1 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: What's a friends and welcome into Fantasy Pros on the 2 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball Channel. 3 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:09,840 Speaker 2: I am Chris Welsh. 4 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:13,119 Speaker 1: That is Joe Rico, and today we have the four 5 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: riskiest players for twenty twenty six when you enter those 6 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 1: draft rooms. Are these all players you need to avoid? Well, 7 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:24,239 Speaker 1: there's some big names on here. Specifically, we're gonna come 8 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 1: out the gates hot. These four players might be land 9 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:30,640 Speaker 1: mines to your drafts this coming season, and we will 10 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:32,599 Speaker 1: talk it all out me and Joe Rico. Make sure 11 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:34,239 Speaker 1: when you're prepping for those drafts. By the way, to 12 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: go to Fantasy Pros, get all your draft prep in 13 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 1: from the Draft Wizard to all the notes, the ADP, 14 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 1: the ECR. We got everything covered. Go and check it 15 00:00:42,680 --> 00:00:46,200 Speaker 1: out today on Fantasy Pros Joe Rico land mindes. 16 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:49,160 Speaker 2: How prevalent do you think. 17 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:51,320 Speaker 1: There really are land minds? And where do you think 18 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:53,959 Speaker 1: they stop in drafts? Because it's hard to argue that 19 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: you know a player land mine is really there in 20 00:00:57,040 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 1: the one sixties and by the way, what we obviously 21 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: mean by that is a player that is risky and 22 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:03,279 Speaker 1: kind of blow up your draft strategy. Do you think 23 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 1: land mind stop after the third round? The fifth round, 24 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 1: the eighth round. 25 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:10,279 Speaker 3: What do you think I play in more deeper leagues. 26 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:12,040 Speaker 3: So I think if you're playing in like a fifteen 27 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 3: team league, maybe it's the top two hundred or so picks, 28 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:18,759 Speaker 3: because those are still real cornerstones for those deeper league teams. 29 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 3: If you're talking about standard ten and twelve team leagues, 30 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 3: i'd say inside of the top one hundred and fifty 31 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:26,399 Speaker 3: picks or so, maybe top one hundred and twenty five. 32 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,320 Speaker 3: You really want to be careful not take too many chances. 33 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:31,919 Speaker 3: You know this old saying. You can't win your draft 34 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:33,959 Speaker 3: in the first couple of rounds, but you can certainly 35 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 3: lose it. So it's definitely the earlier picks that you 36 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:38,960 Speaker 3: have to focus in on in terms of who can bust. 37 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 3: But I think that it probably extends out to roughly 38 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 3: that one twenty five to maybe one seventy five range, 39 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 3: depending on what kind of format you're playing in. 40 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 1: All right, well we're going to get through our four. 41 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 1: We'd love to hear from you guys, drop in the 42 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 1: comments the biggest land mines, riskiest players to draft before 43 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 1: we do. We do want to do a giveaway before 44 00:01:57,840 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 1: we get into these players, and here you go for 45 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:03,040 Speaker 1: if you want a chance to win this black Fantasy 46 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 1: Baseball Trophy, the crown jewel of any fantasy baseball league, 47 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 1: courtesy of our friends over at Trophy Smack, the number 48 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: one destination for epic fantasy sports hardware than this is 49 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 1: your shot. This stunning black trophy features high quality metal 50 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 1: columns and it sits on a nineteen year perpetual base 51 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 1: so you can engrave your league champion. 52 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 2: Year after year after year. 53 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 1: It's not just a prize, it's a legacy piece. To enter, 54 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:29,640 Speaker 1: all you've got to do is subscribe to the Fantasy 55 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 1: Pros Fantasy Baseball YouTube channel right now and drop a 56 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 1: comment below on any of our videos or this one. 57 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 1: Like I said, you can drop your riskiest players and 58 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 1: guess what. If you're subscribed and you made that comment, 59 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 1: you're entered. 60 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 2: That's it. 61 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 1: We'll be announcing a winner right here on the channel, 62 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 1: so be sure to turn on notifications so you don't 63 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:51,640 Speaker 1: miss your chance to claim this incredible prize. Four players 64 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 1: that are risky to draft this year in land minds, 65 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:56,919 Speaker 1: We've got two each. Joe, you are going to come 66 00:02:56,960 --> 00:03:01,680 Speaker 1: hot out the gates with the highest the highest rank 67 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 1: of any player and frankly he is not so divisive 68 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 1: after he hit the sixty plus homers, but can he 69 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 1: repeat it? Your number one avoid for twenty twenty six 70 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:15,720 Speaker 1: is who It's Cal Rawley. 71 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 3: And I'm not denying how brilliant he was last year, 72 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:21,399 Speaker 3: sixty home runs. It was maybe the greatest season ever 73 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:25,680 Speaker 3: from a catcher. But you can very rarely expect players 74 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 3: coming off of massive career years like this to repeat them, 75 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 3: and especially when the price is just so much higher 76 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 3: than it has ever been. Whether you're talking single catcher leagues, 77 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 3: two catcher leagues, deep league, shallow leagues, cal Rawley is 78 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 3: a top twenty pick this year. If you're playing in 79 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 3: a two catcher league, and a lot of my leagues 80 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 3: are two catch or fourmats, you can maybe make the 81 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 3: case for him. You lock down one of those early names. 82 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 3: It's almost like a super flex fantasy football league. You 83 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 3: take one of the quarterbacks really early. But in single 84 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 3: catcher leagues where most people are playing, there's no need 85 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:58,720 Speaker 3: to do that at all because the catcher pool, as 86 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 3: we've talked about on a lot of shows this year, 87 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 3: is deeper than it's ever been. There are maybe sixteen 88 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:08,080 Speaker 3: or seventeen catchers that you feel really really good about, 89 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 3: even Carter Jensen, who's a massively talented young guy. Outside 90 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 3: of the top fifteen names, you can buy back in 91 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 3: on a Logan o'hapi or a Tyler Stevenson, Dylan Dingler. 92 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:21,719 Speaker 3: These guys are in the twenties in terms of catcher rankings. 93 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:23,800 Speaker 3: It's just such a deep position that I don't really 94 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 3: feel the need to take a guy super early in 95 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,479 Speaker 3: cal Rawley who could hit you thirty two home runs 96 00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 3: kind of give you that twenty twenty four season again, 97 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 3: even if he goes thirty five home runs one hundred rbi, 98 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 3: if that batting average comes back down to the two 99 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 3: to twenty range, I think that he is going to bust. 100 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 3: I don't even think it's much of a question here. 101 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 3: The price is just so high for him to return 102 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 3: that value. It would take a lot, both from volume 103 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 3: and from a performance standpoint for cal Rawley to meet 104 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:50,359 Speaker 3: a second round valuation. I just think it's very unlikely 105 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 3: to happen again. 106 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 1: Forty four homers, eighty eight runs, one hundred and eleven 107 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 1: RBIs eight stolen bases. That is the bats projection for 108 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 1: cal ROWI that's not a bust. Now the batting average 109 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:06,720 Speaker 1: is the biggest question, But just a couple things because 110 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 1: I don't want to be like this massive defender. 111 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:11,279 Speaker 2: Of cal Rally because I have zeroed. 112 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:13,360 Speaker 1: Out in my mind that he is not going to 113 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:16,680 Speaker 1: reach the sixty likely not going to reach the fifty marker. 114 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:19,800 Speaker 1: But that's never really been my case. That why you 115 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 1: could draft cal Raley. I also hate the second half, 116 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 1: like there's kind of a figured outness that happened to him. 117 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:29,720 Speaker 1: He hit two twenty nine post All Star Break after 118 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:33,360 Speaker 1: hitting two fifty nine, projections have him as a two 119 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 1: twenty five, two thirty five hitter, Like that's not really great. 120 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:38,599 Speaker 1: But the one thing I would push back against is 121 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 1: you're really hyper focused on You kept saying catcher, But 122 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 1: there are players, especially in the first couple round you 123 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 1: don't really care about position. In the first couple of rounds, 124 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 1: you're drafting the best players. You're drafting the stats. Kyle 125 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 1: Schwarber is going and he doesn't have a position. I 126 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 1: mean some links, he does have outfield qualification, but you're 127 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 1: drafting him as a util So I actually don't think 128 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:01,279 Speaker 1: you have to make any argue with cal Rawley about 129 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:05,080 Speaker 1: being a catcher. It's about getting forty plus homers, one 130 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:10,920 Speaker 1: hundred RBI, ninety runs. That's the argument. So I personally 131 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 1: disagree with the focus on catching, But where I do. 132 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:16,280 Speaker 2: Agree is that if you have. 133 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:18,600 Speaker 1: Expectations of getting ninety five percent of what you got 134 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 1: last year, you're going to be disappointed. I'm also very 135 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:23,720 Speaker 1: worried about what the batting average is going to look like. 136 00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 1: So can you stomach a two thirty batting average with 137 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:29,480 Speaker 1: your forty homers? I think he's a shoe in for 138 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:32,279 Speaker 1: forty homers. He increased his barrel percentage, he got the 139 00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:34,159 Speaker 1: ball in the air more than he'd ever done. He 140 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 1: dramatically pulled the ball more than ever And that's kind 141 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:39,799 Speaker 1: of being ignored in the conversation about cal Rawley. 142 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 2: A thirty eight. 143 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 1: Percent pulled air percentage with a nineteen percent barrel on 144 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 1: a guy that just hit sixty homers. I don't think 145 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 1: he can just be like, yeah, if he hits thirty 146 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:50,480 Speaker 1: two homers, like no, that is a forty plus home 147 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:54,919 Speaker 1: run profile. But the batting in the contact is inconsistent, 148 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 1: and that's the worry, And it is a really high cost. 149 00:06:57,480 --> 00:06:58,719 Speaker 2: That you have on him. 150 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:00,919 Speaker 1: But you're some people take Kyle sh Warbur in that 151 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 1: same general range. But I think as an in general, 152 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:05,919 Speaker 1: people get very hyper focused. I gotta get if you 153 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:08,000 Speaker 1: are only looking at it from a catcher standpoint, Joe, 154 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 1: You're right like there are tons of great catchers that 155 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 1: you can get exponentially cheaper. I think you've got to 156 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 1: be focused on the bat more than the position. But 157 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 1: the bat's got some big questions and that might be 158 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 1: a big land mine to your team. As you pointed out, now, 159 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 1: I know you agree with my first name on here. 160 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 1: This is going to be a big old agreement that 161 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 1: you and I have. But I think one of the 162 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 1: biggest land mines out there right now is Oneal Cruz. 163 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 1: And ONEO Cruz did have one of those big giant 164 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 1: bombs he hit in the WBC and gets people excited. 165 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 1: Last year he was up at the tippy top of 166 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 1: stolen bases. He hit twenty homers, and frankly, I've always 167 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 1: been a fan of ONEO Cruz. I thought, man, if 168 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 1: he was going to cut that strikeout rate down and 169 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 1: he barreled, that was a big thing. A couple of 170 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: years ago he was like, oh four percent barrel In short, 171 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 1: can he do it fifteen percent barrel. Awesome, he did that, 172 00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: but Oneal Cruz does not justify a top one hundred 173 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 1: draft pick. He's just not into that spot right now. 174 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 1: He hit two hundred with an XBA that's not much better. 175 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 1: One of the worst strikeout rates thirty two percent that 176 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 1: got worse year over year. He's not getting the ball 177 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 1: in the air. He is bareing the crap out of 178 00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 1: the ball, but his inability to get the ball in 179 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 1: the air while pulling it. Yes, those big hard hit 180 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 1: numbers are going to create homers, but it doesn't create 181 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 1: like I don't know, like Riley Green. Like Riley Green's 182 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 1: got really worrisome strikeout numbers, but the guy gets the 183 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:32,600 Speaker 1: ball in the air and he gets thirty six plus homers. 184 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 1: Like O'Neill, Cruz is kind of his worst enemy, and frankly, 185 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 1: defensively have been a problem as well. So I've seen 186 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 1: him go in front of some pretty big named players. 187 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 1: I've seen him go into the seventies and eighties, and 188 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 1: I think he's a landmine for your team because he 189 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 1: can be in albatross for your batting average can sink that. 190 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 1: I don't know what the runs and RBI are going 191 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 1: to look like and he's gonna have some pretty bad months. Yes, 192 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:55,560 Speaker 1: we'll have a couple good counting stats, but I don't 193 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 1: think you need to chase it. So I think the 194 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,560 Speaker 1: chase of O'Neal Cruz is a landmine. And Joe, I 195 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: know you are with me. 196 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, Like I could see a world where O'Neil Cruz 197 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:06,240 Speaker 3: ends up being really a profitable pick in this range, 198 00:09:06,280 --> 00:09:09,200 Speaker 3: but that would mean that he changed a lot over 199 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 3: the course of the offseason, and he needed to change 200 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 3: quite a bit. He hit two hundred with a thirty 201 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:17,440 Speaker 3: two percent strikeout rate. It's just there's a lot of 202 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:19,600 Speaker 3: problems here. But I think the biggest one, as you 203 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:21,439 Speaker 3: alluded to, is just the amount of balls he hits 204 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:23,720 Speaker 3: on the ground. It doesn't matter how hard you hit 205 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:25,440 Speaker 3: the ball if it's on the ground fifty percent of 206 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 3: the time, seriously, like every year of his career, for 207 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:29,960 Speaker 3: the last couple of years anyway. It's like a ninety 208 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:34,559 Speaker 3: five average exit velocity, which is insane, seventeen percent barrel rate, 209 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 3: fifty five hard hit. If you're killing ants every time 210 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 3: he hit the ball, it doesn't matter. And that's what 211 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 3: has happened with O'Neil Cruz. Yeah, out onto that he's 212 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 3: not even a good defensive player. He wasn't a good 213 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 3: defensive shortstop. He's not a good defensive outfielder. I don't 214 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 3: know where O'Neil Cruz's place in baseball is over the 215 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 3: next couple of seasons if he doesn't drastically change his makeup. 216 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:55,520 Speaker 3: I think that there's a world where he lifts the 217 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 3: ball more and gives you a thirty thirty season and 218 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:00,840 Speaker 3: he's fantastic. But I just don't see it as a 219 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:04,199 Speaker 3: likely outcome if you're getting him heavily discounted, if he's 220 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:06,439 Speaker 3: going into like the one like I'm looking over the 221 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:09,120 Speaker 3: last couple of weeks in the NFBC, his latest pick 222 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 3: is one twenty eight. I could justify it at one 223 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 3: twenty eight. The earliest he's gone his pick sixty eight. 224 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 3: So there is still there are still definitely believers in 225 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:21,080 Speaker 3: O'Neil Cruz, but considering the depth of outfield, especially in 226 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 3: that range, you're taking him ahead of guys like Saya, 227 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 3: Suzuki Springer who I really like, Luis Robert, Michael Harris, 228 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:31,200 Speaker 3: Joe Adel Said, Aint Ralfhaela, ta Oscar Hernandez. A lot 229 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 3: safer options I think are going in that range. So 230 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:35,880 Speaker 3: I'm not going to be taking O'Neal cruise on a 231 00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 3: lot of teams. If he drastically falls in one of 232 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 3: my big drafts this month, I might be tempted, but 233 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 3: not a target whatsoever. 234 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I like how you said it, because this 235 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:45,440 Speaker 1: is my argument to him has always been, like, he 236 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 1: is a change or two away from being able to 237 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:50,680 Speaker 1: be like this elite hitter that you want to you 238 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 1: want to take a shot on if he gets the 239 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 1: ball in the air and starts pulling it. But the 240 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:57,120 Speaker 1: problem is his ability to make contact continuously gets worse. 241 00:10:57,360 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: He is not pulling the ball, he's striking out more. 242 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:01,720 Speaker 1: So we don't have anything to really build off of 243 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 1: except we're like, hey, this is a freak talented player, 244 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 1: but we don't have any like things to be like, Oh, 245 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 1: this is why things will be better. If he does 246 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,839 Speaker 1: make a couple of adjustments. He could get a ton better. 247 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:13,120 Speaker 1: If he gets a ball off the ground all of 248 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:14,680 Speaker 1: a sudden, he could be a two forty hitter and 249 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 1: then he's going to smash this. But right now he has. 250 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:19,000 Speaker 2: A big ability to hurt. 251 00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: Your team more than he's going to help it, where 252 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 1: you know, he takes out the strikeouts and the batting 253 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:25,840 Speaker 1: average and the run and RBI start to sink you 254 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 1: and you're just like hyper focus on the power and 255 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 1: stolen bases that isn't going to help you on. That's 256 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 1: kind of why he's a landmine. We've got two more 257 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:35,320 Speaker 1: and we both got pictures, and frankly, we've kind of 258 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:37,160 Speaker 1: got a theme to both of these guys because I 259 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 1: think there's a similar ish to them, if you will, 260 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 1: and why we think they're kind of land mines to 261 00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:46,120 Speaker 1: your team based off of their still going kind of high. 262 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:48,000 Speaker 1: Mine's a little bit of a bigger name. But Joe, 263 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:50,720 Speaker 1: why don't you kick us off with this starting pitcher 264 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 1: that you're straight avoiding in drafts. 265 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:55,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, I hate to do it because he's super talented, 266 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:58,840 Speaker 3: but Brandon Woodruff is just way too risky to draft. 267 00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:01,680 Speaker 3: Over the last three seasons combined, he has thrown about 268 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty innings. When he returned last year, 269 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,080 Speaker 3: he was really good, but it took so long. You know, 270 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:10,040 Speaker 3: leading off, regular leading off viewers will remember Joey p 271 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 3: had the Dark Joe segment for Brandon Woodrooff outings whenever 272 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 3: we talked about him, because it just seemed like he 273 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:16,640 Speaker 3: was never going to come back, a guy who we 274 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 3: thought was going to be available relatively early in the season, 275 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 3: and then he didn't end up debuting until July. So 276 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 3: this year it's kind of the same song and dance 277 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:27,079 Speaker 3: with Brandon Woodroff. He says that he might not be ready. 278 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 3: The team isn't sure if he's going to start in 279 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 3: the rotation. We're already dealing with setbacks, and I think 280 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 3: one of the biggest things is that the Brewers have 281 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:35,440 Speaker 3: a good amount of starting pitching depth. Now the news 282 00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 3: about Logan Henderson's having some elbow soreness is not great, 283 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:42,200 Speaker 3: but they've got Sprout, They've got Kyle Harrison, Chad Patrick, Mazerowski. 284 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:45,160 Speaker 3: Maybe dl Hall eventually works his way back in at 285 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 3: some point, Probably not, but they are a deep, deep rotation. 286 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:51,559 Speaker 3: I don't think there's any need to push Brandon Woodroff 287 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:54,240 Speaker 3: out of the gate. And yet Brandon Woodriff's price still 288 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:56,200 Speaker 3: hasn't really come down that much. If you're looking at 289 00:12:56,200 --> 00:13:00,319 Speaker 3: the Fantasy pros consensus, adp won ten. He's going ahead 290 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 3: of Emmachian and I know Welch is a big Emmachian 291 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:05,560 Speaker 3: guy as well. That's kind of crazy to me, and 292 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:07,320 Speaker 3: maybe he'll start to come down a little bit more. 293 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:10,720 Speaker 3: But you're paying a lot for what could be sixty 294 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 3: seventy innings, And you know, Sporor and I had a 295 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:15,160 Speaker 3: disagreement the other day. Spor thinks if he gives you 296 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:17,680 Speaker 3: seventy or eighty innings that are good, then you'll take it. 297 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:19,680 Speaker 3: But you have no guarantee how many innings you're going 298 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:21,320 Speaker 3: to get. You don't know when they're going to come, 299 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 3: and you don't know what quality they are going to 300 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:25,600 Speaker 3: be when he's out there. So Woodriff is better left 301 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:27,480 Speaker 3: for somebody else. You're going to get so many injured 302 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:29,720 Speaker 3: pitchers on your team throughout the season, it's better to 303 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:31,160 Speaker 3: not start stacking them up in March. 304 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:33,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't agree that. 305 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:35,079 Speaker 1: I like, I don't really want to make a case 306 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:37,600 Speaker 1: for anybody giving me seventy innings is a good thing, 307 00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:40,320 Speaker 1: especially at the cost. So I'm going to disagree with that. 308 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 1: The Fantasy Pro Consensus EIGHTYP has him around the one 309 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:46,959 Speaker 1: to twenty, so you might have been looking at a ECR. 310 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:49,320 Speaker 1: But here's maybe what's more important look at some of 311 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:51,720 Speaker 1: the pitchers he's going ahead of right now, He's going 312 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:55,240 Speaker 1: ahead of Cam Schlitler, He's going ahead of Lodolo. How 313 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:57,679 Speaker 1: about Zach Wheeler, you know, I mean Woodriff and him 314 00:13:57,720 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 1: might miss the same amount of time. We would not 315 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 1: put those in the same space together. He's going ahead 316 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 1: of Michael King. You mentioned she and Pepio. Like, I 317 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:08,320 Speaker 1: don't think the juice is worth the squeeze, especially if 318 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:10,960 Speaker 1: we're trying to have a conversation. Our seventy innings worthwhile, 319 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:14,360 Speaker 1: so passing on pictures even though he is uber talented, 320 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:15,520 Speaker 1: the short stints of. 321 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 2: What we saw the strikeouts were back. 322 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 1: I personally love Brandon Woodruff, but like, it's not worth 323 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 1: it right now. He is currently and they are currently 324 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 1: babying him with some of the injuries he's still dealing with. 325 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:30,600 Speaker 1: Setbacks seem kind of imminent, and the cost doesn't make sense. 326 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 1: The cost there are fifteen pitchers below that I think 327 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,080 Speaker 1: just make more. I mean, Sandial Contra is going off 328 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 1: as the forty seventh pitcher down there. He doesn't have 329 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:41,840 Speaker 1: the same strikeout equity, but he can gets two hundred 330 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:44,520 Speaker 1: innings of like a sub four era. Like I think 331 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 1: I'm gonna take two hundred innings of Sandiel Contra over 332 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 1: seventy eighty ninety of Brandon Woodruff. So I think I 333 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: agree with you on that, And in the exact same 334 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 1: vein here, my pick is going higher than Brandon Woodruff. 335 00:14:56,600 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 1: He is projected on ATC for twenty two starts right now, 336 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 1: and he is going off as pitcher twenty five overall 337 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 1: starting pitcher twenty five. It's Blake Snell. Gotta love Blake Snell, 338 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:12,480 Speaker 1: unlike Brendon Woodruff. I mean, even though Brenner Woodff is good, 339 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 1: I think Blake Snell sits more in the Zach Wheeler 340 00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:17,520 Speaker 1: world of like, if you were to get a full 341 00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:20,080 Speaker 1: season out of Black Blake Snell, if they guaranteed you 342 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 1: that Snell is gonna have thirty three starts his top 343 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 1: ten pitcher, like, that's what he ends up doing. Though 344 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 1: there are some, you know, some times that things get weird. 345 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:31,680 Speaker 1: Last year he'd started off late, he needed an adjustment period, 346 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:34,440 Speaker 1: and then he goes off. I don't think it makes 347 00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 1: sense for Blake Snell to be a top one hundred 348 00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:40,840 Speaker 1: overall player, which he is, that he's projected at twenty 349 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:43,600 Speaker 1: two innings that there isn't a real timetable, that they've 350 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 1: got a six man rotation, that they've got depth, and 351 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 1: that they're playing for November. He is so talented, but 352 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:52,800 Speaker 1: the discount doesn't make sense to me for a pitcher 353 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: that is already going in injured, and I think that's 354 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 1: one of the riskiest things you can do, especially when 355 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: you're getting high cost. Not to be a hypocrite, I'm 356 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:02,920 Speaker 1: definitely interested in Shane McClanahan this year, but he's going 357 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:03,800 Speaker 1: well outside. 358 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:05,800 Speaker 2: The top fifty. Overall of pitchers, Blake. 359 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 1: Snell is a top twenty five. He is the twenty 360 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 1: fifth on Fantasy Pro's ADP. He's going ahead of Nolan McLain, 361 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 1: He's going ahead of Ury Perez, Spencer Strider, is Divisive, 362 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 1: and a bunch of other players. From a one to 363 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:21,640 Speaker 1: one talent perspective, Blake Snell is more talented than any 364 00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:23,800 Speaker 1: one of those players, but he's got an injury. He's 365 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 1: got an injury history of not going deep in and 366 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 1: a team that is not motivated to push him to 367 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 1: twenty five or thirty starts if they don't need to. 368 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 1: They got a bunch of guys in the back burner 369 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 1: that they can help with this, so they're going to 370 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 1: slow roll this with the injury. I think it's kind 371 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 1: of a landmine, especially based on costs right now, and 372 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:41,560 Speaker 1: I am firmly avoiding drafting Blake Snell, But what do 373 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:41,920 Speaker 1: you think? 374 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 3: I completely agree with everything you said. The only situation 375 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 3: where I could maybe see taking him is if he 376 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:51,400 Speaker 3: dramatically falls. And again, just looking at recent ADP data, 377 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:54,440 Speaker 3: two thirty nine he went a picked two thirty nine 378 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 3: as the latest draft pick that I'm seeing. I could 379 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:59,040 Speaker 3: be talked in at pick two thirty nine. However, not 380 00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 3: happy that's not happen very often. People are still taking 381 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:04,320 Speaker 3: him with an ADP of around one thirty one forty 382 00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:07,240 Speaker 3: one fifty. It's falling a little bit. But another thing 383 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:09,880 Speaker 3: with Blake Snell that you mentioned, if he makes thirty starts, 384 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:12,199 Speaker 3: he's a top ten pitcher. The only two times in 385 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:15,200 Speaker 3: Blake Snell's career that he's made thirty starts cy Young 386 00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 3: Winner each time in each league. He's immensely talented in 387 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:22,040 Speaker 3: that aspect. But we also forget about the whip detriment 388 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 3: that Blake Snell is a one twenty two career whip. 389 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:27,440 Speaker 3: He was one twenty six last year. There's only three 390 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 3: seasons in his entire career where he's been under one twenty, 391 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:33,359 Speaker 3: and one of those is one nineteen. So you're getting 392 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:37,160 Speaker 3: shaky volume. Maybe it's twenty starts, maybe it's fifteen, maybe 393 00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:39,719 Speaker 3: it's six. You have no idea. When he's out there, 394 00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:41,960 Speaker 3: he's probably going to hurt your whip. Now, he could 395 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,200 Speaker 3: start ten games and win nine of them for the Dodgers, 396 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:46,760 Speaker 3: but it's not terribly likely that Blake Snell is going 397 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:49,159 Speaker 3: to return value for you unless you are getting him 398 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:51,000 Speaker 3: at a steep discount. I think if you are seeing 399 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:53,520 Speaker 3: him in a draft beyond pick two hundred, I'd be 400 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 3: willing to take a shot on him there. But where 401 00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 3: he's going, I don't think the price has come down 402 00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 3: nearly far enough. 403 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:01,679 Speaker 1: No, and I mean at the low best value. I 404 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:04,399 Speaker 1: guess is like fan tracks looking at the ADP on 405 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:07,960 Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros, but ESPN is the most expensive. There's still 406 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,359 Speaker 1: a couple of Yahoo and rts have him inside the 407 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 1: top one hundred. Here's one thing I'm gonna throw at 408 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 1: you real quick. Who would you rather have? 409 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:14,159 Speaker 3: This? 410 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:16,439 Speaker 1: Is the guy that is right above him in ADP 411 00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 1: on Fantasy Pros. There within like three or four picks 412 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:20,760 Speaker 1: of each other, they're on the same team. Would you 413 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 1: rather Blake Snell or show Hao Tani the picture if 414 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 1: it was a if you're playing in a format that 415 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:28,080 Speaker 1: only has show Hao Tani is a pitcher, which one 416 00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:29,520 Speaker 1: would you rather have for the season. 417 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 3: It's a good question. I think right now I would 418 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,120 Speaker 3: probably take Otani just because he's healthy. Me too, take 419 00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:38,159 Speaker 3: the healthy arm. I don't know how many innings I'm 420 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:40,119 Speaker 3: gonna get out of Otani, and Otani's a guy who's 421 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,000 Speaker 3: never getting a two start week. You're gonna get probably 422 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:45,840 Speaker 3: twenty four starts over the course of the season, twenty 423 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 3: three to twenty five, that type of range. But I 424 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:51,400 Speaker 3: don't I can't even guarantee half of that with Blake Snell, 425 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:54,240 Speaker 3: with his injury history, with the fact that the Dodgers, 426 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 3: you know, starting the season with an injury, they are 427 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 3: more likely to want to slow play him. So yeah, 428 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,199 Speaker 3: I think it is show Hayes as that seems we 429 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 3: very rarely ever think of him as a pitcher, But 430 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 3: just as a pitcher, he's still a god. He's still 431 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:07,240 Speaker 3: a top twenty arm. If he's able to give you 432 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:08,919 Speaker 3: twenty five starts for. 433 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:10,119 Speaker 2: A starting pitcher for this year. 434 00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 1: Who would you guys rather have Blake Snell or Show 435 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:14,280 Speaker 1: Hey of tany Drop it in the comments below and 436 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:16,880 Speaker 1: tell us your land minds, the guys that you were avoiding, 437 00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 1: the guys that you think are going to wreck some teams. 438 00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:21,480 Speaker 1: Drop it and the comments below. 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For Joe Rico, 458 00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 2: I'm Chris Welsh. 459 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:10,800 Speaker 1: Thank you guys for hanging out with us, and we'll 460 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,560 Speaker 1: talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros MLB. 461 00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball Podcast. 462 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:19,919 Speaker 2: If you love the show, the best freeway to support 463 00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:20,199 Speaker 2: us is 464 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,639 Speaker 1: By leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, 465 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:27,439 Speaker 1: Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, 466 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 1: and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com 467 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 1: slash Fantasy Pros MLB