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Speaker 1: Live from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg sound On

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Speaker 1: talking about a huge issue here is investment in marginalized communities.

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Speaker 1: They want to construct this package and cherry pick what

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Speaker 1: they like what they don't like. China is surging power

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Speaker 1: with major investments. Bloomberg sound On, the insiders, the influencers,

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Speaker 1: the insids, fighting Thomas again and again that he will

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Speaker 1: unite the country. Who do you think Biden has to

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Speaker 1: watch in terms of moderate defectors? Infrastructure has always been

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Speaker 1: by chartist Bloomberg sound On on Bloomberg Radio. I'm Rick

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Speaker 1: Davis and coming up on the show today we talked

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Speaker 1: to Dr Jonathan Javitts, CEO of Nerex on the coronavirus

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Speaker 1: vaccine news. I'm Rick Davis, along with my fellow Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: political contributor Genie Shawn Zano. And joining us today on

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Speaker 1: the panel is Dr Jonathan Javitts, the CEO of nerre

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Speaker 1: X and adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine

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Speaker 1: UH Johns Hopkins has been one of the organizations in

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Speaker 1: the forefront on the battle of coronavirus h Thank you

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Speaker 1: very much Dr Javits for joining us today and we've

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Speaker 1: got news that today was a big day in the

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Speaker 1: coronavirus battle, but a little step backwards. Uh, the US

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Speaker 1: has put on pause the J and J vaccine. Can

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Speaker 1: you give us a sense as to what caused this

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Speaker 1: action and and what do you think the outcome of

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Speaker 1: this pause is going to be. Well, certainly I don't

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Speaker 1: have any knowledge of the inside regulatory conversation between jane

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Speaker 1: J and the f d A uh. And clearly you know,

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Speaker 1: jane J is a company that has always had a

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Speaker 1: total commitment to quality for over a hundred years. So

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Speaker 1: to pause and understand why certain uh on through the

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Speaker 1: events have occurred is natural. Sometimes it's prudent. Uh. At

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Speaker 1: the same time, you're talking about very rare events, events

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Speaker 1: that are far more rare of having unvaccinated people die

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Speaker 1: of COVID. Well, Dr, We've got actually some sound on

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Speaker 1: this from Dr Faucci today where he talks a little

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Speaker 1: bit about this issue of how rare it is and

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Speaker 1: uh and and and at the daily briefing at the

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Speaker 1: White House today, um uh he uh tried to address

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Speaker 1: the jan J vaccine and maybe UH, let's have some

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Speaker 1: sound on that. We want to get this worked out

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Speaker 1: as quickly as we possibly can. And that's why you

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Speaker 1: see the word pause. In other ways, you want to

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Speaker 1: hold off a bit and very well may go back

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Speaker 1: to that, maybe with some conditions or maybe not, but

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Speaker 1: we want to leave that up to the FDA and

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Speaker 1: the CDC to investigate this carefully. So I don't think

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Speaker 1: it was pulling the trigger too quickly. So doctor, if

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Speaker 1: I could continue on this, um, you know, the Biden

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Speaker 1: administration has had sort of a tricky relationship with the

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Speaker 1: J and J vaccine. First, we had the Emergent BioSolutions

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Speaker 1: problem in Baltimore with the manufacturing of the doses. H

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Speaker 1: JANJ has taken over that facility and we're on track

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Speaker 1: to get all these deliveries of Jane J doses. And

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Speaker 1: and I guess my question is, Um, does this lead

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Speaker 1: to UH maybe a lack of confidence? The point you

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Speaker 1: made just a minute ago about how it's far safer

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Speaker 1: than putting yourself at risk with the UH with the

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Speaker 1: COVID itself is I think very important. But where do

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Speaker 1: we go from here and sort of keeping the public

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Speaker 1: focused on the battle and getting vaccinated, well, getting vaccinated

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Speaker 1: is critical. The challenges no matter what we do, people

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Speaker 1: are going to keep getting COVID, and we need therapeutics

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Speaker 1: that will help rescue those people who do get COVID

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Speaker 1: despite the best attempts at vaccination. Jenny, let me you

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Speaker 1: into this because you know, we've seen um a lot

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Speaker 1: of momentum in the first hundred days of the Biden

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Speaker 1: administration on the massive amount of vaccines at the government's

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Speaker 1: ordered six million. Uh. It seems to me that this

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Speaker 1: should fall into sort of an asterisk. In other words,

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Speaker 1: the amount of J and J vaccine that was going

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Speaker 1: to be used in all the distributions of these vaccines

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Speaker 1: was a small amount compared to the overall six million.

