1 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:12,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Value and 2 00:00:12,119 --> 00:00:16,079 Speaker 1: Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of 3 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 1: the Action Network. We're just coming out of the college 4 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:28,360 Speaker 1: basketball National championship game, the Yukon Huskies one. They beat 5 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: San Diego State thirty five minutes from my house, as 6 00:00:32,920 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 1: stores Yukon campus erupted in near riots, and really proud 7 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 1: of that. I am joined as I am every episode 8 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:48,080 Speaker 1: by my BFF, my companion, my combinederate professional better coming 9 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:52,920 Speaker 1: to me all the way from Hawaii. E mister Simon Hunter. 10 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 1: Heto Simon al hot shot. Nothing makes sense in life. 11 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:01,280 Speaker 1: It really doesn't when you were learning the coneticut. Yukon 12 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 1: has five national titles. It just what is happening in 13 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 1: college sports? I don't know, it doesn't really make sense. 14 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 1: We all know about the women's but the men's side. 15 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: Are they one of the biggest best dynasties in college 16 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 1: basketball in the last what thirty years? Chat? Twenty years? 17 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 1: I mean years? Five titles, twenty five years. Do the 18 00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 1: math the other teams that have as many titles as them. 19 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: We're talking about Kentucky, We're talking about UCLA, We're talking 20 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,839 Speaker 1: about Kansas, We're talking about Indiana, We're talking about Duke. 21 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 1: So there is no way, there is no way. The 22 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:42,160 Speaker 1: Connecticut is not a blue blood program. It just is. 23 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 1: And like we like we said, check keep it simple. 24 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 1: Just bet the blue team and you will win multiple 25 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 1: national championships. And that's college basketball at its core. Just 26 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 1: bet the blue team. People, I overthought it. I went 27 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 1: with the team that I should have just went with Yukon. 28 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:01,639 Speaker 1: I think I went with Yukon in my final four. 29 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 1: But they were clearly what one of the best teams 30 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 1: we've ever seen run through a national tournament. They just 31 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:09,600 Speaker 1: dominated him, blow out every team they came across. So 32 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 1: people will get down on them because they didn't run 33 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:14,639 Speaker 1: through that heart of a gauntlet, but that's that's sports. 34 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 1: You have to beat the team in front of you, 35 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 1: and that's the hardest part is making the buckets in 36 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:22,359 Speaker 1: this clutch moment. So the Ukon awesome. Loved it, loved 37 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:24,919 Speaker 1: the college basketball coverage that we did all year in 38 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 1: Action Network. Some news, some news to share. We're gonna 39 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 1: get to some master's content with Spencer Aggiar who's been 40 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 1: one of the analysts on the Links and Locks podcast 41 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 1: on Action Network, and he's got a great story. Also 42 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:44,680 Speaker 1: the reigning Fantasy Sports Writer of the Year when it 43 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:47,799 Speaker 1: comes to golf, the fswa Fantasy Sports Writer of the Year. 44 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 1: We've got some news though. We know that a lot 45 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 1: of folks listen to us directly through the Herd Feed. 46 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: I've been telling people subscribe directly to the Favorites because 47 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 1: here's what's happened it. Starting April seventeenth. April seventeenth, you 48 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 1: will have to subscribe to the Favorites Feed if you 49 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 1: want to hear this podcast, we will not be in 50 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:19,120 Speaker 1: the Herd Feed. You will have to subscribe to the 51 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:22,080 Speaker 1: Favorites Feed. If you want to hear this podcast again 52 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 1: through the rest of the offseason for the NFL into 53 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:28,119 Speaker 1: the NFL season, subscribe to the Favorites Feed. Our relationship 54 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 1: with Volume will continue happily. We will still be on AMP. 55 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 1: We will still be all over the Volumes incredibly massive 56 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 1: YouTube channel. Come fall. You will still hear me on 57 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 1: Cowherds podcast. You'll hear other action analysts like Stucky and 58 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 1: Colin Wilson on other NFL and called football podcasts. But 59 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 1: if you want to listen to the Favorites as a 60 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 1: podcast on Spotify or Apple pods or wherever. Starting April seventeenth, 61 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 1: as we get into the final days before the draft 62 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 1: and then beyond into NFL season, you must subscribe directly 63 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,600 Speaker 1: to the Favorites. We love the Volume. We're excited to 64 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 1: continue the relationship in a variety of ways. They've got 65 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 1: incredible podcasts on their feed, including and if people aren't 66 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 1: listening to this, they should be Hoops Tonight with Jason Timp. 67 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 1: We have had on our podcast many many times that 68 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 1: thing is blown up. But you look at Jason timp 69 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 1: videos on YouTube, you watch his videos on Twitter, you 70 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:35,920 Speaker 1: listen to his podcast, It's like the audience what had 71 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:40,480 Speaker 1: started at and where it is now is insane. Good 72 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 1: for Jason, he's really good. Hoops Tonight, he's on AMP 73 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 1: after NBA games at night. He goes live for a 74 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:48,719 Speaker 1: lot of different things on YouTube. He's amazing. So go 75 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 1: listen to that on the Volume feed. Subscribe directly to 76 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:57,480 Speaker 1: the Favorites. That's where we will be starting April seventeenth. 77 00:04:57,520 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 1: But let's get into it as we do. As I said, 78 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 1: We've got Spencer Aggiar, co host of Links and Locks, 79 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 1: the reigning Fantasy Sports Writer of America, golf writer of 80 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 1: the year. It's got a massively smart betting model, Simon. 81 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 1: He's gonna make a smart about the Masters this week, 82 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:24,480 Speaker 1: which is a great way to transition from the hectic 83 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 1: seasons of NFL college football, college basketball. People like to 84 00:05:29,279 --> 00:05:32,599 Speaker 1: bet in the Master. Spencer, welcome, Chad Simon. It's an 85 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:35,559 Speaker 1: absolute pleasure to do this show with both of you guys. 86 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:41,920 Speaker 1: Spencer's about fifteen years old. Seriously, Simon, look at this guy. 87 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:43,720 Speaker 1: You can't see him on zoom, you can't see him 88 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 1: in the app. You're gonna have to watch the video. 89 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 1: But seriously, the guy looks like he's about fifteen years old. 90 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 1: This is the next wave though, this is the new 91 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:53,840 Speaker 1: movement chat. I'm telling you, the Internet changes everything. This kid, 92 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:55,840 Speaker 1: he's got a good story. He's gonna tell us he's 93 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:59,120 Speaker 1: been gamblin. I mean shit, he's probably still watching cartoons 94 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:01,320 Speaker 1: the first time he a bet in a sports book. 95 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 1: So definitely a definitely a cool story. And this is 96 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 1: what I always t help people. If you want to 97 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 1: get into this business, you build a model, and you're 98 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 1: struggle and you grind, and then the next part comes. 