Speaker 1: I miss the green. For example, I'm already upset. When
Speaker 1: I find my ball in the bunker, I'm really upset.
Speaker 1: And when I find my ball in a frid Egg,
Speaker 1: Friday Egg, the dreaded Friday Egg, Frida Egg, Frida Egg,
Speaker 1: Frida egg bride egg Lie, I'm about ready to run
Speaker 1: off of the course.
Speaker 2: Ladies and gentlemen, Welcome back to another edition of the
Speaker 2: Friday Egg Podcast. Today, I'm joined by Polly, the legendary
Speaker 2: picks man. Welcome on, Hey, Andy, how's it going? Hanging
Speaker 2: in there? Figures the week I go to l a
Speaker 2: at rains here, So short day, but uh gave me
Speaker 2: more time to get ready to talk about the PGA tour.
Speaker 1: Well, you're missing the heat wave back in Chicago. I
Speaker 1: think it might have actually hit thirty today.
Speaker 2: So it's about a tough winner.
Speaker 1: That's about forty degrees normal, higher than them we've had
Speaker 1: for normal.
Speaker 2: Yeah, why did to talk a little tour golf? PGA
Speaker 2: tour kicked off. What'd you think of last week's event?
Speaker 1: I mean, DJ just absolutely dominated. I mean he literally
Speaker 1: just was able to hit his driver wherever he wanted
Speaker 1: on that course, and it just gave him such an
Speaker 1: immense advantage that there was hardly anybody in the field
Speaker 1: that could have competed with him at that level. And
Speaker 1: we've seen that in the past where Jordan has won
Speaker 1: a capaloo as well, or justin Thomas to where when
Speaker 1: those guys are on their game, there's not many other
Speaker 1: players in the field that can even come close to
Speaker 1: competing with them. As we can see, John Rahm played
Speaker 1: great the whole week and still was not even in
Speaker 1: the same ballpark as DJ.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's something that gets a little blown
Speaker 2: out of proportion when one of these guys wins by
Speaker 2: like seven or eight, and you know there's only a
Speaker 2: handful of guys that can do it. John Rahm did
Speaker 2: it actually in Ireland last year at that Rollox event.
Speaker 2: But it's you know, people make these knee jerk reactions
Speaker 2: when they see Dustin Johnson one by eight. But you know,
Speaker 2: when DJ plays as good as he can play, he's
Speaker 2: probably gonna win by a handful of shots.
Speaker 1: Agree with that.
Speaker 2: It's a long season, and it's uh, we've only seen
Speaker 2: one golfer in the in my lifetime, in your lifetime
Speaker 2: that can really sustain the dominant level play for a
Speaker 2: long time. It will be very interesting to see dj
Speaker 2: uh this year, though. I kind of feel like he
Speaker 2: could be on for a big year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely agree with that. He kind of has
Speaker 1: a little bit of a chip on his shoulder after
Speaker 1: the way he played last year and then getting hurt
Speaker 1: before August to where he could have went out an
Speaker 1: absolute tear head. He possibly stayed healthy at that point,
Speaker 1: So it'd be interesting if he can do that this year.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I think he. I think he will. But
Speaker 2: you know, at this point, he's got so many wins.
Speaker 2: I wrote this in the newsletter, but it's more about
Speaker 2: adding majors because he's I mean, he's right on the
Speaker 2: borderline of a Hall of Fame career already.
Speaker 1: Yeah, hear that. And the fact is that he still
Speaker 1: has a lot of years of prime golf ahead of
Speaker 1: him too. It's not like he's, you know, in his
Speaker 1: forties in doing this, right, He's literally in the peak
Speaker 1: right now.
Speaker 2: So did anybody else impress you last week?
Speaker 1: There were there were a few guys. I mean, I
Speaker 1: saw Mark Leishman again just continues to continue his strong
Speaker 1: play from the fall, and once again he's another good
Speaker 1: guy that's playing in the wins. So it'll be interesting
Speaker 1: to see if he's able to carry that over to
Speaker 1: you know, a track this week where he's you know,
Speaker 1: had some decent success, but wondering if you could maybe
Speaker 1: take that, you know, the next leap to where he
Speaker 1: starts winning you know, two three times a year on tour.
Speaker 1: I mean, because I think he won twice last year.
Speaker 1: Can he continue the trend this year? Yeah?
Speaker 2: I mean finishing seventh with a third round seventy six,
Speaker 2: it's pretty impressive. And uh, I think you know, Leishman's
Speaker 2: got the whole package game. You know, T Degreen, he's
Speaker 2: really solid, he was long, he's got great iron player
Speaker 2: and you know, when that putter gets going, he's tough
Speaker 2: to beat. What about my boy?
Speaker 1: See wu Seawoo. The interesting thing is Seawou actually played
Speaker 1: that well last week and he didn't putt great. So
Speaker 1: so the scary thing is that if he actually putted
Speaker 1: last week well, he would have he would have had
Speaker 1: a lot higher finish. I think he ended up losing
Speaker 1: I think about two and a half shots Strokes Stane
Speaker 1: putting last week, so he very easily could have been,
Speaker 1: you know, top five had he putted just a little
Speaker 1: bit better.
Speaker 2: There Sea Wou's gonna have a big year this year,
Speaker 2: he im. I'm convinced. I everybody likes to rag on
Speaker 2: him for last year he won the Players, but he
Speaker 2: was injured all year, Like, how can you you know,
Speaker 2: I got in a little tiff with a with a
Speaker 2: guy on Twitter about this, but like, how can you
Speaker 2: analyze somebody's stats when he's when he's in injured all year?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I agree with that. And then the best thing
Speaker 1: is that I see what was one of my favorite guys
Speaker 1: in terms of, like on a betting perspective, because he
Speaker 1: has such bad finishes that based probably almost like recency biaster,
Speaker 1: that his odds ended up being so bad like last
Speaker 1: year he was five hundred and one to win the
Speaker 1: Players that would or even even even like last week,
Speaker 1: I think he was fifty or sixty one. I think
Speaker 1: he's seventy or eighty to one to win this week
Speaker 1: he finished. And in reality, he's won twice on tour ready,
Speaker 1: so he's gonna win more often than than one out
Speaker 1: of seventy or one out of eighty times.
Speaker 2: I think he had a third or fourth place finish
Speaker 2: at Sony in twenty sixteen. His rookie year brought him
Speaker 2: up for a reason. I think this is a good,
Speaker 2: good track for him. I think he's just going to
Speaker 2: have a good year In terms of twenty eighteen, I mean,
Speaker 2: I mean, we're at the this is the first full
Speaker 2: full field event of the year. What are you kind
Speaker 2: of looking forward to.
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to seeing how some of these some
Speaker 1: of the rookies that played in the Fall series in
Speaker 1: some of the smaller events, how they kind of handle
Speaker 1: the pressure of the mainstream PGA tour out to where
Speaker 1: they're you know, they're being able to play a couple
Speaker 1: events in a row here and the pressures of having
Speaker 1: to perform well before the next reshuffle. So you give
Speaker 1: some guys like Austin Cook who already obviously won on
Speaker 1: tour in the fall, and they don't have to worry
Speaker 1: about that. But there's a lot of guys in the
Speaker 1: middle of the pack there, or rookies who these next
Speaker 1: three or four events are very crucial to whether they're
Speaker 1: able to retain their card for the year. Yeah.
