1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,400 Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making 2 00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:05,920 Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know 3 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news 4 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:10,840 Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is 5 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier, 6 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:17,960 Speaker 1: and more trustworthy mainstream by becoming a Breaking Points Premium 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money 8 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and 9 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage 10 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:28,640 Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most 11 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for? 12 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:54,160 Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody, 13 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. 14 00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: What do we have, chrissal Indeed, we do lots of 15 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 1: interesting news that we are looking at this morning. So 16 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 1: first of all, some big questions about just how accurate 17 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 1: the midterm polls are a little bit of deja vu here, 18 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:10,839 Speaker 1: so a lot of caveats about some of the numbers 19 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:13,360 Speaker 1: you may be seeing coming out. Nate con at the 20 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:15,319 Speaker 1: New York Times has been digging into that so we'll 21 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 1: break all of that down for you. Also, the very 22 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 1: latest developments in terms of that Ukraine counter offensive wildly 23 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:24,399 Speaker 1: successful thus far, they continue to gain ground. What does 24 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 1: it mean and what is the reaction within Russia? That 25 00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:30,320 Speaker 1: is also very interesting. Now we have a vote coming 26 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:34,160 Speaker 1: up allegedly on gay marriage, some real questions of or 27 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 1: whether Democrats will be able to pull sufficient Republican votes 28 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:40,560 Speaker 1: to overcome the filibuster. Some new updates about who is 29 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 1: in and who is out in terms of that vote 30 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 1: and what all of that means. Also, some new legal 31 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 1: developments with regard to Trump and the whole MAGA world 32 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 1: actually very interesting. So you had send this to me 33 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 1: last week, Steve Bannon out there saying like thirties I 34 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 1: think he said thirty six people's homes were rated, right, Well, 35 00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 1: maybe not exactly accurate, but we have just learned that 36 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 1: something like forty subpoenas were served to various former Trump 37 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 1: aids and accolytes just in the past week. So major 38 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:11,360 Speaker 1: escalation in terms of the DOJ's effort there. We also 39 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,239 Speaker 1: have an update for you on our good friend Brian 40 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,839 Speaker 1: Stelter where he is headed next today for real, Jeff 41 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 1: Stein is going to join us to talk about some 42 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 1: technical issues with Jeff yesterday, but today we feel confident 43 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 1: we're going to get him in to talk about the 44 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 1: legal case against student loan debt being crafted by Republicans. 45 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 1: But before we get to any of that, two things discount. 46 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:35,840 Speaker 1: So for the next few weeks we have a ten 47 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 1: percent discount on the annual membership to help us to 48 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 1: can continue to build and grows. You guys know Emily 49 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 1: and Ryan launched their show this week on Friday, so 50 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 1: very excited about that. It's going to be great. Yeah, 51 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 1: it's going to be awesome. Help us out with that 52 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:49,799 Speaker 1: annual membership. You get ten percent off and that helps 53 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: us be able to plan for the future. Yes, it's 54 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 1: very very helpful. Like we said, both cash flow perspective, 55 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: hire new people, develop all the graphics, the team, all 56 00:02:57,120 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 1: of the costs outlays that stuff like this cost. Also, 57 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: we've got the live show in Chicago. We've got one 58 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: month to sell this thing out. Tickets are on sale 59 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 1: right now for premium subscribers. It's going to be in 60 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 1: the premium newsletter for those who just went ahead and 61 00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:14,360 Speaker 1: signed up, so we'll be right there in your email. 62 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:16,959 Speaker 1: There are instructions on how exactly to do the artist 63 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 1: pre sale. Tickets on sale to the general public on Friday, 64 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 1: for those of you who want to buy those. Chicago, Illinois. 65 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:26,480 Speaker 1: I want to reiterate again, Midwesterners, this is probably the 66 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:30,120 Speaker 1: major Midwest show given the way that the economics of 67 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 1: these things work, which would shock you if you were 68 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 1: interested in the particulars. So Chicago is going to be 69 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:37,840 Speaker 1: the flagship show that we're going to be having there 70 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:39,520 Speaker 1: in the region. If you're there and you want to 71 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 1: come by, it's going to be a great, great time. 72 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 1: I've already had some interesting people say that they're going 73 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:47,040 Speaker 1: to be on the way for a few celebrities will 74 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 1: be happening in the crowd, So I think you will 75 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 1: enjoy that. Breaking news here. It's breaking a little bit 76 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 1: after we've finished filming the show, but it's so important 77 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 1: enough that we want to go ahead and include it. 78 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 1: So that's why it's a little bit disjointed today. So 79 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: the US and inflation numbers have just come out for August. 80 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 1: Here's what they are. Inflation is eight point three percent 81 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 1: in August year over year, very high, down slightly from 82 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 1: eight point five percent year over year in July and 83 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 1: nine point one percent in June. However, and this is 84 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 1: the most important one, inflation actually rose by point one 85 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:22,920 Speaker 1: percent in August when many expected it to drop. Shelter, food, 86 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 1: and medical care are the ones which are up, which 87 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 1: is offsetting the ten percent decline in gas prices. Food 88 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 1: in particular is the one which is really concerning. Crystal 89 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:35,599 Speaker 1: Heatherlong the Washington Post, noting, quote, the food index is 90 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:38,719 Speaker 1: increased by eleven point four percent over the last year, 91 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:41,840 Speaker 1: and the largest twelve month increase since the period ending 92 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 1: in May of nineteen seventy nine. So even though gas 93 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 1: prices are down by almost ten eleven percent over the 94 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 1: last I think one hundred days that they've dropped every 95 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:54,280 Speaker 1: single day, has not been enough to offset shelter and 96 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 1: food costs. So shelter in particular come in extraordinarily hot 97 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 1: as to how high renters are paying. It's really a tragedy, 98 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 1: and it just shows you that you can't just get 99 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 1: out of this by focus on gas alone. Yeah, that's right. 100 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:09,159 Speaker 1: So gas is down ten point six percent just in 101 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 1: a single month. So the fact that you have these 102 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 1: other factors which have pushed inflation to continue to rise 103 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 1: really shows you how severe the price hikes were in 104 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 1: those key categories that you're talking about here. So if 105 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 1: you look year over year, you know some of the 106 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:26,799 Speaker 1: price hikes we're talking about here. Airline fares up thirty 107 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:29,720 Speaker 1: three percent, electricity up fifteen point eight percent, food at 108 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:31,920 Speaker 1: home up thirteen and a half percent, new vehicles up 109 00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 1: ten percent, food away from home up eight percent, and 110 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 1: on and on and on. Shelter year over year up 111 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:41,920 Speaker 1: six point two percent. So obviously these are key categories 112 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 1: that hit the household budget directly, and people really feel immediately. 113 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:48,719 Speaker 1: The reason why this is such a big deal and 114 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:50,719 Speaker 1: why we wanted to do a breaking new segment on it, 115 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:53,919 Speaker 1: is because the expectation had actually been that month to 116 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 1: month the inflation rate would tick down a bit, so 117 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 1: maybe zero point three percent was rightly what the expectation was, 118 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:03,919 Speaker 1: that it would decline, and said you had a point 119 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 1: one percent increase. Now the markets are reacting very strongly. 120 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: The last I looked out, Jones was down like five 121 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 1: hundred points all because now the expectation is set that 122 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:18,279 Speaker 1: for sure, the FED is going to continue with those 123 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:23,039 Speaker 1: aggressive rate hikes we already covered yesterday. How Lale Branard, 124 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 1: who is the second policymaker in command over at the FED, 125 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 1: was sounding notes of we're going to continue this aggressive policy. 126 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 1: This in spite of the fact that their own research 127 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 1: in certain regard in certain instances shows that there is 128 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 1: a risk that they move too fast and too aggressively 129 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:43,559 Speaker 1: and spark a severe recession. Of course, we also now 130 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:46,040 Speaker 1: know that Jerome Palell, who is the President of the FED, 131 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 1: has said that he wants there to be some pain, 132 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 1: that he thinks that that is necessary. And of course 133 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 1: you have people like Larry Summers out there saying, oh, 134 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 1: we have to have unemployment at ten percent in order 135 00:06:57,040 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 1: to get inflation under control. So this is only going 136 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:02,119 Speaker 1: to contin you to make the case to the FED 137 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: to hike interest rates, even as you see thus far 138 00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:10,560 Speaker 1: they've taken some aggressive action and it hasn't worked. Why well, 139 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 1: one reason could be because, as we've documented many times, 140 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 1: as Elizabeth Warren, to her credit, has been pointing out, 141 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 1: the fed's tools do not get at the core reasons 142 00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 1: that we are having this inflationary spiral. So that's why 143 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:28,320 Speaker 1: this is so significant. It really determines the FED after 144 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 1: we had seen some signs that inflation might be easing 145 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 1: and certainly gas prices have come down a lot that 146 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 1: has made consumers feel a little bit better. Consumer sentiment 147 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 1: ticking up with these new numbers, this is going to 148 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 1: almost set in stone that the FED will at least 149 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:43,960 Speaker 1: do another point seventy five rate hyphenextcent at the very 150 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 1: least that's happening. One of the important points pointed out 151 00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 1: by Derek Thompson is part of the reason why inflation 152 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:52,440 Speaker 1: is so high in shelter is that, yeah, the current 153 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 1: rent rates might be down, but everybody else is still 154 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 1: locked in at the past one So housing policy and 155 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 1: rent inflation and shelter is still going to very much 156 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 1: be high for six to eight months. FED policy has 157 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 1: no impact on the current locked in rates at all 158 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 1: or many of the other things that people have had 159 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 1: to pay. So look, we'll see how it works out, 160 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 1: but undoubtedly it means if FED will hike RCE. What's 161 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 1: the dow at right now? The market stop? Oh yeah, 162 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 1: I'm assuming that that's going to h yeah. Go, So 163 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 1: we're down six hundred and twenty five points. We were 164 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: filming this segment. Not great, So we'll see how it 165 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:31,240 Speaker 1: all works out. Yeah, all right, guys, show continues. Let's 166 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:34,280 Speaker 1: get to the show. Okay, So let's start with the polls. 167 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 1: Big breakdown from Nate Cone over at the New York Times, 168 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 1: seeing a lot of the same signs that we saw 169 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty that the polls in some key states 170 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 1: are once again overstating Democratic support. So let's go ahead 171 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:50,320 Speaker 1: and put this first piece up on the screen here. 172 00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 1: The headline here is yes, the polling warning signs are 173 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 1: flashing again. Let me read you a little bit of this, 174 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:01,079 Speaker 1: because I think it is very illustrative. This one example 175 00:09:01,080 --> 00:09:03,680 Speaker 1: they give in particular, he says that early in the 176 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 1: twenty twenty cycle, they noticed that Joe Biden seemed to 177 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:08,600 Speaker 1: be outperforming Hillary Clinton in the same places where the 178 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 1: polls overestimated her support four years earlier. The pattern didn't 179 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 1: necessarily mean the polls would be wrong. It could have 180 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 1: just reflected mister Biden's promised strength among white working class voters, 181 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 1: for instance, But it was a warning sign. Of course. 182 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 1: That warning side did turn out to be correct in 183 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 1: twenty twenty. Of course, Joe Biden did win. But you'll 184 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:29,559 Speaker 1: recall some of the polls were wildly off, especially in 185 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:33,440 Speaker 1: places like Ohio, Wisconsin, sort of the industrial Midwest. Has 186 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 1: been a real issue for polsters lately. So they give 187 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 1: the example of Wisconsin. On paper, they say, the Republican 188 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 1: center Ron Johnson ought to be favored to win reelection. 189 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:47,199 Speaker 1: The five thirty eight fundamentals index, for instance, makes him 190 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:51,199 Speaker 1: a two point favorite. Instead, the polls have exceeded the 191 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 1: wildest expectations of Democrats. The state's gold standard Marquette Law 192 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:59,160 Speaker 1: School survey even showed the Democrat Mandela Barnes, leading mister 193 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 1: Johnson by seven percentage points. But in this case, good 194 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 1: for Wisconsin Democrats might be good too good to be true. 195 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:09,520 Speaker 1: The state was ground zero for survey EIR in twenty 196 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:12,120 Speaker 1: twenty when pre election polls proved too good to be 197 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 1: true for mister Biden. In the end, the polls overestimated 198 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:19,080 Speaker 1: him by about eight percentage points. Early enough, mister Barnes 199 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 1: is faring better than expected by an almost identical margin now. 200 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 1: Most posters, he also says, haven't made significant methodological changes 201 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:30,959 Speaker 1: since the misses of twenty twenty. I mean, at least 202 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:33,320 Speaker 1: after twenty sixteen. There was a theory of why the 203 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:35,320 Speaker 1: polls might be better. In twenty sixteen, they had a 204 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:37,319 Speaker 1: theory about why they were so off it was like, oh, 205 00:10:37,320 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 1: we're underestimating. We're not looking at the education stash and 206 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:46,000 Speaker 1: class status, we're undercounting white working class voters in particular. Okay, 207 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 1: we've made the adjustments this time, We've got it. And 208 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:50,960 Speaker 1: then twenty twenty comes through and you have a very 209 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 1: very similar polling miss in some of the very same 210 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 1: states that they missed in twenty sixteen. But this time 211 00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 1: around the polster didn't really even pretend to know why. 212 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:02,560 Speaker 1: There were some theories and there was some conjecture that 213 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 1: we covered like liberals or home during the pandemic, or 214 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:08,880 Speaker 1: liberals are just really excited to answer polls, but nothing 215 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:12,680 Speaker 1: was really adjusted in the methodology. So it would follow 216 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 1: that you may have some of the very same polling 217 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:17,360 Speaker 1: errors that you had last time. This is the thing 218 00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:20,040 Speaker 1: I don't understand, which is that And people who are 219 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 1: polling nerds might recall this. The polls in twenty twelve 220 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:27,600 Speaker 1: were actually very good. Everybody remembers Nate Silver the five 221 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 1: thirty eight website called like almost all fifty states, like 222 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:35,199 Speaker 1: most of the Senate races. His book became a national bestseller. 223 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:37,320 Speaker 1: I mean me many others were like, oh my god, 224 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 1: it's been finally been cracked, and I think, really what 225 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:42,600 Speaker 1: has happened is a Trump genuinely did to change everything 226 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:44,920 Speaker 1: about American politics. He changed the type of people who voted, 227 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 1: He changed the type of people who came out, basically 228 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 1: made the models of the people who do come out 229 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:55,080 Speaker 1: to vote just completely change in the demographics and traditional 230 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 1: ones that you could use. And from that point forward, 231 00:11:57,559 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 1: they just haven't been able to figure out. In a way, 232 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 1: it's like a reflection of our society. We've got a 233 00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 1: political realignment going on. We have a much more online population, 234 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:08,440 Speaker 1: people not answering phones as much, and at a certain point, 235 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:12,200 Speaker 1: the industry also just doesn't know what to do. And 236 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:14,640 Speaker 1: it does make it so that many of these have 237 00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:16,800 Speaker 1: to be greeted by people like ourselves. We have the 238 00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:19,600 Speaker 1: best data that we possibly can. Yeah, but unfortunately most 239 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:22,000 Speaker 1: people in the media crystal are not giving the caveats 240 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:25,040 Speaker 1: outside of this one guy, and even he has been criticized. 241 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:28,319 Speaker 1: I saw some people at critic people the Democrats predictably 242 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:32,320 Speaker 1: are like, well, no one's ever wrong for understating democratic support. 243 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:34,720 Speaker 1: It's like, well, that hasn't happened like eight years. Yeah, 244 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:37,400 Speaker 1: So you know, I don't know where you're coming from here. Yeah, yeah, 245 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:39,840 Speaker 1: And I mean there are occasional polls, like, for example, 246 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:42,679 Speaker 1: Colorado seems to be a state where the polls kind 247 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: of consistently underestimate Democratic support. So there are a few 248 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:48,960 Speaker 1: states that are like that, but overwhelmingly the issue has 249 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:51,959 Speaker 1: been in the other direction, and especially in states where 250 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:54,839 Speaker 1: you have a large white working class vote. I think 251 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:57,680 Speaker 1: it's I mean, this is speculation because no one really 252 00:12:57,679 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 1: knows exactly why this is going on. But I think 253 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 1: it's not just changing who's voting, the types of people 254 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:05,840 Speaker 1: are voting, the coalitions of the various parties. But I 255 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 1: think with Trump you have such an overt like anti 256 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 1: institution messaging and orientation that he's also making his voters 257 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 1: more skeptical of responding to polls and you know, talking 258 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 1: to pollsters and those sorts of things. So I think 259 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:22,200 Speaker 1: that might be part of it as well, But you know, 260 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:25,439 Speaker 1: like everybody else, I don't really know. Let's take a 261 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 1: look at this next piece, which is a chart showing 262 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 1: if the polling miss is as big as it was 263 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:35,880 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, what will the results actually look like. 264 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 1: And let me just go through these. So in Colorado, basically, right, 265 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 1: now the poll says DEM is plus nine. If there's 266 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 1: a twenty twenty like Pole error, the dem will win 267 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:47,960 Speaker 1: by nine. So Colorado is pretty much on the money 268 00:13:48,040 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 1: last time around. In Pennsylvania, right now, the polls have 269 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 1: Fetterman up by eight. If you have a twenty twenty 270 00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:57,240 Speaker 1: like Pole error, you will end up with Fetterman by five, 271 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,440 Speaker 1: so he still wins, but by less. In Arizona, you 272 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:03,440 Speaker 1: cut the DEM lead from eight, which is reflecting the polls, 273 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:06,320 Speaker 1: down to six. In Wisconsin, this is the big one. 274 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:11,040 Speaker 1: You cut the DEM lead from four to a Republican 275 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:16,120 Speaker 1: win by four. In Nevada, you have plus three for 276 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 1: the Democrats right now. That one would be true top 277 00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 1: toss up less than one for the Dems. In Georgia 278 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:25,240 Speaker 1: right now, you've got plus two. Georgia has been fairly accurate, 279 00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:27,880 Speaker 1: and lo and behold, george is also one of the 280 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 1: states where the polling has continued to be very very tight, 281 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 1: basically in line with what your expectation would be for 282 00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:36,560 Speaker 1: that state. North Carolina right now is showing den plus one. 283 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 1: With that twenty twenty like Pole air, you'd get plus 284 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 1: two Republicans. Ohio, this is another big, big one again 285 00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 1: industrial Midwest, large white working class voter base. Right now, 286 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:50,720 Speaker 1: you've got Tim Ryan, the Democrat, leading by less than 287 00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:54,040 Speaker 1: one percentage point with an error similar to twenty twenty. 288 00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 1: You've got JD Vance easily winning here by seven points, 289 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 1: which I think is more in line with what you 290 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 1: would expect. Florida is the last one on the list here. 291 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 1: Right now they have Marcro Rubio leading that the Republican 292 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:06,520 Speaker 1: by five. If you have a twenty twenty like pole 293 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 1: air Mark Rubio will easily win that race by eleven points. 294 00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 1: So if you look at this in totality, first of all, 295 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 1: you see the Senate. The race for the Senate to 296 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:21,960 Speaker 1: control the Senate is extremely extremely close. Republicans only have 297 00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 1: to net one single seat, So essentially you're looking at 298 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 1: probably control of the Senate coming down to very close 299 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 1: races in Nevada and Georgia to determine control of the Senate. 300 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:36,880 Speaker 1: If you look at and this is the commentary from 301 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 1: Holly Ottobin here, she says, as it happens, the if 302 00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 1: polls were as wrong as they were in twenty twenty 303 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 1: column from Today's New York Times story seems more in 304 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 1: line with where political insiders actually think these races are. So, 305 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:51,800 Speaker 1: you know, our general rule of thumb here has been, 306 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 1: especially in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, to 307 00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:59,320 Speaker 1: knock a few points off of the Democratic whatever their 308 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 1: polls are saying. That's kind of a good rule of thumb. 309 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 1: If you look at this chart, oh completely look, I mean, 310 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:08,680 Speaker 1: the idea of runaway Democratic victories in these formerly quote 311 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 1: blue wall states, I just think it's a fantasy, has 312 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:15,360 Speaker 1: been since twenty sixteen. The Fetterman plus five as opposed 313 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 1: to plus eight eleven or whatever people are saying, that 314 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 1: reads much more in line with what Pennsylvania appears to be. 315 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:23,800 Speaker 1: Still think plus five for freedomen is probably still too 316 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: overstated exactly. I mean, listen, Trump one Pennsylvania in two 317 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 1: thousand and six. There it's just a very closely divided state. 318 00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:33,640 Speaker 1: He only one pen lost Pennsylvania by one percentage point. 319 00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: It's like in that environment, there's just no way a 320 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,640 Speaker 1: Democrat's gonna win by eleven points. Even if they do win, 321 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 1: it's gonna be like Virginia where Glenn Younkin, how much 322 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:43,240 Speaker 1: do you win by like one point five percent point 323 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 1: in an absolute red wave victory. So that's what people 324 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,920 Speaker 1: have to consider. Same Wisconsin. Everyone's like, oh, Ron Johnson, 325 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: and listen, we'll talk about Ron Johnson later in the show. 326 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 1: Maybe he's trying everything to do to lose, but he 327 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:57,560 Speaker 1: did that last time, and he also won by basically 328 00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:00,560 Speaker 1: coming out and you know, defying the pole. You also 329 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:02,880 Speaker 1: found this which I thought was really important. Let's put 330 00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 1: this up there, which is that those of us who 331 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:07,800 Speaker 1: were in twenty eighteen, the media cast it very much 332 00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:10,200 Speaker 1: as a blue DEM wave. But as Philip Bump points 333 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:13,160 Speaker 1: out here, you know, twenty eighteen was not the outlier 334 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:16,160 Speaker 1: that people think. Senate polls that year were also very 335 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:19,640 Speaker 1: off the mark. It's the national House polling, which wasn't. 336 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:22,159 Speaker 1: Everybody focused on Pelosi and all of that. But I 337 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 1: remember also at the time, people were considering, oh my gosh, 338 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:29,159 Speaker 1: Marsha Blackburn might lose in Tennessee. Yeah, that didn't happen. 339 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:32,160 Speaker 1: They're like, oh, well, we're going to see big red 340 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:35,960 Speaker 1: gains and some of these gonna win and get none 341 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:38,919 Speaker 1: of these things happened, and everyone does seem to just 342 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:41,320 Speaker 1: memory hole. I mean, I will never forget. Ahead of 343 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:45,040 Speaker 1: the election, Wisconsin supposed to being Trump a minus seventeen 344 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:49,480 Speaker 1: or Biden plus seventeen in Wisconsin, or even in twenty twenty. 345 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 1: I mean, remember Jamie Harrison. They were like, Jamie Harrison 346 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,160 Speaker 1: is within one point of South Carolina. He lost by 347 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:58,639 Speaker 1: seventeen points. He literally lost by the same margin as 348 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:00,919 Speaker 1: the last person who ran against Lindsay Graham. He just 349 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 1: took eighteen million dollars more to do it, and now 350 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 1: he's the DNC chair. Yeah, somebody go in and riddle 351 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,720 Speaker 1: me back. Yeah, that's interest, isn't it. Well, the important 352 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 1: point about twenty eighteen is, first of all, part of 353 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 1: why the result, even though it was a good year 354 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 1: for Democrats. You know, women really came out, the sort 355 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 1: of suburban vote consolidated behind Democrats. They did, you know, 356 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:25,159 Speaker 1: they gained control of the House, like it was a 357 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:28,120 Speaker 1: good year for them. But part of why it fell 358 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:31,520 Speaker 1: short of expectations is because you did have polling misses. 359 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:34,640 Speaker 1: So there's been this kind of conventional wisdom that has 360 00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:37,560 Speaker 1: developed of like, oh, well, the problem with polling only 361 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:40,240 Speaker 1: happens when Trump's on the ballot. Happened in twenty sixteen 362 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:42,720 Speaker 1: and happened in twenty twenty. What this chart shows is 363 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 1: that's not really true. You also had significant pulling misses 364 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen, even when Trump wasn't on the ballot. 365 00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 1: Now you might say, okay, but he was in the 366 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 1: White House and the election was really a rough friendum 367 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:58,240 Speaker 1: on him, and it truly it was. But you know, 368 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 1: Trump is kind of still central to our politics right now. 369 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,000 Speaker 1: It's not like the guy is sidelines and not being 370 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:06,399 Speaker 1: talked about. He is very, very central to whatever is 371 00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:09,359 Speaker 1: going to happen this midterm. So what I would say is, 372 00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:12,480 Speaker 1: if we think back to that chart showing okay, well, 373 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:14,879 Speaker 1: if you have as much of a polling this in 374 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 1: this year as you had in twenty twenty, what is 375 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:19,800 Speaker 1: the result going to be? Ultimately, if it came down 376 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:22,359 Speaker 1: that way, Democrats would still end up with control of 377 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:25,680 Speaker 1: the Senate. It would still be on balance, a very 378 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 1: good year for them and much much better than what 379 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 1: they were expecting going in. But it's not going to 380 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:36,000 Speaker 1: be as good as some of the most hopeful estimates 381 00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 1: and what the polling reflects right now. And also, by 382 00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:42,639 Speaker 1: the way, this is a landscape with the assumed polling 383 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:46,199 Speaker 1: this where Republicans easily gain control of the House, that 384 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:49,159 Speaker 1: that's not really in question. So you know, we have 385 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,359 Speaker 1: been talking a lot about how much the mood has shift, 386 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,679 Speaker 1: how much things have shifted towards Democrats Postdobs. That's all 387 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:59,160 Speaker 1: totally true, but just keep in mind that doesn't mean 388 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:01,119 Speaker 1: they're going to win control of the House, certainly, and 389 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:02,920 Speaker 1: it doesn't mean they're going to win control of the Senate. 390 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 1: It's going to be very very tight, and it is 391 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 1: probably going to come down to very close races in 392 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:12,680 Speaker 1: Georgia and very close races in Nevada. So those things 393 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:14,639 Speaker 1: are all really important to keep in mind. Yeah, so 394 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:18,920 Speaker 1: let's underscore that it's tight. It's much tighter than people 395 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 1: will have you believe. I think Dobbs made it so 396 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:25,199 Speaker 1: that it has the chance of a couple of Democratic 397 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:28,360 Speaker 1: victories and upsets. But the chance is all that exists, 398 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 1: not like the shoe in that people are casting it. 399 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 1: Let me and let me just play devil's advocate here 400 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 1: and give the other side of the case, which is 401 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:38,639 Speaker 1: that okay, but we've had special election results and not 402 00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:42,160 Speaker 1: only have they gone for Democrats, those polls going into 403 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:47,080 Speaker 1: those special elections have actually understated Democratic support. So that's 404 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:49,320 Speaker 1: what someone who would argue in favor, No, it's actually 405 00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:51,400 Speaker 1: going to be a blue wave. No, actually, Ron Johnson 406 00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:53,640 Speaker 1: is on the ropes. No, actually Tim Ryan could pick 407 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 1: up the seat in Ohio. That's what they would point to. Now, 408 00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:00,440 Speaker 1: the again reason to sort of temper expectation and even 409 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 1: with those results, which I do think are important and 410 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 1: maybe the most important piece of data that we have 411 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 1: that does indicate something is different happening here in terms 412 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:11,399 Speaker 1: of Democrats. But what we saw in those elections is, 413 00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:13,240 Speaker 1: first of all, in a special election, you're going to 414 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 1: have a smaller voter turnout. You still had Republicans doing 415 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:20,240 Speaker 1: very well in rural areas and actually increasing their vote 416 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 1: total even over Donald Trump in certain instances in rural areas, 417 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:25,960 Speaker 1: but there was a huge flood in these sort of 418 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 1: like liberal especially college towns. That's not going to be 419 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:33,160 Speaker 1: representative of everywhere across the country. So that's a reason 420 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:35,160 Speaker 1: to take some of those results for with a little 421 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:36,879 Speaker 1: bit of a great deVie. I think that's exactly what 422 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 1: I was going to say. I was like, yeah, well, 423 00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:42,400 Speaker 1: the special elections are interesting, but they're more suburban, more educated, 424 00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 1: that's not the whole electorate. That doesn't work out in 425 00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:48,680 Speaker 1: a white working class Clay state. Smaller turnout, higher national mood. 426 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:50,439 Speaker 1: You know, the midterms are just going to be more 427 00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:53,240 Speaker 1: of a national referendum, and so whatever way the winds 428 00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:56,080 Speaker 1: are blowing, that's probably going to be more indicative. So 429 00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 1: let's actually dig into this Ohio race, because I do 430 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:01,119 Speaker 1: think that this is interesting. The new poll that is 431 00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:04,880 Speaker 1: out that is very good for the Democrats and continues 432 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:08,520 Speaker 1: to show Tim Ryan really in contention to actually win 433 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,239 Speaker 1: this Senate race in Ohio. Let's go ahead and put 434 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:13,600 Speaker 1: this up on the screen. This is a USA today 435 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:18,800 Speaker 1: Ohio Suffolk University poll found that forty seven percent of 436 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,160 Speaker 1: Ohio general election voters that they would vote or lean 437 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 1: towards Ryan if the Senate election were held today, well 438 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 1: forty six percent said they could back jd Vance. Of 439 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,600 Speaker 1: all the polls that we have been seeing lately, these 440 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,280 Speaker 1: ones out of Ohio are the ones I am the 441 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 1: most skeptical of. It should be. Ohio is the state. 442 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 1: And I have mentioned this before. I actually used to 443 00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:43,679 Speaker 1: live in the district in Ohio that has moved the 444 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 1: furthest the fastest to the right of any congressional district 445 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:50,159 Speaker 1: in the entire country. Of all the places in the 446 00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:52,320 Speaker 1: nation where you've had a real real line, I mean, 447 00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:54,159 Speaker 1: West Virginia is one of them. But in terms of 448 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 1: the swing states like Ohio has shifted very far to 449 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:02,480 Speaker 1: the right. You have a gardening partisan divide there. And 450 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:06,880 Speaker 1: we also have on the record from Hillary and from 451 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:11,120 Speaker 1: twenty eighteen and from Biden evidence that Ohio is one 452 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:14,480 Speaker 1: of these states where polsters just cannot get a good 453 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,160 Speaker 1: read on what is going on here. So listen, it's 454 00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:19,640 Speaker 1: true that if you wanted to make the opposite case, 455 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:23,040 Speaker 1: Tim Rive has been running very aggressively. His messaging I 456 00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 1: think has largely been pretty smart for Ohio, even if 457 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:29,160 Speaker 1: I'm not a huge fan of his. Jd Vance has 458 00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,360 Speaker 1: been pretty lackluster in terms of campaigning. He hasn't really 459 00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,040 Speaker 1: pivoted to a general election message. His fundraising has been 460 00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:38,480 Speaker 1: completely pathetic, and he's been star for cash in terms 461 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,160 Speaker 1: of putting up ads, hasn't spent enough time and say 462 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 1: all of these things. He's not running a particularly great campaign. 463 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 1: So that would be the argument. But you know, ultimately, 464 00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 1: I don't know that these candidate quality issues matter to 465 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,880 Speaker 1: the extent that they seem to be mattering in these 466 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 1: polls a couple points in one direction or the other 467 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 1: in a tight race. Yes, maybe but in terms of 468 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:04,400 Speaker 1: know a massive, like ten point swing in the direction 469 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,159 Speaker 1: of Tim Ryan over jd Vance, I just don't buy it. 470 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:08,600 Speaker 1: I don't see it at all. And you know, look, 471 00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:10,040 Speaker 1: I mean to be fair, in the last month or so, 472 00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,800 Speaker 1: he's gotten a mooider cash infusion from the NRSC, He's 473 00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:14,960 Speaker 1: got a little bit more cash on hand, yeah, buying 474 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:17,399 Speaker 1: more ads. He's been spending more time, are spending I 475 00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 1: think almost all his time in the state. They just 476 00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:22,760 Speaker 1: came out with a new blitz that I was looking 477 00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:25,320 Speaker 1: at that they're blanketing kind of the state across, very 478 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,199 Speaker 1: much in line with national GOP messaging. So I mean, 479 00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:30,639 Speaker 1: I guess that's it SECT pivoting to a normal campaign. Right. 480 00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:32,320 Speaker 1: The other thing, if you wanted to make the case 481 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,160 Speaker 1: for Tim Ryan, you would actually point to the fact 482 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:37,320 Speaker 1: that the NRSC is like coming in in a big 483 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,440 Speaker 1: way to bail him out, because it shouldn't have to happen. Yeah, 484 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:42,880 Speaker 1: I mean, it does show. It shows that they don't 485 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:45,080 Speaker 1: feel it's in the bag. They feel that they have 486 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:46,880 Speaker 1: to spend some money. And it was like thirty million 487 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,520 Speaker 1: dollars that I think the Senate Leadership funder whoever is 488 00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,879 Speaker 1: dumping into this race, they're having to spend in a 489 00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,960 Speaker 1: place where they really shouldn't have to spend any cash. 490 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,440 Speaker 1: This should be a gimme for Republicans at this point. 491 00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:01,359 Speaker 1: So you know, some people have been saying, well, okay, 492 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 1: by the Republican internals look the same as the public polling, 493 00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:07,640 Speaker 1: So maybe that's an indication that the polls are actually accurate. 494 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,639 Speaker 1: I just think that the Republican internals are probably also 495 00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,520 Speaker 1: pulling in a way that is missing some of what 496 00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,800 Speaker 1: is going on ultimately, because that is what happened last 497 00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:18,760 Speaker 1: time around as well. I think you're right. I mean, 498 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:20,960 Speaker 1: all we will say is, let's put this up there. 499 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,760 Speaker 1: We had our producer James compile this little tear sheet here. 500 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:28,080 Speaker 1: Biden leads Trump by seventeen points, Jamie Harrison tied with 501 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:32,679 Speaker 1: South Carolina. The tide has turned Susan Collins trails Sarah 502 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:36,359 Speaker 1: by thirteen points in a new Quinnipiac poll. I mean, 503 00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:39,280 Speaker 1: all of those in front of you should just give 504 00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:44,800 Speaker 1: you a tremendous amount of pause as to these Ohio polls, 505 00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:48,600 Speaker 1: any battleground state that you see, and just remember the 506 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:52,080 Speaker 1: national environment. And I think it's what shocking is. I 507 00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,440 Speaker 1: will stay by this I think almost every time we've 508 00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:56,840 Speaker 1: ever covered any of these, we will give a tremendous 509 00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 1: caveat say, remember twenty twenty, they're not doing that, even 510 00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,639 Speaker 1: though we know that the polling was wrong twice in 511 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 1: a row. Anyway, three times in a row twenty sixteen, 512 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:09,639 Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, and twenty twenty. Yeah, it's irresponsible to mislead people. 513 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,679 Speaker 1: Most importantly, I think it's very irresponsible if you're one 514 00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,399 Speaker 1: of these act blue types which are pouring millions of 515 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:18,280 Speaker 1: dollars into some of these campaigns. Tim Ryan, for example, 516 00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:21,600 Speaker 1: this guy's raising money cash onward. You should be honest. 517 00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:23,800 Speaker 1: I mean, at a national level, he obviously going to 518 00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,280 Speaker 1: do whatever he needs to do, but he should say, hey, listen, 519 00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:28,280 Speaker 1: you know it can't be bilking people out of money 520 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 1: whenever you're telling them, oh, this guy's up by twelve 521 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 1: fifteen points, and it's just outrageous from a national perspective. 522 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,280 Speaker 1: I wonder what you think, because my thinking is if 523 00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:38,679 Speaker 1: they get burned, what several times in a row, like, 524 00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:40,479 Speaker 1: are they always just going to fall for the amiram 525 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 1: of rafts of the world, Like somebody's got to wise 526 00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:44,720 Speaker 1: up some time. Like it's a lot of money that 527 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,040 Speaker 1: people are giving up hope. He might be right. Springs 528 00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:50,240 Speaker 1: Eternal suck. Guess you're right. I mean, ohst springs Eternal. 529 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,200 Speaker 1: I don't know if yeah, I don't know if people 530 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:56,080 Speaker 1: would be as quick to jump into like a Kentucky 531 00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:59,760 Speaker 1: versus Mitch McConnell kind of a race. But you know, 532 00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:02,440 Speaker 1: it wasn't that long ago. Ohio is a swing state. 533 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,000 Speaker 1: If you start to drink the kool aid and think that, Okay, 534 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,199 Speaker 1: this is starting to be a good year for Democrats, 535 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,000 Speaker 1: I think it's going to be hard to dissuade the 536 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:13,000 Speaker 1: grassroots donor base from giving money in large amounts to 537 00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:15,720 Speaker 1: guys like Tim Ryan. On the other hand, I mean 538 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:18,959 Speaker 1: Democrats really aren't suffering from a fundraising issue. It's not 539 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:20,880 Speaker 1: like the fact that they're giving to some of these 540 00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:22,640 Speaker 1: races that are more of a reach. I would say 541 00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:26,000 Speaker 1: Tim Ryan and Mandela Barnes. Although actually I still think 542 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:27,879 Speaker 1: Ron Johnson is going to win. I think Mandela Barnes 543 00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,040 Speaker 1: has more of a chance than a Tim Ryan does. 544 00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,320 Speaker 1: That's just in my estimation because I think Wisconsin is 545 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:37,119 Speaker 1: a closer state. Ultimately, it's exactly why I like plus eight. Yeah, no, 546 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,800 Speaker 1: Ohio at this. I mean it's look, I think Democrats, 547 00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,720 Speaker 1: if they actually did some different things from a national level, 548 00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:44,720 Speaker 1: maybe they could put Ohio back in play, but that's 549 00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 1: not where we are today. So anyway, they're still raising 550 00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:52,960 Speaker 1: tons of money into the states that are the swing 551 00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,440 Speaker 1: key states that are showing the polls are really close. 552 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:58,760 Speaker 1: I mean, Ravel Warnock has raised like one hundred million dollars. 553 00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:01,520 Speaker 1: Mark Kelly has raised a lot of money. They have 554 00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:03,920 Speaker 1: a real shot. So I think that one's fine, absolutely, 555 00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,440 Speaker 1: But that's what I'm saying is that these other races 556 00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:10,080 Speaker 1: that may ultimately end up being a distraction don't seem 557 00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:12,320 Speaker 1: to be hurting them on the fundraising front in the 558 00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:14,239 Speaker 1: places that are going to be key. And then you know, 559 00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,359 Speaker 1: the other counter argument there would be the fact that 560 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:19,680 Speaker 1: Tim Ryan is raising so much money and at least 561 00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:21,959 Speaker 1: making the polls close, even if the race doesn't end 562 00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,720 Speaker 1: up being close, is forcing Republicans to have to spend 563 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,119 Speaker 1: there as well. So it's forcing them to have to 564 00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:29,240 Speaker 1: play in states where they didn't really want to have 565 00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:32,359 Speaker 1: to focus and put so much money, spend so much money. 566 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:35,119 Speaker 1: That's causing problems for Blake Masters, for example, in Arizona 567 00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 1: because McConnell is not too eager to pony up for him, 568 00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:40,400 Speaker 1: begging Peter Teal to come back in and sort of 569 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,800 Speaker 1: rescue his but because his fundraising has been really lackluster, 570 00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,000 Speaker 1: so it actually hasn't worked out terribly for Democrats in 571 00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:49,920 Speaker 1: terms of the fundraising fials. I can't blame any candidate 572 00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:53,040 Speaker 1: for doing everything they can to make the case to 573 00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:55,120 Speaker 1: the public that they have a shot and that they 574 00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:57,520 Speaker 1: can win. If you've got polls coming out saying hey, 575 00:28:57,560 --> 00:28:59,360 Speaker 1: I'm up by one, I'm up by two, I'm tied, 576 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:01,440 Speaker 1: I'm down by one, of course you're going to put 577 00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:02,880 Speaker 1: those out and try to make the case and try 578 00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,480 Speaker 1: to get people to believe in what you are attempting 579 00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:07,600 Speaker 1: to pull off. Yeah, I think that's fair. We'll see 580 00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,880 Speaker 1: if it Yeah, you're probably right they it won't burn anybody. Yeah, well, 581 00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,520 Speaker 1: at least we tried. You know, after watching Democrats always 582 00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:15,720 Speaker 1: pour money into Texas, it's not like they ever learned well. 583 00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:18,680 Speaker 1: Bottom line, Just as you're looking at all of these 584 00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:23,360 Speaker 1: polls again, the ones where the biggest misses have consistently 585 00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,960 Speaker 1: been since twenty sixteen are where there is a large 586 00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:31,720 Speaker 1: white working class vote. Ohio Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, any of 587 00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:35,200 Speaker 1: the industrial Midwest. Those are the places where I would 588 00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:38,560 Speaker 1: take at Pennsylvania another one. Those are the places where 589 00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 1: I would be the most skeptical of the polling that 590 00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:44,880 Speaker 1: comes out. Actually, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, the polling has been 591 00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:47,520 Speaker 1: relatively good. And again lo and behold, the polls are 592 00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:51,360 Speaker 1: very tight in those states, reflecting probably a more accurate 593 00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:53,160 Speaker 1: picture of what's going on there. But there will be 594 00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:54,800 Speaker 1: only one way to find out, and that's the way 595 00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:56,600 Speaker 1: to election day and see what happens. That's the fun 596 00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,520 Speaker 1: part of covering politics and elections and everything keeps us 597 00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:01,040 Speaker 1: on its toe, on our toes. Let's go ahead and 598 00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:04,640 Speaker 1: move on to Ukraine. So Ukraine, the offensive is continuing 599 00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:06,840 Speaker 1: there in the eastern part of the country. Let's go 600 00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:09,160 Speaker 1: and put this up there on the screen since yesterday, 601 00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:11,960 Speaker 1: not as stunning gains, but still some pretty dramatic ones. 602 00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:15,120 Speaker 1: President Zelenski, again, I want to emphasize this is not confirmed. 603 00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,360 Speaker 1: This is according to the Ukrainians themselves. They claim that 604 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,240 Speaker 1: they have taken six thousand square kilometers, which is about 605 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,760 Speaker 1: twenty three hundred square miles. It's about a thousand square 606 00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,760 Speaker 1: kilometers more than what the number was on Sunday. The 607 00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:30,920 Speaker 1: exact battle lines and all that are relatively fluid, moving 608 00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,400 Speaker 1: back and forth, but in general we seem to have 609 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,160 Speaker 1: seen in an expansion of Ukrainian territory. They're in the 610 00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:39,440 Speaker 1: eastern part of the country in the Kharkiv offensive, retaking 611 00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:46,160 Speaker 1: settlements and towns. Russia basically increasing its shelling and it's bombing, 612 00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:49,640 Speaker 1: including use of missiles against the area and agrants to 613 00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:52,880 Speaker 1: Ukrainian supply lines. Their hope really is to try and 614 00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:57,560 Speaker 1: stop the offensive and reform a frontline that they can 615 00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:00,960 Speaker 1: use for a defensive attack. I found an interesting map. 616 00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,520 Speaker 1: Let's go and put this up there on the screen. Here. 617 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:07,719 Speaker 1: What you can see is red territory is Russian held 618 00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:11,600 Speaker 1: territory after February twenty fourth, so you can see where 619 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,960 Speaker 1: all that was. Then the other you know, the dark red. 620 00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:17,800 Speaker 1: What you're seeing for those I'm just describing is Russian 621 00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:21,719 Speaker 1: controlled territory from before February, whenever they invaded. But blue 622 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:25,640 Speaker 1: is actually all of the territory that has been reclaimed 623 00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:29,240 Speaker 1: by the Ukrainian military forces. So obviously in the upper 624 00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:31,880 Speaker 1: northern part of the country near Kiev, that's the part 625 00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,480 Speaker 1: of the past military campaign, but the success of the 626 00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:38,320 Speaker 1: current military operation is really seen in the Kharkiv area 627 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,560 Speaker 1: and where they have been able to just have a 628 00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 1: stunning victory in the Kharkiv Oblast over the last couple 629 00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:47,360 Speaker 1: of days. Their question now is do they keep rolling? 630 00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:51,040 Speaker 1: Do they have the capacity for this offensive capability? Do 631 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:54,280 Speaker 1: they have really the capacity in order to create a 632 00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:57,760 Speaker 1: new front line defend said frontline in the face of 633 00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:01,840 Speaker 1: an anticipated Russian counter attack that has not yet materialized. 634 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,280 Speaker 1: Don't yet know if it's happening. As much as the 635 00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:06,840 Speaker 1: Ukrainians have forty five days, so do the Russians. And 636 00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:10,480 Speaker 1: clearly their supply lines are a goddamn mess. It's really 637 00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:13,640 Speaker 1: stunning the more I've doun and read about this, which 638 00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:18,360 Speaker 1: is that the Russians are suffering from command and control 639 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:20,840 Speaker 1: problems all the way up and down, which is that 640 00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:24,120 Speaker 1: at the tactical level, their guys are giving up their weapons, 641 00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,720 Speaker 1: throwing them down, running away, their tanks are not working, 642 00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:31,920 Speaker 1: they appear not to have any capacity to maintain their equipment. 643 00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:36,000 Speaker 1: But also at a tactical level, their generals and other leadership, 644 00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:39,160 Speaker 1: despite cycling through many others, they clearly don't know what 645 00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:41,520 Speaker 1: they're doing, or they don't have a very good idea 646 00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:44,960 Speaker 1: of how to maintain this posture, even defensively. You know, 647 00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:47,200 Speaker 1: one of the reasons why I many others that I've 648 00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,000 Speaker 1: been reading were not deeply skeptical of any sort of 649 00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:54,040 Speaker 1: Ukrainian counter offensive is the defensive always has the advantage 650 00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:56,680 Speaker 1: in war, especially a great power military. That's literally what 651 00:32:56,720 --> 00:33:01,720 Speaker 1: they're designed to do is to hold lines, have supplied logistics, 652 00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:03,880 Speaker 1: all of the things that are supposed to be intrinsic 653 00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:06,440 Speaker 1: to what really makes you know, first class or quote 654 00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:09,959 Speaker 1: unquote second class military. But the Russians are acting almost 655 00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 1: like a developing force at this point, which is, you know, 656 00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:15,200 Speaker 1: really stunning. We saw some of that in Kiev. But 657 00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,040 Speaker 1: you know, given the fact they had months in order 658 00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:20,200 Speaker 1: to reinforce their supply lines, they had the entire summer, 659 00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:22,240 Speaker 1: you know, in order to work out some of these kinks, 660 00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:25,040 Speaker 1: it's just humiliating for them. And more and more things 661 00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:27,360 Speaker 1: are turning for them on the domestic front in a 662 00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:29,560 Speaker 1: pretty stunning way. Yeah. Well, I mean, there's just no 663 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,000 Speaker 1: doubt about it. Ukraine, with our help, really caught Russia 664 00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:34,560 Speaker 1: with their pants. Now. I mean I think that they 665 00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:37,160 Speaker 1: were and they continued to have more trouble on that 666 00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,400 Speaker 1: southern front, which is where they were sort of feigning 667 00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:42,720 Speaker 1: that they were going to focus a lot of their resources, 668 00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:45,520 Speaker 1: and then they go with this lightning effort in the 669 00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:49,440 Speaker 1: northeastern part of Ukraine with stunning success here. So Russia 670 00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:52,239 Speaker 1: had really sent some of their more seasoned operatives now 671 00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:54,400 Speaker 1: in south thinking that was going to be the focus 672 00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:57,800 Speaker 1: of this counter offensive. So you know, you have that, 673 00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:00,080 Speaker 1: you have the fact. Look just not a basic lifele 674 00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:04,160 Speaker 1: The Ukrainians are fighting for their homes, they're fighting for 675 00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:06,520 Speaker 1: their lives, they're fighting for their way of life, they're 676 00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:09,799 Speaker 1: fighting for their families. So this is the most motivated 677 00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:13,160 Speaker 1: group of people that you could possibly get. Russians, on 678 00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:15,480 Speaker 1: the other hand, are basically fighting because they have to, 679 00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:17,960 Speaker 1: because they don't want to be thrown in prison and 680 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:19,880 Speaker 1: they have you know, they want to get their paycheck 681 00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:25,040 Speaker 1: and hopefully make it back home to Russia. Putin approached 682 00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:27,879 Speaker 1: this thinking that he would just be able to roll through, 683 00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,520 Speaker 1: that they could do a sort of like little bit 684 00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:33,040 Speaker 1: of war over here, and that the domestic population really 685 00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:37,360 Speaker 1: wouldn't even notice. He did not build an ideological case 686 00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,919 Speaker 1: for this invasion and for this effort, and I think 687 00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:44,200 Speaker 1: that that also shows in the results that they've gotten 688 00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:47,440 Speaker 1: here on the ground. You know, now there is a 689 00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:50,239 Speaker 1: lot of pressure on Putin domestically to go forward with 690 00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:55,160 Speaker 1: a full general mobilization because ultimately, yeah, they are not 691 00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:59,040 Speaker 1: going to be able to succeed or even potentially hold 692 00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:01,520 Speaker 1: the lines of the February twenty fourth lines where they 693 00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:05,359 Speaker 1: were before this invasion started if they don't put more 694 00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:08,960 Speaker 1: resources and make the moral case whatever they can come 695 00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:11,520 Speaker 1: up with for their population that this war is worth 696 00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:13,759 Speaker 1: the effort and worth the cost and worth the sacrifice. 697 00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:17,319 Speaker 1: Here the sanctions haven't had the bite that you know, 698 00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:21,080 Speaker 1: the Western Powers thought that they would have, but they 699 00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:23,759 Speaker 1: are having an impact on the Russian academy, they are 700 00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:27,719 Speaker 1: having an impact on regular folks in Russia and in Moscow, 701 00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:30,360 Speaker 1: and they all are making it more difficult for Russia 702 00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:33,480 Speaker 1: to be able to resupply here ultimately, which is why 703 00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:35,600 Speaker 1: you see them having to cut deals with North Korea 704 00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:38,239 Speaker 1: as a care Yeah, yeah, that's correct, And look, I 705 00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:42,120 Speaker 1: mean the long term sustainable the whole issue is who 706 00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:45,080 Speaker 1: can hold out the longest. Obviously, the Ukrainians dug In 707 00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:48,200 Speaker 1: have now the capacity in order to have an offensive victory, 708 00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:50,439 Speaker 1: which is going to bolster them for months to come 709 00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:52,800 Speaker 1: and their case to the Europeans, into the Americans that 710 00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:55,320 Speaker 1: they need even more and more and more not to break, 711 00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:57,680 Speaker 1: you know, in the face of a natural gas problem 712 00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:00,879 Speaker 1: over the summer. So we'll see how exactly that works out. 713 00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:04,359 Speaker 1: It'll be interesting in order to see it all come through. 714 00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:07,920 Speaker 1: I wouldn't count the Russians out just yet. They still obviously. Look, 715 00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:09,919 Speaker 1: this is part of the issue, which is that we've 716 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,880 Speaker 1: seen many times in the past. You see a breakthrough, 717 00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:15,719 Speaker 1: some sort of offensive, but then the great power gets 718 00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:19,560 Speaker 1: its act together and will push you back. It's its 719 00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:22,680 Speaker 1: inherent advantages in war. But for that to kick in, 720 00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:25,880 Speaker 1: Putin has to fully mobilize his society to more of 721 00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:28,719 Speaker 1: a wartime footing, which he hasn't yet been willing to do. 722 00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:31,239 Speaker 1: Maybe he is. You also found this, which is that 723 00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:35,279 Speaker 1: we shouldn't presume that domestic turmoil in Russia is necessarily 724 00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:37,279 Speaker 1: a good thing for us or for Ukraine. Let's put 725 00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:39,760 Speaker 1: this up there. This is from the Financial Times quote. 726 00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:43,440 Speaker 1: If Putin is deposed, perhaps by a palace coup, his 727 00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:47,720 Speaker 1: replacement is more likely to be hardline nationalists than a liberal. 728 00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:51,759 Speaker 1: The most vocal descent being expressed in Russia is from 729 00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:57,399 Speaker 1: militarists and nationalists. We're calling for an escalation of the war. 730 00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:00,279 Speaker 1: So it's not like the First World War where the 731 00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:02,799 Speaker 1: dissenters were the ones who were saying, hey, we need 732 00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:05,080 Speaker 1: to be done with this imperial ambition and more. No, 733 00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:08,600 Speaker 1: no, no no, the people who are emboldened inside of at least, 734 00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:12,560 Speaker 1: you know, the people who matter, whoever might replace Putin, 735 00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:16,040 Speaker 1: they're worse than Putin. And I think that's a sobering 736 00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:19,520 Speaker 1: reminder of what the problems and the inherent characteristics towards 737 00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:22,520 Speaker 1: Russia It's regime and how it operates really are, you know, 738 00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:25,400 Speaker 1: at a strategic level for what the future may look like. 739 00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:27,560 Speaker 1: Even once he is gone. He's not getting pressure from 740 00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:29,560 Speaker 1: the doves in Russia. I mean, they don't really exist. 741 00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:31,560 Speaker 1: It's only like ten to fifteen percent or whatever. And 742 00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:34,319 Speaker 1: to the extent that they do, they're afraid. See some 743 00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:38,080 Speaker 1: of the right wing hypernationalists, the bloggers and stuff that 744 00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:41,120 Speaker 1: we covered yesterday, they really are kind of protected by 745 00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:44,080 Speaker 1: the FSB, by the military, so they can go further 746 00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,719 Speaker 1: in terms of their critique without being fearful of being 747 00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:51,480 Speaker 1: jailed or having any other sort of consequences. So they 748 00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:54,279 Speaker 1: are a larger faction in Russia, and they are a 749 00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:57,319 Speaker 1: much more vocal faction, and that's the area where the 750 00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:59,800 Speaker 1: pressure is coming from. It's coming from the people were saying, 751 00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:02,000 Speaker 1: you need to declare all out war, you need to 752 00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:04,840 Speaker 1: have a general nobilization, we need to go all in 753 00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,640 Speaker 1: on Ukraine. So that's really important to keep in mind. 754 00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:10,080 Speaker 1: And they go in in this article to say, listen, 755 00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:13,160 Speaker 1: a defeated Russia would not disappear off the map, and 756 00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:16,120 Speaker 1: it would still possess large numbers of nuclear weapons as 757 00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:19,640 Speaker 1: well as a replenished stock of grievances. So something to 758 00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:22,880 Speaker 1: keep in mind in terms of the risks inherent. Even 759 00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:26,960 Speaker 1: in a total Ukrainian victory and a total defeat of Russia, 760 00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:29,680 Speaker 1: there are still risking a lot of volatility there. They 761 00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:32,080 Speaker 1: also point out in the same piece they say, from 762 00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,319 Speaker 1: the beginning of the conflict, Putin has hinted Russia might 763 00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:37,040 Speaker 1: use nuclear weapons. A White House has always viewed this 764 00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:39,960 Speaker 1: possibility seriously, and as the war is dragged on and 765 00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:42,560 Speaker 1: gone badly for Russia, fears that Putin might resort to 766 00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:45,160 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons have received a little but they have not 767 00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:47,600 Speaker 1: gone away as one senior Western policy maker put it 768 00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:50,280 Speaker 1: to me last week, we have to remember that almost 769 00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:54,399 Speaker 1: every Russian military exercise we've observed has involved the use 770 00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:58,960 Speaker 1: of nuclear weapons. Another thing they float in this piece 771 00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:02,480 Speaker 1: is remember the the daughter who was carbomb who was 772 00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:06,279 Speaker 1: like this sort of Russian right wing nationalist figure. There's 773 00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:09,640 Speaker 1: a theory that the murder her name is Daria Dugan, 774 00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:14,680 Speaker 1: that she was actually murdered as by Russian security services 775 00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:18,640 Speaker 1: as a warning to Putin's ultra right critics. I don't 776 00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,279 Speaker 1: know that there's any evidence for that, but that's one 777 00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:23,880 Speaker 1: of the theories floating around in Russian circles. Is basically 778 00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:27,040 Speaker 1: because they see the threat to Putin coming from his right, 779 00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:30,520 Speaker 1: from the ultra nationalist circles, this was an attempt to 780 00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:32,680 Speaker 1: sort of send a message to them to sit down 781 00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:34,920 Speaker 1: and shut up. I mean, doesn't seem to have worked, 782 00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:38,759 Speaker 1: but I've heard crazier theories. Certainly one possibility. Can't count 783 00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:40,880 Speaker 1: it out. I mean, it's these guys all die in 784 00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:43,600 Speaker 1: mysterious circumstances all the time. Who was it that just 785 00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:46,640 Speaker 1: fell out of a hospital? Was the natural gas executives? Yeah, 786 00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:48,719 Speaker 1: some high level of natural gas exits, that's right. It 787 00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:51,719 Speaker 1: fell out of a hospital with no interesting So if 788 00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:55,280 Speaker 1: these guys die, I remember covering before the invasion of Ukraine, 789 00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:58,040 Speaker 1: like fifteen twenty sixteen, the same thing happened. If everyone 790 00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:01,160 Speaker 1: recalls those militia leaders who all accidentally shot down the 791 00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:04,480 Speaker 1: Malaysian airline flight over Ukraine, the same thing. A lot 792 00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:08,680 Speaker 1: of those guys ended up dead. Very mysterial windows or whatever, 793 00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:11,839 Speaker 1: very mysterious circumstances. There. There's a lot of falling off 794 00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:14,160 Speaker 1: of falconies and things that seem to happen. You think 795 00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:17,040 Speaker 1: they get more creative, you know, but listen, I don't 796 00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:19,359 Speaker 1: know if it works. If it works, and it's not 797 00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:22,960 Speaker 1: like anybody, it's not like anybody in their society descents. 798 00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:26,040 Speaker 1: Though that's not necessarily the case, because for the very 799 00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:28,719 Speaker 1: first time, let's put this up there, which is that 800 00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:32,480 Speaker 1: something new is happening on Russian TV debate. So they 801 00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:34,200 Speaker 1: point here, we wanted to play you guys some of 802 00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:36,440 Speaker 1: the clips, but because we have such a large podcast 803 00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:39,759 Speaker 1: audience on Russian Russian and it's not like the subtitles 804 00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:42,520 Speaker 1: would really help you out. But they just point to 805 00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:45,240 Speaker 1: the fact that even political talk shows on state owned 806 00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:49,400 Speaker 1: TV are really beginning to question the Kremlin. Here's what 807 00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:52,200 Speaker 1: one said quote, we are now at a point when 808 00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:55,080 Speaker 1: we have to understand it's impossible to defeat Ukraine using 809 00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:58,520 Speaker 1: those resources and colonial war methods with which Russia is 810 00:40:58,520 --> 00:41:01,400 Speaker 1: trying to fight. The Russian an army is fighting against 811 00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:04,640 Speaker 1: a strong army fully supported by the most powerful countries 812 00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:07,879 Speaker 1: in the economic and technological sense. Note the undertones there, 813 00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:11,279 Speaker 1: which is that he's calling it colonial war. He's characterizing 814 00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:14,160 Speaker 1: it as like a sideshow. So the intrinsic nature of 815 00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:16,880 Speaker 1: his comments is we need to act similarly. This is 816 00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:20,360 Speaker 1: a full scale war against NATO, against the West. Here's 817 00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:23,280 Speaker 1: what another one, this is from a member of the Duma. Quote, 818 00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:27,440 Speaker 1: we have been dealt a very serious psychological blow. He continues, 819 00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:31,080 Speaker 1: we must destroy the infrastructure that is being used for 820 00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:35,080 Speaker 1: military purposes, advocating for a total war against Russian or 821 00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:38,600 Speaker 1: a Ukrainian society. And probably an intrinsic also to that, 822 00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:42,360 Speaker 1: which is every time they say infrastructure for military purposes, 823 00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:46,400 Speaker 1: that's NATO supply lines that are coming into the country. Quote. 824 00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:49,800 Speaker 1: We cannot expect their affection if we tell the Ukrainians 825 00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:52,480 Speaker 1: they don't exist as an ethnicity. But there isn't a 826 00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:55,320 Speaker 1: Ukrainian language. That was one political that's one of the 827 00:41:55,360 --> 00:42:00,040 Speaker 1: most interesting to me. Was actually sort of like going 828 00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:03,040 Speaker 1: up against the what they describe as the ideological pretexts 829 00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:05,440 Speaker 1: that Putin used to launch the invasion. I mean they're 830 00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:08,840 Speaker 1: basically saying, like, and I watched there's some longer clips 831 00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:11,719 Speaker 1: floating around social media of some of these shows, which 832 00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:14,400 Speaker 1: are kind of funny to watch. They've clearly borrowed some 833 00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:17,400 Speaker 1: of the like like the CNN megapanels that have like 834 00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:19,480 Speaker 1: thirty people on them or whatever, like that's the vibe 835 00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:24,719 Speaker 1: of these shows. But they were saying essentially like, hey, 836 00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:26,960 Speaker 1: what do you think they told us that the Ukrainians 837 00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:28,879 Speaker 1: were going to greet us with like flowers and greet 838 00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:31,200 Speaker 1: us as liberators I guess, just as we were sold 839 00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:34,399 Speaker 1: on the Iraq War. And he's saying, what can we 840 00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:36,360 Speaker 1: We can't expect their affection if we're telling them like 841 00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:38,839 Speaker 1: you don't exist as an ethnicity and that there isn't 842 00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:40,960 Speaker 1: a Ukrainian language, that it's fake. Of course they're not 843 00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:42,239 Speaker 1: going to love us. Of course they're not going to 844 00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:45,040 Speaker 1: greet us with flowers and open arms. Because I think 845 00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:47,239 Speaker 1: that's been That was one of the things that was 846 00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:49,640 Speaker 1: sold to the public of like, oh, these Ukrainians are 847 00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:52,399 Speaker 1: looking to be liberated from the Nazis, right, they they're 848 00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:54,960 Speaker 1: hoping that we come in and save them and rescue them. 849 00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:57,799 Speaker 1: And then when the Ukrainians are like, no, we're going 850 00:42:57,880 --> 00:43:00,800 Speaker 1: to kill you bastards. That a bit of a shock 851 00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:02,680 Speaker 1: to the public who had been sold a very different 852 00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:04,880 Speaker 1: bill of goods. Yeah. And then in a very ominous 853 00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:08,160 Speaker 1: statement from the Kremlin spokesperson overnight, let me just read 854 00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:10,000 Speaker 1: it because we didn't have time for the element quote, 855 00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:13,920 Speaker 1: Russians support the president as long as the critical points 856 00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:17,120 Speaker 1: of view remain within the boundaries of the current law. 857 00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:21,200 Speaker 1: This is pluralism, but the line is extremely thin. You 858 00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:25,800 Speaker 1: have to be very careful. Yes, that's so. That's Russian 859 00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:28,920 Speaker 1: for watch out, Yeah, watch your back, Yeah, and just 860 00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:32,640 Speaker 1: be case away from hospital windows. Yeah. Absolutely. So I 861 00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:35,760 Speaker 1: just think that this does show you that the debate 862 00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:38,279 Speaker 1: is happening at a micro level. I mean, what we 863 00:43:38,320 --> 00:43:40,319 Speaker 1: always saw during the Soviet Union and what people would 864 00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:41,960 Speaker 1: talk about is that, of course it didn't exist at 865 00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:44,799 Speaker 1: the national but people would whisper, people would talk not 866 00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:46,880 Speaker 1: even Moscow, in the villages. But you know, part of 867 00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:49,600 Speaker 1: the problem Also is that a lot of these villages 868 00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:53,440 Speaker 1: and settlements and elsewhere outside of the major urban areas, 869 00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:56,759 Speaker 1: they only have access to state controlled media. So I'm 870 00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:59,239 Speaker 1: always a bit of a cynic with Russian society, even 871 00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:01,320 Speaker 1: their biggest One of the things their biggest critics always 872 00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:04,200 Speaker 1: emphasize is that even dissent in Russia is all controlled. 873 00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:07,560 Speaker 1: It's all part of the plan at the national level. 