WEBVTT - Rebecca Patterson Talks Threat on The Dollar and Crypto 

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Sure compatison here for a good conversation to start the

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<v Speaker 2>morning off, and of course we devolve that to a

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<v Speaker 2>dollar discussion and on from there. She's focused on crypto.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll get to that in a moment. Her effort at

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<v Speaker 2>the Council on Foreign Relations is noticed. I can't say

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<v Speaker 2>enough about the new edition of Foreign Affairs magazine. You'll

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<v Speaker 2>see it in the next couple days or so. It's

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<v Speaker 2>just absolutely extraordinary. I've got to go to dollar here

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<v Speaker 2>right now? Is dollar heads?

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<v Speaker 1>Your money?

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<v Speaker 2>Is it threatened by all that's going on in Washington?

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<v Speaker 3>Longer term, yes, I think there is a threat to

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<v Speaker 3>the dollar from some of these policies. The US relies

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<v Speaker 3>on demand for treasuries and the idea that the Treasury

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<v Speaker 3>is going to be the biggest bond mark in the world.

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<v Speaker 3>Liquid safe, always transactional, and if you're putting tariffs on

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<v Speaker 3>allies as well as adversaries, over time, they may want

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<v Speaker 3>to diversify away from those assets. Now, there aren't a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of places for them to go, but one place

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<v Speaker 3>we've seen clearly over the last couple of years is gold.

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<v Speaker 3>And you are seeing data showing China reducing its treasury holdings.

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<v Speaker 3>Obviously we know Russia did over the last several years.

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<v Speaker 3>So the policies we're putting forward today, I think do

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<v Speaker 3>create some risk. Now there's new sources of demand that

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<v Speaker 3>we can talk about when we get to crypto, but

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<v Speaker 3>when we think about foreign holdings of US bonds, I

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<v Speaker 3>think that is a source of risk that could push

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<v Speaker 3>yields higher and weigh on growth.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, does it do you get a sense that

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<v Speaker 4>this White House, this economic team at the White House,

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<v Speaker 4>that they have a sense that, generally speaking, markets do

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<v Speaker 4>not like uncertainty, whether it's uncertainty of policy, uncertainly uncertainty

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<v Speaker 4>of rhetoric. Is that something that has an audience do

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<v Speaker 4>you think down there in DC? Or is it just

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<v Speaker 4>kind of overshadowed by this is a president that wants

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<v Speaker 4>to do what he wants to do.

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<v Speaker 3>President Trump has said in the last few weeks that

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<v Speaker 3>he knows there might be some short term pain to

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<v Speaker 3>to these long term goals. I think there's probably a

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<v Speaker 3>degree of pain reflected in the markets that would get

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<v Speaker 3>his and his team's attention and maybe cause them to

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<v Speaker 3>take a step back at least temporarily. But I don't

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<v Speaker 3>honestly know if today, looking at the sell off we

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<v Speaker 3>saw in the stock market last week and the continued

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<v Speaker 3>softness we're seeing this week registers.

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<v Speaker 2>I look at the follow through of all this, and

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<v Speaker 2>I guess I go back, like a lot of people,

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<v Speaker 2>to real GDP.

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<v Speaker 1>The fact is.

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<v Speaker 2>Atlanta GDP now a snapshot of where we are right

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<v Speaker 2>now is coming in with a vengeance. Do you sense

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<v Speaker 2>a momentum to uh, you know, to make some news

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<v Speaker 2>here on a What's today Tuesday?

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<v Speaker 4>Tuesday?

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<v Speaker 1>On a Tuesday morning.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, I'm worrying about I got the stitches out from

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<v Speaker 2>where the damn dog bit me.

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<v Speaker 1>Just as simple as I can.

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<v Speaker 2>Are we heading towards two point five percent or lower

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<v Speaker 2>real GDP?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, here's what's so interesting, Tom. You know, last year

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<v Speaker 3>GDP was much stronger than expected. We've gone into this

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<v Speaker 3>year strong. We've seen that in the most recent earning season.

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<v Speaker 3>But that's all backward looking. What drives the economy is

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<v Speaker 3>confidence and incomes. So people still have incomes. The job

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<v Speaker 3>market's still strong outside of certain DC agencies. I don't

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<v Speaker 3>mean to be snarky about that, but confidence is where

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<v Speaker 3>we're seeing some question marks. The other piece that's changing

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<v Speaker 3>is economic surprises. A lot of economists revised up their

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<v Speaker 3>expectations immediately after the election. What we've seen over the

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<v Speaker 3>last several weeks now is data coming in below expectations, disappointing,

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<v Speaker 3>and that indicator coming down.

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<v Speaker 4>Now.

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<v Speaker 3>I want to be careful on causation, but it's correlating

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<v Speaker 3>beautifully with the ten year yield. So the market's pricing

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<v Speaker 3>in two fed cuts again, the ten year yield is

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<v Speaker 3>getting lower. All of that is coming hand in hand

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<v Speaker 3>with both worries about the forward looking economic outlook and disappointments.

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<v Speaker 2>Yea to four digits, Paul pattersons in the room, so

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<v Speaker 2>we got to, you know, go four decimal points alutely

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<v Speaker 2>one point eight nine nine four on the ten year realield.

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<v Speaker 1>That's an ian linga number top go.

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<v Speaker 4>These are the top stories on the Bloomberg terminal. Tom,

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<v Speaker 4>guess what's number one here? Your favorite bitcoin? Bitcoin slides

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<v Speaker 4>below ninety thousand is crypto selloff gathers steam to me,

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<v Speaker 4>I know you're recently at with a piece and CFR

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<v Speaker 4>on the crypto. I kind of just view bitcoin is

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<v Speaker 4>just a sense of risk appetite out there in the marketplace.

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<v Speaker 1>That's it is. Are we saying risk off a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit here?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean it's Bitcoin correlates very well with tech stocks,

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<v Speaker 3>which is not surprising. At the end of the day.

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<v Speaker 3>Cryptocurrencies are a form of fintech. So when you see,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, the mag seven come down, it's not shocking

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<v Speaker 3>to me to see Bitcoin come down. If that sell off,

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<v Speaker 3>if Navidia disappoints tomorrow, boy, I think you see bitcoin

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<v Speaker 3>going down further. But it gets me back to our

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<v Speaker 3>treasury point earlier. President Trump, in one of his executive orders,

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<v Speaker 3>is very explicitly supporting the development of digital assets and

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<v Speaker 3>crypto and specifically stable coin. And I want to highlight

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<v Speaker 3>this because to the degree stable coins gather momentum, gather assets,

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<v Speaker 3>they're backed by the dollar. Ones are backed by treasuries

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<v Speaker 3>and other cash like assets. This is a source of

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<v Speaker 3>demand for treasuries that I think Treasury Secretary Bessett is

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<v Speaker 3>keeping a close eye on tether, just that one has

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<v Speaker 3>something like one hundred and thirteen billion dollars worth of

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<v Speaker 3>treasury and treasury like securities.

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<v Speaker 4>Today.

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<v Speaker 2>Rebecca Pattison with this of course on your morning commute

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<v Speaker 2>and also on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast growing each

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<v Speaker 2>and every day.

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<v Speaker 1>Can't say enough about YouTube premium.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm reading the book Mark Richard's book on YouTube and

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<v Speaker 2>YouTube premium. Sure, I'm glad I did. It's sort of

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<v Speaker 2>slick and all that. Let's go back to JP Morgan

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<v Speaker 2>and Bestmer's trust. Is there an underlying bitcoin?

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<v Speaker 1>Please?

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<v Speaker 2>Where's the underlying to support a theory of bitcoin?

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, bitcoin itself to me anyway, remains a speculative asset.

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<v Speaker 3>And I'm not saying that lightly. The Bank for International

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<v Speaker 3>Settlements did a really detailed report about a year and

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<v Speaker 3>a half ago. It's worth reading, talking about the development

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<v Speaker 3>of crypto, and it highlights, based on a global survey,

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<v Speaker 3>a very detailed global survey, that the bulk of owners

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<v Speaker 3>of bitcoin today are young men under the age of

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<v Speaker 3>thirty five, retail investors, and it's a momentum trade.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I should say worldwide, folks. And you see me

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<v Speaker 2>say this on social The leadership here is Raphael our

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<v Speaker 2>au Er at the Bank of International Settlements. He has

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<v Speaker 2>the best whatever your belief on bitcoin, I mean, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>Matt Miller should read it.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, if you can find his past code to cashtow

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<v Speaker 1>is Rebecca.

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<v Speaker 4>Is this administration? I mean, I think President trumpets some point,

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<v Speaker 4>whether it's campaign or where, describe yourself as a crypto president.

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<v Speaker 4>Is this a crypto presidency? Is this something where the

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<v Speaker 4>next four years we can see the US regulatory framework

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<v Speaker 4>support crypto in.

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<v Speaker 3>This country one hundred percent. I think over the next

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<v Speaker 3>six twelve months we will see regulatory clarity which is

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<v Speaker 3>going to allow more integration between crypto assets and the

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<v Speaker 3>traditional banking system. And I think it probably will get

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<v Speaker 3>more broad adoption, so it won't just be the young men,

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<v Speaker 3>it will be more types of investors. And that's good

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<v Speaker 3>for crypto in that it'll reduce volatility by having more liquidity.

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<v Speaker 3>The risk one needs to watch is that as it

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<v Speaker 3>gets bigger and more integrated, it becomes a source of

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<v Speaker 3>systemic risk. You know, if you have a hack like

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<v Speaker 3>we did this past week in by bit right one

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<v Speaker 3>hundred or sorry, one point five billion dollar hack of

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<v Speaker 3>a cold wallet which is supposed to be saved right

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<v Speaker 3>cold while it is offline, but that happened in the

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<v Speaker 3>United States, we would have contagion and and that you know,

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<v Speaker 3>it's not just going to be Silicon Valley bank. It

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<v Speaker 3>would be broader. So that's the thing one needs to

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<v Speaker 3>watch out for. You can have regulation to give them

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<v Speaker 3>the ability to grow and innovate, you still have to

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<v Speaker 3>have a few consumer guardrails there.

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<v Speaker 2>Our listeners and viewers know where I am on this,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think Mss Patterson knows where I am on this.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's cut to the chase.

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<v Speaker 2>First thing I did this morning is from peak to

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<v Speaker 2>where we are now, bitdog is down twenty percent.

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<v Speaker 1>That's not a currency.

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<v Speaker 2>We've got all sorts of ira etf Eric Beltcheunas, Blackrock, this, that.

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<v Speaker 1>And the other doing it.

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<v Speaker 2>What should we say to those people if we pop

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<v Speaker 2>down another ten percent? I mean horrific bear markets in

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<v Speaker 2>the equity market are negative thirty five percent.

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<v Speaker 1>If we get that in bitcoin.

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<v Speaker 2>And we're now letting everybody have bitcoin, what's going to

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<v Speaker 2>be the.

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<v Speaker 3>Out Well again my concern. I think to the degree

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<v Speaker 3>digital assets encourage more financial innovation in the United States,

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<v Speaker 3>that's great, right. Our financial system is creative and broad

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<v Speaker 3>and deep, and that helps the US economy. What we

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<v Speaker 3>need to be mindful of is that the pool of

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<v Speaker 3>people today, not in the future, but today who are

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<v Speaker 3>trading bitcoin and these currencies aren't necessarily aware of how

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<v Speaker 3>to save for retirement in a safe, methodical way. This

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<v Speaker 3>is not an easy path to retirement riches, and if

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<v Speaker 3>they lose their money, they have less ability to buy

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<v Speaker 3>a home to invest for the longer term. So understanding

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<v Speaker 3>the volatility of what they're buying. That's I hope that

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<v Speaker 3>these cryptocur companies do a lot more education going forward

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<v Speaker 3>to help these people invest in these assets wisely. Right now,

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<v Speaker 3>I don't see a lot of evidence of that.

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<v Speaker 2>Paul Out on YouTube live chat, Thank You Live, Chack

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<v Speaker 2>can be very smart. Subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts. This guy

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<v Speaker 2>one word tulips.

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<v Speaker 4>One of the things that is the regulatory environment. Like

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<v Speaker 4>in the last administration, in the Bide administration, Gary Ganser,

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<v Speaker 4>I expected him. I think a lot of people did that.

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<v Speaker 4>A he understood crypto and B he was going to

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<v Speaker 4>take a forceful hand and kind of pushing the regulatory

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<v Speaker 4>framework forward, which most participants are asking for.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, yes he did not. Really.

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<v Speaker 4>What do we know about this administration, the Trump administration.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, there's In the last administration, there was some debate

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<v Speaker 3>fight whatever word you want to use, between the different

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<v Speaker 3>regulatory agencies on who would be the lead on digital assets.

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<v Speaker 3>I think in this administration, we're likely to see a

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<v Speaker 3>lighter touch, probably led by the CFTC rather than the SEC.

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<v Speaker 3>I think we'll get some legislation from Congress through probably

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<v Speaker 3>in the next few months, which will also create a

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<v Speaker 3>clear path. And these companies need it, they deserve it right.

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<v Speaker 3>They need to know the rules of the road, and

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<v Speaker 3>the banks and other asset manageers need to know the

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<v Speaker 3>rules of the road. So I do think this administration

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<v Speaker 3>is going to be incredibly helpful on that front. Again,

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<v Speaker 3>my hope and my ask if I could, if I

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<v Speaker 3>could be there in the White House today, would be,

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<v Speaker 3>please don't forget some consumer protection, some consumer guardrails.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you have in your head?

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<v Speaker 2>A price of bitcoin south where everybody starts wringing their hands.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean we're eighty nine thousand, is it eighty? Is

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<v Speaker 2>at fifty?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I have no idea.

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<v Speaker 3>So my worst case scenario, a realistic worst case scenario,

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<v Speaker 3>would be that we get some disappointment out of one

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<v Speaker 3>of the big tech companies in Navidia, whoever it is,

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<v Speaker 3>it doesn't matter, and we get more of a concerted

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<v Speaker 3>sell off, maybe in response to tariffs, China puts some

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<v Speaker 3>holds on us tech companies acting in China. Those sorts

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<v Speaker 3>of maneuvers, you get a bigger sell off in tech,

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<v Speaker 3>which is not impossible given valuations, given ownership, and that

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<v Speaker 3>contagion pulls down cryptocurrencies in a meaningful way because these

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<v Speaker 3>investors own crypto and they own meme stocks, and they

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<v Speaker 3>own a lot of tech, and so they get hit

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<v Speaker 3>on both fronts. That could get some momentum and pull

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<v Speaker 3>down the broader market. I don't know if anyone buys

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<v Speaker 3>that dip, because they just need to be covering their

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<v Speaker 3>losses at that point.

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<v Speaker 2>Well again, and the retailization of this is where I

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<v Speaker 2>have my radar.

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<v Speaker 1>Rebecca, thank you so much,