07:09.880 define them. Would imagine if you took AOC and Bernie 0:07:09.880 --> 0:07:14.040 Sanders and Donald Trump and then Alex Jones and a 0:07:14.080 --> 0:07:16.440 bunch of others for good measure, and just threw them 0:07:16.440 --> 0:07:20.200 all together and say, let's let's see what we get. Um, 0:07:20.280 --> 0:07:22.120 but one thing they're not going to get is they're 0:07:22.120 --> 0:07:24.640 not going to be very successful in European elections, which 0:07:24.640 --> 0:07:28.440 they're standing for UM in May. And mccron already looked 0:07:28.440 --> 0:07:30.080 like he was probably going to pick up a little 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:32.080 bit as a consequence. Boy, it's interesting. I was reading 0:07:32.080 --> 0:07:35.680 about the French Revolution last night, just coincidentally, uh, in 0:07:35.720 --> 0:07:40.520 a different book, and UM, you know the history around 0:07:40.560 --> 0:07:43.760 the world of people just being angry at what is 0:07:44.160 --> 0:07:46.920 in just angry. I'm gonna tear stuff down and I 0:07:46.960 --> 0:07:49.240 want things to be different, And particularly in France, it's 0:07:49.440 --> 0:07:52.440 there's a little troubling about where it could go. Yeah, 0:07:52.520 --> 0:07:55.240 but the society also has a lot more history and 0:07:55.280 --> 0:07:58.440 a lot more tolerance of significant social demonstrations. I mean, 0:07:58.680 --> 0:08:01.320 you know, anyone that tries to travel by plane to France, 0:08:01.800 --> 0:08:04.840 UM has on several occasions over the last twenty years, 0:08:04.960 --> 0:08:08.840 had to deal with nationwide pilot strikes and and and 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:13.200 workers strikes. Um. You go back to the sixties and 0:08:13.240 --> 0:08:15.680 I mean the the real the violence before it came 0:08:15.720 --> 0:08:18.400 to the US, before it came to the UK. Um, 0:08:18.440 --> 0:08:21.480 it was the Sorbonne. I mean that this this is 0:08:21.520 --> 0:08:26.680 where you had UM, serious grassroots street protests that broke 0:08:26.960 --> 0:08:31.080 into UM broken to riots. UM. And you know, as 0:08:31.080 --> 0:08:33.200 I said, over the course of the past months, I 0:08:33.200 --> 0:08:35.840 mean you, frequently you would see lots of cars being 0:08:35.840 --> 0:08:37.520 set on fire, and the kind of thing that brings 0:08:37.600 --> 0:08:39.560 us back to the la riots in the United States 0:08:40.240 --> 0:08:46.280 not not really considered all that exceptional or unusual. In France. 0:08:46.360 --> 0:08:49.319 It's kind of the way people protests. So I mean 0:08:49.360 --> 0:08:52.559 in that regard, there's a lot of resilience in France. 0:08:52.600 --> 0:08:56.560 There's a lot of institutional capacity to accept things that 0:08:56.600 --> 0:08:59.440 we would consider to be revolutionary and sort of move on. 0:09:00.200 --> 0:09:02.320 If you if I were going to be opening a 0:09:02.400 --> 0:09:05.560 subsidiary in France, and I said to you, Ian Bremer, listen, 0:09:05.800 --> 0:09:09.840 I've heard there's a lot of tension between Muslim immigrants 0:09:09.880 --> 0:09:13.040 and and other French people in the government. What's going 0:09:13.120 --> 0:09:16.079 on there? How would you describe it to me? Um, 0:09:16.120 --> 0:09:19.920 It's certainly true that the anti immigrant sentiment in France 0:09:20.000 --> 0:09:23.280 is very high. Um. About six percent of the population 0:09:23.400 --> 0:09:26.200 is Muslim, which is quite high in the context of 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:30.600 a quot unquote Western society the United States more like one. UM. 0:09:30.640 --> 0:09:33.079 And when you ask the French what the percentage is, 0:09:33.320 --> 0:09:35.880 they respond, it's a herd, and I mean, which is 0:09:35.960 --> 0:09:38.520 traces like where would you keep these people? Right? But 0:09:38.559 --> 0:09:40.440 there is this sense, and this is what came from 0:09:40.480 --> 0:09:43.840 this book submission, Right, there's this sense that the Muslims 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:48.600 are everywhere they lived together, they don't integrate, they don't 0:09:48.640 --> 0:09:51.600 speak proper French, they don't make proper baguets, they don't 0:09:51.679 --> 0:09:54.920 understand French culture, and we don't want them. And they've 0:09:54.960 --> 0:09:59.320 been coming over very large numbers, right. Um. And you know, 0:09:59.400 --> 0:10:02.760 some of this is the response to France's colonial past, 0:10:02.920 --> 0:10:05.680 where they, you know, sort of took over a lot 0:10:05.760 --> 0:10:09.880 of the a decent swath of Africa. Um and uh. 0:10:09.960 --> 0:10:13.040 And now those a lot of those citizens have the 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:15.440 opportunity to come to France and live and work, some 0:10:15.520 --> 0:10:18.520 of them very successfully, a lot of them not very successfully. 