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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bats. We

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Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the

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Speaker 1: betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the

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Speaker 1: wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am

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Speaker 1: joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my

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Speaker 1: compadre professional better sign in Hunter, Hello, Simon, Chad.

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Speaker 2: I know a lot of our fans as say their

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Speaker 2: favorite time of year is that, you know, end of May,

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Speaker 2: early June, right, there's all the sports, horse racing, golf, everything,

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Speaker 2: all the playoffs are there. For me, this is it.

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Speaker 2: I'm a baseball guy. This has been an incredible week

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Speaker 2: of baseball.

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Speaker 3: The last three days honestly will have been incredible.

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Speaker 2: And and I'm watching hockey preseason, little NBA preseason football

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Speaker 2: is on obviously as well, and I'm just like, man,

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Speaker 2: I think this is my this is my time of

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Speaker 2: year for sports.

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Speaker 3: I just love this whole spot.

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Speaker 2: And uh yeah, just really again diving in the lines

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Speaker 2: this week. I'm just appreciative of life and that what

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Speaker 2: we get to do for a life. And yeah, hopefully

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Speaker 2: these these games are some winners for us.

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Speaker 1: Dude, I'm not gonna lie to it. It is. I

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Speaker 1: feel so lucky not to get sappy that we get

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Speaker 1: to do this show and this is part of our

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Speaker 1: daily process. And when I woke up this morning, I'm like,

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Speaker 1: all right, I get to talk about betting on football.

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Speaker 1: And the reason I'm even thinking about it is because

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Speaker 1: you know, this is our Thursday we four episode. We're

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Speaker 1: going to narrow down our options on our quest to

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Speaker 1: find five picks we agree on for the week. Reminder

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Speaker 1: subscribe Sharper Square on YouTube, able posts, Spotify. But the

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Speaker 1: reason I say this is because I'm in the city

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Speaker 1: right now. I'm at my mother in law's apartment, recording

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Speaker 1: live from my mother in law's apartment. I will tell

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Speaker 1: you I was at a party last night in the

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Speaker 1: city in one of those media you know, shin digs.

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Speaker 1: Lots of lots of really impressive, powerful folks, and a

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Speaker 1: bunch of people who happened to listen to and watch

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Speaker 1: the show. We're asking me about some of the picks

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Speaker 1: from Tuesday show. And then when I ran down, I

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Speaker 1: was talking to one guy I'm running down like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm on Detroit, Yeah, I'm on the Chargers, Yeah I'm

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Speaker 1: on the Niners.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I put a little taste, not a full unit, but

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Speaker 1: a little taste on the bills. I started to get really,

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Speaker 1: really nervous, and it honestly feels like, now that we're

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Speaker 1: forty hours beyond that show, we are on the opposite

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Speaker 1: side of all the professional conventional wisdom. I won't say

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Speaker 1: professional betters, but certainly conventional wisdom. So simon, let's get

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Speaker 1: into this thing. And I'll say this right now with

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Speaker 1: joy in my heart. Back by popular demand from all

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Speaker 1: the old heads who have been tweeting at us and

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Speaker 1: saying in the YouTube comments, it's time for sharp calls.

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Speaker 2: I have to answer this phot all right, Rain, Rain

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Speaker 2: telephone range.

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Speaker 3: Somebody said, maybe want you do lead. Yeah, let's tie

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Speaker 3: right into the games they love with us sharp call.

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Speaker 2: Right off the top, Tampa. I think I knew that

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Speaker 2: was an professional side. Honestly, I'm shocked I haven't gotten

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Speaker 2: the three. I really did think that the three and

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Speaker 2: a half was gonna be a gift and it was

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Speaker 2: gonna disappear and just go back to three with the

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Speaker 2: injuries the Eagles have and the Tampa getting guys back.

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Speaker 3: But luckily we're on the professional side there.

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Speaker 2: The pros actually love Carolina, which I know is game

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Speaker 2: we haven't talked much about.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying to avoid it.

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Speaker 1: I feel.

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Speaker 2: I got away with it last week in Carolina. I

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Speaker 2: wanted to be on the Patriots number is egregious. I'm

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Speaker 2: just avoiding it. I know a lot of pros though,

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Speaker 2: like that Panthers side Detroit game we're on.

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Speaker 3: Pros love it, like every guy I talked who loved

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Speaker 3: it eight and a half.

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Speaker 2: They've been taking it at nine, taken at nine and

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Speaker 2: a half, so I think our view of it getting

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Speaker 2: under ten. That was the key Chiefs and no game

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Speaker 2: We're gonna dive into. The pros love Cowboys, the pros

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Speaker 2: love same side we're on. And you know, last, last,

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Speaker 2: but not least, that Rams game shocking. I thought it

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Speaker 2: was going to be all pros on the cold side.

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Speaker 2: A lot of pros are joining us on that Rams side,

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Speaker 2: so interesting.

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Speaker 3: A lot of love for our picks, what they hate

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Speaker 3: for us.

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Speaker 2: Talked a lot of pros that like the Commanders, a

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Speaker 2: lot of guys that love the Saints, a lot of

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Speaker 2: guys that love the Seahawks, and a lot of guys

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Speaker 2: that really really love that matchup for that Jets team.

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Speaker 2: I just can't get there. So yeah, interesting back and forth.

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Speaker 2: A lot of professionals week about different sides.

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Speaker 3: But I knew they would be on the for sure

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Speaker 3: for the Chiefs and the Bucks.

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Speaker 2: The other games honestly surprised me just because they are

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Speaker 2: such Chalky favorites. So yeah, excited to dive into this

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Speaker 2: week and all these lines and kind of get into

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Speaker 2: these ones.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well, there's one game they didn't mention, which

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Speaker 1: I thought for sure you would say that they're on

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Speaker 1: the opposite side of us, and we're going to talk

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Speaker 1: about that in a minute, But first, let's talk about

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Speaker 1: Thursday night just quickly, because you mentioned they're on Seattle,

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Speaker 1: and we've liked Arizona since Sunday night. We were waiting

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Speaker 1: for Arizona to get to plus numbers, and it did

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday. They were at minus one and a half.

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Speaker 1: Now they're at plus one and a half. I want

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Speaker 1: to pull the trigger on Arizona. I can't figure out

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Speaker 1: why I'm not, And it's like, is it because I

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Speaker 1: don't trust Kyler Murray? Help me get over the hump here.

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Speaker 1: My model is completely frat flashing green for the Cardinals.

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Speaker 3: Just gus.

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Speaker 2: Historically, the Seahawks have won here it doesn't matter who

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Speaker 2: their quarterback has been, the coach has been, what their

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Speaker 2: defense has been. For some reason, the Seahawks have owned

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Speaker 2: the Cardinals in this matchup, and I think your hesitation

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Speaker 2: for both of us is just we think the Seahawks

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Speaker 2: are a better team right now and health does matter. Sure,

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Speaker 2: weeks doesn't matter, but I'm like you, I can't avoid it.

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Speaker 2: It's Kyler Murray as a dog. I've said it years ago.

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Speaker 2: I don't care no matter what. I take him as

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Speaker 2: a dog, even when he has a bad matchup and

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Speaker 2: his offensive lines banged up and everything.

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Speaker 3: It's just all negative.

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Speaker 2: And I hate it because it's making me like Arizon anymore.

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Speaker 2: But I'm not going to put in our contest. I

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Speaker 2: know that for sure. But I'm still on the same side.

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Speaker 2: I was looking for ways to get there on Seahawks

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Speaker 2: and I just can't can't get there right now with

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Speaker 2: this team that last year, I mean last week, I

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Speaker 2: should say we were on for Survivor and it was

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Speaker 2: the dream scenario. But Chad knows like anytime a team

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Speaker 2: wins by thirty and now they're facing a team on

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Speaker 2: a short week on the road, it's just historically isn't

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Speaker 2: a good spot. So the trends don't love the Seahawks either.

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Speaker 2: The only trends that like the Seahawks is simply their

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Speaker 2: matchup with the Cardinals. So yeah, we can keep it moving.

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Speaker 2: Not a game on a fort and I am on

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Speaker 2: the Cardinals. But there's no way I could talk myself

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Speaker 2: and I putting this in the contest.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to walk away from for one sec

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Speaker 1: because I just want to get to why would I

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Speaker 1: like the Seahawks or the Cardinals better? On the field, Like,

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks are so much more dominant right now, They're

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Speaker 1: amazing defensively. I'm still not quite sold on Sam Donald.

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Speaker 1: He hasn't necessarily had to win them a game the

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Speaker 1: way their defense and running game has been winning them

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Speaker 1: a game, you know, against the Steelers, and then last

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Speaker 1: week was just sort of a trouncing. Is that why?

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Speaker 1: Like what am I liking on the field here? I

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Speaker 1: have no read of it.

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Speaker 2: I think the Cardinals are well coach and they play hard,

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Speaker 2: like their defense with all their injuries, they've played really hard,

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Speaker 2: played really well.

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Speaker 3: Last week.

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Speaker 2: To me, I think our hesitation, just as Kyler. That's

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Speaker 2: to me, is this issue we're just we don't trust him.

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Speaker 2: That's why I just bet him as a dog where

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Speaker 2: it's like I don't try to overthink it.

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Speaker 3: He covers as a dog. As a favorite, he is

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Speaker 3: just atrocious.

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Speaker 2: So he's a dog. This is usually the games he

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Speaker 2: the cup of games he covers, so all right.

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Speaker 1: One of the games that I'm surprised the wise guys

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Speaker 1: didn't bring up in the conversation here is the La

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Speaker 1: Chargers are now six and a half point favorites against

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Speaker 1: the Giants. This took a lot of our attention on Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: too much, honestly, because while I was loving their Chargers

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Speaker 1: at six, it moved to six and a half before

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Speaker 1: I could grab it while we were talking about it

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Speaker 1: on the show, and it remained the pick that I love.

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Speaker 1: Chad loves the Chargers. I got it at six and

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Speaker 1: a half. It's steady at six and a half. As

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Speaker 1: we were talking, it was announced that Jackson Dart was

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Speaker 1: going to take over for Russell Wilson. Look, there is

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Speaker 1: a lot of love right now for the Giants defensive

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Speaker 1: line and what they were able to do against Patrick

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Speaker 1: Mahomes and make him uncomfortable, and the real failings for

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Speaker 1: the Giants were their inability on offense to execute take

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Speaker 1: advantage of situations score points. My feeling on this is

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Speaker 1: the whole Jackson Dart thing is a sort of is

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Speaker 1: a classic media parroting the organization's talking points. Like you

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Speaker 1: listen to collins Worth talk about Chris collins Worth talk

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Speaker 1: about Jackson Dart on Sunday Night, and you'd think he

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Speaker 1: had the swagger and talent of Joe Namath right the

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Speaker 1: way that they just sort of way he walks in

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Speaker 1: and gets the guys together and he works so hard

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Speaker 1: and you know his athletic ability. Is this not a

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Speaker 1: guy who was like who snuck into the bottom of

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Speaker 1: the first round to a team that passed on him

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Speaker 1: at the top of the draft. Like, is the expectations

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Speaker 1: that the Chargers do not know how to defend against

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Speaker 1: a quarterback who can run like I don't know, Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: Is the expectations the Giants pat Ross will just dominate

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Speaker 1: the Chargers injured offensive line. What are the wise guys

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Speaker 1: if they are betting on the Giants and you didn't

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Speaker 1: mention them. Seeing that should make me uncomfortable because I

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Speaker 1: still love this pick.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say to Collinsworth.

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Speaker 2: He's a man in his seventies or I don't know

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Speaker 2: if he's in his eighties, but I think he's in

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Speaker 2: the seventies.

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Speaker 1: And he's not in his eighties. Guy, come on, he's.

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Speaker 3: Probably an an edible.

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Speaker 1: So no, he's not.

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Speaker 3: I think he is man.

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Speaker 2: And some of the stuff he says, you're just like,

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Speaker 2: there's no way this guy is sober.

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Speaker 3: That's why I think a lot of people in sports

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Speaker 3: come on.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, I just Dart is the unknown, so maybe

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Speaker 2: that's why people love him. But for me in this game, like,

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna support you, even though back to back weeks

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Speaker 2: you've taken the same team against the Giants, and I

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Speaker 2: get your logic and your reasoning.

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Speaker 3: It really was.

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Speaker 2: Faiting this bad team against superior talent, and that's what

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Speaker 2: the Chargers are. They're superior talent against a bad team

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Speaker 2: that's you know, not properly coach. The fear here. The

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Speaker 2: reason pros aren't talking about this one is just because

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Speaker 2: we don't know what we're gonna get. Dart could come

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Speaker 2: out and with his legs or whatever, have a good game,

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Speaker 2: even though he's not that good, right because there's no tape,

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Speaker 2: it's just gonna be a very simplified offense for him

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Speaker 2: to run. But I'm I'm still on your side, even

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Speaker 2: though the pros are talking, I'm still on your charger side.

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Speaker 2: There's still sixes out there. You can grab the sixes.

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Speaker 2: I mean hard rocks at six here in Jersey. I

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Speaker 2: know that you've got six and a half. They've been

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Speaker 2: fluctuating all day. So there's clear professional money on the

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Speaker 2: Giants side, while the public is they're like us, They're

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Speaker 2: gonna be heavy on the Chargers, all the teasers, every

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Speaker 2: money line parlay. I know people are talking about them

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Speaker 2: surf a survivor. So yeah, this to me is, don't

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Speaker 2: ever think it. It's harrball that defense against a rookie

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Speaker 2: quarterback in his first start.

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Speaker 3: It's Herbert against a bad defense.

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Speaker 2: And I think I saw some crazy stat basically when

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Speaker 2: he's a favorite above three and a half, Herbert, I

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Speaker 2: think he's eleven and zer against the spread.

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Speaker 3: So it's it's like I got talked about it. He

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Speaker 3: just beats up on bad teams.

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Speaker 2: That's what Herbert's whole career, even when he's had horrible coaching,

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Speaker 2: you get him against a bad defense, he beats him up.

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Speaker 3: So I'll keep supporting your brother.

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Speaker 2: If we get this one in at five and a half,

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Speaker 2: six and a half in our contest, either number, I

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Speaker 2: probably wouldn't mind put it in. My only fear is

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Speaker 2: Dart having that first start miracle pulling a rabbit out

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Speaker 2: of his ass kind of game where it's like I

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Speaker 2: can't believe it, me and you. By the end of

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Speaker 2: the day, it'll be like I can't believe he somehow

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Speaker 2: covered it, just because I don't know they move the

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Speaker 2: ball against his Chargers team, if they just double neighbors,

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Speaker 2: I just don't know how they do it.

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Speaker 3: So excited to see what they're gonna do read option.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna do some something funky with him and his

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Speaker 2: running because this comp I know it sounds weird. His

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Speaker 2: comp coming out was Jalen Hurts, the way he runs

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Speaker 2: with the ball, how tough he is his throw his

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Speaker 2: throwing styles.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, we'll see it's It's.

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Speaker 2: Gonna be definitely a game that went from being Corner

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Speaker 2: TV through one of my more main four games.

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Speaker 3: Most likely.

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Speaker 1: Oh brother, this is totally going in the four box,

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Speaker 1: one hundred percent going in the four box. I can't

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Speaker 1: I can't wait for this game. I'm probably gonna be

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Speaker 1: sick to my stomach watching this whole game because I

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Speaker 1: also hate those one pm games from the Meadowlands. It's

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Speaker 1: like you're watching it, you know, in a house of worship.

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Speaker 1: It's so freaking quiet early in those games, it feels

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Speaker 1: like everybody is just waking up. So, yeah, this is

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Speaker 1: a we're taking a stand. We've seen a lot of

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Speaker 1: changes the past couple of years. We've seen favorites covering

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Speaker 1: more and more and more, good teams beating bad teams,

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Speaker 1: bad quarterbacks, not being able to execute, bad coaches, not

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Speaker 1: being able to get their teams paired really good coaches.

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Speaker 1: This is a coaching matchup mismatch. This is a quarterback mismatch.

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Speaker 1: The Chargers defense as a whole, I think is better

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Speaker 1: than the Giants defense, even though their defensive line is elite.

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Speaker 1: Last week was the game the Browns and the Packers

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Speaker 1: were like, if the Browns don't cover his eight and

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Speaker 1: a half point underdogs with an elite defense, we're never

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Speaker 1: betting underdogs at home in this spot again. But I

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Speaker 1: do think this is season we're still seeing a trend

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Speaker 1: where you want to bet the better team. I know

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Speaker 1: it's dangerous. I still like the Chargers, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay.

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Speaker 1: Let's get back to a more traditional professional position. Tampa

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Speaker 1: Bay three and a half point underdog. You mentioned it.

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Speaker 1: The wise guys love it. This was Simon says. Look,

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Speaker 1: the Bucks are riddled with injuries on the offensive line.

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Speaker 1: They don't have Mike Evans, but reports our Tristan Wurfs

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Speaker 1: may play at left tackle for the Bucks. Chris Godwin

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Speaker 1: maybe back for the Bucks from that injury. A Mecca

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Speaker 1: Buka just seems to get better literally every snap. I

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Speaker 1: like this because I think the Box and Baker are

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Speaker 1: just perpetually undervalued, and the Eagles are perpetually overvalued, so

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Speaker 1: there's always going to be a little bit of value.

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Speaker 1: I don't know the matchups. Eagles have injuries too, but

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Speaker 1: I think you're just getting a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: better value here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I disagree somewhat with that stare.

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Speaker 2: I think that the Eagles were undervalued after their Week

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Speaker 2: one performance against Dallas rightly so should have lost that game,

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Speaker 2: and since then covered two straight and they're another team

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Speaker 2: that we sick. They could easily be zero to three,

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Speaker 2: but now the public is totally coming around on them,

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Speaker 2: and they've bet this number up. So this is type

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Speaker 2: game where it feels two and a half wouldn't be

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Speaker 2: that confidence. It's all about the number here with this

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Speaker 2: Bucks team and Baker because it is a bad spot

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Speaker 2: for Baker right, He's covered three straight games with three

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Speaker 2: straight fourth quarter comebacks that how lo can he keep

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Speaker 2: this up?

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Speaker 3: Right?

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Speaker 2: It's like there's only so many times you can ask

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Speaker 2: him to make those type of game winning drives.

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Speaker 3: But my view of it is just this is the

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Speaker 3: type of game that the Bucks do.

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Speaker 2: Play close, right, a really talented team that they have

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Speaker 2: the guys that can stop.

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Speaker 3: The toush push. This is one of the few teams.

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Speaker 2: They got a guy like Viaave that can stop this

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Speaker 2: type of play, and that's a big deal when that

327
00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:25,920
Speaker 2: Eagles team relies so heavy on him for a certain spots. So, yeah,

328
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Speaker 2: could the Eagles attack this secondary with hurts and you know,

329
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Speaker 2: really open this game up for sure, But he's gonna

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Speaker 2: have to do it the holes. They're gonna sell out,

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Speaker 2: just like every other team's been doing it so far,

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Speaker 2: stopping Barkley, and they're the perfect team to do. They

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00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:41,160
Speaker 2: just don't allow one hundred yard rushers, So bad matchup

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Speaker 2: for the Eagles team. They have their own injuries, right,

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Speaker 2: they might be down their number two, number three cornerbacks,

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Speaker 2: both linebackers. I mean John Campbell came in today with

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Speaker 2: a sleeve on his arm, and I believe I forget

338
00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:57,600
Speaker 2: who else someone had to brace on their knee. Might

339
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Speaker 2: have been Zach Brown like the other linebacker to bracing

340
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Speaker 2: his The Eagles are banged up like they just went

341
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Speaker 2: through a battle. So they're just just like the Bucks.

342
00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:07,240
Speaker 2: They're they're equally banged up and that as healthy. So

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Speaker 2: it's shocking how much love the public hast for the

344
00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:14,360
Speaker 2: Eagles team. Where I think the game temperature field tempts

345
00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:17,280
Speaker 2: has to be like one hundred and five. And this

346
00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:19,280
Speaker 2: historically has just been a bad spot for the Eagles.

347
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Speaker 2: Eagles haven't lost in a year the last time they lost.

348
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Speaker 2: What is this Bucks team? And you see it.

349
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Speaker 3: With Baker, he's not the best as a favorite.

350
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Speaker 2: He's kind of like Kyler in this sense that as

351
00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,400
Speaker 2: a dog, especially since he's been the Buccaneers, he's been

352
00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:34,160
Speaker 2: an auto play where it's like he just even when

353
00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:36,400
Speaker 2: he loses those games as a dog, he always keeps

354
00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:39,240
Speaker 2: them close. Get like the back door is always open,

355
00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:42,200
Speaker 2: so to me with the hook three and a half.

356
00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:44,800
Speaker 2: I can't avoid it. Love the numbers so much, love

357
00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:47,960
Speaker 2: love this match for Baker and god if God we

358
00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:50,320
Speaker 2: could come back, I'm almost positive he's gonna come back

359
00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:53,080
Speaker 2: with worth. That's gonna be so huge having him in

360
00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:55,560
Speaker 2: a book on the outside, Like you just you need

361
00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:57,360
Speaker 2: someone that Quina and Mitric will focus on. Then you're

362
00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:00,480
Speaker 2: gonna beat the Eagles without second receiver. That's truly the

363
00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:03,000
Speaker 2: biggest weakness of this defense that they just cannot figure out.

