1
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:16,600
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:17,640
Speaker 2: Single best idea, and I tell you it's really something

3
00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,639
Speaker 2: out there, folks. It's been twenty four to seven for

4
00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:23,599
Speaker 2: everyone at Bloomberg News. I think it's been written up nicely.

5
00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:26,160
Speaker 2: Our read O Gagory, I know, is out with an

6
00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:30,480
Speaker 2: interview in Semaphore about the absolute exhaustion of doing this

7
00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:33,200
Speaker 2: truly twenty four to seven. Let me describe the day,

8
00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:36,160
Speaker 2: and not my day, because nobody really cares what I'm doing,

9
00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:39,880
Speaker 2: but the staff here in the trenches, someone like Emily

10
00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:44,160
Speaker 2: Graffeo who joined us today from the equity team. It's

11
00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:47,680
Speaker 2: not like eight hours, Oh there's a crisis, Let's extend

12
00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:51,440
Speaker 2: out two or three hours. It's always there and the

13
00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:55,040
Speaker 2: constraint in the modern day is I'm not going to

14
00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:58,000
Speaker 2: look at my cell phone for twenty minutes. It's literally

15
00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:02,320
Speaker 2: what it's become. And it starts early in the morning.

16
00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:05,560
Speaker 2: We get through the day and there's a window somewhere

17
00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:08,280
Speaker 2: in the vicinity of four point thirty. We're from four

18
00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:11,800
Speaker 2: thirty to six twenty five. I'm making it up. There's

19
00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:14,600
Speaker 2: a gap where the markets don't matter, and then it

20
00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:17,520
Speaker 2: picks up right again at seven pm, as Tokyo opens,

21
00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:20,240
Speaker 2: and we see what the dollar will do, We see

22
00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:22,560
Speaker 2: what gold will do with the moonshot up thirty five

23
00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:27,440
Speaker 2: hundred today, and also, quite frankly, the different dynamics, very

24
00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:31,400
Speaker 2: sophisticated dynamics out there. John Ferroll sent me a chart

25
00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:36,440
Speaker 2: today of euro Chinese were in Minby. I looked at

26
00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:38,760
Speaker 2: it in ages and there it was. It's a hockey

27
00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:42,440
Speaker 2: stick chart of strong euro and we are in ninby something.

28
00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:45,800
Speaker 2: You know, the instabilities that you see over particularly with

29
00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:49,600
Speaker 2: European trade, much a larger world trade than what we

30
00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:53,120
Speaker 2: have in the United States on a percentage basis. We

31
00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:55,600
Speaker 2: did look at the equity markets Brian Belski in a moment,

32
00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:59,080
Speaker 2: but first Jeffrey de Graph of Renaissance Macro jeff de

33
00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:00,920
Speaker 2: Graph on this bear market.

34
00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,000
Speaker 3: Our bear market is not about being down twenty percent.

35
00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:06,800
Speaker 3: It's not some magical number. It really is about the

36
00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:10,760
Speaker 3: combination of the increase in volatility, the decrease in returns

37
00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:13,000
Speaker 3: and what that's happening on a trend basis, and those

38
00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:15,800
Speaker 3: are all sloping downwards now. So in our book, that

39
00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:17,720
Speaker 3: is the definition of a bear market, and that really

40
00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:19,840
Speaker 3: kicked in about a month ago. So it's not. This

41
00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:21,919
Speaker 3: is not a new phenomenon. This has been something that's

42
00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:23,960
Speaker 3: in play, and I do think that that's important as

43
00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:26,400
Speaker 3: we think about it from a longer term perspective, the

44
00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:29,280
Speaker 3: question is is has sentiment outdone itself in the very

45
00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:33,000
Speaker 3: near term to get a really nice rally, And that's

46
00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:35,040
Speaker 3: where we are. We think we can rally back to

47
00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:37,760
Speaker 3: at least fifty five hundred, probably close to fifty seven hundred,

48
00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:39,799
Speaker 3: and then the question will be how did we get there.

49
00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:41,639
Speaker 3: Did we get there with momentum? Did we get there

50
00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:43,960
Speaker 3: with a change in the attitude? If we didn't, then

51
00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:45,760
Speaker 3: that's a rally to sell for those.

52
00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:49,080
Speaker 2: Of you in the market. That's a brilliantly clear discussion

53
00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:53,040
Speaker 2: and that is the foundation of Jeff to graph with

54
00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:57,120
Speaker 2: the economics of Neil Dutta, his fundamental analysis and also

55
00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:02,079
Speaker 2: his important technical analysis as well. One of the things

56
00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:05,239
Speaker 2: that's important is to identify a trend or a point

57
00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:08,760
Speaker 2: of debate. The word is distinction that I use the

58
00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:13,080
Speaker 2: distinction between guest A and guest B. And right now,

59
00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:18,720
Speaker 2: absolutely the primary distinction within what we do in economics, finance, investment,

60
00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:24,440
Speaker 2: and international relations is are we in a sea change

61
00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:28,360
Speaker 2: shift in the this is from Thomas Kuhn. I'm going

62
00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:32,679
Speaker 2: to guess nineteen forty eight at Harvard a paradigmatic shift

63
00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:36,040
Speaker 2: or is it going to be Okay? This was harsh,

64
00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:38,480
Speaker 2: It's going to get fixed and we get back to

65
00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:42,680
Speaker 2: some kind of normal. It is a raging debate. I'm

66
00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:45,320
Speaker 2: trying to keep myself out of the debate. It's not

67
00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:47,800
Speaker 2: my job to have an opinion on it. I'm not

68
00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:49,720
Speaker 2: going to give you opinion now. But I know a

69
00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:53,080
Speaker 2: lot of you are laughing at me here because you

70
00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:56,040
Speaker 2: can hear the opinion through the show. What a joy

71
00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:59,200
Speaker 2: to speak to Brian Belski today, a BMO capital market

72
00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,480
Speaker 2: who doesn't know how to spell paradigm.

73
00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:06,960
Speaker 1: Many of my compatriots, colleagues and competitors are not staying

74
00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:10,880
Speaker 1: in their lane. They've become now amateur psychologists that are

75
00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:15,440
Speaker 1: diagnosing personality disorders, where they should actually be focusing more

76
00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:18,320
Speaker 1: on what's happening in the economy in terms of the earnings.

77
00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:20,680
Speaker 1: Here's what we here's what we know. We don't know

78
00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,560
Speaker 1: exactly how long this is going to last. We've already

79
00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:26,240
Speaker 1: positioned we meaning consensus, that this is going to take

80
00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:28,840
Speaker 1: years and years and years and years to unfold. So

81
00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:33,800
Speaker 1: I believe that the majority of portfolios strategists economists are

82
00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:37,280
Speaker 1: already positioned for the worst case scenario. What we believe

83
00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:40,040
Speaker 1: in our standing in terms of the investment Strategy group

84
00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:42,400
Speaker 1: at BEMO, is this could all be over in a

85
00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:45,919
Speaker 1: matter of days. We're not trying to be Pollyanna or flippant.

86
00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:49,840
Speaker 1: We believe in the inherent strength of the US economy,

87
00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:51,920
Speaker 1: the US stock market, and we still believe that we

88
00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:54,159
Speaker 1: have the best assets in the world, and we're going

89
00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:56,880
Speaker 1: to take negativity to add to those assets.

90
00:04:57,040 --> 00:05:00,200
Speaker 2: Brian Belski, BEMO Capital Markets. I should also suggest us

91
00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:03,240
Speaker 2: that he thinks the Minnesota Vikings are destined for the

92
00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:07,880
Speaker 2: Super Bowl this year. An extraordinary time we're living in,

93
00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,080
Speaker 2: of course, our team down at the meetings of the

94
00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,240
Speaker 2: IMF and the World Bank, as well as a good

95
00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:17,080
Speaker 2: team being put together for the remembrances of the Pope

96
00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:22,240
Speaker 2: this week in Rome, Italy. We're across the nation. Look

97
00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:26,280
Speaker 2: for us on YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts and on

98
00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:37,320
Speaker 2: YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea