WEBVTT - Iran Picks New Supreme Leader, War Enters Ninth Day 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:10.160 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Welcome to the Bloomberg 0:00:10.240 --> 0:00:15.920 This Weekend podcast with David Gura, Christina Raffini, and Lisa Matteo. 0:00:17.680 --> 0:00:20.560 Thanks for joining us for today's selection of conversations from 0:00:20.600 --> 0:00:20.959 the show. 0:00:21.200 --> 0:00:23.479 You can listen to our favorite discussions right here on 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:25.800 the podcast, but also make sure to join us live 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:28.960 every Saturday and Sunday morning starting at seven am Easter. 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:32.760 We're on Bloomberg Television, Radio and the Bloomberg Business App, 0:00:33.040 --> 0:00:37.600 bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics, 0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:39.120 lifestyle and culture. 0:00:41.479 --> 0:00:43.280 We are going to talk about energy. 0:00:43.600 --> 0:00:46.640 Oil prices above ninety dollars a barrel that's up about 0:00:46.680 --> 0:00:47.960 thirty six percent in a week. 0:00:48.320 --> 0:00:49.920 Gas prices three dollars. 0:00:49.720 --> 0:00:51.880 Forty five cents a gallon that is up about forty 0:00:51.920 --> 0:00:52.840 five cents in a week. 0:00:52.920 --> 0:00:55.000 Daniel, You're been writing in The Financial Times on Friday 0:00:55.000 --> 0:00:56.880 of this week in an opinion piece titled is the 0:00:56.960 --> 0:00:58.280 Nightmare Scenario. 0:00:57.880 --> 0:00:59.920 For Global Energy? Here I'll read a little bit from it. 0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:02.360 Current oil prices in the nineties are far from the 0:01:02.400 --> 0:01:05.200 worst case scenario, but right now the world is looking 0:01:05.240 --> 0:01:08.080 at the biggest disruption in oil production in history, as 0:01:08.080 --> 0:01:10.640 well as a resounding shock to global gas markets. The 0:01:10.720 --> 0:01:14.080 key question for global energy, he writes, is the duration 0:01:14.200 --> 0:01:16.720 of this explosive war. Dan jorg And the Pultzer Price 0:01:16.720 --> 0:01:18.839 winning author of the prize the Epicquest for Oil, Money 0:01:18.840 --> 0:01:21.200 and Power, author of the New Map Energy, Climate, and 0:01:21.200 --> 0:01:23.160 the Clash of Nations, joins us now here on set, 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:25.320 New York. He's the vice chairman of S and P Global. Dan, 0:01:25.360 --> 0:01:26.560 great to have you thank with us. 0:01:26.680 --> 0:01:28.160 Thank you so much. Although we did say in the 0:01:28.160 --> 0:01:30.160 break you are dressed a little better than us here 0:01:30.160 --> 0:01:30.600 on the weekend. 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:32.600 It's a lovely time overdressed well. Correct that. 0:01:32.640 --> 0:01:35.520 Next time, I want to start with just a broad 0:01:35.600 --> 0:01:37.399 question about the gravity of this moment. You get to 0:01:37.400 --> 0:01:40.160 it in that piece in the ft. How do you 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:42.039 look at this in the broad sweep of history, the 0:01:42.040 --> 0:01:43.959 moment that we're in right now, and the potential for 0:01:44.000 --> 0:01:45.680 this being a conflict that doesn't last a matter of 0:01:45.760 --> 0:01:47.800 days or weeks, as the President initially said, but bu 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:49.040 indeed drags on longer than that. 0:01:49.600 --> 0:01:51.960 It is at least it points to the possibility of 0:01:51.960 --> 0:01:54.800 the nightmare scenario that has really been there for half 0:01:54.800 --> 0:01:58.440 a century, ever since Iran erupted in revolution and set 0:01:58.440 --> 0:02:01.720 off an oil shock at the end of the nineteen seventies. So, 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:04.520 but this is at the scale that we're seeing now, 0:02:04.800 --> 0:02:06.600 there's nothing comparable to it. 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:09.720 And what does that mean when you say the nightmare scenario, Well, 0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:11.200 at least that out for us, And what should we 0:02:11.280 --> 0:02:12.560 be expecting or fear. 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:15.440 I guess a nightmare scenario would be a war that 0:02:15.480 --> 0:02:17.840 goes on long time, a disruption that goes out on 0:02:17.880 --> 0:02:20.960 a long time. Prices really skyrocketing in ninety is high, 0:02:21.000 --> 0:02:25.440 but it's not skyrocketing with major impacts on financial markets, 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:30.200 and ultimately the world economy plummeting into a recession that 0:02:30.280 --> 0:02:33.560 is more or less this nightmare scenario. That's not where 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:36.320 that's not where we are, and this would have to 0:02:36.400 --> 0:02:39.800 go on longer and also have to see considerable damage 0:02:39.800 --> 0:02:41.200 of the infrastructure in the. 0:02:41.200 --> 0:02:44.240 Region, which concerns you more when it comes to possible 0:02:44.400 --> 0:02:47.320 runian outcomes, a more conservative regime that is less likely 0:02:47.720 --> 0:02:52.280 to collaborate or cooperate with other world's economic indicators, or 0:02:52.800 --> 0:02:55.280 a total power vacuum. And can you talk about what 0:02:55.320 --> 0:02:58.320 the difference would be to the oil global oil markets 0:02:58.320 --> 0:02:58.720 and production. 0:02:59.040 --> 0:03:02.560 Well, it's you know, it's hard to imagine a totally 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:06.959 chaotic Iran. Nobody's in control, and there are ethnic divisions 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:11.120 in the country that would tie it apart. But I 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:13.600 think there is a question of imagining what kind of 0:03:14.360 --> 0:03:17.519 organization would rule the country other than what it has today, 0:03:17.880 --> 0:03:20.200 and would it give up would it give up its 0:03:20.280 --> 0:03:23.760 revolutionary zeal, its antagonism to the West, its effort to 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:26.840 dominate its region, and go back to being what might 0:03:26.880 --> 0:03:30.640 be called a normal country and a country that's focused 0:03:30.639 --> 0:03:33.760 on economic growth and development and doesn't running short of 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:35.080 water as it is right now. 0:03:35.760 --> 0:03:39.120 When you look at the news overnight that the UAE's 0:03:39.160 --> 0:03:41.680 cutting back production, Kuwait's cutting back production. We see the 0:03:41.760 --> 0:03:44.320 changes that Saudi Arabia's making, shifting more of its oil 0:03:44.560 --> 0:03:47.160 through pipelines and not through the straight uformies. What does 0:03:47.200 --> 0:03:49.240 that tell you the way that these countries are reacting 0:03:49.240 --> 0:03:51.680 to this, about the trajectory of it going forward. 0:03:51.920 --> 0:03:52.280 In a way. 0:03:52.480 --> 0:03:56.520 If you may not remember during COVID, when all the 0:03:56.600 --> 0:04:00.840 storage was filled up because the market demand plummeted, people 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:02.320 didn't know what to do with oil, and in. 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:05.840 Fact it's stotting on the negative, right, Yeah, oil. 0:04:05.640 --> 0:04:06.560 Prices went negative. 0:04:06.960 --> 0:04:10.280 That's kind of not a full analogy, but that's where 0:04:10.280 --> 0:04:11.000 they are right now. 0:04:11.120 --> 0:04:12.000 They can't put this. 0:04:12.280 --> 0:04:15.680 You have a very complicated, integrated system that goes from 0:04:15.720 --> 0:04:19.200 pumping oil, processing it, getting into tankers, shipping it to markets, 0:04:19.520 --> 0:04:23.000 and that system isn't working now. It's bottled up and 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:25.039 so that there's no place to put the oil and 0:04:25.080 --> 0:04:27.280 you run out of Basically, the countries are running out 0:04:27.279 --> 0:04:29.320 of storage and the only thing to do then is 0:04:29.400 --> 0:04:30.239 cut back production. 0:04:30.480 --> 0:04:32.680 I also want to ask you about that bottled up 0:04:32.680 --> 0:04:34.720 and the bottleneck in the Strait of hor Moves. 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:36.520 We've got some sound from the President. We want to 0:04:36.520 --> 0:04:36.839 play you. 0:04:38.560 --> 0:04:40.799 What about the strain of Horror Moves. There's no traffic 0:04:40.839 --> 0:04:41.800 really going through a round. 0:04:41.880 --> 0:04:45.680 That's you know, the ship's choices. But we haven't cleaned out. 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:49.400 We've wiped out their navy. The navy is now at 0:04:49.440 --> 0:04:53.240 the bottom of the sea. So that's the choice. This 0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:55.880 is an excurageon we figured to oil prices. We go up, 0:04:55.920 --> 0:04:59.120 which say, will they'll also come down? They'll come down 0:04:59.240 --> 0:05:02.760 very fast. What I've gotten rid of a major cancer 0:05:03.560 --> 0:05:04.679 by the faces of the earth. 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:08.480 The President has been trying to encourage the shipping to continue, 0:05:08.480 --> 0:05:11.039 saying the US will help ensure. The US could even 0:05:11.160 --> 0:05:14.279 escort some armadas of ships as they go through. Is 0:05:14.320 --> 0:05:16.159 that realistic? And if you were a producer, would you 0:05:16.160 --> 0:05:17.240 take that risk with your assets? 0:05:17.240 --> 0:05:20.120 I think it is a very big risk. 0:05:20.240 --> 0:05:23.320 Obviously, people still have insurance, but it's now war rates, 0:05:23.400 --> 0:05:25.800 so it's gone way up. And of course the administration 0:05:25.920 --> 0:05:28.599 is said that they will ensure ships if they can't 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:32.800 get commercial insurance. But the risk is that a lot 0:05:32.839 --> 0:05:37.800 of the Iranian navy has been destroyed, but there's still drones, 0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:42.360 and there's still explosive speedboats that could fast boats. Yeah, 0:05:42.400 --> 0:05:47.400 that would put a tanker at risk, and so you 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:49.560 have to be very bold and at least as I 0:05:49.680 --> 0:05:54.159 understand that the escorts, they're not ready to do that 0:05:54.240 --> 0:05:56.560 yet because the naval ships are focused on the war 0:05:56.960 --> 0:06:00.279 and protecting US battleships. I mean, we did have in 0:06:00.320 --> 0:06:05.480 nineteen eighty seven, the US provided escorts to Kuwaiti tankers, 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:08.240 but there weren't any drones. 0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:10.600 Then I look back on the last week and there 0:06:10.640 --> 0:06:12.400 was that moment when the Treasury Sectory went on a 0:06:12.520 --> 0:06:14.560 rival network. He was on CNBC and he floated the 0:06:14.600 --> 0:06:18.760 possibility of the administration doing more and investors. 0:06:18.360 --> 0:06:21.120 Responded positively to that. As vague as the comment was, 0:06:22.000 --> 0:06:24.960 I did he did he define more? Did he more? 0:06:25.120 --> 0:06:27.920 No, there is a generalized lack of definition, I think 0:06:27.920 --> 0:06:30.440 on many fronts here. But that gets to my question, 0:06:30.480 --> 0:06:33.320 which is Christina asks about there being kind of escorts, 0:06:33.400 --> 0:06:36.680 naval escorts, perhaps additional insurance that's backed up or provided 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:38.640 by the US government. When you look at kind of 0:06:38.680 --> 0:06:41.600 the panoply of policy options that could be presented by 0:06:41.640 --> 0:06:45.400 this administration, what would make the most difference to industry 0:06:45.400 --> 0:06:48.200 at this point in time, what was actually marching uncertainty? 0:06:48.200 --> 0:06:48.960 What would actually help? 0:06:49.000 --> 0:06:51.720 But what would be the end of the attacks? I 0:06:51.720 --> 0:06:54.120 mean that would be it. It's very simple. And we 0:06:54.200 --> 0:06:57.719 know that that the air war is aimed at the 0:06:57.760 --> 0:07:00.400 missile launchers, trying to knock them out one by one 0:07:00.480 --> 0:07:04.160 they open up and get them. They're in these missile 0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:07.680 cities that Iran has. So I think it's trying to 0:07:07.720 --> 0:07:11.840 get Iran to a position where it's simply is toothless. 0:07:11.600 --> 0:07:13.000 That's the objective. 0:07:13.400 --> 0:07:17.080 And the President has talked about unconditional surrendered, not sure 0:07:17.440 --> 0:07:18.360 what that means. 0:07:18.240 --> 0:07:19.920 Or less definition there as well. 0:07:21.000 --> 0:07:25.560 And remember the Iran it's a divided leadership and as 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:27.080 well as a decimated leadership. 0:07:27.400 --> 0:07:29.720 We're waiting this morning to see if they have chosen 0:07:29.760 --> 0:07:32.760 a new leader, but unclear. You know, it won't be 0:07:32.880 --> 0:07:34.840 the same power center that COMMANI had. 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:38.400 I mean, he had been at it for a long time. 0:07:39.280 --> 0:07:41.680 I'm curious how you see the price where you see 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:43.880 the price going from here? So it's been an incredibly 0:07:43.880 --> 0:07:46.000 fast move, as you point out in your pieces, we've 0:07:46.000 --> 0:07:48.560 seen over the course of the week, and you know, 0:07:48.600 --> 0:07:50.400 we're talking about the prospects of one hundred dollars barrel 0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:53.840 last weekend. Where do you see the price going from here? 0:07:53.880 --> 0:07:55.920 And I think there's a question a lot of people 0:07:55.920 --> 0:07:57.480 have on their minds, which is what is the lag 0:07:57.480 --> 0:08:00.720 between that happening we see even more manifested pump higher 0:08:00.720 --> 0:08:01.360 gas prices. 0:08:01.400 --> 0:08:03.560 Well, I think that you know, there are all sorts 0:08:03.600 --> 0:08:05.920 of predictions out there. You hear people saying, you know, 0:08:05.960 --> 0:08:08.440 it's over one hundred or one hundred and fifty. I mean, 0:08:08.480 --> 0:08:11.040 I think these are notional ideas that clearly all the 0:08:11.080 --> 0:08:13.440 pressures are for the price to go up. You have 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:16.400 lost twenty percent of world oil, you've lost twenty percent 0:08:16.440 --> 0:08:20.360 of energy, and as a result of that, markets you're 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:23.280 going to get people bidding for supplies. We see tankers 0:08:23.320 --> 0:08:26.040 that we're going to carry energy to Europe now being 0:08:26.320 --> 0:08:30.840 diverted to Asia. So you know, everything points to higher prices. 0:08:31.880 --> 0:08:34.960 Where the limit is really depends upon event. And why 0:08:35.000 --> 0:08:38.200 I say what's most important thing is duration. Does this 0:08:38.240 --> 0:08:40.520 go on a week? Does this go on a month? 0:08:40.559 --> 0:08:43.280 And that has different consequences. 0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:45.560 As you look at this conflict and the economic story 0:08:45.600 --> 0:08:47.400 part of this, as we talk about it, as we've 0:08:47.440 --> 0:08:50.280 all talked about it, what are people missing? What is 0:08:50.320 --> 0:08:53.080 the most important thing that you think people are overlooking 0:08:53.280 --> 0:08:55.720 in this conflict and how it's impacting the economies. 0:08:56.200 --> 0:08:58.960 Well, to me, one thing is that we do have resilience. 0:08:59.240 --> 0:09:01.040 We're not in the position we would have been a 0:09:01.080 --> 0:09:04.120 decade or two ago. Because the US is now the 0:09:04.120 --> 0:09:08.319 world's largest oil producer. That gives security that we didn't 0:09:08.360 --> 0:09:11.320 have before. You have production going up elsewhere. You have 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:14.600 candidate four million barrels a day. Brazil is four million 0:09:14.600 --> 0:09:17.280 barrels a day, which is four times by the way 0:09:17.400 --> 0:09:20.840 Venezuela is currently produced. Just so, there are alternatives and 0:09:20.840 --> 0:09:24.960 their strategic stocks which were created in the nineteen seventies 0:09:25.120 --> 0:09:28.480 in response to the threat of the disruption of supply 0:09:29.200 --> 0:09:31.920 coming from the Gulf. So you have all of those 0:09:31.920 --> 0:09:34.920 factors at work. You also have the Saudi have an 0:09:35.040 --> 0:09:37.840 East West network that can move oil to the Red Sea, 0:09:38.280 --> 0:09:40.800 So it isn't those are things that need to be 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:45.120 kept in mind even as we look at an unprecedented situation. 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:47.560 You bring upose strategic reservis there's one in the US. 0:09:47.600 --> 0:09:49.440 Of course, the President has talked a couple of times 0:09:49.480 --> 0:09:52.920 about the prospects of drawing that down. What is the 0:09:52.960 --> 0:09:55.000 calculus the president must use in a moment like this 0:09:55.320 --> 0:09:57.440 to decide. That's of course used by President Biden as 0:09:57.440 --> 0:10:01.520 the war began in Ukraine. What should the present be 0:10:01.559 --> 0:10:03.120 thinking about when it comes to whether or not to 0:10:03.120 --> 0:10:03.360 the plan. 0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:07.640 This is a much more serious disruption of oil than 0:10:07.679 --> 0:10:10.400 the ones that President Biden responded to. 0:10:10.760 --> 0:10:12.240 We also saw it used at. 0:10:12.160 --> 0:10:15.320 Various times on the eve of certain presidential elections when 0:10:15.400 --> 0:10:18.959 gasoline prices go up. As we know, gasoline prices are 0:10:19.040 --> 0:10:22.800 the most sensitive prices in the country, particularly sensitive in 0:10:22.840 --> 0:10:26.880 an election year. So I think that it will be 0:10:26.960 --> 0:10:29.680 a judgment that this you need to send it into 0:10:29.720 --> 0:10:33.960 the market to reassure the markets. I remember that on 0:10:34.040 --> 0:10:36.960 the eve of the Gulf War nineteen ninety one, they 0:10:37.000 --> 0:10:40.840 released the strategic reserves and the price, instead of going 0:10:40.880 --> 0:10:43.280 up as people thought, went down. So I think I 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:45.360 would expect and it's not only the US, but you 0:10:45.360 --> 0:10:47.800 have all these other Ia countries and China has built 0:10:47.840 --> 0:10:50.640 up huge reserves that those will be used. 0:10:51.320 --> 0:10:53.200 I think we want to talk more about China, We 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:55.079 want to talk more about Russia. We want to talk 0:10:55.120 --> 0:10:57.560 more about several things, which is why we're keeping you 0:10:57.600 --> 0:10:59.240 captive here in our green room, and we will be 0:10:59.320 --> 0:11:02.480 back with you shortly after we cover a few other things. 0:11:02.559 --> 0:11:04.280 Yes, great to have with us here on Zet. 0:11:04.320 --> 0:11:06.079 Dan Jerg advice chairman of vest in p Global again 0:11:06.120 --> 0:11:07.960 the author of the prize the Epiquest for Oil, Money 0:11:07.960 --> 0:11:10.160 and Power. Of course that book the winner the Pulitzer Prize. 0:11:10.160 --> 0:11:12.720 Most recently author of the New Map Energy, Climate and 0:11:12.720 --> 0:11:14.040 the Clash of Nations. 0:11:14.160 --> 0:11:16.280 Yes, thank you for making me feel slightly smart, Dan, 0:11:16.320 --> 0:11:17.280 I really appreciate it. 0:11:19.640 --> 0:11:22.640 Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend. Right 0:11:22.679 --> 0:11:23.200 after this. 0:11:35.480 --> 0:11:37.680 Prim mins from that. Yeah, who spoke yesterday in Israel. 0:11:37.720 --> 0:11:39.040 Quote a little bit from what he had to say 0:11:39.400 --> 0:11:42.080 to how today well organized plan with many surprises and 0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:45.200 suggested there are many more objectives, which he declined to 0:11:45.240 --> 0:11:47.679 list during that speech. On Saturday, I want to turn 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:50.000 out to former Ambassador tom Nydes He was the US 0:11:50.040 --> 0:11:52.720 ambassador to Israel from twenty twenty one to twenty twenty 0:11:52.720 --> 0:11:55.320 three and joins us on this Sunday morning. Ambassador, thank 0:11:55.320 --> 0:11:56.960 you very much for the time, and I want to 0:11:56.960 --> 0:11:59.200 start with a broad question, and that is, as we 0:11:59.240 --> 0:12:01.760 approach the second week of this war, how clear to 0:12:01.800 --> 0:12:05.880 you are the strategic objectives for Israel in this conflict. 0:12:06.880 --> 0:12:09.000 Well, first of all, thank you for having this early morning. 0:12:09.160 --> 0:12:11.800 I think God I got the clock straight. I got 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:12.520 you and me both. 0:12:12.640 --> 0:12:15.040 This is a big concern for everyone. Ambassador. We're very 0:12:15.080 --> 0:12:15.520 proud of you. 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:17.360 Yeah, let me listen. 0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:19.800 You know, one thing I've learned in my career here 0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:22.360 is foreign policy is very complicated. A lot of things 0:12:22.360 --> 0:12:25.720 can be true. At the same time, there's no question 0:12:25.800 --> 0:12:29.360 that all of us understand that Iran as a wicked 0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:32.720 regime what they have done in the last you know, 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:36.560 multiple decades, But certainly it's proven by what's happened here 0:12:36.640 --> 0:12:38.920 in the last couple of weeks. Not only have they 0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:41.640 killed you know, thousands of sounds of their own people 0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:46.079 who were protesting. But then they decided, which they've always done, 0:12:46.160 --> 0:12:48.280 is turned the guns on Israel, which we have known 0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:50.959 for and done seeing and witness for a long period 0:12:50.960 --> 0:12:55.920 of time, both through their proxies between Hamas and Hezbollah 0:12:56.040 --> 0:12:56.760 and the UTIs. 0:12:57.720 --> 0:12:59.920 They made a strategic decision. 0:12:59.559 --> 0:13:02.520 To there some of their allies in the Middle East, 0:13:02.520 --> 0:13:06.480 including Sairabia, Koway Cutter, the UEE that totally changed it 0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:10.600 in amics here. So one one for sure is that 0:13:10.679 --> 0:13:14.520 this is very complicated, and certainly, certainly for my person, 0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:18.280 I have no tears loss for uh the Supreme Leader. 0:13:19.040 --> 0:13:21.160 The other issue I think is obviously what you've been 0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:23.760 talking about on the air a lot, is what the 0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:27.080 endgame is. And I think you know when when the 0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:30.880 Prime Minister and the President talk about regime change, you know, 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:33.520 I've been around this for a long time, and I 0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:39.880 was involved in Afghanistan and in Iraq and Libya. Last 0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:42.840 time I checked, there is in Jeffersony democracies in those countries. 0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:45.599 So this is really complicated, guys, and we're going to 0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:47.760 have to all watch this play out in the next 0:13:48.000 --> 0:13:48.680 couple of weeks. 0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:50.920 I want to ask you about that relationship between the 0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:54.600 Prime Minister and the president and how much influence Benjamin 0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:57.959 now who has over President Trump. We've got a statement 0:13:58.000 --> 0:14:01.560 from the Iranian Foreign minister saying that who was duped 0:14:01.640 --> 0:14:05.120 into conflict? He says, they, meaning the American people, have 0:14:05.280 --> 0:14:08.120 ended up with an administration that Netanyahu, after decades of 0:14:08.160 --> 0:14:11.560 failed attempts, finally managed to dupe into fighting Israel's war. 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:14.080 What's your take on that and how influential do you 0:14:14.120 --> 0:14:18.080 think Israel was in convincing Washington to make this decision. 0:14:18.440 --> 0:14:19.640 Well, first of all, I don't think I'm going to 0:14:19.720 --> 0:14:24.080 be suggesting that the Iranian spokesperson actually knows what he's 0:14:24.440 --> 0:14:25.040 talking about. 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:26.040 I think there's a couple of things. 0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:29.160 First of all, no one regards if you love Israel, 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:32.440 don't believe that what Iran has been doing to Israel 0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:34.640 through its proxies. Look what they did with Kamas, Look 0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:36.960 what they did with Kama, with Hesblad, Look what they 0:14:36.960 --> 0:14:40.560 did their own people. So the idea that somehow people 0:14:40.640 --> 0:14:42.800 have been duped into up realizing that Iran as a 0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:44.760 bad actor is ridiculous. 0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:47.320 You know, I do I think that. 0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:51.920 You know, when I worked for President Biden, we supported 0:14:51.960 --> 0:14:56.320 Israel when the Iranians attacked Israel for the first time. 0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:59.640 You know, I supported them in defense but also offensively 0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:02.320 as well well. So I don't think anyone's necessarily called 0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:06.320 pushing Donald Trump around. I think that's somewhat absurd. I 0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:09.720 do think it is important to step back, and I 0:15:09.800 --> 0:15:11.760 understand two things. One is we have to understand what 0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:14.480 the objectives of this is. How do we determine what 0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:19.160 success is. I'm not sure success is necessarily quote regime change, 0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:21.120 but one will have to debate that. And I do 0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:23.920 believe Congress has a role here, guys. I think it's 0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:26.400 important for us to understand that, and I think that 0:15:26.760 --> 0:15:29.120 we'll be debated for a long period of time the 0:15:29.200 --> 0:15:33.400 role of Congress as relates to this particular war. 0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:35.680 You bring up Hesbal, and I want to ask you 0:15:35.680 --> 0:15:38.560 about Lebanon, because we've seen Israel's attacks now kind of 0:15:38.680 --> 0:15:40.840 venture into Lebanon more and more. And I'm going to 0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:43.160 play a little bit of sound here from Israel's Defense minister, 0:15:43.240 --> 0:15:47.080 Israel cats on what they're doing there in Lebanon. 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:49.520 Let's take a listen what you have to say in. 0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:52.400 The government of Lebanon and Lebanon will pay a eavy 0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:57.640 price if destroyed Lebanon, nime cossme they will also ruin it. 0:15:57.680 --> 0:16:01.440 And again, investor, you see this kind of renewed focus 0:16:01.480 --> 0:16:04.280 on Lebanon and Israel claiming there's no sort of territorial 0:16:04.320 --> 0:16:07.480 claim to Lebanon. What do you make of the way 0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:09.720 that this war is moving again into that country, not 0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:11.320 just in Iran, but into Lebanon as well. 0:16:11.920 --> 0:16:13.640 I don't know if you've been to Israel, and I'm 0:16:13.640 --> 0:16:16.000 sure some of you guys on this on the certain 0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:18.520 viewers who are watching us. You know, Lebanon shares a 0:16:18.520 --> 0:16:20.520 border with Israel, as you know, and it's right in 0:16:20.560 --> 0:16:23.040 the northern border. It's a huge risk and certainly has 0:16:23.160 --> 0:16:26.680 Blah has shown to be a terrible actor again a 0:16:26.760 --> 0:16:29.920 proxy of the Iranians. And I think you know we've seen, 0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:32.560 you know, it's eight months ago and a lot of 0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:36.080 intense fighting to diminish has Bla. You have a leader 0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:38.600 now in Lebanon who the President of the United States 0:16:38.640 --> 0:16:41.920 has met with. I think ultimately this is going to 0:16:41.920 --> 0:16:44.880 be continued to be a huge area of friction. Israel 0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:48.080 believes it has Blah has not been destroyed. It certainly 0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:52.400 hasn't been dismantled, they've been weakened, and certainly there's the 0:16:53.080 --> 0:16:56.080 state sponsor of their terrorism, which is Iran, has been weakened. 0:16:56.440 --> 0:16:58.440 But it's a huge threat to Israel, and so listen 0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:01.360 I I for one, have been big advocate of obviously 0:17:01.360 --> 0:17:04.080 strengthening the President of Lebanon to attempt to try to 0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:08.360 make these ob sectarian things come together. But it's hugely 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:11.320 problematic for the Israelis and certainly those Israelis who are 0:17:11.320 --> 0:17:12.840 living in the northern part of the country. 0:17:13.520 --> 0:17:15.560 I want to shift a little bit and ask you, 0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:17.680 because you weren't ambassador, because you're in the State Department, 0:17:18.119 --> 0:17:22.560 your perspective on the consular part of this. There has 0:17:22.600 --> 0:17:25.119 been a lot of criticism that the US did not 0:17:25.200 --> 0:17:28.960 properly warn Americans in the region, its allies in the region, 0:17:29.080 --> 0:17:31.160 and did not have a plan even if you needed 0:17:31.160 --> 0:17:33.160 to keep that as a close hold, not to telegraph 0:17:33.160 --> 0:17:36.080 the attacks. There didn't seem to be a fast rollout 0:17:36.119 --> 0:17:39.000 plan to evacuate Americans out of the region. You know, 0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:41.960 we had that one authorized departure for Tel Aviv, but 0:17:42.000 --> 0:17:44.080 I didn't see them for other places and other places 0:17:44.080 --> 0:17:46.840 around the region. Kutar Uae Bahrain have all been hit 0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:49.560 really hard. We've got Americans who are trying to get out. 0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:52.680 The State Department now has organized charters. But what is 0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:55.560 your response to that initial response from the State's Apartment 0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:57.359 and whether they should have done more or better to 0:17:57.400 --> 0:17:58.280 get folks out faster. 0:17:58.560 --> 0:18:01.320 Listener, you know, I can't to sit around and second, guest, 0:18:01.440 --> 0:18:03.159 I was a Deputy Secretary of State and I was 0:18:03.200 --> 0:18:06.399 ambassador Israel. I don't think that there's people at the 0:18:06.400 --> 0:18:10.160 State Department that are reluctantly trying to communicate with people. 0:18:10.160 --> 0:18:13.720 I think it's complicated. You're in a military operation. Happens, 0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:15.879 it happens quickly, as you know, the rules are very 0:18:15.960 --> 0:18:21.280 quickly quick. If once the State Department UH says to 0:18:21.760 --> 0:18:25.560 the embassy staff that they should depart, they then have 0:18:25.640 --> 0:18:27.760 to make sure that any American who wants to leave, 0:18:27.840 --> 0:18:28.920 so it can't be adopt. 0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:30.760 That notice has to be public for that reason. 0:18:30.880 --> 0:18:31.080 Yeah. 0:18:31.160 --> 0:18:32.600 There, I think they'll be. They'll be. 0:18:32.680 --> 0:18:34.640 Yeah, they'll be. The people will step back. I think 0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:37.520 there again. I'm not here to be, you know, being 0:18:37.560 --> 0:18:40.560 trying to be overly critical because it's really really complicated. 0:18:40.640 --> 0:18:42.320 The men and women who work at the Stage Department, 0:18:42.400 --> 0:18:45.680 the career. People want to do the right thing. They 0:18:45.760 --> 0:18:48.800 tried to getting charters in. It is not simple to do, 0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:52.199 especially when the airspace is complicated. So I just I 0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:54.560 think everyone needs to again. I believe me, I have 0:18:54.680 --> 0:18:58.720