1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along 2 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownowitz. Daily we bring you 3 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 4 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:23,799 Speaker 1: To find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot Com, 5 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:30,319 Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. What we're gonna 6 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 1: do now is what Bloomberg Surveillance does best. We welcome 7 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:34,920 Speaker 1: all of you on radio and television to a clinic 8 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:38,959 Speaker 1: now with when Thin He's Global out of Currency Strategy 9 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 1: and Brown Brothers hareman that barely describes as encyclopedic perspective 10 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:48,239 Speaker 1: on the history of foreign exchange and Pacific, specifically his 11 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 1: Pacific rim that's a mouthful from Japan down to his Burma. 12 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 1: Dr Finn, thank you so much for joining. I think 13 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 1: we need to educate all, including myself, on the ancient 14 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 1: Japanese trajectory of needing to weaken the yend. The Yen 15 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: starts out in ninety nine after World War Two, set 16 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 1: at three sixty. It goes on to plause our Chord 17 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:15,639 Speaker 1: two hundred stronger yet stronger Yen. The Louivi Chord oops 18 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 1: two years later we screwed up one twenty and then 19 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 1: the shock which you and I lived in of to 20 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 1: use a phrase from Boston, wicked strong Yen of eighty. 21 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 1: What where are we at now at one thirty within 22 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 1: the ancient Japanese continuum to hate and dislike strong Yen? Well, 23 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 1: first of all, thank you very much for having me, Tom, 24 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:42,160 Speaker 1: It's always a pleasure. Uh. You know, I think there's 25 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 1: two things that we're really looking at right now. There's 26 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:46,560 Speaker 1: that old adage that you can never have too much 27 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 1: of a good thing. The Japanese poassi makers have been 28 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 1: uh looking for a weekend and higher inflation for years, 29 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 1: if not decades, as you know, and they're finally getting it, 30 00:01:57,240 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 1: but at at a pace that is quite uncomfortable. Now, 31 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 1: I want to circle back to what you what I 32 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 1: think Jonathan mentioned about how they coln sort of square 33 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 1: the circle and they can't. Professor Mundel, who had had 34 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 1: the pleasure of having it in class in grad school, 35 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 1: uh way back in the sixties, talked about the impossible trinity. 36 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:18,960 Speaker 1: You cannot run h have free capital controls, run independent policy, 37 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 1: and also influenced exchange rate. You cannot have all three, 38 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:25,359 Speaker 1: and so right now Japan has free capital flows and 39 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 1: they are keeping uh materre post ultra loose. So there's 40 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 1: it is as Mr Mundell, Professor Mundell would say, it 41 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 1: is impossible to control the end. It's going to find 42 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:39,960 Speaker 1: its own level. Uh. The doubling down on your control, 43 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:42,839 Speaker 1: it stands out and starts contrasts. Earlier today the ricks 44 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 1: Bank delivered a surprise hike. So when the ricks Bank 45 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:48,959 Speaker 1: is more hawkish than you, that that's saying something. When 46 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 1: in a situation like this one, I think we will 47 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:53,639 Speaker 1: recognize that you've just illustrates it. Something has to give. 48 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 1: I wouldn't use that what something has to break? But 49 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 1: something has to give. How do you get a read 50 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:01,239 Speaker 1: on on what gives? Is it in the government bond 51 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 1: market or is it in foreign exchange? I would say 52 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:08,359 Speaker 1: John has stupid determined. You know it's it's um It's 53 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 1: not just a Japanese phenomenon. Also, obviously, this yeok of 54 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 1: control could have been sustained if if globally bond hills 55 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 1: had remained at low levels. And yet here we are, 56 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 1: the US ten year is getting close to etcetera, etcetera. 57 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 1: So it's making it much more challenging to me the 58 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:30,640 Speaker 1: Bank of Japan just delivered an ultra doubbish hole there. 