1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cockley and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:26,360 Speaker 2: Okay, there you have it. 7 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 3: The press being escorted out of the Cabinet room after 8 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:34,520 Speaker 3: a whirlwind conversation with President Trump and Prime Minister Victor Orbon. 9 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 3: We didn't know until right before that began if press 10 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 3: would be allowed in the room, and I don't know 11 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 3: if I should use the word devolved but into a 12 00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:46,199 Speaker 3: back and forth that required the Press secretary to come in. 13 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 3: The President called Caroline Levitt from another room in the 14 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 3: White House to chastise reporters for suggesting that the President 15 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 3: was not acknowledging affordability. This is something we've talked about 16 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 3: a lot this week, of course, coming off the election 17 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 3: results on Tuesday. We're going to talk about it quite 18 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 3: a bit more here as well, including geopolitics. He's there 19 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:06,040 Speaker 3: to talk about the war in Ukraine and of course 20 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 3: energy trade with Victor Orbon, which we're going to be 21 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,319 Speaker 3: discussing in just a moment with former Ambassador to Ukraine 22 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 3: William Taylor. Thanks for joining us if you're just getting 23 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 3: into the cycle here on Balance of Power. I'm Joe 24 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:20,400 Speaker 3: Matthew in Washington alongside Tyler Kendall as we bring you 25 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 3: politics from the nation's capital and connect the dots with 26 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 3: what's happening today on Wall Street. Tyler, pretty remarkable visit there. 27 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 3: The old saying about politics stopping at the water's edge 28 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 3: might need to be updated. To hear the Prime Minister 29 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:37,680 Speaker 3: of Hungary sit in the cabinet room at the White 30 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:41,280 Speaker 3: House and denigrate the former president the former administration was 31 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:42,400 Speaker 3: pretty remarkable, right. 32 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:45,199 Speaker 4: And we know that these two leaders have a very 33 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 4: warm relationship. I don't even think we have to say 34 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 4: relatively warm. We know that they have been two allies. 35 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 4: That the Hungarian prime minister did support President Trump when 36 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 4: he was then candidate to Trump and it didn't seem 37 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 4: like his re election was going to happen. So these 38 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 4: two have history here, and of course the pivotal part 39 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 4: of this meeting is that Hungary is trying to use 40 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 4: that relationship and get an exemption when it comes to 41 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:12,480 Speaker 4: these Russian sanctions to these US sanctions on Russian oil 42 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 4: hungry of course a major importer. About ninety percent of 43 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:17,800 Speaker 4: their crude imports come from Moscow. 44 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:21,079 Speaker 2: I mentioned William Taylor, just the voice that we want 45 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 2: for a day. 46 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:25,839 Speaker 3: Like this, former US Ambassador to Ukraine with us live 47 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 3: on Bloomberg TV and radio. Mister ambassador, thank you for 48 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 3: joining us. Some of the language that we heard in 49 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:35,800 Speaker 3: the room today was striking the president saying I stick 50 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:37,960 Speaker 3: up for Victor Orbon. Not a lot of people do, 51 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 3: because in many ways they are jealous. Victor Orbon speaking 52 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 3: to the previous administration saying, after your leaving President, everything 53 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 3: was basically broke, ruined, and canceled. How important is this 54 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 3: relationship for the United States's reputation abroad? 55 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 5: Well through our question, Joe, Victor Orbon is the outlier 56 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 5: in Europe. He supports by large President Putchin and has 57 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:15,800 Speaker 5: been not shy about seeking approval of and friendship with 58 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 5: and cooperation with President Putin, who is, as you pointed out, 59 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 5: over and over invading and has invaded for three and 60 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 5: a half years of Ukraine. So President Trump does have 61 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 5: some leverage there with Premissur Orbon to make it clear 62 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 5: that Orbon should not be buying that Russian oil. 63 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 6: And so we will see. 64 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 5: The answer to your question after they've had this meeting 65 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 5: as to whether or not Orbon can get exemptions from 66 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 5: the sanctions that President Trump has put on Russian oil. 67 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 4: Well, let's talk a little bit more about that, because 68 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 4: we have reporting that Hungary's Prime minister is going to 69 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 4: float some energy deals to the president when it comes 70 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 4: to importing more US ellen when it comes to putting 71 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 4: up nuclear reactors. What does the diplomatic effort look like 72 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 4: to wean hungry off of Russian energy imports. What has 73 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 4: to be done for a solution down the road to 74 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 4: take place so that they're no longer bringing in those 75 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 4: barrels from Moscow. 76 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 6: Well, tatter, we know that that's possible. 77 00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 5: The rest of Europe has done that at great expense. 78 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 5: I mean, this is not easy to go down from 79 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 5: relying on Russian oil to almost weaned, as you say, 80 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:31,680 Speaker 5: from Russian oil. 81 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 6: So it can be done. The Hungarians do get a 82 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:37,120 Speaker 6: lot of oil from. 83 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:42,919 Speaker 5: Pipelines from Russia, but there's another pipeline that doesn't go 84 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:46,480 Speaker 5: from that doesn't come from Russia that they can use. 85 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:50,479 Speaker 6: So it is possible. It is possible, and it will take, 86 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 6: it will take will It'll. 87 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 5: Take a decision by the Hungarians to cut themselves off 88 00:04:56,279 --> 00:05:00,280 Speaker 5: from that oil, and President Trump has the leverage to 89 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:01,239 Speaker 5: to get them. 90 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 6: To do that. 91 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:06,599 Speaker 3: Mister ambassador, what was France thinking? What was Germany thinking? 92 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:13,800 Speaker 3: What was the UK thinking? Watching this conversation, They're all 93 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:14,920 Speaker 3: a little embarrassed. 94 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 5: I imagine that one of theirs, that is one of 95 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 5: the EU members, India NATO member, is apparently sticking up 96 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 5: for the aggression that the Russians. 97 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:28,920 Speaker 6: Have inflicted on Ukraine. 98 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 5: So the rest of Europe is almost unanimous in its 99 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 5: determination to wean itself from Russian energy and has done 100 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:46,360 Speaker 5: that amazingly successful. Orbon is one of two exceptions to that. 101 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 5: And so these other nations are hoping that President Trump 102 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 5: will use the leverage that he has over Prime mister 103 00:05:56,360 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 5: Orban to force him to make the hard decisions. And then, yes, 104 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:03,440 Speaker 5: these other energy deals between Hungary and United States can 105 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 5: take place, but they should take place after Hungary wings 106 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:10,280 Speaker 5: itself from Russian oil. 107 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 4: We have data that shows that the average of Russia's 108 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:17,840 Speaker 4: crude exports for the four weeks ending on November second, 109 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 4: so essentially the last month or so, slumped by the 110 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:23,679 Speaker 4: most since January of twenty twenty four. So it would 111 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 4: appear that these sanctions are causing a squeeze when it 112 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 4: comes to Russian energy exports. But how should we really 113 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:36,240 Speaker 4: be quantifying progress when it comes to a potential solution 114 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:40,960 Speaker 4: to end the ongoing war? Are statistics like that enough? 115 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 4: When you hear President Trump saying it seems like there 116 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 4: could be an end in the quote not so distant future, 117 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,839 Speaker 4: but we really haven't gotten any indications that there's been 118 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 4: progress on the negotiations front. 119 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 5: And there probably won't be tyler on negotiations front. What 120 00:06:56,279 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 5: there could be, though, as what you've indicated, that is 121 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:02,919 Speaker 5: the pressure on Putin, the reduction of the revenues that 122 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:05,359 Speaker 5: he gets from selling oil and gas, some to Hungary 123 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 5: but more to India and China. When that pressure results 124 00:07:09,960 --> 00:07:14,080 Speaker 5: in an understanding by Putin that he's going to lose, 125 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 5: He's going to lose this war. But you're also right, 126 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 5: it's not just the economic pressure. It's going to in 127 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 5: addition to that economic pressure, which is important and as 128 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 5: you say, is already having an effect reducing those revenues, 129 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:31,320 Speaker 5: but in addition to that, Putin has to understand that 130 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 5: the Americans and the Europeans are going to continue to 131 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 5: provide the Ukrainians with the weapons and the finance to 132 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 5: allow them to keep going longer than he can, longer 133 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 5: than Putin can. 134 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 6: Putin is going to realize once. 135 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 5: That happens, that the Americans and Europeans are going to 136 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 5: provide Ukraine with the weapons and the finance to enable 137 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 5: them to outlast him. 138 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 6: At that point, Putin stops the war. 139 00:07:56,040 --> 00:08:01,320 Speaker 3: We asked the Ukrainian ambassador to the US specifically about 140 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:05,480 Speaker 3: Tomahawk cruise missiles when she joined us last evening. Ambassador 141 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 3: Ala Stefanishnya told us, knowing that the DoD had approved 142 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:13,200 Speaker 3: this and the President is considering the deployment of Tomahawk 143 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 3: cruise missiles, that they were actually in talks. There might 144 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:18,040 Speaker 3: be some progress here. Here's what she told us. 145 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 7: The discussion is still ongoing, but we have a lot 146 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 7: of delegations working here deploying Ukraine to scale up the 147 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 7: available financial resources to procure more military capabilities from US. 148 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 7: And it's not only Tomagax at different types of other 149 00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 7: long range and hurt or orange missiles. This dialect is 150 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 7: ongoing and I can only say that it's for a. 151 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 3: Positive, positive negotiations ongoing. That made news and it was 152 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 3: picked up by a lot of news organization's ambassador because 153 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:53,840 Speaker 3: the White House had told us that there were no 154 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 3: talks underway. 155 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 2: Do you think Ukraine will get Tomahawk missiles. 156 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 6: I think they will. I think sooner or later. 157 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 5: Will as you just indicated, the Pentagon says, we got plenty. 158 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 6: We got plenty of tomahawks. 159 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:09,679 Speaker 5: We've been making tomahawks since the late seventies and deploy 160 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 5: them since the eighties, and so there are thousands around 161 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 5: and so that can be and that's what the Pentagon said. 162 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 6: Pentagon said, you. 163 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 5: Don't have to worry about stockpiles because other people were 164 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 5: saying we don't have enough. We have plenty, and this 165 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:25,760 Speaker 5: would be a big boom. This would help Ukraine do 166 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 5: what President Trump has said he wants to do, which 167 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 5: is to stop the war. This is an indication that 168 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 5: the Ukrainians would be able to fight straight deep into 169 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:39,079 Speaker 5: Russia to stop the war. So yes, I think this 170 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:40,000 Speaker 5: is eventually coming. 