WEBVTT - The Shrinking of the Global Middle Class 0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.400 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Charle Masser and I'm 0:00:04.440 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanibek. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.280 --> 0:00:09.799 you the latest news from the world of business and finance, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.600 plus technology, politics, economics, all purnising the power of Business 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:17.119 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:20.000 analyst in more than one twenty countries. You can download 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:23.200 Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.120 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:27.840 pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:32.479 YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Well, we are seeing progress 0:00:32.520 --> 0:00:34.479 and as well as some concerns when it comes to 0:00:34.479 --> 0:00:37.360 COVID nineteen in the vaccine rollout. The nation's top infectious 0:00:37.400 --> 0:00:40.519 disease doctor heading up the President's COVID team, Dr Anthony Fauci, 0:00:40.840 --> 0:00:43.599 he made some comments at the National Press Club yesterday 0:00:43.680 --> 0:00:46.120 talking about the progress. Yes, but still far from being 0:00:46.159 --> 0:00:50.160 over COVID nineteen. It's really a critical time right now 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:53.440 because we could just as easily swing up into a 0:00:53.520 --> 0:00:58.960 surge that would be a setback for public health, but 0:00:59.080 --> 0:01:03.200 that would be a psych logical setback too. Again, that 0:01:03.240 --> 0:01:05.640 was Anthony Fauci. Of course, Dr Anthony Fauccy, director of 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:08.680 the U S National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases. 0:01:09.080 --> 0:01:11.039 So tim a lot going on. We've got New York 0:01:11.080 --> 0:01:13.959 City saying beaches will open in May, UK rolling out Maderna, 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:16.720 but we've got global case is still above a hundred 0:01:16.720 --> 0:01:20.920 and thirty two million, six eighty nine million shots given worldwide. 0:01:21.120 --> 0:01:22.440 At the same time, we're seeing a lot of news 0:01:22.480 --> 0:01:25.000 when it comes to vaccines, the United Kingdom rolling out 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:28.119 the Moderna vaccine, giving those first shots today, and also 0:01:28.200 --> 0:01:31.400 news from the European Union about Astra Zeneca. So let's 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:33.800 get into it with Dr Sandro Galia. He's Dina Professor 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:37.280 at Boston University School of Public Health, author of the 0:01:37.360 --> 0:01:38.840 upcoming book it will be out in the fall of 0:01:38.840 --> 0:01:41.000 the Contagion. Next time. He joins us again on the 0:01:41.000 --> 0:01:44.360 phone from Boston. The Contagion Next time, Dr Galia, that 0:01:44.560 --> 0:01:48.080 terrifies me. Nice to though half you back here. Thank 0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:50.840 you talk to you. So how do you see kind 0:01:50.840 --> 0:01:53.600 of where we are? I do feel like Dr Fauci. 0:01:53.680 --> 0:01:56.480 We also heard from the President yesterday talking about progresss, 0:01:56.560 --> 0:01:58.320 you know, seeing over the weekend, a day where we, 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:01.840 you know, rolled out four million vaccines vaccinations in the 0:02:01.920 --> 0:02:06.840 United States, and yet there's always those words of caution. Yeah, 0:02:06.840 --> 0:02:10.040 I think we've made remarkable progress before. A million vaccines 0:02:10.080 --> 0:02:12.800 today is extraordinary. We've had hundred fifty million shots since 0:02:13.040 --> 0:02:17.320 President Biden has taken opposite about seventy days, and in 0:02:17.360 --> 0:02:20.359 many respects, we're sort of on the brink of an 0:02:20.360 --> 0:02:23.400 amazing sort of transition making breakthrough. Will have enough people 0:02:23.400 --> 0:02:25.679 who are immunized where it will be difficult for the 0:02:25.760 --> 0:02:28.400 virus to spread. At the same time, there remains the 0:02:28.440 --> 0:02:33.440 concern about the variants and also the concerns as restrictions 0:02:33.480 --> 0:02:35.960 ease and parts of the country, particularly Michigan, you are 0:02:35.960 --> 0:02:39.080 seeing more cases spreading. Now, the cases that are spreading, 0:02:39.120 --> 0:02:42.200 there's a question about demographically. They're affecting more young people 0:02:42.200 --> 0:02:45.000 who have less severe disease, as you know, and as 0:02:45.000 --> 0:02:47.600 we've discussed on the show. So so it's a balance 0:02:47.639 --> 0:02:51.400 of multiple forces, more vaccines, fewer people susceptible, at the 0:02:51.440 --> 0:02:54.760 same time easing of restrictions, more young people getting cases. 0:02:55.120 --> 0:02:57.280 And I think the question on everybody's minds, which you 0:02:57.360 --> 0:03:01.480 heard in Dr Fauci's comments is which of these will 0:03:01.480 --> 0:03:03.600 we be able to push forward first, will be able 0:03:03.639 --> 0:03:06.040 to get it at people vaccinated so that we are 0:03:06.200 --> 0:03:08.720 much less susceptible so that we can really see a 0:03:08.800 --> 0:03:11.560 dampening in the course of COVID or will we have 0:03:11.720 --> 0:03:15.320 other flare ups, other clusters that become outbreaks. What does 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:20.120 the pandemic being gone look like when this turns endemic? Right, 0:03:20.280 --> 0:03:22.160 we do have a flu season every single year where 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:25.280 where thousands and sometimes tens of thousands of people do die, 0:03:25.320 --> 0:03:28.799 but we don't call it a pandemic. That's true, it's 0:03:28.919 --> 0:03:32.400 uh in many respects of it becomes It becomes pandemic 0:03:32.480 --> 0:03:36.400 when we when we establish a baseline prevalence that that 0:03:36.440 --> 0:03:38.680 we grow comfortable with. And of course what that looks 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:42.600 like remains to be seen. But I think most commentators 0:03:42.720 --> 0:03:46.880 have settled on that if we can get the surges 0:03:46.960 --> 0:03:49.280 under control, that this will be something that probably will 0:03:49.320 --> 0:03:51.640 be with us, where we will have some number of 0:03:51.680 --> 0:03:56.400 cases every year, potentially requiring some boosters responsive to variance annually, 0:03:56.880 --> 0:03:59.040 but it will be a disease that we live with 0:03:59.080 --> 0:04:02.520 the same way we live with flu. So you know, 0:04:02.680 --> 0:04:05.680 tell us what's going on at your university, because I 0:04:05.680 --> 0:04:08.520 think the last time we talked in February, you were 0:04:08.640 --> 0:04:11.400 just returning to in person classes. Tell us kind of 0:04:11.400 --> 0:04:14.720 where you are and how things are going. Yeah so 0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:17.839 we so we we continue to offer teaching in a 0:04:17.880 --> 0:04:20.640 combination of in person and hybrid. Most of our students 0:04:21.120 --> 0:04:24.600 are online, but about ten at any one time are 0:04:24.680 --> 0:04:27.360 in person, and our faculty and staff come in as 0:04:27.440 --> 0:04:29.800 needed depending on the teaching needs and the needs of 0:04:29.800 --> 0:04:33.200 the scholarship. We have announced, as have many other of 0:04:33.200 --> 0:04:35.960 our peer universities, that our expectation is that we will 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:38.800 be fully back to in person teaching in the fall 0:04:38.839 --> 0:04:41.640 of starting in September. That we we expect more or 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:46.240 less a return to a business as it was before 0:04:46.240 --> 0:04:49.480 the pandemic in the fall. That will undoubtedly be accompanied 0:04:49.520 --> 0:04:53.200 with some testing. Um whether or not there will be masking, 0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:54.839 I think that remains to be seen. But by the 0:04:54.839 --> 0:04:58.039 expectation of at least at our school, our university, and 0:04:58.080 --> 0:05:01.719 our peers is that the fall, assuming that other things 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:04.240 are not intervene, will be back to teaching in person. 0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:06.919 Is there going to be a requirement for students to 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:10.520 be vaccinated? Yeah, so, we have not put the requirement 0:05:10.520 --> 0:05:12.720 in place yet at our university. But other universities have 0:05:12.760 --> 0:05:16.120 Our universities have announced that they will. Northeastern has, Brown 0:05:16.240 --> 0:05:19.080 University has Rutgers has that their students there will be 0:05:19.120 --> 0:05:21.039 a requirement. And I think it's an active it's an 0:05:21.080 --> 0:05:23.240 active conversation in all the universities right now. Do you 0:05:23.279 --> 0:05:26.840 think they it should it should be a requirement. From 0:05:26.839 --> 0:05:31.359 a medical perspective, I think what matters is that we 0:05:31.480 --> 0:05:35.920 get as many people vaccinated as possible. Whether whether getting nine, 0:05:36.520 --> 0:05:41.240 say of a community vaccinated, requires to make vaccination requirement 0:05:41.320 --> 0:05:42.960 or whether it can be achieve voluntarily. I think that 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:46.440 defends very much on the particular university community. Hey, one 0:05:46.440 --> 0:05:47.799 thing I want to ask you. I'm going to actually 0:05:47.800 --> 0:05:50.800 talk with Arnold Donald, the CEO of Carnival and the 0:05:50.880 --> 0:05:53.760 CDC last night basically came out and said they think 0:05:53.800 --> 0:05:57.599 that we could see some US cruise ships back in 0:05:58.440 --> 0:06:02.240 order by midst are. What do you think about the 0:06:02.240 --> 0:06:06.760 cruise industry and what about that maybe reopening and what 0:06:06.920 --> 0:06:09.560 needs to be done? Well, I sort of I think 0:06:09.720 --> 0:06:12.039 I think I believe it was Viking that they said 0:06:12.040 --> 0:06:14.120 they will be reopening cruising but only for people who 0:06:14.160 --> 0:06:17.000 are vaccinated. And I think I think when the CDC 0:06:17.200 --> 0:06:20.520 isn't requiring that in the US so far not so 0:06:20.560 --> 0:06:22.040 far now, I mean, I think you know what you're 0:06:22.080 --> 0:06:24.600 doing from a business, from from the enterprise perspective, of 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:27.560 the Viking perspective, you are saying that you are only 0:06:27.600 --> 0:06:30.159 going to have people obviously in close quarters, but people 0:06:30.160 --> 0:06:33.880 who are very low risk for transmission who have been tested, um, 0:06:33.920 --> 0:06:35.840 so you know they don't have COVID and essentially create 0:06:35.880 --> 0:06:38.240 a close community where there's no COVID in so there's 0:06:38.240 --> 0:06:40.280 no covidentt side. So so COVID is not going to 0:06:40.320 --> 0:06:42.120 spread and people who are at low risk. You know, 0:06:42.160 --> 0:06:46.480 the key about the vaccines is we know that people 0:06:46.480 --> 0:06:48.920 who are vaccinated can still get COVID and can still 0:06:48.960 --> 0:06:52.560 transmits COVID probably, But the key is that the case 0:06:52.600 --> 0:06:54.720 of COVID among people who are vaccinated that have been 0:06:54.760 --> 0:06:58.360 documented are much milder than they were before COVID. So 0:06:58.720 --> 0:07:01.280 so really this is part of Jim's question of us 0:07:01.400 --> 0:07:03.360 learning to live with COVID, like, what does it mean 0:07:03.800 --> 0:07:06.080 if there are still case of COVID but they're milder, 0:07:06.360 --> 0:07:08.120 and what's our tolerance for that? And I think all 0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:10.680 of that's being sorted out right now yeah, milder, and 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:13.640 that they don't necessarily do the same damage that they 0:07:13.640 --> 0:07:16.600 would have done to us if we weren't vaccinated, because 0:07:17.240 --> 0:07:20.200 we don't get as sick as the studies have shown. Hey, 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:22.920 what about variance. Where do variants come into this conversation. 0:07:23.280 --> 0:07:26.080 What's the latest thing you're seeing with how they're being 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:28.720 able to spread more rapidly and also possibly make the 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:32.520 vaccines lefs less effective. Yeah, the the the answer is 0:07:32.720 --> 0:07:35.280 yes to both. I think they the best data are 0:07:35.400 --> 0:07:39.480 that the variants and make make transmission more efficient and 0:07:39.520 --> 0:07:41.680 also have the vaccines being less effective. Having said that, 0:07:42.200 --> 0:07:45.360 having said that, the leading vaccines out there right now, 0:07:45.480 --> 0:07:48.920 the best evidence suggests that they remain maybe fifty maybe 0:07:48.960 --> 0:07:53.000 sixty effective against some of the variants um the transmissions, 0:07:53.000 --> 0:07:55.240 so they are not jumps up with the variants. So 0:07:55.480 --> 0:07:58.320 essentially they make the virus more dangerous. It makes it 0:07:58.360 --> 0:08:00.880 more dangerous for US and and and our line of defense. 0:08:00.920 --> 0:08:04.800 Vaccine less effective, but we do retain effectiveness of vaccine, 0:08:04.880 --> 0:08:08.160 which then brings us back to our best approach right 0:08:08.160 --> 0:08:10.400 now is to vaccinate as many people as possible, to 0:08:10.480 --> 0:08:12.800 leave the virus as little space as possible to move 0:08:12.800 --> 0:08:16.520 around your book coming out in the fall, The Contagion, 0:08:16.560 --> 0:08:22.200 the next contagion next time? Ah, what should we as 0:08:22.320 --> 0:08:27.480 global citizens be preparing for? Well, the the central thesis 0:08:27.520 --> 0:08:31.040 of the book is that we undoubtedly will be spending 0:08:31.040 --> 0:08:33.559 a lot of time focusing on biosurveillance and vaccines and 0:08:33.600 --> 0:08:35.320 all that, and all that's important, that we should do 0:08:35.360 --> 0:08:37.520 all that, but a lot of what's been going on 0:08:37.559 --> 0:08:40.319 in the past year is about our social and economic 0:08:40.360 --> 0:08:43.240 structures that left us exposed to this vaccine. It's about 0:08:43.360 --> 0:08:46.440 underlying health and equities that created health haves and health 0:08:46.440 --> 0:08:49.640 have not that the vaccine exploited, that when the appologies 0:08:49.679 --> 0:08:53.360 that the the epidemic exploited. That unless we tend to 0:08:53.480 --> 0:08:56.840 those underlying issues, the next contagion will end up with 0:08:56.880 --> 0:08:59.920 the same devastations socially and economically that we saw happen 0:09:00.120 --> 0:09:02.240 this time. So it really, Carol, builds on a lot 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:04.079 of conversations you and I have had over the past 0:09:04.280 --> 0:09:06.880 year and a half since the pandemic has been around 0:09:06.880 --> 0:09:11.920 that that we cannot we cannot buy our way out 0:09:11.920 --> 0:09:15.000 of the consequences of a pandemic simply by dealing with 0:09:15.440 --> 0:09:18.600 vaccines and biosurveillance. That we actually need to tend to 0:09:18.640 --> 0:09:21.679 the underlying issues that that a large proportional population has 0:09:21.760 --> 0:09:25.040 underlying commor abilities that makes them vulnerable to illness when 0:09:25.160 --> 0:09:27.680 when the pandemic hit, that a large proportion of population 0:09:28.000 --> 0:09:30.600 has no choice but to actually go to work physically 0:09:30.600 --> 0:09:32.880 in person, which then means that we have a hard 0:09:32.880 --> 0:09:35.240 time control and transmission when a pandemic it. So the 0:09:35.240 --> 0:09:36.520 pieces of the book really is that we need to 0:09:36.679 --> 0:09:38.800 tend to these things. So very briefly, I mean, do 0:09:38.840 --> 0:09:41.760 you see anything policy wise coming out of Washington that 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:43.560 that does help deal with these things? We just heard 0:09:43.559 --> 0:09:45.480 from the President about is two point two five trillion 0:09:45.480 --> 0:09:48.760 dollar infrastructure plan. Is there anything in there that would 0:09:48.760 --> 0:09:50.840 help so much? I do? I do. I actually think 0:09:50.840 --> 0:09:53.160 the singles from Washington have been have been very promising. 0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:55.240 Of course, it's opening to proven. The putting is in 0:09:55.240 --> 0:09:57.239 the eating and depends on how these things are implemented. 0:09:57.640 --> 0:10:00.120 But I think what the President is propos is in 0:10:00.280 --> 0:10:04.600 the infrastructure plan paying attention particularly investing in narrowing health gaps, 0:10:04.600 --> 0:10:07.400 that these are steps that we should be taking. Frankly, 0:10:07.440 --> 0:10:09.320 we should have taken as a country thirty four years ago. 0:10:09.480 --> 0:10:11.880 So I'm heart I'm heartened by these signals coming out 0:10:11.880 --> 0:10:16.240 of Washington, right, I mean water, you know, equality, jobs, 0:10:16.360 --> 0:10:20.680 I mean exactly. Um, so nice to catch up with you, Sanders, 0:10:20.720 --> 0:10:23.600 Stay safe. Dr Sandra Gallea. He's dean and professor at 0:10:23.600 --> 0:10:26.360 Boston University School of Public Health. He's author of the 0:10:26.400 --> 0:10:28.880 upcoming book it will be out in the fall, The 0:10:28.880 --> 0:10:31.520 Contagion Next time, joining us once again on the phone 0:10:31.520 --> 0:10:34.000 from Boston. I've said it before, what I love talking 0:10:34.960 --> 0:10:36.720 or why I love talking to him as we get 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:39.840 the medical perspective, we get the academic perspective of what's 0:10:39.840 --> 0:10:43.600 going on in education because it has been so impacted 0:10:43.679 --> 0:10:45.840 because of the pandemic. So Tim great to check in 0:10:45.880 --> 0:10:48.920 with him. Yeah, it always is. And um, Boston University 0:10:49.040 --> 0:10:51.120 still not not just decided with what they're going to 0:10:51.160 --> 0:10:54.480 be doing when it comes to requiring vaccinations. Yeah, exactly. 0:10:54.520 --> 0:10:56.320 They expect to be back in the fall with some testing. 0:10:57.600 --> 0:11:00.319 So in the upcoming issue Bloomberg Business Week magazine Scene 0:11:00.520 --> 0:11:02.520 and it turns out it's also a most read story 0:11:02.520 --> 0:11:06.440 on the Bloomberg Today. It's about millions tumbling out of 0:11:06.440 --> 0:11:09.319 the global middle class in a historic setback. Not a 0:11:09.320 --> 0:11:11.679 good thing to him, No, I gotta turned my mic 0:11:11.720 --> 0:11:13.280 on there. Not a good thing at all. And you know, 0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:15.000 we were lucky enough to speak to Sean Donna, and 0:11:15.040 --> 0:11:17.800 senior trade and globalization reporter at Bloomberg News a little 0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:20.719 earlier in the day on Quick Take to talk all 0:11:20.760 --> 0:11:23.520 about what has changed over the last year because of 0:11:23.520 --> 0:11:26.079 the pandemic. So Sean, come on in here. You're joining 0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:28.599 us on the phone from Maryland. Talk to us a 0:11:28.640 --> 0:11:31.840 little bit about what happened in during the pandemic with 0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:34.480 regard to the middle class and why it was such 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:37.920 a big deal that so many people fell out of 0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:41.960 the middle class. Well, thanks for having me again. Uh, 0:11:42.000 --> 0:11:45.240 it's uh, Look, what we've seen in the past year 0:11:45.360 --> 0:11:48.720 with the pandemic is really the upending of all sorts 0:11:48.760 --> 0:11:52.720 of economic truths, right and the end and the challenging 0:11:52.760 --> 0:11:55.840 of big ideas. And this is one that's kind of 0:11:55.880 --> 0:12:00.400 gone by unnoticed for thirty forty years. This this is 0:12:00.440 --> 0:12:04.679 around the world have embedding on this big growing new 0:12:04.720 --> 0:12:08.480 middle class and emerging economies and it's been ever growing. 0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:10.839 There's been this escalator to the middle class. It's just 0:12:10.920 --> 0:12:14.680 kept churning out new middle class, uh people in places 0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:18.680 like India and Indonesia and the Philippines and obviously China 0:12:18.760 --> 0:12:21.480 as well. What we saw was the pandemic and the 0:12:21.520 --> 0:12:24.360 economic crisis that came with it was for the first 0:12:24.400 --> 0:12:27.840 time in decades these economies, a lot of these economies 0:12:27.880 --> 0:12:31.400 were contracting. And when they contracted, what also contracted the 0:12:31.480 --> 0:12:33.880 number of people in that middle class. And the big 0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:36.840 question that we've got now, is this just a blip, 0:12:37.000 --> 0:12:40.800 is this a one time thing, or as these economies 0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:43.760 and we've heard this from the IMF this week, recover 0:12:43.960 --> 0:12:48.480 more slowly than advanced economies like us, is it going 0:12:48.520 --> 0:12:50.720 to be harder to get those people back into the 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:52.760 middle class And is that going to be a bigger 0:12:52.840 --> 0:12:55.760 drag on growth? And is that going to really change 0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:58.880 or force a change in thinking by a lot of 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:02.080 business exact and these CEOs around the world who've been 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:06.000 betting in all of these consumers in new and exciting places. Yeah, 0:13:06.120 --> 0:13:09.360 it's such a great perspective. Jill Webber, Bloomberg Business Week editor, 0:13:09.440 --> 0:13:11.920 on the Access line in Brooklyn. I can just see 0:13:12.000 --> 0:13:14.920 Joel when Sean was talking to you about this idea, like, oh, yeah, 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:18.000 I'm in yeah, And you know, I think the thing 0:13:18.040 --> 0:13:22.080 that really distinguishes it. It was the ability of the 0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:25.280 newsroom to make this a truly international story. It's like, 0:13:25.320 --> 0:13:27.520 you know, I think, I think we've talked about the 0:13:27.600 --> 0:13:32.360 China middle class um for basically almost every every story 0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:37.160 about UM, Chinese consumers for for a decade plus now. UM. 0:13:37.240 --> 0:13:40.120 But you know it's much bigger than that, um, the 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:42.880 global middle classes of the American middle class, right um. 0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:45.600 And and these are people who have actually risen reason 0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:48.600 out of poverty around the world. UM. And I think 0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:52.480 the scary part, as this package shows, is you know, 0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:56.360 the grip the grip of gravity, I guess really and 0:13:56.600 --> 0:14:00.920 when um, when we have this much wealth spread across 0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:03.680 the world and this many people that are being sucked 0:14:03.720 --> 0:14:08.880 back towards poverty, it's going to become another economic challenge 0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:11.520 for not just like the next year or two, but 0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:14.800 potentially for for you know, years to come. UM. It 0:14:14.920 --> 0:14:18.640 makes stories like vaccines all the more relevant because the 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:24.600 developing world remains what well behind the developed on that front. Um. 0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:27.240 So so all of those were really interesting. Me and Shahna, 0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:29.560 you know, being a guiding hand in all of this, 0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:32.080 you know, take us, take us through some of the countries, 0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:35.800 and what jumped out to you and what you learned. Yeah. 0:14:35.840 --> 0:14:37.680 So look, I mean one of the really important things 0:14:37.800 --> 0:14:39.720 with this story, and I think with any economic story 0:14:39.800 --> 0:14:42.960 is really the hit at at who's affected. And so 0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:46.520 we went out and uh we spent time talking to 0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:49.320 reporters in our bureaus, and we found we really ended 0:14:49.400 --> 0:14:52.760 up focusing on four countries. And in India we talked 0:14:52.760 --> 0:14:55.640 to a guy called Ratty Sharma, and Rabbi is a 0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:59.120 really interesting guy, father of two beautiful daughters. You've been married, 0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:02.560 and last year he was hoping for his wedding anniversary 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:05.680 to give his wife their first car. And the car 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:08.360 in particular that he'd been saving up for for years 0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:12.000 is a six thousand dollar car. It's called the Maruti Alto, 0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:15.200 and it's really the entry level car for uh, the 0:15:15.240 --> 0:15:18.960 American middle class. I'm trying to think of an American equivalence, 0:15:19.000 --> 0:15:23.560 probably the Toyota Corolla or or or a Ford Fusion. Uh. 0:15:23.680 --> 0:15:26.600 The uh. Then we we went out over to Thailand, 0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:30.080 and Thailand an amazing story and that it's really about 0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:32.720 us and how we're not traveling internationally and we're not 0:15:32.760 --> 0:15:35.560 going to these places that depends on tourists. And in 0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:39.520 Thailand this year they expect to have three million UH 0:15:39.880 --> 0:15:43.000 visitors in two thousand nineteen before the pandemic at thirty 0:15:43.120 --> 0:15:47.360 nine million visitors. And we'd talked to their this woman YadA, 0:15:47.440 --> 0:15:51.680 who's a street hawker there selves uh snacks and and 0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:55.240 fruit juice to tourists and those tours that she relies on. 0:15:55.800 --> 0:15:57.880 And she used to have a house and a mortgage 0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:00.800 and in a car with a car payment. Um that 0:16:01.160 --> 0:16:04.000 income has just gone and she's defaulted on both of 0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:07.480 those and moved into a rental house and very kind 0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:09.040 of something that I think a lot of people in 0:16:09.080 --> 0:16:14.200 American middle class can can can feel for. Uh. Then 0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:17.480 we went to South Africa and South Africa a young 0:16:17.560 --> 0:16:21.200 woman who has you know, moved into her first apartment 0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:24.880 and lost her job last year, was a big retailer 0:16:25.000 --> 0:16:28.440 that was getting close to bankruptcy. She moved back to 0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:30.840 the family home. But the important thing here is she's 0:16:30.880 --> 0:16:33.360 moved from this kind of steady job in the formal 0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:36.320 economy with an apartment in the formal economy to like 0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:39.120 this portfolio of side hustles and one of the biggest 0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:41.520 ones that she's built a room out back of the 0:16:41.560 --> 0:16:44.160 family home that she can rent out for a hundred 0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:47.240 dollars months. And then finally we we go to Brazil 0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:50.360 into this woman friends and that uh and friends and 0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:55.080 that is a secretary. She has a comfortable middle class 0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:58.080 existence like a lot of Brazilian she loves beef. But 0:16:58.240 --> 0:17:00.720 you know what, the price of food has changed so 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:03.200 much in the past year. Uh, and they've got a 0:17:03.240 --> 0:17:06.919 real problem with food price inflation there in Brazil that 0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:10.920 she's now Uh. There's certain meatless Mondays in the meatless Tuesdays, 0:17:11.040 --> 0:17:13.440 and they're also when she goes to the butcher, she's 0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:15.359 looking at things like kidney and liver, the kind of 0:17:15.359 --> 0:17:18.119 thing that uh. You know, we think of its past 0:17:18.119 --> 0:17:21.639 generations who are trying to say with penny uh witty. 0:17:21.880 --> 0:17:24.520 But we've seen and that is borne out in the 0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:28.520 in the data in Brazil where beef sales have tanked 0:17:28.840 --> 0:17:31.800 and we've seen more people buy chicken, and in particular, 0:17:31.880 --> 0:17:35.480 eggs are selling in a record clip in Brazil. So 0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:39.919 it's the fundamental reshaping of people's lives that we're seeing 0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:43.920 out there in emerging economies in ways that are uh 0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:46.600 that should really resonate with a lot of people in 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:49.919 the American middle class, and ways that are gonna drag 0:17:49.960 --> 0:17:52.160 on for a lot longer. The other way to think 0:17:52.160 --> 0:17:53.920 about all of this, if she's you back up, is 0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:56.000 if we think about the last crisis in two thousand, 0:17:56.480 --> 0:18:00.000 two thousand and nine that hit the American middle class 0:18:00.000 --> 0:18:02.920 pretty hard, and it was a decade of slow recovery 0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:06.200 after that that led to also it had all sorts 0:18:06.200 --> 0:18:08.879 of political repercussions the emerging economy is that pretty well 0:18:08.880 --> 0:18:11.960 around that crisis. This time around, the American middle class 0:18:12.000 --> 0:18:15.160 is probably gonna come out of this okay. In emerging economies, 0:18:15.200 --> 0:18:18.560 it's going to be a very different story. And there's 0:18:18.600 --> 0:18:23.119 this word um bifurcating that um we've talked about in 0:18:23.200 --> 0:18:25.119 terms of what the what that means for the for 0:18:25.160 --> 0:18:27.560 the global economy, Sean, And you know, so much of 0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:29.879 the story is backward facing, and basically, you know that 0:18:29.920 --> 0:18:31.919 little tour of the world that Sean just gave us, 0:18:31.920 --> 0:18:35.120 we have great charts and data points for for all 0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:39.040 of those um things in the in the story, and Sean, 0:18:39.280 --> 0:18:42.000 I'm just curious when you think about, you know, what's 0:18:42.040 --> 0:18:44.159 to come here, like what are the what are the 0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:46.920 moments and and data points that you will be sort 0:18:46.920 --> 0:18:48.679 of on the lookout as a reporter for in the 0:18:48.800 --> 0:18:52.000 in the month slash years to come. That will will 0:18:52.040 --> 0:18:55.520 help us understand just how devastating this past year has been. 0:18:55.720 --> 0:18:59.080 So and you gotta be quick. I'll be really I'll 0:18:59.080 --> 0:19:00.960 be really quick here. And it's the same one that 0:19:01.000 --> 0:19:02.680 we're all looking at here in the United States, and 0:19:02.760 --> 0:19:04.920 that's how quickly we get back to where we were 0:19:05.240 --> 0:19:07.639 in the path that we're on beforehand. In a place 0:19:07.720 --> 0:19:10.440 like India, it's gonna end this year with an economy 0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:13.040 that's five percent or so smaller. In the US, it's 0:19:13.080 --> 0:19:15.760 going to be one point six percent smaller. Place like Indonesia, 0:19:15.800 --> 0:19:18.520 it's going to be closer to like ten smaller this year. 0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:21.280 That's the gap that you need to close. And that's 0:19:21.800 --> 0:19:24.080 what comes ahead and why it's so important. It's some 0:19:24.119 --> 0:19:25.920 of what we've talked about. Tim. I'm just thinking about 0:19:25.920 --> 0:19:29.760 our conversations with Joseph Stieglitz Nobel Laureate talking about the 0:19:29.800 --> 0:19:32.040 developed having to take care of the developing nations and 0:19:32.160 --> 0:19:35.359 really be aware. Hey guys, thank you so much. Bloomberg Business, 0:19:35.359 --> 0:19:37.320 we get it. Or Joe Weber, Bloomberg News Senior Trade 0:19:37.320 --> 0:19:40.320 and Globalization reporter Sean don Don that story by the 0:19:40.359 --> 0:19:45.280 Way will be the upcoming issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine. 0:19:49.119 --> 0:19:53.159 This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg 0:19:53.240 --> 0:19:58.159 Quick Takes Tim Stinovik on Bloomberg Radio. Alright, so just 0:19:58.280 --> 0:20:00.520 check in here because this was is the most it 0:20:00.640 --> 0:20:04.240 still is. I just looked. I just looked, Carol in 0:20:04.280 --> 0:20:07.080 the last eight hours, the most read story. This is 0:20:07.119 --> 0:20:09.480 what folks are reading about, and listen, no doubt about. 0:20:09.520 --> 0:20:12.359 It's about how Jamie Diamond said he's optimistic the pandemic 0:20:12.359 --> 0:20:14.560 will end with a U. S economic rebound that could 0:20:14.600 --> 0:20:18.160 last at least two years. Yeah, people want to read 0:20:18.240 --> 0:20:20.439 what Jamie Diamond has to say, and this is his 0:20:20.520 --> 0:20:25.639 longest letter ever, sixty six pages. Is Wall Street reporter 0:20:25.760 --> 0:20:30.080 joining us right here in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. Sheelie. 0:20:30.119 --> 0:20:32.480 Great to have you back on the show. Hey, why 0:20:32.520 --> 0:20:35.359 do you think everybody wants to know what Jamie Diamond 0:20:35.440 --> 0:20:38.639 is thinking? It's so funny you asked this, because twice 0:20:38.640 --> 0:20:41.119 today somebody has asked me. People have asked me, readers 0:20:41.160 --> 0:20:44.480