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Speaker 1: What are you hearing on sort of where we go

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Speaker 1: from here and is this going to interrupt uh, the

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Speaker 1: administration's plan to get millions of people vaccinated each day? Well,

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Speaker 1: you and Dr Javitt, we're just discussing what I have

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Speaker 1: been hearing all day, which is this question, um, whether

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Speaker 1: this is an overabundance of caution or this is an

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Speaker 1: appropriate amount of caution if you will, for the reason

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Speaker 1: you Rick just mentioned, which is things like is this

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Speaker 1: going to impact vaccine hesitancy? Are we going to is

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Speaker 1: the public or at least portions of the that going

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Speaker 1: to lose more faith in the vaccine as a result

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Speaker 1: of this. So Dr Javitt I wanted to ask you that,

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Speaker 1: how how would you recommend as a public health expert

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Speaker 1: these agencies making these kinds of decisions. Obviously a very

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Speaker 1: tough discussion, but we're talking less than one in a million.

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Speaker 1: If it's six cases, and there you know that we're

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Speaker 1: hearing about. Do you think this is um How would

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Speaker 1: you recommend making this kind of decision in terms of

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Speaker 1: what the other risks are, like hesitancy. Well, clearly, hesitancy

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Speaker 1: is going to kill more Americans than any one in

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Speaker 1: a million risk of any vaccine. At the same time,

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Speaker 1: if we're seeing higher safety and I don't know that

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Speaker 1: we are, because I'm certainly not inside the data, but

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Speaker 1: if we're seeing higher safety with the MR and A

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Speaker 1: based vaccines that those from Fiser and Maderna and are

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Speaker 1: so far being seen with the viral based vaccines such

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Speaker 1: as Astrisennica and James j uh, then that might motivate

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Speaker 1: public health officials to focus on the m R and

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Speaker 1: A platform while we better understand what's going on with

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Speaker 1: the viral based vaccines. Dr javitts That's a really good point.

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Speaker 1: And President Biden address that today when he talked about

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Speaker 1: the amount of coronavirus vaccine that have been acquired other

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Speaker 1: than the Johnson, Johnson and others, and and we've got

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Speaker 1: some sound on that. I made sure we have six

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Speaker 1: hundred million doses of the MR not of either Johnson

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Speaker 1: and Johnson and or astrosenicin there's enough vaccine that is

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Speaker 1: basically a unquestionable for every single solitary America. So Dr

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Speaker 1: javits maybe just a go back into that a little bit. Uh,

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Speaker 1: what will public health officials do now in various states

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Speaker 1: who have the Johnson and Johnson vaccine teed up? Well,

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Speaker 1: they just uh set that aside and use whatever resources

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Speaker 1: they have on the Fiser and Maderna vaccines and and ultimately, um,

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Speaker 1: is there a set process to put back into the

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Speaker 1: distribution that Johnson and Johnson according to the CDC, Well,

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Speaker 1: it really comes from FDA, and FDA has the ability

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Speaker 1: to put both vaccines and therapeutics on pause and take

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Speaker 1: them off pause. I think the important thing to the

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Speaker 1: public to understand is the reason to keep pursuing the

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Speaker 1: viral based vaccines is at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: they may have broader coverage, and they may be more

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Speaker 1: potent against some of the variants than the original m

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Speaker 1: R and A vaccines that are very narrowly focused to

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Speaker 1: the strains of the virus that were available at the

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Speaker 1: time those vaccines were made. So it's important to keep

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Speaker 1: pursuing all fronts, just as it's important to keep pursuing

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Speaker 1: potent therapeutics for people who get COVID. Despite the best attempts,

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Speaker 1: we can make the vaccination. Dr you you brought up

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Speaker 1: the variants, and it's an interesting place to go. Um. Uh.

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Speaker 1: We've heard a lot of press about the UK, the Brazil,

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Speaker 1: the South Africa variant, and and and even in New

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Speaker 1: York City the reported cases are evidently sev of them

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Speaker 1: come now from the variants. Is there a concern in

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Speaker 1: the medical community that the variants could lead to uh

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Speaker 1: I guess um a reinfection at the at the for

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Speaker 1: people who have already had coronavirus. Uh there's great concern

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Speaker 1: about that. You've already seen some reinfections, and that's why

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Speaker 1: many people are still advising masks, are still advising social

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Speaker 1: distancing EVE in vaccinated people because we don't know how

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Speaker 1: far these variants will go in terms of being able

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Speaker 1: to circumvent the vaccines, especially those m R and A

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Speaker 1: vaccines that were only effective against the spike protein that

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Speaker 1: was available when the vaccines were developed. Could we see

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Speaker 1: a process doctor that would indicate a need for like

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Speaker 1: a booster vaccine at some point if the variants get

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Speaker 1: to the point where they're affecting the public at large.

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Speaker 1: I think most of the public health world and the

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Speaker 1: vaccine development world is expecting exactly that process to happen,

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Speaker 1: just as each year the vaccine that's developed against the

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Speaker 1: seasonal flu is different from the previous year based on

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Speaker 1: what we see with the evolution of the flu virus.

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Speaker 1: These viruses will continue to evolve, and unless our defenses

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Speaker 1: evolved with them, our defenses will be circumvented. Genie um.

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Speaker 1: We've seen a lot of news today from Michigan where

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Speaker 1: Governor Whittmer has put more restrictions and workplaces because of

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Speaker 1: the rising numbers of UM cases in her state. Uh.

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Speaker 1: How much of a political issue does this become for

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Speaker 1: the Biden administration where one of their key states, Michigan,

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Speaker 1: is under duress the epicenter of this latest surge. As

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Speaker 1: you mentioned, she requested additional vaccines that she was pushed

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Speaker 1: back from the White House. My understanding is she got

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Speaker 1: a hundred and sixty doses of the J and J

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Speaker 1: for college and university students, in particular these transient populations

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Speaker 1: that it's hard to get too doses in. But now

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Speaker 1: she's not going to be able to use that. So

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Speaker 1: I think this does raise real concerns for the White House. Politically,

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Speaker 1: They've wanted to appear like they're um, they're being fair

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Speaker 1: in terms of how they're distributing these but it is

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Speaker 1: a real challenge for the White House because this surge

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Speaker 1: is very serious in Michigan. DR do you think these

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Speaker 1: kinds of tactics that Governor Whitmore's using in Michigan can

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Speaker 1: help slow the virus to the point where we can

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Speaker 1: catch up with the vaccination process. But there's no question

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Speaker 1: that social distancing, that masking, that closing close contact events,

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Speaker 1: whether it's restaurants, bars, who are we're parties UH, slows

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Speaker 1: viral transmission. It's been effectively implemented in many localities. UH.

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Speaker 1: And at the same time, it's it's critical to get

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Speaker 1: the vaccination program under way. You know, we shouldn't forget

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Speaker 1: that about ten years ago Princeton University took the risk

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Speaker 1: of using an experimental dr JNS. I'm afraid we have

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Speaker 1: to we have to move on. Thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for being with us today and giving us this informative response.

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Speaker 1: UH and UH. Coming up, we're gonna hear from John

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Speaker 1: set of dealis UH to talk a little bit about Afghanistan.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Sound On on Bloomberg Radio. Thanks Jarlie.

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Speaker 1: I'm Rick Davis, along with my fellow Bloomberg Politics contributor

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Speaker 1: genius Shawn's they Know and joining us in this segment

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Speaker 1: is Uh. John Side leads political geopolitical strategist at Trilogy

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Speaker 1: part Advisors and a diplomatic consultant to the Department of State. John,

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Speaker 1: We've had some big news out of the Biden administration

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Speaker 1: today on Afghanistan. Uh. The White House hasn't formally announced,

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Speaker 1: I don't think, but is withdraw of military forces by

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Speaker 1: September eleven, anniversary of nine eleven, is seems to be

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Speaker 1: in the making. What's your sense of this policy decision

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Speaker 1: and what is the foreign policy community today saying about this? Well,

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Speaker 1: first of all, thanks for having me in the program. Rick,

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Speaker 1: it's a pleasure to be with you and your Bloomberg team. Uh.

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Speaker 1: This is I think, unfortunately a very unclear policy, and

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Speaker 1: I won't put the burden just on President Biden. I

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Speaker 1: think it does go back to President from to a

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Speaker 1: certain degree, and that's because I think if you ask

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Speaker 1: the average American why the U. S. Military is still

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Speaker 1: in a position to engage in combat with the Taliban

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Speaker 1: twenty years after the September eleventh attacks of Americans, won't

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Speaker 1: have a good answer. And that's because no administration has

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Speaker 1: given the American people a good answer. We're doing it

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Speaker 1: simply because withdrawal is seen as a a default, unwelcome

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Speaker 1: and unacceptable position. But it's very challenging for any administration

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Speaker 1: to be able to demonstrate both to our nemesses in

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Speaker 1: Beijing and in Moscow that the United States will stay

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Speaker 1: by its commits to achieve a durable peace when it

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Speaker 1: commits to do so, as it has in Afghanistan, and

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Speaker 1: also to demonstrate to our allies and partners and even

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Speaker 1: under difficult circumstances, we will be steadfast in our mission.

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Speaker 1: And so that credibility is key in the international farm

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Speaker 1: poler sea landscape. But it doesn't make a good domestic politics,

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Speaker 1: especially when the Biden administration, I think is so singularly

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Speaker 1: focused on economic issues. Um, it will be interesting to

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Speaker 1: see how they explain the basis for continuing the presence

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Speaker 1: in Afghanistan beyond the original made deadline. Yeah, John, I

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Speaker 1: mean it's pretty obvious that the Biden administration is prioritized

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Speaker 1: COVID and the economic recovery due to that, and we

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Speaker 1: commenting about this apparent planned to withdraw troops and their

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Speaker 1: focus seems to be very uh much on ensuring uh

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Speaker 1: safety for Afghan women and minorities that are risk We

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Speaker 1: have sound on that. The President has been consistent in

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Speaker 1: his view that uh, there the the there is no

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Speaker 1: viable end to the war, military viable end to the

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Speaker 1: war in Afghanistan. He's had that view for some time now,

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Speaker 1: and he has to make decis through the prism of

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Speaker 1: what's in the interests of the national security of the

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Speaker 1: United States. Genie, I want to bring you in on

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Speaker 1: this because, um, as John mentioned, there's been a quite

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Speaker 1: a bit of a political football with Afghanistan since the

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Speaker 1: war began twenty years ago, and um we've heard a

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Speaker 1: lot of negativity on Capitol Hill that seems to be unifying, uh,

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Speaker 1: the bipartisanship around UH negativity around this policy. Mitch McConnell

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Speaker 1: has been critical about it. UH. Senator Menendez and read

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Speaker 1: to Democratic senators in leadership positions on foreign policy national

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Speaker 1: security express concern. UH, Who's he trying to make happy

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Speaker 1: with this decision? I think it's going to be very

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Speaker 1: hard to make anybody happy. UM. You know, you do see,

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Speaker 1: um a sort of strange bedfellows. The Republicans have been

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Speaker 1: split on this issue. UM. We saw Jim Inhoff come

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Speaker 1: out today UM and say, you know, of course nobody

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Speaker 1: wants a forever war. Um. But he also says he's consistent.

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Speaker 1: He said that any withdrawal must be conditions based. And

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Speaker 1: with this decision, of course, the Biden administration has decided

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Speaker 1: that condition based withdrawal is something that they are just

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Speaker 1: not going to accept anymore because it gets us in

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Speaker 1: these rever wars. And then you look. He was also

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Speaker 1: criticized by Senator Jean Shackeen, a moderate Democrat from New Hampshire,

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Speaker 1: on this So I think it's created some strange bedfellows.

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Speaker 1: And John I just wanted to ask you on this

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Speaker 1: conditions based withdrawal approach that has been in practice for

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Speaker 1: twenty years. They've now decided to move away from that.

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Speaker 1: What are the dangers of moving away from you now

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Speaker 1: there's no conditions, we will withdraw regardless. What are the

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Speaker 1: dangers of that? Well, it all depends on what Taliban

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Speaker 1: leaders are thinking, Genie, And you know, I first they

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Speaker 1: threatened to re engage in combat operations against American troops

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Speaker 1: if we stay beyond the original May one deadline. They

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Speaker 1: may decide to wait it out a few more months,

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Speaker 1: because now that we've announced another deadline September eleven, they

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Speaker 1: may say, well, let's just enjoy the next three months

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Speaker 1: of quietude and you know, military practice and drills over

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Speaker 1: the summer, and if there are still Americans here, will

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Speaker 1: go after them. But when the Americans withdraw, we'll just

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Speaker 1: take over the Afghan government, will take on the Afghan military,

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Speaker 1: and we will ascertain that there really is no American

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Speaker 1: credibility and in staying for the fight. And I think

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Speaker 1: that's going to be the real danger here. I don't

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Speaker 1: need someone to explain to the American people why Afghan

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Speaker 1: women's rights and minority rights are in the U s

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Speaker 1: national interest when we have our own domestic issues to

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Speaker 1: contend with first of all, and secondly, the Talibant knows

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Speaker 1: that the Americans are leaving. They're telling all of the

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Speaker 1: Afghan citizens you can rely on your American friends and

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Speaker 1: supporters and defenders intil September and after that we take

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Speaker 1: over the country. So they're essentially setting the terms of

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Speaker 1: the future of Afghan governance. And it's very very few

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Speaker 1: people that believe that the Afghan military is in a

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Speaker 1: unified and cohesive enough structure or to be able to

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Speaker 1: defend the central government against the Taliban and against the

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Speaker 1: number of other terror groups and try tribal militias in

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Speaker 1: the country. I want to pick up where you left

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Speaker 1: off there. I think that's an interesting query, especially what

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Speaker 1: are the US foreign relations interests uh in in in

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Speaker 1: Afghanistan going forward? Um. I'm Rick Davis, and this is

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg broadcasting live from our nation's capital, Bloomberg to New York,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven Frio to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty to

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Speaker 1: the country Sirius XM General one nineteen and around the globe,

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg Radio dot com. This

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's sound on. I'm Rick Davis coming up. We

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Speaker 1: talked to our panel a little bit more about the

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Speaker 1: Biden plan for Afghanistan. I'm Rick Davis, along with my

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Speaker 1: fellow Bloomberg contributor Jeanie Schanzo, and we continue to have

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Speaker 1: a conversation with John Saliti's geopolitical strategists at Trilogy Advisors.

