1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jai Ley. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:33,519 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Right now. 5 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 1: We hope he says more than the president. Carston Rescue 6 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:40,279 Speaker 1: with us with I n G thrilled that he could 7 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:44,880 Speaker 1: join us today from uh the ECB meetings. Carston, why 8 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 1: is the euro higher off of the drug comments? That 9 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:52,199 Speaker 1: is very tricky collectually drug You didn't say anything, so 10 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: it seems that they still find him sounding hawkers, which 11 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 1: honestly I did not, because to what he said is 12 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 1: that there's still a big chance that we've an extension 13 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:04,320 Speaker 1: off QBA September this year. I saw exactly the same 14 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 1: of the forty headlines or so that came out, folks. Carson, 15 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:10,520 Speaker 1: that's exactly the one that I saw. Or can Mr 16 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 1: Mnution change the rule book and the calendar for Mr Drony? 17 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 1: Can I think that that is? That seems to be 18 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 1: one of one of the reasons that actually the misdimmunution 19 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:27,399 Speaker 1: is pushing the ECB to actually sound bart dovish in 20 00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:30,319 Speaker 1: the end in the in the weeks ahead. When we 21 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:32,680 Speaker 1: see this in the course, it harkens back to a 22 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 1: legacy before Mr drog and certainly not within dragging discourse, 23 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:43,319 Speaker 1: and that is brutal moves of Mr triche Ish as 24 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 1: on the edge of brutal, isn't it or or are 25 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 1: we at a point where we can use that famous 26 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 1: troche word. No, I don't think we're we're at the 27 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 1: edge of brutal. To be honest, um, you know what, 28 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 1: what do you always have to look at? I think 29 00:01:56,720 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 1: the the euro dollics change rates somehow exaggerates the exchange 30 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: rate moves if you take a trade weight at your 31 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 1: exchange rate. The strengthening of the year has been much weaker, 32 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 1: I think, with only half the one of the year 33 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 1: against the dollar, which puts it a bit into perspective. 34 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:14,680 Speaker 1: And we've seen earlier research by the ECB which says 35 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:18,520 Speaker 1: that actually the EASYB thinks the stronger Euro has less 36 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 1: of a negative impact on growth and it used to 37 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: have in the past. I think has to do with 38 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 1: hadging activities, more invoicing in the euro, etcetera, etcetera. I 39 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:30,919 Speaker 1: think we can live with it for a while, for 40 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 1: that's the right where I wanted to go. And that's 41 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 1: a perfect definition here of for a while. What's the 42 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 1: exogenous shock that would get in the way of for 43 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:45,639 Speaker 1: a while? Um? The shock would be I think more 44 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 1: more pushed from from the from the protectionist side of 45 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 1: the US. UM somehow a continuation of the current momentum, 46 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 1: basically on on the side of the year. So if 47 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:00,120 Speaker 1: if we were to move to to one third, as 48 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:02,360 Speaker 1: you also remember from the past, I think the level 49 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 1: of one more the level when you when you start 50 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:08,799 Speaker 1: hearing French companies screaming out, I think that would be 51 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 1: the more they We greatly appreciate the quick perspective of 52 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 1: Carson Brazils give I n G from Frankfort. This is 53 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 1: an annual visit. It is with a gentleman who carries 54 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 1: the August title Emeritus emeritus. He's been put out the pasture. 55 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 1: That's what happens when you win a Nobel prize. Except 56 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 1: everyone in the racket known as economics knows that Angus 57 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 1: Deton will never ever ever be put out the pasture. 58 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 1: His important work within case over the last thirty six 59 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 1: months on America's inequality on the shocking dying of the 60 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: middle class and particularly white men has been exceptionally important. 61 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 1: There's just no doubt about that. Whatever your politics, people 62 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 1: have been moved by Professor Diaton's uh, we're thrilled to 63 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 1: have you here. You have a history and I think 64 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 1: of Robert Fogel and others of actually looking at society. 65 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:27,720 Speaker 1: Is this another study of a screwed up, messed up 66 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:31,800 Speaker 1: nation or is there something unique about this agony of 67 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:35,159 Speaker 1: our middle class. Well, I think it's a screwed up nation, 68 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 1: but I think that so one of the huge questions 69 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: is why is it just um, white people, Um, it's 70 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:46,279 Speaker 1: actually men and women. And why are we not getting 71 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:48,680 Speaker 1: it in Europe? I mean, Europe lives in the same 72 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:51,719 Speaker 1: globalizing we're all. They have the same Chinese competition, they've 73 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:54,599 Speaker 1: at the same China shock um that we've had in 74 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:58,840 Speaker 1: the U S. But you just don't see the suffering um. 75 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 1: And of course it's also a big part of this 76 00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 1: story is it's for people who do not have a 77 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 1: four year b A. The four year b A elite 78 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 1: is sort of exempt from these catastrophes. And to be clear, 79 00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:13,800 Speaker 1: you're not talking about say the top two hundred and 80 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,480 Speaker 1: fifty schools, including a small school in New Jersey that 81 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:20,160 Speaker 1: is orange and black. When you say be a you're 82 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:25,919 Speaker 1: talking about general undergraduate degree from any institution. That's the 83 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:31,800 Speaker 1: social divide. So we're not looking at Princeton versus, you know, 84 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:36,240 Speaker 1: the community college. Let's go to Let's go to the Europe. Um, 85 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 1: let's go to the europe model? Is this because of 86 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: our lackey in individualism? Thomas Jefferson and others wanted us 87 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:47,400 Speaker 1: to be individualistic? And as Professor Deaton, as you know, 88 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 1: that's worked for hundreds of years. Does it now not work? Um, 89 00:05:52,400 --> 00:05:55,280 Speaker 1: there's signs of it not working. And I'm very surprised. 90 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:59,080 Speaker 1: And UM, you know, many of my friends on the 91 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:01,839 Speaker 1: left would argue because they have a much better social 92 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 1: safety net in Europe than we do in the United States. 93 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 1: And that's a serious argument. UM. My own view is 94 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:13,920 Speaker 1: that policy towards labor in the United States is much 95 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:16,599 Speaker 1: much more hostile than it is in Europe. It's much 96 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:20,159 Speaker 1: more pro corporatist. And the fact that the share of 97 00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:25,080 Speaker 1: por corporate um of profits in GDP, which has been 98 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:27,559 Speaker 1: stable for a very very long time, has suddenly begun 99 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 1: to rise. Um. The share of workers in GDP is 100 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:35,479 Speaker 1: is really falling, and there's no place, it seems for 101 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 1: people who don't have a b A. You know, since 102 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 1: the reason all the jobs that have happened in America. 103 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 1: Since I'm gonna break in and make some news here, 104 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:47,279 Speaker 1: do you have any friends in the right Yes, Oh, okay, 105 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 1: So we like to be fair and balance here. If 106 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:52,159 Speaker 1: I have a labor economist at the first order, say 107 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 1: Edward Lazier, Stanford University, or I have a labor economist 108 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 1: on the left, I'll let you pick who it. I mean, 109 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:02,720 Speaker 1: maybe James K. Galbraith down to Texas Austin. They have 110 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 1: a lot of common ground. Why is labor so weak 111 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 1: and so permanently weak in America? I don't know, um, 112 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 1: and that that's one of the questions that we'd really 113 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 1: like to know the answer to. It's not been permanently 114 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 1: weak forever, but it just seems like a whole bunch 115 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 1: of things have come together. Um. Technology seems to be 116 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 1: enabling firms to behave more like monopolies to raise their margins. Well, 117 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:34,240 Speaker 1: let's flip that over. Is it a monopximistic tendency, folks. 118 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 1: Monopsimism is take a rubber plantation in Singapore that controls 119 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 1: the price of the rubber they take in from the farmers. Now, 120 00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 1: it may not be direct monopsony, but is it those 121 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: certain features Professor Dton that lead to low labor power 122 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 1: and no wage growth? Yes? I think so. I mean, 123 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:55,160 Speaker 1: look at hospitals there's been a shortage of nurses for 124 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 1: like forty years. How could that possibly be? And it's 125 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:01,160 Speaker 1: because someone's holding down wages. And I think that's happening 126 00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 1: throughout and I think that's become much easier to do. 127 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:06,480 Speaker 1: So how do you respond to what we hear? There's 128 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 1: a job shortage in America and a lot of people, 129 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 1: including full disclosure folks myself, saying, jeez, you just you 130 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:17,400 Speaker 1: just raise wages and people show up at the door. 131 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 1: Does does that's you know? Dorn Bush Fisher Stars econ 132 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 1: one oh one. Right, gave it. You gave the answer 133 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:26,400 Speaker 1: I would have given. People love to talk about their 134 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: being a shortage of labor, but they never like to 135 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:31,960 Speaker 1: talk about raising wage Why, well, why do you think? Well, 136 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 1: I'm asking why why why can't we rage wages? Granted, okay, 137 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:39,079 Speaker 1: one percent real GDP we can't, But even it is 138 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 1: stained two four two point five. We're above potential GDP. 139 00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 1: Why can't we get wage growth? I think some of 140 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 1: it is because of the increasing monopoly power and the 141 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 1: lack of competition in American industry. So it's much easier 142 00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 1: to have an easy life behind your I T related 143 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 1: barriers than it is to um, you know, produce more, 144 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 1: to invest, to hire more people. Katherine Man of brand 145 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:05,400 Speaker 1: Ice and at O E. C D. She's now going 146 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:08,000 Speaker 1: to sit here very quickly here up, sir. She would 147 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 1: suggest we are seeing too much combination in American business 148 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 1: of the people at Davos. Is there a sense of 149 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 1: the nineteen thirties? Is Andrew Mellon alive today? I think 150 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:19,600 Speaker 1: there really is, and I think we have to worry 151 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 1: about it. And I've been reading a lot of stuff 152 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:24,680 Speaker 1: about what happened in the nineteen thirties. Well, there's a 153 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 1: guy that came out of Princeton about and helped me 154 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 1: her B. B. E. R n A. Bernanke. That's it. 155 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:35,560 Speaker 1: Read Bernankey History. Maybe they'll have a secret. He is 156 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 1: a laure at angersty Eaton and very much working on 157 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:55,960 Speaker 1: important themes for all of America. Such movements in the market, 158 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 1: we thought we should bring in someone with some perspective 159 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 1: on this. Robert Sinch has held out a shingle at 160 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:07,439 Speaker 1: various firms, including with Alan Schwartz inventing cross asset research 161 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:10,320 Speaker 1: at bear Stearns. He commanded the ship at Bank of 162 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:14,079 Speaker 1: America and too many UH departments for a while and 163 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 1: is now at Amber's pierpot. Robert, since you have seen 164 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 1: brutal is this becoming? Is this becoming a troche like 165 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 1: brutal dollar move? Uh? Good morning, guys. I think it 166 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:32,920 Speaker 1: is um. And the question is does anybody care um? 167 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 1: For those of us with a few gray hairs, um uh. 168 00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:40,720 Speaker 1: We can remember the seven stock market crash UM, and 169 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 1: there were a lot of factors going on then, flattening 170 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:46,440 Speaker 1: yield curve almost an inverted yield curve ex. But many 171 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:51,600 Speaker 1: people think that the precipitating catalyst for that was in 172 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:54,840 Speaker 1: fact a pretty public spat between the US and Germany 173 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: over currency policy after the Plasa chord and the Louver 174 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 1: Accord and and the weakness of the dollar and the US, 175 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 1: you know, indicating that not really they were not really 176 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 1: inclined to do much. So the question is you know 177 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:10,320 Speaker 1: what's going on now? Tom Keene in Davos as well. 178 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,319 Speaker 1: You heard what they were talking about trade and so on. 179 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 1: And of course we're talking with Bob Sinsch of Amherst 180 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 1: pure Pont and he's been writing about import prices. That's 181 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 1: all about trade. And I'm wondering if Bob, you see 182 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 1: any increase in inflation in the United States as a 183 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:31,400 Speaker 1: result of weaker dollar and higher import prices. Well, you know, 184 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 1: my colleagues ste Stanley is looking for higher inflation for 185 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 1: for sort of the key measures to to get through 186 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 1: two percent this year. Um, look, I don't think that 187 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:46,320 Speaker 1: import prices are a dramatic concern right now. The latest 188 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 1: reading in December is that import prices for manufactured goods 189 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 1: was up about one point eight percent year over year. 190 00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 1: And you say, well, where's the where's the pressure there? 