1 00:00:15,604 --> 00:00:28,164 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:28,244 --> 00:00:30,684 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova. 3 00:00:30,324 --> 00:00:32,884 Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. Today on the show, we'll talk 4 00:00:32,924 --> 00:00:36,044 Speaker 2: about the markets and how they're reacting to recent actions 5 00:00:36,044 --> 00:00:38,204 Speaker 2: by President Trump. I you know, I'll just say this much. 6 00:00:38,244 --> 00:00:41,044 Speaker 2: You know, I think that Cayman Islands bungalow I was 7 00:00:41,084 --> 00:00:44,204 Speaker 2: hoping to buy has been undermined by the recent performance 8 00:00:44,244 --> 00:00:44,764 Speaker 2: my Furrow and. 9 00:00:44,804 --> 00:00:47,444 Speaker 1: K On a brighter side, Nate, you might have a 10 00:00:47,524 --> 00:00:49,924 Speaker 1: chance to go to an island off the coast of 11 00:00:49,964 --> 00:00:53,284 Speaker 1: Mexico because after that we'll be talking about the return 12 00:00:53,404 --> 00:00:57,044 Speaker 1: of Billy McFarland and Fire Festival Take two. 13 00:00:57,404 --> 00:00:58,884 Speaker 2: Can we pause the show so I can book my 14 00:00:58,924 --> 00:00:59,644 Speaker 2: ticket right now? 15 00:00:59,844 --> 00:01:00,364 Speaker 1: Let's do it. 16 00:01:01,964 --> 00:01:04,284 Speaker 2: We're back. I have a I have a one way 17 00:01:04,324 --> 00:01:06,044 Speaker 2: I I just want to stay there. I don't even 18 00:01:06,044 --> 00:01:08,604 Speaker 2: want took a return flight. It's yeah, So we're now. 19 00:01:08,644 --> 00:01:11,484 Speaker 2: I'm were now all a good gun prepared for Fire 20 00:01:11,524 --> 00:01:13,564 Speaker 2: Festival too, And let's talk on a little bit of 21 00:01:13,884 --> 00:01:19,124 Speaker 2: markets first. 22 00:01:19,844 --> 00:01:23,924 Speaker 1: So right now, as we are recording this, it is Tuesday, 23 00:01:24,124 --> 00:01:27,724 Speaker 1: March fourth, and I'm saying that because Nate, you and 24 00:01:27,764 --> 00:01:29,964 Speaker 1: I have both seen I mean the world has seen 25 00:01:30,204 --> 00:01:33,964 Speaker 1: that economic news in this administration changes very quickly, so 26 00:01:34,004 --> 00:01:38,004 Speaker 1: it's very important to put this in context. So today, Tuesday, 27 00:01:38,844 --> 00:01:42,764 Speaker 1: Trump has announced tariffs twenty five percent across the board 28 00:01:42,884 --> 00:01:47,324 Speaker 1: against Canada and Mexico, ten percent against China. Canada and 29 00:01:47,444 --> 00:01:51,324 Speaker 1: China have announced their own retaliatory tariffs. The markets are 30 00:01:51,604 --> 00:01:54,804 Speaker 1: not happy. Let's talk about what is going on in 31 00:01:54,804 --> 00:01:57,764 Speaker 1: people's heads kind of what is the decision calculus behind this? 32 00:01:58,204 --> 00:02:03,204 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it seems like markets are reacting negatively, 33 00:02:03,284 --> 00:02:05,804 Speaker 2: which is perhaps pretty reasonable. I mean, there are various 34 00:02:05,804 --> 00:02:10,644 Speaker 2: things going on, right, markets like we don't have a 35 00:02:10,684 --> 00:02:12,404 Speaker 2: lot of that. I mean, you know, the stock market 36 00:02:12,444 --> 00:02:15,244 Speaker 2: is not the economy, right. I think the stock market 37 00:02:15,404 --> 00:02:18,004 Speaker 2: sometimes is a better measure of economic vibes, and it's 38 00:02:18,004 --> 00:02:21,564 Speaker 2: a bit mixed. And if you survey, look at surveys 39 00:02:21,724 --> 00:02:26,044 Speaker 2: of hiring managers and CEOs, I mean they're generally pretty 40 00:02:26,044 --> 00:02:30,844 Speaker 2: bullish on Trump. That's one of his bigger constituencies. But yeah, Look, 41 00:02:31,324 --> 00:02:35,364 Speaker 2: according to Polymarket, which I'm an advisor, there is now 42 00:02:35,364 --> 00:02:39,244 Speaker 2: a thirty eight percent chance of a United States recession 43 00:02:39,964 --> 00:02:42,844 Speaker 2: this year in twenty twenty five. That's way up in 44 00:02:42,924 --> 00:02:46,324 Speaker 2: recent days. It had been twenty two percent, which is 45 00:02:46,404 --> 00:02:48,364 Speaker 2: kind of a base rate about one in five years. 46 00:02:48,724 --> 00:02:50,724 Speaker 2: You go into a recesion. The economy can't be forecasted 47 00:02:50,804 --> 00:02:54,644 Speaker 2: very well more than about six months in advance, but 48 00:02:54,764 --> 00:02:57,204 Speaker 2: roughly double to almost forty percent as a result of 49 00:02:57,804 --> 00:03:01,724 Speaker 2: the terriffs, as a result of some consumer sentiment data, 50 00:03:01,804 --> 00:03:04,124 Speaker 2: consumers who do not like the Joe Biden economy. According 51 00:03:04,124 --> 00:03:07,084 Speaker 2: to the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index, it's now 52 00:03:07,164 --> 00:03:09,924 Speaker 2: worse than it was last year, which was bad enough 53 00:03:09,924 --> 00:03:13,444 Speaker 2: to get Biden out in Democrats. I guess Kamala Harris 54 00:03:13,444 --> 00:03:18,124 Speaker 2: eventually ousted from office. So people are reacting to this 55 00:03:19,244 --> 00:03:21,924 Speaker 2: on different loves of the economy, right, and the goodwill 56 00:03:21,964 --> 00:03:25,724 Speaker 2: that Trump has built up with Wall Street types. I think, 57 00:03:26,124 --> 00:03:28,684 Speaker 2: you know, look, maybe there's some naive tea about people 58 00:03:28,724 --> 00:03:30,764 Speaker 2: thinking they have a tear navi ta. I don't know 59 00:03:31,284 --> 00:03:37,844 Speaker 2: about people, but it's a fancy word. But like people 60 00:03:37,884 --> 00:03:40,484 Speaker 2: were on Wall Street where I think naive about the 61 00:03:40,524 --> 00:03:42,164 Speaker 2: fact that like a, I mean, Trump is a guy 62 00:03:42,244 --> 00:03:46,604 Speaker 2: who I'm not sure you'd always say that he does 63 00:03:46,684 --> 00:03:48,884 Speaker 2: what he says he's gonna do, but like he's pretty 64 00:03:49,084 --> 00:03:52,404 Speaker 2: literal about things. There's some decoding and he said, yeah, 65 00:03:52,404 --> 00:03:55,124 Speaker 2: I'm going to have tariffs and kinda a Mexaco beat 66 00:03:55,164 --> 00:03:57,644 Speaker 2: up the kids and if if they'll give me their 67 00:03:57,684 --> 00:04:01,844 Speaker 2: lunch money. And so the other countries are not happy 68 00:04:01,884 --> 00:04:03,804 Speaker 2: about all of this. By the way, we mentioned this 69 00:04:03,884 --> 00:04:08,284 Speaker 2: last week. Friedrich Mertz, the new German chancellor elect, was like, 70 00:04:08,284 --> 00:04:10,964 Speaker 2: I don't want have anything to do with the US anymore. Right, 71 00:04:11,004 --> 00:04:13,524 Speaker 2: that seemed bad to me too. So other countries are 72 00:04:13,644 --> 00:04:19,044 Speaker 2: noticing the domestic politics of you know, giving the bowl 73 00:04:19,084 --> 00:04:21,724 Speaker 2: of your lunch money, so the different levels of this. 74 00:04:21,764 --> 00:04:23,164 Speaker 2: But nobody likes this phenomenon. 75 00:04:23,564 --> 00:04:26,444 Speaker 1: No nobody likes this phenomenon. And I think the markets 76 00:04:26,484 --> 00:04:29,924 Speaker 1: have you know, it's very funny because the markets, I 77 00:04:29,924 --> 00:04:34,404 Speaker 1: think are yo yoing much more than usual because of 78 00:04:34,444 --> 00:04:36,844 Speaker 1: the uncertainty and no one knows, you know, what the 79 00:04:36,884 --> 00:04:39,324 Speaker 1: hell's going to happen, what Trump is actually going to do, 80 00:04:39,404 --> 00:04:42,444 Speaker 1: because they really after the initial right, you remember they 81 00:04:42,484 --> 00:04:46,204 Speaker 1: went down when back in February when Trump was saying, oh, 82 00:04:46,204 --> 00:04:48,644 Speaker 1: We're going to have tariffs, and then they like rallied 83 00:04:48,684 --> 00:04:50,964 Speaker 1: and they more than rallied. They went crazy right when 84 00:04:51,564 --> 00:04:54,124 Speaker 1: it was like, oh right, we always knew that they 85 00:04:54,164 --> 00:04:57,004 Speaker 1: were going to not you know, not have the tariffs. 86 00:04:57,164 --> 00:04:59,204 Speaker 1: They want to believe, right, Like I think that there's 87 00:04:59,244 --> 00:05:01,564 Speaker 1: this market they want to believe in Trump. It's kind 88 00:05:01,564 --> 00:05:03,764 Speaker 1: of what you were saying that Wall Street has been 89 00:05:03,844 --> 00:05:06,124 Speaker 1: on his side and they want the markets to rally, 90 00:05:06,244 --> 00:05:08,604 Speaker 1: and so they've taken every excuse to try to rally. 