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Speaker 1: welcome to Hoops Tonight, presented by fan Duel here at
Speaker 1: the volume. Happy Monday, everybody. I hope all of you
Speaker 1: guys had a great weekend and that your weeks are
Speaker 1: off to a good start. We are back in the studio.
Speaker 1: It is not finished yet. I promise we're not going
Speaker 1: in front of this blank wall all season. I have
Speaker 1: a bunch of stuff that's gonna be there. It's just
Speaker 1: not there yet. But hey, at least it's a lot
Speaker 1: better than those cabinets that you guys all uh felt
Speaker 1: like roasting me for last week. So um, bear with me.
Speaker 1: We're almost completely done. Feels good to have this set
Speaker 1: up and made some permanent changes, especially off camera, that
Speaker 1: are gonna make this a lot easier for me this year.
Speaker 1: We're continuing with our power rankings today. Now. Our power
Speaker 1: rankings have been doublings like season previews, so we're doing
Speaker 1: deep dives into the to the teams, especially into their personnel.
Speaker 1: Change is in what they like to do on both
Speaker 1: sides of the floor. Um. Last week we got a
Speaker 1: little derailed by the Donovan Mitchell trade because number fifteen
Speaker 1: in my list was Chicago. Obviously they're not fifteen anymore
Speaker 1: with Cleveland. Call them fifteen, b call them sixteen. I
Speaker 1: don't care. We're moving past them and the Pelicans are
Speaker 1: gonna be taking that fifteen spot. So today number fifteen,
Speaker 1: the New Orleans Pelicans. You guys know the drill before
Speaker 1: we get started. Subscribe to the volumes YouTube channels. You
Speaker 1: don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on
Speaker 1: Twitter at underscore Jason lt s you guys, don't miss
Speaker 1: show announcements. And last but not least, if you miss
Speaker 1: one of these shows and you can't get back over
Speaker 1: to YouTube to finish them, remember you can find them
Speaker 1: in audio form wherever you get your podcasts. Under Hoops tonight.
Speaker 1: So to give you guys an idea for those of
Speaker 1: you missed it last week. The format we're going with here,
Speaker 1: we're gonna briefly touch on last year, touch on player
Speaker 1: personnel changes, deep dive on offense, deep dive on defense,
Speaker 1: what their best case scenario is, what their worst case
Speaker 1: scenario is, and who their biggest X factor is, player
Speaker 1: that has a player concept, coach, whatever thing that has
Speaker 1: the biggest swing capability and when it comes to the
Speaker 1: outcome of their season. So, last season was a down
Speaker 1: year in terms of health for the Pelicans. That really
Speaker 1: really hurt them. CJ. McCollums, I and Williamson and Brandon
Speaker 1: Ingram combined to only play in eighty one games. So
Speaker 1: as a result, just in general, today we're gonna be
Speaker 1: spending the vast majority of our attention looking forward rather
Speaker 1: than looking backwards, just simply because there's just not a
Speaker 1: lot you can take from a team that's gonna be
Speaker 1: playing completely different players this season. None of it's going
Speaker 1: to translate as smoothly um. But last year, with what
Speaker 1: they had in terms of availability, they were nineteenth in offense,
Speaker 1: eighteenth in defense. Obviously bad on both fronts. But at
Speaker 1: the end of the season, when they started to get healthy,
Speaker 1: things started to click and there were a lot of
Speaker 1: things for Pelicans fans to get excited about. They finished
Speaker 1: the season nine and six. In their last fifteen games,
Speaker 1: they won both playing games, and then they took a
Speaker 1: very good Sons team with Chris Paul playing at the
Speaker 1: very peak of his ability right before he fell apart.
Speaker 1: In the second round, they took that Son's team to
Speaker 1: six games in really impressive fashion. I thought the revelation
Speaker 1: of that playoff run, or the end of the season
Speaker 1: run was Brandon Ingram, who average twenty nine six and
Speaker 1: six on true shooting in the playing games and then
Speaker 1: twenty seven six and six on fifty eight percent shooting
Speaker 1: in the first round. I did a deep dive on
Speaker 1: brandon Ingram during our player rankings, So if you I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna over, you know, dive back into those things today.
Speaker 1: So if you're looking for brandon Ingram uh analysis and
Speaker 1: you didn't catch our earlier video, go deeper into our
Speaker 1: feed player rankings, and that eleven to fifteen video is
Speaker 1: where we did the deep dive into brandon Ingram. So
Speaker 1: they didn't do much this offseason, but that's a good thing.
Speaker 1: That's too uh David Griffin's benefit. Now, I I don't
Speaker 1: agree with everything that David Griffin has done since he
Speaker 1: got into that position. You know, him beefing with Lebron
Speaker 1: was weird. He's a little bit egotistical, but I do
Speaker 1: think he knows the basketball. I do think he's a
Speaker 1: good GM and I think that's evidenced in the way
Speaker 1: this roster has come together, especially with the types of
Speaker 1: players that he's found on the wing. I really like
Speaker 1: Trey Murphy, I really like Herb Jones, and those are
Speaker 1: guys that he found on the margins. And then you
Speaker 1: add in um A. Dyson Daniels, their first round draft
Speaker 1: pick from this season. Once again, we did a deep
Speaker 1: dive into Dyson Daniels for our pre draft stuff, so
Speaker 1: you can find that deeper in our feed. But they're
Speaker 1: really interesting and really deep. On the wing, Dyson Daniels
Speaker 1: is kind of like a you know, he's a defensive
Speaker 1: minded wing that can make plays with the past attacking
Speaker 1: clothes out, So kind of a similar archetype to Dale
Speaker 1: and Terry when we were talking about Chicago, except for
Speaker 1: I think Dyson Daniels has much better physical tools and
Speaker 1: particularly is more physically developed. Good that he was with
Speaker 1: the G League. Um, I think that helped him a
Speaker 1: lot in that regard, but I think that's gonna make
Speaker 1: him more NBA ready right now. But outside of that,
Speaker 1: not a whole lot else. Iron signed his extension, which
Speaker 1: is good obviously, and then their second round draft pick
Speaker 1: e J. Ladell ended up tearing his A C L
Speaker 1: at summer league, so he won't factor into this particular season.
Speaker 1: But good you your team that's on the right track.
Speaker 1: You've got a great core. You didn't screw that up,
Speaker 1: so that's that's good. In terms of their offseason approach,
Speaker 1: their depth chart as of right now at the guard position,
Speaker 1: I see see Jim McCollum, DeVante Graham, Garrett Temple, Kira Lewis,
Speaker 1: and Jose Alvarado. On the wing, Brandon Ingram I'm calling
Speaker 1: Zion Williamson a wing. I don't even know what you
Speaker 1: call him. At this point. We're gonna talk a lot
Speaker 1: about Zion today. Um, Dyson Daniels, Trey Murphy and Herb Jones.
Speaker 1: They're big, Jonas Valanciunas, Larry Nance, Jackson Hayes, and Willie
Speaker 1: heren On Gomez. That's gonna be really interesting core. Depending
Speaker 1: on where's Ion fits in their lineup, someone's gonna get
Speaker 1: screw uh, get squeezed there. I think it might end
Speaker 1: up being Jackson Hayes. We'll see. All right, let's talk
Speaker 1: about the offensive end of the floor. We're gonna do
Speaker 1: a deep dive into what they did last year as
Speaker 1: well as what I expect them to do this year
Speaker 1: now that Sion Williamson is back in the picture. So
Speaker 1: they were a heavy post up team. There were six
Speaker 1: in total post ups this year. Big part of that
Speaker 1: was Jonas Valanciunas. Um, if I ask you, guys who
Speaker 1: you thought the highest volume post up players in the
Speaker 1: league were, you'd probably say Nicola Yo Kitchen, Joel embat
Speaker 1: and you would be right. But guess who's third on
Speaker 1: that list. It's Jonas Valanciuna as they throw the ball
Speaker 1: down there to him a lot um. He does okay there,
Speaker 1: but he's not. He scores less than one point per
Speaker 1: possession on post ups, So in general, I'd like to
Speaker 1: see them do a little bit less of that. This year.
Speaker 1: They run a lot of off ball actions with CJ.
Speaker 1: Mccollumin brandon Ingram to get them attacking with an advantage.
Speaker 1: This is very similar to what I was talking about
Speaker 1: with the Chicago Bulls was Zach Lavine and Demarda Rosen.
Speaker 1: I think of it as like an off ball pick
Speaker 1: and roll. Essentially, it's the same type of reads, like
Speaker 1: if you come off the screen and you're open, you
Speaker 1: shoot it right. But if you don't and the defenders
Speaker 1: chasing you, you're trying to work curling around the screen
Speaker 1: to get downhill into the lane to force the defense
Speaker 1: to rotate, or obviously get all the way to the
Speaker 1: rim if you can. This turned into a really interesting
Speaker 1: chess match with Phoenix because New Orleans is not a
Speaker 1: good pick and roll team, at least they weren't during
Speaker 1: this regular season. They were the third worst pick and
Speaker 1: roll team in the entire NBA on a per possession basis.
Speaker 1: So essentially, Monty Williams wanted to take New Orleans out
Speaker 1: of their off ball actions and forced them to run
Speaker 1: more heliocentric style with c J mcollum and Brandon Ingram
Speaker 1: attacking with a live dribble out of pick and roll.
Speaker 1: So what he did was he straight up top sided
Speaker 1: on Brandon Ingram and c J McCollums, so he'd have
Speaker 1: Jay Crowder and Michael Bridges position themselves like backside to
Speaker 1: half court in the way of Brandon and c J.
Speaker 1: Where they were trying to come off their screens, kind
Speaker 1: of like straight up giving a backdoor cut if they
Speaker 1: wanted to, but just trying to disrupt that initial attack
Speaker 1: in their offense. I thought it was a really smart
Speaker 1: strategy for Monty Williams, and particularly in the early part
Speaker 1: of that series, you can see that have an effect
Speaker 1: on New Orleans in their confidence on the offensive end
Speaker 1: of the floor. They did get off to a slow start,
Speaker 1: particularly in Game one. Um The interesting dynamic there though,
Speaker 1: was even though in the regular season the Pelicans average
Speaker 1: zero point eight points per pick and roll possession, which
Speaker 1: again was third worst in the entire league, they bumped
Speaker 1: that up to one point per possession which is solid
Speaker 1: against the Sun's. A huge part of that was Jose
Speaker 1: Alvartrado played extremely well, DeVante Graham played extremely well coming
Speaker 1: off the bench, and Cje McCollum is one of the
Speaker 1: better pick and roll players in the league as well.
Speaker 1: I don't want to do talk about it too much
Speaker 1: further again, because like I said, I did a deep
Speaker 1: dive into this for the player rankings, but brandon Ingram
Speaker 1: passing out of high pick and roll was amazing to watch.
Speaker 1: In this particular playoff run, he already is seeing the
Speaker 1: floor and passing at a higher level than a lot
Speaker 1: of his peers at that position around the league. He's huge,
Speaker 1: so he can see the floor well, He's got these
Speaker 1: long arms so he can make these like slingshot, like
Speaker 1: catapult passes across the court to the weak side corner.
Speaker 1: Just just really high level stuff from him. It was
Speaker 1: a huge part of why I had him as high
Speaker 1: in my player rankings as I did. What was the
Speaker 1: interesting chess match of that series was Phoenix turning New
Speaker 1: Orleans into a pick and roll team even though they
Speaker 1: didn't want to be, and then then succeeding anyway because
Speaker 1: they had four ball handlers who all did well in
Speaker 1: pick and roll in that series. Um. CJ McCollum was
Speaker 1: the eighth best pick and roll player in the league
Speaker 1: last year to run at least three pick and rolls
Speaker 1: in the regular season. Obviously, he did well in that
Speaker 1: playoff series as well. Didn't shoot the ball as well
Speaker 1: as he'd like, but he's a guy that's going to
Speaker 1: generate quality offense there. Um. The interesting thing I wanted
Speaker 1: to talk a little bit about c J. C J
Speaker 1: is a really interesting player because he's not a fantastic
Speaker 1: athlete at the shooting guard position, but he does a really,
Speaker 1: really good job of protecting the basketball with a live dribble.
Speaker 1: And this is something that I talked about a lot
Speaker 1: with young players. How many times, either as a young player,
Speaker 1: have you seen this or have you done it yourself
Speaker 1: where you're dribbling in front of somebody and you try
Speaker 1: to do a crossover dribble in front of your body
Speaker 1: and the defender just kind of reaches their hands out
Speaker 1: and pokes it away from you, and you can't figure
Speaker 1: out how they sat on it. You can't figure out
Speaker 1: how they got to it, but they got to it.
Speaker 1: Now they're running the other way for a layup. It
Speaker 1: happens a lot, and with the kids that I coach,
Speaker 1: I always tell him the same thing, like, when you
Speaker 1: have distance between you and the defender in front of you,
Speaker 1: you can do things like crossover dribbles, but specifically when
Speaker 1: you're like up close and personal with the defensive player
Speaker 1: who has his hand out and is trying to disrupt
Speaker 1: your dribble, you need to protect the basketball, and the
Speaker 1: easiest way to do that is to dribble between your legs.
Speaker 1: You have to take long, lunging steps and protect the
Speaker 1: basketball by dribbling between your legs. C J McColl him
Speaker 1: the vast majority of his dribble combinations are done between
Speaker 1: his legs to protect the basketball. The other thing that
Speaker 1: he does really well is called snaking the pick and roll. Essentially,
Speaker 1: imagine it like this. If a guard is chasing you
Speaker 1: over the top of the screen, one of the easiest
Speaker 1: ways to make it harder for him to actually get
Speaker 1: over the screen is to make him navigate around the
Speaker 1: screen for longer. So if you come around the screen
Speaker 1: to the right and then you immediately snake back to
Speaker 1: the left side of the floor, that guard has a
Speaker 1: harder time navigating it's like him trying to go around
Speaker 1: around about as you can imagine. Um. C J. McCollums
Speaker 1: snakes to pick and roll extremely well. He's also great
Speaker 1: pull up jump shooter. He took eleven pull up jump
Speaker 1: shots per game in this regular season and made them
Speaker 1: at a fifty effective field goal percentage that's field goal
Speaker 1: percentage waited for three point shots. He also averaged five
Speaker 1: assists per game. So just having a couple of really
Speaker 1: high end pick and roll ball handlers in Brandon Ingram
Speaker 1: and c J. McCollum made that interesting. And then with
Speaker 1: Jose Alvarado and Davante Graham playing well off the bench,
Speaker 1: they were able to hang with a really, really good
Speaker 1: team in Phoenix. Valance Junist was the was the what
Speaker 1: I thought was the most interesting kind of conundrum that
Speaker 1: the Pelicans found themselves in in that Phoenix series. So
Speaker 1: to give you an idea, in a hundred and seventy
Speaker 1: five minutes with him on the floor against Phoenix, they
Speaker 1: were minus fifteen and a hundred and thirty hundred and
Speaker 1: thirteen minutes with him off, they were plu us six,
Speaker 1: and specifically on the defensive end of the floor, they
Speaker 1: were eleven points seven points better with him off the floor,
Speaker 1: and it's the classic bigs verse perimeter players debate that
Speaker 1: I'm always having with you guys on the show. M
Speaker 1: Valancinis brings a ton of things to the table as
Speaker 1: a dominant big man. He is an outstanding offensive rebounder
Speaker 1: in the NBA's pretty solid in the short roll, so
Speaker 1: when he catches the ball in pick and roll in
Speaker 1: the middle of the floor, he's good at making reads
Speaker 1: to his teammates, lob passes to someone cutting back door,
Speaker 1: hitting shooters in the corner. He's got like a really
Speaker 1: kind of jankie looking kind of like push shot or
Speaker 1: floater in the lane that he makes quite a bit.
Speaker 1: And then obviously high volume post up guy that succeeds
Speaker 1: the average zero point nine eight points per possession and
Speaker 1: post ups. So he does all these things that help
Speaker 1: you right. Obviously, if he's standing right underneath the basket
Speaker 1: and somebody tries to score over him, he can bother
Speaker 1: them with a length. But because he's a slow footed big,
Speaker 1: he hurts you in all these other areas of the game.
Speaker 1: He got absolutely destroyed in pick and roll by the
Speaker 1: Phoenix Suns. That's a huge part of why their defense
Speaker 1: was so bad with him on the floor. He's just
Speaker 1: too slow to be put in positions as a defender
Speaker 1: where he either needs to cover ground meaning he's covering
Speaker 1: a perimeter player in open space, or in pick and
Speaker 1: roll where he's got to split the difference between multiple
Speaker 1: players being up on Chris Paul did his way to
Speaker 1: pull up while also getting back to dissuade the lob
Speaker 1: with DeAndre, and he's just not really capable of doing
Speaker 1: that and extremely high level. So in general, even though
Speaker 1: he did all these good things, like once again he
Speaker 1: destroyed Phoenix on the offensive glass, he scored the basketball
Speaker 1: around the rim, he did a lot of good things,
Speaker 1: but in the aggregate, when you factored in the things
Speaker 1: that he was hurting the team in as a defensive
Speaker 1: player in particular and also was spacing, I didn't think
Speaker 1: it was actually a good arrangement, and they didn't do
Speaker 1: well with him on the floor against Phoenix. I think
Speaker 1: he's good to have on the roster. He can eat
Speaker 1: innings in the regular season, but in the playoffs. Moving forward,
Speaker 1: I'd like to see them favor Larry Nance at that
Speaker 1: five spot because of what he can do on the
Speaker 1: perimeter with his scale, he could shoot the ball and
Speaker 1: attack close outs things like that. And then on defense
Speaker 1: he's a lot more mobile. You can use him in
Speaker 1: a drop coverage. He's not gonna be a great drop
Speaker 1: coverage big, but he can do that. But in general,
Speaker 1: he can do the more versatile defensive stuff like switching
Speaker 1: and pick and roll or guarding in transition when he
Speaker 1: has to pick up a different man in transition. I
Speaker 1: just like Larry Ants a little bit better in that spot,
Speaker 1: and I don't think it was a coincidence that they
Speaker 1: played better with Larry Ants on the floor in this
Speaker 1: particular playoffs, uh, playoff run. But when we're projecting forward
Speaker 1: for this Pelicans team, we have to factor in Zion Williamson.
Speaker 1: You know, this is the number one overall draft pick
Speaker 1: from a few years back, so he's obviously going to
Speaker 1: be some type of focal point in the offense. And
Speaker 1: it's a different Everything is different than the last time
Speaker 1: he played. Not only was c J. McCollum not there,
Speaker 1: but the team is more serious. This is a Pelicans
Speaker 1: team that probably is talking about how they have a
Speaker 1: chance to win the West. Now do I think they
Speaker 1: have a chance to win the West? No, we'll get
Speaker 1: further in to that, but the reality is is this
Speaker 1: is a team with real ambitions now, and this is
Speaker 1: a team that has more you know, competent ball handling
Speaker 1: around him. So it's gonna be a different role than
Speaker 1: it was last time. Last time he played, he was
Speaker 1: in a major on ball role. They had him trying
Speaker 1: to run point guard a lot. He was running a
Speaker 1: lot of grible handoffs with J. J. Reddick. It was
Speaker 1: a whole thing, right, It's gonna be a lot different
Speaker 1: this time around in this particular system. So I thought
Speaker 1: the best way to do that, or to try to
Speaker 1: project that, is to take a look at what Zion's
Speaker 1: skill set is and how it fits with this particular group.
Speaker 1: Let's think like coaches for a minute, right, So what
Speaker 1: is ion specific skill set um for a forward? He
Speaker 1: handles the ball really well and he can pass the
Speaker 1: ball really well. So there, that's a good point, a
Speaker 1: good starting point. As an athlete, he's a mismatch against
Speaker 1: basically any type of defender. It kind of reminds me
Speaker 1: a little bit of Janice in that regard, where it's
Speaker 1: like he's way too quick for the big players and
Speaker 1: way too big for the quick players. And that goes
Speaker 1: for are the big, strong wings like Jayson Tatum, who
Speaker 1: I think is one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball,
Speaker 1: or Andrew Wiggins. You know what, those type that archetype
Speaker 1: of defensive wing is not going to be able to
Speaker 1: handle the low center of gravity and strength that Zion
Speaker 1: Williamson has. That's the type of mismatch problem that he
Speaker 1: presents to everybody. He is, without a doubt, not even
Speaker 1: close the best rim finisher in basketball, even better than Janice.
Speaker 1: Last year or last time you played him and Janice
Speaker 1: both played sixty one games. Zion lad the entire NBA
Speaker 1: and restricted area field goal makes with five hundred and forty,
Speaker 1: which was a hundred and thirteen more than Janice. To
Speaker 1: give you some perspective, this year, I was talking about
Speaker 1: how Zion average excuse me, Janice average like six point
Speaker 1: seven restricted area makes per game and Lebron was right
Speaker 1: there because he was averaging six point six in one campaign.
Speaker 1: Zion average nine restricted area makes per game. This sky
Speaker 1: is just physically impossible to keep away from the rim.
Speaker 1: That's the type of mismatch problem that he is. So
Speaker 1: we have to think about how he fits alongside these
Speaker 1: Pelicans lineups. Now, the first problem is is you can't
Speaker 1: play him at the five. We discovered in that campaign
Speaker 1: that defensively, he's not capable of doing what a backside
Speaker 1: rim protector can do or a typical good back line
Speaker 1: defender can do, right, So they're gonna have to play
Speaker 1: him alongside some sort of big man. The temptation is
Speaker 1: going to be to play alongside Jonas Valanciutis a lot.
Speaker 1: I expect him to start alongside Jonas Valanciunis, but like
Speaker 1: we talked about earlier, I'm not a huge fan of
Speaker 1: that specific fit because of the negatives that come with Jonas.
Speaker 1: So my hope is that in the long run that
Speaker 1: they pair him a lot with Larry Nance as that
Speaker 1: backside defender gives him a ton of athleticism in the
Speaker 1: front court. That could be really, really interesting. So when
Speaker 1: we think about what the Pelicans have around Zion this
Speaker 1: time around, right, we got c Jim McCollum, who's an
Speaker 1: outstand n shooter and ball handler. Brandon Ingram is an
Speaker 1: outstanding ball handler and probably will shoot the ball well
Speaker 1: from the perimeter this year, or if Jones, who didn't
Speaker 1: shoot the ball overly well in this last regular season.
Speaker 1: We'll get to him a little bit more in a minute,
Speaker 1: but they typically will have some kind of shooting threat
Speaker 1: in that the ree spot and then somebody as a
Speaker 1: big let's call it Larry Nance for the sake of
Speaker 1: just talking this through in terms of offensive concepts. So
Speaker 1: from there, I still like the idea of some of
Speaker 1: the dribble handoff stuff that they were doing with him
Speaker 1: and J. J. Reddick again, that that doesn't have to
Speaker 1: be necessarily something that's looking for Zion. You could use
Speaker 1: him pretty similar to the way that the Nuggets used
Speaker 1: Nickel Yokich, and they use his threat to get openings
Speaker 1: for his guards. If you could imagine Zion Williamson initiating
Speaker 1: actions for Brandon Ingram and C. J. McCollum coming off
Speaker 1: of their you know, curls, there's wide curls, but with
Speaker 1: a dribble handoff was Zion Williamson, that could add a
Speaker 1: whole other dynamic to how difficult that is to defend
Speaker 1: and really open things up for them on the offense
Speaker 1: of endo the floor. So I still like dribble handoff stuff.
Speaker 1: I really like the idea of him as a short
Speaker 1: roller with Brandon Ingram and c Jim mccollumn against short
Speaker 1: roll is when you don't roll hard to the rim,
Speaker 1: but you'd rather kind of soft roll to the middle
Speaker 1: of the floor. You catch a pocket pass there and
Speaker 1: you either continue to go to the rim, or you
Speaker 1: make reads to your teammates, or you can shoot floaters
Speaker 1: or quick little pull up jump shots and things like that.
Speaker 1: The other thing I'm really excited for is the spaced ISOs.
Speaker 1: This is a team that should, in theory, especially with
Speaker 1: specific lineups, especially with Larry Nance on the floor, have
Speaker 1: outstanding spacing, and Zion is just gonna catch really favorable
Speaker 1: matchups every single game, spacing the floor for him and
Speaker 1: allowing him to rip through to his left and go
Speaker 1: to the rim. That's the way that I see him
Speaker 1: being used, not as point Zion like they did the
Speaker 1: last time he played, but a little bit of on
Speaker 1: ball stuff as a dribble handoff guy, and then a
Speaker 1: whole lot of stuff as a screener and what he
Speaker 1: could do to open things up for himself as a screener,
Speaker 1: and then of course attacking matchups with spaced out ISOs
Speaker 1: zooming out a couple before we moved to the d
Speaker 1: defensive end of the floor. I wanted to touch on
Speaker 1: just a couple of their role players, not all of them,
Speaker 1: just the ones that I find particularly interesting today. Um,
Speaker 1: I really like Herb Jones obviously is an outstanding defensive player.
Speaker 1: We're gonna get more to Herb Jones on the defensive
Speaker 1: end of the floor in a minute, but right now,
Speaker 1: they the Pelicans need him to take a little bit
Speaker 1: of a leap offensively. He did shoot against Phoenix, but
Speaker 1: it was really low volume. He's in general, is a
Speaker 1: really low volume shooter and shoots about thirty three. Obviously,
Speaker 1: he's young right now, his release is too slow, so
Speaker 1: he's too hesitant when he gets some shot like he
Speaker 1: just he doesn't have a quick enough trigger to make
Speaker 1: teams pay for guarding for not guarding him. And he's
Speaker 1: not consistent enough as a shooter to make teams pay
Speaker 1: for not guarding him. So that's the thing they're gonna
Speaker 1: have to figure out. Jose Alvarado is excellent pushing the
Speaker 1: pace for them. You can feel that energy change every
Speaker 1: time he checks into the game. He just likes to
Speaker 1: get going on a full run. Do again. The advantage
Speaker 1: of attacking that way is it keeps a defense from
Speaker 1: getting set and leads to more helter skelter stuff. A
Speaker 1: lot of times you can catch favorable matchups that way.
Speaker 1: Because transition defense it's usually dictates that you grab the
Speaker 1: person nearest to you. It's an easy way to get
Speaker 1: favorable matchups. He's also really solid and pick and roll,
Speaker 1: and he had a really good pick and roll playoff
Speaker 1: series against the Phoenix Phoenix Suns. I really like Trey Murphy.
Speaker 1: He kind of fell out of the rotation against Phoenix,
Speaker 1: probably because Monti Williams doesn't trust him enough on the
Speaker 1: defensive end of the floor. But he does have the
Speaker 1: physical tools to be a good defensive player, so I'm
Speaker 1: hoping that he gets a bigger role this season. The
Speaker 1: reason why I like him is he's a gunner. He
Speaker 1: averaged about eight three point attempts per thirty six minutes
Speaker 1: this year. Um, he's everything that Herb Jones is not
Speaker 1: as a spot up guy, hunts three point shots, has
Speaker 1: a quick release you know, isn't bothered by mild contests,
Speaker 1: offers real floor spacing. You can even push that shot
Speaker 1: out to almost like feet comfortably. I really really like
Speaker 1: what he could potentially be for them as a three
Speaker 1: and D guy. There's some potentially exciting stuff there too.
Speaker 1: You can start to imagine line ups with Brandon Ingram,
Speaker 1: Herb Jones, and Trey Murphy all on the floor together,
Speaker 1: and the type of length and versatility they could have
Speaker 1: on the defensive end of the floor if he takes
Speaker 1: a leap defensively. Jackson Hayes is the interesting one. He's
Speaker 1: an outstanding athlete. He's a little bit out of control
Speaker 1: when you watch him play, a little bit of a
Speaker 1: bull of a China bull in the China Shop. But
Speaker 1: I think his rotation spot is going to be the
Speaker 1: one that ends up getting squeezed with Zion returning. So
Speaker 1: let's move to the defensive end of the floor. So
Speaker 1: they were a bad defensive team last year. They ranked eighteenth,
Speaker 1: but health was a big factor in that. Uh. They
Speaker 1: did have some interesting line up data though, that I
Speaker 1: think projects for what they could have in some specific
Speaker 1: scenarios on the defensive end of the floor. Their scheme
Speaker 1: is pretty consistent with what you see around the rest
Speaker 1: of the league. They run drop coverages with Jonas Valanciunas,
Speaker 1: chase shooters over the top of screens and try to
Speaker 1: funnel things to Jonas in the paint. They do uhum,
Speaker 1: a little bit of dropping with Nance as well, but
Speaker 1: he's a little bit more switchable. And then typically one
Speaker 1: through four they switched just about everything that they can,
Speaker 1: which is to David Griffin's credit, they gave he came
Speaker 1: up with a roster with the right type of personnel
Speaker 1: to be able to do that type of switching. They
Speaker 1: were pretty damn good at defending the paint. They were
Speaker 1: pretty damn good in transition, and they were pretty damn
Speaker 1: good securing defensive rebounds. Those three areas in particular all
Speaker 1: point towards Willie Green, especially when you factor in that
Speaker 1: Jonas Valanciunas is not exactly the best rim protector in
Speaker 1: the NBA and that they don't necessarily have the best
Speaker 1: defensive personnel. It means they have a great help scheme
Speaker 1: that clogs the paint and makes it so that as
Speaker 1: a team they defend the painted area. Obviously, transition defense
Speaker 1: is big on attention to detail too. That's sprinting back
Speaker 1: and communicating and getting matched up and then defensive rebounding,
Speaker 1: boxing out on every possession and having guys crash from
Speaker 1: the perimeter. That's all coaching. That's all attention to detail.
Speaker 1: And you know that there's a lot of attention in
Speaker 1: this particular team devoted towards the players for good reason,
Speaker 1: right Like Brandon Ingram is a great player, ce Jim
Speaker 1: mcollums a great players. Ian Williamson or Jones has been
Speaker 1: the revelation this year, right, But Willie Green deserves a
Speaker 1: ton of credit for what he's done with this group
Speaker 1: and and the way that he's got them bought in
Speaker 1: and playing hard every single night, and the defensive identity
Speaker 1: that he's built with this group. He deserves a lot
Speaker 1: of credit for that. They do air on the side
Speaker 1: of leaving shooters to help in the paint, though, and
Speaker 1: that was the weakness in their defense. They did allow
Speaker 1: the sixth most made threes and the fifth highest percentage
Speaker 1: in terms of their opponents three point percentage. R Jones
Speaker 1: was the biggest bright spot on the defensive end of
Speaker 1: the floor last year. His role grew as the season progressed.
Speaker 1: By the end of the season, he was a huge
Speaker 1: minute guy for them. He's a super disruptive perimeter defender,
Speaker 1: kind of Kauai esque in the ability that it has
Speaker 1: that the natural knack he has to take the basketball
Speaker 1: away from ball handlers, particularly with a live dribble. He
Speaker 1: had a hundred and thirty steels last year, which was
Speaker 1: third in the entire NBA, which is insane for a
Speaker 1: young defensive wing like that. Um In terms of technique,
Speaker 1: I think it's really fascinating because you know, a lot
Speaker 1: of young players reach in on defense. That's to be expected.
Speaker 1: It's it's just kind of a bad basketball habit that
Speaker 1: a lot of young players have. And when I say
Speaker 1: reaching in, I mean lunging out of position, Like they
Speaker 1: will lunge forward to get the basketball and reach and
Speaker 1: in the process throw their entire body out of balance.
Speaker 1: And so, yeah, you might get the basketball every once
Speaker 1: in a while, you might force a turnover and you
Speaker 1: might be running the other way. But the rest of
Speaker 1: the time, if it's a competent ball handler you're guarding,
Speaker 1: they're just gonna go right around you because now your
Speaker 1: body's out of position. And what what Herb Jones does
Speaker 1: so well, and it kind of reminds me of Kauai
Speaker 1: is he can be disruptive with his hands without getting
Speaker 1: his body out of whack. So he's not lunging, he's
Speaker 1: just putting his hands in places where the ball usually
Speaker 1: is while staying square with you and sliding with you. Obviously,
Speaker 1: it helps to have obscenely long arms to do that,
Speaker 1: but that in terms of technique is the way that
Speaker 1: herb Jones can be disruptive without giving ground as a
Speaker 1: defensive player. When brandon Ingram and herb Jones shared the
Speaker 1: floor together last year, they had a hundred and six
Speaker 1: point eight defensive rating, which is excellent for perspective. Boston
Speaker 1: led the league last year as a team with the
Speaker 1: one oh six point two. Now, when you start messing
Speaker 1: with line up data and that gets a little tricky,
Speaker 1: but that's just one qualifier. Just brandon Ingram and herb
Speaker 1: Jones together, they defended pretty damn well, and that's something
Speaker 1: that you can take as a huge positive looking forward.
Speaker 1: Brandon Ingram in general is gonna be the main kind
Speaker 1: of like fulcrum for their defensive potential next year because
Speaker 1: he has shown a tendency throughout his career too given
Speaker 1: to have given take in terms of his effort on
Speaker 1: that side of the floor. Obviously, his defensive potential is
Speaker 1: insanely high with his physical tools, but he can just
Speaker 1: be lazy sometimes when when he was in with the
Speaker 1: Lakers in Los Angeles, he defended extremely well, and then
Speaker 1: he went to New Orleans and took a bigger offensive
Speaker 1: role and kind of let go of the rope there.
Speaker 1: Had a pretty bad defensive season for the most part
Speaker 1: last year, but then was really good towards the end
Speaker 1: of the year, particularly in that playoff run. So that
Speaker 1: potential verse reality thing with Brandon Ingram, whether or not
Speaker 1: it's the good defensive version of Brandon Ingram or the
Speaker 1: lazy one, that's gonna be a huge indicator for them
Speaker 1: this season. Jose Alvarado is a really interesting defensive player too,
Speaker 1: not just everyone will focus on the famous videos of
Speaker 1: him sneaking up from behind and taking the ball away,
Speaker 1: but he's just downright disruptive even in the half court
Speaker 1: as well. He's he kind of reminds me of Patrick
Speaker 1: Beverley with his knack for freelancing, like randomly double teaming
Speaker 1: or randomly sneaking from one side of the floor to
Speaker 1: the other. The there there's just it's hard to explain.
Speaker 1: There's there's just like an instinct to it, like a
Speaker 1: a seeing things before they happen type of of of
Speaker 1: basketball i Q thing that some defensive players have, and
Speaker 1: Jose Alvarado has that, and he's just got a knack
Speaker 1: for blowing up plays by freelancing. Some players freelance and
Speaker 1: it destroys everything for your defense. Russell Westbrook, for instance,
Speaker 1: will freelance and almost always get burned. There are guys
Speaker 1: out there like Jos Alvarado, like Patrick Beverley, you can
Speaker 1: do a little bit more of that freelancing without getting
Speaker 1: in as much trouble for it. It's a timing thing,
Speaker 1: it's an instinct thing. I don't really have a better
Speaker 1: way of describing it. But when Jose Alvarado, Brandon Ingram
Speaker 1: and Herb Jones were on the floor together or last year,
Speaker 1: they had a defensive rating of eighty five point seven.
Speaker 1: Now is in a pretty small sample size, only forty
Speaker 1: six minutes, But that's an interesting trio that I wouldn't
Speaker 1: mind seeing a little bit more this year. The key
Speaker 1: to them on the defensive end is gonna be hiding Zion.
Speaker 1: Zanion is a bad defensive player right now, and just
Speaker 1: about every facet of the game, he's got bad instincts.
Speaker 1: His decision making in terms of when to help versus
Speaker 1: when to stay with his man is poor he gets
Speaker 1: up out of his stance when he's off ball. You'll
Speaker 1: see this in the film. Instead of sitting in his
Speaker 1: defensive stance, will kind of stand upright, which just makes
Speaker 1: you take that extra second to squat down into your
Speaker 1: stance before you close out or before you go help.
Speaker 1: And as a result, that split second can cost you
Speaker 1: as a help defender. So those are just little discipline
Speaker 1: things he's gonna have to get better. As a result,
Speaker 1: they're going to have to pair him with a solid
Speaker 1: back line defender, like we talked about on the offensive
Speaker 1: end of the floor, so he's gonna have to be
Speaker 1: alongside Larry and answer Jonas valancun Is just to be
Speaker 1: even beyond the floor. I kind of prefer using him
Speaker 1: as like a wing defender in the sense that you
Speaker 1: kind of target him in in in a role where
Speaker 1: it's a little bit easier for him to make decisions.
Speaker 1: Like if he's in a primary back line role, he's
Speaker 1: gonna have to make so many help and recover decisions
Speaker 1: over the course of the game that it's gonna hurt
Speaker 1: your defense. But if he's in more of a backside
Speaker 1: help role where he's rotating as opposed to meeting people
Speaker 1: at the rim all game long. I think I'll have
Speaker 1: a little bit more success. Obviously in the long run,
Speaker 1: you'd like to see him be some version of Draymond,
Speaker 1: but there's just so far for him to go to
Speaker 1: ever get to that level that I don't think it's
Speaker 1: safe to count on it at that point. My favorite
Speaker 1: line up with this group right now and C Jim McCollum,
Speaker 1: IRV Jones, brandon Ingram, Larry Nansen, Zion. I think that
Speaker 1: gives you the flexibility to switch everything if you wanted
Speaker 1: to defensively, and then on the offensive end of the floor,
Speaker 1: you've got four guys that can knock down shots to
Speaker 1: put around Zion. You can use Zion as your primary
Speaker 1: screen and roll threat or as an isolation threat. That's
Speaker 1: the lineup that I like the most. Um either way,
Speaker 1: regardless of everything that we said, their defensive ceiling is
Speaker 1: somewhat limited because of the fact that you have to
Speaker 1: play C. J. McCollum and you have to play Zion
Speaker 1: Williamson because they're two of your three best players right
Speaker 1: So because of that, naturally you're weak defensively at two
Speaker 1: spots on the perimeter and then their two back line defenders,
Speaker 1: and Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nancer their screen and role defenders.
Speaker 1: They're both okay, neither of them are great defensively in
Speaker 1: that role. So when you've got a weak defensive front
Speaker 1: line and then you've got two weak links that need
Speaker 1: to play consistent minutes at the other four positions, there's
Speaker 1: just no universe where they're ever gonna be an elite
Speaker 1: defensive team. Like a defensive team that can lock in
Speaker 1: and get lots of stops in a row. That's just
Speaker 1: not going to be the thing that they're capable of.
Speaker 1: That puts a hard ceiling on them on that side
Speaker 1: of the floor, which inherently puts a hard ceiling on
Speaker 1: them in terms of their overall aspirations for this season.
Speaker 1: All right, let's take a look at the best case
Speaker 1: scenario for this Pelicans team. So obviously, the best case
Speaker 1: scenario is brandon Ing German Zion both take leaps as
Speaker 1: defensive players. Right, brandon Ingram gets to what he's capable
Speaker 1: of being, which is an all defense level wing, and
Speaker 1: z And Williamson just becomes a passable defensive player. Ce
Speaker 1: J McCollum kind of is what he is but maybe
Speaker 1: you can get him to buy in and commit on
Speaker 1: that end of the floor. Um herb Jones becomes a
Speaker 1: better shooter, thus being a more of a perimeter threat
Speaker 1: on the offensive end of the floor to make his
Speaker 1: value greater with what he does on the defensive end
Speaker 1: of the floor, he also needs to get a little
Speaker 1: bit better attacking closeouts. Hopefully the Zion fit on the
Speaker 1: offensive end of the floor is natural and seamless, especially
Speaker 1: with what they need as a screener and without what
Speaker 1: he could do with dribble handoff actions as the trigger
Speaker 1: man and what he can do attacking matchups, which can
Speaker 1: which can change things in a playoff series. If they
Speaker 1: play a lot less Jonas Valentiunas, play with more pace,
Speaker 1: play with more Larry Nance, a little bit more five out,
Speaker 1: a little bit more up and down the floor to
Speaker 1: play into your athleticism more. I think if all of
Speaker 1: those things come together, this is a team that could
Speaker 1: have a top five offense and a top fifteen defense. Obviously,
Speaker 1: like we talked about, their defensive ceiling is limited by
Speaker 1: playing so much Zion and c J and with what
Speaker 1: they have in terms of back line defenders. So with
Speaker 1: you with a top five offense and a top five
Speaker 1: defense or top fifteen defense. What are we getting. I
Speaker 1: think you could have a top four seed in the West,
Speaker 1: you could finish three or four there, and then you
Speaker 1: have a puncher's chance to make the conference finals. But
Speaker 1: do I don't think it's reasonable to believe that if
Speaker 1: Golden State was healthy, or if the Clippers were healthy,
Speaker 1: that they would have any chance to win those series.
Speaker 1: Is because both of those teams are every bit as
Speaker 1: good as what they can do on offense and significantly
Speaker 1: better on the defensive end of the floor. Obviously, with
Speaker 1: someone like Zion as a as a matchup problem, anything
Speaker 1: can happen. But I think this is a team that
Speaker 1: has a hard ceiling of the conference finals because of
Speaker 1: what they're limited by on the defensive end of the floor. Obviously,
Speaker 1: they're worst case scenario is injuries crop up again. Brandon
Speaker 1: Ingram C J. McCollum and Zion of all issues with
Speaker 1: injuries in the past, that lack of a defensive ceiling
Speaker 1: could end up biting them earlier than later. Um the
Speaker 1: fit with Zion could end up being clunky. Obviously I
Speaker 1: don't think it will be, but that's a possibility if
Speaker 1: it ends up struggling of Zion struggles in that role,
Speaker 1: or if he wants to be on ball more, then
Speaker 1: in that case, it ends up being something that's more
Speaker 1: like a playing team, something more like what happened last year,
Speaker 1: a team that's frisky, a team that you know could
Speaker 1: take a game or two off of a one seed
Speaker 1: or two seed, but not a team that has a
Speaker 1: real threat. That's what I view is the worst case scenario.
Speaker 1: And then most importantly, if Zion gets hurt again, then
Speaker 1: you've got to start having serious conversations about whether or
Speaker 1: not that draft pick has pained out the way that
Speaker 1: they hope, and whether or not it might be worthwhile
Speaker 1: to move off of him. So his health is another
Speaker 1: thing that I would look at in terms of the
Speaker 1: um what the worst case scenario would be. All Right, last,
Speaker 1: but not least, who's the biggest X factor on this team.
Speaker 1: I think it's Brandon Ingram. You know, in my player rankings,
Speaker 1: I put him as the twelfth best player in the world.
Speaker 1: Now that was probably a little high, and I was
Speaker 1: definitely I was definitely judging him based on what I
Speaker 1: think he can be a little bit more than what
Speaker 1: he has been based on what happened in that playoff
Speaker 1: series against Phoenix. We talked about that already in our
Speaker 1: mail bag. I'm not going to get any further into it,
Speaker 1: but there was there's a case that Brandon Ingram is
Speaker 1: not even a top twenty five player. I'm sure there
Speaker 1: were some of you who are listening that thought that
Speaker 1: someone the likes of Rudy Gobert is better, or someone
Speaker 1: the likes of, you know, Trey Young is better, or
Speaker 1: someone along those lines. Right, But let's just look at
Speaker 1: that as a spectrum. This season, one of two things
Speaker 1: is gonna happen. Brandon Ingram is going to continue to
Speaker 1: flash the playmaking that he showed in that playoff series,
Speaker 1: continue to flash the high volume efficient scoring, like I
Speaker 1: think the only average like twenty three points a game
Speaker 1: in the regular season that went up to twenty nine
Speaker 1: in the playing in twenty seven in the playoffs. What
Speaker 1: are we gonna get from Brandon Ingram this year? Are
Speaker 1: we gonna get the twenty seven point per game efficient
Speaker 1: playmaking forward that's an all defense level wing. Or are
Speaker 1: we gonna get the twenty three point per game, nagging, injury,
Speaker 1: non focused defensive player that we got for large chunks
Speaker 1: of last season, right, and that swing factor is going
Speaker 1: to be the biggest difference between this whether or not
Speaker 1: this is a Pelicans team that can make a run
Speaker 1: to the conference semis or conference finals and a team
Speaker 1: that get remains stuck in the playing game. Brandon Ingram
Speaker 1: is the X factor of this team. He does struggle
Speaker 1: to stay on the court with injuries. He is inconsistent
Speaker 1: with his buy in on the defensive end of the floor.
Speaker 1: He does have long stretches where scoring isn't as efficient
Speaker 1: or as high volume as it can be, as we
Speaker 1: saw in that playoff series. So that that is going
Speaker 1: to be the guy to watch this season as a
Speaker 1: Pelicans fan. If you see him going on an all
Speaker 1: NBA type of campaign, that's a great sign for where
Speaker 1: this franchise is setting forward, and it's a great sign
Speaker 1: for what they're capable of if they end up in
Speaker 1: a playoff series against a good team. All right, guys,
Speaker 1: that is all I have for today. We will be
Speaker 1: right back with number fourteen tomorrow. As always, I appreciate
Speaker 1: your guys a support and I'll see you then. And
Speaker 1: the volume