191 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 1: Where's the problem? I think the issue was you go 192 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 1: back two years ago when they were down about five 193 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 1: percent year over year. So we import prices had been 194 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:09,560 Speaker 1: or have been, a depressing influence on domestic inflation and 195 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 1: that's going away. That's not there anymore. So, so yeah, 196 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:15,560 Speaker 1: I think there is some concern as we go forward 197 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 1: that rather than it being a depressing influence in port 198 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 1: prices could be able to slightly higher. Bobson's just too 199 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 1: little time here was such a busy schedule very quickly. 200 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:29,200 Speaker 1: Can you acquire the euro today? Long? Can you believe 201 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:33,680 Speaker 1: in a strong euro and initiate trades today? Boy? I 202 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:37,240 Speaker 1: think that's awfully tough. The momentum of the upside is 203 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 1: pretty substantial. And I would just note the long term 204 00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 1: downtrend from the highs back in two thousand and eight 205 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 1: comes in today. So that's that's what we like. Bob 206 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:51,400 Speaker 1: sish to four digits. Where else can you get that? 207 00:12:51,840 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 1: But Bloomberg Surveillance from New York from Davos. She is 208 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 1: always an annual visit. We speak to him through the year. 209 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 1: But there is a wonderful tradition of the value add 210 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:18,439 Speaker 1: of Daniel Jurgen of i h S Market of course 211 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:21,520 Speaker 1: their vice chairman, and of course he acclaimed author of 212 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:25,320 Speaker 1: the prize UH and a modest book called Commanding Heights 213 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 1: and another one the quest in others. Is there a 214 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:32,680 Speaker 1: new book coming up about done? That's the title of it. 215 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 1: Actually that might work, That might work. Yeah, I think 216 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 1: that it's a whole self help. But you could take 217 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:39,560 Speaker 1: the fire in the fury. But that one's already gone. 218 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:41,840 Speaker 1: Pim Fox in New York. I'm Tom Keenan Dabas with 219 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:47,440 Speaker 1: UH Dr Jurgen a few years ago. Page three, Commanding Heights. 220 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:50,440 Speaker 1: The new rules of the game. What are the rules 221 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 1: of the game we will hear from President Trump tomorrow? 222 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 1: I think they are different rules of the game. Obviously 223 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 1: he's here, he's going to dominate the dialogue. He's gonna 224 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:02,680 Speaker 1: challenge I think quit President g. Pink said last year 225 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:06,000 Speaker 1: here UH. And he's gonna talk about America first in 226 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 1: a different view towards trade, and he's going to claim 227 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:11,800 Speaker 1: success with what we're seeing in the global economy and 228 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 1: in markets. Is it a clash of civilizations? Is it 229 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 1: the death of the Washington Consensus? Uh? That's a very 230 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 1: interesting I think, UH. I think to some degree it 231 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 1: is in terms of UH openness, kind of redefining trade relationships. UH. 232 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:30,400 Speaker 1: And a lot of it is obviously focused particularly trade 233 00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: with UH with China, but you know Mexico, Canada and NAFTA, 234 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 1: all the contention around that. And yet so many people 235 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 1: in America, whether they're farmers, whether they're UH in the 236 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:45,800 Speaker 1: energy business, whether they're in UH manufacturing, are very dependent 237 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 1: upon this this napt assistant that's come into existence. Daniel Jurgen, 238 00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 1: I'm wondering if the expansion of fossil fuel production, particularly 239 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 1: in the United States, but also efforts in places such 240 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 1: as Mexico, UH, and also the use of renewable energy, 241 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 1: why is it then that oil prices and fossil fuel 242 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 1: prices remain elevated. The first thing to say is that 243 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 1: we're really at a historic moment. UH. In nineteen seventy one, 244 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 1: the head of the Texas Railroad Commission, which ran sort 245 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 1: of like O pre OPEC, said, UH, Texas was this 246 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 1: great warrior that had risen again and never rise again. Well, 247 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 1: in the last four years, Texas