WEBVTT - Super Bowl 2.0, this time with feeling 0:00:00.680 --> 0:00:04.400 Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio. 0:00:06.760 --> 0:00:10.440 Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio, 0:00:10.880 --> 0:00:14.720 your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice. 0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:18.600 Now along with the guys from fanball dot Com. Here's 0:00:18.640 --> 0:00:23.960 the host for Fantasy Football Weekly, Paul. Welcome to another 0:00:24.120 --> 0:00:27.240 edition of Fantasy Football Weekly. Of super Bowl edition. Just 0:00:28.920 --> 0:00:32.120 is away. Yeah, super Bowl Edition two point oh. You 0:00:32.200 --> 0:00:35.200 and Scott Fish did a great job last week. Yeah, 0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:37.880 it got me excited. I was on the plane heading 0:00:37.960 --> 0:00:41.520 home and I needed a good Uh. Oh, man, there's 0:00:41.520 --> 0:00:44.600 Scott right now. He's waving at his he heard his name. 0:00:44.640 --> 0:00:47.720 I think he did. Hey, He's like, Hey, let's happen. 0:00:47.760 --> 0:00:52.480 It's goot, let's happen. Oh, this is the Nick Bosa 0:00:52.560 --> 0:00:55.200 half a sack conversation. You love Nick Bosa half a sack. 0:00:55.320 --> 0:00:57.640 I know I'm gonna take Joey Bosa and the under 0:00:58.920 --> 0:01:03.480 the way under way under Uh. That's my co host 0:01:03.640 --> 0:01:08.399 Explosive Output Matt Harrison at Explosive Output on Twitter. We 0:01:08.560 --> 0:01:10.440 um it was Scott Fish last week. We broke it 0:01:10.440 --> 0:01:13.160 down the game fantasy style last week, and at that 0:01:13.200 --> 0:01:17.959 time I lamented that I really didn't have a great 0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:21.640 sense of who is gonna win in the in the 0:01:21.640 --> 0:01:24.840 week sense. I feel pretty good. And where where are 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:27.000 you coming in on? Niners are gonna win? I think 0:01:27.040 --> 0:01:29.200 the Niners are gonna win. So I was just can 0:01:29.240 --> 0:01:32.400 tell you why if you want, well, I yeah, go ahead, 0:01:32.440 --> 0:01:35.280 tell me why. I'll tell you why. Let me let's 0:01:35.319 --> 0:01:39.960 just talk broadly about the paths to victory. The Chiefs 0:01:39.959 --> 0:01:43.680 have got one and a half viable path to victory. 0:01:44.080 --> 0:01:47.560 Patrick Mahomes in their passing game clearly one of them. 0:01:47.600 --> 0:01:51.560 Their past defense is good. It's not lights out, but 0:01:51.600 --> 0:01:53.800 it's good. I'll give him half. That's that's the one 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:55.880 and half. They're not gonna run their way to victory, 0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:58.000 and the run defense is not going to key them 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:01.040 to victory. The nine or Is, on the other hand, 0:02:01.360 --> 0:02:06.440 have got four paths to victory. They can pass their 0:02:06.480 --> 0:02:11.560 way to a win with Kittle and Sanders and Samuel 0:02:11.600 --> 0:02:14.880 all capable of game changing plays. Jimmy Garoppolo better than 0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:22.680 people think percent completion percentage twice in a in one sentence. Um, 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:25.440 you know, people think he's like this mundane caretaker quarterback. 0:02:25.840 --> 0:02:30.480 I'll remind people four times this year in the same 0:02:30.560 --> 0:02:33.560 game he threw for two seven yards and three or 0:02:33.760 --> 0:02:36.720 four touchdowns in a game. I think it's not a 0:02:36.760 --> 0:02:39.760 caretaker cord and think that those were all against the Cardinals, 0:02:39.760 --> 0:02:44.839 though two of the four were against the Cardinals. Okay, 0:02:45.040 --> 0:02:50.320 some and dude, it's a winner Garoppolo. Four games with 0:02:50.360 --> 0:02:59.120 Garoppolo starting since so since Jimmy Garoppolo four games with him, 0:02:59.480 --> 0:03:05.799 nineteen wins, twenty four games without him four I mean 0:03:06.240 --> 0:03:07.960 a winner. I mean, you know, you look at what 0:03:08.000 --> 0:03:10.760 the state of the team is. Anytime he doesn't play 0:03:10.840 --> 0:03:13.040 and they can't win, doesn't hurt that they have one 0:03:13.080 --> 0:03:15.399 of the top defenses in the league. And that's probably 0:03:15.400 --> 0:03:17.480 one of your next paths to victory. It is a 0:03:17.520 --> 0:03:20.040 path to victory, isn't it. Here's your past defense for 0:03:20.080 --> 0:03:22.720 the forty Niners, number one in passing yards allowed this year. 0:03:22.800 --> 0:03:25.200 And by the way, if you take out that December 0:03:25.200 --> 0:03:29.519 when they were missing four defensive starters, the average game 0:03:29.560 --> 0:03:31.760 we mentioned this stat last week with Scott Fish the 0:03:31.840 --> 0:03:36.400 average game passing against the forty Niners one hundred sixty 0:03:36.440 --> 0:03:41.600 one yards. That's it. One tell people the special guest 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:45.080 that's in studio with us, oh my dog Hattie. She's 0:03:45.080 --> 0:03:48.440 a little puppy. She's four months old. So a Morky, 0:03:48.880 --> 0:03:51.360 I'll post a picture on Twitter. Now, people don't know 0:03:51.400 --> 0:03:55.640 a Morky is half yor Ky and half mork from Orc, 0:03:57.080 --> 0:04:00.120 yes or Maltese, one of the two. One of that. 0:04:00.800 --> 0:04:04.600 We can't be sure. You know, Robin Williams legacy is 0:04:04.640 --> 0:04:09.120 so profound that it's it may actually be into the breeding. 0:04:09.240 --> 0:04:11.600 She does have a little bit of Robin Williams hair. 0:04:12.200 --> 0:04:14.720 I mean it kind of looks like harrier than your 0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:17.880 dog that I think. I think she'd give him a run. 0:04:18.640 --> 0:04:21.320 Uh but had Hattie's in studio. She doesn't make a 0:04:21.360 --> 0:04:22.960 lot of noise. You might hear a little wine in 0:04:23.000 --> 0:04:26.039 here there, but normally that's just me. Nine is her 0:04:26.120 --> 0:04:29.800 number five in sacks UH registered last year. UH of 0:04:29.960 --> 0:04:32.480 the season. Pro Football Focus ranks them number three in 0:04:32.520 --> 0:04:35.359 past run past rush defense and number one in past 0:04:35.720 --> 0:04:38.560 coverage defense. I mean, you know, so obviously they can 0:04:38.560 --> 0:04:40.920 win against the past. The Niners scan they can win 0:04:40.920 --> 0:04:44.919 against the run. They were top eight in rushing yards 0:04:44.920 --> 0:04:47.800 per game allowed, rushing attempts per game allowed, rushing touchdowns 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:50.599 per game allowed. UM there are two point four yards 0:04:50.640 --> 0:04:52.080 per carry. Aloud was right in the middle of the pack, 0:04:52.160 --> 0:04:54.320 So I'll grant them, I'll mention that. But I think 0:04:54.320 --> 0:04:58.280 they run defense, which totally shut down Dalvin Cook and 0:04:58.320 --> 0:05:00.880 Aaron Jones. It's a good on defense. They can win 0:05:00.920 --> 0:05:03.280 on the run defense, and then of course they could 0:05:03.480 --> 0:05:05.960 The Niners can run themselves, run on offense. They can 0:05:06.000 --> 0:05:07.600 run to victory. They have four paths. I don't even 0:05:07.600 --> 0:05:09.599 have to explain how they can run their path unto victories. 0:05:09.680 --> 0:05:11.200 They just did it twice in a role in the 0:05:11.240 --> 0:05:16.040 playoffs against good teeth, good defenses. So yeah, that's uh. 0:05:16.120 --> 0:05:18.320 I think the Niners have so many more paths to victory. 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:20.040 I just feel better about the nine. If they play 0:05:20.120 --> 0:05:22.040 this game a hundred times. How many times do you 0:05:22.040 --> 0:05:24.080 think the Niners win? Obviously you think it's more than 0:05:24.120 --> 0:05:30.160 half sixty three? Okay? Um, So I just saw some 0:05:30.240 --> 0:05:35.920 stats from the athletics shil Kapatia, and I probably mispronounced 0:05:36.560 --> 0:05:39.920 like you're destroyed him because family legacy has been ruined. 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:43.320 Six point eight billion being wagered on Super Bowl fifty four. 0:05:44.040 --> 0:05:45.320 That's a lot of money. I wish we had to 0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:48.480 cut it. I'll be part of that. According to the 0:05:48.520 --> 0:05:55.240 Borgatta in Atlantic, City of the money, and of the 0:05:55.279 --> 0:05:58.840 tickets are being bet on the Chiefs. I like being 0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:01.159 on the house side with the underdog and the over 0:06:01.320 --> 0:06:04.159 by the way, everybody pounding the over. One of the 0:06:04.200 --> 0:06:06.479 one of the great stats. I saw the Chiefs three 0:06:06.520 --> 0:06:12.560 losses this year. I combined sixteen points. That's it. That's it. 0:06:13.000 --> 0:06:15.479 We're pretty close. So how gutsy do you have to 0:06:15.480 --> 0:06:19.560 be to take the Niners and giving points? Because you 0:06:19.600 --> 0:06:21.800 can do that, right you can. You can go Niners 0:06:21.839 --> 0:06:24.239 and go Niners and give three, and can go Niners 0:06:24.279 --> 0:06:26.120 and give so I shot you that the other day. 0:06:26.400 --> 0:06:30.680 I gotta pulled up right here. Um this is from Westgate. Uh. 0:06:30.720 --> 0:06:34.440 If you give the Niners, if they if they have 0:06:34.520 --> 0:06:37.279 three and a half that they have to beat, Yeah, PLU, 0:06:38.720 --> 0:06:40.720 that's not enough. It could be more than plus one 0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:43.480 sixty five. It's like Vegas has this figured out. Minus 0:06:43.560 --> 0:06:46.600 seven and a half plus two seventy should still be 0:06:46.640 --> 0:06:50.160 more minus ten and a half plus four hundred. Now 0:06:50.160 --> 0:06:54.000 we're getting there. And the one if we're gonna make 0:06:54.040 --> 0:06:56.159 a bet as a as an office for you to 0:06:56.160 --> 0:06:58.920 take to Vegas this weekend, I think we should go 0:06:59.040 --> 0:07:03.120 for the forty Niners blowout scenario minus fourteen and a 0:07:03.160 --> 0:07:06.360 half plus five fifty Because if we're all gonna throw in, 0:07:06.400 --> 0:07:08.480 you know, ten twenty bucks here and and and put 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:10.280 a wager down to make it worth our while, I 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:12.080 want you to come back and give me a hundred, 0:07:12.080 --> 0:07:15.280 not forty. What fun is that? So I like that angle. 0:07:15.400 --> 0:07:17.920 If we're gonna do the office bet, let's do some 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:21.840 player props. Yeah, I've got three and a half that 0:07:21.920 --> 0:07:25.760 I can talk about. I got three that I like 0:07:26.000 --> 0:07:29.880 quite a bit. First, I'll start with the Sammy Watkins 0:07:30.000 --> 0:07:33.679 over under a forty eight and a half receiving yards. 0:07:34.480 --> 0:07:36.640 He's had forty nine or more yards and four of 0:07:36.680 --> 0:07:40.120 his last six and everybody like just knows he had 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:42.920 that great Week one and then did nothing the rest 0:07:42.960 --> 0:07:44.840 of the regular season. But he had a couple of 0:07:44.920 --> 0:07:48.000 little pop ups in the end of an end of 0:07:48.000 --> 0:07:50.520 the year and more active in the playoff and the playoffs, 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:53.960 he's been good, uh seventy six yards in the Divisional round, 0:07:54.160 --> 0:07:57.760 a hundred and fourteen in the conference championship. And I 0:07:57.760 --> 0:08:02.400 imagine San Francisco slides their average or at least tries 0:08:02.440 --> 0:08:06.240 to get good players on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey 0:08:06.280 --> 0:08:07.920 a lot. There's gonna be a lot of double teaming 0:08:07.920 --> 0:08:09.880 of this year. But they're not gonna move Richard Sherman. 0:08:09.880 --> 0:08:12.040 They're not going to move him at all. If Sammy 0:08:12.040 --> 0:08:15.960 Watkins lends up on a Kello Witherspoon, it takes one pass, 0:08:17.240 --> 0:08:20.000 whether won't be on the field. He might not, They'll 0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:26.240 use Emmanuel Moses spond. I means, should only be one 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:29.080 pass from Patrick Mahomes for Sammy Watkins to hit the 0:08:29.120 --> 0:08:31.440 over on this bet. I kind of like the bet 0:08:31.520 --> 0:08:33.880 that's true about really all of the players. It's one 0:08:33.880 --> 0:08:37.079 pass to Tyreek Hill, one pass to Travis Kelsey. And 0:08:37.200 --> 0:08:40.840 that's why it's so god It's so scary to bet 0:08:40.920 --> 0:08:47.680 anything against him, because that's all it takes. He's just anyone, 0:08:47.880 --> 0:08:52.000 anyone thing, anyone play at Mahomes just lit you up. Um. 0:08:52.800 --> 0:08:54.680 I still kind of like the Chiefs to win this game, 0:08:54.760 --> 0:08:58.320 and it's just because of Pat Patrick Mahomes. He's the 0:08:58.520 --> 0:09:00.560 X factor of the whole thing. He the best player 0:09:00.559 --> 0:09:04.440 in the league. Oh for sure, We're we're not going 0:09:04.520 --> 0:09:06.640 to talk about him as the top overall pick in 0:09:06.679 --> 0:09:08.960 Fantasy next year, but I think he's going to be 0:09:09.040 --> 0:09:12.680 my QB one when we go into Fantasy football season next, 0:09:12.840 --> 0:09:15.960 very defensible, all right, anything else on Watkins? No, that's it. 0:09:16.000 --> 0:09:18.480 But I want to hear your next George Kittle over 0:09:18.520 --> 0:09:21.320 sixty seven. Brian Johnson feels very strong and he's been 0:09:21.320 --> 0:09:24.480 pounding the table on this. So I decided digging on Kittle. Um, 0:09:24.559 --> 0:09:26.960 we're gonna We're gonna cash in on a recency bias here. 0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:29.720 Kittle has failed two top twenty yards in the two 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:33.000 playoff games, so I think people are understandably nervous about 0:09:33.040 --> 0:09:37.160 banking on Kittle now. But here's the thing. If I 0:09:37.200 --> 0:09:41.679 look at Kittle's last games, one game he hit right 0:09:41.720 --> 0:09:46.560 on sixty seven yards. Nine games went over the number. 0:09:46.600 --> 0:09:50.760 Wait nine times nine? Where where is it hold on fantasy? 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:58.959 Not that one? No, you need the cheat sheet. Where's 0:09:59.040 --> 0:10:10.160 nine times it took you? Nine times? Nine times he 0:10:10.280 --> 0:10:14.679 hit sixty By the way, you just left. Just let 0:10:14.679 --> 0:10:16.880 it breathe, Just let it breathe. I'll never get tired 0:10:17.440 --> 0:10:22.560 of hearing the sad trombone solo from American Pie too. Uh. 0:10:22.920 --> 0:10:26.000 Kittle went over the Vegas number of sixties seven nine 0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:29.000 times in his last thirteen games, so you might be 0:10:29.040 --> 0:10:32.760 thinking yourself, well, Vegas had to adjust Vegas had to 0:10:32.840 --> 0:10:39.120 adjust the line because Kansas Cities defense was so good 0:10:39.160 --> 0:10:43.959 against tight ends. Uh man, were they bad? Kansas City 0:10:43.960 --> 0:10:47.080 allowed the second most tight end receptions the fourth most 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:50.240 tight end yards. And here's the funny thing. I'm looking 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:54.640 through Tennessee against elite tight ends this year and I'm 0:10:54.679 --> 0:10:58.320 trying to find comparables to George Kittle, and there aren't any. 0:10:58.360 --> 0:11:01.199 They played the softest tight end schedule. You can imagine 0:11:01.800 --> 0:11:05.120 the two best tight ends they faced all year, Darren 0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:09.720 Waller and Hunter Henry. That no, it is and they're 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:12.520 in division and they're in division UM. And by the way, 0:11:12.520 --> 0:11:16.320 those guys predominantly did well. So yeah, it's I I 0:11:16.360 --> 0:11:18.360 think it'll sitting on a really nice game here. By 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:21.800 the way, two weeks ago, Tennessee's tight ends went over 0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:26.120 the Vegas number of sixty seven as well. Two weeks ago, UM, 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:28.920 Kansas City lost their free safety want Thornhill in week 0:11:29.000 --> 0:11:31.640 seventeen as well. So I roll all that together. I 0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:35.840 really like Kiddle going over sixty seven yards. You know, 0:11:35.920 --> 0:11:38.600 it's fun to bet the overs on the over unders. 0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:40.880 Nobody ever wants to cheer for the unders, and it is. 0:11:41.000 --> 0:11:42.800 That's how Vegas is built, by the way, so we 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:45.520 should probably be hitting under bets like left and right 0:11:45.559 --> 0:11:50.120 on these But how about Deebo Samuel over under of 0:11:50.200 --> 0:11:54.240 seventeen and a half rushing yards in that's scary to 0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:57.480 be It's scary, Okay, he'ld get no carries and I 0:11:57.480 --> 0:12:00.200 wouldn't be surprised, all right. He's had a carry in 0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:03.480 each