Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownowitz. Daily we bring you
Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
Speaker 1: To find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot Com,
Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. What we're gonna
Speaker 1: do now is what Bloomberg Surveillance does best. We welcome
Speaker 1: all of you on radio and television to a clinic
Speaker 1: now with when Thin He's Global out of Currency Strategy
Speaker 1: and Brown Brothers hareman that barely describes as encyclopedic perspective
Speaker 1: on the history of foreign exchange and Pacific, specifically his
Speaker 1: Pacific rim that's a mouthful from Japan down to his Burma.
Speaker 1: Dr Finn, thank you so much for joining. I think
Speaker 1: we need to educate all, including myself, on the ancient
Speaker 1: Japanese trajectory of needing to weaken the yend. The Yen
Speaker 1: starts out in ninety nine after World War Two, set
Speaker 1: at three sixty. It goes on to plause our Chord
Speaker 1: two hundred stronger yet stronger Yen. The Louivi Chord oops
Speaker 1: two years later we screwed up one twenty and then
Speaker 1: the shock which you and I lived in of to
Speaker 1: use a phrase from Boston, wicked strong Yen of eighty.
Speaker 1: What where are we at now at one thirty within
Speaker 1: the ancient Japanese continuum to hate and dislike strong Yen? Well,
Speaker 1: first of all, thank you very much for having me, Tom,
Speaker 1: It's always a pleasure. Uh. You know, I think there's
Speaker 1: two things that we're really looking at right now. There's
Speaker 1: that old adage that you can never have too much
Speaker 1: of a good thing. The Japanese poassi makers have been
Speaker 1: uh looking for a weekend and higher inflation for years,
Speaker 1: if not decades, as you know, and they're finally getting it,
Speaker 1: but at at a pace that is quite uncomfortable. Now,
Speaker 1: I want to circle back to what you what I
Speaker 1: think Jonathan mentioned about how they coln sort of square
Speaker 1: the circle and they can't. Professor Mundel, who had had
Speaker 1: the pleasure of having it in class in grad school,
Speaker 1: uh way back in the sixties, talked about the impossible trinity.
Speaker 1: You cannot run h have free capital controls, run independent policy,
Speaker 1: and also influenced exchange rate. You cannot have all three,
Speaker 1: and so right now Japan has free capital flows and
Speaker 1: they are keeping uh materre post ultra loose. So there's
Speaker 1: it is as Mr Mundell, Professor Mundell would say, it
Speaker 1: is impossible to control the end. It's going to find
Speaker 1: its own level. Uh. The doubling down on your control,
Speaker 1: it stands out and starts contrasts. Earlier today the ricks
Speaker 1: Bank delivered a surprise hike. So when the ricks Bank
Speaker 1: is more hawkish than you, that that's saying something. When
Speaker 1: in a situation like this one, I think we will
Speaker 1: recognize that you've just illustrates it. Something has to give.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't use that what something has to break? But
Speaker 1: something has to give. How do you get a read
Speaker 1: on on what gives? Is it in the government bond
Speaker 1: market or is it in foreign exchange? I would say
Speaker 1: John has stupid determined. You know it's it's um It's
Speaker 1: not just a Japanese phenomenon. Also, obviously, this yeok of
Speaker 1: control could have been sustained if if globally bond hills
Speaker 1: had remained at low levels. And yet here we are,
Speaker 1: the US ten year is getting close to etcetera, etcetera.
Speaker 1: So it's making it much more challenging to me the
Speaker 1: Bank of Japan just delivered an ultra doubbish hole there.
Speaker 1: If you look at the forecast in the outlook report,
Speaker 1: they are saying no tightening through fiscally year twenty four.
Speaker 1: They I think they kept their core inflation forecast around
Speaker 1: one percent um for both fistically year twenty four. That's
Speaker 1: quite a statement. I think at some point they're going
Speaker 1: to have to turn around. And my I think my
Speaker 1: feeling right now is that Krodo will keep this policy
Speaker 1: going through the end of his term which ends next
Speaker 1: year early next year, and he's gonna allow his predecessor,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, his successor to sort of wrestle with. So
Speaker 1: that's a year out. I know that sounds like an
Speaker 1: eternity um, but I think eventually we will have abandon
Speaker 1: our yield of control. I don't think it's gona happen
Speaker 1: anytime soon, but it's it's as unnatural, you know, having
Speaker 1: a tenure at zero percent is unnatural. So that is
Speaker 1: where I think it will go. But we are nowhere
Speaker 1: near close to that pain threshold yet. In the meantime,
Speaker 1: when how much does this disrupt the idea of the
Speaker 1: yen as a haven trade, how much does this redirect
Speaker 1: flows simply into the dollar as the only haven left.
Speaker 1: Well that's a good point, so that that's really what
Speaker 1: the puzzle is right now. Over this last week or
Speaker 1: two of risk off activity, the end continue to weaken.
Speaker 1: So I don't like to put too much on one
Speaker 1: on one data point in one episode, but certainly something
Speaker 1: will look out for. We did have some finding some
Speaker 1: uh some correction lower intelligen in response to risk off,
Speaker 1: but it's very ministruble, maybe one or two yen. I
Speaker 1: think this this week, and I think that, uh, this,
Speaker 1: this montery polagide diversion is really to me the driving force. Yes,
Speaker 1: we'll have a couple of bouts of risk off. Maybe
Speaker 1: the end strength is a couple, you know, a couple
Speaker 1: of one or two percent. But to me, the the
Speaker 1: underlying stories monetary policy diversions again is going to go higher.
Speaker 1: M Dollyan is going to go higher. People throwing out
Speaker 1: one thirty five, I've heard one fifty. But I say,
Speaker 1: let's take one separate of time. Let's get to that two.
Speaker 1: Thou too high at one thirty five, and then let's
Speaker 1: see where things stands. Christopher and a Strtigues was just
Speaker 1: on and he was saying the knock on effects to
Speaker 1: China and the UN that we're saying overnight it's going
Speaker 1: to be a big concern to the Chinese authorities. Are
Speaker 1: we expecting some sort of further intervention there in order
Speaker 1: to stave off some of the dramatic pace of moves,
Speaker 1: if not the direction. Well, China is obviously very interesting.
Speaker 1: Despite sort of sort of introducing more market maximums, they
Speaker 1: still have very heavy hand in markets like financial markets
Speaker 1: across across China. Now again I would point out to
Speaker 1: monetary policies story there as well. People's make of China
Speaker 1: is actually even more delish in the sense that they
Speaker 1: are actually loosening posts right now. Japan is maintaining loose policy. See,
Speaker 1: but we're seeing the People's Bank of China reserve requirements.
Speaker 1: They've tweaked their interest rates lower. I think that more
Speaker 1: is coming, So that argus for more you want weakness
Speaker 1: more than the knock on effect. Of course, it's sort
Speaker 1: of it's all kind of wrapped together. But to me,
Speaker 1: that monte pass divergence in pbo c s is even stronger.
Speaker 1: Um they can control the pace a bit a bit
Speaker 1: more than Japan can. Obviously they have again a very
Speaker 1: heavy hand. But make no mistake, dollar you is going
Speaker 1: higher as well. Doctor said, I don't want you to
Speaker 1: get in trouble with the general counsel of the August
Speaker 1: Bank Brown Brothers harem and I'm gonna phrase this very carefully.
Speaker 1: To what you said two or three questions ago. What
Speaker 1: we're going to hear is bad people like that George
Speaker 1: Sorrows on Black Wednesday, quote are manipulating yen, are manipulating dollar,
Speaker 1: are manipulating the currency market? Respond to that, does the
Speaker 1: market tell these powers and institutions what to do? No?
Speaker 1: I mean, that's just a terrible trope about these these
Speaker 1: conspiracy theories. The market is the market. We have hedge funds,
Speaker 1: we have real money. We are you know, speculators of course,
Speaker 1: you know, we have all corporations, we have all sorts
Speaker 1: of players in the phone exchange market. I would say,
Speaker 1: I would pause it right now that with the upwards
Speaker 1: of three point five trillion dollars a day of f
Speaker 1: X flows daily, that's it's getting much much harder to
Speaker 1: quote unquote manipulate the markets. It was easy back in
Speaker 1: the nineties when we had pegs. You know, we had
Speaker 1: um capitals, are not as as large we had. Pigs
Speaker 1: are easy to break, uh so I of course it's
Speaker 1: always easy. Um. We see this a lot in emerging markets,
Speaker 1: whereas we always blame the foreign speculators. But it's a
Speaker 1: terrible trope that you know, I wish would would would really,
Speaker 1: you know, go go the way of wild West. That's
Speaker 1: just not the way the FX market is right now,
Speaker 1: Winston greant to catch up as a wife of Brand brothers.
Speaker 1: Harriman joining us now is someone who likes emerging markets,
Speaker 1: who likes US stocks. It's widely the global chief investment
Speaker 1: strategist at the black Rock Investment Institute, Whitely, Let's start here,
Speaker 1: why do you still like the equity story? Um, if
Speaker 1: you think about the broader macro environment, indeed, we have
Speaker 1: more challenges now thinking about policy uncertainty, thinking about a
Speaker 1: rate pushing higher. But if you think about the you know,
Speaker 1: like putting aside the year today kind of development real rate,
Speaker 1: we're still talking about really low levels versus historical UM
Speaker 1: averages and also the broader growth backroup. In our view, UM,
Speaker 1: the deal over from the war in Ukraine will impact
Speaker 1: European economies a lot more than US economies. So our
Speaker 1: estimates of the this bill over growth impact for the
Speaker 1: US economy for this year is after zero point five
Speaker 1: percent GDP growth track, which is quite a lot smaller
Speaker 1: than what we're expecting for for European economies. So that
Speaker 1: being the case, we prefer US market over European markets. Yes,
Speaker 1: we do like emerging markets that but broadly we still
Speaker 1: prefer developed market over emerging market. It's just that within
Speaker 1: emerging market we prefer to play it through local e
Speaker 1: M d versus e M equities. Right, currency, where you
Speaker 1: go right to where I want to go, which is
Speaker 1: local paper. I want you to give me the spill
Speaker 1: over on this new strong dollar black rock has to
Speaker 1: be riveted to the FFEX dynamics of yield and price
Speaker 1: briefits on that, how do you adjust to strong dollar
Speaker 1: in this crisis? With the end crisis was the end? Well, indeed,
Speaker 1: what we have seen so far one thirty dollar end
Speaker 1: is the significant moves. We're talking about two standard deviations
Speaker 1: away from the Cabinet office break even estimate, right, so
Speaker 1: we're talking about really really incredible, incredible currency volatility and moves.
Speaker 1: But that's very much speaks to this world of policy divergence.
Speaker 1: So on the one hand you have central banks like
Speaker 1: the PBOC and b o J. On the other hand,
Speaker 1: you have central banks like the FED and easy to
Speaker 1: be looking to get closer to neutral as quickly as possible.
Speaker 1: But specifically in the case of in the case of Japan,
Speaker 1: not only we have kind of the monetary side of
Speaker 1: phase actually still remaining very very accommodated. Actually on the
Speaker 1: physical side of things, they are coming through as well,
Speaker 1: right like they recently just announced to for the eight
Speaker 1: billion dollars of the physical aid to ease the inflation pain.
Speaker 1: So so so very very different from the world that
Speaker 1: we're seeing in the US and Europe. In Japan, actually
Speaker 1: we're still seeing this um this this this support coming
Speaker 1: from both the monetary side of things as well as
Speaker 1: the physical side of things. The Japanese yen should be
Speaker 1: a bit of a support for Japanese acquist given a
Speaker 1: historically the negative correlation between the two, but that correlation
Speaker 1: has condemn a little bit in recent years because a
Speaker 1: lot of the Japanese corporates actually moved their factories overseas,
Speaker 1: so that direct benefits is a bit less. But we
Speaker 1: like Japanese ouquts on the currency had basis. At this point,
Speaker 1: we're just taking a step back and quickly here is
Speaker 1: the only haven currency left the dollar. Oh, that's a
Speaker 1: that's a that's a great question. So far, if you
Speaker 1: look at within currencies, the dollar has been the key, right,
Speaker 1: like that's where people hide when things things go wrong.
Speaker 1: But one has to also question at some point that
Speaker 1: the benefit of government bonds as a diversifier in portfolios.
Speaker 1: We have to kind of discussed at which point of
Speaker 1: use levels government bonds can be good again as diversifiers
Speaker 1: in portfolios. Right, so so far they have not been good. Um,
Speaker 1: they have found the opposite of what we expect them too.
Speaker 1: But there is a level at which point tension funds
Speaker 1: are going to find government bonds attract and and and
Speaker 1: and as we moved further away from zero down to
Speaker 1: actually their diversification benefits would also come back in place.
Speaker 1: So that's that's something else that we're playing very close.
Speaker 1: Just funny, just to jump in in the amount of
Speaker 1: time we have left. You said something really interesting. Then
Speaker 1: you like Japanese equity still on a currency hedge basis,
Speaker 1: just two questions, why would you hedge the currency? And
Speaker 1: to how expensive is it to do? That right now,
Speaker 1: given the moves with saying that's a great question. Well,
Speaker 1: we turned positive on Japanese aquities earlier in the year,
Speaker 1: and we wanted to kind of hedge out the currency
Speaker 1: side of things because the negative correlation between aquities and currency,
Speaker 1: and also because the expectation for currency to weaken given
Speaker 1: policy divergence that is talked about a hundred and thirty.
Speaker 1: If we're talking about fresh entry into Japanese markets through
Speaker 1: currencies or through uh aquity markets, we probably would not
Speaker 1: be too mum. It's being currency had because as I
Speaker 1: said earlier, this represents two standard division moved from the
Speaker 1: great even from the Cabinet office and hadging cost. Well,
Speaker 1: thank you if the blank Rock investment instituted right now.
Speaker 1: Joining us in Kiev is a most original mayor, not
Speaker 1: only the mayor of a beleaguered capital of this nation, Ukraine,
Speaker 1: but also acclaimed truly with his brother, the pair of
Speaker 1: boxing brothers in the world, with many many heavyweight champions.
Speaker 1: But totally this is not boxing, this is not sport.
Speaker 1: There's a meanness here that you fought against an athletics
Speaker 1: for years. You state that the meanness of Vladimir Putin
Speaker 1: will go after these iconic symbols of your Kiev. When
Speaker 1: do you expect Mr Putin to go after those acclaimed
Speaker 1: churches and other sanctuaries. Um regards from Kiev, thank you
Speaker 1: for your question. But you can compare the right now
Speaker 1: citation in in Ukraine with support in Sport. You have
Speaker 1: clear rules. If you break the rules, you will be desified,
Speaker 1: and especially right now in the war, we see the
Speaker 1: whole world sees no rules. The economy of our country
Speaker 1: is destroyed, is big drama for all population, not just
Speaker 1: in the whole country. Also a big drama in uh
Speaker 1: in the capital of Ukraine, is big drama for everyone.
Speaker 1: From forty million people who live in Ukraine, a lot
Speaker 1: of millions of refugees uh try to find their new homes.
Speaker 1: People doesn't have a job right now, economy doesn't work,
Speaker 1: and right now they every day die people, civilians. And
Speaker 1: I talked many times this war, this war since less
Speaker 1: war is genocide of Ukrainian population because our city is destroyed.
Speaker 1: I talking about Mario Hartkieve, Erney in other and other
Speaker 1: cities which actually destroyed. And it's it's a big drama.
Speaker 1: Metallic Clio, the Mayor of Kiev with us today. We
Speaker 1: are so glad to get a sense of what's going on,
Speaker 1: but also horrified by what you talk about. How much
Speaker 1: will it cost to rebuild the Kiev of old? Actually
Speaker 1: we have redtail is a huge impact for our economy,
Speaker 1: a lot of people job less, A big part of
Speaker 1: the people advocate to the safe part of the city.
Speaker 1: We have more than two hundred buildings. We were totally destroyed.