Speaker 2: I always love watching rookies at this time of the year.
Speaker 2: It's an underrated storyline in terms of what gets coverage,
Speaker 2: But this is kind of a make or break time
Speaker 2: for rookies if they if they perform well, they're going
Speaker 2: to be set for the rest of the year. And
Speaker 2: I'd be interested to see like a statistical analysis. I
Speaker 2: think Jake Nichols did one at one point where he
Speaker 2: talked at you know, like early season performance and how
Speaker 2: I mean the correlation to keeping their card is like
Speaker 2: so through the roof. But I highlighted a couple guys
Speaker 2: that I'm watching in particular like these early events. Obviously,
Speaker 2: like Peter u Lines, the big the big name that
Speaker 2: everybody knows, former number one ranked player in the world
Speaker 2: as an amateur European Tour winner, played on the European
Speaker 2: Tour since he graduated, so about six years. But then
Speaker 2: really young kid Aaron Wise, who I believe is only
Speaker 2: twenty one NCAA champion from Oregon. I'm really I mean,
Speaker 2: as far as talent goes, he's he's got to be
Speaker 2: one of the ten most talented player young players in
Speaker 2: the game. And then another guy that I'm looking at
Speaker 2: is Sam Ryder, who was known kind of on the
Speaker 2: web tour as the best player t de Green out there.
Speaker 2: So Sam Ryder's one that I don't think he played
Speaker 2: that great in the in the fall, but I expect
Speaker 2: him to play really well in these next couple events.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I could definitely see Ryder playing good this week
Speaker 1: just because his game suits up perfect the for the
Speaker 1: golf course, because he's be able to keep it in
Speaker 1: playoff the tee and be able to hit the small
Speaker 1: greens out here just no matter whether he can make
Speaker 1: putts for the week.
Speaker 2: So from a statistical standpoint, what kind of stats do
Speaker 2: you look at for this week, Sony.
Speaker 1: So in terms of looking at the Sony, I'm looking
Speaker 1: for guys that are able to really control their iron
Speaker 1: shots because you're gonna have a lot of approaches coming
Speaker 1: into the greens from that one to twenty five to
Speaker 1: one seventy five range, and traditionally you haven't seen distance
Speaker 1: off the tea being a huge factor for success here. Obviously,
Speaker 1: there's outliers to that, like Justin Thomas last year, who
Speaker 1: decided hit driver everywhere and he pretty much headed on
Speaker 1: a string, so he made it into like a pitching
Speaker 1: put golf course. But if you look back at the
Speaker 1: winners of his golf course, you have guys like in
Speaker 1: twenty sixty at Fabian Gomez you've had Johnson, Wagner, Mark Wilson,
Speaker 1: Zach Johnson, kJ Toroy, Paul Goidos, David Thoms. Those aren't
Speaker 1: necessarily your bomber. They're more of your tacticians, the guys
Speaker 1: that will place it in the right, in the right
Speaker 1: portion of the fairway, attack their correct portion of the green,
Speaker 1: leave in the correct spot and the greens there. If
Speaker 1: you're in the correct spot, you can make a lot
Speaker 1: of putts on those greens because they're rolling pretty true.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a kind of a rainer and the course
Speaker 2: isn't it. So the course is a Seth Rainer design,
Speaker 2: But I mean not all of it's really intact because
Speaker 2: it's been, you know, messed with over the years. They
Speaker 2: sold some of the land to the hotel, the Kahala Hotel,
Speaker 2: and it was a drastic rerouting. But one of the
Speaker 2: things with Seth Rayner greens is if you're in the
Speaker 2: right area, you've got really makeable putts and they're pretty straight.
Speaker 2: So it's a place that definitely rewards precise iron play.
Speaker 2: In terms of the golf course, I mean, I really
Speaker 2: like this golf course. Justin Thomas was really the first
Speaker 2: one to expose it. In the sense of cutting corners
Speaker 2: the way he did. I talked with Dope ahead of
Speaker 2: the last podcast with Tom dok that went up on
Speaker 2: Monday was all about this. He's the consulting architect here.
Speaker 2: He talked about how Thomas those lines he took were
Speaker 2: so aggressive and if he wasn't on just right, you know,
Speaker 2: all of a sudden, he's in a lot of a
Speaker 2: lot of tough spots. So it'll it'll be interesting to
Speaker 2: see if if Thomas employs the same strategy this week.
Speaker 2: I mean, he's not coming in with the same form
Speaker 2: as he had last year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I think I think it's just his aggressive
Speaker 1: nature to where he's gonna play. I think the same
Speaker 1: way he did last year in terms of just pulling driver,
Speaker 1: because that's just the way that he kind of goes
Speaker 1: ahead and plays because he knows if he happens to
Speaker 1: have a good week driving, it's going to be difficult
Speaker 1: for others to content with him. He could do something
Speaker 1: like it did last year. And you know, even if
Speaker 1: he doesn't drive it as great as that, maybe just
Speaker 1: a little bit worse, he can still potentially win this
Speaker 1: just because of his driver.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, definitely, I mean that was a record setting
Speaker 2: performance last year, so if he's a eight percent of
Speaker 2: what he was last year, will probably win. Getting into
Speaker 2: kind of players for this week and what you're looking at,
Speaker 2: let's let's first go into the one and done and
Speaker 2: you know, everybody's season is kicking off, so people are
Speaker 2: looking to get off to a good start. I know
Speaker 2: I am. I haven't been doing very well in fantasy
Speaker 2: golf lately.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think there's a couple of good
Speaker 1: options this week. I wouldn't necessarily want us to go
Speaker 1: the route of taking one of the top guns in
Speaker 1: terms of like Speather Thomas this week, but I think
Speaker 1: one of the guys that I'm gonna be looking at
Speaker 1: for my league is gonna be Brian Harmon this week.
Speaker 1: He's coming in after playing very well last week. He
Speaker 1: has good course history, you know, finishing top twenty the
Speaker 1: last three years here. And if you think of the
Speaker 1: guys that have won here in the past, me as
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, Gomez, Wagner, Wilson, Tom's Gouidos, they're kind of
Speaker 1: fit the Harmon mold, meaning he's gonna keep it in
Speaker 1: playoff the tea. He's going to be very good at
Speaker 1: his Iron game, and he's a pretty good putter, so
Speaker 1: I would not be app I see Brian Harmon come
Speaker 1: out on top this week.
Speaker 2: Yeah really, I put as a guy a player that
Speaker 2: kind of popped out at me. I put Harmon down.
Speaker 2: I think. I think he's the guy. He's a guy
Speaker 2: that's just going to continue to ascend. He's last year,
Speaker 2: he had a breakout year, but I expect him to
Speaker 2: be around for the next decade as one of the
Speaker 2: PGA tours, you know, not superstars, but that that second
Speaker 2: tier player that is consistently in the hunt at a
Speaker 2: lot of events, your weekend week out.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't know if it's necessarly the best comparison,
Speaker 1: but to me, he kind of seems like this generation's
Speaker 1: potential to be like a Jim Furrick, meaning he's always
Speaker 1: going to be there, he's going to be very consistent,
Speaker 1: and he's going to be a perfect guy to be
Speaker 1: in combination for like Ryder Cups to part with some
Speaker 1: of some of the bombers.
Speaker 2: I think so he reminds me a lot of Kevin
Speaker 2: Kiszner in a way where these guys they don't have
Speaker 2: like a standout skill like that pops like that is dominant,
Speaker 2: and those guys it seems like it takes longer for
Speaker 2: them to really establish themselves on tour. Like Kisner obviously
Speaker 2: had a great year last year, but he's in that
Speaker 2: same boat where I like him a lot this week
Speaker 2: as well. I think this is a really good golf
Speaker 2: course for him. I think it's pretty comparable to Colonial
Speaker 2: because it's got these dog legs and you got to
Speaker 2: play the position and then you've got these you know,
Speaker 2: wedges to mid to low irons in and Colonial is
Speaker 2: a spot that Kissner won last year at. So Kisner
Speaker 2: is another guy that I like.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I've seen a lot of correlation with Colonial
Speaker 1: as well. So if you look at example, like Zach Johnson,
Speaker 1: I believe played good Colonial as well, and you look here,
Speaker 1: he's had top tens three of the last four years
Speaker 1: and anyone back here in two thousand and nine as well.
Speaker 1: So it's another guy, you know that fits the mold
Speaker 1: of being a tactician in terms of placing it in
Speaker 1: this area so you can have the best angle in
Speaker 1: and attacking from there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's funny.
Speaker 1: He uh.
Speaker 2: We did a little exercise. We never ended up doing
Speaker 2: anything with it. Last year. But this was one of
Speaker 2: the courses I sent to you as kind of an
Speaker 2: architecturally significant golf course, and Kisner was a guy that
Speaker 2: just popped, you know when when the architecture is good.
Speaker 2: Kissner is a top ten player in the world.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, and in another course that might be
Speaker 1: a little similar to this, might be it might be
Speaker 1: Harbor Town as well, in terms of having to place
Speaker 1: it and with a little bit of the smaller greens
Speaker 1: and being able to have consistency with the with the
Speaker 1: iron game, you know, one twenty five there.
Speaker 2: So another guy I put down on my list is
Speaker 2: Shay Revey Chez Revey.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he had a really good, really good fall there.
Speaker 1: I think he had five consecutive top twenty fives in
Speaker 1: the fall and then he finished eighth here last year.
Speaker 1: So it'll be interesting to see, if you know, if
Speaker 1: he's able to continue that trend going forward and possibly
Speaker 1: rack up another another top ten year.
Speaker 2: Uh So, do you have any other guys that you're
Speaker 2: really kind of got highlighted for one and done?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'm not necessarily if I'm gonna use
Speaker 1: them this week. I think there may be a few
Speaker 1: other times that they use him on the West Coast.
Speaker 1: But Charles Holl's record here is really hard to pass up.
Speaker 1: So I think in the last eleven times he's been here,
Speaker 1: he's had seven top eight finishes, which kind of goes
Speaker 1: a little bit under the Raider because when you think
Speaker 1: of the Sony Open, you don't necessarily think of Charles
Speaker 1: Holl being in contention that much. But it's really hard
Speaker 1: to pass up the ability for a guy that may
Speaker 1: not actually win this week, but he's probably gonna give you
Speaker 1: a top twenty finish.
Speaker 2: It's kind of a synonymous with his career where he
Speaker 2: doesn't really win, he castes a lot of big checks. Yeah,
Speaker 2: anyone else.
Speaker 1: That's probably about it. I mean, the one other guy
Speaker 1: you may want to go, if you want to go
Speaker 1: a little bit of a flyer, maybe a guy like
Speaker 1: JJ Spawn.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he played He played her.
Speaker 1: Last year and missed the cop but it seemed like
Speaker 1: in the Fall, the Fall series he really started to
Speaker 1: find his game. Almost won his last start in the
Speaker 1: Fall series, And it's another guy that kind of fits
Speaker 1: that mold of keeping it in play and being a
Speaker 1: good iron player there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've been I'm one of the forefront. JJ Spawn fans,
Speaker 2: and I would say this golf course should fit him
Speaker 2: really well. He's stellar from tee to green. He's not
Speaker 2: overly long, but he's just really consistent. And the other
Speaker 2: thing is he's a West Coast guy, so I think
Speaker 2: that helps out here. He's got it. He hits the
Speaker 2: ball really well, so if the wind picks up, which
Speaker 2: is obviously always a big factors. I mean, the golf
Speaker 2: course is right on the ocean. If the wind picked up,
Speaker 2: he's a good fit. And he almost won his last
Speaker 2: start the start before. He was in contention late and
Speaker 2: I think he finished like double triple or something to
Speaker 2: drop to like fifteen. So you know, he almost won twice.
Speaker 2: And that's something I always look at when I'm trying
Speaker 2: to look at breakout players the next year, is who
Speaker 2: are guys that really got in the hunt a lot
Speaker 2: and were in contention a few times but didn't get
Speaker 2: the job done. And those guys I always think are
Speaker 2: the guys that are gonna break out next year. And
Speaker 2: I could see JJ Spahn not going to win this
Speaker 2: year and having a really good year similar to like
Speaker 2: an Adam had one year last year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I could definitely see that. I honestly wouldn't be
Speaker 1: surprised that he picks up a victory by the time
Speaker 1: the West Coast swing is over, because there's a lot
Speaker 1: of courses there that are gonna fit him well.
Speaker 2: So let's dive into DraftKings here and get get kind
Speaker 2: of we'll go through a couple you know who you
Speaker 2: like from the high price tiers, and then you know
Speaker 2: who you like to fill out your roster with the
Speaker 2: salaries for this week, You've obviously got Jordan Speeth, Justin
Speaker 2: Thomas are clear in a way the top two guys,
Speaker 2: and then you know, Mark Leishman, Brian Harmon, and Kissner
Speaker 2: are all above ten thousand dollars, so those are kind
Speaker 2: of the clear top echelon guys. Are you going with
Speaker 2: a strategy of taking one of those top two guys?
Speaker 1: Yeah. So if I'm looking at like a tournament structure,
Speaker 1: a lot of times I'll first look to see, you know,
Speaker 1: where do I think everyone else is going to go?
Speaker 1: And then I'll kind of pivot off of that because
Speaker 1: if I can get you know, if I think I
Speaker 1: can get Jordan speedth or Justin Thomas at a smaller
Speaker 1: ownership than let's say Mark Leishman or Brian Harmon. I'm
Speaker 1: going to do that. So I think based on the
Speaker 1: way that Harmon and Leishman played this past week and
Speaker 1: the fact that you can save you know, maybe one
Speaker 1: thousand dollars more salary, I think a lot of guys
Speaker 1: are going to do that this week. And I'm going
Speaker 1: to think, Oh, Justin Thomas played so bad last week.
Speaker 1: You know, he's got a different caddy on the bag,
Speaker 1: he's got bones on the bag. This week, you know,
Speaker 1: you may have a chance to where you can get
Speaker 1: you know, a defending champion at fifteen percent ownership, which
Speaker 1: I'll take all day. I'll take that risk because he
Speaker 1: is the upside to where he starts playing well, He's
Speaker 1: going to carry your your DraftKings tournament team this week.