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Speaker 1: John has been just talking about some of the policy

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Speaker 1: uh prescriptions of the Afghan policy and the Biden administration.

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Speaker 1: And we were talking a little bit earlier about the

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Speaker 1: the priority that seems to be coming out of the

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Speaker 1: Biden policy, which is to somehow protect women and minorities

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Speaker 1: UH after our withdrawal UH. John, as I understand it,

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Speaker 1: Biden is even pledged to include women UH in the

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Speaker 1: peace talks that are scheduled for later this month in

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Speaker 1: Istanbul between the warring parties in Afghanistan. UM, you were

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Speaker 1: mentioning that you weren't sure how this strategy somehow is

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Speaker 1: compelling national interests for the US. Can you elaborate that

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Speaker 1: a little bit more? UH? To me, of course, Rick,

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Speaker 1: it seems rather self evident that defending women's rights and

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Speaker 1: minority rights in countries that are dominated by historic tribal

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Speaker 1: politics really is going to take us into a dark hole. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And we've already suffered tremendous losses of treasure and of

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Speaker 1: American lives in twenty years in Afghanistan. And I will

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Speaker 1: say the original reason for going into Afghanistan, I think

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Speaker 1: was very sound right, and that was to destroy the

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Speaker 1: Taliban government that harvard al Qaeda when they planned their

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Speaker 1: attacks against the United States and murdered three thousand Americans,

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Speaker 1: innocent Americans. But twenty years later, it's very difficult to

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Speaker 1: justify a so called threat from the Taliban against the

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Speaker 1: United States. There's really no threat from anywhere in Afghanistan

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Speaker 1: against any major interests of the United States, directly or indirectly. UM.

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Speaker 1: I think if one wants to argue that we want

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Speaker 1: to minimize, say, Iranian influence in Afghanistan, which has already

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Speaker 1: extended all the way to the west to Syria and

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Speaker 1: the Mediterranean seed, that's maybe a coaching argument one of course.

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Speaker 1: Another one is to prevent the establishment of any other

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Speaker 1: type of terror organizations in Afghanistan. But we can always

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Speaker 1: attack those some offshore platforms, either nearby bases in South Asia,

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Speaker 1: or from facilities in the Indian Ocean, or our bomber

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Speaker 1: fleet in the area, so we can always take any

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Speaker 1: terror organization threats to the United States. I will state

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Speaker 1: Rick that I think there are two compelling reasons that

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Speaker 1: nobody will talk about in public, and one of them

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Speaker 1: is the fact that Afghanistan may possess hundreds of billions,

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Speaker 1: if not a trillion dollars worth of rare earth minerals

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Speaker 1: that we're going to need for an increasingly technology based,

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Speaker 1: silicon based global economy, including electric vehicles, batteries, microprocessors, electronic devices.

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Speaker 1: All of those require rare earths, and the Chinese are

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Speaker 1: making a very very strong bid to be able to

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Speaker 1: mind those, extract those, and dominate the global rare earth industry.

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Speaker 1: The second one affects American society, and that is that

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Speaker 1: there are plants now in Afghanistan that are growing very

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Speaker 1: very rapidly and very easily that um drug trafficking organizations

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Speaker 1: can use to turn into methamphetamine into poison American society

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Speaker 1: and Western societies and other parts of the world. And

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Speaker 1: I think those are going to be the two great

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Speaker 1: threats that emanate from Afghanistan. As opposed to women's rights

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Speaker 1: and minority rights in a country that doesn't care about

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Speaker 1: either of those and will revert back to tribal politics

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Speaker 1: once the Americans are out in September. Well, you know, Genie,

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Speaker 1: maybe we can pick up on this because on this program,

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Speaker 1: we've had many conversations about the need to sharpen up

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Speaker 1: our supply chain in the US and make it less

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Speaker 1: dependent upon China. But the point that John just brings

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Speaker 1: up about the presence of rare earth in China, those

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Speaker 1: things that you know, help make uh cell phone batteries

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Speaker 1: and permanent batteries for wind turbines UH and UH and

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Speaker 1: weapons of war uh. Seems to me that would be

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Speaker 1: a compelling national interest to ensure that that we would

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Speaker 1: have access to those kinds of resources and not necessarily,

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Speaker 1: after all blood and treasure we've spent, turn them over

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Speaker 1: to China. That's right, and I'm really glad that John

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Speaker 1: just raised that because you know, if we think about it,

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Speaker 1: um Afghanistan's neighbor Pakistan, China has invested heavily in their

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Speaker 1: infrastructure there um in the billions of dollars UM, and

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Speaker 1: there is you know, it's hard to imagine that the

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Speaker 1: same investment doesn't move its way a little bit north.

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Speaker 1: So if the United States does leave, which it looks

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Speaker 1: like we will, at least militarily, you do leave that

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Speaker 1: that open for for China to move into. But one

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Speaker 1: question I had, um, John, just back to this issue

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Speaker 1: of national interest, and I think the ones you raised

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Speaker 1: are are very real. Um. You hear a lot from

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Speaker 1: people like Lynne Cheney and others about the resurgence of

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Speaker 1: the Taliban and potentially al Qaeda or the you know,

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Speaker 1: Taliban continuing not resurgence and re emerging al Qaeda in

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Speaker 1: the region, and that is long, obviously since two thousand

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Speaker 1: and one, been seen as a threat to the United States.

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Speaker 1: Is that no longer a threat in your mind? It's

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Speaker 1: a great question that you raised, Genie, and I think

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Speaker 1: most analysts will tell you that we don't really see

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Speaker 1: a credible threat to the United States out of Afghanistan

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Speaker 1: anytime in the near future as we faced in the

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Speaker 1: late nineties and in two thousand and one, and if

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Speaker 1: one were to arise, we don't need American troops living

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Speaker 1: in Afghanistan and being exposed and vulnerable to terror attacks

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Speaker 1: from Taliban and other organizations. And I mentioned earlier. We

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Speaker 1: constrict them from basis that we have in nearby friendly countries.

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Speaker 1: We have offshore platforms in Diego, Garcia, several thousand miles

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Speaker 1: south of India near Afghanistan, and other facilities that we

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Speaker 1: can use if we have to defend the United States.

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Speaker 1: So we have to defend our interests and our partners.

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Speaker 1: There are other ways of doing it than exposing hundreds,

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Speaker 1: if not thousands, of American soldiers to NonStop danger. And

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Speaker 1: the talent band is determined to eliminate the American presence

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Speaker 1: one way or the other. I hope not attacking our

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Speaker 1: troops again because we haven't really suffered many casualties in

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Speaker 1: the last year a year and a half. But that

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Speaker 1: could be a resurgence of violence may in September. But

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Speaker 1: I just don't see the compelling reason to prolong the

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Speaker 1: the presence of American forces in Afghanistan. Let me have

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Speaker 1: viable alternatives. John, I think I'm so glad you're giving

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Speaker 1: us a lot of time today because these are fascinating issues,

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Speaker 1: and I think after this break coming up, I want

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Speaker 1: to continue the conversation as it relates to UH China. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know, we've seen so much of this administration's first

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Speaker 1: hundred days focus on developing a China policy, trade, the economy,

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Speaker 1: human rights. Let's talk about where Afghanistan fits in that

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Speaker 1: China policy. This is Bloomberg. I'm Rick Davis. This is

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg sound On on Bloomberg Radio. Hi, I'm Rick Davis.

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Speaker 1: Along with my fellow Bloomberg Politics contributor Jeannie Shawn Zano

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Speaker 1: and also UH. Joining us has been John Cliti's He's

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Speaker 1: the geopolitical strategist at Trilogy Advisors and a diplomatic consultant

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Speaker 1: to the Department of State. We've been talking about Afghanistan

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Speaker 1: and the Biden administration's announcement that it will be withdrawing

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Speaker 1: forces by nine eleven one UH, the twentieth anniversary of

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Speaker 1: the attack on the Twin Towers. But we've been sort

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Speaker 1: of migrating that discussion John over to China. You've mentioned

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Speaker 1: that China has interests, you know, in the rarers in

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Speaker 1: Afghanistan and UH potentially problems associated with the drug trade there,

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Speaker 1: But we know China has invested tens of billions of

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Speaker 1: dollars also in the neighboring country in Pakistan through their

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Speaker 1: Belt and Road initiatives. So they're in the neighborhood looking

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Speaker 1: at Afghanistan as an opportunity. But a lot in the

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Speaker 1: lot of people in the Biden administrations seem to think

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Speaker 1: that they've got to untie their hands in Afghanistan in

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Speaker 1: order to pivot to the near pier competition with China. Uh,

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Speaker 1: do you think we have to isolate these these um

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Speaker 1: regional issues like that or or isn't part of our

433
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 1: approach to China making common cause in places like Afghanistan

434
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:30,919
Speaker 1: and Pakistan if it were doable, Rick, perhaps, But this

435
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 1: really goes back to the Obama administration's famous pivot to

436
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 1: the Pacific region, which was redubbed the Indo Pacific Region

437
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:41,640
Speaker 1: under the Trump administration. But if you recall, as President

438
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 1: Obama sought to unwind the United States not only from

439
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:48,640
Speaker 1: Afghanistan but also from Iraq very famously when we pulled

440
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 1: out our troops there and that led to the creation

441
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 1: of Islamic state in Syria and northern Iraq. There was

442
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 1: this concern that you would have, as Genie hinted before,

443
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 1: a possible refilling of Afghan territory with terror organizations. And

444
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 1: China in many ways has benefited from US policy in

445
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 1: Afghanistan over the last twenty years. If you think about

446
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 1: the fact that the U. S Military has been so

447
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,680
Speaker 1: heavily engaged in both Afghanistan and Iraq over the last

448
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 1: two decades, and that's really given China the operational space

449
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 1: to build its strength to become not only a formidable

450
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 1: military power, but especially a global economic colossus, where now

451
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 1: Chairman Chijin Pink directly challenges US global leadership on the

452
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 1: whole host of fronts. But there is also a very

453
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 1: interesting security component here, Rick Um. If you look at

454
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 1: the map of Asia, you'll see that western China, specifically

455
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 1: the Shinjiang region, where the Biden administration agrees with the

456
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 1: Trump administration that the Chinese government is committing genocide against

457
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 1: cultural genocide against millions of its Muslim minority members of

458
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 1: the weaker population in Western China. That area borders Pakistan, Tajikistan,

459
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 1: and a the sliver of Afghanistan, and so China has

460
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 1: very much benefited from American counter terrorism military operations in

461
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 1: Afghanistan that helped to constrain any type of anti Beijing

462
00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 1: radical Islamic fundamentalism in Western China. And I think one

463
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 1: concern that China may have now with the US withdrawal,

464
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 1: if it is complete in September, is the return of

465
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 1: potential instability and the rise of anti Chinese radical Islamism

466
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 1: coming out of Afghanistan, possibly out of Pakistan, into Tajikistan,

467
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 1: and most of all into Shinjang. So I think China,

468
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 1: benefiting for the last twenty years, is looking somewhat concerned

469
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 1: about the potential for instability, even as it sees investment

470
00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 1: and economic opportunity. Jenny Um, We've talked quite a bit

471
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 1: on this program about the plight of the Wakers and

472
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 1: the Shinjan region and and its impact on the human

473
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 1: rights policies in the An administration. And we've had a

474
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,959
Speaker 1: lot of talk about the upcoming Olympics in China and

475
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 1: whether or not those should be put at risk because

476
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 1: of the human rights violations not just in the Shenjin

477
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 1: region but also in Hong Kong. And they're very muscular

478
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 1: approach that they've been taking towards Taiwan lately. What's your

479
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 1: sense of how that debate is going to play out

480
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 1: over the next few months. You're right, and we've talked

481
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 1: to several people of you know, who have had various

482
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 1: opinions on whether the United States and other Western allies

483
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 1: should you know, uh not be active in the Olympics.

484
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 1: I I am somebody who thinks and I know we

485
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,479
Speaker 1: heard from the Biden administration not that long ago on this.

486
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 1: I am somebody who thinks it would be the height

487
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 1: of folly for US to pull out of the Olympics

488
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 1: based on that. UM. We tried that with Carter. It

489
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 1: didn't go very well. I am not of the opinion

490
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 1: we should do that again. And I want to circle

491
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 1: back to this issue that you and John were just

492
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 1: talking about about the Weakers, because John, one of the

493
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:01,719
Speaker 1: things that you just reminded me of is there is

494
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 1: this terrorist Islamic terrorist UM radical movement among the Weakers,

495
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 1: the E T I M, the East Turkestan Islamic movement

496
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 1: that has been a real problem for China in that region,

497
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 1: and it was UM. One thing I've heard from from

498
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:23,959
Speaker 1: friends is that the Chinese were suspicious last year when

499
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 1: the United States removed the E T I M from

500
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 1: E T I M, excuse me, from the terrorism watch

501
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 1: list UM, and they fear I guess is the result

502
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:33,959
Speaker 1: of that is that the US might be using that

503
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 1: group to destabilize the area and China as a whole,

504
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 1: and that might be a reason we heard things like

505
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 1: CNN report in late December that China was willing to

506
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 1: pay nonstate actors to attack American at forces in Afghanistan.

507
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 1: So what is your thought on some of these theories

508
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 1: that are out there about the E. T I M

509
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 1: and also China's willingness to pay actors to get American

510
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 1: forces out of afghan Ston? Is there any truth to

511
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 1: any of this? UM. I can't tell you right now

512
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 1: that I have any verifiable information as to whether that

513
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 1: that latter point that you raise is accurate. I wouldn't

514
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 1: be surprised. Uh, this is what our adversaries due to us,

515
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 1: and you know, geopolitics is a very nasty game sometimes.

516
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 1: But I will say there is some historical background here

517
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 1: going back to the first term of the President George W.

518
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 1: Bush administration, and in the context of the September eleventh

519
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 1: announced a pullout of American forces from Afghanistan, when President

520
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 1: Bush was looking to build as widespread and as coherent

521
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 1: global counter terrorism alliance. One of the points that he

522
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 1: raised with the Chinese was the concern that the US

523
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 1: had at that time for these radical Islamist groups, especially

524
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 1: some of the weak or the militant Wager groups that

525
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 1: were engaged in terror operations against official Chinese targets in

526
00:32:56,640 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 1: Western China. And so the Bush administration help persuade China

527
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 1: to come on board the global counter terrorism alliance that

528
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 1: the US had built, at least tactically in exchange for

529
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 1: US support for Chinese actions to suppress weaker militant activities. Now,

530
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 1: that was never going to be a sort of an

531
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 1: open invitation to culturally destroy an entire people, which the

532
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 1: Chinese government has been doing for at least the last

533
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 1: five to eight years against the Wagers. But we cannot

534
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 1: say that there are clean hands, o Genie, And you're

535
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 1: absolutely right, there are actual weaker terror operations that had

536
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 1: got back probably several decades, but the Chinese have exploited

537
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 1: that terror fear in order to destroy an entire people.

538
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:42,240
Speaker 1: And the Olympics, I think is going to be a

539
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 1: very interesting issue. I think we're gonna be debating this

540
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 1: for many months to come. I don't know what the

541
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,280
Speaker 1: outcome will be, but the Beijing Olympics are going to

542
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 1: be a major issue for American and international debate for

543
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 1: for months to come. John, if I can follow up,

544
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 1: what do you think the policy that the US should

545
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 1: hold on the Beijing Olympics? Are we are we in?

546
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 1: Or are we out? One of the worst things about

547
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:07,719
Speaker 1: an Olympics boycott is you dash the dreams and hopes

548
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,960
Speaker 1: and lives of thousands, if not tens of thousands of

549
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 1: American athletes and their families, and those of our allied

550
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 1: countries really who have no responsibility and and you know,

551
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 1: no no dog in this fight, so to speak. I

552
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 1: think there are going to be a number of interesting

553
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 1: creative ways to engage in punitive actions against Beijing for

554
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 1: cultural genocide, against the Weakers, for its efforts to to

555
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:35,360
Speaker 1: swallow up hold Taiwan in the next several years, and

556
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 1: a whole host of other issues that you raised, including

557
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:43,800
Speaker 1: Hong Kong, that may include corporate and official boycotts of China.

558
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 1: Now the the corporate, of course, you can't enforce in

559
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 1: a free market economy like the United States, but I

560
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:52,359
Speaker 1: think you will see a near zero participation on an

561
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 1: official level by the Biden administration and perhaps state and

562
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 1: local governments, and to look to see what kind of

563
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:01,840
Speaker 1: strong signals can be send to send your China and

564
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:04,200
Speaker 1: to make it very clear the world and simply sitting

565
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:07,760
Speaker 1: by while it commits genocide. But the problem is China

566
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:11,279
Speaker 1: is so powerful and so secretive in its operations. If

567
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 1: we think about it realistically, it's not much the world

568
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 1: can do. If the Chinese Communist Party is determined to

569
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:20,959
Speaker 1: destroy an entire subculture, it's really not much we can do.

570
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 1: But we can send very strong diplomatic signals. And I

571
00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 1: think that will be the creative debate in the next

572
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:29,800
Speaker 1: nine months. Do you think John that the use of

573
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:33,840
Speaker 1: more aggressive use like in the Trump administration of sanctions.

574
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:37,040
Speaker 1: Trump used them in order to strengthen his hand around

575
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:40,600
Speaker 1: trade disputes, but here in human rights and other policy

576
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 1: decisions that the Biden administration has to exert. Should they

577
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:49,239
Speaker 1: be more aggressive with sanctions as it relates to things like, uh,

578
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:53,959
Speaker 1: these human rights violations? Uh? Incredibly. I don't think that's

579
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 1: going to be the hand of the Biden administration will

580
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 1: want to play. I think they'll be looking to reserve

581
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:02,799
Speaker 1: not only sanctions, but perhaps armed sales possibly are the

582
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,319
Speaker 1: types of tariffs and the like, and really to start

583
00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 1: to target the individuals around shij and Ping to put

584
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 1: the pressure on SI to relax many of China's aggressive policies.

585
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:13,759
Speaker 1: But I think we're going to be looking at the

586
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:18,760
Speaker 1: major strategic issues rick like Taiwan, Japan, and China's attack

587
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 1: on Japanese and Cak islands, on Hong Kong, on the

588
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 1: border skirmishes with India, and of course its efforts to

589
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:28,719
Speaker 1: swallow up the international waters of the South China Sea

590
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 1: and convert that into a Chinese lake in contravention of

591
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:36,359
Speaker 1: international law and freedom of navigation worldwide. So those are

592
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 1: going to be the strategic issues which will be looking

593
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 1: to engage in the most determined opposition to China as

594
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 1: opposed to human rights, which is really not much the

595
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:48,720
Speaker 1: world can do because done I can interrupted, his government

596
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:50,879
Speaker 1: has a complete lock. Thank you so much for your

597
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:52,919
Speaker 1: participation today's panel. You've made a great