Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Welcome to the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: This Weekend podcast with David Gura, Christina Raffini, and Lisa Matteo.
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us for today's selection of conversations from
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Speaker 5: We are going to talk about energy.
Speaker 2: Oil prices above ninety dollars a barrel that's up about
Speaker 2: thirty six percent in a week.
Speaker 5: Gas prices three dollars.
Speaker 2: Forty five cents a gallon that is up about forty
Speaker 2: five cents in a week.
Speaker 3: Daniel, You're been writing in The Financial Times on Friday
Speaker 3: of this week in an opinion piece titled is the
Speaker 3: Nightmare Scenario.
Speaker 6: For Global Energy? Here I'll read a little bit from it.
Speaker 3: Current oil prices in the nineties are far from the
Speaker 3: worst case scenario, but right now the world is looking
Speaker 3: at the biggest disruption in oil production in history, as
Speaker 3: well as a resounding shock to global gas markets. The
Speaker 3: key question for global energy, he writes, is the duration
Speaker 3: of this explosive war. Dan jorg And the Pultzer Price
Speaker 3: winning author of the prize the Epicquest for Oil, Money
Speaker 3: and Power, author of the New Map Energy, Climate, and
Speaker 3: the Clash of Nations, joins us now here on set,
Speaker 3: New York. He's the vice chairman of S and P Global. Dan,
Speaker 3: great to have you thank with us.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much. Although we did say in the
Speaker 2: break you are dressed a little better than us here
Speaker 2: on the weekend.
Speaker 6: It's a lovely time overdressed well. Correct that.
Speaker 3: Next time, I want to start with just a broad
Speaker 3: question about the gravity of this moment. You get to
Speaker 3: it in that piece in the ft. How do you
Speaker 3: look at this in the broad sweep of history, the
Speaker 3: moment that we're in right now, and the potential for
Speaker 3: this being a conflict that doesn't last a matter of
Speaker 3: days or weeks, as the President initially said, but bu
Speaker 3: indeed drags on longer than that.
Speaker 4: It is at least it points to the possibility of
Speaker 4: the nightmare scenario that has really been there for half
Speaker 4: a century, ever since Iran erupted in revolution and set
Speaker 4: off an oil shock at the end of the nineteen seventies. So,
Speaker 4: but this is at the scale that we're seeing now,
Speaker 4: there's nothing comparable to it.
Speaker 3: And what does that mean when you say the nightmare scenario, Well,
Speaker 3: at least that out for us, And what should we
Speaker 3: be expecting or fear.
Speaker 4: I guess a nightmare scenario would be a war that
Speaker 4: goes on long time, a disruption that goes out on
Speaker 4: a long time. Prices really skyrocketing in ninety is high,
Speaker 4: but it's not skyrocketing with major impacts on financial markets,
Speaker 4: and ultimately the world economy plummeting into a recession that
Speaker 4: is more or less this nightmare scenario. That's not where
Speaker 4: that's not where we are, and this would have to
Speaker 4: go on longer and also have to see considerable damage
Speaker 4: of the infrastructure in the.
Speaker 2: Region, which concerns you more when it comes to possible
Speaker 2: runian outcomes, a more conservative regime that is less likely
Speaker 2: to collaborate or cooperate with other world's economic indicators, or
Speaker 2: a total power vacuum. And can you talk about what
Speaker 2: the difference would be to the oil global oil markets
Speaker 2: and production.
Speaker 4: Well, it's you know, it's hard to imagine a totally
Speaker 4: chaotic Iran. Nobody's in control, and there are ethnic divisions
Speaker 4: in the country that would tie it apart. But I
Speaker 4: think there is a question of imagining what kind of
Speaker 4: organization would rule the country other than what it has today,
Speaker 4: and would it give up would it give up its
Speaker 4: revolutionary zeal, its antagonism to the West, its effort to
Speaker 4: dominate its region, and go back to being what might
Speaker 4: be called a normal country and a country that's focused
Speaker 4: on economic growth and development and doesn't running short of
Speaker 4: water as it is right now.
Speaker 3: When you look at the news overnight that the UAE's
Speaker 3: cutting back production, Kuwait's cutting back production. We see the
Speaker 3: changes that Saudi Arabia's making, shifting more of its oil
Speaker 3: through pipelines and not through the straight uformies. What does
Speaker 3: that tell you the way that these countries are reacting
Speaker 3: to this, about the trajectory of it going forward.
Speaker 5: In a way.
Speaker 4: If you may not remember during COVID, when all the
Speaker 4: storage was filled up because the market demand plummeted, people
Speaker 4: didn't know what to do with oil, and in.
Speaker 5: Fact it's stotting on the negative, right, Yeah, oil.
Speaker 6: Prices went negative.
Speaker 4: That's kind of not a full analogy, but that's where
Speaker 4: they are right now.
Speaker 6: They can't put this.
Speaker 4: You have a very complicated, integrated system that goes from
Speaker 4: pumping oil, processing it, getting into tankers, shipping it to markets,
Speaker 4: and that system isn't working now. It's bottled up and
Speaker 4: so that there's no place to put the oil and
Speaker 4: you run out of Basically, the countries are running out
Speaker 4: of storage and the only thing to do then is
Speaker 4: cut back production.
Speaker 2: I also want to ask you about that bottled up
Speaker 2: and the bottleneck in the Strait of hor Moves.
Speaker 5: We've got some sound from the President. We want to
Speaker 5: play you.
Speaker 6: What about the strain of Horror Moves. There's no traffic
Speaker 6: really going through a round.
Speaker 7: That's you know, the ship's choices. But we haven't cleaned out.
Speaker 7: We've wiped out their navy. The navy is now at
Speaker 7: the bottom of the sea. So that's the choice. This
Speaker 7: is an excurageon we figured to oil prices. We go up,
Speaker 7: which say, will they'll also come down? They'll come down
Speaker 7: very fast. What I've gotten rid of a major cancer
Speaker 7: by the faces of the earth.
