WEBVTT - Top Dawgs COLLIDE! 0:00:08.939 --> 0:00:11.259 Everybody long in the Game Debut President of Mercedes Benz 0:00:11.259 --> 0:00:13.499 Patrick Claybun Glad to be back here with Greg Rosenthal 0:00:13.579 --> 0:00:16.379 and Cynthia Freeland, where we had a great week last week. 0:00:16.379 --> 0:00:19.019 We almost would have had the same record, but Greg 0:00:19.139 --> 0:00:22.139 saw a pick that Cynthia and I had him was like, no, no, no, no, no, 0:00:22.499 --> 0:00:24.619 I've got to make a change. So he beat us 0:00:24.659 --> 0:00:25.059 by one. 0:00:25.139 --> 0:00:26.259 I made the right change. 0:00:26.259 --> 0:00:28.939 I took the forty nine ers and if you put 0:00:28.939 --> 0:00:31.059 those standings up, you guys do not want to have 0:00:31.139 --> 0:00:33.499 me three p If I do what has never been 0:00:33.539 --> 0:00:37.139 done before three straight years, like the Chiefs, you will 0:00:37.179 --> 0:00:38.379 never hear the end of it. 0:00:38.419 --> 0:00:39.219 I will never. 0:00:39.019 --> 0:00:41.779 Step on We haven't heard the end of the two feet. 0:00:41.619 --> 0:00:43.259 Yeah, exactly, it'll be even worse. 0:00:44.579 --> 0:00:46.139 I don't have anything to say. I just need to 0:00:46.139 --> 0:00:47.539 get back to picking better games. 0:00:47.859 --> 0:00:48.179 Really. 0:00:48.259 --> 0:00:52.499 Yeah, We've got an opportunity because there are some differences 0:00:52.579 --> 0:00:55.099 are here in ours today, which we will reveal to 0:00:55.139 --> 0:00:57.539 you as we continue this edition of Game Debuts. We 0:00:57.579 --> 0:01:00.779 get to Josh Allen coming off across the street game 0:01:00.819 --> 0:01:03.299 for the Ages last week in Los Angeles, six total 0:01:03.339 --> 0:01:06.939 touchdowns and three rushing first player in NFL history to 0:01:06.979 --> 0:01:09.259 do that in a regular season game. I'm sure Josh 0:01:09.299 --> 0:01:13.539 would have preferred to get a W. But pretty incredible stuff. 0:01:14.659 --> 0:01:16.899 So things don't get any easier for Josh and the 0:01:16.899 --> 0:01:19.779 Bills this week. They've got Cynthia's red hot Lions and 0:01:19.819 --> 0:01:22.179 a potential Super Bowl preview that we. 0:01:22.139 --> 0:01:24.259 All need to know who wins the football game. 0:01:24.379 --> 0:01:25.499 And Detroit Lions. 0:01:25.539 --> 0:01:28.099 Do I feel like a jerk after that opening Segmently, 0:01:28.539 --> 0:01:31.019 my wife's gonna be like, you just come off so unlikable. 0:01:31.019 --> 0:01:33.779 But what if you pick the Lions the most likable 0:01:33.859 --> 0:01:36.459 team in the league because of their running game. Their 0:01:36.579 --> 0:01:40.659 explosive run rate since about Week six is right there 0:01:40.779 --> 0:01:42.939 near the top of the league. It's not because of 0:01:43.019 --> 0:01:45.739 David Montgomery for the most part, it's because of Jamiir Gibbs. 0:01:45.739 --> 0:01:48.979 And when I look at the Bills defense, their biggest 0:01:49.019 --> 0:01:52.419 problem is giving up explosive runs. They're actually bottom five 0:01:52.579 --> 0:01:54.739 in the league in terms of their explosive run rate. 0:01:54.779 --> 0:01:57.499 They're pretty good overall, but they've tended to give up 0:01:57.539 --> 0:01:58.619 a lot of long runs. 0:01:58.659 --> 0:02:01.219 It's a lightweight group. You saw last. 0:02:01.019 --> 0:02:03.499 Week the Rams leaned on them a little bit in 0:02:03.539 --> 0:02:05.379 the running game, and so to me, that's where the 0:02:05.379 --> 0:02:08.739 biggest advantage comes is Detroit on the ground. Even if 0:02:08.779 --> 0:02:11.979 they're not getting consistent five six yards, I think Gibbs 0:02:12.299 --> 0:02:15.899 maybe Montgomery gets a forty fifty yarder. And I actually 0:02:15.899 --> 0:02:18.859 not only have the Lions winning, I have the Lions covering. 