1 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel Podcast. I'm Paul Swinge. You. 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Brahma Waits, each day 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for 4 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: the trading floor, find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple 6 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:17,959 Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,799 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. For months, a lot of economists 8 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:25,200 Speaker 1: and traders have been saying, it's just manufacturing. It is 9 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 1: a specific sector that is suffering specific pain. Today we 10 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 1: get data showing that a U S services gauge dropped 11 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:35,879 Speaker 1: to a three year low. A gauge of employment in 12 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:38,879 Speaker 1: the U S services sector fell into contraction for the 13 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:43,280 Speaker 1: first time since two thousand ten. This is beyond manufacturing. 14 00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 1: Joining us here, Lena Shilietieva in our senior US economist 15 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Economics, Joining us in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. 16 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 1: How concerned should we be so? Uh? Today's numbers a 17 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 1: clear sign that worries you know that we saw in 18 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 1: the manufacturing sector are spreading beyond into a broader economic activity. However, 19 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 1: I would question against you know, saying, Okay, this is 20 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:12,800 Speaker 1: a recession signal, it's not. You know, the sector is 21 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 1: still expanding, expanding although slower pace. You know. I think 22 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 1: this kind of number is comparable to what happened back 23 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 1: into thousands sixteen. Remember when we had China devaluation and 24 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,480 Speaker 1: a market route on the back of it, and that 25 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 1: affected business sentiment to quite a significant degree. But we 26 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 1: were not talking about recession. So we're not talking about 27 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 1: the recession now. We think the probability still remains relatively low. Elena, 28 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: when we saw the manufacturing side of the economy turned 29 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 1: negative and actually into contraction, I think a lot of 30 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 1: people felt like it was primarily driven by uncertainties associated 31 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 1: with the trade tensions. Is that you think that's also 32 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 1: impacting the service society economy as well? Uh? Sure, So 33 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 1: if you read some comments, you know, not only look 34 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 1: at the numbers, but if you read the comments in 35 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 1: the actual ism report, Uh, there's a lot of discussion 36 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 1: all across the manufacturing and non manufacturing industries about how 37 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 1: tariffs are impacting the businesses. So, but what I found 38 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:23,360 Speaker 1: very interesting in today's report actually is that, uh, some 39 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:27,399 Speaker 1: some people are talking about how they are substituting how 40 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 1: they are working to substitute some imports from China with 41 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 1: UH imports from other countries. So I think eventually this 42 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:39,919 Speaker 1: will work and we will be just okay. But right 43 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 1: now is just creating a lot of uncertainty. So how 44 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 1: much of a concern just sort of raise ahead of 45 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:50,080 Speaker 1: tomorrow's jobs number. I think it's a significant indicator, you know, 46 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 1: along with other labor market indicators. I think it's telling 47 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 1: us we will see another relatively weak number, but again 48 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:03,559 Speaker 1: not something that will be able to push the unemployment 49 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 1: rate higher. In fact, we expect the unemployment rate to 50 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 1: go down by attempts to three point six percent, so 51 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:15,119 Speaker 1: a one thirty five thousand number that we are forecasting 52 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 1: would be just enough to do that. So, given that 53 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 1: we are starting to see a little bit of weakness 54 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 1: creep into the consumer of the services side um and 55 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:28,400 Speaker 1: will certainly wait for the jobs data tomorrow, how do 56 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:31,080 Speaker 1: you think that the FED will react for the remainder 57 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 1: of this year? Interesting you mentioned that because we already 58 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 1: heard today after the week, same number, and you know 59 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 1: other indicators. We heard from UH Charlie Evans overnight he 60 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 1: was speaking in Madrid and he actually said that he's 61 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 1: still not convinced they need to act at the October meeting. 