Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: I am sitting by with Jane Fraser, she is the
Speaker 2: CEO of City Grill and a lot of pup and James.
Speaker 1: Since we last spoke, so much has happened.
Speaker 2: And I've got to say on the ground here, despite
Speaker 2: all the uncertainty we've seen for the last several weeks,
Speaker 2: there's a lot of optimism from investors out here. What
Speaker 2: do you make of that type of forward look? Do
Speaker 2: you think that there's a lot hanging on to given
Speaker 2: that we've just heard from the Treasury Secretary and the
Speaker 2: pitch he's made to investors about the future of the
Speaker 2: country and investment in it.
Speaker 1: Now, thank you so much for having me back again.
Speaker 1: It's great to be here and to be a Milkit.
Speaker 3: Look, we're in a world where the difference between the
Speaker 3: hard data and the soft data is the greatest I've
Speaker 3: ever seen, and it's very hard for all of us
Speaker 3: to understand to get our arms around this and what
Speaker 3: does it mean? And I think we just got to
Speaker 3: recognize that this will takes some time to play out.
Speaker 1: On the one hand, we've got.
Speaker 3: Investors who had quite the round trip in the last
Speaker 3: few weeks, but When we look at our corporate clients
Speaker 3: or our consumer clients, sentiment is weaker, but spending is strong.
Speaker 1: With the consumer still it's holding up.
Speaker 3: Some of that is the pull forward of spending the
Speaker 3: same from corporates ahead of tariffs. But we're keeping a
Speaker 3: very close eye on what will happen with unemployment, what's
Speaker 3: going to happen with inflation. Obviously, what's going to happen
Speaker 3: with the actual tariffs will be maybe ten percent, will
Speaker 3: they be twenty five percent?
Speaker 1: Will they be more? That uncertainty. It will get clarified.
Speaker 1: We will know more. We'll know more about the tax field,
Speaker 1: we'll know more about.
Speaker 3: Deregulation, but it's going to take some time for the
Speaker 3: hard and soft data to converge and that we know
Speaker 3: which scenario we should be acting upon.
Speaker 1: Well, to that end, you.
Speaker 2: Said earlier today on a panel that a lot of
Speaker 2: your clients are in this way and seeing mode. So
Speaker 2: what is your advice bring us into the board rooms?
Speaker 2: What are they waiting to see and what is your message?
Speaker 2: So with clients, as.
Speaker 3: A couple of things that are going on, one more tactically.
Speaker 1: Which is preparing for headwinds.
Speaker 3: And remember we're serving multinational clients and multinational institutions and
Speaker 3: governments around the world.
Speaker 1: So they are.
Speaker 3: Strengthening balance sheets if they feel the need to take
Speaker 3: advantage of that, they're pulling forward inventory, they're pausing some
Speaker 3: of their investments, spend catechs. There's still activity, but there's
Speaker 3: definitely the weight in seeing and preparation. Then you have
Speaker 3: all the work that is going on where we're having
Speaker 3: heavy client engagement on how should I be rethinking about
Speaker 3: my supply chains, what should I be thinking about my
Speaker 3: hedging and financing? And then on the top level, what
Speaker 3: does it mean from the strategic advice. So the level
Speaker 3: of engagement everywhere around the world is apsolutely tremendous. It's
Speaker 3: about scenarios right now. It will turn into action further
Speaker 3: down the year.
Speaker 1: Now you're the.
Speaker 2: Most mobile of US banks, so you see what's happening
Speaker 2: on the ground in the Middle East and Asia and.
Speaker 1: Europe and Latin America.
Speaker 2: What do you think international investors feel about their relationship
Speaker 2: to the United States today? Are the concern that our
Speaker 2: status as a reliable trading partner is going to step
Speaker 2: around given all.
Speaker 4: The change, There is an immediate reaction to the speed,
Speaker 4: the pace, the nature of the changes that have been announced,
Speaker 4: and that causes a certain amount of emotion from people.
Speaker 4: But when you step back and you look at the
Speaker 4: economic advantages of America that we felt so positive about
Speaker 4: in January are still there today.
Speaker 1: Labor mobility, the threads.
Speaker 3: And depth of our capital market never bet against the
Speaker 3: American entrepreneur.
Speaker 1: You know, those still main strong.
Speaker 3: What I do hear more from our international clients is
Speaker 3: they expect a more multipolar world to get accelerated. So
Speaker 3: they're starting to think through what are some of the
Speaker 3: other relationships they need to be developing, what are some
Speaker 3: of the challenges that they're going to be facing. But
Speaker 3: at the end of the day, a multipolar world is
Speaker 3: a win win, It's not a zero sum gag. And
Speaker 3: I think both are beginning to understand there are not
Speaker 3: as many alternatives.
Speaker 1: To the US as the initial thought would be.
Speaker 3: And the second piece is there's also opportunity and there's
Speaker 3: a win win out there.
Speaker 2: So one place you're not seeing the win win in particular,
Speaker 2: and you said this on your earnings call with investors,
Speaker 2: actually that your client base is not as affective.
Speaker 1: But smaller and mid sized companies could get pummeled as
Speaker 1: the word you use in this kind of environment.
Speaker 2: What kind of risk is there to mainstream if these
Speaker 2: trade negotiations aren't sorted.
Speaker 1: Out that I think.
Speaker 3: I think it's not just the trade. We want to
Speaker 3: see the trade. We want to see the tax bill
Speaker 3: and what that will be. And then also deregulation because
Speaker 3: as secondary Vesson has pointed out, deregulation has really impeded
Speaker 3: main street as well.
Speaker 1: We've seen it as above and three. The concern as
Speaker 1: a large.
Speaker 3: Bank was around what does it mean for the consumer?
Speaker 3: What did it mean for farmers? What did it mean
Speaker 3: for small businesses? Because they have what had a trickle
Speaker 3: down impact of too much regulation. So some of that
Speaker 3: undoing of things that have been overdone is very important
Speaker 3: for main street because they don't have the same flexibility
Speaker 3: and diversity a business model that the larger corporates do.
Speaker 1: But do they have neuro term problems like inflation that could.
Speaker 2: Be on the heels of a lot of these Terearff
Speaker 2: talks and their access to capital and being different than
Speaker 2: those larger firms have.
Speaker 3: Yeah, as I talked about, I do think the small
Speaker 3: businesses and those involved in sectors of affected by the
Speaker 3: price increases by the chariffs by supply chain disruptions, just
Speaker 3: because the magnitude of changes that could be coming will
Speaker 3: have an impact on them. And you know, that's I
Speaker 3: think where some of the disruption and the pain from
Speaker 3: this we felt, first we need to be very mindful
Speaker 3: of what are we going to do.
Speaker 1: To help support them very specifically.
Speaker 2: Also, you were recently in Mexico with Mexico's President Kadia Shambaan.
Speaker 1: How did that meaning goal? What most strategy to deal
Speaker 1: with the trade negotiations with the United States.
Speaker 3: I do think that the Mexican presidency is doing a
Speaker 3: very very good job.
Speaker 1: She's a very smart, thoughtful person.
Speaker 3: She's looking at stepping back, taking letting some of the
Speaker 3: noise side down, very clear on what are Mexico's priorities.
Speaker 1: The US is very important to Mexico.
Speaker 3: She's very aware of that, but we'll also be looking
Speaker 3: at the other places to put a few more eggs,
Speaker 3: so not all the eggs are in the Mexican cam basket,
Speaker 3: and strengthening relationships in South America and the life as well.
Speaker 2: So all in on, let's take a big step back
Speaker 2: to look at the macro.
Speaker 1: Environment that's been created in the wake of what's gone on.
Speaker 1: A lot of people have a lot of.
Speaker 2: Concerns around inflation and a weakening economy at the same time,
Speaker 2: do you agree with President Trump that the FED should
Speaker 2: cut interest rates or do you believe that it would
Speaker 2: be imputed to do it at this time when inflation
Speaker 2: expectations are higher.
Speaker 3: It's very hard for the FED right now because of
Speaker 3: this disconnect between hard data and soft data, and.
Speaker 1: The heart data holding up well, the.
Speaker 3: Sentiment data is clearly impacted, and until there is more clarity,
Speaker 3: it will be hard to know. If it's a ten
Speaker 3: percent tariff easier to absorb, if it's twenty five percent
Speaker 3: or higher, then that will have more material ramifications. So
Speaker 3: getting clarity on the trade deals and agreements that will
Speaker 3: come through, will know more about taxes. In the summer,
Speaker 3: we're starting to see some of the benefits of deregulation occurring.
Speaker 3: All of this will play in, but right now, the
Speaker 3: fit's in a tough spot.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: I want to turn to city groups specifically. You're in,
Speaker 2: let's say the later stages now of a historic turnaround.
Speaker 1: You had a lot of work on your plate in
Speaker 1: the first couple of years. Next year is year five.
Speaker 1: Now this year you have clearly.
Speaker 2: Made progress and getting closer to your return on tengible
Speaker 2: equity target of ten to eleven percent.
Speaker 1: By next year. Do you stand firm in that target.
Speaker 2: Or are there risks to achieving it or do you
Speaker 2: believe that it could actually be hit sooner than you
Speaker 2: initially expect.
Speaker 3: Now we stand firm with the tarking. I am very
Speaker 3: glad that we have the strategy in place and it's working.
Speaker 3: The good progress there. The organization we did last year
Speaker 3: has also played benefits making us more agile.
Speaker 1: We have a fantastic management team.
Speaker 3: I'm really proud of the leaders that we have at
Speaker 3: the firm, and I'm also glad that that's all in
Speaker 3: place so that we can be on in the front
Speaker 3: foot and leaning into the different challenges and opportunities that
Speaker 3: this environment means for our clients, and we can be
Speaker 3: that port in the storm, strong capital, strong, balance sheet,
Speaker 3: well reserved. So I am pretty determined as I look
Speaker 3: to the future that we will play the role that
Speaker 3: city should be and lean into this environment to be
Speaker 3: there for our clients.
Speaker 1: I think when you look.
Speaker 2: Across Wall Street, one major concern is that given the deals,
Speaker 2: environment has not played out as anyone has expected the commitment.
Speaker 2: Not just a city group, but many large banks have
Speaker 2: to keeping all of those bankers and force.
Speaker 1: How do you feel about this?
Speaker 2: Do you believe that there's a point this year that
Speaker 2: you would have to make reductions given what the environment
Speaker 2: looks like.
Speaker 1: I think we have.
Speaker 3: A diversified business model, so that's very helpful. We saw
Speaker 3: that in the first quarter, real strength across the street
Speaker 3: in the markets, businesses that help counter a let's call
Speaker 3: it a tech environment in the IPO some of the
Speaker 3: leverage finance marketing. So those diversified business models are very
Speaker 3: helpful for us. I do feel the environment does play
Speaker 3: to city strains.
Speaker 1: We are everywhere.
Speaker 3: Around the world and all the clients are engaging us
Speaker 3: on what should they be thinking about doing on their
Speaker 3: supply chains. We're helping them in India, in Japan and
Speaker 3: the Middle East in Africa and beginning to think through
Speaker 3: what changes that they need to be making and getting
Speaker 3: prepared for that.
Speaker 1: At the same time, the pipeline in deals is growing.
Speaker 1: It's been quite active. I've been surprised by how active
Speaker 1: it has.
Speaker 3: Been the last few weeks, but the pipeline has been
Speaker 3: growing pretty steadily.
Speaker 1: So clients will be ready to act once there is certainty.
Speaker 1: We don't know.
Speaker 3: If it's a very bad economic environment, that would be
Speaker 3: more restructuring. If it's a good economic environment, it will
Speaker 3: be game on again.
Speaker 2: Jane, one more question for you, because next year is
Speaker 2: your five in your tenure and you can stay CEO
Speaker 2: for a long time. We know all of your rivals
Speaker 2: Sigitation certainly have.
Speaker 1: But you've also added a lot of significant senior talent
Speaker 1: around you.
Speaker 2: How is City Group thinking about succession planning at this
Speaker 2: point in time.
Speaker 3: First of all, we're really proud of the bench of
Speaker 3: talent that we have, both from within the firm and
Speaker 3: some of.
Speaker 1: The people that we have brought to the firm, and we're.
Speaker 3: A team that is focused on delivering the strategy that
Speaker 3: we've put in place. We see such huge potential and
Speaker 3: we can feel the momentum behind us.
Speaker 1: We can feel the clients wanting us to succeed, and
Speaker 1: that's what we're focused.
Speaker 3: On right now, and I am looking forward to being
Speaker 3: CEO for a long time.
Speaker 2: Jane, thank you so much for joining us here and
Speaker 2: said we're looking forward to see how the year plays
Speaker 2: out for you. Of course, that is Jane Fraser, the
Speaker 2: CEO of City Group,