0:02:18.939 --> 0:02:20.459 So hopefully you like me better. 0:02:20.539 --> 0:02:23.139 Yeah, well, try to get back on Cynthia's good grace. 0:02:23.219 --> 0:02:24.819 I don't have as much as a comeback as Greg 0:02:24.859 --> 0:02:27.379 does because he did come off as unlike them. 0:02:27.419 --> 0:02:29.979 I'm just we love Greg Rosenthal. 0:02:30.059 --> 0:02:32.899 I also have a Detroit Lions win three points for 0:02:32.979 --> 0:02:37.059 me where it's twenty nine to twenty six, and we 0:02:37.099 --> 0:02:38.779 all love the idea of a potential score fest. 0:02:38.819 --> 0:02:41.779 But it's actually the reason picking the Lions is their. 0:02:41.659 --> 0:02:44.899 Defense, because if you zoom into a specific spot on 0:02:44.979 --> 0:02:49.019 the field, we discuss all the guys that they are missing. 0:02:49.019 --> 0:02:52.139 But Brian Branch and Karby Joseph have played every game 0:02:52.179 --> 0:02:55.219 this season and around nine yards away from the line 0:02:55.259 --> 0:02:57.419 of scrimmage all the way back to the end zone. 0:02:57.459 --> 0:03:00.339 They are top three in terms of completion percentage allowed. 0:03:00.699 --> 0:03:03.019 And the reason for that is Brian Branch and Kirby 0:03:03.099 --> 0:03:05.939 Joseph are typically he lined up around nine yards awayt 0:03:05.939 --> 0:03:06.739 of Malanda Scrimmage. 0:03:06.739 --> 0:03:09.219 They're just so good. Throw Carlton Davis in the mix. 0:03:09.419 --> 0:03:11.939 These guys make plays and all they need to do 0:03:12.379 --> 0:03:14.339 is just make a couple to get a Lions win. 0:03:14.419 --> 0:03:17.539 Here, Cynthia, I love you guys. I appreciate you guys. 0:03:17.579 --> 0:03:21.379 Du I hope you're both right. And my model, the 0:03:21.499 --> 0:03:25.299 model picks the Bills. It's a prime number twenty eight 0:03:25.339 --> 0:03:26.059 to twenty seven. 0:03:26.259 --> 0:03:27.779 So I guess we all agree high scoring. 0:03:28.139 --> 0:03:30.419 But when I'm looking at this game, let's make a 0:03:30.499 --> 0:03:32.779 list of the players that are not going to be 0:03:32.819 --> 0:03:36.179 playing for the Lions. It is very long, so you're 0:03:36.179 --> 0:03:38.419 gonna be seeing some mixtape that includes a lot of 0:03:38.419 --> 0:03:44.339 people like Malcolm Rodriguez, Aiden Hutchinson, Alexanzeloni, Derek Barnes. You know, 0:03:44.379 --> 0:03:46.859 there's other people who may or may not be coming back. 0:03:47.019 --> 0:03:50.899 Maybe only McNeil plays. Maybe we get Zach Pascalbek, maybe not. 0:03:51.299 --> 0:03:52.339 You never know. 0:03:52.619 --> 0:03:55.699 The problem is, and when you have that level of 0:03:55.739 --> 0:03:59.419 the defense not really playing. And Josh Allen it's not 0:03:59.459 --> 0:04:01.939 like he's making these deep passes and deep touchdown passes 0:04:01.939 --> 0:04:03.739 this season. That's the area of the field that he 0:04:03.779 --> 0:04:06.539 likes to talk target. So your big hole is right 0:04:06.539 --> 0:04:09.659 where the Josh Allen sized plug is. It's going to 0:04:09.699 --> 0:04:12.739 be problematic, but I fully I admit Number one, I 0:04:12.819 --> 0:04:14.419 now wear boots when it's fifty degrees. 0:04:14.619 --> 0:04:17.059 This is terrible, and I'm picking the Bills. I'm going 0:04:17.099 --> 0:04:17.419 to have. 0:04:17.419 --> 0:04:19.299 To revoke my Michigan card at some point here. 0:04:19.299 --> 0:04:20.419 Hopefully I can earn it back. 0:04:20.579 --> 0:04:24.099 The computer model has taken over. It's become Stynthian and 0:04:24.339 --> 0:04:26.059 is overpowered in your heart. 0:04:26.339 --> 0:04:28.859 Says no, my heart is with my heart. I love 0:04:28.899 --> 0:04:31.339 both teams, in fact, but my heart is with the Lions. 0:04:32.059 --> 0:04:33.579 It's just the model is with the Bills. 0:04:33.819 --> 0:04:35.299 And I think most people know that you want the 0:04:35.339 --> 0:04:37.459 Lions to win. There's certainly a team that's hot on 0:04:37.539 --> 0:04:39.819 their trail in the NFC, the Eagles, that does not 0:04:39.979 --> 0:04:40.419 want them to. 0:04:41.179 --> 0:04:42.859 Philly has won nine straits. 0:04:42.899 --> 0:04:44.699 It's coming off of their bi although you probably wouldn't 0:04:44.699 --> 0:04:46.459 know if you listen to Philly sports talk radio. They're 0:04:46.459 --> 0:04:49.419 playing hosts to Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh Steelers. George 0:04:49.459 --> 0:04:52.699 Pickens is doubtful who wins the Battle of Pennsylvania. 0:04:52.979 --> 0:04:55.619 The Eagles do, and I actually think they get over 0:04:55.659 --> 0:04:56.139 that number. 0:04:56.179 --> 0:04:58.179 I saw it at first. It's five and a half. Wow, 0:04:58.219 --> 0:05:00.779 that's big. That's disrespectful to the Steelers. They're trying to 0:05:00.819 --> 0:05:03.899 trick us. I think the Eagles defense comes out, plays well, 0:05:04.219 --> 0:05:07.139 and the squeaky wheel gets the grease on offense. That's 0:05:07.259 --> 0:05:10.659 Aj Brown. He said the passing game wasn't working. He 0:05:10.899 --> 0:05:14.459 was absolutely right. Their passing game has been in a 0:05:14.499 --> 0:05:17.779 steep decline over the last month of the season. I 0:05:17.819 --> 0:05:20.859 have them winning twenty four to seventeen. We're seeing some 0:05:20.979 --> 0:05:23.539 better days out of AJ Brown. I believe him and 0:05:23.659 --> 0:05:26.499 Jalen Hurts still can get it going down the field. 0:05:26.579 --> 0:05:29.139 Jalen Hurts said the deep ball will never not be 0:05:29.219 --> 0:05:31.019 a part of this offense. Well, it hasn't been for 0:05:31.059 --> 0:05:32.619 the last month. He hasn't been a man of his 0:05:32.659 --> 0:05:34.659 word there. So I think they're going to really stress 0:05:34.859 --> 0:05:36.939 getting the ball to Brown this week. But the reason 0:05:37.219 --> 0:05:38.539 really that I think they're going to win is this 0:05:38.579 --> 0:05:40.659 Eagles defense is so good. They're going to keep the 0:05:40.659 --> 0:05:41.819 Steelers in the teams. 0:05:42.259 --> 0:05:44.059 I think Greg though the deep ball is still a 0:05:44.099 --> 0:05:45.899 part of their offense. Jalen Hurts can still throw it. 0:05:45.939 --> 0:05:48.579 They just haven't necessarily been doing it. But they still 0:05:48.579 --> 0:05:50.939 make explosive plays because one of the easiest things in 0:05:50.979 --> 0:05:53.259 the NFL to do to get an explosive play is 0:05:53.259 --> 0:05:55.579 to give the ball to the potential I would say 0:05:55.619 --> 0:05:59.499 front runner at least if I'm voting, Saguon Barkley is 0:05:59.499 --> 0:06:02.699 the MVP because he makes explosive plays happen. And then 0:06:02.739 --> 0:06:06.659 over on the other side, George Pickens is responsible for 0:06:06.739 --> 0:06:09.499 sixty percent of the Steelers plays that are thirty six 0:06:09.659 --> 0:06:12.299 yards or longer. If he's not playing, it just becomes 0:06:12.339 --> 0:06:15.099 so much difficult to drive the ball down the field 0:06:15.099 --> 0:06:18.899 against seventeen times Super Bowl. A part of winning defensive 0:06:18.899 --> 0:06:22.619 coordinator Vic Fangio, who's just like the butterfly effect of 0:06:22.659 --> 0:06:23.499 defensive coordinator. 0:06:23.619 --> 0:06:25.499 Right, he won seventeen Super Bowl. 0:06:25.419 --> 0:06:26.619 He's played a hand in them. 0:06:26.779 --> 0:06:28.739 Trust me, He's just gonna have to follow the show 0:06:28.779 --> 0:06:31.739 long term and we'll go through all of them. But Cynthia, 0:06:31.899 --> 0:06:33.499 I've got the Eagles in this one. I'm just messing 0:06:33.499 --> 0:06:35.619 around with Vic fan Joe. But the Eagles defense is playing. 0:06:35.619 --> 0:06:37.499 All of Eagles defense is playing well. 0:06:37.539 --> 0:06:40.459 And that's actually my point and what drives my win 0:06:40.539 --> 0:06:42.739 in this one. I have the Eagles maybe bigger than 0:06:42.779 --> 0:06:44.659 you guys know, not as big as Greg six points 0:06:44.779 --> 0:06:48.059 twenty six to twenty meme alert away when I'm looking 0:06:48.139 --> 0:06:50.779 at the opportunity in this one, it is stopping the 0:06:50.819 --> 0:06:53.899 deep pass. And that's where the Eagles have been very good. 0:06:53.939 --> 0:06:56.339 We know that Russell Wilson, we saw that crazy old 0:06:56.379 --> 0:06:58.139 video a couple weeks ago with the moonball. 0:06:58.299 --> 0:06:58.979 Remember that one. 0:06:59.059 --> 0:07:01.419 Oh yeah, an astronaut like, there's all this as it 0:07:01.459 --> 0:07:03.899 was on the head how space, That's not how footballs 0:07:03.899 --> 0:07:07.139 would in space. Doesn't matter because in this one, Cooper 0:07:07.179 --> 0:07:08.619 de Jean's got something to say about that. 0:07:08.739 --> 0:07:11.419 Quinjon Mitchell he does too. If you are a coder, 0:07:11.499 --> 0:07:13.539 you sing songs when you code. Cooper to Gen. 0:07:13.659 --> 0:07:16.379 Cooper to Gen, he is kind of mean every time. 0:07:16.539 --> 0:07:18.899 That's what I hear in my ear every time I 0:07:18.979 --> 0:07:19.859 code for this defense. 0:07:19.899 --> 0:07:22.499 But they are great at defending the deep pass. 0:07:22.259 --> 0:07:26.059 And especially with George Pickens being banged up, this decreases 0:07:26.099 --> 0:07:28.179 the thing that is a huge wind. And by the way, 0:07:28.499 --> 0:07:30.779 in modern football, do you know that the only team 0:07:30.819 --> 0:07:33.259 the Steelers haven't won against on the road. 0:07:33.099 --> 0:07:36.139 Is the Eagles. Keystone State belongs to the Eagles. 0:07:36.219 --> 0:07:38.539 Well, a fun fact they're and something for Eagles fans 0:07:38.539 --> 0:07:41.659 to celebrate if they can't celebrate all of these wins. 0:07:41.659 --> 0:07:44.139 The Eagles currently sitting in first place in the NFC East. 0:07:44.299 --> 0:07:46.339 Now let's go less to where we found another bird 0:07:46.379 --> 0:07:50.779 sitting atop their division. Holy catf there's still a top 0:07:50.819 --> 0:07:53.419 ten call for me. The NFC West leading the Seahawks 0:07:53.499 --> 0:07:55.979 have one four straight. They're playing host of the Packers 0:07:55.979 --> 0:07:59.259 on Sunday night. How does this incredible matchup look to you, Cynthia? 0:07:59.899 --> 0:08:02.059 Why can somebody explain to me how the Packers are 0:08:02.059 --> 0:08:02.699 favored by two and. 0:08:02.659 --> 0:08:04.779 A half points in a row. This is an using one. 0:08:05.139 --> 0:08:07.339 Maybe I'm taking the cheese in the wrong way, as in, 0:08:07.459 --> 0:08:10.139 I'm throwing the cheese out because I'm picking the Seahawks 0:08:10.139 --> 0:08:12.059 in this one twenty four to twenty two. 0:08:12.139 --> 0:08:13.139 I have the home team winning. 0:08:13.379 --> 0:08:16.099 Why because we saw something from Zach Charboney that we 0:08:16.139 --> 0:08:19.579 haven't really been seeing. Kenneth Walker is a great running back. 0:08:19.659 --> 0:08:22.779 He's actually very good at nice elusive runs. But Sharboney 0:08:23.019 --> 0:08:25.979 is great at breaking tackles. The yak has been wonderful 0:08:26.019 --> 0:08:27.899 from him. And yes we know that the Packers they 0:08:27.899 --> 0:08:31.059 can get into their opponent's backfield, doesn't matter as much 0:08:31.059 --> 0:08:33.459 when you have the explosive power of Charbonay. 0:08:33.619 --> 0:08:36.059 So those wrinkles and folds were really helped. What are 0:08:36.099 --> 0:08:37.179 you laughing at the. 0:08:37.139 --> 0:08:40.139 Explosive power of charboney because it's like it's pressurized and 0:08:40.219 --> 0:08:40.979 you could pop. 0:08:40.779 --> 0:08:41.379 The cork. 0:08:43.059 --> 0:08:46.499 Exactly that sharbon A cork is coming for you, Green Bay. 0:08:47.699 --> 0:08:50.259 I love this pick. I love when the model gets 0:08:50.259 --> 0:08:50.899 a little spicy. 0:08:51.099 --> 0:08:52.459 The model's angry this week. 0:08:52.579 --> 0:08:55.459 I mean it's got two upsets in the first three picks, 0:08:55.499 --> 0:08:56.819 and I love being on the same side of the 0:08:56.859 --> 0:08:59.339 model in this one. When it's got my Seahawks winning, 0:08:59.379 --> 0:09:01.739 I have him in the upset as well. It's in 0:09:01.819 --> 0:09:04.779 part because they're so diverse on often. Yes, you can 0:09:04.779 --> 0:09:06.499 throw it to DK down the field, but you have 0:09:06.659 --> 0:09:10.579 Jackson Smith and Jigba over the middle, who is probably 0:09:10.699 --> 0:09:13.859 as important as DK metcalf is in this offense. Right now, 0:09:14.019 --> 0:09:16.779 when Gino Smith needs a play on third down, he 0:09:16.859 --> 0:09:19.579 looks to JSN. It's a reminder with all the rookie 0:09:19.619 --> 0:09:23.099 wide receivers like Roma Dunesa, you're Marvin Harrison, that people 0:09:23.139 --> 0:09:23.859 maybe aren't. 0:09:23.659 --> 0:09:24.259 That thrilled with. 0:09:24.499 --> 0:09:26.979 Think about what people were saying about Jasn at this 0:09:27.059 --> 0:09:29.339 time of year ago, he was struggling. Oh what's happening? 0:09:29.339 --> 0:09:31.259 I thought this guy was gonna be safe. He has 0:09:31.299 --> 0:09:34.059 turned into a dynamic playmaker. They move him all over 0:09:34.099 --> 0:09:36.779 the field. He really sets up what their passing game does. 0:09:36.899 --> 0:09:39.219 Their offensive line has been playing better. You saw that 0:09:39.299 --> 0:09:41.299 with some of those Charbonnay runs. But they've also been 0:09:41.379 --> 0:09:44.699 protecting Gino Smith better and Green Bay does not get 0:09:44.739 --> 0:09:46.539 a lot of pressure on the passer. So I think 0:09:46.579 --> 0:09:49.299 there's going to be time to find jsn As the 0:09:49.339 --> 0:09:52.019 season has gone along, he's gotten more important Seahawks get 0:09:52.019 --> 0:09:52.299 to win. 0:09:52.619 --> 0:09:55.219 I am going to go opposite of you guys in 0:09:55.339 --> 0:09:57.859 take the Green Bay Packers in this one. 0:09:57.939 --> 0:09:58.619 Yes, it's a. 0:09:58.579 --> 0:10:00.779 Stray bond, and a lot of it has to do 0:10:01.219 --> 0:10:03.579 with looking at the way that the Seahawks were able 0:10:03.619 --> 0:10:05.579 to run the ball zach Scharbonney going up against a 0:10:05.619 --> 0:10:08.819 defense I affectionately called the search bar in Arizona where 0:10:08.819 --> 0:10:10.539 they have to scheme up exotic pressures. 0:10:10.539 --> 0:10:12.259 They use those to get to Gino Smith. 0:10:12.379 --> 0:10:14.699 But they just caught them in some bad spots last 0:10:14.699 --> 0:10:17.179 week where the Packers rushed defense a little bit better 0:10:17.219 --> 0:10:20.379 top seven in terms of yards per carry defense since 0:10:20.419 --> 0:10:23.299 Week seven, and then on offense, it's Josh Jacobs being 0:10:23.379 --> 0:10:26.859 very consistent and not in like a predictable fashion. He's 0:10:26.939 --> 0:10:30.059 just had seven touchdowns over the past three games, which 0:10:30.099 --> 0:10:32.499 is the most in a three game stretch since Jonathan 0:10:32.499 --> 0:10:35.739 Taylor back in twenty twenty one. So it's the consistency 0:10:35.779 --> 0:10:40.539 and not the high, low variants running attack of the 0:10:40.619 --> 0:10:41.419 Seattle Seahawks. 0:10:41.459 --> 0:10:43.379 I think the Lions won that game. Whetherwise, I'd hate 0:10:43.379 --> 0:10:43.819 that footage. 0:10:44.179 --> 0:10:48.099 Cynthia's wiping away the footage, like, get Josh Jacobs going 0:10:48.099 --> 0:10:51.939 in that was in a win. Slowly becoming like a 0:10:52.019 --> 0:10:53.619 Eagles Lions fan. 0:10:54.579 --> 0:10:56.339 Not an Eagles fan. I'm a Lions fan. 0:10:56.579 --> 0:10:59.859 The Dolphins and Texans in h Down, both teams fighting 0:10:59.859 --> 0:11:01.419 to make the playoffs. He saw the Texans on that 0:11:01.459 --> 0:11:03.979 graphic there. What do you see taking place, Cynthia. 0:11:03.539 --> 0:11:04.659 Well, see CJ. 0:11:04.739 --> 0:11:06.899 Stroud looking really good in this one and winning the 0:11:06.939 --> 0:11:09.059 game twenty six to twenty two. I know that the 0:11:09.099 --> 0:11:12.299 Dolphins need it, but I'm looking at the opportunity here 0:11:12.619 --> 0:11:16.059 to watch CJ. Stroud not be under as much pressure. 0:11:16.219 --> 0:11:18.659 The Dolphins are not bringing the heat, and what we've 0:11:18.659 --> 0:11:21.139 seen from CJ. Stroud in this offensive line is a 0:11:21.179 --> 0:11:23.979 bunch of jumping off sides not great, a bunch of 0:11:24.699 --> 0:11:28.139 issues in terms of keeping him protected not great. And 0:11:28.179 --> 0:11:31.099 then people are like, is CJ. Stroud broken? My answer 0:11:31.219 --> 0:11:33.139 is no. I think this will be the game where 0:11:33.139 --> 0:11:34.499 we see the strategy come together. 0:11:34.539 --> 0:11:35.419 They've had a week off. 0:11:35.459 --> 0:11:37.539 Now, they can watch even more of the film than 0:11:37.539 --> 0:11:38.859 they would in just a regular week. 0:11:39.059 --> 0:11:39.939 They can regroup. 0:11:40.019 --> 0:11:43.979 Nico Collins's back, let's Namas stay here and get a 0:11:44.099 --> 0:11:45.299 nice win at home. 0:11:45.579 --> 0:11:48.019 Yeah, they're coming off the buy and it's like a 0:11:48.059 --> 0:11:49.619 Laramie Tunsel revenge game. 0:11:49.699 --> 0:11:51.299 Remember that trade from Miami. 0:11:51.699 --> 0:11:53.179 But is he mad about that? 0:11:53.379 --> 0:11:55.339 No, he's happy he got to move to Houston. He 0:11:55.779 --> 0:11:56.699 got paid very well. 0:11:57.379 --> 0:11:59.019 But I think it's a couple other guys who are 0:11:59.019 --> 0:12:01.619 getting paid well. Will Anderson because he's a top draftick 0:12:01.699 --> 0:12:05.099 and Danil Hunter on the edge getting after to a 0:12:05.139 --> 0:12:07.459 tongue of I looa. He might not have his left 0:12:07.459 --> 0:12:10.979 tackle Toron Armstead for this game, and that's such a 0:12:11.339 --> 0:12:15.139 massive factor when Armstead has not been on the field. 0:12:15.179 --> 0:12:18.499 The on off splits are alarming for this Dolphins offense 0:12:18.579 --> 0:12:20.979 over the last couple of years, and this is the 0:12:20.979 --> 0:12:24.419 worst week for it. Anderson had an injury, He's gotten 0:12:24.459 --> 0:12:28.419 to get healthier, he's practicing fully. Hunter's been as consistent 0:12:28.459 --> 0:12:30.979 as any team in the league. So Cynthia mentioned the 0:12:31.019 --> 0:12:33.939 pass protection that CJ. Straud could get on the other side, 0:12:33.979 --> 0:12:36.099 I don't think Tua is gonna get it. I think 0:12:36.139 --> 0:12:38.939 this game is won in the trenches by the Texans. 