oil production is almost quadrupled, 248 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 1: and if Texas itself was a OPEC country would be 249 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 1: number four in OPEC. So this is the rise of 250 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 1: US production is a hugely significant thing. And this month 251 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:36,560 Speaker 1: or next month it's going to exceed what was the 252 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 1: historic rate UH hit in nineteen seventy What's happening now 253 00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:43,720 Speaker 1: is what you see in the strong global economy uh 254 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:47,480 Speaker 1: as UH Here at Davos, as Tom knows UH. They've 255 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 1: kept raising the global forecast for economic growth. We've had 256 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:54,200 Speaker 1: high demand numbers in our projections. Other people are now 257 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 1: catching up with that. And you've had a lot of 258 00:15:57,280 --> 00:16:01,640 Speaker 1: this discipline by OPEC. There's some geopolitical risk reflected in Venezuela, 259 00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:05,320 Speaker 1: and the financial markets are are writing commodities and oil up, 260 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 1: so all of those things. But I think the big 261 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 1: question mark and I've heard it a lot this week 262 00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 1: at OPEC and got that question a lot, is when 263 00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:16,280 Speaker 1: we're gonna start to see us this new continuing surge 264 00:16:16,280 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 1: in US production. What's that going to do to price? 265 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:21,080 Speaker 1: So what you're seeing today as a price may well 266 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:23,080 Speaker 1: not be the price in two or three months. So 267 00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:26,880 Speaker 1: how do you answer those, uh, those questions, the questioned 268 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 1: about why the prices are up? Well also when I 269 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 1: mean if you look at oil prices today over sixties 270 00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:37,480 Speaker 1: six dollars for West Texas intermediate and indeed natural gas 271 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 1: although not necessarily a global commodity yet almost three and 272 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 1: a half dollars per million BTU. Well, I think it's 273 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 1: it goes to those reasons, starting with the strength of demand, 274 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 1: uh being really picking it up on top of it, 275 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: which are all these other factors uh that are at work. 276 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, it's cycles. Prices go down, they 277 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:00,720 Speaker 1: set the stage for prices to go up. Part of 278 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 1: the magic of the prize. And let me stay to 279 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,879 Speaker 1: those of you younger, I've got a royalty check that 280 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:08,640 Speaker 1: I still have in cash from commanding heights. Have talked 281 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 1: it up so much over the years, I would suggest 282 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:13,720 Speaker 1: a rereading of the prize is how old is it? Dan? 283 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:20,160 Speaker 1: Over twenty years old, and yet it's still shockingly fresh 284 00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 1: on the political economics of oil and one of the 285 00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 1: great themes of the prize, which one of the Politzer Prize, 286 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:29,720 Speaker 1: is the idea of vacuums where countries and leaderships and 287 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 1: nations pull away from regions, they pull away from spheres. 288 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 1: After World War One, whatever is President Trump risking your 289 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 1: substantially a vacuum of pulling away from selected global relationships. 290 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:47,639 Speaker 1: I've heard a lot from Asian countries here that the 291 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 1: canceling of tpp UH really has created a vacuum in 292 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:57,400 Speaker 1: China as the natural economic dominating partners is filling that vacuum, 293 00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:00,520 Speaker 1: whether you're looking at the one belt, one row, or 294 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:04,479 Speaker 1: just a whole trading relationship. So uh there is that 295 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 1: gets a rising power versus the dominant I was having 296 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 1: a beverage of my choice. After dinner and uh, a 297 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:14,119 Speaker 1: gentleman named Freeza Cary walked up and we talked and 298 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:16,159 Speaker 1: talked and talked, and really pin one of the themes 299 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 1: here as the President speaks tomorrow, is almost a post 300 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:24,320 Speaker 1: American world. Well that could be, although everyone's gonna be 301 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:28,879 Speaker 1: listening for the US President when he speaks tomorrow. Daniel Jorgan, 302 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:31,440 Speaker 1: I got a question to you having to do with 303 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:36,480 Speaker 1: the world's energy as supplies. At a certain point, don't 304 00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 1: Iran and the Saudi Arabia have to call some kind 305 00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:44,439 Speaker 1: of I don't know, truce or some kind of agreement 306 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:47,919 Speaker 1: so that they will stop sniping because it isn't oil 307 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:51,480 Speaker 1: really all they have to export the gain foreign currency. Well, 308 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 1: I think that's the case. But I think this is 309 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 1: a profound Uh. This is a clash of civilizations between 310 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,919 Speaker 1: Iran and Saudi Arabia. Uh. So evident here is this 311 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:07,719 Speaker 1: new relationship between Saudi Arabia and Russia. And Russia is interesting. 312 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,440 Speaker 1: The only country actually speaking of your vacuum, that can 313 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:12,879 Speaker 1: talk to Tel Aviv, can talk to Tehran, and can 314 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 1: talk to Riad all at the same time. Can the 315 00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:20,400 Speaker 1: president address Russia given his distractions in Washington? I think 316 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:23,199 Speaker 1: it's very difficult. I mean, any subject about Russia is 317 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,720 Speaker 1: it's Russia's turned into a domestic political issue as opposed 318 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 1: to also the great great power relationship. We have so 319 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 1: much to talk about, Daniel Jurgen with us, with I H. S. Market. 320 00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:36,120 Speaker 1: I can't say enough about the caliber of the research 321 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:39,399 Speaker 1: and their conferences. He has surrounded himself with the best 322 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 1: and brightest Yes, and petroleum and hydra carbon's, but much 323 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:45,919 Speaker 1: much more, PIM. And the time we've got here, can 324 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 1: you just give me one vanilla stock story. I was 325 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:52,520 Speaker 1: looking at Comcast I saw, I believe I saw Brian 326 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 1: Roberts last night. Give me a stock story, PIM, to 327 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:58,720 Speaker 1: get me away from Davos. Babel, Oh, come on, getting 328 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 1: to your your tractor out a pillar shares. They are 329 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 1: right now, uh strong sales momentum in eighteen And yes 330 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:08,240 Speaker 1: they do use fossil fuel in order to power a 331 00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:12,439 Speaker 1: lot of those farm equipment and manufacturing equipment, you know, 332 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:14,679 Speaker 1: back hoose and so on. And you know everything that 333 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 1: you're touching, everything that you see in Davos is a 334 00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:20,480 Speaker 1: result of fossil fuel. It didn't grow there. Well, that's 335 00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 1: a good thing, except for this talk about when we 336 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:26,040 Speaker 1: invented Bloomberg surveillance at bloom moregun the economy, and I'll 337 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 1: tell you, folks, it was something there was a lot 338 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 1: of pushback, thoughtful conversation with people, and I said there 339 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 1: would be times for that would be appropriate. This is 340 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 1: one of them, and are many decades history, Daniel Jurgen 341 00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:41,440 Speaker 1: with this. What an honor PIM to sit with Dr 342 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:45,000 Speaker 1: Jorgan and listen to this unique moment at Davos and 343 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 1: frankly unique moment and international relations. Daniel, You're gonna you 344 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 1: have such perspective on this. I heard the words confront 345 00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:57,400 Speaker 1: enough is enough in the wilderness by ourselves and at 346 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,240 Speaker 1: the end the President United States spoke about respect act, 347 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:04,440 Speaker 1: soft power versus hard power. Is this a time where 348 00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:08,800 Speaker 1: hard power can work for any nation and particularly for America? Well, 349 00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,200 Speaker 1: it's certainly become more than mix. I mean. The first 350 00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 1: striking thing, Tom is the way, uh President Trump has 351 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:16,960 Speaker 1: stolen the show here at Davos. I mean, normally Friday 352 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,640 Speaker 1: is the day everybody leaves. Now he's building up and 353 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:22,480 Speaker 1: waiting for you know, what is Trump's vision of the world? 354 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 1: And did we just hear it? But did we? Greg 355 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 1: Val wrote about this did we just hear that? And 356 00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:30,920 Speaker 1: that's strident's yes, that you know that it's either you're 357 00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,520 Speaker 1: you're with us or you're not, I mean not compromising, 358 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 1: uh and being you know the same projecting onto the 359 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,439 Speaker 1: world scene and uh, you know, eyes will be on 360 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:43,480 Speaker 1: this because this is such a global setting. John Keegan 361 00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:47,920 Speaker 1: on World War One in Sarajevo, And it's fascinating how 362 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:52,480 Speaker 1: some saw it coming but not really. And there's other 363 00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:56,359 Speaker 1: points in our history, I frankly November of nineteen sixty 364 00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:59,879 Speaker 1: three where you don't see things coming. These exogenous shock 365 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:04,679 Speaker 1: that upset hard power certitude. What are the kind of 366 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:09,920 Speaker 1: exogenous shocks that could get in the way if if 367 00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:13,720 Speaker 1: the driver in in June or nineteen fourteen hadn't gone 368 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 1: taken to the wrong street, maybe there's never been a 369 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 1: First World War. I think, you know, the type of 370 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 1: risk that's there is a hot shot exchange in the 371 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:26,119 Speaker 1: South China Sea, I think is something, uh, you know 372 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:30,160 Speaker 1: a kind of collision of planes over the Baltic There 373 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:32,679 Speaker 1: are these kind of things and then this whole unfolding 374 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:36,439 Speaker 1: cyber saga. So you know, right now it's you know, 375 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:40,480 Speaker 1: so almost divorcing from politics. Things are great, but the 376 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 1: world can change overnight. The world can change overnight, and 377 00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:50,160 Speaker 1: with that is an idea of control. Institutions want control. 378 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:54,280 Speaker 1: In Davo's elite CEO s like control. I mean you 379 00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:57,040 Speaker 1: have to run eye a just market with so many others. 380 00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:01,400 Speaker 1: Does the president have control of the discourse in anyway? 381 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,560 Speaker 1: I think he has uh seized it. He's changed the norms, 382 00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:06,879 Speaker 1: he's changed how you talk to nations and so forth. 383 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 1: But he's not in control of all the events. But 384 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:13,440 Speaker 1: they're talking back euro printing one yen one O eight 385 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:17,320 Speaker 1: ninety six. Someone suggests these are brutal currency moves. Is 386 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 1: the market is one example? Going to talk back to 387 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,000 Speaker 1: Trump's certitude. Well, I think right now, what you have 388 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,280 Speaker 1: is this enthusiasm. If you remember last year here Tom, 389 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:29,800 Speaker 1: the American CEOs were pretty excited because they thought there'd 390 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,880 Speaker 1: be tax reform and no more regulation. The Europeans were 391 00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 1: totally distraught because it was the end of globalization. Now, 392 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 1: from a business point I view, everybody said, this world 393 00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,640 Speaker 1: is kind of cooking. It's doing really well. But the question, now, 394 00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:44,120 Speaker 1: the question you hear is what's what is the unwinding 395 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,080 Speaker 1: gonna come? And in the time that we have left. 396 00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 1: We have to go to the researcher via just market 397 00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 1: the dollar, oil dynamics, Brent seventy point seven nine, that 398 00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:57,800 Speaker 1: European global price seventy one barrel around it up. What 399 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 1: is that linkage in the modern day of weak dollar 400 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,960 Speaker 1: in oil? Sometimes there's not a linkage, but sometimes there's 401 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,120 Speaker 1: a very clear linkage. And I think we can see 402 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:09,200 Speaker 1: that in oil, and we can see another commodity prices, 403 00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:12,639 Speaker 1: weaker dollar, stronger commodity prices. Okay, one more question. I 404 00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:14,399 Speaker 1: know you've got to move on to the top of 405 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 1: the hour here in the Congress uh center. Secretary Tillerson, Uh, 406 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:23,160 Speaker 1: very different Secretary State than the John Carey we saw 407 00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:26,679 Speaker 1: in the hallways here yesterday. What would you like to 408 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:30,160 Speaker 1: see from Secretary Tillerson in this tumult Well, I think 409 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:33,920 Speaker 1: I think, first of all, greater cohesion with the State Department. 410 00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:37,119 Speaker 1: I think would be your reports are the halls are empty, 411 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 1: But the halls are empty obviously. Uh. You know, he's 412 00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:44,760 Speaker 1: a very seasoned guy internationally. But you know, we see 413 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,160 Speaker 1: a lot of jobs are just not filled. The institutions 414 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,800 Speaker 1: aren't working. You said, the book is done, so if 415 00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,719 Speaker 1: you do ten of it on the next airplane flights. 416 00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:56,520 Speaker 1: I've I've given up right an airplane plight. That's when 417 00:24:56,800 --> 00:25:00,639 Speaker 1: first place to right, Daniel, You're going in the annual 418 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:04,320 Speaker 1: visit to Davis Davis. We are honored. He's vice chairman 419 00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 1: h S Market. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. 420 00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or 421 00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:25,760 Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom 422 00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:29,679 Speaker 1: Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 423 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:31,280 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio