1 00:00:09,920 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we are on a roll 2 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:14,240 Speaker 1: fading the Cowboys. 3 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:16,920 Speaker 2: I am Greg Rosenthal here in. 4 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 1: The Chris Westling podcast studio with my friend who joins 5 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:25,480 Speaker 1: us for our Friday pick show every week, Cynthia Freeland. 6 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 2: Hi, how you doing on a little bit of a 7 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 2: role here. 8 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 1: Hey, you know that's how we live when we join 9 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:36,200 Speaker 1: forces fading the Cowboys. Last two weeks we are two 10 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:38,239 Speaker 1: and oh each a combined four and oh if you 11 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 1: wanted to count our records. But I don't know if 12 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:42,559 Speaker 1: you know this. I haven't told you this. I went 13 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 1: three and oh again last week, so I am on 14 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 1: a six and oh. Cheeter, And you're also doing great 15 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 1: as well. You've had four out of five winning weeks, 16 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: so we both are well in the winning margin for 17 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 1: the season. It is all happening, Cynthia. What is going 18 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 1: to be your first pick? We picked three games against 19 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 1: the spread each in every week. 20 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:08,639 Speaker 3: Okay, I think this week my starting point is going 21 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:12,399 Speaker 3: to be fading the Dallas Code. 22 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: Okay, I wasn't sure if I was gonna go there 23 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 1: again or not. But tell me why. 24 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 3: I mean to be fair, it's hard. Seven and a 25 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 3: half is a weird number. Okay, but I don't care. 26 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 3: I have it for more than that. I ultimately believe 27 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 3: the fact that even though the Dallas defense has gotten 28 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:34,839 Speaker 3: some pressure, I just think with Nico Collins coming back, 29 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 3: they're gonna treat this as a let's get Nico back. 30 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:40,360 Speaker 3: They have the best so second best in terms of 31 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 3: quarterback to wide receiver and passer rating. So one thirty 32 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 3: three point three, that's what happens for CJ. Strode when 33 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:48,919 Speaker 3: Nico Collins is there and he hasn't been on the field. 34 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 3: So I think they're gonna treat less like they would 35 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 3: treat maybe like not a not a preseason game, because 36 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 3: that's not what I mean, but like integrating him back 37 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:57,760 Speaker 3: into the lineup, run all the routes. 38 00:01:57,560 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 4: Let's get targets here, let's get targets there. 39 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 3: Like this is a great eat opportunity for that and plus, 40 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 3: you know, you can run on the Cowboys and Joe 41 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 3: Mixon turns out he's a running quarterback, running back. 42 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 2: He's a great running back. 43 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 1: The fact that they haven't been able to get their 44 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 1: early down run game consistent. There's a lot of lost 45 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 1: you know, stuffs and negative runs. But that's like, but 46 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:17,680 Speaker 1: look like that's against good teams. 47 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:19,919 Speaker 3: But you have to also realize, like lines are very 48 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 3: good at that, Like it's it's yes, I understand that, 49 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 3: Like it's weird saying that as a Lions fan. I 50 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 3: almost feel like I'm lying, but like the lines. 51 00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 1: Are, yeah, they're great. No, you're absolutely right. So I 52 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 1: had the Cowboys baiting them as possibly my third pick, 53 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 1: and I wasn't sure whether I would or not, and 54 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:41,000 Speaker 1: I had it seven. Probably depends where you look. 55 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:41,600 Speaker 2: You're right. 56 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:43,240 Speaker 1: I think it's moved up to seven and a half. Yeah, 57 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 1: but you know what, I like being on the same 58 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 1: team as you. 59 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 2: Let's do it. 60 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,079 Speaker 1: So if I'm putting a big question mark and I'll 61 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 1: get to the one I was considering late later it 62 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: was on the edge. Anyways, as my third pick, I 63 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 1: will also go Houston minus seven and a half on 64 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:02,639 Speaker 1: the road in down looks, it's all about the Cowboys 65 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 1: offense for me. The reason why I'm a little anxious 66 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 1: about is just the Cowboys defense last week with Michael 67 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 1: Parsons back. If you watch that game, it took the 68 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 1: Eagles about seven drives to get to that second touchdown, 69 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 1: and they got a lot of pressure, and that's against 70 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:20,079 Speaker 1: a good Eagles a line, and I think about that matchup, 71 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 1: and it's home and they got to be embarrassed, and 72 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 1: I just think the Cowboys defense will be okay. And yes, 73 00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 1: the return of Nico Collins matters a lot, but this 74 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 1: offensive line for and so that I was just worried. Man, 75 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: is this gonna be the third quarter and it's it's 76 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 1: seventeen to ten and I'm sweating this out. 77 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 4: Yes, probably, but it's the other It doesn't matter. 