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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 3: Hello and welcome to the Action Network podcast presented by BET'MGM.

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Speaker 3: I'm Sean Zarrillo, joined today by Billy Ward. We're gonna

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Speaker 3: help you break down UFC Vegas eighty seven at the

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Speaker 3: Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Got to be clear

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Speaker 3: off the bat, this is not a good card, folks.

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Speaker 3: This is probably the worst card I've seen from the

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Speaker 3: UFC in a few years. But that doesn't mean we

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Speaker 3: don't have things to bet on. However, this is also

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Speaker 3: a very difficult betting card, a lot of favorites minus

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Speaker 3: three hundred or higher.

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Speaker 4: One of the most.

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Speaker 3: Heavily juiced favorite cards I've seen in quite some time

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Speaker 3: as well, and in the past few weeks. Past few

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Speaker 3: UFC cards favorites outside to the comain and main events

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Speaker 3: are twenty five and enough, so expecting to see the

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Speaker 3: favorite streak continue here. Maybe there's some underdog that we're

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Speaker 3: gonna find who we like to upset their opponent at

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Speaker 3: odds this weekend, and Billy, we're gonna start out things

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Speaker 3: off to the main event. Jarrezenior Rosenstrike against Shamil Gaziev.

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Speaker 3: Rosenstrike been five rounds on a couple occasions, secure to

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Speaker 3: knockout late in the fifth round in one of.

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Speaker 2: His fights as well.

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Speaker 3: Gazyev, I believe has never been out of his second

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Speaker 3: round in his professional career.

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Speaker 2: He is the big favorite in this matchup.

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Speaker 3: Not a big favorite in this matchup, but sitting around

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Speaker 3: minus one seventy five to minus one eighty five some books.

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Speaker 3: Yesterday he was closer to minus one fifty minus one

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Speaker 3: sixty five, so this number has actually gotten bet up

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Speaker 3: a little bit. The over under one and a half

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Speaker 3: sitting at plus money to the over. Gazyev, as I said,

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Speaker 3: does tend to finish his opponents pretty quickly, but Rosenstrike

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Speaker 3: is good at surviving and good at sort of delaying

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Speaker 3: the fight, sculling the fight out until he's able to

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Speaker 3: get it a little bit deeper.

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Speaker 2: Even though his cardio is durability.

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Speaker 3: Isn't quite what it used to be as he continues

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Speaker 3: to age, He's definitely a better striker in this matchup.

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Speaker 3: He's the more powerful striker in this matchup, and if

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Speaker 3: this is on the feet for any extended stretch of time,

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Speaker 3: I think He's absolutely going to be live to pull

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Speaker 3: the upset. Really powerful leg kicks, very powerful hands, and

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Speaker 3: I think he's the cardio advantage too. Gazyev is going

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Speaker 3: to be trying for takedowns early. He might get them.

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Speaker 3: He's probably going to get them in the first round,

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Speaker 3: but I don't necessarily think he's going.

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Speaker 2: To finish Girozeno. He's Brazilian jiudjus known.

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Speaker 3: We're near on the level of a guy like jaelaton

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Speaker 3: Omida who's able to quickly finish our Zenia. Doesn't have

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Speaker 3: the same knockout power as a guy like Francis and Ganu,

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Speaker 3: who again was able to quickly finish our Zenia. But

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Speaker 3: he's probably gonna get top position and he's gonna be

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Speaker 3: able to threaten to finish this fight early. I just

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Speaker 3: think jar Zeno is gonna be able to survive for

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Speaker 3: those five minutes, get it to the second round, get

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Speaker 3: it back on the feet, and then potentially look at

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Speaker 3: for a knockout from there. I'm gonna be looking a

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Speaker 3: live bet jar Zino, live after round one, maybe live

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Speaker 3: after round two as well. The longer this fight fight goes,

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Speaker 3: I think the better should play.

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Speaker 2: Out for him. Just considering.

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Speaker 3: You know, we've seen Gazi have extended once went to

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Speaker 3: a split decision and did not look good doing so,

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Speaker 3: and that was just a couple of years ago. So

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Speaker 3: Gazzy have the pre fight justifiable favorite going to be

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Speaker 3: targeting a why bet on giro Z in a rows

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Speaker 3: and strike after round one?

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Speaker 2: After round two?

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Speaker 3: In terms of a bet, I do like the over

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Speaker 3: one and a half was able to find his high

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Speaker 3: as plus one sixty five if you shop around, So

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Speaker 3: make sure to shop for the best number, because you

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Speaker 3: can find as lowest plus one thirty five and his

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Speaker 3: highest plus one sixty five. Billy, I believe you have

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Speaker 3: the same read on this fight as me. You also

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Speaker 3: like it to go longer, and you're actually considering it

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Speaker 3: to go the distance.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I was really glad to see you were seeing

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Speaker 4: the same thing I was with that. It's just gi

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Speaker 4: Zen and rosenstroke. He's got big power and he can

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Speaker 4: knock people out, but he's not looking for it right away.

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Speaker 4: He's not rushing forward trying to throw bombs. And I

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Speaker 4: feel like we have this narrative that Gazy have is

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Speaker 4: this like young prospect that the UC is trying to

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Speaker 4: build up. He's like eighteen months younger than Girozen or

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Speaker 4: rosen Strike, So that doesn't really lend too much credence

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Speaker 4: to the you know, this old withered fighter who's on

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Speaker 4: his last legs against this young prospect. They're both thirty

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Speaker 4: five and thirty six, Like it's similar. The other thing

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Speaker 4: that I think it's almost like we're assuming, we being

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Speaker 4: the general market, that Gaziev is going to take him

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Speaker 4: down and just dominate him on the ground, and I

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Speaker 4: think that's just because he's from Dagistan. I don't think

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Speaker 4: there's really anything on his record in or outside of

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Speaker 4: the UFC that suggests that, Like no takedown attempts or

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Speaker 4: takedowns in his Contender Series fight, although he wanted by submission.

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Speaker 4: That's because his opponent wrestled standing TKO in his first

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Speaker 4: UFC fight. Most of his wins on his record or knockouts.

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Speaker 4: I don't know that we see this massive grappling advantage

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Speaker 4: because he's fighting some guys no one's ever heard of

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Speaker 4: in random regional shows when he's got those submissions. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: I'm with you. It's partially about on both guys respecting

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Speaker 4: the power of each other, playing at a distance, kind

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Speaker 4: of taking their time, and it's partially about on just

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Speaker 4: this one being closer than people think it's going to be.

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Speaker 4: I don't see Ghaziev is just rolling right through someone

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Speaker 4: Roisenstruk was a UFC main eventor before Gaziev ever had

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Speaker 4: like a amateur MMA fight like once that's a pro

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Speaker 4: fight like this is a massive step up for the

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Speaker 4: young fighter. I see what the UFC is doing here.

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Speaker 4: They're trying to make them a thing just because they

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Speaker 4: need anybody at heavyweight to make the division interesting. I

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Speaker 4: don't think rosen strikes at that point in his career

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Speaker 4: out where we can just build build stars off of

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Speaker 4: his name. So love the over one and a half,

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Speaker 4: As you mentioned, small sprinkle on goes to decision at

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Speaker 4: plus seven to fifty. The thought on that is, if

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Speaker 4: it goes over one and a half and we get

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Speaker 4: into the third, fourth rounds, there's some big boys, they

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Speaker 4: get tired. They're just leaning on each other against the

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Speaker 4: fence for the final ten or fifteen minutes. Obviously would

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Speaker 4: prefer to only have three rounds to deal with if

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Speaker 4: we're making that bet. But just as a fun sprinkle

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Speaker 4: on what you mentioned, it's not a great betting card

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Speaker 4: and answer the question that Brendan would be asking here.

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Speaker 4: You know, we say it's a bad fight card to watch.

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Speaker 4: This one's also kind of a bad one to bet

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Speaker 4: with all the heavy favorites. So on a card like

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Speaker 4: this where we don't have a lot to look at, yeah,

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Speaker 4: I'll take a little sprinkle at plus seven to fifty.

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Speaker 2: You interested live in all of Jarseni a little bit.

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Speaker 4: I kind of want to see how it goes. Just

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Speaker 4: we talked about it with a couple fighters last like

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Speaker 4: one guy we know he's got good cardio and jireson

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Speaker 4: you know, Gaz you have. We don't know that he

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Speaker 4: has bad cardio necessarily. It's just more of a question mark.

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Speaker 4: So that's one of those that I'm not gonna come

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Speaker 4: in with the plan on that, but if I see

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Speaker 4: something with it, it's gonna be more of a re

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Speaker 4: read and react as the situation goes. And with this

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Speaker 4: one starting at like noon Eastern time, I'll be bright

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Speaker 4: eyed and bushy tailed for that one. So it's a

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Speaker 4: better live betting spot than some of these that finish

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Speaker 4: it one in the morning. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: The Mexico City card, the way the cardio played out

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Speaker 3: last week kind of interesting. It seemed like fighters who

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Speaker 3: normally tire. We're not tiring quicker or more than they

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Speaker 3: normally do. But the fighters who normally have good cardios

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Speaker 3: seem to be tiring out just as much as the

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Speaker 3: guys who tire. So the cardio dynamics of this fight's

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Speaker 3: kind of played out very interesting this car. This UC

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Speaker 3: card on Saturday does start, as Billy mentioned, one pm Eastern,

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Speaker 3: So got to get those bets in early and at

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Speaker 3: least get to enjoy some of these fights during the daytime.

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Speaker 3: Can still go out and enjoy your night now. Number

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Speaker 3: of underdogs on this card, as we mentioned, gonna see

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Speaker 3: if we could find one that we want to play.

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Speaker 3: In a minute, I have one that I like here

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Speaker 3: at our Friday the night between Mohammed and Makayev and

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Speaker 3: Alex Perez. Billy has on your locker ratings earlier this

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Speaker 3: week you mentioned Makayev it told people to get on

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Speaker 3: him earlier. His line jumped substantially from minus two fifty

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Speaker 3: to minus three fifty something like that. I mean a

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Speaker 3: huge move. I see him sitting as high as minus

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Speaker 3: three seventy five now open closer to minus two seventy five.

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Speaker 3: You know at this price, I think it's getting a

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Speaker 3: little bit disrespectful towards Alex Perez. Plus three hundred or better,

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Speaker 3: I'm probably gonna have to jump in on Perez. Alex

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Speaker 3: Perez is only lost to the best of the best,

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Speaker 3: Davidson Figaredo, Joseph Benavidez, guys who were champions, and Alexander Potosia.

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Speaker 3: He was considered by many to be the best flyweight

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Speaker 3: in the world for a little bit, and he took

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Speaker 3: that fight fight with Figaredo on short notice, which kind of,

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Speaker 3: you know, scars his run and his his ascension up

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Speaker 3: the flyweight rankings. One big issue with this guy's problems mainly,

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Speaker 3: and we need to see weigh ends and how he

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Speaker 3: does today because he struggles to make one hundred and

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Speaker 3: twenty five pounds. He's pulled out of a number of

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Speaker 3: fights either where he didn't make weight or where he

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Speaker 3: wasn't going to make weight leading up to the fight

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Speaker 3: and just sort of canceled about. And he's also had

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Speaker 3: opponents paul out him too. I believe in the past

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Speaker 3: two or three years, Perez has ten canceled bouts and

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Speaker 3: two actual fights, and those fights did not go particularly

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Speaker 3: long either. That's that I think he's the more skilled

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Speaker 3: fighter at this stage of his career. He's the better striker.

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Speaker 3: I think he's the better wrestler. Makaiev is the better

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Speaker 3: submission grappler. Perez, for all of his skills, tends to

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Speaker 3: have a fault in getting submitted.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 3: The thing with Makayev and the reason why I think

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Speaker 3: he's going to lose eventually, he's trailing on the scorecards

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Speaker 3: in his past two fights. He gets takedowns. He has

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Speaker 3: a very aggressive style. He's really good at sticking two

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Speaker 3: opponents and controlling opponents, but he doesn't lay in any

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Speaker 3: ground about And in terms of judges optics, you know

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Speaker 3: the Victor Alto Murano fight last week. You have to

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Speaker 3: actually do something with the takedowns. Now, at this level,

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Speaker 3: at this in MMA scoring in twenty twenty four, you

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Speaker 3: don't get away with just getting takedowns and a holding

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Speaker 3: position or threatening a submission.

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Speaker 2: You actually need to land strikes and do damage.

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Speaker 3: And as a result of that, even though Makaiav was

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Speaker 3: having success in his last two fights, he needed to

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Speaker 3: finish them or he would have lost on scorecards to

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Speaker 3: Malcolm Gordon and Tim Elliott, both of those fighters were

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Speaker 3: ahead at the time Makaia finished them, So I like

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Speaker 3: Perez here on the money line. I like him by

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Speaker 3: decision at plus six hundred. I think if this fight

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Speaker 3: goes the decision, I'd probably favor him to win, and

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Speaker 3: I would for that reason probably look to bet him

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Speaker 3: in decision only markets too. MAKAIAV is getting there, but

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Speaker 3: he just doesn't land enough damage. His knee got shredded

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Speaker 3: two fights back. We don't really talk about that much,

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Speaker 3: but I don't really know what the after effects are from,

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Speaker 3: you know, pre knee injury Mohammed Makayav versus not tapping

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Speaker 3: to a knee bar and getting his knee completely blown

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Speaker 3: out and continuing to fight through that.

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Speaker 2: I don't think this guy is the same athlete that

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Speaker 2: he was two years ago.

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Speaker 3: So somebody's gonna beat mcama Mohammed Makaiyav eventually. I think

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Speaker 3: if he wins this fight, they're gonna give Hi try

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Speaker 3: to get him a title fight against Pantosia at UFC

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Speaker 3: three oh one. I think Pantoser smokes him, but I

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Speaker 3: like Perez to pull the upside on Saturday if he

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Speaker 3: makes weight, and I think dear by decision is pretty

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Speaker 3: good vet as well, so plus six hundred Perez by decision.

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Speaker 3: I agree with the early line movement obviously that Billy got,

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Speaker 3: but at this point I think it's just getting a

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Speaker 3: bit too disrespectful towards Alex Perez. Billy, I know you're

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Speaker 3: on the other side here with Makayev. Tell the people

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Speaker 3: how you break it down differently.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not entirely actually like I would. I certainly

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Speaker 4: wouldn't play his money line at this point either. I'm

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Speaker 4: considering just arbitraging out and taking you know, as big

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Speaker 4: plus money as I can get on Perez and just

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Speaker 4: taking my money either way. But a couple points to

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Speaker 4: the kneebar less than a year ago. That was against

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Speaker 4: Jeff hel Felio's not even two years ago, but he

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Speaker 4: has fought since then. I think because it was a

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Speaker 4: straight knee bar rather than like a rotational lock like

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Speaker 4: a heel hook or something twisting. Those usually aren't quite

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Speaker 4: as bad, and he seemed super flexible, so you can

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Speaker 4: kind of flexible your way out of that one. If

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Speaker 4: you get stuck in a hill hook or anything twisting.

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Speaker 4: It doesn't really matter who you are. Your ligaments, your

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Speaker 4: ligaments can't be flexible, but you know your knee can

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Speaker 4: so that one. I'm not as worried about that. He

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Speaker 4: didn't look as good against Tim Elliott, but nobody looks

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Speaker 4: good against Tim Elliott because he's just such a weirdo.

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Speaker 4: I do agree with you with the way he fights, though,

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Speaker 4: is it's he's going to run into someone where that

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Speaker 4: submission doesn't stick, or someone like him who just powers

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Speaker 4: through the submission and lets you take his arm and

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Speaker 4: that's going to catch up with him. I just don't

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Speaker 4: think that person's Alex Perez. The USC is trying to

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Speaker 4: make Makaya of a title challenger, they need somebody at

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Speaker 4: one twenty five because the second best fighters have both

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Speaker 4: already lost to the champ. Perez is kind of one

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Speaker 4: of those perfect matchups. You know, his three losses, as

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Speaker 4: you mentioned, were all the top contenders. All three losses

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Speaker 4: came on the ground twice by submission, once by ground

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Speaker 4: and pound. If you're trying to pick you know a

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Speaker 4: top five ISH fighter that will make Muhammed Makaye have

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Speaker 4: look good in the safest way possible, it's probably Alex Perez. Honestly,

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Speaker 4: like of all the guys in that range, ranking wise,

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Speaker 4: and especially after they did him no favors given him

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Speaker 4: tim Elliot and last one, they kind of need to

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Speaker 4: put some shineback on. So with all that said, you know,

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Speaker 4: Mackai by submission at plus one fifty, unless he takes

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Speaker 4: a new found interest in ground and pound, he kind

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Speaker 4: of needs a submission to win. Like that should be

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Speaker 4: considerably closer to his money line for all the reasons

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Speaker 4: you just pointed out. So like that at plus money

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Speaker 4: love the Alex Prez decision only line. That's a great

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Speaker 4: read as well. And again, if I had to take

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Speaker 4: a money line side right now, I'd probably be with

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Speaker 4: you on Perez. I think it's close to right now,

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Speaker 4: but probably gone too far in the Machaiv direction.

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Speaker 3: So just to be clear, this card was originally supposed

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Speaker 3: to take place in Saudi Arabia, so you could see

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Speaker 3: all of these fighters from that region, from the Middle

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Speaker 3: Eastern region are heavily juiced up on this card and

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Speaker 3: seem to be given you know, soft winnable matchups. They

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Speaker 3: were the clear A sides in a car that was

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Speaker 3: supposed to take place in the Middle East, so just

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Speaker 3: worthy of consideration. But yeah, I just think the pricing

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Speaker 3: on this fight has blown out a little bit too far.

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Speaker 3: I think Alex Press certainly the value side of plus

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Speaker 3: two ninety. I'll probably wait for plus three hundred. It

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Speaker 3: looks like it will get there. Let's move on to

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Speaker 3: our favorite underdogs of the card. Obviously, I just talked

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Speaker 3: about Alex Perez. I think there's two underdogs though worth

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Speaker 3: actually targeting, that are closer to a pick them fight.

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Speaker 3: Billy is going to talk about one of them, so

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Speaker 3: I will not spoil it, but just note I show

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Speaker 3: you know how I project these fights. I show value

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Speaker 3: on two hunderdogs on this card. One of them is

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Speaker 3: the one Billy's gonna talk about. I'm gonna leave the

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Speaker 3: fight break down to him.

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Speaker 2: I will talk.

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Speaker 3: About Bernardo soap I who's going to be making his

306
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Speaker 3: UFC debut here this fight against Vansius Olivera. Both of

307
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Speaker 3: these guys debutantes. This is what I would bet to

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Speaker 3: be the fight of the night. I know we just

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Speaker 3: talked about Makaia and Perez being the fight of the night.

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Speaker 3: That's the fight with the most implications for future rankings.

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Speaker 3: Makaia of maybe get a title shot, or Prez could

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Speaker 3: even get a title shot off of a winning that

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Speaker 3: matchup Oliver AA and Soapi is gonna be nuts and Venisius.

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Speaker 3: OLIVERA is a guy who's probably gonna win a lot

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Speaker 3: of performance bonuses in the UFC if he sticks around

316
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Speaker 3: very aggressive, no defense, and he has a big size

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Speaker 3: advantage in this fight. And that's that's the one angle

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Speaker 3: that I'm a bit skeptical about betting Soapi here, especially

319
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Speaker 3: right now. Prior to Wayans, the line has come in drastically.

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Speaker 3: I mean Soapi was as high as plus one fifteen

321
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Speaker 3: plus one twenty five, even higher than that plus one thirty.

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Speaker 2: I think came down to a pick him last night.

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Speaker 2: I think it may be out of.

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Speaker 3: It because Olivera's four inch is taller, has a four

325
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Speaker 3: inch reach advantage. When these two line up at Wighans,

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Speaker 3: I think he's just gonna look noticeably bigger. And even

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Speaker 3: though he's the more aggressive fighter, I think Sopi is

328
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Speaker 3: just a much more technical man and trains at All

329
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Speaker 3: Star MMA and Sweden Sam Jim As you know, Hans

330
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Speaker 3: that Trama I have really well trained. I think he's

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Speaker 3: going to have the better game plan. I think he's

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Speaker 3: going to be calmer. I may actually like him from

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Speaker 3: a live betting perspective, because I think he may lose

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Speaker 3: the first round and work his way back into the fight.

335
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Speaker 3: But in terms of guys, I would consider betting at

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Speaker 3: plus money this weekend where I think have a chance,

337
00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:58,640
Speaker 3: you know, to pull off the upset. Obviously the shortest

338
00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:00,680
Speaker 3: utterdog on the car of bernarda so, but I actually

339
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Speaker 3: think he's the value side worth betting in the fight.

340
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Speaker 3: And I have math, you know, I have projections that

341
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Speaker 3: make him a fifty percent bet iness fighter even.

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Speaker 2: A slight favorite.

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Speaker 3: So SOAPI for me the underdog, I may end up

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Speaker 3: playing billy.

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Speaker 2: You're gonna go with.

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Speaker 3: Lowick Rodjabanov, who's actually a fighter that you made your

347
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Speaker 3: best bet against, I believe in his last fight.

348
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Speaker 4: That's true. Wow, that is an incredible callback because ask

349
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Speaker 4: Reverence didn't think anyone.

350
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Speaker 2: Out Robki too much. He just sticks in my mind,

351
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Speaker 2: there you go.

352
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Speaker 4: But yeah, so that I mean, that's a big part

353
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Speaker 4: of it is we've seen Rojabov twice in the UFC.

354
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Speaker 4: Once he got eleven takedowns, got clipped in there, but

355
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Speaker 4: mostly cruise to unanimous decision over Esteban Ribovich. That win

356
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Speaker 4: his age twelve because Ribovich went out and looked really

357
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Speaker 4: good in his follow up fight, and I just think

358
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Speaker 4: ron Besky is really good. Like, Ron Besky smashed him.

359
00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:50,040
Speaker 4: You know, I took him an under two and a

360
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Speaker 4: half cash pretty easily. It plus money in that fight.

361
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Speaker 4: But I just I think that says more about Ron

362
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Speaker 4: Beski than Radbov, who I'm pretty high on as well.

363
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Speaker 4: He's fighting abdul Kareemawati. He's a Contender Series fighter. Al

364
00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:06,360
Speaker 4: Sawadi was a big underdog I'm the Contender Series like

365
00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:09,720
Speaker 4: four or five months ago against George Hardwick, who I

366
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Speaker 4: thought was ridiculously overrated, and that's all it was that. Yeah,

367
00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:17,320
Speaker 4: I couldn't remember exactly how I was, but I know

368
00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:22,200
Speaker 4: it was significant. I think that says more about Hardwick

369
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Speaker 4: being a little bit overvalued than it was like, oh wow,

370
00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:28,040
Speaker 4: abdul Kareamswati is so good. He won a decision, but

371
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Speaker 4: it wasn't like crazy impressive. You know, outstruck him by

372
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Speaker 4: fifteen and got one takedown. That's it the Contender Series, right, Like,

373
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Speaker 4: I don't think this is going to compare the same way.

374
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Speaker 4: So then looking at Radjaball's record, is abdul kream Al

375
00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:44,440
Speaker 4: Sawati closer inability level to Esteban Ribovich or is he

376
00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:47,080
Speaker 4: closer to mataw trom Betsky. I think that's a pretty

377
00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:50,760
Speaker 4: easy question to answer, in that it's generous to say

378
00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:54,120
Speaker 4: he's closer to Ribovich than it is, you know, a

379
00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:56,920
Speaker 4: fair comparison. So getting the kind of plus money we

380
00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:59,280
Speaker 4: are on Rojabov, I think it's actually increased just a

381
00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,760
Speaker 4: little bit throughout the week two. It's moved up and

382
00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:04,439
Speaker 4: down at different points. But yeah, I really like that

383
00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:08,880
Speaker 4: at the price we're seeing now, plus one sixty don't

384
00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,160
Speaker 4: really have a particular method of victory. I could see

385
00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,000
Speaker 4: a knockout is you know, kind of a short, stocky

386
00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:15,159
Speaker 4: guy with some big power, but also likes takedown. So

387
00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:17,160
Speaker 4: plus one sixties is enough for me. I don't feel

388
00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:19,639
Speaker 4: the need to reach on any kind of method of victory.

389
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Speaker 4: Are you seeing anything else on that one that you wanted? Aad?

390
00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:26,000
Speaker 3: So the projections say over their chins to me, you know,

391
00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:29,200
Speaker 3: tend to lean under Roger Bov knocked out six months ago.

392
00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:32,679
Speaker 3: Kareem al Sawati has been knocked out three times in

393
00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:35,000
Speaker 3: his career. You know, normally one hundred and fifty five

394
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:38,800
Speaker 3: pounders with knockouts on their records regionally. I get a

395
00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:40,840
Speaker 3: little bit skeptical at the UC level that they can

396
00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:43,720
Speaker 3: handle the power. But I do like Rojabob, especially Rojabob

397
00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,600
Speaker 3: three fight, and I think you could maybe live bet

398
00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:49,560
Speaker 3: out of it with al Sawati after round one. The

399
00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:51,679
Speaker 3: one angle that concerns me is the cardio. I think

400
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:55,399
Speaker 3: Elswati is the cardio advantage. But I favored Rojabob to

401
00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:56,040
Speaker 3: win the first.

402
00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:59,080
Speaker 2: Round and to land takedowns and to land.

403
00:17:58,880 --> 00:17:59,800
Speaker 4: The harder strikes.

404
00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:03,520
Speaker 2: So pre fight, absolutely want to be on Rojabov. I

405
00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:04,119
Speaker 2: think live.

406
00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:07,000
Speaker 3: I might tend to buy out a little bit on

407
00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:10,879
Speaker 3: Alsawati after round one, and then yeah, I lean to

408
00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:11,280
Speaker 3: the fight.

409
00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:13,440
Speaker 2: Uh you know, the My.

410
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:15,560
Speaker 3: Projections say to lean to the fight going to a decision,

411
00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:19,520
Speaker 3: Rojabov winning by decision, but my read on it says

412
00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:22,000
Speaker 3: somebody gets finished, and honestly, I think Rojabov is more

413
00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,040
Speaker 3: finishing upside. So if I'm betting the underdog, I don't

414
00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:26,440
Speaker 3: want to bet be over too, because I think those

415
00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:29,480
Speaker 3: are sort of going against one another. So yeah, Rojabov

416
00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:32,520
Speaker 3: and the under by knockout is where i'd I'd probably lean.

417
00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:36,000
Speaker 3: In terms of a visual read on it, just one

418
00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:39,000
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty five pounds knockouts regionally, it just doesn't

419
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:39,680
Speaker 3: translate well.

420
00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:44,359
Speaker 4: So v is not built like a guy who you

421
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:46,560
Speaker 4: would expect to have good cardio, Which isn't to say

422
00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:49,160
Speaker 4: that we know he has bad cardio. Because there's someone

423
00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:50,760
Speaker 4: I'm going to talk about later on in this card

424
00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,480
Speaker 4: people we've talked about and flights past, like sometimes that

425
00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:56,560
Speaker 4: doesn't matter, but usually these short, stocky, super muscular guys,

426
00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:58,840
Speaker 4: you don't really think of them as cardio machine. So

427
00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:01,520
Speaker 4: I think that's probably a fair read in this card, like,

428
00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:03,520
Speaker 4: given all the variants and how little we know about

429
00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:06,000
Speaker 4: these guys, almost any spot where if I can get

430
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:07,840
Speaker 4: plus money on both sides for the live bet, like,

431
00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:09,359
Speaker 4: I'm just gonna take it on this one. Let's not

432
00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:11,119
Speaker 4: overthink this one and try to get too cute and

433
00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:13,520
Speaker 4: thread the needle on all these perfect spots, like if

434
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:15,840
Speaker 4: you lock in a profit at any point in these,

435
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:18,600
Speaker 4: I would strongly recommend going for it. Yeah.

436
00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:20,480
Speaker 3: The last thing I want to mention, just in regards

437
00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:23,359
Speaker 3: to Rodz of Bob's cardio, he doesn't have great control.

438
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,000
Speaker 3: You see that that went over Rivivich. He had a

439
00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,679
Speaker 3: shoot twenty one takedowns. When you land a lot of

440
00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:31,280
Speaker 3: them takedowns. It's great, but also that means that your

441
00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:35,320
Speaker 3: opponent probably got up eight times. So seeing a lot

442
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:37,560
Speaker 3: of takedowns for a fighter like that Morob style, you know,

443
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:40,800
Speaker 3: only so many fighters can keep that Morob pace of shooting.

444
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:44,240
Speaker 3: You know, five takedowns around, ten takedowns around. Eventually guys

445
00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:47,040
Speaker 3: do fall off a cliff. So yeah, not everybody can

446
00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:50,200
Speaker 3: maintain that style. I'm curious to see how that first

447
00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 3: round goes, but I think it should favor Roger Bob.

448
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:55,960
Speaker 1: This podcast is probably presented by BETMGM used bonus code

449
00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,119
Speaker 1: action when signing up to get up to one hundred

450
00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:00,720
Speaker 1: and fifty eight dollars in bonus bets when you bet

451
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:08,880
Speaker 1: five dollars for new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

452
00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:13,919
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

453
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:16,639
Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

454
00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:19,320
Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler.

455
00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:24,000
Speaker 3: Let's talk about our favorite props on the card. I

456
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:25,800
Speaker 3: bet four totals on this card. So far, I have

457
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 3: not bet a single money line, Yet we did talk

458
00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 3: about some fighters that may bettle on the money line.

459
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:32,000
Speaker 3: I just want to see where the prices go prior

460
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,480
Speaker 3: to fight time. But in terms of the totals that

461
00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:36,480
Speaker 3: I like in this card, I save one for best bet.

462
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:40,639
Speaker 3: We're gonna talk about two other ones right now. Nurmaraga

463
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:44,040
Speaker 3: Medov against his opponent. I don't want to mess up

464
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:47,000
Speaker 3: this name, but this guy's a DeBie tomp Bestcott almic Con.

465
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:50,320
Speaker 3: Alma Con had some stuff come out yesterday that is

466
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 3: very interesting. We've had fighters in the UFC in the

467
00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:56,720
Speaker 3: past who have had fraudulent records. Alma Con seemed like

468
00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 3: he might be a guy who has a fraudent record.

469
00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:00,119
Speaker 3: If you watch any TV on in this week, or

470
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 3: if you don't watch tape and you just want a

471
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,640
Speaker 3: funny tidbit, I saw some tweets this week like laugh

472
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 3: crying emojis. You know the tape on Roger or the

473
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 3: tape on a Alma Khan can't wait to watch it.

474
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 3: They're literally fighting on like rugs inside of like a mat.

475
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:19,080
Speaker 3: I mean it's like like Persian rugs inside of like

476
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 3: a matted area. I've never seen fights set up like this,

477
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 3: so sure Dog investigated his fights, his records, and they

478
00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 3: actually found that this guy might be more legit than

479
00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:30,360
Speaker 3: his record indicates. He is a seventeen to one record.

480
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:31,840
Speaker 3: They had to take a few fights off of his

481
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,439
Speaker 3: win lost record. I believe he's now coming in at fourteen

482
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:37,480
Speaker 3: and one officially, but that's just because some of the

483
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:40,639
Speaker 3: fights he was competing in were not official MMA fights.

484
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,080
Speaker 3: It was a different like subset of rules, and they

485
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:46,399
Speaker 3: can't officially qualify it under MMA rules. That's that he

486
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,840
Speaker 3: is a winner for Sergei Morozov that is not on

487
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,160
Speaker 3: his record officially. It makes him like an even more

488
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:53,679
Speaker 3: legitimate fighter than he already seemed to be based on

489
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 3: the film, so umer and Murga Meto, you know, probably

490
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:00,240
Speaker 3: the best one hundred and thirty five pounder on the planet.

491
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:04,159
Speaker 3: Maybe certainly has you know, an argument to being so.

492
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 3: Based on the skills we've seen so far. He looks

493
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 3: phenomenally talented. I think he will have the belt eventually,

494
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:11,439
Speaker 3: or at least compete for it at some point in

495
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:13,920
Speaker 3: the future, maybe a fight with morob down the line,

496
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:16,920
Speaker 3: potentially ligning those two up. But a minus twelve hundred

497
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 3: prohibitive favorite on this card that's the best price available.

498
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,440
Speaker 2: Actually like this fight to be a little bit more competitive.

499
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,359
Speaker 3: Than that line would indicate, though the over one and

500
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 3: a half rounds at minus one sixty, well bet that

501
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:32,119
Speaker 3: up to about minus one eighty. Umar is odd because

502
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,359
Speaker 3: he has some quick finishes on his record, but he

503
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:38,200
Speaker 3: also has pyotr Gian disease where he doesn't necessarily engage

504
00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 3: his opponents for the first three or four minutes of

505
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 3: the fight. He likes to get his reads, approach his

506
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 3: opponents patiently, and then sort of go to work, and

507
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,720
Speaker 3: as a result of that time ticking away, it just

508
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 3: lends itself more to the over cashing. So based on

509
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,640
Speaker 3: the money line, based on you know, the short notice

510
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 3: nature of his opponent, who has like a quote unquote

511
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 3: fraudulent record, you would think Umar would finish him, you know,

512
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 3: on the first exchange. I actually think this is going

513
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,399
Speaker 3: to be more competitive, and I think Besott has the

514
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 3: potential to be one of these guys who overachieves against

515
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:12,919
Speaker 3: the huge favorite and then he's heavily favored in his

516
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:15,000
Speaker 3: next fight and we have to bet against him. So

517
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 3: Nermagamedev Almakhan over one and a half at minus one

518
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 3: sixty and then another short notice debutante on this card,

519
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 3: AJ Cunningham again Ludovick Klein minus nine hundred minus one thousand,

520
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 3: depending on the book. Cunningham got destroyed on Contender Series,

521
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 3: and he's a kid with a very sympathetic story awful childhood.

