Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea, and I tell you it's really something
Speaker 2: out there, folks. It's been twenty four to seven for
Speaker 2: everyone at Bloomberg News. I think it's been written up nicely.
Speaker 2: Our read O Gagory, I know, is out with an
Speaker 2: interview in Semaphore about the absolute exhaustion of doing this
Speaker 2: truly twenty four to seven. Let me describe the day,
Speaker 2: and not my day, because nobody really cares what I'm doing,
Speaker 2: but the staff here in the trenches, someone like Emily
Speaker 2: Graffeo who joined us today from the equity team. It's
Speaker 2: not like eight hours, Oh there's a crisis, Let's extend
Speaker 2: out two or three hours. It's always there and the
Speaker 2: constraint in the modern day is I'm not going to
Speaker 2: look at my cell phone for twenty minutes. It's literally
Speaker 2: what it's become. And it starts early in the morning.
Speaker 2: We get through the day and there's a window somewhere
Speaker 2: in the vicinity of four point thirty. We're from four
Speaker 2: thirty to six twenty five. I'm making it up. There's
Speaker 2: a gap where the markets don't matter, and then it
Speaker 2: picks up right again at seven pm, as Tokyo opens,
Speaker 2: and we see what the dollar will do, We see
Speaker 2: what gold will do with the moonshot up thirty five
Speaker 2: hundred today, and also, quite frankly, the different dynamics, very
Speaker 2: sophisticated dynamics out there. John Ferroll sent me a chart
Speaker 2: today of euro Chinese were in Minby. I looked at
Speaker 2: it in ages and there it was. It's a hockey
Speaker 2: stick chart of strong euro and we are in ninby something.
Speaker 2: You know, the instabilities that you see over particularly with
Speaker 2: European trade, much a larger world trade than what we
Speaker 2: have in the United States on a percentage basis. We
Speaker 2: did look at the equity markets Brian Belski in a moment,
Speaker 2: but first Jeffrey de Graph of Renaissance Macro jeff de
Speaker 2: Graph on this bear market.
Speaker 3: Our bear market is not about being down twenty percent.
Speaker 3: It's not some magical number. It really is about the
Speaker 3: combination of the increase in volatility, the decrease in returns
Speaker 3: and what that's happening on a trend basis, and those
Speaker 3: are all sloping downwards now. So in our book, that
Speaker 3: is the definition of a bear market, and that really
Speaker 3: kicked in about a month ago. So it's not. This
Speaker 3: is not a new phenomenon. This has been something that's
Speaker 3: in play, and I do think that that's important as
Speaker 3: we think about it from a longer term perspective, the
Speaker 3: question is is has sentiment outdone itself in the very
Speaker 3: near term to get a really nice rally, And that's
Speaker 3: where we are. We think we can rally back to
Speaker 3: at least fifty five hundred, probably close to fifty seven hundred,
Speaker 3: and then the question will be how did we get there.
Speaker 3: Did we get there with momentum? Did we get there
Speaker 3: with a change in the attitude? If we didn't, then
Speaker 3: that's a rally to sell for those.
Speaker 2: Of you in the market. That's a brilliantly clear discussion
Speaker 2: and that is the foundation of Jeff to graph with
Speaker 2: the economics of Neil Dutta, his fundamental analysis and also
Speaker 2: his important technical analysis as well. One of the things
Speaker 2: that's important is to identify a trend or a point
Speaker 2: of debate. The word is distinction that I use the
Speaker 2: distinction between guest A and guest B. And right now,
Speaker 2: absolutely the primary distinction within what we do in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 2: and international relations is are we in a sea change
Speaker 2: shift in the this is from Thomas Kuhn. I'm going
Speaker 2: to guess nineteen forty eight at Harvard a paradigmatic shift
Speaker 2: or is it going to be Okay? This was harsh,
Speaker 2: It's going to get fixed and we get back to
Speaker 2: some kind of normal. It is a raging debate. I'm
Speaker 2: trying to keep myself out of the debate. It's not
Speaker 2: my job to have an opinion on it. I'm not
Speaker 2: going to give you opinion now. But I know a
Speaker 2: lot of you are laughing at me here because you
Speaker 2: can hear the opinion through the show. What a joy
Speaker 2: to speak to Brian Belski today, a BMO capital market
Speaker 2: who doesn't know how to spell paradigm.
Speaker 1: Many of my compatriots, colleagues and competitors are not staying
Speaker 1: in their lane. They've become now amateur psychologists that are
Speaker 1: diagnosing personality disorders, where they should actually be focusing more
Speaker 1: on what's happening in the economy in terms of the earnings.
Speaker 1: Here's what we here's what we know. We don't know
Speaker 1: exactly how long this is going to last. We've already
Speaker 1: positioned we meaning consensus, that this is going to take
Speaker 1: years and years and years and years to unfold. So
Speaker 1: I believe that the majority of portfolios strategists economists are
Speaker 1: already positioned for the worst case scenario. What we believe
Speaker 1: in our standing in terms of the investment Strategy group
Speaker 1: at BEMO, is this could all be over in a
Speaker 1: matter of days. We're not trying to be Pollyanna or flippant.
Speaker 1: We believe in the inherent strength of the US economy,
Speaker 1: the US stock market, and we still believe that we
Speaker 1: have the best assets in the world, and we're going
Speaker 1: to take negativity to add to those assets.
Speaker 2: Brian Belski, BEMO Capital Markets. I should also suggest us
Speaker 2: that he thinks the Minnesota Vikings are destined for the
Speaker 2: Super Bowl this year. An extraordinary time we're living in,
Speaker 2: of course, our team down at the meetings of the
Speaker 2: IMF and the World Bank, as well as a good
Speaker 2: team being put together for the remembrances of the Pope
Speaker 2: this week in Rome, Italy. We're across the nation. Look
Speaker 2: for us on YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts and on
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