1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,799 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch US live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple car Playing and Broun Auto with the 4 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:21,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 1: or watch US live on YouTube. 6 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 2: We did have a four point eight four point seven 7 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 2: magnitude tremor near White House Station, New Jersey. That's according 8 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:34,479 Speaker 2: to the US Geological Survey. 9 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:35,560 Speaker 3: That's the Bloomberg reporting. 10 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:38,360 Speaker 2: Brendon Sapienza joins us Bloomberg Deputy team leader for the 11 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:41,919 Speaker 2: US International Breaking News. Brandon, what do we have on this? 12 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:43,479 Speaker 2: I mean, we don't get earthquakes every day here in 13 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:45,519 Speaker 2: New York metro area. What do we know so far? 14 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 4: So no damage has been reported by New Jersey and 15 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:51,519 Speaker 4: New York. Both the Governor of New Jersey and New 16 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 4: York have been briefed. Mayor Adams has been briefed, and 17 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 4: so far there's nothing to report as far as any 18 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 4: catastrophic damage, which is good, especially from your city with 19 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 4: our subways. 20 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 2: Well, how about this, FAA says ground stop at JFK 21 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:08,759 Speaker 2: and Newark Airports. That's Bloomberg News reporting. Come across the terminal, 22 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:11,759 Speaker 2: So it's something. It's something I guess now. 23 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:15,120 Speaker 5: It's New Jersey known for its geological activity. 24 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:20,040 Speaker 4: Well, the last few earthquakes that I actually have been 25 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 4: felt in New York have centered in the New Jersey 26 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:25,560 Speaker 4: Pennsylvania area, so it's certainly not the most uncommon thing 27 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:27,680 Speaker 4: for it to happen there. But just an earthquake in 28 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 4: general is a sort of unnatural phenomenon. 29 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:33,919 Speaker 6: See, it is your fault, but if I were if. 30 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:36,399 Speaker 2: My plane is delayed because of a four point seven 31 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:39,320 Speaker 2: little tremor, if I'm sitting on the tarmac and JFK, 32 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:40,279 Speaker 2: I'm gonna be upset. 33 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 6: If I'm sitting on a tarmac and JFK and I 34 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:46,680 Speaker 6: feel the ground rumble, I'm freaking out. Okay, So there's 35 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 6: that too. Also, can you put into perspective sort of 36 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 6: the reverberations felt in New York, Like I think that's 37 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 6: like the first time I felt like little tremors like 38 00:01:57,320 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 6: over time that were like a couple seconds. But this 39 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 6: was very different and lived in New York my entire life. 40 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 4: So the epicenter of the earthquake was actually a very 41 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 4: low in the ground. It was only a kilometer down 42 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:12,239 Speaker 4: which is very unique in the fact that you will 43 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 4: feel it more the shallower above ground that it is, 44 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 4: and in this case it was one kilometer. They've felt 45 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 4: it even in Boston, so you could feel quite far 46 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 4: depending on how low in the ground it is. Usually 47 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 4: they're much lower, especially in places where it's more common 48 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 4: for earthquakes to be felt. 49 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 5: Do you remember what was the last earthquake that we 50 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 5: had in this area on the east. That was the 51 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 5: one in Washington around Virginia that closed the Washington Monument 52 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 5: In fact. 53 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a number of years ago now at least. 54 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:46,160 Speaker 5: And the National Cathedral also had to be closed because they. 55 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 6: Were you know, did you look that up or did 56 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:47,960 Speaker 6: you know this? 57 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 3: No? 58 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 5: I knew I was here was the last time the 59 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:52,960 Speaker 5: building shook? 60 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 2: So all right, So Brandon, what's what an official Sayinger, 61 00:02:57,480 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 2: I mean, do we expect after shock shourney that type? 62 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 3: I don't know. 63 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:03,520 Speaker 6: Well, okay, you liveing in California. That's why this is 64 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 6: like nothing free. He's so skeptical, He's like, who care 65 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 6: you guys, you know, suck it up. But well, yeah, exactly. 66 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 6: But what have we heard from, say the governor, the mayor, 67 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:14,760 Speaker 6: any word from Jersey officials. 68 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 4: So actually, we just got right before I came on, 69 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,239 Speaker 4: we just got an emergency alert from New York City 70 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:23,679 Speaker 4: that residents are still advised to remain indoors. So I 71 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,240 Speaker 4: guess the possibility of after shocks is still there. New 72 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:31,080 Speaker 4: Jersey activated their State Operations Emergency Management Unit, so I 73 00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 4: guess the possibility is still there. It's unclear though for now, 74 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 4: but right now everything seems to be okay. 75 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 2: All right. 76 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 6: Also, I think Kathy Holkle was talking that they're going 77 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 6: to be assessing the damage, but the FAA is saying 78 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 6: groundstop at JFKN Nework Airports. I mean, I don't know 79 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 6: where the guardy is and all of that, but so 80 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 6: I think we're definitely looking up forward. 81 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 3: To that this is Queen's we can take it. 82 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 6: I guess that's true. You think Newark would be used 83 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 6: to it also, But again I just point back to 84 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 6: Michael McKee that two point five to five point four 85 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:03,360 Speaker 6: is often felt but only causes minor damage, and that 86 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 6: estimated number of them each year is five hundred thousands. 87 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 6: So to your point, like, maybe we can handle it, 88 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 6: Maybe it's okay, Brandon. 89 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:13,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, the thing you have to worry about is a 90 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 4: lot of New York City building codes for good reason, 91 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:18,280 Speaker 4: aren't meant to deal with earthquakes, because it's just such 92 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 4: an uncommon thing. So it'll be interesting to see how 93 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:23,720 Speaker 4: the older buildings really hold up with the shaking. 94 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 6: And this is the point about California is like you 95 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:28,479 Speaker 6: guys are prep for this, yes, like we're not. Yes, 96 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:30,599 Speaker 6: it's the same way that like we can do snow, 97 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:33,279 Speaker 6: but Florida can't. Like it's like we're just not used 98 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 6: to certain things. So be interesting to see how that 99 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 6: shakes out. 100 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:38,000 Speaker 5: Yes, John, I would point out that yesterday's storm had 101 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 5: a far bigger impact down trees, an individual killed in 102 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:47,800 Speaker 5: Rye from a falling tree, and power outages as well. 103 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 5: So put it all in, come. 104 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 2: We've got some plenty of weather related issues here. 105 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 6: And remember the whole like eclipse thing that's gonna happen 106 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:55,839 Speaker 6: Monday pretty soon, the. 107 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 2: Low Yanke fraud, the Yankees push their game back from 108 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 2: like two o'clock six o'clock. The world's just going nuts here. Brandon, 109 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 2: thank you very much for joining us. Brandon's Sepien's a 110 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:09,039 Speaker 2: Bloomberg deputy team leader for US and International breaking news 111 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 2: in this issue. 112 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:13,920 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch US Live 113 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 114 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,359 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 115 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 116 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 117 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:30,360 Speaker 2: Labored nonfarm payroll numbers that came in today much better 118 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:33,719 Speaker 2: and expected. Jonny Biley joins US here, chief workforce analyst 119 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 2: at Employberg. She joins US Live foreund Our Bloomberg Interactive 120 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 2: Brookers Studio. So that's a good thing, Jony. I guess 121 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 2: it's just anyway you look at it, a really solid 122 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 2: jobs number today, What do you take of it? 123 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, it definitely exceeded all expectations, you know, 124 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 7: across the board. Yeah, I thought it would be a 125 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 7: pretty good job report, but I didn't think it was 126 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:55,160 Speaker 7: going to start with a three in front of it. 127 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:58,479 Speaker 7: When you break down the numbers, though, you will see 128 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:02,479 Speaker 7: obviously most of this job growth continues to come from 129 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:07,840 Speaker 7: the government sector, the healthcare sector, and leisure and hospitality, 130 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:11,279 Speaker 7: and so those sectors have really been performing the best 131 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 7: over you know, the last year, you know, certainly even 132 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 7: into two years there are some other sectors though that 133 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:20,680 Speaker 7: that are a little bit more challenged and we're not 134 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 7: seeing that growth, you know, come across. And so I'll 135 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 7: be looking over the next few months, are we going 136 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 7: to start to see growth back in like manufacturing, which 137 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 7: was flat. The industry that I'm in is the temporary 138 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 7: staffing industry. I'm also the chair of the American Staffing Association. 139 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 7: So really look at that sector across the board of 140 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:48,360 Speaker 7: what's happening, and that sector hasn't added jobs really in 141 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 7: about two years, so we've seen decline. So though that 142 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 7: headline number is really strong, it's. 143 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 6: Not good things you're thinking about. 144 00:06:56,960 --> 00:06:59,359 Speaker 7: Yeah, like when you dig into it, it's it's not robust. 145 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 6: Across the world, it does feel like a lot of 146 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 6: the conversation is now centered around immigration and how immigration 147 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:08,000 Speaker 6: has actually provided a lot of workers and that's why 148 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 6: we keep growing so strongly. In your research, what do 149 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 6: you see in that? 150 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, I was looking at some of the 151 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 7: immigration numbers, and when you look at our overall labor 152 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:22,560 Speaker 7: labor force, immigrants make up about eighteen percent of the 153 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 7: labor force. Rome it has grown, I think it grew 154 00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 7: in the early two thousands for many years the pandemic, 155 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 7: of course, you know, everything kind of shut down, but 156 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 7: we're starting to see those numbers tick up as well. 157 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 7: So the demand there is really though for skilled workers. 158 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 2: Yeah. So, I mean Torsten Slock, who is the chief 159 00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 2: economist at Apollo Global. He was out with a really 160 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 2: cool chart today right after the data came out foreign 161 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 2: born workers contributing to labor force growth. And over the 162 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 2: last two months there's been actually been a net decline 163 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 2: in native worn workers. Uh with this data set, and 164 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 2: all of it has come from foreign born workers. So 165 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 2: it's certainly it's kicking into the labor force. What do 166 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 2: you see on this, like in your business the temporary 167 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 2: stuff and where are you seeing that and how have 168 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 2: the trends change there? 169 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 7: Yeah, so when it's interesting, I follow his work. Employee 170 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 7: Bridge is owned by Apollo, so we look. We look 171 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 7: closely at his data every morning. I get his emails. 172 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 7: But I you know, what we see in our business 173 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:39,160 Speaker 7: is employee Bridge really provides staffing for supply chain, so manufacturing, logistics, 174 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:43,239 Speaker 7: you know, transportation. We staff a lot in call centers. 175 00:08:44,280 --> 00:08:47,800 Speaker 7: There has been you know, certainly a softening in those 176 00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 7: sectors over the last few years. The the hot topic sometimes, 177 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 7: you know, in in those types of jobs is of 178 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:01,200 Speaker 7: course we're always focused on placing documented works and that 179 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 7: is extremely important, but there is a challenge I think 180 00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 7: in some of the lower skilled jobs where you might 181 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 7: run into, you know, some employers that aren't following all 182 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 7: of the guidelines. But we are seeing demands start to 183 00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:22,559 Speaker 7: come back. In transportation, in logistics, call center, customer service, 184 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 7: all of those jobs are coming back and really strong, 185 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 7: you know, still strong wages across the board in those areas. 186 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:34,680 Speaker 6: Do you get the sense that how has employer behavior 187 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:37,559 Speaker 6: over the last few years changed, and that how has 188 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:41,560 Speaker 6: that changed the temp landscape because usually maybe you'd lay 189 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:44,080 Speaker 6: people off and then get tempts back in order to 190 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 6: see if the demand was going to be there. Has 191 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:47,959 Speaker 6: that now changed a little bit? 192 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:54,960 Speaker 7: Well, I think employers are still wanting flexible workforce. They 193 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 7: use temporary labor certainly to ramp up and ramp down. 194 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:02,959 Speaker 7: I think it's why we've seen the sector really been hit. 195 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:05,080 Speaker 8: The hardest over the last two years. 196 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,319 Speaker 7: As employers when they go to cut back, they don't 197 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:10,080 Speaker 7: want to cut their permanent employees, so they will let 198 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 7: the temporary workers go go first. But right now, we're 199 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:17,679 Speaker 7: seeing a lot of optimism. They're talking about hiring and 200 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:20,160 Speaker 7: ramping up, and so maybe we really did have that 201 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 7: soft landing where where now things will start to stabilize 202 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:27,360 Speaker 7: and we'll see that employers will add not only to 203 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 7: their permanent payrolls but also to temporary staffing and flexible 204 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 7: workforce models. 205 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:36,199 Speaker 2: Do you see in your work at employeers? Do you 206 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 2: see regionality here in terms of the labor market. I mean, 207 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 2: is everybody just flocking to Texas and Florida and all 208 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:42,600 Speaker 2: that kind of stuff. 209 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:45,840 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean it's it's strong though also you know 210 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:51,400 Speaker 7: in the North certainly if you look the automotive, you know, industry, 211 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 7: and with the building of all the ev plants, there 212 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 7: is a demand certainly for workers in manufacturing, even though 213 00:10:59,880 --> 00:11:01,960 Speaker 7: we're not seeing it in the numbers today. Like you 214 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:03,439 Speaker 7: look at the manufacturing number, and of. 215 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:06,560 Speaker 6: Course manufacturing was pretty strong right earlier in the week. 216 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:09,200 Speaker 7: Yeah, and that was very optimistic. So I think we're 217 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 7: going to start to see growth in the manufacturing sector 218 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:17,840 Speaker 7: and growth in manufacturing jobs certainly into this year, but 219 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 7: even more so next year and beyond. 220 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:21,560 Speaker 3: Are you based in Florida. 221 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:23,959 Speaker 7: I do live in Florida, but I am a New 222 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 7: Yorker at heart. 223 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:26,800 Speaker 2: Okay, I get that. Yes, I like to just get 224 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 2: a sense of how is the labor market down there? 225 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 2: I mean, is it just as crazy as the headline 226 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:33,880 Speaker 2: seemed to make a belief, because seems like here in 227 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:36,680 Speaker 2: New York, the story was everybody was walking down to Florida, 228 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 2: even like our big Wall Street folks are heading down there. 229 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 2: What's it like to be in South Florida these yas? 230 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 7: Yeah, so yeah, I do live in South Florida. And 231 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 7: there's this you know, strong demand a lot of course 232 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 7: in leisure and hospitality. You know, you still see restaurants 233 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:52,840 Speaker 7: can't find enough workers. They won't even have all of 234 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:56,800 Speaker 7: their tables staffed, you know, and there's long wait lines. 235 00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:59,080 Speaker 7: So the economy certainly is strong. 236 00:11:59,120 --> 00:11:59,959 Speaker 6: People are moving there. 237 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:02,080 Speaker 7: Housing prices are continuing to still. 238 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:02,640 Speaker 3: Rise, Is that right? 239 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 7: Yow? 240 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 2: Because you know, just the anecdote in my town I've 241 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:07,960 Speaker 2: shared with these two friend of mine owns a restaurant 242 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 2: locally here in New Jersey. 243 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:10,440 Speaker 3: For the first time in several years. 244 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:13,200 Speaker 2: He now is fully staffed because and he realized that 245 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:15,439 Speaker 2: you know, the bust people bust the table and wash 246 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 2: the dishes. Those are undocumented workers, and for years, for 247 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:20,679 Speaker 2: the last several years, he hasn't had full hours, but 248 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:22,760 Speaker 2: now he's back to fully staffed. That so I don't 249 00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:23,440 Speaker 2: know how that all. 250 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 7: Yeah, Florida isn't there CYS. I know, maybe they will 251 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 7: get there soon. 252 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,959 Speaker 6: So what's the next Like what's next on your plate? 253 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 6: Like what's the next thing you're looking at and focusing on? 254 00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:36,320 Speaker 7: Well, I think, you know, it was great to see 255 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 7: the household survey today that we saw the growth in 256 00:12:39,559 --> 00:12:42,400 Speaker 7: the labor you know, the size of labor force grew 257 00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 7: by four hundred and seventy seventy nine thousand, So that 258 00:12:46,160 --> 00:12:48,920 Speaker 7: to me is a number I really watch. I'm always 259 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 7: looking at the size of the workforce, labor participation. Do 260 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:56,079 Speaker 7: we have more people saying yes, I want to participate 261 00:12:56,120 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 7: in the workforce. I do believe though, that employees are 262 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 7: going to need to start focusing on training and upskilling workers. 263 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:08,199 Speaker 7: That is going to be very important because the jobs 264 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,480 Speaker 7: are changing so rapidly. You know, we see it with 265 00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:16,040 Speaker 7: with AI the technology robotics in all sectors, not just 266 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 7: in supply chain, but in all sectors, and so people 267 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 7: are going to need to learn how to work with 268 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:21,680 Speaker 7: those skills. 269 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 2: And where do they get work? Are they working hybrid still? 270 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 2: That's that's the thing. 271 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:28,960 Speaker 7: Well, in supply chain they're back, they really are. But 272 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 7: in most of the other professional and business service sectors 273 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:36,439 Speaker 7: they're in the office one day a week, sometimes fully remote. 274 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:40,079 Speaker 2: Really coming then it's pretty much TV. 275 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:41,600 Speaker 8: You guys are here every every day. 276 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 6: Yes, not that Paul talks about that all the time. 277 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 6: But if you work in supply and logistics, I know 278 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 6: I'd be back in the office. So there you go. 279 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:51,640 Speaker 6: All right, Jenny, thanks a lot. We really appreciate it. 280 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:54,160 Speaker 6: So lovely to see you in person. Jenny Biley is 281 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:57,840 Speaker 6: chief workforced Analysts at employee Bridge, joining us here in 282 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:00,960 Speaker 6: the studio taking a look at these markets. Here the 283 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:04,720 Speaker 6: idea of US exceptionalism still kind of stand relatively strong. 284 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:11,040 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 285 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Afocarplay and Android outo 286 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you 287 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:20,600 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 288 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 6: So let's get right to what to do with these markets. 289 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 6: At some point, you think that high yields are going 290 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 6: to wind up putting the equity market. That doesn't seem 291 00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 6: to be the case. We're recouping some of those losses 292 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 6: from yesterday. Grace Lee is senior portfolio manager for a 293 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 6: Columbia thread Needle and she joins us now. Grace, when 294 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 6: does the tenuere at four point three four percent hurt 295 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 6: the equity market? For example? 296 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 8: Morning, Alex, thanks for having me. 297 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:51,440 Speaker 9: I think today's news was actually a nice sigh of 298 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 9: relief for all the equity market investors who've been pretty 299 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 9: much wringing their hands all week on somewhat stronger economic data. 300 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 8: But the age gains were less than I think. 301 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 9: We're certainly very healthy, but not not anything to be 302 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 9: alarmed about. And as far as where rates are, I 303 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:14,720 Speaker 9: think the bigger pictures that when you look at what 304 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 9: happened in the first quarter, you did have rates going up, 305 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 9: and you had or bond fields going up, and expectations 306 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:28,960 Speaker 9: of rate cuts actually coming down through the quarter, and 307 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 9: still the market rallied. So I think we're kind of 308 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 9: getting used to that growth is actually okay and the 309 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 9: market can live with that and still power higher and 310 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 9: broaden out, which I think is another key key point, 311 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 9: and so I think it might be a good scenario 312 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 9: all around Grace. 313 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 2: If we are seeing some broadening out in the participation 314 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 2: in the equity markets, what sectors would you be looking 315 00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:59,200 Speaker 2: at outside of, you know, whatever the magnificent number is these. 316 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 9: Days, Well, I think there's a lot of unmagnificent sectors 317 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 9: and companies that people are starting to look at a 318 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 9: little bit more. And again, going back to what happened 319 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 9: in first quarter, it was a revival in things like 320 00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 9: energy and financials, which you know, I think it would 321 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:22,720 Speaker 9: people would be hard pressed to call those magnificent sectors typically, 322 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:26,440 Speaker 9: but if you look at where oil prices are, if 323 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 9: you look at just the underperformance in a lot of 324 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 9: the financials last year, these have a lot of catch 325 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 9: up to play, even after some of the strength and 326 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 9: first quarter. So I think looking outside of just technology, 327 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:43,960 Speaker 9: which we still like technology, but there are certainly other 328 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 9: alternative ways to play those trends, as well as looking 329 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:50,920 Speaker 9: at what sectors really haven't participated. 330 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 6: Well, let's go to energy for a second, because part 331 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 6: of there was one narrative yesterday that talked about how 332 00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 6: the rally in oil and particularly Brent to ninety dollars 333 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 6: was a trigger for the equity market to sell up. 334 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 6: Do you buy that, and I mean, do you like 335 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 6: think that's true? And then also do you buy energy 336 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:10,320 Speaker 6: at these levels here? Do you have to wait for 337 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 6: a dip? 338 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:18,120 Speaker 9: Well, we're pretty fully invested in energy right now, and 339 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:19,359 Speaker 9: whether it's. 340 00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 8: It's a positive. 341 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:24,359 Speaker 9: I think people are clearly concerned about whether we'll see 342 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:29,399 Speaker 9: much higher gas prices, which could really you know, drive 343 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:33,040 Speaker 9: the inflation fears again. But for now it seems like 344 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:38,680 Speaker 9: everything again is still coexisting peacefully. Higher energy prices and 345 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:44,000 Speaker 9: still decent growth overall without overheating in the economy. 346 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:45,399 Speaker 3: Grace. 347 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:48,680 Speaker 2: We're going to soon shift gears back to earnings mode. 348 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:52,080 Speaker 2: We've got the JP Morgan next Friday, I guess, kicking 349 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:53,920 Speaker 2: off some of the really big earnings. What are you 350 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 2: going to be looking for this quarter from corporate America? 351 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:01,119 Speaker 8: So I think there's a couple things to be looking 352 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:02,359 Speaker 8: for again. 353 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 9: I think looking looking at where the economy is broadening 354 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 9: out and seeing if if that can continue beyond magnificent 355 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:16,640 Speaker 9: seven big tech, as well as looking to see if 356 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 9: the AI trade does still stay strong. I think you 357 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:23,680 Speaker 9: do need a little bit of that to continue for 358 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:27,959 Speaker 9: the markets to to still be happy, I guess. But 359 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,399 Speaker 9: then also you know, for for the big banks that 360 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 9: start to report. I think there's two things. Obviously, the 361 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:37,600 Speaker 9: strength of the consumer. Uh, most of the CEOs have 362 00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 9: have consistently been saying that the consumer is very resilient 363 00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:43,120 Speaker 9: and the credit trends are still benign. 364 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:45,080 Speaker 8: So we'll see if that continues. 365 00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:48,479 Speaker 9: And then to see what what the banks themselves are 366 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 9: saying about their interest income trends, given that rates might 367 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 9: stay higher for longer and that might actually be a 368 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 9: positive for them. 369 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:58,840 Speaker 6: Okay, so now it's official. Guys, did you guys feel 370 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:00,919 Speaker 6: you're in Boston, Grace, So you didn't feel this, but 371 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 6: there was an earthquake right there was tremors. It just 372 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 6: crossed the Bloomberg tremors felt throughout New York City region 373 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:09,440 Speaker 6: is building shake. We weren't crazy. So we were sitting 374 00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 6: in the radio studio, Grace, and we're all like, what 375 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:13,480 Speaker 6: is that? It felt like we were on some kind 376 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:15,840 Speaker 6: of like little roller coaster ride, and apparently it was real. 377 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:17,120 Speaker 6: We were not crazy that we. 378 00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:18,919 Speaker 2: Thought that, Well, there's a bucket list thing for me. 379 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 6: Yeah, well both things can be true as a bucket list. 380 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 6: Tremors in a building in New York City, yep, done 381 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 6: across that off all right, Grace, what else are you watching? 382 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:32,679 Speaker 6: You mentioned earning season? How are we positioned here? Like, 383 00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:35,440 Speaker 6: how is a good way to play it? What else 384 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:36,440 Speaker 6: are you looking at? 385 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:38,080 Speaker 8: Well? I think. 386 00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:41,639 Speaker 9: In the consumer sector there have been a lot of 387 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:47,400 Speaker 9: mixed signals recently. Some of the off cycle earnings reports 388 00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:51,520 Speaker 9: have been a little bit more cautious and negative. And 389 00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 9: yet you know, when you talk to companies, you hear 390 00:19:56,920 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 9: random data points like the auto companies and Detroit saying 391 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:05,640 Speaker 9: that they can't make enough six figure SUVs to keep 392 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 9: in stock, there's so much demand out there, or that 393 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:12,280 Speaker 9: the cruise lines, we're seeing the people spending one thousand 394 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,679 Speaker 9: dollars a day on cabanas, and yet you see pullbacks 395 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:19,359 Speaker 9: at places like olive gardens. So really just trying to 396 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:23,480 Speaker 9: understand that dichotomy a little bit better. You know, maybe 397 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 9: it's just consumers prioritizing certain wants over certain needs, or 398 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:33,160 Speaker 9: you know, it's I think they are irrational, and maybe 399 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:36,040 Speaker 9: we're just you know, we'll try and make a little 400 00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 9: bit more sense out of how healthy the consumer is 401 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:42,359 Speaker 9: and how much they can continue to keep this the 402 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:43,280 Speaker 9: economy going. 403 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,680 Speaker 2: Grace, how much do you I mean? AI was obviously 404 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,480 Speaker 2: a cute, huge theme in twenty twenty three continuing into 405 00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:52,200 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. It's not just in Nvidia, it's broadening out. 406 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:56,240 Speaker 2: Is that something you guys at Columbia Thread you don't 407 00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 2: try to get exposure to And if so, how have 408 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:00,240 Speaker 2: you done it? 409 00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:04,640 Speaker 9: Yes, So across the firm, we've been very focused on this, 410 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:08,439 Speaker 9: and you know, as I focus more on the value 411 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 9: and income sectors, I do have to look for or 412 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:16,240 Speaker 9: more tangential ways to play. So it does fall into 413 00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:21,160 Speaker 9: old economy technology companies like Dell and IBM, as well 414 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 9: as some industrial companies Let's say Johnson Controls gets ten 415 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:29,359 Speaker 9: to fifteen percent of their revenue from data centers. In 416 00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:33,879 Speaker 9: terms of building management systems, things like that. Utility companies 417 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 9: like a Vistra Energy which has nuclear assets that are unregulated, 418 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 9: that can really benefit from increases in power prices. So 419 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:46,600 Speaker 9: we do look for other ways to play. But you know, 420 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:50,040 Speaker 9: certainly a lot of my growth peers within the firm 421 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 9: are very bullish on other on the more traditional AI 422 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:56,960 Speaker 9: ways to play. 423 00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 8: So the nvidious and those types of names. 424 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,400 Speaker 6: Yes, it's what I'm saying, the power players. I'm glad 425 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:04,879 Speaker 6: you brought that up. That was all the conversation down 426 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:06,480 Speaker 6: in Houston a couple of weeks ago that like, you 427 00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 6: get you need the data centers, you need the chips. 428 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,120 Speaker 6: You've got to have the power and those power providers, 429 00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:14,560 Speaker 6: particularly nuclear, like really well set up for those data centers. 430 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:16,560 Speaker 6: What do you think we're going to hear about margins 431 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 6: before we let you go? Because inflation seems to be 432 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,200 Speaker 6: I don't know, sticky, stubborn, like you pick the word. 433 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:25,639 Speaker 6: What do you think the margin conversation is going to be? 434 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:28,880 Speaker 8: Well? I think the margin conversation. 435 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 9: I think while inflation is stubborn somewhat, managements are still 436 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:39,119 Speaker 9: very cautious on adding headcount, and if actually I think 437 00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 9: you've seen them, you still see announcements of headcount productions. 438 00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 9: So I think margins might actually turn out to be okay, 439 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:54,720 Speaker 9: and I would expect that we'll see decent earnings beats 440 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,119 Speaker 9: still with. 441 00:22:58,920 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 8: More cautiously. 442 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:02,359 Speaker 2: All right, Grace, thanks so much for joining us. 443 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 6: Really appreciated. 444 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 2: Grace Lee, Senior portfolio Manager, Columbia thread Needle, joining us 445 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:08,160 Speaker 2: from Boston via the zoom Thing. 446 00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 447 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,320 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecar Play and Android 448 00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:20,119 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 449 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,320 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 450 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,400 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven. 451 00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:30,520 Speaker 2: Thirty breaking earlier this morning was a pretty darn good 452 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:34,680 Speaker 2: jobs numbers coming out. Three hundred and three thousand additional 453 00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:36,840 Speaker 2: jobs last month, pretty solid. Street was looking for like 454 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 2: two seventeen, so really beat expectations. And when we do 455 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:42,000 Speaker 2: have jobs data, we'd like to check in with Tom 456 00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:45,120 Speaker 2: Gimble Thomas a founder and CEO at lasal Network. Sound 457 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,560 Speaker 2: Network's one of the largest staff and companies out there, 458 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:49,960 Speaker 2: and they have their finger on the pulse what's happening 459 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:53,120 Speaker 2: out there in the labor market. And Tom, I'm gonna 460 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:56,200 Speaker 2: guess you're pretty bullsh here about the labor market out there. 461 00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:57,280 Speaker 2: What'd you take away? 462 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:03,280 Speaker 3: It's party time time. The music hasn't stopped yet, is 463 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 3: the message. Now, Let's be realistic and say when seventy 464 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:11,080 Speaker 3: over seventy thousand jobs right over over twenty percent of 465 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 3: the jobs were government and I think we've always got 466 00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:17,080 Speaker 3: to be wary of that and that's been a big 467 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:20,480 Speaker 3: part of these positive job gains. Now, listen if it 468 00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,800 Speaker 3: wasn't three hundred and it was two hundred and thirty thousand, 469 00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:23,680 Speaker 3: it would still be great. 470 00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:27,760 Speaker 6: So Tom, I get it, Like I understand that we 471 00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 6: got to be careful about government jobs, but there were 472 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 6: others too, And I'm just wondering how you see the 473 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:34,919 Speaker 6: mismatch right, like, do we have the right people for 474 00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:36,680 Speaker 6: the right jobs? How do you manage it? 475 00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:39,960 Speaker 3: I think there's a challenge. So that the big part 476 00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:43,920 Speaker 3: came in healthcare and in service jobs, and then construction 477 00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,360 Speaker 3: and government, and so I think we all know by 478 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,120 Speaker 3: the functionality of our government that the qualifications for those 479 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:53,120 Speaker 3: jobs aren't very high, so so anybody can do those apparently. 480 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,560 Speaker 3: And then when we look at construction, you need people 481 00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:57,440 Speaker 3: who are willing to throw hammers and do the blue 482 00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:00,720 Speaker 3: collar work, and we've got challenge with that. A lot 483 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 3: of people don't want to do that. And you get 484 00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:09,000 Speaker 3: into you know, the really the validation of where our 485 00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:12,159 Speaker 3: immigration policies are both legal and illegal, of how to 486 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,800 Speaker 3: fill those jobs, and the same thing on the healthcare 487 00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,560 Speaker 3: and the service side. So you know, what we're not 488 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,200 Speaker 3: seeing is a lot of white collar jobs in the 489 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,640 Speaker 3: private sector, and that's a big thing. 490 00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:26,280 Speaker 2: That's a challenge So Tom, how about the wage increase 491 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:30,119 Speaker 2: about four point one percent? That still seems pretty solid 492 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:30,359 Speaker 2: to me. 493 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:34,000 Speaker 3: What do you make I'm surprised by that. However, at 494 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,520 Speaker 3: the same time, we're not seeing really inflation decline and 495 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 3: everything's costing more. I mean, we're in a really the 496 00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:41,960 Speaker 3: ven diagram for this will end up going in the 497 00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:47,199 Speaker 3: Smithsonian because we have a really unique situation where the 498 00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:51,840 Speaker 3: stock market keeps going strong, unemployment is low, wages are rising, 499 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:58,320 Speaker 3: inflation is too high, and at the same time, interest 500 00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:01,919 Speaker 3: rates are higher than they have in years upon years, 501 00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:05,480 Speaker 3: and nothing's stopping this. And that's just a really, really 502 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:08,879 Speaker 3: crazy situation that no one has an answer. 503 00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:11,480 Speaker 6: But you know, it does raise the question for me 504 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 6: that maybe there's the economy just stronger than we all think, 505 00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:16,800 Speaker 6: and that we can add three hundred, two hundred and 506 00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:20,959 Speaker 6: fifty thousand jobs. And that doesn't mean that we're overheating. 507 00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,560 Speaker 6: It doesn't mean that the market is super tight, that 508 00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:26,280 Speaker 6: we're just kind of growing. Is there any truth to that? 509 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,960 Speaker 3: As you see it, listen, the truth is self evident. 510 00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,560 Speaker 3: So I agree with that. The real problem we have 511 00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:36,040 Speaker 3: is the ancillary things that funnel that and what's happening 512 00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:38,960 Speaker 3: is we've got. You know, why is the service sector 513 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,240 Speaker 3: and hospitality up because more people are traveling? How are 514 00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:43,800 Speaker 3: people traveling when everything costs more? Because they're spending money 515 00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:47,880 Speaker 3: in debts going up? We have we have the national 516 00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:50,199 Speaker 3: debt which keeps increasing, and we have personal debt that 517 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,359 Speaker 3: keeps increasing, and that just means we're kicking the can forward, 518 00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 3: both individually and as a government. I can tell you 519 00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:58,879 Speaker 3: that's not good. And eventually it's going to come up 520 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:00,720 Speaker 3: and somebody's going to have to pay the piper, whether 521 00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:04,080 Speaker 3: it's on the consumer side and the government side. And 522 00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:06,760 Speaker 3: so that's what's fueling this economy. When I see all 523 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:10,080 Speaker 3: the service sector jobs being had, so I get even 524 00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:13,040 Speaker 3: on the construction side we have if it's home construction 525 00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,360 Speaker 3: that's going on and there's new homes being built, that's 526 00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:17,879 Speaker 3: because people are buying homes. How do you buy that? 527 00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:20,119 Speaker 3: You buy that on debt with a mortgage and the 528 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,439 Speaker 3: financing and the rates are higher, and how do you 529 00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:24,639 Speaker 3: do that? You got to raise wages to pay for that, 530 00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:28,399 Speaker 3: which fuels inflation. You know, there's some real, real economic 531 00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:30,919 Speaker 3: challenges that nobody wants to answer, and we don't have 532 00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:32,680 Speaker 3: a leader to tell us about it. 533 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 2: It seems like the and we're seeing some reporting here 534 00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,560 Speaker 2: from Bloomberg the black unemployment rate increased to the highest 535 00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:40,120 Speaker 2: since August of twenty twenty two. What do you think 536 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:40,679 Speaker 2: is behind that? 537 00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:43,800 Speaker 3: Tom, I mean, I think you get into a little 538 00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 3: bit of the social science on this, but I think 539 00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:51,040 Speaker 3: in a situation where we have two very different views 540 00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:54,080 Speaker 3: on society, and I don't mean black versus white, I 541 00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,200 Speaker 3: just mean on what's appropriate. I think you've got people 542 00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:02,280 Speaker 3: of color who feel that they're left behind, and I 543 00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:05,520 Speaker 3: think that you have a situation, whether it's right or wrong, 544 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:09,080 Speaker 3: due to education and due to job abilities and due 545 00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:13,240 Speaker 3: to the jobs that they're offered. Is that when they're unemployed, 546 00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,239 Speaker 3: is it because they're not getting looks or is it 547 00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,560 Speaker 3: because they're quitting the workforce or quitting jobs because they're 548 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:21,879 Speaker 3: not happy with the roles and what they're doing. And 549 00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:25,119 Speaker 3: it's something that we need some help. There needs to 550 00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:28,119 Speaker 3: be a public private partnership when we see numbers like 551 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,200 Speaker 3: that to help change that narrative. 552 00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 8: Well. 553 00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 6: Also it feels like we need that when it comes 554 00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:37,200 Speaker 6: to immigration also, I mean the surgeon in immigration, as 555 00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:39,960 Speaker 6: long as it's legal, could be very helpful to fill 556 00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,520 Speaker 6: some of those jobs that you were talking about, how 557 00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:45,200 Speaker 6: do you talk about that with companies? What's the conversation 558 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:45,720 Speaker 6: around that. 559 00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 3: So there's two different types of immigration problems we have 560 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,000 Speaker 3: in this country, and I think where people want to 561 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:55,200 Speaker 3: default to is the southern border, which is a real issue. However, 562 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,600 Speaker 3: the challenge it's been going on for over a decade 563 00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:01,040 Speaker 3: is the H one B visa problem. That is, people 564 00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 3: that we educate in this country we send back to 565 00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:06,200 Speaker 3: other countries, their college educated They can't get into the 566 00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:09,080 Speaker 3: country to do strong white collar jobs, and they go 567 00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:11,640 Speaker 3: other places and they stimulate other economies where they could 568 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:14,120 Speaker 3: be doing that here and filling jobs that we don't 569 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:18,120 Speaker 3: have the talent and people to fulfill. So that's number one. 570 00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:22,040 Speaker 3: Number two is on the illegal immigration issue, is there's 571 00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:25,920 Speaker 3: the societal impact of what's going on, of the safety concerns, 572 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,120 Speaker 3: the measles cases in Chicago, and all the different things 573 00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:31,320 Speaker 3: that are coming up in different cities. But you also 574 00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:33,680 Speaker 3: have the ability to do the work. And you know, 575 00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:38,719 Speaker 3: there's just a quiet little secret that people didn't talk about, 576 00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:43,120 Speaker 3: and that was as long as illegal immigration was somewhat 577 00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:47,080 Speaker 3: controlled for the past fifty years, one hundred years, we 578 00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:51,320 Speaker 3: needed that everybody. Not everybody, A lot of people use 579 00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:53,719 Speaker 3: it for cleaning ladies at the golf courses and the 580 00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:57,920 Speaker 3: restaurants and the dishwashers that people came in it was easier, 581 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,480 Speaker 3: they didn't have to wait. People like paying people under 582 00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:03,520 Speaker 3: the table. It didn't contribute to the taxes, but it 583 00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:06,880 Speaker 3: solved work problems. And now that's gone because there's way 584 00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:09,920 Speaker 3: too much illegal immigration and it can't be controlled at 585 00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:13,680 Speaker 3: the southern border, and that creates huge societal conflict. And 586 00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:17,280 Speaker 3: so we're dealing both with labor issues and societal issues 587 00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,600 Speaker 3: at the same time, and that's why there's all these 588 00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 3: challenges that exist. Yep, very good. Tom. 589 00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,560 Speaker 2: Really appreciate getting your thoughts here today. I always love 590 00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:27,280 Speaker 2: checking in with you on jobs Day. Tom Gimble there 591 00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:31,160 Speaker 2: giving us his thoughts here on the strong labor market. 592 00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:37,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 593 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:41,120 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 594 00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:43,960 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 595 00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:47,160 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 596 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:52,720 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty bonds. 597 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:56,080 Speaker 2: Boy, what an great time to talk to municipal bonds. 598 00:30:56,200 --> 00:31:00,680 Speaker 2: Eric Kzatsky, senior minisial strategists for Bloomberg Intelligence, calling us 599 00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,560 Speaker 2: from Princeton, New Jersey. Eric, what's new in a municipal 600 00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:05,000 Speaker 2: bond business? 601 00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:05,280 Speaker 4: Wait? 602 00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:07,880 Speaker 5: Did you feel it? Eric? Did you feel it? 603 00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:08,120 Speaker 1: Oh? 604 00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:10,640 Speaker 10: My god, did we feel it? What like fifteen miles 605 00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:12,760 Speaker 10: from the epicenter? Yeah, I mean it was so scary. 606 00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,200 Speaker 10: I Eve hasn't even gotten lunch yet. He's been busy 607 00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:16,200 Speaker 10: looking up rich Or scale. 608 00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:17,600 Speaker 5: Now that means he must be scared. 609 00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:21,720 Speaker 2: Folks, the folks on the folks on YouTube, the folks 610 00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,680 Speaker 2: on YouTube. We wed you know, Eric Kazatski on with us, 611 00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:27,400 Speaker 2: and sitting right behind Eric is our good friend Irad Jersey, 612 00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:31,560 Speaker 2: also in Bloomberg Intelligence. There's their offices for Bloomberg Intelligence 613 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:35,120 Speaker 2: in Princeton, New Jersey, as Eric mentioned, literally like fifteen 614 00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:37,400 Speaker 2: miles away from the epicenter. All right, Eric, so is 615 00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:41,440 Speaker 2: there municipal bond angle here? I mean you can start 616 00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:44,800 Speaker 2: issuing more municipal bonds. I'm half joking, but I felt 617 00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:45,520 Speaker 2: like I had to go there. 618 00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:45,840 Speaker 9: Yeah. 619 00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:48,480 Speaker 10: Now, I think the good thing here in the takeaway 620 00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:51,200 Speaker 10: is that there has never been a municipal bond default 621 00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:55,000 Speaker 10: because of a natural disaster earthquakes included, so mini bond 622 00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:57,360 Speaker 10: investors can rest assured this is going to be a 623 00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:59,480 Speaker 10: non issue right now. So that's a good takeaway. 624 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,120 Speaker 6: Okay, well, I'm glad, I'm glad we worked that out. 625 00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:05,240 Speaker 6: So that's quite good. All right, Okay, My favorite question 626 00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:07,640 Speaker 6: is how's issuance? What's going on? Where we learned this week? 627 00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:10,680 Speaker 10: You know what, issuance has been quite decent. I think 628 00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:13,840 Speaker 10: we're up about thirty percent year over year. You know, look, 629 00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:16,040 Speaker 10: tax time tends to be a little bit slower in 630 00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,200 Speaker 10: the municipal market, and I don't think the pop in 631 00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:21,160 Speaker 10: rates is doing anybody any favors. Any deals that we're 632 00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:23,040 Speaker 10: sort of like waiting to come on the market, they 633 00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:24,880 Speaker 10: might be held back just to see if rates settled 634 00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:27,200 Speaker 10: down a little bit. But I think the latest statements 635 00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:29,960 Speaker 10: by cash Carrie really sort of put you know, a 636 00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:31,800 Speaker 10: little bit of fear into some investors that we're not 637 00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:33,840 Speaker 10: going to get any cuts this year. So I do 638 00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:35,720 Speaker 10: think that's going to be impactful as we get into 639 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:36,920 Speaker 10: the fall and closer to the election. 640 00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:42,320 Speaker 2: So how are municipal bonds trading relative to treasuries these days? 641 00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,960 Speaker 10: Most excellent? You know by comparison, Yeah, I mean we're 642 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,560 Speaker 10: we're out performing treasuries by two hundred basis points. So 643 00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:51,720 Speaker 10: for those who are just solely focused on total return, 644 00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:54,320 Speaker 10: it's been a really, really great year. You know, obviously 645 00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:55,880 Speaker 10: we're still down a little bit, but you're getting the 646 00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,920 Speaker 10: benefit of that carry in the municipal space, you know, 647 00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:01,280 Speaker 10: from a yield stamp, and I think that's really where 648 00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:04,600 Speaker 10: people should be focused, especially if you're concerned about higher taxes. 649 00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:07,920 Speaker 10: On a comparable basis, right, tax equivalent yields for those 650 00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:09,960 Speaker 10: people who are in the highest bracket in New York, 651 00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:12,480 Speaker 10: you're picking up about three hundred basis points over same 652 00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:15,800 Speaker 10: rated corporates, So you know, there really is a decent 653 00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:17,320 Speaker 10: advantage to being in Meani's right. 654 00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:19,720 Speaker 6: Now, where have we seen a lot of issuance in 655 00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:20,360 Speaker 6: the last week? 656 00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:21,760 Speaker 8: What caught your eye? 657 00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:24,040 Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean there's a lot of stuff on the pipeline. 658 00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:25,960 Speaker 10: It's coming down in the healthcare space, which I think 659 00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:29,320 Speaker 10: is super interesting, especially because we put out a report 660 00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:31,720 Speaker 10: yesterday and like that tie in right there where we 661 00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:34,600 Speaker 10: talked about how some of the biggest passive ETFs don't 662 00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:37,400 Speaker 10: really have a lot of exposure in higher ed and 663 00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:40,200 Speaker 10: in hospitals and in healthcare. So you know, I think 664 00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,560 Speaker 10: that you know, as margins improve in that space, they 665 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:44,360 Speaker 10: are going to be better performing. As we get into 666 00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,400 Speaker 10: the later stages of this year and into next year, 667 00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,160 Speaker 10: and those passive products, they're just not going to participate 668 00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:49,880 Speaker 10: in those returns. 669 00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:53,000 Speaker 2: Talk to us about demand out there. If I coming 670 00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:56,280 Speaker 2: out with a municipal bond nicely rated, what kind of 671 00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:57,400 Speaker 2: demand am I going to see? 672 00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:00,360 Speaker 10: You know what, people are tripping over themselves to buy 673 00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:03,360 Speaker 10: up on the issue market. Yeah, I mean everything that's 674 00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:07,280 Speaker 10: come has been well over subscribed. You know, California, I 675 00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:09,040 Speaker 10: think they sold close to like two two and a 676 00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:11,040 Speaker 10: half billion of bonds. When you get a bond issue 677 00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:12,880 Speaker 10: of that size, that's that big. That's a lot of 678 00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:15,560 Speaker 10: bonds for the market to take down, you know. So 679 00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:17,800 Speaker 10: we did see a little bit of a spread softening 680 00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:20,440 Speaker 10: with that, But I think again, as we sort of 681 00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,759 Speaker 10: you know, get into the higher demand areas of the year, 682 00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:26,239 Speaker 10: you know, May, June, July, you know, their spreads are 683 00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:27,160 Speaker 10: going to revert a little bit. 684 00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:30,480 Speaker 6: It wasn't there like a thing about sports and Travis 685 00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:35,000 Speaker 6: Kelcey or something wanted to do something with tax increases 686 00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:36,600 Speaker 6: to pay for the stadium. That didn't work? 687 00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:38,600 Speaker 10: Did it not so much? 688 00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:38,839 Speaker 7: Right? 689 00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:41,200 Speaker 10: You know, Look, I've always been a sort of a 690 00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:44,440 Speaker 10: questioning the fact that you know, taxpayers are put on 691 00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:46,880 Speaker 10: the hook or asked to sort of levy themselves to 692 00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:50,080 Speaker 10: keep their you know, hometown sports teams you know, stay 693 00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:52,920 Speaker 10: put and no different. In Kansas City, they put a 694 00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:55,319 Speaker 10: referendum oount. It was voted down by the you know, 695 00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:58,120 Speaker 10: the taxpayers that they didn't want to increase taxes to 696 00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:00,160 Speaker 10: pay for the stadium. You know, look, at the end 697 00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:01,920 Speaker 10: of the day, are they really going to uproot the 698 00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:05,560 Speaker 10: franchise to move? It's a big lift. The logistics are 699 00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:08,360 Speaker 10: pretty tricky, especially with one that has a deep seated 700 00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:10,520 Speaker 10: championship run like they've had in the last couple of years. 701 00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:12,400 Speaker 10: So I think that the city is probably gonna come 702 00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:14,120 Speaker 10: up with some tax incentives to keep them there. It 703 00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:16,040 Speaker 10: just might not be on the shoulders of tax payers. 704 00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:20,200 Speaker 2: All right, So what's on the calendar here that Alex 705 00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:21,719 Speaker 2: should get excited about over them? 706 00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:22,320 Speaker 3: I'm excited. 707 00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:25,200 Speaker 6: Do you hear me engaging with moodies? I am working. 708 00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:28,439 Speaker 6: I brought up sports. You guys are missing all these things. 709 00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:31,240 Speaker 2: It took me like a year to get Matt Miller engaged, 710 00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:33,080 Speaker 2: and you're much quicker. 711 00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:34,000 Speaker 10: Than and then he left. 712 00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:35,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean he was. 713 00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:37,160 Speaker 10: He was super excited about me, and he's Look, you know, 714 00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:38,920 Speaker 10: we go back to the sort of those healthcare deals 715 00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:40,880 Speaker 10: that are coming, they're going to have more spread attached 716 00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:43,000 Speaker 10: to them. I like deals that I can look at 717 00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:45,040 Speaker 10: and and sort of get into the weeds on the 718 00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:46,840 Speaker 10: credit and that are just more interesting. 719 00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:47,120 Speaker 1: Right. 720 00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:49,680 Speaker 10: Look, you can look at a triple A credit that's 721 00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,320 Speaker 10: just like tax backed. It's okay, it's not that interesting 722 00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:55,400 Speaker 10: from a credit analyst perspective. But things that are revenue based, 723 00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:57,759 Speaker 10: you know, things that have you know, had a rough 724 00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:00,520 Speaker 10: couple of years, you know, during the pandemic, like the 725 00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:03,680 Speaker 10: healthcare sector. I think those are sort of recovery stories 726 00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:05,319 Speaker 10: that will be more interesting to sort of pick through. 727 00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:07,880 Speaker 6: All right, well, well what else you got? What should 728 00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:09,399 Speaker 6: I be paying him? What am I gonna get excited 729 00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:11,000 Speaker 6: about for next week? Tell me, tell me? Tell me. 730 00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,120 Speaker 10: I think you got to get excited just about how 731 00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:17,440 Speaker 10: much more yield UNI buyers are picking up over corporates, 732 00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:20,839 Speaker 10: you know, as spreads compressing the corporate sector and UNI 733 00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:23,359 Speaker 10: bonds you know, will trade softer over the next month 734 00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:25,759 Speaker 10: as people sell them to pay their taxes. If you're 735 00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:27,480 Speaker 10: a high at worth person and you're looking to pick 736 00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:29,680 Speaker 10: up some yield, I think now's the time to be buying. 737 00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:34,560 Speaker 2: All right, Very good, mister Kazatsky. He is our strategist 738 00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:38,600 Speaker 2: down there in Princeton, kind of this epicenter almost of 739 00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:41,440 Speaker 2: the earthquake activity in the Greater New Jersey. Or Kazarski 740 00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:46,120 Speaker 2: senior municipal strategist for Bloomberg and in intelligence. So you know, 741 00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:48,680 Speaker 2: it's interesting. You're getting nice yield there on a Texas 742 00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:51,959 Speaker 2: Justible Basan is getting better yield today, you know, versus 743 00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:53,840 Speaker 2: the last few years. But on a Texa JUSTI bass. 744 00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:56,160 Speaker 2: If you live in a high tech state like like 745 00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:58,640 Speaker 2: I do, uh, you know it makes a big deal. 746 00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:03,279 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apples, Spotify, 747 00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:06,680 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 748 00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:10,080 Speaker 1: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 749 00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:13,799 Speaker 1: Beheartradio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 750 00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:17,000 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 751 00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:18,760 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal