1
00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,040
Speaker 1: Joining us now Asana Becheloss CEO and Rock Creek, a

2
00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:06,040
Speaker 1: global investment firm with more than sixteen million dollars in

3
00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:08,720
Speaker 1: assets of Sana, it is so wonderful to see you

4
00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,680
Speaker 1: and get your perspective. What do you think fear or greed?

5
00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:15,040
Speaker 2: Great to see you, Alex. I think we are moving

6
00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:19,480
Speaker 2: closer to neutral. I think all along in the first

7
00:00:19,520 --> 00:00:22,919
Speaker 2: part of the year, no matter what numbers were coming out,

8
00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:25,880
Speaker 2: and as interest rates were going up so fast, the

9
00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:28,960
Speaker 2: equity markets were holding up, and everyone was wondering at

10
00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:32,000
Speaker 2: what point would they slow down. Where we have seen

11
00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:37,000
Speaker 2: the last two weeks that eventually interest rates have caught up,

12
00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:40,560
Speaker 2: And I think where we are now is closer I

13
00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:43,040
Speaker 2: would say to a neutral, I wouldn't say, you know,

14
00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:45,680
Speaker 2: sort of the big emphasis on fear or greed at

15
00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:48,879
Speaker 2: this moment. But what is really interesting, Alex is the

16
00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:52,800
Speaker 2: emphasis for investors has suddenly moved from equity markets to

17
00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:58,279
Speaker 2: bond markets. Everyone is getting a new tutorial on bond markets.

18
00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:02,040
Speaker 3: How many more lessons Asana do you think they still

19
00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:04,600
Speaker 3: have to learn? It's guy, by the way, nice to

20
00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:07,320
Speaker 3: see you too, do you think, I what else? What

21
00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:09,480
Speaker 3: else do we need to learn? In this in this narrative,

22
00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:11,560
Speaker 3: how high do you think yields can go? What do

23
00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:13,839
Speaker 3: you think is driving this yield move?

24
00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:17,640
Speaker 2: Great to see you guys. Also, I think what is

25
00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:21,280
Speaker 2: going on obviously is huge amounts of debt that has

26
00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:26,000
Speaker 2: been issued by governments, by corporations, by everybody is there,

27
00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:28,880
Speaker 2: and we also know that a lot more debt will

28
00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,920
Speaker 2: have to continue to come out into the markets. We

29
00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:36,560
Speaker 2: also know some non US investors in our bond markets

30
00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:39,760
Speaker 2: have slowed down their purchase of our bonds. At the

31
00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:44,240
Speaker 2: same time we are you know, the news, the political news,

32
00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:47,800
Speaker 2: whether it is Speaker McCarthy's news last night or other

33
00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:51,440
Speaker 2: news coming up potentially with government shut down next month,

34
00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:55,800
Speaker 2: are not really helping markets. So they are creating what

35
00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:59,720
Speaker 2: I would call more of uncertainty for investors, and that

36
00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:03,840
Speaker 2: is certainly pushing people one into more bonds and two

37
00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:07,400
Speaker 2: to the longer end of the duration of bonds.

38
00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:12,359
Speaker 1: Ironically, right Asana. So what is the best strategy? I mean,

39
00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:14,519
Speaker 1: do you just buy the long end, sit and hang

40
00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:16,000
Speaker 1: tight and sell equities?

41
00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:16,120
Speaker 2: Like?

42
00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:18,079
Speaker 1: How do you deal with all this?

43
00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:22,639
Speaker 2: I think less than one for investors always has been

44
00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:25,760
Speaker 2: to be diversified, because again, there are so many things

45
00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:28,799
Speaker 2: that could happen between now and then. We could get

46
00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:33,799
Speaker 2: inflation numbers getting getting much more moderate, and this long

47
00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:37,560
Speaker 2: term impact that we've been expecting happening sooner in the

48
00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:40,160
Speaker 2: next over the next few months. If the SET does

49
00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:45,360
Speaker 2: not increase rates, which it probably won't in November and

50
00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:49,280
Speaker 2: possibly not in December. A lot of what we fed

51
00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:53,120
Speaker 2: into the market was the change in the expectation that

52
00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:59,480
Speaker 2: SET would only have maybe one, two or three reduce

53
00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:02,360
Speaker 2: reduction in rates next year versus four or five which

54
00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:06,480
Speaker 2: had been the original expectation. Those expectations can change very fast,

55
00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:08,919
Speaker 2: and then you know, you want to be diversified.

56
00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:14,480
Speaker 3: So a lot of people have diversified into real assets.

57
00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:19,200
Speaker 3: They diversified into utilities, and people have looked to the

58
00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:21,320
Speaker 3: climate change story and tried to figure out whether or

59
00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:23,400
Speaker 3: not they're going to get a real yield, a decent yield,

60
00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:27,880
Speaker 3: sorry off that story. How do you invest in things

61
00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:34,360
Speaker 3: like utilities and climate transformation technology at a time when

62
00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:36,960
Speaker 3: you're being offered five percent in a money market account,

63
00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:40,440
Speaker 3: triple caes are offering you circle fourteen percent. You're getting

64
00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,160
Speaker 3: some really good yields. You could argue in some places

65
00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:45,920
Speaker 3: like that, why would I want to put money into

66
00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:47,640
Speaker 3: climate change.

67
00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:51,560
Speaker 2: So the reason you want to put money into climate

68
00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:55,120
Speaker 2: change is really what we're seeing every day in our

69
00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:58,240
Speaker 2: day lives, right whether it's a flood or a fire

70
00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:00,880
Speaker 2: or all the things that are going on are pushing

71
00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:05,200
Speaker 2: people to look at alternatives for their energy sources. Obviously

72
00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:08,520
Speaker 2: slower than what we expected. However, the big push of

73
00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:12,920
Speaker 2: the infrastructure money that is coming in from the government

74
00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:16,520
Speaker 2: as well as the IRA is actually starting to be felt,

75
00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:19,120
Speaker 2: and probably much more money will be pushed into the

76
00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:22,919
Speaker 2: markets next year, so the momentum will be there. You

77
00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,040
Speaker 2: also are seeing people's habits changing, whether it is buying

78
00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:29,720
Speaker 2: eb cars, whether it is for the big utilities as

79
00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:33,880
Speaker 2: you said, or investing in the new parts of their software,

80
00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:38,120
Speaker 2: let's say, to be able to take on solar energy

81
00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:39,960
Speaker 2: versus just coal and oil.

82
00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:42,839
Speaker 1: But everyone's past the capital is going up pretty hard.

83
00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:47,360
Speaker 1: What does break though, By.

84
00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:51,320
Speaker 2: The way, cost of capital going up affects oil and gas. Also,

85
00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:54,600
Speaker 2: oil and gas industry have to make huge capital investments

86
00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:58,440
Speaker 2: in order to maintain existing production plus new production coming

87
00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:01,960
Speaker 2: on stream, So it's not a question of one needing investment,

88
00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:04,360
Speaker 2: and you know only you only look at sort of

89
00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:07,920
Speaker 2: investments needed on the renewable side. We certainly would need

90
00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:11,880
Speaker 2: investments also on the on the traditional side, And I

91
00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:15,000
Speaker 2: think the question is on the renewable energy side there

92
00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:18,840
Speaker 2: might be a lot more opportunities of smaller capital investments

93
00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,880
Speaker 2: allowing people to diversify their sources of energy much faster

94
00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:26,200
Speaker 2: than the huge amounts you need for the very large

95
00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:27,359
Speaker 2: oil and gas projects.

96
00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:30,040
Speaker 3: That sound has been great to catch up and this

97
00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:32,359
Speaker 3: is anario which you're hugely interested. I saw on the

98
00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:35,000
Speaker 3: best loss, the CEO at Rock Cree