0:12:38.979 --> 0:12:41.459 They get a win and maybe kind of win the 0:12:41.499 --> 0:12:42.299 division this week. 0:12:42.499 --> 0:12:44.459 Like Anderson's fingers no no no no. 0:12:44.299 --> 0:12:46.339 No no no no no, rest in peace, the kim 0:12:46.339 --> 0:12:48.499 Bi m tumble, the fingerwag, standing, and a lot for 0:12:48.779 --> 0:12:51.059 a long time. As we look over this, I see 0:12:51.099 --> 0:12:55.379 it's a close game. But I also have used texansam 0:12:55.379 --> 0:12:58.819 winning because, as Greg mentioned the pass rush from Hunter 0:12:58.899 --> 0:13:00.939 as well as Will Anderson, you want the run game 0:13:01.059 --> 0:13:02.459 to kind of help end that capacity. 0:13:02.819 --> 0:13:04.179 Thirty nine and forty four yards. 0:13:04.699 --> 0:13:06.699 That's the total run total of the last couple of 0:13:06.739 --> 0:13:10.979 weeks for the Miami Dolphins. Meanwhile, Joe Mixon has seven 0:13:11.059 --> 0:13:13.539 games with one hundred yards of a touchdown this season. 0:13:13.739 --> 0:13:15.859 I think it would like sleep on the fact that 0:13:15.939 --> 0:13:18.459 this is one of the best free agent acquisitions. Yeah, 0:13:18.499 --> 0:13:21.379 Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley have been incredible. But Joe 0:13:21.459 --> 0:13:23.939 Mixon has also been very good for the Houston Texans. 0:13:23.979 --> 0:13:26.499 He's only played in ten games, seven of them have 0:13:26.579 --> 0:13:29.179 been one hundred yards with the touchdowns. We all agree 0:13:29.499 --> 0:13:32.939 the Houston Texans maybe knocking the Miami Dolphins off of 0:13:32.979 --> 0:13:37.539 the AFC playoff picture a late push from Tua that's 0:13:37.579 --> 0:13:40.259 not gonna work out. So no surprise that Tua and CJ. 0:13:40.339 --> 0:13:43.019 Stroud have their teams at least in playoff runs. What 0:13:43.139 --> 0:13:46.099 is surprise though, by Bo Nicks and how he and 0:13:46.139 --> 0:13:49.939 the Denver Broncos have been playing the eight and five 0:13:49.979 --> 0:13:51.979 Broncos and the thing of the wild card race. They're 0:13:51.979 --> 0:13:53.899 playing host to the Colts, who are also in the 0:13:53.939 --> 0:13:56.539 wild card hunt. I think Denver is going to scratch 0:13:56.539 --> 0:13:59.339 out a twenty four to twenty three win here, scratching 0:13:59.379 --> 0:14:01.419 out that that one point there, just out of respect 0:14:01.779 --> 0:14:03.699 to what Anthony Richardson and the Colts have been able 0:14:03.739 --> 0:14:06.299 to do late this season. But it's the defense that's 0:14:06.339 --> 0:14:09.459 the issue for me here, where Gus Bradley's defense plays 0:14:09.459 --> 0:14:11.539 the most zone in the entire league. It's been that 0:14:11.619 --> 0:14:14.179 way for a few years now. I foolishly picked the 0:14:14.259 --> 0:14:16.419 Jets a few weeks ago because I believe that there 0:14:16.499 --> 0:14:18.939 was going to be a tendency switch and Gus Bradley 0:14:18.939 --> 0:14:20.139 and cover are going to play more man. 0:14:20.219 --> 0:14:24.259 It did not happen, and bo Knicks is a top five. 0:14:24.139 --> 0:14:27.339 Quarterback in the NFL in terms of completion percentage against 0:14:27.419 --> 0:14:28.739 zone since Week seven. 0:14:28.939 --> 0:14:30.419 We know the Colts are going to be in there. 0:14:30.459 --> 0:14:32.179 They're going to play the zone, and he's. 0:14:32.019 --> 0:14:33.819 Gonna have an opportunity to get the ball to Courtland 0:14:33.859 --> 0:14:35.659 Sutton as well as the Fan Valley and all of 0:14:35.739 --> 0:14:36.899 these Broncos receivers. 