59 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:33,680 Speaker 1: If you look at the forecast in the outlook report, 60 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:37,920 Speaker 1: they are saying no tightening through fiscally year twenty four. 61 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 1: They I think they kept their core inflation forecast around 62 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 1: one percent um for both fistically year twenty four. That's 63 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 1: quite a statement. I think at some point they're going 64 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 1: to have to turn around. And my I think my 65 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 1: feeling right now is that Krodo will keep this policy 66 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 1: going through the end of his term which ends next 67 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 1: year early next year, and he's gonna allow his predecessor, 68 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:00,120 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, his successor to sort of wrestle with. So 69 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 1: that's a year out. I know that sounds like an 70 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 1: eternity um, but I think eventually we will have abandon 71 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 1: our yield of control. I don't think it's gona happen 72 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 1: anytime soon, but it's it's as unnatural, you know, having 73 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 1: a tenure at zero percent is unnatural. So that is 74 00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:17,559 Speaker 1: where I think it will go. But we are nowhere 75 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 1: near close to that pain threshold yet. In the meantime, 76 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 1: when how much does this disrupt the idea of the 77 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 1: yen as a haven trade, how much does this redirect 78 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:29,279 Speaker 1: flows simply into the dollar as the only haven left. 79 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 1: Well that's a good point, so that that's really what 80 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 1: the puzzle is right now. Over this last week or 81 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: two of risk off activity, the end continue to weaken. 82 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:39,840 Speaker 1: So I don't like to put too much on one 83 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 1: on one data point in one episode, but certainly something 84 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 1: will look out for. We did have some finding some 85 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 1: uh some correction lower intelligen in response to risk off, 86 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:52,720 Speaker 1: but it's very ministruble, maybe one or two yen. I 87 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 1: think this this week, and I think that, uh, this, 88 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 1: this montery polagide diversion is really to me the driving force. Yes, 89 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:01,839 Speaker 1: we'll have a couple of bouts of risk off. Maybe 90 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:03,799 Speaker 1: the end strength is a couple, you know, a couple 91 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 1: of one or two percent. But to me, the the 92 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 1: underlying stories monetary policy diversions again is going to go higher. 93 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 1: M Dollyan is going to go higher. People throwing out 94 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 1: one thirty five, I've heard one fifty. But I say, 95 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: let's take one separate of time. Let's get to that two. 96 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:20,480 Speaker 1: Thou too high at one thirty five, and then let's 97 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:22,960 Speaker 1: see where things stands. Christopher and a Strtigues was just 98 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 1: on and he was saying the knock on effects to 99 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 1: China and the UN that we're saying overnight it's going 100 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 1: to be a big concern to the Chinese authorities. Are 101 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 1: we expecting some sort of further intervention there in order 102 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 1: to stave off some of the dramatic pace of moves, 103 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:39,839 Speaker 1: if not the direction. Well, China is obviously very interesting. 104 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:43,160 Speaker 1: Despite sort of sort of introducing more market maximums, they 105 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 1: still have very heavy hand in markets like financial markets 106 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 1: across across China. Now again I would point out to 107 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 1: monetary policies story there as well. People's make of China 108 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 1: is actually even more delish in the sense that they 109 00:05:56,440 --> 00:06:00,280 Speaker 1: are actually loosening posts right now. Japan is maintaining loose policy. See, 110 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 1: but we're seeing the People's Bank of China reserve requirements. 111 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 1: They've tweaked their interest rates lower. I think that more 112 00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:09,680 Speaker 1: is coming, So that argus for more you want weakness 113 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 1: more than the knock on effect. Of course, it's sort 114 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:14,279 Speaker 1: of it's all kind of wrapped together. But to me, 115 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: that monte pass divergence in pbo c s is even stronger. 116 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:21,159 Speaker 1: Um they can control the pace a bit a bit 117 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 1: more than Japan can. Obviously they have again a very 118 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:26,600 Speaker 1: heavy hand. But make no mistake, dollar you is going 119 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 1: higher as well. Doctor said, I don't want you to 120 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:30,600 Speaker 1: get in trouble with the general counsel of the August 121 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 1: Bank Brown Brothers harem and I'm gonna phrase this very carefully. 122 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:37,200 Speaker 1: To what you said two or three questions ago. What 123 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:41,239 Speaker 1: we're going to hear is bad people like that George 124 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: Sorrows on Black Wednesday, quote are manipulating yen, are manipulating dollar, 125 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 1: are manipulating the currency market? Respond to that, does the 126 00:06:54,200 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 1: market tell these powers and institutions what to do? No? 127 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:03,000 Speaker 1: I mean, that's just a terrible trope about these these 128 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 1: conspiracy theories. The market is the market. We have hedge funds, 129 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 1: we have real money. We are you know, speculators of course, 130 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 1: you know, we have all corporations, we have all sorts 131 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 1: of players in the phone exchange market. I would say, 132 00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 1: I would pause it right now that with the upwards 133 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 1: of three point five trillion dollars a day of f 134 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 1: X flows daily, that's it's getting much much harder to 135 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 1: quote unquote manipulate the markets. It was easy back in 136 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 1: the nineties when we had pegs. You know, we had 137 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 1: um capitals, are not as as large we had. Pigs 138 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 1: are easy to break, uh so I of course it's 139 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 1: always easy. Um. We see this a lot in emerging markets, 140 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 1: whereas we always blame the foreign speculators. But it's a 141 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 1: terrible trope that you know, I wish would would would really, 142 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 1: you know, go go the way of wild West. That's 143 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 1: just not the way the FX market is right now, 144 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 1: Winston greant to catch up as a wife of Brand brothers. 145 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:59,280 Speaker 1: Harriman joining us now is someone who likes emerging markets, 146 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 1: who likes US stocks. It's widely the global chief investment 147 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 1: strategist at the black Rock Investment Institute, Whitely, Let's start here, 148 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 1: why do you still like the equity story? Um, if 149 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 1: you think about the broader macro environment, indeed, we have 150 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 1: more challenges now thinking about policy uncertainty, thinking about a 151 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 1: rate pushing higher. But if you think about the you know, 152 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 1: like putting aside the year today kind of development real rate, 153 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 1: we're still talking about really low levels versus historical UM 154 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 1: averages and also the broader growth backroup. In our view, UM, 155 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 1: the deal over from the war in Ukraine will impact 156 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 1: European economies a lot more than US economies. So our 157 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 1: estimates of the this bill over growth impact for the 158 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:52,080 Speaker 1: US economy for this year is after zero point five 159 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 1: percent GDP growth track, which is quite a lot smaller 160 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 1: than what we're expecting for for European economies. So that 161 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 1: being the case, we prefer US market over European markets. Yes, 162 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 1: we do like emerging markets that but broadly we still 163 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 1: prefer developed market over emerging market. It's just that within 164 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 1: emerging market we prefer to play it through local e 165 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 1: M d versus e M equities. Right, currency, where you 166 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 1: go right to where I want to go, which is 167 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 1: local paper. I want you to give me the spill 168 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:24,200 Speaker 1: over on this new strong dollar black rock has to 169 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 1: be riveted to the FFEX dynamics of yield and price 170 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:33,720 Speaker 1: briefits on that, how do you adjust to strong dollar 171 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 1: in this crisis? With the end crisis was the end? Well, indeed, 172 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 1: what we have seen so far one thirty dollar end 173 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:48,160 Speaker 1: is the significant moves. We're talking about two standard deviations 174 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 1: away from the Cabinet office break even estimate, right, so 175 00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:58,559 Speaker 1: we're talking about really really incredible, incredible currency volatility and moves. 176 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 1: But that's very much speaks to this world of policy divergence. 177 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 1: So on the one hand you have central banks like 178 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 1: the PBOC and b o J. On the other hand, 179 00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:12,679 Speaker 1: you have central banks like the FED and easy to 180 00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 1: be looking to get closer to neutral as quickly as possible. 181 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:20,200 Speaker 1: But specifically in the case of in the case of Japan, 182 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 1: not only we have kind of the monetary side of 183 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:26,840 Speaker 1: phase actually still remaining very very accommodated. Actually on the 184 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 1: physical side of things, they are coming through as well, 185 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:32,720 Speaker 1: right like they recently just announced to for the eight 186 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:38,199 Speaker 1: billion dollars of the physical aid to ease the inflation pain. 187 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:41,480 Speaker 1: So so so very very different from the world that 188 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:44,320 Speaker 1: we're seeing in the US and Europe. In Japan, actually 189 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:47,600 Speaker 1: we're still seeing this um this this this support coming 190 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:49,840 Speaker 1: from both the monetary side of things as well as 191 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,719 Speaker 1: the physical side of things. The Japanese yen should be 192 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 1: a bit of a support for Japanese acquist given a 193 00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:59,360 Speaker 1: historically the negative correlation between the two, but that correlation 194 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 1: has condemn a little bit in recent years because a 195 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:06,920 Speaker 1: lot of the Japanese corporates actually moved their factories overseas, 196 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:09,640 Speaker 1: so that direct benefits is a bit less. But we 197 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:12,439 Speaker 1: like Japanese ouquts on the currency had basis. At this point, 198 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:15,440 Speaker 1: we're just taking a step back and quickly here is 199 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 1: the only haven currency left the dollar. Oh, that's a 200 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 1: that's a that's a great question. So far, if you 201 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:28,640 Speaker 1: look at within currencies, the dollar has been the key, right, 202 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 1: like that's where people hide when things things go wrong. 203 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 1: But one has to also question at some point that 204 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 1: the benefit of government bonds as a diversifier in portfolios. 205 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:44,880 Speaker 1: We have to kind of discussed at which point of 206 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 1: use levels government bonds can be good again as diversifiers 207 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:52,800 Speaker 1: in portfolios. Right, so so far they have not been good. Um, 208 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:55,679 Speaker 1: they have found the opposite of what we expect them too. 209 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:58,120 Speaker 1: But there is a level at which point tension funds 210 00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 1: are going to find government bonds attract and and and 211 00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 1: and as we moved further away from zero down to 212 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 1: actually their diversification benefits would also come back in place. 213 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:10,680 Speaker 1: So that's that's something else that we're playing very close. 214 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 1: Just funny, just to jump in in the amount of 215 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 1: time we have left. You said something really interesting. Then 216 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:18,760 Speaker 1: you like Japanese equity still on a currency hedge basis, 217 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 1: just two questions, why would you hedge the currency? And 218 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 1: to how expensive is it to do? That right now, 219 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 1: given the moves with saying that's a great question. Well, 220 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 1: we turned positive on Japanese aquities earlier in the year, 221 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 1: and we wanted to kind of hedge out the currency 222 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 1: side of things because the negative correlation between aquities and currency, 223 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:45,560 Speaker 1: and also because the expectation for currency to weaken given 224 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:48,959 Speaker 1: policy divergence that is talked about a hundred and thirty. 225 00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 1: If we're talking about fresh entry into Japanese markets through 226 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:58,679 Speaker 1: currencies or through uh aquity markets, we probably would not 227 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 1: be too mum. It's being currency had because as I 228 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:06,560 Speaker 1: said earlier, this represents two standard division moved from the 229 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 1: great even from the Cabinet office and hadging cost. Well, 230 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:19,440 Speaker 1: thank you if the blank Rock investment instituted right now. 231 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:23,440 Speaker 1: Joining us in Kiev is a most original mayor, not 232 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 1: only the mayor of a beleaguered capital of this nation, Ukraine, 233 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 1: but also acclaimed truly with his brother, the pair of 234 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:37,160 Speaker 1: boxing brothers in the world, with many many heavyweight champions. 235 00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 1: But totally this is not boxing, this is not sport. 