of the last seven games at least one carry um, 0:12:03.559 --> 0:12:06.880 and he's averaging fourteen point two yards per carry, so 0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:08.560 we need him to get to one in a third 0:12:08.640 --> 0:12:12.000 carries exactly. He's top twenty yards and five of his 0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:15.520 last seven. He's had at least two rushing attempts in 0:12:15.600 --> 0:12:20.160 four of the last six, so he's they keep moving 0:12:20.200 --> 0:12:24.280 him around. Kyle Shanahan's offense is predicated on moving guys around, 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:27.319 having different points of attack throughout the whole game. Hattie's 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:30.680 chewing on the microphone card. Hattie's chewing on your your 0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:35.040 microphone card right now? What would happen if you went 0:12:35.080 --> 0:12:41.880 home with Hattie's carcass and explained that Hattie electrocuted herself 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:46.000 and died in the office on your watch. I don't 0:12:46.000 --> 0:12:48.880 think that's to the kids. I don't think i'd go home. 0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:51.840 I just I just disappear. You might get too at 0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:55.280 that point, change your identity because right now Hattie's worth 0:12:55.320 --> 0:12:57.080 a lot more in that house than you are. Oh 0:12:57.120 --> 0:12:59.959 definitely for sure. So yeah, I like I like debote 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:02.440 top that over on the rushing yards. I think it's 0:13:02.520 --> 0:13:05.640 kind of a sneaky one, and I think twenties just 0:13:06.040 --> 0:13:09.000 something that he can get on one carry, one carry, 0:13:09.080 --> 0:13:11.960 it could be. So I like these player props where 0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:15.200 it's like only one thing has to happen for for 0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:18.319 me to win this. It's it seems pretty easy, and 0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:20.199 it's things that I think that we can do. So 0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:22.760 all right, I've got a couple more. You've got at 0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:24.679 least one more. We'll take a quick break and we'll 0:13:24.720 --> 0:13:26.959 come back with more of our our player prop analysis 0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:29.560 for the Super Bowls. It's Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Charchi 0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:35.480 and Matt Harrison with you, and we're back. If I 0:13:35.559 --> 0:13:40.600 were to tell you, Matt that Damian Williams isn't going 0:13:40.640 --> 0:13:43.559 to be the chief who rushes for the first touchdown, 0:13:44.360 --> 0:13:48.160 who's the next most likely person If it's not gonna 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:51.040 be Damian Williams, we know none of the other running 0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:56.600 factors it's Patrick Mahomes. You've cracked the code. I could 0:13:56.640 --> 0:13:59.040 you have to pay five to one on Damian Williams 0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:02.719 or you can get twenty to one on Patrick Mahomes 0:14:02.760 --> 0:14:05.400 to score the first touchdown of the game. I heard 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:07.800 on a podcast yesterday Warren Sharp was on there and 0:14:07.840 --> 0:14:12.320 he said that Patrick Mahomes on third down scrambles had 0:14:12.640 --> 0:14:17.640 one percent first downs this year on the season. Wow, 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:22.680 all year a year. That's nuts. Um. So let's by 0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:25.160 the way, for you know where did the rushing touchdowns 0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:28.120 primarily come from up close to the goal line? Total 0:14:28.200 --> 0:14:31.520 number of carries for Damian Williams from inside the three 0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:34.920 this year? You love inside the three? You like getting 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:38.920 in the infrared zone? They do? Um, it's not here 0:14:39.000 --> 0:14:43.120 longf hi. If you're if you're asking me this question, 0:14:43.120 --> 0:14:46.760 it's got to be like five or less. I'm getting free. Okay, three, 0:14:46.960 --> 0:14:49.880 that's it. They don't give the ball to Damian Williams 0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:52.560 at the stripe. Now, Damian Williams did get dinged up 0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:56.720 for a while this year and Sean McCoy was inexplicably 0:14:56.960 --> 0:14:59.240 in the offense, and then they used it out there. 0:14:59.280 --> 0:15:01.040 They figured it out towards the end of the year 0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:03.760 and Lashawn McCoy was gone from that office. Is so 0:15:03.840 --> 0:15:06.440 that doesn't mean that they were giving Williams these rushes 0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:10.440 at the stripe. And so I'm not worried about Damian Williams. 0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:13.760 Mahomes fully healthy from the mid season knee injury, and 0:15:13.880 --> 0:15:16.840 he scored rushing touchdowns in three of the past seven games. 0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:19.360 Is this a first rushing score prop? First the first 0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:21.800 score the game, first score of the game, and it 0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:24.520 could go to either team. Now, I like Damian Williams 0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:26.200 from the standpoint that he does catch a lot of 0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:29.320 passes and convert, they won't score from them because the 0:15:29.400 --> 0:15:32.240 Niners have not given up a running back receiving touchdown 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:35.080 all year. Well, they also have in faced Patrick Mahomes 0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:39.240 this season. It's the point is the point is that 0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:41.520 they don't give up the touchdowns to the running I 0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:44.280 don't have so Williams for Williams to be the first 0:15:44.280 --> 0:15:47.640 one to score a rushing touchdowner otherwise it just it 0:15:47.680 --> 0:15:51.280 seems unlikely because he would have to be the first 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:54.320 running back catch a reception touchdown. So you're saying you 0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:57.040 don't like this problem. I don't like the Williams prop. 0:15:57.160 --> 0:16:01.320 I like the I like the Mahomes shing first player 0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:04.200 to score. Okay, ma Homes is the first player to score. 0:16:04.240 --> 0:16:09.320 I like that angle a lot. Keeping Yeah, I mentioned 0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:13.440 that earlier, but that's okay, um angle if you can 0:16:13.480 --> 0:16:15.880 find it. What do you think about this? It sounds 0:16:15.880 --> 0:16:18.640 like Tevin Coleman is gonna play. Tevin Coleman does not 0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:21.800 play in games. See if you were testing your fantasy 0:16:21.800 --> 0:16:24.480 football knowledge here, if you go back to those that 0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:26.720 long streak of games early in the season when Tevin 0:16:26.720 --> 0:16:29.280 Coleman didn't, I know where you're getting who got the 0:16:29.360 --> 0:16:33.320 rushing touchdowns? It's Jeffrey Wilson. It is Jeffrey Wilson, who's 0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:35.480 so far off radars a lot of times you can't 0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:37.960 even find him to bet. But if you can, I'm 0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:41.400 seeing him at twenty five or thirty to one. That's it. 0:16:41.960 --> 0:16:46.120 I want more. You think I want like, I want 0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:48.840 like fifty two one on Jeffrey Wilson. Now, then nobody 0:16:48.880 --> 0:16:51.480 goes for that. Unfortunately he's part of the field, which 0:16:51.560 --> 0:16:53.520 is a bad deal. That's on the eight to one. Yeah, 0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:55.880 we don't like that. Okay, what's your