WEBVTT - NY Area Quake, March Jobs Report 0:00:02.920 --> 0:00:10.799 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:10.840 --> 0:00:15.000 Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch US live weekdays at ten am 0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:17.520 Eastern on Apple car Playing and Broun Auto with the 0:00:17.520 --> 0:00:21.400 Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:24.000 or watch US live on YouTube. 0:00:24.880 --> 0:00:28.080 We did have a four point eight four point seven 0:00:28.120 --> 0:00:32.120 magnitude tremor near White House Station, New Jersey. That's according 0:00:32.159 --> 0:00:34.479 to the US Geological Survey. 0:00:34.479 --> 0:00:35.560 That's the Bloomberg reporting. 0:00:35.560 --> 0:00:38.360 Brendon Sapienza joins us Bloomberg Deputy team leader for the 0:00:38.479 --> 0:00:41.919 US International Breaking News. Brandon, what do we have on this? 0:00:41.960 --> 0:00:43.479 I mean, we don't get earthquakes every day here in 0:00:43.520 --> 0:00:45.519 New York metro area. What do we know so far? 0:00:46.320 --> 0:00:49.080 So no damage has been reported by New Jersey and 0:00:49.159 --> 0:00:51.519 New York. Both the Governor of New Jersey and New 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:54.720 York have been briefed. Mayor Adams has been briefed, and 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:57.640 so far there's nothing to report as far as any 0:00:57.760 --> 0:01:00.520 catastrophic damage, which is good, especially from your city with 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:01.240 our subways. 0:01:01.640 --> 0:01:04.920 Well, how about this, FAA says ground stop at JFK 0:01:05.080 --> 0:01:08.759 and Newark Airports. That's Bloomberg News reporting. Come across the terminal, 0:01:08.840 --> 0:01:11.759 So it's something. It's something I guess now. 0:01:11.640 --> 0:01:15.120 It's New Jersey known for its geological activity. 0:01:16.000 --> 0:01:20.040 Well, the last few earthquakes that I actually have been 0:01:20.040 --> 0:01:22.600 felt in New York have centered in the New Jersey 0:01:22.600 --> 0:01:25.560 Pennsylvania area, so it's certainly not the most uncommon thing 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:27.680 for it to happen there. But just an earthquake in 0:01:27.720 --> 0:01:30.360 general is a sort of unnatural phenomenon. 0:01:30.400 --> 0:01:33.919 See, it is your fault, but if I were if. 0:01:33.760 --> 0:01:36.399 My plane is delayed because of a four point seven 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:39.320 little tremor, if I'm sitting on the tarmac and JFK, 0:01:39.440 --> 0:01:40.279 I'm gonna be upset. 0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:42.399 If I'm sitting on a tarmac and JFK and I 0:01:42.440 --> 0:01:46.680 feel the ground rumble, I'm freaking out. Okay, So there's 0:01:46.720 --> 0:01:50.040 that too. Also, can you put into perspective sort of 0:01:51.080 --> 0:01:54.480 the reverberations felt in New York, Like I think that's 0:01:54.520 --> 0:01:57.240 like the first time I felt like little tremors like 0:01:57.320 --> 0:01:59.680 over time that were like a couple seconds. But this 0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:02.200 was very different and lived in New York my entire life. 0:02:02.680 --> 0:02:06.800 So the epicenter of the earthquake was actually a very 0:02:06.840 --> 0:02:08.880 low in the ground. It was only a kilometer down 0:02:09.040 --> 0:02:12.239 which is very unique in the fact that you will 0:02:12.320 --> 0:02:16.000 feel it more the shallower above ground that it is, 0:02:16.360 --> 0:02:19.000 and in this case it was one kilometer. They've felt 0:02:19.000 --> 0:02:22.160 it even in Boston, so you could feel quite far 0:02:22.400 --> 0:02:24.760 depending on how low in the ground it is. Usually 0:02:24.800 --> 0:02:27.440 they're much lower, especially in places where it's more common 0:02:27.480 --> 0:02:28.520 for earthquakes to be felt. 0:02:28.560 --> 0:02:31.160 Do you remember what was the last earthquake that we 0:02:31.320 --> 0:02:33.520 had in this area on the east. That was the 0:02:33.520 --> 0:02:39.880 one in Washington around Virginia that closed the Washington Monument 0:02:40.000 --> 0:02:40.720 In fact. 0:02:40.760 --> 0:02:43.200 Yeah, it's a number of years ago now at least. 