236 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:44,640 Speaker 1: There's a meanness here that you fought against an athletics 237 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 1: for years. You state that the meanness of Vladimir Putin 238 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 1: will go after these iconic symbols of your Kiev. When 239 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:58,800 Speaker 1: do you expect Mr Putin to go after those acclaimed 240 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 1: churches and other sanctuaries. Um regards from Kiev, thank you 241 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:09,960 Speaker 1: for your question. But you can compare the right now 242 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 1: citation in in Ukraine with support in Sport. You have 243 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 1: clear rules. If you break the rules, you will be desified, 244 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:23,720 Speaker 1: and especially right now in the war, we see the 245 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 1: whole world sees no rules. The economy of our country 246 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 1: is destroyed, is big drama for all population, not just 247 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 1: in the whole country. Also a big drama in uh 248 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 1: in the capital of Ukraine, is big drama for everyone. 249 00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 1: From forty million people who live in Ukraine, a lot 250 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 1: of millions of refugees uh try to find their new homes. 251 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 1: People doesn't have a job right now, economy doesn't work, 252 00:14:56,360 --> 00:15:02,160 Speaker 1: and right now they every day die people, civilians. And 253 00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 1: I talked many times this war, this war since less 254 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 1: war is genocide of Ukrainian population because our city is destroyed. 255 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:19,360 Speaker 1: I talking about Mario Hartkieve, Erney in other and other 256 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 1: cities which actually destroyed. And it's it's a big drama. 257 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 1: Metallic Clio, the Mayor of Kiev with us today. We 258 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 1: are so glad to get a sense of what's going on, 259 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 1: but also horrified by what you talk about. How much 260 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 1: will it cost to rebuild the Kiev of old? Actually 261 00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:47,239 Speaker 1: we have redtail is a huge impact for our economy, 262 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:50,520 Speaker 1: a lot of people job less, A big part of 263 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 1: the people advocate to the safe part of the city. 264 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:57,880 Speaker 1: We have more than two hundred buildings. We were totally destroyed. 265 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:02,720 Speaker 1: They destroyed all in structure. To rebuild the buildings. I 266 00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 1: guess it's not so big money. It's around the hundred 267 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 1: million US dollar, But we lose the money in a 268 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 1: budget and our i CD we guesses around the one 269 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:20,320 Speaker 1: one have billion US dollar. What our budget doesn't get 270 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 1: they don't begin and and uh also I told you 271 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 1: about their numbers right now, but we don't know how 272 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 1: long will be the war and how much this would 273 00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 1: be cost in the next couple of weeks, maybe months, 274 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 1: maybe years, mayor this is a delicate question. We hear 275 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:48,960 Speaker 1: about forty of the businesses in Kieva have reopened. Some 276 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 1: people are trying to come back to their homeland. How 277 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 1: many people do you expect what proportion of people do 278 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:58,560 Speaker 1: you expect not to return because of the threat and 279 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 1: because of the war, people is afraid and right now 280 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 1: that people ask me as a general manager of hometown, 281 00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:13,199 Speaker 1: we have to come and not we stay in in 282 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 1: other places. I tell to everyone right now we can't 283 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 1: guarantee the safety in in capital. Just a week ago 284 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 1: the Russian record alleged in buildings in hometown and the 285 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:33,960 Speaker 1: five civilians is dead, a lot of injured. By the ways, 286 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 1: um more hundred people, two hundred citizens of hometown is 287 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:46,840 Speaker 1: dead and four children. Right Mary Klitchko, one final question, 288 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,880 Speaker 1: if we could, what weapons do you need right now 289 00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:53,440 Speaker 1: from the Allies and from the United States, if you're 290 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:58,359 Speaker 1: afraid of further missile attacks again on symbolic Ukraine. What 291 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:03,440 Speaker 1: is the material you need now? We have to cover 292 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 1: this air above our heads, but we need have weapons. 293 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 1: I want to say depends the weapon because because we 294 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 1: defend our country. I'm not military, I'm not the officer 295 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:22,720 Speaker 1: of military forces. That's why I can't give you exactly 296 00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 1: names what we need, what we need, but we need 297 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 1: the weapon definitely because we stay in strong against the 298 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 1: strongest army the world, the Russian's army, and that's why 299 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 1: it's uh will be not enoughly and we want to 300 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 1: say sank so much to the the United States to support 301 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 1: your brains were important. Mayor, thank you so much for 302 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:51,440 Speaker 1: joining Bloomberg this morning Metallic Disco. Here's the mayor of Keep. 303 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:01,399 Speaker 1: Can we continue that conversation and the Troit dearborn in 304 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:05,360 Speaker 1: autos with John Lawler, chief executive officer Ford Motor, who 305 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 1: has tattooed to is Iowa brain that you need to 306 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:11,200 Speaker 1: be in a Ford pickup truck to go from Ames, 307 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:13,919 Speaker 1: Iowa down to des Moine, Iowa. That's the way you 308 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 1: do it in the midwest of this country, John, can 309 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 1: you sell a new ninety dollar fully loaded electric pickup 310 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:27,400 Speaker 1: truck on the East and the West coasts of this nation. Absolutely? 311 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:32,199 Speaker 1: In fact are early reservations and orders are highly skewed 312 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:36,640 Speaker 1: towards the California and the East coast. So absolutely. Now 313 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 1: one other thing to point out. We do have high 314 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 1: end pickup trucks um in the price rains that you 315 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 1: talked about, but we also have the starting series at 316 00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:48,439 Speaker 1: around forty dollars, so you know, we've made this vehicle 317 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 1: affordable for um our commercial customers and as well as 318 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:55,480 Speaker 1: those that would want to enter into it at the 319 00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:59,040 Speaker 1: entry level series. What is the torque issue it came out. Now, 320 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 1: this is a little bit engineering and it's away from 321 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:04,440 Speaker 1: the financial side of Ford Motor. But what people are 322 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 1: saying is this thing can't pull like the other electric vehicles. 323 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 1: You're in those meetings with your Knox engineering degree, help 324 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:17,879 Speaker 1: us with that. Is a torque there? Yes, this truck 325 00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:21,840 Speaker 1: is fully capable. It's build Ford Tough, right. It has 326 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:24,680 Speaker 1: all the capabilities we see you need in a pickup truck. 327 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:27,159 Speaker 1: It has the horse power, it has the payload, and 328 00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:30,360 Speaker 1: it does have the towing. So UM we feel very 329 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,480 Speaker 1: confident this this truck will meet our customers and needs 330 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:37,919 Speaker 1: and it will represent Ford Tough as we UM have 331 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 1: for many years with our F series John. That might 332 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,679 Speaker 1: be the look forward. The look now, though, is beset 333 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,000 Speaker 1: by a lot of supply chain issues which definitely were 334 00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 1: weighing on some of the supplies that you are getting 335 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:52,320 Speaker 1: in terms of some of your automobiles in the first quarter. 336 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:56,240 Speaker 1: Going forward, you maintained your guidance though, even though you 337 00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:59,640 Speaker 1: have seen production fall short of where you were expecting. 338 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 1: How can that be? Well, you know, if you look 339 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 1: at the first quarter, we had incredible demand for our products, 340 00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:09,159 Speaker 1: all of our new products in fact, the Broncho, the 341 00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:12,960 Speaker 1: Broncos Sport, the new Maverick, and then our electric fields, Machi, 342 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:16,720 Speaker 1: the Transit now the incredible f one fifty Lightning. So 343 00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:20,199 Speaker 1: we see very strong demand for our products. Now in 344 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 1: the first quarter, we were disrupted by the modules um 345 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 1: that we're constrained due to the chip crisis. We resolved 346 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 1: many of those. We do see rate and flow of 347 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:34,439 Speaker 1: chips or the availability of chips improving as we go 348 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:37,480 Speaker 1: through the second half, and we're seeing great traction on 349 00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 1: our forward plus plans. So improving chips uh great traction 350 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,359 Speaker 1: our forward plus plan in an increasing demand, in very 351 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 1: high demand, and we see our volumes up this year 352 00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,439 Speaker 1: versus last year ten to fift and that gives us 353 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:53,160 Speaker 1: confidence in reaffirming our guidance of eleven and a half 354 00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 1: to twelve and a half adjusted EBIT for the year. John, 355 00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:58,360 Speaker 1: how much do you expect to raise prices on your 356 00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:00,960 Speaker 1: Ford automobiles this year even the fact that demand is 357 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 1: to robust and supplies are still constrained. Well, we've we've 358 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 1: taken pricing this year, and we are an inflationary environment. 359 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,640 Speaker 1: The pricing that we have taken has stuck and we'll 360 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:15,080 Speaker 1: continue to manage that. Um you know, you'll you'll probably 361 00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:19,240 Speaker 1: see if inflationary pressures continue, commodity prices continue to increase, 362 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:23,080 Speaker 1: you'll see in additional price increases. But the other thing 363 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:25,920 Speaker 1: that we're doing is we're also focused on costs. Is 364 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 1: in an inflationary environment, you have to manage both ends, 365 00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 1: and so we're laser focused on increasing productive productivity and 366 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:36,440 Speaker 1: driving efficiencies through every line item of our income statement. John, 367 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:38,199 Speaker 1: I want and I don't want to get you in 368 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 1: trouble with your general counsel, but I got to ask 369 00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 1: you this question. Full disclosure, folks. I grew up in 370 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,840 Speaker 1: a Ford family and my you you either had a 371 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 1: Ford or a GM, That's all there was to it. 372 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:51,639 Speaker 1: And my father had the original Bronco built Ford Tough 373 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,440 Speaker 1: was made in nineteen seventy nine. You guys are run 374 00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:57,399 Speaker 1: with that forever. I've had the honor of talking to 375 00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: Bill Ford about it. The fact is Elon Musk thinks 376 00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:06,719 Speaker 1: he has built Tesla Tough. How does Tesla deal with 377 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 1: your Ford? Pick up? With Mary Silverado in the forty 378 00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:14,000 Speaker 1: seven other e vs out there that have a history 379 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 1: of Tough, We've got the iconic brand. We have f 380 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,520 Speaker 1: one fifty. It's the number one selling vehicle in the US. 381 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:25,320 Speaker 1: We know what customers need, We know what Ford tough means. 382 00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:27,960 Speaker 1: What are the What are the customers telling you, Johnny, 383 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,119 Speaker 1: I don't mean to interrupt, this is too important. What 384 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:34,440 Speaker 1: are the customers telling you they want? Is a purchase 385 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:39,800 Speaker 1: differentiator right now over Tesla. When you look at our product, 386 00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,480 Speaker 1: we continue to make sure that it has the capability, 387 00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,359 Speaker 1: it's a tool, it has pro power on board, it 388 00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:49,360 Speaker 1: has all of the capabilities I talked about earlier. They 389 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 1: want that, plus they also want the amenities that you 390 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,920 Speaker 1: get with an electric vehicle that we provide the charging. 391 00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:58,800 Speaker 1: That's a tool, that's an enhancement for them. So they're 392 00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:00,960 Speaker 1: coming to us and saying they want the room, they 393 00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:04,880 Speaker 1: want the capabilities, and they want the every the benefit 394 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:08,639 Speaker 1: you get from having an EV power train. So customers 395 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:11,919 Speaker 1: want that benefit of you know, a clean emissions and 396 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,760 Speaker 1: everything else you get with the EV, along with no 397 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:17,879 Speaker 1: compromises to what you would expect from a Ford f 398 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,800 Speaker 1: one fifty, and we're delivering that hight John, great to 399 00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:22,480 Speaker 1: can't shop to hear from you said thanks for beam 400 00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:24,400 Speaker 1: with this this morning, John, Lord of that they fold 401 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:29,160 Speaker 1: Mota s S. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks 402 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,520 Speaker 1: for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to ten 403 00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:37,080 Speaker 1: am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television each 404 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:40,919 Speaker 1: day from six to nine am for insight from the 405 00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:46,120 Speaker 1: best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. And subscribe 406 00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:51,120 Speaker 1: to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, 407 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,440 Speaker 1: and of course on the terminal. I'm Tom Keene and 408 00:24:54,560 --> 00:25:01,240 Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg. Love Me Too.