Speaker 2: I kind of I would throw Jordan Speith into that
Speaker 2: Sam boat he had. He shot his seventy five in
Speaker 2: the first round, still finished in the top ten, and
Speaker 2: you know, you look at a golf course that should
Speaker 2: fit his game really well. There's he's the best player
Speaker 2: approaching the green on the PGA Tour and he finished
Speaker 2: top five last year in his first start here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think one of the stats that sticks
Speaker 1: out from last week is you know, we know Jordan's
Speaker 1: speaks a good putter traditionally in the long term. Right,
Speaker 1: So last week he lost almost four shots on the
Speaker 1: green strokes gained putting where normally he's you know, gaining
Speaker 1: what one point four shots a round, So he basically
Speaker 1: lost about a little over five shots off his average
Speaker 1: putting and he finished what ninth, ninth, Yeah, right right,
Speaker 1: And so if he makes those five, if he just
Speaker 1: puts normal. Last week, he finished his second to Djah,
Speaker 1: So if you think about that, you know his T
Speaker 1: degree game TD green game last week, you know, he
Speaker 1: gained almost nine shots on the field doing that. So
Speaker 1: if he can keep that up this week and just
Speaker 1: has a normal putting week, which I would not be
Speaker 1: surprised with considering the greens are a little bit easier
Speaker 1: to putt, I would not be surprised to see hit
Speaker 1: him up there in the top five this week, just
Speaker 1: because he's that good of a player.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you can never count out Jordan Speith,
Speaker 2: but uh I always you know, if you go with
Speaker 2: like a guy like Kissner who didn't have a great
Speaker 2: week last week, you can get a lot more value. So,
Speaker 2: like if you're taking a guy like Kisner, all of
Speaker 2: a sudden, you can stock up on some of these
Speaker 2: these you know, tier two guys that have you know,
Speaker 2: some people we've already talked about, Charles Howell, see Wu Kim,
Speaker 2: you know, along with past champions such as Russell Henley,
Speaker 2: Zach Johnson. So who do you like in this kind
Speaker 2: of like nine to eight thousand bracket.
Speaker 1: Yeah, one of my favorite DraftKings players the whole time
Speaker 1: is actually Tony Finaw because a common misconception people get
Speaker 1: when looking at DraftKings is it's, you know, they think, oh,
Speaker 1: it's just about how they finished for the week. But
Speaker 1: in reality, the scoring so heavily weighted towards birdies and
Speaker 1: eagles that that female oftentimes may finish twentieth, but he
Speaker 1: may have the tenth most points for the week. So
Speaker 1: if you're looking at DraftKings, female is usually a really
Speaker 1: good option because of his ability to make so many
Speaker 1: birdies and have all the eagle opportunities. And we know
Speaker 1: that the two par fives here, if Feale, you know,
Speaker 1: hits good drives on them, he's gonna have very short
Speaker 1: approach shots. He'd literally man like a labor nine.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and eighteen.
Speaker 1: And eighteen if he's able to hit a high draw
Speaker 1: over the corner there and the fact that you know,
Speaker 1: females kind of matured over the past year to where
Speaker 1: he's kind of realized he doesn't have to hit driver everywhere,
Speaker 1: so he's able to use his length in in other
Speaker 1: ways to where he's hitting, you know, hitting maybe a
Speaker 1: four iron off the tee, where he could do that
Speaker 1: here hit a four iron and still have a wedge
Speaker 1: into a lot of holes.
Speaker 2: We put together that list of breakout players that you
Speaker 2: put all the stats together and we're looking at it.
Speaker 2: And one of the guys that improved so much last
Speaker 2: year in strokes gain approach was Tony Finow and it
Speaker 2: didn't correlate to wins, but he was really consistent. So
Speaker 2: he was one of those guys. Had a couple of
Speaker 2: things gone his way, he could have had two three
Speaker 2: wins last year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely expect him at least one victory under
Speaker 1: his belt this year.
Speaker 2: Hey, I got a question that with a with a
Speaker 2: player here that's in this in this range. He was
Speaker 2: the Rookie of the Year last year. Xanderschoffley, are you
Speaker 2: worried at all? Like, how do you weigh club changes
Speaker 2: early in the season.
Speaker 1: It's always difficult the first couple of years, a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks this season, even if they're not changing clubs,
Speaker 1: just because of the fact that a lot of guys
Speaker 1: haven't played tournament golf for a couple months, right, So
Speaker 1: just you know, just just walking into Hawaii, you have
Speaker 1: a guy may not have played since you know, October November,
Speaker 1: or maybe they played the Hero Challenge, or maybe they
Speaker 1: played somewhere in Asia. I think I think Shotley played
Speaker 1: like at the Dunlop Dunlop Phoenix, and then I think
Speaker 1: he played maybe you know, one or two other events.
Speaker 1: But he obviously, you know, he obviously feel feels comfortable
Speaker 1: enough changing manufacturers there for the equipment that I'm not
Speaker 1: going to wait too much into that. I'm more concerned
Speaker 1: about how he's you know, how he's played in the
Speaker 1: Fall series, and you know the events in the Fall
Speaker 1: where you know, finished near last, the CJ Cup finished
Speaker 1: I think forty six of the HSBC, and then last
Speaker 1: week I think finished twenty second, So that that's a
Speaker 1: little more concerning to me. You know, that's a little
Speaker 1: bit different than the form he had when he you know,
Speaker 1: won the Tour Championship and was started the CIMB right
Speaker 1: after that.
Speaker 2: So yeah, one of my one of the players that
Speaker 2: I've highlighted as a potential breakout player this year, and
Speaker 2: I think this is a popular one, is Ali Schneider
Speaker 2: Jant and he's sitting there at eighty three hundred. He
Speaker 2: was a guy that I think he had four or
Speaker 2: five top five finishes last year, was consistently on leader
Speaker 2: boards as a rook and obviously, you know, former number
Speaker 2: one ranked amateur world player in the world. It has
Speaker 2: about as much talent as anybody out there. Do you
Speaker 2: like him this week? Are you passing on him?
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna pass on him this week. I'd much
Speaker 1: rather have another guy who was, you know, a top
Speaker 1: collegiate as well, which is Jamie Lovemark. And that's love Mark.
Speaker 1: You know, his last two times here he's gone fourth
Speaker 1: and seventh, and as we kind of talked about, you know,
Speaker 1: and it was in the article that we kind of
Speaker 1: had a few weeks back that based upon how he's
Speaker 1: been improving in his game, I would not be surprised
Speaker 1: to see love Mark, you know, notch that victory this year.
Speaker 1: And you know, on paper, you wouldn't think he'd be
Speaker 1: that great of a fit for his golf course, but
Speaker 1: for some reason, it just suits his eye. And I
Speaker 1: don't really know why, but when a player, you know,
Speaker 1: was able to come in and pick up two, you know,
Speaker 1: top seven finishes, that's probably meaning that they're liking the course.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he was. He had a really good year last year.
Speaker 2: Even though he didn't it was a sneaky good year.
