WEBVTT - TechStuff Classic: The Great Google Car Crash of 2016

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to tech Stuff, a production from iHeartRadio. Hey there,

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<v Speaker 1>and welcome to tech Stuff. I'm your host Jonathan Strickland.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm an executive producer with iHeartRadio and how the Tech Area.

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<v Speaker 1>It's time for another classic episode of tech Stuff. This

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<v Speaker 1>one is titled the Great Google Car Crash of twenty sixteen.

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<v Speaker 1>Scott Benjamin joined the show to talk about this. This

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<v Speaker 1>was one of those news stories that was a pretty

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<v Speaker 1>big deal in twenty sixteen. The episode originally published on

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<v Speaker 1>April twenty seventh, twenty sixteen. And you know autonomous cars,

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<v Speaker 1>well really that we don't have a truly autonomous car yet,

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<v Speaker 1>but it was kind of a new concept, like new

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<v Speaker 1>in the sense that we hadn't really seen too many

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<v Speaker 1>of them out on actual street back in twenty sixteen.

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<v Speaker 1>So Google getting into a little car accident was big news. Now. Obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>in the years since, we have had a lot more

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<v Speaker 1>accidents involving autonomous vehicles or semi autonomous vehicles, so things

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<v Speaker 1>have definitely continued to be complicated and sometimes tragic, but

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<v Speaker 1>this one was more of an interesting, lighthearted look at

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<v Speaker 1>why an autonomous car might get into an accident. So

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<v Speaker 1>sit back and enjoy this episode from twenty sixteen. We're

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<v Speaker 1>talking today about a peculiar event, something that happened in

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<v Speaker 1>February twenty sixteen, and it's just taken me this long

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<v Speaker 1>to finally get around and addressing it. You might have

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<v Speaker 1>heard in previous episodes of Tech Stuff about how I

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<v Speaker 1>would champion the fact that Google with their self driving

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<v Speaker 1>cars had had enormous success, flawless. You might argue, success

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<v Speaker 1>something like one point four to five million miles driven

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<v Speaker 1>without a single accident caused by the autonomous system. That

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<v Speaker 1>there had been about fourteen or so accidents, but all

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<v Speaker 1>of those were either the fault of a person manually

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<v Speaker 1>driving the car in manual mode or another driver colliding

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<v Speaker 1>with the autonomous car, but never the fallow the autonomous

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<v Speaker 1>car itself. It was a perfect system until February twenty sixteen. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and that is the day of what I'll caohol, And

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<v Speaker 1>I really don't mean to over dramaticize this at all,

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<v Speaker 1>So maybe I'm titling this episode. I think maybe sure

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<v Speaker 1>we should call this the Saint Valentine's Day Google self

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<v Speaker 1>driving Car Massacre. Oh, that's an excellent title, and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>all for it. Definitely not overly dramatic in any way. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean it's it's also funny because we're recording this

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<v Speaker 1>the week after I've gotten back from south By Southwest

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<v Speaker 1>and this was a topic that was discussed heavily at

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<v Speaker 1>south By Southwest because till this incident, it was a

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<v Speaker 1>very easy sell to say autonomous cars are the way

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<v Speaker 1>to go. And then this little accident happened, and and

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<v Speaker 1>it it wasn't terrible. We'll get into the details of

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<v Speaker 1>the accident, but this little accident happened and suddenly it

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<v Speaker 1>sounded like Google's autonomous car had caused an enormous pile

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<v Speaker 1>up on the highway. Everyone was much more cautious. So

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<v Speaker 1>you're maybe not buying my alternate title. Then, is that

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<v Speaker 1>what you're saying? What's your alternate title? No, no, that

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<v Speaker 1>I'm totally no. I think it is a maskacer, but

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's a massacer in the sense of the

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<v Speaker 1>public perception of autonomous cars. I see, Okay, yeah, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>thinking of from a pr st, I could I could

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<v Speaker 1>take this opportunity to gloat and say, ah, they're not

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<v Speaker 1>as infallible as you thought they're They're not perfect, but

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<v Speaker 1>but I'm going to take a different stance here in

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<v Speaker 1>this in this podcast, And and I think that as

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<v Speaker 1>we as we talk through this, we're going to realize

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<v Speaker 1>that they've been held to a much higher standard than

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<v Speaker 1>they probably need to be right. And I know that's

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<v Speaker 1>that's tough to to take, you know, when you when

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<v Speaker 1>you just hear it that way, But listen to our

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<v Speaker 1>argument back and forth about this, and and understand that

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<v Speaker 1>they're being held to perfection when they probably shouldn't be.

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<v Speaker 1>When humans, I mean, we're not perfect, of course, right,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a vast m a chasm between what the standards

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<v Speaker 1>that they're held to versus the standard that human test

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<v Speaker 1>drivers are held too. Sure, yeah, if you look at

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<v Speaker 1>if you look at the standard driving test that you

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<v Speaker 1>have to pass before you get a license, I would

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<v Speaker 1>argue most autonomous cars could likely pass such a test

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<v Speaker 1>as close to flawlessly as you can get. But you

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<v Speaker 1>don't have to be flawless when you take a driver's test.

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<v Speaker 1>There's room for you to not completely do something perfectly,

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<v Speaker 1>Like if your parallel parking isn't exactly right, you're going

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<v Speaker 1>to get points deducted from your total, but you may

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<v Speaker 1>still be you know, high enough, score high enough so

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<v Speaker 1>that you could pass the full driver's test. Exactly. You

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<v Speaker 1>knock over cone. It's not really a big deal. But

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<v Speaker 1>an autonomous car knocks over a cone, everybody points at

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<v Speaker 1>it and says, oh, we'll get that thing. It's it's

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<v Speaker 1>pilot junk. Yeah, exactly. It's interesting that you point that

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<v Speaker 1>out too, because that ties into a different discussion. I

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<v Speaker 1>saw it south by Southwest that wasn't specifically about autonomous cars.

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<v Speaker 1>It was about robots. So this is a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>of a tangent, but it goes to illustrate the point

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<v Speaker 1>you just made. I love tangents, So this h pammel

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<v Speaker 1>about robots. There was a woman, Leila Takayama, who used

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<v Speaker 1>to work for Google X, but not in the autonomous

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<v Speaker 1>car division. She talked about how she ran an experiment.

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<v Speaker 1>She got a guy from Pixar to do a series

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<v Speaker 1>of very simple animations to show people the interactions between

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<v Speaker 1>a robot and a person and then to judge which

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<v Speaker 1>robot is considered intelligent versus not intelligent. And the whole

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<v Speaker 1>point of this was to show the differences between succeeding

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<v Speaker 1>and failing, but giving no indication that the robot understands

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<v Speaker 1>it succeeded or failed, or building in expressions for the

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<v Speaker 1>robot to follow a success or failure to indicate it

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<v Speaker 1>quote unquote understands what happened. And it was fascinating because

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<v Speaker 1>they showed a very simple experiment with a robot trying

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<v Speaker 1>to open the door. And again, this is an animation,

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<v Speaker 1>so there was different scenarios. There's one where the robot

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<v Speaker 1>opens the door and the door opens and then the

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<v Speaker 1>robot just sits there and it's done because it's done

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<v Speaker 1>what it was supposed to do. There's one where the

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<v Speaker 1>robot opens the door and then kind of perks up, like, oh,

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<v Speaker 1>I did what I wanted to do. There was one

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<v Speaker 1>where the robot fails to open the door and then

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<v Speaker 1>does nothing, and then there was one where the robot

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<v Speaker 1>fails to open the door and then slumps down a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit as if to say, oh, I'm disappointed I

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<v Speaker 1>didn't succeed. They then asked able to judge which robots

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<v Speaker 1>they thought were the most intelligent, and everyone said the

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<v Speaker 1>robot that failed but showed disappointment was more intelligent than

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<v Speaker 1>the robot that succeeded but didn't show any expression at all.

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<v Speaker 1>No kidding, And when you think about that again. It's

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<v Speaker 1>holding robots to a standard that doesn't necessarily apply to

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<v Speaker 1>them because of the human element this human robot interaction.

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<v Speaker 1>We're holding autonomous cars to a similar standard that perhaps

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<v Speaker 1>is not fair. We're holding robots to a standard that's

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<v Speaker 1>not fair. But that means that people who are designing

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<v Speaker 1>autonomous cars and people who are designing robots have to

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<v Speaker 1>take that into consideration because that's the way humans are. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>this is interesting because you're you're mentioning specifically imitating human behavior. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>and this comes up in an article that I read

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<v Speaker 1>in let's see, it was in the Verge. Yes, and

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<v Speaker 1>the Verge article you might have read the same thing.

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<v Speaker 1>An excellent article. Yeah, it really is. And a person

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<v Speaker 1>by the name of Jennifer Harun. She's the head of

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<v Speaker 1>business operations for Google self driving project. And by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>let's come back to the details of the accident and

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<v Speaker 1>just a moment. Sure, we'll describe what happened, but she

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<v Speaker 1>says that, well, you know what, maybe I need to

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<v Speaker 1>back this up just a second here. How about this,

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<v Speaker 1>Let's describe the accident and then we'll talk about what

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<v Speaker 1>she said, because it plays perfectly into it. So in

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<v Speaker 1>helping understand what happened. So here's here's how you can

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<v Speaker 1>imagine it. All right, You've got an intersection in Mountain View, California,

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<v Speaker 1>which is where Google's headquarters is located, and you've got

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<v Speaker 1>the Google self driving car. Correct me if I get

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<v Speaker 1>any of this wrong, Scott, I'm going from memory. That's

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<v Speaker 1>all right, I'm doing mostly the same. It's so the

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<v Speaker 1>Google self driving cars in the right lane and at

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<v Speaker 1>once it's planning on making a right turn at this intersection. Yes, Now,

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<v Speaker 1>at the corner of the intersection, there were some sandbags

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<v Speaker 1>that were a partial obstruction of the lane. Yeah, I

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<v Speaker 1>think you're blocking a sewer entry a great maybe or something. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>So the Google car detected that there was an obstruction,

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<v Speaker 1>and so it had to plan an alternate way to

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<v Speaker 1>make its right turn. It still wanted to follow the

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<v Speaker 1>route that it had planned, so the change would have

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<v Speaker 1>been for it to kind of edge into the next lane,

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<v Speaker 1>over the next lane to the left before making a

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<v Speaker 1>right turn. Behind the Google car, approaching at a blistering

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<v Speaker 1>speed of fifteen miles per hour was a bus, and

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<v Speaker 1>so the Google car recognized there was a bus coming.

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<v Speaker 1>He was moving at a very slow speed at two

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<v Speaker 1>miles per hour. The Google Car said, well, based upon

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<v Speaker 1>my programming, what I should expect happen is that the

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<v Speaker 1>bus will slow down, allow me to move through. I'll

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<v Speaker 1>clear the intersection, the bus will continue. What actually happened

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<v Speaker 1>was the Google Car made the move into the lane,

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<v Speaker 1>the bus continued, and there was a low speed collision

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<v Speaker 1>and there were no injuries. No one was hurt. There was,

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<v Speaker 1>in fact a driver behind the wheel of the Google Car.

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<v Speaker 1>It's just the driver wasn't in control. The autonomous system

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<v Speaker 1>was in control. And some people might say, well, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the bus driver just didn't let the car in. But

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<v Speaker 1>Google actually said this is important. Google came out and said,

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<v Speaker 1>we accept responsibility for this. This is something that it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's valuable that this information has come to light because

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<v Speaker 1>it means that we need to revisit this particular part

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<v Speaker 1>of the autonomous car programming. Now, I thought that was

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<v Speaker 1>really interesting. First of all, I have never heard of

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<v Speaker 1>a company accepting responsibility for something so fast in my life. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>they did, and they didn't. I mean, there's a couple

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<v Speaker 1>of versions of this. Now you got the details of

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<v Speaker 1>the accident correct, Although I did hear and this this

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<v Speaker 1>is a bit confusing. I didn't hear that the lanes

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<v Speaker 1>in this particular part of town are extremely wide, and

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<v Speaker 1>so what happened was the car kind of edged itself

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<v Speaker 1>over toward the curb. So it was I guess, mimicking

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<v Speaker 1>human behavior again. And I'll get to that in just

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<v Speaker 1>a minute. But um, you know, once this accident happened

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<v Speaker 1>and they said, you know, we do need to investigate this,

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<v Speaker 1>they did that to the tune of about thirty five

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<v Speaker 1>hundred new tests that they've now implemented since this accident

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<v Speaker 1>that said, we're going to watch for this. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>we need to understand a little more deeply that some

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<v Speaker 1>of these larger vehicles may have a different, more difficult

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<v Speaker 1>times stopping in traffic than a smaller vehicle will. And

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<v Speaker 1>and that's the reason why some of these bigger vehicles

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<v Speaker 1>like to continue on their path and think, well, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>someone behind me will let them in. Google did say

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<v Speaker 1>we were relying on an element of human kindness to

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<v Speaker 1>let us into that lane, and that's normally what happens.

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<v Speaker 1>It really does. Usually there's a back and forth or

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<v Speaker 1>you know, maybe there's always going to be that off

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<v Speaker 1>handed time where you know, someone does cut through and

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<v Speaker 1>they're just like they're like, no, I need to get

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<v Speaker 1>through that intersection in this light cycle, and no one

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<v Speaker 1>is going to stop me. Yeah, I mean I'm gonna

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<v Speaker 1>be ten feet ahead of you when all this happens, right,

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<v Speaker 1>That's where I you know, that's that's my goal. But

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<v Speaker 1>usually what happens is it's an alternating pattern and they

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<v Speaker 1>expected that to happen, and it didn't happen in this case.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is where it plays right into what Jennifer

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<v Speaker 1>had mentioned. Now, Jennifer Harun, who is the head of

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<v Speaker 1>business operations for Google self driving project, explained at and

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<v Speaker 1>I think she was at the south By Southwest conference

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<v Speaker 1>as well, and she said that the Lexus, it's a

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<v Speaker 1>Lexus vehicle that was outfitted with this gear so that

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<v Speaker 1>it struck the bus in part because it was imitating

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<v Speaker 1>human behavior. And that's I found that interesting that she

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<v Speaker 1>kind of is deferring the fault here and to say, well,

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<v Speaker 1>we were just imitating what we see on the streets

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<v Speaker 1>and that's that's kind of what happened. So well, it's

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<v Speaker 1>a it's a double deferral in a way, right, because

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<v Speaker 1>first they say we were counting on an element of

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<v Speaker 1>human kindness, which is already kind of a deferral in itself. Sure, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>you're you're essentially saying, well, we were we were thinking

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<v Speaker 1>that the bus driver would be a decent human being

0:12:31.360 --> 0:12:35.320
<v Speaker 1>and not a Lexus hating scumbag. That's I'm paraphrasing what

0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:38.040
<v Speaker 1>they said. Obviously I'm taking a little liberty. And then

0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:41.199
<v Speaker 1>in this one, you're saying, she's also saying, well, we

0:12:41.320 --> 0:12:44.160
<v Speaker 1>designed the car to behave the way we see actual

0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:47.679
<v Speaker 1>cars behaving on the road. So in both cases, you're

0:12:47.720 --> 0:12:50.560
<v Speaker 1>almost it's a little bit of backing away from taking

0:12:50.600 --> 0:12:53.960
<v Speaker 1>full responsibility exactly. And this imitating human behavior that she's

0:12:54.000 --> 0:12:57.079
<v Speaker 1>talking about was that they had recently taught the vehicles

0:12:57.080 --> 0:12:59.600
<v Speaker 1>to hug the right hand side of that lane when

0:12:59.600 --> 0:13:02.280
<v Speaker 1>they're making that right hand turn, and that that's when

0:13:02.320 --> 0:13:06.000
<v Speaker 1>it's encountered the sandbags that were unexpected. And so this

0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:07.800
<v Speaker 1>is what I find interesting is if it's a wide

0:13:07.880 --> 0:13:10.320
<v Speaker 1>lane and she's saying that it was hugging the right

0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:12.839
<v Speaker 1>hand side of that lane trying to make the turn

0:13:12.880 --> 0:13:15.640
<v Speaker 1>as most humans do, if it was in the center

0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:18.120
<v Speaker 1>of the lane, she's saying, if it had just behaved

0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:19.839
<v Speaker 1>as they normally would do it. You know that it

0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:21.679
<v Speaker 1>would be in the exact dead center of that lane.

0:13:22.000 --> 0:13:24.280
<v Speaker 1>The bus wouldn't have had the gap, I guess, and

0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:26.319
<v Speaker 1>try to try to make it through that gap, so

0:13:26.640 --> 0:13:28.880
<v Speaker 1>it would have just been behind the car. Never would

0:13:28.880 --> 0:13:31.680
<v Speaker 1>have happened. So she's saying, in effect, because we're trying

0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:33.800
<v Speaker 1>to make it mimic human behavior and we were hugging

0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:37.040
<v Speaker 1>that right side, that's why this accident happened. Maybe we

0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:39.240
<v Speaker 1>shouldn't have done that. But then again they come back

0:13:39.240 --> 0:13:43.120
<v Speaker 1>and say that that's absolutely necessary for them to mimic

0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:45.720
<v Speaker 1>human behavior, because if they don't that causes trouble as well.

0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:48.880
<v Speaker 1>There's brother issues that are right. If a vehicle, let's

0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:52.839
<v Speaker 1>say that it's an autonomous car heading toward an intersection,

0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:58.880
<v Speaker 1>the light goes from green to amber, and there's technically

0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:03.680
<v Speaker 1>enough space for the car to break safely and come

0:14:03.679 --> 0:14:07.280
<v Speaker 1>to a complete stop as the light turns red. Knowing

0:14:07.320 --> 0:14:11.760
<v Speaker 1>that most humans would just gun it, or at least

0:14:11.800 --> 0:14:13.640
<v Speaker 1>just continue at the same speed to go through the

0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:17.960
<v Speaker 1>intersection while it's still amber, you might want to think

0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:20.160
<v Speaker 1>about that when you're designing your autonomous car so that

0:14:20.200 --> 0:14:23.000
<v Speaker 1>you don't cause a pile up behind you, like you don't.

0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:27.440
<v Speaker 1>If the person directly behind the autonomous car expects the

0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:29.800
<v Speaker 1>car in front of them to continue through the intersection,

0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:32.800
<v Speaker 1>you could potentially get rear ended. Yeah, that happens a

0:14:32.880 --> 0:14:34.720
<v Speaker 1>thousand times around. I mean more than that. But it

0:14:34.720 --> 0:14:38.360
<v Speaker 1>happens all over the world, really, especially in Atlanta, where

0:14:38.360 --> 0:14:40.760
<v Speaker 1>the rule is if the light turns red, three cars

0:14:40.760 --> 0:14:43.720
<v Speaker 1>get to go through. It is so true, isn't it. Yeah,

0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:46.640
<v Speaker 1>it seems like once one goes through, two more following. Yeah,

0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:49.800
<v Speaker 1>it's crazy. Yeah, I've seen it happen in multiple places

0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:52.920
<v Speaker 1>around the city. There's some neighborhoods where it's worse. I'm

0:14:52.920 --> 0:14:55.920
<v Speaker 1>not going to name any names, buckhead, but I'm just saying, yeah,

0:14:56.080 --> 0:14:59.440
<v Speaker 1>never accelerate immediately on a green light anywhere in this area.

0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:02.240
<v Speaker 1>You can expect there's going to be that that odd

0:15:02.240 --> 0:15:04.040
<v Speaker 1>ball car that comes through every right, and there's gonna

0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:06.200
<v Speaker 1>be like a car that's been waiting to turn left

0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:08.040
<v Speaker 1>the whole time, and they say, I'm not waiting another

0:15:08.080 --> 0:15:10.320
<v Speaker 1>light cycle. I'm just going now, like even if they're

0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:12.600
<v Speaker 1>behind the stop line. Yeah, I'm sure, I'm sure it

0:15:12.600 --> 0:15:16.760
<v Speaker 1>happens everywhere's it's particularly bad in these congested areas. Yes,

0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:20.920
<v Speaker 1>So to your point, it is important to take those

0:15:20.960 --> 0:15:23.680
<v Speaker 1>things into consideration when designing the autonomous car. You don't

0:15:23.720 --> 0:15:26.480
<v Speaker 1>want an autonomous car to drive like an inconsiderate jerk

0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:28.720
<v Speaker 1>of a driver. But at the same time, you can't

0:15:28.720 --> 0:15:32.840
<v Speaker 1>have it be so clinically precise that it is standing

0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:35.560
<v Speaker 1>out from all the other drivers. The only way that

0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:37.640
<v Speaker 1>works is if you get to a point where you're

0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:40.560
<v Speaker 1>at a saturation point with autonomous cars on the road,

0:15:41.000 --> 0:15:43.760
<v Speaker 1>where then you can affect the behavior on a mass

0:15:43.800 --> 0:15:47.560
<v Speaker 1>scale across a fleet of cars and not have that

0:15:47.760 --> 0:15:53.040
<v Speaker 1>issue of human drivers having awful interactions with robotic drivers exactly.

0:15:53.080 --> 0:15:56.200
<v Speaker 1>Here's here's the way they stated these these spokesman stated.

0:15:56.400 --> 0:15:58.600
<v Speaker 1>They say, it's vital for us to develop advanced skills

0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:01.080
<v Speaker 1>that respect not just the letter of the traffic code,

0:16:01.440 --> 0:16:03.960
<v Speaker 1>but the spirit of the road. I think that's a

0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:05.400
<v Speaker 1>good way to put it. The spirit of the road.

0:16:05.400 --> 0:16:07.920
<v Speaker 1>I understand that. I completely get that when I read

0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:11.000
<v Speaker 1>it is that, yeah, there's little rules here and there

0:16:11.080 --> 0:16:14.280
<v Speaker 1>that we'd bend, but everybody bends them, and you expect

0:16:14.360 --> 0:16:16.600
<v Speaker 1>you you understand how other drivers are going to behave

0:16:16.600 --> 0:16:19.640
<v Speaker 1>in the same situation, and you expect that to happen, right,

0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:21.920
<v Speaker 1>and you behave in that way and it all works.

0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:25.040
<v Speaker 1>But when something comes in, a spoiler comes in and

0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:27.320
<v Speaker 1>it follows exactly to the letter of the log the

0:16:27.360 --> 0:16:30.520
<v Speaker 1>way that's supposed to happen, that person maybe you know

0:16:30.600 --> 0:16:34.240
<v Speaker 1>the standout right. Another great example of that in Atlanta

0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:37.240
<v Speaker 1>would be we have a couple of different highways that

0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:39.560
<v Speaker 1>run through the city and one that runs around the

0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:42.920
<v Speaker 1>city two eighty five, and two eighty five is often

0:16:43.000 --> 0:16:45.200
<v Speaker 1>thought of as the type of highway that if you

0:16:45.280 --> 0:16:47.480
<v Speaker 1>get on it, you have to speed. You cannot go

0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:49.480
<v Speaker 1>the speed limit on two eighty five. It's just too

0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:52.160
<v Speaker 1>dangerous because everyone else is going above the speed limit.

0:16:52.280 --> 0:16:56.040
<v Speaker 1>Massive truck traffic, Yeah, yeah, and there are enormous, enormous

0:16:56.080 --> 0:16:59.400
<v Speaker 1>semis rushing down there, and you don't want to get

0:16:59.600 --> 0:17:02.440
<v Speaker 1>you to be poking along when they come up behind you.

0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:06.119
<v Speaker 1>So again, an autonomous car would need to have that

0:17:06.280 --> 0:17:09.399
<v Speaker 1>information and take that into account, unless you got to

0:17:09.480 --> 0:17:11.720
<v Speaker 1>a point where you had so many autonomous vehicles on

0:17:11.760 --> 0:17:14.960
<v Speaker 1>the road that it was no longer a concern. Yeah,

0:17:14.960 --> 0:17:17.160
<v Speaker 1>And this is where we discussed this yesterday, because we're

0:17:17.200 --> 0:17:18.840
<v Speaker 1>talking off air about this just a little bit to

0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:22.520
<v Speaker 1>prep for today, and the idea would be that's kind

0:17:22.560 --> 0:17:25.720
<v Speaker 1>of like schooling, almost like fish schooling, and that the

0:17:25.800 --> 0:17:28.080
<v Speaker 1>cars know where the other one is at all times

0:17:28.119 --> 0:17:30.280
<v Speaker 1>and they can communicate between them. The problem is when

0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:32.920
<v Speaker 1>you throw in the human driver element into that mix,

0:17:33.520 --> 0:17:36.239
<v Speaker 1>or you know, if you have just one autonomous car

0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:39.040
<v Speaker 1>among all humans, that's the other problem. It's the other issue,

0:17:39.240 --> 0:17:41.719
<v Speaker 1>and right now, that's the battle that they're fighting right right.

0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:43.480
<v Speaker 1>So once we get to a point where there's that

0:17:43.880 --> 0:17:47.840
<v Speaker 1>tipping point one way or the other, then things will

0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:51.520
<v Speaker 1>be very different. But there's going to be some growing paints.

0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:53.840
<v Speaker 1>And this also leads into something that I talked about

0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:58.040
<v Speaker 1>earlier in twenty sixteen when I went to CEES Toyota

0:17:58.119 --> 0:18:03.880
<v Speaker 1>had their big AI discussion. You know, they're investing millions

0:18:03.920 --> 0:18:07.439
<v Speaker 1>of dollars in AI research for autonomous cars and beyond,

0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:10.600
<v Speaker 1>and one of the things they've talked about was how

0:18:11.480 --> 0:18:15.440
<v Speaker 1>autonomous cars in general are really really good at handling

0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:19.359
<v Speaker 1>all the mundane stuff that you would typically encounter on

0:18:19.480 --> 0:18:22.080
<v Speaker 1>a normal day driving from point A to point B.

0:18:22.920 --> 0:18:25.720
<v Speaker 1>What they are not good at is dealing with stuff

0:18:25.880 --> 0:18:29.440
<v Speaker 1>that's outside of that norm and the sandbags that we

0:18:29.560 --> 0:18:32.399
<v Speaker 1>talked about earlier. Would be a great example of that.

0:18:32.960 --> 0:18:36.760
<v Speaker 1>It's some form of obstruction that's partially blocking off part

0:18:36.760 --> 0:18:42.840
<v Speaker 1>of the road and that ends up causing a different scenario,

0:18:43.400 --> 0:18:48.200
<v Speaker 1>and sometimes the card behaves in a way that works

0:18:48.240 --> 0:18:51.240
<v Speaker 1>out for everybody. In this case, it didn't. And it's

0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:54.720
<v Speaker 1>not that the car couldn't handle the situation. It's just

0:18:54.840 --> 0:18:57.440
<v Speaker 1>that the method that the car used turned out to

0:18:57.640 --> 0:19:01.760
<v Speaker 1>not be reliable. Yeah, this was an extremely slow speed crash,

0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:04.640
<v Speaker 1>as we've said. Yes, the bus was traveling fifteen miles

0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:06.239
<v Speaker 1>per hour in the other lane trying to get through

0:19:06.280 --> 0:19:08.879
<v Speaker 1>that gap. But the Google car was traveling I think

0:19:08.920 --> 0:19:11.920
<v Speaker 1>they said to two miles per hour. Yeah, very very slow,

0:19:12.359 --> 0:19:15.520
<v Speaker 1>very slow speed. So the thing is like with the

0:19:15.640 --> 0:19:18.840
<v Speaker 1>with the compensation for this, you know, the thirty five

0:19:18.960 --> 0:19:22.280
<v Speaker 1>hundred tests that they're now going to run additional tests, uh,

0:19:22.359 --> 0:19:25.800
<v Speaker 1>to determine or to find a way around that situation.

0:19:25.920 --> 0:19:28.200
<v Speaker 1>So it's never going to happen again. We're gonna do

0:19:28.240 --> 0:19:31.199
<v Speaker 1>everything we can, but to to think about it that way,

0:19:31.280 --> 0:19:33.760
<v Speaker 1>to say, the thirty five hundred tests that are going

0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:37.080
<v Speaker 1>to allow this vehicle to to think about that exact

0:19:37.160 --> 0:19:39.639
<v Speaker 1>situation and never let it happen again where where it

0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:42.040
<v Speaker 1>just kind of noses out into into a lane that

0:19:42.119 --> 0:19:45.240
<v Speaker 1>appears open. Yeah, that's remarkable. I mean it just lets

0:19:45.280 --> 0:19:48.119
<v Speaker 1>you know that there there are tens of thousands of

0:19:48.359 --> 0:19:52.480
<v Speaker 1>of um programs or are thoughts, I don't know how

0:19:52.560 --> 0:19:54.399
<v Speaker 1>to say it, right, that are they're going through this

0:19:54.520 --> 0:19:58.520
<v Speaker 1>thing at all times, you know, um as calculations and

0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:01.480
<v Speaker 1>parameters and just you know, if this then that you know,

0:20:01.560 --> 0:20:04.400
<v Speaker 1>those scenarios are being run all the time. It's just incredible,

0:20:04.480 --> 0:20:06.560
<v Speaker 1>mind boggling, it really is. And I was looking into

0:20:06.720 --> 0:20:09.480
<v Speaker 1>you said one one point four or five million miles

0:20:09.560 --> 0:20:12.840
<v Speaker 1>have been driven, uh flawlessly, right, I mean they hadn't

0:20:12.880 --> 0:20:15.440
<v Speaker 1>have any problems, you know, at at fault I guess

0:20:15.760 --> 0:20:19.359
<v Speaker 1>the autonomous vehicle. Do you know how much they test

0:20:19.920 --> 0:20:23.760
<v Speaker 1>on a daily basis and on actually on a daily basis? No? No, okay,

0:20:23.760 --> 0:20:25.240
<v Speaker 1>well let's see, I've got I got a note here.

0:20:25.240 --> 0:20:27.879
<v Speaker 1>I should have looked for that reading that. Okay, here

0:20:27.920 --> 0:20:29.760
<v Speaker 1>we go. All right, so actually this is a per

0:20:29.840 --> 0:20:32.080
<v Speaker 1>week and then a per day thing. All right, They

0:20:32.200 --> 0:20:35.480
<v Speaker 1>drive ten thousand miles per week and that's like you know,

0:20:35.680 --> 0:20:38.200
<v Speaker 1>somebody in a vehicle on the road ten thousand miles

0:20:38.280 --> 0:20:41.640
<v Speaker 1>per week, per day though this number is incredible. Per day,

0:20:42.359 --> 0:20:46.879
<v Speaker 1>they are driving three million miles of computer simulation miles.

0:20:47.240 --> 0:20:50.160
<v Speaker 1>Oh so three million the equivalent of three million miles.

0:20:50.240 --> 0:20:52.280
<v Speaker 1>That's because they can quickly just go through that and

0:20:52.359 --> 0:20:56.359
<v Speaker 1>have multiple systems running these things, you know, So the

0:20:56.680 --> 0:20:58.280
<v Speaker 1>amount of testing that they do in a year is

0:20:58.320 --> 0:21:00.879
<v Speaker 1>just unbelievable. I don't have yearly stats or anything, but

0:21:00.920 --> 0:21:04.320
<v Speaker 1>you can extrapolate those numbers to that well. And the

0:21:04.440 --> 0:21:07.680
<v Speaker 1>other point in the Toyota press conference that was interesting

0:21:07.760 --> 0:21:09.520
<v Speaker 1>to me, and this goes back to what you were

0:21:09.520 --> 0:21:11.760
<v Speaker 1>saying at the beginning of the show about holding autonomous

0:21:11.840 --> 0:21:14.720
<v Speaker 1>cars at a different standard than we hold human drivers.

0:21:16.080 --> 0:21:20.520
<v Speaker 1>They talked about how you offer a lot of the

0:21:20.600 --> 0:21:26.440
<v Speaker 1>autonomous car industry talks about the one hundred million mile benchmark,

0:21:26.560 --> 0:21:29.400
<v Speaker 1>saying that you want you want one hundred million miles

0:21:29.480 --> 0:21:33.960
<v Speaker 1>traveled of proven safety. And they said, you know that's

0:21:34.000 --> 0:21:36.399
<v Speaker 1>not enough. You need to go much bigger than that

0:21:36.440 --> 0:21:40.000
<v Speaker 1>one hundred billion miles. And I thought, wow, that is

0:21:40.359 --> 0:21:43.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I get it for you want that many

0:21:43.440 --> 0:21:47.399
<v Speaker 1>miles so that you can encounter as many possible different

0:21:47.480 --> 0:21:52.440
<v Speaker 1>situations as you might encounter on the road, because obviously,

0:21:52.720 --> 0:21:55.560
<v Speaker 1>if you if you plan a system and it's great

0:21:55.640 --> 0:21:59.119
<v Speaker 1>for handling ninety nine percent of the situations, that's fine

0:21:59.280 --> 0:22:01.600
<v Speaker 1>until you run into that one percent. And when you

0:22:01.720 --> 0:22:04.680
<v Speaker 1>do figure out how many cars are on the road

0:22:04.760 --> 0:22:08.520
<v Speaker 1>in the United States alone, traveling on any given day,

0:22:08.960 --> 0:22:13.120
<v Speaker 1>you realize the odds are Eventually, I mean, statistics show,

0:22:13.200 --> 0:22:17.639
<v Speaker 1>statistics prove like odds are sooner rather than later, one

0:22:17.640 --> 0:22:21.120
<v Speaker 1>of those autonomous cars will encounter a situation that would

0:22:21.160 --> 0:22:25.120
<v Speaker 1>have been impossible to anticipate in the programming phase. Yeah,

0:22:25.240 --> 0:22:27.440
<v Speaker 1>so well, I get it. On one hand. On the

0:22:27.520 --> 0:22:29.800
<v Speaker 1>other hand, I get frustrated because I really want to

0:22:29.840 --> 0:22:32.879
<v Speaker 1>see this feature get here as soon as possible. But

0:22:33.000 --> 0:22:40.480
<v Speaker 1>I totally understand the need for that level of precision

0:22:40.600 --> 0:22:44.679
<v Speaker 1>that's demanded so that you can be sure that nothing

0:22:45.480 --> 0:22:50.080
<v Speaker 1>catastrophic happens when a car encounters something that the programmers

0:22:50.160 --> 0:22:54.000
<v Speaker 1>just did not anticipate. Now, Chris Rmson again, he was

0:22:54.119 --> 0:22:56.720
<v Speaker 1>the what was his title, shoot, I think as director

0:22:56.800 --> 0:23:00.400
<v Speaker 1>of the self driving car project. I couldn't remember director

0:23:00.440 --> 0:23:02.480
<v Speaker 1>or not, but he he did say, and this is

0:23:02.680 --> 0:23:04.679
<v Speaker 1>I don't you can find this troubling, I guess if

0:23:04.680 --> 0:23:07.520
<v Speaker 1>you want to. But I understand what he's saying. He

0:23:07.640 --> 0:23:09.720
<v Speaker 1>says that, you know, of course the February fourteenth was

0:23:09.800 --> 0:23:12.359
<v Speaker 1>a tough day for his team, obviously, but he says,

0:23:12.480 --> 0:23:15.240
<v Speaker 1>and I thought this was interesting. He said, We've got

0:23:15.280 --> 0:23:17.199
<v Speaker 1>to be prepared for more days just like that if

0:23:17.200 --> 0:23:19.479
<v Speaker 1>we're going to ever succeed in creating this, this project,

0:23:19.520 --> 0:23:21.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, making this work. And we're actually gonna have

0:23:21.880 --> 0:23:24.960
<v Speaker 1>worse days than that. And when I when I hear that,

0:23:25.040 --> 0:23:26.359
<v Speaker 1>you know we're gonna have worse days than that. Of

0:23:26.440 --> 0:23:27.840
<v Speaker 1>course you think, you know the worst. Do you think

0:23:27.880 --> 0:23:30.440
<v Speaker 1>that it's going to be involved in accident that is

0:23:30.680 --> 0:23:34.080
<v Speaker 1>fatal or you know, harms somebody, anybody in any way,

0:23:34.160 --> 0:23:35.920
<v Speaker 1>And of course that would be an awful day. That'd

0:23:35.920 --> 0:23:38.080
<v Speaker 1>be a worse day than what we've seen. But you

0:23:38.240 --> 0:23:41.000
<v Speaker 1>kind of have to expect something like that is going

0:23:41.080 --> 0:23:43.600
<v Speaker 1>to happen if you're traveling, if you're traveling three hundred

0:23:43.680 --> 0:23:45.920
<v Speaker 1>billion miles like you said, or you know whatever, the

0:23:46.119 --> 0:23:48.399
<v Speaker 1>the enormous number of miles on the road that they

0:23:48.480 --> 0:23:51.520
<v Speaker 1>want to travel is. Um I would guess that, you know,

0:23:51.560 --> 0:23:53.480
<v Speaker 1>when you're talking about three or three hundred million or

0:23:53.480 --> 0:23:57.200
<v Speaker 1>billion or whatever it was, those might be computer simulated miles,

0:23:57.240 --> 0:23:59.320
<v Speaker 1>because you know, the three million, three million a day

0:23:59.400 --> 0:24:01.840
<v Speaker 1>is an hormous number and that adds up quickly. But

0:24:02.160 --> 0:24:04.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, ten thousand miles per week of actual you know,

0:24:05.080 --> 0:24:08.000
<v Speaker 1>physical drawn the road testing, that's that's pretty impressive still,

0:24:08.040 --> 0:24:10.040
<v Speaker 1>But how long would that take to get up to

0:24:11.000 --> 0:24:13.080
<v Speaker 1>three hundred million? And you know, I think somebody who

0:24:13.160 --> 0:24:16.080
<v Speaker 1>laid it out pretty clearly here is the US Transportation Secretary.

0:24:16.119 --> 0:24:18.840
<v Speaker 1>His name is Anthony Fox. And you know he's the

0:24:18.880 --> 0:24:21.920
<v Speaker 1>one who said where I initially read, I guess, don't

0:24:21.960 --> 0:24:24.600
<v Speaker 1>don't compare these two perfection You can't do that. And

0:24:24.920 --> 0:24:26.480
<v Speaker 1>one of the quotes here in an article that I

0:24:26.560 --> 0:24:29.920
<v Speaker 1>read from the BBC says that he says, it's not

0:24:30.119 --> 0:24:32.000
<v Speaker 1>as surprise that at some point to be a crash

0:24:32.040 --> 0:24:33.919
<v Speaker 1>when they've got this brand new technology in the road.

0:24:33.960 --> 0:24:36.080
<v Speaker 1>But what I what I would challenge anyone to do,

0:24:36.240 --> 0:24:37.960
<v Speaker 1>is to look at the number of crashes that occurred

0:24:38.000 --> 0:24:40.160
<v Speaker 1>on the same day that with the result of human behavior.

0:24:40.480 --> 0:24:42.200
<v Speaker 1>And that gets right back to what you were saying,

0:24:42.240 --> 0:24:45.080
<v Speaker 1>and that you know, there's so many miles driven every

0:24:45.200 --> 0:24:48.000
<v Speaker 1>day just here in the US, around the world, all

0:24:48.080 --> 0:24:51.160
<v Speaker 1>over the place, that you just you know that bad

0:24:51.200 --> 0:24:53.760
<v Speaker 1>stuff is happening all the time, every minute, literally, all right,

0:24:53.880 --> 0:24:56.760
<v Speaker 1>but this is a great opportunity for me to transition

0:24:56.920 --> 0:24:59.840
<v Speaker 1>from the Google story, which is you know it's again.

0:25:00.359 --> 0:25:04.880
<v Speaker 1>It has huge implications for the autonomous car industry. Even

0:25:04.960 --> 0:25:08.680
<v Speaker 1>though it was in the grand scheme of things, a

0:25:08.840 --> 0:25:14.240
<v Speaker 1>minor accident, it was something that once you realize, oh,

0:25:15.000 --> 0:25:18.440
<v Speaker 1>they're not perfect, then it starts raising some questions. These

0:25:18.760 --> 0:25:21.280
<v Speaker 1>talks were a bit more subdued after that point. Yeah,

0:25:21.359 --> 0:25:23.760
<v Speaker 1>and at south By Southwest like that was definitely happening,

0:25:23.800 --> 0:25:26.000
<v Speaker 1>although I went to a couple of different panels about

0:25:26.040 --> 0:25:28.080
<v Speaker 1>autonomous cars where they didn't even bring it up. They

0:25:28.119 --> 0:25:31.440
<v Speaker 1>were gung ho. I mean, the general feeling at south

0:25:31.480 --> 0:25:35.520
<v Speaker 1>By Southwest is that autonomous cars are a definitive future

0:25:35.640 --> 0:25:40.080
<v Speaker 1>that are coming, and that that most likely there will

0:25:40.119 --> 0:25:43.920
<v Speaker 1>be some form of shared services model for autonomous cars.

0:25:44.320 --> 0:25:51.160
<v Speaker 1>I think most people agreed that personal ownership is going

0:25:51.280 --> 0:25:56.639
<v Speaker 1>to slowly phase out, largely because younger generations don't necessarily

0:25:56.760 --> 0:26:00.200
<v Speaker 1>see the necessity of owning a car. And there some

0:26:00.280 --> 0:26:04.000
<v Speaker 1>interesting statistics too. I saw a panel it's called robot

0:26:04.080 --> 0:26:10.080
<v Speaker 1>cars and sharing road rage or smooth sailing, and this

0:26:10.280 --> 0:26:13.240
<v Speaker 1>was said. Three panelists on it, a moderator and two panelists.

0:26:13.920 --> 0:26:17.200
<v Speaker 1>One was the moderator was Frederick Sue of a company

0:26:17.240 --> 0:26:22.320
<v Speaker 1>called NATO. NATO creates an app and a camera setup

0:26:22.480 --> 0:26:25.360
<v Speaker 1>where you can essentially upgrade your car into a smart car,

0:26:25.880 --> 0:26:28.480
<v Speaker 1>not an autonomous car, but a smart car where it's

0:26:29.040 --> 0:26:33.680
<v Speaker 1>able to use information from the camera and run it

0:26:33.760 --> 0:26:35.960
<v Speaker 1>through some algorithms that are on the back end of

0:26:36.040 --> 0:26:39.399
<v Speaker 1>the data system that then transmits to your app to

0:26:39.560 --> 0:26:43.040
<v Speaker 1>let you know things like how well, how good of

0:26:43.080 --> 0:26:45.320
<v Speaker 1>a driver is the driver, that kind of stuff. So

0:26:45.440 --> 0:26:48.959
<v Speaker 1>it's also a use for like fleet management. You can

0:26:49.160 --> 0:26:51.399
<v Speaker 1>use it to figure out if the driver you've just

0:26:51.600 --> 0:26:55.840
<v Speaker 1>hired to be one of your employees, if that was

0:26:55.880 --> 0:26:57.879
<v Speaker 1>a good choice or not, or maybe you need to

0:26:57.920 --> 0:27:00.880
<v Speaker 1>rethink that that kind of stuff based on driving. Yeah,

0:27:01.280 --> 0:27:04.040
<v Speaker 1>and uh, and it pulls information from a lot of

0:27:04.080 --> 0:27:07.879
<v Speaker 1>different sources, but the camera is the primary one. He

0:27:08.040 --> 0:27:11.440
<v Speaker 1>was the moderator. And then you had Shad Laws from

0:27:11.680 --> 0:27:15.560
<v Speaker 1>Renault and who was funny because he talked about Renault

0:27:15.640 --> 0:27:18.080
<v Speaker 1>is a brand that is famous around the world but

0:27:18.280 --> 0:27:20.199
<v Speaker 1>not here in the US. But you might know our

0:27:20.240 --> 0:27:24.760
<v Speaker 1>partner Nissan. And then uh, yeah, we knew Renault back

0:27:24.800 --> 0:27:28.320
<v Speaker 1>in what the mid eighties, I think, yeah, that's about it. Yeah,

0:27:28.680 --> 0:27:31.600
<v Speaker 1>And then there was a Mark platchin from BMW who

0:27:31.680 --> 0:27:33.680
<v Speaker 1>was actually a substitute. Originally it was supposed to be

0:27:33.760 --> 0:27:38.000
<v Speaker 1>Maryanne Wu of ge Ventures. We'll be back with more

0:27:38.000 --> 0:27:40.960
<v Speaker 1>of the great Google Car Crash of twenty sixteen after

0:27:41.080 --> 0:27:53.040
<v Speaker 1>we take this quick break. So let me throw you

0:27:53.160 --> 0:27:55.440
<v Speaker 1>some some statistics at you, or some of the facts

0:27:55.480 --> 0:27:58.080
<v Speaker 1>at you that Sue brought up. So one of the

0:27:58.160 --> 0:28:02.920
<v Speaker 1>things he said was that the hypoical American car spends

0:28:03.080 --> 0:28:07.880
<v Speaker 1>ninety six percent of its life part of its life part.

0:28:08.040 --> 0:28:10.960
<v Speaker 1>That's an enormous chunk of time. Yeah, so only four

0:28:11.040 --> 0:28:14.879
<v Speaker 1>percent of your typical American car, knowing that there are

0:28:14.960 --> 0:28:18.600
<v Speaker 1>cases outside on either end, four percent of it is

0:28:18.600 --> 0:28:23.040
<v Speaker 1>actually used driving around. So with that when you hit

0:28:23.119 --> 0:28:26.080
<v Speaker 1>someone with that, assuming that that is in fact correct,

0:28:26.680 --> 0:28:29.760
<v Speaker 1>I don't know where his source was for ninety six percent,

0:28:30.160 --> 0:28:32.680
<v Speaker 1>but assuming that is in fact correct, you can start

0:28:32.720 --> 0:28:36.440
<v Speaker 1>to see an argument for a fleet of autonomous vehicles

0:28:36.600 --> 0:28:40.080
<v Speaker 1>that can drive around on demand and pick someone up

0:28:40.080 --> 0:28:42.680
<v Speaker 1>and drop them off, because that means you could free

0:28:42.800 --> 0:28:45.360
<v Speaker 1>up the space that would be taken by a part

0:28:45.480 --> 0:28:50.800
<v Speaker 1>car and use it for something else, because I mean,

0:28:50.880 --> 0:28:54.640
<v Speaker 1>a lot of our spaces are reserver for parking. In fact,

0:28:54.920 --> 0:28:58.000
<v Speaker 1>there are regulations for office buildings about how much square

0:28:58.040 --> 0:29:02.040
<v Speaker 1>footage you have to set aside for parking in certain cities.

0:29:02.080 --> 0:29:04.800
<v Speaker 1>It depends on the city. But imagine that you have

0:29:04.920 --> 0:29:08.600
<v Speaker 1>a world where people are relying on autonomous cars to

0:29:08.720 --> 0:29:10.320
<v Speaker 1>pick them up and drop them off. You don't need

0:29:10.400 --> 0:29:13.040
<v Speaker 1>that space for parking anymore. You can actually dedicate that

0:29:13.160 --> 0:29:17.080
<v Speaker 1>to something else and make bukuza money. I think it's

0:29:17.120 --> 0:29:18.920
<v Speaker 1>the way they put it. But anyway, plant a tree,

0:29:19.400 --> 0:29:20.959
<v Speaker 1>plant a tree. You could also do that. I think,

0:29:21.000 --> 0:29:24.760
<v Speaker 1>come on, you tree hugger. No, I also think that

0:29:24.840 --> 0:29:27.560
<v Speaker 1>would be awesome. So one of the things that I

0:29:27.680 --> 0:29:35.360
<v Speaker 1>thought was shocking it. I think the effect on me

0:29:35.680 --> 0:29:39.520
<v Speaker 1>was not what the speaker was planning. Shad laws of

0:29:39.600 --> 0:29:45.800
<v Speaker 1>Renault was talking about the safety factor of autonomous cars,

0:29:45.840 --> 0:29:51.479
<v Speaker 1>and his argument was that safety autonomous cars. First of all,

0:29:51.520 --> 0:29:54.480
<v Speaker 1>we can't determine that they're more safe than human driven

0:29:54.560 --> 0:29:57.320
<v Speaker 1>cars yet because we don't have enough information. We don't

0:29:57.320 --> 0:29:59.880
<v Speaker 1>have enough autonomous cars on the road, we haven't had

0:29:59.880 --> 0:30:02.440
<v Speaker 1>a enough scenarios to really tell. But then he also

0:30:02.480 --> 0:30:05.160
<v Speaker 1>said safety is really not as big a deal as

0:30:05.240 --> 0:30:09.120
<v Speaker 1>you might think, because the safety benchmark is to try

0:30:09.200 --> 0:30:12.400
<v Speaker 1>and have fewer than one fatality per one hundred million

0:30:12.480 --> 0:30:17.040
<v Speaker 1>kilometers driven. Now, in the United States it is one

0:30:17.160 --> 0:30:20.640
<v Speaker 1>point zero eight fatalities for one hundred million miles. But

0:30:20.760 --> 0:30:23.520
<v Speaker 1>a mile is longer than a kilometer, right, one mile

0:30:23.640 --> 0:30:26.800
<v Speaker 1>is one point six kilometers, so it's still below that

0:30:27.120 --> 0:30:30.000
<v Speaker 1>one fatality per one hundred million kilometers. And then he

0:30:30.040 --> 0:30:32.680
<v Speaker 1>said for most countries that's the case. There are a

0:30:32.720 --> 0:30:34.840
<v Speaker 1>few that are above it, but not many. So is

0:30:34.840 --> 0:30:37.720
<v Speaker 1>this an unrealistic standard to be held to? Well, I

0:30:37.760 --> 0:30:40.920
<v Speaker 1>think what he was trying to say is that human

0:30:41.040 --> 0:30:45.840
<v Speaker 1>drivers are pretty safe already, and therefore you can't sell

0:30:45.960 --> 0:30:48.360
<v Speaker 1>autonomous cars on the promise of safety because we're so

0:30:48.480 --> 0:30:52.400
<v Speaker 1>safe already. I would counter that argument by saying, more

0:30:52.480 --> 0:30:55.360
<v Speaker 1>than thirty thousand people died last year as a result

0:30:55.400 --> 0:30:59.520
<v Speaker 1>of car accidents, as thirty thousand fewer people around today

0:31:00.280 --> 0:31:03.840
<v Speaker 1>because of a car accident, and more something around the

0:31:04.000 --> 0:31:06.040
<v Speaker 1>order of ninety percent of car accidents are at the

0:31:06.080 --> 0:31:08.840
<v Speaker 1>fault of the human of a human driver, at least

0:31:08.880 --> 0:31:12.880
<v Speaker 1>one human driver, And so my counter to that argument

0:31:12.960 --> 0:31:17.240
<v Speaker 1>is that it may be statistically speaking, a safe thing,

0:31:17.680 --> 0:31:20.000
<v Speaker 1>but when you get down to actual numbers, with real

0:31:20.160 --> 0:31:23.760
<v Speaker 1>human being lives attached to it, I would argue that

0:31:23.880 --> 0:31:29.000
<v Speaker 1>the autonomous vehicles so far have proven to be a

0:31:29.200 --> 0:31:32.280
<v Speaker 1>really good move in the right direction to reduce that

0:31:32.440 --> 0:31:35.440
<v Speaker 1>number dramatically. This is dangerous territory you're waiting into here,

0:31:35.520 --> 0:31:38.720
<v Speaker 1>because on our show on Car Stuff, we sometimes talk about,

0:31:39.200 --> 0:31:45.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, the incredible rise in fatalities on Georgia highways

0:31:45.680 --> 0:31:47.720
<v Speaker 1>last year, because there was a huge increase, like twenty

0:31:47.760 --> 0:31:50.440
<v Speaker 1>five percent increase or something, you know, year over year. Wow,

0:31:50.480 --> 0:31:52.680
<v Speaker 1>And it was really big, and it was the first

0:31:52.720 --> 0:31:54.440
<v Speaker 1>time in a long, long time, a long stretch of

0:31:54.480 --> 0:31:57.000
<v Speaker 1>time where you know, it had actually been on the rise.

0:31:57.040 --> 0:31:59.120
<v Speaker 1>It it was going down up until that point, and

0:31:59.200 --> 0:32:02.040
<v Speaker 1>then suddenly this big spike and trying to figure out why,

0:32:02.080 --> 0:32:04.000
<v Speaker 1>and we're talking about distraction and all that stuff, you know,

0:32:04.120 --> 0:32:06.520
<v Speaker 1>smartphones and things behind the wheel and trying to just

0:32:06.960 --> 0:32:10.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, guess why it's happening that way. And of

0:32:10.200 --> 0:32:12.600
<v Speaker 1>course somebody writes in and says, well, thirty eight thousand

0:32:12.640 --> 0:32:15.320
<v Speaker 1>people is not that many people. And you say, well,

0:32:15.400 --> 0:32:18.760
<v Speaker 1>that's a lot of people die on us highways. And

0:32:18.920 --> 0:32:20.880
<v Speaker 1>they say, now, how back in the nineteen fifties the

0:32:20.960 --> 0:32:24.080
<v Speaker 1>number was like forty four thousand and that, you know,

0:32:24.360 --> 0:32:26.000
<v Speaker 1>and that was with less drivers on the road. And

0:32:26.040 --> 0:32:28.760
<v Speaker 1>they give you all these stats about population and number

0:32:28.800 --> 0:32:30.840
<v Speaker 1>of miles driven and all that night, and I get

0:32:30.920 --> 0:32:32.800
<v Speaker 1>I gotta be honest, I get kind of confused with

0:32:33.000 --> 0:32:35.840
<v Speaker 1>with that, you know, with that sure angle, like trying

0:32:35.880 --> 0:32:38.480
<v Speaker 1>to compare apples to apples, you know, back then, you know,

0:32:38.840 --> 0:32:41.440
<v Speaker 1>sixty years ago to today. That's that's kind of tough

0:32:41.480 --> 0:32:44.440
<v Speaker 1>to do well, especially you know, there's so many other

0:32:44.560 --> 0:32:46.680
<v Speaker 1>factors there, right, Yeah, you might have fewer drivers on

0:32:46.720 --> 0:32:50.080
<v Speaker 1>the road, but your safety regulations weren't anything like they

0:32:50.160 --> 0:32:53.160
<v Speaker 1>are today years ago exactly. That was one thing. And

0:32:53.280 --> 0:32:56.240
<v Speaker 1>we always argue that point two, there were no crumple zones,

0:32:56.400 --> 0:32:58.280
<v Speaker 1>there were no air bags, there's none of that stuff

0:32:58.320 --> 0:33:00.320
<v Speaker 1>going on, so maybe that it counts for it. But

0:33:00.400 --> 0:33:03.280
<v Speaker 1>then they counter with another argument. So I'm just saying that,

0:33:03.560 --> 0:33:06.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, I feel that somebody out there is going

0:33:06.360 --> 0:33:08.520
<v Speaker 1>to have some kind of issue with you know, mentioning

0:33:08.600 --> 0:33:10.840
<v Speaker 1>that thirty you know, thirty eight thousands, a huge number,

0:33:10.880 --> 0:33:13.480
<v Speaker 1>that was what it was last year in the US alone.

0:33:14.200 --> 0:33:16.000
<v Speaker 1>That's a huge number, no matter how you look at it.

0:33:16.080 --> 0:33:18.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean, even if, even if they're more people driving,

0:33:19.040 --> 0:33:21.720
<v Speaker 1>I think my response to anyone who would argue like

0:33:22.320 --> 0:33:25.080
<v Speaker 1>that that this is less than in the past, I

0:33:25.160 --> 0:33:28.320
<v Speaker 1>would say, that's good, but it could be lower and

0:33:28.880 --> 0:33:31.880
<v Speaker 1>lower number of people who die as a result of

0:33:31.960 --> 0:33:34.320
<v Speaker 1>car accidents. I think it's hard to argue that that's

0:33:34.440 --> 0:33:37.320
<v Speaker 1>a bad thing. No, you certainly want that number to

0:33:37.400 --> 0:33:39.320
<v Speaker 1>be as low, as close to zero as you could

0:33:39.360 --> 0:33:42.280
<v Speaker 1>possibly make it. Of course, automakers strive for that. They're trying,

0:33:42.360 --> 0:33:45.080
<v Speaker 1>they're they're trying everything they can to make essentially a

0:33:45.200 --> 0:33:47.400
<v Speaker 1>deathproof car. I mean, you can't, you know, you can't

0:33:47.400 --> 0:33:51.200
<v Speaker 1>account for every situation, right, every single situation, but they're

0:33:51.240 --> 0:33:54.440
<v Speaker 1>doing their best to make what is essentially a deathproof car.

0:33:54.680 --> 0:33:58.000
<v Speaker 1>And there's several that, you know, several marks that they've got.

0:33:58.080 --> 0:34:01.360
<v Speaker 1>They've gone years without a Yeah, I've got you know,

0:34:01.520 --> 0:34:03.720
<v Speaker 1>the stats somewhere back on my desk, but there's a

0:34:03.800 --> 0:34:05.840
<v Speaker 1>few that have gone I'm going to guess here, just

0:34:06.080 --> 0:34:07.720
<v Speaker 1>based off my memory, it was like five or six

0:34:07.840 --> 0:34:11.719
<v Speaker 1>years without a fatality, right, caused by a fault in

0:34:11.760 --> 0:34:14.600
<v Speaker 1>a system in their vehicle. Right. Well, and that also

0:34:14.719 --> 0:34:16.759
<v Speaker 1>leads me to a different panel that I saw. We'll

0:34:16.800 --> 0:34:18.600
<v Speaker 1>come We'll come back to the road rage one because

0:34:18.600 --> 0:34:21.640
<v Speaker 1>we got to get to the BMW's Yeah. But the

0:34:22.440 --> 0:34:24.480
<v Speaker 1>other panel I saw that was related to this was

0:34:24.560 --> 0:34:27.440
<v Speaker 1>called looking Forward to Rush Hour the Future of Transit,

0:34:27.760 --> 0:34:29.759
<v Speaker 1>looking Forward to Rush Out. Yeah. This was from a

0:34:29.840 --> 0:34:33.720
<v Speaker 1>couple of industrial designers without to it design talking about

0:34:33.760 --> 0:34:37.480
<v Speaker 1>the future of transportation, and it wasn't just autonomous cars

0:34:37.600 --> 0:34:40.200
<v Speaker 1>or even just the future of cars. That was one

0:34:40.440 --> 0:34:44.040
<v Speaker 1>half of the panel, and that was done by a guy.

0:34:44.640 --> 0:34:47.759
<v Speaker 1>The guy who led that part was Dan Dorley, but

0:34:47.840 --> 0:34:51.040
<v Speaker 1>there was also Chip Walters who did the other half,

0:34:51.080 --> 0:34:54.279
<v Speaker 1>which was more about the hyper loop, also fascinating, but

0:34:54.400 --> 0:34:56.200
<v Speaker 1>that we're not talking about the hyper loop today. So

0:34:57.000 --> 0:34:59.080
<v Speaker 1>switching back over to Dorley. One of the things Dorley

0:34:59.120 --> 0:35:02.680
<v Speaker 1>said that I thought was really interesting was that once

0:35:02.719 --> 0:35:04.759
<v Speaker 1>you get to a level where you have a lot

0:35:04.800 --> 0:35:08.360
<v Speaker 1>of autonomous cars on the road, like let's say the

0:35:08.440 --> 0:35:12.719
<v Speaker 1>majority of cars on the road or autonomous, and you

0:35:12.880 --> 0:35:17.200
<v Speaker 1>have proof I mean, obviously this only works if everything's

0:35:17.239 --> 0:35:20.279
<v Speaker 1>working properly, but you have proof that because of the

0:35:20.400 --> 0:35:22.600
<v Speaker 1>number of autonomous vehicles on the road, the number of

0:35:22.719 --> 0:35:28.759
<v Speaker 1>crashes decreases dramatically, the number of deaths decreased dramatically. Then

0:35:28.880 --> 0:35:31.440
<v Speaker 1>you can start to play around with other stuff, because

0:35:32.200 --> 0:35:35.360
<v Speaker 1>if the autonomous cars are a proven technology that's safe,

0:35:36.040 --> 0:35:40.120
<v Speaker 1>you can let up on some of the major safety

0:35:40.280 --> 0:35:42.279
<v Speaker 1>considerations you've had to put into place over the last

0:35:42.280 --> 0:35:44.800
<v Speaker 1>few years in order to minimize that number that we

0:35:44.920 --> 0:35:48.799
<v Speaker 1>talked about, that thirty thousand or higher number. You could

0:35:48.800 --> 0:35:52.640
<v Speaker 1>remove crumple zones. You can make cars smaller and lighter,

0:35:53.120 --> 0:35:56.680
<v Speaker 1>which is especially important if your cars also are electric,

0:35:57.200 --> 0:35:59.440
<v Speaker 1>because the battery will have less weight to have to

0:35:59.520 --> 0:36:03.400
<v Speaker 1>move around. That will extend the driving range of your

0:36:03.520 --> 0:36:06.800
<v Speaker 1>vehicle because you've made your vehicle lighter. Not that not

0:36:06.920 --> 0:36:08.960
<v Speaker 1>that the battery's gotten any better, but it doesn't have

0:36:09.040 --> 0:36:11.279
<v Speaker 1>to push as much weight around. Sure, And again this

0:36:11.640 --> 0:36:14.480
<v Speaker 1>only works though, if every vehicle out there isn't the same. Yeah,

0:36:14.600 --> 0:36:17.800
<v Speaker 1>you have to have you have to have enough autonomous vehicles,

0:36:18.360 --> 0:36:22.319
<v Speaker 1>at least the majority, if not of them out there,

0:36:22.400 --> 0:36:26.759
<v Speaker 1>so that you can be confident that by eliminating those

0:36:27.200 --> 0:36:31.040
<v Speaker 1>safety features that are important right now, it's not going

0:36:31.080 --> 0:36:35.080
<v Speaker 1>to make any difference. And I think that I think

0:36:35.120 --> 0:36:37.440
<v Speaker 1>we're pretty far away from that. But I thought it

0:36:37.520 --> 0:36:41.040
<v Speaker 1>was an interesting point. He also talked about more car

0:36:41.120 --> 0:36:45.279
<v Speaker 1>manufacturers creating a sort of a universal chassis where lots

0:36:45.320 --> 0:36:47.600
<v Speaker 1>of different bodies of vehicles could fit on top of

0:36:47.680 --> 0:36:51.960
<v Speaker 1>the same basic chassis, leading to a future where ultimately

0:36:52.520 --> 0:36:54.600
<v Speaker 1>you can and you can do this now. Actually, if

0:36:54.640 --> 0:36:57.800
<v Speaker 1>you've got enough money, you can go to certain specialty

0:36:57.880 --> 0:37:02.080
<v Speaker 1>companies and three D print a car design. You could

0:37:02.120 --> 0:37:04.759
<v Speaker 1>design a car if you wanted to, and three D

0:37:04.880 --> 0:37:07.920
<v Speaker 1>print a car body that fits on top of a

0:37:08.200 --> 0:37:12.640
<v Speaker 1>particular chassis and motor drivetrain configuration, and so you can

0:37:12.680 --> 0:37:15.440
<v Speaker 1>have your own Like people would say, well, what kind

0:37:15.440 --> 0:37:17.160
<v Speaker 1>of cars as well, that's my car. I call it

0:37:17.239 --> 0:37:22.520
<v Speaker 1>a Strickland. Yeah, it's it's a Strickland. It doesn't drive anywhere.

0:37:24.280 --> 0:37:27.800
<v Speaker 1>Um yeah, that's that's a joke about me not driving.

0:37:28.320 --> 0:37:30.440
<v Speaker 1>But yeah. I thought it was interesting that he was

0:37:30.560 --> 0:37:35.480
<v Speaker 1>looking into implications of autonomous cars well beyond safety, well

0:37:35.560 --> 0:37:40.080
<v Speaker 1>beyond the shared model. He was looking at au Thomas

0:37:40.160 --> 0:37:42.120
<v Speaker 1>cars like, well, what does that do to the design

0:37:42.239 --> 0:37:44.440
<v Speaker 1>of the car itself. That's interesting that you know, you

0:37:44.520 --> 0:37:46.920
<v Speaker 1>could eliminate the things that we find that we have

0:37:47.120 --> 0:37:49.440
<v Speaker 1>to have now. Yeah, and that's that's an interesting way

0:37:49.440 --> 0:37:51.239
<v Speaker 1>to think about it, like if if, if it's just

0:37:51.400 --> 0:37:54.919
<v Speaker 1>not necessary, what could you really pair that design down

0:37:55.000 --> 0:37:57.080
<v Speaker 1>to what what what smart things could you do with

0:37:57.200 --> 0:38:00.359
<v Speaker 1>that ye to make it work better as an electric form,

0:38:00.440 --> 0:38:02.919
<v Speaker 1>as an autonomous platform, Right, you know, it all makes

0:38:03.160 --> 0:38:05.640
<v Speaker 1>it makes good sense. But again you're you're counting on

0:38:06.280 --> 0:38:09.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, participation in this. Yeah, you need to, you

0:38:09.640 --> 0:38:12.440
<v Speaker 1>would need to have enough buy in so that there

0:38:12.600 --> 0:38:15.759
<v Speaker 1>isn't a risk of having something like we saw with

0:38:16.120 --> 0:38:18.440
<v Speaker 1>the previous Google tests. You know, we talked about there

0:38:18.480 --> 0:38:23.120
<v Speaker 1>were more than a dozen accidents involving Google self driving cars,

0:38:23.480 --> 0:38:29.480
<v Speaker 1>previously only only the previous ones until before February twenty sixteen.

0:38:30.040 --> 0:38:33.279
<v Speaker 1>They were all at the fault of a human driver,

0:38:33.520 --> 0:38:36.759
<v Speaker 1>either the person manually controlling the self driving car or

0:38:36.800 --> 0:38:40.000
<v Speaker 1>another driver. So the same thing is true. If you're

0:38:40.040 --> 0:38:42.560
<v Speaker 1>in an autonomous vehicle and there are human drivers on

0:38:42.600 --> 0:38:44.680
<v Speaker 1>the road, then there's a chance that one of them

0:38:44.960 --> 0:38:47.840
<v Speaker 1>could make a terrible like there could just be an accident,

0:38:47.920 --> 0:38:51.120
<v Speaker 1>it could be a failure, it could be a distracted driver,

0:38:51.320 --> 0:38:55.600
<v Speaker 1>drunk driver, it could be anything. And until you eliminate

0:38:55.640 --> 0:38:58.960
<v Speaker 1>those possibilities, it is pretty dangerous to just say, let's

0:38:58.960 --> 0:39:01.239
<v Speaker 1>eliminate crumple zone. It's not very dangerous. You could do

0:39:01.360 --> 0:39:04.600
<v Speaker 1>other stuff like imagine, you know, you have no need

0:39:04.680 --> 0:39:08.320
<v Speaker 1>for controls, so you free up all that space in

0:39:08.440 --> 0:39:12.000
<v Speaker 1>the front that would be normally be dedicated to steering

0:39:12.000 --> 0:39:14.000
<v Speaker 1>wheel and pedals and that kind of stuff. You could

0:39:14.000 --> 0:39:18.040
<v Speaker 1>have a workstation or an entertainment station. Because you're not driving,

0:39:18.320 --> 0:39:20.800
<v Speaker 1>you don't even necessarily have to face forward. Yeah, you

0:39:20.840 --> 0:39:23.000
<v Speaker 1>can face backward. I had a discussion about this on

0:39:23.120 --> 0:39:27.560
<v Speaker 1>Forward Thinking and Lauren immediately said, yeah, could never do that.

0:39:27.680 --> 0:39:29.839
<v Speaker 1>I'd be yakking all over the inside of that car. Yeah.

0:39:30.040 --> 0:39:31.560
<v Speaker 1>I think a lot of people have that trouble on

0:39:31.640 --> 0:39:34.960
<v Speaker 1>a train already or a bus, you know, in certain situations. Right,

0:39:35.120 --> 0:39:38.680
<v Speaker 1>but imagine if you could sit sideways. Yeah, the design

0:39:38.719 --> 0:39:40.800
<v Speaker 1>of the vehicle could just be so radically different that

0:39:41.560 --> 0:39:43.720
<v Speaker 1>none of that really matter. You could you could probably

0:39:43.760 --> 0:39:45.879
<v Speaker 1>design you know, those honeycomb systems where you could sleep

0:39:45.920 --> 0:39:47.279
<v Speaker 1>in the car if you want it. Yeah. It's kind

0:39:47.280 --> 0:39:52.440
<v Speaker 1>of funny because it actually opens up an enormous opportunity

0:39:52.520 --> 0:39:56.719
<v Speaker 1>for designers. Yeah, right, unprecedented opportunity because you would be

0:39:56.800 --> 0:39:59.879
<v Speaker 1>completely transforming the interior of a car. All the things

0:40:00.000 --> 0:40:03.920
<v Speaker 1>we associate as being well, not all, but a lot

0:40:03.960 --> 0:40:06.880
<v Speaker 1>of the things we associate as being the definition of

0:40:06.960 --> 0:40:08.719
<v Speaker 1>what an inside of a car would look like go

0:40:08.840 --> 0:40:11.400
<v Speaker 1>out the window, I mean figuratively speaking. And so you

0:40:11.440 --> 0:40:15.920
<v Speaker 1>could then have all kinds of different configurations and designs

0:40:15.960 --> 0:40:19.160
<v Speaker 1>almost like almost more like home design really, or room design,

0:40:19.800 --> 0:40:22.880
<v Speaker 1>some sort of interior design for vehicles. Yeah, it's a strange,

0:40:23.160 --> 0:40:25.280
<v Speaker 1>strange thought. Hey, by the way, I want to clarify

0:40:25.360 --> 0:40:27.560
<v Speaker 1>one thing, really, sure, just something's been bugging me for

0:40:27.600 --> 0:40:29.800
<v Speaker 1>the last ten minutes. All right, I do know that

0:40:29.840 --> 0:40:32.160
<v Speaker 1>there were rent cars on US roads prior to the

0:40:32.280 --> 0:40:34.520
<v Speaker 1>nineteen eighties. I was just mentioning their brief comeback, you know,

0:40:34.600 --> 0:40:38.000
<v Speaker 1>with the Alliance lineup and uh and and the kind

0:40:38.040 --> 0:40:40.080
<v Speaker 1>of the I guess I'm going to mention the failure

0:40:40.560 --> 0:40:43.040
<v Speaker 1>that that was. It was, it was not not all

0:40:43.080 --> 0:40:45.480
<v Speaker 1>that well received. Yeah, but I think most of my

0:40:45.640 --> 0:40:49.200
<v Speaker 1>listeners are most of them, let me let me clarify,

0:40:49.400 --> 0:40:53.759
<v Speaker 1>most of my listeners in the US are probably unfamiliar

0:40:53.880 --> 0:40:57.399
<v Speaker 1>with the brand Renault. Yeah, probably because I'm guessing many

0:40:57.440 --> 0:40:59.560
<v Speaker 1>of them were born in the eighties. Yeah, it's a

0:40:59.760 --> 0:41:03.759
<v Speaker 1>it is a seldom seen vehicle on the roads here

0:41:03.800 --> 0:41:05.480
<v Speaker 1>in the United States, but in other parts of the

0:41:05.560 --> 0:41:07.400
<v Speaker 1>world it is a very popular way. Yeah, I mean

0:41:07.440 --> 0:41:09.480
<v Speaker 1>a lot like pougeaux or something like that. You know,

0:41:09.560 --> 0:41:13.040
<v Speaker 1>there's reasons, but not the right show. It's so funny

0:41:13.440 --> 0:41:17.120
<v Speaker 1>when you start throwing around car manufacturer names and car

0:41:17.200 --> 0:41:21.480
<v Speaker 1>brand names, and then you come to that weird realization

0:41:21.560 --> 0:41:23.320
<v Speaker 1>that in other parts of the world they are totally

0:41:23.440 --> 0:41:26.319
<v Speaker 1>different ones that and some some of which that are

0:41:26.440 --> 0:41:29.720
<v Speaker 1>prevalent in the United States, are largely unknown in certain

0:41:29.760 --> 0:41:32.440
<v Speaker 1>parts of the world. And it just reminds you like, oh, yeah,

0:41:32.480 --> 0:41:34.840
<v Speaker 1>that's right. The whole world, isn't the US. Yeah, well

0:41:34.880 --> 0:41:37.400
<v Speaker 1>it's it's it is strange. And once you travel outside

0:41:37.440 --> 0:41:39.200
<v Speaker 1>and you see that you see the same vehicle but

0:41:39.239 --> 0:41:41.960
<v Speaker 1>it's named something different or something like that, it's just unusual.

0:41:42.040 --> 0:41:45.520
<v Speaker 1>It's just a it's it is eye opening. Really. Now,

0:41:45.880 --> 0:41:50.239
<v Speaker 1>I've been teasing this for the whole episode, but let's

0:41:50.280 --> 0:41:54.640
<v Speaker 1>get back to BMW and Mark Platchin. Is this intended

0:41:54.680 --> 0:41:56.520
<v Speaker 1>to hurt me? No, it's time tend to hurt you.

0:41:56.680 --> 0:41:59.240
<v Speaker 1>I just want to see what your reaction is Scott.

0:42:00.400 --> 0:42:03.759
<v Speaker 1>Scott and I started talking about this off microphone yesterday,

0:42:04.239 --> 0:42:06.759
<v Speaker 1>and as I was talking a little voice in my

0:42:06.880 --> 0:42:10.960
<v Speaker 1>head said, shut up, Jonathan, save it for the show.

0:42:11.560 --> 0:42:13.880
<v Speaker 1>So that's what we're gonna do. It's not really you

0:42:14.280 --> 0:42:17.279
<v Speaker 1>might just shrug and say, oh all right. But in

0:42:17.480 --> 0:42:21.240
<v Speaker 1>order to set this up first, what is bmw slogan?

0:42:21.600 --> 0:42:24.239
<v Speaker 1>Now they're known as it's It's a driver's car, right, yeah,

0:42:24.480 --> 0:42:27.560
<v Speaker 1>it's it's um the ultimate driving machine. Yea, I mean

0:42:27.640 --> 0:42:30.320
<v Speaker 1>the ultimate driving machine, the ultimate driving machine. So you

0:42:30.360 --> 0:42:32.360
<v Speaker 1>would think that, you know, of course they're going to

0:42:32.480 --> 0:42:35.479
<v Speaker 1>dabble in autonomous systems like you know, maybe adaptive cruise

0:42:35.520 --> 0:42:38.480
<v Speaker 1>control something like that. But I just I've had a

0:42:38.520 --> 0:42:42.960
<v Speaker 1>hard time all along seeing BMW going fully autonomous because

0:42:43.000 --> 0:42:44.839
<v Speaker 1>of the way they market their company right now, it's

0:42:44.920 --> 0:42:47.480
<v Speaker 1>it is the ultimate driving machine. It's a driver's vehicle.

0:42:47.719 --> 0:42:50.719
<v Speaker 1>If you want something that's fun to drive, that's an experience,

0:42:51.320 --> 0:42:53.120
<v Speaker 1>you get a BMW. You get it. You know something

0:42:53.200 --> 0:42:56.280
<v Speaker 1>that's it's it's top of the line, it's expensive, it's plush,

0:42:56.760 --> 0:42:59.399
<v Speaker 1>it's it's it's a well handling car, it's powerful, it's

0:42:59.480 --> 0:43:03.000
<v Speaker 1>it's everything you want, and again, ultimate driving machines. So

0:43:03.480 --> 0:43:06.440
<v Speaker 1>why are they messing around with autonomous vehicles? That's that's

0:43:06.480 --> 0:43:13.320
<v Speaker 1>my thoughts. Plashin works specifically with the autonomous vehicle section

0:43:13.719 --> 0:43:17.840
<v Speaker 1>in BMW, and his response to the first part would be,

0:43:18.360 --> 0:43:20.719
<v Speaker 1>I imagine I'm putting some words into his mouth, so

0:43:21.400 --> 0:43:23.080
<v Speaker 1>take this with a grain of salt. But I imagine

0:43:23.080 --> 0:43:27.520
<v Speaker 1>he would say, it's where the future of vehicles definitely

0:43:27.840 --> 0:43:31.320
<v Speaker 1>happens to be completely understand that and you cannot ignore it.

0:43:31.520 --> 0:43:35.359
<v Speaker 1>If you do, you'll be left behind. Yes, he said

0:43:35.440 --> 0:43:41.759
<v Speaker 1>that the company was at a real they were in

0:43:41.800 --> 0:43:44.440
<v Speaker 1>a quandary. He actually said that. I think it was

0:43:44.560 --> 0:43:47.719
<v Speaker 1>last year he was brought in to talk, or maybe

0:43:47.719 --> 0:43:49.359
<v Speaker 1>it was a few years ago. He was taught brought

0:43:49.400 --> 0:43:53.080
<v Speaker 1>in to talk about the concepts they needed to talk

0:43:53.120 --> 0:43:56.640
<v Speaker 1>about in an upcoming conversation. They were going to hit

0:43:56.719 --> 0:44:00.280
<v Speaker 1>like some corporate milestone, and they wanted to talk about

0:44:00.480 --> 0:44:03.960
<v Speaker 1>what are the next one hundred years of BMW going

0:44:04.000 --> 0:44:07.160
<v Speaker 1>to look like? Now, anyone who's listened to forward thinking,

0:44:07.360 --> 0:44:10.319
<v Speaker 1>you know, predicting the future is hard. Predicting five years

0:44:10.360 --> 0:44:13.160
<v Speaker 1>out is hard. Predicting one hundred years out is impossible.

0:44:13.160 --> 0:44:17.040
<v Speaker 1>I can't. Yeah, the only thing I can predict tomorrow

0:44:17.160 --> 0:44:18.520
<v Speaker 1>is that if I don't wear some block, I will

0:44:18.560 --> 0:44:20.920
<v Speaker 1>be sunburnt. That's it, because I know I'm gonna be

0:44:20.920 --> 0:44:24.799
<v Speaker 1>outside a lot. But he said it was his job

0:44:25.120 --> 0:44:28.640
<v Speaker 1>to try and help coordinate this vision of BMW for

0:44:28.680 --> 0:44:32.719
<v Speaker 1>the next one hundred years. And taking into account the

0:44:32.800 --> 0:44:36.359
<v Speaker 1>fact that autonomous cars are I mean everyone it's suth

0:44:36.400 --> 0:44:38.200
<v Speaker 1>By Southwest was talking about them as if it's a

0:44:38.239 --> 0:44:42.080
<v Speaker 1>foregone conclusion. That's the future, that's where we're going. So

0:44:42.520 --> 0:44:46.000
<v Speaker 1>taking that as part of it, they actually had serious

0:44:46.200 --> 0:44:51.320
<v Speaker 1>internal discussions what does this mean with our slogan the

0:44:51.600 --> 0:44:56.200
<v Speaker 1>ultimate driving machine? What do we do? Do we rebrand?

0:44:56.800 --> 0:45:00.839
<v Speaker 1>How do we rebrand? This is something we pry ourselves upon.

0:45:00.960 --> 0:45:04.440
<v Speaker 1>It is a corporate identity. It's it's kind of the

0:45:04.560 --> 0:45:08.279
<v Speaker 1>central mantra of the company. It's it's the DNA of

0:45:08.320 --> 0:45:12.600
<v Speaker 1>the company. They started playing with alternatives to the slogan,

0:45:12.719 --> 0:45:15.719
<v Speaker 1>like maybe we change it to something else, and they

0:45:15.800 --> 0:45:19.200
<v Speaker 1>tried a few different things out and all internally, and

0:45:19.440 --> 0:45:21.839
<v Speaker 1>no one liked them. No one liked them, And then

0:45:21.960 --> 0:45:27.640
<v Speaker 1>finally someone said, well, technically it's a driving machine. It's

0:45:27.640 --> 0:45:31.960
<v Speaker 1>a machine that's driving. It is the driving machine. We

0:45:32.080 --> 0:45:36.160
<v Speaker 1>can make the ultimate driving machine. So it's still the

0:45:36.239 --> 0:45:41.160
<v Speaker 1>same slogan. The context is redefined. Oh, boy, yeah, boy,

0:45:41.239 --> 0:45:44.080
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, that's why. I yeah, I don't know

0:45:44.200 --> 0:45:48.640
<v Speaker 1>about this all right. Well, so it's almost like you're

0:45:48.680 --> 0:45:51.840
<v Speaker 1>putting the emphasis on the on the other part, I

0:45:51.880 --> 0:45:53.080
<v Speaker 1>don't know, how how do you even look at that?

0:45:53.120 --> 0:45:56.080
<v Speaker 1>I guess it's how you would say, I'd say the emphasis.

0:45:56.760 --> 0:45:59.719
<v Speaker 1>The emphasis previously was on driving because you think of

0:45:59.800 --> 0:46:02.640
<v Speaker 1>driving as a verb that people indulge. So now it's

0:46:02.640 --> 0:46:06.160
<v Speaker 1>the ultimate driving machine. I see. Okay, well boy, that's

0:46:06.200 --> 0:46:09.120
<v Speaker 1>so subtle. So if you make and this was also

0:46:09.160 --> 0:46:12.320
<v Speaker 1>an interesting discussion because people ask the questions and what

0:46:12.480 --> 0:46:16.040
<v Speaker 1>happens to brand identity in a future of autonomous vehicles

0:46:16.160 --> 0:46:19.719
<v Speaker 1>that are likely not going to be owned by individuals

0:46:19.840 --> 0:46:22.880
<v Speaker 1>but will be in some form of shared economy. And

0:46:24.000 --> 0:46:26.479
<v Speaker 1>they had a really good response for this. They said, well,

0:46:27.960 --> 0:46:30.960
<v Speaker 1>you could argue that all autonomous cars would essentially be

0:46:31.000 --> 0:46:34.840
<v Speaker 1>alike that one, you know, robo uber car would be

0:46:34.960 --> 0:46:38.080
<v Speaker 1>the same as the next robot uber car, except eventually

0:46:38.120 --> 0:46:39.759
<v Speaker 1>someone would come along and say, you know what, We're

0:46:39.800 --> 0:46:41.960
<v Speaker 1>going to make a different robot uber car that has

0:46:42.560 --> 0:46:46.960
<v Speaker 1>X features in it, which appeals to why demographic, Yeah,

0:46:46.960 --> 0:46:49.360
<v Speaker 1>somebody will pay a premium for that feature, right, because

0:46:49.360 --> 0:46:53.560
<v Speaker 1>if you're like, hey, we noticed that that young people

0:46:53.680 --> 0:46:55.680
<v Speaker 1>between the ages of such and such and such and such,

0:46:55.760 --> 0:46:58.080
<v Speaker 1>they really care about these things and they don't care

0:46:58.080 --> 0:47:01.040
<v Speaker 1>about these other things. Let's make some cars that go

0:47:01.360 --> 0:47:04.400
<v Speaker 1>straight straight to what they care about, and we'll be

0:47:04.480 --> 0:47:07.040
<v Speaker 1>able to dominate that market. And then you get competition

0:47:07.160 --> 0:47:09.520
<v Speaker 1>there because other companies will follow, which means you still

0:47:09.680 --> 0:47:13.040
<v Speaker 1>end up getting that differentiation, you still get the brand identity.

0:47:13.120 --> 0:47:16.800
<v Speaker 1>The question is how do they define themselves so that

0:47:16.880 --> 0:47:20.399
<v Speaker 1>the experience of being in, say a BMW autonomous car

0:47:21.120 --> 0:47:24.239
<v Speaker 1>is different from being an Alexis autonomous car. Well, now

0:47:24.280 --> 0:47:26.360
<v Speaker 1>we know all they do is put the emphasis on machine.

0:47:27.239 --> 0:47:29.440
<v Speaker 1>That's it, right, But I thought, I guess it beats

0:47:29.520 --> 0:47:36.000
<v Speaker 1>like BMW we give up or BMW it was fun

0:47:36.080 --> 0:47:40.600
<v Speaker 1>well at last, Yeah, yeah, you can come up with

0:47:40.680 --> 0:47:42.520
<v Speaker 1>a bunch of funny slogans. I'm sure for it, but

0:47:42.760 --> 0:47:46.000
<v Speaker 1>but honestly like to stick with what they have. Really,

0:47:46.040 --> 0:47:47.920
<v Speaker 1>I think maybe if if that's what they're gonna do,

0:47:47.960 --> 0:47:50.920
<v Speaker 1>and they're gonna push it that way, that may be

0:47:51.000 --> 0:47:52.759
<v Speaker 1>exactly what they do. They may you may hear that

0:47:52.880 --> 0:47:56.600
<v Speaker 1>emphasized machine over over driving, which we are now, So

0:47:57.000 --> 0:47:58.840
<v Speaker 1>that's gonna be really weird, isn't it. I think so,

0:47:59.040 --> 0:48:00.719
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I'll so, I think it's going to be

0:48:00.800 --> 0:48:03.560
<v Speaker 1>weird to be in a world where, assuming that the

0:48:03.680 --> 0:48:07.840
<v Speaker 1>shared car approach is what what wins out, it'll be

0:48:08.000 --> 0:48:10.560
<v Speaker 1>weird to live in that world for lots of different reasons,

0:48:10.560 --> 0:48:12.439
<v Speaker 1>because a lot of us are very used to having

0:48:12.480 --> 0:48:15.520
<v Speaker 1>our own personal vehicle for multiple reasons, not just for

0:48:15.600 --> 0:48:19.080
<v Speaker 1>the convenience sake, but convenience outside of just I have

0:48:19.200 --> 0:48:21.879
<v Speaker 1>a car whenever I need to go someplace, assuming that's

0:48:21.920 --> 0:48:26.320
<v Speaker 1>not broken down. Scott and I will conclude our discussion

0:48:26.360 --> 0:48:29.120
<v Speaker 1>about the Great Google car crash of twenty sixteen, but

0:48:29.239 --> 0:48:42.520
<v Speaker 1>first we need to take another break. What about all

0:48:42.560 --> 0:48:45.360
<v Speaker 1>the stuff that's in a car. Like a lot of

0:48:45.400 --> 0:48:48.840
<v Speaker 1>people have stuff that they keep in their car, and

0:48:48.920 --> 0:48:51.040
<v Speaker 1>it might word in equipment or you know things like

0:48:51.160 --> 0:48:53.960
<v Speaker 1>that diapers, Yeah, stuff like the new parents might have

0:48:54.239 --> 0:48:55.960
<v Speaker 1>a box of diapers in the car so that when

0:48:56.000 --> 0:48:58.520
<v Speaker 1>they travel places they have their supply right there. Sure,

0:48:58.600 --> 0:48:59.920
<v Speaker 1>if they need to run out to the car, they

0:49:00.120 --> 0:49:04.240
<v Speaker 1>can or but in the future, if you have shared vehicles,

0:49:04.280 --> 0:49:06.359
<v Speaker 1>obviously you can't just keep stuff in a car. You'd

0:49:06.400 --> 0:49:08.600
<v Speaker 1>have to carry everything you need with you all the time,

0:49:09.800 --> 0:49:12.320
<v Speaker 1>and you would either have to pare down the stuff

0:49:12.440 --> 0:49:15.120
<v Speaker 1>so that you're saying, well, I might not be prepared

0:49:15.160 --> 0:49:17.759
<v Speaker 1>for certain situations. But yeah, but it's a trade off.

0:49:17.840 --> 0:49:19.440
<v Speaker 1>Isn't it really nice to just kind of leave an

0:49:19.520 --> 0:49:21.279
<v Speaker 1>umbrella in your car and have it when you need

0:49:21.320 --> 0:49:23.479
<v Speaker 1>it and you don't have to remember it every single

0:49:23.560 --> 0:49:24.720
<v Speaker 1>time you go out the door. And it was funny

0:49:24.719 --> 0:49:28.120
<v Speaker 1>because Platschin actually said, well, maybe we'll have services where

0:49:28.880 --> 0:49:33.280
<v Speaker 1>you could actually store your stuff and what would account

0:49:33.400 --> 0:49:35.520
<v Speaker 1>what would end up being like a mobile storage unit

0:49:35.560 --> 0:49:37.239
<v Speaker 1>and you can just call upon it to come to

0:49:37.320 --> 0:49:39.640
<v Speaker 1>you whenever you needed it. And I thought that puts

0:49:39.760 --> 0:49:42.719
<v Speaker 1>more cars on the road. That's a terrible idea. Yeah,

0:49:42.800 --> 0:49:44.680
<v Speaker 1>I'd just tell you right now, that's a bad idea.

0:49:44.840 --> 0:49:47.319
<v Speaker 1>Joe and Lauren both agree with you, and I do too.

0:49:47.719 --> 0:49:51.080
<v Speaker 1>I also thought like, well, that doesn't sound like that's ideal.

0:49:51.440 --> 0:49:54.040
<v Speaker 1>So yeah, there's obviously some huge trade offs that would happen.

0:49:54.080 --> 0:49:56.640
<v Speaker 1>We'll imagine a block of lockers, you know, that's would

0:49:56.640 --> 0:49:58.640
<v Speaker 1>it be a block of lockers driving down the road

0:49:58.800 --> 0:50:01.160
<v Speaker 1>with your stuff and everybody else's stuff in it? Yeah?

0:50:01.200 --> 0:50:03.000
<v Speaker 1>And what if some went across town. Need I know

0:50:03.040 --> 0:50:05.680
<v Speaker 1>that they would probably keep it in a central area.

0:50:05.840 --> 0:50:08.680
<v Speaker 1>Central area. Yeah, but people don't all like Like, let's

0:50:08.680 --> 0:50:10.480
<v Speaker 1>say that my next door neighbor and I both use

0:50:10.560 --> 0:50:13.000
<v Speaker 1>the same unit because we both live next door to

0:50:13.080 --> 0:50:15.880
<v Speaker 1>each other. We don't necessarily work anywhere close to each other,

0:50:16.440 --> 0:50:17.960
<v Speaker 1>so he might work on the other side of town.

0:50:18.080 --> 0:50:20.239
<v Speaker 1>He needs his umbrella, I need my umbrella. That car,

0:50:20.400 --> 0:50:24.239
<v Speaker 1>I mean, easily you could see problems with that model.

0:50:24.960 --> 0:50:26.680
<v Speaker 1>There was a similar model that I also let me

0:50:26.680 --> 0:50:29.320
<v Speaker 1>see once you think about this one by Scott so

0:50:29.920 --> 0:50:33.480
<v Speaker 1>talking about shared cars. Now, in the examples I've been

0:50:33.480 --> 0:50:36.600
<v Speaker 1>giving so far, it's essentially a fleet of service vehicles,

0:50:36.760 --> 0:50:38.680
<v Speaker 1>something along the lines of an uber or a lift,

0:50:39.000 --> 0:50:42.880
<v Speaker 1>only with no human drivers. Right. Yes, one of the

0:50:42.960 --> 0:50:47.839
<v Speaker 1>alternatives I heard, Shad Law actually mentioned this possibility, which

0:50:47.880 --> 0:50:54.280
<v Speaker 1>I think is almost as bad as the traveling locker idea.

0:50:55.200 --> 0:50:59.680
<v Speaker 1>What if instead of it being a fleet car, it's

0:51:00.040 --> 0:51:03.880
<v Speaker 1>a communal car among multiple households, and you own like

0:51:04.400 --> 0:51:08.239
<v Speaker 1>a sixth of that car. Can you imagine that working out?

0:51:09.320 --> 0:51:12.120
<v Speaker 1>How would you guarantee that the car would be available

0:51:12.239 --> 0:51:15.799
<v Speaker 1>for all the households? Well, I guess the man Okay,

0:51:15.880 --> 0:51:18.120
<v Speaker 1>this isn't as bad an idea as I mean, I

0:51:18.239 --> 0:51:20.800
<v Speaker 1>understand that it's it's not great. Yeah, and there's a

0:51:20.840 --> 0:51:23.120
<v Speaker 1>lot of flaws to this one as well, But um,

0:51:23.320 --> 0:51:25.560
<v Speaker 1>isn't this kind of the idea behind you know, the

0:51:25.680 --> 0:51:27.400
<v Speaker 1>the companies that allow you to have kind of a

0:51:27.800 --> 0:51:30.719
<v Speaker 1>lease on three different types of vehicles at one time

0:51:31.080 --> 0:51:33.359
<v Speaker 1>and you can use the one that you need when

0:51:33.400 --> 0:51:36.720
<v Speaker 1>you need it. So you lease, um, you know, a sedan,

0:51:37.080 --> 0:51:39.000
<v Speaker 1>you lease a compact car that's very good, you know

0:51:39.000 --> 0:51:41.959
<v Speaker 1>with mileage, and you lease, you know, a pickup truck

0:51:42.320 --> 0:51:44.200
<v Speaker 1>and when you need to pickup truck on the weekend,

0:51:44.400 --> 0:51:45.840
<v Speaker 1>you can rent that. You can you can have that

0:51:46.000 --> 0:51:47.920
<v Speaker 1>brought to you, or you can go get it. Um

0:51:48.160 --> 0:51:49.480
<v Speaker 1>use it for that amount of time. But what if

0:51:49.719 --> 0:51:52.440
<v Speaker 1>somebody else is using that that that sedan when you

0:51:52.520 --> 0:51:54.319
<v Speaker 1>need it, you know, they need it for the week

0:51:54.360 --> 0:51:55.719
<v Speaker 1>and you also need it for the week. I mean,

0:51:55.760 --> 0:51:58.839
<v Speaker 1>how does that all work? I don't Again, same set

0:51:58.880 --> 0:52:02.239
<v Speaker 1>of problems. I think, yeah, maybe a smaller scale than

0:52:02.239 --> 0:52:04.320
<v Speaker 1>the one that I'm talking I mean maybe if there's

0:52:05.360 --> 0:52:08.600
<v Speaker 1>maybe the only way I can see it working is

0:52:08.680 --> 0:52:10.760
<v Speaker 1>that you again go back to the fleet of cars,

0:52:11.200 --> 0:52:14.160
<v Speaker 1>so you've got a fleet of autonomous cars. You've got

0:52:14.200 --> 0:52:18.200
<v Speaker 1>a group of people who have essentially collectively invested so

0:52:18.400 --> 0:52:21.640
<v Speaker 1>that they own the quote unquote own one of those cars.

0:52:22.200 --> 0:52:24.400
<v Speaker 1>They don't actually own a car, they just own a

0:52:24.640 --> 0:52:27.359
<v Speaker 1>share time share. Yeah, it's like a timeshare for those

0:52:27.440 --> 0:52:30.640
<v Speaker 1>vehicles that are on demand. So if I call for

0:52:30.760 --> 0:52:32.759
<v Speaker 1>a car and my neighbor calls for a car, and

0:52:32.880 --> 0:52:36.360
<v Speaker 1>they're both and we're both on this plan, two different

0:52:36.400 --> 0:52:40.480
<v Speaker 1>cars come because of the way we've agreed with this fleet,

0:52:40.719 --> 0:52:44.839
<v Speaker 1>and it's the purchase price of the vehicle that ends

0:52:44.880 --> 0:52:48.000
<v Speaker 1>up covering the cost of the individual trip as opposed

0:52:48.040 --> 0:52:51.320
<v Speaker 1>to doing a trip, you know, a fee per trip,

0:52:51.640 --> 0:52:54.600
<v Speaker 1>like like a typical rental car. Now. Yeah, so essentially

0:52:54.600 --> 0:52:57.879
<v Speaker 1>it would be like, all right, well, collectively, we all

0:52:58.080 --> 0:53:01.680
<v Speaker 1>got together and we put in thirty five thousand dollars

0:53:01.960 --> 0:53:05.160
<v Speaker 1>to quote unquote buy a car. What that really does

0:53:05.280 --> 0:53:09.600
<v Speaker 1>is give us unlimited travel using the service within its

0:53:09.840 --> 0:53:14.080
<v Speaker 1>range of service, you know, assuming that it isn't you know,

0:53:14.320 --> 0:53:17.640
<v Speaker 1>state or a countrywide or whatever. Yeah, And I could

0:53:17.680 --> 0:53:20.920
<v Speaker 1>see it working that way maybe, but I can't see

0:53:20.960 --> 0:53:24.520
<v Speaker 1>it working in such a way where you actually physically

0:53:24.719 --> 0:53:28.279
<v Speaker 1>have one car to share between the multiple house that

0:53:28.280 --> 0:53:30.880
<v Speaker 1>would never work. Yeah, just wouldn't work out. There's got

0:53:30.960 --> 0:53:32.239
<v Speaker 1>to be a way around it, like you said, it's

0:53:32.239 --> 0:53:34.040
<v Speaker 1>got to be there's gotta be a pool of vehicles

0:53:34.080 --> 0:53:36.480
<v Speaker 1>to draw from. Yeah, it just wouldn't work. Yeah, but

0:53:36.640 --> 0:53:38.880
<v Speaker 1>this wasn't I wish you could have gone because I

0:53:38.960 --> 0:53:42.000
<v Speaker 1>wish you could have seen panels like days and some

0:53:42.080 --> 0:53:43.719
<v Speaker 1>of the other ones too, Like I was only able

0:53:43.760 --> 0:53:47.440
<v Speaker 1>to go to three panels total, but there were so many,

0:53:47.640 --> 0:53:50.759
<v Speaker 1>there were all about autonomous vehicles. It sounds fascinating. I

0:53:50.920 --> 0:53:53.040
<v Speaker 1>really didn't know until some of the you know, the

0:53:53.120 --> 0:53:55.880
<v Speaker 1>reports that I've been reading just for this podcast, that

0:53:56.239 --> 0:53:58.840
<v Speaker 1>this show is so focused on that type of technology.

0:53:58.880 --> 0:54:01.320
<v Speaker 1>I tend to think of more of cs to be

0:54:01.520 --> 0:54:04.600
<v Speaker 1>like that, Yeah, rather than this south By Southwest. Yeah,

0:54:04.600 --> 0:54:08.120
<v Speaker 1>it's it's It's interesting because south By Southwest Interactive for

0:54:08.320 --> 0:54:12.279
<v Speaker 1>many years was focused on mobile apps, like that was

0:54:12.360 --> 0:54:16.560
<v Speaker 1>the big thing, mobile apps and some gaming. But usually

0:54:16.600 --> 0:54:20.360
<v Speaker 1>you're talking about the next Twitter. You know. Merecat and

0:54:20.440 --> 0:54:24.239
<v Speaker 1>Periscope both came out in twenty fifteen. Meercat went under

0:54:24.280 --> 0:54:27.600
<v Speaker 1>in twenty sixteen. Periscope is still around because it's owned

0:54:27.600 --> 0:54:32.640
<v Speaker 1>by Twitter. Anyway, that's the kind of stuff you would expect,

0:54:32.760 --> 0:54:36.680
<v Speaker 1>But they had different tracks of programming under Interactive and

0:54:36.880 --> 0:54:39.920
<v Speaker 1>one of the tracks was titled Intelligent Future, and that's

0:54:39.960 --> 0:54:43.239
<v Speaker 1>where all the robotics and autonomous vehicles and AI all

0:54:43.280 --> 0:54:46.960
<v Speaker 1>those discussions fell under that. And so a lot of

0:54:47.000 --> 0:54:49.640
<v Speaker 1>it had to do with the future of cars, and

0:54:49.760 --> 0:54:53.960
<v Speaker 1>again not just autonomous cars, but the idea of what

0:54:54.320 --> 0:54:57.560
<v Speaker 1>what is it going to look like from multiple standpoints.

0:54:58.200 --> 0:55:00.400
<v Speaker 1>I think autonomous played a huge role because everyone just

0:55:00.440 --> 0:55:02.759
<v Speaker 1>assumes that's going to be part of the future, no

0:55:02.880 --> 0:55:05.160
<v Speaker 1>matter how it turns out. Yeah. You know, one thing

0:55:05.200 --> 0:55:07.000
<v Speaker 1>we should probably point out here is that we always

0:55:07.040 --> 0:55:10.279
<v Speaker 1>talk about how it's happening. It's it's incrementally happening. What's

0:55:10.280 --> 0:55:12.360
<v Speaker 1>going on, and we're getting little bits and pieces of

0:55:12.440 --> 0:55:14.160
<v Speaker 1>it now and we see it, you know, in our

0:55:14.200 --> 0:55:17.160
<v Speaker 1>everyday cars, but not the whole package yet. And the

0:55:17.239 --> 0:55:19.560
<v Speaker 1>whole package they always it seems like it's always ten

0:55:19.640 --> 0:55:21.439
<v Speaker 1>years out, is what they say. But yeah, I'm seeing

0:55:21.560 --> 0:55:25.080
<v Speaker 1>estimates now that range anywhere from three years to thirty years. Yes,

0:55:25.280 --> 0:55:27.880
<v Speaker 1>and those are all to be honest, those are all realistic.

0:55:28.200 --> 0:55:29.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it could take thirty years, it could be

0:55:30.480 --> 0:55:32.600
<v Speaker 1>faster than that. It could be we could I have

0:55:32.760 --> 0:55:35.799
<v Speaker 1>this by twenty twenty. You never know. Yeah, I think

0:55:35.920 --> 0:55:38.440
<v Speaker 1>I think three years is probably what we would we

0:55:38.440 --> 0:55:41.200
<v Speaker 1>would start to see actual vehicles make their way onto

0:55:41.239 --> 0:55:43.560
<v Speaker 1>the roads. Thirty years is where you get to the

0:55:43.560 --> 0:55:45.880
<v Speaker 1>point where you're at saturation. Yeah, and you know, I

0:55:46.040 --> 0:55:48.520
<v Speaker 1>know on this podcast, even especially in car stuff, but

0:55:48.600 --> 0:55:51.920
<v Speaker 1>on this one, we've we've mentioned before they're already out

0:55:51.920 --> 0:55:53.799
<v Speaker 1>there there cars that can drive you home from work

0:55:53.880 --> 0:55:57.040
<v Speaker 1>without you touching the wheel or doing anything. You but

0:55:57.160 --> 0:55:59.759
<v Speaker 1>they simply can't say it's an autonomous vate. You have

0:55:59.800 --> 0:56:01.680
<v Speaker 1>to be sitting down the wheel and allow it to

0:56:02.040 --> 0:56:03.640
<v Speaker 1>You can allow it to do it, but you have

0:56:03.719 --> 0:56:05.239
<v Speaker 1>to be there, and you have to be ready to

0:56:05.280 --> 0:56:07.680
<v Speaker 1>take control at anymore. And often often you'll get a

0:56:07.719 --> 0:56:11.120
<v Speaker 1>little little beep asking you to make sure you make

0:56:11.160 --> 0:56:13.359
<v Speaker 1>contact with the wheel to prove that you're still paying

0:56:13.400 --> 0:56:15.920
<v Speaker 1>attention and everything exactly. You're not taking a nap on

0:56:15.960 --> 0:56:17.520
<v Speaker 1>the way home. You don't want to, you know, those

0:56:17.560 --> 0:56:20.760
<v Speaker 1>companies don't want to be liable for a terrible accident.

0:56:20.920 --> 0:56:23.120
<v Speaker 1>So the three to thirty years we're talking about is

0:56:23.320 --> 0:56:26.360
<v Speaker 1>where the companies are actually confident enough to say this

0:56:26.560 --> 0:56:30.120
<v Speaker 1>is an autonomous self driving car. Let it do it. Yeah,

0:56:30.840 --> 0:56:34.320
<v Speaker 1>and I'm so glad you're able to join me on

0:56:34.400 --> 0:56:36.600
<v Speaker 1>this this episode and talk about this kind of stuff.

0:56:37.400 --> 0:56:39.320
<v Speaker 1>I know that I come across as I love to

0:56:39.440 --> 0:56:41.400
<v Speaker 1>needle you with these because you're the car guy and

0:56:41.880 --> 0:56:44.120
<v Speaker 1>it's fun. It's all good fun. I should also mention

0:56:44.520 --> 0:56:50.080
<v Speaker 1>that pretty much everyone's agreed that personal car ownership is

0:56:50.120 --> 0:56:52.720
<v Speaker 1>not ever gonna go away entirely in the United States,

0:56:52.840 --> 0:56:55.640
<v Speaker 1>that no one seemed to believe that that was the case.

0:56:57.160 --> 0:57:00.640
<v Speaker 1>People said that it may be that fewer people own

0:57:00.920 --> 0:57:04.160
<v Speaker 1>their own vehicles, but you'll you'll still be allowed to

0:57:04.239 --> 0:57:06.719
<v Speaker 1>own and operate your own vehicle. Yeah, I could see

0:57:06.719 --> 0:57:09.959
<v Speaker 1>that happening, especially for things like rural areas. It doesn't

0:57:10.000 --> 0:57:13.640
<v Speaker 1>make sense to have an autonomous car service out serving

0:57:14.239 --> 0:57:17.000
<v Speaker 1>way all the way. Rural areas, like you know, cattle

0:57:17.080 --> 0:57:18.960
<v Speaker 1>ranchers aren't going to have any need for that. Now,

0:57:19.080 --> 0:57:22.600
<v Speaker 1>this is a congested city situation. Yes, this is for urban,

0:57:22.800 --> 0:57:26.720
<v Speaker 1>dense urban environments, and it's not ideal for other situations.

0:57:27.160 --> 0:57:31.000
<v Speaker 1>So but one guy did say that he could envisioned

0:57:31.000 --> 0:57:34.520
<v Speaker 1>a future in which car ownership of like an actual

0:57:35.040 --> 0:57:40.160
<v Speaker 1>car owner, will be about as rare as horse owners

0:57:40.240 --> 0:57:43.280
<v Speaker 1>are today. Really. Yeah, so there are plenty of people

0:57:43.320 --> 0:57:48.480
<v Speaker 1>who still own horses, just not the general population. Yeah,

0:57:48.560 --> 0:57:51.000
<v Speaker 1>there's a there's a lot of wide open space out there,

0:57:51.120 --> 0:57:52.880
<v Speaker 1>and I think that, you know, that's where they'll be

0:57:53.480 --> 0:57:57.280
<v Speaker 1>still used. Of course, yeah, maybe in cities. You know,

0:57:57.360 --> 0:57:58.960
<v Speaker 1>I hate to say it, but there may be a

0:57:59.040 --> 0:58:00.720
<v Speaker 1>point where, you know, you can't drive into the city

0:58:00.760 --> 0:58:03.120
<v Speaker 1>in your own personal vehicle. You maybe have a giant

0:58:03.160 --> 0:58:04.920
<v Speaker 1>parking lot in the outskirts of the city and you

0:58:05.000 --> 0:58:07.160
<v Speaker 1>get out from there and then you take your city

0:58:07.880 --> 0:58:10.520
<v Speaker 1>city approved transportation once you're inside. And I wouldn't that

0:58:10.600 --> 0:58:13.920
<v Speaker 1>be something. I mean, it'd be a dramatic change in

0:58:14.000 --> 0:58:15.280
<v Speaker 1>the way that we do things now. I mean, it

0:58:15.440 --> 0:58:19.160
<v Speaker 1>would significantly changed the well the entire city scape. Really

0:58:19.480 --> 0:58:23.040
<v Speaker 1>everything would be different. So it's fascinating topic. And again,

0:58:23.120 --> 0:58:24.960
<v Speaker 1>thanks for inviting me in today to do this. I

0:58:25.040 --> 0:58:26.720
<v Speaker 1>always have fun talking with you, and I know you

0:58:26.840 --> 0:58:29.480
<v Speaker 1>like to rib me a little bit about car ownership

0:58:29.560 --> 0:58:31.880
<v Speaker 1>and you know the way it's going, and uh, you know,

0:58:31.960 --> 0:58:33.440
<v Speaker 1>I agree on a lot of this stuff. I mean,

0:58:33.480 --> 0:58:35.760
<v Speaker 1>I think we can have a decent conversation back and

0:58:35.840 --> 0:58:39.520
<v Speaker 1>forth about I understand that you know, things are moving

0:58:39.560 --> 0:58:42.480
<v Speaker 1>towards autonomous vehicles, but I also and I'm glad that

0:58:42.520 --> 0:58:44.320
<v Speaker 1>you said it too, that you know it's never gonna

0:58:44.360 --> 0:58:47.520
<v Speaker 1>go completely away. Well, and to be fair, we're so

0:58:48.440 --> 0:58:52.680
<v Speaker 1>so so in the baby stage of this, right, we're

0:58:52.720 --> 0:58:56.960
<v Speaker 1>in the earliest stages of this autonomous era. Sure that

0:58:57.840 --> 0:59:02.360
<v Speaker 1>making any definitive statement as autonomous cars will completely replace

0:59:02.480 --> 0:59:06.200
<v Speaker 1>manual cars, or that car ownership will completely become a

0:59:06.280 --> 0:59:10.000
<v Speaker 1>thing of the past, or even that manual cars will

0:59:10.160 --> 0:59:13.600
<v Speaker 1>no longer be allowed within city limits, any of those.

0:59:13.800 --> 0:59:16.240
<v Speaker 1>It's so premature to make any kind of statement like that.

0:59:17.880 --> 0:59:21.720
<v Speaker 1>And honestly, it may turn out that we just see

0:59:21.800 --> 0:59:25.000
<v Speaker 1>that the ideal mix is somewhere in the middle, with

0:59:25.720 --> 0:59:28.720
<v Speaker 1>a mixture of autonomous cars and manually driven cars. We

0:59:28.840 --> 0:59:33.600
<v Speaker 1>don't know. You know, the mathematical models suggests that if

0:59:33.600 --> 0:59:35.880
<v Speaker 1>you went all autonomous, you avoid a lot of problems,

0:59:35.960 --> 0:59:38.200
<v Speaker 1>but that's not necessarily the way it will actually shake

0:59:38.280 --> 0:59:40.080
<v Speaker 1>out in real life. Well, I'm with you. I try

0:59:40.120 --> 0:59:42.000
<v Speaker 1>to avoid the predictions because it just ends up making

0:59:42.040 --> 0:59:44.920
<v Speaker 1>you look like a fool later right when it happens eventually,

0:59:45.400 --> 0:59:48.120
<v Speaker 1>But that's pretty much status quo for me. Well, you

0:59:48.240 --> 0:59:51.320
<v Speaker 1>kind of have to though. You know, anyways, I really

0:59:51.440 --> 0:59:53.160
<v Speaker 1>I don't like to do that, but that I like

0:59:53.240 --> 0:59:55.920
<v Speaker 1>to just kind of sit back and and kind of

0:59:56.000 --> 0:59:57.960
<v Speaker 1>just take it all in because there's so many changes

0:59:58.000 --> 1:00:01.080
<v Speaker 1>happening right now. It's actually pretty exciting. Yeah. Yeah, I mean,

1:00:01.640 --> 1:00:05.120
<v Speaker 1>and you know, you got to remember the autonomous cars,

1:00:05.160 --> 1:00:07.920
<v Speaker 1>if they'd become a thing, like a real serious thing,

1:00:08.320 --> 1:00:11.760
<v Speaker 1>like most people believe, there are implications well beyond the

1:00:11.840 --> 1:00:15.400
<v Speaker 1>auto industry that things that could really be effective, like

1:00:15.840 --> 1:00:19.200
<v Speaker 1>like airline industry. You know, if you're able to jump

1:00:19.320 --> 1:00:22.479
<v Speaker 1>into an autonomously driven car and you can do work

1:00:22.960 --> 1:00:25.120
<v Speaker 1>or you can go to sleep and you are not

1:00:25.880 --> 1:00:28.400
<v Speaker 1>you don't need to get to whatever your destination is

1:00:28.480 --> 1:00:31.400
<v Speaker 1>within a couple of hours, that could really impact a

1:00:31.480 --> 1:00:34.520
<v Speaker 1>lot of airline travel. So well, yeah, I mean, okay,

1:00:34.640 --> 1:00:36.680
<v Speaker 1>I know we got to wrap up here, but you're

1:00:36.720 --> 1:00:38.480
<v Speaker 1>you're making me think of you know, the the uh

1:00:38.960 --> 1:00:41.600
<v Speaker 1>the kind of pros cons you you wagh if you're

1:00:41.640 --> 1:00:43.600
<v Speaker 1>making a short trip on a plane, you know, if

1:00:43.600 --> 1:00:46.000
<v Speaker 1>you're flying from here to or Lando, sure, yeah, which

1:00:46.080 --> 1:00:48.520
<v Speaker 1>is like like from here, it's like an hour little

1:00:48.520 --> 1:00:50.400
<v Speaker 1>a little less than an hour and a half flight. Yeah,

1:00:50.440 --> 1:00:52.360
<v Speaker 1>but then then you have to take an account. You

1:00:52.360 --> 1:00:53.760
<v Speaker 1>gotta get up early, you got to pack the car,

1:00:53.840 --> 1:00:55.440
<v Speaker 1>you gotta get to the air important park and all

1:00:55.480 --> 1:00:58.360
<v Speaker 1>that stuff. It ends up taking more than half the day.

1:00:59.160 --> 1:01:00.720
<v Speaker 1>But you could just drive there too, And if you

1:01:00.800 --> 1:01:03.560
<v Speaker 1>can do that in a way that doesn't it's not

1:01:03.680 --> 1:01:06.560
<v Speaker 1>taxing on you, right, it's it's it's actually comfortable and

1:01:06.640 --> 1:01:09.200
<v Speaker 1>you're in your own your own car. It's a lot

1:01:09.280 --> 1:01:12.880
<v Speaker 1>more comfortable than being crammed into an airplane. Sure, why

1:01:12.920 --> 1:01:14.920
<v Speaker 1>would you not do that? You have the opportunity to

1:01:15.000 --> 1:01:17.880
<v Speaker 1>stop at a specific place to have food rather than

1:01:17.960 --> 1:01:20.720
<v Speaker 1>just buying whatever little snack box happens will be on

1:01:20.760 --> 1:01:23.040
<v Speaker 1>the plane. Yeah, so you're right. It does change even

1:01:23.360 --> 1:01:25.760
<v Speaker 1>you know that short distance sure travel. Yeah, Now for

1:01:25.880 --> 1:01:30.320
<v Speaker 1>long distances, obviously, I think air travel unless you're determined

1:01:30.360 --> 1:01:34.080
<v Speaker 1>to do the great autonomous American road trip, I think

1:01:34.400 --> 1:01:38.120
<v Speaker 1>you're The airlines will still be very much a strong

1:01:38.240 --> 1:01:40.760
<v Speaker 1>player in that, but it will affect their bottom line,

1:01:40.960 --> 1:01:44.760
<v Speaker 1>and that will affect how they route planes, how they

1:01:44.840 --> 1:01:50.120
<v Speaker 1>design planes, how they how they price tickets. So there's

1:01:50.160 --> 1:01:54.520
<v Speaker 1>some big, potentially disruptive things that could happen ripple out

1:01:54.720 --> 1:01:57.680
<v Speaker 1>from the automotive industry out into many other ones, so

1:01:57.960 --> 1:02:01.320
<v Speaker 1>it's pretty interesting stuff. I hope you enjoyed that classic

1:02:01.400 --> 1:02:03.640
<v Speaker 1>episode of tech Stuff. Like I said at the beginning,

1:02:03.680 --> 1:02:06.480
<v Speaker 1>there have been a lot more accidents involving cars that

1:02:06.560 --> 1:02:11.600
<v Speaker 1>are in autonomous or semi autonomous modes. Obviously the most

1:02:11.680 --> 1:02:15.600
<v Speaker 1>publicized ones are Tesla, but it's not like Tesla has,

1:02:16.520 --> 1:02:21.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, the exclusive rights to accidents. It's just that

1:02:22.160 --> 1:02:26.200
<v Speaker 1>they tend to make headlines across the world when it happens.

1:02:26.400 --> 1:02:30.400
<v Speaker 1>And yeah, and of course Tesla has the ongoing issue

1:02:30.560 --> 1:02:34.480
<v Speaker 1>between saying calling its products things that make it sound

1:02:34.560 --> 1:02:38.280
<v Speaker 1>like they're autonomous vehicle products, while also saying this is

1:02:38.360 --> 1:02:41.400
<v Speaker 1>not an autonomous vehicle product, So we get into that

1:02:41.520 --> 1:02:44.720
<v Speaker 1>complication as well. If you have suggestions for topics I

1:02:44.720 --> 1:02:46.960
<v Speaker 1>should cover on future episodes of tech Stuff, please reach

1:02:47.000 --> 1:02:49.200
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1:03:14.640 --> 1:03:24.200
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