99 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 1: You need the model to start though. So yeah, Spencer's 100 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:15,800 Speaker 1: got a cool story, and I think a lot of 101 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:18,360 Speaker 1: people can take a lesson from it. Of no one 102 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:20,960 Speaker 1: just wakes up in this industry. You gotta grind, you 103 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 1: gotta work harder shit, and you gotta get a model. 104 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 1: I mean, there's no more of the old school. You 105 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:27,800 Speaker 1: gotta get contacts all this other stuff. Now, build a 106 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:30,799 Speaker 1: model first. Then you can make contacts and meet people 107 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:34,000 Speaker 1: along the way to help you get better. But definitely cool. 108 00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 1: Learn about Spencer and hearing his story, you Spencer tell it. Well, 109 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:41,719 Speaker 1: let me say this really fast. We're a gambling show here, obviously. 110 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:44,000 Speaker 1: Do you want to put an over under on how 111 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 1: old I actually am? Yeah? I do. Actually, I want 112 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:52,919 Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell to set the line. If you're listening on AMP, 113 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 1: you can't hear when Matt Mitchell speaks. So I will 114 00:06:55,680 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 1: tell everyone the line that Matt Mitchell sets on Spencer 115 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:04,039 Speaker 1: twenty three and a half. Matt Mitchell was set a 116 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 1: line of twenty three and a half under gotta go 117 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: under well. I mean it's a trap. Blind, I'll take 118 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 1: the bait. Yeah, I think I'm because it all right. 119 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go under well. The line was ten off 120 00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 1: thirty three years old. Talk to you that you're thirty 121 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:33,240 Speaker 1: three years old. Are you kidding me? Yes? So I'll 122 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 1: give you a little bit of my beast story here 123 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 1: to get into this. So I started at a very 124 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: young agent. I think Simon said that best when we're 125 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:43,160 Speaker 1: talking about creating models and doing this, and I'm sure 126 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 1: my mother would love me telling the story on air. 127 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 1: I mean, it's you know, it is what it is 128 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 1: at this point, I guess. But I got onto this 129 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 1: space and I'm born and raised in Vegas, so I've 130 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:57,200 Speaker 1: had a lot of people that in this town. I 131 00:07:57,240 --> 00:08:00,440 Speaker 1: am close to family friends with and one of my 132 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:03,960 Speaker 1: closest family friends we used to go travel to Montana 133 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 1: with him on his private jet and go do things. 134 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 1: I asked Simon this, I don't know if you know Chat. 135 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:13,160 Speaker 1: Do you know the late great Chip Reese professional poker player. 136 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:17,440 Speaker 1: No surprisingly one of the best sports betters of all 137 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 1: time too, but very sharp guys. So I was in 138 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 1: this space before I even really knew that I was 139 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 1: in the space of sports betting and gambling with it. 140 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 1: But you know, I was a good athlete when I 141 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:31,559 Speaker 1: was young. Kind of cut this bug at twelve or thirteen, which, 142 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 1: funny enough, Chat one of the first books I ever 143 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 1: put purchased, So I had two books here. I liked poker. 144 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:41,560 Speaker 1: I bought Doyle Brunson Supersystem, and then I got into 145 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 1: sports betting. I bought your book of the Odds. Those 146 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 1: are the first two books I ever read getting into 147 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 1: this space. And you know, I think when you're new 148 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 1: into it, and Simon was alluding to with it, you 149 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:54,079 Speaker 1: don't really know where to start with it, and it's 150 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 1: one of those things where you'll get better over time. 151 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:59,040 Speaker 1: And I kind of realized through trying to figure out 152 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: what was the best way to go back. And I 153 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: was telling Simon this off air, you kind of do 154 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,439 Speaker 1: things incorrectly at first, and like, to me, it was 155 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:08,439 Speaker 1: very basic of how I was building a model, Like 156 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 1: I was throwing stats in it really wasn't yielding the 157 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 1: results that I wanted on it, but it was at 158 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 1: least doing something to start with it. And as time 159 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:19,439 Speaker 1: goes on, you get a better understanding of, well, it's 160 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 1: not just about beating a closing line number, Like when 161 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:24,320 Speaker 1: you can be the one that starts beating the closing 162 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 1: line number yourself and you're the one that's doing that, 163 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 1: Like that's how this is all turns into this maturation 164 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 1: process of trying to do it. Like you know, I 165 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:34,959 Speaker 1: think I'm a little bit different in this space than 166 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:38,200 Speaker 1: most people that are located inside of it. I've always 167 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:41,040 Speaker 1: believed in teaching someone how to become a better gambler 168 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 1: or over straight pouting picks. It doesn't mean that I 169 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 1: don't still provide a betting card for any of my 170 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:49,520 Speaker 1: followers to view. But as you guys know, prices will 171 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:52,960 Speaker 1: vary between shops. I essentially use a handful of books 172 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 1: that are the most accessible to the public. I will 173 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 1: release those numbers. I will release the prices that I have. 174 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 1: I'm up over three hundred twenty. It's in golf since 175 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:05,840 Speaker 1: twenty seventeen, providing information for sites like Action Network. However, 176 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:08,559 Speaker 1: my real passion and how I tried to grow this 177 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:11,160 Speaker 1: space has come down to figure out how to generate 178 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 1: closing line value for other people. It's one thing when 179 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 1: you tail a pick, but it's a whole different ball 180 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 1: game when you can run numbers of your own and 181 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:22,600 Speaker 1: land on answers without someone else's help. So we talked 182 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 1: about my database a little bit of information. I update 183 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 1: that weekly. I release my golf model on Twitter for 184 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 1: someone to use themselves. Two things happen there. One, you 185 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:35,080 Speaker 1: can see where I stand on any player in the field. 186 00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 1: I'm a person that solely trusts my math in every 187 00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 1: single situation. I'm not a prototypical golf guy. I didn't 188 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 1: play golf growing up. This is a mathematical answer that 189 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,559 Speaker 1: I get with it, and there's no hidden punches when 190 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 1: you see my model, like what you have is what 191 00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:52,559 Speaker 1: you get with it. And then two, I have added 192 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:55,000 Speaker 1: a feature where anybody out there that has access to 193 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 1: my model can make a copy of it to see 194 00:10:57,280 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 1: where their numbers might set for the week. So I 195 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 1: think that helps lead a better path for sustainable growth 196 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 1: for any better out there. And really that's been my 197 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 1: goal in this space from day one, is peach people 198 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,960 Speaker 1: how to become better betters for themselves rather than just 199 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 1: being the person that solely helts a pick where numbers 200 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:18,000 Speaker 1: are going to move. And we obviously have all those 201 00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:21,079 Speaker 1: back end problems that come into place. So that's kind 202 00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 1: of been my passion since entering this side of the 203 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 1: space since twenty seventeen, which I guess, according to you guys, 204 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:29,560 Speaker 1: would make me like, you know, like ten years old. 205 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 1: So a couple of things number one at either or 206 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:38,880 Speaker 1: anything you said after you said you bought the odds 207 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 1: when you were about twelve years old. Yeah, but let's 208 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,559 Speaker 1: say I was listening. It's almost like the way you're 209 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:49,280 Speaker 1: giving stuff away, you're a veritable robin hood of golf betting. 210 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 1: I want people to find success here. It's very important 211 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:57,439 Speaker 1: to me. I've had my run in the sports betting 212 00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:00,680 Speaker 1: world with it. Like I made a switch three years ago, 213 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 1: so I was handicapping all sports and as I said, 214 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:05,319 Speaker 1: I'm in Vegas, so it's like a very nice central 215 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 1: spot to be for the gambling mecca of the world there. 216 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 1: But I made a switch three years ago where I 217 00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 1: wanted to become one hundred percent full time on the 218 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:15,320 Speaker 1: golf side of things. And you know that's where this 219 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:18,160 Speaker 1: content creation and releasing of the models and some of 220 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 1: that has kind of blown up into the aspect that 221 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: it has. And you talked about it a second ago, Chad, 222 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:27,320 Speaker 1: like winning the FSWA Golf Writer of the Year obviously 223 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 1: propelled me to a different perspective here to where it 224 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 1: allows me to do a show with you. It allowed 225 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,040 Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell to be able to find me to bring 226 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:38,720 Speaker 1: me on to action networks, So you know, like Simon 227 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 1: was saying at the beginning of this, also, it's one 228 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: of those situations where nobody just pops up in is 229 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:46,560 Speaker 1: all of a sudden good. There's growing pains that you 230 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 1: have to learn with. I'd like to think that I 231 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 1: was naturally I guess better and had more understanding than 232 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 1: maybe like like this was my calling in life to 233 00:12:56,360 --> 00:13:00,560 Speaker 1: do this, But even still, I don't know one percent 234 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 1: of the gambler at thirteen years old than I am 235 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:05,320 Speaker 1: right now at thirty three years old. And there's just 236 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 1: so many tricks of the trades and so many things 237 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 1: that you learn over the course of time. Tell us 238 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 1: a little bit about your model before we get into 239 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:18,520 Speaker 1: some picks. Yeah, so I run things from a longer 240 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 1: duration of time than I think most people do out there. 241 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 1: I run it from a two year regression standpoint with it, 242 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 1: so I will update that every single night. I'm not 243 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:29,720 Speaker 1: a real big course history person when it comes to golf. 244 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:32,559 Speaker 1: Obviously you get the current form and the course history 245 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:35,160 Speaker 1: thrown into the model. And that's kind of goes back 246 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 1: to what I was talking about, Like anybody can make 247 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 1: a copy of the model. They can change the weights 248 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 1: however they want, so then they can get their own 249 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 1: answers to it. But I'm a very course specific person, 250 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:47,960 Speaker 1: so I am building every single model to specifically try 251 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:50,360 Speaker 1: to mimic a course. I guess that would be the 252 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 1: answer that you would give for football, of trying to 253 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:55,439 Speaker 1: build it against a defense or you know, a specific 254 00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:58,200 Speaker 1: skill set of these golfers that fit the venue well. 255 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 1: But I mean it has been my ace in the 256 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 1: whole that I have been using for I mean, I 257 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,080 Speaker 1: guess we're at ten years of it now, but I 258 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 1: mean I would say within the last like the last 259 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 1: seven to ten years, this model has kind of taken 260 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 1: on a mind of its own where this is my 261 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 1: sole answer of everything with it. And I mean for 262 00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 1: every gambler, you have your secret sauce of how you 263 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:23,960 Speaker 1: run your numbers, and you're going to trust your data 264 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 1: at the end of the day with it obviously, as 265 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:27,880 Speaker 1: you guys know, you're not going to be talked out 266 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 1: of an answer when your numbers. Say one thing, now, 267 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 1: how is betting the Master's different than betting the other tournaments? 268 00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:35,320 Speaker 1: Is there a key to the masters at so much 269 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 1: different than the other I mean, we can call them 270 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 1: the other three majors, but you know you're factoring your 271 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 1: model in the different courses. Does that plan into a 272 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 1: factor that you know, it's the masters of the same 273 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 1: spot every year. Being in the same spot every single 274 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 1: year is really the key answer to this. Like golf 275 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 1: is a growing sport, but it still has a niche audience. 276 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 1: We will see that change over the next five years 277 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:58,160 Speaker 1: as people realize golf tournaments are, in my opinion, the 278 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 1: ultimate gambling event since you get action and countless markets. Yeah, 279 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:04,720 Speaker 1: four days of excitement on gambling on the event from 280 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:08,360 Speaker 1: a pre tournament and in tournament perspective, obviously, anytime you 281 00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 1: talk about Tiger Woods playing an event, that's going to 282 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 1: help raise the excitement level for everybody out there. But yeah, 283 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 1: I mean, I think what you see is what you 284 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:18,120 Speaker 1: get with Augusta when I ran it from a weighted 285 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 1: perspective and I said, I'm not a person that puts 286 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 1: a lot of statistical course history into my model. Thirty 287 00:15:24,200 --> 00:15:26,280 Speaker 1: percent of my weight this weekend, my model does come 288 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 1: from a course history perspective, so it means something. And 289 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 1: there's just certain expectations that have been extremely pronounced when 290 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 1: we dive into this venue from a statistical perspective, I 291 00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 1: think you have wide open fairways. They're nearly twenty yards extended, 292 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:43,000 Speaker 1: and with on average, that's going to present this feel 293 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:45,160 Speaker 1: of a course that is I mean, I call it 294 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:48,560 Speaker 1: a long driver's paradise. I'm not so sure necessarily how 295 00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:50,000 Speaker 1: much I want to go into that, and we'll talk 296 00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:51,840 Speaker 1: about both ends of this answer