Speaker 2: The President has been trying to encourage the shipping to continue,
Speaker 2: saying the US will help ensure. The US could even
Speaker 2: escort some armadas of ships as they go through. Is
Speaker 2: that realistic? And if you were a producer, would you
Speaker 2: take that risk with your assets?
Speaker 6: I think it is a very big risk.
Speaker 4: Obviously, people still have insurance, but it's now war rates,
Speaker 4: so it's gone way up. And of course the administration
Speaker 4: is said that they will ensure ships if they can't
Speaker 4: get commercial insurance. But the risk is that a lot
Speaker 4: of the Iranian navy has been destroyed, but there's still drones,
Speaker 4: and there's still explosive speedboats that could fast boats. Yeah,
Speaker 4: that would put a tanker at risk, and so you
Speaker 4: have to be very bold and at least as I
Speaker 4: understand that the escorts, they're not ready to do that
Speaker 4: yet because the naval ships are focused on the war
Speaker 4: and protecting US battleships. I mean, we did have in
Speaker 4: nineteen eighty seven, the US provided escorts to Kuwaiti tankers,
Speaker 4: but there weren't any drones.
Speaker 3: Then I look back on the last week and there
Speaker 3: was that moment when the Treasury Sectory went on a
Speaker 3: rival network. He was on CNBC and he floated the
Speaker 3: possibility of the administration doing more and investors.
Speaker 6: Responded positively to that. As vague as the comment was,
Speaker 6: I did he did he define more? Did he more?
Speaker 3: No, there is a generalized lack of definition, I think
Speaker 3: on many fronts here. But that gets to my question,
Speaker 3: which is Christina asks about there being kind of escorts,
Speaker 3: naval escorts, perhaps additional insurance that's backed up or provided
Speaker 3: by the US government. When you look at kind of
Speaker 3: the panoply of policy options that could be presented by
Speaker 3: this administration, what would make the most difference to industry
Speaker 3: at this point in time, what was actually marching uncertainty?
Speaker 6: What would actually help?
Speaker 4: But what would be the end of the attacks? I
Speaker 4: mean that would be it. It's very simple. And we
Speaker 4: know that that the air war is aimed at the
Speaker 4: missile launchers, trying to knock them out one by one
Speaker 4: they open up and get them. They're in these missile
Speaker 4: cities that Iran has. So I think it's trying to
Speaker 4: get Iran to a position where it's simply is toothless.
Speaker 6: That's the objective.
Speaker 4: And the President has talked about unconditional surrendered, not sure
Speaker 4: what that means.
Speaker 6: Or less definition there as well.
Speaker 4: And remember the Iran it's a divided leadership and as
Speaker 4: well as a decimated leadership.
Speaker 2: We're waiting this morning to see if they have chosen
Speaker 2: a new leader, but unclear. You know, it won't be
Speaker 2: the same power center that COMMANI had.
Speaker 8: I mean, he had been at it for a long time.
Speaker 8: I'm curious how you see the price where you see
Speaker 8: the price going from here? So it's been an incredibly
Speaker 8: fast move, as you point out in your pieces, we've
Speaker 8: seen over the course of the week, and you know,
Speaker 8: we're talking about the prospects of one hundred dollars barrel
Speaker 8: last weekend. Where do you see the price going from here?
Speaker 3: And I think there's a question a lot of people
Speaker 3: have on their minds, which is what is the lag
Speaker 3: between that happening we see even more manifested pump higher
Speaker 3: gas prices.
Speaker 4: Well, I think that you know, there are all sorts
Speaker 4: of predictions out there. You hear people saying, you know,
Speaker 4: it's over one hundred or one hundred and fifty. I mean,
Speaker 4: I think these are notional ideas that clearly all the
Speaker 4: pressures are for the price to go up. You have
Speaker 4: lost twenty percent of world oil, you've lost twenty percent
Speaker 4: of energy, and as a result of that, markets you're
Speaker 4: going to get people bidding for supplies. We see tankers
Speaker 4: that we're going to carry energy to Europe now being
Speaker 4: diverted to Asia. So you know, everything points to higher prices.
Speaker 4: Where the limit is really depends upon event. And why
Speaker 4: I say what's most important thing is duration. Does this
Speaker 4: go on a week? Does this go on a month?
Speaker 4: And that has different consequences.
Speaker 2: As you look at this conflict and the economic story
Speaker 2: part of this, as we talk about it, as we've
Speaker 2: all talked about it, what are people missing? What is
Speaker 2: the most important thing that you think people are overlooking
Speaker 2: in this conflict and how it's impacting the economies.
Speaker 4: Well, to me, one thing is that we do have resilience.
Speaker 4: We're not in the position we would have been a
Speaker 4: decade or two ago. Because the US is now the
Speaker 4: world's largest oil producer. That gives security that we didn't
Speaker 4: have before. You have production going up elsewhere. You have
Speaker 4: candidate four million barrels a day. Brazil is four million
Speaker 4: barrels a day, which is four times by the way
Speaker 4: Venezuela is currently produced. Just so, there are alternatives and
Speaker 4: their strategic stocks which were created in the nineteen seventies
Speaker 4: in response to the threat of the disruption of supply
Speaker 4: coming from the Gulf. So you have all of those
Speaker 4: factors at work. You also have the Saudi have an
Speaker 4: East West network that can move oil to the Red Sea,
Speaker 4: So it isn't those are things that need to be
Speaker 4: kept in mind even as we look at an unprecedented situation.
Speaker 6: You bring upose strategic reservis there's one in the US.
Speaker 3: Of course, the President has talked a couple of times
Speaker 3: about the prospects of drawing that down. What is the
Speaker 3: calculus the president must use in a moment like this
Speaker 3: to decide. That's of course used by President Biden as
Speaker 3: the war began in Ukraine. What should the present be
Speaker 3: thinking about when it comes to whether or not to
Speaker 3: the plan.
Speaker 4: This is a much more serious disruption of oil than
Speaker 4: the ones that President Biden responded to.
Speaker 6: We also saw it used at.
Speaker 4: Various times on the eve of certain presidential elections when
Speaker 4: gasoline prices go up. As we know, gasoline prices are
Speaker 4: the most sensitive prices in the country, particularly sensitive in
Speaker 4: an election year. So I think that it will be
Speaker 4: a judgment that this you need to send it into
Speaker 4: the market to reassure the markets. I remember that on
Speaker 4: the eve of the Gulf War nineteen ninety one, they
Speaker 4: released the strategic reserves and the price, instead of going
Speaker 4: up as people thought, went down. So I think I
Speaker 4: would expect and it's not only the US, but you
Speaker 4: have all these other Ia countries and China has built
Speaker 4: up huge reserves that those will be used.
Speaker 2: I think we want to talk more about China, We
Speaker 2: want to talk more about Russia. We want to talk
Speaker 2: more about several things, which is why we're keeping you
Speaker 2: captive here in our green room, and we will be
Speaker 2: back with you shortly after we cover a few other things.
Speaker 6: Yes, great to have with us here on Zet.
Speaker 3: Dan Jerg advice chairman of vest in p Global again
Speaker 3: the author of the prize the Epiquest for Oil, Money
Speaker 3: and Power. Of course that book the winner the Pulitzer Prize.
Speaker 3: Most recently author of the New Map Energy, Climate and
Speaker 3: the Clash of Nations.
Speaker 2: Yes, thank you for making me feel slightly smart, Dan,
Speaker 2: I really appreciate it.
Speaker 3: Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend. Right
Speaker 3: after this.
Speaker 6: Prim mins from that. Yeah, who spoke yesterday in Israel.
Speaker 3: Quote a little bit from what he had to say
Speaker 3: to how today well organized plan with many surprises and
Speaker 3: suggested there are many more objectives, which he declined to
Speaker 3: list during that speech. On Saturday, I want to turn
Speaker 3: out to former Ambassador tom Nydes He was the US
Speaker 3: ambassador to Israel from twenty twenty one to twenty twenty
Speaker 3: three and joins us on this Sunday morning. Ambassador, thank
Speaker 3: you very much for the time, and I want to
Speaker 3: start with a broad question, and that is, as we
Speaker 3: approach the second week of this war, how clear to
Speaker 3: you are the strategic objectives for Israel in this conflict.
Speaker 9: Well, first of all, thank you for having this early morning.
Speaker 9: I think God I got the clock straight. I got
Speaker 9: you and me both.
Speaker 2: This is a big concern for everyone. Ambassador. We're very
Speaker 2: proud of you.
Speaker 6: Yeah, let me listen.
Speaker 9: You know, one thing I've learned in my career here
Speaker 9: is foreign policy is very complicated. A lot of things
Speaker 9: can be true. At the same time, there's no question
Speaker 9: that all of us understand that Iran as a wicked
Speaker 9: regime what they have done in the last you know,
Speaker 9: multiple decades, But certainly it's proven by what's happened here
Speaker 9: in the last couple of weeks. Not only have they
Speaker 9: killed you know, thousands of sounds of their own people
Speaker 9: who were protesting. But then they decided, which they've always done,
Speaker 9: is turned the guns on Israel, which we have known
Speaker 9: for and done seeing and witness for a long period
Speaker 9: of time, both through their proxies between Hamas and Hezbollah
Speaker 9: and the UTIs.
Speaker 6: They made a strategic decision.
Speaker 9: To there some of their allies in the Middle East,
Speaker 9: including Sairabia, Koway Cutter, the UEE that totally changed it
Speaker 9: in amics here. So one one for sure is that
Speaker 9: this is very complicated, and certainly, certainly for my person,
Speaker 9: I have no tears loss for uh the Supreme Leader.
Speaker 9: The other issue I think is obviously what you've been
Speaker 9: talking about on the air a lot, is what the
Speaker 9: endgame is. And I think you know when when the
Speaker 9: Prime Minister and the President talk about regime change, you know,
Speaker 9: I've been around this for a long time, and I
Speaker 9: was involved in Afghanistan and in Iraq and Libya. Last
Speaker 9: time I checked, there is in Jeffersony democracies in those countries.
Speaker 9: So this is really complicated, guys, and we're going to
Speaker 9: have to all watch this play out in the next
Speaker 9: couple of weeks.
Speaker 2: I want to ask you about that relationship between the
Speaker 2: Prime Minister and the president and how much influence Benjamin
Speaker 2: now who has over President Trump. We've got a statement
Speaker 2: from the Iranian Foreign minister saying that who was duped
Speaker 2: into conflict? He says, they, meaning the American people, have
Speaker 2: ended up with an administration that Netanyahu, after decades of
Speaker 2: failed attempts, finally managed to dupe into fighting Israel's war.
Speaker 2: What's your take on that and how influential do you
Speaker 2: think Israel was in convincing Washington to make this decision.
Speaker 9: Well, first of all, I don't think I'm going to
Speaker 9: be suggesting that the Iranian spokesperson actually knows what he's
Speaker 9: talking about.
Speaker 6: I think there's a couple of things.
Speaker 9: First of all, no one regards if you love Israel,
Speaker 9: don't believe that what Iran has been doing to Israel
Speaker 9: through its proxies. Look what they did with Kamas, Look
Speaker 9: what they did with Kama, with Hesblad, Look what they
Speaker 9: did their own people. So the idea that somehow people
Speaker 9: have been duped into up realizing that Iran as a
Speaker 9: bad actor is ridiculous.
Speaker 6: You know, I do I think that.
Speaker 9: You know, when I worked for President Biden, we supported
Speaker 9: Israel when the Iranians attacked Israel for the first time.
Speaker 9: You know, I supported them in defense but also offensively
Speaker 9: as well well. So I don't think anyone's necessarily called
Speaker 9: pushing Donald Trump around. I think that's somewhat absurd. I
Speaker 9: do think it is important to step back, and I
Speaker 9: understand two things. One is we have to understand what
Speaker 9: the objectives of this is. How do we determine what
Speaker 9: success is. I'm not sure success is necessarily quote regime change,
Speaker 9: but one will have to debate that. And I do
Speaker 9: believe Congress has a role here, guys. I think it's
Speaker 9: important for us to understand that, and I think that
Speaker 9: we'll be debated for a long period of time the
Speaker 9: role of Congress as relates to this particular war.
Speaker 3: You bring up Hesbal, and I want to ask you
Speaker 3: about Lebanon, because we've seen Israel's attacks now kind of
Speaker 3: venture into Lebanon more and more. And I'm going to
Speaker 3: play a little bit of sound here from Israel's Defense minister,
Speaker 3: Israel cats on what they're doing there in Lebanon.
Speaker 6: Let's take a listen what you have to say in.
Speaker 3: The government of Lebanon and Lebanon will pay a eavy
Speaker 3: price if destroyed Lebanon, nime cossme they will also ruin it.
Speaker 3: And again, investor, you see this kind of renewed focus
Speaker 3: on Lebanon and Israel claiming there's no sort of territorial
Speaker 3: claim to Lebanon. What do you make of the way
Speaker 3: that this war is moving again into that country, not
Speaker 3: just in Iran, but into Lebanon as well.
Speaker 9: I don't know if you've been to Israel, and I'm
Speaker 9: sure some of you guys on this on the certain
Speaker 9: viewers who are watching us. You know, Lebanon shares a
Speaker 9: border with Israel, as you know, and it's right in
Speaker 9: the northern border. It's a huge risk and certainly has
Speaker 9: Blah has shown to be a terrible actor again a
Speaker 9: proxy of the Iranians. And I think you know we've seen,
Speaker 9: you know, it's eight months ago and a lot of
Speaker 9: intense fighting to diminish has Bla. You have a leader
Speaker 9: now in Lebanon who the President of the United States
Speaker 9: has met with. I think ultimately this is going to
Speaker 9: be continued to be a huge area of friction. Israel
Speaker 9: believes it has Blah has not been destroyed. It certainly
Speaker 9: hasn't been dismantled, they've been weakened, and certainly there's the
Speaker 9: state sponsor of their terrorism, which is Iran, has been weakened.
Speaker 9: But it's a huge threat to Israel, and so listen
Speaker 9: I I for one, have been big advocate of obviously
Speaker 9: strengthening the President of Lebanon to attempt to try to
Speaker 9: make these ob sectarian things come together. But it's hugely
Speaker 9: problematic for the Israelis and certainly those Israelis who are
Speaker 9: living in the northern part of the country.
Speaker 2: I want to shift a little bit and ask you,
Speaker 2: because you weren't ambassador, because you're in the State Department,
Speaker 2: your perspective on the consular part of this. There has
Speaker 2: been a lot of criticism that the US did not
Speaker 2: properly warn Americans in the region, its allies in the region,
Speaker 2: and did not have a plan even if you needed
Speaker 2: to keep that as a close hold, not to telegraph
Speaker 2: the attacks. There didn't seem to be a fast rollout
Speaker 2: plan to evacuate Americans out of the region. You know,
Speaker 2: we had that one authorized departure for Tel Aviv, but
Speaker 2: I didn't see them for other places and other places
Speaker 2: around the region. Kutar Uae Bahrain have all been hit
Speaker 2: really hard. We've got Americans who are trying to get out.
Speaker 2: The State Department now has organized charters. But what is
Speaker 2: your response to that initial response from the State's Apartment
Speaker 2: and whether they should have done more or better to
Speaker 2: get folks out faster.
Speaker 9: Listener, you know, I can't to sit around and second, guest,
Speaker 9: I was a Deputy Secretary of State and I was
Speaker 9: ambassador Israel. I don't think that there's people at the
Speaker 9: State Department that are reluctantly trying to communicate with people.
Speaker 9: I think it's complicated. You're in a military operation. Happens,
Speaker 9: it happens quickly, as you know, the rules are very
Speaker 9: quickly quick. If once the State Department UH says to
Speaker 9: the embassy staff that they should depart, they then have
Speaker 9: to make sure that any American who wants to leave,
Speaker 9: so it can't be adopt.
Speaker 5: That notice has to be public for that reason.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 6: There, I think they'll be. They'll be.
Speaker 9: Yeah, they'll be. The people will step back. I think
Speaker 9: there again. I'm not here to be, you know, being
Speaker 9: trying to be overly critical because it's really really complicated.
Speaker 9: The men and women who work at the Stage Department,
Speaker 9: the career. People want to do the right thing. They
Speaker 9: tried to getting charters in. It is not simple to do,
Speaker 9: especially when the airspace is complicated. So I just I
Speaker 9: think everyone needs to again. I believe me, I have
Speaker 9: been stuck there when the rockets. It's really scary. I mean,
Speaker 9: the Emirates and the Saudi's and the Kuwaitis and the
Speaker 9: Katari's are seeing something that they've probably in most of
Speaker 9: these people's lives, have never witnessed. Listen sadly, you know,
Speaker 9: I've I've been talking to my friends every day who
Speaker 9: are sitting in bunkers four or five, eight, ten times
Speaker 9: a day in Israel. I don't think it's because they're
Speaker 9: used to it.
Speaker 6: They like it.
Speaker 9: So I think the region is getting a little bit
Speaker 9: of feeling sadly what Israel has been through for a
Speaker 9: long long time and they don't like it. And obviously
Speaker 9: I hopefully they're getting those Americans are there and getting
Speaker 9: out because it is scary sitting in the house. I
Speaker 9: don't think people understand how frightening it is, and especially
Speaker 9: in places not Israel, but they don't have bomb shelters
Speaker 9: where drones are flying over your head. Really, I haven't
Speaker 9: been there. It's not pleasant and you do not get
Speaker 9: used to it.
Speaker 3: I want to draw more on your experience in the
Speaker 3: State Department, so beyond you just being the ambassador to Israel,
Speaker 3: but the role that you've played there is you look
Speaker 3: at the level of diplomatic engagement with other countries, is
Speaker 3: all of this unfold. So it does seem like this
Speaker 3: is very much a mission of the US and Israel
Speaker 3: at this point in time. And we saw yesterday kind
Speaker 3: of back and forth between Curios Starmer, the UK Prime Minister,
Speaker 3: and President Trump. President Trump suggesting that the UK should
Speaker 3: join wars after we've already won them. We saw kind
Speaker 3: of muted statements from European officials here, what should yes, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 3: What should be happening on the diplomatic track at this
Speaker 3: point in time as the military conflict continues. What do
Speaker 3: you think the US should be doing Israel should be
Speaker 3: doing to sort of get more allies onto its side
Speaker 3: as this war continues.
Speaker 9: As you guys, as I said at the beginning, you know,
Speaker 9: foreign policy is quite messy. It's just not it's not
Speaker 9: you know, it does not follow a straight line because
Speaker 9: things happen and unintentioned. A couple of things that are
Speaker 9: interesting to step back and look at this. First of all,
Speaker 9: I think the Iranians decision to attack Sairabi and the
Speaker 9: Amates quaint clatter was a massive mistake because you know,
Speaker 9: as they say, your enemy of your enemy is your friend,
Speaker 9: and they certainly have galvanized the rust of the Middle
Speaker 9: East as it relates to how bad actors the Iranians are.
Speaker 6: That's number one.
Speaker 9: Number two, the President's going to eat allies, and not
Speaker 9: only just the Middle East is going to need European
Speaker 9: allies because if this drags out, you know, obviously there's
Speaker 9: gonna be all sorts of needs for both airspace and
Speaker 9: supplies and important to that. And I like to remind people,
Speaker 9: you know, the European countries are fighting a war against Putin.
Speaker 6: And what's going on in Ukraine.
Speaker 9: I mean we've we've sort of you know, you guys
Speaker 9: aren't talking about what's going on in Ukraine.
Speaker 6: This is Ukraine.
Speaker 9: Thing is just you know, sadly, you just went to
Speaker 9: the fourth year, so you have a lot of things
Speaker 9: going on right now, and you know you need you know,
Speaker 9: and I was, you know, working at the stage department.
Speaker 9: You need friends, You need friends and good times and
Speaker 9: you certainly need friends and bad times, and so we're
Speaker 9: to see ourselves. I'm sure that the Secretary of Rubio
Speaker 9: and the Trump guys are reaching out to these allies
Speaker 9: all the time and trying to get their help. But
Speaker 9: your point is one hundred percent correct. You need allies
Speaker 9: in times of peace, and you definitely need allies in.
Speaker 6: Times of war.
Speaker 3: Tom Knights, who was the US Ambassador to Israel, joining
Speaker 3: us on the Sunday.
Speaker 2: Morning stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend.
Speaker 5: Right after this, I'm.
Speaker 3: Going to turn out of the Junior Centaer from the
Speaker 3: state of South Dakota, that is Mike Browns, who sits
Speaker 3: on the Senate Armed Services and the Scent Intelligence committees,
Speaker 3: and let me just start with Iran if I could
Speaker 3: on this Sunday morning.
Speaker 6: Senator, thank you very much for being here.
Speaker 3: We have heard so many different rationales for the US
Speaker 3: pursuing this war with Iran, and I'm curious if a
Speaker 3: constituent were to approach you and ask why we're doing this,
Speaker 3: what would your response be?
Speaker 6: Nine days into this war.
Speaker 10: Thanks for the opportunity, and we've actually had constituents. I'm
Speaker 10: right back in Pierce, South Dakota this morning and yesterday
Speaker 10: had coffee one of the coffee clatches that we try
Speaker 10: to stop in and say hello at one of our
Speaker 10: constituents as asking exactly that what's going on and was
Speaker 10: this the right time to make this move? And my
Speaker 10: message was that there's ever a right time. But in
Speaker 10: some cases, as you start to gather your intelligence and
Speaker 10: you see what your adversaries are doing, they have a
Speaker 10: say in it as well. In this particular case, we
Speaker 10: knew that while the nuclear facilities had been really significantly disrupted,
Speaker 10: that Iran was still looking at other things, including going
Speaker 10: back in and getting the nuclear supplies. The uranium that
Speaker 10: has already been developed that doesn't go away, it's simply buried.
Speaker 10: The second piece on it, and probably the more important
Speaker 10: pieces right now, is that they had continued to increase
Speaker 10: their supplies of short term and intermediate ballistic missiles and
Speaker 10: a huge number of drones and they were building them
Speaker 10: very rapidly. And the question was is as long as
Speaker 10: their air defenses had already been taken down significantly during
Speaker 10: the twelve day war, was this the appropriate time to
Speaker 10: actually go back in and take out those other items.
Speaker 10: But there's one more piece in the middle of it,
Speaker 10: there had been the play diplomatic talks going on, but
Speaker 10: in the background, we know what their purposes are. I mean,
Speaker 10: we've got very good intel and we know that even
Speaker 10: though they were publicly talking about diplomacy, behind the scenes,
Speaker 10: this was simply to delay and they had no intentions,
Speaker 10: no intentions of making a deal with regard to their
Speaker 10: nuclear activities in the future. They were not going to
Speaker 10: give up the opportunity to make a bomb. So number one,
Speaker 10: at what point is there a good time to have
Speaker 10: a conflict. There's never a good time, but there are
Speaker 10: better times than others. And the longer we waited, the
Speaker 10: more of their offensive capabilities that would inflict lots of
Speaker 10: damage on our bases in the Middle East and on
Speaker 10: our allies, while at the same time we weren't building
Speaker 10: our defensive capabilities as fast as they were building their
Speaker 10: defensive capabilities. It takes time for us to take some
Speaker 10: of our more complicated missile systems and.
Speaker 9: To develop them.
Speaker 6: You have a good sense optunity was there, but we
Speaker 6: need to do something.
Speaker 3: Do you have a good sense from the administration about
Speaker 3: what they're thinking when it comes to timeline, Because just
Speaker 3: as there's been varying rationales for this. There's also been
Speaker 3: kind of mixed messages about how long this administration is
Speaker 3: preparing to be engaged in this war.
Speaker 10: I don't think any of us are expecting an extended
Speaker 10: long term engagement. But remember we're now just what eight
Speaker 10: days into this conflict, and so far our plans appear
Speaker 10: to be going as scheduled with regard to taking out
Speaker 10: their defensive capabilities, and now we're working on the offensive
Speaker 10: capabilities using some of our additional equipment that are less
Speaker 10: or that are perhaps not as a capable. In other words,
Speaker 10: we can use F twenty twos, we can use F
Speaker 10: thirty five's, and in doing so, it's really tough for
Speaker 10: them to find us and to shoot us down with
Speaker 10: those types of equipment and with our missile systems that
Speaker 10: we can use to basically go in and take out
Speaker 10: their sensitive their communications and their defensive capability. When that happens,
Speaker 10: now we can take some of our other heavier equipment,
Speaker 10: our b ones, our B fifty twos, and so forth,
Speaker 10: and they can come in and really do strategic strikes
Speaker 10: throughout the country to take out more of their capabilities,
Speaker 10: which includes their ability to actually make the drones and
Speaker 10: so forth.
Speaker 2: So I want to ask you about what you're just
Speaker 2: talking about, those these coffee meetings talking to your constituents.
Speaker 2: And the President was asked on Air Force one and
Speaker 2: that same gaggle we keep playing if he was concerned
Speaker 2: about gas prices, and he said he wasn't. So I'm
Speaker 2: wondering when you talk to your constituents, when you talk
Speaker 2: to Americans who are really feeling economic pressure, are they
Speaker 2: worried about it?
Speaker 5: And are you worried about it for them?
Speaker 10: Well, I think when this started we knew that there
Speaker 10: would be a spike because it does impact an area
Speaker 10: of the world where twenty percent of the fuel or
Speaker 10: the oil that's developed is moving through the straight hor
Speaker 10: moves every day, and so you've got to be concerned
Speaker 10: about it. But did we know that the prices would
Speaker 10: go up?
Speaker 4: Yes?
Speaker 10: The question is was there ever going to be a
Speaker 10: better time in which to take on this operation and
Speaker 10: was there any chance that we would ever be in
Speaker 10: a position to where it wouldn't have to be taken
Speaker 10: care of?
Speaker 9: Him?
Speaker 5: So you support the president taking this.
Speaker 10: Action, that's time to do it.
Speaker 2: Sorry I spoke over you. So you support the President
Speaker 2: taking this action?
Speaker 5: At this time.
Speaker 10: Oh, definitely, no question. Look, the President had to make
Speaker 10: a tough decision. This is the right call at the
Speaker 10: right time. We know that prices are going to go
Speaker 10: up for a period of time. But once we've secured
Speaker 10: the straight up har moves again, and once that oil
Speaker 10: starts to move through once again, then prices will begin
Speaker 10: to stabilize. And at some point in the future, as
Speaker 10: there is clear evidence that we've taken out their ability
Speaker 10: to attack that shipping, then the price will start to
Speaker 10: not only stabilize, but it will start to come back down.
Speaker 10: We're eight days into this. We knew this was going
Speaker 10: to be tough, but we also know that it's the
Speaker 10: right thing to do right time. The Iranian regime that's
Speaker 10: in power today has no intentions of giving up their
Speaker 10: offensive capabilities, and they clearly were working at becoming more
Speaker 10: of a threat to their neighbors in the Middle East
Speaker 10: and clearly a threat to US interests.
Speaker 3: Senator, let me ask you about your appetite for potentially
Speaker 3: a long war, potentially an expensive war. So we have
Speaker 3: not heard the President say definitively there will be no
Speaker 3: boots on the ground ever in Iran.
Speaker 6: I'm curious a reaction to that.
Speaker 3: And then also, you're back in South Dakota today, But
Speaker 3: what do you expect the conversation is going to be
Speaker 3: like among your colleagues on the Senate Armed Services Committee
Speaker 3: about the prospects of an emergency defense spending package as
Speaker 3: a result of this.
Speaker 10: Yeah, First of all, the President is correct when he
Speaker 10: does not commit to never doing something. In others, you
Speaker 10: never take away options. That then gives your adversaries the
Speaker 10: opportunity to take advantage of that. So you never take
Speaker 10: away an option. And the President is correct and that
Speaker 10: with regard to that. It doesn't mean he's going to
Speaker 10: send troops in, but he never takes away the option.
Speaker 11: That's important.
Speaker 10: Second piece on this, Yeah, look, we know that these
Speaker 10: are expensive. The question is is if we can get
Speaker 10: in now and get this done in a fairly short
Speaker 10: period of time, it would be less expensive now than
Speaker 10: if we would have delayed it and allowed the Iranians
Speaker 10: to continue to develop their offensive capabilities in that region.
Speaker 10: So right time never a right time, but this is
Speaker 10: a better time than if we would have waited another month,
Speaker 10: two months, three months, and then had to have gone
Speaker 10: in and found even more offensive capabilities that we would
Speaker 10: have had to have addressed.
Speaker 2: But with the President refusing to rule out the possibility
Speaker 2: of troops on the ground, and you know, going to
Speaker 2: Dover this weekend to greet those US casualties already casualties
Speaker 2: coming back from the war. When you look at the
Speaker 2: America First Agenda, you have to be getting at least
Speaker 2: some inkling of concern from constituents, from supporters of the
Speaker 2: president how this is helping them and their families if
Speaker 2: we're looking at US casualties and higher prices in the US.
Speaker 10: Yeah, look, number one, Like I say, nobody ever wants
Speaker 10: to go into a war, but sometimes the responsibility of
Speaker 10: the president is to defend the United States and that
Speaker 10: requires judgment about what the right time it is to
Speaker 10: bring troops in. We never want to see our young
Speaker 10: men and women get into a fair fight. We always
Speaker 10: want them to have the advantage.
Speaker 2: But is this worth it? What is the President trying
Speaker 2: to do here? And is it worth American lives?
Speaker 10: It's not a matter of being worth it. It's a
Speaker 10: matter of at what point do you take out a
Speaker 10: major threat to the United States and to the stability
Speaker 10: throughout the Middle East, And right now is the right
Speaker 10: time to take on the Iranians and to take out
Speaker 10: their capabilities before they develop them even more. And so look,
Speaker 10: I was governor here in South Dakota for eight years
Speaker 10: during the time in which we were sending young men
Speaker 10: and women off to war. I went to thirty one funerals.
Speaker 10: There is no leader out there that wants to go
Speaker 10: to funerals. But there is an obligation to recognize the
Speaker 10: threat of the loss of life for these young men
Speaker 10: and women. And there is no such thing as as
Speaker 10: a young man or a woman that dies in battle
Speaker 10: where you don't affect young families. By definition, they're young,
Speaker 10: they're warriors. This is not taken on lightly. It's a
Speaker 10: matter of judgment and whether or not this is the
Speaker 10: right time long term to protect us interests. I think
Speaker 10: the President made the right decision, knowing full well that
Speaker 10: it was a very serious decision and the threat of
Speaker 10: the loss of life for young men and women was there.
Speaker 6: Senator.
Speaker 10: That's the reason why you have a president that looks
Speaker 10: at the big picture and at what the right thing
Speaker 10: is to do for our country long term.
Speaker 3: Senator, there you've talked a lot about our efficacy and
Speaker 3: striking sites within Iran military sites in Iran. There is
Speaker 3: some concern and controversy surrounding a bombing of an elementary school,
Speaker 3: a girls' elementary school in An in the first date
Speaker 3: of the war. Let's take a listen to what the
Speaker 3: President had to say to a reporter on the plane
Speaker 3: yesterday at about.
Speaker 7: That based on what I've seen, that was done by Iran?
Speaker 2: Is that true, mister nixspt it was Iran who did not.
Speaker 6: We're certainly investigating.
Speaker 3: The only side that targets civilians is Iran, and that
Speaker 3: assessment that this was done by Iron runs counter to
Speaker 3: what news organizations include the New York Times have put
Speaker 3: together looking at all of the visual evidence. I'm curious
Speaker 3: sort of how you see this proceeding from your vantage
Speaker 3: on the Armed Services Committee, you anticipate hearings. Are you
Speaker 3: confident in that investigation that's going to take place by
Speaker 3: the Pentagon here in the minute we have left.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 10: Number one, nobody in the United States targets civilians. We
Speaker 10: just simply we don't do that, and particularly children. Iran does.
Speaker 10: Terrorist organization don't know for sure what happened right now,
Speaker 10: excuse me. What we do know is that we do
Speaker 10: a better job of actually laying out what actually does
Speaker 10: happen once we complete an investigation. We don't know whether
Speaker 10: that was sitting right next to a very sensitive military site,
Speaker 10: whether or not the Iranians built something right next to
Speaker 10: a school with the intent of trying to protect that
Speaker 10: military site. So let us do the investigation, let us
Speaker 10: lay this thing out. The one thing that you do
Speaker 10: know is that in the United States we will do
Speaker 10: a good job of looking at it. But most importantly,
Speaker 10: we do our best with our strategic weapons systems, with
Speaker 10: our very capable smart weapon systems, to avoid doing damage.
Speaker 10: But when you have this type of a conflict, unfortunately
Speaker 10: there are times in which civilians are hit. We don't
Speaker 10: like it, we don't want it.
Speaker 5: Thank you so much.
Speaker 10: Sometimes it happens very unfortunately, SATA.
Speaker 3: Thank you very much that Senator Mike Brown's joined us
Speaker 3: from South Dakota on this Sunday morning.
Speaker 6: Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend.
Speaker 2: Right after this, Welcome back to Bloomberg this weekend. I'm
Speaker 2: Christina Rafini here with David Gera. It is International Women's Day,
Speaker 2: and as we were talking around the newsroom about who
Speaker 2: some of the toughest, coolest women.
Speaker 5: Were out there.
Speaker 2: These two guests are who we thought of. They not
Speaker 2: only shared a podium, they are both mothers of young children,
Speaker 2: something that in previous decades would have ruled them out.
Speaker 5: Of metal contention.
Speaker 3: We're talking, of course, of Kaylee Humphries and a lot
Speaker 3: of Myers Taylor's of the US women's bob sled teams.
Speaker 2: Take a listen, Alan, I want to start with you
Speaker 2: first of all, who do you have there?
Speaker 5: I want to thank you for being.
Speaker 2: With us and just talk about this is not your
Speaker 2: first Olympics, but why it meant so much to be
Speaker 2: on top of that podium again and to have your
Speaker 2: family with you.
Speaker 12: I have my son here, Noah, and he is very excited,
Speaker 12: so he's trying to press all my computer keys and everything.
Speaker 5: But the real.
Speaker 12: Reason they was so exciting is because they're my motivation,
Speaker 12: my kids, both of them. My older son Noah, my
Speaker 12: older son Nico who's six, and my younger son, Noah,
Speaker 12: who's three. They're my motivation for continuing in the sport.
Speaker 12: They're both deaf, and I just wanted to show them
Speaker 12: that regardless of what the world tells you, you can
Speaker 12: go after your dreams and you could pursue them, unfortunately
Speaker 12: for me, and it add a gold medal.
Speaker 2: That's so amazing because for so long, first of all,
Speaker 2: it was women can have it all, and then it
Speaker 2: was maybe women can't have it all, and then but
Speaker 2: there's this idea that maybe women can have both. And
Speaker 2: can you talk a little bit about, Kaylee, what the
Speaker 2: difference is between that, Like, maybe we can't have everything,
Speaker 2: but you can be a mom and be a bad
Speaker 2: US Olympian at the same time.
Speaker 11: I think for a lot of years, especially growing up
Speaker 11: in a very male dominated sport, you know, you always
Speaker 11: get told as soon as you hit forty it's done.
Speaker 11: As soon as you become a mom, your body's never
Speaker 11: going to be the same, and there's all these misconceptions
Speaker 11: and a lot of my career had a lot of people,
Speaker 11: you know, say that I couldn't do things place to
Speaker 11: target on my back, it was never going to happen.
Speaker 11: And so believing in yourself, believe in what's possible, and
Speaker 11: dreaming big is a huge part that I think Alana
Speaker 11: and myself have always done. And so to be able
Speaker 11: to stand on that podium, you know, for me to
Speaker 11: be able to earn two medals at this Olympics to
Speaker 11: know that I did it, you know, a year and
Speaker 11: a half postpartum, and there was a lot of doubt,
Speaker 11: even in my own mind, but I wanted to go
Speaker 11: out there put my best foot forward. I had a
Speaker 11: great team surrounding me, believing in me and what was possible.
Speaker 11: And you know, Alana and I were able to get
Speaker 11: it done and be able to show everybody that because
Speaker 11: your mom, because of you know, whatever limitations people want
Speaker 11: to place upon you, you know, if you dream, bag
Speaker 11: and work hard, you can make anything happen.
Speaker 2: Alana, I want to ask you and correct me if
Speaker 2: I'm wrong, but I think this is correct. You have
Speaker 2: the most medals for a black athlete in the Winter
Speaker 2: Olympics in history.
Speaker 5: Correct, Yes, that's correct. I mean if I could, we
Speaker 5: just might drop at that and leave it there.
Speaker 2: I would literally tell that to everyone I met from
Speaker 2: like the.
Speaker 5: Grocery store of the post office. But one of the
Speaker 5: other moments that I thought was.
Speaker 2: So amazing is you know, you guys are both in
Speaker 2: forties too, so not only are you moms, but you
Speaker 2: are on the older end of spectrum for people who
Speaker 2: are doing the Olympics.
Speaker 5: And that was a big story.
Speaker 2: This year too, was older athletes coming back and proving
Speaker 2: they've still got it. What was it like to know,
Speaker 2: as a mom of two kids, as a woman in
Speaker 2: her forties, that you were standing there on top of
Speaker 2: that podium with yet another gold medal around your neck.
Speaker 12: I mean, that's the thing.
Speaker 6: It took me two kids and almost twenty years to
Speaker 6: finally win a gold medal.
Speaker 12: You know, I've been fortunate to win medals before, so
Speaker 12: to finally win a gold at this age, and having
Speaker 12: two kids, when it's improbable, when it's against all odds,
Speaker 12: it was really cool. And it just goes to show you,
Speaker 12: like I am a big proponent of the village I've
Speaker 12: had around me, and I've had a lot of great people,
Speaker 12: whether it's nannies, whether it's my husband. My kids for
Speaker 12: the most part, are behind our dreams.
Speaker 2: Listen, we're talking about the realities.
Speaker 5: I think this is perfect.
Speaker 6: You know, it's just been a journey from starting to finish.
Speaker 12: But I think it's really cool that show that if
Speaker 12: you're given the right support system, if you have the
Speaker 12: right supports, there's no limit to what women can accomplish,
Speaker 12: regardless of the age, regardless of how many children they have,
Speaker 12: but I just want to emphasize it does take a village,
Speaker 12: and it does require a lot of support. I think
Speaker 12: we need to just do more as a society to
Speaker 12: make sure women are supported at all stages.
Speaker 3: About Hey, let me ask you lastly just about like
Speaker 3: one part of that village, and that is you guys
Speaker 3: as teammates, and like what kind of conversation exists about
Speaker 3: what you all are going through these big moments in
Speaker 3: each other's lives and how you're thinking about that particular
Speaker 3: part of the village that the team itself figuring all
Speaker 3: of this out.
Speaker 11: Yeah, a lot of them. And I have been fortunate
Speaker 11: we've shared five Olympic podiums together, so you know, most
Speaker 11: of our career has been on the Olympic podium together.
Speaker 11: Just like any athlete's journey, you have an individual path,
Speaker 11: and I think motherhood is no different. You know, my
Speaker 11: path is different than alone his path. And you know
Speaker 11: we're similar yet very different and in a lot of aspects.
Speaker 11: But I think for me specifically, and I hope a
Speaker 11: lot it can say the same. You know, we've really
Speaker 11: pushed each other. I think when it comes to motherhood.
Speaker 11: You know, she's a little farther ahead than I am.
Speaker 11: Her kids are a little older, but there were there
Speaker 11: were questions. You know, what happens if you kid ask
Speaker 11: with a hospital, what happens when you're on tour, and
Speaker 11: this happens. And so I've been able to and she's
Speaker 11: been gracious enough to kind of fill me in on
Speaker 11: what happens, having been in that side before. And then there's,
Speaker 11: you know, the sports side of things, and I get
Speaker 11: to be the athlete I am because she motivates and
Speaker 11: pushes me to be the best, because she's working super
Speaker 11: hard to beat me and vice versa. There are times,
Speaker 11: you know, when I went a race by one hundredth
Speaker 11: of a second and she's won a race by one
Speaker 11: hundredth of a second, and so we push each other
Speaker 11: to be the best. I know she's out there working
Speaker 11: every day, and I think that's what makes us so
Speaker 11: successful on Team USA as a whole, that we can
Speaker 11: be on the podium for five Olympics in a row
Speaker 11: together because you know, we've got great support as a
Speaker 11: whole within the USA Bob Sled and Team USA, but
Speaker 11: we really push each other to be the best version
Speaker 11: I know she's out there working hard. I'm out there
Speaker 11: working hard. Neither of us can relax really when it
Speaker 11: comes to the competition piece. But at the end of
Speaker 11: the day, we know that we're supported with our team
Speaker 11: and our team of teams, and that's really what elevates
Speaker 11: us as a nation compared to the rest of the world.
Speaker 2: It takes a village, sometimes it's an Olympic village, so
Speaker 2: that the people we have around you.
Speaker 5: Thank you both honor to talk to you.
Speaker 6: Yeah, thank you very much.
Speaker 5: No, I don't know if you can see me.
Speaker 6: Thank you.
Speaker 5: We appreciate you being with us.
Speaker 6: Bye, guys, bye bye.
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us on today's Bloomberg This Weekend podcast.
Speaker 2: Don't forget to tune in live for the show every
Speaker 2: Saturday and Sunday morning, starting at seven am Eastern.
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