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Speaker 2: We did have a four point eight four point seven
Speaker 2: magnitude tremor near White House Station, New Jersey. That's according
Speaker 2: to the US Geological Survey.
Speaker 3: That's the Bloomberg reporting.
Speaker 2: Brendon Sapienza joins us Bloomberg Deputy team leader for the
Speaker 2: US International Breaking News. Brandon, what do we have on this?
Speaker 2: I mean, we don't get earthquakes every day here in
Speaker 2: New York metro area. What do we know so far?
Speaker 4: So no damage has been reported by New Jersey and
Speaker 4: New York. Both the Governor of New Jersey and New
Speaker 4: York have been briefed. Mayor Adams has been briefed, and
Speaker 4: so far there's nothing to report as far as any
Speaker 4: catastrophic damage, which is good, especially from your city with
Speaker 4: our subways.
Speaker 2: Well, how about this, FAA says ground stop at JFK
Speaker 2: and Newark Airports. That's Bloomberg News reporting. Come across the terminal,
Speaker 2: So it's something. It's something I guess now.
Speaker 5: It's New Jersey known for its geological activity.
Speaker 4: Well, the last few earthquakes that I actually have been
Speaker 4: felt in New York have centered in the New Jersey
Speaker 4: Pennsylvania area, so it's certainly not the most uncommon thing
Speaker 4: for it to happen there. But just an earthquake in
Speaker 4: general is a sort of unnatural phenomenon.
Speaker 6: See, it is your fault, but if I were if.
Speaker 2: My plane is delayed because of a four point seven
Speaker 2: little tremor, if I'm sitting on the tarmac and JFK,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna be upset.
Speaker 6: If I'm sitting on a tarmac and JFK and I
Speaker 6: feel the ground rumble, I'm freaking out. Okay, So there's
Speaker 6: that too. Also, can you put into perspective sort of
Speaker 6: the reverberations felt in New York, Like I think that's
Speaker 6: like the first time I felt like little tremors like
Speaker 6: over time that were like a couple seconds. But this
Speaker 6: was very different and lived in New York my entire life.
Speaker 4: So the epicenter of the earthquake was actually a very
Speaker 4: low in the ground. It was only a kilometer down
Speaker 4: which is very unique in the fact that you will
Speaker 4: feel it more the shallower above ground that it is,
Speaker 4: and in this case it was one kilometer. They've felt
Speaker 4: it even in Boston, so you could feel quite far
Speaker 4: depending on how low in the ground it is. Usually
Speaker 4: they're much lower, especially in places where it's more common
Speaker 4: for earthquakes to be felt.
Speaker 5: Do you remember what was the last earthquake that we
Speaker 5: had in this area on the east. That was the
Speaker 5: one in Washington around Virginia that closed the Washington Monument
Speaker 5: In fact.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a number of years ago now at least.
Speaker 5: And the National Cathedral also had to be closed because they.
Speaker 6: Were you know, did you look that up or did
Speaker 6: you know this?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 5: I knew I was here was the last time the
Speaker 5: building shook?
Speaker 2: So all right, So Brandon, what's what an official Sayinger,
Speaker 2: I mean, do we expect after shock shourney that type?
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 6: Well, okay, you liveing in California. That's why this is
Speaker 6: like nothing free. He's so skeptical, He's like, who care
Speaker 6: you guys, you know, suck it up. But well, yeah, exactly.
Speaker 6: But what have we heard from, say the governor, the mayor,
Speaker 6: any word from Jersey officials.
Speaker 4: So actually, we just got right before I came on,
Speaker 4: we just got an emergency alert from New York City
Speaker 4: that residents are still advised to remain indoors. So I
Speaker 4: guess the possibility of after shocks is still there. New
Speaker 4: Jersey activated their State Operations Emergency Management Unit, so I
Speaker 4: guess the possibility is still there. It's unclear though for now,
Speaker 4: but right now everything seems to be okay.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 6: Also, I think Kathy Holkle was talking that they're going
Speaker 6: to be assessing the damage, but the FAA is saying
Speaker 6: groundstop at JFKN Nework Airports. I mean, I don't know
Speaker 6: where the guardy is and all of that, but so
Speaker 6: I think we're definitely looking up forward.
Speaker 3: To that this is Queen's we can take it.
Speaker 6: I guess that's true. You think Newark would be used
Speaker 6: to it also, But again I just point back to
Speaker 6: Michael McKee that two point five to five point four
Speaker 6: is often felt but only causes minor damage, and that
Speaker 6: estimated number of them each year is five hundred thousands.
Speaker 6: So to your point, like, maybe we can handle it,
Speaker 6: Maybe it's okay, Brandon.
Speaker 4: Yeah, the thing you have to worry about is a
Speaker 4: lot of New York City building codes for good reason,
Speaker 4: aren't meant to deal with earthquakes, because it's just such
Speaker 4: an uncommon thing. So it'll be interesting to see how
Speaker 4: the older buildings really hold up with the shaking.
Speaker 6: And this is the point about California is like you
Speaker 6: guys are prep for this, yes, like we're not. Yes,
Speaker 6: it's the same way that like we can do snow,
Speaker 6: but Florida can't. Like it's like we're just not used
Speaker 6: to certain things. So be interesting to see how that
Speaker 6: shakes out.
Speaker 5: Yes, John, I would point out that yesterday's storm had
Speaker 5: a far bigger impact down trees, an individual killed in
Speaker 5: Rye from a falling tree, and power outages as well.
Speaker 5: So put it all in, come.
Speaker 2: We've got some plenty of weather related issues here.
Speaker 6: And remember the whole like eclipse thing that's gonna happen
Speaker 6: Monday pretty soon, the.
Speaker 2: Low Yanke fraud, the Yankees push their game back from
Speaker 2: like two o'clock six o'clock. The world's just going nuts here. Brandon,
Speaker 2: thank you very much for joining us. Brandon's Sepien's a
Speaker 2: Bloomberg deputy team leader for US and International breaking news
Speaker 2: in this issue.
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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Labored nonfarm payroll numbers that came in today much better
Speaker 2: and expected. Jonny Biley joins US here, chief workforce analyst
Speaker 2: at Employberg. She joins US Live foreund Our Bloomberg Interactive
Speaker 2: Brookers Studio. So that's a good thing, Jony. I guess
Speaker 2: it's just anyway you look at it, a really solid
Speaker 2: jobs number today, What do you take of it?
Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, it definitely exceeded all expectations, you know,
Speaker 7: across the board. Yeah, I thought it would be a
Speaker 7: pretty good job report, but I didn't think it was
Speaker 7: going to start with a three in front of it.
Speaker 7: When you break down the numbers, though, you will see
Speaker 7: obviously most of this job growth continues to come from
Speaker 7: the government sector, the healthcare sector, and leisure and hospitality,
Speaker 7: and so those sectors have really been performing the best
Speaker 7: over you know, the last year, you know, certainly even
Speaker 7: into two years there are some other sectors though that
Speaker 7: that are a little bit more challenged and we're not
Speaker 7: seeing that growth, you know, come across. And so I'll
Speaker 7: be looking over the next few months, are we going
Speaker 7: to start to see growth back in like manufacturing, which
Speaker 7: was flat. The industry that I'm in is the temporary
Speaker 7: staffing industry. I'm also the chair of the American Staffing Association.
Speaker 7: So really look at that sector across the board of
Speaker 7: what's happening, and that sector hasn't added jobs really in
Speaker 7: about two years, so we've seen decline. So though that
Speaker 7: headline number is really strong, it's.
Speaker 6: Not good things you're thinking about.
Speaker 7: Yeah, like when you dig into it, it's it's not robust.
Speaker 6: Across the world, it does feel like a lot of
Speaker 6: the conversation is now centered around immigration and how immigration
Speaker 6: has actually provided a lot of workers and that's why
Speaker 6: we keep growing so strongly. In your research, what do
Speaker 6: you see in that?
Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, I was looking at some of the
Speaker 7: immigration numbers, and when you look at our overall labor
Speaker 7: labor force, immigrants make up about eighteen percent of the
Speaker 7: labor force. Rome it has grown, I think it grew
Speaker 7: in the early two thousands for many years the pandemic,
Speaker 7: of course, you know, everything kind of shut down, but
Speaker 7: we're starting to see those numbers tick up as well.
Speaker 7: So the demand there is really though for skilled workers.
Speaker 2: Yeah. So, I mean Torsten Slock, who is the chief
Speaker 2: economist at Apollo Global. He was out with a really
Speaker 2: cool chart today right after the data came out foreign
Speaker 2: born workers contributing to labor force growth. And over the
Speaker 2: last two months there's been actually been a net decline
Speaker 2: in native worn workers. Uh with this data set, and
Speaker 2: all of it has come from foreign born workers. So
Speaker 2: it's certainly it's kicking into the labor force. What do
Speaker 2: you see on this, like in your business the temporary
Speaker 2: stuff and where are you seeing that and how have
Speaker 2: the trends change there?
Speaker 7: Yeah, so when it's interesting, I follow his work. Employee
Speaker 7: Bridge is owned by Apollo, so we look. We look
Speaker 7: closely at his data every morning. I get his emails.
Speaker 7: But I you know, what we see in our business
Speaker 7: is employee Bridge really provides staffing for supply chain, so manufacturing, logistics,
Speaker 7: you know, transportation. We staff a lot in call centers.
Speaker 7: There has been you know, certainly a softening in those
Speaker 7: sectors over the last few years. The the hot topic sometimes,
Speaker 7: you know, in in those types of jobs is of
Speaker 7: course we're always focused on placing documented works and that
Speaker 7: is extremely important, but there is a challenge I think
Speaker 7: in some of the lower skilled jobs where you might
Speaker 7: run into, you know, some employers that aren't following all
Speaker 7: of the guidelines. But we are seeing demands start to
Speaker 7: come back. In transportation, in logistics, call center, customer service,
Speaker 7: all of those jobs are coming back and really strong,
Speaker 7: you know, still strong wages across the board in those areas.
Speaker 6: Do you get the sense that how has employer behavior
Speaker 6: over the last few years changed, and that how has
Speaker 6: that changed the temp landscape because usually maybe you'd lay
Speaker 6: people off and then get tempts back in order to
Speaker 6: see if the demand was going to be there. Has
Speaker 6: that now changed a little bit?
Speaker 7: Well, I think employers are still wanting flexible workforce. They
Speaker 7: use temporary labor certainly to ramp up and ramp down.
Speaker 7: I think it's why we've seen the sector really been hit.
Speaker 8: The hardest over the last two years.
Speaker 7: As employers when they go to cut back, they don't
Speaker 7: want to cut their permanent employees, so they will let
Speaker 7: the temporary workers go go first. But right now, we're
Speaker 7: seeing a lot of optimism. They're talking about hiring and
Speaker 7: ramping up, and so maybe we really did have that
Speaker 7: soft landing where where now things will start to stabilize
Speaker 7: and we'll see that employers will add not only to
Speaker 7: their permanent payrolls but also to temporary staffing and flexible
Speaker 7: workforce models.
Speaker 2: Do you see in your work at employeers? Do you
Speaker 2: see regionality here in terms of the labor market. I mean,
Speaker 2: is everybody just flocking to Texas and Florida and all
Speaker 2: that kind of stuff.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean it's it's strong though also you know
Speaker 7: in the North certainly if you look the automotive, you know, industry,
Speaker 7: and with the building of all the ev plants, there
Speaker 7: is a demand certainly for workers in manufacturing, even though
Speaker 7: we're not seeing it in the numbers today. Like you
Speaker 7: look at the manufacturing number, and of.
Speaker 6: Course manufacturing was pretty strong right earlier in the week.
Speaker 7: Yeah, and that was very optimistic. So I think we're
Speaker 7: going to start to see growth in the manufacturing sector
Speaker 7: and growth in manufacturing jobs certainly into this year, but
Speaker 7: even more so next year and beyond.
Speaker 3: Are you based in Florida.
Speaker 7: I do live in Florida, but I am a New
Speaker 7: Yorker at heart.
Speaker 2: Okay, I get that. Yes, I like to just get
Speaker 2: a sense of how is the labor market down there?
Speaker 2: I mean, is it just as crazy as the headline
Speaker 2: seemed to make a belief, because seems like here in
Speaker 2: New York, the story was everybody was walking down to Florida,
Speaker 2: even like our big Wall Street folks are heading down there.
Speaker 2: What's it like to be in South Florida these yas?
Speaker 7: Yeah, so yeah, I do live in South Florida. And
Speaker 7: there's this you know, strong demand a lot of course
Speaker 7: in leisure and hospitality. You know, you still see restaurants
Speaker 7: can't find enough workers. They won't even have all of
Speaker 7: their tables staffed, you know, and there's long wait lines.
Speaker 7: So the economy certainly is strong.
Speaker 6: People are moving there.
Speaker 7: Housing prices are continuing to still.
Speaker 3: Rise, Is that right?
Speaker 7: Yow?
Speaker 2: Because you know, just the anecdote in my town I've
Speaker 2: shared with these two friend of mine owns a restaurant
Speaker 2: locally here in New Jersey.
Speaker 3: For the first time in several years.
Speaker 2: He now is fully staffed because and he realized that
Speaker 2: you know, the bust people bust the table and wash
Speaker 2: the dishes. Those are undocumented workers, and for years, for
Speaker 2: the last several years, he hasn't had full hours, but
Speaker 2: now he's back to fully staffed. That so I don't
Speaker 2: know how that all.
Speaker 7: Yeah, Florida isn't there CYS. I know, maybe they will
Speaker 7: get there soon.
Speaker 6: So what's the next Like what's next on your plate?
Speaker 6: Like what's the next thing you're looking at and focusing on?
Speaker 7: Well, I think, you know, it was great to see
Speaker 7: the household survey today that we saw the growth in
Speaker 7: the labor you know, the size of labor force grew
Speaker 7: by four hundred and seventy seventy nine thousand, So that
Speaker 7: to me is a number I really watch. I'm always
Speaker 7: looking at the size of the workforce, labor participation. Do
Speaker 7: we have more people saying yes, I want to participate
Speaker 7: in the workforce. I do believe though, that employees are
Speaker 7: going to need to start focusing on training and upskilling workers.
Speaker 7: That is going to be very important because the jobs
Speaker 7: are changing so rapidly. You know, we see it with
Speaker 7: with AI the technology robotics in all sectors, not just
Speaker 7: in supply chain, but in all sectors, and so people
Speaker 7: are going to need to learn how to work with
Speaker 7: those skills.
Speaker 2: And where do they get work? Are they working hybrid still?
Speaker 2: That's that's the thing.
Speaker 7: Well, in supply chain they're back, they really are. But
Speaker 7: in most of the other professional and business service sectors
Speaker 7: they're in the office one day a week, sometimes fully remote.
Speaker 2: Really coming then it's pretty much TV.
Speaker 8: You guys are here every every day.
Speaker 6: Yes, not that Paul talks about that all the time.
Speaker 6: But if you work in supply and logistics, I know
Speaker 6: I'd be back in the office. So there you go.
Speaker 6: All right, Jenny, thanks a lot. We really appreciate it.
Speaker 6: So lovely to see you in person. Jenny Biley is
Speaker 6: chief workforced Analysts at employee Bridge, joining us here in
Speaker 6: the studio taking a look at these markets. Here the
Speaker 6: idea of US exceptionalism still kind of stand relatively strong.
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Speaker 6: So let's get right to what to do with these markets.
Speaker 6: At some point, you think that high yields are going
Speaker 6: to wind up putting the equity market. That doesn't seem
Speaker 6: to be the case. We're recouping some of those losses
Speaker 6: from yesterday. Grace Lee is senior portfolio manager for a
Speaker 6: Columbia thread Needle and she joins us now. Grace, when
Speaker 6: does the tenuere at four point three four percent hurt
Speaker 6: the equity market? For example?
Speaker 8: Morning, Alex, thanks for having me.
Speaker 9: I think today's news was actually a nice sigh of
Speaker 9: relief for all the equity market investors who've been pretty
Speaker 9: much wringing their hands all week on somewhat stronger economic data.
Speaker 8: But the age gains were less than I think.
Speaker 9: We're certainly very healthy, but not not anything to be
Speaker 9: alarmed about. And as far as where rates are, I
Speaker 9: think the bigger pictures that when you look at what
Speaker 9: happened in the first quarter, you did have rates going up,
Speaker 9: and you had or bond fields going up, and expectations
Speaker 9: of rate cuts actually coming down through the quarter, and
Speaker 9: still the market rallied. So I think we're kind of
Speaker 9: getting used to that growth is actually okay and the
Speaker 9: market can live with that and still power higher and
Speaker 9: broaden out, which I think is another key key point,
Speaker 9: and so I think it might be a good scenario
Speaker 9: all around Grace.
Speaker 2: If we are seeing some broadening out in the participation
Speaker 2: in the equity markets, what sectors would you be looking
Speaker 2: at outside of, you know, whatever the magnificent number is these.
Speaker 9: Days, Well, I think there's a lot of unmagnificent sectors
Speaker 9: and companies that people are starting to look at a
Speaker 9: little bit more. And again, going back to what happened
Speaker 9: in first quarter, it was a revival in things like
Speaker 9: energy and financials, which you know, I think it would
Speaker 9: people would be hard pressed to call those magnificent sectors typically,
Speaker 9: but if you look at where oil prices are, if
Speaker 9: you look at just the underperformance in a lot of
Speaker 9: the financials last year, these have a lot of catch
Speaker 9: up to play, even after some of the strength and
Speaker 9: first quarter. So I think looking outside of just technology,
Speaker 9: which we still like technology, but there are certainly other
Speaker 9: alternative ways to play those trends, as well as looking
Speaker 9: at what sectors really haven't participated.
Speaker 6: Well, let's go to energy for a second, because part
Speaker 6: of there was one narrative yesterday that talked about how
Speaker 6: the rally in oil and particularly Brent to ninety dollars
Speaker 6: was a trigger for the equity market to sell up.
Speaker 6: Do you buy that, and I mean, do you like
Speaker 6: think that's true? And then also do you buy energy
Speaker 6: at these levels here? Do you have to wait for
Speaker 6: a dip?
Speaker 9: Well, we're pretty fully invested in energy right now, and
Speaker 9: whether it's.
Speaker 8: It's a positive.
Speaker 9: I think people are clearly concerned about whether we'll see
Speaker 9: much higher gas prices, which could really you know, drive
Speaker 9: the inflation fears again. But for now it seems like
Speaker 9: everything again is still coexisting peacefully. Higher energy prices and
Speaker 9: still decent growth overall without overheating in the economy.
Speaker 3: Grace.
Speaker 2: We're going to soon shift gears back to earnings mode.
Speaker 2: We've got the JP Morgan next Friday, I guess, kicking
Speaker 2: off some of the really big earnings. What are you
Speaker 2: going to be looking for this quarter from corporate America?
Speaker 8: So I think there's a couple things to be looking
Speaker 8: for again.
Speaker 9: I think looking looking at where the economy is broadening
Speaker 9: out and seeing if if that can continue beyond magnificent
Speaker 9: seven big tech, as well as looking to see if
Speaker 9: the AI trade does still stay strong. I think you
Speaker 9: do need a little bit of that to continue for
Speaker 9: the markets to to still be happy, I guess. But
Speaker 9: then also you know, for for the big banks that
Speaker 9: start to report. I think there's two things. Obviously, the
Speaker 9: strength of the consumer. Uh, most of the CEOs have
Speaker 9: have consistently been saying that the consumer is very resilient
Speaker 9: and the credit trends are still benign.
Speaker 8: So we'll see if that continues.
Speaker 9: And then to see what what the banks themselves are
Speaker 9: saying about their interest income trends, given that rates might
Speaker 9: stay higher for longer and that might actually be a
Speaker 9: positive for them.
Speaker 6: Okay, so now it's official. Guys, did you guys feel
Speaker 6: you're in Boston, Grace, So you didn't feel this, but
Speaker 6: there was an earthquake right there was tremors. It just
Speaker 6: crossed the Bloomberg tremors felt throughout New York City region
Speaker 6: is building shake. We weren't crazy. So we were sitting
Speaker 6: in the radio studio, Grace, and we're all like, what
Speaker 6: is that? It felt like we were on some kind
Speaker 6: of like little roller coaster ride, and apparently it was real.
Speaker 6: We were not crazy that we.
Speaker 2: Thought that, Well, there's a bucket list thing for me.
Speaker 6: Yeah, well both things can be true as a bucket list.
Speaker 6: Tremors in a building in New York City, yep, done
Speaker 6: across that off all right, Grace, what else are you watching?
Speaker 6: You mentioned earning season? How are we positioned here? Like,
Speaker 6: how is a good way to play it? What else
Speaker 6: are you looking at?
Speaker 8: Well? I think.
Speaker 9: In the consumer sector there have been a lot of
Speaker 9: mixed signals recently. Some of the off cycle earnings reports
Speaker 9: have been a little bit more cautious and negative. And
Speaker 9: yet you know, when you talk to companies, you hear
Speaker 9: random data points like the auto companies and Detroit saying
Speaker 9: that they can't make enough six figure SUVs to keep
Speaker 9: in stock, there's so much demand out there, or that
Speaker 9: the cruise lines, we're seeing the people spending one thousand
Speaker 9: dollars a day on cabanas, and yet you see pullbacks
Speaker 9: at places like olive gardens. So really just trying to
Speaker 9: understand that dichotomy a little bit better. You know, maybe
Speaker 9: it's just consumers prioritizing certain wants over certain needs, or
Speaker 9: you know, it's I think they are irrational, and maybe
Speaker 9: we're just you know, we'll try and make a little
Speaker 9: bit more sense out of how healthy the consumer is
Speaker 9: and how much they can continue to keep this the
Speaker 9: economy going.
Speaker 2: Grace, how much do you I mean? AI was obviously
Speaker 2: a cute, huge theme in twenty twenty three continuing into
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. It's not just in Nvidia, it's broadening out.
Speaker 2: Is that something you guys at Columbia Thread you don't
Speaker 2: try to get exposure to And if so, how have
Speaker 2: you done it?
Speaker 9: Yes, So across the firm, we've been very focused on this,
Speaker 9: and you know, as I focus more on the value
Speaker 9: and income sectors, I do have to look for or
Speaker 9: more tangential ways to play. So it does fall into
Speaker 9: old economy technology companies like Dell and IBM, as well
Speaker 9: as some industrial companies Let's say Johnson Controls gets ten
Speaker 9: to fifteen percent of their revenue from data centers. In
Speaker 9: terms of building management systems, things like that. Utility companies
Speaker 9: like a Vistra Energy which has nuclear assets that are unregulated,
Speaker 9: that can really benefit from increases in power prices. So
Speaker 9: we do look for other ways to play. But you know,
Speaker 9: certainly a lot of my growth peers within the firm
Speaker 9: are very bullish on other on the more traditional AI
Speaker 9: ways to play.
Speaker 8: So the nvidious and those types of names.
Speaker 6: Yes, it's what I'm saying, the power players. I'm glad
Speaker 6: you brought that up. That was all the conversation down
Speaker 6: in Houston a couple of weeks ago that like, you
Speaker 6: get you need the data centers, you need the chips.
Speaker 6: You've got to have the power and those power providers,
Speaker 6: particularly nuclear, like really well set up for those data centers.
Speaker 6: What do you think we're going to hear about margins
Speaker 6: before we let you go? Because inflation seems to be
Speaker 6: I don't know, sticky, stubborn, like you pick the word.
Speaker 6: What do you think the margin conversation is going to be?
Speaker 8: Well? I think the margin conversation.
Speaker 9: I think while inflation is stubborn somewhat, managements are still
Speaker 9: very cautious on adding headcount, and if actually I think
Speaker 9: you've seen them, you still see announcements of headcount productions.
Speaker 9: So I think margins might actually turn out to be okay,
Speaker 9: and I would expect that we'll see decent earnings beats
Speaker 9: still with.
Speaker 8: More cautiously.
Speaker 2: All right, Grace, thanks so much for joining us.
Speaker 6: Really appreciated.
Speaker 2: Grace Lee, Senior portfolio Manager, Columbia thread Needle, joining us
Speaker 2: from Boston via the zoom Thing.
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Speaker 2: Thirty breaking earlier this morning was a pretty darn good
Speaker 2: jobs numbers coming out. Three hundred and three thousand additional
Speaker 2: jobs last month, pretty solid. Street was looking for like
Speaker 2: two seventeen, so really beat expectations. And when we do
Speaker 2: have jobs data, we'd like to check in with Tom
Speaker 2: Gimble Thomas a founder and CEO at lasal Network. Sound
Speaker 2: Network's one of the largest staff and companies out there,
Speaker 2: and they have their finger on the pulse what's happening
Speaker 2: out there in the labor market. And Tom, I'm gonna
Speaker 2: guess you're pretty bullsh here about the labor market out there.
Speaker 2: What'd you take away?
Speaker 3: It's party time time. The music hasn't stopped yet, is
Speaker 3: the message. Now, Let's be realistic and say when seventy
Speaker 3: over seventy thousand jobs right over over twenty percent of
Speaker 3: the jobs were government and I think we've always got
Speaker 3: to be wary of that and that's been a big
Speaker 3: part of these positive job gains. Now, listen if it
Speaker 3: wasn't three hundred and it was two hundred and thirty thousand,
Speaker 3: it would still be great.
Speaker 6: So Tom, I get it, Like I understand that we
Speaker 6: got to be careful about government jobs, but there were
Speaker 6: others too, And I'm just wondering how you see the
Speaker 6: mismatch right, like, do we have the right people for
Speaker 6: the right jobs? How do you manage it?
Speaker 3: I think there's a challenge. So that the big part
Speaker 3: came in healthcare and in service jobs, and then construction
Speaker 3: and government, and so I think we all know by
Speaker 3: the functionality of our government that the qualifications for those
Speaker 3: jobs aren't very high, so so anybody can do those apparently.
Speaker 3: And then when we look at construction, you need people
Speaker 3: who are willing to throw hammers and do the blue
Speaker 3: collar work, and we've got challenge with that. A lot
Speaker 3: of people don't want to do that. And you get
Speaker 3: into you know, the really the validation of where our
Speaker 3: immigration policies are both legal and illegal, of how to
Speaker 3: fill those jobs, and the same thing on the healthcare
Speaker 3: and the service side. So you know, what we're not
Speaker 3: seeing is a lot of white collar jobs in the
Speaker 3: private sector, and that's a big thing.
Speaker 2: That's a challenge So Tom, how about the wage increase
Speaker 2: about four point one percent? That still seems pretty solid
Speaker 2: to me.
Speaker 3: What do you make I'm surprised by that. However, at
Speaker 3: the same time, we're not seeing really inflation decline and
Speaker 3: everything's costing more. I mean, we're in a really the
Speaker 3: ven diagram for this will end up going in the
Speaker 3: Smithsonian because we have a really unique situation where the
Speaker 3: stock market keeps going strong, unemployment is low, wages are rising,
Speaker 3: inflation is too high, and at the same time, interest
Speaker 3: rates are higher than they have in years upon years,
Speaker 3: and nothing's stopping this. And that's just a really, really
Speaker 3: crazy situation that no one has an answer.
Speaker 6: But you know, it does raise the question for me
Speaker 6: that maybe there's the economy just stronger than we all think,
Speaker 6: and that we can add three hundred, two hundred and
Speaker 6: fifty thousand jobs. And that doesn't mean that we're overheating.
Speaker 6: It doesn't mean that the market is super tight, that
Speaker 6: we're just kind of growing. Is there any truth to that?
Speaker 3: As you see it, listen, the truth is self evident.
Speaker 3: So I agree with that. The real problem we have
Speaker 3: is the ancillary things that funnel that and what's happening
Speaker 3: is we've got. You know, why is the service sector
Speaker 3: and hospitality up because more people are traveling? How are
Speaker 3: people traveling when everything costs more? Because they're spending money
Speaker 3: in debts going up? We have we have the national
Speaker 3: debt which keeps increasing, and we have personal debt that
Speaker 3: keeps increasing, and that just means we're kicking the can forward,
Speaker 3: both individually and as a government. I can tell you
Speaker 3: that's not good. And eventually it's going to come up
Speaker 3: and somebody's going to have to pay the piper, whether
Speaker 3: it's on the consumer side and the government side. And
Speaker 3: so that's what's fueling this economy. When I see all
Speaker 3: the service sector jobs being had, so I get even
Speaker 3: on the construction side we have if it's home construction
Speaker 3: that's going on and there's new homes being built, that's
Speaker 3: because people are buying homes. How do you buy that?
Speaker 3: You buy that on debt with a mortgage and the
Speaker 3: financing and the rates are higher, and how do you
Speaker 3: do that? You got to raise wages to pay for that,
Speaker 3: which fuels inflation. You know, there's some real, real economic
Speaker 3: challenges that nobody wants to answer, and we don't have
Speaker 3: a leader to tell us about it.
Speaker 2: It seems like the and we're seeing some reporting here
Speaker 2: from Bloomberg the black unemployment rate increased to the highest
Speaker 2: since August of twenty twenty two. What do you think
Speaker 2: is behind that?
Speaker 3: Tom, I mean, I think you get into a little
Speaker 3: bit of the social science on this, but I think
Speaker 3: in a situation where we have two very different views
Speaker 3: on society, and I don't mean black versus white, I
Speaker 3: just mean on what's appropriate. I think you've got people
Speaker 3: of color who feel that they're left behind, and I
Speaker 3: think that you have a situation, whether it's right or wrong,
Speaker 3: due to education and due to job abilities and due
Speaker 3: to the jobs that they're offered. Is that when they're unemployed,
Speaker 3: is it because they're not getting looks or is it
Speaker 3: because they're quitting the workforce or quitting jobs because they're
Speaker 3: not happy with the roles and what they're doing. And
Speaker 3: it's something that we need some help. There needs to
Speaker 3: be a public private partnership when we see numbers like
Speaker 3: that to help change that narrative.
Speaker 8: Well.
Speaker 6: Also it feels like we need that when it comes
Speaker 6: to immigration also, I mean the surgeon in immigration, as
Speaker 6: long as it's legal, could be very helpful to fill
Speaker 6: some of those jobs that you were talking about, how
Speaker 6: do you talk about that with companies? What's the conversation
Speaker 6: around that.
Speaker 3: So there's two different types of immigration problems we have
Speaker 3: in this country, and I think where people want to
Speaker 3: default to is the southern border, which is a real issue. However,
Speaker 3: the challenge it's been going on for over a decade
Speaker 3: is the H one B visa problem. That is, people
Speaker 3: that we educate in this country we send back to
Speaker 3: other countries, their college educated They can't get into the
Speaker 3: country to do strong white collar jobs, and they go
Speaker 3: other places and they stimulate other economies where they could
Speaker 3: be doing that here and filling jobs that we don't
Speaker 3: have the talent and people to fulfill. So that's number one.
Speaker 3: Number two is on the illegal immigration issue, is there's
Speaker 3: the societal impact of what's going on, of the safety concerns,
Speaker 3: the measles cases in Chicago, and all the different things
Speaker 3: that are coming up in different cities. But you also
Speaker 3: have the ability to do the work. And you know,
Speaker 3: there's just a quiet little secret that people didn't talk about,
Speaker 3: and that was as long as illegal immigration was somewhat
Speaker 3: controlled for the past fifty years, one hundred years, we
Speaker 3: needed that everybody. Not everybody, A lot of people use
Speaker 3: it for cleaning ladies at the golf courses and the
Speaker 3: restaurants and the dishwashers that people came in it was easier,
Speaker 3: they didn't have to wait. People like paying people under
Speaker 3: the table. It didn't contribute to the taxes, but it
Speaker 3: solved work problems. And now that's gone because there's way
Speaker 3: too much illegal immigration and it can't be controlled at
Speaker 3: the southern border, and that creates huge societal conflict. And
Speaker 3: so we're dealing both with labor issues and societal issues
Speaker 3: at the same time, and that's why there's all these
Speaker 3: challenges that exist. Yep, very good. Tom.
Speaker 2: Really appreciate getting your thoughts here today. I always love
Speaker 2: checking in with you on jobs Day. Tom Gimble there
Speaker 2: giving us his thoughts here on the strong labor market.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty bonds.
Speaker 2: Boy, what an great time to talk to municipal bonds.
Speaker 2: Eric Kzatsky, senior minisial strategists for Bloomberg Intelligence, calling us
Speaker 2: from Princeton, New Jersey. Eric, what's new in a municipal
Speaker 2: bond business?
Speaker 4: Wait?
Speaker 5: Did you feel it? Eric? Did you feel it?
Speaker 1: Oh?
Speaker 10: My god, did we feel it? What like fifteen miles
Speaker 10: from the epicenter? Yeah, I mean it was so scary.
Speaker 10: I Eve hasn't even gotten lunch yet. He's been busy
Speaker 10: looking up rich Or scale.
Speaker 5: Now that means he must be scared.
Speaker 2: Folks, the folks on the folks on YouTube, the folks
Speaker 2: on YouTube. We wed you know, Eric Kazatski on with us,
Speaker 2: and sitting right behind Eric is our good friend Irad Jersey,
Speaker 2: also in Bloomberg Intelligence. There's their offices for Bloomberg Intelligence
Speaker 2: in Princeton, New Jersey, as Eric mentioned, literally like fifteen
Speaker 2: miles away from the epicenter. All right, Eric, so is
Speaker 2: there municipal bond angle here? I mean you can start
Speaker 2: issuing more municipal bonds. I'm half joking, but I felt
Speaker 2: like I had to go there.
Speaker 9: Yeah.
Speaker 10: Now, I think the good thing here in the takeaway
Speaker 10: is that there has never been a municipal bond default
Speaker 10: because of a natural disaster earthquakes included, so mini bond
Speaker 10: investors can rest assured this is going to be a
Speaker 10: non issue right now. So that's a good takeaway.
Speaker 6: Okay, well, I'm glad, I'm glad we worked that out.
Speaker 6: So that's quite good. All right, Okay, My favorite question
Speaker 6: is how's issuance? What's going on? Where we learned this week?
Speaker 10: You know what, issuance has been quite decent. I think
Speaker 10: we're up about thirty percent year over year. You know, look,
Speaker 10: tax time tends to be a little bit slower in
Speaker 10: the municipal market, and I don't think the pop in
Speaker 10: rates is doing anybody any favors. Any deals that we're
Speaker 10: sort of like waiting to come on the market, they
Speaker 10: might be held back just to see if rates settled
Speaker 10: down a little bit. But I think the latest statements
Speaker 10: by cash Carrie really sort of put you know, a
Speaker 10: little bit of fear into some investors that we're not
Speaker 10: going to get any cuts this year. So I do
Speaker 10: think that's going to be impactful as we get into
Speaker 10: the fall and closer to the election.
Speaker 2: So how are municipal bonds trading relative to treasuries these days?
Speaker 10: Most excellent? You know by comparison, Yeah, I mean we're
Speaker 10: we're out performing treasuries by two hundred basis points. So
Speaker 10: for those who are just solely focused on total return,
Speaker 10: it's been a really, really great year. You know, obviously
Speaker 10: we're still down a little bit, but you're getting the
Speaker 10: benefit of that carry in the municipal space, you know,
Speaker 10: from a yield stamp, and I think that's really where
Speaker 10: people should be focused, especially if you're concerned about higher taxes.
Speaker 10: On a comparable basis, right, tax equivalent yields for those
Speaker 10: people who are in the highest bracket in New York,
Speaker 10: you're picking up about three hundred basis points over same
Speaker 10: rated corporates, So you know, there really is a decent
Speaker 10: advantage to being in Meani's right.
Speaker 6: Now, where have we seen a lot of issuance in
Speaker 6: the last week?
Speaker 8: What caught your eye?
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean there's a lot of stuff on the pipeline.
Speaker 10: It's coming down in the healthcare space, which I think
Speaker 10: is super interesting, especially because we put out a report
Speaker 10: yesterday and like that tie in right there where we
Speaker 10: talked about how some of the biggest passive ETFs don't
Speaker 10: really have a lot of exposure in higher ed and
Speaker 10: in hospitals and in healthcare. So you know, I think
Speaker 10: that you know, as margins improve in that space, they
Speaker 10: are going to be better performing. As we get into
Speaker 10: the later stages of this year and into next year,
Speaker 10: and those passive products, they're just not going to participate
Speaker 10: in those returns.
Speaker 2: Talk to us about demand out there. If I coming
Speaker 2: out with a municipal bond nicely rated, what kind of
Speaker 2: demand am I going to see?
Speaker 10: You know what, people are tripping over themselves to buy
Speaker 10: up on the issue market. Yeah, I mean everything that's
Speaker 10: come has been well over subscribed. You know, California, I
Speaker 10: think they sold close to like two two and a
Speaker 10: half billion of bonds. When you get a bond issue
Speaker 10: of that size, that's that big. That's a lot of
Speaker 10: bonds for the market to take down, you know. So
Speaker 10: we did see a little bit of a spread softening
Speaker 10: with that, But I think again, as we sort of
Speaker 10: you know, get into the higher demand areas of the year,
Speaker 10: you know, May, June, July, you know, their spreads are
Speaker 10: going to revert a little bit.
Speaker 6: It wasn't there like a thing about sports and Travis
Speaker 6: Kelcey or something wanted to do something with tax increases
Speaker 6: to pay for the stadium. That didn't work?
Speaker 10: Did it not so much?
Speaker 7: Right?
Speaker 10: You know, Look, I've always been a sort of a
Speaker 10: questioning the fact that you know, taxpayers are put on
Speaker 10: the hook or asked to sort of levy themselves to
Speaker 10: keep their you know, hometown sports teams you know, stay
Speaker 10: put and no different. In Kansas City, they put a
Speaker 10: referendum oount. It was voted down by the you know,
Speaker 10: the taxpayers that they didn't want to increase taxes to
Speaker 10: pay for the stadium. You know, look, at the end
Speaker 10: of the day, are they really going to uproot the
Speaker 10: franchise to move? It's a big lift. The logistics are
Speaker 10: pretty tricky, especially with one that has a deep seated
Speaker 10: championship run like they've had in the last couple of years.
Speaker 10: So I think that the city is probably gonna come
Speaker 10: up with some tax incentives to keep them there. It
Speaker 10: just might not be on the shoulders of tax payers.
Speaker 2: All right, So what's on the calendar here that Alex
Speaker 2: should get excited about over them?
Speaker 3: I'm excited.
Speaker 6: Do you hear me engaging with moodies? I am working.
Speaker 6: I brought up sports. You guys are missing all these things.
Speaker 2: It took me like a year to get Matt Miller engaged,
Speaker 2: and you're much quicker.
Speaker 10: Than and then he left.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean he was.
Speaker 10: He was super excited about me, and he's Look, you know,
Speaker 10: we go back to the sort of those healthcare deals
Speaker 10: that are coming, they're going to have more spread attached
Speaker 10: to them. I like deals that I can look at
Speaker 10: and and sort of get into the weeds on the
Speaker 10: credit and that are just more interesting.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 10: Look, you can look at a triple A credit that's
Speaker 10: just like tax backed. It's okay, it's not that interesting
Speaker 10: from a credit analyst perspective. But things that are revenue based,
Speaker 10: you know, things that have you know, had a rough
Speaker 10: couple of years, you know, during the pandemic, like the
Speaker 10: healthcare sector. I think those are sort of recovery stories
Speaker 10: that will be more interesting to sort of pick through.
Speaker 6: All right, well, well what else you got? What should
Speaker 6: I be paying him? What am I gonna get excited
Speaker 6: about for next week? Tell me, tell me? Tell me.
Speaker 10: I think you got to get excited just about how
Speaker 10: much more yield UNI buyers are picking up over corporates,
Speaker 10: you know, as spreads compressing the corporate sector and UNI
Speaker 10: bonds you know, will trade softer over the next month
Speaker 10: as people sell them to pay their taxes. If you're
Speaker 10: a high at worth person and you're looking to pick
Speaker 10: up some yield, I think now's the time to be buying.
Speaker 2: All right, Very good, mister Kazatsky. He is our strategist
Speaker 2: down there in Princeton, kind of this epicenter almost of
Speaker 2: the earthquake activity in the Greater New Jersey. Or Kazarski
Speaker 2: senior municipal strategist for Bloomberg and in intelligence. So you know,
Speaker 2: it's interesting. You're getting nice yield there on a Texas
Speaker 2: Justible Basan is getting better yield today, you know, versus
Speaker 2: the last few years. But on a Texa JUSTI bass.
Speaker 2: If you live in a high tech state like like
Speaker 2: I do, uh, you know it makes a big deal.
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