next what's your 0:16:55.880 --> 0:16:59.800 next bet? I'll stick with the Niners. And their wide receivers. Actually, 0:16:59.800 --> 0:17:03.760 I annual Sanders over under of two and a half receptions, 0:17:03.760 --> 0:17:06.760 and this one's this one's counter to what has happened 0:17:06.800 --> 0:17:08.600 in the playoffs so far because he's only got two 0:17:08.640 --> 0:17:12.320 total receptions in playoff games. Now, how many passes did 0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:15.399 Garoppolo throw against the Packers? It was like six or 0:17:15.480 --> 0:17:18.240 eight or something like that. Didn't throw many more against 0:17:18.280 --> 0:17:20.760 the Vikings. They didn't have to. They were rushing for 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:22.679 eight or nine yards a clip, so they didn't have 0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:25.840 to pull anything out. Now, the fact that this matter 0:17:25.920 --> 0:17:27.760 is is the Chiefs are a better offense and they're 0:17:27.760 --> 0:17:29.480 gonna make this a better game. It's not going to 0:17:30.119 --> 0:17:32.480 it's not going to become a blowout in San Francisco's 0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:35.000 favor early. So I think that they're gonna have to 0:17:35.000 --> 0:17:38.919 go to Emmanuel Sanders. So the Niners played in five 0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:42.040 straight one score games to finish the season. They obviously 0:17:42.040 --> 0:17:45.800 had the two playoff big victories, but Sanders averaged four 0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:49.560 receptions per game in those five straight one score games. 0:17:49.560 --> 0:17:51.240 So if you think it's gonna be a close game, 0:17:51.720 --> 0:17:54.320 they're gonna throw to Sanders. When it was a shootout 0:17:54.359 --> 0:17:56.879 against the Saints, which it might be here. That was 0:17:56.920 --> 0:18:02.560 a two point game. Sanders had nine targets, seven seven receptions, 0:18:02.560 --> 0:18:07.000 a hundred and fifty seven yards and a score. Davis, Humphreys, 0:18:07.160 --> 0:18:10.639 and Brown each had at least three receptions against the 0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:15.520 Chief Davis Corey Davis up to Tennessee. It took me 0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:19.640 Tennessee Tennessee. Three wide receivers each had at least three 0:18:19.680 --> 0:18:24.080 receptions against Kansas City in the Conference championship. All three 0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:27.040 of the Houston wide receivers, Will Fuller, DeAndre Hopkins, Kenny 0:18:27.040 --> 0:18:30.400 Stills had at least three receptions. So we've had We've 0:18:30.400 --> 0:18:34.880 had six wide receivers top two and a half receptions 0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:37.840 in the last two weeks against the Niners. So I 0:18:37.840 --> 0:18:40.520 think Emmanuel Sanders over under two and a half. It 0:18:40.520 --> 0:18:43.000 feels like a lock. Um. I'll give you. I'll give 0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:45.520 you this as more of an intangible matt for why 0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:49.040 I believe you're right about Emmanuel Sanders. You're Jimmy Garoppolo, 0:18:49.040 --> 0:18:52.240 and you dropped back to pass. Oftentimes your first target, 0:18:52.320 --> 0:18:54.600 the first guy you're gonna look to is George Kittle. Fine, 0:18:55.119 --> 0:18:59.720 but who's next you look left? Here's Deebo Samuel in 0:18:59.840 --> 0:19:03.760 the biggest game of his career, rookie wide receiver, biggest 0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:07.320 game of his career, played at South South Carolina. It's 0:19:07.359 --> 0:19:09.080 not like he was in the A C. C plan 0:19:09.200 --> 0:19:12.600 for a national championship. I mean, or such pros as 0:19:12.640 --> 0:19:16.120 Troy Williamson coming out of South Carolina. Or you can 0:19:16.160 --> 0:19:19.520 turn to your head to the right and here's Emmanuel Sanders. 0:19:19.760 --> 0:19:23.880 Two times Super Bowl participant, one time Super Bowl winner, 0:19:24.680 --> 0:19:29.679 and in that game six catches eighty three yards. Who's 0:19:29.720 --> 0:19:33.080 a guy out of all of the Niners other than 0:19:33.119 --> 0:19:36.359 maybe Richard Sherman, especially on offense. Here the guy who's 0:19:36.359 --> 0:19:39.200 going to be most settled, the guy that you can 0:19:39.240 --> 0:19:41.560 count on to for the moment's not gonna be too 0:19:41.560 --> 0:19:44.600 big for him. Emmanuel Sanders. There we go. I think 0:19:44.720 --> 0:19:48.560 Kyle Shanahan's gonna target him early because he's going to 0:19:48.680 --> 0:19:50.280 be the guy that you can count on to not 0:19:50.480 --> 0:19:55.160 have the nerves, the Super Bowl nerves that a guy 0:19:55.200 --> 0:19:57.720 like people Samuel will have. If you think Shanahan's got 0:19:57.800 --> 0:20:00.320 like pages and pages of playbook that he hasn't shown 0:20:00.359 --> 0:20:03.880 anybody over the last few weeks, all in the passing game, 0:20:04.320 --> 0:20:07.280 well that was Emmanuel Sanders who just wasn't utilized in 0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:10.040 those two playoff games. I think he's going completely under 0:20:10.080 --> 0:20:12.040 the radar. I think he's a nice little play. I 0:20:12.080 --> 0:20:14.000 do too. I love the over two and a half. 0:20:14.040 --> 0:20:16.960 I am seeing it listed at three some places three, 0:20:16.960 --> 0:20:19.560 but I take the over two. Yeah, yeah, I agree. Uh. 0:20:19.720 --> 0:20:23.720 Patrick Mahomes has an over under three hundred five yards. 0:20:23.720 --> 0:20:28.720 It's started earlier at closer to like two, and it's 0:20:28.760 --> 0:20:32.640 been bumping up, up, up up. We're gonna go contrarian 0:20:32.760 --> 0:20:37.480 here and take the under. Now. Emotionally, that's no fund 0:20:39.040 --> 0:20:44.119 against It isn't especially, that's it's no fun. But the data, 0:20:44.920 --> 0:20:48.439 the data says to take the under. Let's dive in. Okay. 0:20:49.000 --> 0:20:51.119 In the nine games since returning from his knee injury, 0:20:51.119 --> 0:20:54.480 Patrick Mahomes has topped the Vegas number of three five 0:20:55.800 --> 0:21:01.080 three times out of nine times nine three out of 0:21:01.160 --> 0:21:04.600 nine that's it, okay. The other six have gone under. Now, 0:21:04.960 --> 0:21:07.760 when we look at during that span of nine games, 0:21:08.200 --> 0:21:13.040 his most recent nine games, when he's played other good 0:21:13.160 --> 0:21:17.200 past defenses New England, Chicago and the Chargers twice, these 0:21:17.200 --> 0:21:21.639 are defenses that are comparable to what the Niners can 0:21:21.680 --> 0:21:28.600 give you. Patrick Mahomes average game two hundred twenty two yards. 0:21:29.320 --> 0:21:32.440 That's it. Now. The Niners were the number one past 0:21:32.480 --> 0:21:35.399 defense this season, allowing a league low one nine passing 0:21:35.480 --> 0:21:37.720 yards per game. I alluded to this earlier. If you 0:21:37.800 --> 0:21:40.280 take out the month of December, that drops to one 0:21:40.720 --> 0:21:44.040 sixty one passing yards per game and zero point eight 0:21:44.040 --> 0:21:48.159 passing touchdowns. That's it. So you know in December with 0:21:48.280 --> 0:21:50.800 everybody's hurt, they're healthy. Now, you know, if he's going 0:21:50.840 --> 0:21:53.119 to get if one sixty one yards is what the 0:21:53.160 --> 0:21:57.960 Niners usually gave up, they can give up more yard 0:21:58.000 --> 0:22:02.800 Didge and Mahomes. It's still not hit his number. Mm 0:22:02.840 --> 0:22:06.119 hmm ma. Holmes doesn't necessarily need pass attempts to get 0:22:06.160 --> 0:22:08.159 his numbers because he's you know, he can throw the 0:22:08.160 --> 0:22:09.960 ball so far down field and everything else. But the 0:22:10.040 --> 0:22:13.320 nine is allowed the eighth fewest pass attempts, fourth fewest 0:22:13.320 --> 0:22:17.000 time of possession. So you just work all those things together, 0:22:17.200 --> 0:22:19.600 and there's a lot of ways. Patrick Mahomes doesn't hit 0:22:19.840 --> 0:22:23.600 three yards. I'm still gonna bet the over because it's 0:22:23.600 --> 0:22:26.879 way more fun. It's more fun, it's so much more fun. 0:22:27.359 --> 0:22:29.280 I'm gonna be out there with my wife and really, 0:22:29.359 --> 0:22:31.160 you know, we're just we're just looking to have fun. 0:22:31.240 --> 0:22:33.119 We're gonna be a big super Bowl. I mean, if 0:22:33.160 --> 0:22:35.120 you're looking to have fun, are you going to bet 0:22:35.160 --> 0:22:38.800 the over under on the national anthem? That's not fun? 0:22:38.920 --> 0:22:43.679 Currently said it two minutes. Demi Levado is singing, yeah, um, 0:22:43.800 --> 0:22:46.600 we got some tape on on her last couple of 0:22:46.680 --> 0:22:51.399