Speaker 1: Welcome to Before Breakfast, a production of iHeartRadio. Good Morning,
Speaker 1: This is Laura. Welcome to the Before Breakfast podcast. Today's
Speaker 1: tip is to know the odds. Having a good sense
Speaker 1: of how likely something is can help you make better
Speaker 1: choices and might also be reassuring if you tend to
Speaker 1: fixate on unlikely events. A few months ago, I flew
Speaker 1: to Japan for spring break with my sixteen year old son.
Speaker 1: We had a great time there, but of course we
Speaker 1: had to get there. Flying always makes me nervous. In particular,
Speaker 1: I am nervous about flights getting canceled or being horribly delayed.
Speaker 1: But the good news is that I had been tracking
Speaker 1: this particular flight for a while and I saw that
Speaker 1: it almost most always left on time. There were only
Speaker 1: a few times when it had been delayed, and canceling
Speaker 1: was extremely unlikely. This was good to know. Now you
Speaker 1: can always get unlucky. Longtime listeners might recall my attempts
Speaker 1: to get to Edinburgh a few years ago when United
Speaker 1: canceled two days worth of flights in a row. But
Speaker 1: when you see the on time record for a flight
Speaker 1: and it is good, you can feel better about your
Speaker 1: upcoming travel. Knowing the odds can be helpful in all
Speaker 1: sorts of circumstances. For instance, I know a lot of
Speaker 1: my listeners save and invest for retirement. I find it
Speaker 1: helpful to know that in the US market corrections of
Speaker 1: ten percent are quite common. If that happens, it is
Speaker 1: truly no big deal and nothing to panic over. Twenty
Speaker 1: percent drops are less common, but also still not uncommon.
Speaker 1: They happen one to two times every five years on average. Again,
Speaker 1: no need to get upset about it. Drops of twenty
Speaker 1: five percent or more are much less common. There have
Speaker 1: only been a handful of drops of thirty percent or
Speaker 1: more over the past several decades. Now, that doesn't mean
Speaker 1: it won't happen and that the market won't be sideways
Speaker 1: for a while. But when you know the odds, you
Speaker 1: can see that the average dip of ten to twenty
Speaker 1: percent doesn't turn into a full scale sell off. You
Speaker 1: can sit tight and you don't need to think a
Speaker 1: much about it. You might even find it helpful to
Speaker 1: know weather percentages. If you are planning an outdoor wedding,
Speaker 1: it's good to have a plan for rain, but you
Speaker 1: can also take comfort if you are having the event
Speaker 1: somewhere where it tends to only rain, let's say three
Speaker 1: days a month during the month you are having the event. Yes,
Speaker 1: make a backup plan, but the odds are good that
Speaker 1: you won't have to use it. Knowing the odds can
Speaker 1: be reassuring, but it can also help you make more
Speaker 1: informed choices. If I'm trying to get to an event
Speaker 1: and I'm looking at flights that leave close to the
Speaker 1: same time, it's helpful to know. If one has an
Speaker 1: on time percentage of ninety percent and the other is
Speaker 1: more like seventy five percent, probably best to go with
Speaker 1: the ninety percent one. There aren't always odds available, but
Speaker 1: in many cases there are. Historic flight data is often
Speaker 1: available if you search. One of the fascinating things about
Speaker 1: modern life is that there are prediction markets, and you
Speaker 1: can look at those. You can also seek out any
Speaker 1: historical data you can find, or talk to people who've
Speaker 1: done something recently. Anecdotes aren't data, of course, but sometimes
Speaker 1: they are helpful. If your neighbor has had bad luck
Speaker 1: with a certain car and then you look it up
Speaker 1: and see that can numer reports reads it as likely
Speaker 1: to have problems, well, that is good to know. Maybe
Speaker 1: you can look into other brands and save yourself some trouble.
Speaker 1: In the meantime, This is Laura. Thanks for listening, and
Speaker 1: here's to making the most of our time. Thanks for
Speaker 1: listening to Before Breakfast. If you've got questions, ideas, or feedback,
Speaker 1: you can reach me at Laura at Laura vandercam dot com.
Speaker 1: Before Breakfast is a production of iHeartMedia. For more podcasts
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Speaker 1: wherever you listen to your favorite shows.