522
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,920
Speaker 3: I think he's Bryce Mitchell's cousin, so there's some connections

523
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 3: to getting him trying to get him to the UFC,

524
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 3: But based on his Contender Series fight, this kid is

525
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 3: no business sniffing the UFC. He's coming in as a

526
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:48,359
Speaker 3: short notice replacement here. I think Klein headkick knocks him

527
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 3: out in the first round puts him in serious danger.

528
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:54,919
Speaker 3: The one thing with Cunningham is he's super durable, like

529
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 3: too tough for his own good. I would hope the

530
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 3: ref does not give him too much leway, consider this

531
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:03,120
Speaker 3: is a fight that probably shouldn't even be sanctioned, and

532
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 3: Rudovik Klein is like a legitimate top you know, twenty

533
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:11,320
Speaker 3: five fighter in his division. So quin Cunningham under one

534
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 3: and a half, you can get that a plus money

535
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 3: like that too, about minus one ten. I think KWin

536
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 3: finishes him in the first half of the fight.

537
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, so real quick on the UMAR stuff you mention.

538
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 4: I'm glad you mentioned the sergam roseof and Rosov was

539
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:27,880
Speaker 4: beating Umar and then I believe it was a guillotine

540
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:30,440
Speaker 4: that he tapped to that. I was like screaming at

541
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 4: the TV wasn't on, Please don't tap to this. This

542
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 4: is not a real submission, like you're okay. Didn't work

543
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 4: out the way, and then Rosov got cut despite like

544
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 4: having a fairly good UFC run in there, which I

545
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 4: thought was weird. I don't understand why that happened. I

546
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,199
Speaker 4: wouldn't even hate like this is obviously, you know, not

547
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 4: financial advice, but little sprinkle on almakan money line, just

548
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,360
Speaker 4: in case something crazy happened to that. Odds. Again, we're

549
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:53,199
Speaker 4: just trying to have fun on this card, guys. This

550
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 4: is not the best betting spot we have. But to

551
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 4: go to my callback about you know, guys don't look

552
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:02,200
Speaker 4: like they should have Cardio do Vitor Patrino. He's got

553
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 4: four fights under the UFC banner, including the Contender Series,

554
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,400
Speaker 4: two second round wins, two second round finishes, a third

555
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 4: round finish dominant decision. You can get him in round

556
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,399
Speaker 4: two at plus four hundred, round three at plus eight

557
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 4: hundred to fight Tyson Pedro. Tyson Pedro is ten to

558
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,119
Speaker 4: four as a pro, has never won a fight that

559
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:23,200
Speaker 4: went longer than five minutes. Both guys got big power.

560
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:25,159
Speaker 4: But I think the easiest past the victory here for

561
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 4: Patrino is just to take Pedro down, make him carry

562
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:29,920
Speaker 4: his weight, gass him out in the first round, then

563
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 4: look for the finish later. Pedro is in theory a

564
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:35,440
Speaker 4: BJJ black belt, and he looks good for like brief

565
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 4: stretches of grappling, but every time somebody takes the grappling

566
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 4: to him, he is just totally guessed out. After that,

567
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,239
Speaker 4: you can tell he has a kickboxing background. That's what

568
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 4: he likes to do. He's comfortable moving around on the feet.

569
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:47,920
Speaker 4: He gets in those wrestling exchanges, the gas tank just

570
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 4: drains immediately. So if I'm Patrino or Patrino's coaches, whatever,

571
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 4: it's let's take him down for the first round, don't

572
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 4: work too hard for a finish, just wear him out

573
00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 4: second and third round. Get pretty good prices on those.

574
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 4: Think even hire some other books if you shot round,

575
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 4: but plus four hundred plus eight hundred about a quarter

576
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 4: unit on each more than enough for me.

577
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:07,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, Patrino, the clear a side of this fight.

578
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,880
Speaker 3: To me, the better prospect and you know, six years younger,

579
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:12,679
Speaker 3: so the UFC is going to be trying to push him,

580
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 3: move him up the rankings. They gave it a shot

581
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 3: with Tyson Pedro. He's probably better.

582
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:19,440
Speaker 2: Suited for the WWE than the UFC.

583
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 3: Moving on to our best bets, I'm going with another

584
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 3: over one and a half here minus one ten.

585
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,200
Speaker 2: I like it up to about minus one twenty five.

586
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 3: Christopher Leora Duncan CLD against Claudio Roberto. Duncan is the

587
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 3: better striker, but he's a bit of a karate guy,

588
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 3: and when they are at striking range, he's going to

589
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 3: try to be at distance or he's going to try

590
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 3: to be all the way in clinching up.

591
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:46,920
Speaker 2: Roberto throws a lot of power, does not have much.

592
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,919
Speaker 3: Cardio really gonna fall off a cliff in the second

593
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 3: half of the fight, and I think Duncan either finishes

594
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,160
Speaker 3: in the latter half the fight or wins a pretty

595
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 3: clear decision. But at range, I think Duncan is going

596
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 3: to be staying as far away as possible, trying to

597
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:01,640
Speaker 3: kick him across the cage or jab him, or he's

598
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 3: going to be clinching him up against the fence, trying

599
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 3: to exhaust them, tiring them out, and they're gonna be

600
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 3: switching positions. I can see a lot of stalling time

601
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:10,879
Speaker 3: in this fight, a lot of time ticking off the clock.

602
00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 3: And frankly, if somebody finishes it in the first seven

603
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 3: and a half minutes, I think it's likelier to be

604
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 3: Roberto with a big power shot where he just catches Duncans.

605
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:20,440
Speaker 3: So duncan ribero over one and a half at a

606
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:22,119
Speaker 3: pick em price. So I said, I like that up

607
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:25,159
Speaker 3: to about minus one twenty five, Billy, you're going with

608
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:27,640
Speaker 3: a fighter to win inside the distance as your best

609
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 3: bet this week.

610
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 4: I mean, it's just this is more. It's not even

611
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 4: like a technical read. It's just I can't believe the

612
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 4: difference between his money line and is inside the distance.

613
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 4: And that's Eric Anders. He's coming up around like minus

614
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,359
Speaker 4: five hundred and some spots now not quite but getting

615
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 4: there and then plus one thirty plus one thirty five

616
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:47,360
Speaker 4: depend on where you look inside the distance against Jamie Pickett,

617
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 4: Anders has finished more than half of his UFC wins.

618
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:53,399
Speaker 4: He's finished four out of seven, and Pickett is to

619
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:56,159
Speaker 4: put it mildly, not really UFC level. He's on a

620
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,640
Speaker 4: four fight losing streak. He's been finished in three of those.

621
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,359
Speaker 4: We'll give him a past losing to bow Nickel, like

622
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 4: in theory based on how long it lasted. He actually

623
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 4: did better against bow Nickel than anyone else did bo.

624
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 2: Nickel grad de fence. Didn't you see didn't you see

625
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 2: Jamie's pickets sweets about bo graving the fence, Well, he

626
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:11,680
Speaker 2: had the.

627
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 4: One where bou need him in the groin as well.

628
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 4: I believe that was the same fight, and like cool

629
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 4: like he might have and probably did, but you weren't

630
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,719
Speaker 4: beating bo Nickel anyway, That's not why that was happening.

631
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 4: But I digress. He's also been submitted by Kyle Daukas,

632
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 4: who Eric anders beating the grappling match, and Kyle's long

633
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:32,280
Speaker 4: since out of the UFC. Dannis te Lulian, who I

634
00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 4: probably said that wrong, who went one in four in

635
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 4: the UFC. Only win was against Jamie Pickett and he

636
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 4: finished it. And then he went to the distance against

637
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 4: Josh Fremdon his last one. Good for him, But the

638
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 4: man's on a zero to four streak, and I thought, well,

639
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 4: you know, Eric Anders's been around a long time. Maybe

640
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaker 4: Pickett's getting better. You know that last one looked better

641
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 4: than it had been before. I can kind of see

642
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 4: if that's why they're like fourteen months apart in age

643
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:56,959
Speaker 4: with Anders is only slightly older. So I don't think

644
00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 4: Andrews plays with his food here. He's one in three

645
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 4: in his last four like he's just gonna get it done,

646
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 4: kind of buy whatever he wants. He's a better athlete

647
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 4: former football player at University of Alabama. Believe some NFL

648
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 4: experience like practice squad or something like that, better athlete,

649
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:15,000
Speaker 4: better takedowns, hits harder. Really, the only path here for

650
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 4: Picket is like dancing around for fifteen minutes and trying

651
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 4: to have him to death, which Andrews is just gonna

652
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 4: football tackle him and fix that anyway, So this one

653
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 4: should be a lot closer to the minus five hundred

654
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 4: or so money line. Wouldn't take that money line on

655
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 4: an unreliable guy like Honders, but getting plus money for

656
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 4: him to finish makes total sense. And then Mike Anders

657
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 4: a little bit of a cardio risk, Like I've been saying,

658
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 4: if you think you can hedge out with Picket live

659
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 4: after that also an option.

660
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 3: Good to me, Jamie Pickett just doesn't do anything. His

661
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 3: best skill is cage pushing and holding people all against

662
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 3: the fence, and that doesn't get scored anymore. He has

663
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 3: a five inch reach advantage, will not make any use

664
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 3: of it whatsoever. So another fight where we see, you know,

665
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 3: the fighter who needs to get inside with more power

666
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,080
Speaker 3: probably has a chance of clinching picket pickets. Third, your

667
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 3: ability also seems to be going too. He used to

668
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 3: be like a pretty durable guy who I would bet

669
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 3: to go to a decision or at least survive. He

670
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 3: doesn't seem to be able to take any damage anymore either,

671
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 3: So yeah, I would want to lean to the over here.

672
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 3: But it's over two and a half at like juiced up.

673
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 2: You know, if this was over.

674
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 3: One and a half minus one ten, i'd probably bet

675
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:19,320
Speaker 3: the over, not at two and a half. Two s

676
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:21,240
Speaker 3: to the over, no, thank you, So probably agree with you.

677
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 3: Billy on Andrews to win inside the distance, and also

678
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 3: Andrews on the money line frankly minus five hundred, I

679
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 3: think that should be minus nine hundred. He's really like

680
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 3: a ninety percent favorite in this fight. I'd probably use

681
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 3: him as a parlay piece as well. I could see him,

682
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 3: you know, the only way you lose your bet belly. Honestly,

683
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 3: I think Andrews has like fight IQ issues sometimes.

684
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 2: And you also said the cardio stuff.

685
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 3: I could see him landing like big damaging strikes and

686
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 3: then clinching or going for a takedown and you're just

687
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 3: screaming at the TV like what are you doing? Just

688
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 3: like square up and hit him. So he tends to

689
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 3: do that stuff sometimes drives me nuts. I feel like

690
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 3: the Darren Stewart fight he had Stuart hurt and then

691
00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 3: was like shooting for takedowns that you're like, what are

692
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 3: you doing? So yeah, in interesting angle there. Expecting a

693
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 3: fair amount of.

694
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 2: Islends this week.

695
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 3: I think, you know, despite all these big favorites, I

696
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 3: bet a few overs all the other fights though, I

697
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 3: think man inside the distance that'll do it for us.

698
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 3: For the UFC Vegas eighty seven betting preview presented by

699
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 3: at MGM, I'm shan Zaiulo. Thank you for joining me,

700
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 3: Billy Ward. You can find all of our picks in

701
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 3: the Action Network app. I'll be firing them in there

702
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 3: before the card on Saturday. Best of luck with all

703
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 3: of your bets. Card starts at one thirty pm. We'll

704
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:30,880
Speaker 3: see you next week.

705
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:39,120
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706
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:41,920
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707
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:45,080
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