WEBVTT - Is China's BYD the Un-Tesla?

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<v Speaker 1>its entirety tomorrow. It includes two cover stories this week,

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<v Speaker 1>a domestic cover story and an international cover story, which

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<v Speaker 1>talks about maybe the UN Tesla. It's a car company

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<v Speaker 1>that's trying to take on Tesla. It's called b y D,

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<v Speaker 1>and the question is is China's b y D the

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<v Speaker 1>UN Tesla. Jim Ellis is Assistant Managing editor of Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week. He's with us right now in the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Interactive Broke Studio. Jim, how do how do when you

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<v Speaker 1>think about a story like this, how does it come together?

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<v Speaker 1>And we should note that UM it's available in the

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<v Speaker 1>upcoming issue of Bloomberg Business Week Matters. I mean this

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<v Speaker 1>came together because there was a lot of interest in UM.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, there's obviously a lot of interest in e

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<v Speaker 1>v S, a lot of interest in in Tesla and UM.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, most people sort of think that the way

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<v Speaker 1>Tesla has sort of developed itself is the is the

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<v Speaker 1>model for UM, you know, auto companies of the future,

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<v Speaker 1>and by D sort of stands in as an example

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<v Speaker 1>of it doesn't have to be that way. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>b b D is not just a startup, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>a very successful company. It's the largest EV maker in China.

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<v Speaker 1>It's also the third most valuable by market cap auto

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<v Speaker 1>company in the world, after Tesla and Toyota. But a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of people here probably don't know it much other

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<v Speaker 1>than that it's a big investment by who else, Warren Buffett,

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<v Speaker 1>who bought into this company back in the you know,

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<v Speaker 1>early two thousands and put in with two million dollars.

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<v Speaker 1>It's now a stake worth eight billion dollars and um,

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<v Speaker 1>this is a company very that believes in vertical integration.

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<v Speaker 1>They've come in and they've said, you know, everybody's talking

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<v Speaker 1>about chips shortages, and everybody's talking about battery deals. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>they make their own batteries. They're now the third largest

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<v Speaker 1>maker of EV batteries in the world. They also make

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<v Speaker 1>their own chips. They use them in their cars. They

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<v Speaker 1>are probably going to be a battery supplier to Tesla.

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<v Speaker 1>They're already a battery supplier to Toyota. I mean, this

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<v Speaker 1>is a true, you know, vision of we should make this.

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<v Speaker 1>They also, um, you know now have invested in lithium, minds,

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<v Speaker 1>all the things you need for batteries. They are just

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<v Speaker 1>very different. The other thing that's really different is that

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<v Speaker 1>they are making cars for the sort of middle class

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<v Speaker 1>person and that's that's a big market. But it's a

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<v Speaker 1>very different approach. With the Tesla tests that came in

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<v Speaker 1>and Tesla said they were doing Model three at what

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<v Speaker 1>thirty k, right, and the average price for that it's

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<v Speaker 1>now about forty six. So what would it be y

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<v Speaker 1>D set you back? Right now? You can get one

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<v Speaker 1>and you can't get one in the you can't get

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<v Speaker 1>one in the US but it would probably be about

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<v Speaker 1>a third less than comparable Tesla in China where they

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<v Speaker 1>sell hit to hit UM. You know, it goes to

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<v Speaker 1>the Their Auto three UM is about half the price

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<v Speaker 1>of the Tesla model. Why which would be comparable? It

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<v Speaker 1>should be sort of e V or it's um UM.

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<v Speaker 1>You know. It's a different marketplace though, because when you're

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<v Speaker 1>saying I'm going to make cars for Middle I don't

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<v Speaker 1>wanna call it Middle America. It's Middle China, Middle uh Asia. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>You're not going to be able to charge as much,

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<v Speaker 1>but you're also not going to be able to have

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<v Speaker 1>the same sort of level of profitability. And right now,

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<v Speaker 1>about two percent of every you know of revenues goes

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<v Speaker 1>to profit at b y D, about ten percent of

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<v Speaker 1>profit goes to UM. You know a revenue goes to

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<v Speaker 1>profit at Tesla. Is this a company I think about

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<v Speaker 1>you know President g and he talked about, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>wanting to get into higher tech or you know, high

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<v Speaker 1>tech markets UM and sell to the world and not

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<v Speaker 1>be the manufacturer of the world. And I do wonder

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<v Speaker 1>is this ultimately will will be able to get these

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<v Speaker 1>cars in the United States? And and I do think

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<v Speaker 1>about what that means for some of the competition and specifically, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean that that is the goal there. I mean

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<v Speaker 1>one of the big things about the ideas it's been

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<v Speaker 1>expanding global. It means in Australia now they're they've got

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<v Speaker 1>deals now for Germany. UM, I mean they view themselves

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<v Speaker 1>as a global company. They just got then they're going

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<v Speaker 1>to use this period now when everybody wants to have

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<v Speaker 1>evs but everybody doesn't have the capacity to produce enough evs.

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<v Speaker 1>They're using that as an opportunity to sort of build

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<v Speaker 1>into the market also. Um, they have UM, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>they're they're doing something that China wants to do, which

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<v Speaker 1>is to become more of a producer, global producer of

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<v Speaker 1>autos and um. Just this morning, UM, the Chinese Premier

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<v Speaker 1>Leko King went to be at b y d s

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<v Speaker 1>headquarters and to say, you guys, hey at a boy

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<v Speaker 1>you know, get out there and you know, sort of

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<v Speaker 1>do this for us for the future. I mean, they

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<v Speaker 1>view that as one of the big potential consumer products

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<v Speaker 1>of the future and China must have a much bigger

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<v Speaker 1>piece of that, and a company like b y D

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<v Speaker 1>gives them a beachhet in that. And I just want

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<v Speaker 1>to point out. I mean, the ad rs do trade

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<v Speaker 1>on the New York Stock Exchange. They're up for the

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<v Speaker 1>year just shy of ten percent. But I do think about,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the access for investors ultimately, especially when you're

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<v Speaker 1>President ge it feels like, you know, really honing in,

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<v Speaker 1>homing in on certain industries and either restricting what they

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<v Speaker 1>can do or whether they can be listed on the

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<v Speaker 1>New York Stock you know, on US exchanges. And I

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<v Speaker 1>do wonder what the futures are how investors ultimately will

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<v Speaker 1>continue to be able to tap into this well, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>the the idea at least the Chinese would like, um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the rest of the world to be able

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<v Speaker 1>to help them fund the transition, but um, a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of countries increasingly reviewing, you know, sort of the auto

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<v Speaker 1>business as it's a potentially protected industry something because it's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be one of the biggest consumer products forever.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's it's trans Transit is just that, and

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<v Speaker 1>so's it'll be interesting to see just how dependent do

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<v Speaker 1>we want to become on foreign automakers who aren't German

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<v Speaker 1>or Japanese, right exactly, Jim to me, it's also a

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<v Speaker 1>story about how Tesla is increasingly not the only game

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<v Speaker 1>in town when it comes to e vs. Not to

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<v Speaker 1>mention you know the companies that you mentioned, but also

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<v Speaker 1>the US rivals Ford and the US and Ford and GM.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean Tesla made what I consider to be a

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<v Speaker 1>strategic mistake in not pushing ahead with the truck business.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean they have left you know, they sort of

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<v Speaker 1>left an open lane for both UM, you know, Ford

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<v Speaker 1>and GM in here one fift lightning. They cannot make

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<v Speaker 1>it fast enough in order to it. They just stopped

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<v Speaker 1>taking orders because how can you not jump into that market.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, the the regular gasoline powered forward one is

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<v Speaker 1>the most sold vehicle, single vehicle in the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>It is a hugely profitable piece. It is the reason

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<v Speaker 1>there is still four and to allow that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>to happen where they say the cyberstruck will get around

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<v Speaker 1>to it. No, this was a mistake and I had

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<v Speaker 1>a filling in two or three years. People are going

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<v Speaker 1>to be saying Tesla could have had this market to itself,

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<v Speaker 1>didn't and it it gave a lifeline to Ford. It's

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<v Speaker 1>gonna mean also that GM, with UM you know, its

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<v Speaker 1>own evs you know trucks is going to also have

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<v Speaker 1>a way to compete against Tesla long term, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>a very profitable part of the market. Jim really quickly,

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<v Speaker 1>just about twenty five seconds, is b y D also

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<v Speaker 1>potentially have an advantage in terms of um. China has

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<v Speaker 1>been on such a mission to line up lithium, cobalt, nicols,

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<v Speaker 1>some these key minerals for e V batteries. Is that

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<v Speaker 1>going to give them maybe potentially an advantage going ahead,

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<v Speaker 1>just quickly at least short term. It it will mean

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<v Speaker 1>simply because it's been so difficult to line up those resources,

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<v Speaker 1>and so they'll have the ability to do it not

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<v Speaker 1>only from resources in China but also in places in

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<v Speaker 1>South America where China also has influence. Great story, and

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<v Speaker 1>it is the international cover story. It'll be hitting the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg terminal at five pm Wall Street time, so be

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<v Speaker 1>sure to check it out. Jim Ellis come back more often.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you, We love, We love. Jim Ellis Assistant managing

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<v Speaker 1>at a Bloomberg Business Week. You're listening to Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio. We want to get to one of

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<v Speaker 1>the most read stories on the Bloomberg Today, it's about

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<v Speaker 1>the recent CEO drama at the private equity from Carlisle Group.

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<v Speaker 1>The drama, of course, you know Carli's CEO, Kusan Lee,

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<v Speaker 1>abruptly pushed out the door by the company's board. Earlier

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<v Speaker 1>today on Bloomberg Surveillance. Carlisle Group co chairman and co

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<v Speaker 1>founder and host a peer to peer conversations on Bloomberg,

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<v Speaker 1>David Rubinstein address the situation on how you get ready

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<v Speaker 1>for the next generation of leaders. There's no perfect model.

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<v Speaker 1>Each of the firms have gone through it in different ways.

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<v Speaker 1>I think a good thing to do is to have

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<v Speaker 1>somebody who's been at a firm for a long time

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<v Speaker 1>part of the culture. They know the ethos of the organization,

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<v Speaker 1>and gradually they come in and take over control and

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<v Speaker 1>the founders step back. But it's more complicated than a

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<v Speaker 1>typical situation. So let's suppose you're lou Gerstner. You're the

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<v Speaker 1>CEO of IBM, and you retire. When you retire, you

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<v Speaker 1>don't own twenty or thirty percent of the company still,

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<v Speaker 1>and you're not still you know, a major investor in

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<v Speaker 1>the funds. It's a different situation. You're not a founder

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<v Speaker 1>so all the founders of the large private equity firms

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<v Speaker 1>are still involved, uh largely with some exceptions, still involved

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<v Speaker 1>in as owners, investment committee members and as big shareholders.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's a little different than the lou Gersner situation

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<v Speaker 1>or Jack Well situation when they retire and they don't

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<v Speaker 1>really control the company through the owner ownership, there's large

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<v Speaker 1>shares shares in the company. That was Carlisle Group founder

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<v Speaker 1>and co executive chairman David Rubinstein, also the post of

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubinstein on Bloomberg TV. That was

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<v Speaker 1>him earlier on Bloomberg Surveillance. I want to bring in

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<v Speaker 1>Heather purl Burg. She's private equity reporter for Bloomberg near.

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<v Speaker 1>She joined us on the phone from Washington, d C.

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<v Speaker 1>And she's the co author along Don Limb, of one

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<v Speaker 1>of the most read stories on the Bloomberg terminal, all

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<v Speaker 1>about the CEO drama at Carlisle Group and what we're

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<v Speaker 1>learning about that transition as we speak. They're good to

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<v Speaker 1>have you with us. So how did this all go

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<v Speaker 1>down at Carlisle Group a few weeks ago? Well, let's

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<v Speaker 1>say this hole debacle was not managed the way you'd

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<v Speaker 1>expect from a top tier firm like Carlyle. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>even comparing it to Glenn Younkin's exit the last CEO,

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<v Speaker 1>which was telegraphed from a public relations perspective, really well managed.

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<v Speaker 1>This was kind of a mess. Um. You know, we're

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<v Speaker 1>talking about ten pm press release on a Sunday night.

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<v Speaker 1>Took everyone on Wall Street by surprise, and people have

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<v Speaker 1>been kind of trying to unpack it ever since. So yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>so what as we've as you guys too, have been

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<v Speaker 1>unpacking it and writing about it. What more have we

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<v Speaker 1>kind of learned about how this is playing out? Well?

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<v Speaker 1>It sounds like what happened is a big conflict between

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<v Speaker 1>q Sun Lee the CEO, and the founders was really

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<v Speaker 1>at the heart of it. Uh, The board sort of

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<v Speaker 1>leaned towards David Rubinstein on the side of the founders

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<v Speaker 1>and essentially pushed Lee out. Um. You know, he has

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<v Speaker 1>been the CEO for about six years. He started with

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<v Speaker 1>Glenn Youngcan, who ironically he himself kind of pushed out

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<v Speaker 1>a few years ago. Young Can went on to be

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<v Speaker 1>the Governor of Virginia, and Lee was making a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of changes which people would say was necessary, um, going

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<v Speaker 1>into new businesses, making Carlyle more competitive, but sort of

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<v Speaker 1>icing out the founders and changing the culture in a

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<v Speaker 1>way that was really controversial. So where does where does

0:11:45.800 --> 0:11:47.959
<v Speaker 1>Carlisle go from here? And what do we know about

0:11:48.160 --> 0:11:51.080
<v Speaker 1>how they're going to bring in somebody? You know, there's

0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:54.040
<v Speaker 1>a search going on, is you right? What's the direction

0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:57.240
<v Speaker 1>that they need to move in? Well, Carlisle has kind

0:11:57.280 --> 0:12:00.839
<v Speaker 1>of bigger underlying issues at this point, I mean this

0:12:00.960 --> 0:12:04.160
<v Speaker 1>identity crisis as we called it. Where they really got

0:12:04.200 --> 0:12:07.320
<v Speaker 1>their footing is a buyout shop, but they've had to

0:12:07.400 --> 0:12:10.720
<v Speaker 1>push into new businesses to compete with Blackstone, KKR and

0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:15.480
<v Speaker 1>the others. Now they have credit insurance, retail, and they've

0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:18.000
<v Speaker 1>expanded in New York, but they're still based in DC.

0:12:18.679 --> 0:12:21.760
<v Speaker 1>They kind of made their name doing defense related investments,

0:12:21.800 --> 0:12:24.760
<v Speaker 1>but now they've had to pivot to technology and healthcare.

0:12:25.360 --> 0:12:28.600
<v Speaker 1>They really need someone who's gonna kind of keep pushing

0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:33.120
<v Speaker 1>them in a new and competitive direction. But who knows

0:12:33.160 --> 0:12:37.079
<v Speaker 1>that the founders really loom large. I mean Rubenstein said

0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:40.440
<v Speaker 1>it himself. They have a huge percentage of ownership in

0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:44.760
<v Speaker 1>the company. I think it's collectively of the stock between

0:12:44.760 --> 0:12:48.000
<v Speaker 1>the three founders, so a large portion of their own

0:12:48.120 --> 0:12:51.400
<v Speaker 1>wealth is tied up in this company, and they generally

0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:56.280
<v Speaker 1>control the boards. They have institutional relationships and knowledge, and

0:12:56.640 --> 0:12:59.080
<v Speaker 1>they don't want to be completely iced out and pushed

0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:01.720
<v Speaker 1>to the side. There. I would have thought the founders,

0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:05.400
<v Speaker 1>who uh do wield a lot of influence, would have

0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:09.760
<v Speaker 1>been swayed by just the share price of Carlisle alone,

0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:13.040
<v Speaker 1>which you include in your reporting. Carlisle shares have advanced

0:13:13.040 --> 0:13:16.720
<v Speaker 1>more than fifty percent since Lee became Seal CEO, even

0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:18.920
<v Speaker 1>including the recent sell off. That compares with a four

0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:21.679
<v Speaker 1>percent gain from the time of the company's IPO back

0:13:21.679 --> 0:13:25.840
<v Speaker 1>in twenty twelve to Januar, when the founders seeded control.

0:13:26.320 --> 0:13:29.120
<v Speaker 1>Typically that would have been enough. And I do wonder

0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:31.640
<v Speaker 1>if ultimately, longer term Carlyle is going to end up

0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:34.240
<v Speaker 1>going back towards some of the things that Lee was

0:13:34.280 --> 0:13:39.160
<v Speaker 1>pressing for or moving towards. I think that that is true.

0:13:39.240 --> 0:13:43.360
<v Speaker 1>The stock prices had done significantly better, but compared to

0:13:43.440 --> 0:13:47.800
<v Speaker 1>a black Stone or KKR Apollo, it was still really lagging.

0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:49.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean, some of these other firms were up a

0:13:50.040 --> 0:13:54.920
<v Speaker 1>hundred percent two percent um, and it really Carlisle really

0:13:55.000 --> 0:13:58.719
<v Speaker 1>just wasn't keeping up. There's also other issues as far

0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:02.280
<v Speaker 1>as fundraising gos. They just couldn't really get as much

0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:06.200
<v Speaker 1>ground raising money for their new funds, their flagship private

0:14:06.200 --> 0:14:10.000
<v Speaker 1>equity fund and they're seeing a lot of high profile exits,

0:14:10.080 --> 0:14:14.079
<v Speaker 1>which is concerning to the founders and two investors of

0:14:14.160 --> 0:14:16.480
<v Speaker 1>these you know, all of these private equity firms. They're

0:14:16.480 --> 0:14:18.520
<v Speaker 1>looking at things like that when they make decisions on

0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:21.000
<v Speaker 1>where to put their money. Hey, just got about fifteen seconds.

0:14:21.000 --> 0:14:24.680
<v Speaker 1>But sometimes, you know, observers will say the old guard

0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:26.320
<v Speaker 1>has to let the new guard find their way. Are

0:14:26.320 --> 0:14:30.800
<v Speaker 1>people saying that and just very quickly. I think there's

0:14:30.280 --> 0:14:35.160
<v Speaker 1>a mixed feeling going on. Careed Rubenstein and the others. No,

0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:38.240
<v Speaker 1>they need to make way for you know, new leaders,

0:14:38.320 --> 0:14:41.320
<v Speaker 1>but they don't want the firm to go down and flame. Alright,

0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:43.600
<v Speaker 1>Heather pearl Burk, thank you so much, great reporting. Private

0:14:43.600 --> 0:14:46.160
<v Speaker 1>equity reporter AP Bloomberg News on the phone in d C.

0:14:48.920 --> 0:14:52.960
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg

0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:57.400
<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. All right, um,

0:14:57.440 --> 0:14:58.760
<v Speaker 1>one thing we do all get a lot of his

0:14:58.880 --> 0:15:01.760
<v Speaker 1>social media did have a batch of primaries around the

0:15:01.760 --> 0:15:04.200
<v Speaker 1>country today. I'll make the connection with that in mind.

0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:06.440
<v Speaker 1>A story in our top Tech menu in the Bloomberg

0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:08.680
<v Speaker 1>checks into what TikTok is up to as it gets

0:15:08.680 --> 0:15:11.200
<v Speaker 1>ready for the round of mid terms. Come to Vampire,

0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:14.480
<v Speaker 1>the story by Alex brinca technology reporter for Bloomberg New

0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:16.400
<v Speaker 1>She joins us this afternoon on the phone from our

0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:19.920
<v Speaker 1>Los Angeles bureau. So, Alex, what is TikTok doing to

0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:23.120
<v Speaker 1>try to keep its platform quote unquote safe ahead of

0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:25.640
<v Speaker 1>mid terms here in the US? And I think, actually,

0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:27.560
<v Speaker 1>you know what, I'm sorry, I have to just you know,

0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:30.400
<v Speaker 1>ask with the context of who owns TikTok and why

0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:33.680
<v Speaker 1>this is so important and all level set there. So

0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:37.120
<v Speaker 1>Bite Dance is a Chinese company UM that owns TikTok,

0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:39.480
<v Speaker 1>which operates here in the US. UM it's a that

0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:42.840
<v Speaker 1>short form video app where UM where content can go

0:15:43.040 --> 0:15:45.840
<v Speaker 1>viral in a matter of seconds, and a lot of

0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:48.800
<v Speaker 1>US users are spending much of their time on these days,

0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:51.600
<v Speaker 1>and so when it comes to where people are spending time,

0:15:51.920 --> 0:15:55.960
<v Speaker 1>you're guaranteed to see political information, especially before US election.

0:15:56.400 --> 0:15:59.600
<v Speaker 1>For this round, TikTok is doing what we've seen a

0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:02.200
<v Speaker 1>lot of the UM social media companies do and basically

0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:05.480
<v Speaker 1>trying to shore itself up against that kind of term.

0:16:05.520 --> 0:16:08.480
<v Speaker 1>We hear a lot misleading information. UM. There are a

0:16:08.480 --> 0:16:12.360
<v Speaker 1>few things specifically that UM TikTok is doing. For one,

0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:16.160
<v Speaker 1>they're really leaning into this ban on political advertisements that

0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:20.880
<v Speaker 1>they put in place before the election that they're continuing

0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:25.240
<v Speaker 1>through UM this cycle. And specifically UM, they are banning

0:16:25.320 --> 0:16:29.440
<v Speaker 1>influencers from posting paid political content. Now, in the past,

0:16:29.600 --> 0:16:33.680
<v Speaker 1>influencers were UM kind of looped into this blanket ban UM,

0:16:33.720 --> 0:16:36.080
<v Speaker 1>but they saw some challenges with some of that paid

0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:40.800
<v Speaker 1>content UM, where organizations were paying content creators to make

0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:45.640
<v Speaker 1>videos supporting political campaigns or political issues. UM. And now

0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:48.560
<v Speaker 1>they are making sure that that ban is really enforced

0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:52.320
<v Speaker 1>this year. They're also launching something called a kind of

0:16:52.360 --> 0:16:56.400
<v Speaker 1>elections center. They're saying, look, if we see misinformation on

0:16:56.440 --> 0:17:00.600
<v Speaker 1>the platform, we can redirect people that direction. Now, the

0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:03.640
<v Speaker 1>last thing I'll point out that is very TikTok ESK.

0:17:03.760 --> 0:17:05.840
<v Speaker 1>If you've never been on the app, when you open

0:17:05.920 --> 0:17:10.800
<v Speaker 1>it up, that main page is called the four you feed, Yeah,

0:17:10.840 --> 0:17:14.040
<v Speaker 1>the f hashtag f yp UM. It's the place that

0:17:14.440 --> 0:17:16.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, videos go viral. It's a place that a

0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:18.879
<v Speaker 1>lot of people spend their time. UM. It's also the

0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:22.280
<v Speaker 1>place that you know, garners the most views on videos.

0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:24.639
<v Speaker 1>For any post that anyone posts that is kind of

0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:29.120
<v Speaker 1>flagged by their technology algorithms or by human moderators, if

0:17:29.160 --> 0:17:31.880
<v Speaker 1>it has any misleading information, it will be pulled from

0:17:31.880 --> 0:17:35.360
<v Speaker 1>the platform. But if it has also information that's not verified,

0:17:35.760 --> 0:17:38.760
<v Speaker 1>it will be basically tagged to disallow it from getting

0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:41.359
<v Speaker 1>on that f yp so bottom line is here no

0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:46.040
<v Speaker 1>political advertisements, and they're basically trying to suppress anything that

0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:48.720
<v Speaker 1>is bad info on the platform. All right. We also

0:17:48.760 --> 0:17:51.560
<v Speaker 1>heard this week um Alex from Meta, you know, putting

0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:54.880
<v Speaker 1>out their playbook in advance of elections. So what you're

0:17:54.920 --> 0:17:56.760
<v Speaker 1>telling me is that we're all set, We're all only

0:17:56.760 --> 0:18:00.679
<v Speaker 1>going to get truth, no misinformation on social media or not.

0:18:01.760 --> 0:18:03.679
<v Speaker 1>But this is this is where you know, by colleague

0:18:03.720 --> 0:18:05.320
<v Speaker 1>Kurt Wagner and I had a chance to chat to

0:18:05.640 --> 0:18:09.680
<v Speaker 1>um metas policy boss called Nick clegg Um. He basically

0:18:09.720 --> 0:18:12.400
<v Speaker 1>came out and said, look, we think we have a playbook,

0:18:12.400 --> 0:18:15.000
<v Speaker 1>but that doesn't mean we're being complacent. Um, you know,

0:18:15.480 --> 0:18:18.399
<v Speaker 1>there will always be folks who are posting misinformation on

0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:20.720
<v Speaker 1>the platform. Carol, I will say, no, I'm sure I'm

0:18:20.720 --> 0:18:23.199
<v Speaker 1>going to see some stuff that um it would not

0:18:23.359 --> 0:18:25.520
<v Speaker 1>fly through the fact checkers that a lot of these

0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:28.760
<v Speaker 1>companies work with. UM. That being said, you know, it's

0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:32.400
<v Speaker 1>been what six years since Metta in particular has come

0:18:32.480 --> 0:18:36.439
<v Speaker 1>under fire for how it hosts information and political ads

0:18:36.480 --> 0:18:39.520
<v Speaker 1>on its platform. So the company says like, look, we

0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:42.000
<v Speaker 1>think we have a playbook that is working from the

0:18:42.080 --> 0:18:45.840
<v Speaker 1>last general election. UM. That company does allow ads, and

0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:48.640
<v Speaker 1>those ads will need to be vetted. Uh. They also

0:18:48.680 --> 0:18:51.480
<v Speaker 1>will not allow any changes to adds in the week

0:18:51.600 --> 0:18:55.160
<v Speaker 1>prior to UM the closing of voting to make sure

0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:57.399
<v Speaker 1>that they can catch anything. But you know, if I

0:18:57.440 --> 0:19:00.080
<v Speaker 1>were a betting woman, I would probably guess we're to

0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:02.640
<v Speaker 1>see some things pop up. Okay, So that's that's the question, Alex,

0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:04.119
<v Speaker 1>And we'll have a minute left. But how is it

0:19:04.280 --> 0:19:07.400
<v Speaker 1>a platform like TikTok going to verify if somebody's being

0:19:07.440 --> 0:19:12.120
<v Speaker 1>paid for doing some sort of post versus just expressing

0:19:12.119 --> 0:19:14.760
<v Speaker 1>their support for a certain candidate. Yeah, And their tactics

0:19:14.760 --> 0:19:17.960
<v Speaker 1>here are basically to try to educate creators in advance

0:19:18.160 --> 0:19:21.679
<v Speaker 1>and expect that they'll uh, you know, go along with

0:19:21.760 --> 0:19:24.480
<v Speaker 1>the rules that are expected by the FTC in terms

0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:26.960
<v Speaker 1>of tagging things as an ad. If they see something

0:19:27.040 --> 0:19:28.959
<v Speaker 1>that's been tagged as an ad that um, you know,

0:19:29.160 --> 0:19:31.879
<v Speaker 1>does have political information in it, they will take it down.

0:19:32.040 --> 0:19:34.600
<v Speaker 1>But that is a point there that you know, you

0:19:34.680 --> 0:19:37.480
<v Speaker 1>have to hope that content creators will also be good

0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:40.159
<v Speaker 1>actors and make sure that they're following the rules that

0:19:40.200 --> 0:19:44.120
<v Speaker 1>TikTok is trying to share quite a bit in advance

0:19:44.200 --> 0:19:46.480
<v Speaker 1>to make sure that they can head off anything like that. Alright,

0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:48.199
<v Speaker 1>great update on what's going on in the world of

0:19:48.240 --> 0:19:51.080
<v Speaker 1>social media, especially when it comes to those upcoming elections

0:19:51.080 --> 0:19:54.480
<v Speaker 1>here on this primary day. Alex Barenka sis Technology Report

0:19:54.520 --> 0:19:56.639
<v Speaker 1>up Bloomberg News on the phone from her l A bureau.

0:19:56.720 --> 0:20:00.840
<v Speaker 1>I mean politicians, right, candidates, they know how fluential and

0:20:01.040 --> 0:20:04.040
<v Speaker 1>how persuasive social media can. But you're smiling. TikTok is

0:20:04.119 --> 0:20:06.880
<v Speaker 1>so addictive, Carol. Just do yourself a favor. Just don't

0:20:06.920 --> 0:20:16.440
<v Speaker 1>download it. I'm roc journal. Yeah, but you let me drive? No, no, no,

0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:26.320
<v Speaker 1>all right, please, I want to drive. It's good question.

0:20:27.000 --> 0:20:34.840
<v Speaker 1>D This is the drive to the clothes well down

0:20:35.240 --> 0:20:37.879
<v Speaker 1>on Bluebird Radio. All Right, we've got about ten minutes

0:20:37.920 --> 0:20:41.520
<v Speaker 1>left in today's trading session. Stocks have been bouncing around

0:20:41.600 --> 0:20:43.920
<v Speaker 1>here off our highs and loads of this session, Tech

0:20:44.560 --> 0:20:48.159
<v Speaker 1>the biggest underperformer. And we did see some market reactions,

0:20:48.160 --> 0:20:50.280
<v Speaker 1>sending stocks a bit higher and rates a bit lower

0:20:50.720 --> 0:20:54.760
<v Speaker 1>following those FED minutes. Some interpretation maybe that the FED

0:20:56.240 --> 0:20:59.880
<v Speaker 1>was thinking about maybe slowing rate moves or making small

0:21:00.000 --> 0:21:01.800
<v Speaker 1>are ones. But I'm reading a lot of analysis and

0:21:01.840 --> 0:21:03.760
<v Speaker 1>they said, folks, the FETE is still going to continue

0:21:03.880 --> 0:21:05.920
<v Speaker 1>raising rates, so just get just get used to it,

0:21:06.040 --> 0:21:08.200
<v Speaker 1>all right, buckle up. Well, let's see what Rebecca Corbyn

0:21:08.280 --> 0:21:10.320
<v Speaker 1>has to think about this. She's founder and CEO of

0:21:10.400 --> 0:21:13.760
<v Speaker 1>Corbin Advisors. She joined us on the phone from Farmington, Connecticut. Rebecca,

0:21:13.800 --> 0:21:15.200
<v Speaker 1>it's good to have you back with us. How are you.

0:21:16.080 --> 0:21:18.600
<v Speaker 1>I'm doing great, Thank you for having me and have

0:21:18.760 --> 0:21:23.320
<v Speaker 1>the August. This August is a little bit busier than

0:21:23.440 --> 0:21:26.639
<v Speaker 1>last year, which is an indication of nuts. What's happening

0:21:26.680 --> 0:21:29.840
<v Speaker 1>on Walster. It doesn't seem like everyone's on vacation, right, No,

0:21:30.119 --> 0:21:32.600
<v Speaker 1>it does not. Yeah, it's a lot going on here,

0:21:32.640 --> 0:21:35.639
<v Speaker 1>all right. So having said that, there does seem to

0:21:35.720 --> 0:21:39.840
<v Speaker 1>be continued even though we've seen the markets trade down

0:21:40.400 --> 0:21:42.919
<v Speaker 1>after several consecutive days it was a four day up

0:21:43.000 --> 0:21:45.560
<v Speaker 1>dates or the it's the first down day in four

0:21:45.680 --> 0:21:47.520
<v Speaker 1>that we've seen on the S and P five hundred.

0:21:47.920 --> 0:21:50.399
<v Speaker 1>So I do wonder do you think some of the

0:21:50.600 --> 0:21:56.000
<v Speaker 1>enthusiasm that we're seeing, certainly on the equity trade makes sense. Listen,

0:21:56.080 --> 0:21:58.639
<v Speaker 1>I think if you look at what's been happening in

0:21:58.800 --> 0:22:02.359
<v Speaker 1>the second quarter UM and the gains that we've made

0:22:02.840 --> 0:22:06.320
<v Speaker 1>after the first quarter and the concern you know, investors

0:22:06.359 --> 0:22:08.680
<v Speaker 1>are starting to come to terms with, Hey, we're in

0:22:08.800 --> 0:22:11.560
<v Speaker 1>this and this is not going to be necessarily short term,

0:22:12.119 --> 0:22:15.520
<v Speaker 1>and we're going to continue to see fallout as this

0:22:15.760 --> 0:22:20.520
<v Speaker 1>economic downturn wends its way through the different sectors. Well,

0:22:20.720 --> 0:22:23.159
<v Speaker 1>how long is it being most pronounced? Sorry? What was

0:22:23.200 --> 0:22:26.680
<v Speaker 1>that last part? Consumer being the most pronounced? Well, let's

0:22:26.680 --> 0:22:28.159
<v Speaker 1>talk a little bit about that, because we're getting a

0:22:28.200 --> 0:22:29.879
<v Speaker 1>good read on the consumer, not just from you know,

0:22:30.000 --> 0:22:32.920
<v Speaker 1>banks a few weeks ago, but this week from retailers

0:22:33.040 --> 0:22:37.200
<v Speaker 1>like Target and Walmart and Home Depot t j X. Well,

0:22:37.320 --> 0:22:39.280
<v Speaker 1>what's the takeaway that you have from not just seeing

0:22:39.600 --> 0:22:42.240
<v Speaker 1>what they're reporting, but also the commerce department numbers that

0:22:42.280 --> 0:22:45.359
<v Speaker 1>we got this morning. Well, I think more importantly, what

0:22:45.520 --> 0:22:48.600
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing across the consumer spectrum from earnings is that

0:22:48.720 --> 0:22:52.640
<v Speaker 1>companies are continuing to implement higher prices. So this whole

0:22:53.119 --> 0:22:58.800
<v Speaker 1>issue with inflation and FED rate increases across consumer, industrial,

0:22:59.040 --> 0:23:03.200
<v Speaker 1>basic material, those inputs. The vast majority of companies have

0:23:03.359 --> 0:23:07.800
<v Speaker 1>communicated that they are continuing to raise prices the second

0:23:07.880 --> 0:23:10.480
<v Speaker 1>quarter and they're still seeing higher costs. So we have

0:23:10.720 --> 0:23:14.400
<v Speaker 1>yet to see the kind of wall that's going to say,

0:23:14.520 --> 0:23:17.520
<v Speaker 1>you know what, no moss um, We're going to reverberate.

0:23:17.640 --> 0:23:20.040
<v Speaker 1>So that's still happening. It's still was reported on the

0:23:20.080 --> 0:23:22.919
<v Speaker 1>second quarter. How do you make sense of especially within

0:23:23.000 --> 0:23:28.320
<v Speaker 1>the retail community this week where Walmart investors reacted pretty positively,

0:23:28.600 --> 0:23:31.720
<v Speaker 1>and you know, it seemed more positive in terms of

0:23:31.760 --> 0:23:33.920
<v Speaker 1>the release we got from this company. Mind you they

0:23:34.240 --> 0:23:36.439
<v Speaker 1>guided us lower just about three weeks ago, But then

0:23:36.480 --> 0:23:39.520
<v Speaker 1>Target comes out another retailer, and it's a little bit

0:23:39.560 --> 0:23:42.680
<v Speaker 1>more of a negative tone and certainly negative investor reaction.

0:23:43.080 --> 0:23:47.320
<v Speaker 1>Those are both got big exposure right to consumers. So

0:23:47.480 --> 0:23:49.480
<v Speaker 1>how does how do you make sense of that? Since

0:23:50.200 --> 0:23:52.800
<v Speaker 1>it sounds like overall that you're saying anything with kind

0:23:52.840 --> 0:23:56.440
<v Speaker 1>of consumer exposure you maybe want to back off of. Well,

0:23:57.240 --> 0:23:59.639
<v Speaker 1>actually you want to take advantage of weakness in the

0:23:59.680 --> 0:24:03.440
<v Speaker 1>smart it right Walmart, Target these are tried and true

0:24:03.480 --> 0:24:07.840
<v Speaker 1>companies and they will make it through whatever vicissitudes we're seeing.

0:24:08.440 --> 0:24:11.560
<v Speaker 1>I think the bigger focus is that people are feeling

0:24:11.600 --> 0:24:13.600
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of a reprieve in terms of consumer

0:24:13.600 --> 0:24:17.639
<v Speaker 1>and gas prices have come down. That's being reflected. Restaurants

0:24:17.640 --> 0:24:21.800
<v Speaker 1>are still strong, but we are going into a choppy

0:24:21.880 --> 0:24:24.200
<v Speaker 1>period and we'll continue to go into a choppy period.

0:24:24.240 --> 0:24:26.200
<v Speaker 1>We're going to go back to school people. There will

0:24:26.240 --> 0:24:29.520
<v Speaker 1>be reality check. We're looking at um back to school

0:24:29.840 --> 0:24:33.119
<v Speaker 1>retail sales and to see how how that does. But

0:24:33.400 --> 0:24:35.520
<v Speaker 1>this does have a long tail, and you asked me

0:24:35.600 --> 0:24:39.560
<v Speaker 1>earlier how long does it laugh. We're predicting that when

0:24:39.640 --> 0:24:43.560
<v Speaker 1>companies come out in January and February of three, they

0:24:43.720 --> 0:24:46.680
<v Speaker 1>will set the bar with their guidance and it will

0:24:46.760 --> 0:24:51.960
<v Speaker 1>likely be conservative. Rebecca, you're a disconnect with yep. Well,

0:24:52.000 --> 0:24:54.200
<v Speaker 1>I was gonna say, you do so much research about sentiment,

0:24:54.480 --> 0:24:57.520
<v Speaker 1>and I want to understand how investors are feeling right

0:24:57.560 --> 0:24:58.960
<v Speaker 1>now and how how you know we get it. You

0:24:59.000 --> 0:25:00.639
<v Speaker 1>gave us a good idea about shumors and what we

0:25:00.800 --> 0:25:04.359
<v Speaker 1>learned in recent weeks, but what's investor sentiment? Because again

0:25:04.400 --> 0:25:06.440
<v Speaker 1>I go back to this idea of this puzzling rally

0:25:06.480 --> 0:25:09.960
<v Speaker 1>that we've seen in a hiking cycle, and you know,

0:25:10.040 --> 0:25:11.680
<v Speaker 1>with the FED that is basically said, we're going to

0:25:11.720 --> 0:25:15.720
<v Speaker 1>do whatever it takes to get inflation under control. So

0:25:16.840 --> 0:25:19.760
<v Speaker 1>great question one is heading into the earning season for

0:25:19.840 --> 0:25:24.240
<v Speaker 1>the second quarter, investors generalists that we surveyed were very barished.

0:25:24.320 --> 0:25:27.200
<v Speaker 1>We had actually had not seen the level of bearishness

0:25:27.600 --> 0:25:31.240
<v Speaker 1>that we saw heading into the second quarter until when

0:25:31.280 --> 0:25:33.879
<v Speaker 1>we saw it in December of which was actually a

0:25:33.960 --> 0:25:37.680
<v Speaker 1>mini industrial recession. So the bearishness was at the same

0:25:37.840 --> 0:25:41.800
<v Speaker 1>level as those two periods. It was better than expected

0:25:42.119 --> 0:25:45.719
<v Speaker 1>in terms of earnings and revenue. Both were better than

0:25:45.760 --> 0:25:49.439
<v Speaker 1>consensus for the vast majority of companies. So we're seeing

0:25:49.800 --> 0:25:53.119
<v Speaker 1>a reaction from investors that says, you know what I was.

0:25:53.240 --> 0:25:55.600
<v Speaker 1>I thought we were going in But we're still seeing

0:25:55.640 --> 0:26:00.280
<v Speaker 1>record performance, We're still seeing record backlog. There is rans

0:26:00.480 --> 0:26:04.920
<v Speaker 1>in this economy. Industrials are doing actually quite well. Um,

0:26:05.080 --> 0:26:07.720
<v Speaker 1>so they're feeling a little bit better, But make no

0:26:07.800 --> 0:26:10.120
<v Speaker 1>mistake about it, we get into the third quarter. That's

0:26:10.160 --> 0:26:12.159
<v Speaker 1>kind of the last stop on the bus before you

0:26:12.240 --> 0:26:14.760
<v Speaker 1>have to lower guidance if you see things coming, and

0:26:14.880 --> 0:26:20.000
<v Speaker 1>we're already seeing continued deterioration in materials, for instance in

0:26:20.119 --> 0:26:23.639
<v Speaker 1>July and August. So this is going to continue, but

0:26:23.760 --> 0:26:28.720
<v Speaker 1>investors expectations were worse than what companies delivered, and they're

0:26:28.720 --> 0:26:32.320
<v Speaker 1>starting to again get a tune to this process. We also,

0:26:32.800 --> 0:26:34.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, heading into the second quarter, there was a

0:26:34.920 --> 0:26:37.439
<v Speaker 1>lot more uncertainty with regard to the FED and the impact.

0:26:37.560 --> 0:26:39.960
<v Speaker 1>We now see that impact, so it's not as big

0:26:40.000 --> 0:26:42.360
<v Speaker 1>of an X factor as it was a few months

0:26:42.400 --> 0:26:45.280
<v Speaker 1>ago where we didn't understand what was actually going to transpire.

0:26:45.320 --> 0:26:47.439
<v Speaker 1>And I think it's great that the FED is actually

0:26:47.560 --> 0:26:50.200
<v Speaker 1>coming to terms with the fact that if you raise

0:26:50.320 --> 0:26:53.680
<v Speaker 1>rates as quickly and as aggressively as you do, you know,

0:26:53.880 --> 0:26:56.400
<v Speaker 1>you can get ahead of yourself because these things take

0:26:56.480 --> 0:26:58.320
<v Speaker 1>time six and nine months to work their way through

0:26:58.359 --> 0:26:59.960
<v Speaker 1>the system. Yeah, I think that was a key point

0:27:00.200 --> 0:27:02.920
<v Speaker 1>certainly of what we got from the FMC minutes that

0:27:03.040 --> 0:27:05.120
<v Speaker 1>the you know, talking about this is going to take

0:27:05.160 --> 0:27:06.879
<v Speaker 1>some time. We certainly see a play out in housing

0:27:06.880 --> 0:27:09.000
<v Speaker 1>and mortgage. It feels like already the mortgage market, in

0:27:09.040 --> 0:27:11.800
<v Speaker 1>the housing market, but it does sound like in terms

0:27:11.840 --> 0:27:14.920
<v Speaker 1>of the impact of those FED rate hikes that more

0:27:15.200 --> 0:27:18.040
<v Speaker 1>is to come. Hey, um, we're gonna leave it there, Rebecca.

0:27:18.119 --> 0:27:20.479
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much. Rebecca Corbyn, she's founder and CEO

0:27:20.640 --> 0:27:24.119
<v Speaker 1>at the strategic consultancy and research firm Corbin Advisor, joining

0:27:24.200 --> 0:27:28.400
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from Farmington, Connecticut. Thanks for listening

0:27:28.440 --> 0:27:31.879
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0:27:32.040 --> 0:27:34.159
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0:27:34.200 --> 0:27:36.760
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