WEBVTT - Vance Arrives in Pakistan for US-Iran Talks 0:00:00.040 --> 0:00:10.160 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Bloomberg 0:00:10.240 --> 0:00:15.920 This Weekend podcast with David Gura, Christina Raffini, and Elisa Matteo. 0:00:17.680 --> 0:00:20.560 Thanks for joining us for today's selection of conversations from 0:00:20.600 --> 0:00:20.959 the show. 0:00:21.200 --> 0:00:23.479 You can listen to our favorite discussions right here on 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:25.800 the podcast, but also make sure to join us live 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:28.960 every Saturday and Sunday morning starting at seven am Easter. 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:32.760 We're on Bloomberg Television, Radio and the Bloomberg Business App, 0:00:33.040 --> 0:00:37.600 bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics, 0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:39.120 lifestyle and culture. 0:00:41.720 --> 0:00:43.919 Well, just a couple hours ago, Vice President jad Van, 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:47.000 Special ENVOYE d Witcop and Jared Kushner met with Pakistan's 0:00:47.000 --> 0:00:50.160 Prime minister ahead of these highly anticipated peace talks between 0:00:50.159 --> 0:00:51.960 the US and iron We're going to go live to 0:00:51.960 --> 0:00:54.840 Pakistan in a moment, but joining us now Bloomberg's Israel 0:00:54.840 --> 0:00:59.000 Bureau chief Evan Brauner and White House correspondent Katherine Lucy Ethan. 0:00:58.840 --> 0:01:01.760 I want to start with you because in Pakistan we 0:01:01.840 --> 0:01:05.240 have representatives from Iran and representaters from the United States, 0:01:05.319 --> 0:01:08.880 but not there and not represented is anyone from Israel. 0:01:08.959 --> 0:01:12.120 Is it possible for this war to end without Israel's 0:01:12.160 --> 0:01:13.600 participation in peace talks. 0:01:14.640 --> 0:01:18.000 Uh, sure, I mean I think that you know, Israel 0:01:18.080 --> 0:01:21.479 is being informed by the United States on a sort 0:01:21.480 --> 0:01:24.600 of a side channel. So I don't think that's a problem. 0:01:25.120 --> 0:01:27.240 It would have been surprising if Israel would have shown 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:30.440 up in Pakistan. There are no diplomatic relations in Pakistan, 0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:33.720 and Israel would have been complicated. And this is you know, 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:37.040 negotiation with the United States and Iran. So I don't 0:01:37.040 --> 0:01:38.600 think that is the biggest problem. 0:01:38.680 --> 0:01:41.840 No, So what is the biggest problem? I mean, there 0:01:41.840 --> 0:01:42.360 are quite a. 0:01:42.360 --> 0:01:46.920 Few, but well, there are many many problems. Yeah, I 0:01:46.920 --> 0:01:49.360 mean Israel's presence at the table. I guess it's just 0:01:49.400 --> 0:01:50.840 not a very high one on the list. 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:51.400 I mean. 0:01:51.440 --> 0:01:54.040 The biggest problem, of course, is that the United States 0:01:54.000 --> 0:01:57.480 and Israel launched this war six weeks ago and thought 0:01:57.720 --> 0:02:03.120 they could effectively take a heart that regime and force change, 0:02:03.960 --> 0:02:06.960 and found that the regime was far more resistant than 0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:12.240 they expected. And the regime's survival and even Friday on 0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:15.800 some level in Iran, has allowed it to take control 0:02:15.840 --> 0:02:18.640 of the Strait of Weremus to sort of have a 0:02:18.680 --> 0:02:22.040 stranglehold over a large part of the world economy through that, 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:27.480 and has you know, caused enormous political problems for President Trump, 0:02:27.639 --> 0:02:30.240 so he would like to find a way to wrap 0:02:30.280 --> 0:02:35.320 this up, you know, assuming you take seriously the goals 0:02:35.360 --> 0:02:38.280 he set for this war along with Israel, those. 0:02:38.080 --> 0:02:38.960 Have not been met. 0:02:39.440 --> 0:02:42.760 So to end it and not reach those goals, what 0:02:42.800 --> 0:02:45.720 does that mean for the security issues that he raised? 