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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Monday edition of Ballots of Power. I'm
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew. We'll have Kaylee Lines with us next hour
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Speaker 2: what all the kids are doing. Kind of amazing to
Speaker 2: see senators working on Super Bowl Sunday.
Speaker 3: It actually happened.
Speaker 2: They weren't there during the game, but they showed up
Speaker 2: when you were probably getting your Guacamolean chips ready. And
Speaker 2: they did advance this bill. It hasn't passed the full set,
Speaker 2: but they had a procedural vote and it went pretty
Speaker 2: well for those looking to help fund our allies in Ukraine, Israel,
Speaker 2: and Taiwan.
Speaker 3: Sixty seven twenty seven.
Speaker 2: A lot of folks think this could pass the full Senate,
Speaker 2: and that would happen no later than Wednesday, and we're
Speaker 2: right back to where we were on Friday with the same.
Speaker 3: Question what happens when it goes to the House.
Speaker 2: I guess it's a good thing though, that they didn't
Speaker 2: have to, you know, get up early and go to
Speaker 2: work today, as I read on the terminal that this
Speaker 2: is one of the least productive work days of the
Speaker 2: year because of the football game. Jack Fitzpatrick came to work.
Speaker 2: He's with us now from Bloomberg Government. You saw the game,
Speaker 2: you came in right, I'm here, They say, even those
Speaker 2: who will because sixteen million people will skip work today,
Speaker 2: the rest of us will be much less productive, apparently
Speaker 2: because of the choices we made last night.
Speaker 3: I hope you're feeling okay.
Speaker 4: And yet the Senate is actually going to work late.
Speaker 4: They can't vote until eight thirty or so, so they're
Speaker 4: working hard on Sunday and then.
Speaker 3: They get to sleep in day.
Speaker 2: That is kind of a big deal, though, for Chuck
Speaker 2: Schumer to pull everybody together on a Super Bowl Sunday
Speaker 2: to make this happen. Would that suggest that it will
Speaker 2: pass the full Senate?
Speaker 4: I mean, the fact that they've gotten sixty seven votes
Speaker 4: on two procedural votes. At this point that may be
Speaker 4: more of a ceiling than a floor. People still could
Speaker 4: get upset if they don't get an amendment vote. They
Speaker 4: were seeking that kind of thing. But clearing sixty twice
Speaker 4: on two key procedural votes, I mean clearly this is
Speaker 4: moving slowly because there are members who won't give unanimous consent,
Speaker 4: but they look like they can get this through the Senate.
Speaker 4: The question then is also how much momentum does it
Speaker 4: have going into the House. Sixty seven is not eighty
Speaker 4: or ninety. The House issues are still there fair.
Speaker 3: Enough before we move to the House.
Speaker 2: There were questions last week about amendments, how that might
Speaker 2: slow things down, whether there might be some border related
Speaker 2: provisions that are added to this, And then there was
Speaker 2: a man named ran Paul who wanted it to block
Speaker 2: this or slow it down to the extent that he could.
Speaker 2: Is that why we're not getting unanimous consent?
Speaker 4: Yes, Ran Paul is at least one reason why we
Speaker 4: don't have unanimous consent. If you've got one person saying
Speaker 4: he's not gonna agree, it's kind of a moot point.
Speaker 4: How many people aren't agreeing, so they're going through step
Speaker 4: by step. Chuck Schumer has still said he would like
Speaker 4: an agreement on which amendments could get votes. But if
Speaker 4: there's not a unanimous consent agreement, it's unclear what the
Speaker 4: path forward is other than it's going to be slowed
Speaker 4: down and then they can force a final vote. It
Speaker 4: looks like Wednesday, So you know, do they increase support
Speaker 4: between now and then? Is there a rallying cry? Are
Speaker 4: there further amendment votes? Anyway to improve it? From members' perspectives,
Speaker 4: That's what's unclear because usually when they have an important bill,
Speaker 4: they find a way to get unanimous consent and get
Speaker 4: everybody to agree on the slate of amendment votes.
Speaker 2: But that is not happening here, not going to happen,
Speaker 2: and when it goes to the House, knowing eighteen, I
Speaker 2: believe Republican senators voted yes in this last round?
Speaker 3: Is that last one?
Speaker 5: Check?
Speaker 3: Seventeen? Okay?
Speaker 2: A discharge petition in the House requires two hundred and eighteen.
Speaker 2: I'm I'm comparing apples and oranges here.
Speaker 3: But you talked about momentum. You get eighty or ninety.
Speaker 3: Are we in a.
Speaker 2: World in which a discharge petition? I know this is wonky.
Speaker 2: Stuff could actually work around Speaker Johnson if he doesn't
Speaker 2: want to bring this to the floor and supporters who
Speaker 2: back it do.
Speaker 4: I mean, first, a discharge petition usually is useful if
Speaker 4: the leadership wants an excuse to end up supporting something,
Speaker 4: if you force their hand, and then they can say, oh,
Speaker 4: you force want hand. The fact that there's been some
Speaker 4: pushback or at least skepticism. We talked last week about
Speaker 4: Mike Rogers, the House Armed Services Chair, saying if we
Speaker 4: don't have an immigration deal, and we don't, it's not
Speaker 4: clear how you can move this forward. There's not a
Speaker 4: huge push in the House right now from even the
Speaker 4: most supportive members. That's the big issue because if the
Speaker 4: leadership aligned and sort of neo conservative hawks of the
Speaker 4: party aren't making a major push, the options for a
Speaker 4: discharge petition are an uphill battle.
Speaker 2: It's entirely likely this thing passes the Senate and it
Speaker 2: just goes nowhere after that, then, right.
Speaker 4: That may be the most likely option. It's hard to
Speaker 4: make a prediction here. Again, how much momentum it has
Speaker 4: coming out of the Senate, how much pressure is put
Speaker 4: on leadership, on key committee leaders like Mike Rodgers and
Speaker 4: other people's people who are supportive of this kind of bill.
Speaker 4: That's the big X factor here. But it is a
Speaker 4: much heavier lift in the House than it has been
Speaker 4: in the Senate, where it's you know, sixty seven isn't
Speaker 4: way more than sixty They need sixty they're getting sixty seven. Again,
Speaker 4: it's not eighty or ninety.
Speaker 2: Three weeks to my account, till the government shutdown.
Speaker 3: No one's talking about it.
Speaker 2: I keep asking people about it, like, oh, no, they're
Speaker 2: gonna figure it out.
Speaker 3: But then it's gonna be two weeks. Then it's gonna
Speaker 3: be one week, and what's gonna happen.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's easy to lose track of time because that
Speaker 4: is March first, for the first partial shutdown deadline, and
Speaker 4: then March eighth. I've been asking consistently the subcommittee leaders
Speaker 4: who are supposed to write the bills to get this done.
Speaker 4: Generally they say it's going pretty well, but the big
Speaker 4: hurdle is there's not a grand agreement to set aside
Speaker 4: major policy fights. Usually when they get an omnibus or
Speaker 4: some sort of means of funding the government, initially they say,
Speaker 4: all right, we're not going to legislate on abortion, access
Speaker 4: or immigration or any of the other many really tough issues.
Speaker 4: We're just going to do our best to agree to
Speaker 4: funding levels. They have not had that kind of conversation,
Speaker 4: so any number of really tough issues could trip them up.
Speaker 4: But what I've heard from members is they have not
Speaker 4: gotten tripped up yet and they're being productive.
Speaker 2: All right, Optimism still alive. Great to see you, Jack,
Speaker 2: I hope you find a chance to recuperate at some
Speaker 2: point today. They're working late, Like you said, a thirty
Speaker 2: to night. Jack will be with them as always at Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: Government Congress reporter and a frequent voice on this program,
Speaker 2: Balance of Power. Let's add the voice of Bill Hoglan.
Speaker 2: We wanted to go to the Bipartisan Policy Center for
Speaker 2: a bit of a reality check and what's happening here
Speaker 2: because the two chambers don't agree, and of course we
Speaker 2: can get inside divisions within the individual caucuses as well.
Speaker 2: But Bill's been watching this for a couple of minutes,
Speaker 2: you might say, following his experience in the Senate.
Speaker 3: And it's good to have you back. Bill. I hope
Speaker 3: you've recovered from the game.
Speaker 2: Not too often you see senators at work on a
Speaker 2: Super Bowl Sunday.
Speaker 3: Were you encouraged.
Speaker 6: Yes, this was the first one. I believe it's the
Speaker 6: first time they've ever worked on a Super Bowl Funday Sunday.
Speaker 6: But of course they journed in time to at least
Speaker 6: see at least second half of the Super Bowl, as
Speaker 6: I understand.
Speaker 2: Well, God bless him. Now they've got some real work
Speaker 2: to do this week. Do you see this bill following
Speaker 2: the procedural votes that have already occurred, and I know
Speaker 2: there are more to follow. They have to get the
Speaker 2: Shell Bill and do some other wonky stuff. But when
Speaker 2: this reaches the floor, will it pass?
Speaker 6: That Senate will pass this supplemental likely it'll have to
Speaker 6: go all the way to Wednesday. They're still trying to
Speaker 6: work out a set of amendments and maybe not have
Speaker 6: any amendments. But the thirty hours post the vote on
Speaker 6: Sunday run out on Wednesday, and by then they will
Speaker 6: pass it. There it's clear it's going to go over
Speaker 6: to the House. Now, the question, as you've raised in
Speaker 6: your earlier comments, about what will happen in the House
Speaker 6: is still very much up in the air. I think
Speaker 6: mister the new Speaker is trying to figure out himself
Speaker 6: as to what strategy he wants to pursue. I believe
Speaker 6: that there are clearly if it was put to a
Speaker 6: vote in the House of Representatives, it would help overwhelmingly pass.
Speaker 6: So there are various approaches he could take, but I
Speaker 6: mentioned one of them, which was a discharge petition. I
Speaker 6: think there will be the votes there for discard petition,
Speaker 6: subject to whether or not the Speaker has an alternative
Speaker 6: that he wants to bring it to the floor, but
Speaker 6: it will get I'm truly expected to make it to
Speaker 6: the floor at some point now. The other option is
Speaker 6: for him to simply strip it all out and send
Speaker 6: back the send it back to the Senate, and the
Speaker 6: Senate amend it, and then it comes back. So yeah,
Speaker 6: we'll get there, I believe at the end of the day,
Speaker 6: though it's going to take a little bit of a struggle.
Speaker 6: And of course, the Senate goes out here after they
Speaker 6: pass this on Wednesday or whenever they get around to
Speaker 6: passing it, and they'll be out until after for another
Speaker 6: week and a half. And then of course this House
Speaker 6: is out for present day recess starting next week for
Speaker 6: two weeks, so there's there's not a lot of time
Speaker 6: here to to get this done, but I am I'm
Speaker 6: an optimist on this one today.
Speaker 2: Well, this is a familiar feeling, Bill Hoagland. He's with
Speaker 2: us from the Bipartisan Policy Center. I hope you can
Speaker 2: hear me a little bit better now, Bill, because I
Speaker 2: want to ask you about Mitch McConnell. Really something watching
Speaker 2: him try to push this legislation and also cope with
Speaker 2: reality at the same time. And his frustration is pretty clear,
Speaker 2: as he said to Lament the commitment that has underpinned
Speaker 2: the longest draft of great power conflict in human history.
Speaker 2: This is idle work for idle minds, and it has
Speaker 2: no place in the US Senate. He's talking about what
Speaker 2: he refers to as how it's become quite fashionable to
Speaker 2: disregard the global interests we have as a global power.
Speaker 2: Is Mitch McConnell going to be disappointed at the end
Speaker 2: of this bill?
Speaker 6: The election is a driving factor for policies decisions right
Speaker 6: now an election year, it always is difficult to get
Speaker 6: policy done. But I'm rather discouraged, as an old Senate staffer,
Speaker 6: that we're letting politics play such a big role in
Speaker 6: such things as the immigration bill last week, which was
Speaker 6: a bipartisan effort on the part of some good senators
Speaker 6: in the United States, both Republicans and Democrats, to bring
Speaker 6: something to the floor. I'm a little discouraged about the
Speaker 6: degree to which the potential presidential nominee, mister Trump, is
Speaker 6: having such an impact upon policies right now when actions
Speaker 6: should be taking place and we should be legislating and
Speaker 6: putting off at least until after the election as to
Speaker 6: what the next policy should be.
Speaker 2: You think we're going to have a government shutdown next month.
Speaker 6: That's a good question. I do think that we hit
Speaker 6: We've already run out of time here. As I said
Speaker 6: that March March first date is coming very quickly, at
Speaker 6: least on the four bills that have to be done
Speaker 6: by March first. At this particular moment, I'm beginning to anticipate,
Speaker 6: since it's very little that's happened in the way of
Speaker 6: actually acting on those bills in the House and the Senate,
Speaker 6: that we're probably looking at another kicking of the can,
Speaker 6: both on the March first and the March eighth. Or again.
Speaker 6: I'm one of those who really believes that a government
Speaker 6: shut down, particularly in an election year, benefits no one a
Speaker 6: no political party, and so I do think we're looking
Speaker 6: at another continuation resolution at least until the end of April,
Speaker 6: when certain things start to really happened under the new
Speaker 6: Fiscal Responsibility Act that was adopted last year, which means
Speaker 6: across the board cuts beginning in April. So I do
Speaker 6: think they're going to try to get these bills done,
Speaker 6: but they're not going to get them done by March
Speaker 6: the first. Right now, given the schedules that recesses and
Speaker 6: the president's recess and other things that are going on.
Speaker 2: Donald Trump has had a heavy hand over these negotiations
Speaker 2: without even being on Capitol Hill. Build To what extent
Speaker 2: do you think he'll impact a final product here when
Speaker 2: it comes to Ukraine specifically.
Speaker 6: Well, I think we've already started to see the impact
Speaker 6: that he has had on such things as the immigration
Speaker 6: bill last week that was brought to the floor. I
Speaker 6: believe that post Super Tuesday, when he should have if
Speaker 6: mister Trump does at that particular point to the former
Speaker 6: president have the requisite number of electoral bologists votes, lucked
Speaker 6: Delegate luck in that it will now become basically his
Speaker 6: policies for the rest for Republicans that are towing to
Speaker 6: his re election, it will really make it very difficult
Speaker 6: to get any bipartisan work done here. Keep in mind
Speaker 6: that we also have a situation here of course, as
Speaker 6: you know, we have an election tomorrow and mister Santos's
Speaker 6: position being up for election, that is, last time I
Speaker 6: looked at the post would indicate that that might flip
Speaker 6: to a Democratic seat, which would really change the model,
Speaker 6: change the make it even more difficult for mister Johnson
Speaker 6: to get work done. So I want to be I
Speaker 6: want to be I want to be an optimist, but
Speaker 6: I can tell you right now that politics are really
Speaker 6: starting to dominate this whole agenda for legislative agenda for
Speaker 6: the rest of the year. And as one who still
Speaker 6: believes that we have to legislate even in an election year,
Speaker 6: this is very disappointing to me.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's hard to ignore. Bill Hoagland. Great to see you. Bill.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken
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Speaker 2: Thirty Interesting reading the write ups on the Trump NATO
Speaker 2: comments this morning, shutters. I read across Europe the way
Speaker 2: the Washington Post put it tremors the word they chose
Speaker 2: across Washington and in European countries already worried about America's
Speaker 2: reliability as an ally and a potential second Trump administration.
Speaker 2: This was in South Conway, South Carolina, where the former
Speaker 2: president made the remarks about countries paying their fair share.
Speaker 2: If I can use that phrase to NATO, and he
Speaker 2: took it a step further here he is from South Carolina.
Speaker 3: Let's listen.
Speaker 7: I said, you got to pay up. They asked me
Speaker 7: that question. One of the presidents of a big country
Speaker 7: stood up, said, well, sir, if we don't pay and
Speaker 7: we're attacked by Russia, will you protect us? I said,
Speaker 7: you didn't pay your delinquent. He said yes, let's say
Speaker 7: that happened. No, I would not protect you. In fact,
Speaker 7: I would encourage them to do whatever.
Speaker 2: The hell they want, whatever the hell they want. The
Speaker 2: line that is still echoing across Washington and European capitals
Speaker 2: as we assemble our panel, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno
Speaker 2: or with us Bloomberg Politics contributors. Genie is great to
Speaker 2: have you back. We missed you the end of last week.
Speaker 2: This is the kind of stuff that Joe Biden is
Speaker 2: talking about. But if you read the polls, voters would
Speaker 2: suggest to you that this kind of talk doesn't matter.
Speaker 2: We saw this side of Donald Trump in a first administer.
Speaker 2: It doesn't seem to bother a lot of Republicans about
Speaker 2: a second one, does it.
Speaker 5: It doesn't so far. But first of all, can we
Speaker 5: just clarify that NATO is not some kind of golf
Speaker 5: course where you pay dues, So right there, he is
Speaker 5: factually wrong. I'm not sure if that matters. Number two,
Speaker 5: the irony of this coming from a man who famously
Speaker 5: doesn't pay people in his own businesses and his vendors. So,
Speaker 5: you know, so much of this just rings narcissism, But
Speaker 5: you get to the reality of the facts on the ground.
Speaker 5: And this is what he has been saying and promising
Speaker 5: for some time, this threat of moving us out of NATO,
Speaker 5: of weakening NATO. And that's why so many people, including
Speaker 5: the Wall Street Journal editorial page, are responding so forcefully. Because,
Speaker 5: of course, from our founding, we have depended on allies
Speaker 5: to help us achieve our national security and economic goals
Speaker 5: without those allies, how do we combat China, for instance,
Speaker 5: in the China Sea, How do we combat the Hutis
Speaker 5: in the Middle East? You know, we depend on allies,
Speaker 5: and of course how do we combat who And as
Speaker 5: he tries to move into Europe, so we do have
Speaker 5: to take him at his word, even though factually it
Speaker 5: is wildly incorrect what he's saying.
Speaker 2: Well, I have to be honest with you, Rick, I
Speaker 2: wonder if he even said it right. This does sound
Speaker 2: like somebody who's showing off at a party trying to
Speaker 2: impress his friends. Yeah, I said, whatever the hell they want.
Speaker 2: I don't know what version of it was said. But
Speaker 2: when you draw response from the Secretary General at NATO,
Speaker 2: you know you're rattling cages here Again, Stoltenberg says, any
Speaker 2: suggestion allies will not defend each other undermines all of
Speaker 2: our security, including that of the US.
Speaker 3: What's your reaction.
Speaker 8: Yeah, Look, I think yeah in Sultenberg has the right approach. Look,
Speaker 8: and I wouldn't worry about it so much. The side
Speaker 8: of hyperbolic things that Donald Trump says, except for the
Speaker 8: fact that he actually acts on them, I mean you know,
Speaker 8: when he was resident, he did cuddle up to his
Speaker 8: favorite dictator, Vladimir Putin, And everything we've learned about him
Speaker 8: is that he puts our enemies ahead of our allies,
Speaker 8: and this is just another example of that, and he
Speaker 8: does it in tangible ways. So yeah, I mean, maybe
Speaker 8: it's just quote like he likes to use locker.
Speaker 3: Room talk showing off at a cocktail party.
Speaker 8: But the reality is it's borne out by our experience.
Speaker 8: And this is a lot different than in the old
Speaker 8: days of complaining that the UN doesn't use our funding
Speaker 8: successfully and that we ought to withhold it until they're
Speaker 8: more efficient. This is a security program based on all
Speaker 8: our self interests. The countries within NATO protect one another
Speaker 8: and the other. They are a much more significant force
Speaker 8: than any of their individual economies or militaries. And so
Speaker 8: maybe he just doesn't understand the basic concept behind NATO.
Speaker 8: But the problem is if he doesn't understand it by now,
Speaker 8: after being commander in chief for four years, then why
Speaker 8: in the world will we think he would abide by
Speaker 8: it in the future.
Speaker 2: Nicki Haley was asked about it on Bloomberg this morning.
Speaker 3: Genie.
Speaker 2: She said, it's a mistake for Trump to side with
Speaker 2: Putin over our allies. Isn't this a big opportunity for her,
Speaker 2: as his former UN ambassador to draw contrast?
Speaker 5: It absolutely is. And you know, Joe Matthew, I'm surprised
Speaker 5: you don't believe that some leader of a big European
Speaker 5: country didn't stand up and say, dear Sir Donald Trump,
Speaker 5: do you believe this? I mean, you know, from start
Speaker 5: to finish this stake story is amusing if it wasn't
Speaker 5: so serious. And to your point, Nikki Haley does have
Speaker 5: an opportunity here to make it clear. And this is
Speaker 5: what I think is missing in all of this is
Speaker 5: Donald Trump as usual is reflecting the view of a
Speaker 5: good segment of the Republican Party on the far right
Speaker 5: that has long been isolationist. And you can talk to
Speaker 5: people today. They don't, you know, know about how much
Speaker 5: who owes what to wear, but they do have a
Speaker 5: question as to why, when we're suffering at home, our
Speaker 5: money should be going abroad. And that is something that
Speaker 5: Nicki Haley and others in the Republican and Democratic Party,
Speaker 5: including our President, have got to explain. Why is it
Speaker 5: in our interest to send this money to help Ukraine
Speaker 5: in this fight, and they can start with the simple
Speaker 5: fact that NATO has like, what over fifty percent of
Speaker 5: the GDP in the world, you know, so there are
Speaker 5: facts on the ground to support what we're doing. It's
Speaker 5: in our interest, but you can't expect people to know
Speaker 5: that if you don't explain it.
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Speaker 9: It's been a week over the last week in which
Speaker 9: we've been very focused on domestic politics, but specifically the
Speaker 9: Senate's efforts in the last over the course of last weekend,
Speaker 9: even through the first half of the Super Bowl to
Speaker 9: try to pass an aid package that's going to have
Speaker 9: funding not just for Ukraine but also for Israel at
Speaker 9: a time where we're seeing things getting perhaps a little
Speaker 9: bit more contentious between Israel and the Biden administration with
Speaker 9: their handling of the ongoing war with a moss in Gaza.
Speaker 2: We heard from Benjamin dat Ya, who on Sunday morning,
Speaker 2: which was illuminating now as the IDF turns to the
Speaker 2: south and they go to Rafa. You remember we're talking
Speaker 2: a lot about the Rafa Gates.
Speaker 3: That's right on the border with Egypt.
Speaker 2: That's a critical area and that's where a lot of
Speaker 2: civilians had evacuated too.
Speaker 9: Right, and where they're going to member AID through.
Speaker 2: Absolutely right, because the bombing was happening in the north.
Speaker 2: So this is creating a potentially deadly situation. I guess
Speaker 2: dozens of civilians are said to have been killed already,
Speaker 2: but I haven't seen a hard number on that from
Speaker 2: the government. I mentioned Benjamin Dettanya, who we was on
Speaker 2: ABC News ABC this Week with George Stephanopp is talking
Speaker 2: about the action in Rafa and the urging from the
Speaker 2: Biden administration, the urging for restraint.
Speaker 3: Here's what he said.
Speaker 10: Well, Rafa is a very small percentage of Gaza, and
Speaker 10: I think it's about ten percent or fifteen percent.
Speaker 3: I mean the estimates.
Speaker 10: We are very north of Gaza that has already been cleared.
Speaker 2: Well, there's an estimate one point four million people in
Speaker 2: that area right now. And as the as the German
Speaker 2: Foreign Minister said, they can't can't they can't just disappear.
Speaker 3: Where are they supposed to go.
Speaker 10: No, well, the areas that we've cleared north of Ralfa
Speaker 10: are plenty of areas there, but we are working out
Speaker 10: a detailed plan to do so.
Speaker 2: This is where we begin our conversation with Higgarshamali, founder
Speaker 2: of Greenwich Media Strategies and a voice of experience in
Speaker 2: the White House as former director for Syria and Lebanon
Speaker 2: of the National Security Council of Guard.
Speaker 3: It's great to see you.
Speaker 2: I wonder how concerned you are now about this new
Speaker 2: direction that the IDEF is taking to the south. Is
Speaker 2: it possible for them to protect civilians or create new
Speaker 2: health minetarian corridors at the same time.
Speaker 11: It's difficult because they have a very short amount of
Speaker 11: time and what they want to do in Rafa. The
Speaker 11: reason they're going to Rafa at all is because they
Speaker 11: weren't able to complete the operation that they foresaw in
Speaker 11: han Yunis. Hanyunis is a Hamas stronghold in the south
Speaker 11: of Gaza. It was believed that that was likely where
Speaker 11: Hamas leaders were hiding and they didn't find them, particularly
Speaker 11: y Yahya Sinhar, who's one of the top Hamas commanders
Speaker 11: and who's believed to really be the mastermind between behind
Speaker 11: October seven, and so that's why they want to move
Speaker 11: on to Rafa. But the problem is they have as
Speaker 11: you as you've reported before, one point four million. I've
Speaker 11: seen numbers up to one point five million. That is
Speaker 11: a significant number of Gazans when you're talking about the
Speaker 11: total population of Gaza being two point two million individuals,
Speaker 11: So that means that the vast majority went into Rafa
Speaker 11: squeezed down there. As it is, situation there is very dire.
Speaker 11: They are in very in conditions that are really not clean,
Speaker 11: not sanitary, not safely, not healthy for children and families.
Speaker 11: And when you're talking about pursuing an operation and they
Speaker 11: need to pursue those operations quickly, they've already started as
Speaker 11: we've seen today, you don't have time really to move.
Speaker 11: It's a nice talking point to say, don't worry, we're
Speaker 11: going to move everybody north, or we're going to move
Speaker 11: them to designated areas. The designated area that I saw
Speaker 11: in Israeli press reporting was the size of Bengorian Airport.
Speaker 11: But there's no way that one point four million people
Speaker 11: can move easily to that area and fit in that
Speaker 11: area and be taken care of in a dignified way,
Speaker 11: and so I'm very concerned that this is going to
Speaker 11: cause chaos. And the US government has said that. Both
Speaker 11: President Biden, the US and ambassador have come out very
Speaker 11: clearly on this.
Speaker 9: Yeah, you're absolutely right. It seems Biden has sharpened in
Speaker 9: many ways his language around Israel and what it should
Speaker 9: do in recent days. And yet it doesn't necessarily seem
Speaker 9: that Bibi Netanyahu is hearing that message. We heard from
Speaker 9: him on the Sunday shows over the weekend. He also
Speaker 9: said those who say that under no circumstances should we
Speaker 9: enter Rafa are basically saying, lose the war. Keep Hamas
Speaker 9: there is that effectively what the administration is telling.
Speaker 11: Israel no what the you know? And and I see
Speaker 11: when I heard that, and I thought that was not
Speaker 11: fair to say publicly, because the Israeli government knows exactly
Speaker 11: what the US government is saying. And what the US
Speaker 11: is trying to say is, listen, you have to prioritize
Speaker 11: your threats and is this threat worth going after? And
Speaker 11: that's how, by the way, that's how the US pursues war.
Speaker 11: Is the threat going worth going after? Given the collateral
Speaker 11: damage you expect to happen, given how many number of
Speaker 11: civilians you know will die, or given how what it
Speaker 11: will be like for these civilians who've moved there to
Speaker 11: uproot yet again and to go where exactly. I heard
Speaker 11: the Israel government. I heard b Natziaho come out and
Speaker 11: he said today I believe that that he agreed with
Speaker 11: the Americans. But again, I mean, I have to have
Speaker 11: to he agreed on it's very much public talking point.
Speaker 11: He said, he agreed on the protection of civilians, and
Speaker 11: therefore they would continue going to Rafa, but that they
Speaker 11: assured everyone they would set up something very solid and
Speaker 11: stable for those civilians there. But there is a reality
Speaker 11: to this, and that is that it's one point four
Speaker 11: to one point five million people. It's no joke, and
Speaker 11: they've already gone into Rafa. And so the US what
Speaker 11: they're trying to say is is this threat really worth?
Speaker 11: And I'll give you an example of that. When we
Speaker 11: had our war against ISIS and we defeated isis that
Speaker 11: nobody can can can question that ISIS fighters still exist.
Speaker 11: We know that it doesn't necessarily mean you have to
Speaker 11: go every single after every single cell, after every single
Speaker 11: fighter or battalion to defeat to actually have a tactical victory,
Speaker 11: and you have to weigh the pros and cons and
Speaker 11: the benefits of each of each operation. And that's what
Speaker 11: the US is saying, is that this one has to
Speaker 11: quote President Biden, was over the top. That's exactly what
Speaker 11: he said, and that's what he meant.
Speaker 2: Regard to Israeli men who were held hostage for well
Speaker 2: months at this point, going back to October seventh, were
Speaker 2: rescued last night. That headline seems to have been obscured
Speaker 2: by the rest of what we're talking about. I wonder
Speaker 2: what that tells you about the potential for other Special
Speaker 2: Forces raids like this to get other hostages out if
Speaker 2: there is no ceasefire.
Speaker 11: You know, I'm glad you mentioned how that news has
Speaker 11: been drowned out because there are a lot of headlines
Speaker 11: will have been focusing. They'll say there was this operation
Speaker 11: where dozens were killed, and a lot of the headlines
Speaker 11: are missing. That there were two hostages released in this
Speaker 11: in this raid in an apartment where they were found,
Speaker 11: which is just fantastic news. It's great news that they
Speaker 11: found them and that they released them, and it boosts
Speaker 11: morale and hope for a lot of these families, of course,
Speaker 11: and for the military to pursue similar operations. The fact
Speaker 11: is it will be hard to release the remaining and
Speaker 11: there are about one hundred and thirty estimated to be
Speaker 11: about one hundred and thirty, and we saw news last
Speaker 11: week saying that about fifty have have have likely died,
Speaker 11: and that's coming from the Israeli government. It would be
Speaker 11: very difficult, unfortunately, to release the remaining in raids. If
Speaker 11: you just look at the history, they were only able
Speaker 11: to release actively release one hostage before this, and the
Speaker 11: other hostages have gone through the prisoner or hostage prisoner swap.
Speaker 11: And now now to that point, those talks continue even
Speaker 11: though you saw headlines last week saying that Netanyahu rejected
Speaker 11: Hamas's latest counter offer. That's typically how these how these
Speaker 11: negotiations go Israel.
Speaker 9: So you still have hope that a deal like that
Speaker 9: can be made despite Israel's pushback.
Speaker 11: Yes, I do have hope for a few reasons. First,
Speaker 11: because the talks we do no continue. In fact, Hamas
Speaker 11: sent a delegation to Cairo to continue to follow up
Speaker 11: on their counter proposal, so that's that's one. And their
Speaker 11: counter offer did not include a demand for a permanent ceasefire.
Speaker 11: It would include a permanent ceasefire, a demand for a
Speaker 11: permanentcy's fire to release all the hostages. But anyway, I digress.
Speaker 11: So that's one reason talks continue. The second is that
Speaker 11: the Hamas and the Israeli government face a lot of
Speaker 11: pressure on both sides domestically, on the Israeli side to
Speaker 11: prioritize the release of hostages and on the Hama side
Speaker 11: to end this war altogether. And most Gosins have said,
Speaker 11: or at least those that we've seen who have been
Speaker 11: in the streets saying just release the captives. They tie
Speaker 11: the two together, and that is a correct assertion to
Speaker 11: tie the two together. So they're both facing this ongoing pressure,
Speaker 11: and you've seen them in the past agree to the
Speaker 11: principle of a ceasefire and hostage prisoner swap, so there's
Speaker 11: no reason it can't happen again. But you have to
Speaker 11: understand that from the Israeli government side, they do believe
Speaker 11: and a lot of US generals agree with this, that
Speaker 11: this continued, the continued aggression and what you're seeing from
Speaker 11: the Israeli side, this brutal campaign, that it also further
Speaker 11: increases the pressure on hamas to move toward a deal,
Speaker 11: and so that's also why you see that strategy from
Speaker 11: the Israeli government side the Guard.
Speaker 3: It's great to see you.
Speaker 2: She's the founder of Greenwich Media Strategies at Gar Shamali.
Speaker 2: We appreciate your expertise always when you join us here
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg. Nick Wadhams is with us now as we
Speaker 2: add the voice of our National Security team leader. He's
Speaker 2: with us at the table and it's good to see you.
Speaker 3: Nick. Thanks for joining.
Speaker 2: Did you see Donald Trump in South Carolina over the weekend.
Speaker 12: I did, Oh, we did that.
Speaker 2: Yes, I'm gonna I'm going to let our listeners and
Speaker 2: viewers have a taste and we'll have you respond. This
Speaker 2: is the comment on NATO, of course, and whether our
Speaker 2: allies are paying their fair share or something like that.
Speaker 2: Here's Donald Trump from South Carolina.
Speaker 7: And I said, you got to pay up. They asked
Speaker 7: me that question. One of the presidents of a big
Speaker 7: country stood up, said, well, sir, if we don't pay
Speaker 7: and we're attacked by Russia, will you protect us? I said,
Speaker 7: you didn't pay your delinquent. He said, yes, let's say
Speaker 7: that happened.
Speaker 3: No, I would not protect you.
Speaker 7: In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the
Speaker 7: hell they want.
Speaker 9: Encourage, yes, not just allowed, actively encourage Nick is something
Speaker 9: else entirely. What has the response been in the national
Speaker 9: security community here in Washington to this.
Speaker 12: The response has been, as you would predict, some exasperation, horror.
Speaker 12: I mean, listen, though you do. There are a couple
Speaker 12: of things about this that we have to take into account.
Speaker 12: One is is this actually true? Did this conversation actually happen?
Speaker 12: Which is not one hundred percent clear. I mean, we
Speaker 12: know that Donald Trump for a long time has been
Speaker 12: extremely skeptical of NATO. There was a big NATO meeting
Speaker 12: in twenty eighteen where he made a lot of threats
Speaker 12: and really threatened to blow things up, but then came around.
Speaker 12: But certainly we'd never heard anything like this before. But
Speaker 12: we are still in the process of trying to figure
Speaker 12: out whether this is an anecdote where he maybe went
Speaker 12: a little bit too far to whip up.
Speaker 3: The crowd, or he would never do I you know, even.
Speaker 12: You know, we there were a lot of things we
Speaker 12: thought would never happen that did end up happening. So
Speaker 12: we're still trying to sort this out. It feels a
Speaker 12: little bit more of a campaign thing than something that
Speaker 12: Donald Trump would actually encourage Russia to do. But you know,
Speaker 12: there's a lot of concern around his what he's saying
Speaker 12: around Russia and Ukraine, and this certainly feeds into that
Speaker 12: bigger narrative.
Speaker 2: JHN Stoltenberg is acting like he said, But you know,
Speaker 2: maybe that's not the point. The language in the coverage
Speaker 2: I find interesting sent shutters across European capitals, tremors across Washington.
Speaker 3: This is Donald Trump. What did people think? They're right?
Speaker 12: I mean, well, that's the other thing. And I think
Speaker 12: you will find that, yes, there is anger, unease, exasperation
Speaker 12: in European capitals. But they have known for some time
Speaker 12: that he is the front runner among Republicans. They know
Speaker 12: exactly what he thinks about NATO. They also know that
Speaker 12: if he wins, he would not be there for more
Speaker 12: than four years, which is an interesting angle because it
Speaker 12: makes you think, well, it could he be you know,
Speaker 12: could he well, you know, that's a whole other question.
Speaker 12: You can get into that, you can get into that tomorrow.
Speaker 12: But would he four years is something that they could
Speaker 12: potentially endure if they're not looking at eight years of
Speaker 12: Donald Trump and this kind of thing. It's like, well,
Speaker 12: if we put our heads down for four years, and
Speaker 12: let's not forget that he was a real ally in
Speaker 12: a lot of ways to places like Poland. US troop
Speaker 12: presence in Europe actually increased in some places during his presidency.
Speaker 12: So it's a mixed track record.
Speaker 9: Finally, Nick, just in our last ninety seconds with you,
Speaker 9: we also got some news over the weekend that the
Speaker 9: Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin is in the hospital again. He
Speaker 9: actually announced it this time, but he's in critical care
Speaker 9: now for a bladder condition. Do we have any idea
Speaker 9: how long he may be out of the mixes we
Speaker 9: deal with all of these gudi political conflicts around the world.
Speaker 9: Because Kathleen hitch is in charge right now, right.
Speaker 12: Right, he transferred authorities, we do not have any sense,
Speaker 12: you know, they're the real question we're trying to figure
Speaker 12: out here is obviously, when he the first go around,
Speaker 12: when he was hospitalized for two weeks, he did not
Speaker 12: disclose it. He did not He was very opaque, wanted
Speaker 12: to guard his privacy jealously. It created a huge amount
Speaker 12: of concern. This time around, we're still trying to figure
Speaker 12: out how serious is it is this something that could
Speaker 12: be a bigger health issue that would really affect his
Speaker 12: ability to do the job, or are they just being
Speaker 12: very careful and making sure that you know everybody in
Speaker 12: the full transparency and stuff like that. We're trying to
Speaker 12: sort it out. But certainly if he's going back to
Speaker 12: the hospital, that suggests that the health issues he had
Speaker 12: in January have not been resolved, and that's going to
Speaker 12: present a great many questions.
Speaker 3: We hear a lot about chain of command.
Speaker 2: I'm sure the Pentagon had its briefings, will be emphasizing
Speaker 2: that point.
Speaker 12: That's right today thirty two thirty, Well, I sent fun
Speaker 12: of questions for pat ryder I.
Speaker 2: Exactly because the timing here is everything, Kayley, which is
Speaker 2: I'm sure why you asked it, considering the fact that
Speaker 2: we're involved in repeated air strikes now against foreign entities,
Speaker 2: never mind what's happening in Israel, and this is a real.
Speaker 9: Story, absolutely, and of course we're seeing perhaps the Secretary
Speaker 9: learned his lesson from last time about making sure we
Speaker 9: all know that story as it's happening, versus learning the
Speaker 9: details later.
Speaker 2: Nick wadhams, we'll get a day off someday. He runs
Speaker 2: our national security operation. Here in the Bloomberg Bureau. We
Speaker 2: always know he's here, which is why he joins us
Speaker 2: here on Balance of Power. We thank you Nick. As always,
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines. This is Bloomberg. Thanks
Speaker 2: for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure
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