Speaker 1: They destroyed all in structure. To rebuild the buildings. I
Speaker 1: guess it's not so big money. It's around the hundred
Speaker 1: million US dollar, But we lose the money in a
Speaker 1: budget and our i CD we guesses around the one
Speaker 1: one have billion US dollar. What our budget doesn't get
Speaker 1: they don't begin and and uh also I told you
Speaker 1: about their numbers right now, but we don't know how
Speaker 1: long will be the war and how much this would
Speaker 1: be cost in the next couple of weeks, maybe months,
Speaker 1: maybe years, mayor this is a delicate question. We hear
Speaker 1: about forty of the businesses in Kieva have reopened. Some
Speaker 1: people are trying to come back to their homeland. How
Speaker 1: many people do you expect what proportion of people do
Speaker 1: you expect not to return because of the threat and
Speaker 1: because of the war, people is afraid and right now
Speaker 1: that people ask me as a general manager of hometown,
Speaker 1: we have to come and not we stay in in
Speaker 1: other places. I tell to everyone right now we can't
Speaker 1: guarantee the safety in in capital. Just a week ago
Speaker 1: the Russian record alleged in buildings in hometown and the
Speaker 1: five civilians is dead, a lot of injured. By the ways,
Speaker 1: um more hundred people, two hundred citizens of hometown is
Speaker 1: dead and four children. Right Mary Klitchko, one final question,
Speaker 1: if we could, what weapons do you need right now
Speaker 1: from the Allies and from the United States, if you're
Speaker 1: afraid of further missile attacks again on symbolic Ukraine. What
Speaker 1: is the material you need now? We have to cover
Speaker 1: this air above our heads, but we need have weapons.
Speaker 1: I want to say depends the weapon because because we
Speaker 1: defend our country. I'm not military, I'm not the officer
Speaker 1: of military forces. That's why I can't give you exactly
Speaker 1: names what we need, what we need, but we need
Speaker 1: the weapon definitely because we stay in strong against the
Speaker 1: strongest army the world, the Russian's army, and that's why
Speaker 1: it's uh will be not enoughly and we want to
Speaker 1: say sank so much to the the United States to support
Speaker 1: your brains were important. Mayor, thank you so much for
Speaker 1: joining Bloomberg this morning Metallic Disco. Here's the mayor of Keep.
Speaker 1: Can we continue that conversation and the Troit dearborn in
Speaker 1: autos with John Lawler, chief executive officer Ford Motor, who
Speaker 1: has tattooed to is Iowa brain that you need to
Speaker 1: be in a Ford pickup truck to go from Ames,
Speaker 1: Iowa down to des Moine, Iowa. That's the way you
Speaker 1: do it in the midwest of this country, John, can
Speaker 1: you sell a new ninety dollar fully loaded electric pickup
Speaker 1: truck on the East and the West coasts of this nation. Absolutely?
Speaker 1: In fact are early reservations and orders are highly skewed
Speaker 1: towards the California and the East coast. So absolutely. Now
Speaker 1: one other thing to point out. We do have high
Speaker 1: end pickup trucks um in the price rains that you
Speaker 1: talked about, but we also have the starting series at
Speaker 1: around forty dollars, so you know, we've made this vehicle
Speaker 1: affordable for um our commercial customers and as well as
Speaker 1: those that would want to enter into it at the
Speaker 1: entry level series. What is the torque issue it came out. Now,
Speaker 1: this is a little bit engineering and it's away from
Speaker 1: the financial side of Ford Motor. But what people are
Speaker 1: saying is this thing can't pull like the other electric vehicles.
Speaker 1: You're in those meetings with your Knox engineering degree, help
Speaker 1: us with that. Is a torque there? Yes, this truck
Speaker 1: is fully capable. It's build Ford Tough, right. It has
Speaker 1: all the capabilities we see you need in a pickup truck.
Speaker 1: It has the horse power, it has the payload, and
Speaker 1: it does have the towing. So UM we feel very
Speaker 1: confident this this truck will meet our customers and needs
Speaker 1: and it will represent Ford Tough as we UM have
Speaker 1: for many years with our F series John. That might
Speaker 1: be the look forward. The look now, though, is beset
Speaker 1: by a lot of supply chain issues which definitely were
Speaker 1: weighing on some of the supplies that you are getting
Speaker 1: in terms of some of your automobiles in the first quarter.
Speaker 1: Going forward, you maintained your guidance though, even though you
Speaker 1: have seen production fall short of where you were expecting.
