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Speaker 1: Life being away from Washington, DC is fantastic.

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Speaker 2: I figured you would say that good. Well, I think

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Speaker 2: you picked a very good time to retire. What can

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Speaker 2: I say, Secretary, I think the.

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Speaker 1: Hardest thing in life is knowing when to dance off

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Speaker 1: the stage, and I think I picked.

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Speaker 2: It perfectly you and Johnny Carson. Hi, everyone, and welcome

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Speaker 2: to this episode of Next Question. Well, if you've ever

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Speaker 2: wondered what keeps America's top military minds up at night,

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Speaker 2: this episode is for you because my guest is former

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Speaker 2: Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. By the way, Bob Gates

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Speaker 2: is a very nice guy. I did a profile of

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Speaker 2: him for sixty minutes back in the day and followed

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Speaker 2: him around to several countries, and afterwards I asked him

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Speaker 2: if he would autograph a photo that the Pentagon had

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Speaker 2: taken during one of our interviews. I believe it was

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Speaker 2: in Baghdad. And in the photo, I'm kind of leaning

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Speaker 2: forward in my chair and he's kind of leaning back

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Speaker 2: in his chair, and he signed the photo this way, Katie, Clearly,

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Speaker 2: I am not buying what you're selling. Robert Gates. So

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Speaker 2: he also has a great sense of humor. He has

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Speaker 2: served in various capacities under eight presidents from both parties.

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Speaker 2: He's held top roles both at the CIA and the Pentagon.

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Speaker 2: If there was ever a time to learn and talk

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Speaker 2: to someone with deep bipartisan experience in foreign policy, well

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Speaker 2: this is it. He has deep concerns about the current

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Speaker 2: direction of US foreign policy, but he sees some bright

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Speaker 2: spots too, like the shifts in NATO funding and like

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Speaker 2: it or not, what Donald Trump has been able to

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Speaker 2: achieve in that arena. We talked about the war in Ukraine,

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Speaker 2: in Gaza, rising tensions with China and Iran, and whether

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Speaker 2: the US still remembers how to wield diplomacy and so

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Speaker 2: called soft power, not just force. It's a frank and

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Speaker 2: sometimes sobering discussion. Here's my conversation with former Secretary of

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Speaker 2: Defense Robert Gates. Secretary Gates, thank you so much for

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Speaker 2: spending some time with me to talk about the state

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Speaker 2: of the world. I've often thought of you over the

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Speaker 2: last several months and wondered what you must be thinking.

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Speaker 2: So before we get more granular, I'm just curious about

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Speaker 2: your overall impressions of what's going on globally. Does it

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Speaker 2: feel as turbulent to you as it does to many

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Speaker 2: of us watching, Katie.

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Speaker 1: I think this is as perilous a time, and not

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Speaker 1: just right now, but in the foreseeable future, as this

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Speaker 1: country has faced since the late nineteen forties and maybe ever,

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Speaker 1: because we face two for the first time, major aggressive

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Speaker 1: nuclear powers, both in Asia and in Europe, that have

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Speaker 1: aspirations territorial aspirations that they are willing to use force

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Speaker 1: to acquire. They're both modernizing and expanding their their nuclear

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Speaker 1: military forces. They have support in a couple of other countries,

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Speaker 1: certainly North Korea, also nuclear armed and expanding its Arsenal.

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Speaker 1: Iran used to be a major problem. I think much

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Speaker 1: less so now, but still very hostile. And I think

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Speaker 1: we just on our part, seem paralyzed when it comes

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Speaker 1: to rebuilding and strengthening our military and particularly are non

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Speaker 1: military instruments of power, and we seem so divided here

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Speaker 1: at home in the face of these threats from abroad.

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Speaker 1: But I think it's a very concerning time.

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Speaker 2: Well, there's a lot to dig into given your first answer,

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Speaker 2: So let's talk about these global hotspots, if you will,

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Speaker 2: and some of the areas of concern that you and

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Speaker 2: many others have. Let's begin with the Russia Ukraine War,

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Speaker 2: which has been underway for more than three years now,

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Speaker 2: resulting in an estimated two hundred and fifty thousand Russian

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Speaker 2: military deaths and sixty to one hundred thousand Ukrainian deaths.

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Speaker 2: President Trump campaigned, as you know, on the promise that

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Speaker 2: he could end the war in Ukraine in twenty four hours.

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Speaker 2: Now more than six month into his term, not only

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Speaker 2: is the war intensifying, but more recently he's publicly vented

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Speaker 2: that Putin is quote full of bullshit. Are you surprised

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Speaker 2: that President Trump wasn't able to keep his campaign promise?

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Speaker 2: And what does it tell you about his grasp of

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Speaker 2: reality when it comes to dealing with someone like Vladimir Putin.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's been my experience that most of the

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Speaker 1: US presidents that I worked for, and many before that,

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Speaker 1: beginning with Franklin Roosevelt, always had enormous confidence in their

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Speaker 1: ability to win over leaders on the other side, that

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Speaker 1: the force of their personalities and their persuasiveness would enable

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Speaker 1: them to make headway with the leaders of authoritarian country.

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Speaker 1: So FDR was this way with Stalin, Old Uncle Joe

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Speaker 1: as he called him. You saw the same thing when

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Speaker 1: President Kennedy went to v and that with Khrushchov, thought

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Speaker 1: he could win him over. And this was true with

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Speaker 1: most US presidents, and I think President Trump fell into

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Speaker 1: that category. I had less international experience than most of them,

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Speaker 1: but I think he felt that by virtue of personality

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Speaker 1: that he could persuade Putin that making peace made sense.

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Speaker 1: And I think it starts with fundamentally, and I think

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Speaker 1: this is true of more than a few people in

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Speaker 1: this country, a belief that you could negotiate with Putin

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Speaker 1: and they don't understand that Putin has aspirations that go

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Speaker 1: far beyond any personal relationships. He considers his destiny to

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Speaker 1: be recreating the Russian Empire, and there can be no

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Speaker 1: Russian Empire without Ukraine, as my old mentor's Big Brashinsky

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Speaker 1: used to say. And so he's not going to quit

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Speaker 1: in Ukraine until he either feels he can't win or

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Speaker 1: in some way exhausted, or does achieve his objectives. So

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Speaker 1: the notion that he would agree to terms less than

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Speaker 1: achieving dominance over Ukraine, I think was always unrealistic, whether

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Speaker 1: it was being pursued by a democratic president or a

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Speaker 1: Republican president.

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Speaker 2: So you do not believe this is unique in any way,

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Speaker 2: shape or form to Donald Trump having said that Secretary Gates,

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Speaker 2: do you feel the level of presumptuousness and potentially arrogance

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Speaker 2: is unprecedented for Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: I have never worked for Donald Trump, but I have

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Speaker 1: worked for a few presidents that I thought were pretty arrogant.

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Speaker 1: But from a distance, I think it was just this

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Speaker 1: supreme self confidence that he could win this guy over.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned Vladimir Putin's ultimate goal, and in fact The

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Speaker 2: New York Times is reporting that quote Putin is now

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Speaker 2: convinced that his military could overpower Ukraines in the months

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Speaker 2: to come. So how do you see this next phase

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Speaker 2: playing out?

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Speaker 1: What's interesting to me is the price that Putin is

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Speaker 1: prepared to pay. You mentioned a quarter of a million

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Speaker 1: dead Russians. There's another three quarters of a million at

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Speaker 1: least that have been wounded. So you've got a million

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Speaker 1: Russian casualties. By comparison, in ten years in Afghanistan, the

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Speaker 1: Russians suffered fifteen thousand dead. And he has completely militarized

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Speaker 1: the Russian economy at this point, and you've had a

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Speaker 1: million young Russians leave the country, particularly young men, entrepreneurs,

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Speaker 1: and others. So basically Putin has mortgaged the future of

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Speaker 1: Russia on this campaign in Ukraine. And I think at

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Speaker 1: this point the key, as far as I'm concerned, is

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Speaker 1: the will of the Ukrainian people. These attacks in the

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Speaker 1: last few weeks, particularly on cities in western Ukraine, is

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Speaker 1: a real test of the morale and of the resilience

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Speaker 1: of the Ukrainian people. And the Russians are cranking an

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Speaker 1: enormous number of drones out of their factories now, and

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Speaker 1: I think they can sustain these kinds of attacks all

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Speaker 1: night long on cities in western Ukraine. The ground war

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Speaker 1: is proceeding very slowly. In the east, they still haven't.

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Speaker 1: The Russians, after all this time, still haven't fully occupied

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Speaker 1: all four of those provinces in the Dnbas that they

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Speaker 1: claim and have declared their sovereignty over. The Russians have

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Speaker 1: made very slow headway. They have been making some headway,

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Speaker 1: but an enormous cost. I've read one thousand to fifteen

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Speaker 1: hundred casualties a day in the ground war. And if

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainians can continue to build their own their domestic

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Speaker 1: defense industries as they are doing, particularly with drones, they've

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Speaker 1: got Germans and Danish companies building factories in Ukraine to

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Speaker 1: produce weapons. I think President Trump's decision to sell weapons

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Speaker 1: to our NATO allies that they then can provide to

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainians is really important because the air defenses in

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Speaker 1: particular is where they need help. But I also read

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Speaker 1: that this will include offensive missiles as well. So the

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Speaker 1: only way to stop Putin is to drive the cost

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Speaker 1: of this war for him through the roof. And I

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Speaker 1: think that the legislation that Lindsey Graham and others have

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Speaker 1: put together on the Hill in terms of more sanctions

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Speaker 1: on Russia is a good thing. My guess is if

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Speaker 1: it ever passes, it'll include a waiver that allows Trump

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Speaker 1: to sort of meter it out as he sees fit,

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Speaker 1: as he thinks elements of sanctions will work, so he'll

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Speaker 1: have a lot of flexibility in how he applies that law.

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Speaker 1: But I think all those things need to be done.

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Speaker 2: Well, do you think that the Trump administration has been

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Speaker 2: a reliable enough partner to Ukraine. It seems that they

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Speaker 2: vacillate and the messaging doesn't seem to be that consistent

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Speaker 2: coming out of the White House.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think there has been an evolution of views

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Speaker 1: I think that there was you know, everybody's aware of

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Speaker 1: the Oval Office meeting between Violenski and President Trump.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, what did you think of that when you watch that.

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Speaker 1: I've never quite seen anything like that, to tell you

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Speaker 1: the truth. But from that point, as and going back

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Speaker 1: to our earlier conversation, as Trump has seen Putin refuse

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Speaker 1: to negotiate and ramp up military attacks on Ukraine, the

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Speaker 1: views of the administration have evolved toward more help for Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: in a much friendlier attitude toward Ukraine. And I think

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Speaker 1: where you've read to this point where President Trump is

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Speaker 1: now ready to resume providing weapons to Ukraine, albeit through

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Speaker 1: the cutouts in.

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Speaker 2: Europe, you are talking about whether the Ukrainians can withstand

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Speaker 2: this level of attack and about the ground war. But

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Speaker 2: let's theorize that the Ukrainians cannot and that Russia does

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Speaker 2: in fact overtake Ukraine. What then?

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Speaker 1: I think that would be a geopolitical and strategic disaster,

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Speaker 1: and I think it would have a huge impact in Europe.

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Speaker 1: I also think it would have a real impact in

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Speaker 1: Asia as well. I think Shi Jenping is watching the

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Speaker 1: evolution of this battle in Ukraine very closely and has

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Speaker 1: been from the very beginning. I think he had to

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Speaker 1: be surprised by the speed with which the Western countries

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Speaker 1: developed tries, came together to impose sanctions on Russia, and

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Speaker 1: pretty draconian sanctions. The speed with which Western companies left Russia.

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Speaker 1: I think there's a big lesson in that for China,

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Speaker 1: if they should take some military action against Taiwan. I

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Speaker 1: think he had to be a little amazed at the

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Speaker 1: poor performance of the Russian military. You know, they carried

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Speaker 1: five days provisions and their ceremonial uniforms and here we

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Speaker 1: are in the fourth year, and so the poor performance

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Speaker 1: of the Russian military, Russian military equipment, Russian generals, and

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Speaker 1: so I think there's some real lessons there. But should

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Speaker 1: Putin be successful in Ukraine, then I think that will

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Speaker 1: probably embolden President she In the meantime, I think you

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Speaker 1: see the Europeans, particularly the East Europeans and the Swedes

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Speaker 1: and the Finns are very concerned in terms of their

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Speaker 1: own security with respect to should Putin be successful in Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: The Baltic states, I think, are particularly Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia,

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Speaker 1: very concerned about what would happen. But I also think

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Speaker 1: it would be a very significant strategic defeat for the

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Speaker 1: United States.

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Speaker 2: And what will happen? Do you think the power graph

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Speaker 2: would continue if Putin is victorious.

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Speaker 1: I think there'll probably be a period of recovery and consolidation.

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Speaker 1: But I think that Moldova, Transnistria, and even the Baltic

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Speaker 1: States would all be at risk.

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Speaker 2: The war in Ukraine, as you well know, has sparked

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Speaker 2: a debate about America's role as the lynchpen of the

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Speaker 2: Western Alliance, as this administration has questioned the value of

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Speaker 2: NATO and clash with key allies. What would a new

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Speaker 2: world order look like if the US is no longer

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Speaker 2: at the center of it.

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Speaker 1: I think that the US is still at the center

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Speaker 1: and is likely to remain there because of our economic

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Speaker 1: and military power, and I think other countries acknowledge this.

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Speaker 1: The nature of our relationships with other countries I think

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Speaker 1: could change or would change. You know, Trump's pressure on

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Speaker 1: the NATO allies has produced some resentment over there and

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Speaker 1: concerns here. But the truth of the matter, Katie, is

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Speaker 1: that for decades, those of US at senior levels in

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Speaker 1: the American government have been hectoring the Europeans to do

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Speaker 1: more for their own defense. That was my last speech

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Speaker 1: as secretary in Brussels Secretary of Defense, berating the Europeans

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Speaker 1: and basically saying I was the last of the generation

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Speaker 1: of the Cold War that remembered when NATO was powerful

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Speaker 1: and when these countries did their part, and that a

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Speaker 1: new generation of politicians was coming along in Washington in

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Speaker 1: the United States that did not have that emotional attachment

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Speaker 1: and in the absence of the Europeans doing more, would

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Speaker 1: begin to look at that relationship more in a cost

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Speaker 1: benefit analysis. That was June of twenty eleven, fourteen years ago,

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Speaker 1: but none of us were successful. Got to give President

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Speaker 1: Trump credit. These countries have all changed their views, and

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Speaker 1: probably in no small part thanks to Vadimir Putin and

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Speaker 1: the invasion of Ukraine. But now you've got NATO going

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Speaker 1: from a two percent threshold of GDP for defense spending

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Speaker 1: to five percent, three and a half directly on military

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Speaker 1: and a percent and a half on infrastructure. So that's

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Speaker 1: a big achievement, frankly, and the Europeans have awakened. Now

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Speaker 1: what has come along with that is it's partly due

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Speaker 1: to Vladimir Putin's threat, but it's also due to their

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Speaker 1: concern that in the future, will the United States be

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Speaker 1: there for them under Article five in the alliance? And

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Speaker 1: so you see French President Macron and others saying, you know,

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Speaker 1: we'd better be more self sufficient because the US may

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Speaker 1: not be here. So that growing lack of confidence in

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Speaker 1: whether the US will be there is a concern. There's

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Speaker 1: no doubt about that. I don't think we're there yet.

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Speaker 1: And frankly, the president's rhetoric about NATO has changed as

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Speaker 1: the NATO allies have in fact increased their commitment to

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Speaker 1: defense spending. So you haven't in the last few months,

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Speaker 1: you haven't heard the kind of talk that we heard

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Speaker 1: in the first term about not abiding bio Article five,

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Speaker 1: or maybe will only defend those countries that spend enough

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Speaker 1: on defense and so on.

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Speaker 2: So you think that the relationship with NATO, some of

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Speaker 2: the tension that came with the demand to cony up

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Speaker 2: and pay more of their fair share to the overall

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Speaker 2: defense budget, that that will not irreparably harm our relationship

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Speaker 2: with NATO allies. Do you think that the rhetoric has

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Speaker 2: changed and that the Trump administration can have a good,

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Speaker 2: overall working relationship with our NATO allies despite some of

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Speaker 2: the rhetoric that came with these demands.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think the atmospherics that have surrounded the President's

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Speaker 1: recent meetings, say with the UK Prime Minister, with the

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Speaker 1: German Chancellor, with the Polish President, the atmospherics surrounding those

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Speaker 1: conversations have actually been pretty good, and so I think

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Speaker 1: the Europeans at this point have mixed feelings. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there has always been this concern Katie, on the part

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Speaker 1: of the Europeans, and particularly the French, whether the United

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Speaker 1: States actually would be willing to go to war for them.

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Speaker 1: I mean Charles de gaul when he was pulling France

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Speaker 1: out of the military part of the alliance, basically was saying,

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Speaker 1: you know, will Washington sacrifice New York for Paris in

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Speaker 1: terms of a nuclear exchange. And so there's always been

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Speaker 1: this undercurrent in this Alliance relationship of whether, particularly in

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Speaker 1: a nuclear context, the United States would actually step up.

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Speaker 1: I think that continues. I don't think there's any way

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Speaker 1: to avoid it all together. But I do think the

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Speaker 1: change of rhetoric in recent weeks particularly has probably been

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Speaker 1: encouraging to the Europeans. And the truth is, there are

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Speaker 1: a lot of members of the US Congress that are

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Speaker 1: very strong proponents of NATO, and you know there's legislation

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Speaker 1: on the Hill, it's actually been put forward by both

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Speaker 1: Republicans and Democrats that would limit the president's ability to

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Speaker 1: pull troops out of Europe or to in any way

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Speaker 1: change the relationship with NATO, so that the Europeans have

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Speaker 1: to be encouraged by that as well.

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Speaker 2: If you want to get smarter every morning with a

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Speaker 2: breakdown of the news and fascinating takes on health and

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Speaker 2: wellness and pop culture, sign up for our daily newsletter,

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Speaker 2: Wake Up Call by going to Katiecuric dot com. You

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Speaker 2: talked about earlier how divided this country is, and you

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Speaker 2: served under both Presidents George W. Bush and President Obama,

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Speaker 2: so you're really a symbol of what increasingly appears to

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Speaker 2: be a bygone era of bipartisan US foreign policy. I

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Speaker 2: wonder if you could talk a little bit more, Secretary

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Speaker 2: Gates about the consequences of this fracture and the impact

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Speaker 2: that you fear I imagine it could have on foreign policy.

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Speaker 1: The interesting thing to me, Katie, is that there is

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Speaker 1: a difference between the rhetoric in Washington and the actual

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Speaker 1: actions and dealings in Washington and it's like both parties

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Speaker 1: are afraid publicly to say that they agree with each

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Speaker 1: other on anything, But the reality is there is a

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Speaker 1: great degree of bipartisanship on the hill in terms of China,

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Speaker 1: for example, and the Congress, both Republicans and Democrats are

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Speaker 1: very hawkish on China. I think there's a great deal

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Speaker 1: of support for Ukraine across the aisle. In the Congress,

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Speaker 1: there's a very vocal minority who are opposed both Republicans

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Speaker 1: and Democrats, but a lot of support. There's a lot

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Speaker 1: of support for NATO. So I think there is sort

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Speaker 1: of under the covers, if you will, more bipartisanship than

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Speaker 1: appear in the public rhetoric in politicians of both parties,

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Speaker 1: and an unwillingness to acknowledge that. The problem with that

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Speaker 1: is that it communicates a mixed message to our friends

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Speaker 1: and allies as well as to our adversaries and the opposition.

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Speaker 1: One of the biggest reasons we were successful in the

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Speaker 1: Cold War was that we pursued a public bipartisanship through

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Speaker 1: nine successive presidents, both Republicans and Democrats. We have a very,

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Speaker 1: very long contest with China in front of US, and

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Speaker 1: politicians tend to think in two and four year increments,

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Speaker 1: and we need to have a publicly articulated bipartisanship that

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Speaker 1: goes beyond the end of this administration and the next

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Speaker 1: and so on, that communicates the message to the Chinese

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Speaker 1: above all that we're in this contest for the long haul.

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Speaker 1: And so the irony is how to get these politicians

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Speaker 1: who actually agree with each other when they're in private,

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Speaker 1: to do so publicly.

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Speaker 2: If a united front isn't presented, I mean in real

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Speaker 2: world terms, how does that impact both our allies and adversaries.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think it just raises concerns and doubts on

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Speaker 1: their part. I think it encourages them to find other

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Speaker 1: allies and other relationships, and it encourages them to try

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Speaker 1: and have it both ways. And let's just say, for example, economically,

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Speaker 1: to have strong economic relationships with both the United States

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Speaker 1: and China. You see this throughout the global South of

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Speaker 1: countries who absolutely do not want to be put in

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Speaker 1: a position of having to choose between one or the other.

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Speaker 1: And I think the more the US is seen as

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Speaker 1: turning inward or not engaging around the world, the more

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Speaker 1: these other countries will position themselves not as our adversaries,

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Speaker 1: but more in the middle of wanting to have it

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Speaker 1: both ways, of cultivating relationships with both the US and China.

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Speaker 2: Speaking of turning inward, I'd love to talk to you

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Speaker 2: about the America first isolationist sentiment that is so pervasive today.

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Speaker 2: As someone who served as Secretary of Defense during the

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Speaker 2: wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, to what extent do you

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Speaker 2: think the failures and frustrations of those wars contributed to

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Speaker 2: the public's dissillusionment with US intervention abroad.

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Speaker 1: Oh, I think they played a big role. You know,

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Speaker 1: we saw this after Vietnam. And I've always said the

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Speaker 1: American people are not very warlike. They basically want to

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Speaker 1: just be left alone. And if we are going to engage,

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Speaker 1: a president has to persuade them why it's important. And

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Speaker 1: Americans are okay with military operations that are quick and effective.

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Speaker 1: So one example is the First Gulf War, which lasted

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Speaker 1: one hundred hours on the ground. Another would be President

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Speaker 1: Trump's attack on Iran. But anything that is prolonged, the

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Speaker 1: American people will have very limited tolerance for it. And

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Speaker 1: the way I used to put it was, there's a

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Speaker 1: residual bank of patients in the American people and presidents

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Speaker 1: draw down on that bank at their peril. And if

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Speaker 1: you do it in a situation where American vital interests,

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Speaker 1: our own security isn't at risk, you risk putting yourself

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Speaker 1: in a position where the American people are reluctant to engage,

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Speaker 1: even if it is in our vital interest. So that

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Speaker 1: twenty years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, I think

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Speaker 1: dug deep into that well of patients. And I think

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Speaker 1: it's not just the isolationists. I think there's a very

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Speaker 1: broad range of people in this country at this point

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Speaker 1: who have no interest in long term engagements, particularly on

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Speaker 1: the ground where our sons and daughters are in harm's

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Speaker 1: way and where you have significant casualties. So I think

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Speaker 1: it's not just isolationists. I think there's a pretty broad

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Speaker 1: view within that regard.

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Speaker 2: But can that go too far? Can this isolationist tendency

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Speaker 2: keep us from getting involved in conflicts that we should

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Speaker 2: be involved in, even if they are not long protracted once.

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Speaker 1: Yes, I think the opposition to providing any help to

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Speaker 1: Ukraine is a good example of that. We're not putting

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Speaker 1: any American troops at risk in Ukraine. The Ukrainians are

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Speaker 1: doing the fighting. Zelenski's position reminds me of Churchill in

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Speaker 1: World War Two when he told Roseven, well, give us

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Speaker 1: the tools and we will do the job. And that's

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Speaker 1: what Zelenski has been asking for, and so a refusal

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Speaker 1: to help Ukraine I think, I think is very shortsighted.

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Speaker 1: There's always been a strain of isolationism, particularly on both extremes,

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Speaker 1: both the left and the right. The one on the right.

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Speaker 1: People forget, if Dwight Eisenhower hadn't run for president in

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Speaker 1: nineteen fifty two, Satir Bob Taft, who really wasn't out

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Speaker 1: and out isolationists, may well have become president of the

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Speaker 1: United States, and the whole history of NATO and everything

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Speaker 1: else could have been very, very different. He was one

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Speaker 1: of the handful of people who voted against the NATO

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Speaker 1: establishing the NATO Alliance. So there's been this strained from

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Speaker 1: the thirties and the twenties and so on about isolationism.

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Speaker 1: But I think if you look at what President Trump

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Speaker 1: has actually done in the last six months, it's far

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Speaker 1: from isolationists. I mean the Abraham Accords from the first term,

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Speaker 1: getting involved in continuing sport for Ukraine, although, as we've

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Speaker 1: talked about mixed messages for a while, but wanting to

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Speaker 1: try and negotiate a settlement in Ukraine, trying to negotiate

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Speaker 1: a settlement in Gaza, his willingness to take on Iran,

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Speaker 1: his engagement with the Gulf Arabs, his engagement with Shijenping.

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Speaker 1: This guy is not an isolationist. He's certainly transactional in

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Speaker 1: sense of putting America's interests first in all of these negotiations.

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Speaker 1: But isolationists is one thing that he really isn't.

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Speaker 2: Have you been surprised by that?

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Speaker 1: Not really. I think he has a great deal of

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Speaker 1: self confidence, and I think that he sees a big

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Speaker 1: role for himself, and not only in this country but

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Speaker 1: in the world.

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Speaker 2: Well, he'd very much liked to win the Nobel Peace Prize.

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Speaker 2: Do you think he's worthy of that?

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Speaker 1: Well, you know, I've watched some of the Nobel Peace Prizes.

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Speaker 1: In all honesty, you know what, President Obama got the

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Speaker 1: Nobel Peace Prize a few months into his presidency before

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Speaker 1: he'd done anything. So I'm not sure what criteria these

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Speaker 1: folks used in making that determination. I think if there

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Speaker 1: are some actual achievements, if there were to be a

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Speaker 1: peace settlement in Gaza, if there were to be a

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Speaker 1: peace settlement in Ukraine, then I think sure. I think

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Speaker 1: things like that have to happen where there's actually something

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Speaker 1: tangible that's been achieved to be a serious candidate.

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Speaker 2: I have to follow up with a question about that,

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Speaker 2: Secretary Gates, are you suggesting that Barack Obama was not

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Speaker 2: worthy or do you just question the timing of the award.

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Speaker 1: I think he was surprised to get the Nobel.

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Speaker 2: But ultimately do you think he deserved it?

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Speaker 1: Not at that point in his presidency.

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Speaker 2: What about later in his presidency?

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Speaker 1: Maybe? So what specif peace settlements were achieved, what specific

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Speaker 1: measures toward peace were put into place and proved defective?

437
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 1: You know, did Jimmy Carter deserve the Nobel Peace Prize

438
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 1: for the Camp David Accords? Absolutely? Maybe Ronald Reagan deserved

439
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 1: it for the I n F Treaty. But I think,

440
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 1: you know, without picking on individual presidents, I think the

441
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 1: criterion needs to be what specifically has been achieved that

442
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 1: merits that award.

443
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 2: So what would you say specifically was achieved by President Obama?

444
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 1: Or would you Well, I think that's hard for me

445
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 1: to judge.

446
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 2: Really you just judged the other guys.

447
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 1: Well, I'm trying to think back to the whole period,

448
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 1: and I'm trying to think of you know, were there

449
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 1: specific peace agreements that were resolved, Were there significant moves

450
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 1: toward peace in the Middle East? Did things change dramatically

451
00:30:57,720 --> 00:30:58,959
Speaker 1: with respect to China?

452
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 2: So why don't you get back to me on that.

453
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 2: Let's turn to a very serious topic, which, of course

454
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 2: is one you just mentioned, the devastation in Gaza and

455
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 2: the ongoing conflict there. According to the Gaza Health Ministry,

456
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:20,200
Speaker 2: which some people look at with some degree of skepticism,

457
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 2: more than fifty five thousand Palestinians have been killed, and

458
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 2: the IPC reports that half a million people are now

459
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 2: starving and the entire territory is at risk of famine.

460
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:38,960
Speaker 2: This conflict is tearing the Mideast apart, obviously, but also

461
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 2: I think in many ways this country is being torn apart.

462
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 2: And I'm curious if you see any viable path to

463
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 2: a truce and are you optimistic it will be achieved.

464
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 1: Well, I think there is a viable path, and that

465
00:31:56,000 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 1: is for Hamas to agree. I mean, how hard can

466
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 1: it be for them to say yes? Given the losses

467
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 1: that have been suffered under their leadership. People need to

468
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 1: remember they started this on October seventh and basically brought

469
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 1: it on themselves. And you have this small number of

470
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 1: leaders who have basic control of the weapons in Gaza

471
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 1: and through intimidation, continue to exercise their authority in Gaza.

472
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 1: And as they look around, at what point do they say,

473
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 1: if we care at all about all of these people

474
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 1: that look to us, why would we not make peace?

475
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 1: Why would we not agree to terms that end this war?

476
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 1: And then begin to think about what happens next. I mean,

477
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 1: my attitude is they started it and they can't seem

478
00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 1: to finish it. They've lost some of their leaders, lost

479
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 1: lost so many of their citizens. These are the people

480
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 1: for whom they are responsible. At what point do they

481
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 1: begin to accept responsibility for these extraordinary losses when tomorrow

482
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: it could all stop if they just said yes to

483
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:17,960
Speaker 1: the proposals that President Trump and others have put forward.

484
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 2: I'm curious. I've asked this question to many people before,

485
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 2: but not really of someone of your stature, And I

486
00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 2: wonder why there has never been a viable alternative to

487
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 2: Hamas and why some kind of more humane government has

488
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 2: not been able to be installed. Maybe that's a dumb

489
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 2: question because I guess they would just kill everyone. But

490
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 2: couldn't there be some way that Hamas could be replaced

491
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 2: with a better government.

492
00:33:56,680 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 1: Well, part of the problem is that the West Bank

493
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:08,360
Speaker 1: Palestinian authority is both corrupt and incompetent. President of Boss

494
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 1: is eighty eight years old, something like that. And you know,

495
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 1: if you had a significantly younger leader among the Palestinians emerged,

496
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 1: somebody with a reform agenda, somebody who was actually thinking

497
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 1: about the well being of Palestinians, then maybe you have

498
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 1: an option to get something positive going in Gaza. But

499
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,880
Speaker 1: right now there's not much of an alternative on the

500
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,920
Speaker 1: West Bank either. And you know, at one point, I've

501
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 1: had my differences with Bib Natanyau over the years, but

502
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 1: bb asked a good question. When you're talking about a

503
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:51,360
Speaker 1: two states solution, which Palestinians am I going to be

504
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 1: negotiating with the Palestinians on the West Bank that have

505
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:59,319
Speaker 1: acknowledged the Israel has a right to exist and with

506
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 1: whom we have cooperated on security and various other majors

507
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:08,280
Speaker 1: or Hamas that has resolved that Israel should cease to exist,

508
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:11,680
Speaker 1: which Palestinians. Am I going to be negotiating with and

509
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 1: until the Palestinians can come together? And this is a

510
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,919
Speaker 1: place where it seems to me the Arab States could

511
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 1: play a more constructive role.

512
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 2: Why don't they?

513
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 1: It's a good question, and it's a question that I've

514
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:28,760
Speaker 1: asked myself and others for a very very long time.

515
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 2: You mentioned Benjamin Netanyahu and there was a recent New

516
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 2: York Times report that says he may have intentionally prolonged

517
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 2: the war in Gaza in part to avoid facing prosecution

518
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:45,480
Speaker 2: at the International Criminal Court. What did you think of

519
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 2: that report? Do you think it's a legitimate explanation, and

520
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 2: if so, how should it shape the US governments ongoing

521
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:57,360
Speaker 2: military and diplomatic support of Israel.

522
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 1: Well, I have never been a particularly effective mind reader,

523
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 1: so figuring out baby nepping y'all who's motives in any

524
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 1: given situation is a puzzled I don't think I'm able

525
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:10,480
Speaker 1: to solve.

526
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:22,640
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527
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534
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535
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536
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 2: would be a very heavy political lift your words for

537
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:15,360
Speaker 2: any US president to cut off military supplies to Israel

538
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:19,319
Speaker 2: to force the halt in Gaza. Given that reality, what

539
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 2: kind of meaningful leverage does the US actually have to

540
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 2: bring about a cease fire or limit or reduce civilian casualties.

541
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 1: Well, I think we have under both President Biden and

542
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 1: President Trump. We have tried to get humanitarian aid flowing

543
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 1: and tried to get the Israelis to be more cautious

544
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 1: in their military operations in terms of innocent casualties. I

545
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 1: think the truth is that the United States, at least

546
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:56,480
Speaker 1: from a political standpoint, neither Republicans nor Democrats have been

547
00:37:56,520 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 1: prepared to exercise the kind of economic orlilitary leverage on

548
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:06,800
Speaker 1: Israel that would produce a change in Israeli behavior. Should

549
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 1: they I think if they had some viable alternatives, if

550
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 1: they had proposals that had some prospect of bringing an

551
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:22,800
Speaker 1: end to the conflict or a path forward, we should

552
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:26,319
Speaker 1: be prepared at some point to exercise that kind of influence.

553
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:32,160
Speaker 2: The war in Gaza has contributed to a broader regional escalation,

554
00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:35,440
Speaker 2: as you know, leading to Israeli strikes on Iran and

555
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 2: more recently US attacks on three Iranian nuclear sites. Can

556
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:44,359
Speaker 2: you talk about the unprecedented nature of these strikes. I

557
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 2: know you applauded them early because you said there was

558
00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:52,120
Speaker 2: a specific goal, it wasn't a long protracted conflict. But

559
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 2: how did this move by the Trump administration upend both

560
00:38:56,640 --> 00:39:00,840
Speaker 2: long standing military and diplomatic norms? To me, like you

561
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:02,399
Speaker 2: think it was a positive thing.

562
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,880
Speaker 1: I think that what Israel you know, in terms of

563
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:14,319
Speaker 1: unintended consequences and taking a tactical situation and turning it

564
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:19,319
Speaker 1: into a strategic opportunity is what at high cost the

565
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 1: October seventh attack on Israel produced, and that was a

566
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 1: decision on the part of the Israelis to change the

567
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:32,360
Speaker 1: strategic environment in the Middle East. And so what you

568
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 1: have seen over the last year or so is. The

569
00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 1: Israelis at first essentially destroying all but one of the

570
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 1: surrogates Iran had created at great cost and with great

571
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 1: effort over time, so Hamas in Gaza, his Belaw in

572
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:56,799
Speaker 1: southern Lebanon. The Israelis didn't directly create the change of

573
00:39:56,880 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 1: government in Syria, but the change of go government in

574
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:03,920
Speaker 1: Syria has cut off the supply line from Iran to

575
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:08,799
Speaker 1: his blaw, so his blow can't rearm. So Iran had

576
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 1: counted on these surrogates. And the third is the Huthis

577
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:16,200
Speaker 1: in Yemen, which nobody has been able to actually get

578
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 1: control of. But by so weakening Hamas and his blaw,

579
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 1: and with the replacement of the Syrian government of an

580
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:30,520
Speaker 1: Ala white Hashia government with a Sunni government, the Israelis

581
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:37,040
Speaker 1: considerably weakened Iran's reach in the region. And then their

582
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 1: attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities. The first attack got

583
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:45,720
Speaker 1: rid of their strategic air defenses around the nuclear sites

584
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 1: and several other sites and set back their program. So

585
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 1: if you add then to that the more recent US attack,

586
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:57,959
Speaker 1: what you have seen is a change in the strategic

587
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:02,040
Speaker 1: environment in the Middle East, deduced by Israel and in

588
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 1: effect reinforced by the United States of a very, very

589
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 1: significantly weakened Iran, And I think that the worry of

590
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:13,120
Speaker 1: the Gulf States was that that war would expand and

591
00:41:13,960 --> 00:41:17,879
Speaker 1: reach them, and the fact that it has not, I

592
00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:22,200
Speaker 1: think they see this change in the strategic environment and

593
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:26,239
Speaker 1: the weakening of Iran as a positive thing. So I

594
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:28,799
Speaker 1: think what we've seen over the last year or so

595
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:32,920
Speaker 1: is a pretty significant change in the environment in the

596
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:37,320
Speaker 1: Middle East, and frankly in the weakening of its most

597
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 1: disruptive player.

598
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:44,000
Speaker 2: So it changed the strategic environment, or a series of

599
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 2: events have changed the strategic environment. But what about the

600
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 2: mission itself. I know in May, before the US strike

601
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:56,120
Speaker 2: on Iran's nuclear sites, you said, quote the problem that

602
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 2: I've had with the strike on the Iranian nuclear program

603
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:02,280
Speaker 2: from the time I was secretary is that it buys

604
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:05,120
Speaker 2: you a year or two. You cannot get at the

605
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:09,439
Speaker 2: very deeply buried parts of the Iranian nuclear program. Even

606
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:13,839
Speaker 2: our massive ordnance penetrator won't get that far down. And

607
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:16,560
Speaker 2: following the US strike in June, we still don't fully

608
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:19,320
Speaker 2: know the extent of the impact it will have on

609
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:23,759
Speaker 2: Iran's nuclear program. So I guess, yes, it changed and

610
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 2: was part of this effort to change the strategic environment.

611
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:33,279
Speaker 2: But do you think it got the job done in

612
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:40,160
Speaker 2: terms of dismantling or destroying or significantly damaging Iran's nuclear capabilities.

613
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:43,360
Speaker 1: The reason that I have argued for a long time

614
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 1: that a conventional strike would damage but not destroy the

615
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 1: Iranian nuclear program. It basically would buy you time. And

616
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 1: the timeline is anywhere from a year to two years

617
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 1: to frankly two to five years. But it basically buys

618
00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:06,040
Speaker 1: you time for one thing. You can't unlearn what you've

619
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:10,880
Speaker 1: already learned. So the Iranians are not going to forget

620
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:14,960
Speaker 1: about this. The Israelians themselves are saying that they thought

621
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:18,359
Speaker 1: that the enriched material was spread out among the three

622
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:22,920
Speaker 1: sites as bahand Natans and Fdo, and that was not

623
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 1: all destroyed. They also are saying they're probably centrifugias that

624
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:32,839
Speaker 1: were in clandestine places. So I think that you have

625
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:37,960
Speaker 1: basically set back the Iranian program by some period of time.

626
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:42,040
Speaker 1: My guess would be over a year, who knows how long.

627
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:46,800
Speaker 1: And the question now, it seems to me for the

628
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:52,440
Speaker 1: Iranian government, both with respect to their surrogates in the

629
00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:56,880
Speaker 1: region and their nuclear program, there have to be voices

630
00:43:56,920 --> 00:44:01,120
Speaker 1: in Iran saying we have spent billions and billions and

631
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 1: billions of dollars on supporting these surrogates and on our

632
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:09,799
Speaker 1: nuclear program, and look where we are. Is this a

633
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 1: path that makes any sense at all going forward? Or

634
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:16,760
Speaker 1: do we actually start to try and rebuild this country.

635
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:21,239
Speaker 1: And I think that's a decision that the Iranians are

636
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:25,280
Speaker 1: facing right now. And I think that there is enough

637
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:29,000
Speaker 1: that has survived. I think there's great damage that's been

638
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 1: done to the Iranian program, but enough has survived and

639
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 1: enough people have survived that they could reconstitute that program

640
00:44:37,520 --> 00:44:40,479
Speaker 1: over a period of time, probably more covertly and even

641
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 1: deeper than has been the case. I don't think they

642
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 1: can cheat, though, because one of the amazing things, as

643
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 1: an old intelligence guy, that just impresses the heck out

644
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:54,520
Speaker 1: of me is how thoroughly the Israeli has penetrated the

645
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:59,680
Speaker 1: Iranian government. To know where specific officials are at any

646
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:03,279
Speaker 1: given time and even where they're going to be is

647
00:45:03,320 --> 00:45:08,279
Speaker 1: an intelligence achievement of extraordinary proportions. And so if I

648
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 1: were an Iranian, I would not believe that I could

649
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 1: keep anything secret at this point. So the question is,

650
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:16,200
Speaker 1: what do the Iranians decide to.

651
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:18,920
Speaker 2: Do right and if they'll have second thoughts as a

652
00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:19,719
Speaker 2: result of this.

653
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:22,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that question remains open.

654
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:26,640
Speaker 2: I know, as a former sect deaf our men and

655
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:29,720
Speaker 2: women in uniform are near and dear to your heart.

656
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:32,600
Speaker 2: I wanted to ask you a few questions about sort

657
00:45:32,600 --> 00:45:38,319
Speaker 2: of our military itself and its reputation. President Trump, as

658
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:40,919
Speaker 2: you know, deployed the National Guard and then the US

659
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:45,919
Speaker 2: Marines to Los Angeles over Governor Gavin Newsom's objections. It's

660
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:49,360
Speaker 2: the first such move without a governor's consent since nineteen

661
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 2: sixty five, I believe. Days later, he held a campaign

662
00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:57,600
Speaker 2: style rally at Fort Bragg, where uniform soldiers applauded as

663
00:45:57,640 --> 00:46:01,680
Speaker 2: he attacked political rivals. And then on January fourteenth, there

664
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 2: was a massive military parade, officially to mark the Army's

665
00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:09,840
Speaker 2: two hundred and fiftieth birthday, but conveniently timed to Donald

666
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 2: Trump's birthday. I wonder how you feel about the blatant

667
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:20,480
Speaker 2: politicization of our armed forces.

668
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:25,279
Speaker 1: I feel that, first of all that, and I expressed

669
00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 1: my concern to the chiefs of staff for both President

670
00:46:28,680 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 1: Bush and President Obama about events in which they used

671
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:39,160
Speaker 1: troops as a backdrop, and those were pretty innocent events,

672
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 1: but they weren't military events, but they still had troops

673
00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 1: in the background, and I've always been very nervous about that.

674
00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 1: You know, In terms of the deployment of the National Guard,

675
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:54,000
Speaker 1: first President Bush did it after the Rodney King attack,

676
00:46:54,640 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 1: so it's been done before. As you pointed out, I

677
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:05,240
Speaker 1: do have concerns about any protracted involvement of the National

678
00:47:05,280 --> 00:47:09,839
Speaker 1: Guard on American streets. The National Guard is the part

679
00:47:09,840 --> 00:47:13,080
Speaker 1: of our military that's closest to the people. People in

680
00:47:13,120 --> 00:47:16,279
Speaker 1: the National Guard are the folks you see out there

681
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:19,600
Speaker 1: after a flash flood or after a hurricane, or after

682
00:47:20,120 --> 00:47:23,719
Speaker 1: helping people and being seen as a positive influence and

683
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:27,920
Speaker 1: as somebody from the community helping the community. And I

684
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:31,600
Speaker 1: think preserving that image is a very important one. So

685
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 1: if the President is going to order the deployment of

686
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:36,960
Speaker 1: the National Guard, I think it needs to be for

687
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:41,520
Speaker 1: very limited periods of time until other law enforcement or

688
00:47:41,560 --> 00:47:44,800
Speaker 1: other authorities can be put in place, whether it's ICE

689
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:49,279
Speaker 1: or anybody else. I will say this about politicization of

690
00:47:49,320 --> 00:47:54,120
Speaker 1: the military, one of my biggest concerns, and I've had

691
00:47:54,160 --> 00:47:57,960
Speaker 1: it for a long time, has been really beginning in

692
00:47:58,040 --> 00:48:03,759
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety two the growing number of retired military who

693
00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:10,960
Speaker 1: become politically active and endorsing and campaigning with presidential campaigns

694
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 1: and others. And the problem that I have with it

695
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:19,319
Speaker 1: is that they appear on television and interviews and so

696
00:48:19,360 --> 00:48:22,080
Speaker 1: on and so forth. The problem that I have when

697
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:26,279
Speaker 1: they're politically engaged like that is that, first of all,

698
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:28,640
Speaker 1: if you didn't have general or admiral in front of

699
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:32,440
Speaker 1: their name, nobody would care what they thought. But the

700
00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:37,360
Speaker 1: other side of it is people often can't discern whether

701
00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:41,040
Speaker 1: they're still active duty or not. Are they speaking for

702
00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:45,600
Speaker 1: themselves or are they speaking for their institution and kind

703
00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:48,319
Speaker 1: of who do you represent on this? And if you

704
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:51,880
Speaker 1: have a bunch of them, then you're going to begin

705
00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 1: to think, well, gee, do all the people in that

706
00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:58,600
Speaker 1: institution believe the same thing that he does? And so

707
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:02,560
Speaker 1: if you have these people on the side of one candidate,

708
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:05,719
Speaker 1: then maybe the people on the other side are going

709
00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 1: to say, well, maybe I can't trust that institution if

710
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:12,759
Speaker 1: that's what those people believe. So I've believed for a

711
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:16,040
Speaker 1: long time that the active engagement, and I would say

712
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:21,240
Speaker 1: more recently the engagement of former senior intelligence officials creates

713
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:25,880
Speaker 1: the same question. If director weren't in front of their names,

714
00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:31,319
Speaker 1: who would care And do they represent the institution that

715
00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:33,880
Speaker 1: they led, or do they represent the views of the

716
00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 1: people in their institution so that people on the other

717
00:49:37,120 --> 00:49:39,840
Speaker 1: side of the aisle say, well, gee, maybe I can't

718
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 1: trust that institution at all. So having these retired national

719
00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:51,720
Speaker 1: security officials actively engaged in politics, in my view, undermines

720
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 1: the a political role of the military and the perception

721
00:49:57,960 --> 00:50:02,840
Speaker 1: of an a political military and creates an environment that

722
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:06,880
Speaker 1: makes it easier for politicians to try and make use

723
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 1: of the military. So I think this is a very

724
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:13,959
Speaker 1: complicated problem, and it goes back many years, and it's

725
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:17,799
Speaker 1: from both inside these institutions and the leaders who have

726
00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:22,600
Speaker 1: left those institutions, but also the politicians themselves. Politicians always

727
00:50:22,719 --> 00:50:27,760
Speaker 1: want the military to be present because the military still,

728
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:33,160
Speaker 1: despite everything, is the most respected institution in America, and

729
00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:38,279
Speaker 1: when people see somebody in uniform, they have more confidence

730
00:50:38,320 --> 00:50:41,560
Speaker 1: in that person as looking out for them in America's

731
00:50:41,560 --> 00:50:44,480
Speaker 1: interests than they do pretty much anybody else in the spectrum.

732
00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:48,000
Speaker 2: So are you talking about active duty and retired members

733
00:50:48,080 --> 00:50:48,880
Speaker 2: of the military.

734
00:50:49,239 --> 00:50:52,040
Speaker 1: I don't know of any instances where an active duty

735
00:50:52,120 --> 00:50:55,600
Speaker 1: person has actually been involved in a care right or

736
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:56,319
Speaker 1: speaking in.

737
00:50:56,800 --> 00:51:01,200
Speaker 2: Or opining about policy. I mean, it's interesting because my

738
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:03,520
Speaker 2: last question to you was going to be but I

739
00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:06,319
Speaker 2: have a lot more after this, was to ask you

740
00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:11,040
Speaker 2: about something the Atlantics. Tom Nichols recently called on and

741
00:51:11,080 --> 00:51:14,719
Speaker 2: that was for senior military officials, and I'm assuming he

742
00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:18,400
Speaker 2: needs active duty to quote speak up and be leaders.

743
00:51:18,840 --> 00:51:21,840
Speaker 2: This is what he wrote. The top officers of the

744
00:51:21,960 --> 00:51:25,960
Speaker 2: US military where eagles or stars on their shoulders that

745
00:51:26,160 --> 00:51:30,520
Speaker 2: give them great privilege as befits, people who assume responsibility

746
00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:33,080
Speaker 2: for the defense of the nation and the welfare of

747
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:36,160
Speaker 2: their troops. They command the power of life and death

748
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:39,760
Speaker 2: itself on the field of battle. But those ranks also

749
00:51:39,920 --> 00:51:45,960
Speaker 2: carry immense responsibility. If they are truly Washington's heirs, meaning

750
00:51:46,040 --> 00:51:50,360
Speaker 2: President Washington, they should speak up now and stand with

751
00:51:50,480 --> 00:51:55,280
Speaker 2: the first Commander in Chief, George Washington against the rogue

752
00:51:55,760 --> 00:51:56,600
Speaker 2: forty seven.

753
00:51:57,719 --> 00:52:01,640
Speaker 1: I think that's a big mistake. I think active duty

754
00:52:01,719 --> 00:52:08,319
Speaker 1: military should play no role in non military political matters.

755
00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:18,399
Speaker 2: Hi. Everyone, it's me Katie Couric. You know, if you've

756
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:21,200
Speaker 2: been following me on social media, you know I love

757
00:52:21,239 --> 00:52:24,400
Speaker 2: to cook, or at least try especially alongside some of

758
00:52:24,440 --> 00:52:28,160
Speaker 2: my favorite chefs and foodies like Benny Blanco, Jake Cohen,

759
00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 2: Lighty Hoyke, Alison Roman, and Ininagarten. So I started a

760
00:52:32,680 --> 00:52:36,279
Speaker 2: free newsletter called good Taste to share recipes, tips and

761
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:40,560
Speaker 2: kitchen mustaves. Just sign up at Katiecuric dot com slash

762
00:52:40,719 --> 00:52:43,680
Speaker 2: good Taste. That's k A t I E C O

763
00:52:43,840 --> 00:52:47,480
Speaker 2: U r I c dot com slash good Taste. I

764
00:52:47,600 --> 00:53:00,400
Speaker 2: promise your taste buds will be happy you did. I know.

765
00:53:00,520 --> 00:53:04,319
Speaker 2: You currently lead the Gates Global Policy Center, where much

766
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:07,400
Speaker 2: of your work focuses on how the US can strengthen

767
00:53:07,440 --> 00:53:12,359
Speaker 2: and modernize its non military tools of power like diplomacy,

768
00:53:12,560 --> 00:53:17,719
Speaker 2: economic influence, strategic communication, and development assistance, just as it

769
00:53:17,760 --> 00:53:21,279
Speaker 2: did during the Cold War. Why do you think this

770
00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 2: non military use of power is so essential?

771
00:53:25,480 --> 00:53:28,080
Speaker 1: It really has to do in my experience the Kadie

772
00:53:28,560 --> 00:53:31,760
Speaker 1: in the Cold War. The Cold War took place against

773
00:53:31,800 --> 00:53:34,279
Speaker 1: the backdrop of the biggest arms build up in the

774
00:53:34,360 --> 00:53:37,719
Speaker 1: history of the world, but because we were able to

775
00:53:37,800 --> 00:53:42,200
Speaker 1: avoid a military conflict with the Soviet Union, the outcome

776
00:53:42,280 --> 00:53:46,640
Speaker 1: of the Cold War was actually determined by non military

777
00:53:47,160 --> 00:53:52,560
Speaker 1: instruments of power. Above all, economics, our economic power and

778
00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:59,640
Speaker 1: their weakness, our technological superiority, but also strategic communications, our

779
00:53:59,680 --> 00:54:03,960
Speaker 1: world wide networks, the radios, Voice of America, Radio Free Europe,

780
00:54:04,120 --> 00:54:09,560
Speaker 1: Radio Free Asia and more, and the USIA libraries we

781
00:54:09,640 --> 00:54:13,719
Speaker 1: had all over the world, and so on our development assistance.

782
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 1: President Bush's program that he initiated the second President Bush

783
00:54:18,719 --> 00:54:24,000
Speaker 1: for being with HIV AIDS in Africa saved tens of

784
00:54:24,000 --> 00:54:27,000
Speaker 1: millions of lives. Everybody agrees with that, and that program

785
00:54:27,080 --> 00:54:31,400
Speaker 1: was supported long after he left office on a bipartisan basis,

786
00:54:31,480 --> 00:54:35,280
Speaker 1: and that kind of support had a big role, I think,

787
00:54:35,360 --> 00:54:37,879
Speaker 1: and you know that's post Cold War, but we had

788
00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:42,400
Speaker 1: similar kinds of programs for polio and other diseases. And

789
00:54:42,560 --> 00:54:48,239
Speaker 1: so these ideology, religion, all of these were instruments we

790
00:54:48,400 --> 00:54:52,440
Speaker 1: used in the contest against the Soviet Union. And so

791
00:54:52,600 --> 00:54:56,000
Speaker 1: what we try to do at the Gates Policy Center

792
00:54:56,280 --> 00:55:01,920
Speaker 1: is bring together each year on a specific subject economic tools,

793
00:55:02,320 --> 00:55:07,799
Speaker 1: development assistance, strategic communications, security assistance, people from both the

794
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:12,640
Speaker 1: administration and from Congress, both Republicans and Democrats, people from

795
00:55:12,640 --> 00:55:17,279
Speaker 1: the private sector, people from think tanks and scholars, and

796
00:55:17,840 --> 00:55:20,960
Speaker 1: all of these tools are in need of significant reform,

797
00:55:21,280 --> 00:55:26,279
Speaker 1: all have significant flaws, and to put together a menu

798
00:55:26,680 --> 00:55:31,480
Speaker 1: of recommended changes that we can provide to the Congress

799
00:55:31,520 --> 00:55:34,600
Speaker 1: and to the administration and say, you know, this would

800
00:55:34,640 --> 00:55:39,320
Speaker 1: have bipartisan support. If you understand and accept the importance

801
00:55:39,320 --> 00:55:42,960
Speaker 1: of this as part of your arsenal, then these are

802
00:55:43,000 --> 00:55:45,560
Speaker 1: the kinds of changes that you need to make. And

803
00:55:45,600 --> 00:55:48,319
Speaker 1: I'll just give you one example of how dysfunctional some

804
00:55:48,360 --> 00:55:53,280
Speaker 1: of these events. So strategic communications. You know, USIA played

805
00:55:53,280 --> 00:55:56,239
Speaker 1: a huge role in the in the Cold War. It

806
00:55:56,320 --> 00:56:00,239
Speaker 1: was dismantled in nineteen ninety eight by the Congress. But

807
00:56:00,440 --> 00:56:05,000
Speaker 1: now we have fourteen Cabinet departments and forty eight agencies

808
00:56:05,040 --> 00:56:10,120
Speaker 1: that do strategic communications internationally, and nobody coordinates them. There's

809
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:14,279
Speaker 1: no common messaging, there's no leadership, and there's no coordination.

810
00:56:14,560 --> 00:56:17,480
Speaker 1: So what can you accomplish? So the whole purpose of

811
00:56:17,520 --> 00:56:20,920
Speaker 1: the Center is to put together a menu of reform

812
00:56:21,000 --> 00:56:25,120
Speaker 1: measures that can make these more important, because if we

813
00:56:25,160 --> 00:56:29,799
Speaker 1: can avoid a military conflict with China, these tools will

814
00:56:29,800 --> 00:56:33,759
Speaker 1: be as important in the ongoing struggle with China as

815
00:56:33,800 --> 00:56:36,560
Speaker 1: they were in the struggle with the Soviet Union.

816
00:56:37,120 --> 00:56:40,440
Speaker 2: Well, this is a big argument. Obviously, secretory gates for

817
00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:45,000
Speaker 2: soft power, right, non military, what's called soft power so

818
00:56:45,840 --> 00:56:49,359
Speaker 2: I have to believe that you're not a fan of

819
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:55,680
Speaker 2: dismantling of USAID, particularly given what you said about George W.

820
00:56:55,800 --> 00:56:57,840
Speaker 2: Bush and petfar First of.

821
00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:01,840
Speaker 1: All, Congress tried to dismantle us AID in nineteen ninety

822
00:57:01,880 --> 00:57:07,000
Speaker 1: eight also, and President Clinton stopped it, but it became

823
00:57:07,040 --> 00:57:10,759
Speaker 1: a very different kind of agency after that. So when

824
00:57:10,800 --> 00:57:15,480
Speaker 1: I left government in nineteen ninety three, USAID had sixteen

825
00:57:15,560 --> 00:57:20,640
Speaker 1: thousand employees, dedicated people operating in inhospitable places all over

826
00:57:20,680 --> 00:57:27,240
Speaker 1: the world and doing healthcare, doing education, agronomy, veterinary medicine,

827
00:57:27,280 --> 00:57:29,360
Speaker 1: all those things, and they were out there in really

828
00:57:29,400 --> 00:57:33,080
Speaker 1: tough places. When I came back to government as Secretary

829
00:57:33,120 --> 00:57:36,240
Speaker 1: of Defense in two thousand and six, it was down

830
00:57:36,240 --> 00:57:40,520
Speaker 1: to three thousand people, largely managing contractors. I was struck

831
00:57:40,560 --> 00:57:45,560
Speaker 1: when USAID was dismantled. Not a single former Secretary of

832
00:57:45,640 --> 00:57:50,840
Speaker 1: State complained. There have been a lot of problems with USAID.

833
00:57:51,680 --> 00:57:54,360
Speaker 1: So the question is, and this goes to what I

834
00:57:54,400 --> 00:57:57,400
Speaker 1: was just talking about, what the Gates Center does, because

835
00:57:57,760 --> 00:58:01,640
Speaker 1: a number of the missions of USAID were so important,

836
00:58:02,040 --> 00:58:06,000
Speaker 1: whether it's in healthcare or in agriculture or other kinds

837
00:58:06,040 --> 00:58:10,280
Speaker 1: of assistance. How can we restructure this within the State

838
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:14,560
Speaker 1: Department to ensure that those missions get accomplished, but in

839
00:58:14,560 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 1: a much more effective way. So I think that's the

840
00:58:17,840 --> 00:58:21,360
Speaker 1: challenge that people face now. But the notion of just

841
00:58:21,520 --> 00:58:25,520
Speaker 1: killing programs like PEPFAR and these other programs, I think

842
00:58:25,680 --> 00:58:27,600
Speaker 1: that would be a serious mistake.

843
00:58:28,120 --> 00:58:30,680
Speaker 2: So it sounds to me like you believe it could

844
00:58:30,680 --> 00:58:37,000
Speaker 2: have been reformed or reimagined, but not necessarily dismantled altogether.

845
00:58:37,680 --> 00:58:40,640
Speaker 1: Maybe you did need to dismantle it, but there certainly

846
00:58:40,800 --> 00:58:44,560
Speaker 1: was a different way to do it that made clear

847
00:58:44,720 --> 00:58:48,919
Speaker 1: that there would be continuity in accomplishing these missions, so

848
00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:53,800
Speaker 1: that you would say, okay, if USAID, Well, first of all,

849
00:58:53,840 --> 00:58:58,360
Speaker 1: PEPFAR wasn't under USAID, it was independent under the State Department.

850
00:58:58,600 --> 00:59:02,240
Speaker 1: But some of these other the healthcare programs, who's going

851
00:59:02,320 --> 00:59:04,160
Speaker 1: to do that? How are we going to do it

852
00:59:04,160 --> 00:59:07,280
Speaker 1: in a different way and do it more cost effectively

853
00:59:07,480 --> 00:59:11,480
Speaker 1: and more effectively. But there's a way to change things,

854
00:59:11,560 --> 00:59:13,440
Speaker 1: and I changed a lot of things when I was

855
00:59:13,480 --> 00:59:17,160
Speaker 1: in the Department of Defense. There's a way to reform

856
00:59:17,320 --> 00:59:22,640
Speaker 1: these organizations and make them work better without basically throwing

857
00:59:22,640 --> 00:59:24,320
Speaker 1: the baby out with the bath water.

858
00:59:24,800 --> 00:59:27,919
Speaker 2: Do you think there is the political will, though, now

859
00:59:28,000 --> 00:59:33,520
Speaker 2: that usaidea is essentially gone, is there the political will

860
00:59:34,000 --> 00:59:37,400
Speaker 2: and the understanding of the importance of soft power in

861
00:59:37,480 --> 00:59:39,640
Speaker 2: the Trump administration to want to do that.

862
00:59:40,840 --> 00:59:44,280
Speaker 1: I'm not sure there is. I'm very concerned about the

863
00:59:44,480 --> 00:59:49,640
Speaker 1: shutting down of the Voice of America. Again, big problems

864
00:59:49,680 --> 00:59:52,200
Speaker 1: needed to be reformed, but I think there was a

865
00:59:52,240 --> 00:59:54,920
Speaker 1: way to do that. But these are the ways we

866
00:59:55,000 --> 00:59:57,320
Speaker 1: communicate to the rest of the world who we are,

867
00:59:57,400 --> 01:00:00,200
Speaker 1: what we stand for, defend our policies, and so on

868
01:00:00,920 --> 01:00:05,800
Speaker 1: and so Now I think a lot depends on the

869
01:00:05,880 --> 01:00:10,600
Speaker 1: leadership of Secretary Rubio. He's now in charge of these programs.

870
01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:14,680
Speaker 1: He needs to figure out a way to identify and

871
01:00:14,760 --> 01:00:19,680
Speaker 1: persuade the President and the Congress how to preserve the

872
01:00:19,720 --> 01:00:23,520
Speaker 1: most important of these programs, and how to structure the

873
01:00:23,560 --> 01:00:25,520
Speaker 1: State Department to make them work.

874
01:00:25,640 --> 01:00:28,480
Speaker 2: And have you talked to him about it? No, do

875
01:00:28,520 --> 01:00:31,160
Speaker 2: you plan to talk to him about it anytime?

876
01:00:31,400 --> 01:00:32,480
Speaker 1: I would be prepared to.

877
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:37,320
Speaker 2: The Gates Global Policy Center's most recent report argues that

878
01:00:37,360 --> 01:00:41,479
Speaker 2: we've been overly reliant on sanctions, and I'm curious if

879
01:00:41,720 --> 01:00:45,360
Speaker 2: you believe sanctions work or that we've just gone back

880
01:00:45,400 --> 01:00:48,000
Speaker 2: to that well too many times.

881
01:00:48,080 --> 01:00:52,000
Speaker 1: There's something like nineteen thousand sanctions in effect right now.

882
01:00:52,760 --> 01:00:56,560
Speaker 1: And one of the things that I observe is that

883
01:00:57,160 --> 01:01:01,400
Speaker 1: you now corporations have to have whole batteries of lawyers

884
01:01:01,920 --> 01:01:07,280
Speaker 1: to determine whether they're complying with all these sanctions against institutions, countries,

885
01:01:07,320 --> 01:01:11,600
Speaker 1: and individuals around the world. I think we've overused them.

886
01:01:12,200 --> 01:01:14,760
Speaker 1: I think they have a place. There have been occasions

887
01:01:14,760 --> 01:01:18,160
Speaker 1: when they've been successful. I think the sanctions were helpful

888
01:01:18,160 --> 01:01:21,840
Speaker 1: in getting rid of the Libyan nuclear program. They certainly

889
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:25,640
Speaker 1: were helpful in getting rid of white supremacy and what

890
01:01:25,800 --> 01:01:29,840
Speaker 1: was then Rhodesia and South Africa. But I think it's

891
01:01:29,880 --> 01:01:34,600
Speaker 1: too easy as a default to impose sanctions because it

892
01:01:34,640 --> 01:01:38,560
Speaker 1: doesn't have any apparent costs, and it's never very controversial

893
01:01:38,640 --> 01:01:41,560
Speaker 1: and so on. It's sort of like it used to

894
01:01:41,600 --> 01:01:43,720
Speaker 1: be that if we didn't want to use the military

895
01:01:43,760 --> 01:01:46,080
Speaker 1: and we didn't think diplomacy would work, they would just

896
01:01:46,120 --> 01:01:47,840
Speaker 1: turn to see Ia say well, let's just do some

897
01:01:47,880 --> 01:01:51,280
Speaker 1: covert action. So the same thing as kind of the

898
01:01:51,360 --> 01:01:54,520
Speaker 1: default with sanctions now. And I think here's one of

899
01:01:54,560 --> 01:01:58,680
Speaker 1: the challenges, how do you effectively integrate the use of

900
01:01:58,800 --> 01:02:06,040
Speaker 1: sanctions and technology, export bans and tariffs. To have a

901
01:02:06,200 --> 01:02:11,600
Speaker 1: consolidated economic policy that maximizes your strengths and minimizes the

902
01:02:11,640 --> 01:02:15,040
Speaker 1: consequences are costs to you. And figuring out how to

903
01:02:15,440 --> 01:02:19,200
Speaker 1: put all that together I think has been absent for

904
01:02:19,280 --> 01:02:21,600
Speaker 1: a long time, not just in this administration.

905
01:02:22,200 --> 01:02:25,680
Speaker 2: Are you worried about all these tariffs, Secretary Gates?

906
01:02:26,280 --> 01:02:30,000
Speaker 1: Well, again, this is one of those situations where we

907
01:02:30,160 --> 01:02:35,680
Speaker 1: allowed a situation to develop over decades in which many

908
01:02:35,720 --> 01:02:40,360
Speaker 1: countries had unequal trade relationships with the United States in

909
01:02:40,400 --> 01:02:45,280
Speaker 1: the sense that they had certain taxes, certain barriers to

910
01:02:45,400 --> 01:02:49,200
Speaker 1: trade at tariffs. The EU is a good example that

911
01:02:49,360 --> 01:02:53,200
Speaker 1: is true in other countries. And my view is that

912
01:02:53,640 --> 01:02:56,800
Speaker 1: I think it's a mistake to use tariffs to try

913
01:02:56,840 --> 01:02:59,920
Speaker 1: and generate revenue for the United States. The question is,

914
01:03:00,360 --> 01:03:04,960
Speaker 1: how do you use tariffs punitively to level the playing

915
01:03:05,000 --> 01:03:08,920
Speaker 1: field so that the rules that apply to us apply

916
01:03:09,200 --> 01:03:11,960
Speaker 1: to the other side as well. And I mean, I

917
01:03:12,000 --> 01:03:14,560
Speaker 1: think that's one of the challenges that we've had for

918
01:03:14,640 --> 01:03:19,280
Speaker 1: decades with China. There's been a big significant imbalance here.

919
01:03:19,800 --> 01:03:22,560
Speaker 1: But instead of one hundred and forty five percent tariffs,

920
01:03:22,560 --> 01:03:25,680
Speaker 1: how do you level the playing field in a way

921
01:03:25,760 --> 01:03:28,840
Speaker 1: that still generates revenue, maybe not as much as you

922
01:03:28,920 --> 01:03:32,600
Speaker 1: want it, but also makes it a fair game for

923
01:03:32,800 --> 01:03:37,080
Speaker 1: American companies trying to do business overseas, and that's where

924
01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:40,640
Speaker 1: we've been disadvantaged. And I think the recent example of

925
01:03:40,720 --> 01:03:45,080
Speaker 1: the Canadians imposing this digital tax on US companies to

926
01:03:45,120 --> 01:03:50,640
Speaker 1: win countries, or the EU disadvantage American companies like that,

927
01:03:51,120 --> 01:03:53,720
Speaker 1: then I think that's a legitimate approach to try and

928
01:03:53,800 --> 01:03:56,760
Speaker 1: figure out how to make the situation fairer.

929
01:03:57,680 --> 01:04:00,800
Speaker 2: I know we're out of time, Can I ask you

930
01:04:00,840 --> 01:04:02,280
Speaker 2: one last question?

931
01:04:02,880 --> 01:04:03,200
Speaker 1: Sure?

932
01:04:03,600 --> 01:04:07,360
Speaker 2: Because I thought this was so interesting. A recent ug

933
01:04:07,400 --> 01:04:11,360
Speaker 2: of survey shows a sharp decline in the number of

934
01:04:11,440 --> 01:04:17,080
Speaker 2: veterans who would recommend military service, going from eighty percent

935
01:04:17,440 --> 01:04:21,680
Speaker 2: to just sixty two percent in five years, and many

936
01:04:21,840 --> 01:04:26,640
Speaker 2: cite mistrust of political leadership and discomfort with DEI and

937
01:04:26,720 --> 01:04:31,560
Speaker 2: other social policies, and nearly all oppose racial quotas in

938
01:04:31,600 --> 01:04:35,000
Speaker 2: the officer corps. I'm curious what you think of that

939
01:04:35,400 --> 01:04:40,360
Speaker 2: and what it suggests about the ongoing debate about DEI

940
01:04:40,440 --> 01:04:43,720
Speaker 2: and the military. And I would love to hear your

941
01:04:43,880 --> 01:04:48,040
Speaker 2: view on this war on DEI, if you will. In

942
01:04:48,120 --> 01:04:50,360
Speaker 2: all aspects of American society.

943
01:04:50,400 --> 01:04:54,400
Speaker 1: Really, I think that the way I put it when

944
01:04:54,440 --> 01:04:58,439
Speaker 1: I was president of Texas A and M, I put

945
01:04:58,480 --> 01:05:02,160
Speaker 1: in rules when it came to admit that said we're

946
01:05:02,200 --> 01:05:05,720
Speaker 1: going to have merit based admissions. We're not going to

947
01:05:05,760 --> 01:05:09,640
Speaker 1: do affirmative action. We're also not going to do legacy.

948
01:05:10,240 --> 01:05:12,160
Speaker 1: If you get in here, you get in here on

949
01:05:12,200 --> 01:05:15,160
Speaker 1: your own merits. But then I devoted a lot of

950
01:05:15,200 --> 01:05:19,200
Speaker 1: effort to going around to high schools around Texas and

951
01:05:19,320 --> 01:05:24,880
Speaker 1: particularly predominantly minority high schools, telling him how welcome they

952
01:05:24,880 --> 01:05:26,640
Speaker 1: are at Texas A and M. And I would take

953
01:05:26,680 --> 01:05:29,880
Speaker 1: a student from that high school with me who was

954
01:05:29,920 --> 01:05:33,080
Speaker 1: at A and M to talk about his or her experience.

955
01:05:33,880 --> 01:05:38,160
Speaker 1: So I've not been a believer in these things or

956
01:05:38,240 --> 01:05:42,760
Speaker 1: quotas and so on. But I also believe that institutions

957
01:05:43,240 --> 01:05:47,680
Speaker 1: need to look like the people they represent. So I

958
01:05:47,840 --> 01:05:51,000
Speaker 1: thought Texas A and M needed to look more like

959
01:05:51,160 --> 01:05:55,840
Speaker 1: the state of Texas demographically, but we were going to

960
01:05:55,920 --> 01:05:57,880
Speaker 1: do it based on merit and I'm One of my

961
01:05:58,000 --> 01:06:01,400
Speaker 1: favorite emails that I ever as president of A and

962
01:06:01,520 --> 01:06:05,960
Speaker 1: M was from an African American woman student who said, finally,

963
01:06:06,040 --> 01:06:09,040
Speaker 1: when people ask me how I got here, I tell

964
01:06:09,080 --> 01:06:11,560
Speaker 1: them I got here the same way you did. I

965
01:06:11,800 --> 01:06:14,960
Speaker 1: earned it, and I think that holds us true for

966
01:06:15,040 --> 01:06:18,680
Speaker 1: the military. For other institutions as well, I think they

967
01:06:18,760 --> 01:06:21,840
Speaker 1: need to be merit based. I think people need to

968
01:06:21,880 --> 01:06:23,920
Speaker 1: be able to perform, but I also think it's a

969
01:06:23,960 --> 01:06:27,840
Speaker 1: responsibility of leaders to do what they can to make

970
01:06:27,880 --> 01:06:31,560
Speaker 1: sure their institutions look like the people they represent.

971
01:06:32,800 --> 01:06:37,360
Speaker 2: Secretary Robert Gates, Bob Gates, I so appreciate your time.

972
01:06:37,400 --> 01:06:40,560
Speaker 2: I note this took a while to schedule, but you've

973
01:06:40,600 --> 01:06:45,360
Speaker 2: been so generous. Thank you. I always appreciate your perspective

974
01:06:45,400 --> 01:06:48,280
Speaker 2: and hopefully we can have a conversation again in the

975
01:06:48,320 --> 01:06:51,560
Speaker 2: near future, because one thing is certain, the world is

976
01:06:51,680 --> 01:06:56,560
Speaker 2: changing every day and there will always be plenty to

977
01:06:56,640 --> 01:06:57,320
Speaker 2: talk about.

978
01:06:57,600 --> 01:07:04,680
Speaker 1: It's a pleasure to be with you again, Katie.

979
01:07:06,640 --> 01:07:09,880
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening. Everyone. If you have a question for me,

980
01:07:10,280 --> 01:07:12,760
Speaker 2: a subject you want us to cover, or you want

981
01:07:12,800 --> 01:07:16,160
Speaker 2: to share your thoughts about how you navigate this crazy world,

982
01:07:16,520 --> 01:07:19,760
Speaker 2: reach out send me a DM on Instagram. I would

983
01:07:19,800 --> 01:07:22,840
Speaker 2: love to hear from you. Next Question is a production

984
01:07:22,960 --> 01:07:27,440
Speaker 2: of iHeartMedia and Katie Couric Media. The executive producers are Me,

985
01:07:27,760 --> 01:07:32,400
Speaker 2: Katie Kuric, and Courtney Ltz. Our supervising producer is Ryan Martz,

986
01:07:32,920 --> 01:07:37,760
Speaker 2: and our producers are Adriana Fazzio and Meredith Barnes. Julian

987
01:07:37,840 --> 01:07:42,880
Speaker 2: Weller composed our theme music. For more information about today's episode,

988
01:07:43,120 --> 01:07:45,479
Speaker 2: or to sign up for my newsletter, wake Up Call,

989
01:07:45,960 --> 01:07:48,840
Speaker 2: go to the description in the podcast app, or visit

990
01:07:48,960 --> 01:07:52,120
Speaker 2: us at Katiecuric dot com. You can also find me

991
01:07:52,200 --> 01:07:55,919
Speaker 2: on Instagram and all my social media channels. For more

992
01:07:56,000 --> 01:08:01,320
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993
01:08:01,360 --> 01:08:10,080
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