Speaker 2: He had a really good stretch in the middle of
Speaker 2: the year, and I think, hey, you know, it's a
Speaker 2: sad story that he was derailed so early in his
Speaker 2: career by the back injuries, but it I think like
Speaker 2: he could be one of those guys that at age
Speaker 2: from age thirty to thirty five could have a really
Speaker 2: great run.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I can definitely see that with love Mark.
Speaker 2: So any other guys that kind of stick out in
Speaker 2: this eight thousand range, No, I definitely.
Speaker 1: See some guys right below the eight thousand range that
Speaker 1: I'm interested in. But there's a lot of guys in
Speaker 1: that eight thousand range, like Will mcgert or Daniel Berger
Speaker 1: that I'm probably be passing on this week to try
Speaker 1: to save some salary down below, especially if we're going
Speaker 1: to play Justin Thomas or Jordan sped So you.
Speaker 2: Know, one guy in this seven seven thousand range is
Speaker 2: JJ Spahn, who we already talked about. Who else in
Speaker 2: this group really kind of stands out.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go back to the well here with
Speaker 1: Austin Cook. It's another golf course that just fits him
Speaker 1: perfectly to where he's a guy that keeps and playoff
Speaker 1: the tea very solid iron game, and you know, has
Speaker 1: the ability to you know, when he when he's in
Speaker 1: position on the greens, can make a lot of those
Speaker 1: ten to fifteen foot plots for birdie, which I think
Speaker 1: is going to be needed this week if you're going
Speaker 1: to want to, you know, get to that winning score,
Speaker 1: which I'm guessing is probably gonna be between twenty to
Speaker 1: twenty three under somewhere in the area, just because the
Speaker 1: winds projected to be a little bit down this week,
Speaker 1: so I'm thinking the numbers are gonna be pretty low.
Speaker 2: You know, was kicking myself. So right after I published
Speaker 2: article in the fall about rookies to watch, a buddy
Speaker 2: of mine who Caddi's on the PGA tour texted me
Speaker 2: and goes, Dude, Austin Cook is going to be just
Speaker 2: an atm out there. That guy's going to make a
Speaker 2: ton of money, and sure enough, like two weeks later,
Speaker 2: he wins. So I'd buy Austin cook stock right now too,
Speaker 2: just based off of a review I trust.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think one of the other guys there,
Speaker 1: if you a little bit lower at seven, it seems
Speaker 1: like draftings. I don't know if they priced him in
Speaker 1: correctly or what, but you have Jason Duffner down at
Speaker 1: seventy three hundred. So one of the things I look
Speaker 1: at each week is I kind of compare the odds
Speaker 1: to win the tournament versus your salary, and we're seeing
Speaker 1: that Jason Duffner has the fifteenth best odds to win,
Speaker 1: yet he's all the way down here at seventy three hundred.
Speaker 1: So something just doesn't jive there.
Speaker 2: That's quite strange, and especially considering he's such a good
Speaker 2: ball striker.
Speaker 1: Oh especially and if you're looking like courses that are
Speaker 1: you know Corollary's Colonial, right, well, Jason Dufner plays pretty
Speaker 1: good at Colonial.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a Jason Duffner price the same as Kelly Kraft.
Speaker 1: Or Daysuki Katoka, I think is the better analogy there?
Speaker 2: Yeah, Hey, don't hate on Daysuke. What about Wes Bryan?
Speaker 2: You know you you talked about Harbortown and he obviously
Speaker 2: won there, but I feel like that could be another
Speaker 2: good fit, is uh Wes Bryan.
Speaker 1: Yeah. The only thing I'm concerned about with Wes Bryan
Speaker 1: is his ability to keep it in play off the tee,
Speaker 1: because going into last week he was, you know, looked
Speaker 1: at from a lot of people because the fairways were
Speaker 1: wide and it was, oh, it's just going to be
Speaker 1: an approach shot game and putting right up Wes Bryan's alley.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: The problem is he was not able to keep it
Speaker 1: anywhere in play last week. He lost eleven point three
Speaker 1: shots off the tee stroke gained at Kapalua. Now, obviously,
Speaker 1: I know a lot of that may be distanced, but
Speaker 1: I know he missed a lot of fairways and put
Speaker 1: a couple of them in the junk, especially in the
Speaker 1: par five.
Speaker 2: Fifth those are big fairways too. Yeah, but I you know,
Speaker 2: one of the things I think with a driver is
Speaker 2: a driver, just knowing from my own tournament golf experience,
Speaker 2: like your driver can just reappear one week to the
Speaker 2: next week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's coming from a guy who's used to driving
Speaker 1: it very well. I'm a guy that doesn't drive it
Speaker 1: very well, so I know that you don't get many
Speaker 1: weeks where you're hitting it well. So I can feel
Speaker 1: for Wes Bryan and his driver's struggles.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true. So anyone else in the seven thousand.
Speaker 2: I mean, we talked about Sam Ryder already, Jimmy Walker
Speaker 2: two time winner here lime disease? Is he is he
Speaker 2: over the lime disease? Like?
Speaker 1: I would still probably stay off that. I mean, I
Speaker 1: think you're gonna have a lot of people just flock
Speaker 1: to him for draftings just based upon the name and
Speaker 1: the fact that he's won here. So I'd rather just
Speaker 1: kind of fade that fifteen percent that's going to own
Speaker 1: him and hope he doesn't finish in the top fifteen
Speaker 1: or top twenty.
Speaker 2: Here's kind of a question that's bigger than just this.
Speaker 2: Is is this here that Patrick Rodgers is finally going
Speaker 2: to like win?
Speaker 1: I don't know about that. It seems to me that
Speaker 1: he's able to put together a couple good rounds, but
Speaker 1: I don't know if he's able to string together four
Speaker 1: rounds together. Like to me, he seems a lot like
Speaker 1: Russell Henley without the you know, the dynamic of being
Speaker 1: able to close it in the final round where you know,
Speaker 1: he has these highly variant rounds. The guy I can
Speaker 1: go out and shoot twenty nine and a nine holes
Speaker 1: with without a blink of an eye. It just no matter.
Speaker 1: Can he do it for four rounds?
Speaker 2: Yeah, Russell Henley is such a great putter too. I
Speaker 2: think that's that's kind of where Patrick Rodgers falls short.
Speaker 2: But he I mean, I think he's still twenty five.
Speaker 2: That guy has moreked as much talent as anybody out there.
Speaker 2: So now we're kind of in our into the bargain
Speaker 2: basement down here. Who pops at you know, seven thousand
Speaker 2: and under.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I got a few guys down here. One
Speaker 1: of them, what we could have mentioned earlier and talking
Speaker 1: about rookies, I think was a bo Hoostler. He's down
Speaker 1: there at seven thousand and interesting enough, he's actually he's
Speaker 1: three hundred and fifty to one to win this week,
Speaker 1: which is I think obviously not a correct price in
Speaker 1: the market. There no to where he's a guy that
Speaker 1: you know almost you know, he contended in the fall
Speaker 1: series at the Shiners. I think he lost by two
Speaker 1: when when I think Cantley won there and then the
Speaker 1: week before that he had another top ten at Sanderson's Farm.
Speaker 1: So if you look at for rookie, that might make
Speaker 1: a splash and you know, and kind of has the
Speaker 1: pedigree to go out there and win. He's a guy
Speaker 1: that I could see winning winning maybe not obviously, not
Speaker 1: this event, possibly, but could win one of the smaller
Speaker 1: field events this year on tour.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would agree with that. He won so much
Speaker 2: as a collegiate and amateur player, I mean as much
Speaker 2: pedigree as anybody. As you said, I think Bo Hustler,
Speaker 2: and and the fact that he got up to the
Speaker 2: PGA Tour. Like so he got up to the PGA
Speaker 2: Tour despite starting the year on the web dot Com
Speaker 2: with no status. He mondayed in in the middle of
Speaker 2: the season, finished second. Then I think he won the
Speaker 2: next week. So I mean the guy guy got up there,
Speaker 2: got up into the top twenty five, making about half
Speaker 2: the starts, as everybody else on the web dot Com
Speaker 2: tour a lot of talent, would I would not be
Speaker 2: surprised to see him contend for like Rookie of the Year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I could definitely see that. The only only way
Speaker 1: I maybe see maybe unless like Peter Yuline, happens to
Speaker 1: win a couple of times. I think he's probably be
Speaker 1: the favorite possible for Rookie of the Year if he
Speaker 1: you know, actually, I.
Speaker 2: Think Bo Hostler is not eligible now that I think
Speaker 2: about it, because he made there's this. You know, he
Speaker 2: got all those sponsors exemptions, and I don't think you're
Speaker 2: eligible if you get eight sponsors exemptions.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's about eight or nine. I think
Speaker 1: it's the cutoff there.
Speaker 2: It's one of the most confusing things on the PGA
Speaker 2: Tour is determining who and who isn't is a rookie.
Speaker 2: You know, one guy I kind of like to break
Speaker 2: out this year is Michael Kimp and I don't know
Speaker 2: if he's I don't think he's necessarily a great DraftKings guy,
Speaker 2: but he has hung around the PGA tour. I think
Speaker 2: he's into his third or fourth year now and was
Speaker 2: a dynamic amateur player, and he just seems like a
Speaker 2: guy that's gonna be a consistent player on the tour
Speaker 2: for a long time. And I think he's improved a
Speaker 2: lot approaching the Green and I think it's just a
Speaker 2: matter of time before he starts to really, you know,
Speaker 2: instead just making the cut have some top finishes.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna have to disagree with you on that one.
Speaker 1: And not one of my favorite players on tour there. Hey,
Speaker 1: to me, he seems like a guy that just keeps hovering,
Speaker 1: hovering around the cut there each week. And I don't
Speaker 1: really see the upside in his game to where he's
Speaker 1: going to record a lot of top ten finishes. And
Speaker 1: if you look at his record, like in the Fall Series,
Speaker 1: I think he played h you know, I think he
Speaker 1: played four events there and miss missed three of the cuts,
Speaker 1: and the one he didn't miss a cut was no
Speaker 1: cut event the c IMB Classics. So not as any
Speaker 1: trunding in the correct direction there.
Speaker 2: You know what, agree to disagree, We'll see the season
Speaker 2: will bear it out.
Speaker 1: It seems like a bets coming out on that one.
Speaker 2: So Steven Jaeger would be a guy that kind of
Speaker 2: fits this bill. He's not the longest rookie, but I
Speaker 2: mean he's lit it up. I mean he shot fifty
Speaker 2: seven at Stonebray. Of course that you get a lot
Speaker 2: of short irons and wedges into and you know what
Speaker 2: do you think, I mean, you probably haven't seen a
Speaker 2: ton of Yaeger, but he could be a guy that
Speaker 2: plays well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've seen him a little bit on the on
Speaker 1: the on the web dot com last year, you know,
Speaker 1: watching that, but he's he's definitely a guy where I'm
Speaker 1: gonna want to watch him the first couple starts on
Speaker 1: tour here during the main season, because I think the
Speaker 1: first couple of months you have a lot of people
Speaker 1: that just they see the name and they just don't
Speaker 1: know who that is, and they just kind of look
Speaker 1: over him, Whereas he could definitely provide a lot of value,
Speaker 1: not even just in DraftKings, but in some of the
Speaker 1: type of possible leagues you may be having to where
Speaker 1: he may be, you know, you know, kind of near
Speaker 1: the bottom of your choices there, because he played pretty
Speaker 1: decent in the fall. He had I think he had
Speaker 1: four out of five cuts made and and I think
Speaker 1: three of those were in the top thirty. So you know,
Speaker 1: the possibility for him, you know, getting up there and
Speaker 1: making some money and getting up the reshuffle list is
Speaker 1: definitely there.
Speaker 2: So a guy you liked last week is sitting there
Speaker 2: at sixty nine hundred, Ryan Armor, are you on him
Speaker 2: again this week?
Speaker 1: Oh? Yeah, you got to my to my favorite favorite
Speaker 1: play probably of the of the year. I'm gonna I'm
Speaker 1: gonna be, you know, a Ryan Armor fan all year
Speaker 1: because I think he's gonna be He's gonna be the
Speaker 1: Adam Hadwin this year to where he's gonna be underpriced
Speaker 1: every every week. It seems like he already won in
Speaker 1: the Fall series. And he's a guy who is an
Speaker 1: elite iron player, and a lot of people the public
Speaker 1: just won't think of Ryan Armor as a solid play
Speaker 1: because they've kind of seen his name on and off
Speaker 1: the tour for the last you know, six seven, eight years.
Speaker 1: You know, he's a guy. I think he's forty or
Speaker 1: forty one. But an interesting stat of dug up from
Speaker 1: after looking at the stats when Kapalua was so we
Speaker 1: look at Dustin Johnson. Dustin Johnson had thirty nine attempts
Speaker 1: for Birdier better inside twenty feet. Ryan Armor finished I
Speaker 1: think about seventeen shots behind him. But he had thirty
Speaker 1: eight opportunities for Birdie inside twenty feet last week and
Speaker 1: it was windy out and he did that. So if
Speaker 1: he's able to bring that precise iron game over to
Speaker 1: while this week and on a little bit flatter greens,
Speaker 1: and he's able to put halfway decent. I would not
Speaker 1: be surprised if he, you know, top five's, top tens,
Speaker 1: maybe even sneaks in his second victory this week.
Speaker 2: Yeah he, I mean he one week you can't make him,
Speaker 2: and then next week you can't miss. That's that's the
Speaker 2: way golf goes a lot of times. So ball striking
Speaker 2: leaves a lot slower, like it sticks around longer than putting.
Speaker 1: Yeah, one hundred percent agree on that. And the other
Speaker 1: thing is Armor is not the longest hitter out there,
Speaker 1: So there isn't necessarily a ton of courses you'd like
Speaker 1: to have him play on, but this is definitely a
Speaker 1: course where length may not necessarily be needed as much.
Speaker 1: And you know, he he can kind of follow the
Speaker 1: you know, the David Toms, the Kissner, Jerry Kelly, Zach
Speaker 1: Johnson's of the world, and you know, just maneuver it
Speaker 1: around the golf course and keep leaving himself puts aside
Speaker 1: fifteen or twenty feet.
Speaker 2: As a fellow contrarian, would you consider armor for one
Speaker 2: and done that?
Speaker 1: And that would be a potential option. Yeah, because if
Speaker 1: you have if you're in a large one and done.
Speaker 1: I'm in a few different contests and one was over
Speaker 1: you know, over a thousand people in it to where
Speaker 1: if you pick an armor, you're probably going to be
Speaker 1: you know, maybe two or three people have them, and
Speaker 1: that gives you a chance to where you can you know,
Speaker 1: jump up up the standings significantly.
Speaker 2: But by having that, yeah, that's uh. I always That's
Speaker 2: probably why I don't do well. Is I always am
Speaker 2: looking for like the sneaky contrarian take and I get
Speaker 2: to the end of the year and I look at
Speaker 2: my who I haven't picked yet, and I'm like, I
Speaker 2: got like, I got twenty guys that are in the
Speaker 2: top forty in the world that haven't used like probably
Speaker 2: messed up here.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Like one of the things, like a lot of
Speaker 1: people listen is probably do one and done. Conness is
Speaker 1: at the beginning of the year is I'll go through
Speaker 1: and chart out the events and list, you know, two
Speaker 1: or three guys that I like for each event. So
Speaker 1: that way kind of ahead of time, I could know
Speaker 1: to where Let's say I was looking at Charles Holle
Speaker 1: this week, I can see, Okay, there's two or three
Speaker 1: other events I may want to use Charles. How now
Speaker 1: do I want to burn him this week or not,
Speaker 1: whereas a lot of people will just pick somebody for
Speaker 1: this week and not think about the significance of that,
Speaker 1: you know, of them using that pick down down the line.
Speaker 1: But a good example of that is taking DJ at Riviera,
Speaker 1: because he's absolutely owned that place, right, A lot of
Speaker 1: people are gonna want to save him for there and
Speaker 1: not gonna want to burn him at other spots.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, And then do you save DJ for a
Speaker 2: major where you get maybe more points?
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's another question. The only thing is that I
Speaker 1: tend not to go with studs of the majors because
Speaker 1: the fields are so so difficult to win at and
Speaker 1: a lot of times the money is only significantly and
Speaker 1: is not really significantly more it maybe you know, one
Speaker 1: point seven million as opposed to one point two or
Speaker 1: one point three. I'd rather take a take him in
Speaker 1: a tournament to where he has you know, you know,
Speaker 1: only three or four guys in the top fifteen in
Speaker 1: the world as opposed to all fifteen guys.
Speaker 2: Mm hmm. So another guy that you mentioned in the
Speaker 2: article of Breakout Player is Harold Varner, and he's at
Speaker 2: sixty seven hundred despite making six of six cuts in
Speaker 2: the fall. What do you think?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he's one of the high upside plays
Speaker 1: of the week to where he's a guy that has
Speaker 1: the ability to make a lot of birdies in a row,
Speaker 1: and interesting enough, he's actually fairly consistent as well. I
Speaker 1: don't think he's His last miss cut was actually back
Speaker 1: at the John Deere in the summer. So for a
Speaker 1: guy that's, you know, this low priced, I think he's
Speaker 1: probably gonna make the cut this week. I don't know
Speaker 1: if he's necessarily gonna finish top ten, but i'd most
Speaker 1: likely project him summer between twentieth and fortieth, probably finishing
Speaker 1: and making a fair amount of birdies, which if you
Speaker 1: want to put Justin Thomas and jordan' speed in your
Speaker 1: lineup or one of them, Varner is going to be
Speaker 1: a very popular play on there to pair him with.
Speaker 2: I would think, Yeah, I could see his percentage being
Speaker 2: really high because he's a name who you got, you
Speaker 2: got Rory Sabatini or Omari Rusty heads up this week?
Speaker 1: Uh? Actually I don't mind playing Rory this week, you know,
Speaker 1: And you know, usually when I say that, I'm talking
Speaker 1: about Rory McElroy. But in this instance, I'm actually talking
Speaker 1: about Rory Sabatini. He surprisingly has a pretty decent record
Speaker 1: if we look all the way back here. So if
Speaker 1: we go back all the way to I got, you know,
Speaker 1: records anyboy the last like roughly ten years here, he
Speaker 1: actually has. He finished second twice here and six once
Speaker 1: and two other top fifteens. So for a guy that
Speaker 1: you know a lot of people will just kind of
Speaker 1: skim over they always played bad the last couple of years,
Speaker 1: he's not necessarily the worst, worst guy to just you know,
Speaker 1: just kind of throw a dart at and hope it hits.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have to say that I'm pretty sad that
Speaker 2: the Sony Open didn't extend a sponsors exemption to the
Speaker 2: player that's delivered the best moment in Sony Open history.
Speaker 1: Which is Robert Allenby. Oh, I thought you were going
Speaker 1: to talk but Tad Fujikawa, because I know he was
Speaker 1: trying to Monday qualify today. I don't know if you
Speaker 1: made it, but I know he was in the forty
Speaker 1: five person field.
Speaker 2: So I mean Allenby has provided a lifetime of memories
Speaker 2: at this event.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was one of the more interesting stories I
Speaker 1: think I've ever heard.
Speaker 2: So anybody else, you like, any other making any long
Speaker 2: shot bets, any head to head.
Speaker 1: I haven't really dug into the head to heads yet.
Speaker 1: Those usually you'll come out on Tuesdays or Wednesdays, so
Speaker 1: you can follow me on on on Twitter at Friday, Paul.
Speaker 1: You know, I'll kind of keep you updated up to
Speaker 1: date on those there. But in terms of any of
Speaker 1: your long shot bets, not really at this time. I
Speaker 1: mean I kind of mentioned Armor before. I think he's
Speaker 1: ninety to one or one hundred and one to win.
Speaker 1: I think it's probably good value down there in that bracket.
Speaker 2: Cool and then and then was it Hostler who is
Speaker 2: three fifty.
Speaker 1: Probably a bow hoster, was three hundred and fifty to
Speaker 1: one to win, So he's did those odds carry over?
Speaker 1: A lot of times they'll make the top ten or
Speaker 1: top five. Odds finish based upon their winning percentage, based
Speaker 1: upon their odds to win. So you may see Hostler
Speaker 1: at like twenty to one for a top ten. Yeah,
Speaker 1: which and if if you see that, that's obviously there's
Speaker 1: a lot of value there because you know his real
Speaker 1: odds to get a top ten or probably maybe eight
Speaker 1: to one, nine to one. This week, m hm.
Speaker 2: So before we let you out here, we got we
Speaker 2: gotta get some predictions for the year. Let's let's hear
Speaker 2: your major winners for the year.