0:14:36.939 --> 0:14:37.899 I have a Broncos win. 0:14:38.099 --> 0:14:40.939 Yeah, looking at the score, it's very similar to you. 0:14:41.019 --> 0:14:43.819 I have the Colts covering, but the Broncos winning in 0:14:43.859 --> 0:14:45.779 this game because I think they win the battle of 0:14:45.819 --> 0:14:47.699 the line of scrimmage again. This time it's on the 0:14:47.699 --> 0:14:51.739 defensive side, getting after Anthony Richardson. It's been a consistent 0:14:51.779 --> 0:14:55.179 pass rush. They've gotten better with their four man pass 0:14:55.259 --> 0:14:57.539 rush as the course of the season has gone on. 0:14:57.659 --> 0:15:02.379 Nick Benito getting some heat on the opposing quarterbacks and 0:15:02.939 --> 0:15:06.019 Anthony Richardson's pass detection has been okay this year. But 0:15:06.139 --> 0:15:08.419 I think the Broncos have a better offensive line. The 0:15:08.459 --> 0:15:11.499 Colts put a lot of investment into their pass rush. 0:15:11.499 --> 0:15:14.019 But I think the Broncos have a better defensive line. 0:15:14.059 --> 0:15:16.859 So with a great coach like Sean Payton, he's putting 0:15:16.899 --> 0:15:18.419 money into that offensive line. 0:15:18.419 --> 0:15:20.059 The defensive line is getting after it. 0:15:20.499 --> 0:15:22.739 I think it's enough to get the win and basically 0:15:22.819 --> 0:15:25.259 punch their ticket to the playoffs. If these results are 0:15:25.539 --> 0:15:29.059 right in terms of what we're picking, it's Broncos, it's Texans, 0:15:29.059 --> 0:15:30.779 and this thing's over with three weeks to go. 0:15:30.979 --> 0:15:31.179 Yeah. 0:15:31.299 --> 0:15:33.379 No, I think that that is what happens, and I 0:15:33.379 --> 0:15:35.219 have a much more convincing win than you guys. I 0:15:35.259 --> 0:15:38.099 have twenty four to eighteen in favor of the Broncos. 0:15:38.499 --> 0:15:40.699 I didn't realize we would all be picking the Broncos. 0:15:40.779 --> 0:15:42.259 So I actually do want to point out and give 0:15:42.259 --> 0:15:44.779 a little love to Riley Moss who's had a great season, 0:15:44.819 --> 0:15:48.059 but his injury scares me for their long term viability 0:15:48.099 --> 0:15:50.059 in this game. I don't think it's going to be 0:15:50.139 --> 0:15:52.499 as much of a factor. Obviously, the secondary will be 0:15:52.579 --> 0:15:55.019 bigger in games where there's more of a threat of 0:15:55.059 --> 0:15:56.539 too many different pass catchers. 0:15:56.579 --> 0:15:59.019 Anthony Richardson, that's not quite the threat there, and you 0:15:59.099 --> 0:16:00.099 just throw the deep ball up. 0:16:00.099 --> 0:16:02.699 But there's a little bit more volatility on his side. 0:16:02.779 --> 0:16:05.779 But Moss is an a really good example of how 0:16:05.819 --> 0:16:07.899 this team has grown since last year. And they're really 0:16:07.979 --> 0:16:12.699 navigating the Russell Wilson money situation well with their rookies contributing. 0:16:12.859 --> 0:16:15.499 They're making the playoffs kind of way before anyone thought 0:16:15.499 --> 0:16:17.859 they would. And this is a thing where now they 0:16:17.899 --> 0:16:19.539 paid their left tackle, so they're not going to have 0:16:19.579 --> 0:16:21.739 to take a tackle in the draft. They're giving themselves 0:16:21.819 --> 0:16:23.579 a lot of different options. So this is good for 0:16:23.699 --> 0:16:25.219 this year and it's good for going forward. 0:16:25.259 --> 0:16:27.499 I remember an analyst by the name of Cynthia Freeland 0:16:27.499 --> 0:16:29.979 before the season who said over on the five and 0:16:29.979 --> 0:16:32.499 a half win total for the Broncos was the pick 0:16:32.539 --> 0:16:32.939 of the year. 0:16:32.979 --> 0:16:35.459 And you hit that. You know, before December, you. 0:16:35.459 --> 0:16:38.539 Got another division championship for the Kansas City Chiefs. They've 0:16:38.579 --> 0:16:41.459 got the Browns in Cleveland. Should they be an upsidal lerger. 0:16:41.259 --> 0:16:43.939 They should be every week because every week comes down 0:16:43.979 --> 0:16:45.659 to the last second. But they're gonna win again. It's 0:16:45.659 --> 0:16:48.459 twenty four to nineteen and they actually cover the number 0:16:48.539 --> 0:16:52.179