here in a second, 297 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 1: but I would say that particular skill will only take 298 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 1: you so far because of the massive undulation and multiple 299 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 1: tiered perspective of the putting surfaces on all eighteen holes 300 00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 1: that we have. That's really more of where the experience 301 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 1: comes into play, and that's why we've seen players like 302 00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 1: Tiger Finds such success here. They just know where they 303 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 1: can miss. They know every single caveat of how these 304 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 1: greens will roll out. All of that's one of the 305 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 1: reasons that the long term data has generated a six 306 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:23,320 Speaker 1: point five percent enhancement when we look into the dispersion 307 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 1: of scoring for stroke skin around the green. Now, I 308 00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 1: don't want to make that sound like it's a death 309 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:30,600 Speaker 1: sentence for your game. I do think that if you're 310 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 1: not good in that area, you're going to have to 311 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 1: be elite in other areas. If you want to get 312 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 1: accustomed to its unique layout here. But for me, it's 313 00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 1: overall a sharp short game that can scramble and salvage scores. 314 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 1: I think three put avoidance on these fiery greens will 315 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:48,720 Speaker 1: be out of premium. And then the one thing I 316 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:51,120 Speaker 1: want to talk about with distance, because I think you 317 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 1: can make an argument that it might be a little 318 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:55,920 Speaker 1: bit more impactful here. Obviously we have a long course 319 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 1: to begin with, you have these wide open fairways. But 320 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:01,160 Speaker 1: really the answer to me comes down to it's a 321 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:05,320 Speaker 1: wetter Augusta than we have gotten in years past. There 322 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:07,159 Speaker 1: has been some changes that have been made to a 323 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:09,719 Speaker 1: few of these holes. There might be more of a 324 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:12,960 Speaker 1: prerequisite for distance here than we have historically gotten in 325 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:15,480 Speaker 1: the past. And I know most people that run their 326 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 1: model are like very heavily weighted into the distance category. 327 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:22,880 Speaker 1: I'm never one that gets asked stuck into that loop here, 328 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 1: But I did add an extra couple percent because of 329 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:29,800 Speaker 1: that reason. Are you a math genius? Like, how do 330 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 1: you get into modeling? How are you building algorithms? How 331 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:39,080 Speaker 1: are you deciding what percentage to put on each kpi? 332 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:41,600 Speaker 1: For lack of a better term, I go back and 333 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 1: look at all the historical data and I try to 334 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 1: kind of backtrack a model to see what historically has 335 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 1: been pronounced at a venue in the past. And that's 336 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:52,359 Speaker 1: kind of where I believe I have my edges. You 337 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:55,480 Speaker 1: look at all these venues in every single course requires 338 00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:57,719 Speaker 1: something different. You have some venues where distance is going 339 00:17:57,760 --> 00:17:59,840 Speaker 1: to be the prerequisite answer that you want. You're going 340 00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:02,639 Speaker 1: to some courses where the proximity from one hundred to 341 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:05,120 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty yards might be. And I'm able 342 00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 1: to go back and find a dispersion of scoring totals 343 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:10,920 Speaker 1: that I run inside my database of this is where 344 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:12,960 Speaker 1: the top ten of the field have gained their strokes. 345 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:16,720 Speaker 1: This is where you know players that have found trouble 346 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:19,120 Speaker 1: have had those errors occur for them with it. So 347 00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:21,119 Speaker 1: it's a lot of trial and error, it's a lot 348 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 1: of back testing of these models to do it. But 349 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 1: I mean to give you an answer there from the 350 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 1: mass side of the equation, Like I'm self thought, is 351 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:31,479 Speaker 1: this is something that I've been doing for twenty years, 352 00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:35,199 Speaker 1: where this isn't just some overnight thing that I threw together, 353 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 1: Like there's been a lot of thought that has gone 354 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 1: into what is the optimal way to build a model 355 00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:43,879 Speaker 1: here and to me, every single course as a unique 356 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 1: aspect of how you're trying to build it. So if 357 00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:50,480 Speaker 1: you can find that answer and look like golf as 358 00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:54,400 Speaker 1: a whole, I think they've become more sophisticated because if 359 00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:56,159 Speaker 1: we look at golf, like I said, it's such a 360 00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 1: niche market at the end of the day, but like 361 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 1: through a hundred head to head bets, from like a 362 00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 1: two year perspective of me releasing numbers, I was picking 363 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,880 Speaker 1: over sixty percent on like plus one hundred sort of wagers. Now, 364 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 1: I think as markets become more sophisticated, obviously those numbers 365 00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 1: start to decrease a little bit. And we've seen that 366 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:19,240 Speaker 1: from a book perspective, where shops are getting smarter at 367 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:21,480 Speaker 1: the end of the day. But there's still enough of 368 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 1: an edge in my eyes to where like the unique 369 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 1: deviations of how I build a model, I'm able to 370 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,960 Speaker 1: find some answers that are different and specifically from a 371 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:33,439 Speaker 1: head to head perspective, like that's my bread and butter market. 372 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:39,680 Speaker 1: All right, Well, that's a good transition. So I want 373 00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:44,120 Speaker 1: to let's talk about head to head. If you have 374 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:48,720 Speaker 1: some really thoughtful, smart, exciting head to head bets that 375 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:50,920 Speaker 1: we should be looking out for. Yeah, so I'll give 376 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:54,160 Speaker 1: two on here. I always recommend trying to find opponents 377 00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 1: that you want to fade in golf over ones that 378 00:19:56,840 --> 00:19:59,240 Speaker 1: you want to back. I think the reason for that 379 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:02,239 Speaker 1: is it gives you multiple paths to be correct. Like, 380 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:04,359 Speaker 1: of course, we're still trying to find value in the 381 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 1: player that we are using against our fade candidate, but 382 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 1: I think it's worth talking about who some of the 383 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:12,520 Speaker 1: most overrated golfers were in my model in various aspects 384 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,719 Speaker 1: for this tournament. You know, golf is a lot different 385 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 1: than other sports, whether you like, you can name any sport. 386 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:22,359 Speaker 1: We don't have set matchups from book to book. Every 387 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 1: single book is going to provide different matchups. And that's 388 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 1: another reason why I release my model for everybody is 389 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:29,159 Speaker 1: what I have available to me might not be what 390 00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 1: somebody else has available to them. So I'm just going 391 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 1: to mention some of these players that were overrated in 392 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,400 Speaker 1: my model. And you know, if anybody's out there's listening, 393 00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:38,679 Speaker 1: you can use this however you want with it. But 394 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:40,919 Speaker 1: this is in order from the most overrated. From a 395 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:44,119 Speaker 1: price standpoint too, I guess down to like these are 396 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:49,200 Speaker 1: the top couple here, so most overrated, Sergio Garcia, Brooks, Kepka, 397 00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:52,440 Speaker 1: Meto Pereira, Hammeron Young, who I do want to get 398 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:57,199 Speaker 1: to in a second, Billy Horschel and Corey Connors. You know, 399 00:20:57,280 --> 00:21:00,280 Speaker 1: I think from a Sergio Garcia perspective or gonna have 400 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:02,800 Speaker 1: to shop around to find this number, but I've seen 401 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:05,439 Speaker 1: plus prices out there for Tiger Woods to take them on. 402 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:08,439 Speaker 1: And this is a really weird answer, guys for me 403 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,320 Speaker 1: to give because I am not one that finds myself 404 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:14,320 Speaker 1: playing Tiger very often because of the public bias that 405 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,919 Speaker 1: influences the market. Although I had the price there to 406 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,200 Speaker 1: be one thirty, so I think Tiger has actually been 407 00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 1: negatively influenced for some reasons there. But I'm gonna talk 408 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,200 Speaker 1: about a wager that you can find over on fan 409 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,719 Speaker 1: duel with one of those players that I just talked about. 410 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,480 Speaker 1: And this price opened at plus one o two. We've 411 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:34,720 Speaker 1: seen it moved to minus one ten over the past 412 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 1: twelve hours. You know, as always shop around, but we 413 00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 1: have this really, I guess I would call it super 414 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:45,960 Speaker 1: high ceiling with this terribly low mixed floor for Cameron 415 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:49,560 Speaker 1: Young against Jason Day here, So I have some concerns 416 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:53,400 Speaker 1: with my model with Cameron Young. I understand the intrigue 417 00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 1: for him because of the weighted proximity total in my 418 00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:59,640 Speaker 1: model that grades him six to mimic the historical data 419 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:04,080 Speaker 1: at the track. We also get this intoxicating off the 420 00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:08,280 Speaker 1: t return that place is fifth. Those two things spectacular, 421 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:10,920 Speaker 1: that's the good end of that, and that's what everybody's 422 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:14,200 Speaker 1: seeing right now with him. But I think most people 423 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,920 Speaker 1: in the space are ignoring his short game that has 424 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:21,920 Speaker 1: the potential to absolutely implode on these tricky green complexes. 425 00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:24,119 Speaker 1: So I'll talk about some of the numbers that in 426 00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,719 Speaker 1: my model that I've been alluding to. So out of 427 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,879 Speaker 1: eighty seven out of eighty something golfers in this field, 428 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:34,240 Speaker 1: he ranked fifty eighth and waded around the green seventy 429 00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:38,119 Speaker 1: second and waited putting sixty fourth in three put avoidance, 430 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:41,600 Speaker 1: and seventy third in sand safe percentage. That's putting him 431 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,159 Speaker 1: right near the bottom of all those critical metrics of 432 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 1: how to salvage par in these spots. Like obviously, if 433 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 1: he strikes the driver and iron to the point where 434 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 1: he doesn't make errors, this can work. But I think 435 00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:55,760 Speaker 1: from a head to head perspective, in golf, like, like 436 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:57,960 Speaker 1: I said, you're always trying to find a fade candidate 437 00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,919 Speaker 1: that you want to take on rather than backing that 438 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 1: high end results. And like the one thing Cameron Young 439 00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 1: has going for him is it's a reduced size field. 440 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 1: I think, in like a vacuum situation here, a lot 441 00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 1: of golf tournaments are one hundred forty, one hundred and 442 00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:17,560 Speaker 1: fifty something people. I work off a miscut equity, and 443 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 1: I think some of that gets marginally reduced in this 444 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:23,440 Speaker 1: spot just because we're talking about an eighty something player 445 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,520 Speaker 1: field where top fifty and ties make it. What that 446 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:29,560 Speaker 1: number exactly will be, you can make an argument for 447 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,399 Speaker 1: with it, but you know roughly sixty five percent of 448 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,240 Speaker 1: the field will make the weekend. I'm trying to find 449 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:38,160 Speaker 1: that volatility on the negative sense of this, and like 450 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,879 Speaker 1: Sergio for one, kind of just my model thinks he's 451 00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:42,880 Speaker 1: going to miss the cut to begin with, and then 452 00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 1: Cameron Young, I'm hoping that you get one of these 453 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:47,960 Speaker 1: negative days from him over the course of four days, 454 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:49,879 Speaker 1: and if it comes during the first two days, he 455 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 1: misses the weekend like he did last year. So you know, 456 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,679 Speaker 1: it's not my two favorite head to head wagers just 457 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,320 Speaker 1: because we get a reduced size field. But I do 458 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,760 Speaker 1: think they're too treating spots where you're getting about twenty 459 00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:03,920 Speaker 1: points of value of where the market current bleeds at. 460 00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,320 Speaker 1: Dad in another life, I always wanted to be a 461 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:10,320 Speaker 1: weather man. That's honestly who I wanted to do. And 462 00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:12,280 Speaker 1: I have the weirdest guy every where. I have a 463 00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:14,920 Speaker 1: job that all people care about the results. They want winners. 464 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:17,800 Speaker 1: A weather man people literally do not care about the results. 465 00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:20,360 Speaker 1: They're usually always wrong. I want to know how he's 466 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:22,200 Speaker 1: gonna factor in this weather here, Like you said, your 467 00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,080 Speaker 1: updated your model based off what's going on the weather, 468 00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 1: and you know you're tweaking your distance formula, whatever it is, 469 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:31,159 Speaker 1: just go, you know we could have crazy win or 470 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,159 Speaker 1: wins or whatever it is. How hard is that in golf? 471 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,760 Speaker 1: Because in football, honestly, me and Chad keep it simple stupid. 472 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:39,800 Speaker 1: There's bad weather, we usually go with the dog, especially 473 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,160 Speaker 1: if it's a home dog. We'll just take the points right. 474 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:44,560 Speaker 1: Usually that's gonna work out for you. In golf, is 475 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 1: there anything a little easier like that? Where Okay, I 476 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,480 Speaker 1: got a guy that I know can drive it over 477 00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:51,840 Speaker 1: three hundred yards? Is that the guy you usually should 478 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,000 Speaker 1: back then rather than the guy that needs you know, 479 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,480 Speaker 1: needs a clear day, or there's some guys that just 480 00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 1: play better in different weather. How does your model really 481 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:00,880 Speaker 1: factor into that kind of stuff. I mean, I will 482 00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:02,800 Speaker 1: more so if I was trying to look at it. 483 00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:04,320 Speaker 1: I think when we were talking about a wet course, 484 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 1: distance is a way to add a little bit more 485 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:09,720 Speaker 1: to the equation there. I'm not a person that overly 486 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,600 Speaker 1: weighs whether and I'm going to give an answer for that, 487 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,080 Speaker 1: for the reason behind it. So golf is one of 488 00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:18,359 Speaker 1: those unique sports, like when you see in football, for example, 489 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,080 Speaker 1: they're gonna be playing if there's ten inches of snow. 490 00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:22,840 Speaker 1: They're going out there, they'll try to get it. They're 491 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:26,320 Speaker 1: gonna go play. In golf rounds get stopped, and you know, 492 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,280 Speaker 1: we can make an argument for what that reason is, 493 00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:30,919 Speaker 1: or you know what's going on with some of these spots. 494 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:35,040 Speaker 1: But I always believe that weather delays are a really 495 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 1: big situation that can occur in golf. And I never 496 00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:41,360 Speaker 1: want to build a model that is so stuck on 497 00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:44,959 Speaker 1: this mindset that you know, you have to have distance 498 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:46,879 Speaker 1: because it's wet, or you have to be a good 499 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,040 Speaker 1: win player, like when I throw wind into my model. 500 00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 1: I throw it in from a very rudimentary sense of it, 501 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,240 Speaker 1: where everybody kind of gets an equal weight. And that's 502 00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:58,440 Speaker 1: just my basic computation of the data of how I'm 503 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:00,880 Speaker 1: going to do it. I don't really go in and 504 00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,200 Speaker 1: try to big brain that portion of the game, like 505 00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:04,919 Speaker 1: I might be trying to big brain some of this 506 00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,239 Speaker 1: other stuff with how I'm running it. But there's so 507 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:09,960 Speaker 1: many stops and goes with golf that I actually tend 508 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:13,600 Speaker 1: to find that in general, when weather becomes an issue 509 00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:16,359 Speaker 1: a lot of times, and maybe this is my version 510 00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 1: of taking a dog in the spot, I think the 511 00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:21,520 Speaker 1: public overreacts in these situations, and a lot of times 512 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 1: you can get inflated numbers on prices that you shouldn't 513 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,080 Speaker 1: have gotten because of that, and all this weather that 514 00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:28,600 Speaker 1: you thought was going to be a problem for one 515 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:30,960 Speaker 1: half of the field all of a sudden doesn't become 516 00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 1: the case, and now you flip the script of what's 517 00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:36,320 Speaker 1: happening there. So it's a very simplistic sense of how 518 00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:38,119 Speaker 1: I'm building it. But I try not to get stuck 519 00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:39,960 Speaker 1: in any one way or the other. But like, do 520 00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:41,840 Speaker 1: you worry if you have a futures bet, like say 521 00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,280 Speaker 1: someone like me. I mean, we can talk about later on. 522 00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:46,520 Speaker 1: But Jason Day is a guy like for the Masters, 523 00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:50,760 Speaker 1: if he's coming in Sunday, right, he's playing later in 524 00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 1: the day, and the guys are playing earlier day, they 525 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,399 Speaker 1: don't have any rain or any weather. Do you usually 526 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:57,360 Speaker 1: hedge out of those future bets where I know Jason 527 00:26:57,440 --> 00:26:59,520 Speaker 1: Day's playing later in the day, he might be playing 528 00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 1: in some own wet weather. Is that again just because 529 00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:04,840 Speaker 1: we're expecting a lot of rain they're predicting now for 530 00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,160 Speaker 1: this matter's weekend. Is that something where you would get 531 00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:10,280 Speaker 1: out of position just because okay, there's too much unpredictability 532 00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:12,600 Speaker 1: now where the guys early in the day are getting 533 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:15,320 Speaker 1: a nice course, the ball is gonna land different, it's 534 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:17,360 Speaker 1: gonna roll different than the guy's playing later in the day, 535 00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:19,520 Speaker 1: where right it might be heavy greens, a ball might 536 00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:21,960 Speaker 1: stick more. You fact that it you don't factor in 537 00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:23,399 Speaker 1: at all, like when you're trying to make a bet 538 00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,760 Speaker 1: on Sunday or a hedge anything. I will. But I 539 00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,040 Speaker 1: think the problem is is you don't have those clean 540 00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:30,600 Speaker 1: exit points like you would have in other sports here 541 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:33,720 Speaker 1: because like let's say Jason Day is in contention coming 542 00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:36,560 Speaker 1: into Sunday and you think that there's a weather edge 543 00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:38,280 Speaker 1: and the guys early in the morning are going to 544 00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:40,480 Speaker 1: be able to post a total where all the leaders 545 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:42,879 Speaker 1: are going off the course and they find themselves in 546 00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,960 Speaker 1: this difficult situation where they're going to struggle to me 547 00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,360 Speaker 1: more of the hedge situation in that spot isn't technically 548 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:50,880 Speaker 1: even a hedge. I mean, you could find value down 549 00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:52,639 Speaker 1: the board based off of the numbers that I'm running 550 00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:55,359 Speaker 1: on a different golfer, but there's never really that clean 551 00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:59,119 Speaker 1: spot because most of these situations you're looking at a 552 00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,520 Speaker 1: leaderboard where I don't know, I mean, you have fifteen 553 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:03,639 Speaker 1: to twenty players that are all within a couple shots 554 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:07,000 Speaker 1: of the lead. You're never going to get that prototypical 555 00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,200 Speaker 1: spot where you can say, I am going to get 556 00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:11,720 Speaker 1: out of this position that I'm in and I'm going 557 00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:14,400 Speaker 1: to go into this spot like there's too many players. 558 00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:17,439 Speaker 1: The win equity in that spot is so scattered across 559 00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:20,199 Speaker 1: the board that it's hard to ever find anybody in 560 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,359 Speaker 1: a position where you're going to reach like that fifty 561 00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:25,680 Speaker 1: percent number to where you can take the field versus them, 562 00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:27,600 Speaker 1: like that's the easiest way to go about it if 563 00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:29,720 Speaker 1: you're trying to go that route. But no, I think 564 00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,040 Speaker 1: golf is different in that sense that you don't necessarily 565 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:34,840 Speaker 1: have those exit points that you're looking for, And I 566 00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:37,159 Speaker 1: think once you start trying to find those exit points, 567 00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:39,840 Speaker 1: you kind of run yourself into an overexposure with your 568 00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:42,960 Speaker 1: card just because you start like littering the board in 569 00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 1: all these spots where you know it's fine to take 570 00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:47,360 Speaker 1: some dart throws of players that you think might have 571 00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:49,520 Speaker 1: a weather edge in the early morning that can make 572 00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:51,720 Speaker 1: a run, but you also can't get out of a 573 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,400 Speaker 1: position of where you're at. So you know, I think 574 00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:57,160 Speaker 1: outright betting in general and golf like obviously you can 575 00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:00,440 Speaker 1: hit big winners there, but it's extremely high. I hold 576 00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 1: percentage volatile market at the end of the day, where 577 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:05,800 Speaker 1: when you make a wager, I'm kind of a person 578 00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:08,000 Speaker 1: that just like this is why I had value. I'm 579 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,800 Speaker 1: sticking on that number. And most of the times, like 580 00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,040 Speaker 1: when I talk to people about hedging out of bets, 581 00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,400 Speaker 1: I tend to believe that when somebody's heading out of 582 00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 1: a golf bet, you're probably placing too much money to 583 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:20,720 Speaker 1: win the tournament to begin with on it, Like I'm 584 00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:22,440 Speaker 1: more of the person that would rather just stick with 585 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,160 Speaker 1: my original stake in hedge on a player to win 586 00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:28,360 Speaker 1: the tournament down the board in that regard. So yeah, 587 00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:30,160 Speaker 1: I mean, I guess that's like a long winded answer 588 00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:33,560 Speaker 1: to say, I don't know if golf has those clean spots. Yeah. 589 00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:38,480 Speaker 1: So we've laid out the differences, We've laid out the field, 590 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:44,600 Speaker 1: We've laid out the weather obstacles. Who are your best bets? 591 00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:47,600 Speaker 1: So I like those two head to head wagers that 592 00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:51,080 Speaker 1: I talked about with Cameron or Jason Day over Cameron 593 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:54,120 Speaker 1: Young and Tiger Woods over Sergio Garcia. I think if 594 00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:56,280 Speaker 1: we're talking about placement bets here, and I'll end this 595 00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:58,479 Speaker 1: with outrights because everybody always wants to at least hear 596 00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:00,360 Speaker 1: the outright winners of who somebody think is going to 597 00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:02,960 Speaker 1: win a tournament. But there's a couple bets inside the 598 00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:07,080 Speaker 1: placement market that I find very intriguing. So all these 599 00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:09,640 Speaker 1: prices can be found over on FanDuel still right now, 600 00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:12,680 Speaker 1: Alex Norn, for me, is a golfer that I think 601 00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,120 Speaker 1: that the long term history at Augusta has been a 602 00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:18,160 Speaker 1: little too heavily waited for him. Like when I look 603 00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:21,479 Speaker 1: at this from a long term win equity standpoint. In 604 00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:24,600 Speaker 1: my model, he's a top twenty five win equity player 605 00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:26,600 Speaker 1: for me, And I mean you can find him to 606 00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:28,560 Speaker 1: win this tournament at three hundred and forty to one. 607 00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,360 Speaker 1: That might be a little bit extreme when we're looking 608 00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:35,040 Speaker 1: at this board, but there's here that's what we want 609 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:36,960 Speaker 1: to hear. Well, it's a shot that you can take. 610 00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:38,960 Speaker 1: And if I'm trying to like back test this when 611 00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:42,160 Speaker 1: I did when Danny Willett won this in twenty sixteen, 612 00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:44,600 Speaker 1: and it took implosions from Jordan's speech and some of 613 00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:46,680 Speaker 1: those players for him to get across the finish line. 614 00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:50,840 Speaker 1: But Norn's skill set was the most similar that I 615 00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:54,360 Speaker 1: could see from a prototypical sense of Danny willet winning here. 616 00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:57,000 Speaker 1: But I think the more tangible way to attack this 617 00:30:57,120 --> 00:31:00,520 Speaker 1: market with Alex Norn, you could take him at to 618 00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:04,600 Speaker 1: come top thirty at plus two forty. I certainly think 619 00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:08,200 Speaker 1: the plus five hundred number to come top twenty is intriguing, 620 00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:12,320 Speaker 1: and then fourteen to one to come top ten, that's 621 00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:14,600 Speaker 1: a bet that I'm just gonna be sprinkling down the 622 00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:18,240 Speaker 1: board there. I kind of generally tend to think that 623 00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:20,920 Speaker 1: Terrell hat In at plus one ninety to come top 624 00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:24,560 Speaker 1: twenty has been a little bit juiced in this spot. 625 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:26,800 Speaker 1: We heard last year how much he hated this course. 626 00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:29,120 Speaker 1: I think when the general public gets that answer that 627 00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:32,080 Speaker 1: a player does not like something, immediately numbers get a 628 00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:35,320 Speaker 1: little juiced in those spots. So I think Hatton's intriguing. 629 00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:38,840 Speaker 1: You know, Fitzpatrick, you could make an argument about, like 630 00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:40,840 Speaker 1: his game is not in the right spot right now, 631 00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:43,680 Speaker 1: but with the way that I'm running my data with it, 632 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:45,880 Speaker 1: like he's a top fifteen win equity player that you 633 00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:47,840 Speaker 1: can get at plus one forty five to come top 634 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:51,800 Speaker 1: twenty on FanDuel. And then I guess from an outright perspective, 635 00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:55,360 Speaker 1: just to talk about some bets here, it's a unique 636 00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:58,600 Speaker 1: situation we have here. So this is not the prototypical 637 00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,160 Speaker 1: answer that I'd give. I want to kind of give 638 00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:05,880 Speaker 1: this caveat before. So the Masters isn't a conventional tournament. 639 00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:09,440 Speaker 1: It enhances win probability the more you play it, but 640 00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:13,040 Speaker 1: then it decreases the win equity when discussing an experience 641 00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:16,360 Speaker 1: or reaching a certain age for these tournaments, So a 642 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,880 Speaker 1: couple examples here you don't have to look any further 643 00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:21,640 Speaker 1: in that regard than Jack Nicholas being the only golfer 644 00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,960 Speaker 1: to win this tournament over forty five. No first timer 645 00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:28,280 Speaker 1: has won this event since Fuzzy Zeller in nineteen seventy nine. 646 00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:31,640 Speaker 1: So we get this position now where we're talking about 647 00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:35,560 Speaker 1: an eighty man plus field, where about seventeen golfers from 648 00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:39,360 Speaker 1: the amateur perspective, and these past winners that are coming 649 00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:41,640 Speaker 1: back or playing this tournament that like this is not 650 00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:44,760 Speaker 1: a hyperbole over exaggeration part of the answer, they had 651 00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:47,680 Speaker 1: legitimately zero percent win equity in my model, Like my 652 00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:50,920 Speaker 1: model didn't even give them any possibilities. So we're already 653 00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:54,000 Speaker 1: down to a seventy man field just with nothing else 654 00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:57,520 Speaker 1: being said there. I think there's a couple ways to 655 00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,640 Speaker 1: play this, and I guess that's talk about this from 656 00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:03,200 Speaker 1: an implied win probability sense, and then we can move 657 00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:05,640 Speaker 1: from there. Of like some of these names, So when 658 00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:09,960 Speaker 1: we look at Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, John rom my 659 00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:13,600 Speaker 1: model has over thirty percent of the wind implied probability 660 00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:16,920 Speaker 1: on those three golfers. I don't think it necessarily has 661 00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:18,800 Speaker 1: to be those three names when we're talking about placing 662 00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:21,720 Speaker 1: an outright wager. But the same answer continues here when 663 00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:24,200 Speaker 1: we branched this out to eight golfers, I'm about a 664 00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:27,160 Speaker 1: sixty percent win equity on eight players in this field. 665 00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:29,880 Speaker 1: When that's the answer, and this isn't like the answer 666 00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:31,680 Speaker 1: I would typically give. I don't like going to the 667 00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 1: top of the board and creating these massively high juiced 668 00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:37,880 Speaker 1: positions to where you know, like my exposure kind of 669 00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:39,720 Speaker 1: builds in that way that I don't want with it. 670 00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:43,160 Speaker 1: But I have to be honest with you, guys. I 671 00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:47,239 Speaker 1: had McElroy's win probability at about twelve percent. Here it's 672 00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:49,360 Speaker 1: a little slightly above eleven and a half percent if 673 00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,760 Speaker 1: we want to get technical with it. But I think 674 00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:56,000 Speaker 1: the one interesting thing about the Masters in Majors in 675 00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:59,280 Speaker 1: general with it is books are going to be fighting 676 00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:01,360 Speaker 1: for every last dollar here. So if you just start 677 00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:04,200 Speaker 1: price shopping for a number, I don't think you're going 678 00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:07,400 Speaker 1: to necessarily find the eight to one plus like number 679 00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:10,240 Speaker 1: that I'm trying to get everybody onto. But there's boots 680 00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:13,279 Speaker 1: set these books. There's ways that you're going to see 681 00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:16,680 Speaker 1: numbers shift throughout the space. There's a lot of people 682 00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:17,800 Speaker 1: that I've talked to you that have been able to 683 00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:19,920 Speaker 1: get Rory up to ten to one, and I'm sure 684 00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,239 Speaker 1: Fan Duel is going to run promotions throughout the week 685 00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,440 Speaker 1: to where some of those numbers will increase with it. 686 00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:28,279 Speaker 1: But this is where Simon, I think some of this 687 00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:32,120 Speaker 1: weather stuff does come into my model and where I 688 00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:33,959 Speaker 1: ended up getting a switch with some of my dada 689 00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:36,759 Speaker 1: here which pushed macl right up even further. So not 690 00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:39,080 Speaker 1: only is a Gusta playing softer than it ever has 691 00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:41,160 Speaker 1: because of all the rain, but he was a top 692 00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:44,160 Speaker 1: ranked player in my model when we looked at rainy conditions. 693 00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:46,239 Speaker 1: He was also the top rank golfer in my model 694 00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:49,839 Speaker 1: when given any iteration of the math that I wanted 695 00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:52,920 Speaker 1: to run, so that was in any weather thing that 696 00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:55,680 Speaker 1: you could possibly imagine. When I ran it for dry conditions, 697 00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:57,760 Speaker 1: he was number one. When I ran it for wet conditions, 698 00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:00,279 Speaker 1: he was number one. I just think that this is 699 00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,400 Speaker 1: the year that Rory finally captures the career Grand Slam, 700 00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,880 Speaker 1: and usually in my model, that's not the answer that 701 00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:10,360 Speaker 1: I give, because that three put avoidance for him is 702 00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:13,680 Speaker 1: a really scary proposition where he runs himself into problems 703 00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:16,759 Speaker 1: with this tournament. Top ten in my model this year 704 00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,719 Speaker 1: for three put avoidance. That's the highest he has ever 705 00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:22,120 Speaker 1: graded for me. And then he is number one across 706 00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:24,399 Speaker 1: the board in most of these other spots. So, as 707 00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:27,160 Speaker 1: I said, like seven to one is technically proper, you 708 00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:29,000 Speaker 1: might need to get cued in some of these spots 709 00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:31,480 Speaker 1: to where you might need to get a boost with 710 00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:33,560 Speaker 1: these situations with it. I know that's not like the 711 00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,440 Speaker 1: prototypical answer that I would want to go to at 712 00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:38,239 Speaker 1: the top of the board here. I would rather be 713 00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:41,879 Speaker 1: sprinkling all a bunch of options lower beneath here. But 714 00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:44,560 Speaker 1: it's a tough spot when eight players have sixty percent 715 00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:46,160 Speaker 1: of a win equity. It's just how do you want 716 00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:48,680 Speaker 1: to split up that pie between those eight players? And 717 00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:52,439 Speaker 1: to me, Rory is really the only one that had 718 00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:55,160 Speaker 1: value other than if you want to talk about Tony 719 00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,680 Speaker 1: than now when he was twenty nine to one on 720 00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:02,560 Speaker 1: fan duel, and unfortunately that number has dropped precipitously over 721 00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:05,279 Speaker 1: the past, you know, twelve to twenty four hours. So 722 00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:07,680 Speaker 1: I think it's a patience game at the end of 723 00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:09,360 Speaker 1: the day to try to find some of these spots. 724 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,960 Speaker 1: Spencer is playing a different game than most professional golf betters. 725 00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:15,680 Speaker 1: You know what, I'm saying, yeah, and he's this is 726 00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:22,279 Speaker 1: a inside the rope's professional betting to listen to you twice, Right, 727 00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:23,920 Speaker 1: You're gonna listen to it once and then go back 728 00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:25,719 Speaker 1: and like, wait, what was that? He sacre A lot 729 00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:27,960 Speaker 1: of a lot of bread crumbs he's dropping in here 730 00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:29,799 Speaker 1: for people if they would, especially whant to build a 731 00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:32,239 Speaker 1: model for golf. Yeah, a lot of really good info. 732 00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:36,440 Speaker 1: This isn't this is next level stuff. Spencer, listen. I 733 00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:39,040 Speaker 1: hope you do great on your toe roportion at your 734 00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:41,840 Speaker 1: b mitzvah, You're gonna look very handsome frends here. If 735 00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:44,839 Speaker 1: you can give us a condensed form of his favorite outrights, 736 00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:48,120 Speaker 1: that'd be huge. I think the best value on the 737 00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:51,960 Speaker 1: board I had proper number on Tony Fenel at twenty 738 00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:54,040 Speaker 1: two to one. I believe you can shop around and 739 00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:57,160 Speaker 1: find that very easily in the space. And then if 740 00:36:57,160 --> 00:36:59,520 Speaker 1: you could get Rory at anything eight nine or ten 741 00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:01,520 Speaker 1: to one or above, I think that that's a very 742 00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:05,880 Speaker 1: intriguing price there. Thanks for coming on the Favorites podcast. 743 00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:10,160 Speaker 1: You were awesome. Get Spencer on links and locks. He's 744 00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:13,839 Speaker 1: doing great work. I agree with you, Simon, there's so 745 00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:18,880 Speaker 1: much thoughtful insight into what he said about matchups and 746 00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:21,320 Speaker 1: how to think about betting golf, not just the Masters. 747 00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:26,080 Speaker 1: Totally phenomenal. G Thank you, Simon. I'm gonna remind people 748 00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:29,160 Speaker 1: if you want to listen to the Favorites, we are 749 00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,600 Speaker 1: leaving the Herd Feed. Everything else to staying the same 750 00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:34,320 Speaker 1: with Volume. We love working with Volume. Still going to 751 00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:36,080 Speaker 1: be on apps, still going to be on YouTube, still 752 00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:37,920 Speaker 1: going to be guests on the shows, but we are 753 00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:39,880 Speaker 1: leaving the herd Feed. If you want to listen to 754 00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:43,440 Speaker 1: the Favorites, you got to subscribe directly to the Favorites. 755 00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:49,040 Speaker 1: Rate review, subscribe, subscribe, subscribe, leave us five stars, say 756 00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:52,279 Speaker 1: whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. 757 00:37:52,640 --> 00:38:01,719 Speaker 1: I love you. Action Network reminds you please gambler responsibly. 758 00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:04,920 Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 759 00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:08,240 Speaker 1: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred 760 00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:08,680 Speaker 1: Gambler