171 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 4: All right, William Taylor, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, We 172 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 4: thank you so much for joining us here on Bloomberg 173 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 4: Television and Radio today and to extend the conversation. We 174 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:54,440 Speaker 4: want to bring in our political panel, Rick Davis, partner 175 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 4: at Stone Court Capital and in Bloomberg Politics contributor, alongside 176 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 4: another Bloomberg Politics contributor, Gisian Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard 177 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 4: Kennedy School's Ash Center here with us today. Rick, I 178 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 4: want to start with you and just get your overview 179 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 4: of how we just saw this meeting play out in 180 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 4: the cabinet room at the White House, and your thoughts 181 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 4: on President Trump and his relatively warm relationship with the 182 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:19,240 Speaker 4: Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbon. 183 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:23,079 Speaker 6: Yeah, Tyler hasn't been already discussed. 184 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:28,400 Speaker 8: They have a long term relationship that goes back for 185 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:30,719 Speaker 8: quite some time, and not just on a state to 186 00:10:30,800 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 8: state basis. Very politically simpatico. Victor Orbon has participated in 187 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 8: a lot of events hosted by conservative groups in the 188 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 8: United States, both here and in his own country. So 189 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 8: there is a warm relationship that exists there. Highly criticized 190 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:51,959 Speaker 8: by the Democrats, Victor Orbon being seen as much more 191 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:55,680 Speaker 8: authoritarian than others in Europe. And of course we know 192 00:10:55,800 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 8: that Donald Trump doesn't hold that against other world leaders. 193 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 8: And so yeah, this is a bit of a rally 194 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:06,960 Speaker 8: of like minded individuals. But I must say I was 195 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 8: impressed by the fact that Donald Trump really didn't take 196 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:13,959 Speaker 8: the bait on a number of issues related to the Ukraine. Sure, 197 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:16,679 Speaker 8: he did his usual song and dance about how the 198 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:18,920 Speaker 8: war would have never happened, and Biden screwed it up 199 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:24,079 Speaker 8: and echoed by Victor orbon in an incredible exchange where 200 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:27,480 Speaker 8: it defied all sensibilities for a foreign had a state 201 00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 8: to criticize a former president. I mean, pretty outrageous in 202 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 8: the cabinet room of the White House. 203 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 2: Seemed outrageous, Genie. 204 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 3: It was a Republican, you know, a Republican Senator, Arthur Vandenberg, 205 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 3: who actually helped to create the United Nations, who coined 206 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:48,320 Speaker 3: the phrase politics ends at the water's edge. This is 207 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 3: some sort of mirrored version of this where the foreign 208 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:55,080 Speaker 3: actor has crossed the water to come into the White House. 209 00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:59,200 Speaker 3: To Rick's point, into the cabinet room to criticize a 210 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 3: former president of the United States. He said, after you're 211 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:06,360 Speaker 3: leaving president, everything was basically broke, ruined, and canceled. 212 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:10,959 Speaker 2: Was this a moment for you, Jeanie, might have. 213 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:14,280 Speaker 6: Things have changed? Yes, absolutely it was. 214 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 9: You know, it's enough to hear Donald Trump almost daily 215 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:21,680 Speaker 9: wanting to talk about Joe Biden and blame his own 216 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 9: woes on Joe Biden, but then to have the leader 217 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 9: of a foreign nation come over. But of course Victor 218 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 9: orbon is no regular leader of a foreign nation. He 219 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 9: is somebody who was here to visit mar Lago during 220 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 9: the campaign. He was somebody who spoke to Seapack. So 221 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 9: he has a political view. He is not shy about 222 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:43,400 Speaker 9: sharing that. And I think to me, what was so striking, 223 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 9: in addition to the issues involving Ukraine, was how tone 224 00:12:47,160 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 9: deaf this entire exercise was given what happened on Tuesday Night. 225 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 9: For the president to describe affordability, which both polls before 226 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 9: the election, the voter's Tuesday Night and the exit poll 227 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:02,360 Speaker 9: say is the major issue on voter's mind as a 228 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 9: con job, and for him to try to sort of 229 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 9: gaslight Americans and to say, well, you're all wrong. Things 230 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:12,080 Speaker 9: are really good, you just don't know it right. This 231 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 9: is to me how tone death a president with really 232 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 9: good political chops normally has become. And I think Donald 233 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 9: Trump needs to stop going abroad, needs to get himself 234 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:26,360 Speaker 9: out into the United States talk to voters who say 235 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 9: exactly the opposite, including large percentages of his own voters 236 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:34,560 Speaker 9: who crossed the line in New York City, California, Virginia, 237 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 9: New Jersey to vote for a Democrat on the issue 238 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 9: of affordability. So to me, this was tone death to 239 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 9: a degree that it would be very concerning if if 240 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 9: I was a Republican who was going to be running 241 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:50,320 Speaker 9: in twenty six facing voters who are angry and a 242 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:52,679 Speaker 9: president saying affordability is a conjob. 243 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:56,160 Speaker 4: Well, Genie, I'm glad that you brought up affordability because 244 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:57,960 Speaker 4: we want to hit on that as well, since it 245 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:01,440 Speaker 4: didn't really prevail in that conversation that we just saw 246 00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 4: play out in the cabinet room. Of course, a big 247 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 4: part of this is how Americans are feeling about the 248 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 4: economy and the government. We did just get a redhead 249 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:12,960 Speaker 4: on the terminal that the US trans Secretary Sean Duffy 250 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:16,559 Speaker 4: says that US flight cuts could reach twenty percent if 251 00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 4: the situation worsens. And we haven't seen any indication, Joe 252 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 4: at this point that we're getting closer to resolving this 253 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 4: ongoing government shut down. Rick, I want to pose this 254 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:27,320 Speaker 4: to you. I know that you watch US consumer sentiment 255 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 4: really closely. We got the preliminary readings for November today 256 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:34,480 Speaker 4: from the University of Michigan showing that consumer sentiment hitting 257 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 4: near record low today amid the government shut down, amid 258 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 4: uncertainty around tariffs. How are you reading how Americans are 259 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 4: currently reading this economy as we see really no end 260 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:47,880 Speaker 4: in sight at this point for the government to reopen. 261 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 8: I love Fridays when we can get the Michigan Consumer 262 00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 8: Centiment Index. Tyler, thank you so much. It's the second 263 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 8: festival that has taken in politics. The first best was 264 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 8: Tuesday when voters actually voted, and it mirrors very significantly 265 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 8: what we see today in the poliminary aftermens for November, 266 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 8: and that is a significant decrease six and zero point 267 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:14,240 Speaker 8: two percent on the consumer Sentiment index, thirty percent down 268 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:14,920 Speaker 8: from a year. 269 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 6: Think about it. 270 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:19,360 Speaker 8: Ronald Trump was elected one year ago this week, and 271 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 8: the consumer sentiment index has dropped thirty percent during that 272 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 8: period of time. 273 00:15:24,200 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 6: Now, nobody should then be. 274 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 8: Surprised to see the kind of election outcomes that occurred 275 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 8: on Tuesday. 276 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 6: And it's all the way across the board. 277 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 8: I mean, they're significantly down from a year ago on 278 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 8: the future sentiment of people how's it going to be 279 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 8: a year from now? Their current situation down eleven percent 280 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 8: in this one survey. This is one of the lowest 281 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:50,880 Speaker 8: levels the Michigan consumer sentiment has hit compared to even 282 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 8: Joe Biden at the height of inflation. 283 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 6: This is where people are. 284 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:58,880 Speaker 8: So when when Donald Trump starts talking about inflation and 285 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 8: how horrible it was, he ought to think about like 286 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 8: how people are feeling today, because they're in the same position. 287 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 3: We should note that the comments on gas prices didn't 288 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 3: completely add up either. We actually took a look around 289 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 3: here and when it comes to gas prices, Triple A 290 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 3: still has the average above three dollars a gallon, and 291 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 3: it's only about ten cents different than it was one 292 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 3: year ago. So as much as we would all love 293 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 3: to be paying two dollars a gallon, that didn't seem 294 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 3: to actually jive with what we're seeing from Triple A 295 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 3: and from Gas Buddy. Great panel as always, Rick Davis 296 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:33,000 Speaker 3: and Jeanie Shanzo, thank you so much for weighing in, 297 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:34,800 Speaker 3: and I hope you both have a great weekend here. 298 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 3: I also hope you're not flying. We're going to talk 299 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 3: about that coming up with Chris Sanunu. How about that, Tyler, 300 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:44,080 Speaker 3: It could be twenty percent. Sean Duffy is saying as 301 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 3: much to Fox News this afternoon. When it comes to 302 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 3: capacity cuts, they start today at four percent, and people 303 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:52,800 Speaker 3: are already feeling the pain. Chris Sanunu will join us 304 00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 3: next speaking for the airline industry here on Bloomberg. 305 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:57,560 Speaker 2: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 306 00:16:57,560 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 2: more coming up after this. 307 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:06,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 308 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 309 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:13,119 Speaker 1: Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You 310 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:16,639 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 311 00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 1: New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 312 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 3: Not looking so hot today on Wall Street with the 313 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:28,439 Speaker 3: volatility continuing here, although we have seen worse numbers, and 314 00:17:28,480 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 3: we're keeping our eyes on airline stocks as well. They've 315 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:33,639 Speaker 3: been bouncing around a little bit today, not for the 316 00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:38,959 Speaker 3: better as we see these capacity cuts take effect. Tyler, 317 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 3: it made a redhead on the terminal when Sean Duffy 318 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:44,159 Speaker 3: said this could reach twenty percent, but there is no 319 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 3: actual plan for that right that's depending on how long 320 00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 3: the government shutdown goes and some people think it could 321 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 3: end in the next week or so, but the fact 322 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 3: is we'll be at a full on ten percent cut by. 323 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:54,400 Speaker 2: The middle of next week, right exactly. 324 00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:56,359 Speaker 4: This is phased in for now. It started today with 325 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 4: four percent to cut, the Transportation Secretary saying it could 326 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:01,639 Speaker 4: go as high as twenty percent. Of course, this is 327 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:05,200 Speaker 4: at forty airports around the country that we've been watching 328 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:08,440 Speaker 4: very closely. Not impacting international roots, but if you're flying 329 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:11,560 Speaker 4: anywhere domestically, you may get hit with a delay or 330 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,679 Speaker 4: a cancelation. Now at one of those airports, we do 331 00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 4: find our very own Nourra Melinda, who's reporting live all 332 00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:21,360 Speaker 4: day today on Bloomberg at Newark International Airport. Nour can 333 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:23,959 Speaker 4: you just give us any more context today as we 334 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:27,640 Speaker 4: get this announcement from the Transportation Secretary, cuts could reach 335 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,480 Speaker 4: up to twenty percent. What are we seeing right now 336 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 4: on the ground. 337 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:37,119 Speaker 10: While Tyler, this remains to be a fluid situation. Of course, 338 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:39,360 Speaker 10: we have really been hearing a lot about the fact 339 00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:42,640 Speaker 10: that this government shutdown really weighing on TSA workers air 340 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 10: traffic controllers, especially given the fact that they've been unpaid 341 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 10: since October first, when the shutdown began. When we think 342 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:51,119 Speaker 10: about size and scope here, this is a seventy second 343 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:55,200 Speaker 10: worst day in terms of airline cancelations here since January 344 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 10: twenty twenty four. 345 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:57,920 Speaker 6: So not a catastrophe here. 346 00:18:58,000 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 10: Although there were a lot of fears of this potentially 347 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 10: the case, this is not the worst that we have seen. 348 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 10: As we're speaking on the ground to individuals workers here, 349 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 10: they're saying, this is not the first government shutdown that 350 00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 10: they've had to deal with. So we are still hearing 351 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:13,360 Speaker 10: a lot of TSA workers here at Newark Liberty Airport 352 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 10: actually still reporting to work, coming here, serving consumers, serving 353 00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:19,239 Speaker 10: the US customer here, despite the fact that they are 354 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:21,400 Speaker 10: not receiving a paycheck as of yet. 355 00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:26,920 Speaker 3: The seventy second worst day in just a couple of years, Nora, 356 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,200 Speaker 3: that sounds like any old day. What are you talking 357 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:32,440 Speaker 3: to travelers? Are they just getting along with their business? 358 00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:37,080 Speaker 10: I mean some getting along with their business, but also 359 00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:41,119 Speaker 10: we are speaking to some individuals just truly disgruntled, frustrated. 360 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:43,879 Speaker 10: I spoke to a woman earlier, a plastic surgeon coming 361 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:47,199 Speaker 10: trying to fly from EWR from Newark Liberty over to 362 00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:50,239 Speaker 10: Barbados and actually seeing that her flight was canceled and 363 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:53,879 Speaker 10: rescheduled to JFK, and it was an hour earlier, so 364 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,199 Speaker 10: she of course missed that flight as well. So she 365 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:59,120 Speaker 10: is frustrated, of course, blaming us on the US government shutdown. 366 00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:01,440 Speaker 10: But we do know that the majority of the disruption 367 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:06,480 Speaker 10: here is for regional and domestic flights here, not necessarily international. 368 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 10: But you are seeing a broad based frustration across the 369 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 10: US consumers. 370 00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:12,760 Speaker 3: Well, of course that sounds awful, but I don't think 371 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 3: the plastic surgeon not making it to Bermuda is going 372 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,479 Speaker 3: to get into the president's stumpspiece here. Norah, thank you, 373 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:20,879 Speaker 3: you've been great today. Pull on the short straw to 374 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 3: hang out at Newark Airport for an entire day. We 375 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 3: have a special voice free here as we talk about 376 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 3: this story. 377 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:28,880 Speaker 2: Let's get to the heart of the matter. Normal Inta, 378 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:29,680 Speaker 2: thank you so much. 379 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 3: The former governor of New Hampshire is with us, who 380 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 3: is now one of the faces of the airline industry. 381 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:37,480 Speaker 3: In a couple of weeks ago, we had a great 382 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,679 Speaker 3: conversation about this with Chris Sununu, former Republican governor of 383 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 3: New Hampshire now the President of Airlines for America. President 384 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 3: and CEO. What a time for you to start this job. 385 00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:49,919 Speaker 3: Are you sure you want to do month? I tell you, 386 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:51,200 Speaker 3: it's been great. 387 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,639 Speaker 11: I love working for the industry in that there's obviously 388 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:56,439 Speaker 11: a challenge, is a challenge on a normal day, but 389 00:20:56,960 --> 00:21:00,240 Speaker 11: I effectively work for the nine CEOs of the nine 390 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 11: largest air carriers in America. 391 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 2: And they're trying to reopen the government. 392 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:07,360 Speaker 11: Oh yeah, well they're not trying to reopen thegether. Yeah 393 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:10,120 Speaker 11: they're crying. Oh no, absolutely, And it's everything from being 394 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,359 Speaker 11: on the phones to you know, talking to folks on 395 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:15,240 Speaker 11: Capitol Hill and letting them understand that you know what's happening, 396 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,399 Speaker 11: especially with this new mandate to cut back rolling up 397 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 11: to ten percent of flights. I mean, that's that'll hit 398 00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:25,040 Speaker 11: up them alone about one hundred million dollars a day, right, 399 00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,360 Speaker 11: and then you look at the broader economic impact, which 400 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,520 Speaker 11: we estimate to be at least a quarter billion, if 401 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:31,359 Speaker 11: not you know, close to maybe half a billion a 402 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:33,439 Speaker 11: day when you look at the hotel rooms and all 403 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 11: the other things that go with travel. Right, So it 404 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:38,639 Speaker 11: has a huge economic impact. As you can see from 405 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 11: those images right there, These these cuts that are being 406 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 11: mandated really are going to going to effect starting today 407 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,199 Speaker 11: roll about four percent till till Monday, and then that 408 00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:51,480 Speaker 11: scales up to ten percent by next week, all because 409 00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:53,800 Speaker 11: not for anything that the airlines have done or anything 410 00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:56,159 Speaker 11: the American public has done. Unfortunately, these are just the 411 00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,040 Speaker 11: victims of bad politics up on Capitol Hill. 412 00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:02,480 Speaker 4: We're the airline prepared. Was there already a contingency plan 413 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 4: in place and send into motion because we knew that 414 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,800 Speaker 4: this government shutdown was coming and that it wasn't looking 415 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:09,480 Speaker 4: likely like it was going to end anytime soon. 416 00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:12,440 Speaker 11: So the airlines are prepared. They have amazing teams. They 417 00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 11: know how to adjust. I got to say, as if 418 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:18,040 Speaker 11: you told me on day thirty eight that we were 419 00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 11: dealing with a few delays, as you could see from 420 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 11: those and I think the average TSA line today across 421 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:24,920 Speaker 11: the country was like fifteen to twenty minutes. Some got 422 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:26,920 Speaker 11: up to thirty minutes, So what was actually wasn't that bad? 423 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:29,199 Speaker 11: Some as quick as two minutes if you're going through PreCheck. 424 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:30,240 Speaker 6: So both the. 425 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:32,920 Speaker 11: Airlines I think were prepared in terms of being able 426 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:36,680 Speaker 11: to move folks around. The mandated cancelations is different, right, 427 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 11: having delays. We've seen a lot of delays, but actually 428 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 11: very few cancelations up until this point. Now the mandated 429 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:45,840 Speaker 11: castle cancelations being driven for safety. Right, there's real data 430 00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:49,000 Speaker 11: that show that the pressure on the system is going 431 00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:52,359 Speaker 11: to continue to build. Last weekend was some real tough days. 432 00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,639 Speaker 11: Halloween Night was really really tough. That's going to continue 433 00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:58,440 Speaker 11: to grow as the callouts both on the TSA and 434 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:03,280 Speaker 11: the air Traffic controller side increase in the demand bills 435 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,159 Speaker 11: as we get closer to Thanksgiving. So I think the 436 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 11: FAA is being smart and saying, Okay, we're not going 437 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:09,680 Speaker 11: to wait for this thing to come to a grinding halt. 438 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,440 Speaker 11: We're going to ask folks to proactively cancel the certain 439 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 11: number of flights. The head of the FAA, Brian Bedford, 440 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:17,520 Speaker 11: he is terrific. He's a former CEO of an airline. 441 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 11: He totally understands what this impact means. He understands that 442 00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:25,320 Speaker 11: it isn't just we cancel the flight. The managing crews 443 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:27,720 Speaker 11: from point A to point B, knowing that folks could 444 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:30,600 Speaker 11: potentially be stranded because their first flight was fine, but 445 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:33,240 Speaker 11: the second leg is now canceled, moving those folks and 446 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:37,399 Speaker 11: the big messages use your airlines apps to the American public. 447 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:39,800 Speaker 11: They're not going to cancel you last second. They're trying 448 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:42,119 Speaker 11: to do it as proactively as they can. This mandate 449 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:43,919 Speaker 11: really just came down in the last twenty four hours, 450 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 11: so it's going to hit some folks hard. And I 451 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,560 Speaker 11: think the airlines are doing everything they can and really 452 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,480 Speaker 11: successfully so far in managing that customer service aspect. But 453 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,119 Speaker 11: it's tough, and it's all because a bunch of folks 454 00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:57,360 Speaker 11: down the street here not too far from us, keep 455 00:23:57,400 --> 00:23:59,120 Speaker 11: saying no to a continue. 456 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:00,680 Speaker 3: Exactly why you didn't want to serve in the Senate, 457 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,439 Speaker 3: as I remember, was this kind of stuff. But you know, 458 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:05,160 Speaker 3: I flew back and forth to New York this week. 459 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 3: It took me hours to get up in hours to 460 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:10,680 Speaker 3: get back, but I actually felt safe in the process. 461 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:12,399 Speaker 3: And I will say, I mean, I really went out 462 00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:14,560 Speaker 3: of my way to thank TSA workers for showing up. 463 00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,000 Speaker 3: I can't thank air traffic controls because they don't let 464 00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 3: me in the tower, but yeah, well thank you, because 465 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:23,919 Speaker 3: I mean, these are actually all patriots who are showing 466 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,359 Speaker 3: up to keep the country running and that's really important. 467 00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:29,919 Speaker 3: But you're also a politician, well you were anyway, and 468 00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,000 Speaker 3: I'm wondering how you see this moment in time because 469 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:34,239 Speaker 3: it might well be the air traffic control system that 470 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 3: forces an end to this shutdown. Do you think in 471 00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 3: the next couple of weeks everybody gets to the table 472 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:40,600 Speaker 3: here because you just ended a pretty ugly picture. 473 00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,040 Speaker 11: They actually have to because the pressure on the air, 474 00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:45,639 Speaker 11: the aviation system and the national airspace as we hit 475 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:48,360 Speaker 11: Thanksgiving is going to be absolute immense. And I don't 476 00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:51,760 Speaker 11: like using the word disaster, but I think the Secretary 477 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:53,320 Speaker 11: is right. If it doesn't end probably in the next 478 00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,680 Speaker 11: week or the next ten days, there is a chance 479 00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,359 Speaker 11: they have to ramp up beyond templates Thanksgiving. 480 00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,240 Speaker 2: Look like disasters. The word fans used. 481 00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:05,760 Speaker 11: Complete gridlock, complete gridlock because the demand on the system 482 00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,320 Speaker 11: as well beyond you know, it'll hit about three million 483 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:14,200 Speaker 11: passengers a day that forced cancelation and untended delays will 484 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:17,000 Speaker 11: hit really just historic proportions at that point. So this 485 00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:20,119 Speaker 11: is already completely unprecedented, totally. They didn't want to do it. 486 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,040 Speaker 11: There's a lot I know there were some folks saying, well, 487 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:24,959 Speaker 11: where's the data. There's plenty of data. Just look at 488 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:26,399 Speaker 11: the number of call outs we have, look at the 489 00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:28,679 Speaker 11: slowdowns we have. We had a situation in Burbank a 490 00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:30,840 Speaker 11: month ago where they literally had nobody in the tower 491 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,359 Speaker 11: left right now. Thank god they got creative and San 492 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,439 Speaker 11: Diego stepped up and was helping land those planes. We 493 00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:37,439 Speaker 11: have the same thing in Nashville, and Memphis stepped up 494 00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 11: and was helping land those planes. So everyone is pitching in. 495 00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:42,399 Speaker 11: As you said, God bless these workers. Every time you 496 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:44,560 Speaker 11: walk through a TSA line, please say thank you to 497 00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:47,520 Speaker 11: these folks. They have not been paid in over thirty days. 498 00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,480 Speaker 11: You know what the average CSA worker they're getting thirty 499 00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 11: five forty thousand a year. Maybe I don't think these 500 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,960 Speaker 11: are not very well paid individuals, but they keep coming 501 00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:58,359 Speaker 11: to work, they keep doing the forced overtime because they 502 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:00,920 Speaker 11: know how important their job is, inter national and they're 503 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:02,399 Speaker 11: they're just at the tip of the spear of the 504 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:03,359 Speaker 11: victims on this one. 505 00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,240 Speaker 4: Well, one of the vulnerabilities of the air traffic system 506 00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:08,600 Speaker 4: is that it doesn't actually take that many people calling 507 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,440 Speaker 4: out for us to see disruptions. This has long been 508 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,919 Speaker 4: an issue. We've spoken about it many times on this program. 509 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,719 Speaker 4: We like to talk about long term economic impacts, long 510 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:20,919 Speaker 4: term impacts to the workforce. Is there any concern among 511 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:24,560 Speaker 4: the airlines that the shutdown is going to have damaging impacts. 512 00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,000 Speaker 4: Even once the government reopens, is it going to be 513 00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:30,000 Speaker 4: hard to get air traffic controllers are seen to work. 514 00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 6: So a couple of things. 515 00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:32,800 Speaker 11: If you looked at the number of individuals who have 516 00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:35,560 Speaker 11: already retired in the past month air traffic controllers every day, 517 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:37,359 Speaker 11: it could be a player every day, it could be. 518 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 6: Another dozen every single day. This thing goes on because they're. 519 00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,240 Speaker 11: Saying, look, you know, they just they don't want to 520 00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,600 Speaker 11: be part of this frustration anymore in this system. Maybe 521 00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,919 Speaker 11: they're taking their retirement whatever it is now, God bless them. 522 00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,199 Speaker 11: There's about ten eleven thousand of them out there. We 523 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,719 Speaker 11: probably need thirteen thousand in the system. Then you look 524 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:53,640 Speaker 11: at the number of people that are looking to come 525 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 11: in right maybe they were scheduled to come in to 526 00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:58,720 Speaker 11: be part of the training programs for air traffic route 527 00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:02,600 Speaker 11: we've seen those numbers increase quite a bit. These government 528 00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:04,840 Speaker 11: workers that need to certify all that those are government workers, 529 00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:07,200 Speaker 11: well they're all furloughed right now, right, so now they 530 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:09,520 Speaker 11: can't do their job to get the back end of 531 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 11: the pipeline to get people into those towers as fast. 532 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:13,479 Speaker 6: So that's really kind of jammed up. 533 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:17,360 Speaker 11: So every day that this goes on, you're disincentivizing people 534 00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:18,400 Speaker 11: from entering the workforce. 535 00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,240 Speaker 6: And it's a great job. They're wonderful jobs. We have 536 00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 6: great schools. 537 00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,399 Speaker 11: This administrations put money with new technology all over the 538 00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:27,760 Speaker 11: country for this. So the adverse effects other than you know, 539 00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:29,960 Speaker 11: we have delays in a few cancelations to your point, 540 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:31,960 Speaker 11: on the long term, could be absolutely huge. And on 541 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,520 Speaker 11: the economic side, if I may, you're already seeing pull 542 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:35,879 Speaker 11: back from people booking flights. 543 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,200 Speaker 6: Airlines tend to be a lead. 544 00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 11: Economic indicators as you're going to holidays, that's where people 545 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:43,840 Speaker 11: spend spend dollars first, and as those dollars get pulled back, 546 00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:47,080 Speaker 11: they then get pulled back in your regular spends, both 547 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:50,440 Speaker 11: regionally and nationally. So when I talk about the economic 548 00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:54,200 Speaker 11: the overall economic impact being somewhere in the quarter billion 549 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,119 Speaker 11: to a half a billion dollars a day, that's going 550 00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,040 Speaker 11: to have repercussions for months, all the way through the 551 00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:01,400 Speaker 11: holiday season, undoubtedly. So, and the system just doesn't come 552 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:02,359 Speaker 11: back on like a light. 553 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:03,920 Speaker 3: Well, that's what I want to ask you. By the way, 554 00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:05,600 Speaker 3: you can't get a seat on Amtrak right now, but 555 00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:07,560 Speaker 3: how long does it take? We all know what residual 556 00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,159 Speaker 3: delays are like, right, maybe there's a big impact on 557 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,919 Speaker 3: the air traffic control system for like three hours, and 558 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,439 Speaker 3: it takes the next day for everyone around the country 559 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:16,920 Speaker 3: to get back on time if they. 560 00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:18,399 Speaker 11: Come, if they come, if they could, maybe they've gone 561 00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,879 Speaker 11: on vacation, becaus some time with family, who knows. 562 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,240 Speaker 6: So it isn't just a light switch. 563 00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,520 Speaker 11: You'll you'll actually need to see that data and make 564 00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:27,400 Speaker 11: sure folks come in and it's anticipated. 565 00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,120 Speaker 6: Usually it takes a day or two, sure, but there 566 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:30,840 Speaker 6: is a little. 567 00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:32,840 Speaker 11: Bit of a lag there, and then how close is 568 00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,240 Speaker 11: that lag to that holiday weekend and how much of 569 00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:38,200 Speaker 11: people actually pull back in right now? Because the airlines 570 00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:41,120 Speaker 11: have so much flexibility for the customer, people aren't canceling 571 00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,520 Speaker 11: just yet, nor should they. Nobody should cancel. The two 572 00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,719 Speaker 11: big messages are, don't cancel your trip because you can 573 00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:47,640 Speaker 11: wait right up until the end. Really before you cancel, 574 00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:50,479 Speaker 11: say if you had to do that. Secondly, it's safe. 575 00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:54,200 Speaker 11: The safety is not the concern, because that's why we're 576 00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 11: canceling flights. That's why we're slowing things down to ensure 577 00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 11: that safety. So anyone who is traveling feel one hundred 578 00:28:59,880 --> 00:29:02,120 Speaker 11: per safe and secure about the flights that they are taking. 579 00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:02,840 Speaker 6: Think of it this way. 580 00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,200 Speaker 11: No pilot would ever get into an airplane, you know, 581 00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,040 Speaker 11: and take off if they thought it wouldn't think right, 582 00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 11: That would be crazy. So no, this the system itself 583 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:11,760 Speaker 11: is safe. It is just in a bit of this 584 00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:14,760 Speaker 11: inadvertent logjam. So it's frustrating. But you go back to 585 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:17,400 Speaker 11: your visual question. I love the challenge. You know, I've 586 00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,720 Speaker 11: managed everything from a COVID pandemic. Now you know this 587 00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:21,800 Speaker 11: is child That's. 588 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:23,800 Speaker 2: Why you're hearing is a problem solver, Jed Tyler. 589 00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:26,120 Speaker 3: I wouldn't want to have to put this jigsaw puzzle 590 00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:27,560 Speaker 3: together though, with all these roots. 591 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:31,680 Speaker 4: I mean, definitely not. But to continue on your politics expertise, 592 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:34,600 Speaker 4: you mentioned these airlines are talking on Capitol Hill. We 593 00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:36,320 Speaker 4: know that CEOs were at to the White House. Can 594 00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:37,960 Speaker 4: you give us any insight into what the talks are 595 00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,120 Speaker 4: actually looking like when it comes to President Trump's involvement. 596 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:41,800 Speaker 10: We know to. 597 00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:45,320 Speaker 4: Resolve the last shutdown, it really was pressure at the airports. 598 00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:48,240 Speaker 4: Have you gotten any indication that this is going to 599 00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:51,320 Speaker 4: be perhaps the thing that tips this over the edge 600 00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:53,600 Speaker 4: to reopen the government. When it comes to President Trump's 601 00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:54,880 Speaker 4: view of the situation interesting. 602 00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:55,960 Speaker 6: So a couple aspects. 603 00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,040 Speaker 11: Number One, we are definitely hearing, at least on Capitol 604 00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:00,600 Speaker 11: Hill that things are moving. There are discussions happen the 605 00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:03,080 Speaker 11: last I heard, and don't quote me on this, I mean, 606 00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:06,600 Speaker 11: don't make it public or anything, but I believe the 607 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:08,440 Speaker 11: Senate is going to be here through the weekend working. 608 00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:10,600 Speaker 11: That's so that's a good sign. Right, So that's a 609 00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:12,920 Speaker 11: good sign. They wouldn't be spending their time here if 610 00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:14,520 Speaker 11: they weren't, if they didn't think they were making some 611 00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:17,400 Speaker 11: real headway. They know what this new mandate out of 612 00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:21,480 Speaker 11: FAA really means. Secondly, of course, whether you're President Trump 613 00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:26,120 Speaker 11: or Schumer or Thune or the FAA or everybody, should 614 00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:28,320 Speaker 11: be putting kind of pressure on the system, not on 615 00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:28,920 Speaker 11: one side of the other. 616 00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:31,120 Speaker 6: But whatever that next bill is, vote for that one. 617 00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:33,200 Speaker 11: That next bill, I don't care what part are you're from, 618 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:34,040 Speaker 11: Vote for that one. 619 00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:37,800 Speaker 4: Read a message direct to the lawmaker's Christen your new 620 00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:41,320 Speaker 4: airlines for America presidency of course, the former New Hampshire governor. 621 00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:42,880 Speaker 4: Thanks so much for joining us here. 622 00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:45,720 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 623 00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:48,800 Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple 624 00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:51,959 Speaker 3: Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can 625 00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:54,760 Speaker 3: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at New 626 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:57,200 Speaker 3: Time Eastern at Bloomberg dot com