78 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 2: No, it's the other side of the I don't want 79 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:40,720 Speaker 2: to sweat this out. 80 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 1: The last couple of weeks, we've been hitting like ones 81 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 1: that are over mid third quarter. 82 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 2: It's the other side of the ball. 83 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 1: I mean, Cooper Rush averaged less than two yards per 84 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 1: past last week every time he dropped back. 85 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 2: He now has a neck injury. 86 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:58,400 Speaker 3: His quarterback winstat is really good, right, he has won 87 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:00,880 Speaker 3: a lot of games. 88 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:03,360 Speaker 1: They did get to Neil Hunter back at practice on Thursday. 89 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 1: We're not for sure whether Will Anderson is going to 90 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 1: play in this game, so that's obviously a concern. But 91 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 1: when they got Aziz alsha Here back last week, I 92 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 1: think that really helped them against the Lions. They are 93 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:16,520 Speaker 1: one of the most consistent week to week defenses in 94 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 1: the NFL. I think they're one of the few difference 95 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 1: making defenses in the NFL. So if you're telling me 96 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 1: one of the few difference making defenses in the NFL 97 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 1: against this Cowboys team, like the over under I'm giving 98 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 1: for Cowboys and points in this game is like ten, right, 99 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 1: so give me the seven and a half. We are 100 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 1: both on the Texans again. We've been riding. We've been 101 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,600 Speaker 1: riding this fade train for the Cowboys. Let's let's keep 102 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 1: it rolling, keep my undefeated streak going. If I get 103 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 1: to nine to zero. Like, if you think I'm insufferable 104 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 1: now right, three straight weeks, I don't. 105 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 3: I don't really think you're insufferable. Like I actually rooting 106 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:52,599 Speaker 3: for it because I think it's funny. Doesn't mean that 107 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:55,359 Speaker 3: I am rooting against myself. No, we can both be. 108 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 1: We're we're competing, but we're both winning right now, and 109 00:04:58,120 --> 00:04:59,799 Speaker 1: we're giving our audience. 110 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:03,120 Speaker 3: How who would win if we both win? All here 111 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 3: and not like everyone the listener, you would win? 112 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 2: All right, give me your second pick. 113 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 1: We are both on the Cowboys, losing by more than 114 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:13,840 Speaker 1: seven and a half points at home to the Texans. 115 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 2: What is your second pick? 116 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 4: Indianapolis and the points. 117 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 3: Okay, I have the Jets winning outright, but I have 118 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 3: Indianapolis with the points, and it's very volatile on the 119 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 3: Jets side, and I don't like that. So I'm punishing 120 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 3: them because I I have, I have proven to my 121 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:32,520 Speaker 3: I have stayed committed to taking the picks in my model. 122 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:34,479 Speaker 3: I don't go against my model. You know this, but 123 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 3: I hate that pick. Like if I had to, if 124 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:38,479 Speaker 3: I had to tell you what I believe, it's cults 125 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 3: I'm taking if I had to. 126 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 2: Wait, but you're taking the Jets. 127 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:46,360 Speaker 4: Well straight up, yeah, okay, say whatever. 128 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:48,200 Speaker 2: I don't know. I have a lot of We do 129 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 2: a show on network. 130 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:51,360 Speaker 4: I understand. 131 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:54,120 Speaker 1: We don't mention it a lot. The listeners for this 132 00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:57,040 Speaker 1: show would be particularly interesting. Game devietw on NFL Network 133 00:05:57,400 --> 00:05:58,279 Speaker 1: each and every week. 134 00:05:58,480 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 2: Yeah. 135 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:01,040 Speaker 1: Start the first air in very early in the morning 136 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:03,359 Speaker 1: on the West Coast on Friday, but it has multiple 137 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 1: airings throughout the weekend, including on Sunday morning before game 138 00:06:07,279 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 1: day morning. So you can you can set your DVR 139 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:12,360 Speaker 1: to our picks there. But so your pick is Jets 140 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 1: plus four or minus four. 141 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:19,279 Speaker 4: No, my pick is Colts. Oh, Colts plus plus oh four. Oh, 142 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 4: you're saying I have the Jets. 143 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 2: That's what I thought, But. 144 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:24,320 Speaker 4: I have the Colts cut because I hate this. 145 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 2: All that matters is is the Colts covering, right, It's 146 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 2: all that matters. That's right. 147 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:31,839 Speaker 3: I don't I'm just telling you, but I'm just explaining 148 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:36,120 Speaker 3: that part of the reason why I, specifically or pacifically 149 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 3: how you speak. 150 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 4: English, wanted this one. It's because sometimes I get mad 151 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 4: at my own model. 152 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 1: Right, and so you're not happy that your model has 153 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 1: the Jets winning this win. Your model has been heavy 154 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,039 Speaker 1: on the Jets all season. Now my model, the. 155 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 2: Vegas has to Vegas has two. 156 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 1: Frankly, when I looked at this one, and this was 157 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 1: the fourth game I was debating, So this one's going 158 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 1: to be in my little box. 159 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 2: It's not going to be on my three official picks. 160 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:02,720 Speaker 2: But I'm with you. I agree with you. 161 00:07:02,760 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 1: The fourth pick that I was debating was either Colts 162 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: plus four or Texans minus seven and a half. And 163 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 1: I'm gonna put it as like my extra pick this week. 164 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 1: But I am prepared to agree with you because I 165 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 1: am picking the Colts straight up in this game. The 166 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 1: vibes could not be worse. I mean, it's not that 167 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 1: the Jets are just losing these games. When they're losing 168 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 1: these games, they are not competitive. I think it could 169 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 1: actually be worse at home. I think their offense will 170 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 1: be okay in this game against the Colts, But the 171 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 1: Colts have been getting better pass rush lately, yeah, since 172 00:07:31,400 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 1: they got the Forest Buckner back. And I think Anthony 173 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 1: Richardson is a plus. I look at him as giving 174 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 1: the Colts a better chance to win with a ground 175 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 1: based attack against this Jets run defense, which just had 176 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 1: no fight last week. And some people, you know, you look, 177 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 1: you just look up front and you think, oh, they 178 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 1: can't stop throwing. 179 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 2: That's part of it. You know what a big. 180 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:54,480 Speaker 1: Part of it is is Sauce Gardner and that defensive backfield. 181 00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:57,440 Speaker 1: It's a bunch of skinny corners and safeties who can't 182 00:07:57,480 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 1: tackle and in the NFL today like they will your edges. 183 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:03,560 Speaker 1: I think they used Jonathan Taylor Anthony Richardson on the 184 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 1: edge and Sasgardner and those guys are just missing tackle 185 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 1: after tackle week after week. 186 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 2: So I love your ind plus four. I think you're 187 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 2: two and zero. 188 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 3: Can I tell you something I spent far too much 189 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 3: time looking at what happened with my model and where 190 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:19,239 Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor with Anthony Richardson starting, especially because Jeff Olbrick's 191 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 3: sitting there on his podium being like, we couldn't make 192 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 3: any tackles last week. 193 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 2: Oh blah blah blah blah blah. 194 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 3: Well you know what, Actually, Jonathan Taylor's projection went up 195 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 3: with Anthony Richardson. Why Because Anthony Richardson can't be doing 196 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 3: wild things. He can't be right now, he has like 197 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:38,400 Speaker 3: the highest air yard per attempt average of any like, 198 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 3: it's like thirteen yards per attempt. It's a wild number. 199 00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:45,160 Speaker 3: So in order to keep him from turning the ball 200 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 3: over shorter passes, but also the thread of the run. 201 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 3: And who are they gonna defend? Are they going to 202 00:08:49,840 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 3: defend Anthony Richardson Jonathan Taylor? The answer is both? But like, 203 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 3: how right? So Jonathan Taylor, don't be afraid of his 204 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 3: rushing yard total over gosh, I'm using all these g words. 205 00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 3: I'm scared myself, you can add I know, but I've 206 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 3: been the fear of God has been beaten into me 207 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 3: about that. 208 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:06,240 Speaker 2: For years. We had this. 209 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:08,839 Speaker 4: We had to say, like the worst, people will be like, 210 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 4: your grammar's terrible. I'm like you try speaking in code. 211 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:14,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, we had to speak in a weird code. It 212 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:17,199 Speaker 1: was essentially a pick show. It was essentially a gambling show. 213 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 1: But it was like you couldn't advertise it that way. 214 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 4: And we'd say more or less. 215 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:24,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, not more higher, here we go. 216 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 1: Okay, I feel so good about Packers minus five and 217 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:28,880 Speaker 1: a half. I can't believe this number has gone back 218 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 1: to the Packers during the week. It was actually higher 219 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:35,079 Speaker 1: when I initially it was six earlier. Now it's five 220 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:38,080 Speaker 1: and a half. Sometimes it's just over in life that 221 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 1: the numbers that your model spits out, and you're probably 222 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:43,439 Speaker 1: on the same side as me, are you? But then, 223 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 1: but even Vegas, some they can't totally measure when it's 224 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 1: just over. These are These are human beings, and you 225 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 1: don't get the dead coach bounce with the offensive coordinator change. 226 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 1: So there's there's two reasons I'm picking this one. Okay, 227 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 1: you want to stand no, no, no, I'm doing this is 228 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 1: okay one, thank you. Reason Number one. Everyone thinks that, okay, 229 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 1: the Bears offense is a mess, but it's a good defense, right, 230 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 1: you know, it's a good Bears defense. Like, Okay, their 231 00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 1: defense is fine. A. They do not rush the passer 232 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 1: very well, like they're getting Montes swept back. But they're 233 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 1: not really a great pass rush team, very mediocre in 234 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 1: terms of getting to the quarterback, in terms of pass 235 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: rush to win rate, all that stuff. Number two, they 236 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:28,559 Speaker 1: don't stop the run at all. They're actually quite poor 237 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:30,560 Speaker 1: stopping the run. So you're gonna tell me they are 238 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 1: a difference making deference when A, you don't really rush 239 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:37,360 Speaker 1: the passer at an exceptional rate your average, and then 240 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:40,400 Speaker 1: B you're legitimately bad stopping the run. They are thirtieth 241 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:45,080 Speaker 1: in DVOA. That's total efficiency against the run that measures 242 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:47,560 Speaker 1: their schedule. That's been a big part of the reason 243 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 1: why their defense is overrated. They're thirteenth overall on defense 244 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 1: by that mettriuc because of the schedule they haven't played 245 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:57,200 Speaker 1: anyone and when now when they've started playing some teams 246 00:10:57,240 --> 00:11:00,160 Speaker 1: like the Cardinals, for instance, they got run over and 247 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:03,640 Speaker 1: then look, I got a third number, a third point point. 248 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 1: Andrew Billions was by far their best run stopper. They 249 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:08,679 Speaker 1: kind of count on a nose tackle to take up 250 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 1: two blockers on the interior. He's a huge man, very 251 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:13,600 Speaker 1: underrated player, was playing at a high level for them. 252 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:16,000 Speaker 1: He just went out for the season two weeks ago. 253 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 1: So I think they're significantly worse than they were then. 254 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 1: The offense is obviously a mess, and I'm not we 255 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 1: don't even need to talk about how bad the offense is. 256 00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:27,679 Speaker 2: But I truly believe it's over over. 257 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:30,480 Speaker 1: These last two games were two of the worst games 258 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 1: I've ever seen from an offensive staff and offensive team. 259 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 1: And you're playing a good Packers team. I think they 260 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 1: win by twenty five. Like, I love it. I give 261 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:41,839 Speaker 1: me this Packers one. 262 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:42,600 Speaker 4: I'm with you on that. 263 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:45,719 Speaker 3: I will say, here's my like, like I did, We're 264 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 3: going down a nerd rabbit hole. But it's okay because 265 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:48,719 Speaker 3: I have my glasses on so when I'm wearing my 266 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 3: glasses I can be nerd. 267 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:49,719 Speaker 2: Hear. 268 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 3: I did this thing where I tracked how where the 269 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:59,439 Speaker 3: volume of money was going on bets and which fans 270 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:05,480 Speaker 3: are disproportionately irrational about their team, and Chicago fans are 271 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 3: pretty irrational, meaning they get a little change and they're like, 272 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:12,040 Speaker 3: we're winning now right, like they go they swing all 273 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:16,719 Speaker 3: the way back to like they're very like we hate you, 274 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 3: we love you, we hate you, we love you. So 275 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:21,959 Speaker 3: I think part of that is to entice those Bears 276 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:23,240 Speaker 3: fans they'll. 277 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 4: Make in Vegas. 278 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:26,320 Speaker 3: I also read all these ten k's and like, you know, 279 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 3: these earnings, I do nerdy stuff and I have a 280 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:30,200 Speaker 3: lame free time. 281 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 4: I read these earnings reports. 282 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 3: The casinos have beginning hammered a little bit, So look 283 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:36,559 Speaker 3: out for these lines to be a little wild because 284 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 3: they need to entice some fans. 285 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 4: Are the same little little business one oh one here. 286 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 1: You know what they're enticing me right now? Well to 287 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:47,200 Speaker 1: go Packers minus five and halfs. And it's funny you 288 00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 1: say that because every year on the over under draft 289 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 1: that we've been doing on the podcast, which I am 290 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:57,240 Speaker 1: on a wild winning streak on the last couple of years. 291 00:12:57,440 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 2: Man, I'm just patting myself in the back too, But 292 00:12:59,080 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 2: why not? 293 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:01,720 Speaker 1: The Bears over under before the start of the season 294 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:04,000 Speaker 1: is always too high half And I've gone under every 295 00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 1: year and I did it again this year. 296 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 2: It was nine and a half in some places. 297 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:09,120 Speaker 1: But I feel good that either whether you got an 298 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 1: eight and a half or nine half, it's going to 299 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 1: be under. 300 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:12,360 Speaker 2: All right, let's go to your final pick. 301 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:15,080 Speaker 3: My final pick speaking of a team that hit their 302 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:17,319 Speaker 3: win totals or will be hitting their win totals should 303 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 3: they win this game. 304 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 4: Denver five and a half wins was the win total 305 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 4: ahead of the season. 306 00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, they're at five right now. I'm feeling good about 307 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 3: that one. I hammered that one pretty hard, so I 308 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:29,840 Speaker 3: would have been really eating Crow if I or eating Bronco. 309 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 4: I guess if I think you're getting by this week? Yeah, 310 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:33,440 Speaker 4: I think that they this week. 311 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:35,440 Speaker 3: I think not only do they get the win at 312 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 3: home against Atlanta, but I do have a win by 313 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:39,439 Speaker 3: more than two points. 314 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:42,400 Speaker 2: I too. It's crazy, that's. 315 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 3: It's a wild All these notes are we like becoming 316 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:45,960 Speaker 3: the same person? 317 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:48,680 Speaker 2: Denver is my second person. That would be great for me. 318 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:53,080 Speaker 1: No, I would get way like the grand followers. 319 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:55,680 Speaker 2: You know it'd be It'd be very exciting. 320 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:58,959 Speaker 3: Let's be fair. I'd rather have your wit and quick bit. No, 321 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:02,079 Speaker 3: Anthony Jail's Nick is my favorite, So okay, you best 322 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:03,199 Speaker 3: friends with him would be great. 323 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 2: I'm glad. 324 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:05,240 Speaker 4: I'm actually scared of him. 325 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 1: But you brought that up that Jessel Nick and Rosenthal 326 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:10,240 Speaker 1: Vanity project is back this I don't think I've mentioned 327 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:11,680 Speaker 1: that on nflaily. 328 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:13,800 Speaker 4: Really excited about that. I'm really excited about this. 329 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:16,320 Speaker 1: I appreciate, so I'm with you. Denver was my number 330 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:18,839 Speaker 1: two pick. It was locked and loaded minus two and 331 00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 1: a half I saw. So whether it's shoot two and 332 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 1: a half, whatever, either way, I'm going full bowliever, you know. Uh. Now, 333 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 1: the Broncos has been part of this show for my 334 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 1: picks three straight weeks now. I went against them with Baltimore. 335 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 2: We got it. We we both were with him last week. 336 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 2: It was in it. 337 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 1: Mine was in the extra picks the box, but you 338 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 1: nailed it with the plus eight. I agreed with you 339 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:46,480 Speaker 1: on that. There's a couple of reasons. I just like 340 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 1: the physical matchup up front. The Falcons with the worst 341 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 1: pressure rate, the worst sack rate in the entire NFL 342 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:56,680 Speaker 1: against a Broncos offensive line with that's really underrated, number 343 00:14:56,720 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 1: one in past block win rate. Right now PFF as 344 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 1: them as then number two pass protection team in the league, 345 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 1: so that's a huge mismatch. And bo Nick's numbers when 346 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:12,480 Speaker 1: he's protected, they're fantastic. So that's the numbers reason. The 347 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:16,960 Speaker 1: more reason why I do it sometimes is I just 348 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:18,920 Speaker 1: look at the records and Patrick brought this up on 349 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:20,960 Speaker 1: the previous show. The Falcons, to me, they're not a 350 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 1: seven and four team. They need to come back to 351 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 1: their their water. Their water is six and five. I 352 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 1: look at the Falcons, they don't deserve to be seven 353 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 1: and four. Whether the Broncos deserve to be six and five. Yeah, 354 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 1: that sounds about right at a little above average. They've 355 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 1: lost too straight, the Broncos on the road to really 356 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:39,800 Speaker 1: good teams Ravens and Chiefs. They're coming back home. They 357 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 1: need it more. I like them in this spot to 358 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:45,480 Speaker 1: win the game. And I just don't believe in the 359 00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:49,240 Speaker 1: Falcons defense at all, and I think they get cooked 360 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 1: in this game. Sean Payton's really been doing a good 361 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 1: job kind of building up this offense bit by bit. 362 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 3: I've been trying to figure it out right now. But 363 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 3: Mike McGlinchey, if he's able to go like that's very 364 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 3: helpful to this. But I think great in the battle 365 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 3: and the trenches on both sides either. 366 00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 2: Way, I agree with you. 367 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 1: And yeah, Kirk Cousins is always a little dangerous because 368 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 1: I think he's been playing at a pretty high level 369 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 1: despite not being able to move around. And yet I 370 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 1: think his offensive line they're a very average pass rush 371 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 1: by I mean past protecting group, like you would think 372 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 1: they had this reputation at the Falcons as a good 373 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 1: pass protecting your both well, just so. 374 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 4: They're all drafted so high, right, they're all like first rounders. 375 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 1: They're okay, they're not bad, they're not good, but this 376 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 1: is against a very good pass rush. So this is 377 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 1: the first week of the season that we've agreed on 378 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 1: two games, and we really agreed on three because you 379 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 1: picked off what would have been my fourth pick. So 380 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 1: we are both on the Texans covering seven and a half, 381 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 1: We're both on the Broncos covering two and a half. 382 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 1: You have the Colts plus four, which I wholeheartedly agree with. 383 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: That is my pick, my extra pick in the box, 384 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 1: I have the Packers covering five and a half. That 385 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 1: is my very favorite pick of the week. And then 386 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,520 Speaker 1: you kind of took really the only extra pick I 387 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 1: felt really strong about. But I'll throw one, just little 388 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:02,640 Speaker 1: one out there. Is I kind of like the Raiders 389 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:06,119 Speaker 1: actually getting seven in Miami. I just don't I just 390 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:06,480 Speaker 1: you like. 391 00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:10,399 Speaker 3: The North Scott Turner, the Turner family, the Turner family, bump. 392 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:13,400 Speaker 1: I just feel like the Dolphins aren't a good enough 393 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 1: team to be favored by seven against basically anyone. Maybe 394 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 1: if it was the Bears, I would be okay with it, 395 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:21,719 Speaker 1: like because I'm so down on the Bears or the Cowboys. 396 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:23,480 Speaker 1: But I think the Raiders coming off of bye, pretty 397 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,879 Speaker 1: good pass rush, they're two, like I think the Dolphins defense, 398 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:28,120 Speaker 1: it'll just be low and ugly. 399 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:30,240 Speaker 2: So you're giving me, But that's why it's. 400 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:31,960 Speaker 4: Also missing two. 401 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:35,520 Speaker 3: Andre Max Crosby lines up there, you go, good job 402 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:37,880 Speaker 3: a guy that's the name of Lamb going against Max 403 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:39,720 Speaker 3: Crosby just doesn't doesn't doesn't work. 404 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:41,520 Speaker 1: But that's just a little extra pick. And to be honest, 405 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 1: my extra picks have been just like five hundred. 406 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:45,240 Speaker 2: Lately. We're riding high on the top three. 407 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:47,359 Speaker 4: Sure, that's I want to get really too though, I 408 00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:48,080 Speaker 4: have the doing here. 409 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 3: Please do what is the number you see for Cleveland, 410 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:51,720 Speaker 3: because I've seen it bouncing around. 411 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:52,680 Speaker 4: But I have Cleveland winning. 412 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:56,199 Speaker 1: Okay, Yeah, now they're favored by one, but before they 413 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: were an underdog by one. 414 00:17:57,560 --> 00:17:59,840 Speaker 3: Right, So but I have I have Cleveland winning this game. 415 00:17:59,840 --> 00:18:02,040 Speaker 3: And I love Nick Chubb. I'm a huge Nick Chubb 416 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:05,520 Speaker 3: stan and he's gonna get his over fifty rushing touchdown, 417 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 3: which puts them in a club with some Hall of famers, 418 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 3: so like Jim Bred like really good players. 419 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 1: So hey, you know, less talked about than the fired 420 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,119 Speaker 1: coach principle, Like it kind of fades after that first. 421 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 1: You know, I think long term they'll be better with 422 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,719 Speaker 1: Dan Darren Rizzy than they were with Dennis Allen. But 423 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,000 Speaker 1: this is a toss up to me. But I also 424 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 1: picked the Browns and so I agree with you on that. 425 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:25,920 Speaker 2: Yeah. 426 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 3: I also, I mean, look, I think that it's much 427 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:34,800 Speaker 3: harder to defend erratic James Winson can be erratic. We 428 00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:36,640 Speaker 3: know that he's he's gonna throw it deep, but he's 429 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:38,159 Speaker 3: also he could throw a pick. He could throw a 430 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:41,720 Speaker 3: deep like explosive plays makes things harder, and their defense 431 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 3: still has been missing tackles. Their defense still has not 432 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 3: been really stout at limiting yak, limiting yako yaka either one. 433 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:52,119 Speaker 3: It's and that's a that's gonna be hard because I 434 00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 3: just think as good as the Browns defense, Like I'm. 435 00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 1: With you, it's yeah, I think the Browns defense is 436 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,359 Speaker 1: the most trustworthy group in this game. But did not 437 00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:02,600 Speaker 1: make it onto my card just because nothing about these 438 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 1: two teams is too dressed? 439 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:07,120 Speaker 2: Worthies make it dress. Yeah, that's your little extra pick. 440 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:11,520 Speaker 1: Thank you, uh Cynthia once again check out her YouTube 441 00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 1: channel Numbers Game. 442 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:15,000 Speaker 2: That's where it is all happening. 443 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:19,959 Speaker 1: Check out NFL Game Deyview, subscribe to NFL Daily on YouTube. 444 00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 1: We really want to get the subscriber numbers up in 445 00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:23,160 Speaker 1: Blue Sky? 446 00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:24,760 Speaker 2: Is that what we were talking about? We both signed 447 00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:25,400 Speaker 2: up for Blue. 448 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:26,920 Speaker 3: Sky, and we both sign up for Blue Sky. I'm 449 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 3: still not really like, is it just the same thing 450 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 3: as Twitter. I don't really know. 451 00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:31,040 Speaker 2: I don't know, but it's. 452 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:31,600 Speaker 4: We'll figure it out. 453 00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:32,640 Speaker 2: But it's nice. 454 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 4: But also your pod with. 455 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,880 Speaker 2: With Anthony the Justin Lick and Rosenthal Vanity Project. 456 00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:40,880 Speaker 4: Yes, it's really good. 457 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:43,960 Speaker 1: We are back and h we're back in the mix. 458 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:45,879 Speaker 1: That is it for this week's show. We will be 459 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 1: back on Sunday Night of course with Nick Shook and 460 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:50,879 Speaker 1: Patrick Claybond. 461 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:54,840 Speaker 2: Looking forward to that. And yes, when we're in the 462 00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:59,560 Speaker 2: middle of November and we lave you know, football is back.