0:02:43.280 --> 0:02:46.160 And the National Cathedral also had to be closed because they. 0:02:46.040 --> 0:02:47.600 Were you know, did you look that up or did 0:02:47.639 --> 0:02:47.960 you know this? 0:02:48.160 --> 0:02:48.240 No? 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:52.160 I knew I was here was the last time the 0:02:52.200 --> 0:02:52.960 building shook? 0:02:53.520 --> 0:02:57.440 So all right, So Brandon, what's what an official Sayinger, 0:02:57.480 --> 0:02:59.760 I mean, do we expect after shock shourney that type? 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:00.720 I don't know. 0:03:00.919 --> 0:03:03.520 Well, okay, you liveing in California. That's why this is 0:03:03.560 --> 0:03:06.680 like nothing free. He's so skeptical, He's like, who care 0:03:06.800 --> 0:03:10.160 you guys, you know, suck it up. But well, yeah, exactly. 0:03:10.240 --> 0:03:12.680 But what have we heard from, say the governor, the mayor, 0:03:12.760 --> 0:03:14.760 any word from Jersey officials. 0:03:14.840 --> 0:03:17.520 So actually, we just got right before I came on, 0:03:17.840 --> 0:03:20.239 we just got an emergency alert from New York City 0:03:20.600 --> 0:03:23.679 that residents are still advised to remain indoors. So I 0:03:23.680 --> 0:03:26.240 guess the possibility of after shocks is still there. New 0:03:26.320 --> 0:03:31.080 Jersey activated their State Operations Emergency Management Unit, so I 0:03:31.080 --> 0:03:34.160 guess the possibility is still there. It's unclear though for now, 0:03:34.200 --> 0:03:36.360 but right now everything seems to be okay. 0:03:36.320 --> 0:03:36.720 All right. 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:39.000 Also, I think Kathy Holkle was talking that they're going 0:03:39.040 --> 0:03:41.080 to be assessing the damage, but the FAA is saying 0:03:41.120 --> 0:03:44.080 groundstop at JFKN Nework Airports. I mean, I don't know 0:03:44.080 --> 0:03:46.560 where the guardy is and all of that, but so 0:03:46.680 --> 0:03:48.600 I think we're definitely looking up forward. 0:03:48.320 --> 0:03:50.960 To that this is Queen's we can take it. 0:03:51.600 --> 0:03:54.200 I guess that's true. You think Newark would be used 0:03:54.240 --> 0:03:56.560 to it also, But again I just point back to 0:03:56.560 --> 0:03:59.840 Michael McKee that two point five to five point four 0:04:00.400 --> 0:04:03.360 is often felt but only causes minor damage, and that 0:04:03.880 --> 0:04:07.480 estimated number of them each year is five hundred thousands. 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:09.480 So to your point, like, maybe we can handle it, 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:10.760 Maybe it's okay, Brandon. 0:04:11.200 --> 0:04:13.120 Yeah, the thing you have to worry about is a 0:04:13.120 --> 0:04:15.080 lot of New York City building codes for good reason, 0:04:15.200 --> 0:04:18.280 aren't meant to deal with earthquakes, because it's just such 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:20.440 an uncommon thing. So it'll be interesting to see how 0:04:20.480 --> 0:04:23.720 the older buildings really hold up with the shaking. 0:04:24.120 --> 0:04:26.080 And this is the point about California is like you 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:28.479 guys are prep for this, yes, like we're not. Yes, 0:04:28.600 --> 0:04:30.599 it's the same way that like we can do snow, 0:04:31.000 --> 0:04:33.279 but Florida can't. Like it's like we're just not used 0:04:33.279 --> 0:04:35.000 to certain things. So be interesting to see how that 0:04:35.040 --> 0:04:35.440 shakes out. 0:04:35.480 --> 0:04:38.000 Yes, John, I would point out that yesterday's storm had 0:04:38.040 --> 0:04:44.520 a far bigger impact down trees, an individual killed in 0:04:44.760 --> 0:04:47.800 Rye from a falling tree, and power outages as well. 0:04:47.920 --> 0:04:49.240 So put it all in, come. 0:04:49.200 --> 0:04:51.320 We've got some plenty of weather related issues here. 0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:54.560 And remember the whole like eclipse thing that's gonna happen 0:04:54.800 --> 0:04:55.839 Monday pretty soon, the. 0:04:55.839 --> 0:04:59.200 Low Yanke fraud, the Yankees push their game back from 0:04:59.240 --> 0:05:02.440 like two o'clock six o'clock. The world's just going nuts here. Brandon, 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:04.680 thank you very much for joining us. Brandon's Sepien's a 0:05:04.720 --> 0:05:09.039 Bloomberg deputy team leader for US and International breaking news 0:05:09.040 --> 0:05:09.960 in this issue. 0:05:10.080 --> 0:05:13.920 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch US Live 0:05:14.000 --> 0:05:17.520 weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 0:05:17.560 --> 0:05:20.359 Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 0:05:20.440 --> 0:05:23.560 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 0:05:23.920 --> 0:05:26.960 Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:05:28.000 --> 0:05:30.360 Labored nonfarm payroll numbers that came in today much better 0:05:30.400 --> 0:05:33.719 and expected. Jonny Biley joins US here, chief workforce analyst 0:05:34.080 --> 0:05:36.520 at Employberg. She joins US Live foreund Our Bloomberg Interactive 0:05:36.520 --> 0:05:40.200 Brookers Studio. So that's a good thing, Jony. I guess 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:42.120 it's just anyway you look at it, a really solid 0:05:42.240 --> 0:05:43.800 jobs number today, What do you take of it? 0:05:44.120 --> 0:05:47.800 Yeah, you know, it definitely exceeded all expectations, you know, 0:05:47.839 --> 0:05:50.640 across the board. Yeah, I thought it would be a 0:05:50.680 --> 0:05:52.760 pretty good job report, but I didn't think it was 0:05:52.800 --> 0:05:55.160 going to start with a three in front of it. 0:05:56.000 --> 0:05:58.479 When you break down the numbers, though, you will see 0:05:58.560 --> 0:06:02.479 obviously most of this job growth continues to come from 0:06:02.560 --> 0:06:07.840 the government sector, the healthcare sector, and leisure and hospitality, 0:06:08.120 --> 0:06:11.279 and so those sectors have really been performing the best 0:06:11.600 --> 0:06:15.640 over you know, the last year, you know, certainly even 0:06:15.640 --> 0:06:18.640 into two years there are some other sectors though that 0:06:18.640 --> 0:06:20.680 that are a little bit more challenged and we're not 0:06:20.720 --> 0:06:24.880 seeing that growth, you know, come across. And so I'll 0:06:24.880 --> 0:06:27.920 be looking over the next few months, are we going 0:06:27.960 --> 0:06:30.960 to start to see growth back in like manufacturing, which 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:34.760 was flat. The industry that I'm in is the temporary 0:06:35.360 --> 0:06:40.000 staffing industry. I'm also the chair of the American Staffing Association. 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:43.080 So really look at that sector across the board of 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:48.360 what's happening, and that sector hasn't added jobs really in 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:52.520 about two years, so we've seen decline. So though that 0:06:52.640 --> 0:06:55.000 headline number is really strong, it's. 0:06:54.880 --> 0:06:56.760 Not good things you're thinking about. 0:06:56.960 --> 0:06:59.359 Yeah, like when you dig into it, it's it's not robust. 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:01.480 Across the world, it does feel like a lot of 0:07:01.480 --> 0:07:05.320 the conversation is now centered around immigration and how immigration 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:08.000 has actually provided a lot of workers and that's why 0:07:08.040 --> 0:07:11.120 we keep growing so strongly. In your research, what do 0:07:11.160 --> 0:07:11.760 you see in that? 0:07:12.200 --> 0:07:13.520 Yeah, you know, I was looking at some of the 0:07:13.520 --> 0:07:16.640 immigration numbers, and when you look at our overall labor 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:22.560 labor force, immigrants make up about eighteen percent of the 0:07:22.680 --> 0:07:27.280 labor force. Rome it has grown, I think it grew 0:07:27.720 --> 0:07:30.880 in the early two thousands for many years the pandemic, 0:07:30.920 --> 0:07:34.440 of course, you know, everything kind of shut down, but 0:07:34.480 --> 0:07:39.080 we're starting to see those numbers tick up as well. 0:07:39.160 --> 0:07:43.040 So the demand there is really though for skilled workers. 0:07:43.240 --> 0:07:46.600 Yeah. So, I mean Torsten Slock, who is the chief 0:07:46.640 --> 0:07:49.640 economist at Apollo Global. He was out with a really 0:07:49.640 --> 0:07:52.560 cool chart today right after the data came out foreign 0:07:52.760 --> 0:07:55.640 born workers contributing to labor force growth. And over the 0:07:55.680 --> 0:07:59.160 last two months there's been actually been a net decline 0:07:59.240 --> 0:08:02.640 in native worn workers. Uh with this data set, and 0:08:02.720 --> 0:08:05.440 all of it has come from foreign born workers. So 0:08:05.480 --> 0:08:07.800 it's certainly it's kicking into the labor force. What do 0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:10.520 you see on this, like in your business the temporary 0:08:10.560 --> 0:08:13.480 stuff and where are you seeing that and how have 0:08:13.600 --> 0:08:14.720 the trends change there? 0:08:14.920 --> 0:08:19.320 Yeah, so when it's interesting, I follow his work. Employee 0:08:19.320 --> 0:08:23.280 Bridge is owned by Apollo, so we look. We look 0:08:23.360 --> 0:08:26.800 closely at his data every morning. I get his emails. 0:08:27.720 --> 0:08:30.480 But I you know, what we see in our business 0:08:30.600 --> 0:08:39.160 is employee Bridge really provides staffing for supply chain, so manufacturing, logistics, 0:08:39.800 --> 0:08:43.239 you know, transportation. We staff a lot in call centers. 0:08:44.280 --> 0:08:47.800 There has been you know, certainly a softening in those 0:08:47.840 --> 0:08:53.760 sectors over the last few years. The the hot topic sometimes, 0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:57.120 you know, in in those types of jobs is of 0:08:57.160 --> 0:09:01.200 course we're always focused on placing documented works and that 0:09:01.320 --> 0:09:05.520 is extremely important, but there is a challenge I think 0:09:05.520 --> 0:09:09.360 in some of the lower skilled jobs where you might 0:09:09.440 --> 0:09:13.600 run into, you know, some employers that aren't following all 0:09:13.679 --> 0:09:17.280 of the guidelines. But we are seeing demands start to 0:09:17.280 --> 0:09:22.559 come back. In transportation, in logistics, call center, customer service, 0:09:22.760 --> 0:09:26.160 all of those jobs are coming back and really strong, 0:09:26.280 --> 0:09:30.800 you know, still strong wages across the board in those areas. 0:09:30.920 --> 0:09:34.680 Do you get the sense that how has employer behavior 0:09:34.720 --> 0:09:37.559 over the last few years changed, and that how has 0:09:37.600 --> 0:09:41.560 that changed the temp landscape because usually maybe you'd lay 0:09:41.559 --> 0:09:44.080 people off and then get tempts back in order to 0:09:44.280 --> 0:09:46.560 see if the demand was going to be there. Has 0:09:46.600 --> 0:09:47.959 that now changed a little bit? 0:09:48.760 --> 0:09:54.960 Well, I think employers are still wanting flexible workforce. They 0:09:55.559 --> 0:09:59.040 use temporary labor certainly to ramp up and ramp down. 0:09:59.679 --> 0:10:02.959 I think it's why we've seen the sector really been hit. 0:10:02.880 --> 0:10:05.080 The hardest over the last two years. 0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:07.319 As employers when they go to cut back, they don't 0:10:07.320 --> 0:10:10.080 want to cut their permanent employees, so they will let 0:10:10.120 --> 0:10:14.000 the temporary workers go go first. But right now, we're 0:10:14.000 --> 0:10:17.679 seeing a lot of optimism. They're talking about hiring and 0:10:17.760 --> 0:10:20.160 ramping up, and so maybe we really did have that 0:10:20.320 --> 0:10:24.160 soft landing where where now things will start to stabilize 0:10:24.240 --> 0:10:27.360 and we'll see that employers will add not only to 0:10:27.400 --> 0:10:32.760 their permanent payrolls but also to temporary staffing and flexible 0:10:32.800 --> 0:10:33.720 workforce models. 0:10:33.960 --> 0:10:36.199 Do you see in your work at employeers? Do you 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:39.480 see regionality here in terms of the labor market. I mean, 0:10:39.520 --> 0:10:41.960 is everybody just flocking to Texas and Florida and all 0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:42.600 that kind of stuff. 0:10:42.840 --> 0:10:45.840 Yeah, I mean it's it's strong though also you know 0:10:46.040 --> 0:10:51.400 in the North certainly if you look the automotive, you know, industry, 0:10:51.480 --> 0:10:55.120 and with the building of all the ev plants, there 0:10:55.240 --> 0:10:59.840 is a demand certainly for workers in manufacturing, even though 0:10:59.880 --> 0:11:01.960 we're not seeing it in the numbers today. Like you 0:11:02.000 --> 0:11:03.439 look at the manufacturing number, and of. 0:11:03.360 --> 0:11:06.560 Course manufacturing was pretty strong right earlier in the week. 0:11:06.679 --> 0:11:09.200 Yeah, and that was very optimistic. So I think we're 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:12.880 going to start to see growth in the manufacturing sector 0:11:12.920 --> 0:11:17.840 and growth in manufacturing jobs certainly into this year, but 0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:20.120 even more so next year and beyond. 0:11:20.320 --> 0:11:21.560 Are you based in Florida. 0:11:21.720 --> 0:11:23.959 I do live in Florida, but I am a New 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:25.240 Yorker at heart. 0:11:25.160 --> 0:11:26.800 Okay, I get that. Yes, I like to just get 0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:29.120 a sense of how is the labor market down there? 0:11:29.400 --> 0:11:31.840 I mean, is it just as crazy as the headline 0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:33.880 seemed to make a belief, because seems like here in 0:11:33.880 --> 0:11:36.680 New York, the story was everybody was walking down to Florida, 0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:39.640 even like our big Wall Street folks are heading down there. 0:11:39.640 --> 0:11:41.240 What's it like to be in South Florida these yas? 0:11:41.280 --> 0:11:43.040 Yeah, so yeah, I do live in South Florida. And 0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:45.720 there's this you know, strong demand a lot of course 0:11:45.800 --> 0:11:49.520 in leisure and hospitality. You know, you still see restaurants 0:11:49.880 --> 0:11:52.840 can't find enough workers. They won't even have all of 0:11:52.880 --> 0:11:56.800 their tables staffed, you know, and there's long wait lines. 0:11:56.880 --> 0:11:59.080 So the economy certainly is strong. 0:11:59.120 --> 0:11:59.959 People are moving there. 0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:02.080 Housing prices are continuing to still. 0:12:01.920 --> 0:12:02.640 Rise, Is that right? 0:12:02.760 --> 0:12:03.000 Yow? 0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:05.560 Because you know, just the anecdote in my town I've 0:12:05.559 --> 0:12:07.960 shared with these two friend of mine owns a restaurant 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:08.920 locally here in New Jersey. 0:12:08.920 --> 0:12:10.440 For the first time in several years. 0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:13.200 He now is fully staffed because and he realized that 0:12:13.440 --> 0:12:15.439 you know, the bust people bust the table and wash 0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:18.040 the dishes. Those are undocumented workers, and for years, for 0:12:18.040 --> 0:12:20.679 the last several years, he hasn't had full hours, but 0:12:20.720 --> 0:12:22.760 now he's back to fully staffed. That so I don't 0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:23.440 know how that all. 0:12:23.559 --> 0:12:27.960 Yeah, Florida isn't there CYS. I know, maybe they will 0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:28.640 get there soon. 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:31.959 So what's the next Like what's next on your plate? 0:12:32.120 --> 0:12:33.960 Like what's the next thing you're looking at and focusing on? 0:12:34.440 --> 0:12:36.320 Well, I think, you know, it was great to see 0:12:36.360 --> 0:12:39.520 the household survey today that we saw the growth in 0:12:39.559 --> 0:12:42.400 the labor you know, the size of labor force grew 0:12:42.440 --> 0:12:45.880 by four hundred and seventy seventy nine thousand, So that 0:12:46.160 --> 0:12:48.920 to me is a number I really watch. I'm always 0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:53.080 looking at the size of the workforce, labor participation. Do 0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:56.079 we have more people saying yes, I want to participate 0:12:56.120 --> 0:13:00.640 in the workforce. I do believe though, that employees are 0:13:00.760 --> 0:13:05.280 going to need to start focusing on training and upskilling workers. 0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:08.199 That is going to be very important because the jobs 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:11.480 are changing so rapidly. You know, we see it with 0:13:11.480 --> 0:13:16.040 with AI the technology robotics in all sectors, not just 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:19.120 in supply chain, but in all sectors, and so people 0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:20.840 are going to need to learn how to work with 0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:21.680 those skills. 0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:24.040 And where do they get work? Are they working hybrid still? 0:13:24.280 --> 0:13:25.240 That's that's the thing. 0:13:25.520 --> 0:13:28.960 Well, in supply chain they're back, they really are. But 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:32.480 in most of the other professional and business service sectors 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:36.439 they're in the office one day a week, sometimes fully remote. 0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:40.079 Really coming then it's pretty much TV. 0:13:40.360 --> 0:13:41.600 You guys are here every every day. 0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:44.520 Yes, not that Paul talks about that all the time. 0:13:44.640 --> 0:13:46.960 But if you work in supply and logistics, I know 0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:49.640 I'd be back in the office. So there you go. 0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:51.640 All right, Jenny, thanks a lot. We really appreciate it. 0:13:51.640 --> 0:13:54.160 So lovely to see you in person. Jenny Biley is 0:13:54.240 --> 0:13:57.840 chief workforced Analysts at employee Bridge, joining us here in 0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:00.960 the studio taking a look at these markets. Here the 0:14:01.000 --> 0:14:04.720 idea of US exceptionalism still kind of stand relatively strong. 0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:11.040 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:14.480 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Afocarplay and Android outo 0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:17.480 with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you 0:14:17.559 --> 0:14:20.600 get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:14:22.240 --> 0:14:24.880 So let's get right to what to do with these markets. 0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:27.080 At some point, you think that high yields are going 0:14:27.120 --> 0:14:29.400 to wind up putting the equity market. That doesn't seem 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:31.600 to be the case. We're recouping some of those losses 0:14:31.640 --> 0:14:34.560 from yesterday. Grace Lee is senior portfolio manager for a 0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:38.160 Columbia thread Needle and she joins us now. Grace, when 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:41.320 does the tenuere at four point three four percent hurt 0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:42.800 the equity market? For example? 0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:46.240 Morning, Alex, thanks for having me. 0:14:47.400 --> 0:14:51.440 I think today's news was actually a nice sigh of 0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:55.240 relief for all the equity market investors who've been pretty 0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:58.960 much wringing their hands all week on somewhat stronger economic data. 0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:02.520 But the age gains were less than I think. 0:15:03.320 --> 0:15:07.040 We're certainly very healthy, but not not anything to be 0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:12.160 alarmed about. And as far as where rates are, I 0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:14.720 think the bigger pictures that when you look at what 0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:19.400 happened in the first quarter, you did have rates going up, 0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:25.160 and you had or bond fields going up, and expectations 0:15:25.160 --> 0:15:28.960 of rate cuts actually coming down through the quarter, and 0:15:29.120 --> 0:15:32.160 still the market rallied. So I think we're kind of 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:37.480 getting used to that growth is actually okay and the 0:15:37.520 --> 0:15:40.720 market can live with that and still power higher and 0:15:40.920 --> 0:15:44.840 broaden out, which I think is another key key point, 0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:49.160 and so I think it might be a good scenario 0:15:49.200 --> 0:15:50.480 all around Grace. 0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:53.400 If we are seeing some broadening out in the participation 0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:56.120 in the equity markets, what sectors would you be looking 0:15:56.120 --> 0:15:59.200 at outside of, you know, whatever the magnificent number is these. 0:15:59.160 --> 0:16:04.360 Days, Well, I think there's a lot of unmagnificent sectors 0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:07.600 and companies that people are starting to look at a 0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:11.160 little bit more. And again, going back to what happened 0:16:11.160 --> 0:16:14.640 in first quarter, it was a revival in things like 0:16:14.840 --> 0:16:18.840 energy and financials, which you know, I think it would 0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:22.720 people would be hard pressed to call those magnificent sectors typically, 0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:26.440 but if you look at where oil prices are, if 0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:28.960 you look at just the underperformance in a lot of 0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:33.520 the financials last year, these have a lot of catch 0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:36.400 up to play, even after some of the strength and 0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:40.760 first quarter. So I think looking outside of just technology, 0:16:40.800 --> 0:16:43.960 which we still like technology, but there are certainly other 0:16:44.280 --> 0:16:48.360 alternative ways to play those trends, as well as looking 0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:50.920 at what sectors really haven't participated. 0:16:51.080 --> 0:16:53.240 Well, let's go to energy for a second, because part 0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:56.520 of there was one narrative yesterday that talked about how 0:16:56.560 --> 0:16:59.960 the rally in oil and particularly Brent to ninety dollars 0:17:00.120 --> 0:17:02.520 was a trigger for the equity market to sell up. 0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:05.800 Do you buy that, and I mean, do you like 0:17:05.880 --> 0:17:08.600 think that's true? And then also do you buy energy 0:17:08.640 --> 0:17:10.320 at these levels here? Do you have to wait for 0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:10.760 a dip? 0:17:12.520 --> 0:17:18.120 Well, we're pretty fully invested in energy right now, and 0:17:18.680 --> 0:17:19.359 whether it's. 0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:20.800 It's a positive. 0:17:21.119 --> 0:17:24.359 I think people are clearly concerned about whether we'll see 0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:29.399 much higher gas prices, which could really you know, drive 0:17:29.440 --> 0:17:33.040 the inflation fears again. But for now it seems like 0:17:33.160 --> 0:17:38.680 everything again is still coexisting peacefully. Higher energy prices and 0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:44.000 still decent growth overall without overheating in the economy. 0:17:45.119 --> 0:17:45.399 Grace. 0:17:45.400 --> 0:17:48.680 We're going to soon shift gears back to earnings mode. 0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:52.080 We've got the JP Morgan next Friday, I guess, kicking 0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:53.920 off some of the really big earnings. What are you 0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:57.320 going to be looking for this quarter from corporate America? 0:17:59.000 --> 0:18:01.119 So I think there's a couple things to be looking 0:18:01.160 --> 0:18:02.359 for again. 0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:06.080 I think looking looking at where the economy is broadening 0:18:06.080 --> 0:18:12.600 out and seeing if if that can continue beyond magnificent 0:18:12.640 --> 0:18:16.640 seven big tech, as well as looking to see if 0:18:16.680 --> 0:18:21.080 the AI trade does still stay strong. I think you 0:18:21.200 --> 0:18:23.680 do need a little bit of that to continue for 0:18:23.760 --> 0:18:27.959 the markets to to still be happy, I guess. But 0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:30.399 then also you know, for for the big banks that 0:18:30.440 --> 0:18:33.280 start to report. I think there's two things. Obviously, the 0:18:33.320 --> 0:18:37.600 strength of the consumer. Uh, most of the CEOs have 0:18:37.600 --> 0:18:40.800 have consistently been saying that the consumer is very resilient 0:18:41.240 --> 0:18:43.120 and the credit trends are still benign. 0:18:43.600 --> 0:18:45.080 So we'll see if that continues. 0:18:45.119 --> 0:18:48.479 And then to see what what the banks themselves are 0:18:48.520 --> 0:18:52.800 saying about their interest income trends, given that rates might 0:18:52.880 --> 0:18:55.600 stay higher for longer and that might actually be a 0:18:55.640 --> 0:18:56.520 positive for them. 0:18:56.880 --> 0:18:58.840 Okay, so now it's official. Guys, did you guys feel 0:18:58.880 --> 0:19:00.919 you're in Boston, Grace, So you didn't feel this, but 0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:04.040 there was an earthquake right there was tremors. It just 0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:06.960 crossed the Bloomberg tremors felt throughout New York City region 0:19:07.040 --> 0:19:09.440 is building shake. We weren't crazy. So we were sitting 0:19:09.440 --> 0:19:11.600 in the radio studio, Grace, and we're all like, what 0:19:11.760 --> 0:19:13.480 is that? It felt like we were on some kind 0:19:13.480 --> 0:19:15.840 of like little roller coaster ride, and apparently it was real. 0:19:15.960 --> 0:19:17.120 We were not crazy that we. 0:19:17.080 --> 0:19:18.919 Thought that, Well, there's a bucket list thing for me. 0:19:20.240 --> 0:19:22.480 Yeah, well both things can be true as a bucket list. 0:19:23.000 --> 0:19:25.280 Tremors in a building in New York City, yep, done 0:19:25.760 --> 0:19:28.480 across that off all right, Grace, what else are you watching? 0:19:28.680 --> 0:19:32.679 You mentioned earning season? How are we positioned here? Like, 0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:35.440 how is a good way to play it? What else 0:19:35.440 --> 0:19:36.440 are you looking at? 0:19:37.400 --> 0:19:38.080 Well? I think. 0:19:39.560 --> 0:19:41.639 In the consumer sector there have been a lot of 0:19:41.760 --> 0:19:47.400 mixed signals recently. Some of the off cycle earnings reports 0:19:47.400 --> 0:19:51.520 have been a little bit more cautious and negative. And 0:19:51.600 --> 0:19:55.960 yet you know, when you talk to companies, you hear 0:19:56.920 --> 0:20:01.240 random data points like the auto companies and Detroit saying 0:20:01.280 --> 0:20:05.640 that they can't make enough six figure SUVs to keep 0:20:05.680 --> 0:20:08.560 in stock, there's so much demand out there, or that 0:20:08.880 --> 0:20:12.280 the cruise lines, we're seeing the people spending one thousand 0:20:12.320 --> 0:20:15.679 dollars a day on cabanas, and yet you see pullbacks 0:20:15.800 --> 0:20:19.359 at places like olive gardens. So really just trying to 0:20:19.440 --> 0:20:23.480 understand that dichotomy a little bit better. You know, maybe 0:20:23.480 --> 0:20:28.080 it's just consumers prioritizing certain wants over certain needs, or 0:20:29.240 --> 0:20:33.160 you know, it's I think they are irrational, and maybe 0:20:33.200 --> 0:20:36.040 we're just you know, we'll try and make a little 0:20:36.040 --> 0:20:39.840 bit more sense out of how healthy the consumer is 0:20:39.880 --> 0:20:42.359