62 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 1: He thinks that fundamentals remain solid, but I think if 63 00:03:57,600 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 1: we continue to get weak data like we did today, 64 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 1: especially the unemployment Rade report, this will push the fits 65 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 1: And at the end of the months, let's say there 66 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 1: are some optimists out there saying, let's buy this deep. 67 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 1: We think that the market is going to turn around 68 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 1: and that either the feder will come in with stimulus 69 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 1: or we'll see strength from somewhere else where in the economy. 70 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:24,039 Speaker 1: Could we see strength, well, you know it's it's the consumer. 71 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:26,840 Speaker 1: We've been talking about it for quite some time, right, 72 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:30,359 Speaker 1: So that doesn't this directly feed into consumer spending? And 73 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 1: it isn't consumer spending essentially a lagging indicator, and employment 74 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 1: kind of procedes that it depends on how much wages grow, okay, 75 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 1: and how much will consumers feel optimistic about the outlook 76 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 1: and will they spend it. So we are heading into 77 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 1: a holiday season pretty soon, so we'll see how that 78 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 1: plays out. So that, like early indicators are saying that 79 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 1: the holiday season will be a good one. So, Lena, 80 00:04:56,279 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 1: are you guys at Bloomberg Economics in the camp that UM, 81 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 1: there could be a recession in or maybe just more 82 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 1: like the new normal, which might be one and a 83 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:10,280 Speaker 1: half to two growth, and that might be kind of 84 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 1: what we have. So we don't see a recession within 85 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 1: the next twelve months. We think the probability is relatively low. 86 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 1: We just published some research. Actually our recession indicator is 87 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:26,719 Speaker 1: that for the next twelve months, and we think that 88 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 1: we will see a significant slow down in the second 89 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 1: half of the year uh to something like one percent 90 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:34,920 Speaker 1: on average from two point six percent in the first 91 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:37,920 Speaker 1: half of the year. But that by no means means 92 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 1: recession is coming. I'm just trying to understand going forward. 93 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 1: It seems like the market is saying the federal reserve 94 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:50,080 Speaker 1: or cut rates it will be insufficient to fuel economic 95 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 1: growth real quick. That accurate, I think it is. I 96 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:58,039 Speaker 1: think you know, the market is thinking the FIT might 97 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:02,360 Speaker 1: not have enough ammunition to act. They will obviously do 98 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 1: what they can, but this might require some sort of 99 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: a fiscal stimulus. The chances I don't know. I cannot 100 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 1: talk about the chances of that, but it seems like 101 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:15,840 Speaker 1: that's what we need UM at this point. Elena Chila Tieva, 102 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:18,839 Speaker 1: thank you so much. Senior US economists for Bloomberg Economics, 103 00:06:18,880 --> 00:06:34,720 Speaker 1: joining us here on our Bloomberg Interactor broker studio. George Young, 104 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 1: partner and portfolio manager at Villary Funds, joins us to 105 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:41,680 Speaker 1: talk about volatility and trading in this market. Villary Funds 106 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:44,559 Speaker 1: they are based in the great City of New Orleans, 107 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:46,920 Speaker 1: but George joins us here live in our Bloomberg Interact 108 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,320 Speaker 1: their broker studio. So, George, I was just talking about, 109 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:51,480 Speaker 1: you know, these past couple of days, this week has 110 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:53,800 Speaker 1: just been you know, a sell off on some weekending 111 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:57,599 Speaker 1: economic news. How are you guys viewing the market right here. Well, 112 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:00,120 Speaker 1: we're long term investors and I think that's import and 113 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:02,279 Speaker 1: for people to keep in mind because this is not 114 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:04,520 Speaker 1: a short term event. It's not like going to the 115 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 1: casino where you need to cash out at the end 116 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:08,800 Speaker 1: of the day. So if you can put on some 117 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 1: blinders and look out into the future again, I'd like 118 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 1: to think that our investors are investing for retirement, for 119 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 1: specific goals, whether it's education for the kids, whatever it 120 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 1: may be. Uh, you need to look at the fact 121 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 1: that the economy is basically healthy. Yeah, there's some ripples 122 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 1: out there worried about the manufacturing index, But I think 123 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:29,880 Speaker 1: that is a short term indicator. Uh, when I say 124 00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 1: the economy is healthy, We've got good g d P numbers, 125 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 1: we've got low unemployment, we've got not overly strong valuations 126 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: in the stock market. So it's still attracted from a 127 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 1: pe base, especially in the light of the fact that 128 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: you've got one point six percent yields on the ten 129 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: year treasury. Got to keep all that in mind. So 130 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:50,920 Speaker 1: this is something people say, we're long term investors, buy 131 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:54,480 Speaker 1: and hold. The U S. Economy isn't going to collapse entirely. 132 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 1: It's a good time to just stay invested and stay 133 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 1: the course. What happened. And if someone is sixty four 134 00:08:02,440 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 1: years old, they're going to retire in the next three years, 135 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 1: and they want to know where should they be hiding 136 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 1: right now? You know, should they basically shift away from 137 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 1: all their stocks and just go to cash because there 138 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 1: is sort of an imminent crash being signaled by weakening 139 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 1: services and on the heels of manufacturing and then talk 140 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 1: of trade wars and forget about it. Well, I'll give 141 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 1: you two answers on that one. If you're sixty four 142 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 1: years old, that means that you're retiring possibly, but that 143 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:32,680 Speaker 1: doesn't mean you're going to die tomorrow. So you've got 144 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 1: to think that you've got another twenty years to live. 145 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:37,840 Speaker 1: And if that's going to happen on a statistical basis, 146 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 1: you've got to buy stocks one point six percent and 147 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 1: a government bond is not going to cut it. So 148 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 1: you really need to be prepared to invest for a 149 00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 1: longer term. And that's not going to be fun. But again, 150 00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:50,640 Speaker 1: it's very easy to look backwards and see what the 151 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:53,199 Speaker 1: cell signals were. Again, if you look back at the 152 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 1: fourth quarter of last year, a lot of people are remembering, oh, 153 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:59,440 Speaker 1: fourth quarter last year, that was a problem. We're entering 154 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 1: the fourth quarter or now October, i'm told is a 155 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 1: bad month. All those things are true, And I have 156 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 1: no aversion to a sixty four year old having a 157 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 1: certain amount in cash or certain amount in bonds. But 158 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 1: I think they've still got to have a preponderance in 159 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 1: stocks because that's what's going to keep them for the 160 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 1: long term. I'd say a different answer if you were 161 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 1: talking about an eighty year old. Life expectancy isn't as long. 162 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:23,040 Speaker 1: Different needs, different reaction to volatility. Uh. And there's one 163 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 1: of our old aphorism. Uh, no safe haven for capital 164 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:29,719 Speaker 1: or capitalists. So you've got to be a little cautious. 165 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 1: But again, you you enter the stock market assuming there's 166 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:35,800 Speaker 1: gonna be a certain amount of risk, and you have 167 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 1: to be willing to take that. So here we are, George, 168 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 1: ten plus years into this economic cycle. We have signs of, 169 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:46,080 Speaker 1: you know, a weakening economy, still growing in the US, 170 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 1: but but weakening. What are the sectors that you think 171 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:52,840 Speaker 1: that you're recommending to your clients that they pay attention to. Well, 172 00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: I think you've got good opportunities in technology. And again 173 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 1: technology dominates the S and P five. But one common 174 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 1: characteristic technologies whatever software, for instance, that you buy, you 175 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 1: as a user, tend to re up that same software, 176 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:09,960 Speaker 1: and so they've got very visible cash flow streams. The 177 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 1: other thing that's attractive as most technology companies have very 178 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:14,840 Speaker 1: little debt, and that's obvious the way that you get 179 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:18,559 Speaker 1: in trouble nowadays if you have too much debt, and 180 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:21,240 Speaker 1: as we all know with a lot of corporations, any 181 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:24,640 Speaker 1: debt that is on a company's books can be refinanced 182 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:28,040 Speaker 1: at these historically low rates. So I think technology is 183 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:30,440 Speaker 1: a good area to look at. I want to go 184 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:35,640 Speaker 1: back to the sort of age issues I'm having. My head, 185 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:38,000 Speaker 1: of course went on succeed four. I'm not going to 186 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 1: say it. I'm wondering, do you think then that, for 187 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 1: no reason, should people change their allocations? In other words, 188 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:49,079 Speaker 1: let's just say, I mean, should they reduce their allocations 189 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 1: to equities in a situation where they're needing to preserve 190 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 1: cash and focus on the income level, or should they 191 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:59,080 Speaker 1: look to stocks as the new income providers. I think 192 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:01,559 Speaker 1: that people need to understan and the total return concept, 193 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 1: and I think most people do that. As you shift, 194 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 1: and let's say we're talking about i RA, so for 195 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 1: the argument's sake, you don't have to worry about taxes. 196 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:11,040 Speaker 1: You can make that shift, and you should as you 197 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 1: move from let's say the sixty four year old to 198 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:15,280 Speaker 1: the eighty year old. The other thing to keep in 199 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:18,200 Speaker 1: mind is that if you do make an abrupt decision 200 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:22,640 Speaker 1: to liquidate your portfolio and go fifty into cash, what's 201 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:24,439 Speaker 1: going to be the sign that's going to tell you, Okay, 202 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:27,040 Speaker 1: now it's quote safe to get back in. It does 203 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:29,040 Speaker 1: not ring a bell. You never know when that's going 204 00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 1: to happen. So I think it's much better to adopt 205 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:36,600 Speaker 1: a constant um uh investment policy statement for yourself. Endowment 206 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 1: funds mutual funds have an investment policy statement and they 207 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:42,800 Speaker 1: adhere to those with good reason. So if you think 208 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 1: back about the fourth quarter of last year, think back 209 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:49,840 Speaker 1: to the first quarter of two thousand nine, when the 210 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 1: market was hitting loads, it's good that you would have 211 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,320 Speaker 1: stuck to your investment policy statement to maintain the proper 212 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:58,840 Speaker 1: asset allocation. Well, certainly people who stuck to their allocations 213 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 1: today in equities are actually going to be pleasantly surprised 214 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 1: because what looked like it was going to be a 215 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:07,480 Speaker 1: very down day has turned surprisingly positive with the nastac 216 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 1: opp nearly six tenths of a percent. George Young, thank 217 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:12,040 Speaker 1: you so much for being with us. George Young, portfolio 218 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:14,679 Speaker 1: manager of the Villary Balanced Fund, which trades under the 219 00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:35,000 Speaker 1: ticker v I l l X, joining us now. We 220 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:37,520 Speaker 1: are so happy to have Damien Sassaur Fixing come Strategistic 221 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 1: focused on the emerging markets for Bloomberg Intelligence and UH. 222 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:45,640 Speaker 1: I want to look first at Argentina because it's hundred 223 00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 1: year bonds that were sold just a couple of years ago, 224 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 1: trading at forty three cents in the dollar trading a 225 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:53,679 Speaker 1: par not so long ago. What is the implication here, Well, 226 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:55,440 Speaker 1: I think you want to talk about Argentina, because I 227 00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:58,199 Speaker 1: just returned from Buenos Ayres last week, So let's talk 228 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 1: about Argentina. Argentina, and I've met with quite a bunch 229 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:03,479 Speaker 1: of people on the ground, and it's certainly a deflating 230 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:06,960 Speaker 1: a sentiment down there. But three hundred fifty billion dollars 231 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,360 Speaker 1: of debt outstanding, of which two hundred sixty billion dollars 232 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:13,199 Speaker 1: is in hard currency, so they will have to undergo 233 00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:15,559 Speaker 1: a major restructuring. I mean, this isn't just gonna be 234 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:18,160 Speaker 1: a reprofiling maturities such as they've led us to believe. 235 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 1: This is gonna be led by the I m F, which, 236 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:22,960 Speaker 1: by the way, forty four billion dollars of that hard 237 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:25,360 Speaker 1: currency debt is owed to the I m F. And 238 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 1: so there's gonna be a lot of interplay there. I mean, 239 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:28,959 Speaker 1: certainly with the Guard moving to the e c B 240 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:31,840 Speaker 1: and now Krystalina Georgieva ascending to the head of the 241 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:35,160 Speaker 1: I m F. You know, she's a Bulgarian economist. The 242 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 1: Bulgaria was bailed out by the I m F BA. 243 00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:41,080 Speaker 1: But really, you have to look back to to know 244 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:44,200 Speaker 1: why Argentina is in the current situation. It's in Lisa 245 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:46,439 Speaker 1: and the fact remains, you know, they've got a lot 246 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:48,800 Speaker 1: of debt outstanding. They need short term relief. It's going 247 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 1: to be led by the I M F and how 248 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:54,600 Speaker 1: RGIVA and UM whoever is in office after the elections 249 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:57,400 Speaker 1: on the seven is. You know, however they play and 250 00:13:57,440 --> 00:13:59,719 Speaker 1: however those negotiations go. We can only hope from the 251 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 1: back of an external U. S Dollar creditor that they 252 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 1: go smoothly and then they go quite frankly, quite quickly, 253 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:08,359 Speaker 1: because in addition to you know, the bonds that are outstanding, 254 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:12,720 Speaker 1: there's also CDs twenty a billion notional of CDs outstanding, 255 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 1: of which five billion is net not gross notional outstanding. 256 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 1: So someone's gonna have to eat that loss if indeed 257 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:21,400 Speaker 1: money changes his hands and there's a CDs trigger which 258 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 1: is hit. So you know, there's a lot to look at. 259 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 1: I mean, certainly, I mean, but you know, just looking 260 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:29,200 Speaker 1: back at what's in the best interest of Argentina. You know, 261 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 1: if before my trip down there last week, I would 262 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 1: have said, you know, most people would have thought that 263 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,680 Speaker 1: you know, a Fernandez Kirshner government would have been deemed 264 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 1: um bad for the market. I don't think you can 265 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 1: make that claim anymore. I mean, certainly some of the 266 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 1: capital controls, and not all capital controls are bad, but 267 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: the Macaree administration, some of the capital controls they just 268 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 1: put into place. I mean basically what they did was 269 00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:54,040 Speaker 1: they they they basically um wouldn't let local paceol denominated 270 00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 1: money market funds which are holding the salaries for local 271 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 1: workers basically pay back that money. So you know, I 272 00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:01,760 Speaker 1: mean corporates, local corporates who are using money markets to 273 00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 1: stash their cash couldn't access it to pay salaries last 274 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 1: month because of a lot of these capital controls. So 275 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 1: I mean McCree is not well loved locally on the ground, 276 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 1: and certainly that was probably a very hasty and cumbersome 277 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:14,680 Speaker 1: move in my opinion. So what's what would be a 278 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:17,880 Speaker 1: quick resolution here? What kind of timing are we looking for? 279 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 1: I mean, most I am a you know kind of 280 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 1: negotiations probably take about six months, um. So anything before 281 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 1: that would be very very quick, because this is a 282 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 1: very very complicated restructuring that needs to take place. I mean, 283 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 1: you know, Paul, I mean we have marketable and non 284 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 1: marketable debt. We have hard currency and local currency that 285 00:15:33,640 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 1: we have different creditors. We have pars, we have discoes, 286 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 1: we have bonars, we have leleaks. I mean, we have 287 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:40,880 Speaker 1: so many different structures that form that debt stack that 288 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 1: to kind of go through it all and kind of 289 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 1: i mean different covenants, different um um, it's just so 290 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:48,160 Speaker 1: much stuff that you need to go through. But the 291 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:50,000 Speaker 1: good thing is you do have collective action clauses and 292 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 1: most of the foreign law debt, so they should be 293 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 1: able to kind of push things forward a little bit 294 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 1: more quickly than we've seen in the past. Just in 295 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 1: a minute, I'm wondering how representative is Argentina of other 296 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 1: potential potholes in emerging markets. Well, Argentina is very unique. 297 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 1: I mean this has been going on for years. I 298 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 1: mean they've defaulted twice in the last twenty years already. 299 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 1: I mean again, a lot of us started with with 300 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:11,960 Speaker 1: with in ninety nine when Russia defaulted on its debt 301 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 1: and basically that pushed a great recession into Latin America. 302 00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:17,440 Speaker 1: If you look at OTWO, Brazil emerged from that, and 303 00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 1: there was a similar politician that was actually um running 304 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:23,160 Speaker 1: under a very kind of populous platform in Braziliano two 305 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 1: and that was Lula and so Lula, which was the 306 00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 1: market thought he would be very market unfriendly going into office, 307 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 1: actually wound up being very friendly in terms of the market. 308 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 1: And actually, you know, the economy, look at where it 309 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 1: is now relative to our to where it once was. Um, 310 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 1: you can only hope that Alberta Fernandez might kind of 311 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:41,640 Speaker 1: fit into that category. I mean, the verdict is still 312 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 1: out because he's not saying anything until he's elected, and 313 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 1: we don't know what it was cabinet is going to 314 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 1: be comprised of. But I think that's gonna be really 315 00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 1: key after the election. Who does he pick to be 316 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 1: in his cabinet? From an economics perspective, that is the 317 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,200 Speaker 1: most important thing that we're looking at right now. Paul, 318 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 1: all right, well, have you back on to give us 319 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 1: some colors. This plays out big, big numbers for Argentina. 320 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:02,160 Speaker 1: Hopefully sooner ra the later they get a resolution there. 321 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 1: Damien sass Our, chief Emerging markets credit strategist, joining us 322 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:23,719 Speaker 1: in a Bloomberg Interactive broker's studio. People don't want to 323 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 1: pay to trade stocks. That has been the resounding message 324 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:30,919 Speaker 1: behind the success of apps like robin Hood, which allows 325 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 1: people to do just that. Joining us down to talk 326 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 1: about the shift to no fee trading is Bill Capuzzi. 327 00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:40,159 Speaker 1: He's chief executive officer of APEX Clearing, joining us on 328 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 1: the phone from Chicago. Bill, I want to talk a 329 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:45,760 Speaker 1: little bit about Charles Schwab's decision announcement earlier this week 330 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:51,399 Speaker 1: to abandon commissions for their brokers and move into a 331 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:57,120 Speaker 1: model that more closely resembles robin Hood. What was your reaction. Yeah, 332 00:17:57,119 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 1: I'm not surprised. I'm not surprised at all that that happen, 333 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,000 Speaker 1: and it's just a matter of time. Uh. You know, 334 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:06,040 Speaker 1: as you mentioned robin Hood, which we helped as a 335 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:10,160 Speaker 1: custodial uh partner to robin Hood back when we helped 336 00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:13,600 Speaker 1: them launch of the free app. We also helped since 337 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 1: then a couple of dozen others offer free trading solutions, 338 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:21,720 Speaker 1: and uh, there's there's demand right look at robin and 339 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 1: they have, you know, close to seven million users today 340 00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:29,159 Speaker 1: and and the reason for it is people are looking 341 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 1: for yield, looking for opportunities and lowering barriers to investing. 342 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:38,479 Speaker 1: So I'm not surprised at all, and I'm certainly not 343 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:42,480 Speaker 1: surprised that TV and the trade followed suit. And my 344 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:45,439 Speaker 1: expectation is somewhere in the next twenty four hours we'll 345 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 1: hear from from Fidelity as well. So, Bill, we've seen 346 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:52,280 Speaker 1: in the asset management business, uh, you know, rates UM 347 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:56,480 Speaker 1: fees continuing to go lower. Where does just give us 348 00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:58,919 Speaker 1: a sense of like the economic model for like a 349 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:01,679 Speaker 1: robin head for robin hood, for example, how did they 350 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 1: make money? Yeah, that's a great question. You know, there's 351 00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:07,239 Speaker 1: there's lots of pressed out over the last twenty four 352 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:10,080 Speaker 1: hours around this and and the reality is there's there's 353 00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:13,760 Speaker 1: a few different levers I'll say that are that are 354 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:17,280 Speaker 1: pulled in terms of how to monetize you know, a 355 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:21,359 Speaker 1: free uh you know from an explicit the perspective of 356 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 1: free solution UM one is payment for order flow, right, 357 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:28,760 Speaker 1: so to they send people are trading actively in stocks 358 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 1: those orders. Retailers are routed to market makers UM, and 359 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:37,440 Speaker 1: there's spread in the name UM and there's an opportunity 360 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 1: to make make money off of the trading UM. And 361 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:45,920 Speaker 1: what I would say is, uh, you know, for retail investor, 362 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 1: the friction lists way of trading today, it's probably never 363 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:52,959 Speaker 1: been better as a matter of fact, I want to say, 364 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:56,159 Speaker 1: probably it's never been better than this today, and the 365 00:19:56,280 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 1: spreads are so tight. Uh you know, there's some opportunity there, 366 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:01,880 Speaker 1: but I think you know, in terms of the win 367 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 1: win for an end investor, it's a it's a tremendous 368 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 1: time in just in terms of trading friction. The second 369 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,640 Speaker 1: is interest, right, So you know, if you look at 370 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:13,760 Speaker 1: schwabing what they came out with, they said, hey, look, 371 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:17,240 Speaker 1: three to four percent of our top line revenue came 372 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:22,639 Speaker 1: from commissions. The vast majority of their uh you know 373 00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 1: there revenue today is either interest income or fee based revenue. 374 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 1: And then the last thing that's not talked about a 375 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:36,639 Speaker 1: lot is just traditional brokerage is um stock loan al Right, 376 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:40,719 Speaker 1: So every anytime someone is buying a stock, there's an 377 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:43,000 Speaker 1: opportunity on the street where someone wants to short the 378 00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:46,919 Speaker 1: stock and is looking for the ability to loan the 379 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,200 Speaker 1: stock and has money made in terms of stock loan. 380 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 1: So despite all of those areas to possibly make money, 381 00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 1: we are looking at charl Schwab shares down an additional 382 00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,560 Speaker 1: three point two today following a three three point three 383 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:04,399 Speaker 1: percent loss yesterday and a nine point seven percent loss 384 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:07,720 Speaker 1: the day that they made this announcement, So it does 385 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,360 Speaker 1: seem like people will view this in a negative light 386 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 1: in terms of earning his profitability. There is a saying 387 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 1: there's no such thing as free lunch. For individual investors 388 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:21,199 Speaker 1: who are looking at potential brokers, what should they be 389 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 1: looking for for truly a good deal and not perhaps 390 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:26,399 Speaker 1: some fees that are gonna be baked in on the 391 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:30,199 Speaker 1: back end. Yeah, that's a that's a great question. And 392 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 1: I think that there are some things right. So, uh, 393 00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:36,200 Speaker 1: you know the fine print you talked about the free launch, right, 394 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:38,920 Speaker 1: make the analogy to you know, the ads for Verizon 395 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:41,560 Speaker 1: where it's a free you get a free iPhone? Right, 396 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 1: it's not free, it's baked into a longer term contract, 397 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:47,920 Speaker 1: and the same those for brokerage. Like people made to 398 00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 1: look at things like is there a minimum balance that's 399 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 1: required in the account? Is there a certain trade size 400 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:57,879 Speaker 1: that I have to do in order to to to 401 00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:01,880 Speaker 1: get that quote unquote free? Um, what's the interest that 402 00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:05,240 Speaker 1: I'm going to receive on the cash that's that's that's 403 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 1: in these accounts? Um? What what my pain for options? Right? 404 00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:11,840 Speaker 1: If I'm going to trade an option, what's the cost 405 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:14,560 Speaker 1: of an option? And then the last one and kind 406 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:17,760 Speaker 1: of the last fontira is mutual funds. Um. You know, 407 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:21,840 Speaker 1: are are the fees for mutual funds free or is 408 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 1: it close to free? Um um? I do think sort of. 409 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:28,240 Speaker 1: The one of the consequences of of this is that 410 00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:31,359 Speaker 1: there's they're going to be further pressure on the mutual 411 00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:36,160 Speaker 1: fund industry, right because ets look at Schwab's announcement, equities 412 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:39,479 Speaker 1: and e t s are free. Well, mutual funds aren't, uh, 413 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 1: And it's just gonna put more and more pressure on 414 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 1: the mutual fund industry and you know, drive more into 415 00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 1: the etf world. Bill Capozzi, thanks so much for joining us. 416 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:51,560 Speaker 1: Really really appreciate your thoughts on this move. We're seeing 417 00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:55,359 Speaker 1: an asset management business towards zero fees. Chief executive officer 418 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:59,000 Speaker 1: of APEX Clearing Bill joined us on the phone from Chicago. Again. 419 00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 1: Just really amazing using change to the asset management business. UH. 420 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:07,440 Speaker 1: With Charles Schwab announcing going to zero costs for many 421 00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:11,160 Speaker 1: of their equity trades, just a real change in the industry. 422 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:13,920 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. 423 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,680 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts 424 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,879 Speaker 1: or whatever. Podcast platform you prefer Paul Sweeney, I'm on 425 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 1: Twitter at pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa Abram Woyd's I'm on 426 00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,480 Speaker 1: Twitter at Lisa Abram Woyds One. Before the podcast, you 427 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,000 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio