Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser. Every day
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Speaker 1: Global News. All right, we do want to focus in on,
Speaker 1: of course, the virus today. We really have some highs
Speaker 1: and lows when it comes to COVID nineteen. We of
Speaker 1: course have talked about the COVID nineteen vaccine being developed
Speaker 1: by Fiser preventing more infections in a study. So that
Speaker 1: is definitely the good excuse me, the good news. The
Speaker 1: rough news, of course, being cases in the US topping
Speaker 1: a hundred thousand for a fourth day, bringing the nation's
Speaker 1: total close to the ten million mark. So a lot
Speaker 1: going on. Let's get to it with Dr Josh Sharfstein.
Speaker 1: Weis Stein for Public Health Practice and Community engagement at
Speaker 1: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health of Johns Hopkins
Speaker 1: Bloomberg School of Public Health, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg,
Speaker 1: of course, founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Dr
Speaker 1: Sharfstein joining us on the phone in Baltimore, So nice
Speaker 1: to have you here with us. So you wake up
Speaker 1: and see these headlines about fiser and you think, what,
Speaker 1: that's great news. I mean, it's certainly great to see
Speaker 1: this kind of promising data. We know that it's got
Speaker 1: to be validated. People are gonna look at it. We
Speaker 1: know they're you know, even have to be more safety
Speaker 1: data collected. But you know, the big question before now
Speaker 1: was whether or not evidence of an immune response was
Speaker 1: really evident that people wouldn't get the disease. And that
Speaker 1: answer appears to be yes. But the vaccine isn't just
Speaker 1: giving people antibodies, it's actually protecting them from getting sick.
Speaker 1: I mean, this is huge, this is massive. At the
Speaker 1: same time we talked about this, Dr Charfstein at the
Speaker 1: top of our broadcast, that an important development, right, It's
Speaker 1: kind of what we've all been working towards. But we
Speaker 1: kind of need to slow down because it of course
Speaker 1: means now we have to kind of make and produce
Speaker 1: and manufacture the vaccine and create the quantity that the
Speaker 1: world needs. Well, the first thing is to make sure
Speaker 1: the results bear out. You know, there will be a
Speaker 1: chance for the Food and Drug Administration to really look
Speaker 1: at the data. There will be an independent advisory committee
Speaker 1: that will look at the data, um, and you know
Speaker 1: that those are really important checks to make sure that
Speaker 1: we're dealing with it's an effective vaccine for the for
Speaker 1: the population. Um. The good news is though that the
Speaker 1: company has already started making the vaccine, So it's not
Speaker 1: a case typically you might wait to see the review
Speaker 1: of the data and then you'd start making it for
Speaker 1: in quantity. But um, the companies here and the other
Speaker 1: companies too, they're making vaccine so that if it turns
Speaker 1: out the vaccine works, you know they have it right away.
Speaker 1: And so the company is projecting maybe ten million doses
Speaker 1: by the end of the year, which is you know,
Speaker 1: it seems like a lot, but of course it's not
Speaker 1: enough for you know, the world or the United States.
Speaker 1: But it's a pretty good start. It's not ten million
Speaker 1: doses two years from now. You know, they've really been
Speaker 1: working very hard to get this going, and so it creates,
Speaker 1: you know, the opportunity the other you know, part of
Speaker 1: the good news here is that the protein that is
Speaker 1: the target of those you know, it's sort of the
Speaker 1: the key aspect of the vaccine um is also targeted
Speaker 1: by other vaccines. So I think there's some optimism that
Speaker 1: if this vaccine works, that the other vaccines which are
Speaker 1: in late age clinical trials, will also work, and that
Speaker 1: will mean we're not just dealing with scaling up one vaccine,
Speaker 1: but maybe a number of vaccines, which hopefully all will
Speaker 1: be very effective. Right, And as you said, we need
Speaker 1: to get through all the safety steps to make sure that.
Speaker 1: I mean, key to this is people who want to
Speaker 1: take it, and I do wonder the more that we explain.
Speaker 1: I mean, there are people who are just anti vaccinations,
Speaker 1: and that's kind of a group that has felt that
Speaker 1: way before COVID, But there are people who I think
Speaker 1: because we've seen this process politicized that it's it's made
Speaker 1: people a little bit nervous about taking it. You know,
Speaker 1: what confidence do you have in terms of the steps
Speaker 1: that are being taken on a safety level that ultimately
Speaker 1: the vaccines, vaccines that are out on the market will
Speaker 1: be safe ones and ones that should be taken by
Speaker 1: all Americans or those that you know, as many as
Speaker 1: it can can be. Well, I think that the Food
Speaker 1: and Drug Administration put out some very reasonable standards for safety,
Speaker 1: and that's why the company is still collecting data for
Speaker 1: safety UM to really make sure there at least a
Speaker 1: couple of months of very good safety data showing a
Speaker 1: very safe vactin and you know, so that does give
Speaker 1: me confidence, but it's also important to realize that vaccines
Speaker 1: are going to be given to a lot of people
Speaker 1: and there may be UM different kinds of safety UH
Speaker 1: signals that come up over time, and so it's just
Speaker 1: as important to continue monitor for safety and monitor for
Speaker 1: the data and effectiveness and be able to adjust the
Speaker 1: vaccine program as that changes over time. If you have
Speaker 1: very strong safety data at the beginning, it's going to
Speaker 1: be very helpful to saving lives, but you're still going
Speaker 1: to need to keep an eye on safety even as
Speaker 1: UM the you know, the number of cases come down.
Speaker 1: We're gonna do some news and come back. But just
Speaker 1: in about forty seconds, is there anything in terms of
Speaker 1: vaccines given to older people versus younger people. Um, is
Speaker 1: there any difference in terms of the safety or the
Speaker 1: ability for an individual to to deal with it? Does
Speaker 1: that have anything to do at the age? Well, that's
Speaker 1: a great question, and that's one of the reasons that
Speaker 1: the data really needs to be reviewd carefully to look
Speaker 1: to see if there's a difference by age. There haven't
Speaker 1: been childs and children yet, but you know, um, people
Speaker 1: younger adults versus older adults. It's a really important question
Speaker 1: because the older adults are really at risk for serious
Speaker 1: at the highest rest for serious illness and death, and
Speaker 1: so that will be what the FDA looks at, will
Speaker 1: be what the BBC looks at when they're determining their recommendation.
Speaker 1: And that's why it's it's really important to realize that
Speaker 1: it's not just you know, we have a vaccine and
Speaker 1: we don't have a vaccine, but all of these individual
Speaker 1: questions add up to its strong vactine strategy. So in
Speaker 1: our first block, Dr Sharfstein, we talked about really some
Speaker 1: of the positive news surrounding the FISER developments today and
Speaker 1: the end to end a COVID nineteen vaccine On the
Speaker 1: flip side, because I feel like it's been a day
Speaker 1: of highs and lows. We're watching cases in the U
Speaker 1: s topping a hundred thousand for a fourth day, nation's
Speaker 1: total close to the ten million mark. I was talking
Speaker 1: to as I mentioned UM, the head of a pharmaceutical
Speaker 1: company saying, get ready for some pretty dark days come
Speaker 1: this winter here in the United States. How do you
Speaker 1: see the next few months playing out when it comes
Speaker 1: to COVID nineteen. Well, this is a really difficult time.
Speaker 1: And it's not just a number of cases. It's a
Speaker 1: number of hospitalizations. We have places in the country where
Speaker 1: there are no hospital beds for sick patients and they're
Speaker 1: having to build new hospital goals or airless patients out.
Speaker 1: Those regions could grow. Um, the healthcare system could really
Speaker 1: be pushed to the limit or pass it in different
Speaker 1: parts of the country, and then deaths are increasing. So
Speaker 1: this is a really difficult time. I think the vaccine announcement,
Speaker 1: if nothing else, tells us that we're not um stuck
Speaker 1: in this situation forever. We The more vigilant we can be,
Speaker 1: the more we can do now to fight against the virus.
Speaker 1: Those are lives that we're saving, because if we can
Speaker 1: get a safe and effective vaccine and be able to
Speaker 1: distribute it. Um, then we want as many people to
Speaker 1: make it to that point as possible. So hopefully it
Speaker 1: is a little bit of the you know, the inspiration
Speaker 1: for people to continue to wear masks, to continue to
Speaker 1: distance to protect themselves and others to not go to
Speaker 1: big indoor parties. And and and if if more people
Speaker 1: can realize like, look, all I gotta do is make
Speaker 1: it a few more months, um, you know, into one
Speaker 1: and maybe we can all put this behind us to
Speaker 1: a really robust vaccination efforts, then um, this would you know,
Speaker 1: will help people? I think through this time. I can't
Speaker 1: tell you how many times I have that conversation at home, um,
Speaker 1: with my daughter seventeen, and actually with family members who
Speaker 1: you know, when we even think about doing something together,
Speaker 1: it's like, I've come this far, why would I risk
Speaker 1: it at this point? Um? What is the difference about
Speaker 1: the cold though? Does it make it tougher? I mean,
Speaker 1: obviously it makes it tougher that we've got to be indoors, right,
Speaker 1: and if we're collecting indoors with other people, that it
Speaker 1: just increases our chances of potentially of getting COVID nineteen.
Speaker 1: But there's there also something just about um the virility
Speaker 1: of the virus of COVID nineteen during colder weather. I
Speaker 1: think nobody really knows that for sure, but probably there's
Speaker 1: something there. But the bigger issue is that people are
Speaker 1: together indoors, and we know now a lot about how
Speaker 1: the virus is transmitted, and you know, a lot of
Speaker 1: people indoors without wearing masks. It's like rolling out the
Speaker 1: red carpet for the virus. And you know that obviously
Speaker 1: the big problem with this virus is that it can
Speaker 1: it transmits when people don't know they're even sick. And
Speaker 1: so you know, you can think you're totally fine and
Speaker 1: lo and behold, you know you've gotten a lot of
Speaker 1: people infected. I mean, we're now on our third outbreak
Speaker 1: at the White House where they're testing you know, everybody
Speaker 1: all the time, and it's not helping because they weren't
Speaker 1: i think, taking you know, all the precautions in addition
Speaker 1: to doing the testing. So everybody's got to realize, like,
Speaker 1: not even a negative test should um make you feel competent. Um.
Speaker 1: I know that there's some parties where people say we'll
Speaker 1: just get tested and come to the party. That is
Speaker 1: not a excuse to not wear masks could be distanced
Speaker 1: because people can really get sick. You know, you mentioned
Speaker 1: the White House, you know, President elect Joe Biden announced
Speaker 1: a new thirteen member Coronavirus Task Force. We heard about it,
Speaker 1: um and earlier today and certainly over the weekend as well.
Speaker 1: That's January. And I do wonder what you're thinking about
Speaker 1: as you watch, because the federal government is so important
Speaker 1: in this process, and I know that there's without getting
Speaker 1: political concerns that we really haven't had um an or
Speaker 1: organized you know, unilateral strategy when it came to COVID nineteen.
Speaker 1: Um what needs to continue to happen until we get
Speaker 1: to the next administration and what does the new administration
Speaker 1: need to make sure that they do come January? Well,
Speaker 1: I think right now it's great that the president of
Speaker 1: active created a scientific group that's going to not only
Speaker 1: advise him but also helped educate the public about the
Speaker 1: critical things that can be done to reduce the spread
Speaker 1: of the virus in this difficult time. I'd like to
Speaker 1: see a lot of cooperation between the transition and the administration,
Speaker 1: you know, I think that's going to be very important.
Speaker 1: We're really in a battle against the virus, and we
Speaker 1: you know, I don't want to have a really abrupt,
Speaker 1: difficult transfer power in the middle of all that, because
Speaker 1: it'll just slow down what we can do to save lives.
Speaker 1: So I think that's gonna be important. You know, the
Speaker 1: Biden transition has a series of priorities that are on
Speaker 1: its website about the coronavirus, including making sure there's an
Speaker 1: uprotective equipment for people who are essential employees are in healthcare,
Speaker 1: making sure that there's a national testing strategy. Those are
Speaker 1: very good priorities, and I think, um, the you know,
Speaker 1: the important thing is going to be to be prepared
Speaker 1: to start executing those priorities as soon as they're able
Speaker 1: to take over. Yeah, it's certainly a full plate. Um.
Speaker 1: Dr Sharfstein, thank you so much. Really appreciate your time.
Speaker 1: Dr josh Sharfstein. He's VISTINE for Public Health Practice and
Speaker 1: Community Engagement, director of the Bloomberg American Health Initiative at
Speaker 1: Johns Hopkins University of course, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of
Speaker 1: Public Health, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg
Speaker 1: LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. This is Bloomberg Business Week with
Speaker 1: Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. So we are definitely starting
Speaker 1: to hear more about a Biden white house, the players involved,
Speaker 1: the people who may take some of the top spots
Speaker 1: of his administration in the meantime, What might Abiden white
Speaker 1: house be like and what economic policies might he pursue
Speaker 1: all bloom Burg business Week Economics editor Peter coy he
Speaker 1: writes about that, He writes about bonomics and returned to normalcy.
Speaker 1: Let's get into it with Peter. He joins us on
Speaker 1: the phone from New Jersey. Also with the s Bloomberg
Speaker 1: business Week editor Joel Webber, He's on the phone in Brooklyn.
Speaker 1: We're looking forward here, Joel, trying to um and and
Speaker 1: part of this was, like, you know, the one of
Speaker 1: the scenarios that we had to uh kind of plan
Speaker 1: for last week was you know, eventually and ended up
Speaker 1: coming on Saturday. You know, what, what what does this
Speaker 1: country look like under President elect Biden, and more specifically,
Speaker 1: what does it mean for business and the economy and
Speaker 1: and for that you know, Peter ko Um, you know,
Speaker 1: definitely raised his hand and said I think I know, uh,
Speaker 1: and we said, oh, please tell us. So, So, Peter,
Speaker 1: what's your what's your thesis for what Bidenomics means for America. Well,
Speaker 1: it comes out of what we know about Joe Biden,
Speaker 1: his long history in Congress and Senate, and his personality. Uh,
Speaker 1: and the circumstances the country is in right now. So
Speaker 1: you you step away from all those things and you
Speaker 1: come up with a fairly centrist person in a country
Speaker 1: that is divided. Um, he did win, but if there
Speaker 1: are a lot of people, the Republicans that are likely
Speaker 1: to control the Senate, there's a lot of people out
Speaker 1: there who voted for him who mainly were voting against Trump,
Speaker 1: and more for personality reasons than policy reasons. So he
Speaker 1: doesn't have like a strong mandate A and let me
Speaker 1: do it. Biden's way number one and number two. Um,
Speaker 1: number two is that even if he did want to
Speaker 1: advance a strong Democratic platform, Mitch McConnell is very likely
Speaker 1: to retain the position of cinema jarity leader won't let
Speaker 1: him the same way he blocked Obama's agenda when Biden
Speaker 1: was a VP. So I gotta say, Peter, love your story.
Speaker 1: As always, we always learned so much, but I do
Speaker 1: wonder so as to point out, you know, divided Congress
Speaker 1: and a Republican Senate with the Democrat in the White
Speaker 1: House could be good for the markets the corporate profits, right,
Speaker 1: but what does it mean for the economy and economic policies. Yeah, well,
Speaker 1: let's first start out with why the stock market seem
Speaker 1: to like it. Um, you might have thought that because
Speaker 1: the the chance of a strong stimulus fated a little bit,
Speaker 1: because the Republican Senate might have given a big if
Speaker 1: Trump had gotten reelected, might have voted for a big
Speaker 1: package just to bolster their man. Less likely to do
Speaker 1: so if it's a Biden white house. Uh. Similarly, there
Speaker 1: would have been a big package if Democrats had taken
Speaker 1: the Senate and Biden at once, and with divided government
Speaker 1: you get probably less stimulus. That's a short term thing.
Speaker 1: But it could be that what was happening the financial
Speaker 1: markets were looking ahead to the prospect of smaller tax
Speaker 1: increase than they would have had if the Democrats had
Speaker 1: taken the Senate, which seemed like a real possibility for
Speaker 1: a while there. Peter, can we also talk about taxes?
Speaker 1: What what do we expect from Biden on that front? Well, well,
Speaker 1: we can say what he said he wants to do,
Speaker 1: which is insulate people earning less than four hundred thousand
Speaker 1: dollars a year from any tax increase UH and raised
Speaker 1: the corporate income tax rate, which was cut under the
Speaker 1: Trump tax cut from thirty five. The right was on
Speaker 1: the world's highest. Well, there's a lot of loopholes in
Speaker 1: it that made it effectively lower in there, but still
Speaker 1: that headline rate was quite high at twenty one. It's
Speaker 1: it's right in the ballpark, maybe on the low side
Speaker 1: among the other rich industrialized nations. Biden is talking about
Speaker 1: putting back up at twenty eight UM, so splitting the
Speaker 1: difference between the old one and the new one. It's
Speaker 1: also talking, by the way, for people in the New
Speaker 1: York metro area who are listening to his program, lifting
Speaker 1: the cap on the assault on deductions to make it
Speaker 1: that would be a break for people. Can I just
Speaker 1: say having um embarrassed, but filing on extension, just getting
Speaker 1: it done. It'll be interesting to see if we have
Speaker 1: some changes and from one of those blue states where
Speaker 1: we were impacted certainly when it came to some of
Speaker 1: those local taxes. You know what's interesting is, you know,
Speaker 1: you say Trump did get a lot of things done,
Speaker 1: even if you didn't agree with how he did it.
Speaker 1: So what do we need to think about in terms
Speaker 1: of those things that he did get done well? Um.
Speaker 1: One of the things he did was he got um
Speaker 1: tougher on China and the absolutely a lot of tariffs.
Speaker 1: And there are a lot of Democrats who think it
Speaker 1: was time to get tough on China. The thoughts the
Speaker 1: Obama administration, which Biden worked for, of course did not
Speaker 1: do enough, but they don't necessarily agree with the way
Speaker 1: Trump went about it. Um. What what Trump did was
Speaker 1: trying to basically it alone. So he didn't just take
Speaker 1: on China, took on the world, and that alienated a
Speaker 1: lot of allies, the Japanese, the Europeans who could have
Speaker 1: been on America's side presenting a united front against China.
Speaker 1: And so one of the things Biden is almost certain
Speaker 1: to do is to uh you know, bolster America's role
Speaker 1: in the World Trade Organization, uh see about entering multilateral
Speaker 1: trade deals. He's not likely to roll back the tariffs
Speaker 1: on China um that Trump put on any time soon,
Speaker 1: because he would want to see you know, you want
Speaker 1: to get something for any anything you give back, and
Speaker 1: China is not likely to budget a lot either so
Speaker 1: don't don't expect the temperature to cool a whole lot
Speaker 1: between the US and China under a Biden administration, let
Speaker 1: alone the issue that the Democrats will push a lot
Speaker 1: harder on the human rights angle. So, Peter, you know,
Speaker 1: we might have you know, a less confrontational tone about
Speaker 1: many things traded among them, and we might see America
Speaker 1: renner the Paris climate of cor We might see you know,
Speaker 1: even even additional help for middle class Americans. Um, there's
Speaker 1: this other note that you read about, which is, you know,
Speaker 1: we could also just have like somewhat of a return
Speaker 1: to normal. Can you remind me what normal even looks like?
Speaker 1: In thirty seconds? So, Peter, long time, isn't it. I'm
Speaker 1: just saying that, Uh, you know that. But Trump was
Speaker 1: has been a chaos president. Even people who support him
Speaker 1: say that is it's not just coming. So is that? Uh?
Speaker 1: In some ways that's his m O and he thought
Speaker 1: it worked for him. Biden is not that kind of person.
Speaker 1: He's the middle of the road. He's a prison with gravitas.
Speaker 1: So I would expect some more calm coming in the
Speaker 1: next four years, a little a little namastay for everyone
Speaker 1: who's out there, I'm just going to put it out there,
Speaker 1: all right, Peter koy. Um, Like I said, we always
Speaker 1: learned something when we talk to you. Bloomberg Economics Editor
Speaker 1: Peter coy on the phone in New Jersey. Joe Webber,
Speaker 1: editor of Bloomberg Business Week, on the remote access from Brooklyn.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week with Kirol Messer on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: So four thousand people walk out at noon on January twenty,
Speaker 1: and not four thousand walking. I'll say several hundred walking
Speaker 1: because it takes time to process people. It's taking control
Speaker 1: of UM, you know, a hundred federal agencies, UM, National security,
Speaker 1: homeland security, UM. There's a lot of things that have
Speaker 1: to happen, and it has to happen seamlessly. Yeah. That
Speaker 1: was from our conversation Friday with Chris Leu, former Deputy
Speaker 1: Secretary of Labor under the Obama administration. He's now a
Speaker 1: senior fellow at the University of Virginia Miller Center. He
Speaker 1: was Chris was executive director of Barack Obama's two thousand
Speaker 1: eight transition teams. So he understands what it's like when
Speaker 1: there is the changing of the guard, and that really
Speaker 1: is our top story at this hour about a Biden
Speaker 1: white House, but also about the changing of the guard
Speaker 1: the White House is President Trump uh is expected to
Speaker 1: be gone come January, of course, and Joe Biden and
Speaker 1: his team go in in January. There's a lot going on,
Speaker 1: So let's bring in Bloomberg News Politics editor Wendy Benjaminson
Speaker 1: on the phone from Washington, d C. So, Wendy, we're
Speaker 1: going to talk about what a Biden white House looks like,
Speaker 1: because we know we're getting more and more on that.
Speaker 1: But man, what a Monday? What a weekend? What a weekend?
Speaker 1: Did you sleep at all? Um, a little bit last night,
Speaker 1: maybe for the first time and in the week but yeah, no,
Speaker 1: it's it was. It's all great. It's always exciting to,
Speaker 1: you know, be part of history. And that's one of
Speaker 1: the what happened over the weekend. Well, it does certainly
Speaker 1: feel like and today is an interesting one. I feel
Speaker 1: like we're talking a lot more about what a Biden
Speaker 1: white House looks like ultimately. But before we do that,
Speaker 1: we had some changes in the Trump administration. Mark Asper
Speaker 1: is out. Yes, it appears that um, the President, Donald
Speaker 1: Trump by tweet fired Asper, the Defense Secretary, and we
Speaker 1: placed him with someone who works at a different national
Speaker 1: security agency, Chris Miller, And UM, it's not we're not
Speaker 1: even sure that's possible. UM. But it's all very you know,
Speaker 1: reminiscent of UM of the last four years. I mean
Speaker 1: Asper Secretary. Asper did not go along and publicly did
Speaker 1: not go along with Trump's UM request for the invoking
Speaker 1: of the Insurrection Act, which would allow the US military
Speaker 1: to operate against Americans on American soil. UM. It's rarely used,
Speaker 1: I think the last time, I mean it came up
Speaker 1: during the Civil War obviously, UM, but the UM but
Speaker 1: he refused to go along with that and put out
Speaker 1: a statement saying so and I guess um the president
Speaker 1: was waiting until to see what the election was, but
Speaker 1: decided to fire him anyway. Does this happen a lot?
Speaker 1: I mean, after let's say there's an incumbent um loses
Speaker 1: his second term, or even someone in their second term.
Speaker 1: Did they and just to start to clean house and
Speaker 1: make changes at this point in the game. No, they people.
Speaker 1: That was not an easy setup. It was a really
Speaker 1: pure naive question, you know. But what's normal is that
Speaker 1: these people, you know, they see the writing on the wall.
Speaker 1: They're highly professional, highly thought after people. They know there's
Speaker 1: going to be a lot of competition, and they all
Speaker 1: start looking for jobs on their own. Um Traditionally, the
Speaker 1: White House does um it. The incoming administration ask for
Speaker 1: a lot of holdovers resignations, and then decides to rehire
Speaker 1: the ones that wants to rehire. That's usually when the
Speaker 1: same party takes over. But no, the president doesn't usually
Speaker 1: fire people that they know we're going to be out
Speaker 1: in seventy days anyway. Yeah, well, what do you think
Speaker 1: is going on? Or what do you here? I shouldn't
Speaker 1: say think what are you hearing in terms of what's
Speaker 1: going on in the Trump White House right now? We
Speaker 1: certainly are. We're all reading in over the weekend about
Speaker 1: kind of some tensions between people in terms of how
Speaker 1: they thought the president should should move forward from here,
Speaker 1: And I do I am curious about the outlying kind
Speaker 1: of legal questions concerning the counting of votes. Right so,
Speaker 1: that process continues, and this is a process that you know,
Speaker 1: Republicans say, and that a lot of people seem to
Speaker 1: agree that he has every right to ask for a recount,
Speaker 1: He has every right to make sure all the ballots
Speaker 1: are counted, but anyone who looks at the numbers objectively
Speaker 1: sees that there are not enough left outstanding ballots for
Speaker 1: him to make up the difference. He is down by
Speaker 1: at least five million votes right now across the country
Speaker 1: and in key states, even where it's closed, there are
Speaker 1: not enough votes outstanding to to change the outcome of
Speaker 1: the election. Um, and even Republican secretaries of State in
Speaker 1: the states are the people who run the elections in
Speaker 1: the states, are saying there is no or no evidence
Speaker 1: of widespread voting irregularities and nothing that would change the outcome.
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of people in the president's inner
Speaker 1: circle who are saying, you know, we're going to fight
Speaker 1: this out and we're going to file all these lawsuits.
Speaker 1: And Rudy Giuliani was its landscaping company in Philadelphia holding
Speaker 1: a news conference, and yet there are people in his
Speaker 1: inner circle saying, Okay, it's over, you lost, let's go. Yeah.
Speaker 1: It's kind of interesting. Yeah that landscaping company. UM, I
Speaker 1: think it was one of the most uh something that
Speaker 1: was getting an awful lot of buzz over on social media,
Speaker 1: certainly over the weekend and uh certainly today. Hey, so
Speaker 1: I do wonder what about those Senate races, so that
Speaker 1: we've got to wait a little bit longer, correct to
Speaker 1: get the outcome. Yes, Um, this happens in a lot
Speaker 1: of Southern states, particularly whether if someone doesn't get fifty
Speaker 1: percent of the vote at the top two finishers then
Speaker 1: go to a runoff. And um, in this case, we
Speaker 1: have to wait till January five. And the outcome of
Speaker 1: those does depend does I mean the the party control
Speaker 1: of the Senate does depend on the outcome of those races. So, UM,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of nervous people. There's probably a lot
Speaker 1: of money going down to Georgia. Um, there's going to
Speaker 1: be a big fight. But Georgia, even though it looks
Speaker 1: like Biden one Georgia, it's a pretty conservative state overall,
Speaker 1: and it really could be that, Um, that they will
Speaker 1: end up voting for Republican senators. But it's anybody's guess
Speaker 1: right now. So what does this all mean for? Right?
Speaker 1: So we've got we've got to wait to see who
Speaker 1: actually is in control of the Senate. Um. And I
Speaker 1: do wonder if you're getting any indications of how quickly
Speaker 1: some kind of stimulus measures, whether it's before January, do
Speaker 1: we have to wait till after January. What are we
Speaker 1: getting on that front? Because I feel like that's the
Speaker 1: second leg to the COVID nineteen news that we got
Speaker 1: today from Fiser that will kind of give some support
Speaker 1: and lift certainly to the economy. And just got about
Speaker 1: thirty seconds. Then we'll come back and do some more.
Speaker 1: Sure it's a very good point, um, anybody's guests. I mean,
Speaker 1: there are Democratic senators that are saying, Okay, we see
Speaker 1: the direction of the country's going, let's let's get a stimulus.
Speaker 1: Though Ms McConnell is having an availability today, we'll see
Speaker 1: what he says. But I'm my guess is the mood
Speaker 1: isn't there among Republicans? All right, Wendy, I knew you guys,
Speaker 1: you have all been over all on it in terms
Speaker 1: of looking what Biden White House looks like. So let's
Speaker 1: go through some of the names. I mean, is it
Speaker 1: gonna be kind of like Obama two point oh? In
Speaker 1: some ways it is. There will be very familiar faces. Um,
Speaker 1: there will be familiar names. Um, it won't be a
Speaker 1: complete uh you know retread. He's taking a lot of
Speaker 1: different people, and he's thinking people who had slightly you know,
Speaker 1: who were maybe under secretaries in the Obama administration who
Speaker 1: will now rise to the front of it. He has
Speaker 1: also committed were not committed. But he is also we think,
Speaker 1: planning to make history with some of his cabinet choices,
Speaker 1: putting women in at Defense and Treasury, to cabinet agencies
Speaker 1: that have yet to seen see a woman at the top.
Speaker 1: Can I just say, reading this story over the weekend,
Speaker 1: I was like blown away and like, wait, a woman,
Speaker 1: A woman, a woman like you know, is that Joe Biden?
Speaker 1: Is that his team, is that Kamala Harris or a
Speaker 1: little bit of all of it, A little bit of
Speaker 1: all of it, but I think it's I think a
Speaker 1: lot of it is Joe Biden. But one thing to
Speaker 1: keep in mind is that the names floating around for
Speaker 1: chiefs of staff, for the people who will be closest
Speaker 1: to Biden in the White House, just like under Obama,
Speaker 1: are going to be uh, you know, largely white men
Speaker 1: from what we can tell. So there will be the
Speaker 1: counselors to the President, of domestic policy, chief the chief
Speaker 1: of staff, those sort of jobs that um, you know,
Speaker 1: these are just people who are talented and experienced and
Speaker 1: um uh and in their jobs and they happen to
Speaker 1: be white men. But then um, but you don't need
Speaker 1: to make but very they don't become household names either.
Speaker 1: But you know, a Defense Secretary Michelle Flornoy is at
Speaker 1: the top of the list for that, or Treasury Secretary
Speaker 1: Leo Brandard. That's a big splashy thing. Those are very
Speaker 1: high profile people who will become household names and their women. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's really really distinct, and um doesn't it really feels
Speaker 1: like if you think about in many ways, Wendy, the
Speaker 1: year that we've had, right and just dealing with the
Speaker 1: dual pandemic of course the virus, but also of we
Speaker 1: talked so much about systemic racism and the inequities and
Speaker 1: the qualities when we look around, you know, much of
Speaker 1: corporate America and really still in the political world. So
Speaker 1: it looks like, you know, this could be a very
Speaker 1: big step forward. I don't know, am I over saying
Speaker 1: it or is that what it is? Potentially? Um? I
Speaker 1: think it could be. I mean, these are white women, um,
Speaker 1: and in some of these jobs, although Tomala Harris is
Speaker 1: the vice president and that's big history making. But I
Speaker 1: do think it does address some of the inequities that
Speaker 1: the women have seen where there they are Simian, I mean,
Speaker 1: a woman of defense has been hard to do because
Speaker 1: it's always been traditional that the person would have military experience,
Speaker 1: and there just haven't been a lot of women who
Speaker 1: have risen up in the in the military yet. Um.
Speaker 1: But the but Michelle Flournoy was was the highest ranking
Speaker 1: woman in the Pentagon during the Obama administration, and I
Speaker 1: think she ran either the budget or procurement or something
Speaker 1: where Um, I'm sorry, I don't have that at my fingertips,
Speaker 1: but she she's um, perfectly qualitified for this job. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean in the military, what does it tell? Does
Speaker 1: it give us an idea of what kind of administration?
Speaker 1: What kind of policies might you know, and what kind
Speaker 1: of actions we might see from the get go? Once
Speaker 1: Biden his team step into the White House, well, I
Speaker 1: think a lot of it is going to depend on
Speaker 1: Senate control. Biden is going to, um, first name the
Speaker 1: White House jobs that the people that actually work in
Speaker 1: the White House, his top aids, Um, those don't need
Speaker 1: Senate confirmation. Those are at the UH, they serve at
Speaker 1: the pleasure of the president and the president only. So
Speaker 1: I think he's going to probably try to start with
Speaker 1: those jobs first, um, and then partly because he wants
Speaker 1: to be careful and take his time, and partly because
Speaker 1: we don't know what the Senate confirmation process will be like.
Speaker 1: I think then he's going to between Thanksgiving and Christmas
Speaker 1: begin to roll out some names of cabinet members. And
Speaker 1: I think if there, if it looks like there's going
Speaker 1: to be democratic control of the Senate, he might go
Speaker 1: a little further left than he would if he had
Speaker 1: to face Manch if he if this person had have
Speaker 1: to get through Mitch McConnell, and you know, they may
Speaker 1: be more moderate. What's the role of Kamala Harris, his
Speaker 1: vice president elect, in helping shape this team. Well, he
Speaker 1: has said that she will have the same privilege that
Speaker 1: he had under President Obama, which is that she will
Speaker 1: be the last person in the room giving advice. And
Speaker 1: if if he is true to that promise to her,
Speaker 1: then by seeing no reason why he wouldn't be, there's um,
Speaker 1: then she should have a pretty big say in things. Hey,
Speaker 1: one last question, and I always love kind of what's
Speaker 1: going on behind closed doors at this point President LEC. Biden.
Speaker 1: Is he getting all the briefings or the key ones
Speaker 1: when it comes to security, when it comes to the virus,
Speaker 1: as does Donald Trump, the president, Well, he is getting
Speaker 1: his own virus briefings from the Coronavirus Task Force that
Speaker 1: he named today. Many of these people were already advising
Speaker 1: him on the campaign. He named thirteen more today and
Speaker 1: they are going to turn his campaign promises on the
Speaker 1: virus into policy. Um. In terms of security briefings, He's
Speaker 1: and getting those ever since he was the nominee. Okay,
Speaker 1: all right, that's how it works, hey, good stuff is always.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Wendy. We know your you guys
Speaker 1: are busy in the whole team in d C. So
Speaker 1: thank you so much for carving out some time for
Speaker 1: a Bloomberg News Politics editor Wendy Benjaminson. Go check out
Speaker 1: all of the DC coverage. You can find it at
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com. Wendy, of course, joining us from the
Speaker 1: nation's capital, brooom turn on. Yeh, but you let me
Speaker 1: drive home, honey, please, I'll do the right drivel. I
Speaker 1: want to drive. Just drive baby, good question trying. This
Speaker 1: is the drive to the globe. Give me thanks. We'll
Speaker 1: drive up dawn on Bloomberg Radio. It is time for
Speaker 1: the drive to the clothes on this Monday, I'll be
Speaker 1: Dish Bonde is back with us, founder and chief investment
Speaker 1: officer at Centerstone Investors, joining us on the phone in Connecticut.
Speaker 1: It's so nice to have you here with us. Um.
Speaker 1: I was trying to remember, was that the last time
Speaker 1: we talked with you was in March? Hey, Carol good
Speaker 1: be here. Yeah. I think you and I spoke last
Speaker 1: in March. I've been on the show a couple of
Speaker 1: times since then. Um, maybe I have no you weren't there,
Speaker 1: So how so how are you and what's kind of
Speaker 1: changed in terms of the market environment? Big week last
Speaker 1: week in terms of the election. We're still waiting the
Speaker 1: outcome of who is in control of the Senate. But
Speaker 1: how do you look at this market environment? We've seen
Speaker 1: a little bit of a rotation today. Uh yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean I'm just looking at our Centerstone funds right now.
Speaker 1: We have stopped up a day, you know, But then
Speaker 1: I do remember acutely days in March when some of
Speaker 1: these same stocks are down. So the news have been
Speaker 1: kind of extreme. Um, it's I think the environment is
Speaker 1: for us, It's it's um, you know, it's this is
Speaker 1: a kind of environment that value stocks should do well
Speaker 1: in where especially international we focused on mostly non US
Speaker 1: and UM, there's that we you know, we are so
Speaker 1: many tail winds now that we did not have. UM
Speaker 1: And ironically enough the COVID, the front those fiscal response
Speaker 1: globally to COVID has been a great has a great
Speaker 1: deal to play in that, or has not a great
Speaker 1: deal of playing that. So for US, UM, I think
Speaker 1: we're doing We're sitting in a sort of the sweet spot. UM.
Speaker 1: That said, you know, we were not I mean for
Speaker 1: most of the year or maybe even like the last
Speaker 1: or three years. It's just recently that things have started
Speaker 1: to turn our favor. So what does that mean in
Speaker 1: terms of strategy? Do you kind of hold I mean
Speaker 1: one month I'm looking at the one month performance and
Speaker 1: you guys are in I think the nineties six percent
Speaker 1: out at least according to Bloomberg data. Um, So what
Speaker 1: does it mean in terms of strategy? Do you double down?
Speaker 1: Do you sit tight? And you think? Because you know,
Speaker 1: it's interesting when you talk about the value trade, I
Speaker 1: feel like everybody keep saying, Okay, now it's it's the time,
Speaker 1: it's the time. But as I heard David Weston sand
Speaker 1: Bloomberg radio earlier. You know, if I had you know,
Speaker 1: a nickel for every time somebody said okay, now it's
Speaker 1: the time for value value names, i'd be pretty wealthy.
Speaker 1: But it doesn't happen. So you know, what do you
Speaker 1: think will be the lasting trade here? Or is it
Speaker 1: going to be tough to tell until we get the
Speaker 1: new administration kind of settled and we get a better
Speaker 1: feel of what new policies might come down. Um? Well
Speaker 1: that I mean, you kind of nailed it, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: how long have value people have been saying, oh, you know,
Speaker 1: it's been this many years? Sorry, value people, you know,
Speaker 1: and I saw it really interesting, Uh, some interesting figures
Speaker 1: out the day It said that from the trailing one
Speaker 1: day to one week to one year going out thirty
Speaker 1: three years, growth has outperformed values. So that's I don't
Speaker 1: there are a lot of things that sort of point
Speaker 1: to an extreme. Um, but that's that's what these moments
Speaker 1: are made of. I you know, I just kind of separate, like, yeah,
Speaker 1: we're value investors, but you know, I really consider ourselves
Speaker 1: more like common sense investors and that seems to come
Speaker 1: and go out of fashion. But um, when you're basing
Speaker 1: it on, you know, intrinsic value of an actual business
Speaker 1: rather than like what some opinion is of something. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, we sound more often than not that over
Speaker 1: time we you know, we end up doing just fine.
Speaker 1: It's that time element that really is unpredictable, that it
Speaker 1: could be a year, five years, you just never know.
Speaker 1: And this this one's been a long time. So I
Speaker 1: think it's what what will transpire for us UM at
Speaker 1: Center Stone will be more more related to how the
Speaker 1: businesses perform rather than what some other policy or who's
Speaker 1: in the Senate or whatever. We kind of like, look
Speaker 1: past all that stuff. Are you still all in on gold? Yeah?
Speaker 1: We do on some gold that I see today is
Speaker 1: taking a big hit. Um, the fundamental kind of case
Speaker 1: or goal still remains. So I mean you, I'm pretty
Speaker 1: sure the Sun has said like seventeen times now that
Speaker 1: they're not going to raise interest rates until unemployments the
Speaker 1: unemployment rates back down to where it was, particularly for
Speaker 1: the minority class, and that's going to take some time.
Speaker 1: So you can you can have a period of time
Speaker 1: where we have inflation popping up, which is going to
Speaker 1: do soon with low rates and low negative or sorry
Speaker 1: negative interest rates, or they tend to be good for
Speaker 1: the for gold and not so great for the dollars.
Speaker 1: So in our funds were UM, then this may be
Speaker 1: kind of a popular thing to say these days. So
Speaker 1: we're we're you know, exposed to foreign equities, were foreign
Speaker 1: exposed to foreign currencies. And we do have some golden
Speaker 1: place just in case, UM that has been with me
Speaker 1: in this fund or where you know, other funds that
Speaker 1: I've managed for a couple of decades. Now. It's not
Speaker 1: not a new thing, so UM the case where it
Speaker 1: remains the same as it was twenty years ago. UM.
Speaker 1: And and but you know it will face it. It
Speaker 1: has its own cycle, so it'll go up and down.
Speaker 1: And hey, before we go, you know, how should we
Speaker 1: as investors kind of think about the international play? I
Speaker 1: am curious. You know, we highlighted before some of the
Speaker 1: world leaders that are coming out and congratulating a Biden
Speaker 1: Harris administration. Um, there's some that we pointed out that
Speaker 1: have been pretty quiet, including the leader of China. So
Speaker 1: I do wonder how do we as UM investors kind
Speaker 1: of think about the international investment play, the global you know,
Speaker 1: investment play as a result of a new administration, especially
Speaker 1: since you do invest overseas some thoughts there, Yeah, I mean,
Speaker 1: thankfully right now, I don't. It really comes down to
Speaker 1: just behavior and of these economies which are all turning
Speaker 1: around UM, and you know, fiscal policies which have become
Speaker 1: very very positive or at least procyclical now in Europe
Speaker 1: especially UM. And valuations from a period starting the starting point.
Speaker 1: You know, the valuations receives are or you know not
Speaker 1: a not an immaterial discount to what you have in
Speaker 1: the United States because of this blow up in the
Speaker 1: type industry here. So the valuation cases there, You've got
Speaker 1: the fiscal head, fiscal tail winds, got monetary policy in place, UM,
Speaker 1: you know pro you know, pro investor management teams UM
Speaker 1: in markets that have just been depressed for going on
Speaker 1: three years now. So I think personally that there is
Speaker 1: this part is the opinion part of me, not the
Speaker 1: fact part of me. Opinion partly says that we're due
Speaker 1: for a long, long period of our performance now with
Speaker 1: many things in our back. All right, Well, time will
Speaker 1: certainly tell. I'll be good to check in with you.
Speaker 1: I'll be Dish Bonde, founder and chief investment Officer at
Speaker 1: Centerstone Investors, based in New York. But he was joining
Speaker 1: us on the phone in Connecticut on this Monday. Thanks
Speaker 1: so much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the
Speaker 1: podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or at Bloomberg dot com, and
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