91 00:05:08,804 --> 00:05:11,324 Speaker 1: And now it was like, oh shit, right the tariffs 92 00:05:11,364 --> 00:05:14,604 Speaker 1: are actually being implemented, and he said they're like done. Right, 93 00:05:15,004 --> 00:05:17,604 Speaker 1: we've implemented the tariffs. That trade war has started. And 94 00:05:17,684 --> 00:05:19,444 Speaker 1: part of me is like, guys, like you should have 95 00:05:19,484 --> 00:05:22,004 Speaker 1: foreseen this, right, this should have been built in. You 96 00:05:22,004 --> 00:05:24,404 Speaker 1: should have you should have known this was coming. So 97 00:05:24,524 --> 00:05:27,884 Speaker 1: now we're seeing this huge correction. Actually NATTEK isn't a 98 00:05:27,884 --> 00:05:32,724 Speaker 1: correction by the technical sense, so we've officially entered a correction. 99 00:05:33,244 --> 00:05:35,924 Speaker 1: And the you know, the reason this is happening, I 100 00:05:35,964 --> 00:05:38,124 Speaker 1: think is because of this disconnect. Right, you want to 101 00:05:38,124 --> 00:05:40,804 Speaker 1: believe in Trump and then he does something like this 102 00:05:40,884 --> 00:05:42,724 Speaker 1: and you're like oops, shit, Like he said he was 103 00:05:42,724 --> 00:05:44,284 Speaker 1: going to do it and then he actually did it. 104 00:05:44,524 --> 00:05:47,284 Speaker 1: He didn't listen to reason because I think that people 105 00:05:47,484 --> 00:05:50,964 Speaker 1: misunderstand that he's actually going to kind of listened to advisors. 106 00:05:50,964 --> 00:05:53,204 Speaker 1: Listen to this and realize this is not the good 107 00:05:53,204 --> 00:05:55,484 Speaker 1: thing that you think it is for the economy. Right. 108 00:05:55,644 --> 00:05:57,764 Speaker 1: Inflation is going to go up, Prices are going to 109 00:05:57,804 --> 00:06:00,684 Speaker 1: go up. Uh, Tariffs on China not a good thing 110 00:06:01,044 --> 00:06:04,004 Speaker 1: because prices are going to go up, you know, are 111 00:06:04,124 --> 00:06:06,604 Speaker 1: our exports are going to suffer? There's there are so 112 00:06:06,724 --> 00:06:10,724 Speaker 1: many downstream effects and people and saying, oh, he'll understand, 113 00:06:10,724 --> 00:06:12,244 Speaker 1: and he won't actually do it, but he did it. 114 00:06:12,604 --> 00:06:17,004 Speaker 1: I think a broader point, though, is that I actually, like, 115 00:06:17,364 --> 00:06:21,604 Speaker 1: I think that Trump is misunderstanding kind of the game 116 00:06:21,644 --> 00:06:24,524 Speaker 1: theory of what he's doing. So fundamentally, you know, we 117 00:06:24,564 --> 00:06:27,724 Speaker 1: talk about game theory a lot on this show. Fundamentally, 118 00:06:27,724 --> 00:06:31,684 Speaker 1: what you want is, you know, you need in order 119 00:06:31,724 --> 00:06:33,644 Speaker 1: to figure out the game and the strategy, you need 120 00:06:33,644 --> 00:06:36,004 Speaker 1: to figure out what the payoff matrix is, right, Like 121 00:06:36,044 --> 00:06:38,684 Speaker 1: that's number one, right, Like to know what game we're playing, 122 00:06:38,684 --> 00:06:40,724 Speaker 1: you need to figure out, Okay, what are the payoffs? Right? 123 00:06:41,084 --> 00:06:43,564 Speaker 1: What's the structure of the game, to figure out what 124 00:06:43,644 --> 00:06:45,644 Speaker 1: quadrant do I want to land and what do I 125 00:06:45,684 --> 00:06:48,444 Speaker 1: want to do? What do I want my policy to 126 00:06:48,684 --> 00:06:53,044 Speaker 1: actually accomplish? And in everything, So I think the economy 127 00:06:53,084 --> 00:06:56,004 Speaker 1: is part of this. But we're seeing this with just 128 00:06:56,444 --> 00:06:59,804 Speaker 1: Trump's America First policy in general, with him kind of 129 00:06:59,964 --> 00:07:03,404 Speaker 1: burning alliances, with the you know, outrageous way that he 130 00:07:03,604 --> 00:07:08,644 Speaker 1: behaved towards Zelonsky, like going back on US promises basically 131 00:07:08,724 --> 00:07:12,124 Speaker 1: just bridges left and right and saying we don't need allies. 132 00:07:12,604 --> 00:07:14,284 Speaker 1: He's behaving as if, oh, we don't need we don't 133 00:07:14,324 --> 00:07:16,524 Speaker 1: need Europe, we don't need China, we don't need Canada, 134 00:07:16,524 --> 00:07:19,084 Speaker 1: we don't need Mexico, like America can do this alone. 135 00:07:19,524 --> 00:07:22,604 Speaker 1: And I think that it's a misunderstanding of the payoff matrix. 136 00:07:22,924 --> 00:07:26,964 Speaker 1: I think that he actually doesn't understand that something that 137 00:07:27,884 --> 00:07:31,284 Speaker 1: all Republican presidents have understood up until this point, which 138 00:07:31,324 --> 00:07:34,964 Speaker 1: is that America First, you need the alliances in order 139 00:07:35,004 --> 00:07:38,204 Speaker 1: for you know, security and American prosperity, that you actually 140 00:07:38,204 --> 00:07:41,244 Speaker 1: can't go it alone and that you have you know 141 00:07:41,404 --> 00:07:45,044 Speaker 1: that that's a fundamental miscalculation of the game that you're playing. 142 00:07:45,644 --> 00:07:47,364 Speaker 1: And he thinks that, you know, if I, if I 143 00:07:47,404 --> 00:07:49,964 Speaker 1: try to bully everyone, then all of a sudden, you know, 144 00:07:50,004 --> 00:07:51,644 Speaker 1: I'm going to be kind of king of the world. 145 00:07:51,644 --> 00:07:53,524 Speaker 1: And that's not the way that it works. That's not 146 00:07:53,604 --> 00:07:56,324 Speaker 1: the way that people respond, and I think that he's 147 00:07:56,364 --> 00:07:59,964 Speaker 1: going to end up in the wrong quadrant, and unfortunately, 148 00:08:00,004 --> 00:08:03,364 Speaker 1: you know, America with him. While while these policies are 149 00:08:03,404 --> 00:08:06,684 Speaker 1: in place, and you'll see that in economic blowback, you'll 150 00:08:06,684 --> 00:08:09,044 Speaker 1: see that, in political blowback, you'll see that probably in 151 00:08:09,084 --> 00:08:12,644 Speaker 1: a recent session. You'll see all sorts of downstream effects 152 00:08:12,644 --> 00:08:16,764 Speaker 1: of these policies that I don't think. I certainly can't 153 00:08:16,764 --> 00:08:19,764 Speaker 1: even begin to imagine what that's going to look like. 154 00:08:20,164 --> 00:08:23,444 Speaker 1: But it does come from this misunderstanding of what truly 155 00:08:23,564 --> 00:08:26,284 Speaker 1: America first would mean. Right, What do you need in 156 00:08:26,404 --> 00:08:30,004 Speaker 1: order for in order to get into the quadrant where 157 00:08:30,044 --> 00:08:32,884 Speaker 1: America is doing well? And thinking that you can do 158 00:08:32,924 --> 00:08:34,964 Speaker 1: it by yourself by burning out bridges is wrong. 159 00:08:35,524 --> 00:08:41,484 Speaker 2: We're not asking Trump to put anyone other than America first, right, 160 00:08:41,724 --> 00:08:44,564 Speaker 2: We're saying that, like Trump's first, of all, a lot 161 00:08:44,564 --> 00:08:47,444 Speaker 2: of people is misunderstanding. Right. They assume that game theory 162 00:08:47,484 --> 00:08:49,684 Speaker 2: only applies to zero some games, And I guess it's 163 00:08:49,724 --> 00:08:53,604 Speaker 2: narrowly to the first problems in game theory concern primarily 164 00:08:53,684 --> 00:08:56,244 Speaker 2: zero some games. But most games are cooperative games or 165 00:08:56,244 --> 00:08:59,724 Speaker 2: they're mixed games, right where they're positive. Some we have 166 00:08:59,884 --> 00:09:04,604 Speaker 2: if you and I are like negotiating together a contract. 167 00:09:04,684 --> 00:09:08,364 Speaker 2: Let's say a sponsor wanted to sponsor the show, but 168 00:09:08,404 --> 00:09:12,084 Speaker 2: they want to negotiate with us like individually, and they 169 00:09:12,164 --> 00:09:15,284 Speaker 2: had like a fixed pool of money. Right, so we 170 00:09:15,404 --> 00:09:20,684 Speaker 2: both have cooperative and adversarial incentives. You know. On the 171 00:09:20,724 --> 00:09:22,484 Speaker 2: one hand, we both lose if we do you know, 172 00:09:22,564 --> 00:09:24,564 Speaker 2: let's do some ad really in the show, right, we 173 00:09:24,684 --> 00:09:28,164 Speaker 2: both lose if the deal breaks up because we can't 174 00:09:28,164 --> 00:09:29,684 Speaker 2: come to an agreement. The other hand, we might have 175 00:09:29,724 --> 00:09:31,564 Speaker 2: some trade off between what you want and what I want. 176 00:09:31,564 --> 00:09:34,604 Speaker 2: You know. Most games are kind of more like that, right, 177 00:09:34,644 --> 00:09:37,484 Speaker 2: And like the game of like international trade. If my 178 00:09:37,564 --> 00:09:42,564 Speaker 2: country manufactures autos really well and your country has really 179 00:09:42,644 --> 00:09:47,244 Speaker 2: nice coffee beans, just based on the factors of production 180 00:09:47,324 --> 00:09:50,484 Speaker 2: in our respective markets. Like you know, if I'm shitty 181 00:09:50,524 --> 00:09:52,924 Speaker 2: at making coffee, what country is bad at making coffee? 182 00:09:53,204 --> 00:09:56,244 Speaker 2: Who's bad at making coffe? I mean, let's put Germany. 183 00:09:56,324 --> 00:09:58,564 Speaker 1: There's I don't think there's a second that Germany does 184 00:09:58,604 --> 00:10:00,924 Speaker 1: not grow coffee, And I don't think that's ny. 185 00:10:01,204 --> 00:10:06,404 Speaker 2: Good at cars, bad at coffee. There you go, Yeah, 186 00:10:06,404 --> 00:10:08,164 Speaker 2: the German. You don't want the Germans to make their 187 00:10:08,204 --> 00:10:10,084 Speaker 2: own coffee of their own have you ever fucking like 188 00:10:10,884 --> 00:10:13,724 Speaker 2: tacos in Germany? It's a disaster, right, we want Germany 189 00:10:13,764 --> 00:10:18,044 Speaker 2: to import coffee and tacos and Zell pharmaceutical shit, and 190 00:10:18,124 --> 00:10:21,364 Speaker 2: like cars and watches and all the things that Germans 191 00:10:21,364 --> 00:10:25,204 Speaker 2: are you know, pillsner We want trade, right. That actually 192 00:10:25,244 --> 00:10:27,084 Speaker 2: is not zero sum, even in the prisoner's lembit. The 193 00:10:27,124 --> 00:10:29,684 Speaker 2: most famous problem in game theory is actually about what 194 00:10:29,724 --> 00:10:32,764 Speaker 2: happens when people cannot cooperate and they behave zero some 195 00:10:32,884 --> 00:10:34,164 Speaker 2: because I think they're gonna be cheated. 196 00:10:34,404 --> 00:10:37,364 Speaker 1: Yep, exactly exactly. I think that's also a misunderstanding of 197 00:10:37,364 --> 00:10:39,604 Speaker 1: the prisoner's dilemma. And by the way, game theory and 198 00:10:39,644 --> 00:10:41,844 Speaker 1: we talk about the game the Prisoner's Dilemma a lot 199 00:10:41,844 --> 00:10:44,404 Speaker 1: because that's kind of the most famous game, but game 200 00:10:44,404 --> 00:10:47,164 Speaker 1: theory is not just the prisoner's dilemma. Right, So many 201 00:10:47,204 --> 00:10:49,844 Speaker 1: people just think that, oh, game theory, prisoner's dilemma. No, 202 00:10:50,004 --> 00:10:53,164 Speaker 1: there's so many coordination games. There's so many you know, 203 00:10:53,204 --> 00:10:56,164 Speaker 1: there's so many different games at play here. And you 204 00:10:56,164 --> 00:10:59,284 Speaker 1: know what what Thomas Schulling could have got the Nobel 205 00:10:59,364 --> 00:11:03,084 Speaker 1: Prize for was describing that, you know, all of these 206 00:11:03,124 --> 00:11:07,484 Speaker 1: strategies are incredibly nuanced, and that you're like the madman's 207 00:11:07,484 --> 00:11:11,444 Speaker 1: strategy is you know what happens when you act like 208 00:11:11,524 --> 00:11:14,924 Speaker 1: a madman? Literally that you know you could You're capable 209 00:11:15,044 --> 00:11:19,644 Speaker 1: of doing anything like sure, I'll rip out my steering 210 00:11:19,684 --> 00:11:23,724 Speaker 1: wheel so that I can't actually have my car veer 211 00:11:23,764 --> 00:11:26,604 Speaker 1: off course and I have to go straight. Sure I'm 212 00:11:26,644 --> 00:11:30,044 Speaker 1: going to drop the nukes. I could do anything. You know, 213 00:11:30,164 --> 00:11:33,164 Speaker 1: it might work in a very very limited scenario, but 214 00:11:33,204 --> 00:11:36,284 Speaker 1: it can also lead to the end of the world. 215 00:11:36,364 --> 00:11:39,004 Speaker 1: And it's not a good strategy, right, Like, at the 216 00:11:39,084 --> 00:11:41,964 Speaker 1: end of the day, that's not how you're going to 217 00:11:42,004 --> 00:11:44,164 Speaker 1: accomplish your goals. That's not how you're going to put 218 00:11:44,244 --> 00:11:48,404 Speaker 1: yourself in the winning position. And so I would even argue, like, 219 00:11:48,404 --> 00:11:51,044 Speaker 1: like you said, we're not saying put anyone but America first, Like, 220 00:11:51,444 --> 00:11:55,244 Speaker 1: in order for America to prosper, you need to coordinate, 221 00:11:55,324 --> 00:11:58,724 Speaker 1: you need to cooperate, you need to forge alliances, like 222 00:11:58,764 --> 00:12:00,804 Speaker 1: that is the backbone of the global order. And that's 223 00:12:00,844 --> 00:12:03,724 Speaker 1: why America has been doing so well because it has 224 00:12:04,204 --> 00:12:07,364 Speaker 1: had this sort of kind of benign influence and people 225 00:12:07,484 --> 00:12:10,644 Speaker 1: have built up goodwill and that evaporates in a second, 226 00:12:10,924 --> 00:12:13,924 Speaker 1: and then what happens, right, what happens when you try 227 00:12:14,004 --> 00:12:16,684 Speaker 1: to be kind of the bully and the person who says, 228 00:12:16,684 --> 00:12:20,564 Speaker 1: you know, do what I say or else, and people realize, oh, 229 00:12:20,564 --> 00:12:23,604 Speaker 1: we can't trust you. Right now, you're actually forcing people 230 00:12:23,644 --> 00:12:26,324 Speaker 1: into exactly what you said with the prisoner's dilemma, where 231 00:12:26,324 --> 00:12:29,284 Speaker 1: it's in both people's interests to try to coordinate, but 232 00:12:29,324 --> 00:12:31,244 Speaker 1: you can't because you think that you're going to be cheated. 233 00:12:31,764 --> 00:12:35,324 Speaker 1: You think that you cannot Actually you're not talking with 234 00:12:35,404 --> 00:12:38,724 Speaker 1: a reliable partner. I mean, that's everything. We're also in 235 00:12:38,764 --> 00:12:41,164 Speaker 1: a repeated game, right, this is not a one shot game. 236 00:12:41,524 --> 00:12:45,284 Speaker 1: This is the global order. It's like repeated game. Reputation matters. 237 00:12:45,524 --> 00:12:48,084 Speaker 1: Reputation is crucial when you're playing a repeated game. 238 00:12:48,964 --> 00:12:52,524 Speaker 2: Yeah, and if you look at like empirical deviations from 239 00:12:52,564 --> 00:12:54,604 Speaker 2: game theory, or maybe they're kind of like rational like 240 00:12:54,684 --> 00:12:59,804 Speaker 2: on a deeper level, Right, there are two primary characteristics, 241 00:12:59,844 --> 00:13:04,324 Speaker 2: which is that at first, people are actually more cooperative 242 00:13:04,324 --> 00:13:07,844 Speaker 2: in the prisoner's dilemma than game theory might predict. Right, 243 00:13:07,924 --> 00:13:11,044 Speaker 2: they kind of assume, hey, without an explicit coordination, that 244 00:13:11,204 --> 00:13:15,004 Speaker 2: we're all shared humanity and these people are probably gonna 245 00:13:15,244 --> 00:13:19,124 Speaker 2: help a stranger out as a default maybe, right, But 246 00:13:19,164 --> 00:13:22,484 Speaker 2: then when they feel betrayed, people really seek revenge, And 247 00:13:22,524 --> 00:13:24,324 Speaker 2: you could argue it's rational over to some very long 248 00:13:24,404 --> 00:13:27,084 Speaker 2: run period because that like if you seek revenge, even 249 00:13:27,204 --> 00:13:30,244 Speaker 2: to your own destruction, then people will be much more 250 00:13:30,244 --> 00:13:33,124 Speaker 2: reluctant to fuck with you. But revenge seeking seems to 251 00:13:33,164 --> 00:13:36,964 Speaker 2: be like very ingrained. And also like I've been trying 252 00:13:36,964 --> 00:13:42,324 Speaker 2: to think about like the analogy of Canada and Mexico 253 00:13:42,444 --> 00:13:44,684 Speaker 2: and what position they're in, and like, yeah, you can 254 00:13:44,764 --> 00:13:49,164 Speaker 2: use anology of like they are are the bullies, but 255 00:13:49,244 --> 00:13:53,524 Speaker 2: it's like more like, uh, they get it both ways though, right. 256 00:13:53,804 --> 00:13:55,804 Speaker 2: They now just more like maybe you have like a boss. 257 00:13:56,324 --> 00:13:59,564 Speaker 2: There's a little bit of sexual harassing here and there, right, 258 00:14:00,884 --> 00:14:04,764 Speaker 2: and you're like, well, do I want to like blow 259 00:14:04,844 --> 00:14:07,244 Speaker 2: up my employment or cause a whole controversy by pointing 260 00:14:07,244 --> 00:14:12,004 Speaker 2: out that this is inappropriate conduct? Right? But also like 261 00:14:12,884 --> 00:14:15,884 Speaker 2: maybe they're like coworkers are like super concerned about this 262 00:14:15,964 --> 00:14:17,924 Speaker 2: kind of thing, right, And the coworkers say, if you 263 00:14:18,004 --> 00:14:19,644 Speaker 2: all sent er to the boss, we're going to disown 264 00:14:19,684 --> 00:14:22,724 Speaker 2: you and ostracize you. So like you have like they're 265 00:14:22,724 --> 00:14:25,044 Speaker 2: really kind of not in a good position either way. 266 00:14:25,044 --> 00:14:27,484 Speaker 2: It's talking about kind of tacklating with the least worst outcomes. 267 00:14:27,524 --> 00:14:29,564 Speaker 2: This is not a good thing for Canada in Mexico. 268 00:14:29,604 --> 00:14:32,444 Speaker 2: It makes all their options worse. By the way, some 269 00:14:32,484 --> 00:14:34,684 Speaker 2: of the reason why the bullying, well he is bullying 270 00:14:34,724 --> 00:14:37,484 Speaker 2: them is because like Canadian and Mexican imports are like 271 00:14:37,604 --> 00:14:41,884 Speaker 2: two percent of US GDP each, like one and a 272 00:14:41,924 --> 00:14:44,124 Speaker 2: half percent or something. We make a lot of our 273 00:14:44,124 --> 00:14:46,164 Speaker 2: own stuff, where a big country of other trading partners, 274 00:14:46,164 --> 00:14:48,004 Speaker 2: although that many of them are also under terrorists or 275 00:14:48,044 --> 00:14:51,404 Speaker 2: threat of teriffs. But you know, if we had to 276 00:14:51,484 --> 00:14:55,124 Speaker 2: go it alone, it might be enough to put economy 277 00:14:55,124 --> 00:14:57,484 Speaker 2: into a recession. But like for mexicoor Canada, if you 278 00:14:57,564 --> 00:14:59,804 Speaker 2: shut off the borders, it would send them to a 279 00:14:59,924 --> 00:15:02,844 Speaker 2: profound crisis. There might be spill over effects. But we 280 00:15:03,164 --> 00:15:08,804 Speaker 2: are the more powerful entity in this scenario. But still yeah, 281 00:15:08,844 --> 00:15:12,844 Speaker 2: even in poke, the big stack doesn't want to know. 282 00:15:12,964 --> 00:15:15,724 Speaker 2: The big scessarily antagonize the short stack, and even the 283 00:15:15,764 --> 00:15:19,284 Speaker 2: big stack would rather not get into unnecessary confrontations. 284 00:15:19,404 --> 00:15:23,044 Speaker 1: Absolutely, and if the big stack misplays that, so a 285 00:15:23,124 --> 00:15:25,244 Speaker 1: lot of people once they get a big stack, they 286 00:15:25,404 --> 00:15:27,404 Speaker 1: just they think that you're supposed to bully everyone right, 287 00:15:27,444 --> 00:15:30,444 Speaker 1: you're supposed to raise every hand, especially if you're getting 288 00:15:30,484 --> 00:15:32,404 Speaker 1: if you're on the bubble, which is the money point 289 00:15:32,404 --> 00:15:35,484 Speaker 1: of the poker tournament or the final table, you know, 290 00:15:35,564 --> 00:15:38,004 Speaker 1: they just go crazy and that's how they bust and 291 00:15:38,084 --> 00:15:41,724 Speaker 1: lose their big stack, right, because people start seeing what 292 00:15:41,804 --> 00:15:44,324 Speaker 1: they're doing, they start fighting back, And small stacks have 293 00:15:44,404 --> 00:15:46,964 Speaker 1: a ton of power, right because if you are a 294 00:15:47,004 --> 00:15:50,164 Speaker 1: big stack who's constantly opening, and I have, say ten 295 00:15:50,244 --> 00:15:54,404 Speaker 1: big blinds, I can shove on you. And if you're 296 00:15:54,604 --> 00:15:57,004 Speaker 1: you know, once that happens a few times, you either 297 00:15:57,084 --> 00:15:59,404 Speaker 1: have to fold right and there goes two big blinds 298 00:15:59,484 --> 00:16:01,684 Speaker 1: or however much you raised, or you call me and 299 00:16:02,084 --> 00:16:04,564 Speaker 1: I actually have a hand, and you lose ten big blinds, right, 300 00:16:04,644 --> 00:16:06,844 Speaker 1: and now I'm suddenly a twenty big blind stack. And 301 00:16:06,964 --> 00:16:09,084 Speaker 1: this can happen over and over. And I've actually seen 302 00:16:09,564 --> 00:16:13,524 Speaker 1: really big stacks just dwindle instead of becoming big when 303 00:16:13,924 --> 00:16:17,284 Speaker 1: people realize that, oh, hey, I can push back here, right, 304 00:16:17,404 --> 00:16:22,244 Speaker 1: I have a perfectly sized amount of chips to actually 305 00:16:22,484 --> 00:16:25,524 Speaker 1: really be in a position to fight back because I 306 00:16:25,604 --> 00:16:27,884 Speaker 1: can hurt you. And instead of a chip leader, you're 307 00:16:27,924 --> 00:16:29,884 Speaker 1: going to go to medium sized stack. 308 00:16:30,004 --> 00:16:30,084 Speaker 3: Ye. 309 00:16:30,284 --> 00:16:33,404 Speaker 1: But yeah, no's that's a very big misconception. And just 310 00:16:33,484 --> 00:16:35,724 Speaker 1: to go back to what you were saying a little bit, 311 00:16:35,964 --> 00:16:38,124 Speaker 1: you were talking about the evolutionary sec of game theory, 312 00:16:38,364 --> 00:16:41,404 Speaker 1: but there's actually also just some you know, straight up 313 00:16:41,604 --> 00:16:45,164 Speaker 1: history of game theory when computers and different strategies were 314 00:16:45,204 --> 00:16:47,004 Speaker 1: set up against each other to try to figure out, 315 00:16:47,044 --> 00:16:49,964 Speaker 1: you know, what does the best. And first the first 316 00:16:50,004 --> 00:16:52,524 Speaker 1: strategy that ended up doing well. So this goes back 317 00:16:52,564 --> 00:16:55,324 Speaker 1: to your kind of retaliatory thing is tit for tat? Right, 318 00:16:55,684 --> 00:16:58,684 Speaker 1: So you start off cooperating and if you know, if 319 00:16:58,764 --> 00:17:01,724 Speaker 1: the other person cooperates, you're in a cooperative loop, right, 320 00:17:01,844 --> 00:17:05,244 Speaker 1: So you end up in this cooperative loop. Everyone's great. 321 00:17:05,524 --> 00:17:08,124 Speaker 1: If they stop, then tit for tat, right, So if 322 00:17:08,164 --> 00:17:11,284 Speaker 1: they defect, then you start to affecting, and all of 323 00:17:11,324 --> 00:17:13,924 Speaker 1: a sudden, you know you're in a tit for tat strategy. 324 00:17:14,884 --> 00:17:17,484 Speaker 1: You're you're no longer in a cooperative roof. So that 325 00:17:17,604 --> 00:17:21,764 Speaker 1: strategy one and then another strategy beat it, and that 326 00:17:22,044 --> 00:17:25,364 Speaker 1: strategy was instead of tit for tat, tit for two tats. 327 00:17:25,644 --> 00:17:28,964 Speaker 1: So basically, you you let that harassment go on a 328 00:17:29,004 --> 00:17:31,284 Speaker 1: little bit, right, you give them a shot, So you 329 00:17:31,364 --> 00:17:35,164 Speaker 1: don't affect immediately. You actually kind of wait because what 330 00:17:35,284 --> 00:17:37,724 Speaker 1: if that defection was a mistake, right, what if there 331 00:17:37,924 --> 00:17:40,764 Speaker 1: was what if there was something else going on? What 332 00:17:40,884 --> 00:17:44,044 Speaker 1: if you know, the person got distracted. Let's give people 333 00:17:44,804 --> 00:17:47,004 Speaker 1: a better shot and tit for two tats ended up 334 00:17:47,004 --> 00:17:49,804 Speaker 1: being the winning strategy, so that that was kind of 335 00:17:49,924 --> 00:17:54,284 Speaker 1: the the thing that beat everyone, and you know, but 336 00:17:54,644 --> 00:17:57,964 Speaker 1: clearly like at this point, we're not in that anymore 337 00:17:58,004 --> 00:18:00,164 Speaker 1: because at some point you do have to retaliate and 338 00:18:01,124 --> 00:18:04,284 Speaker 1: you're out of the cooperative spiral, and those strategies, by 339 00:18:04,324 --> 00:18:06,764 Speaker 1: the way, do a lot worse, right, So those those 340 00:18:06,804 --> 00:18:11,324 Speaker 1: are not winning strategies. So it's I think that's kind. 341 00:18:11,204 --> 00:18:15,844 Speaker 2: Of where we are. And we'll be right back after 342 00:18:15,924 --> 00:18:16,564 Speaker 2: this break. 343 00:18:27,084 --> 00:18:29,844 Speaker 1: When you're talking about human nature. The other games that 344 00:18:29,924 --> 00:18:32,324 Speaker 1: we should just talk about a little bit. There's a 345 00:18:32,484 --> 00:18:35,524 Speaker 1: lot of work that's been done on things like the 346 00:18:35,604 --> 00:18:36,324 Speaker 1: Dictator game. 347 00:18:36,644 --> 00:18:36,764 Speaker 2: Right. 348 00:18:36,804 --> 00:18:39,524 Speaker 1: The Dictator games say I have ten points, Nate, and 349 00:18:40,084 --> 00:18:44,124 Speaker 1: I get to award them between you and me, and 350 00:18:44,324 --> 00:18:48,564 Speaker 1: I can take all ten for myself, right, And people 351 00:18:48,644 --> 00:18:51,404 Speaker 1: don't do that. People are actually and I can take 352 00:18:51,444 --> 00:18:53,124 Speaker 1: eight for myself and give you two, or I can 353 00:18:53,204 --> 00:18:55,524 Speaker 1: be like, oh, o get right, I'll take seven for myself. 354 00:18:55,924 --> 00:18:58,844 Speaker 1: Final I'll give you three. But people end up being 355 00:18:59,204 --> 00:19:03,604 Speaker 1: much more fair than you know, game theory would would predict, 356 00:19:04,084 --> 00:19:07,124 Speaker 1: just in a pure self interested way. People end up, 357 00:19:07,444 --> 00:19:11,564 Speaker 1: you know, giving pretty equitable divisions. It's actually very close 358 00:19:11,684 --> 00:19:14,404 Speaker 1: to like, Okay, i'll give you half and I'll keep half, 359 00:19:14,484 --> 00:19:17,524 Speaker 1: because you know we're we're not monsters, and people are 360 00:19:17,564 --> 00:19:21,404 Speaker 1: actually pretty generous in those types of situations, and especially 361 00:19:21,404 --> 00:19:25,124 Speaker 1: if this is a repeat game, reputation repeat interactions are 362 00:19:25,324 --> 00:19:27,084 Speaker 1: our first impulses, and to be like, I'm going to 363 00:19:27,124 --> 00:19:29,124 Speaker 1: take it all for myself, even if I don't know 364 00:19:29,204 --> 00:19:31,124 Speaker 1: that I'm going to be playing with you, because I 365 00:19:31,164 --> 00:19:33,324 Speaker 1: also think that it's reputation in your own head, right, 366 00:19:33,404 --> 00:19:34,964 Speaker 1: you don't want to be you don't want to think 367 00:19:35,004 --> 00:19:37,124 Speaker 1: of yourself as the type of person who's going to 368 00:19:37,164 --> 00:19:40,484 Speaker 1: take all ten points for themselves and you know, just 369 00:19:40,564 --> 00:19:43,484 Speaker 1: screw the other, the other person in this interaction. So 370 00:19:43,604 --> 00:19:46,044 Speaker 1: I think we have there are some really interesting findings 371 00:19:46,124 --> 00:19:49,684 Speaker 1: from those kinds of games where you see that, you know, 372 00:19:49,764 --> 00:19:53,444 Speaker 1: people's tendencies tend to be much nicer. But I think 373 00:19:53,484 --> 00:19:57,724 Speaker 1: Trump would take ten and give you zero and say 374 00:19:57,764 --> 00:20:00,684 Speaker 1: that that serves his long term interest, not realizing that 375 00:20:00,764 --> 00:20:03,364 Speaker 1: that's going to piss you off. Right, You're not going 376 00:20:03,404 --> 00:20:05,204 Speaker 1: to be happy when you get zero. You're not going 377 00:20:05,244 --> 00:20:06,884 Speaker 1: to be happy when you get when he's like, okay, fine, 378 00:20:06,924 --> 00:20:09,244 Speaker 1: you can have one, right, Like, you are also now 379 00:20:09,444 --> 00:20:11,164 Speaker 1: going to be happy in that scenario, and that's going 380 00:20:11,244 --> 00:20:14,484 Speaker 1: to have very real long term consequences. 