874 00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:10,160 Speaker 1: So maybe this is all a campaign to pry and 875 00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:14,239 Speaker 1: press like a fake press on Putin to mobilize morph side. 876 00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:16,600 Speaker 1: So he's like, okay, fine, and gives in to that 877 00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:19,920 Speaker 1: without without really, you know, entertaining any of the more 878 00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:23,680 Speaker 1: dubbish elements of society. Again, I'm just being cynical. It's 879 00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:25,839 Speaker 1: very possible that's what's happening. Yeah, it could be organic too, 880 00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:27,960 Speaker 1: I don't know, could be, could be. Although I think 881 00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:30,319 Speaker 1: sometimes we give Putin too much credit as like this 882 00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:34,160 Speaker 1: brilliant puppet master, master strategist, whatever, who has everything under 883 00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:35,960 Speaker 1: control and has a plan for everything. I mean, I 884 00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:39,880 Speaker 1: think part of why they ended up with these massive 885 00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:44,439 Speaker 1: unexpected losses and that Putin launched this campaign in such 886 00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:47,799 Speaker 1: an incredibly foolish way. Now that we see how it's 887 00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:50,239 Speaker 1: played out, is because like he's probably being lied to 888 00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:53,480 Speaker 1: by the generals about the fitness of their troops and 889 00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:56,200 Speaker 1: their readiness and their supply lines and what they were 890 00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:59,680 Speaker 1: capable of doing, because ultimately, you know, he's a strong 891 00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:01,759 Speaker 1: manly he wants to have people around him are just 892 00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:03,720 Speaker 1: going to tell him, yes, everything's great, and of course 893 00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:06,680 Speaker 1: and you're brilliant, and that's what we should do. So 894 00:45:06,680 --> 00:45:09,720 Speaker 1: so anyway, I think you know, he was given probably 895 00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:12,759 Speaker 1: he probably didn't have an accurate understanding of how poor 896 00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:16,920 Speaker 1: they were likely to perform or how well prepared the 897 00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:19,200 Speaker 1: Ukrainians ultimately were. I mean, in fairness, we can't really 898 00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:21,360 Speaker 1: blame them because a lot of Western military analysts got 899 00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:23,600 Speaker 1: all of that wrong. Yeah, oh, exactly. The last thing 900 00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:25,919 Speaker 1: I want to say on this before we uh move 901 00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:28,799 Speaker 1: on to what's happening here domestically with a potential gay 902 00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:32,400 Speaker 1: marriage vote is the reporting is the Biden administration is 903 00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:37,400 Speaker 1: actually fairly skeptical that Ukraine would be able to achieve 904 00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:40,239 Speaker 1: a full on victory for Russia. And I do think 905 00:45:40,239 --> 00:45:43,080 Speaker 1: it's important to remember as we you know, look at 906 00:45:43,080 --> 00:45:46,040 Speaker 1: this counter offensive and what incredible victory it is. I mean, 907 00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:48,600 Speaker 1: now they think they've retaken land mass. I saw, it's 908 00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:50,160 Speaker 1: like the size of like half of the New York 909 00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:53,040 Speaker 1: metro areas. That's a sizable you know, the sizable not 910 00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:56,440 Speaker 1: nothing region is definitely not nothing. But also keep in 911 00:45:56,440 --> 00:45:59,759 Speaker 1: mind that this counter offensive was specifically designed in a 912 00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:03,680 Speaker 1: way US audience. I mean, this was really specifically designed 913 00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:06,520 Speaker 1: to boost domestic morale, but to make the case to 914 00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:10,719 Speaker 1: European nations who are facing a very difficult winter in 915 00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:14,120 Speaker 1: part because of the ongoing war, and the Americans who 916 00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:17,400 Speaker 1: have been, you know, the almost the sole supplier of 917 00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:19,920 Speaker 1: weapons to Ukraine, that it was worth the cost, that 918 00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:21,440 Speaker 1: it was worth the effort, that it was worth the 919 00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:25,000 Speaker 1: pain for their domestic populace. So as you're reading these accounts, 920 00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:27,239 Speaker 1: it's just important to keep in mind that in some 921 00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:31,760 Speaker 1: ways this counter offensive was designed to market the Ukrainian 922 00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:36,279 Speaker 1: cause to the US audience. It doesn't necessarily mean that 923 00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:38,960 Speaker 1: they're going to be able to continue to achieve these 924 00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:41,480 Speaker 1: sorts of gains, And as I said, the Biden administration 925 00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:45,160 Speaker 1: is actually skeptical that they will be able to continue 926 00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:48,400 Speaker 1: in this fashion indefinitely and actually retake all of the 927 00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:52,799 Speaker 1: territory that Russia has claimed, and even more skeptical of 928 00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:55,000 Speaker 1: the idea that they could push Russia back, you know, say, 929 00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:58,120 Speaker 1: out of Crimean, out of the eastern part of Ukraine. 930 00:46:58,200 --> 00:47:01,680 Speaker 1: You know that they had seized before February twenty four, 931 00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:04,520 Speaker 1: So in any case, I just wanted to put that 932 00:47:04,560 --> 00:47:07,319 Speaker 1: out there as a caveat to temper expectations. To keep 933 00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:10,200 Speaker 1: in mind as you're reading these accounts, and even as 934 00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:12,840 Speaker 1: we acknowledge like this is a huge mass of victory, 935 00:47:13,120 --> 00:47:16,520 Speaker 1: very very critical for Ukraine coming at this point in time, right, 936 00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:19,160 Speaker 1: you know, it's always important to have a very heavy 937 00:47:19,160 --> 00:47:22,120 Speaker 1: dose of realism when you're discussing these things. Yes, indeed, 938 00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:28,640 Speaker 1: let's talk about gay marriage. So you probably will remember 939 00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:33,000 Speaker 1: that in the Dobbs decision, Justice Thomas issued his own 940 00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:35,920 Speaker 1: concurrence that said, hey, not only do I think we 941 00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:38,400 Speaker 1: should overturn Roe versus Wade, I think there are some 942 00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:41,880 Speaker 1: other decisions that we should overturn as well. In particular, 943 00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:44,080 Speaker 1: one of the things he named checked was a Bergafel, 944 00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:47,319 Speaker 1: that is, the Supreme Court decision creating a right for 945 00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:50,319 Speaker 1: gay couples to get married. So that has led to 946 00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:52,759 Speaker 1: a lot of strategizing on the Democratic side and a 947 00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:54,520 Speaker 1: lot of angst about Okay, well, where could this be 948 00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:56,560 Speaker 1: going and where would the Supreme Court stop? And you 949 00:47:56,600 --> 00:47:58,960 Speaker 1: know he's floating this very clearly, So this is something 950 00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:02,520 Speaker 1: that we need to shore up. So the Senate Democrats 951 00:48:02,520 --> 00:48:05,279 Speaker 1: in particular have been working to try to get enough 952 00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:09,440 Speaker 1: Republicans on board to actually codify gay marriage at the 953 00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:13,359 Speaker 1: federal level. And I do want to say it would 954 00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:17,040 Speaker 1: be very easy for Democrats to sort of like intentionally 955 00:48:17,080 --> 00:48:19,960 Speaker 1: tank this vote and put in some poison pills with 956 00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:21,759 Speaker 1: regards to religious liberty that they know would be a 957 00:48:21,800 --> 00:48:26,160 Speaker 1: no go for Republican folks and to sort of engineer 958 00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:29,359 Speaker 1: its failure. They don't seem to be doing that. They 959 00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:32,440 Speaker 1: seem to be earnestly trying to gather enough support and 960 00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:35,480 Speaker 1: respond to the concerns of Republican legislators in order to 961 00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:38,000 Speaker 1: actually codify gay marriage at the federal level, which I 962 00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:39,759 Speaker 1: think is interesting. So let's go ahead and put this 963 00:48:39,840 --> 00:48:43,160 Speaker 1: first piece up on the screen. This tweet says talks 964 00:48:43,200 --> 00:48:45,960 Speaker 1: designed to win enough Senate GOP support to clear legislation 965 00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:49,160 Speaker 1: protecting same sex marriage rights are making headway. It appears 966 00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:51,960 Speaker 1: likely that at least ten Republicans will help move it 967 00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:54,360 Speaker 1: through the chamber Later this month. That is according to 968 00:48:54,440 --> 00:48:58,160 Speaker 1: Republican Tom Tillis, who has been sort of spearheading the 969 00:48:58,200 --> 00:49:01,560 Speaker 1: efforts on the Republican side to try to gather ten 970 00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:05,320 Speaker 1: votes in order to overcome the filibuster and codify gay marriage. 971 00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:08,239 Speaker 1: Still unclear exactly when such a bill would come to 972 00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:11,120 Speaker 1: the floor. They the last thing I read said that 973 00:49:11,440 --> 00:49:13,680 Speaker 1: this is a critical week. They're continuing to work to 974 00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:16,680 Speaker 1: win over enough GOP senators. This is in the Washington Post. 975 00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:19,759 Speaker 1: You also had their efforts bolstered by a letter which 976 00:49:19,840 --> 00:49:23,120 Speaker 1: was signed by more than four hundred former and current 977 00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:25,920 Speaker 1: GOP officials. And it's not just resistance types. You did 978 00:49:25,920 --> 00:49:28,279 Speaker 1: have some sort of like trumpeline figures who were on 979 00:49:28,680 --> 00:49:32,279 Speaker 1: that letter. You also had doctor Oz in Pennsylvania who's 980 00:49:32,320 --> 00:49:34,560 Speaker 1: running right now, who sees this is a good issue 981 00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:36,680 Speaker 1: for him to plan his flag on here a little 982 00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:39,640 Speaker 1: bit to try to yield to the general electorate. It's 983 00:49:39,719 --> 00:49:42,759 Speaker 1: also really not clear, so not exactly clear when the 984 00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:44,319 Speaker 1: vote will come, but it looks like in the next 985 00:49:44,360 --> 00:49:47,439 Speaker 1: week or so. It's also not exactly clear who those 986 00:49:47,520 --> 00:49:51,680 Speaker 1: ten GOP votes will be, and those who are involved 987 00:49:51,760 --> 00:49:54,279 Speaker 1: in trying to wrangle the votes are not even saying 988 00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:57,320 Speaker 1: that they've got a firm commitment from ten GOP senators. 989 00:49:57,360 --> 00:49:59,799 Speaker 1: They're just saying they think that they can get there. 990 00:50:00,200 --> 00:50:03,160 Speaker 1: So one of the people who had previously seemed to 991 00:50:03,200 --> 00:50:06,760 Speaker 1: indicate that he was on board is now walking back 992 00:50:06,840 --> 00:50:10,720 Speaker 1: some of that support, at least rhetorically. Senator Ron Johnson 993 00:50:10,840 --> 00:50:12,880 Speaker 1: in Wisconsin, let's go and put this up on the screen. 994 00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:15,320 Speaker 1: This is for a more perfect union. They have audio 995 00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:18,120 Speaker 1: here of Ron Johnson saying he will not support the 996 00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:20,840 Speaker 1: same sex marriage bill. He says, I'm not happy with 997 00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:24,360 Speaker 1: the Baldwins, referencing Tammy Baldwin of the world opening that wound. 998 00:50:24,640 --> 00:50:26,719 Speaker 1: Tammy Baldwin, they point out, as the first openly gay 999 00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:29,719 Speaker 1: person elected to the US Senate. If you listen to 1000 00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:31,920 Speaker 1: the audio here, though, Soger, it's not as cut and 1001 00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:34,960 Speaker 1: dry as him saying like, no, absolutely no, I'm not 1002 00:50:35,000 --> 00:50:38,400 Speaker 1: going to support it. He says, as it stands now, 1003 00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:42,719 Speaker 1: he wouldn't. He has some religious freedom objections that he 1004 00:50:42,800 --> 00:50:45,759 Speaker 1: wants to be reflected in the bill. So, and Ron 1005 00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:48,400 Speaker 1: Johnson obviously running in Wisconsin, a swing state, He's up 1006 00:50:48,440 --> 00:50:50,719 Speaker 1: for reelection this year. That's part of why people thought 1007 00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:54,480 Speaker 1: he might be on board with this vote. Previously, and 1008 00:50:54,520 --> 00:50:57,719 Speaker 1: he had indicated that he was, so it's still possible 1009 00:50:57,719 --> 00:50:59,760 Speaker 1: that he could end up coming around if they address 1010 00:50:59,800 --> 00:51:01,920 Speaker 1: him his concern. He said that. He said, quote, he 1011 00:51:02,000 --> 00:51:04,080 Speaker 1: is working with other This is from a spokesperson. He's 1012 00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:06,080 Speaker 1: working with other senators on an amendment to try and 1013 00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:09,200 Speaker 1: remedy these concerns. The bill isn't exept blah blah blah. 1014 00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:11,560 Speaker 1: But the reason why I think that's important is they 1015 00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:14,799 Speaker 1: won't say no. Like almost nobody except for very few 1016 00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:18,640 Speaker 1: senators are against actually voting for the bill. They're all 1017 00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:21,279 Speaker 1: saying there's a religious liberty concern. You know, I tried 1018 00:51:21,280 --> 00:51:22,879 Speaker 1: to look into it. I've actually been able to find 1019 00:51:23,080 --> 00:51:28,080 Speaker 1: the exact concern. Well, a lot of them don't really 1020 00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:32,440 Speaker 1: so like Marco Rubio for example, Ted Cruz as another example. 1021 00:51:32,760 --> 00:51:35,240 Speaker 1: Some of these guys they say, oh, this is a distraction, 1022 00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:36,960 Speaker 1: we don't really need this, so I'm going to vote no. 1023 00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:40,120 Speaker 1: It's like, well, this is a distraction, but you support 1024 00:51:40,160 --> 00:51:41,839 Speaker 1: it just like freaking vote. You vote on all kinds 1025 00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:43,600 Speaker 1: of bullshit all the time, Like just vote yes and 1026 00:51:43,640 --> 00:51:47,320 Speaker 1: move on. But so they're trying to use this argument, 1027 00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:50,239 Speaker 1: which is what Ron Johnson also brings up here like, oh, 1028 00:51:50,280 --> 00:51:52,120 Speaker 1: this is over the top. We don't really need it. 1029 00:51:52,120 --> 00:51:54,200 Speaker 1: It's not really necessary. I can't really imagine the Supreme 1030 00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:56,840 Speaker 1: Court actually rolling back these rights. But you know, you 1031 00:51:56,840 --> 00:52:00,839 Speaker 1: can understand, especially if you are a married couple looking 1032 00:52:00,880 --> 00:52:02,680 Speaker 1: at the words of Justice Thomas and saying, you know, 1033 00:52:02,760 --> 00:52:04,560 Speaker 1: I kind of like to have that added protection in 1034 00:52:04,600 --> 00:52:07,239 Speaker 1: there of a federal legislation saying no, no, this is 1035 00:52:07,239 --> 00:52:08,480 Speaker 1: the law of the land and it's not going to 1036 00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:10,400 Speaker 1: be ruled back. Well politics wise, of course, is a 1037 00:52:10,480 --> 00:52:12,640 Speaker 1: very smart tactic by Schumer and by others in order 1038 00:52:12,640 --> 00:52:13,960 Speaker 1: to actually force it to the floor. It's one of 1039 00:52:14,000 --> 00:52:15,640 Speaker 1: the things I've been talking about with yeah that I 1040 00:52:15,640 --> 00:52:18,040 Speaker 1: mean actually, you know on abortion too, it's like, okay, 1041 00:52:18,120 --> 00:52:20,080 Speaker 1: you know you may not get row. Put fifteen weeks 1042 00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:22,120 Speaker 1: on the floor right now, Make people vote against it. 1043 00:52:22,239 --> 00:52:24,359 Speaker 1: Put them in the Blake Master's position and be like, well, 1044 00:52:24,600 --> 00:52:27,319 Speaker 1: actually a support fifteen weeks is like do you vote 1045 00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:28,759 Speaker 1: for it? Are you actually going to vote for it? 1046 00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:31,759 Speaker 1: Because this is it's a very very smart take. You 1047 00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:34,480 Speaker 1: take positions which are fifty to fifty in the way 1048 00:52:34,520 --> 00:52:37,319 Speaker 1: that they're generally described, move them into seventy five eighty 1049 00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:39,279 Speaker 1: percent territory and then just say, all right, do you 1050 00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:41,279 Speaker 1: actually oppose this thing? Get on the record. What do 1051 00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:43,520 Speaker 1: you think. I mean. Look, it's a smart, very very 1052 00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:46,600 Speaker 1: smart political strategy, and that's part of the reason Johnson 1053 00:52:46,640 --> 00:52:48,560 Speaker 1: and others are like wriggling and saying, oh, well, I'm 1054 00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:51,319 Speaker 1: gonna vote against it on this particular one. But you know, 1055 00:52:51,520 --> 00:52:53,600 Speaker 1: look at Ted Cruz, let's put this up there. Here's 1056 00:52:53,640 --> 00:52:56,880 Speaker 1: what one evangelical leader tweeted, and a Cruise agreed with. 1057 00:52:56,920 --> 00:53:00,000 Speaker 1: You said quote, No matter how GOP Senate spins it 1058 00:53:00,040 --> 00:53:02,600 Speaker 1: tale of their yes vote for the disrespect Marriajact, It's 1059 00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:05,080 Speaker 1: passage will threaten religious liberty for generations, and their yes 1060 00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:07,600 Speaker 1: vote will be a complete portrayal of a party platform 1061 00:53:07,640 --> 00:53:10,520 Speaker 1: and their base now on the party platform thing. From 1062 00:53:10,560 --> 00:53:13,719 Speaker 1: what I can tell, if we will recall Trump and 1063 00:53:13,960 --> 00:53:20,200 Speaker 1: the MAGA, GOP basically declared peace on gay marriage. Trump himself, 1064 00:53:20,280 --> 00:53:23,920 Speaker 1: i believe, is the first openly pro gay rights president 1065 00:53:24,160 --> 00:53:26,719 Speaker 1: to be elected, which a lot of people don't like 1066 00:53:26,800 --> 00:53:30,880 Speaker 1: to discuss. Which with Ted it's interesting because he is 1067 00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:35,560 Speaker 1: very much sounding the evangelical critique of Obergo felt back 1068 00:53:35,600 --> 00:53:38,239 Speaker 1: in twenty fifteen. It makes sense for him from a 1069 00:53:38,280 --> 00:53:41,279 Speaker 1: political positioning perspective that's always been like his base, the 1070 00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:45,399 Speaker 1: true conservative people you know in Washington and constituencies, people 1071 00:53:45,400 --> 00:53:47,920 Speaker 1: who voted for him in Iowa and elsewhere. But for 1072 00:53:48,040 --> 00:53:52,240 Speaker 1: other leaders. I mean, look at how battleground Republican doctor Oz. 1073 00:53:52,400 --> 00:53:55,760 Speaker 1: Let's put this up there, Doctor Oz coming out very strong, 1074 00:53:55,800 --> 00:53:59,360 Speaker 1: saying I'm proud to join this effort with fellow Republicans 1075 00:53:59,360 --> 00:54:01,759 Speaker 1: I believe saying sex couples should have this freedom to 1076 00:54:01,760 --> 00:54:04,359 Speaker 1: get married as straight couples. This is I mean, look, 1077 00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:09,080 Speaker 1: this is the you know, battleground senate candidate. I haven't 1078 00:54:09,080 --> 00:54:10,799 Speaker 1: heard yet. I don't know if Jade Vance has been 1079 00:54:10,800 --> 00:54:12,480 Speaker 1: asked about it. I'd be curious to hear. Yeah, I 1080 00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:14,000 Speaker 1: wonder what he will say. That's going to be a 1081 00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:16,200 Speaker 1: tough vine year. Probably dodge it. If I had to guess, 1082 00:54:16,239 --> 00:54:17,920 Speaker 1: you'd probably dodge. I bet he does the thing that 1083 00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:19,560 Speaker 1: Ruby is to have like, oh, this is a waste 1084 00:54:19,560 --> 00:54:22,280 Speaker 1: of time that'll need to do this Probably a smart 1085 00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:23,680 Speaker 1: movee in order to go with if you don't want 1086 00:54:23,680 --> 00:54:25,320 Speaker 1: to fall on either wee well, because I mean, the 1087 00:54:25,600 --> 00:54:29,319 Speaker 1: reason the thing that Ted Cruz retweeted was important is 1088 00:54:29,360 --> 00:54:32,520 Speaker 1: this wasn't just any activists. This is Bob Vanderplatz, who's 1089 00:54:32,520 --> 00:54:34,520 Speaker 1: the president CEO of the Family what is it called 1090 00:54:34,560 --> 00:54:38,040 Speaker 1: the Family Leader counsel or one of those. Yeah, So anyway, 1091 00:54:38,280 --> 00:54:42,359 Speaker 1: very influential group, and it shows you that first of all, 1092 00:54:42,360 --> 00:54:44,920 Speaker 1: there's a real generational divide within the Republican Party on 1093 00:54:45,000 --> 00:54:50,640 Speaker 1: these issues, and that older core evangelical base they are 1094 00:54:50,920 --> 00:54:53,479 Speaker 1: they never moved on from the city. They're still very 1095 00:54:53,520 --> 00:54:57,080 Speaker 1: committed to, you know, marriages between a man and a woman, 1096 00:54:57,160 --> 00:55:01,600 Speaker 1: and very opposed to the Supreme Court decision. So Republicans 1097 00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:04,560 Speaker 1: have mostly just wanted to not talk about it because 1098 00:55:04,600 --> 00:55:06,600 Speaker 1: they know that they're in a difficult position here. They 1099 00:55:06,640 --> 00:55:10,800 Speaker 1: know that a very energized core part of their base 1100 00:55:11,000 --> 00:55:15,000 Speaker 1: is very adamantly opposed to same sex marriage, and they're 1101 00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:16,960 Speaker 1: well organized on it, and these are the types of 1102 00:55:16,960 --> 00:55:21,200 Speaker 1: people who can be incredibly influential in Republican primaries. But 1103 00:55:21,239 --> 00:55:24,160 Speaker 1: at the same time, they know overall the population is 1104 00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:27,360 Speaker 1: overwhelmingly in favor of same sex marriage at this point, 1105 00:55:27,480 --> 00:55:30,440 Speaker 1: and so they know that this has been a difficult 1106 00:55:30,480 --> 00:55:33,040 Speaker 1: place for them and have been happy, honestly for the 1107 00:55:33,080 --> 00:55:35,040 Speaker 1: Supreme Court to have taken it off to the table 1108 00:55:35,360 --> 00:55:37,000 Speaker 1: so that they could just sort of move on from 1109 00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:41,200 Speaker 1: the conversation where they are at odds overwhelmingly with mass 1110 00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:44,080 Speaker 1: public opinions. So you know, the search for the ten 1111 00:55:44,160 --> 00:55:46,680 Speaker 1: votes continues. I if I had to guess, I would 1112 00:55:46,680 --> 00:55:49,359 Speaker 1: say that they will ultimately be able to find ten 1113 00:55:49,400 --> 00:55:53,799 Speaker 1: Republicans on board. Ten Republican Senator Carolina. Yeah, it's another 1114 00:55:53,840 --> 00:55:55,640 Speaker 1: I mean in North Carolinas, the swing state as well. 1115 00:55:55,680 --> 00:55:58,759 Speaker 1: And he's in a tight race too. He's you know, 1116 00:55:58,800 --> 00:56:01,759 Speaker 1: he's in a tight contest for reelection, so he's calculating 1117 00:56:01,800 --> 00:56:04,279 Speaker 1: that in his state, being on board with this and 1118 00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:05,920 Speaker 1: not just being on board but kind of leading the 1119 00:56:06,000 --> 00:56:09,560 Speaker 1: charge is smart and beneficial. But you know, even in 1120 00:56:09,600 --> 00:56:12,000 Speaker 1: a state like Texas, Ted Cruz is clearly making a 1121 00:56:12,160 --> 00:56:15,000 Speaker 1: very different calculation. And I think Texas probably a more 1122 00:56:15,120 --> 00:56:18,879 Speaker 1: religious state in North Carolina at this point. No way, 1123 00:56:18,880 --> 00:56:20,400 Speaker 1: he won't pay a price for it. Again, you know, 1124 00:56:20,440 --> 00:56:23,120 Speaker 1: his political positioning is to hold down his core constituency. 1125 00:56:23,160 --> 00:56:25,759 Speaker 1: That's Evangelicals. They've always worre with Ted Cruz. They're kind 1126 00:56:25,760 --> 00:56:27,640 Speaker 1: of the people that came over to Trump last. In 1127 00:56:27,680 --> 00:56:30,799 Speaker 1: the GOP coalition, it's the Doctor Oz is, the Tom 1128 00:56:30,840 --> 00:56:33,040 Speaker 1: Tillis is, the Ron Johnson's of the World. Those are 1129 00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:35,480 Speaker 1: the people you got to watch very very carefully. Yeah. Well, 1130 00:56:35,520 --> 00:56:39,560 Speaker 1: and ultimately this is an effort. I mean, I think, 1131 00:56:39,880 --> 00:56:41,760 Speaker 1: first of all, it is a genuine effort to codify 1132 00:56:41,880 --> 00:56:43,719 Speaker 1: this at the federal level, because, as I said, if 1133 00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:45,719 Speaker 1: they wanted to tank this with Republicans, they could do 1134 00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:47,600 Speaker 1: it very easily and be able to have the talking 1135 00:56:47,640 --> 00:56:51,160 Speaker 1: point of like the whole Republican Party voted against gay marriage. 1136 00:56:51,280 --> 00:56:54,320 Speaker 1: So there is a genuine effort to actually get this codified, 1137 00:56:54,360 --> 00:56:56,520 Speaker 1: and that's a good thing, and it's really positive on 1138 00:56:56,640 --> 00:57:00,840 Speaker 1: political messaging front. This is part of the very clear 1139 00:57:00,920 --> 00:57:04,480 Speaker 1: democratic strategy which is pretty effective right now of painting 1140 00:57:04,520 --> 00:57:08,560 Speaker 1: the Republican Party as extreme, as extreme on elections and 1141 00:57:08,600 --> 00:57:13,200 Speaker 1: wanting to overturn legitimate election results as extreme, certainly on abortion. 1142 00:57:13,320 --> 00:57:15,480 Speaker 1: That's the place where they're making the case the strongest, 1143 00:57:15,760 --> 00:57:18,040 Speaker 1: and this is another piece of that puzzle and why 1144 00:57:18,040 --> 00:57:20,000 Speaker 1: they see this as an important vote to get on 1145 00:57:20,040 --> 00:57:21,959 Speaker 1: the record right now. Yeah, I think that's right. Okay, 1146 00:57:22,040 --> 00:57:25,280 Speaker 1: let's move on to Trump. So so more in the 1147 00:57:25,320 --> 00:57:29,200 Speaker 1: saga of the subpoenas, the investigations, what exactly these even 1148 00:57:29,240 --> 00:57:31,360 Speaker 1: concern We still don't really know, let's put this up 1149 00:57:31,400 --> 00:57:35,400 Speaker 1: there on the screen. The Justice Department has issued forty 1150 00:57:35,480 --> 00:57:39,760 Speaker 1: subpoenas in the last week. This is on the January 1151 00:57:39,800 --> 00:57:42,560 Speaker 1: sixth inquiry. So if we're keeping track more decrees, we've 1152 00:57:42,600 --> 00:57:48,040 Speaker 1: got the super Pac investigation, we've got the January sixth investigation, 1153 00:57:48,600 --> 00:57:52,400 Speaker 1: and we have the classified documents. One. Now, we haven't 1154 00:57:52,440 --> 00:57:54,920 Speaker 1: had any real developments on that front. There's some special 1155 00:57:54,960 --> 00:57:57,440 Speaker 1: master wrangling will bring you anything important if it does 1156 00:57:57,560 --> 00:58:00,560 Speaker 1: rise to that level. But these all actually come to 1157 00:58:00,680 --> 00:58:03,920 Speaker 1: even the level of seizing the phones of two trop 1158 00:58:03,960 --> 00:58:08,520 Speaker 1: Trump advisors and escalating investigation again also ahead of the 1159 00:58:08,520 --> 00:58:12,080 Speaker 1: midterm elections, and these appear to involve what happened on 1160 00:58:12,160 --> 00:58:14,240 Speaker 1: January sixth. It's kind of interesting because this is probably 1161 00:58:14,240 --> 00:58:16,880 Speaker 1: the least noticed investigation. Let's get into it a little bit, 1162 00:58:16,920 --> 00:58:20,440 Speaker 1: which is that a criminal investigation is into the action 1163 00:58:20,640 --> 00:58:24,520 Speaker 1: specifically which led to the riot at the Capitol on 1164 00:58:24,600 --> 00:58:27,640 Speaker 1: January sixth. The investigation quote has come into focus in 1165 00:58:27,680 --> 00:58:30,360 Speaker 1: recent days, even though it's been more overshadows by the 1166 00:58:30,360 --> 00:58:34,479 Speaker 1: current classified documents. One federal agents with court authorized search 1167 00:58:34,560 --> 00:58:37,920 Speaker 1: warns took the phones from two people. Boris Epstein, who 1168 00:58:37,960 --> 00:58:40,800 Speaker 1: was an in house councilor who helped coordinate mister Trump's 1169 00:58:40,840 --> 00:58:43,680 Speaker 1: legal efforts, and Mike Roman, who was a campaign strategist 1170 00:58:43,880 --> 00:58:47,040 Speaker 1: director of election day operations for the Trump campaign. Both 1171 00:58:47,080 --> 00:58:50,640 Speaker 1: Epstein and Roman were linked to a quote critical element 1172 00:58:50,720 --> 00:58:54,560 Speaker 1: of Trump's bid to hold onto power and specifically for 1173 00:58:54,640 --> 00:58:58,000 Speaker 1: the fake electors scheme to try and appoint different electors 1174 00:58:58,160 --> 00:59:01,200 Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania and in other swing states where they had 1175 00:59:01,240 --> 00:59:04,360 Speaker 1: claimed the quote vote was rigged. So it's interesting here. 1176 00:59:04,680 --> 00:59:07,960 Speaker 1: What they're really saying is that the subpoenas rose to 1177 00:59:08,000 --> 00:59:11,200 Speaker 1: the level of outright seizing phones in two cases, but 1178 00:59:11,720 --> 00:59:15,160 Speaker 1: many other subpoenas to quote quote unquote Trump allies and 1179 00:59:15,280 --> 00:59:18,360 Speaker 1: other activists who were involved in the entire stop to 1180 00:59:18,400 --> 00:59:23,680 Speaker 1: steal effort, who could face some serious criminal liability, not 1181 00:59:23,760 --> 00:59:28,360 Speaker 1: even necessarily on the investigation of like the riot of 1182 00:59:28,400 --> 00:59:31,040 Speaker 1: the Capitol. But it looks like the fake elector scheme 1183 00:59:31,200 --> 00:59:33,680 Speaker 1: is what they're zeroing in on, because that's what Georgia 1184 00:59:33,800 --> 00:59:36,320 Speaker 1: is also looking at. Where I don't really know what 1185 00:59:36,400 --> 00:59:38,040 Speaker 1: level that would rise of Crystal. Would it just be 1186 00:59:38,080 --> 00:59:41,360 Speaker 1: defrauding the government or like conspiracy to what does it 1187 00:59:41,440 --> 00:59:44,200 Speaker 1: stop a government proceeding? I think that's the I think 1188 00:59:44,280 --> 00:59:46,640 Speaker 1: that's the charge that would make the most sense. I 1189 00:59:46,640 --> 00:59:50,520 Speaker 1: think that's probably correct. I think for seditious conspiracy, you 1190 00:59:50,600 --> 00:59:55,120 Speaker 1: need like plans to you know, commit violent acts. And 1191 00:59:55,200 --> 00:59:59,200 Speaker 1: so it does seem like the from the reporting, the 1192 00:59:59,240 --> 01:00:03,520 Speaker 1: Fake Electors investigation in DC and also the grand jury 1193 01:00:03,560 --> 01:00:06,120 Speaker 1: that's in panel down in Fulton County, Georgia are the 1194 01:00:06,200 --> 01:00:08,920 Speaker 1: two that are kind of the furthest along. But they 1195 01:00:09,040 --> 01:00:13,400 Speaker 1: also the questions about his fundraising that we talked to 1196 01:00:13,440 --> 01:00:16,160 Speaker 1: you about yesterday, the Save America pack that was started 1197 01:00:16,240 --> 01:00:18,360 Speaker 1: right after election Day, and of course they raised like 1198 01:00:18,360 --> 01:00:20,400 Speaker 1: one hundreds of millions of dollars, We're going to stop 1199 01:00:20,400 --> 01:00:22,280 Speaker 1: this deal whatever, and then they like, you know, just 1200 01:00:22,320 --> 01:00:24,680 Speaker 1: like gave it to their consultant friends and actually didn't 1201 01:00:24,720 --> 01:00:26,640 Speaker 1: spend that much of it and now repubably cause they're 1202 01:00:26,640 --> 01:00:28,320 Speaker 1: begging Trump to pony some of that over to their 1203 01:00:28,320 --> 01:00:32,920 Speaker 1: struggling Senate candidates. But that investigation is tied in with 1204 01:00:33,040 --> 01:00:36,280 Speaker 1: the other January sixth investigations that are going on here 1205 01:00:36,320 --> 01:00:41,320 Speaker 1: in DC. So these subpoenas could be related also to 1206 01:00:41,880 --> 01:00:44,480 Speaker 1: that fundraising. They say some of the latest in FicT 1207 01:00:44,520 --> 01:00:45,959 Speaker 1: The New York Times does say some of the latest 1208 01:00:45,960 --> 01:00:48,960 Speaker 1: subpoenas focus on the activities of the Save America Political 1209 01:00:49,000 --> 01:00:51,959 Speaker 1: Action Committee, the main political fundraising conduit for mister Trump 1210 01:00:52,000 --> 01:00:56,280 Speaker 1: since he left office. One thing that was interesting about 1211 01:00:56,280 --> 01:00:59,000 Speaker 1: this is last week it kind of caught our attention 1212 01:00:59,360 --> 01:01:02,120 Speaker 1: that Steve was out claiming that, like I think he said, 1213 01:01:02,160 --> 01:01:05,760 Speaker 1: thirty six six Trump people had had their houses rated. 1214 01:01:07,040 --> 01:01:09,040 Speaker 1: This may be what he was referring to, that there 1215 01:01:09,080 --> 01:01:11,280 Speaker 1: was a grain of truth here, not exactly houses rated, 1216 01:01:11,280 --> 01:01:14,760 Speaker 1: but subpoenas issued and some phones at least seized, So 1217 01:01:15,000 --> 01:01:17,640 Speaker 1: there was at least some there there in terms of 1218 01:01:17,640 --> 01:01:20,000 Speaker 1: what he was saying. And it comes at a point 1219 01:01:20,040 --> 01:01:22,720 Speaker 1: where you're just inside I think of that sixty day 1220 01:01:22,760 --> 01:01:27,560 Speaker 1: window where typically the DOJ there, you know, historic tendency 1221 01:01:27,640 --> 01:01:30,880 Speaker 1: is to try to not make any noticeable or public 1222 01:01:30,960 --> 01:01:34,400 Speaker 1: moves in investigations leading into the election. So that was 1223 01:01:34,440 --> 01:01:37,240 Speaker 1: one theory as to why there was such a huge 1224 01:01:37,720 --> 01:01:41,440 Speaker 1: rush with all of these dozens and dozens of subpoenas 1225 01:01:41,480 --> 01:01:43,440 Speaker 1: being issued in this week, is to try to get 1226 01:01:43,480 --> 01:01:47,040 Speaker 1: ahead of that deadline. That's part of the reporting from CNN, 1227 01:01:47,080 --> 01:01:49,480 Speaker 1: who also had some details on this story. Let's go 1228 01:01:49,600 --> 01:01:52,440 Speaker 1: but their tear sheet up on the screen, the way 1229 01:01:52,480 --> 01:01:54,959 Speaker 1: they describe it is their numbers a little bit different. 1230 01:01:54,960 --> 01:01:57,600 Speaker 1: They say more than thirty. I think New York Times said, 1231 01:01:57,680 --> 01:02:03,280 Speaker 1: what close to forty, So we're somewhere in that. Steve Bannon, Yeah, 1232 01:02:03,360 --> 01:02:07,600 Speaker 1: so there you go. CNN's as top officials from Trump's 1233 01:02:07,600 --> 01:02:11,160 Speaker 1: political fundraising and former campaign operation are among dozens of 1234 01:02:11,200 --> 01:02:14,800 Speaker 1: people who received grand jury subpoenas in recent days as 1235 01:02:14,880 --> 01:02:18,400 Speaker 1: the Justice Department intensifies as criminal investigation into January. Six 1236 01:02:18,800 --> 01:02:21,240 Speaker 1: among them are former, so they have a few different 1237 01:02:21,320 --> 01:02:23,600 Speaker 1: names than the New York Times had. They've got former 1238 01:02:23,600 --> 01:02:27,440 Speaker 1: Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien and Sean Doleman, who worked 1239 01:02:27,440 --> 01:02:31,280 Speaker 1: for Trump's twenty twenty presidential campaign as chief financial officer, 1240 01:02:31,360 --> 01:02:35,760 Speaker 1: which is interesting, and they point out this came just 1241 01:02:35,840 --> 01:02:39,960 Speaker 1: before the Justice Department begins its standard pre election quiet period, 1242 01:02:40,000 --> 01:02:43,120 Speaker 1: that's that sixty day period before the midterm elections. They 1243 01:02:43,160 --> 01:02:46,360 Speaker 1: also had some details about the subpoenas both CNN and 1244 01:02:46,360 --> 01:02:48,120 Speaker 1: New York Times that they've gotten their hands on. At 1245 01:02:48,200 --> 01:02:52,040 Speaker 1: least one of these subpoenas, the one that CNN reviewed, 1246 01:02:52,320 --> 01:02:55,959 Speaker 1: said they were broad in scope, seeking information on range 1247 01:02:55,960 --> 01:02:59,840 Speaker 1: of issues, including the fake Elector scheme, Trump's primary fundraising 1248 01:03:00,000 --> 01:03:03,080 Speaker 1: political Vehicle Save America Pack, the organizing of the Trump 1249 01:03:03,160 --> 01:03:06,520 Speaker 1: rally on January sixth, and any communications with a broad 1250 01:03:06,560 --> 01:03:09,200 Speaker 1: list of people who work to overturn the twenty twenty 1251 01:03:09,280 --> 01:03:13,000 Speaker 1: election results. So, I guess my big takeaway with all 1252 01:03:13,040 --> 01:03:18,520 Speaker 1: of this continues to be that they are taking they 1253 01:03:18,520 --> 01:03:22,640 Speaker 1: are very active, they are very aggressive, and it's hard 1254 01:03:22,680 --> 01:03:25,120 Speaker 1: for me to believe at this point that they are 1255 01:03:25,160 --> 01:03:30,000 Speaker 1: going to decline to charge Trump with something in connection 1256 01:03:30,160 --> 01:03:34,240 Speaker 1: with something plus by documents January sixth. I just can't 1257 01:03:34,280 --> 01:03:37,080 Speaker 1: imagine that the government would be taking this type of 1258 01:03:37,640 --> 01:03:43,280 Speaker 1: publicly visible, you know, very clear investigatory activities with all 1259 01:03:43,320 --> 01:03:46,040 Speaker 1: of these grand juries impaneled, if they weren't planning on 1260 01:03:46,160 --> 01:03:48,600 Speaker 1: ultimately doing something. Yeah, I agree, I don't think there's 1261 01:03:48,600 --> 01:03:51,320 Speaker 1: any There's just no way that it wouldn't that it 1262 01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:53,960 Speaker 1: wouldn't work this way, because it's like a war on 1263 01:03:54,080 --> 01:03:58,000 Speaker 1: literally all fronts, you know, from the document's case to 1264 01:03:58,160 --> 01:04:01,600 Speaker 1: this one, to the subpoena or sorry, to the super pack, 1265 01:04:01,960 --> 01:04:05,320 Speaker 1: to Georgia. Now you've you know, seizing people's phones. Look, 1266 01:04:05,360 --> 01:04:07,320 Speaker 1: I mean, it's possible that it all comes out to nothing, 1267 01:04:07,360 --> 01:04:09,720 Speaker 1: but at the very least somebody around him at the 1268 01:04:09,800 --> 01:04:12,680 Speaker 1: very very highest level is the is getting charged. Oh 1269 01:04:12,720 --> 01:04:15,240 Speaker 1: a lot of the Yeah, listen, a lot of these 1270 01:04:15,280 --> 01:04:18,120 Speaker 1: people are gonna right, well, they getting some serious legal 1271 01:04:18,560 --> 01:04:20,280 Speaker 1: to go to jail. I don't know, but yeah, it 1272 01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:23,320 Speaker 1: still sucks to get prosecuted, and that looks very likely 1273 01:04:23,320 --> 01:04:25,240 Speaker 1: if you're one of these folks. Yeah, they don't have 1274 01:04:25,360 --> 01:04:28,640 Speaker 1: the deference that Trump has been afforded and will continue 1275 01:04:28,680 --> 01:04:31,320 Speaker 1: to be afforded as a former president. They don't get 1276 01:04:31,360 --> 01:04:34,840 Speaker 1: that like elite circle protection. So a lot of people 1277 01:04:35,720 --> 01:04:38,560 Speaker 1: you know, in the crosshairs right now, so to speak. 1278 01:04:39,400 --> 01:04:44,120 Speaker 1: It's very dramatic days, very interesting. Again, this may be 1279 01:04:44,240 --> 01:04:47,800 Speaker 1: the last flory of activity before the midterm elections, and 1280 01:04:47,840 --> 01:04:51,280 Speaker 1: we'll see what comes down after that. But again I 1281 01:04:51,360 --> 01:04:53,680 Speaker 1: go back to this sense, which is just you know, 1282 01:04:53,720 --> 01:04:55,920 Speaker 1: as a late person looking at this from the outside 1283 01:04:55,960 --> 01:04:58,840 Speaker 1: and considering the politics, which is definitely something that the 1284 01:04:58,880 --> 01:05:02,680 Speaker 1: DJ and the Biden ministry are considering. You can't put 1285 01:05:02,720 --> 01:05:06,600 Speaker 1: this much evidence and information of crimes into the public 1286 01:05:06,720 --> 01:05:10,120 Speaker 1: and then walk away from charging because that creates its 1287 01:05:10,160 --> 01:05:13,560 Speaker 1: own set of political problems. You know, previously, when we 1288 01:05:13,640 --> 01:05:16,840 Speaker 1: didn't have all this flurry of you know, Grand Jurie 1289 01:05:16,880 --> 01:05:19,680 Speaker 1: subpoenas and all of this. There was kind of like 1290 01:05:19,920 --> 01:05:23,040 Speaker 1: there there was some clamoring from liberals of like, ah, 1291 01:05:23,080 --> 01:05:26,560 Speaker 1: you got a charge Trump, but it was relatively quiet. 1292 01:05:26,680 --> 01:05:29,840 Speaker 1: It was not a huge focus of conversation. Now you've 1293 01:05:29,960 --> 01:05:33,200 Speaker 1: really raised expectations that this dude is actually going to 1294 01:05:33,280 --> 01:05:35,920 Speaker 1: be charged, and so, like I said, now they've created 1295 01:05:35,920 --> 01:05:38,440 Speaker 1: a political problem for themselves on the other side if 1296 01:05:38,480 --> 01:05:41,760 Speaker 1: they do decline to charge him. So that's why, you know, 1297 01:05:41,840 --> 01:05:43,800 Speaker 1: I tend to believe at this point that there will 1298 01:05:43,840 --> 01:05:46,720 Speaker 1: be an indictment of some sort coming at some point. 1299 01:05:46,800 --> 01:05:49,680 Speaker 1: But who knows. I'm not a DOJ insider. This is 1300 01:05:49,720 --> 01:05:52,600 Speaker 1: pure speculation, so we will wait and see like everybody else. 1301 01:05:52,680 --> 01:05:55,800 Speaker 1: That's right. Okay, final update here a good friend of 1302 01:05:55,800 --> 01:06:00,320 Speaker 1: the show, Brian Stelter. Let us never be said. If 1303 01:06:00,400 --> 01:06:03,000 Speaker 1: you are in the quote in club, you will never 1304 01:06:03,080 --> 01:06:06,080 Speaker 1: be out of a job. And Brian Stelter, he got 1305 01:06:06,120 --> 01:06:09,520 Speaker 1: fired at CNN only a week or so later. Let's 1306 01:06:09,560 --> 01:06:11,520 Speaker 1: put this up there on the screen. A major career 1307 01:06:11,560 --> 01:06:15,320 Speaker 1: announcement for mister Stelter. He's heading to Harvard as his 1308 01:06:15,400 --> 01:06:18,320 Speaker 1: home base while he figures out his next get. How 1309 01:06:18,400 --> 01:06:21,720 Speaker 1: nice of Harvard to do this, so let me read you, guys. 1310 01:06:21,800 --> 01:06:26,400 Speaker 1: This is from the Walter Schorenstein Media and Democracy Center, 1311 01:06:26,480 --> 01:06:30,080 Speaker 1: where he will be a recognized fellow. The Media Center 1312 01:06:30,160 --> 01:06:32,640 Speaker 1: brings high profile figures at the forefront of media and 1313 01:06:32,680 --> 01:06:35,840 Speaker 1: politics to Harvard's Kennedy School to work with students, faculty, 1314 01:06:35,840 --> 01:06:39,720 Speaker 1: and public important issues of the moment. Stelter will convene 1315 01:06:39,800 --> 01:06:43,840 Speaker 1: a series of discussions about threats to democracy the range 1316 01:06:43,880 --> 01:06:46,560 Speaker 1: of potential responses from the news media. I'm sure he 1317 01:06:46,600 --> 01:06:49,480 Speaker 1: has a lot to teach these students. Certainly doesn't, he says. 1318 01:06:49,520 --> 01:06:53,840 Speaker 1: Stelter is a nationally recognized media reporter and expert on 1319 01:06:53,920 --> 01:06:58,160 Speaker 1: the state of journalism it's wide ranging implications for society 1320 01:06:58,440 --> 01:07:02,560 Speaker 1: and governance. Until August, he was the anchor of Reliable Sources. 1321 01:07:02,600 --> 01:07:05,040 Speaker 1: I like how they put that. So he is heading 1322 01:07:05,040 --> 01:07:07,560 Speaker 1: to Harvard University. God bless those students. I feel kind 1323 01:07:07,560 --> 01:07:09,760 Speaker 1: of bad for them. This is exactly what they get. 1324 01:07:09,960 --> 01:07:12,480 Speaker 1: Harvard has long been a sinecure of some of the 1325 01:07:12,520 --> 01:07:15,480 Speaker 1: worst people in media. It's one of the places that 1326 01:07:15,600 --> 01:07:18,440 Speaker 1: hired Remember the Institute of Politics hired like Sean Spicer 1327 01:07:18,720 --> 01:07:21,439 Speaker 1: after he was fired by the Really, yeah, they hired shot. 1328 01:07:21,960 --> 01:07:25,280 Speaker 1: It's like they have this thing for hiring like failed 1329 01:07:25,520 --> 01:07:29,360 Speaker 1: Washington operatives or you know, people like Stelter, but they 1330 01:07:29,360 --> 01:07:31,400 Speaker 1: have a lot to teach our students, like, yeah, I 1331 01:07:31,400 --> 01:07:34,680 Speaker 1: guess they certainly do. Get fired from your job at 1332 01:07:34,720 --> 01:07:37,160 Speaker 1: CNN and be a low rated television host. What a 1333 01:07:37,680 --> 01:07:40,880 Speaker 1: dramatic success. I mean, the thing was Stelter. This guy 1334 01:07:41,360 --> 01:07:43,680 Speaker 1: was just like a CNN corporate show. I mean, he 1335 01:07:43,960 --> 01:07:49,880 Speaker 1: justified journalism. He justified their worst journalistic failures when it 1336 01:07:49,920 --> 01:07:53,320 Speaker 1: came to the whole Cuomo situation which caused their you know, 1337 01:07:53,440 --> 01:07:56,560 Speaker 1: highest level Executi Jef Zucker to ultimately lose his job. 1338 01:07:57,040 --> 01:07:59,680 Speaker 1: So for him to be rescued after he so clearly 1339 01:07:59,840 --> 01:08:02,000 Speaker 1: was engaged in this like cover up as well and 1340 01:08:02,160 --> 01:08:05,560 Speaker 1: just happy to tell whatever the CNN corporate line is, 1341 01:08:05,640 --> 01:08:08,760 Speaker 1: as you're supposed to be a media critic and like 1342 01:08:08,800 --> 01:08:11,440 Speaker 1: an honest broker, even when it comes to your own outlet, 1343 01:08:11,800 --> 01:08:13,600 Speaker 1: get out here. It is a total It's funny, you know. 1344 01:08:13,600 --> 01:08:16,240 Speaker 1: I'm actually giving a talk later today at Georgetown to 1345 01:08:16,280 --> 01:08:18,559 Speaker 1: some journalism students, and it's like one of the things 1346 01:08:18,600 --> 01:08:20,719 Speaker 1: I always emphasize, I talk to them like every semester 1347 01:08:20,840 --> 01:08:22,320 Speaker 1: is and I don't really even talk about what we 1348 01:08:22,360 --> 01:08:24,280 Speaker 1: do here. It's much more about like how to you know, 1349 01:08:24,360 --> 01:08:26,400 Speaker 1: start out in the business and all that is. I 1350 01:08:26,439 --> 01:08:29,080 Speaker 1: always tell them like, don't act like these people. I'm 1351 01:08:29,080 --> 01:08:31,360 Speaker 1: like these you know the CNN, and also I mean, 1352 01:08:31,439 --> 01:08:33,120 Speaker 1: these days are dead. I'm like, what you guys need 1353 01:08:33,160 --> 01:08:34,559 Speaker 1: to do is hustle. You need to actually be good 1354 01:08:34,600 --> 01:08:35,960 Speaker 1: at what you do. You need to make sure that 1355 01:08:36,000 --> 01:08:38,040 Speaker 1: you know how to do Twitter and you know, listen 1356 01:08:38,040 --> 01:08:40,559 Speaker 1: to podcasts, YouTube, stay in contact with people who are 1357 01:08:40,600 --> 01:08:43,320 Speaker 1: your age. Don't just you know, take on the hues 1358 01:08:43,400 --> 01:08:47,160 Speaker 1: of whatever the milieu of DC and all that teaches you, 1359 01:08:47,160 --> 01:08:48,880 Speaker 1: because you won't get anywhere. It's like, if you really 1360 01:08:48,960 --> 01:08:51,000 Speaker 1: want to get somewhere, you got to be somebody who's 1361 01:08:51,000 --> 01:08:54,160 Speaker 1: an independent thinker, chase things that are really important. And 1362 01:08:54,240 --> 01:08:57,320 Speaker 1: I just can't imagine, you know, being a student, especially 1363 01:08:57,400 --> 01:09:00,160 Speaker 1: one of these elite institutions and hearing and thinking that 1364 01:09:00,240 --> 01:09:02,280 Speaker 1: this is the way that you should conduct yourself well 1365 01:09:02,320 --> 01:09:04,559 Speaker 1: in the business. Well, you know, going forward, what Brian 1366 01:09:04,640 --> 01:09:08,759 Speaker 1: Stelter has to teach is that if you get in good, 1367 01:09:08,800 --> 01:09:12,439 Speaker 1: if you're good at playing the inside game of getting 1368 01:09:12,479 --> 01:09:15,360 Speaker 1: in good with the boss and being useful to him 1369 01:09:15,560 --> 01:09:19,200 Speaker 1: when necessary, which is what Brian Stelter's primary purpose there was. 1370 01:09:19,280 --> 01:09:21,519 Speaker 1: And clearly the minute that boss was on he was gone, 1371 01:09:21,560 --> 01:09:23,880 Speaker 1: because that was the whole reason that he was there. 1372 01:09:24,360 --> 01:09:27,280 Speaker 1: If you're good at that doesn't really matter. If you're talented, 1373 01:09:27,479 --> 01:09:30,040 Speaker 1: doesn't really matter. If you're good ratings, it doesn't really matter. 1374 01:09:30,080 --> 01:09:33,040 Speaker 1: If you're like blatantly wrong about stuff, you will continue 1375 01:09:33,080 --> 01:09:36,160 Speaker 1: to rise so long as you are useful to the 1376 01:09:36,200 --> 01:09:38,280 Speaker 1: people who are at the top. Now, the other thing 1377 01:09:38,320 --> 01:09:40,080 Speaker 1: he can teach is that the minute that you're not 1378 01:09:40,160 --> 01:09:42,200 Speaker 1: useful to the people at the top, then you got 1379 01:09:42,240 --> 01:09:44,960 Speaker 1: big problems. But you know, he landed final. He'll speed 1380 01:09:45,000 --> 01:09:48,120 Speaker 1: here at Harvard, He'll find Jig, He'll find someone else 1381 01:09:48,160 --> 01:09:50,280 Speaker 1: that he can be useful to here in DC. He's 1382 01:09:50,320 --> 01:09:52,000 Speaker 1: going to be in Harvard. He's going to come work 1383 01:09:52,080 --> 01:09:54,519 Speaker 1: some fake media corporation which has got one hundred million 1384 01:09:54,560 --> 01:09:57,080 Speaker 1: dollars in fake funding. And you know, if it flames out, 1385 01:09:57,200 --> 01:09:59,840 Speaker 1: nobody cares. As long as you're on the right team, 1386 01:10:00,040 --> 01:10:03,920 Speaker 1: you will be protected for eternity. It's a shocking element. 1387 01:10:04,160 --> 01:10:06,840 Speaker 1: We did an entire thing yesterday on nine to eleven. 1388 01:10:06,920 --> 01:10:08,920 Speaker 1: I was talking about how the Iraq war criminals are 1389 01:10:08,920 --> 01:10:13,040 Speaker 1: still all rich, fat and happy walking around town. Same thing. 1390 01:10:13,200 --> 01:10:15,040 Speaker 1: You could be one of these people. You know, they 1391 01:10:15,080 --> 01:10:16,920 Speaker 1: don't actually have to make it out here like us. 1392 01:10:16,960 --> 01:10:19,679 Speaker 1: You know, the actual quote unquote market. They've got plenty 1393 01:10:19,720 --> 01:10:22,760 Speaker 1: of rich patrons who will always float them throughout their 1394 01:10:22,840 --> 01:10:25,400 Speaker 1: fake careers. So it's pathetic. You know, you can be 1395 01:10:25,479 --> 01:10:27,120 Speaker 1: so bad at your job that you even get fired 1396 01:10:27,160 --> 01:10:30,240 Speaker 1: from CNN, you could still end up at Harvard University. 1397 01:10:30,800 --> 01:10:33,280 Speaker 1: It's an inspirational story in a way. It really is. 1398 01:10:33,400 --> 01:10:38,559 Speaker 1: There you go, all right, Sager, what are you looking at? You? Well, 1399 01:10:38,960 --> 01:10:41,880 Speaker 1: anytime that I see a person, a website, or something 1400 01:10:41,920 --> 01:10:44,840 Speaker 1: else just disappear from the Internet overnight. With the cheering 1401 01:10:44,840 --> 01:10:47,840 Speaker 1: on of the mainstream media and the near total unanimity 1402 01:10:47,880 --> 01:10:50,720 Speaker 1: from the commentariat, I got a lot of questions. The 1403 01:10:50,760 --> 01:10:53,040 Speaker 1: difficulty in parsing the stories that I'm about to get 1404 01:10:53,040 --> 01:10:56,360 Speaker 1: into is the level of sensitivity which we teach, you know, 1405 01:10:56,520 --> 01:11:00,719 Speaker 1: scrutinizing basic facts, and the notion that simply questioning people 1406 01:11:00,800 --> 01:11:03,360 Speaker 1: or standing up for a principle is in some way 1407 01:11:03,520 --> 01:11:06,920 Speaker 1: a total endorsement of the cause. So with all that 1408 01:11:07,000 --> 01:11:10,800 Speaker 1: out of the way, let's talk about Kiwi Farms Personally. 1409 01:11:10,960 --> 01:11:13,760 Speaker 1: I did not even know this website existed until this 1410 01:11:13,800 --> 01:11:17,240 Speaker 1: controversy burst forward. It is essentially a four chan or 1411 01:11:17,240 --> 01:11:20,280 Speaker 1: eight chan styled message board where people post a lot 1412 01:11:20,320 --> 01:11:23,640 Speaker 1: of crazy stuff. Like the cultures on those boards, a 1413 01:11:23,680 --> 01:11:27,120 Speaker 1: lot of it is mean spirited and awful. Indeed, one example, 1414 01:11:27,200 --> 01:11:30,000 Speaker 1: they hosted the video of the christ Church massacre. Certainly 1415 01:11:30,000 --> 01:11:32,759 Speaker 1: they've been linked to harassment campaigns which in the past 1416 01:11:32,760 --> 01:11:35,600 Speaker 1: have pushed people to suicide. It's important I'm going to 1417 01:11:35,680 --> 01:11:39,360 Speaker 1: lay out exactly how noxious that website is because, as usual, 1418 01:11:39,520 --> 01:11:42,880 Speaker 1: the edge cases are where precedents are made for speech 1419 01:11:43,000 --> 01:11:45,800 Speaker 1: on the Internet. Things burst to the four over the 1420 01:11:45,880 --> 01:11:48,880 Speaker 1: last month after a Twitch streamer known as Kefel's or 1421 01:11:48,920 --> 01:11:52,639 Speaker 1: Clara Sorrenti, began a campaign to get major Internet service 1422 01:11:52,680 --> 01:11:57,920 Speaker 1: providers to drop Kiwi Farms. Sorrenti, a transactivist who unquestionably 1423 01:11:57,920 --> 01:12:00,839 Speaker 1: has been targeted and harassed by people from Kiwi Farms 1424 01:12:00,960 --> 01:12:03,519 Speaker 1: and across the Internet, was pushed to make this public 1425 01:12:03,560 --> 01:12:06,920 Speaker 1: campaign after she quote got swatted. Now, for those who 1426 01:12:06,960 --> 01:12:11,200 Speaker 1: don't know swatting, it's a really horrific tactic online trolls 1427 01:12:11,240 --> 01:12:14,519 Speaker 1: will use that effectively involves calling in the police to 1428 01:12:14,560 --> 01:12:17,360 Speaker 1: an Internet personalities house claiming that they are in an 1429 01:12:17,400 --> 01:12:20,120 Speaker 1: imminent danger or imminent danger to someone else. This happened 1430 01:12:20,120 --> 01:12:23,160 Speaker 1: both to Serrenti. This happened to broadcasters like Timpoole many 1431 01:12:23,160 --> 01:12:26,519 Speaker 1: other Internet personalities over the years. It's an especially vile 1432 01:12:26,560 --> 01:12:30,360 Speaker 1: and awful thing that has evolved. Sorrenti's campaign was rooted 1433 01:12:30,400 --> 01:12:33,240 Speaker 1: in the fact that Kiwi Farms appeared to be the 1434 01:12:33,280 --> 01:12:37,240 Speaker 1: epicenter of harassment against her. Now. Sorrenti's main target was 1435 01:12:37,280 --> 01:12:40,560 Speaker 1: a company called cloud Fare. If You're not familiar, effectively 1436 01:12:40,600 --> 01:12:43,439 Speaker 1: acts as a security service for websites that prevents it 1437 01:12:43,479 --> 01:12:46,320 Speaker 1: from being subject to denial of service attacks. In the 1438 01:12:46,360 --> 01:12:49,280 Speaker 1: modern Internet, it is almost thought of as a utility, 1439 01:12:49,520 --> 01:12:52,640 Speaker 1: as it ensures those websites with high traffic or controversial 1440 01:12:52,640 --> 01:12:55,600 Speaker 1: ones that your service will continue. To date, has no 1441 01:12:55,720 --> 01:12:59,320 Speaker 1: real market competitor. Cloud Fair before the last several years, 1442 01:12:59,479 --> 01:13:04,280 Speaker 1: cast its as a free speech absolutist company. In twenty eleven, 1443 01:13:04,320 --> 01:13:07,040 Speaker 1: the company ridiculed the idea it would take down an 1444 01:13:07,040 --> 01:13:11,680 Speaker 1: objectionable website, specifically noting quote Cloudfare is firm in our 1445 01:13:11,680 --> 01:13:14,280 Speaker 1: belief that our role is not of an Internet censor. 1446 01:13:14,479 --> 01:13:17,639 Speaker 1: There are tens of thousands of websites currently using Cloudfair's network, 1447 01:13:17,800 --> 01:13:20,920 Speaker 1: some of them can contain information I find troubling. Such 1448 01:13:21,000 --> 01:13:23,439 Speaker 1: is the nature of a free and open network, and 1449 01:13:23,479 --> 01:13:25,679 Speaker 1: as an organization that aims to make the whole Internet 1450 01:13:25,720 --> 01:13:29,240 Speaker 1: faster and safer, such inherently will be our ongoing struggle. 1451 01:13:29,560 --> 01:13:33,320 Speaker 1: In effect, Cloudfare's declaration was inherent to an open internet 1452 01:13:33,400 --> 01:13:37,280 Speaker 1: is society's problems that by trying to litigate speech outside 1453 01:13:37,280 --> 01:13:39,640 Speaker 1: the bounds of what is already against the law, in 1454 01:13:39,680 --> 01:13:43,360 Speaker 1: this case specific doxing or someone's personal identity publicly, child 1455 01:13:43,439 --> 01:13:46,320 Speaker 1: pornography and other things, they would air on the side 1456 01:13:46,360 --> 01:13:49,600 Speaker 1: of not deciding who and what is on the Internet. 1457 01:13:49,840 --> 01:13:52,720 Speaker 1: Over the years, Cloudfare and his CEO provided service to 1458 01:13:52,760 --> 01:13:57,240 Speaker 1: websites from Al Qaeda white supremacists, but everything changed after 1459 01:13:57,240 --> 01:14:01,240 Speaker 1: the Greater Wokening of twenty seventeen. Years of ridiculing the 1460 01:14:01,280 --> 01:14:04,160 Speaker 1: idea that the twenty billion dollar company could decide what 1461 01:14:04,240 --> 01:14:06,880 Speaker 1: to censor and what not the bounds of the law 1462 01:14:07,080 --> 01:14:11,240 Speaker 1: that cloud Fair changed its position. The CEO, Matthew Prince, 1463 01:14:11,240 --> 01:14:14,040 Speaker 1: wrote in twenty seventeen after the Charlottesville riots, he was 1464 01:14:14,040 --> 01:14:17,639 Speaker 1: suspending service to a white nationalist website called The Daily Stormer. 1465 01:14:17,880 --> 01:14:21,360 Speaker 1: He wrote, I'm almost a free speech absolutist and quote, 1466 01:14:21,400 --> 01:14:23,400 Speaker 1: I woke up this morning in a bad mood and 1467 01:14:23,479 --> 01:14:26,200 Speaker 1: decided to kick them off the Internet. He underscored quote, 1468 01:14:26,200 --> 01:14:29,200 Speaker 1: It's important what we did today not set a precedent. 1469 01:14:29,400 --> 01:14:32,439 Speaker 1: Prince acknowledged that under US law he is allowed to 1470 01:14:32,479 --> 01:14:36,000 Speaker 1: effectively ban whatever he wants, and noted he probably should 1471 01:14:36,080 --> 01:14:38,240 Speaker 1: not be allowed to do that. It was a major 1472 01:14:38,280 --> 01:14:41,120 Speaker 1: demarcation point for the Internet. Of course, it came at 1473 01:14:41,160 --> 01:14:43,960 Speaker 1: one of the most fraught points in Trump's presidency. The 1474 01:14:44,120 --> 01:14:47,799 Speaker 1: entire problem, of course, is that once the seal is broken, 1475 01:14:48,040 --> 01:14:51,679 Speaker 1: despite Prince's promises, it has now happened again and again. 1476 01:14:52,040 --> 01:14:54,200 Speaker 1: Cloud Fair next acted when it took down eight chan 1477 01:14:54,320 --> 01:14:57,000 Speaker 1: in twenty nineteen. The cause for the denial of service 1478 01:14:57,160 --> 01:14:59,680 Speaker 1: was the fact that El Paso gunman had posted his 1479 01:14:59,680 --> 01:15:02,679 Speaker 1: screen to the website before going on his killing spree, 1480 01:15:02,720 --> 01:15:05,160 Speaker 1: and cloud Fair noted that the christ Church shooter had 1481 01:15:05,160 --> 01:15:07,960 Speaker 1: done so as well. In his decision, Here's what cloud 1482 01:15:07,960 --> 01:15:10,679 Speaker 1: Fair said, quote the rationale is simple. They have proven 1483 01:15:10,720 --> 01:15:14,080 Speaker 1: to be lawless, and that lawlessness has caused multiple tragic deaths. 1484 01:15:14,320 --> 01:15:16,479 Speaker 1: Even if eight chan may not have violated the letter 1485 01:15:16,520 --> 01:15:19,080 Speaker 1: of the law. In refusing to moderate their hate field community, 1486 01:15:19,200 --> 01:15:22,439 Speaker 1: they have created an environment that revels in violating its spirit. 1487 01:15:22,880 --> 01:15:25,760 Speaker 1: Notice that phrase. Even if eight chan may have not 1488 01:15:25,920 --> 01:15:29,280 Speaker 1: violated the letter of the law, this itself is the problem. 1489 01:15:29,360 --> 01:15:32,080 Speaker 1: In a whole nutshell, we have one company which is 1490 01:15:32,120 --> 01:15:34,679 Speaker 1: basically capable of this. They started out for free speech. 1491 01:15:34,920 --> 01:15:37,240 Speaker 1: As what happens to societies, there are really some sick 1492 01:15:37,280 --> 01:15:40,160 Speaker 1: and terrible people who use the Internet like exist and 1493 01:15:40,280 --> 01:15:42,599 Speaker 1: much to the chagrin of many users in the free 1494 01:15:42,600 --> 01:15:45,639 Speaker 1: speech era, as long as those people don't break the law, 1495 01:15:45,960 --> 01:15:48,280 Speaker 1: they don't lose the freedom. Now, of course it's cloud 1496 01:15:48,320 --> 01:15:50,280 Speaker 1: fair is right. Under the current system, they can do 1497 01:15:50,320 --> 01:15:52,400 Speaker 1: as they please. And the reason I'm framing things is 1498 01:15:52,439 --> 01:15:54,920 Speaker 1: this way because getting to bog down those exact details 1499 01:15:54,920 --> 01:15:57,960 Speaker 1: of who harassed to or who didn't is genuinely beside 1500 01:15:58,000 --> 01:16:00,599 Speaker 1: the point when we're talking about exact posts policies which 1501 01:16:00,640 --> 01:16:03,960 Speaker 1: governed the entire Internet, the method of mass communication in 1502 01:16:04,000 --> 01:16:06,880 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. So with all that exposition that brings 1503 01:16:06,920 --> 01:16:09,680 Speaker 1: us to the latest episode, cloud Fair continued after the 1504 01:16:09,720 --> 01:16:11,720 Speaker 1: denial of service to eight chan to say that it 1505 01:16:11,760 --> 01:16:14,040 Speaker 1: stood for free speech and did not want to act 1506 01:16:14,080 --> 01:16:16,960 Speaker 1: in a similar manner. After the Serrnty continued her campaign 1507 01:16:17,040 --> 01:16:19,479 Speaker 1: with the help of mainstream media supporters who rallied to 1508 01:16:19,520 --> 01:16:22,720 Speaker 1: her cause, cloud Fair initially responded they were sticking to 1509 01:16:22,760 --> 01:16:26,280 Speaker 1: their guns. The CEO noted that the company regretted taking 1510 01:16:26,280 --> 01:16:28,679 Speaker 1: down eight Chan and Daily Stormer, saying they were quote 1511 01:16:28,680 --> 01:16:32,120 Speaker 1: troubled by it, especially because it encouraged foreign governments to 1512 01:16:32,200 --> 01:16:35,479 Speaker 1: campaign for their websites and to drop service to drop 1513 01:16:35,680 --> 01:16:39,120 Speaker 1: human rights organizations in their countries. The CEO and other 1514 01:16:39,200 --> 01:16:42,719 Speaker 1: executives argued cloudshare should be treated as a utility company 1515 01:16:42,720 --> 01:16:45,599 Speaker 1: on the Internet, saying, quote, just as the telephone company 1516 01:16:45,600 --> 01:16:48,519 Speaker 1: doesn't terminate your line if you say awful, racist, bigoted things. 1517 01:16:48,680 --> 01:16:52,200 Speaker 1: We have concluded in consultation with politicians, policymakers, experts at 1518 01:16:52,200 --> 01:16:54,719 Speaker 1: turning off security services because what we think you published 1519 01:16:54,720 --> 01:16:57,639 Speaker 1: as despicable is the wrong policy. I agree with that, 1520 01:16:57,800 --> 01:16:59,920 Speaker 1: while acknowledging that what was done to Surrenty in the 1521 01:17:00,000 --> 01:17:03,200 Speaker 1: wrests against her are horrific. Here's the problem. The moment 1522 01:17:03,240 --> 01:17:06,840 Speaker 1: Cloudfair realized major enterprise criants might drop them because the 1523 01:17:06,880 --> 01:17:10,719 Speaker 1: mainstream media started asking why they supported harassment, they reversed course, 1524 01:17:11,080 --> 01:17:15,959 Speaker 1: literally overnight. Seventy two hours later, the company reversed its policy, 1525 01:17:16,200 --> 01:17:18,959 Speaker 1: saying that they were immediately going to drop the website 1526 01:17:19,040 --> 01:17:22,599 Speaker 1: Kiwi Farms, saying, quote, the rhetoric on Kiwi Farms site 1527 01:17:22,600 --> 01:17:25,679 Speaker 1: and specific targeted threats have escalated over the last forty 1528 01:17:25,680 --> 01:17:27,200 Speaker 1: eight hours to the point that we believe there is 1529 01:17:27,240 --> 01:17:30,799 Speaker 1: an unprecedented emergency and immediate threat to human life, unlike 1530 01:17:30,840 --> 01:17:33,320 Speaker 1: that we have previously seen from Kiwi Farms or any 1531 01:17:33,360 --> 01:17:36,720 Speaker 1: other customer before that moment was celebrated by Serrenti. By 1532 01:17:36,720 --> 01:17:39,839 Speaker 1: the mainstream media, they cheered on the decision, including censorship 1533 01:17:39,880 --> 01:17:42,360 Speaker 1: advocate Taylor of The Wrenz at The Washington Post. The 1534 01:17:42,400 --> 01:17:44,920 Speaker 1: issue is the facts do not line up with Cloudfair's 1535 01:17:44,960 --> 01:17:48,840 Speaker 1: version of events at all. Cloudfair claimed miraculously things had 1536 01:17:48,920 --> 01:17:51,840 Speaker 1: changed after it published this defense of Kiwi Farms, citing 1537 01:17:51,880 --> 01:17:54,800 Speaker 1: a so called imminent threat to human life, But as 1538 01:17:54,880 --> 01:17:58,799 Speaker 1: journalist Jesse Sengel has uncovered, there were exactly two violent 1539 01:17:58,840 --> 01:18:02,000 Speaker 1: threats that were published on this website. Both were immediately 1540 01:18:02,120 --> 01:18:06,320 Speaker 1: yanked down. Sangle's version of events reveals that harassment against 1541 01:18:06,320 --> 01:18:10,840 Speaker 1: Serrenti was undoubtedly happening, that Kiwi Farms was a major 1542 01:18:10,880 --> 01:18:14,000 Speaker 1: place for it, but that within the bounds of current 1543 01:18:14,080 --> 01:18:17,240 Speaker 1: law it appeared not to violate it. Here is where 1544 01:18:17,240 --> 01:18:20,800 Speaker 1: I see the problem cloudfare. The mainstream media others are 1545 01:18:20,840 --> 01:18:23,800 Speaker 1: effectively now establishing a new rule for the Internet. If 1546 01:18:23,840 --> 01:18:26,120 Speaker 1: you can get enough people to complain, if you can 1547 01:18:26,160 --> 01:18:28,360 Speaker 1: get the media on your side, and effectively, if you 1548 01:18:28,360 --> 01:18:31,240 Speaker 1: can claim your life is in danger, whether true or not, 1549 01:18:31,800 --> 01:18:35,400 Speaker 1: you can get a website taken off the Internet. Just 1550 01:18:35,439 --> 01:18:38,240 Speaker 1: to show you how biparts and weaponization of personal grievance 1551 01:18:38,320 --> 01:18:41,800 Speaker 1: can be. Here's Marjorie Taylor Green also advocating for taking 1552 01:18:41,880 --> 01:18:46,519 Speaker 1: down Kiwi Farms because it may again may have been 1553 01:18:46,520 --> 01:18:49,599 Speaker 1: the place where a similar swatting incident was organized against her. 1554 01:18:50,040 --> 01:18:53,040 Speaker 1: But it isn't it concerning that such a website exists? Like, 1555 01:18:53,080 --> 01:18:56,080 Speaker 1: why does that even exist? That website needs to be 1556 01:18:56,120 --> 01:18:59,760 Speaker 1: taken down. There should be no business or any kind 1557 01:18:59,760 --> 01:19:04,639 Speaker 1: of service where you can target your enemy. That's absolutely absurd. 1558 01:19:05,240 --> 01:19:08,680 Speaker 1: When removal of websites is on the table, any aggrieved 1559 01:19:08,760 --> 01:19:11,920 Speaker 1: party will seize on it for their own benefit. Kiwi 1560 01:19:11,920 --> 01:19:15,200 Speaker 1: Farms is now dead. That's not really an exaggeration, As 1561 01:19:15,200 --> 01:19:18,080 Speaker 1: the administrator of Kiwi Farm says, it will likely never 1562 01:19:18,120 --> 01:19:22,120 Speaker 1: be available on the open Internet. Again, I underscore litigating 1563 01:19:22,120 --> 01:19:24,759 Speaker 1: the exact facts of the exact threats belies the point. 1564 01:19:24,880 --> 01:19:27,920 Speaker 1: The point is this power cannot and should not reside 1565 01:19:27,960 --> 01:19:30,639 Speaker 1: with a single company, and these single points of failure 1566 01:19:30,920 --> 01:19:35,080 Speaker 1: should not be litigated by pressure campaigns and vibes. We 1567 01:19:35,160 --> 01:19:39,840 Speaker 1: need rules, actual rules, laws in place that govern this thing. Otherwise, 1568 01:19:39,960 --> 01:19:42,839 Speaker 1: just as we see with Cloudfair's evolution, the rules simply 1569 01:19:42,880 --> 01:19:46,479 Speaker 1: just change with the times. In fact, after Cloudfair's decision, 1570 01:19:46,680 --> 01:19:49,280 Speaker 1: Kiwi Farms has now been dropped by its competitor. It's 1571 01:19:49,320 --> 01:19:52,040 Speaker 1: been removed from the wayback machine, meaning you cannot even 1572 01:19:52,120 --> 01:19:55,799 Speaker 1: read its archive. Iceland sees it still made in the country. 1573 01:19:56,080 --> 01:20:00,080 Speaker 1: Google delisted it completely from search results, and Google v 1574 01:20:00,280 --> 01:20:03,760 Speaker 1: has booted the administrator. It's as if the site literally 1575 01:20:04,080 --> 01:20:07,400 Speaker 1: never existed at all, all because it became a cause 1576 01:20:07,479 --> 01:20:10,880 Speaker 1: to lab online. The First Amendment has two hundred years 1577 01:20:10,920 --> 01:20:14,479 Speaker 1: of case law that established the extremely limited exceptions to 1578 01:20:14,520 --> 01:20:16,800 Speaker 1: which free speech is allowed to be limited by the 1579 01:20:16,800 --> 01:20:19,680 Speaker 1: government and authority. This standard has stood the test of 1580 01:20:19,720 --> 01:20:23,639 Speaker 1: time because at times being uncomfortable for whatever social movement 1581 01:20:23,840 --> 01:20:27,920 Speaker 1: is considered acceptable. Its existence is a recognition that dissent 1582 01:20:28,120 --> 01:20:31,360 Speaker 1: is vital and must be protected. The absence of this law, 1583 01:20:31,600 --> 01:20:34,600 Speaker 1: the existence of the human element, which effectively utilities for 1584 01:20:34,640 --> 01:20:38,320 Speaker 1: being online, leaves anyone who occupies any area of descent 1585 01:20:38,439 --> 01:20:43,400 Speaker 1: vulnerable to effective disappearance if the right people take notice. 1586 01:20:43,560 --> 01:20:47,320 Speaker 1: I fundamentally reject this framework, and I'm watching an alarm 1587 01:20:47,360 --> 01:20:50,120 Speaker 1: while the rules and the presence of the Internet just changed, 1588 01:20:50,439 --> 01:20:53,639 Speaker 1: marched in a more censorius direction for the third time 1589 01:20:53,840 --> 01:20:56,879 Speaker 1: in the last five years. It is capable to understand 1590 01:20:56,920 --> 01:21:01,000 Speaker 1: and acknowledge that while also acknowledging the horrific harassment that 1591 01:21:01,080 --> 01:21:04,280 Speaker 1: was directed at Miss Serrenti and many others who are online. 1592 01:21:04,400 --> 01:21:06,879 Speaker 1: We have to solve this problem as soon as possible, 1593 01:21:07,040 --> 01:21:10,200 Speaker 1: because if we don't, the journalists will be in charge. 1594 01:21:10,439 --> 01:21:13,320 Speaker 1: Given how wrong they are, that should scare the living 1595 01:21:13,360 --> 01:21:15,240 Speaker 1: hell out of you. So this took me way too 1596 01:21:15,320 --> 01:21:17,760 Speaker 1: long to get to the bottom up and if you 1597 01:21:17,760 --> 01:21:20,600 Speaker 1: want to hear my reaction to Sagres's monologue, become a 1598 01:21:20,640 --> 01:21:26,680 Speaker 1: premium subscriber today at breakingpoints dot com. CHRISTL what are 1599 01:21:26,680 --> 01:21:29,920 Speaker 1: you taking a look at? Well, guys, we could be 1600 01:21:30,040 --> 01:21:33,880 Speaker 1: facing a massive rail strike in a number of days, 1601 01:21:34,080 --> 01:21:37,920 Speaker 1: and President Biden is apparently in total panic. Mode over it. 1602 01:21:38,120 --> 01:21:41,280 Speaker 1: So we've got Labor Secretary Marty Walls Transportation Secretary Pete 1603 01:21:41,280 --> 01:21:44,679 Speaker 1: Boodagege holding emergency meetings to try to overt a shutdown, 1604 01:21:44,720 --> 01:21:48,440 Speaker 1: which would upend the economy and good tank Democrats' midterm prospects. 1605 01:21:48,720 --> 01:21:53,120 Speaker 1: President Biden has reportedly personally intervened as well. So I'm 1606 01:21:53,120 --> 01:21:55,080 Speaker 1: going to break down the whole situation. We've been covering 1607 01:21:55,080 --> 01:21:57,040 Speaker 1: this for a while, but keep in mind as we 1608 01:21:57,080 --> 01:22:00,520 Speaker 1: dive into all of this, this is a completely avoidable 1609 01:22:00,520 --> 01:22:04,679 Speaker 1: crisis could be immediately averted if the railroad bosses would 1610 01:22:04,720 --> 01:22:08,880 Speaker 1: just treat workers humanely with some really basic provisions, things 1611 01:22:09,000 --> 01:22:12,479 Speaker 1: like time off and sick days. Now, I have been 1612 01:22:12,479 --> 01:22:15,200 Speaker 1: warning of this for a while. You'll recall railroad workers 1613 01:22:15,240 --> 01:22:18,639 Speaker 1: have been furious with their mistreatment by corporate bosses. Freight 1614 01:22:18,720 --> 01:22:22,320 Speaker 1: rail prosper during the pandemic, with companies including Warrant Buffett 1615 01:22:22,320 --> 01:22:26,680 Speaker 1: owned BNSF recording historic profits. Workers, though, of course, have 1616 01:22:26,800 --> 01:22:29,240 Speaker 1: not been cut in on that deal. Quite the opposite. 1617 01:22:29,320 --> 01:22:32,479 Speaker 1: As demand surged, workers have been forced to shoulder the 1618 01:22:32,479 --> 01:22:37,400 Speaker 1: burden with insane schedules literally no sick days, literally no weekends. 1619 01:22:37,760 --> 01:22:40,599 Speaker 1: Many of those workers voted to authorize a strike months ago, 1620 01:22:40,680 --> 01:22:43,519 Speaker 1: but because of the peculiar quirks in the law governing 1621 01:22:43,600 --> 01:22:46,840 Speaker 1: railroad labor, these workers were barred for a time from 1622 01:22:46,880 --> 01:22:50,800 Speaker 1: taking any action. Instead, President Biden appointed a board to 1623 01:22:50,840 --> 01:22:55,320 Speaker 1: propose a potential compromise contract. That compromise had some decent 1624 01:22:55,360 --> 01:22:58,439 Speaker 1: provisions on wages, but left unresolved the quality of life 1625 01:22:58,520 --> 01:23:02,719 Speaker 1: issues that for many workers was the main primary point 1626 01:23:02,800 --> 01:23:06,280 Speaker 1: of pain. After all, workers right now are being fired 1627 01:23:06,520 --> 01:23:09,679 Speaker 1: simply because they have to take care of routine doctor's 1628 01:23:09,720 --> 01:23:13,000 Speaker 1: appointments or because they get sick. So for the largest 1629 01:23:13,040 --> 01:23:16,640 Speaker 1: two unions representing a bulk of these workers, the proposed 1630 01:23:16,680 --> 01:23:20,760 Speaker 1: compromise was wholly unacceptable. An informal survey of rank and 1631 01:23:20,800 --> 01:23:23,800 Speaker 1: file rail workers found that more than ninety percent would 1632 01:23:23,840 --> 01:23:27,719 Speaker 1: reject the board's recommendations. Ninety six percent said they should 1633 01:23:27,760 --> 01:23:30,960 Speaker 1: strike once they are permitted to by law, and that 1634 01:23:31,080 --> 01:23:34,840 Speaker 1: date is now just days away. Workers could strike as 1635 01:23:34,840 --> 01:23:38,040 Speaker 1: soon as Friday if no deal is reached, and by 1636 01:23:38,080 --> 01:23:41,920 Speaker 1: the way, these employers could also have a shutout a 1637 01:23:42,000 --> 01:23:45,400 Speaker 1: lockout by Friday as well. So what will happen now? Well, 1638 01:23:45,439 --> 01:23:48,200 Speaker 1: ideally management will come to a deal that everyone can 1639 01:23:48,240 --> 01:23:51,080 Speaker 1: live with. The signs right now, they are not good. Instead, 1640 01:23:51,120 --> 01:23:53,880 Speaker 1: the railroad CEO seem to be pushing for Congress to 1641 01:23:53,880 --> 01:23:57,320 Speaker 1: get involved here. Because railway labor relations again are governed 1642 01:23:57,320 --> 01:23:59,880 Speaker 1: by their own set of laws, one provision allows Congress 1643 01:23:59,880 --> 01:24:02,080 Speaker 1: to cram down a deal that both sides would be 1644 01:24:02,160 --> 01:24:05,760 Speaker 1: legally bound by. Right now, rail bosses are weaponizing their 1645 01:24:05,800 --> 01:24:09,400 Speaker 1: economic weight to try to scare the politicians into taking actions. 1646 01:24:09,400 --> 01:24:12,280 Speaker 1: Since the railroad bosses expect that they would get a 1647 01:24:12,320 --> 01:24:15,479 Speaker 1: better deal with elected officials who are worried about donors 1648 01:24:15,520 --> 01:24:18,920 Speaker 1: and midterms than they would directly negotiating with the unions 1649 01:24:18,960 --> 01:24:22,600 Speaker 1: and the workers. So already, even in advance of the 1650 01:24:22,600 --> 01:24:26,479 Speaker 1: potential strike or lockout, freight carriers are putting an embargo 1651 01:24:26,520 --> 01:24:29,360 Speaker 1: on certain types of shipments and warning that rail shippers 1652 01:24:29,400 --> 01:24:32,960 Speaker 1: could be blocked from making any shipments at all. Effectively, 1653 01:24:33,000 --> 01:24:35,719 Speaker 1: what they're doing here is trying to hold rail shipment's 1654 01:24:35,800 --> 01:24:39,439 Speaker 1: hostage to gain leverage in the negotiations and try again 1655 01:24:39,479 --> 01:24:42,960 Speaker 1: to force Congress's hand. The unions, who sense that Congress 1656 01:24:42,960 --> 01:24:46,559 Speaker 1: would side with industry, are adamantly opposed to Congressional intervention 1657 01:24:46,640 --> 01:24:49,639 Speaker 1: and a joint statement they wrote, quote, these self appointed 1658 01:24:49,680 --> 01:24:53,640 Speaker 1: titans of industry complained constantly about government regulation and interference, 1659 01:24:54,240 --> 01:24:56,880 Speaker 1: except now when it comes to breaking the backs of 1660 01:24:56,960 --> 01:24:59,400 Speaker 1: their employees. It's time for the federal government to tell 1661 01:24:59,439 --> 01:25:01,840 Speaker 1: the CEOs who are running the nation's railroads into the 1662 01:25:01,840 --> 01:25:05,559 Speaker 1: ground that enough is enough. Congress should stay out of 1663 01:25:05,600 --> 01:25:08,000 Speaker 1: the rail dispute and tell the railroads to do what 1664 01:25:08,040 --> 01:25:11,520 Speaker 1: other business leaders do, sit down and bargain a contract 1665 01:25:11,520 --> 01:25:14,920 Speaker 1: that your employees will accept. Now, if Congress keeps their 1666 01:25:14,960 --> 01:25:18,080 Speaker 1: nose out, that would leave a third possibility that we 1667 01:25:18,160 --> 01:25:21,519 Speaker 1: face an actual strike or a lockout. Now, the economic 1668 01:25:21,560 --> 01:25:24,479 Speaker 1: impacts of this would be huge. We're talking passenger and 1669 01:25:24,560 --> 01:25:28,320 Speaker 1: freight rail vegetables, rotting, consumer goods, stuck backlogs growing and 1670 01:25:28,439 --> 01:25:31,160 Speaker 1: threatening the Christmas shopping season. The last thing we need 1671 01:25:31,240 --> 01:25:33,240 Speaker 1: right now is more supply chain issues. Just that there 1672 01:25:33,240 --> 01:25:35,880 Speaker 1: have been some positive signs on inflation, although we got 1673 01:25:35,880 --> 01:25:38,439 Speaker 1: a new report today things are looking so good there either, 1674 01:25:38,800 --> 01:25:41,160 Speaker 1: and all because rail bosses don't want to let people 1675 01:25:41,200 --> 01:25:44,639 Speaker 1: have enough time off to go to a frickin doctor's appointment. 1676 01:25:45,000 --> 01:25:47,000 Speaker 1: Although I have no doubt most of the mainstream press 1677 01:25:47,040 --> 01:25:49,759 Speaker 1: will frame this all as the worker's fault, given current 1678 01:25:49,840 --> 01:25:52,640 Speaker 1: historic levels of support for unions and public support for 1679 01:25:52,720 --> 01:25:55,080 Speaker 1: recent strikes, they might have a bit of a tough 1680 01:25:55,120 --> 01:25:58,200 Speaker 1: time trying to manufacture consent on this one this time around, 1681 01:25:58,640 --> 01:26:01,840 Speaker 1: regardless of whether the public sides with the workers or industry. However, 1682 01:26:02,160 --> 01:26:04,519 Speaker 1: doesn't take a political genius to figure out such an 1683 01:26:04,520 --> 01:26:08,479 Speaker 1: outcome would be a disaster for Democratic midterm prospects. Hence 1684 01:26:08,520 --> 01:26:10,960 Speaker 1: the emergency meetings and general panic that's set in at 1685 01:26:10,960 --> 01:26:13,040 Speaker 1: the White House this week as they stare down the 1686 01:26:13,040 --> 01:26:16,400 Speaker 1: barrel of a September surprise that could easily undo all 1687 01:26:16,439 --> 01:26:18,719 Speaker 1: the polling gains they have made in the past couple months. 1688 01:26:18,920 --> 01:26:21,519 Speaker 1: I'm sure Mayor Piece got this all under control, right, guys. 1689 01:26:22,120 --> 01:26:24,400 Speaker 1: The media is just now waking up to this story 1690 01:26:24,439 --> 01:26:27,520 Speaker 1: and what a big deal it could ultimately be for politics, 1691 01:26:27,560 --> 01:26:30,960 Speaker 1: for economics, and obviously for workers. Keep a close eye 1692 01:26:31,000 --> 01:26:33,720 Speaker 1: on this one as that Friday deadline approaches. We are 1693 01:26:33,720 --> 01:26:37,040 Speaker 1: about to find out just how committed Biden actually is 1694 01:26:37,320 --> 01:26:41,960 Speaker 1: to his pro worker rhetoric. So Stemmy Hoyer Soger has 1695 01:26:42,000 --> 01:26:45,080 Speaker 1: also you know, congressional leader House Democratical and if you 1696 01:26:45,120 --> 01:26:47,840 Speaker 1: want to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue, become a 1697 01:26:47,880 --> 01:26:54,479 Speaker 1: premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot Com and joining us 1698 01:26:54,479 --> 01:26:56,360 Speaker 1: now is the one and only Jeff's time. You're to 1699 01:26:56,400 --> 01:26:58,439 Speaker 1: see you, Jeff. Good to see you man. Thanks for 1700 01:26:58,479 --> 01:27:00,559 Speaker 1: having back on guys, really appreciate it. Got to work 1701 01:27:00,560 --> 01:27:03,320 Speaker 1: in today. Excited about that. Let's go ahead and put 1702 01:27:03,360 --> 01:27:07,240 Speaker 1: your latest reporting here about the Republican plan to use 1703 01:27:07,280 --> 01:27:09,800 Speaker 1: the courts to block Biden's student loan debt relief. It's 1704 01:27:09,840 --> 01:27:12,160 Speaker 1: god and put that up on the screen. Headline here 1705 01:27:12,360 --> 01:27:16,240 Speaker 1: is Republicans are reading lawsuits to block Biden's student debt plan. 1706 01:27:16,680 --> 01:27:20,360 Speaker 1: GP attorneys general, top lawmakers, and conservative groups are discussing 1707 01:27:20,520 --> 01:27:24,040 Speaker 1: legal options alleging the White House's move to cancel student 1708 01:27:24,120 --> 01:27:28,800 Speaker 1: debt is illegal. What are they looking at here, Jeff? So, 1709 01:27:29,520 --> 01:27:31,680 Speaker 1: when the White House announced that student debt plan, there 1710 01:27:31,680 --> 01:27:33,360 Speaker 1: was this question of how are they going to defend this. 1711 01:27:33,439 --> 01:27:37,479 Speaker 1: It's a huge unilateral action, a huge expansion of executive authority, 1712 01:27:37,479 --> 01:27:38,880 Speaker 1: and there's a question of, you know, can they do 1713 01:27:38,920 --> 01:27:41,960 Speaker 1: this without Congress. The White House cited a law that 1714 01:27:42,000 --> 01:27:44,160 Speaker 1: Congress passed after the nine to eleven attacks in two 1715 01:27:44,160 --> 01:27:46,640 Speaker 1: thousand and three that gave the president, they say, at 1716 01:27:46,720 --> 01:27:50,720 Speaker 1: least broad discretion over student loan over the student loan 1717 01:27:50,760 --> 01:27:54,760 Speaker 1: portfolio essentially, and Republicans are saying that the context in 1718 01:27:54,800 --> 01:27:58,200 Speaker 1: which that law was passed was clearly emergency measures after 1719 01:27:58,280 --> 01:28:00,800 Speaker 1: nine to eleven, not in a ten to allow the 1720 01:28:00,800 --> 01:28:03,720 Speaker 1: president to completely write higher education law. So that's what 1721 01:28:03,760 --> 01:28:06,559 Speaker 1: they'll be focused on. But as we can discuss, the 1722 01:28:06,600 --> 01:28:09,120 Speaker 1: critical issue for Republicans, the cording to the legal analysts 1723 01:28:09,160 --> 01:28:12,240 Speaker 1: I speak to, is not necessarily even that question about 1724 01:28:12,240 --> 01:28:15,280 Speaker 1: whether the two thousand and three law can be justifiably cited. 1725 01:28:15,280 --> 01:28:17,480 Speaker 1: I think a lot of illegal analysts think that Republicans 1726 01:28:17,479 --> 01:28:20,760 Speaker 1: may have a winning argument there. The key question for 1727 01:28:20,800 --> 01:28:22,960 Speaker 1: Republicans is going to be can they prove or find 1728 01:28:23,000 --> 01:28:25,840 Speaker 1: someone withstanding someone who can bring the case forward and 1729 01:28:25,880 --> 01:28:28,800 Speaker 1: say that they are legitimately adversely affected by this and 1730 01:28:28,840 --> 01:28:31,400 Speaker 1: get the case heard by the courts. That might actually 1731 01:28:31,400 --> 01:28:34,280 Speaker 1: be the bigger obstacle to getting this overturned for Republicans, 1732 01:28:34,720 --> 01:28:37,120 Speaker 1: And obviously we should talk about the consequences for tens 1733 01:28:37,120 --> 01:28:39,519 Speaker 1: of millions of people who would be affected. Yeah, that's 1734 01:28:39,640 --> 01:28:42,200 Speaker 1: the thing I was reading, which is that, as Ted 1735 01:28:42,280 --> 01:28:44,479 Speaker 1: Cruz pointed out, you need to kind of have it 1736 01:28:44,640 --> 01:28:47,960 Speaker 1: just explained. You need a student loan debt servicer who's 1737 01:28:48,040 --> 01:28:51,440 Speaker 1: not for the government, like who exactly would the plaintiff 1738 01:28:51,479 --> 01:28:55,040 Speaker 1: be in the case. So this is exactly the right question, 1739 01:28:55,120 --> 01:28:58,120 Speaker 1: because according to the Republicans I've talked to, they're sort 1740 01:28:58,120 --> 01:29:00,760 Speaker 1: of searching high and low for the ight person that 1741 01:29:00,800 --> 01:29:05,240 Speaker 1: could be this person withstanding their dream plaintiff. And the 1742 01:29:05,280 --> 01:29:07,519 Speaker 1: reason they're doing that is because it's actually harder than 1743 01:29:07,520 --> 01:29:09,360 Speaker 1: you think to bring a case a legend with the 1744 01:29:09,360 --> 01:29:12,720 Speaker 1: president has violated the Constitution. As I said, you need 1745 01:29:12,760 --> 01:29:15,240 Speaker 1: this this plaintiff to get the course to hear the case. 1746 01:29:15,680 --> 01:29:18,439 Speaker 1: It's pretty clearly established, and Ted Cruz has admitted this 1747 01:29:19,040 --> 01:29:22,240 Speaker 1: or acknowledged this. I should say that that someone who's 1748 01:29:22,240 --> 01:29:25,599 Speaker 1: a tax payer, or someone who didn't get their student 1749 01:29:25,600 --> 01:29:28,599 Speaker 1: loans forgiven, or someone who never took out student loans, 1750 01:29:29,280 --> 01:29:31,920 Speaker 1: the courts are pretty unlikely to look at that as 1751 01:29:32,000 --> 01:29:34,479 Speaker 1: a justification for bringing standing, and so you need someone 1752 01:29:34,760 --> 01:29:37,000 Speaker 1: who shows that they were adversely harmed and not in 1753 01:29:37,040 --> 01:29:40,360 Speaker 1: this sort of general oh maybe my taxes will go 1754 01:29:40,520 --> 01:29:43,920 Speaker 1: up in some vague indirect way, or maybe you know, 1755 01:29:44,000 --> 01:29:47,080 Speaker 1: I should have qualified this but I didn't, or even 1756 01:29:47,160 --> 01:29:49,200 Speaker 1: you know. The other argument that Ted Cruz had sort 1757 01:29:49,240 --> 01:29:52,479 Speaker 1: of been flirting with was maybe we can find someone 1758 01:29:52,479 --> 01:29:55,560 Speaker 1: who's a current student, didn't qualify for student debt forgiveness, 1759 01:29:55,800 --> 01:29:58,160 Speaker 1: but their tuition costs, you know, one could argue will 1760 01:29:58,200 --> 01:30:00,839 Speaker 1: go up as a result of the cancelation. That's a plaintiff. 1761 01:30:00,840 --> 01:30:02,720 Speaker 1: And Cruise has sort of said that he doesn't really 1762 01:30:02,760 --> 01:30:04,600 Speaker 1: think that that option is going to work either. And 1763 01:30:04,640 --> 01:30:07,320 Speaker 1: so what Cruise is now suggesting, and he said that 1764 01:30:07,360 --> 01:30:10,920 Speaker 1: he spoke to a top conservative legal analyst who's likely 1765 01:30:10,960 --> 01:30:13,120 Speaker 1: to argue this in front of the Supreme Court is 1766 01:30:13,160 --> 01:30:15,800 Speaker 1: that they'll look for a student learned loan service or 1767 01:30:15,920 --> 01:30:17,559 Speaker 1: The problem with that, as you were alluding to, is 1768 01:30:17,600 --> 01:30:20,439 Speaker 1: that the student loan servicers have lots of business and 1769 01:30:20,479 --> 01:30:22,439 Speaker 1: from the federal government. So you need one of them 1770 01:30:22,720 --> 01:30:25,400 Speaker 1: to take the political risk or the financial risk of 1771 01:30:25,400 --> 01:30:27,920 Speaker 1: themselves of saying this fight. You know, we're going to 1772 01:30:28,000 --> 01:30:30,120 Speaker 1: lose so much business from this, but we're willing to 1773 01:30:30,640 --> 01:30:33,960 Speaker 1: potentially directly antagonize our main clients, and that is going 1774 01:30:34,000 --> 01:30:36,519 Speaker 1: to be you know, I think they'll find someone, but 1775 01:30:36,560 --> 01:30:39,559 Speaker 1: that's that's the challenge for the conservative legal movement right now. 1776 01:30:39,920 --> 01:30:42,439 Speaker 1: Got it. That's all very interesting. Well to your point 1777 01:30:42,560 --> 01:30:45,559 Speaker 1: about how Republicans feel like they might have a decent 1778 01:30:45,640 --> 01:30:49,880 Speaker 1: case here. You spoke with an analyst who is in 1779 01:30:49,920 --> 01:30:53,599 Speaker 1: support of student debt cancelation, who said, if they keep 1780 01:30:53,600 --> 01:30:56,599 Speaker 1: going with this argument, with the particular justification that they 1781 01:30:56,760 --> 01:31:01,120 Speaker 1: use to go ahead with student let student loan debt 1782 01:31:01,160 --> 01:31:04,000 Speaker 1: relief and this interpretation of the statute is likely they 1783 01:31:04,040 --> 01:31:06,599 Speaker 1: will lose sixty three. It's possible they could lose by 1784 01:31:06,600 --> 01:31:09,960 Speaker 1: more than sixty three. I foresee this good policy being 1785 01:31:10,040 --> 01:31:13,920 Speaker 1: rightly struck down by the courts on legal terms. Why 1786 01:31:13,960 --> 01:31:18,599 Speaker 1: did they use this two thousand and three statute rather 1787 01:31:18,640 --> 01:31:22,000 Speaker 1: than using the statutes that have used previously by presidents 1788 01:31:22,040 --> 01:31:25,519 Speaker 1: to justify all manner of student loan debt relief, you know, 1789 01:31:25,600 --> 01:31:28,439 Speaker 1: albeit more targeted student loan debt relief. But why did 1790 01:31:28,439 --> 01:31:31,880 Speaker 1: they decide to use this particular justification and are they 1791 01:31:31,880 --> 01:31:34,040 Speaker 1: sort of locked into that or can they change their 1792 01:31:34,080 --> 01:31:38,559 Speaker 1: mind and come up with a different legal justification. It's 1793 01:31:38,560 --> 01:31:41,759 Speaker 1: a great question. So the professor you're alluding to, Professor 1794 01:31:41,880 --> 01:31:44,559 Speaker 1: Jed Sugarman, which whose name just stuck with me because 1795 01:31:44,560 --> 01:31:47,439 Speaker 1: it's quite colorful, club he was making, Yeah, he was 1796 01:31:47,479 --> 01:31:50,439 Speaker 1: making the point that sort of what you were explaining 1797 01:31:50,479 --> 01:31:53,679 Speaker 1: in nineteen sixty five Congress passed the law that gave 1798 01:31:53,920 --> 01:31:57,160 Speaker 1: the president lots of authority over student loans, and he's saying, 1799 01:31:57,520 --> 01:31:59,519 Speaker 1: if this two thousand and three law can be challenged 1800 01:31:59,520 --> 01:32:03,000 Speaker 1: on the grounds that it's, you know, not really an 1801 01:32:03,000 --> 01:32:05,200 Speaker 1: emergency anymore, why didn't the White House just cite this 1802 01:32:05,280 --> 01:32:07,799 Speaker 1: nineteen sixty five law that gives the president brought authority 1803 01:32:07,960 --> 01:32:11,040 Speaker 1: and is not clearly based in post nine eleven statute. 1804 01:32:11,320 --> 01:32:14,559 Speaker 1: And the speculation among the legal analysts I've talked to 1805 01:32:14,680 --> 01:32:18,479 Speaker 1: is that someone in the DOJ found some reason. There's 1806 01:32:18,479 --> 01:32:20,320 Speaker 1: a bit of a mystery that I haven't quite gotten 1807 01:32:20,360 --> 01:32:22,479 Speaker 1: to the bottom of that someone in the DOJ or 1808 01:32:22,479 --> 01:32:25,639 Speaker 1: the DOE in the Department of Education has discovered that 1809 01:32:25,680 --> 01:32:28,280 Speaker 1: the courts are not likely to look favorably on the 1810 01:32:28,320 --> 01:32:31,679 Speaker 1: citation of that nineteen sixty five law because it really 1811 01:32:31,720 --> 01:32:35,599 Speaker 1: isn't explicable. And what Sugarman another legal analysts are saying 1812 01:32:35,680 --> 01:32:38,280 Speaker 1: is the White House still has time that the Department 1813 01:32:38,280 --> 01:32:40,400 Speaker 1: of Education hasn't put out its final guidance yet, this 1814 01:32:40,400 --> 01:32:42,400 Speaker 1: has not really been begun moving, and the White House 1815 01:32:42,400 --> 01:32:44,639 Speaker 1: could still come out and say, you know, this two 1816 01:32:44,640 --> 01:32:46,679 Speaker 1: thousand and three law is important, but we should also 1817 01:32:46,840 --> 01:32:48,680 Speaker 1: keep in mind that even if it was invalidated on 1818 01:32:48,720 --> 01:32:50,840 Speaker 1: those grounds, there's a nineteen sixty five law that we 1819 01:32:50,840 --> 01:32:53,960 Speaker 1: can cite and we should go with that. We haven't 1820 01:32:54,000 --> 01:32:56,760 Speaker 1: heard that yet. I spoke to Lawrence Tribe, who's a 1821 01:32:56,800 --> 01:32:59,560 Speaker 1: Harvard law professor that the White House talks to a lot, 1822 01:33:00,120 --> 01:33:01,880 Speaker 1: so said, you know, we should also just throw out 1823 01:33:01,880 --> 01:33:04,760 Speaker 1: this nineteen sixty five argument, because why not? But the 1824 01:33:04,760 --> 01:33:06,920 Speaker 1: fact that they haven't. You know, there are really smart 1825 01:33:06,960 --> 01:33:08,960 Speaker 1: and a huge team of people working at the DOJ, 1826 01:33:09,200 --> 01:33:11,920 Speaker 1: and it's kind of inexplicable to me that they would 1827 01:33:11,960 --> 01:33:14,360 Speaker 1: just like miss this. You know, I could find it, 1828 01:33:14,400 --> 01:33:17,640 Speaker 1: and I don't know anything about the law, so you know, 1829 01:33:18,200 --> 01:33:21,120 Speaker 1: I'm sure there's some there's some justification there. So then 1830 01:33:21,240 --> 01:33:23,560 Speaker 1: my little last question then is the White House do 1831 01:33:23,640 --> 01:33:25,640 Speaker 1: they see this as a threat? Were they aware of it? 1832 01:33:25,760 --> 01:33:28,479 Speaker 1: Are they preparing for it? Like? How much is this 1833 01:33:28,680 --> 01:33:31,599 Speaker 1: on their radar for something they consider a major achievement 1834 01:33:31,640 --> 01:33:35,479 Speaker 1: on their part? Well, it's it's a tough thing to 1835 01:33:35,479 --> 01:33:38,400 Speaker 1: answer because some of the legal analysts I was talking 1836 01:33:38,400 --> 01:33:41,000 Speaker 1: to were saying that if you look at Biden's speech, 1837 01:33:41,160 --> 01:33:43,080 Speaker 1: what he gave when he was introducing the student debt, 1838 01:33:43,160 --> 01:33:45,960 Speaker 1: the student that forgiveness plan. There's basically, I think, almost 1839 01:33:46,000 --> 01:33:49,160 Speaker 1: no mention of the idea that this is an emergency measure. 1840 01:33:49,720 --> 01:33:53,559 Speaker 1: I mean, he talked about the crisis and student loans 1841 01:33:53,600 --> 01:33:56,200 Speaker 1: and higher education, how broken the financing is, but he 1842 01:33:56,280 --> 01:33:59,320 Speaker 1: never really said which the legal memo the White House 1843 01:33:59,360 --> 01:34:02,400 Speaker 1: release said that this is partially motivated by the COVID 1844 01:34:02,439 --> 01:34:06,160 Speaker 1: crisis and that this is an extraordinary economic circumstance, which, 1845 01:34:06,160 --> 01:34:07,559 Speaker 1: of course the White House doesn't want to go out 1846 01:34:07,600 --> 01:34:09,760 Speaker 1: there and say we need to do this because the 1847 01:34:09,800 --> 01:34:12,080 Speaker 1: economy is a nightmare and people need help. He wants 1848 01:34:12,160 --> 01:34:15,880 Speaker 1: to say we're taking corrective action to this long running 1849 01:34:15,880 --> 01:34:18,519 Speaker 1: structural issue in the economy. But that might be sort 1850 01:34:18,560 --> 01:34:21,160 Speaker 1: of aout odds with the legal argument that his attorneys 1851 01:34:21,160 --> 01:34:22,080 Speaker 1: are going to have to make in front of the 1852 01:34:22,080 --> 01:34:24,679 Speaker 1: Supreme Court. And the conservatives I'm talking to are saying 1853 01:34:24,680 --> 01:34:26,840 Speaker 1: we're going to use Biden's words against him and say 1854 01:34:27,120 --> 01:34:30,920 Speaker 1: the President never talked about this as a COVID emergency 1855 01:34:30,960 --> 01:34:33,360 Speaker 1: economic measure. He talked about it as sort of long 1856 01:34:33,479 --> 01:34:37,679 Speaker 1: term social policy goals. Do Republicans see a political risk 1857 01:34:37,720 --> 01:34:42,360 Speaker 1: here because you're talking about taking away a very significant 1858 01:34:42,360 --> 01:34:46,519 Speaker 1: and potentially transformative benefit from literally tens of millions of people. 1859 01:34:46,560 --> 01:34:49,280 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm sure you spoke with people who will 1860 01:34:49,360 --> 01:34:51,719 Speaker 1: be impacted by this in a positive way. I've certainly 1861 01:34:51,720 --> 01:34:54,439 Speaker 1: read the accounts that you and other reporters have been 1862 01:34:54,439 --> 01:34:57,280 Speaker 1: sharing and people who are saying, this is literally going 1863 01:34:57,320 --> 01:34:59,160 Speaker 1: to change my life. This is going to enable me 1864 01:34:59,240 --> 01:35:01,160 Speaker 1: to be able to get on the road towards home 1865 01:35:01,200 --> 01:35:03,880 Speaker 1: ownership or be able to start a business. This completely 1866 01:35:03,960 --> 01:35:07,040 Speaker 1: changes how I was looking at the near term and 1867 01:35:07,040 --> 01:35:10,280 Speaker 1: the mid term in the future for myself. That's a 1868 01:35:10,439 --> 01:35:14,479 Speaker 1: very difficult position to be in politically to then say Nope, 1869 01:35:14,680 --> 01:35:16,720 Speaker 1: we don't like it. We're going to fight tooth and 1870 01:35:16,800 --> 01:35:19,160 Speaker 1: nail to take it away from you. So is are 1871 01:35:19,160 --> 01:35:21,559 Speaker 1: there any voices on the Republican side that are saying, 1872 01:35:21,680 --> 01:35:26,920 Speaker 1: you know, guys, maybe we should just let this one go. No, 1873 01:35:27,080 --> 01:35:30,800 Speaker 1: I have not heard a single Republican say, so, what's 1874 01:35:30,840 --> 01:35:34,280 Speaker 1: their political ridaculus? I mean, I think that's like a 1875 01:35:34,400 --> 01:35:38,479 Speaker 1: genuine ideological conviction here. I mean, I know, obviously, like 1876 01:35:38,520 --> 01:35:41,360 Speaker 1: politics is everything in this town, but I think there's 1877 01:35:41,400 --> 01:35:44,840 Speaker 1: like a real revulsion to the premise of this policy. 1878 01:35:45,080 --> 01:35:47,040 Speaker 1: I don't know if you guys should have curious for 1879 01:35:47,080 --> 01:35:51,759 Speaker 1: your take, but the intensity of emotions that the student 1880 01:35:51,800 --> 01:35:56,559 Speaker 1: loan fight provokes is on part with anything I've ever covered, 1881 01:35:56,600 --> 01:35:59,360 Speaker 1: from people who feel like this is you know, not 1882 01:35:59,439 --> 01:36:01,920 Speaker 1: nearly enough, to people who say that this is a 1883 01:36:01,960 --> 01:36:04,519 Speaker 1: slap in the face of hardworking Americans. This is just 1884 01:36:05,240 --> 01:36:10,160 Speaker 1: such a fraud issue, and I think Republicans are are 1885 01:36:10,240 --> 01:36:13,640 Speaker 1: really committed to the idea that you know, that this 1886 01:36:13,800 --> 01:36:17,040 Speaker 1: is a bailout for people who don't deserve it, and 1887 01:36:17,040 --> 01:36:19,360 Speaker 1: and you know, the polling from what I can tell, 1888 01:36:19,520 --> 01:36:21,880 Speaker 1: has been pretty good for the Democrats, like Biden has 1889 01:36:21,880 --> 01:36:24,840 Speaker 1: had a really serious and meaningful bomb with young voters 1890 01:36:24,880 --> 01:36:27,240 Speaker 1: since this was announced. Maybe there's other things that are 1891 01:36:27,520 --> 01:36:29,280 Speaker 1: are part of that, but that's that's a that's a 1892 01:36:29,320 --> 01:36:31,800 Speaker 1: big change that the White House is really excited about, 1893 01:36:32,080 --> 01:36:34,280 Speaker 1: and the Republicans willing to fight this. I think they 1894 01:36:34,320 --> 01:36:38,040 Speaker 1: just really don't like doing debt cancellation, and they're hearing 1895 01:36:38,040 --> 01:36:40,960 Speaker 1: from people who are also really really pissed off about it. 1896 01:36:41,000 --> 01:36:43,439 Speaker 1: And I'm sure the comments on this YouTube video will 1897 01:36:43,479 --> 01:36:46,639 Speaker 1: be incredibly split because that's how how this has gone. 1898 01:36:46,680 --> 01:36:51,439 Speaker 1: So that yeah, for sure, for sure. I mean I 1899 01:36:51,439 --> 01:36:56,320 Speaker 1: would say politically, you're always very kind to be honestly, well, 1900 01:36:56,400 --> 01:36:58,280 Speaker 1: I mean you see it in like so I watch 1901 01:36:58,400 --> 01:37:00,479 Speaker 1: like the way Sean Hannity was talking about this issue, 1902 01:37:00,520 --> 01:37:02,320 Speaker 1: for example, and they really see it as like a 1903 01:37:02,400 --> 01:37:06,280 Speaker 1: moral issue, you know, and so it does cut at 1904 01:37:06,280 --> 01:37:09,479 Speaker 1: this deep level. Politically, I always think the people who 1905 01:37:09,479 --> 01:37:12,000 Speaker 1: are actually gaining the benefit and now have something really 1906 01:37:12,040 --> 01:37:14,559 Speaker 1: directly to lose. Obviously, they have a much more vested 1907 01:37:14,560 --> 01:37:17,400 Speaker 1: stake than people who have an ideology, and they sort 1908 01:37:17,400 --> 01:37:19,840 Speaker 1: of like theoretically think maybe sometime in the future of 1909 01:37:19,840 --> 01:37:22,400 Speaker 1: my taxes could be increased. That's why you see something 1910 01:37:22,439 --> 01:37:25,640 Speaker 1: like social Security as being so difficult, and why Republicans 1911 01:37:25,640 --> 01:37:27,719 Speaker 1: have like tripped on that land mind a million times 1912 01:37:27,720 --> 01:37:30,719 Speaker 1: and still seem to want to continue down that path 1913 01:37:31,400 --> 01:37:34,040 Speaker 1: even though they fail over and over again. So yeah, 1914 01:37:34,080 --> 01:37:36,559 Speaker 1: I think politically at this point, it's hard to deny 1915 01:37:36,640 --> 01:37:39,679 Speaker 1: the evidence that for young voters this was a huge 1916 01:37:39,880 --> 01:37:43,040 Speaker 1: boon for Biden. Their approval rating of him has like 1917 01:37:43,280 --> 01:37:47,120 Speaker 1: completely flipped. He was dramatically underwater. Now he has a 1918 01:37:47,160 --> 01:37:51,160 Speaker 1: positive favorable rating with youngest co hearts of voters, as 1919 01:37:51,200 --> 01:37:53,920 Speaker 1: I've seen in the latest polls. So for Democrats, I 1920 01:37:53,920 --> 01:37:58,599 Speaker 1: think this has definitely been net positive thus far, and 1921 01:37:58,640 --> 01:38:01,439 Speaker 1: then Republicans have the you know, they have their own 1922 01:38:01,479 --> 01:38:04,559 Speaker 1: constituencies that they're responding to that are very powerful in 1923 01:38:04,600 --> 01:38:07,200 Speaker 1: Republican primaries, for example, and really have their ears or 1924 01:38:07,240 --> 01:38:09,519 Speaker 1: maybe in the donor set who were very very upset 1925 01:38:09,560 --> 01:38:12,320 Speaker 1: and may push them in this direction, even though again 1926 01:38:12,360 --> 01:38:14,840 Speaker 1: I think it's I think it's very politically perilous for 1927 01:38:14,840 --> 01:38:16,840 Speaker 1: Republicans to be in the business of trying to strip 1928 01:38:16,920 --> 01:38:20,360 Speaker 1: what is a significant and transformative benefit for tens of 1929 01:38:20,520 --> 01:38:23,160 Speaker 1: millions of Americans. Yeah, it's going to be I don't 1930 01:38:23,120 --> 01:38:25,280 Speaker 1: want Jeff, I'll go ahead. Sorry, I just I don't 1931 01:38:25,280 --> 01:38:27,320 Speaker 1: want to overstate this, but I because I think, you know, 1932 01:38:27,400 --> 01:38:29,479 Speaker 1: this is only one policy, it's kind of limited in 1933 01:38:29,520 --> 01:38:32,639 Speaker 1: some ways. But I think we're seeing the at least 1934 01:38:32,680 --> 01:38:37,040 Speaker 1: attempt of you know, during the Clinton you know era, 1935 01:38:37,200 --> 01:38:41,200 Speaker 1: and when Hillary ran for president, there was sort of 1936 01:38:41,200 --> 01:38:42,919 Speaker 1: a lack of attention. I think a lot of Democrats 1937 01:38:42,920 --> 01:38:46,880 Speaker 1: felt to delivering tangible, material benefits for people and seeing 1938 01:38:46,880 --> 01:38:51,160 Speaker 1: if that would lead to more political success. And this 1939 01:38:51,240 --> 01:38:54,799 Speaker 1: could be a sort of a test case for that premise. Yeah, indeed, 1940 01:38:55,120 --> 01:38:57,479 Speaker 1: indeed a very interesting one to watch. Jeff, Thank you 1941 01:38:57,479 --> 01:38:59,120 Speaker 1: so much for bringing down. Great to see my friend. 1942 01:38:59,160 --> 01:39:01,719 Speaker 1: Thanks man, Thank you guys us scraping them our pleasure. 1943 01:39:02,880 --> 01:39:04,760 Speaker 1: Thank you guys so much for watching. Really appreciate it. 1944 01:39:04,760 --> 01:39:06,760 Speaker 1: Take advantage of the discount, go ahead and buy your 1945 01:39:06,800 --> 01:39:08,720 Speaker 1: Chicago tickets. It's all going to be down there in 1946 01:39:08,760 --> 01:39:11,280 Speaker 1: the link. We deeply appreciate all of your support and 1947 01:39:11,320 --> 01:39:31,920 Speaker 1: we will see you all on Thursday. See y'all Thursday,