0:10:18.720 --> 0:10:22.000 How Uh. Final question is we run out of time? 0:10:22.200 --> 0:10:24.960 How active is the fake news business or the conspiracy 0:10:25.000 --> 0:10:27.800 world there in France? As in, is there a chunk 0:10:27.840 --> 0:10:30.120 of the population that will believe it was Yellow vestors 0:10:30.200 --> 0:10:32.960 no matter what the authorities say, that set a fire 0:10:33.040 --> 0:10:34.760 in the cathedral, or is there a chunk of the 0:10:34.760 --> 0:10:37.560 population that believe the government did it to make Muslims 0:10:37.559 --> 0:10:39.360 look bad? Or whatever, you know, that sort of thing. 0:10:40.080 --> 0:10:42.640 I would say, it's no worse than the United States, 0:10:42.720 --> 0:10:47.319 and that's not a very kind thing to say. Um, yeah, 0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:49.240 I get it. But at the same time, I mean, 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:52.400 most Americans are not predisposed to conspiracy theories. It is 0:10:52.440 --> 0:10:55.800 not like Egypt, it's not like Russia. But I would 0:10:55.880 --> 0:10:58.480 also not India, where they think you get a phone 0:10:58.480 --> 0:11:00.560 call in your testicles are gonna fall off, or whatever 0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:06.640 that rumor was. I think that story un from you 0:11:06.640 --> 0:11:10.600 guys can't take two. I already gave one to capitalism. 0:11:10.600 --> 0:11:14.200 But but um, you know, when when you asked, when 0:11:14.200 --> 0:11:17.600 you ask where the friends are going? Let's also recognize 0:11:17.640 --> 0:11:21.280 the Russians have played a very significant role in disinformation 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:24.440 and funding um of the Yellow Best movement and of 0:11:24.440 --> 0:11:26.839 the National Front and France, and that is something people 0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:29.520 in America don't talk much about. Wow, that is a 0:11:29.679 --> 0:11:32.520 great final note and one to follow up on at 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:34.720 some point in the future. Ian Bremmer, President, founder of 0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:36.880 the Eurasia Group. Ian, Hey, thanks a million for the time. 0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:41.959 We know how busy you are, stay intact and yours. 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:43.520 That's a good I might put that at the bottom 0:11:43.559 --> 0:11:45.240 of my emails from here. On that. Wow. So a 0:11:45.240 --> 0:11:48.679 couple of thoughts to recap if you two boys are 0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:52.880 done with your little jokes. UM. The Russian note at 0:11:52.880 --> 0:11:55.960 the end is absolutely worth pointing out. Putin is trying 0:11:55.960 --> 0:11:59.360 as hard as he can to help France disintegrate. UM. 0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:02.120 A second note on the whole six percent. But you 0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:04.480 ask a lot of French people how many Muslims are 0:12:04.480 --> 0:12:09.480 there are and they say that would be easil easy 0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:14.319 to UM to say that's paranoia or anti immigrant, um 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:19.040 bias whatever. I would make the counterpoint, and this may 0:12:19.320 --> 0:12:22.720 not necessarily be true, but it's worth considering that that 0:12:22.840 --> 0:12:28.480 six percent has an outsized influence and has caused change 0:12:29.200 --> 0:12:32.480 beyond their numbers. Sure, absolutely absolutely, as it has in 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:36.520 this country with introducing a different language and everything. Right, 0:12:36.840 --> 0:12:38.640 you can you can talk about the percentages, or you 0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:41.240 can talk about, for instance, just a legal immigration in 0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:44.520 the United States. The change that it's done in your 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:47.960 school or your e er, right, is beyond the percentage 0:12:47.960 --> 0:12:52.200 of the population, right, Yeah, exactly. UM. So yeah, that 0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:56.040 that whole six is really really interesting. But I don't 0:12:56.040 --> 0:12:57.640 think it's as simple as some people might. Do you 0:12:57.760 --> 0:13:00.360 recommend do you recommend the book submission? I do to anybody. 0:13:00.360 --> 0:13:03.520 I think it's so damned interesting. Absolutely, it's it's great. 0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:08.760 It wasn't what I expected it to be. It's incredibly reasonable. 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:12.160 My guy named Welbeck spelled with an H and look 0:13:12.160 --> 0:13:18.160 it up. You'll find it blot al beck. Um, you're 0:13:18.200 --> 0:13:24.520 listening to the Armstrong and Getty shilling the conscience of 0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:25.240 the nation.