Speaker 1: How can that be? Well, you know, if you look
Speaker 1: at the first quarter, we had incredible demand for our products,
Speaker 1: all of our new products in fact, the Broncho, the
Speaker 1: Broncos Sport, the new Maverick, and then our electric fields, Machi,
Speaker 1: the Transit now the incredible f one fifty Lightning. So
Speaker 1: we see very strong demand for our products. Now in
Speaker 1: the first quarter, we were disrupted by the modules um
Speaker 1: that we're constrained due to the chip crisis. We resolved
Speaker 1: many of those. We do see rate and flow of
Speaker 1: chips or the availability of chips improving as we go
Speaker 1: through the second half, and we're seeing great traction on
Speaker 1: our forward plus plans. So improving chips uh great traction
Speaker 1: our forward plus plan in an increasing demand, in very
Speaker 1: high demand, and we see our volumes up this year
Speaker 1: versus last year ten to fift and that gives us
Speaker 1: confidence in reaffirming our guidance of eleven and a half
Speaker 1: to twelve and a half adjusted EBIT for the year. John,
Speaker 1: how much do you expect to raise prices on your
Speaker 1: Ford automobiles this year even the fact that demand is
Speaker 1: to robust and supplies are still constrained. Well, we've we've
Speaker 1: taken pricing this year, and we are an inflationary environment.
Speaker 1: The pricing that we have taken has stuck and we'll
Speaker 1: continue to manage that. Um you know, you'll you'll probably
Speaker 1: see if inflationary pressures continue, commodity prices continue to increase,
Speaker 1: you'll see in additional price increases. But the other thing
Speaker 1: that we're doing is we're also focused on costs. Is
Speaker 1: in an inflationary environment, you have to manage both ends,
Speaker 1: and so we're laser focused on increasing productive productivity and
Speaker 1: driving efficiencies through every line item of our income statement. John,
Speaker 1: I want and I don't want to get you in
Speaker 1: trouble with your general counsel, but I got to ask
Speaker 1: you this question. Full disclosure, folks. I grew up in
Speaker 1: a Ford family and my you you either had a
Speaker 1: Ford or a GM, That's all there was to it.
Speaker 1: And my father had the original Bronco built Ford Tough
Speaker 1: was made in nineteen seventy nine. You guys are run
Speaker 1: with that forever. I've had the honor of talking to
Speaker 1: Bill Ford about it. The fact is Elon Musk thinks
Speaker 1: he has built Tesla Tough. How does Tesla deal with
Speaker 1: your Ford? Pick up? With Mary Silverado in the forty
Speaker 1: seven other e vs out there that have a history
Speaker 1: of Tough, We've got the iconic brand. We have f
Speaker 1: one fifty. It's the number one selling vehicle in the US.
Speaker 1: We know what customers need, We know what Ford tough means.
Speaker 1: What are the What are the customers telling you, Johnny,
Speaker 1: I don't mean to interrupt, this is too important. What
Speaker 1: are the customers telling you they want? Is a purchase
Speaker 1: differentiator right now over Tesla. When you look at our product,
Speaker 1: we continue to make sure that it has the capability,
Speaker 1: it's a tool, it has pro power on board, it
Speaker 1: has all of the capabilities I talked about earlier. They
Speaker 1: want that, plus they also want the amenities that you
Speaker 1: get with an electric vehicle that we provide the charging.
Speaker 1: That's a tool, that's an enhancement for them. So they're
Speaker 1: coming to us and saying they want the room, they
Speaker 1: want the capabilities, and they want the every the benefit
Speaker 1: you get from having an EV power train. So customers
Speaker 1: want that benefit of you know, a clean emissions and
Speaker 1: everything else you get with the EV, along with no
Speaker 1: compromises to what you would expect from a Ford f
Speaker 1: one fifty, and we're delivering that hight John, great to
Speaker 1: can't shop to hear from you said thanks for beam
Speaker 1: with this this morning, John, Lord of that they fold
Speaker 1: Mota s S. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks
Speaker 1: for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to ten
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Speaker 1: and of course on the terminal. I'm Tom Keene and
Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg. Love Me Too.