Speaker 1: So major winners for the year, I would probably think
Speaker 1: that I'm thinking at Augusta. I know it's a popular choice,
Speaker 1: but I think you're gonna have Jordan Speth get a
Speaker 1: narrow victory over Justin Rose at Augusta. So I think
Speaker 1: Rose battles down the stretch again, but Spief pulls out
Speaker 1: another victory at Augusta. There all right, And then at
Speaker 1: the US Open, I'm thinking you may get a little
Speaker 1: bit more of a long shot this year at the
Speaker 1: US Open, you might you might have you might have
Speaker 1: a guy such as maybe even like Brian Harmon when
Speaker 1: there to where a guy gets his first major there,
Speaker 1: because I you know, at Shinnakocky you've had guys like
Speaker 1: Corey Pave and you know when they're to where. I
Speaker 1: don't necessarily think shinnacock is gonna be a course where
Speaker 1: you're gonna have to absolutely vomit. I think it's gonna
Speaker 1: be more US Open style in terms of having to
Speaker 1: control your ballfly, control your spin as opposed to the
Speaker 1: last couple of ones where it's kind of been a
Speaker 1: you know, vomit with a little bit more open off
Speaker 1: of tea. Is that kind of your assessment of the
Speaker 1: course as well. Uh?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's pretty it's pretty wide. I think
Speaker 2: it's gonna deliver. I personally think it will deliver a
Speaker 2: thoroughbread it's I think it's one of the great championship
Speaker 2: courses in the country. I think you gotta you're gonna
Speaker 2: have to have an all round game. It's a it's
Speaker 2: an architectural masterpiece.
Speaker 1: And then go on to the British. I believe that's
Speaker 1: a Carnoussi.
Speaker 2: This year CARNOUSI.
Speaker 1: So isn't that where isn't that where Sergio just barely
Speaker 1: missed uh winning winning the Major? Correct? Yeah?
Speaker 2: I mean it is a ball striking paradise there.
Speaker 1: I mean, you're knock he's got one one major under
Speaker 1: his belt. I wouldn't be surprised if he adds another
Speaker 1: one at the British.
Speaker 2: Okay, I like that. Pick a lot and Belle reeve
Speaker 2: the Jones family legacy. It's gonna be it's gonna be soft.
Speaker 2: It will there is. I am gonna say that Saint
Speaker 2: Louis in August is maybe the worst place in the
Speaker 2: world to be in August. It's going to be hot,
Speaker 2: it's gonna be humid, it's gonna rain. There's no chance
Speaker 2: that that golf course is in any way firm and fast. No.
Speaker 1: So yeah, So the one guy I like for that
Speaker 1: is actually Mark Leishman. And the thing is interesting enough,
Speaker 1: Leishman is looking like future odds. He's actually sixty six
Speaker 1: to one to win the PGA Championship right now, which
Speaker 1: I think is a lot of value.
Speaker 2: All Right, there's a good bet for anybody that's in
Speaker 2: Vegas or as a local bookie.
Speaker 1: Definitely.
Speaker 2: So I got a couple more predictions to throw at you,
Speaker 2: a couple more, you know, instead, in lieu of over
Speaker 2: eight and underrated. I'm just gonna ask you a couple
Speaker 2: odd questions. Sure will Paul Casey win this year?
Speaker 1: No? I am on the Paul Casey anti playing well
Speaker 1: on Sunday bandwagon. I've it's one of my favorite favorite
Speaker 1: bets to make is always on Paul cases in contention
Speaker 1: on Sunday. I take the head to head bet of
Speaker 1: whoever he's playing with. And I've done that for about
Speaker 1: three or four years and it's worked out very well.
Speaker 2: Will Rory McElroy and the year in the top.
Speaker 1: Ten, Yeah, in a top ten in the world or
Speaker 1: top ten in.
Speaker 2: FedEx couple, top ten in the world.
Speaker 1: Yes, Yes, I think he probably comes back and wins
Speaker 1: probably twice at least twice this year.
Speaker 2: What about Jason.
Speaker 1: Day, I'm thinking he's kind of in the in the
Speaker 1: same Rory boat. Maybe probably gonna get one to two wins,
Speaker 1: somewhere between eight to ten in the world. And I'm
Speaker 1: thinking just because I think you're gonna have guys like
Speaker 1: John Ram kind of solidify himself and you know, and
Speaker 1: finishing ahead of him in the world rankings.
Speaker 2: All right, player that will veteran player outside of the
Speaker 2: ones that you've written about, that's gonna have a great
Speaker 2: year that everybody's gonna be like, wow, how did we
Speaker 2: not see that coming.
Speaker 1: I would probably go with Sean O'Hare. That's a little
Speaker 1: bit out of left field. But O'Hare is just we've
Speaker 1: seen in the past that he has the ability to
Speaker 1: win events, and now that I think he's finally you know,
Speaker 1: he made some swing changes that he's finally feel uncomfortable
Speaker 1: with that that you know, he played good for for
Speaker 1: a couple weeks last year a Colonial, finishing second and
Speaker 1: fifth of the Byron Nelson. You know, he finished eleventh
Speaker 1: tier last year at the Sony. So it wouldn't surprise
Speaker 1: me if he picks up another win, maybe somewhere like
Speaker 1: at the Valspar in Tampa, or or maybe even at
Speaker 1: the at the Honda Classic or something like that. Tour.
Speaker 1: You know, it's a true ball striker's golf course. I
Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised if he picks up you know, one
Speaker 1: or two victories there. Yeah.
Speaker 2: He always kind of just like sneaks a win in.
Speaker 2: You know, you're like, oh, he won, he's won. You know,
Speaker 2: he won again.
Speaker 1: It's one of those you know, four or five years
Speaker 1: and you're like, Sean O'Hare won how many times on tour?
Speaker 2: All right, better season Bubba Watson or Hunter.
Speaker 1: Mayheon, Oh that that is Bubba Watson. By far, I
Speaker 1: honestly think Bubba is gonna be back to his full form. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I think I think he's gonna be He's going to
Speaker 1: be back. He's he's got he's back to his normal ball.
Speaker 1: Now you got away from the Volvic's, so now now
Speaker 1: that he's back to his normal ball. You can you know,
Speaker 1: maybe figure out back to his game to where I
Speaker 1: think he might have been focusing on the wrong parts
Speaker 1: of it, and now go back to his strengths and
Speaker 1: be able to know dominate the course Tee to Green
Speaker 1: to where I think he kind of lost it a
Speaker 1: little bit, uh te de Green over the last couple
Speaker 1: of years.
Speaker 2: So I'm just looking through players here, is is this
Speaker 2: the season that Martin Kaimer has like that that good
Speaker 2: year again out of nowhere? Like you know, he he'll
Speaker 2: go through a couple of bad years and and then
Speaker 2: he just has like a great year.
Speaker 1: I don't know if necessarily this year I would look
Speaker 1: towards future years based upon where where the majors are
Speaker 1: playing at. So if you look at the years that
Speaker 1: he's played, well, you've had years where it's been like
Speaker 1: Whistling Straights or Pinehurst, Like, I don't think any of
Speaker 1: these major tracks this year suit him that well. So
Speaker 1: I don't think shine I'd be a Kimer fan this year.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Carnoussi wouldn't fit him. Well.
Speaker 1: Augusta and we know and we know Augusta is not
Speaker 1: We'll never pick Martin Kimer well, not good.
Speaker 2: All right, well Paulie, well, well, we're gonna have Paulie
Speaker 2: on more regularly, maybe every week, who knows, Well, let
Speaker 2: us know what you think and uh, we'll see you soon.
Speaker 1: All right, Thanks for having me. Andy, you've been listening
Speaker 1: to the Fried Egg podcast. We do the digging for you.