0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:47.960 On the other hand, to not end this war and 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:53.080 allow oil and fertilizer and all the other issues that 0:02:53.120 --> 0:02:56.240 we're facing to go forward when most people did not 0:02:56.360 --> 0:03:00.320 consider this a necessary war also seems unlikely. I would 0:03:00.320 --> 0:03:04.239 say it's very gloomy picture. Frankly from the points of 0:03:04.320 --> 0:03:05.400 view of the United States. 0:03:05.960 --> 0:03:07.800 Katherine, I want to go to you because I think 0:03:07.840 --> 0:03:09.320 I know the answer to this, but I'm going to 0:03:09.360 --> 0:03:12.760 ask it anyway. Do we have any more information from 0:03:12.800 --> 0:03:15.560 the White House about when these talks are going to start, 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:18.160 because it's already getting quite late in the afternoon in Pakistan, 0:03:18.480 --> 0:03:21.000 what the format of them is going to be, and 0:03:21.120 --> 0:03:23.280 how long they're willing to stay there. Are we still 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:26.560 planning on only one day of talks regardless of the outcome? 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:29.280 Yeah, thanks so much. I mean, you know, we don't 0:03:29.280 --> 0:03:31.079 have a lot of information about how this is going 0:03:31.160 --> 0:03:34.040 to unfold. Obviously, we know that Vice President Vance is 0:03:34.040 --> 0:03:36.560 over there to lead this, you know, it's Jerry Kushner 0:03:36.720 --> 0:03:42.360 and Witkoff. They are they have already had this initial 0:03:42.360 --> 0:03:45.160 meeting with Pakistan, but we're still waiting, honestly for more 0:03:45.160 --> 0:03:48.920 information about how this is going to unfold, how this 0:03:49.040 --> 0:03:52.000 is going to proceed. And this is a very high 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:55.160 stakes moment for the Vice president. You know, we've never 0:03:55.200 --> 0:03:56.880 really seen him play this kind of role on the 0:03:56.920 --> 0:04:00.880 world stage before. It's kind of a classic vice president 0:04:00.920 --> 0:04:05.400 assignment which is high risk but potentially some reward. You know, 0:04:05.440 --> 0:04:08.440 it would help him obviously if he can help broker 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:11.320 some kind of deal here as he looks ahead potentially 0:04:11.320 --> 0:04:14.280 to twenty twenty eight, but he could get saddled with 0:04:14.360 --> 0:04:17.080 a lot of blame if these there is there are 0:04:17.120 --> 0:04:18.479 no wins out of these talks today. 0:04:18.640 --> 0:04:20.680 Yeah, yeah, Catherine, I want to talk a little bit 0:04:20.720 --> 0:04:23.520 more about that and Jady Vance's role here. There was 0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:26.839 that reporting earlier this week from The New York Times 0:04:26.839 --> 0:04:29.359 Maggie Harman and Jonathan Swan about what actually happened in 0:04:29.360 --> 0:04:32.960 the situation room and who felt what about this war 0:04:33.040 --> 0:04:36.240 and Jady Vance was sort of alone in his opposition 0:04:36.320 --> 0:04:38.880 to this, and he served in the military. He's against 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:42.760 these forever wars. He is opposed and has been opposed 0:04:42.760 --> 0:04:47.000 to different conflicts. I'm just curious what that means to 0:04:47.080 --> 0:04:50.400 send him as the lead negotiator somebody who, you know, 0:04:51.160 --> 0:04:53.600 based on reporting and what we've read, really didn't want 0:04:53.640 --> 0:04:55.599 to be attacking Iran in the first place. 0:04:57.360 --> 0:05:00.160 Well, certainly we know that, you know, in those a 0:05:00.200 --> 0:05:03.720 conversation to events, was you know, among the more skeptical 0:05:03.800 --> 0:05:06.520 or certainly someone who wanted to you know, sort of 0:05:06.560 --> 0:05:10.520 have a more robust debate, bring more information to the president. 0:05:11.800 --> 0:05:15.320 And yes, he has a history of raising concerns and 0:05:15.360 --> 0:05:19.159 expressing anxiety about forever wars. So that is that is 0:05:19.200 --> 0:05:21.760 a key dynamic going into this. And the President was 0:05:21.800 --> 0:05:23.640 influenced by a lot of folks from outside of the 0:05:23.640 --> 0:05:25.480 White House as he made the decision to do this. 0:05:26.080 --> 0:05:28.200 Also important to note that Jadvance has been very ear 0:05:28.279 --> 0:05:30.359 publicly the once the President made the decision, he was 0:05:30.400 --> 0:05:32.719 with him. He has he has defended it, he has 0:05:33.120 --> 0:05:35.599 he has been vocal about that and that he is, 0:05:35.640 --> 0:05:37.880 you know, part of his team. I mean, the thing 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:40.080 is that sending him over there really, you know, sort 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:42.559 of saddles him with it, right, It puts it around 0:05:42.600 --> 0:05:45.880 his neck as well, and there's no way for him 0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:50.360 to distance himself from this war now, given that he 0:05:50.440 --> 0:05:53.279 is now really sort of taking a leading role in 0:05:53.279 --> 0:05:54.520 in the diplomacy here. 0:05:55.320 --> 0:05:57.880 Yeathan, I want to ask you about the role of nationalism, 0:05:57.920 --> 0:05:59.960 because this is something we've seen time and time again, 0:06:00.000 --> 0:06:03.720 and where countries who may not like their leader go 0:06:03.800 --> 0:06:06.040 into a conflict, go into war and kind of close 0:06:06.160 --> 0:06:09.840 ranks behind them. And what I'm hearing from Iranian friends 0:06:09.880 --> 0:06:11.680 and people I know who have family there is that 0:06:11.720 --> 0:06:14.520 they hated this regime. Many of the ones I've spoken 0:06:14.560 --> 0:06:17.520 to are not friends of the Ayatola, of the clerics. 0:06:17.520 --> 0:06:18.880 They are happy to see them go. 0:06:19.360 --> 0:06:22.040 But the way the US has gone about this conflict 0:06:22.160 --> 0:06:25.320 is not making friends and winning over hearts and minds, 0:06:25.560 --> 0:06:27.640 and Iranians are almost starting to close rank. 0:06:27.720 --> 0:06:28.440 Do you think the. 0:06:28.400 --> 0:06:31.120 Scorched earth tactics we've seen in some places from the 0:06:31.200 --> 0:06:34.000 US have made it harder for a moderate regime to 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:35.880 come in and take hold into ihran. 0:06:36.880 --> 0:06:38.840 I do I think the things you said are very 0:06:38.920 --> 0:06:41.080 likely to be true. I mean this has been this 0:06:41.240 --> 0:06:43.839 was even a year and plus ago in the twelve 0:06:43.920 --> 0:06:46.760 Day War in June of twenty five. The question is, 0:06:46.800 --> 0:06:49.640 you know, raised both here and in the United States 0:06:49.640 --> 0:06:53.120 and generally that this is a very unpopular regime. They 0:06:53.120 --> 0:06:55.640 were barely able to keep the lights on in Iran, 0:06:55.800 --> 0:06:58.680 there were droughts. This is a country that's oil rich 0:06:58.720 --> 0:07:01.680 and spending vast sums of money on his belah and 0:07:01.680 --> 0:07:04.360 the hutis and hamas instead of on its own people. 0:07:04.880 --> 0:07:09.160 And obviously the idea was that people are unhappy and 0:07:09.200 --> 0:07:11.760 want to get rid of it. But if an outside 0:07:11.840 --> 0:07:14.600 force comes and starts to bomb the place, and the 0:07:14.680 --> 0:07:18.440 natural reaction is to gather around those, you know, your 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:21.960 own people, And it looks like that's kind of what's happened. 0:07:22.000 --> 0:07:24.960 I mean, you know, it's also true that this government 0:07:25.120 --> 0:07:28.480 in Iran is I think, was far more skill at 0:07:29.160 --> 0:07:34.200 decentralizing its command structure and so on. Vast country almost 0:07:34.280 --> 0:07:37.320 the size of Western Europe, ninety plus million people. 0:07:37.720 --> 0:07:39.160 You know, this was not a. 0:07:39.240 --> 0:07:43.720 Venezuela Mark II situation. And the Israelies and the Americans, 0:07:43.720 --> 0:07:46.600 at least the Americans led by President Trump, seemed to 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:50.200 hope and believe that it might be. And I think 0:07:50.240 --> 0:07:53.520 that you're right. It's all kinds of things have happened 0:07:53.560 --> 0:07:56.880 that not what they expected, including a sense among a 0:07:56.920 --> 0:07:59.120 bunch of Iranians. And we don't have any polls, just 0:07:59.160 --> 0:08:03.160 the impressions that you've laid out that they're angrier at 0:08:03.200 --> 0:08:05.440 the outsiders than they are at their own government. 0:08:05.800 --> 0:08:07.760 Hey, Ethan, we've spoken to you quite a bit over 0:08:07.760 --> 0:08:09.560 the last two and a half years, and one thing 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:12.480 that we've learned is that you've spent more time in 0:08:12.840 --> 0:08:17.080 your bomb shelter along with your fellow Israeli people who 0:08:17.120 --> 0:08:20.480 live in Israel in your family than you would have 0:08:20.600 --> 0:08:22.480 liked to, especially over the last few weeks. And I'm 0:08:22.520 --> 0:08:24.800 wondering if that has changed, and how much that has 0:08:24.880 --> 0:08:30.239 changed since Tuesday and since this fragile ceasefire, Well. 0:08:30.040 --> 0:08:34.319 It's completely changed. I still you're looking at me in 0:08:34.360 --> 0:08:36.720 my bomb shelter because it happens to be my study. 0:08:37.480 --> 0:08:41.960 But after the ceasefire was announced, there has been very 0:08:42.000 --> 0:08:46.280 little There was a Hisbolla missile that reached Tel Aviv 0:08:46.640 --> 0:08:50.640 the night before last, but generally people are out. I 0:08:50.840 --> 0:08:54.640 just actually came back from the seaside where I had lunch, 0:08:54.760 --> 0:08:57.880 and lots and lots and lots of people are out, 0:08:57.960 --> 0:09:01.640 So there is generally a set of security now in 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:06.600 this moment of ceasefire, for sure, Catherine. 0:09:06.640 --> 0:09:10.719 Meanwhile, the President, who has dispatched as Vice President overseas, 0:09:10.920 --> 0:09:13.800 is not in Washington this weekend. He's in Florida for 0:09:14.640 --> 0:09:16.800 he had an invention in Schotz Building on Florida for 0:09:16.920 --> 0:09:19.679 I believe a UFC fight. And then we have some 0:09:19.800 --> 0:09:22.040 comments from him on this whole thing before he got 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:23.840 on his plant of Virginia on Friday. 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:27.920 The Strait will open up if we just left. The 0:09:28.000 --> 0:09:31.000 straight's gonna otherwise. They make no money, so the Strait's 0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:33.960 gonna open. But what we have is no nuclear weapon. 0:09:34.040 --> 0:09:36.800 But we'll open the Straight anyway. Don't forget we don't 0:09:36.880 --> 0:09:40.199 use the straight. Other countries use the straight. So we 0:09:40.320 --> 0:09:43.400 do have other countries coming up and they'll help out, 0:09:43.440 --> 0:09:46.880 but we don't use it. It won't be easy. It 0:09:46.920 --> 0:09:48.599 won't be I would say this. 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:51.880 We will have that open fairly soon. 0:09:53.240 --> 0:09:55.760 Do you think the President has essentially moved on from this? 0:09:56.080 --> 0:09:57.920 He seems to think it's going to resolve itself. 0:09:59.600 --> 0:10:04.360 No, moved on, And one tiny thing. He was in 0:10:04.520 --> 0:10:06.679 Virginia yesterday at this event. He actually went back to 0:10:06.760 --> 0:10:08.640 the White House last night, and he's expected to come 0:10:08.720 --> 0:10:12.360 down to Florida where it is just that said tiny 0:10:12.480 --> 0:10:14.719 programming note. Yeah, he's supposed to that he is. Yes, 0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:18.559 he is supposed to attend a UFC fight in Miami tonight, 0:10:18.600 --> 0:10:21.160 that is the expectation, and and then be here from 0:10:21.160 --> 0:10:24.319 part of the weekend. I think that he has made 0:10:24.400 --> 0:10:26.440 very clear he would like to move forward. I mean 0:10:26.480 --> 0:10:28.559 he also said in those comments to reporters, you know, 0:10:28.600 --> 0:10:33.480 they've effectively defeated around you know, they're they're you know, 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:36.679 it's basically done. And you've seen him laying that kind 0:10:36.720 --> 0:10:39.480 of rhetorical groundwork for some time. Right, We've heard and 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:42.040 talk about how this is that basically this mission is 0:10:42.080 --> 0:10:46.120 basically accomplished. They've done what they've gave way they've wanted 0:10:46.160 --> 0:10:49.679 to do, whether or not that is the case. And 0:10:49.840 --> 0:10:52.240 I think what's happening obviously, and this is referred to 0:10:52.360 --> 0:10:53.959 the I mean, he is under an immense amount of 0:10:53.960 --> 0:10:58.920 pressure about domestic gas prices, about public opinion polling, and 0:10:59.000 --> 0:11:01.439 about the midterm election, which we're already expected to be 0:11:01.559 --> 0:11:05.400 challenging for Republicans and now we're looking increasingly dire. 0:11:05.559 --> 0:11:05.920 I mean, the. 0:11:07.400 --> 0:11:12.040 Public is not sold on this war and the rise 0:11:12.120 --> 0:11:15.400 in gas prices is only sort of juicing frustration that 0:11:15.600 --> 0:11:19.520 was already there over the cost of living and prices. 0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:23.920 I want to bring in Philip Crowther. He is joining us, 0:11:23.960 --> 0:11:28.040 he's AP international correspondent. He's joining us from Islamabad right now, Philip, 0:11:28.040 --> 0:11:29.800 we're going to get back to the affordability portion of 0:11:29.840 --> 0:11:33.599 this for American for Americans and especially as Republicans and 0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:36.480 Democrats go into the midterms in just a few months. 0:11:36.600 --> 0:11:39.400 But since you are in Islamabad, just bring us up 0:11:39.440 --> 0:11:42.920 to date on what has happened with negotiators. What's the 0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:45.960 latest that you're hearing on the ground between the US, 0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:47.040 Iran and Pakistan. 0:11:50.080 --> 0:11:52.120 Yeah, this is where we have to start talking about 0:11:52.280 --> 0:11:55.800 what direct talks and what indirect talks are between the 0:11:55.920 --> 0:11:57.400 United States and Iran. 0:11:57.760 --> 0:11:59.400 That is why we're here in Islamabad. 0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:02.400 That is why there is a mediator between Iran and 0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:05.240 the United States and a host of course for these 0:12:05.360 --> 0:12:09.360 talks about the ceasefire, maybe peace talks eventually. So what 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:12.920 Pakistan is doing right now is it is meeting through 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:16.720 its Prime Minister Sharif with the two delegations, a meeting 0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:20.480 with the Iranian delegation has already happened. Iran represented here 0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:23.560 by its parliament speaker and by its foreign minister. Of course, 0:12:23.600 --> 0:12:26.000 as you know, on the US side, it's Jdevans, the 0:12:26.080 --> 0:12:30.360 Vice President, Steve Whitcoff, the chief negotiating Jared Kushner as well. 0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:34.760 They have also now met with the Pakistani Prime Minister. Now, 0:12:34.840 --> 0:12:37.960 that's how these talks tend to work, because the United 0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:41.080 States and Iran obviously don't see eye to eye together 0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:43.840 and don't tend to be seen in the same room 0:12:43.920 --> 0:12:44.720 together either. 0:12:45.160 --> 0:12:46.000 It's what often. 0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:49.000 Happens with warring factions. You need a mediator in the middle, 0:12:49.040 --> 0:12:51.600 and that is Pakistan here. Of course, the hope here 0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:55.120 is that eventually, after those meetings are done, that there 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:57.840 might be a rap roshamo, if you will, between Iran 0:12:57.880 --> 0:13:00.240 and the United States and actual physical rap rosh more 0:13:00.240 --> 0:13:02.640 here in Islamabad, and that they will actually be able 0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:06.040 to sit not necessarily side by side, but opposite each 0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:10.320 other in a negotiating room here in the Pakistani capitol. 0:13:10.880 --> 0:13:13.360 Now it's important to note though that there are obviously 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:17.240 huge differences between these two sides when it comes to 0:13:17.720 --> 0:13:21.599 extending this very tenuous ceasefire, maybe reaching some kind of 0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:24.920 a peace agreement, and that starts with Iran setting some 0:13:25.000 --> 0:13:27.959 preconditions to even meet in the first place. With the 0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:33.640 American delegation. The Iranians say that they want some of 0:13:33.720 --> 0:13:37.360 their frozen assets released in Qatar, for example, and that 0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:40.319 they want a ceasefire that is very tenuous right now, 0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:45.320 to also include Israeli attacks on Hesbala targets in Lebanon. 0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:48.280 That clearly hasn't happened over the last twenty four hours. 0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:50.600 So there is still a small question mark over whether 0:13:50.679 --> 0:13:53.640 we're going to see these actual face to face meetings 0:13:53.880 --> 0:13:57.120 between the US and Iranian delegations. Even if they don't, 0:13:57.440 --> 0:13:59.640 there can still be a successful outcome here. But it 0:13:59.720 --> 0:14:02.560 is a sign of how these two sides, even though 0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:05.520 they used to negotiating with each other, they obviously don't 0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:07.120 see isoi with each other. 0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:10.520 Well, if you're speaking music to my diplomatic reporter's heart, 0:14:10.600 --> 0:14:12.760 because I have also been trying to explain to folks 0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:14.760 that just because they're in the same city doesn't mean 0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:16.760 they're in the same room. Even if you see a 0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:19.120 photo of them, that doesn't mean that's where the negotiations 0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:22.000 are taking place. Normally with Iran, previously, when the Qataris 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:25.200 and the Omanis have been moderating. They've been doing exactly 0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:27.920 what Philip was saying, essentially passing notes back and forth, 0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:28.840 delivering terms. 0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:31.520 But Philip, you know this, that takes a long time. 0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:33.160 And when I've interviewed. 0:14:33.480 --> 0:14:37.240 High profile diplomats who facilitated these talks, even they express 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:39.960 frustration about how long indirect talks take. 0:14:40.800 --> 0:14:43.640 It's getting late there. They're not even like really going 0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:45.920 with this. What are they going to get done. 0:14:45.840 --> 0:14:47.480 In the day that they've laid out? Do you think 0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:48.880 these are going to drag on? Or do you think 0:14:48.880 --> 0:14:51.000 they're going to say this is great, let's try again 0:14:51.040 --> 0:14:51.440 next week. 0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:56.920 Well, okay, It all depends on what you might consider 0:14:57.000 --> 0:14:59.880 a measure of success in these talks. From the Pakistanis, 0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:03.680 they as mediators are already very proud. I can tell 0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:05.880 you that they are hosting these talks in the first place, 0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:09.080 and that they are seen as the country responsible for 0:15:09.240 --> 0:15:13.440 bringing this ceasefire to a reality in the first place. 0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:16.960 So for the organizers here, maybe a sign of success 0:15:17.080 --> 0:15:20.520 would be for these two delegations yes to meet, maybe indirectly, 0:15:20.640 --> 0:15:23.520 maybe directly, at a very high level, and for them 0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:26.640 to get along just about enough for there to be 0:15:27.080 --> 0:15:31.560 further technical talks as they're called. This means that lower 0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:35.000 ranked delegations might still remain here in Islamabad, or some 0:15:35.200 --> 0:15:38.480 might be flown in from Tehran and from Washington, for example, 0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:40.560 and that they will then be able to hash out 0:15:40.600 --> 0:15:43.320 some of the crucial differences. How does one come to 0:15:43.400 --> 0:15:47.680 an understanding when the United States wants the nuclear program 0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:51.280 in Iran curbed or almost halted entirely, and when Iran 0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:54.880 says it has a right to a nuclear program. 0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:56.600 How do they get to an actual agreement? 0:15:56.720 --> 0:15:59.400 How the Strait of Hormues might be reopened when the 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:02.200 United States it says it has to be open to all, 0:16:02.320 --> 0:16:03.880 or even the United States might want to make some 0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:07.600 money with it, and Iran says that it wants control 0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:10.480 over the straight and actually makes some money with it, 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:12.440 as it has been doing over the last few weeks 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:16.480 in the first place, huge differences between these two countries, obviously, 0:16:16.600 --> 0:16:18.840 but that doesn't mean that there can't be some kind 0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:20.560 of a successful outcome. 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:22.360 And that's diplomatic speak as well. 0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:25.480 You might not come to a huge signed agreement here 0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:28.480 later tonight here in Islamabad, but you might see the 0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:31.640 two delegations saying, you know what, we have enough of 0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:34.600 an understanding to keep on meeting and to keep on 0:16:34.760 --> 0:16:35.800 working on this whole thing. 0:16:36.000 --> 0:16:40.320 Bill Crowther, Associated Press International Correspondent joining us from Islamabad. 0:16:40.360 --> 0:16:42.360 I want to go back to Katherine Lucy, who is 0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:45.560 our White House correspondent joining us right now, and just 0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:49.360 Catherine bring you into the conversation about the question of success. 0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:52.120 And we heard from Philip just now, Okay, what success 0:16:52.120 --> 0:16:55.000 could look like to Pakistan and from a diplomatic angle, 0:16:55.400 --> 0:16:58.760 but how does JD Vance return from this trip and 0:16:58.880 --> 0:16:59.960 say that was successful? 0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:00.880 What does that look like? 0:17:02.640 --> 0:17:04.320 I mean, I think there's a lot of what if 0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:07.439 baked into that question, right, But I think one thing 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:10.960 we've seen from President Trump that could extend here is 0:17:11.080 --> 0:17:13.480 that he is very good at sort of picking the 0:17:13.560 --> 0:17:16.000 things that he wants to emphasize and trying to declare 0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:21.480 wins when he can. If there is progress, I think 0:17:21.640 --> 0:17:24.560 that is what they will point to, right right, So 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:27.840 if they can say we've moved forward on this talk 0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:31.000 continue you know, this was a good first day. I mean, 0:17:31.160 --> 0:17:33.119 and of course obviously if there's more, they will they 0:17:33.280 --> 0:17:35.280 if they if they reach a full deal, I think, 0:17:35.359 --> 0:17:39.359 you know, that's obviously a big win for them. But 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:42.200 I think as long as they can cite that this 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:45.239 is moving forward, I think they will try, and they 0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:46.960 could try and sort of argue that that was a 0:17:47.320 --> 0:17:48.080 was a good day. 0:17:48.800 --> 0:17:50.680 Ethan quickly before we have to let you go. 0:17:52.240 --> 0:17:55.560 Does Benjamin that nawho want these negotiations to be successful? 0:17:58.359 --> 0:17:58.800 I guess it. 0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:02.320 Depends on how you define success. If success means that 0:18:02.520 --> 0:18:05.840 the American demands that in the program they put forward 0:18:06.280 --> 0:18:10.240 an ending of all enrichment, the ending of the nuclear program, 0:18:10.359 --> 0:18:13.560 the ending of the ballistic program that cut off from 0:18:13.600 --> 0:18:17.240 the proxies, then I think he'd be delighted. He said 0:18:17.320 --> 0:18:19.720 so from the beginning, you know, and if a diplomatic 0:18:19.760 --> 0:18:23.040 solution can do it, great, But the likelihood, of course, 0:18:23.119 --> 0:18:25.159 given where we are, is that those things will not 0:18:25.400 --> 0:18:27.920 emerge from this. And in that sense, i'd say you're 0:18:27.960 --> 0:18:31.600 right to ask the question that he remains skeptical, and 0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:34.520 of course for him, for Israelis, it's a much more 0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:39.720 immediate danger from their perspective to have Iran back on 0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:43.840 the horse and agreeing to make money in the Strait 0:18:43.920 --> 0:18:47.959 and so on. So certainly a fair amount of concern 0:18:48.080 --> 0:18:50.480 here that this may happen in a way that will 0:18:50.520 --> 0:18:52.199 not be good for this country. 0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:53.040 All right. 0:18:53.160 --> 0:18:56.439 Ethan Browner are Israel BUA chief and Catherine Lucy are 0:18:56.480 --> 0:18:57.240 White House corispondent. 0:18:57.320 --> 0:18:58.280 Thank you both so much. 0:19:00.560 --> 0:19:03.119 Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend right 0:19:03.200 --> 0:19:17.480 after this, Welcome back to Bloomberg this weekend. 0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:18.920 I'm Chrisina Raffini. 0:19:18.840 --> 0:19:19.960 And I'm Tim Stenebeck. 0:19:20.320 --> 0:19:21.680 What's going on with airlines? 0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:22.760 I don't know. 0:19:22.920 --> 0:19:25.439 It's so expensive and I hate flying, and I always 0:19:25.440 --> 0:19:27.119 want to upgrade, and then I'm too cheap to do 0:19:27.240 --> 0:19:27.399 I do. 0:19:27.640 --> 0:19:29.160 For as much as I've travel, there's been a fifty 0:19:29.200 --> 0:19:31.800 plus countries. I hate flying. Ika do it, but I 0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:32.359 don't like it. 0:19:33.119 --> 0:19:34.040 We're gonna have to work on that. 0:19:34.160 --> 0:19:35.800 I know there's going to be I feel like there's 0:19:35.800 --> 0:19:37.280 a lot of travel at your near future. 0:19:37.920 --> 0:19:38.280 I'll go. 0:19:38.720 --> 0:19:41.480 I just want to upgrade myself, but it's getting too expensive. 0:19:41.119 --> 0:19:41.399 To do that. 0:19:41.600 --> 0:19:44.240 Well, that's why we're bringing in Katie Nastro. She's the 0:19:44.400 --> 0:19:47.200 going dot com travel expert, and we're talking about not 0:19:47.440 --> 0:19:50.680 just rising energy prices, but what these airlines are doing 0:19:50.720 --> 0:19:53.440 as a result of these rising energy prices. We've heard 0:19:53.440 --> 0:19:56.000 from a few airlines recently Jet Blue, Delta among them. 0:19:56.280 --> 0:19:58.359 They're not just raising ticket prices to deal with this, 0:19:58.480 --> 0:20:01.919 but raising bag fees to do this. Why are they 0:20:02.040 --> 0:20:06.640 raising prices in both areas when airline tickets are so dynamic. 0:20:06.280 --> 0:20:06.800 To begin with. 0:20:07.440 --> 0:20:10.280 Yeah, look, you know, two things can be true at once. 0:20:10.440 --> 0:20:13.560 You know, the price of airfare can rise, cheap flights 0:20:13.600 --> 0:20:16.920 can also exist, But that doesn't necessarily mean that that 0:20:17.320 --> 0:20:21.280