1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:04,440 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast. 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:12,959 Speaker 2: PODCA All right, here we go, spreading the corn ten 3 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 2: seconds ormaining. You just go show me up to the basket. 4 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:19,440 Speaker 2: Under the basket, it's the croup for the wind. 5 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 3: God pick a miracle. 6 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:25,599 Speaker 1: I'm just up the water. 7 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 3: Hit that one from the parking lot, shuck it off. 8 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 1: In college basketball, it's. 9 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 3: Not the size on the dog in the fight, it's 10 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:40,560 Speaker 3: the size of the fight in the dog. 11 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:44,879 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. We are 12 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:47,760 Speaker 2: here to discuss Feast week in college basketball. That's right, 13 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:50,919 Speaker 2: we're sneaking in a little college hoop's action in between 14 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 2: all of the college football stretch run. And that means 15 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 2: that you're gonna be able to go back to your 16 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:58,800 Speaker 2: podcast feed and get more from Colin Stuck, Mike Ianello, 17 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 2: and myself everything in the G five, leading all the 18 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 2: way up to next week when we handled the last 19 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:07,319 Speaker 2: week of the regular season in college football. But for 20 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 2: right now, we get to talk about two of the 21 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:14,120 Speaker 2: best mts. Those are multiple team event tournaments in all 22 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:16,479 Speaker 2: of college basketball. Of course, I'm referring to the Maui 23 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:20,400 Speaker 2: and the Battle for Atlantis. I'm joined by Tanner McGrath 24 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 2: who has been so kind to us over the years, 25 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 2: giving us a thousand word rundowns on the Yukon offense, 26 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:32,199 Speaker 2: getting into all of the machinations of Dan Hurley's brain 27 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:35,320 Speaker 2: as well as everything that goes on in the America East. 28 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 2: But he is a college basketball expert across the board. 29 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 2: He's going to walk us through these two tournaments. We're 30 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 2: going to give out both our best bets, our favorite 31 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 2: long shot to win these and a play from the 32 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 2: first round of both the Maui and the Battle for Atlanta. 33 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 2: So Tanner, first, let me walk you in here. What 34 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 2: are your thoughts on early season tournaments? Is just my 35 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 2: imagination or have they gotten better over the years where 36 00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 2: they're now marque events being able to compete with college football. 37 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 3: Feast Week is probably the second best single week of 38 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 3: the year behind Conference Championship Tournament Week is walldwall action 39 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:09,400 Speaker 3: for twelve straight days, starting from eleven am Eastern to 40 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 3: midnight every single day, and the best part about it 41 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 3: is you finally start to learn a lot about these teams, 42 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:18,520 Speaker 3: especially the high major ones who play cupkick non con 43 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 3: schedules for their first few games. You know, Ken pob 44 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 3: sub three hundred teams and then so like I'm really 45 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 3: excited to learn a lot about Yukon, I think we'll 46 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:29,920 Speaker 3: learn more about Memphis, two, Auburn, some of these other teams. 47 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 3: So it's best time of year. 48 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 2: All right, you mentioned some of those teams. Let's get 49 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 2: to the card in the MAUI. We'll start with the rundown. 50 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 2: On the odds to win the tournament, Yukon at plus 51 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 2: one seventy is the favorite, Auburn just north of three 52 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:49,760 Speaker 2: to one, North Carolina four to one, Iowa State sitting 53 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 2: in that nine to two range. Michigan State starts the 54 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,799 Speaker 2: long shot, grouping thirteen to one for the Spartans, Memphis 55 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:58,360 Speaker 2: at thirty to one, Dating at forty to one, and 56 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 2: Colorado rounding out the field fifty five to one, and 57 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:03,359 Speaker 2: absolutely loaded field. If you look at the AP rankings 58 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 2: for these teams, Yukon number two, Auburn number four, Iowa 59 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 2: State number five. So we got three top five teams 60 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:10,959 Speaker 2: right off the bat, North Carolina sneaking into the top 61 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 2: ten as well, and Michigan State and Memphis both receiving 62 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 2: votes in both polls. So this is a star studded 63 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 2: event from the get go. And let's start with you, Kon, 64 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:21,239 Speaker 2: I want to get your thoughts on the Huskies. It's 65 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 2: clear Hurley was hoping to grab the attention of his team, 66 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,520 Speaker 2: calling them out for their rebounding and turnover issues despite 67 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:30,400 Speaker 2: beating East Texas A and M formerly Texas A and 68 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 2: M Commerce by thirty five points. Do you think it 69 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:36,800 Speaker 2: was just theatrical he just wanted to have some bolt 70 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 2: and board material or do you think he actually has 71 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 2: some concerns about how his team's playing headed out to 72 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 2: the Islands. 73 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 3: Dan Hurley doesn't exactly know what he has with this 74 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 3: roster yet. I think that replacing Klingon with the duo 75 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 3: of Terras Reed and Samson Johnson presents its own issues. 76 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 3: I think they bring half decent rebounding and half decent defense. 77 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 3: But Klingan was such a dominant interior rim protector and 78 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 3: drop coverage defender. He was a huge bailout option for 79 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:06,080 Speaker 3: the offense in post upsets and by slipping and cutting 80 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 3: ball screens, and Reid is okay as an interior creator. 81 00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 3: Johnson is severely limited offensively to just lob and roll threats, 82 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 3: but also Aiden Mahiney has been mia for the first 83 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 3: month of the season and that's huge because he really 84 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:25,600 Speaker 3: needs to replace the cam spencer production hasan Diarra is 85 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:29,280 Speaker 3: running into a turnover problem with higher usage rates. So 86 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 3: I think Yukon is still getting too much love in 87 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:35,119 Speaker 3: the market, especially in this tournament. And I'll talk about 88 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:37,719 Speaker 3: my favorite team to win in a second. And I 89 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:40,600 Speaker 3: think that there are some legitimate problems that Hurley still 90 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 3: needs to figure out how to solve. I am and 91 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 3: like I said, I'm very intrigued to see what we'll 92 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:47,839 Speaker 3: get out of them against Memphis because we haven't learned 93 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 3: anything about them against four Nobody's So I think Yukon's 94 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:54,359 Speaker 3: a little overvalued. I think that there are real problems 95 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 3: here to at least be handled. I'm sure Hurley can 96 00:04:56,960 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 3: figure something out, but in the early season there are 97 00:04:59,120 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 3: question marks. 98 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 2: Well, let's not bury the lead here. It seems like 99 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:04,920 Speaker 2: you're interested in Auburn at north of any number of 100 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 2: three to one. Evan Mia rates Johnny Broom as his 101 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 2: top player in all of college basketball, and when he 102 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 2: goes through the most optimized high end lineups in the 103 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:16,640 Speaker 2: entire country, when they roll out Baker, Bizarre, Broom, Johnson, Jones, 104 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 2: and Pettiford. According to Evan me it's the top rated 105 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 2: offensive lineup in the entire country by a wide margin. 106 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:25,280 Speaker 2: But if you watch some of the Tigers games this season, 107 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 2: it does appear as though defensively they've taken a step 108 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 2: in the right direction. They're making it very difficult on 109 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 2: teams to get into their sets. They're making them use 110 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 2: more of the shotclock. Do you think that that is 111 00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:40,359 Speaker 2: just the byproduct of some mismatched setups early in the 112 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 2: season playing against teams that they have absolutely dominated, or 113 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 2: do you think this is a change that they can 114 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:46,359 Speaker 2: rely on to make a deep run in March. 115 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:49,480 Speaker 3: I'm just gonna say it, Auburn is my pick to 116 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:51,920 Speaker 3: win this tournament at anything north of three to one. 117 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:55,480 Speaker 3: I think that this market is misspriced. The simple handicap 118 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 3: is that I think Auburn is the best team in 119 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 3: this field by a wide margin, should be favored over Yukon. 120 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:04,559 Speaker 3: I would make them favorites over Yukon on a neutral court. 121 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 3: I think they might be the best team in the 122 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:11,359 Speaker 3: country now, starting with Broom who coming back is just massive. 123 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 3: That is huge because now Auburn is probably the nation's 124 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 3: most rim dominant team on both ends of the court. 125 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 3: I mean Broom is overwhelming down there. Through four games, 126 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:24,159 Speaker 3: he has thirteen blocks and has shot twenty two for 127 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 3: twenty six at the rim. That is insane. And through 128 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 3: four games, Auburn leads the nation in two point shooting 129 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 3: seventy one percent and they ranked top ten and two 130 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:36,839 Speaker 3: point shooting allowed under forty percent. They obliterated three pretty 131 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 3: good mid major squads in my beloved Catamounts that was ugly, 132 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 3: but also Kent State in North Alabama to mid Kent 133 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 3: Palm one hundred teams. And most importantly, they beat Houston 134 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:51,920 Speaker 3: in Texas by shooting seventy two percent from two point 135 00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:56,360 Speaker 3: range against Kelvin Sampson's impenetrable pain denial defense. They shot 136 00:06:56,360 --> 00:06:58,600 Speaker 3: eleven for fifteen at the rim, seven for eight in 137 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 3: the paint. Do you know how insane that is? You 138 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 3: don't score on Houston with post feeds and ball screens. 139 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:07,359 Speaker 3: That didn't matter for Auburn. I have fourteen points on 140 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 3: fifteen ball screens, eleven points on seven posts ups six 141 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 3: from Broom. I mean that win is not only the 142 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:16,239 Speaker 3: most impressive win of the early season, but it's also 143 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 3: really important for me in this tournament because Auburn's first 144 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 3: round matchup. Iowa State runs the same exact defensive scheme. 145 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:27,040 Speaker 3: Both teams blitz ball screens. They bring two to the 146 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:30,000 Speaker 3: ball early, they overhelp and deny the paint down low, 147 00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 3: and then they scramble on the weak side. If Auburn 148 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 3: could shred Houston's ball screen blitz, they could do the 149 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 3: same to Iowa State. And you know, going forward a 150 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 3: second round matchup with Dayton or North Carolina, I don't 151 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 3: think that's too daunting. I think both squads have good backcourts. 152 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 3: I think both teams run relatively small in the front court. 153 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 3: They're both like three hundred nationally in average height, and 154 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:54,480 Speaker 3: I don't think either has the interior two way firepower 155 00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 3: to hang with Broom. And if they inevitably meet Yukon 156 00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:00,920 Speaker 3: in the championship, like we just talked about in the intro, 157 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 3: we'll see how Yukon looks against Memphis and Colorado or 158 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 3: Michigan State, but we haven't learned much about them in 159 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:09,800 Speaker 3: their four blowouts. I'm uneasy about this version of the 160 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 3: Huskies as I talked about, and ultimately, you know, Auburn 161 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:18,040 Speaker 3: best team in the field, probably my best team in 162 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 3: the nation. They're the full package for me. I mean 163 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:23,400 Speaker 3: throwing JP Pigs and Miles Kelly in the backcourt with 164 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 3: Jones and Baker Mazara. That gives you perimeter shooting, perimeter defense. 165 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 3: Broom will overwhelm opponents at the rim both ways. He'll 166 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:35,320 Speaker 3: play awesome drop coverage defense that'll force opponents into bad 167 00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 3: dribble creation, which will be hard to do against bullyball guards. 168 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:41,920 Speaker 3: They have playmaking spacing, three level offense, three level defense. 169 00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 3: They also have all those like around the edges advantages 170 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 3: you'd like to see with these teams, especially in the 171 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 3: early season. They're top fifty nationally in bench minutes, top 172 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 3: twenty five in experience, top forty in continuity, top fifty 173 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 3: in height. They take a lot of threes, they deny threes. 174 00:08:57,559 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 3: They win the shot volume battle from deep. They don't 175 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 3: turn the ball over. I love my thirty to one 176 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:06,000 Speaker 3: tickets on them to win the Natty, and I am 177 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 3: more than happy to take them at three to one 178 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 3: to win the Maui because they should be the favorite. 179 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 3: U Con should not be the favorite. 180 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 2: I'm just picturing you going into Horton's Donuts in the morning, 181 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 2: just war Eagle. When you show up, when you leave, 182 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 2: when you're waving somebody through a stop sign. War eagle 183 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 2: all around. Let me just kick the tires on some 184 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 2: of the other teams in this field. I'll take your temperature. 185 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 2: We'll start with North Carolina. A little wrinkle worth noting 186 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 2: right away for the Tar Hills. Great work by their 187 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 2: athletic director. They actually play at Hawaii, playing the Rainbow 188 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:37,440 Speaker 2: Warriors ahead of Maui, so they get extra time to 189 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 2: acclimate to the time zone change. They're gonna stay out there, 190 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 2: and the Rainbow Warriors are not just a speed bump. 191 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 2: They're off to a four h start, So in terms 192 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:46,839 Speaker 2: of a warm up game, it's perfect. The best player 193 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 2: for the Rainbow Warriors, You're gonna like it, Tanner Christiansen. 194 00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 2: He's been great for Hawaii seventeen and seven thus far 195 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 2: on the season, so I like what they did. They're 196 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:56,079 Speaker 2: the only team that's gonna get out there a few 197 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 2: days ahead of time. U and C also looked like 198 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:01,440 Speaker 2: a top five team against cam Elliott. Caddo is taking 199 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:04,720 Speaker 2: that step forward. The coach, Hubert Davis promised he's nearly 200 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 2: at sixteen and eight per game, really limited the turnovers. 201 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:10,079 Speaker 2: The only question that I have is that can their 202 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:13,199 Speaker 2: biggs content continue to take a step forward because collectively 203 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 2: they're putting it together. There's not one person who's doing it. 204 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 2: Jailing in Washington did the dirty work against KU, had 205 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:22,559 Speaker 2: a block and nine rebounds. Jalen Withers also had nine 206 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 2: rebounds against the Jayhawks. What are your thoughts on their 207 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:28,319 Speaker 2: upside in this particular tournament? The guard play potentials there 208 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:31,320 Speaker 2: with R. J. Davis being the offensive engine, But do 209 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 2: you think that they have enough on the front line 210 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:35,440 Speaker 2: to be able to hang with some of the teams 211 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 2: they're going to have to beat to be a champion here. 212 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:41,199 Speaker 3: I don't. I think they're I think they're just a 213 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 3: little inexperience on the front line. Like I like Withers, 214 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 3: I like it's upside, but it's clear that UNC is 215 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:48,440 Speaker 3: always going to be a backcourt oriented team, and they 216 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:52,560 Speaker 3: have a really good backcourt. I worry about They're gonna 217 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:54,319 Speaker 3: have to score a lot in transition. I'm not sure 218 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:56,680 Speaker 3: if they'll be able to do that consistently across three games. 219 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:59,440 Speaker 3: And I also worry a bit about their spacing issues 220 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 3: because Cadot just can't shoot the ball. So I ultimately 221 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:07,319 Speaker 3: I'm gonna pass on North Carolina. I think that they 222 00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 3: could be really good. I think it's gonna take a 223 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 3: few months. They're not a fully forded team like a lot. 224 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 3: Like a lot of these high majors are still finding 225 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:16,560 Speaker 3: an identity, especially in the transfer portal a transfer portal era. 226 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 3: So I'm always looking in the early season two target 227 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 3: teams with a lot of continuity and chemistry and cohesion, 228 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 3: and then fade teams with less. I think UNC is 229 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:27,360 Speaker 3: still working out kinks in the front court. 230 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:29,280 Speaker 2: All right, you pass on door number one? How a 231 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:32,440 Speaker 2: door number two? Iowa state. The Clones are doing something 232 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 2: that always impresses me, which all five starters are averaging 233 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 2: double digits. Mam Chilovich is a wonderful stretch for we 234 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 2: know this. Lipsey's a great defender. He already has nine 235 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:43,680 Speaker 2: steals through three games this year. As a team, they're 236 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 2: turning opponents over on an absurd twenty eight percent of 237 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:50,520 Speaker 2: their offensive trips. And Kurtz Jones and Kishon Gilbert they 238 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 2: can take over offensively. They don't, you know, I wouldn't 239 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:55,320 Speaker 2: rely on them on a nightly basis to do so, 240 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 2: but either one of them can catch fire and go 241 00:11:57,480 --> 00:11:59,400 Speaker 2: for twenty five plus if they knocked down enough three 242 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 2: point shots, and if you're playing Iowa State, you're putting 243 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 2: your faith in coach OTTs in three years names two 244 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 2: sweet sixteens, he's a hell of a coach. I certainly 245 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 2: think from an upside perspective, I know that they have 246 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:13,200 Speaker 2: maybe the highest floor in this tournament. I don't know 247 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 2: necessarily if they have the offensive firepower to consistently beat 248 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 2: all the teams that they're going to need to, but 249 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 2: at nine to two, it was very close for me 250 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:22,440 Speaker 2: to pull the trigger on them. 251 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:26,199 Speaker 3: Yeah. The great thing about Iowa State is that they 252 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 3: play awesome defense. Like we talked about their ball screen 253 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 3: blitz defenses just like Houston's. It's one of the best 254 00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:33,199 Speaker 3: in the nation. And they have a great point guard. 255 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 3: I mean, I love Taman Livesey, So, like you mentioned, 256 00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 3: that gives them a really high floor. They defend and 257 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:41,320 Speaker 3: he'll take care of the ball, he'll table set and 258 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:44,840 Speaker 3: they got scoring and they have continuity. But they play 259 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:47,320 Speaker 3: Auburn in the first round, so and I think they're 260 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 3: going to lose because Auburn just ripped apart the same 261 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 3: defense last week and now they get it on a 262 00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 3: neutral court. So yeah, I know I can't pull the 263 00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:59,560 Speaker 3: trigger there. If they somehow upset Auburn, then I would think, yes, 264 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:01,280 Speaker 3: they would probably win it all because I think that 265 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 3: they could take down Yukon. I just I think they're 266 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:05,040 Speaker 3: going to lose in that first round matchup. 267 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:07,839 Speaker 2: So in terms of my best bet, I also I'm 268 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:09,400 Speaker 2: with you on Oliver in a three to one. But 269 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 2: let's get into some of the long shots, because I 270 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 2: think Memphis being thirty to one is too good to 271 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:16,480 Speaker 2: pass up. The question I have right off the bat 272 00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:20,280 Speaker 2: from a skill perspective, does Memphis have the best two 273 00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:23,040 Speaker 2: guards in this tournament? PJ. Haggerty looks like an All 274 00:13:23,040 --> 00:13:25,520 Speaker 2: American at times as their go to score. When Tyree 275 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:28,160 Speaker 2: Hunter is limiting his turnovers, he can facilitate both for 276 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:30,720 Speaker 2: himself and for his teammates. They have a lot of 277 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 2: interchangeable bigs. Dane Danger averaging ten and seven as their 278 00:13:34,280 --> 00:13:37,760 Speaker 2: best big so far. The bugaboo here is pretty simple, 279 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 2: and it's Penny Hardaway. Is he going to be able 280 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 2: to be at least a competent coach for every game 281 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 2: of this tournament? Or is he going to cost them 282 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 2: in some of those late game situations, some of those 283 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:52,679 Speaker 2: you know get out the whiteboard draw up. You need 284 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:56,199 Speaker 2: a bucket kind of plays competing against some just absolute 285 00:13:56,559 --> 00:14:00,120 Speaker 2: elite future Hall of Fame coaches in this tournament. Of 286 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:03,319 Speaker 2: your thoughts on Penny and Memphis as a thirty thirty 287 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:05,599 Speaker 2: to one long shot to win Malli. 288 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:09,600 Speaker 3: Well, you said it, and the problem with Memphis is 289 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 3: ball handling and it's decision making on the offensive side 290 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 3: of the court, which has been a problem for Pennies 291 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 3: teams basically his entire tenure in Memphis. It's they don't 292 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 3: they don't like make the right decisions in a read 293 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 3: and react system. And now you've got two guards with 294 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 3: who aren't immune to turnover issues. I mean, especially like Hunter, 295 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 3: who has a little bit too high of a turnover 296 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:37,320 Speaker 3: rate considering is a lower usage role. The other problem 297 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 3: that I have with Memphis is that they're shooting way 298 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 3: above their head in the early going. I mean, for 299 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 3: a team with spacing and shooting issues, they're forty six 300 00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 3: percent from three even on low volume. That's totally unsustainable 301 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:51,080 Speaker 3: and like they probably should have lost to San Francisco. 302 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:53,920 Speaker 3: They have three Ken Palm Top one hundred wins, but 303 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 3: they needed to shoot nearly fifty percent from three to 304 00:14:55,920 --> 00:15:00,400 Speaker 3: get there. I think there's some regression coming, but I 305 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 3: will say that you're right. They have firepower and they 306 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 3: they just they can score a lot, and they can 307 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:10,960 Speaker 3: run the floor and they can pressure the rim. And 308 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:14,680 Speaker 3: if we're catching enough points in the first round against Yukon, 309 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:17,200 Speaker 3: I'm probably gonna bat Memphis like if I could get 310 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 3: like nine or ten. And I don't exactly love the 311 00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 3: matchup for Memphis against Yukon in that first round because 312 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 3: they're going to attack and transition and pressure the rim, 313 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:29,360 Speaker 3: which I think Reid and Johnson can more or less handle. 314 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 3: But you know, Yukon has played nobody. They are not 315 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:38,520 Speaker 3: battle tested. I think they're still over value in the 316 00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 3: markets because we haven't learned enough about this new roster, 317 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 3: and like we talk about, there's all these issues that 318 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 3: could come about. They will be facing their first real 319 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 3: test here. And meanwhile, you know, Penny took a similar 320 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 3: roster last year, a similar roster construction, and like an 321 00:15:56,560 --> 00:16:00,400 Speaker 3: entirely new roster, turned over the team and it was 322 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 3: talented but didn't have much chemistry, and he ran through 323 00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:06,440 Speaker 3: the non con I think he posted four Kempom top 324 00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:08,720 Speaker 3: seventy five wins the non con it's when you get 325 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 3: into conference play and you play those teams a second 326 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:15,040 Speaker 3: time that's where he really runs into issues. So I 327 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:17,440 Speaker 3: think that this could be a wake up call for Yukon, 328 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 3: and I think that Memphis could compete here. Even if 329 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 3: I don't love the matchup. The key is probably how 330 00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 3: the guards two good defensive guards and Haggerty and Hunter 331 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 3: hang with Yukon's like complex secondary actions on the perimeter. 332 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 3: I mean, they have to really be on top of it. 333 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:39,400 Speaker 3: They have to switch decisively inaccurately. But last year's Tigers 334 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:43,240 Speaker 3: underneath Hardaway did really well denying secondary actions. So I'd 335 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:45,280 Speaker 3: probably take my chances in that first round matchup, and 336 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 3: if they could somehow upset an overvalued Husky team, they've 337 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 3: got legs to cash a thirty to one long shot. 338 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you there, that's my best bet for 339 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 2: the first round. I would play him down to Memphis 340 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 2: plus eight. I'm also hoping to get him in that 341 00:16:57,160 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 2: nine to nine and a half point range, and it's 342 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,040 Speaker 2: not been profitable to get in front of the Yukon 343 00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 2: train over the past two years outside of two mid 344 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:07,359 Speaker 2: season Biggie swoons. But you hit on it. Who have 345 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:10,360 Speaker 2: they played the Ken Pom average for their opponents New Hampshire, 346 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:13,440 Speaker 2: Sacred Heart, lemoinne Go Dolphins, and East Texas A and 347 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 2: M three hundred and forty second in Ken Pom. So 348 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:20,399 Speaker 2: they have played absolutely nobody. And Hassan dea Era like, 349 00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 2: is he the right initiator for this offense? Because I 350 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:25,600 Speaker 2: think that's the issue here. In limited minutes. He's averaging 351 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:28,359 Speaker 2: almost three turnovers per game. Hurley talks about it beyond 352 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:30,639 Speaker 2: the rebounding. It was the turnovers against East Texas A 353 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:34,200 Speaker 2: and M nineteen in that game. If they get anywhere 354 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:37,120 Speaker 2: north of twelve, I'd love getting the points here because 355 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 2: it's going to create some easy buckets for Memphis in transition. 356 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:43,640 Speaker 2: And I think that can also help offset Memphis's biggest liability, 357 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 2: which you talked about ball handling. Over seventeen percent of 358 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:49,720 Speaker 2: their possessions end in giveaways. You can't do that when 359 00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:52,359 Speaker 2: you're trying to punch up against an elite team. But 360 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 2: if it's a wash, if they're within plus, you know, 361 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:57,359 Speaker 2: two or three of the turnover margin between you know, 362 00:17:57,440 --> 00:17:59,680 Speaker 2: Yukon and Memphis, I like their chances. I want to 363 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 2: take the points. 364 00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 1: Before we move on quick announcement for you guys, Action 365 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:06,119 Speaker 1: Network is running back our annual Black Friday sale, offering 366 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,720 Speaker 1: our best price of the year on a year long 367 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:13,360 Speaker 1: Action Pro subscription. So if you still aren't a Pro subscriber, 368 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 1: visit actionnetwork dot com slash Black Friday to get forty 369 00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:23,440 Speaker 1: dollars a year off of Pro and receive instant access 370 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:26,640 Speaker 1: to all of the picks and projections from myself, Colin Calabres, 371 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:29,840 Speaker 1: and our whole Action Network team. That's Actionnetwork dot Com 372 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:33,680 Speaker 1: slash Black Friday for the best price of the year 373 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 1: on Action Pro. 374 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 2: We're gonna switch over now to Battle for Atlantis the 375 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 2: other tournament. This one is starting on Wednesday, the day 376 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:46,119 Speaker 2: before Thanksgiving, and I gotta run you down the card. 377 00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:49,600 Speaker 2: In terms of the odds to win it outright, Gonzaga 378 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:52,560 Speaker 2: the favorite at plus one thirty five, Arizona plus one, eighty, 379 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:56,160 Speaker 2: Indiana six to one, Louisville ten to one, Oklahoma seventeen 380 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,840 Speaker 2: to one, Providence twenty five to one, West Virginia thirty 381 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,240 Speaker 2: five to one, and Dave It's in fifty five to one. 382 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:04,360 Speaker 2: The Zags are number three in the eight people. Indiana sixteen, 383 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 2: Arizona seventeen, Providence receiving votes in both poles. Let's start 384 00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:12,560 Speaker 2: with Gonzaga. Ken Palm and Me is top rated team. 385 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 2: I think it really comes down to if Ryan Nepard 386 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:17,720 Speaker 2: keeps playing like this, they can win the national championship. 387 00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 2: They have five starters in double digits, but Nebhard is 388 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 2: approaching an otherworldly nine to one assist to turnover ratio. 389 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 2: When the Zags aren't turning the ball over, they're gonna 390 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 2: just run away from just about anybody. Forget about this field, 391 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 2: anyone in the entire country. You go back and you 392 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:35,240 Speaker 2: watch that Baylor game. They drilled Scott Drews Bears by 393 00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:39,200 Speaker 2: thirty eight points. So I think they are rightly installed, 394 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,639 Speaker 2: unlike Yukon, which we think they're a little bit overvalued 395 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:44,920 Speaker 2: in the market. The Zags at plus one thirty five, 396 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 2: I think that's fair. Dropping down to Arizona at plus 397 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,399 Speaker 2: one eighty. I want to take your temperature on this team. 398 00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 2: They are the up tempo team of this tournament. Tommy 399 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:54,840 Speaker 2: Lloyd wants them to go, go go. I think I 400 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,719 Speaker 2: believe they're top four in tempo in the entire country. 401 00:19:57,840 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 2: But the question for me, I'm not putting any more 402 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 2: in the Wildcat camp with Caleb Blood playing like this, 403 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,640 Speaker 2: he's been dreadful this season. What are your thoughts on him? 404 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:07,879 Speaker 2: What is wrong with him? And can they play at 405 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 2: an elite level and replace him in the aggregate If 406 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:12,879 Speaker 2: he's not scoring fifteen to twenty points per game and 407 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:14,000 Speaker 2: being efficient. 408 00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:16,440 Speaker 3: He's just not shooting well in the early going. And 409 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:19,000 Speaker 3: that's with Caleb Love. You get the good and you 410 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:21,800 Speaker 3: get the bad. That's simple, right, Like he's gonna shoot 411 00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 3: your way into games, He's gonna shoot your way out 412 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:27,920 Speaker 3: of games. And that's why it's tough to back Arizona 413 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 3: in a tournament setting like this because they're a high 414 00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:34,480 Speaker 3: variant squad with a low floor, but they're going to 415 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 3: get priced like they're a favorite, and you just that's 416 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:38,600 Speaker 3: not the type of team that you want to back 417 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:42,480 Speaker 3: and tournaments like this because Love could legitimately shoot their 418 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:44,880 Speaker 3: way out of the game against Davidson, like they could 419 00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:48,680 Speaker 3: lose like kempop sub two fifty. I like Tommy Lloyd. 420 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,000 Speaker 3: I generally trust him. I think that Arizona will be 421 00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 3: in the mix because they're gonna win enough games throughout 422 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:57,880 Speaker 3: the season. But yeah, the floor is just so low. 423 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,080 Speaker 2: All right. How about Indiana This is my pick. I 424 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 2: think they're a great value at six to one. I'll 425 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:04,119 Speaker 2: tell you why I love them. From a roster perspective, 426 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 2: Miles Rice was one of the best portal gets in 427 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:08,800 Speaker 2: the entire country. At point guard. He's capable of twenty 428 00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 2: and five on any night, and he gives them critical 429 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:12,680 Speaker 2: three point shooting. This is still a team that does 430 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,240 Speaker 2: not fire up that many triples, but when he's feeling that, 431 00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:17,080 Speaker 2: he could give you three or four on the perimeter. 432 00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:20,480 Speaker 2: Mackenzie Imbaco can score in a lot of different ways. 433 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 2: Bryce and Tucker just put on a mid range clinic 434 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,879 Speaker 2: in their win over UNC Greensboro this week. Luke Goodie 435 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:27,639 Speaker 2: can be a forty percent three point shooter. I can 436 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:31,080 Speaker 2: go on about all the interchangeable parts and different leading 437 00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:33,200 Speaker 2: scorers they can have on a given night. My hang 438 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:35,920 Speaker 2: up with the Hoosiers is simple. It's Woodson one tournament 439 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,600 Speaker 2: win in three years in Bloomington the Empire Classic. Last 440 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 2: year they got drilled by twenty by Yukon. They end 441 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,000 Speaker 2: up bouncing back with a win over Louisville and the 442 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 2: consolation game, But I question his ability to win in 443 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:50,680 Speaker 2: a tournament setting this far from home with some expectations 444 00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:52,720 Speaker 2: that are now starting to bubble up thanks to their 445 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:54,960 Speaker 2: hot start to the season. But I think it's six 446 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,919 Speaker 2: to one with an Arizona team ahead of them in 447 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:00,439 Speaker 2: terms of the odds to win this tournament. That I 448 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:02,879 Speaker 2: agree with you. I think they could lose any game 449 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 2: if they end up, you know, making a run and 450 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:08,360 Speaker 2: having an opportunity to win this thing at six to one, 451 00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:10,520 Speaker 2: that that just seems a little too generous. So that's 452 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,240 Speaker 2: my pick. I could absolutely hear an argument for the 453 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,840 Speaker 2: Zags even if plus one thirty five. Usually it doesn't 454 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 2: make sense to tie up your money for that many 455 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 2: days for such a low payout, but they could end 456 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:21,840 Speaker 2: up being a significant favorite over every single team they 457 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:22,560 Speaker 2: play in the field. 458 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:25,679 Speaker 3: I'm out on the Hoosiers, and you're right, it's Woodson, 459 00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,320 Speaker 3: And the reason why is because he's so anti analytics. 460 00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:31,520 Speaker 3: He plays too much in tier based basketball. There aren't 461 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,240 Speaker 3: enough floor spacers on the team. The only floor spacer 462 00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 3: is probably McKenzie, and so what happens is that they 463 00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:42,720 Speaker 3: run into crowded interior lanes and Galloway and Rice aren't 464 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:46,880 Speaker 3: immune to turnovers. Neither is Renault or Ballow. Ballot's turned 465 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,679 Speaker 3: over the ball a good amount in nearly going because 466 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,400 Speaker 3: he's just you know, defense is just sagged down on them. 467 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:56,640 Speaker 3: So I like, like the good news is that CHUCKI 468 00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:58,159 Speaker 3: Hepburn and Ryan Smith they're not going to turn the 469 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:03,480 Speaker 3: ball over and they definitely have talent. I just they're 470 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,480 Speaker 3: they're trading threes for twos. You don't win that way. 471 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,240 Speaker 2: Now, who is your best bet to win this tournament 472 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,440 Speaker 2: or long shot? I know that you weren't as enamored 473 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:13,240 Speaker 2: with the Battle for Atlantis as you were for Malle, 474 00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:14,919 Speaker 2: but you have a tough play on the board. 475 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:17,640 Speaker 3: This is a tournament that I don't have a great 476 00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:20,080 Speaker 3: feel for any of the teams in yet except for Gonzaga. 477 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 3: I personally, I think in zag of rolls through the 478 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:25,159 Speaker 3: field too much for turning production too much continuity. They 479 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,480 Speaker 3: were my first national title bet that I placed back 480 00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,960 Speaker 3: in last April. Love that team, but I'm not going 481 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,040 Speaker 3: to bet them at plus one thirty just a ton 482 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 3: of money for no reason. Two squads that I think 483 00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 3: could be interesting as longer shot plays. First is Louisville 484 00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 3: ten to one, but both of these squads Louisville and Providence. 485 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:46,960 Speaker 3: Of the two teams i'd look at similar reasons why 486 00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 3: Louisville High variant squad filled with newcomers. The talent isn't 487 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:54,880 Speaker 3: awful though, and we all love Pat Kelsey, and they're 488 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 3: going to take a million threes. They're going to fifty 489 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,240 Speaker 3: six percent three point rate in the early going, and 490 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,240 Speaker 3: there due for a ton of positive regression there too. 491 00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:05,680 Speaker 3: They've shot thirty percent from deep in the early going. 492 00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:08,600 Speaker 3: Shot quality projects that closer to thirty eight percent based 493 00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:10,800 Speaker 3: on the quality of attempts taken. If you can take 494 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:13,600 Speaker 3: over half your shots from deep and hit thirty five percent, 495 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:15,880 Speaker 3: you have a shot to beat anyone on any given night. 496 00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,640 Speaker 3: It's also worth mentioning they ranked second in shot qualities 497 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:22,959 Speaker 3: Adjusted Efficiency Metric. They grade out well in spacing, shot selection, 498 00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,520 Speaker 3: shot making, RIM and three rate just smart analytical anti 499 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:29,960 Speaker 3: woodson ball. And if those things kind of break right 500 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:33,439 Speaker 3: across three days next week, who knows. They're going to 501 00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,959 Speaker 3: press a ton too and force turnovers and they're not 502 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:37,639 Speaker 3: going to turn the ball over, So they could really 503 00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:42,280 Speaker 3: win the shot volume battle, especially from three point land. Obviously, 504 00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,359 Speaker 3: the bugaboo is that they would have to beat Gonzaga, 505 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,720 Speaker 3: but again, they could beat anyone on any given night 506 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:52,200 Speaker 3: and upset an overwhelming favorite. With three point variants. Now 507 00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:55,720 Speaker 3: in the bottom half of the bracket, I do think 508 00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:57,760 Speaker 3: Providence could be looked worth a look. I mean, you're 509 00:24:57,760 --> 00:24:59,800 Speaker 3: getting what thirty to one on them in a wide 510 00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,359 Speaker 3: ho up and bottom of the bracket, and the Friars 511 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 3: are another team that's going to win the three point 512 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,480 Speaker 3: volume battle. They are. They rank eighth nationally and three 513 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,880 Speaker 3: point rate and top fifty nationally and three point rate allowed. 514 00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:13,960 Speaker 3: They're really physical, switch everything, half court defense that funnels 515 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 3: everything into isolation, and they take away transition buckets, which 516 00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,200 Speaker 3: could be good against like Oklahoma in the first round, 517 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,280 Speaker 3: which likes to run. It'll be great against Tommy Lloyd's 518 00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:25,359 Speaker 3: Wildcats in the second round, who also like to run, 519 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:30,000 Speaker 3: and Providence also high variant squad. Both these teams are 520 00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:34,679 Speaker 3: high variant squads, a lot of newcomers, where like the 521 00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:39,160 Speaker 3: ninety ninth percentile outcome is really high. Obviously for Providence, 522 00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:41,200 Speaker 3: I wish Bryce Hopkins was back. I think he's close 523 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,400 Speaker 3: to returning, but I can't be sure. But either way, 524 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,640 Speaker 3: those are the two teams i'd look further down the board. 525 00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:49,800 Speaker 2: Any favorite plays on Wednesday in that opening round game, 526 00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,280 Speaker 2: I know that we are going off with projections, but 527 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 2: it is kind of a blend of Evan mea Bart 528 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,560 Speaker 2: Torvik doing our best to get within a point point 529 00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:58,119 Speaker 2: and a half so you can go give us a 530 00:25:58,240 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 2: range that you would play. 531 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:05,200 Speaker 3: This first round match, Yeah, Providence again against Oklahoma, catching three, 532 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:09,480 Speaker 3: catching three and a half. Maybe just I'm not sold 533 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:13,640 Speaker 3: on the Sooners. They really only have like two producers, 534 00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:17,000 Speaker 3: two returning producers this year. Uh. I think they're really 535 00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:20,879 Speaker 3: going to miss Jevon McCollum his creation uh in a 536 00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,280 Speaker 3: pick and roll heavy system, and the three guards they 537 00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:27,359 Speaker 3: brought in are interesting mid majors with like high upsides 538 00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:32,240 Speaker 3: but not like overwhelming Duke Miles from high point. He's 539 00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,639 Speaker 3: probably the key to them sort of hitting their ceiling 540 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:36,399 Speaker 3: if you can elevate as a ball screen creator like 541 00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:40,000 Speaker 3: McCollum did, but like Kobe Elvis is a secondary scorer 542 00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:43,440 Speaker 3: you know, catch and shoot guy more Taylor, same thing 543 00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:47,240 Speaker 3: as secondary creator and Fears. Jeremiah Fears is a freshman. 544 00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:49,520 Speaker 3: They're probably going to rely on him a lot to 545 00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,120 Speaker 3: handle the ball and that could be bad in November. 546 00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:56,159 Speaker 3: And he's also a very exploitable point of attack defender 547 00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 3: because he's undersized, so I think you know the interior. 548 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:02,680 Speaker 3: Your defense has looked a little shaky. And while they've 549 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:04,960 Speaker 3: blown out four mid majors in the early going, those 550 00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 3: four teams shot twenty five percent from deep, and they 551 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:11,639 Speaker 3: allowed the seners allowed of really a lot of threes, 552 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:13,840 Speaker 3: like a high volume. So I expect sort of regression 553 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,320 Speaker 3: in that area, and it's tough to keep wig on 554 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,000 Speaker 3: the court. I'd maybe look towards Providence if we're catching 555 00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:19,840 Speaker 3: enough points. 556 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:22,679 Speaker 2: I'm actually going to wrap this up by going against 557 00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:25,560 Speaker 2: you on the Indiana Louisville opening round matchup all lay 558 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,000 Speaker 2: five with the Hoosiers. I still need to see it. 559 00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,439 Speaker 2: I understand with Pat Kelce all of his experience at 560 00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:32,680 Speaker 2: college at Charleston, you hit on it. They just bomb 561 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:34,960 Speaker 2: away from three the average over thirty attempts per game 562 00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,480 Speaker 2: in the last two years. That was top five in 563 00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:39,760 Speaker 2: terms of three point rate in the entire country. But 564 00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:41,560 Speaker 2: they're not falling. And the only time they played a 565 00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:43,400 Speaker 2: team in the Pulse this year, they get blown out 566 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,000 Speaker 2: against Tennessee. They only score fifty five points in that game. 567 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:49,119 Speaker 2: Terrence Edwards, their transfer from JMU, shot them out of 568 00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:52,000 Speaker 2: that game, going two for twelve. My issue with any 569 00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:55,719 Speaker 2: team that shoots that much. The variance thing is very 570 00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:58,159 Speaker 2: much real. I understand that if they start falling, they 571 00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,520 Speaker 2: could win that game by fifteen, but it just doesn't 572 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,639 Speaker 2: appear to me as of right now that they have 573 00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:05,040 Speaker 2: a secondary plan. I like teams that can beat you 574 00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:09,480 Speaker 2: in multiple ways, and really it's just basically counting on 575 00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:12,640 Speaker 2: a three point variance to heat up in a positive 576 00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:15,879 Speaker 2: way three thousand miles from your home floor for the 577 00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,440 Speaker 2: first time this season. I don't see it. I think 578 00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:22,240 Speaker 2: Indiana can win in different ways. And while I'm not 579 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,159 Speaker 2: sold on Woodson long term, I think what they have 580 00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:28,560 Speaker 2: this year in terms of roster flexibility, has an opportunity 581 00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 2: to at least get them deep into this tournament. So 582 00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:33,640 Speaker 2: I'll go ahead and lay the five there. Understandably, I'm 583 00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:35,320 Speaker 2: going to be a little bit nervous. I'm hoping that 584 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:37,879 Speaker 2: the three point variant gods don't burn me there early. 585 00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:40,600 Speaker 2: For Tana McGrath on My caliberis this has been the 586 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,240 Speaker 2: Big Bets on Campus podcast. This is our first college 587 00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,000 Speaker 2: hoops episode of the year. We have good news on 588 00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,160 Speaker 2: that front. Greg Wadell is going to be joining Stucky 589 00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:50,400 Speaker 2: and myself throughout the season. You're going to get two 590 00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 2: episodes per week from us before you know it, but 591 00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,800 Speaker 2: we sold college football to work through here during Feast week, 592 00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 2: so make sure to listen in for the Group of 593 00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,520 Speaker 2: five deep dive between Mike Iinelo and myself and then 594 00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:03,280 Speaker 2: the full card from the trash the garbage all the 595 00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,360 Speaker 2: way up to the Marquee matchups. That's Colin and Stuck 596 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,080 Speaker 2: leading into the Saturday Live show with Brett McMurphy. Thanks 597 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,880 Speaker 2: very much for listening, enjoy Thanksgiving and colleehoops his back. 598 00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:24,520 Speaker 3: Baby Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 599 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,800 Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 600 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 601 00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:31,560 Speaker 1: hundred Gambler