381 00:20:14,884 --> 00:20:18,684 Speaker 2: Yeah, And the line between altruism and revenge, I think 382 00:20:18,804 --> 00:20:24,244 Speaker 2: is actually often kind of thin, right. Yeah, you know 383 00:20:24,364 --> 00:20:26,364 Speaker 2: you say, I am going to seek revenge to defend 384 00:20:26,604 --> 00:20:30,404 Speaker 2: my people in my way of life, right, sacrificing yourself 385 00:20:30,484 --> 00:20:34,204 Speaker 2: and maybe guying a hero or whatever. Right, Like, that's 386 00:20:34,244 --> 00:20:36,844 Speaker 2: I think actually kind of part of the same instinct. 387 00:20:36,884 --> 00:20:39,884 Speaker 2: And people don't like to be put in a place 388 00:20:39,924 --> 00:20:44,004 Speaker 2: where they have fewer options. And this ship builds up 389 00:20:44,004 --> 00:20:47,164 Speaker 2: over time too. You know, maybe one reason why two 390 00:20:47,244 --> 00:20:49,724 Speaker 2: tits for a tat this sounds like X rated. 391 00:20:52,444 --> 00:20:53,884 Speaker 3: I'm not the one who named it. I'm not the 392 00:20:53,924 --> 00:20:59,844 Speaker 3: one who named these strategies. You don't want triple tits. 393 00:20:59,884 --> 00:21:03,884 Speaker 3: I don't know what's going on there, but like, but 394 00:21:04,044 --> 00:21:08,444 Speaker 3: like it's much harder to rebuild trust than to undo. 395 00:21:09,444 --> 00:21:11,804 Speaker 1: Yes, right, Yes, that's a fundamental point. 396 00:21:12,924 --> 00:21:14,364 Speaker 2: You know, if you're in a close relationship and you 397 00:21:14,444 --> 00:21:19,164 Speaker 2: catch a partner cheating on you, then takes a lot 398 00:21:19,204 --> 00:21:21,444 Speaker 2: of convincing that that won't happen again. Right, You might 399 00:21:21,484 --> 00:21:24,204 Speaker 2: overlook the first one for whatever reasons, but like the 400 00:21:24,284 --> 00:21:27,884 Speaker 2: second time, there's a fucking hope to like rebuild trust 401 00:21:28,244 --> 00:21:35,004 Speaker 2: unless there's many years of you know, cooperative behavior potentially. So, like, 402 00:21:35,084 --> 00:21:37,244 Speaker 2: I think Canada Mexico have like not been a rational say, 403 00:21:37,284 --> 00:21:43,724 Speaker 2: and Trump is like erratic. Some might say he's a madman, right, 404 00:21:43,804 --> 00:21:45,844 Speaker 2: That has a sching different connotation in game theory. It 405 00:21:45,924 --> 00:21:48,684 Speaker 2: can mean that, like because you're a predictable that can 406 00:21:48,764 --> 00:21:52,044 Speaker 2: serve as an effective deterrent sometimes, right, But I think 407 00:21:52,204 --> 00:21:54,844 Speaker 2: not in like this more kind of pedestrian territory of like, 408 00:21:55,004 --> 00:22:00,804 Speaker 2: because Trump is not threatening mutually assured destruction. Right if 409 00:22:00,844 --> 00:22:04,444 Speaker 2: we completely cut off permanently imports of Canada and Mexico, 410 00:22:04,604 --> 00:22:06,884 Speaker 2: that would hurt the economy a lot in the short run, 411 00:22:07,004 --> 00:22:11,204 Speaker 2: but like America could survive that and eventually replaced the production, 412 00:22:11,284 --> 00:22:16,484 Speaker 2: et cetera. So it's not like mutually assured destruction. But like, 413 00:22:16,844 --> 00:22:19,884 Speaker 2: but he is erratic, maybe in the stupid now Jays before, 414 00:22:20,124 --> 00:22:23,284 Speaker 2: like the the boss was having a bad day or 415 00:22:23,444 --> 00:22:27,764 Speaker 2: was ambiguous, right, I mean Trump and JD. Vans, et 416 00:22:27,804 --> 00:22:32,204 Speaker 2: cetera sometimes try to maintain some degree of ambiguity. It's 417 00:22:32,244 --> 00:22:34,004 Speaker 2: a I think one of the things they're better about, 418 00:22:34,284 --> 00:22:38,684 Speaker 2: like say something outrageous but like not quite you know, 419 00:22:38,764 --> 00:22:45,004 Speaker 2: but it said jokingly, right, And and the Libs always 420 00:22:45,084 --> 00:22:47,524 Speaker 2: take it super literally when maybe they shouldn't, And so 421 00:22:47,684 --> 00:22:49,484 Speaker 2: like they play with the ambiguity in the way. It's like, 422 00:22:50,124 --> 00:22:55,524 Speaker 2: I think, a bit effective sometimes. But now you know, 423 00:22:55,804 --> 00:22:57,604 Speaker 2: can of Mexico, Like, I mean, what are they supposed 424 00:22:57,604 --> 00:23:00,724 Speaker 2: to do? Right? Like you can't Like I just thought 425 00:23:00,764 --> 00:23:03,044 Speaker 2: this was like there wasn't really even like a pretext 426 00:23:03,684 --> 00:23:05,244 Speaker 2: or why we're re establishing the terrorist I think the 427 00:23:05,284 --> 00:23:06,484 Speaker 2: market and I wrote this at the time, so this 428 00:23:06,604 --> 00:23:08,844 Speaker 2: is not me in hindsight bias, right, I think the 429 00:23:08,884 --> 00:23:11,124 Speaker 2: market at the time was naive to assume that like 430 00:23:11,204 --> 00:23:14,484 Speaker 2: postponing these things for a month was a good sign, right, 431 00:23:14,564 --> 00:23:16,284 Speaker 2: and that and that you know, the Trump of like 432 00:23:16,724 --> 00:23:22,964 Speaker 2: the second term, seems much more determined to blow the 433 00:23:23,044 --> 00:23:26,764 Speaker 2: world order up. Right. Yeah, he's not bluffing as much. 434 00:23:26,804 --> 00:23:33,684 Speaker 2: He's being advised by people who are maybe more deranged 435 00:23:33,764 --> 00:23:38,444 Speaker 2: in some ways, I think, right, No, I mean I 436 00:23:38,964 --> 00:23:39,364 Speaker 2: think it is. 437 00:23:39,524 --> 00:23:41,684 Speaker 1: It is kind of exactly what you're saying, blowing up 438 00:23:41,724 --> 00:23:44,724 Speaker 1: the world order from the inside and you know, from 439 00:23:44,764 --> 00:23:47,244 Speaker 1: the outside, because he's doing it both within the country 440 00:23:47,364 --> 00:23:51,644 Speaker 1: and outside of its borders. Canada, Mexico not being irrational, 441 00:23:52,204 --> 00:23:56,364 Speaker 1: China not being irrational at all, Ukraine not being irrational, 442 00:23:56,844 --> 00:24:00,244 Speaker 1: because you know, the only way to kind of stop 443 00:24:00,284 --> 00:24:02,524 Speaker 1: bullies is to is to grow a spine and to 444 00:24:02,644 --> 00:24:05,204 Speaker 1: actually try to stand up and try to get them 445 00:24:05,324 --> 00:24:08,644 Speaker 1: to honor their guarantees and to be like, hey, you know. 446 00:24:09,924 --> 00:24:13,444 Speaker 2: I Zolensky meeting was interesting. 447 00:24:15,604 --> 00:24:17,484 Speaker 1: I think it was probably one of the lowest points 448 00:24:17,524 --> 00:24:21,324 Speaker 1: in American foreign policy and history. And it was tough televis. 449 00:24:21,484 --> 00:24:26,884 Speaker 2: It was a spect I mean, Zelensky did have this, 450 00:24:27,284 --> 00:24:29,204 Speaker 2: you know, I put it like this, right, there was 451 00:24:29,284 --> 00:24:33,164 Speaker 2: some element of pride. I'm not sure i'd say it's revenged, 452 00:24:33,324 --> 00:24:35,124 Speaker 2: but he thinks that, like so first of all, he 453 00:24:35,164 --> 00:24:38,644 Speaker 2: thinks that like deals involving Russia without security guarantees are 454 00:24:38,724 --> 00:24:41,604 Speaker 2: and he was saying, like, look, Russia has violated these 455 00:24:41,604 --> 00:24:43,684 Speaker 2: agreements so many times. They're not trustworthy at all. And 456 00:24:43,724 --> 00:24:47,444 Speaker 2: I'm kind of like, aren't sitting here smiling and nodding 457 00:24:47,644 --> 00:24:51,364 Speaker 2: to sign this agreement that I want? Right, I'm listening 458 00:24:51,364 --> 00:24:53,404 Speaker 2: to all this naive bullshit about Russia and Trump and 459 00:24:53,524 --> 00:24:56,364 Speaker 2: JD Vance don't seem to don't seem to understand her. 460 00:24:56,364 --> 00:24:58,044 Speaker 2: If they do understand it, I mean, Jady Vance is 461 00:24:58,084 --> 00:25:01,724 Speaker 2: a they're all different, interrupt you. 462 00:25:01,724 --> 00:25:04,164 Speaker 1: For a second. Like Trump, I get okay, like he's 463 00:25:04,244 --> 00:25:06,644 Speaker 1: just being an idiot, But like JD Vance went to 464 00:25:06,804 --> 00:25:09,924 Speaker 1: ye law, like doesn't he know history? Like I thought 465 00:25:09,964 --> 00:25:12,804 Speaker 1: that he would be a little bit smarter in terms 466 00:25:12,844 --> 00:25:17,164 Speaker 1: of understanding that sucking up to Putin ain't it right? 467 00:25:17,324 --> 00:25:21,804 Speaker 1: I just I thought that, naively, perhaps that jd Bands 468 00:25:21,804 --> 00:25:24,684 Speaker 1: would have a better grasp of the history and the 469 00:25:24,764 --> 00:25:27,644 Speaker 1: game theoretical dynamics here and realize that to get where 470 00:25:27,644 --> 00:25:30,124 Speaker 1: he wants to go, appeasing Putin is not I mean 471 00:25:30,204 --> 00:25:33,124 Speaker 1: maybe in the immediate immediate term, so that he stays 472 00:25:33,564 --> 00:25:38,524 Speaker 1: as VP. But I just, like, you know, seeing this 473 00:25:38,684 --> 00:25:40,644 Speaker 1: makes him seem a lot dumber than I thought he was. 474 00:25:41,884 --> 00:25:44,044 Speaker 2: One thing Trump is very consistent about is that if 475 00:25:44,044 --> 00:25:47,084 Speaker 2: you get in his bad side, unless there's some very 476 00:25:47,284 --> 00:25:51,604 Speaker 2: naked pigic incentive to recooperate, right, Like you know, he 477 00:25:51,644 --> 00:25:53,204 Speaker 2: doesn't give people a lot of room for discriminate. It 478 00:25:53,244 --> 00:25:56,724 Speaker 2: was fasting, By the way, I would recommend watching the 479 00:25:56,764 --> 00:26:00,084 Speaker 2: whole Trump Zelensky meeting and partet is of like the 480 00:26:00,204 --> 00:26:06,204 Speaker 2: body language, and you see kind of like Zelensky is 481 00:26:06,764 --> 00:26:09,924 Speaker 2: increasingly gently but less and less gently try suggests that 482 00:26:10,084 --> 00:26:13,364 Speaker 2: like Russia is not a reliable partner. And then you 483 00:26:13,444 --> 00:26:15,484 Speaker 2: see Trump kind of who starts out like hit anyone 484 00:26:15,484 --> 00:26:17,764 Speaker 2: on the back literally, right, do you see Trump's body 485 00:26:17,844 --> 00:26:22,324 Speaker 2: language kind of change and he's like, I'm gonna give 486 00:26:22,364 --> 00:26:25,284 Speaker 2: you your one time, right, tit? But if it's a 487 00:26:25,524 --> 00:26:27,764 Speaker 2: double a tit tit right. But it's an example of 488 00:26:27,844 --> 00:26:29,444 Speaker 2: how like like I'm not sure if he was acting 489 00:26:29,644 --> 00:26:33,684 Speaker 2: narrowly rationally, right, you probably just have to suck it up. 490 00:26:34,244 --> 00:26:38,044 Speaker 2: If you're being narrowly rational and suck it up, and 491 00:26:38,084 --> 00:26:40,284 Speaker 2: then later on you can yell at Trump on the 492 00:26:40,364 --> 00:26:44,524 Speaker 2: phone or probably go through an intermediary or have Makarrubio 493 00:26:44,644 --> 00:26:48,044 Speaker 2: and the Ukrainian counterpart duke it out or whatever it else. Right, 494 00:26:48,084 --> 00:26:52,204 Speaker 2: But like you know, I think he had like some 495 00:26:52,724 --> 00:26:57,484 Speaker 2: trouble sucking up his pride and cowtowing to this bully 496 00:26:57,524 --> 00:27:01,244 Speaker 2: who was who is you know, naive about like Russia's 497 00:27:01,284 --> 00:27:04,444 Speaker 2: willingness to go along with these with these guarantees, right, 498 00:27:05,804 --> 00:27:07,484 Speaker 2: And like I'd be like that, man, this is why, 499 00:27:07,684 --> 00:27:09,564 Speaker 2: like this is I'd be a fair trouble fucking I'd 500 00:27:09,604 --> 00:27:11,284 Speaker 2: be like, fuck, you know what, I've listened to this 501 00:27:11,324 --> 00:27:14,964 Speaker 2: bullshit Donald for half an hour now, and like, give 502 00:27:15,044 --> 00:27:16,844 Speaker 2: me a fucking break, right, I'd do it in front 503 00:27:16,844 --> 00:27:18,524 Speaker 2: of all the cameras, and like I would you know, 504 00:27:18,804 --> 00:27:21,004 Speaker 2: my coundery probably get like nuked as a result. But like, 505 00:27:21,204 --> 00:27:23,924 Speaker 2: but you can, you can respect Zelensky as a human 506 00:27:24,644 --> 00:27:27,004 Speaker 2: being and also understands in a terrible position, and he's 507 00:27:27,044 --> 00:27:29,844 Speaker 2: probably right on the merits, right, But like but like, 508 00:27:29,924 --> 00:27:30,964 Speaker 2: at the same time, like. 509 00:27:33,244 --> 00:27:37,924 Speaker 1: I actually no, I disagree that he should have just 510 00:27:38,044 --> 00:27:42,404 Speaker 1: sucked it up, because that's that's also that he's he's 511 00:27:42,444 --> 00:27:44,564 Speaker 1: between a rock and a hard place, right he he 512 00:27:44,764 --> 00:27:49,004 Speaker 1: needs he needs it, he needs help, right, But sucking 513 00:27:49,044 --> 00:27:51,644 Speaker 1: it up with no security guarantees from the United States 514 00:27:52,044 --> 00:27:55,644 Speaker 1: would have been I think also an absolute disaster and 515 00:27:55,724 --> 00:27:58,404 Speaker 1: a disaster for kind of the world order. So I 516 00:27:58,524 --> 00:28:01,084 Speaker 1: think in a way what he did was more altruistic 517 00:28:02,084 --> 00:28:05,764 Speaker 1: because he's kind of he's still trying to kind of 518 00:28:05,884 --> 00:28:10,244 Speaker 1: stand up like put himself because Ukraine has been kind 519 00:28:10,284 --> 00:28:12,924 Speaker 1: of the one thing that has been stopping World War 520 00:28:13,004 --> 00:28:15,604 Speaker 1: three and Putin's takeover of Europe. 521 00:28:15,844 --> 00:28:19,004 Speaker 2: It's hard for people when they experience a worse thaning 522 00:28:19,084 --> 00:28:22,244 Speaker 2: of their situation, their expected value to prefer right, It's 523 00:28:22,244 --> 00:28:25,444 Speaker 2: hard people to distinguish between relatively more bad and relatively 524 00:28:25,524 --> 00:28:27,044 Speaker 2: less bad options. 525 00:28:27,164 --> 00:28:27,284 Speaker 3: Right. 526 00:28:29,044 --> 00:28:30,764 Speaker 2: You know, you sometimes see like a poker player kind 527 00:28:30,764 --> 00:28:35,964 Speaker 2: of like put money in at the end where they 528 00:28:36,044 --> 00:28:39,644 Speaker 2: don't think their opponent is bluffing. They're really disappointed by 529 00:28:39,924 --> 00:28:41,724 Speaker 2: how the hands played out, right, and they kind of 530 00:28:41,764 --> 00:28:44,924 Speaker 2: can't quite admit that their situation that they're worse than that, 531 00:28:44,924 --> 00:28:47,964 Speaker 2: and they almost punish themselves and saying, Okay, I'll call 532 00:28:48,044 --> 00:28:51,564 Speaker 2: against someone that if they kind of detach themselves from 533 00:28:51,604 --> 00:28:53,764 Speaker 2: the situation, would say, yeah, that guy's never bluffing or 534 00:28:53,804 --> 00:28:56,764 Speaker 2: bluffing half as often as he would need to be 535 00:28:56,924 --> 00:28:59,684 Speaker 2: to make that call correct. Right, Like that situation is 536 00:29:00,844 --> 00:29:04,084 Speaker 2: is tough, Right, I mean, you're experiencing a loss of esteem. 537 00:29:04,244 --> 00:29:06,364 Speaker 2: People are yelling at you and your country for things 538 00:29:06,404 --> 00:29:08,684 Speaker 2: going badly. There are worse two I mean, I think 539 00:29:08,684 --> 00:29:13,324 Speaker 2: people sometimes to estimate when you have an increase in 540 00:29:13,364 --> 00:29:15,884 Speaker 2: your welfare, your EV and you have multiple good options. 541 00:29:15,884 --> 00:29:18,364 Speaker 2: People I think are also sometimes like not opportunistic enough 542 00:29:18,364 --> 00:29:22,164 Speaker 2: about saying, Okay, really good option A is actually a 543 00:29:22,204 --> 00:29:24,364 Speaker 2: lot better than merely pretty good option B, and you 544 00:29:24,404 --> 00:29:26,644 Speaker 2: don't have a situation happened all that often, So like 545 00:29:27,284 --> 00:29:29,484 Speaker 2: take time and think about that and maximize when you can, 546 00:29:29,724 --> 00:29:31,524 Speaker 2: you know. But like, apart from you know, people are 547 00:29:31,524 --> 00:29:34,444 Speaker 2: going to comparing good versus bad. Degrees of goodness versus 548 00:29:34,484 --> 00:29:36,644 Speaker 2: degrees of badness are harder for people to deal with. 549 00:29:37,324 --> 00:29:41,284 Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure, for sure, And this is but I 550 00:29:41,364 --> 00:29:44,484 Speaker 1: think that we're in a I think we can both 551 00:29:44,484 --> 00:29:46,524 Speaker 1: agree that we're in a very bad situation right now 552 00:29:46,724 --> 00:29:49,364 Speaker 1: and the game theory is not looking good and we're 553 00:29:49,444 --> 00:29:52,644 Speaker 1: not in a very good cooperative spiral when it comes 554 00:29:52,684 --> 00:29:56,444 Speaker 1: to anything, you know, economy, foreign policy. So let's let's 555 00:29:56,444 --> 00:30:00,764 Speaker 1: see what happens. And yeah, let's see where we are 556 00:30:00,924 --> 00:30:04,724 Speaker 1: next week on that note, day too, want to take 557 00:30:04,764 --> 00:30:08,044 Speaker 1: a little break and talk about the fire festival rebirth. 558 00:30:08,484 --> 00:30:25,084 Speaker 2: Let's do it. Maria, So Nate, I was, you know. 559 00:30:25,844 --> 00:30:27,764 Speaker 1: I should not be shocked. I wrote a book about 560 00:30:27,804 --> 00:30:31,324 Speaker 1: con artists and about how they operate and about you know, 561 00:30:31,364 --> 00:30:33,404 Speaker 1: how the whole world works. But I was actually a 562 00:30:33,484 --> 00:30:37,684 Speaker 1: little bit shocked to find out last week that Billy McFarland, 563 00:30:37,764 --> 00:30:42,924 Speaker 1: who went to prison after he had tried to organize 564 00:30:43,004 --> 00:30:46,324 Speaker 1: this music festival, the Fire Festival, sparked not one but 565 00:30:46,444 --> 00:30:52,044 Speaker 1: two documentaries about it where he promised this luxurious getaway, 566 00:30:52,084 --> 00:30:55,804 Speaker 1: you know, luxurious island, all this amazing stuff, and you 567 00:30:55,884 --> 00:30:59,284 Speaker 1: know it was a complete fraud and fiasco. No music, 568 00:30:59,444 --> 00:31:03,564 Speaker 1: no food, no transportation, no housing, no no nothing. Anyway, 569 00:31:03,604 --> 00:31:07,244 Speaker 1: dude went to jail partly for wire fraud. While he 570 00:31:07,404 --> 00:31:10,284 Speaker 1: was in jail, by the way, he ended up starting 571 00:31:10,684 --> 00:31:14,204 Speaker 1: a ticket selling business, which ended up getting him an 572 00:31:14,204 --> 00:31:18,204 Speaker 1: even longer sentence because that was also fraudulent. So he 573 00:31:18,324 --> 00:31:20,404 Speaker 1: just doesn't give up. He's now out. I think he 574 00:31:20,484 --> 00:31:23,564 Speaker 1: served a little bit less than four years, and he 575 00:31:23,684 --> 00:31:27,244 Speaker 1: has announced fire festival too. 576 00:31:28,244 --> 00:31:32,484 Speaker 2: Are you going this time a risky biz pop up there? 577 00:31:33,924 --> 00:31:38,364 Speaker 1: Exactly? It's going to be at play a fire on 578 00:31:39,164 --> 00:31:44,084 Speaker 1: a Mexican island called Isla Muheres, the Island of Women. 579 00:31:44,564 --> 00:31:46,524 Speaker 2: I mean, it's not surprising why I think you'd say that, 580 00:31:46,684 --> 00:31:50,124 Speaker 2: Like Billy for an in the podcast. I'm just kidding. 581 00:31:50,324 --> 00:31:52,204 Speaker 2: It's not surprising that like the current artists would want 582 00:31:52,324 --> 00:31:55,844 Speaker 2: to like try desperately to like run back the con right, 583 00:31:56,044 --> 00:31:57,524 Speaker 2: I mean that seems like typical. 584 00:31:57,924 --> 00:32:01,724 Speaker 1: Absolutely, absolutely, And so he owes a lot of money, right, 585 00:32:01,844 --> 00:32:06,924 Speaker 1: he owes millions of dollars for restitution for kind of 586 00:32:06,964 --> 00:32:11,604 Speaker 1: the money lost in the Fire festival. And he is now, so, Nate, 587 00:32:11,724 --> 00:32:14,084 Speaker 1: do you want to guess what the ticket prices? So 588 00:32:14,164 --> 00:32:16,924 Speaker 1: there are two thousand tickets available to Fire Festival too, 589 00:32:17,644 --> 00:32:21,004 Speaker 1: and there's a range of ticket prices. We're at a 590 00:32:21,244 --> 00:32:25,324 Speaker 1: floor of one four hundred dollars and a ceiling of 591 00:32:25,444 --> 00:32:30,164 Speaker 1: one point one million dollars. And he is promising the 592 00:32:30,284 --> 00:32:33,164 Speaker 1: exact same shit that he promised last time, that you're 593 00:32:33,204 --> 00:32:37,444 Speaker 1: going to have an artist's palace, all this amazing stuff, 594 00:32:37,564 --> 00:32:40,404 Speaker 1: VIP experiences. None of this has been built. And by 595 00:32:40,404 --> 00:32:43,204 Speaker 1: the way, Mexican officials have said, hey, no one has 596 00:32:43,244 --> 00:32:46,204 Speaker 1: applied for any permits, like, we don't know about this. 597 00:32:46,724 --> 00:32:49,724 Speaker 1: I think we have zero applications for permits to do 598 00:32:49,844 --> 00:32:54,244 Speaker 1: this on isladness. And apparently even if you go to 599 00:32:54,324 --> 00:32:57,084 Speaker 1: the GPS like little pin that he put on the website, 600 00:32:57,244 --> 00:32:59,684 Speaker 1: it drops you into the ocean, which probably is much 601 00:32:59,804 --> 00:33:02,764 Speaker 1: more par for the course than being dropped on the 602 00:33:02,884 --> 00:33:06,884 Speaker 1: island itself. So that's actually probably the most truth telling 603 00:33:07,004 --> 00:33:09,204 Speaker 1: part of all of this. It tells you exactly where 604 00:33:09,204 --> 00:33:12,844 Speaker 1: you're going to go, and I will not be surprised. 605 00:33:12,884 --> 00:33:16,604 Speaker 1: So normally I'm firmly, firmly on the side of victims. 606 00:33:16,844 --> 00:33:18,644 Speaker 1: I was firmly on the side of the victims of 607 00:33:18,724 --> 00:33:23,284 Speaker 1: the fire fraud because you know, they didn't know it 608 00:33:23,404 --> 00:33:25,404 Speaker 1: was going to be a fraud. At that point. It seemed, 609 00:33:25,404 --> 00:33:27,284 Speaker 1: you know, there was John Rule, all of these people 610 00:33:27,444 --> 00:33:30,604 Speaker 1: endorsing it, you know, who the hell knew who. Billy 611 00:33:30,684 --> 00:33:33,924 Speaker 1: McFarland was like, if they want to spend money to 612 00:33:34,244 --> 00:33:38,964 Speaker 1: go to this amazing experience on the island in the Bahamas, amazing, right, Like, 613 00:33:39,244 --> 00:33:42,564 Speaker 1: that's good for them, Like these are not don't judge 614 00:33:42,604 --> 00:33:46,204 Speaker 1: people because they want to go to a fancy music concert, 615 00:33:46,364 --> 00:33:49,564 Speaker 1: Like that's their prerogative. And some of these people had 616 00:33:49,604 --> 00:33:51,644 Speaker 1: no money, right, Like, they saved up for a year 617 00:33:51,764 --> 00:33:53,644 Speaker 1: to be able to go to be able to go there, 618 00:33:53,804 --> 00:33:57,964 Speaker 1: So I was firmly on their side. However, if you 619 00:33:58,124 --> 00:34:02,124 Speaker 1: buy tickets to Fire Festival too, I'm sorry, this is 620 00:34:02,284 --> 00:34:04,524 Speaker 1: I'm going to go from I'm no longer going to 621 00:34:04,564 --> 00:34:07,004 Speaker 1: be a victim advocate here. This is one of those 622 00:34:07,044 --> 00:34:10,364 Speaker 1: you know, fool me once situations and fool me twice, 623 00:34:10,484 --> 00:34:13,724 Speaker 1: like are you fucking kidding me? Like what are you thinking? 624 00:34:14,644 --> 00:34:16,964 Speaker 1: Like con artists, I think I've told you this before. 625 00:34:17,684 --> 00:34:20,484 Speaker 1: They have suckers lists, so and you sell these for 626 00:34:20,564 --> 00:34:23,284 Speaker 1: a lot of money, which is people who've fallen for 627 00:34:23,484 --> 00:34:26,004 Speaker 1: phone scams, email scams, et cetera in the past, and 628 00:34:26,164 --> 00:34:28,684 Speaker 1: these this is a very very valuable list because they're 629 00:34:28,764 --> 00:34:30,764 Speaker 1: much more likely to fall forward again if they've already 630 00:34:30,804 --> 00:34:33,284 Speaker 1: fallen for it once. So the Fire Festival should have 631 00:34:33,284 --> 00:34:36,644 Speaker 1: a sucker's list if anyone actually ends up doing this again, 632 00:34:36,804 --> 00:34:40,044 Speaker 1: because if someone believes that, oh well, the first time, 633 00:34:40,124 --> 00:34:42,604 Speaker 1: you know, he messed up, But this time it's really 634 00:34:42,684 --> 00:34:44,964 Speaker 1: going to be great. Man, I've got I've got so 635 00:34:45,084 --> 00:34:47,084 Speaker 1: many bridges to sell you. It's not even funny. 636 00:34:47,564 --> 00:34:50,684 Speaker 2: We want it be like all like New York magazine 637 00:34:50,724 --> 00:34:54,004 Speaker 2: writers writing ironically detached profile pieces of this, but there's 638 00:34:54,004 --> 00:34:57,164 Speaker 2: an audience for it. If I got a ticket for free, 639 00:34:57,444 --> 00:35:00,684 Speaker 2: I would go. I would absolutely because there's a performance 640 00:35:00,844 --> 00:35:04,404 Speaker 2: art element to this. Oh absolutely, I would if someone 641 00:35:04,524 --> 00:35:07,084 Speaker 2: wants to sponsor me to go to the Fire Festival 642 00:35:07,124 --> 00:35:09,124 Speaker 2: and write about it, maybe I'm not valuing my time 643 00:35:09,204 --> 00:35:10,644 Speaker 2: and I'll do it. 644 00:35:10,764 --> 00:35:13,044 Speaker 1: I'll do it as you know. It's part of it's 645 00:35:13,084 --> 00:35:16,484 Speaker 1: part of my uh, it's part of my background. 646 00:35:16,524 --> 00:35:16,604 Speaker 3: You know. 647 00:35:16,644 --> 00:35:17,844 Speaker 1: I wrote a book on con artists. 648 00:35:18,124 --> 00:35:18,324 Speaker 2: Book. 649 00:35:18,404 --> 00:35:21,244 Speaker 1: My next book is about cheating. I will happily go 650 00:35:21,364 --> 00:35:23,244 Speaker 1: and cover the Fire Festival. So if anyone wants to 651 00:35:23,284 --> 00:35:26,284 Speaker 1: sponsor me, please, I will not think you're a sucker 652 00:35:26,404 --> 00:35:28,444 Speaker 1: for buying that ticket. But something tells me that I 653 00:35:28,564 --> 00:35:31,204 Speaker 1: might not even get to go right, Like is this 654 00:35:31,404 --> 00:35:34,644 Speaker 1: even going to happen right? Like there have been zero permits, 655 00:35:34,964 --> 00:35:38,124 Speaker 1: Like he clearly wants to raise money so that you know, 656 00:35:38,204 --> 00:35:42,004 Speaker 1: he can have money, and he just can't help himself. 657 00:35:42,244 --> 00:35:44,524 Speaker 1: What I know about con artists is that they do 658 00:35:44,724 --> 00:35:48,484 Speaker 1: not go straight right like, they do not magically reform, 659 00:35:48,684 --> 00:35:51,604 Speaker 1: especially like the ones on the level of Billy McFarland 660 00:35:51,684 --> 00:35:54,524 Speaker 1: who have been doing this. There are people, you know 661 00:35:54,604 --> 00:35:58,004 Speaker 1: who talked about his childhood. I was one of the 662 00:35:58,084 --> 00:36:01,844 Speaker 1: talking heads on the documentaries, so so I kind of 663 00:36:02,044 --> 00:36:05,004 Speaker 1: went into what went in deep with that this is 664 00:36:05,044 --> 00:36:07,444 Speaker 1: a guy who's been doing this his whole life and 665 00:36:07,724 --> 00:36:11,324 Speaker 1: has been misrepresenting himself his whole life. He's not looking 666 00:36:11,404 --> 00:36:15,604 Speaker 1: to become a successful entrepreneur, businessman, event planner. Like he's 667 00:36:15,684 --> 00:36:17,924 Speaker 1: going to keep taking his money, and I just want 668 00:36:18,004 --> 00:36:20,604 Speaker 1: to know, like who is willing to back him? 669 00:36:21,004 --> 00:36:24,004 Speaker 2: Right, Okay, they play advocate Sometimes people like psyche themselves 670 00:36:24,044 --> 00:36:25,844 Speaker 2: out of that, like they do. Okay, it would be 671 00:36:25,884 --> 00:36:30,804 Speaker 2: such an obvious con that like that exactly. Yeah, poper 672 00:36:30,884 --> 00:36:34,044 Speaker 2: is sometimes true and sometimes like sometimes being caught bluffing 673 00:36:34,484 --> 00:36:37,804 Speaker 2: and poker can deter people from bluffing again, right, I 674 00:36:37,884 --> 00:36:40,124 Speaker 2: can't think of most other real world snaries, but that's it. 675 00:36:40,244 --> 00:36:43,204 Speaker 1: But that's very different because in poker, like bluffing is 676 00:36:43,284 --> 00:36:46,044 Speaker 1: part of the game, right, and some people, so it's 677 00:36:46,164 --> 00:36:48,244 Speaker 1: it's like you're still playing by the rules and when 678 00:36:48,284 --> 00:36:51,444 Speaker 1: you call someone you're not, so it's it's it's a 679 00:36:51,484 --> 00:36:55,564 Speaker 1: little bit different. So I think that think about it. Actually, 680 00:36:55,564 --> 00:36:58,204 Speaker 1: I think this is more like angle shooting and poker 681 00:36:58,244 --> 00:37:01,124 Speaker 1: instead of bluffing, right, which if you're not a poker player, 682 00:37:01,564 --> 00:37:05,084 Speaker 1: angle shooting is basically going right up until the edge, 683 00:37:05,284 --> 00:37:07,724 Speaker 1: bending the rules, doing things that are like frankly kind 684 00:37:07,764 --> 00:37:12,884 Speaker 1: of sleazy and scummy. But you're not technically cheating, and 685 00:37:13,204 --> 00:37:15,924 Speaker 1: you're doing it to try to get information, to try 686 00:37:16,004 --> 00:37:18,364 Speaker 1: to get a reaction out of your opponent, to try 687 00:37:18,404 --> 00:37:22,604 Speaker 1: to gain an edge in a scummy way. You're going 688 00:37:22,844 --> 00:37:25,404 Speaker 1: right up until that point where you can actually be 689 00:37:25,484 --> 00:37:29,604 Speaker 1: disqualified for it. People who are known angle shooters, they 690 00:37:29,644 --> 00:37:32,204 Speaker 1: are known angle shooters. If you call them out on it, 691 00:37:32,484 --> 00:37:34,604 Speaker 1: that is not going to make them less likely to 692 00:37:34,644 --> 00:37:36,324 Speaker 1: angle shoot next time. They are going to try it 693 00:37:36,364 --> 00:37:40,004 Speaker 1: again and see like, okay, well you know, nothing really happened, 694 00:37:40,044 --> 00:37:42,244 Speaker 1: like let me see if I can do this again, right, like, 695 00:37:42,364 --> 00:37:44,204 Speaker 1: let me see if I can angle shoot again. And 696 00:37:44,764 --> 00:37:47,444 Speaker 1: they keep doing it, even if they have known reputations 697 00:37:47,524 --> 00:37:50,524 Speaker 1: for doing it. I think that that's the better analogy here, 698 00:37:51,044 --> 00:37:53,804 Speaker 1: that we're dealing with someone who just doesn't give a 699 00:37:53,884 --> 00:37:57,084 Speaker 1: fuck and and gets off on it and wants to 700 00:37:57,644 --> 00:38:03,124 Speaker 1: be able to have this sort of image reputation because 701 00:38:03,124 --> 00:38:05,244 Speaker 1: he's not doing this for the money, right like he 702 00:38:05,404 --> 00:38:07,924 Speaker 1: owes a lot of money. He was already in jail, 703 00:38:08,844 --> 00:38:12,124 Speaker 1: And I think that I think the motivations here are 704 00:38:12,284 --> 00:38:16,804 Speaker 1: are quite different, and and he's will he will keep 705 00:38:17,204 --> 00:38:20,244 Speaker 1: trying it again. But as you say, you know, people 706 00:38:20,404 --> 00:38:23,164 Speaker 1: do have this mentality of oh, well, it can't happen again, 707 00:38:23,724 --> 00:38:27,204 Speaker 1: so this time I'm definitely okay, and you fall forward again, 708 00:38:27,724 --> 00:38:31,684 Speaker 1: and yeah, our minds and our powers of rationalization are 709 00:38:31,804 --> 00:38:35,204 Speaker 1: truly epic. I want to revisit this, Nate in you know, 710 00:38:35,284 --> 00:38:37,564 Speaker 1: in a few months to see if Fire Festival two 711 00:38:37,644 --> 00:38:41,404 Speaker 1: is moving forward. And I will be very, very curious 712 00:38:41,484 --> 00:38:43,364 Speaker 1: to know if we're going to have a second documentary 713 00:38:43,444 --> 00:38:48,244 Speaker 1: made about fire to and the great fraud and how 714 00:38:48,324 --> 00:38:50,884 Speaker 1: in the world did someone pay one point one million 715 00:38:51,364 --> 00:38:58,244 Speaker 1: for the IP experience. On that note, dear listeners, Nate 716 00:38:58,284 --> 00:38:59,644 Speaker 1: and I are going to go and try to find 717 00:38:59,644 --> 00:39:03,804 Speaker 1: sponsorships to go and fly out to Fire Festival too, 718 00:39:04,164 --> 00:39:06,484 Speaker 1: so that we can take a Risky Business podcast from 719 00:39:06,884 --> 00:39:26,564 Speaker 1: the island of Les Mohetas. Let us know what you 720 00:39:26,644 --> 00:39:29,284 Speaker 1: think of the show. Reach out to us at Risky 721 00:39:29,364 --> 00:39:32,844 Speaker 1: Business at Pushkin dot fm. And by the way, if 722 00:39:32,844 --> 00:39:35,644 Speaker 1: you're a Pushkin Plus subscriber, we have some bonus content 723 00:39:35,764 --> 00:39:38,764 Speaker 1: for you. We'll be answering a listener question each week 724 00:39:39,204 --> 00:39:40,884 Speaker 1: that's coming up right after the credits. 725 00:39:41,404 --> 00:39:44,604 Speaker 2: And if you're not subscribing yet, consider signing up for 726 00:39:44,844 --> 00:39:46,964 Speaker 2: just six ninety nine a month. What a nice price, 727 00:39:47,364 --> 00:39:50,004 Speaker 2: you get access to all that premium content and ad 728 00:39:50,164 --> 00:39:52,724 Speaker 2: for listening across Pushkin's entire network of shows. 729 00:39:52,844 --> 00:39:55,884 Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kannakova. 730 00:39:55,564 --> 00:39:57,844 Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. The show is a co 731 00:39:57,964 --> 00:40:01,924 Speaker 2: production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced 732 00:40:01,924 --> 00:40:05,444 Speaker 2: by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang. 733 00:40:06,044 --> 00:40:09,004 Speaker 2: Sally Helm is our editor, and our executive producer is 734 00:40:09,084 --> 00:40:11,444 Speaker 2: Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruguer. 735 00:40:11,964 --> 00:40:14,324 Speaker 1: If you like the show, please rate and review us 736 00:40:14,364 --> 00:40:16,684 Speaker 1: so other people can find us too. Thanks so much 737 00:40:16,764 --> 00:40:17,164 Speaker 1: for tuning.