364
00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:05,639
Speaker 2: Now you're bringing guys up in the practice squad to

365
00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:08,800
Speaker 2: maybe pick that position to take on Chris Godwin. So yeah,

366
00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:10,919
Speaker 2: I love this matchup. Love the matchup as well for

367
00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:13,639
Speaker 2: Bucky Irvy coming out of that backfield. So uh to me,

368
00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:16,080
Speaker 2: Nick the line two and a half, it's still three

369
00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:18,679
Speaker 2: and a half called some key numbers here. I just

370
00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,080
Speaker 2: once again, if it's three and a half for our contest,

371
00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:22,800
Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna force try the ticket Sunday.

372
00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:24,720
Speaker 3: I just have heavily bet this one. I really love

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Speaker 3: this number.

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Speaker 1: I don't think you're going to have to force me.

375
00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:29,760
Speaker 1: I've already bet. I beted at the worst number. I

376
00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:32,800
Speaker 1: bet it at three, So I don't feel like there's

377
00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:35,760
Speaker 1: gonna be any arm twisting on this where we've talked

378
00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:38,360
Speaker 1: about the Chargers, that was my Chad loves pick. We've

379
00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:41,760
Speaker 1: talked about the Bucks, that was Simon says, I want

380
00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:43,879
Speaker 1: to bring up Washington. We owe people of brass balls,

381
00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:45,879
Speaker 1: and you and I haven't discussed our brass balls and

382
00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:47,280
Speaker 1: our rock and hard play, so it's going to be

383
00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:50,240
Speaker 1: a surprise to both of us at this point. Washington

384
00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:54,400
Speaker 1: at Atlanta, Atlanta's down to one. Atlanta opened at three

385
00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:56,960
Speaker 1: on Sunday. This was the first game I bet on Sunday.

386
00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,159
Speaker 1: It's the first game I talked about on the Sunday

387
00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:05,479
Speaker 1: Night Show. I actually bet Atlanta, UH thinking that Jaden

388
00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:11,600
Speaker 1: Daniels was going to be playing, actually not really knowing

389
00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:14,119
Speaker 1: if he was gonna be playing, but expecting him to

390
00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:18,360
Speaker 1: be playing, And so we don't know yet. He said

391
00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:21,399
Speaker 1: it's up to the doctors. He practiced. The line has

392
00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:26,560
Speaker 1: moved in the Falcons direction, like the COLV to me

393
00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:29,879
Speaker 1: is saying, if we can get the Falcons at a

394
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,640
Speaker 1: more beneficial number in the contest, and that's a team

395
00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,640
Speaker 1: that just came off a blowout and was shut out.

396
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:40,280
Speaker 1: The trends hashtag trend setter, are all going to be

397
00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:44,600
Speaker 1: in our favorite for the Falcons? Are we going to

398
00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:46,679
Speaker 1: have to put the Falcons in so we don't have

399
00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:48,960
Speaker 1: four favorites and an underdog.

400
00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:51,960
Speaker 3: Again, it's a week to week league.

401
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:53,920
Speaker 2: I have no issues having a ton of favorites this week.

402
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,639
Speaker 2: That's that's least of my worries. But I there's a

403
00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:01,640
Speaker 2: ninety chance that I refuse put in with Atlanta team.

404
00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:05,320
Speaker 2: I just the Penick stuff. Man, he's not good, and

405
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:08,000
Speaker 2: like I keep saying, he's very young. I don't want

406
00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:10,840
Speaker 2: to judge him too hard because he needs time. He

407
00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,200
Speaker 2: just needs starts, He needs reps and needs to play

408
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:16,560
Speaker 2: against different style of defenses. So I just can't get

409
00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:18,560
Speaker 2: there at Penixy. Like you said, this is an amazing

410
00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:22,240
Speaker 2: spot for Atlanta. Typically you know a team that gets

411
00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:24,400
Speaker 2: rolled like that, and now they're a dog at home

412
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 2: against potential quarterback coming off a serious injury that seems

413
00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:30,159
Speaker 2: like he's rushing him back a little bit. It's just

414
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,320
Speaker 2: a weird spot to be back of the commander. So

415
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:34,040
Speaker 2: I think your read is right. I mean your initial

416
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:35,800
Speaker 2: read on the three was spot on, Like that was

417
00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:38,560
Speaker 2: a great number. Anyone out there that has a three.

418
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,200
Speaker 2: You don't need to touch or watch this game anyway.

419
00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:44,800
Speaker 2: You have a great clothing line value and whatever. But

420
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:47,280
Speaker 2: I don't know if I can get there. I just

421
00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:49,320
Speaker 2: I've gone back and watched the Penix.

422
00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:52,160
Speaker 3: Tape and he's got issues.

423
00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:55,440
Speaker 2: And as you see these defenses getting more tape on him,

424
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:58,200
Speaker 2: it's gonna be interesting to see how he progresses through

425
00:19:58,320 --> 00:19:58,840
Speaker 2: his career.

426
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:02,840
Speaker 3: Because there's not many lefties in the league.

427
00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:05,640
Speaker 2: And I know that's a stupid thing, but like there's

428
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:09,400
Speaker 2: certain drops and certain throws he makes where it's like, is.

429
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:10,880
Speaker 3: This why there's no lefties?

430
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:13,440
Speaker 2: Is this is exact this got the exact reason why

431
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:15,600
Speaker 2: or is it just a fluky thing that there just

432
00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:18,479
Speaker 2: aren't that many left tenned quarterbacks. But he's just been

433
00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:20,560
Speaker 2: unlucky to me in a couple of ways. And now

434
00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:25,280
Speaker 2: in this matchup, you expect after getting embarrassed, you know,

435
00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,480
Speaker 2: Raheem Morrison, this defense to bounce back. They should play

436
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,040
Speaker 2: better Atlanta. So I get where Chad's coming from here.

437
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 2: I just I have no confidence right now in the

438
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:37,200
Speaker 2: quarterback and I just have major questions where Washington, even

439
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,720
Speaker 2: though he's banged up, Daniels, this is the exact team

440
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:43,119
Speaker 2: he dominates like a bad team indoors on turf. So

441
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,159
Speaker 2: it's if he was fully healthy, There's no way I

442
00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 2: would touch Atlanta. But what the question marks if it

443
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:50,439
Speaker 2: is Mariota and if we are able to get the

444
00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:52,080
Speaker 2: early number right, if we can get two and a

445
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:54,679
Speaker 2: half against Mariota plus two and a half, is Alanta as

446
00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:56,480
Speaker 2: a dog? I could be talking into a chat for

447
00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:59,439
Speaker 2: our contest. Maybe, but at this number, no way. It's

448
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,399
Speaker 2: it's moved too much. This is start quickly becoming a

449
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:03,719
Speaker 2: commander's number in my opinion.

450
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:06,960
Speaker 1: We'll see what we get on Sunday. This could be

451
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:07,679
Speaker 1: in the conversation.

452
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,160
Speaker 3: We owe people like ten, like more than this one.

453
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:13,879
Speaker 1: Okay, well that's a strong statement, Cleveland. At Detroit, we

454
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,359
Speaker 1: owe people of brass balls. I wonder if we should

455
00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 1: have a conversation about Detroit. It's minus nine as a

456
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 1: brass balls game de Troit, all right, So then let's

457
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 1: do it. Detroit Lions minus nine. They're gonna be our

458
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:34,440
Speaker 1: brass balls better the week.

459
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:40,720
Speaker 3: You know what it takes. It takes brass balls.

460
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:44,560
Speaker 1: And I'm pretty sure I just scared the Bejesus out

461
00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 1: of every eighty seven year old neighbor of my mother

462
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,880
Speaker 1: in law's on either side of the walls in her apartment.

463
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:54,639
Speaker 1: This has been a wacky line because we saw it

464
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,359
Speaker 1: in real time. On Tuesday, I went to bet this

465
00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 1: right after we recorded the show. It had been at

466
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:01,919
Speaker 1: eight and a half. I convinced myself the Lions were

467
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,320
Speaker 1: the right side. The Browns had their moment in the

468
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 1: exact right spot under perfect conditions against the Packers. When

469
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 1: I went to bet the game, seriously, in the time

470
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 1: it took me to log into one of the sports books,

471
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 1: it had moved from eight and a half to nine

472
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 1: painted across the board. And then Simon, you and me

473
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 1: were on the phone after the recording, after I had

474
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 1: made the bet, it moved back down to eight and

475
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 1: a half, and then it got back up to nine

476
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 1: and a half and now it's back down to nine.

477
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:36,400
Speaker 1: So clearly there's you know, some people who are finding

478
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 1: the threshold for where they want to bet the Browns

479
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 1: and some people finding the threat the threshold for whether

480
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 1: they want to bet the Lions. I'm still thrilled about

481
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 1: betting the Lions. I think this is such just such

482
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:47,920
Speaker 1: a good spot for them.

483
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:49,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love them.

484
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 2: And another game where you dive in the trends, You're like,

485
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 2: what's the bad part of this Lions team?

486
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 3: Is this big of a favorite?

487
00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 2: That's what I'm trying to find here, because it's another

488
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:01,880
Speaker 2: line that it feels like again sometimes you're just seeing

489
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,159
Speaker 2: the field clearly and you're reading the lines right, And

490
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 2: this is another game though, I just didn't get why

491
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 2: it wasn't ten. Now it is ten, like one of

492
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:09,400
Speaker 2: the more public books in all of Americas at ten,

493
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,120
Speaker 2: So I assume most of their books will follow that way.

494
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 3: But the trends are interesting, right.

495
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 2: Our guy Evan Abrams had an amazing trend about this

496
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:18,399
Speaker 2: exact spot with Dan Campbell.

497
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,159
Speaker 3: So he basically when he just when.

498
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:24,639
Speaker 2: They have a absolutely insane blowout, Right, they beat a

499
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 2: team last week by six plus points, they're twenty two

500
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:30,760
Speaker 2: and six against the spread the following game. So after

501
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 2: they blow a team out, they just keep it rolling.

502
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, they like to. Ben Johnson said this the other day.

503
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 1: Someone asked him after the Bills the Bears got destroyed

504
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:42,360
Speaker 1: by the Lions, was he annoyed that they didn't kick

505
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 1: a field goal? And he said about the Lions, they

506
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,160
Speaker 1: score touchdowns. That's what they do.

507
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 2: Again, It's just predicuts to what Dan Campbell is right,

508
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 2: This is all stats under Dan Campbell. So they win

509
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:56,879
Speaker 2: by six, The next game is twenty two and six.

510
00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 2: If they went seven by seven plus, they're nineteen o

511
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 2: five the game after against his Bread. So it's like

512
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 2: when they get rolling like this, when the offense is clicking,

513
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 2: they just steamroll teams and they don't take the foot

514
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 2: off the gas. Right, Dan Campbell likes it when the

515
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:12,200
Speaker 2: team is rolling like that. He doesn't want to slow

516
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 2: it down. So he talked about it. There's ways to

517
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 2: neutralize this front four of the Browns, and that is

518
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,800
Speaker 2: gonna be really interesting here because they are arguably the

519
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:27,159
Speaker 2: greatest run defense we've ever seen. When you look at

520
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:30,640
Speaker 2: the stats, what they've done through three weeks against really

521
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:34,119
Speaker 2: good run team. I mean Josh Jacobs stud Derrick Henry

522
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 2: Stud even week one, Jace Brown with Brio Burrow.

523
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 3: He's pretty good. Like when that when he was healthy

524
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 3: with Burrow, they shut him all down. So I can't wait.

525
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 2: Like this is arguably the best running tack of football,

526
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 2: the hammer in the nail of you know, the one

527
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 2: two punch of Gibbs of Montgomery.

528
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 3: So I love it.

529
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 2: I think we're on the same page that you know,

530
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 2: might be a little scary here in the very beginning,

531
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 2: but as the game goes along, I love the idea

532
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 2: of a big win here for this Lions team.

533
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 1: We've done this with the Lions before. I think a

534
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 1: year or two ago. We bet them at minus fourteen.

535
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 1: It might have been against the Jags and someone, whoever

536
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:12,360
Speaker 1: it was. They came out to a ten to nothing

537
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 1: lead and then the Lions rolled and all of a

538
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 1: sudden it was like fifty five to ten.

539
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 3: That's what I was saing about.

540
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 2: It's away scary of betting these big spreads because we

541
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 2: see how it can go a million different ways. Right

542
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,919
Speaker 2: golf as the off day, we're dead. But yeah, historically

543
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:28,880
Speaker 2: have no fear people Dan Campbell in this spot. It's

544
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 2: been pretty profitable over the class couple of years, and

545
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 2: he backed it up last week with that Ravens fall.

546
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 2: Like Chad said, they blew out the Bears, they came down,

547
00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:37,439
Speaker 2: they laid it on that Ravens team. So they're just

548
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 2: they're cruising since week one. This is alreay Lee won

549
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,080
Speaker 2: the best teams in all football.

550
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 1: Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting

551
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 1: sponsor hard Rock Bet. Week four kicks off tonight with

552
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:52,080
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553
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554
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555
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556
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557
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,919
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558
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:13,840
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559
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:16,840
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560
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:21,800
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561
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566
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572
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 1: How about the under about the Cardinals to win? How

573
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,800
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574
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:10,240
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589
00:27:56,359 --> 00:28:01,200
Speaker 1: Tennessee or Virginia, New Orleans at Buffalo. Speaking of big spreads,

590
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 1: this number is at sixteen and a half. You had

591
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 1: this rated at seventeen. It was fifteen and a half

592
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 1: on Sunday, got up to sixteen and a half, actually

593
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 1: got back down to fifteen and a half. I took

594
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,479
Speaker 1: the sixteen. But what do we really do with this? Like,

595
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 1: are we confident of putting this in the contest? Like

596
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 1: I know there are trends home team sixteen plus point

597
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 1: favorites since twenty fifteen, sixteen and nine against the spread

598
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 1: twenty two and three. Overall, we know the Bills will

599
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 1: be everyone's survivor pick. By the way, that was from

600
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 1: Killer Sports. But it's still a huge number. And we

601
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 1: know the Bills have an injured defense, and we know

602
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 1: that if they get up big, they could just end

603
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,080
Speaker 1: up bleeding the clock. So I don't know if it's

604
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 1: a contest play for me. I still like the Bills.

605
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 1: I didn't do a full unit on this game, but

606
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:58,320
Speaker 1: I think I want to be on the Bills side here.

607
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I bet they I bet the Bills.

608
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 2: I'm like you, I there's never I was never gonna

609
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,000
Speaker 2: have this in the contest. I just I can't have

610
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 2: any confidence in that Bill's defense. This is really a

611
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:11,240
Speaker 2: Josh Allen bet in a fate of Spencer Ratler, who

612
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 2: just looks so bad and inconsistent, where sure he might

613
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 2: get him down there. How many touchdowns are they really

614
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 2: going to score?

615
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:17,239
Speaker 3: Right?

616
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 2: And that will be introducing part where they've just been

617
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 2: settling for so many field goals in this color more offense,

618
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 2: do they just start getting super aggressive and stop kicking

619
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 2: the threes and start going for the touchdowns. So just

620
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 2: a historical spot for Josh Allen not great right as

621
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 2: a ten point favor in his career, He's six ten

622
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 2: and two against the spread, so thirty eight percent in

623
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:38,960
Speaker 2: this exact spot.

624
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 3: So it's just not sometimes we bang.

625
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 2: The table for it's really about the number and how

626
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 2: bad that Saints team is that I'll probably be more

627
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 2: in on backing them at home.

628
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 3: But these type of scenarios.

629
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 2: Back to back, really tough road teams flying across the country,

630
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 2: then flying again up back up north. It just feels

631
00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 2: like a horrible spot for this Stints team against you know,

632
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 2: a Bills team that's on extended rest, and we'll be

633
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 2: interesting what that defense is like they've had more times

634
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 2: if they got any of these guys back, But.

635
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, if they're fully healthy at Oliver's.

636
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 2: In all that, I would have loved this spot for

637
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 2: this Bills team, but they just they have so many injuries.

638
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 3: It's just you can't ignore it.

639
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 2: There are ways for the Saints team to attack it

640
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 2: if they have the right right stuff going that day.

641
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 2: So I'm glad we're in the same page. We'll brebnd

642
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 2: it no way mixed to our contest.

643
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 1: I mean, we might be eating some square soup on Sunday.

644
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 3: I can't always bet dogs, Jed.

645
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 1: I'm just saying we are. We are Square Quentin Tarantino

646
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 1: Reservoir Dogs this week.

647
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 2: Because I just love the home teams. That's what I found. Like,

648
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 2: that's why I'm happy you're like all on the Chargers

649
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 2: and you know, I just needed some road team for

650
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 2: us in our contest where it's like that was my

651
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 2: biggest thing. I know right away, it was like, I

652
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 2: love the home teams this week, which is very random.

653
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 1: Speaking at home teams Indianapolis at the Los Angeles Rams.

654
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 1: The Rams are three and a half point favorites. We've

655
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 1: kind of just been hoping this would get to three.

656
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 1: It hasn't gotten there.

657
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 2: It did for a second, which was crazy because I

658
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 2: was like, oh, it's happening.

659
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 3: And it stopped. Chad, it went right back to three

660
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 3: and a half.

661
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 1: I didn't even see when. Did it happen at like

662
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 1: two in the morning?

663
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 2: No, no normal time like mid day because just again, people,

664
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 2: you can set alerts on your phone for different things

665
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 2: like this on apps. I shall not mention, and it

666
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 2: will tell you when it moves.

667
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:26,240
Speaker 3: So yeah, I got in a little right away.

668
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 2: Try to send a runner to go bet it for me,

669
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 2: and literally ten minutes later it's gone. So that's Chad's right.

670
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 2: This is going to stay. I believe it three and

671
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 2: a half the professional.

672
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 1: It actually looks like it might move to four based

673
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 1: on the price for based on the juice.

674
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 3: Okay, I didn't see that. Yeah, yeah, I guess you're right.

675
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 3: I'm looking at it right now. Yeah, that's a possibility.

676
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 2: I love the Rams and we've already talked about it.

677
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 2: It's we're selling a little bit on the cold steam.

678
00:31:57,920 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 3: We do. We love it.

679
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 2: I'm a big been betting them every week, it feels like,

680
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 2: and this is that type of game, just like the

681
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 2: Chargers last week, like you win this, I gotta started

682
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 2: making big changes, a big updates, Like I haven't moved

683
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 2: the model enough to respect this Colts team, But I

684
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 2: can't help but get over and look at who they played, right,

685
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 2: like a Miami, a Denver, and a Tennessee team. And

686
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 2: it's easy early in the year here to get sucked

687
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 2: in on these teams that look so well against bad teams,

688
00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 2: just because the way the schedule breaks, where you have

689
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 2: really good teams playing against other really good teams, we

690
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 2: still don't know who they are, and it's like, well,

691
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 2: this team looks sloppy.

692
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 3: They don't look good, they don't look disciplined.

693
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 2: So like looking at my mouth, it's crazy how much

694
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:44,680
Speaker 2: higher I have Colts rated than these other teams that

695
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 2: would shock people. But in this exact spot, I still

696
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 2: think this should be closer to what it opened at

697
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 2: four to four and a half. Like when I first

698
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 2: saw that opening line, I was shocked by it. But

699
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 2: the more you dive into it, it's like this Rams

700
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 2: team they usually beat up on teams like this Colts

701
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 2: team that you know have a struggling secondary that can

702
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 2: be passed on. Even bo Nicks was moving the ball

703
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 2: against this Colt secondary. So yeah, I look at this

704
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 2: matchup very favable for this Rams team. My biggest fear

705
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:19,000
Speaker 2: question is how does this Rams defense slow down Daniel

706
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 2: Jones and Jonathan Taylor because they are real problem right now,

707
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 2: Like the best argue with the best one to combo

708
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 2: football quarterback running back. Just he's incredible right now, Danie

709
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 2: Jones against the Blitz. But like I said, it's it's

710
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 2: gonna be interesting how well he did against his other defense.

711
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:36,600
Speaker 2: Denver is legit, but we talked about that it was

712
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 2: a bad spot for Denver. How can he perform against

713
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,520
Speaker 2: a Rams team that is going to be very hungry,

714
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 2: is going to be desperate, and you know we've seen

715
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 2: that stat this Rams team. They were nine to zero

716
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 2: their last twelve games. They're only three losses were against

717
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 2: that Eagles team. So this is a team that has

718
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 2: been playing really well. We're getting probably a little bit

719
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 2: of a discount here because of a flu key blocked

720
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 2: field goal that if they won, probably stays at four

721
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 2: and a half. Maybe the professional put it up to

722
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 2: five and a halfs I was gonna say it might

723
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 2: get higher.

724
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:10,480
Speaker 3: Yeah it could, because like I told you that professionals

725
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 3: I've talked to. They're like us.

726
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 2: They like the Rams here, but there is pushback. Like

727
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:16,600
Speaker 2: I do know some pros that they're not getting off

728
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:19,880
Speaker 2: the Daniel Jones train yet. They just think him running

729
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 2: this tike in the Shanahan type of offense.

730
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 3: Is just working for this Colts team right now.

731
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:28,800
Speaker 2: So I know mean chat went to three, but I'm

732
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 2: glad to say a three and a half because that's

733
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 2: what's gonna be in our contest. So that's what I've

734
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:33,840
Speaker 2: been betting all week. It's one of my bigger bets.

735
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:37,000
Speaker 2: I'm gonna stick with it ends up being our contest.

736
00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:39,360
Speaker 2: I got no issue with it. I just I gotta

737
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 2: trust the Rams in this spot in this matchup and

738
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 2: sell an overvalued Colts team and just hope they cool

739
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:48,960
Speaker 2: off because we've seen a football sometimes it takes five

740
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 2: six weeks for these teams they're really actually cool off.

741
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:52,799
Speaker 2: So we might be stepping right in front of this

742
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:55,240
Speaker 2: Colts train, but I gotta do it with this number.

743
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 1: I feel the same exact way as you do. I

744
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 1: would have no hesitation with this one at all, and

745
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 1: I might end up betting the three and a half today.

746
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 1: I'm trying to be really really impatient.

747
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 3: What's that a hard place?

748
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:12,839
Speaker 1: Well, I look, I was gonna we can do that.

749
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 1: We can make this the rock and the hard place,

750
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 1: hard rock better of the week. I think we have

751
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 1: two other games coming up, Jacksonville, San Francisco and Baltimore

752
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:23,719
Speaker 1: Kansas City that could fill that two so I think

753
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:27,320
Speaker 1: we should focus on those. So let's leave Rams minus

754
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 1: three and a half. I don't think it's a hard

755
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 1: spot because we actually both love the Rams, you know

756
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 1: what I mean. Jacksonville at San Francisco. San Francisco is

757
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 1: still at minus three.

758
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 3: No.

759
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 1: Nit Bosa Schefter did say Purdy has a good chance

760
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 1: to play. Adam Schefter said he had a good chance

761
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:48,279
Speaker 1: to play earlier this week. Simon, I don't know about you.

762
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:50,840
Speaker 1: You said on Tuesday you wanted to watch film of

763
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 1: rock Party in practice. I watched two minutes and fifty

764
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 1: seconds of Brock Purdy practicing on YouTube to some very

765
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 1: calming ethereal music that was the soundtrack. I saw him

766
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 1: take snaps and drop back. I saw him in the shotgun.

767
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:12,560
Speaker 1: I saw him throw a couple of bombs. I throw him.

768
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 1: I saw him do one throw where he was running

769
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 1: straight forward and sort of throwing off a one foot

770
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 1: He looked brilliant. I know, so clearly he's totally fine.

771
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:27,799
Speaker 1: Because we are internet doctors. The line has moved in

772
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 1: that direction. It did move to three and a half.

773
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:33,440
Speaker 1: It might be three at hard Rock right now, but

774
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 1: I do think there's mostly three and a half's out there.

775
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 1: I'm glad I got the Niners at three because I

776
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:41,799
Speaker 1: feel really good about the bet right now.

777
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:45,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, even three and a half. Well again, another I

778
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:45,879
Speaker 3: can't believe.

779
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:47,680
Speaker 2: I just love these home TRK favorites, but it's like

780
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:50,240
Speaker 2: another line I trust with this team in this matchup,

781
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:53,759
Speaker 2: and the pretty things bizarre because they made it as

782
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:55,760
Speaker 2: if it's like as if his toe was like hanging

783
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 2: off his foot, and yeah, we're going to be three

784
00:36:58,360 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 2: four weeks of an injury.

785
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 3: And it's like he said on one game, and.

786
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:04,919
Speaker 2: Like Chad said, he moved, He was moving. You could

787
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 2: not tell he was ever injured. He looked the exact

788
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:08,920
Speaker 2: same as he did in early August when he was

789
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 2: fully rest and healthy.

790
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 3: So I'm with Chad is a doctor, fake doctor. I

791
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:14,239
Speaker 3: don't know what to make of it.

792
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:16,840
Speaker 2: I couldn't believe how good he looked and that's like

793
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:18,799
Speaker 2: you just said, that's why the number to me has moved.

794
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 3: It feels like, why would they sit him if.

795
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 2: He's moving like that, if he's looking like that in

796
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 2: practice on a Tuesday and on Wednesday, why would you

797
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:29,239
Speaker 2: sit him for Mac Jones that you know, as good

798
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:31,879
Speaker 2: as Mac played last week right leaving that comeback drive

799
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,320
Speaker 2: you saw it, It's like it's it is Mac Jones.

800
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:36,839
Speaker 3: He is a backup quarterback party. It's just a totally

801
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 3: different level.

802
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:42,800
Speaker 2: And you know, my my question here is Trevor Lawrence

803
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:43,920
Speaker 2: for as to solid defense.

804
00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:46,800
Speaker 3: I know Nick Bosa is now out.

805
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 1: Feels like beat it's a bet on Robert Sala. It's

806
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:50,240
Speaker 1: what we're doing.

807
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 2: It honestly is it's also I mean it's been on Purtty,

808
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:53,919
Speaker 2: but it's been on Sawa in the sense of these

809
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 2: matchups that you know, it's it's never been good for

810
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 2: this Daguars team, right, we can we can look at

811
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 2: the data. I think it's the last twenty years whenever

812
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 2: they're traveling from the East coast to West coast, they're

813
00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:09,360
Speaker 2: three and thirteen straight up, three and twelve against the

814
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:12,320
Speaker 2: spread in this exact spot. So this is historically Jaguars

815
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:15,400
Speaker 2: doesn't travel well, and that I think honestly says a

816
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:18,320
Speaker 2: lot about Trevor where it's like, even going through his career,

817
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 2: his offense has come out slow in these exact type

818
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:24,400
Speaker 2: of games where it's like they whatever it is, getting

819
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 2: off the plane, whatever that old saying is like that

820
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:28,239
Speaker 2: one team looks like they're coming out shut out of

821
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:30,640
Speaker 2: the can, and the Jags never look like that in

822
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:33,080
Speaker 2: this exact spot when they go on the road, especially

823
00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 2: after a win. So I look at this as once

824
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:41,840
Speaker 2: again a team that Jaguars could be very good offensively

825
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 2: as a season progressive. I just see that Trevor's having

826
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:47,320
Speaker 2: problems learning this offense, and I know he's been burned

827
00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 2: by the drops, right I think he Yeah.

828
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:50,439
Speaker 3: I think he's amount of drops.

829
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like they lead the league in drops right now.

830
00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 2: I don't know if that's gonna be a quick fix.

831
00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:57,840
Speaker 2: And especially when you're going against a matchup against a

832
00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:00,120
Speaker 2: solid defense that you know, even with their injury is

833
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:03,320
Speaker 2: their defense has been swarming and really good against these receivers.

834
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's more chalk.

835
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 2: Another spot where it's a home team I love, And

836
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:13,560
Speaker 2: yeah hard Rocks still minus three go grab because I

837
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 2: do think Purdy gets cleared. This gets up to three

838
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:18,799
Speaker 2: and a half four by game time, so it's all

839
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 2: about line value. I would still if you're stuck in

840
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 2: the state that you can get minus three and a half,

841
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:24,680
Speaker 2: I'd still take it, like I still think that's a

842
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:27,120
Speaker 2: that's a good price on this number. Have this game

843
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:29,800
Speaker 2: closer to four, so it gets to four and a

844
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 2: half and you haven't made a bet. Yes, you can

845
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:34,239
Speaker 2: take a position to Jaguars. I just I wouldn't do it.

846
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 2: I just have major questions about the Jaguars team that

847
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 2: they feel very very fortunate to be two and one,

848
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:42,000
Speaker 2: but also another team that could easily be three nows.

849
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:43,800
Speaker 2: So a really weird team to try to get a

850
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 2: read on this year, this Jaguars team. But think me

851
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 2: and you're on the same page four nine. As we

852
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:49,359
Speaker 2: know we're getting from this defense right now. The only

853
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:52,200
Speaker 2: only true unknown is the pretty injury. We both agreed

854
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:53,360
Speaker 2: he looked well in practice.

855
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 1: I can't abide when you're giving me a trend from

856
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:02,080
Speaker 1: the Jaguars that is thirty years in the making. You

857
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:06,479
Speaker 1: know that doesn't mean anything. Twenty years in the making,

858
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:08,280
Speaker 1: It doesn't mean anything.

859
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:11,160
Speaker 3: To you.

860
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:18,719
Speaker 1: To the history to logic. I'm with you. I think

861
00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:20,279
Speaker 1: I think Trevor Lawrence is.

862
00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:22,800
Speaker 2: Trash taking his army ran to that Russian winter that

863
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 2: whose Chad is? Chad would say, who cares what happened

864
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 2: to Napoleone? Who cares what happened to the Germans? We

865
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:31,439
Speaker 2: go into Russia. I don't care what happened thirty years ago.

866
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:33,799
Speaker 2: History matters, Chad learn.

867
00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:37,440
Speaker 1: Oh my god, that is a ridiculous analogy.

868
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:39,839
Speaker 2: It's not You're the same person that just says, well,

869
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:42,720
Speaker 2: these things won't matter. Happened twenty years goes, No, it matters.

870
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 2: It's all connected, brother. We'll figure it.

871
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:48,319
Speaker 1: Out one way or the other. We want to be

872
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:50,800
Speaker 1: on the same side here, and either you're going to

873
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 1: be proven right with your historical irrelevant correlation not causation references,

874
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:01,839
Speaker 1: or we're gonna be proven right because the Semprsusco forty

875
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 1: nine ers are a better team and Trevor Lawrence just

876
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 1: isn't a very good quarterback, at least not right now.

877
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 1: Baltimore at Kansas City plus two and a half, Simon,

878
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:11,320
Speaker 1: this one has been lingering in two and a half.

879
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:14,440
Speaker 1: I think this is going to be our rock and

880
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:16,840
Speaker 1: a hard place hard rock better the week.

881
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:18,359
Speaker 2: Oh what a rock.

882
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 1: You mentioned it at the top of the show. This

883
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:27,920
Speaker 1: is a sharp call, like the wise guys like the

884
00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 1: Chiefs here. You've been pounding the table for the Chiefs

885
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:32,960
Speaker 1: all week. I listened to the show on Tuesday, Like,

886
00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 1: you made a case for why you're taking the Chiefs here.

887
00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:41,920
Speaker 1: The Ravens defense is still decimated, right, like van Ney injured,

888
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 1: the middle of that defensive line injured. They are especially

889
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:50,960
Speaker 1: challenged against the run. Here's the problem. Chiefs cannot run

890
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 1: and Patrick Mahomes has zero weapons. So this is just

891
00:41:56,280 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 1: us believing in the magic of spag Steve Spagnol. Believe

892
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:03,840
Speaker 1: in that the Ravens are troubled right now, believe in

893
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:09,160
Speaker 1: that Patrick Mahomes can do something Patrick Mahomes like, is

894
00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 1: that correct?

895
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:13,799
Speaker 2: No, They're going they get Worthy's worthies coming back. He's

896
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:14,280
Speaker 2: a weapon.

897
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:16,400
Speaker 1: Oh I didn't see that, Okay.

898
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:19,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, So that's a big deal as far

899
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:20,280
Speaker 2: as the run game goes.

900
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 3: I agree with you on that.

901
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:25,400
Speaker 2: Like Pacheco has not looked at Samson's injury whatever, whatever

902
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:27,319
Speaker 2: it is, lose that half a step in football, it

903
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:29,960
Speaker 2: just matters, right, It's just yeah, you can just tell

904
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 2: them guys don't have their burst anymore. But you know,

905
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:35,960
Speaker 2: I look at this Chiefs team that they have faced

906
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:38,400
Speaker 2: really tough run defenses too. So that's why I'm not

907
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 2: trying to be too hard on it. It's like, yeah,

908
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:44,400
Speaker 2: you played the Eagles the Chargers. You know, even that

909
00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 2: Giants matchup against that front four wasn't ideal to run

910
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:51,640
Speaker 2: the ball against him. You expect it to be much

911
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:54,239
Speaker 2: easier against a Ravens team that literally cannot stop the

912
00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:55,279
Speaker 2: run in any way.

913
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:58,719
Speaker 3: And do they have the guys that can make the adjustments.

914
00:42:58,760 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 3: I don't know.

915
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:01,400
Speaker 2: It just feels like with injuries they've had the Ravens,

916
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:03,319
Speaker 2: they don't know if they can make those type of adjustments.

917
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:07,439
Speaker 2: And it's also a unique spot of the short week

918
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 2: for Mahomes. Right when Mahomes plays team's coming off a

919
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 2: short week. He's been very profful in this spot going

920
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:14,480
Speaker 2: back many years. Chad, I know you hate that, but

921
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 2: going back many years.

922
00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 1: I don't mind if it's the same player going back

923
00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:20,640
Speaker 1: many years, but if you're giving me a team and a.

924
00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:25,319
Speaker 2: Franchise, super Bowl trends, oh jesus, they go back fifty years.

925
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, I just Mahomes in this exact spot, short

926
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 2: week against teams, come off short week eighteen to three

927
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:34,759
Speaker 2: straight up in his career, Lamar pretty good short week,

928
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 2: you know, like it kind of cancels out.

929
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 3: He's five and three in his career.

930
00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 2: But when he's just on normal wrestling Mars twenty nine

931
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 2: and thirteen straight up, So there is a little bit

932
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:44,400
Speaker 2: of a difference, right, He's much better obviously when he

933
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 2: has more rest.

934
00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:49,319
Speaker 3: But this number, I'm still confident in it.

935
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 2: But I'm glad some threes popped up because I could

936
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 2: not get over the fact that I wasn't gonna be

937
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:56,919
Speaker 2: able to get a Chiefs three. I just couldn't believe

938
00:43:56,960 --> 00:43:58,320
Speaker 2: this is really gonna stay at two and a half,

939
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:01,360
Speaker 2: Like this is really the books are that confidence in

940
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 2: this Chiefs team where I'm like chat where it's like

941
00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:05,360
Speaker 2: I'm betting the number, I'm betting Mahomes in the spot.

942
00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:08,279
Speaker 2: But I'm not confident in this Chiefs team honestly, where

943
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:11,839
Speaker 2: it's like they got a ton of time to get

944
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:13,839
Speaker 2: it right, but right now it just ain't right. Like

945
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:15,919
Speaker 2: there's little things that keep going wrong. They're just trying

946
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:18,960
Speaker 2: to keep finding their identities. So this one really is

947
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 2: about trusting Mahomes this matchup and fading a Ravens team

948
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:26,280
Speaker 2: that just looks dicksfunctioned and as great as Lamar's playing,

949
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:28,439
Speaker 2: I've seen all the stats, how credible he has been.

950
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:31,719
Speaker 2: I mean, this is, no doubt, the best defense he's

951
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:33,839
Speaker 2: faced this year. So it'll be interesting how he plays

952
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:39,279
Speaker 2: against his defense, where Lamar's no doubt should not be

953
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:41,520
Speaker 2: sitting here at one and two and like, I can't

954
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:43,279
Speaker 2: you know saying he'sna be one to three after this game,

955
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:44,960
Speaker 2: which I think he will be as crazy as think,

956
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:48,440
Speaker 2: but it happens, right It's just teams with bad matchups,

957
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:50,920
Speaker 2: and still would bet them to win their division.

958
00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:52,600
Speaker 3: Still think they'll make the.

959
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:55,239
Speaker 2: Playoffs as long as Lamar's healthy. So it's not that

960
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:57,040
Speaker 2: big of a deal because the season is so long

961
00:44:57,120 --> 00:44:59,880
Speaker 2: right now, but I get it. We're betting against a

962
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 2: very desperate team in this Ravens team that got embarrassed

963
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 2: in our prime time is about.

964
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:05,000
Speaker 3: Usually we'd be the other way.

965
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:08,640
Speaker 2: But the every probably talk to you likes the Chiefs

966
00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:11,840
Speaker 2: on this side, and I would say every Joe Public

967
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 2: guy I've bumped into in the sportsbook last two days,

968
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 2: it's just all about this Raves. You believe I'm getting

969
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:19,400
Speaker 2: Ravens minus two and a half here, like a what

970
00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:21,319
Speaker 2: a gift. So that's why, like I said the chat, yeah,

971
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 2: I'm happy the three pops because I couldn't believe every

972
00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:25,480
Speaker 2: book was holding at two and a half. I was

973
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:27,560
Speaker 2: thinking some professionals have to come in on the Ravens

974
00:45:27,560 --> 00:45:30,319
Speaker 2: at some point. So one book here in Jersey has

975
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 2: moved to three. So it's not a lot of professional

976
00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:35,120
Speaker 2: money on this Ravens side. It really is the pros

977
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:36,799
Speaker 2: and the books lining up here on the Chiefs, so

978
00:45:37,320 --> 00:45:39,440
Speaker 2: can't avoid it. Got to take it. It's a good number,

979
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 2: probably should be closer to a pick. We're just getting

980
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:44,400
Speaker 2: a ton of undervalued Chiefs love right now, just because

981
00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:46,799
Speaker 2: what Chad said, right, it's people don't know wheth he's

982
00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 2: coming back. They doubt this offense, all their weaknesses, and

983
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:52,720
Speaker 2: it's it's Lamar after a loss, right It's it feels

984
00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:55,360
Speaker 2: like it's a pretty easy bet for most people. So yes,

985
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:57,440
Speaker 2: it's it's scary. It's two and a half still in

986
00:45:57,480 --> 00:46:00,160
Speaker 2: our I believe in our contest. But if you can

987
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:01,759
Speaker 2: get the three right now, just betting the people, I

988
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:03,399
Speaker 2: would grab that three in the Chiefs and it feels

989
00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:04,360
Speaker 2: like that's a good number.

990
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 3: They do lose, it won't be buy more than a

991
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:06,640
Speaker 3: field goal.

992
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:10,080
Speaker 1: Chiefs are nothing to me. Bag you say, you say

993
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:13,760
Speaker 1: bet the Ravens. I'm like, that feels that doesn't feel

994
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:19,760
Speaker 1: right the Chiefs. The Ravens feels off. The Chiefs feels scary,

995
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 1: you know what I mean? Like you just instinctively institutional knowledge.

996
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 1: Whatever you get that that sort of gut reaction to it,

997
00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 1: that's built into all the knowledge you've been gathering. And

998
00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 1: that's how I feel about it real quickly. I want

999
00:46:31,560 --> 00:46:33,920
Speaker 1: to talk about the Bears and the Raiders only because

1000
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 1: this game has been flip flopping. On Tuesday, the Raiders

1001
00:46:37,400 --> 00:46:40,239
Speaker 1: one and a half point dogs. Today they're one point favorites.

1002
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:43,960
Speaker 1: You can find both a bunch of places strictly for

1003
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 1: the contest. I don't know, do we like the rave

1004
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 1: If we can get the Raiders as underdogs, are we

1005
00:46:49,160 --> 00:46:50,919
Speaker 1: thinking that's what we want to do? Like, I don't

1006
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:54,520
Speaker 1: feel that strongly about this team.

1007
00:46:54,719 --> 00:46:55,120
Speaker 3: I do.

1008
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:57,640
Speaker 2: I love Raiders here, but okay, I will make you

1009
00:46:57,680 --> 00:46:58,719
Speaker 2: force it in because I know I.

1010
00:46:58,719 --> 00:47:01,239
Speaker 1: Don't I don't like. I don't know that we're going

1011
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:06,880
Speaker 1: to have a fifth that we like better. But you know,

1012
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:09,080
Speaker 1: at the end of the show, let's sort of we

1013
00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:10,880
Speaker 1: will review where I understand.

1014
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:13,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you. It's it's just a game where

1015
00:47:13,320 --> 00:47:14,399
Speaker 3: I just love the number. Right.

1016
00:47:14,400 --> 00:47:16,399
Speaker 2: There was still a couple of one and a half

1017
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:17,880
Speaker 2: plus one and a half's in the raiders there and

1018
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:18,600
Speaker 2: I just loved it.

1019
00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 3: And you know, it's it's.

1020
00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:23,839
Speaker 2: Data going back many years, chat with your Bears team

1021
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:26,200
Speaker 2: that they just don't perform well. It doesn't matter who

1022
00:47:26,239 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 2: the new quarterback is after they have incredible quarterback play,

1023
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:31,919
Speaker 2: and you know, you dive into all the trends since

1024
00:47:31,960 --> 00:47:34,919
Speaker 2: twenty eighteen, the Bears six and ten straight up, five

1025
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:36,800
Speaker 2: and eleven against the spread after they have a quarterback

1026
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:39,759
Speaker 2: that throws for three plus touchdowns. I don't know, is

1027
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:43,640
Speaker 2: that a Mitch Trubisky justin fieldstad or is Kayleb Williams

1028
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:46,080
Speaker 2: going to be a part of that, because he looked

1029
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:48,239
Speaker 2: really good in that game with no pass rush. And

1030
00:47:48,280 --> 00:47:51,279
Speaker 2: that's my fear is that when he in the right

1031
00:47:51,400 --> 00:47:54,080
Speaker 2: type of matchups, he's going to excel. Caleb Williams and

1032
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:55,520
Speaker 2: he's got no one in his face and this type

1033
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:57,960
Speaker 2: of matchup, but they will be blitzing him. They will

1034
00:47:57,960 --> 00:48:00,200
Speaker 2: be having Max Crosby come off the edge either he

1035
00:48:00,239 --> 00:48:01,000
Speaker 2: wants to line up on.

1036
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:02,480
Speaker 3: It'll just be different to me.

1037
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:05,400
Speaker 2: So I can't help but be a little weary of

1038
00:48:05,400 --> 00:48:08,319
Speaker 2: this Bear's team coming off such a huge win, young team,

1039
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:11,279
Speaker 2: now on the road against a Raiders team that got embarrassed,

1040
00:48:11,440 --> 00:48:15,719
Speaker 2: and once again it's another pro spot. The pros are

1041
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:18,360
Speaker 2: backing this Raiders team. The public very heavy on this

1042
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:22,320
Speaker 2: Bears team. So I won't it's not a game. I'm unfortunate,

1043
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:24,040
Speaker 2: right it was really about betting the number, like plus

1044
00:48:24,080 --> 00:48:26,440
Speaker 2: one and a half. There's still one or two out there.

1045
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:28,480
Speaker 2: I think you just have to grab that for this matchup.

1046
00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:31,360
Speaker 2: Is this kind of making our contest? Probably not, but

1047
00:48:31,400 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 2: I do. I do really like this spot for this

1048
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:37,799
Speaker 2: Raiders team that you know has looked bad. I'm not

1049
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:41,120
Speaker 2: gonna not not gonna deny the public sediment, but I

1050
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:43,440
Speaker 2: think they're not as bad as people perceive right now.

1051
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 2: They're not three points worse than this Bears team, which

1052
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 2: is that's what this line is saying.

1053
00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:52,719
Speaker 1: Listen, for all I know, that's stat about the Bears historically,

1054
00:48:52,800 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 1: could be a Mike Phipps, Vince Evans Bob Avellini stat.

1055
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:01,839
Speaker 3: Since twenty eighteen. That stat, that's what it's.

1056
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 1: That's too bad, do you know, because do you know

1057
00:49:04,640 --> 00:49:05,479
Speaker 1: who those guys are?

1058
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 3: No? Do they flay? In World War One?

1059
00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:12,560
Speaker 1: That might have been Sid Luckman who also still maybe

1060
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:16,320
Speaker 1: until Kayler Brims can prove it the greatest quarterback in

1061
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 1: the history of the Chicago Bears from the nineteen forties.

1062
00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:22,680
Speaker 1: All right, Simon, biggest bets.

1063
00:49:23,400 --> 00:49:25,400
Speaker 3: Well, let's get to another game. We didn't talk to that.

1064
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 3: We'll have to.

1065
00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:27,960
Speaker 1: Oh, get okay, I don't have it on my list.

1066
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 1: Tell me Dallas.

1067
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:33,360
Speaker 2: We'd ever talked about their plus seven. It's no different

1068
00:49:33,520 --> 00:49:36,000
Speaker 2: than us taking Cleveland last week.

1069
00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:36,719
Speaker 3: It really is not.

1070
00:49:37,000 --> 00:49:41,360
Speaker 2: You're getting a seven point dog at home in the

1071
00:49:41,400 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 2: first couple weeks of the season, and we've all seen

1072
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:46,680
Speaker 2: that stat, right like those last couple of years, these

1073
00:49:46,719 --> 00:49:49,320
Speaker 2: dogs in this exact spot, it's been very profitable.

1074
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:51,040
Speaker 3: And I don't know about you.

1075
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:55,680
Speaker 2: My only fear is it's Lafleor like he has own Dallas.

1076
00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:58,480
Speaker 2: I think it's some crazy stat like they're five and

1077
00:49:58,520 --> 00:50:01,560
Speaker 2: ohero against the spread or straight up against this Dallas team.

1078
00:50:01,560 --> 00:50:03,560
Speaker 3: And my biggest memory is Chad we did.

1079
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:05,880
Speaker 2: Me and Chad did a live party with all of

1080
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:09,040
Speaker 2: our listeners and the game we bet on was the

1081
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:11,839
Speaker 2: Green Bay Packers is seven point seven half point dog

1082
00:50:12,600 --> 00:50:16,799
Speaker 2: in the playoffs. It was over five minutes into that game,

1083
00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:20,320
Speaker 2: so I will put that out there right now. Dallas

1084
00:50:20,360 --> 00:50:22,240
Speaker 2: gets owned by Green Bay. If you want to avoid

1085
00:50:22,239 --> 00:50:25,400
Speaker 2: this one, totally get it. But this is another undervalued

1086
00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 2: Dak spot where I love Dak in these exact spots

1087
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:30,160
Speaker 2: when he's ever, he's a big dog. Dak tends to

1088
00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:33,360
Speaker 2: cover because he's so offensively gifted, and they have so

1089
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:35,480
Speaker 2: many injuries on the Cowboys again not a again I'm

1090
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:37,640
Speaker 2: going to bang the table for but I just want

1091
00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:39,520
Speaker 2: to read the stats because it is so important about

1092
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:41,399
Speaker 2: what Cleveland did last week. Is a big home dog

1093
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:44,640
Speaker 2: and the same exact spot here, So seven point home

1094
00:50:44,680 --> 00:50:48,680
Speaker 2: dog through games one and nine when there's there exact spot,

1095
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:51,200
Speaker 2: So they're a big home dog more than seven points

1096
00:50:51,280 --> 00:50:51,640
Speaker 2: or more.

1097
00:50:52,120 --> 00:50:54,120
Speaker 3: They're nineteen one and two in the last three years

1098
00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:55,040
Speaker 3: in this exact spot.

1099
00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:58,080
Speaker 2: Oh my god, And go back further, because I know

1100
00:50:58,239 --> 00:51:01,839
Speaker 2: Chad hates going back further since twenty twenty thirty eight

1101
00:51:01,840 --> 00:51:02,359
Speaker 2: ten and two.

1102
00:51:03,520 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 1: I don't mind twenty twenty. I don't mind anything. You

1103
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:07,320
Speaker 1: don't mind twenty fifteen.

1104
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:10,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, you hate twenty eighteen apparently too. But I'm just

1105
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:14,080
Speaker 2: saying like this is this is a real trend in

1106
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:17,440
Speaker 2: the modern era that is carried weight here that the

1107
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 2: rules have changed that have benefited these high powered, great

1108
00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:24,759
Speaker 2: quarterbacks on these offenses. But the public Betsy's lines up

1109
00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:26,360
Speaker 2: too much when you get good value of these dogs.

1110
00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:29,400
Speaker 2: That's really what that keeps telling me. So hold your nose.

1111
00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:32,160
Speaker 2: If you can still get the plus seven, go grab it.

1112
00:51:32,760 --> 00:51:34,880
Speaker 2: I'm praying this is six and a half so we

1113
00:51:34,880 --> 00:51:37,120
Speaker 2: don't have to put in a contest, but because of

1114
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:40,680
Speaker 2: that number, I have to do it. And I really,

1115
00:51:40,760 --> 00:51:43,320
Speaker 2: really really trust Dak when he's a big dog in

1116
00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:45,560
Speaker 2: the spot. In the last one, I'm a sucker for

1117
00:51:45,600 --> 00:51:47,400
Speaker 2: this game. Miami's minus two and a half against this

1118
00:51:47,480 --> 00:51:50,080
Speaker 2: Jets team. This is an zero to three Miami team

1119
00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 2: at home, and I know the trends actually hate this

1120
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:55,120
Speaker 2: team in the spot like they're actually terrible in primetime.

1121
00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:56,600
Speaker 3: Tear two has been terrible.

1122
00:51:56,320 --> 00:51:59,200
Speaker 2: At prime time and at home, but he just needs

1123
00:51:59,200 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 2: to win by a field goal against his Jets team

1124
00:52:01,000 --> 00:52:03,880
Speaker 2: for his first one of the season. I can't overstate

1125
00:52:03,960 --> 00:52:05,440
Speaker 2: how big of a deal that is. Where it's like,

1126
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:07,919
Speaker 2: I know the Jets are just as desperate. They're owing

1127
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:10,160
Speaker 2: three as well, but I felt like they shot their

1128
00:52:10,160 --> 00:52:14,520
Speaker 2: shot last week and they fell short. Where Miami did

1129
00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:16,480
Speaker 2: as well against the Bills, but they never really were

1130
00:52:16,560 --> 00:52:18,239
Speaker 2: as close as this Jets team was right.

1131
00:52:18,239 --> 00:52:20,520
Speaker 3: They were never in a position that they simply got

1132
00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:20,879
Speaker 3: to stop.

1133
00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 2: They were gonna win that game that the Jets were,

1134
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:25,200
Speaker 2: So I can't believe it's still two and a half.

1135
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:27,320
Speaker 2: And I know some professionals who are on the Jets side,

1136
00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:29,880
Speaker 2: but their secondary of the Jets is so bad.

1137
00:52:30,040 --> 00:52:30,800
Speaker 3: This is how.

1138
00:52:30,640 --> 00:52:32,839
Speaker 2: Miami can beat teams. That's when the few teams they

1139
00:52:32,840 --> 00:52:35,440
Speaker 2: actually match up well. Again, so I have a model

1140
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:38,160
Speaker 2: to minus three. It's minus two and a half. I

1141
00:52:38,200 --> 00:52:39,560
Speaker 2: wanted to hear where you were at in this Miami

1142
00:52:39,560 --> 00:52:40,880
Speaker 2: game or you're not even thought about.

1143
00:52:40,640 --> 00:52:43,120
Speaker 1: It at all. I haven't thought about it. It's fair,

1144
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:49,400
Speaker 1: not interested, not interested at all. Give me your biggest bets.

1145
00:52:49,560 --> 00:52:50,600
Speaker 3: Big time playing.

1146
00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:54,560
Speaker 1: Just want to play. Every time he does another one.

1147
00:52:54,600 --> 00:52:57,560
Speaker 3: We thought he's made his all time best and look

1148
00:52:57,600 --> 00:52:59,480
Speaker 3: at this unbelievable.

1149
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:03,600
Speaker 2: Definitely definitely Rams started off with the Rams. I've put

1150
00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:06,040
Speaker 2: a decent amount of the Rams on the Bucks. I've

1151
00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:10,160
Speaker 2: taken a pretty large position by the time we get there,

1152
00:53:10,600 --> 00:53:12,719
Speaker 2: Uh probably gonna have a lot of money tied to

1153
00:53:12,760 --> 00:53:17,200
Speaker 2: the Charters money line, Houston's money line. Those are like

1154
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:22,160
Speaker 2: two spots I really like and probably have the Denvers

1155
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:24,319
Speaker 2: playing the Cincinnati at Home probably will have Denver's money

1156
00:53:24,320 --> 00:53:25,880
Speaker 2: line thrown there as well. So if you're looking for

1157
00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:28,719
Speaker 2: really chalky money line bets, doing a lot of those

1158
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:29,800
Speaker 2: with those type of teams.

1159
00:53:29,840 --> 00:53:30,560
Speaker 3: But yeah, my.

1160
00:53:30,480 --> 00:53:35,040
Speaker 2: Straight up bets probably gonna end up with it being Chiefs, Rams,

1161
00:53:35,600 --> 00:53:37,840
Speaker 2: and uh Bucks as my three biggest bets.

1162
00:53:38,040 --> 00:53:39,880
Speaker 1: Wow, Chiefs. Interesting.

1163
00:53:40,040 --> 00:53:41,319
Speaker 3: I know it's just about the three.

1164
00:53:41,520 --> 00:53:43,839
Speaker 2: Like the three, you give me the three, I'm gonna

1165
00:53:43,880 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 2: keep betting pretty heavy into it.

1166
00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:47,160
Speaker 3: I just get help myself, all right.

1167
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:55,040
Speaker 1: Our money line round Robin, Underdog Parlay. My dog blocks

1168
00:53:55,239 --> 00:53:59,360
Speaker 1: your dog, Your dog blocks my dog. I think we

1169
00:53:59,440 --> 00:54:04,319
Speaker 1: gotta go Chiefs. I think we gotta go Bucks. Yeah,

1170
00:54:04,680 --> 00:54:06,480
Speaker 1: I think if we can get the Raiders plus one

1171
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:08,600
Speaker 1: and a half, can we put that in? Is that

1172
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:10,200
Speaker 1: the fair.

1173
00:54:11,920 --> 00:54:13,800
Speaker 3: You know you got? You love Atlanta? They're plus?

1174
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:17,480
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Atlanta. Then who's laught, who's left?

1175
00:54:18,440 --> 00:54:19,480
Speaker 2: I mean, I feel like we have to do it

1176
00:54:19,520 --> 00:54:21,000
Speaker 2: every week as long as there are a big number

1177
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:22,040
Speaker 2: plus one eighty five.

1178
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:24,000
Speaker 3: Carolina Panthers Panthers.

1179
00:54:24,280 --> 00:54:28,120
Speaker 2: I know it's sick and we're going against some respected

1180
00:54:28,160 --> 00:54:31,200
Speaker 2: money here, but I just Drake may show it to me,

1181
00:54:31,320 --> 00:54:34,000
Speaker 2: show me, like people are throwing these stats out after

1182
00:54:34,040 --> 00:54:38,040
Speaker 2: you beat up throwing the ball against Miami Vegas and uh,

1183
00:54:38,160 --> 00:54:41,120
Speaker 2: you know last week against Pittsburgh. I know he lit

1184
00:54:41,160 --> 00:54:43,440
Speaker 2: it up, but it's like, show me, Drake, May, like,

1185
00:54:43,520 --> 00:54:46,480
Speaker 2: let's see you do it again against another bad defense

1186
00:54:46,520 --> 00:54:47,479
Speaker 2: and actually win a game.

1187
00:54:47,560 --> 00:54:50,400
Speaker 3: So I'll take that plus one eighty five with Panthers.

1188
00:54:50,040 --> 00:54:59,759
Speaker 1: For the favorites Parlay Bills, Lions, Chargers, Rams.

1189
00:55:00,480 --> 00:55:01,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, well the Rams.

1190
00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:02,600
Speaker 1: Who's the fifth?

1191
00:55:03,480 --> 00:55:06,520
Speaker 2: Texans are Denver. I just I'm like, I'm really into

1192
00:55:06,560 --> 00:55:08,799
Speaker 2: those both The's okay.

1193
00:55:09,239 --> 00:55:19,960
Speaker 1: All right? Survivor bills.

1194
00:55:20,600 --> 00:55:22,640
Speaker 3: So we are we not thinking we're just going super

1195
00:55:22,680 --> 00:55:24,400
Speaker 3: lazy and taking bills? Are week? Are we going to

1196
00:55:24,480 --> 00:55:26,920
Speaker 3: try to be cute and go go Houston.

1197
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:31,239
Speaker 1: I've been thinking about it, like, who are we gonna.

1198
00:55:30,840 --> 00:55:31,640
Speaker 3: This is the spot?

1199
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:33,319
Speaker 2: We have an zero and three Houston team that could

1200
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:36,200
Speaker 2: easily be three and oh at home against the Tennessee

1201
00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:39,200
Speaker 2: team that we both agree are lost beyond.

1202
00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:41,280
Speaker 1: Law and cam Wore popped up on the injured list.

1203
00:55:41,640 --> 00:55:42,280
Speaker 3: Did he really?

1204
00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:44,160
Speaker 1: I thought I heard that somewhere interesting.

1205
00:55:44,200 --> 00:55:44,879
Speaker 3: Well, that makes sense.

1206
00:55:45,040 --> 00:55:46,360
Speaker 2: I've seen a couple of books move the seven and

1207
00:55:46,360 --> 00:55:48,360
Speaker 2: a half, which blew me away, because again, this is

1208
00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:51,279
Speaker 2: another spot where you have if you're betting, you have

1209
00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:52,080
Speaker 2: to bet Tennessee.

1210
00:55:52,280 --> 00:55:53,479
Speaker 1: All right, let's get cute.

1211
00:55:53,560 --> 00:55:55,280
Speaker 3: Let's take the Texans, good Texans.

1212
00:55:55,520 --> 00:55:55,960
Speaker 1: I like it.

1213
00:55:56,080 --> 00:55:58,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it too, because it's like the perfect

1214
00:55:58,480 --> 00:56:01,960
Speaker 2: spot and it's just like we did with Denver and Cowboys.

1215
00:56:02,000 --> 00:56:04,200
Speaker 2: Like I'm so glad that you took bad teams. Never

1216
00:56:04,239 --> 00:56:05,600
Speaker 2: have to take them again the rest of the year.

1217
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:10,359
Speaker 1: All right, sharp versus square? I won last week. I'm

1218
00:56:10,360 --> 00:56:11,880
Speaker 1: gonna take the Niners.

1219
00:56:12,239 --> 00:56:15,800
Speaker 3: Wow minus three or minus.

1220
00:56:15,680 --> 00:56:18,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, minus three? I can get a minus three at

1221
00:56:18,960 --> 00:56:19,440
Speaker 1: hard rock back.

1222
00:56:20,239 --> 00:56:21,400
Speaker 3: I guess I can't do Bucks.

1223
00:56:21,480 --> 00:56:24,920
Speaker 1: I did them as my right because I thought about

1224
00:56:24,920 --> 00:56:26,640
Speaker 1: doing the Falcons, but I can't get him at three.

1225
00:56:26,680 --> 00:56:28,359
Speaker 1: I thought about doing the Chargers, but I did them

1226
00:56:28,360 --> 00:56:28,759
Speaker 1: for chat.

1227
00:56:28,760 --> 00:56:32,400
Speaker 2: Say I'll plant my flag. I guess I'll go with

1228
00:56:34,480 --> 00:56:35,920
Speaker 2: I guess I'll go with the Rams.

1229
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:39,400
Speaker 1: I like it minus three them up.

1230
00:56:39,440 --> 00:56:41,319
Speaker 3: I have to fade this Colt team. It's just too

1231
00:56:41,360 --> 00:56:41,839
Speaker 3: much love.

1232
00:56:42,520 --> 00:56:44,400
Speaker 1: So it looks to me like the games we're going

1233
00:56:44,480 --> 00:56:48,840
Speaker 1: to recap on Sunday. Chargers minus six and a half

1234
00:56:50,560 --> 00:56:56,759
Speaker 1: looks like we'll do the Bucks plus three and a half.

1235
00:56:57,680 --> 00:56:59,239
Speaker 1: You know, if Atlanta is at two and a half,

1236
00:56:59,320 --> 00:57:02,879
Speaker 1: we'll have a converse against Mariota. We'll see how the

1237
00:57:02,880 --> 00:57:05,680
Speaker 1: Lions are doing. But we like them right now. The

1238
00:57:05,800 --> 00:57:08,719
Speaker 1: Rams minus three and a half, the Niners minus three,

1239
00:57:08,800 --> 00:57:11,319
Speaker 1: Chiefs plus two and a half. I think those are

1240
00:57:11,360 --> 00:57:13,080
Speaker 1: our top candidates. And then we got it with just

1241
00:57:13,200 --> 00:57:16,560
Speaker 1: based on how lines are moving and what injuries we're seeing. Yeah, okay,

1242
00:57:17,960 --> 00:57:20,600
Speaker 1: all right. This has been Sharper Square, part of the

1243
00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:23,400
Speaker 1: Volume podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square

1244
00:57:23,440 --> 00:57:26,520
Speaker 1: YouTube on Sunday morning at a leg well, we'll be

1245
00:57:26,520 --> 00:57:28,880
Speaker 1: back on Sunday morning. We will be back at Sharper

1246
00:57:28,920 --> 00:57:32,439
Speaker 1: Square YouTube on Sunday morning as you easdrop on an

1247
00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:36,640
Speaker 1: intimate conversation between me and Simon in which we will panic,

1248
00:57:37,360 --> 00:57:42,680
Speaker 1: make utterly human decisions, and regret the rest of the day.

1249
00:57:43,320 --> 00:57:45,520
Speaker 1: Then we will be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday

1250
00:57:45,600 --> 00:57:48,440
Speaker 1: night after the late afternoon games seven thirty ish p

1251
00:57:48,560 --> 00:57:52,240
Speaker 1: and Eastern Live to recap all the misery, watch or

1252
00:57:52,240 --> 00:57:54,760
Speaker 1: listen on YouTube like this video, subscribe to the channel.

1253
00:57:54,760 --> 00:57:57,440
Speaker 1: Also Dallas from Spotify, Apple Pops where we get your pods,

1254
00:57:57,680 --> 00:58:00,440
Speaker 1: rate review, subscribe, leave this five stars, say whatever you want.

1255
00:58:00,520 --> 00:58:03,200
Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift. Until next time, I Love you,

1256
00:58:10,080 --> 00:58:10,480
Speaker 1: mm hmm