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Speaker 1: Jim Tanker's Lee, the White House correspondent with a focus

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Speaker 1: on economic policy for The New York Times. Author also

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Speaker 1: a couple of years back of the Riches of This Land,

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Speaker 1: The Untold True Story of America's Middle Class, which I

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Speaker 1: haven't read but sounds really interesting. Jim, how are you, sir,

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Speaker 1: I'm great. Thanks for having me. You definitely to read

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Speaker 1: the book. It's good. Oh yeah, you know what, By god,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to read it twice just to make up

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Speaker 1: for not having read it up till now. Thank you,

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Speaker 1: Thank you very much. So our question is what the hell?

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Speaker 1: That's our question about the economy. The various numbers do

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Speaker 1: not match up with history. What the hell? Welcome to

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Speaker 1: my world. This is what I I loki every day

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Speaker 1: and confront this question. It's a weird time, right, I mean,

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Speaker 1: in some ways that makes a lot of sense. We

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Speaker 1: we've just been through an incredibly weird time as a country.

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Speaker 1: We're still in it um with the pandemic and the

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Speaker 1: pandemic recession and then the recovery out of it. And

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Speaker 1: I think the easiest way to put it is, we're

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Speaker 1: just seeing some things we haven't seen in a long time.

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Speaker 1: In the economy because we're still working the thinks out

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Speaker 1: you know, like you guys were mentioning, people have not

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Speaker 1: flocked back to their jobs as fast. I think is

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Speaker 1: at some economist thought, we have a lot of help

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Speaker 1: wanted ads out there still, um, and people are still

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Speaker 1: buying stuff at a really uh fast clip that just

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Speaker 1: they can't get their hands on. So it's pushed a

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Speaker 1: lot of prices up. And then you know, you ad

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Speaker 1: an oil shock from a war uh halfway around the

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Speaker 1: world on top of that, and it's a recipe for

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Speaker 1: just a weird time for sure. And so if indeed

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Speaker 1: it is confirmed that we are in a technical recession

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Speaker 1: or something like that, what's your reaction to that news.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think, um, first off, there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of reasons why. You know, for example, the FED chair J.

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Speaker 1: Pale yesterday said we're probably not in what will eventually

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Speaker 1: be considered a recession, um because particularly because job growth

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Speaker 1: is still so strong. But it's that that doesn't mean

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Speaker 1: it's not a very concerning time in the economy or

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Speaker 1: that we you know, we could be in recession uh

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Speaker 1: any day now. Um. It is, it's a really concerning

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Speaker 1: time in the economy, and I think high inflation is

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Speaker 1: the big reason why people's real incomes so they're buying power,

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Speaker 1: are going down for the most part. And that's. Um,

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Speaker 1: everybody feels that. Everybody feels that that that you know,

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Speaker 1: food is harder to get, gasoline is harder to get

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Speaker 1: than it was a year ago for the money that

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Speaker 1: you have, and um, and the worry would be that

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Speaker 1: that feeds through to everything that employers stop hiring and

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Speaker 1: start laying people off and then and then you're in

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Speaker 1: a really bad shape. But um, what the Fed is

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Speaker 1: trying to do, and now what the Congress may be

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Speaker 1: trying to do a little bit, is to to push

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Speaker 1: back against inflation, try to relieve pressure on prices and

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Speaker 1: and see if they can get the economy kind of

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Speaker 1: back towards something that looks like normal. Well, so whether

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Speaker 1: or not the you know, the geniuses decide we're in

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Speaker 1: a recession or not. I saw some pulling that of

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Speaker 1: Americans think we're in a re action. So you know,

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Speaker 1: that's a that's a pretty big deal politically or in

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Speaker 1: terms of spending habits, although you just mentioned people are

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Speaker 1: still buying stuff like crazy. Um. The coverage of economics

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Speaker 1: has always bothered me because people like to get excited

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Speaker 1: about various things. But would wouldn't it be fair to say,

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Speaker 1: so yesterday you have the Fed raised interest rates to

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Speaker 1: try to slow down the economy because that's what inflation is.

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Speaker 1: It's too hot. We got to slow it down. We

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Speaker 1: find out today where either in a recession or close

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Speaker 1: to it because the economy is slowed down. That was

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Speaker 1: the whole point. I mean, so, isn't that just good

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Speaker 1: news more or less? Um? Well, yes, And if the

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Speaker 1: goal is to slow down the economy and the next

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Speaker 1: day you find out the economy is slowing down, it

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Speaker 1: just seems like a win, right, And I think that

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Speaker 1: I think you know, Chairman Colle was asked about this yesterday,

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Speaker 1: I mean said, is well aware of the ways the

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Speaker 1: economy has been slowing, and they know they've been raising

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Speaker 1: interest rates. They're trying to slow it down, but they

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Speaker 1: don't see as much of the slowing as they want

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Speaker 1: to see yet, not necessarily in terms of growth, but

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Speaker 1: in terms of the job market. But what they want

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Speaker 1: is to is to get um sort of less pressure

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Speaker 1: on prices by reducing sort of the demand out there

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Speaker 1: that people have for things. And they think they're they're

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Speaker 1: being successful, but they're going to keep pushing really hard

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Speaker 1: because they want financial markets and and people um to

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Speaker 1: believe that the FETE is going to reduce inflation so

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Speaker 1: so that we don't get in this spiral where people

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Speaker 1: expect prices to be higher and so they demand higher

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Speaker 1: wages and that just speeds, you know, becomes self self

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Speaker 1: defeating basically. Um So, But to back up to what

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Speaker 1: you just think, I think it's really important. I think

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Speaker 1: that everybody feels like the economy is in a not

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Speaker 1: great place right now. It's not just the or whatever.

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Speaker 1: The various polls shows slightly different numbers, but it's like

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Speaker 1: a majority of Americans think we're in recession. It's consumer

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Speaker 1: competences is in the tank. Um. People have very low

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Speaker 1: approval leadings of the President of the economy right now.

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Speaker 1: People just feel like it's lousy. And that's despite the

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Speaker 1: fact that the uneplant rate is three point six percent

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Speaker 1: and and we're still creating hundreds of thousands of jobs

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Speaker 1: a month. So um, I think that what the FETE

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Speaker 1: is trying to do is attack the thing that is

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Speaker 1: making people feel most loudly, which is inflation. And it's

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Speaker 1: not worrying so much about these economic growth numbers we've

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Speaker 1: seen so far, um, especially because unemployment so low. Jim

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Speaker 1: Tankers leave The New York Times is on the line.

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Speaker 1: Excuse me, Jim, I'm just getting over COVID. Perhaps you've

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Speaker 1: heard about it. It's a disease that allegedly came from

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Speaker 1: Chinese bats. Anyway, UM, into all of this difficult to

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Speaker 1: comprehend economic mix comes yet another factor in this new

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Speaker 1: plan that the Senate seems to be ready to pass,

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Speaker 1: a giant new spending proposal dealing with climate to energy,

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Speaker 1: non related stuff, all sorts of stuff. What's your reaction

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Speaker 1: to that. I know you're part of the team writing

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Speaker 1: about the brand new deal. I boy, I have been

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Speaker 1: covering this deal for what feels like half of my

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Speaker 1: adult life now, as as it goes through various iterations

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Speaker 1: in the Senate. You know, it was it started off

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Speaker 1: as a proposal from the President that the Democrats then

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Speaker 1: put into budget language, and then it it rose and

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Speaker 1: fell and rose and fell, and at this point, I'm

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Speaker 1: you know, I'll believe that it's actually real when the

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Speaker 1: President has signed it into law. However, what they announced

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Speaker 1: yesterday is definitely a much bigger deal. UM. For the

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Speaker 1: Democratic agenda than what it appeared they had on the

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Speaker 1: table just a few days ago. Um. The big components

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Speaker 1: are a prescription drug price reductions for for medicare, which

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Speaker 1: is something that they were probably going to do anyway. Um.

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Speaker 1: But then um, a whole bunch of energy spending and

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Speaker 1: tax credit. Essentially, it's mostly tax cuts um meant to

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Speaker 1: transition the country to like lower emission sources of energy,

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Speaker 1: both both for cars and for electricity. And then some

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Speaker 1: tax increases and corporations basically that that offset that and

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Speaker 1: and pay down the federal budget. Epicite. Um all And

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Speaker 1: I've been talking all morning to economists, as one does,

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Speaker 1: about what it might do for inflation, and the general

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Speaker 1: consensus is maybe it has a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: of a of a positive effect, but which I mean

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Speaker 1: bringing down prices, especially over the medium terms. Wait, wait,

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Speaker 1: wait a second, I just want to make sure I

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Speaker 1: understand that the bill that is named an anti inflation bill.

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Speaker 1: You talked to a bunch of economists and they said

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Speaker 1: maybe it has a little bit Yeah, no, the no.

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Speaker 1: You know economists, most economists are pretty uh, pretty nuanced folks,

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Speaker 1: as you guys have been noting throughout this conversation. Um,

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Speaker 1: and so that they have some forecasts. But yeah, nope,

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Speaker 1: I've talked to us said this is going to dramatically

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Speaker 1: cut inflation. And I don't think there's any way you

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Speaker 1: could expect that that would be the case. It's just

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Speaker 1: not enough money. But it's but there there are a

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Speaker 1: lot of economists who think, um that on the margins

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Speaker 1: it will be helpful. And then in particular areas like

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Speaker 1: like drug costs for for seniors who are on Medicare, Uh,

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Speaker 1: it could be you know, especially impactful. But it's uh

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Speaker 1: for something called the Inflation Production Act. Uh, it is

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Speaker 1: not a massive attack on inflation. Um. And you know,

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Speaker 1: no matter what anybody does politically says about it, it's

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Speaker 1: sort of the economic consptants. Interesting. Well, I'm glad you

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Speaker 1: brought that up. That's that's interesting news. Jim tankers Lee

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Speaker 1: of The New York Times. Jim, I had forgotten you're

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Speaker 1: from beautiful McMinnville. Ore Again. I love the will Lambent value.

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Speaker 1: What a beautiful part of the country. Uh, it is.

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Speaker 1: It's great. It's uh it is. It is beautiful and

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Speaker 1: and spectacular and uh and I miss it all the time.

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Speaker 1: Nice folks, and some fine Peano noir for sipping. Jim.

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Speaker 1: Always great to talk to you. Thanks for the time,

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much for having me. It's always great. So, yeah,

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Speaker 1: that was good. And he's he's really good Jim. He

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Speaker 1: used to be with the Post. Now he's worth the

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Speaker 1: with the Times. And that's a New York Times economic

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Speaker 1: reporter saying he taught to a bunch of different economists.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure that he respects, or he wouldn't be calling

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Speaker 1: him about the big giant anti inflationary bill bull crap.

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Speaker 1: You can call it that, you can call it the

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Speaker 1: given Panda's Better Erections Bill if you want. It's spending

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Speaker 1: a ton of money on a bunch of stuff that

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Speaker 1: seems like they'd be a weird, misleading name. I don't

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Speaker 1: think there's a dollar in there for panda directions. Well,

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Speaker 1: if there were, they could name it that. That's my point.

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Speaker 1: The name is arbitrary political bull duty. But if the

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Speaker 1: New York Times economics guy talks to his friends and

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Speaker 1: they say, yeah, maybe a little, I mean, come here

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Speaker 1: on the edges,