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Speaker 1: When the statue of limitations as up as I like

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Speaker 1: to say, I will gladly reveal to you what's been

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Speaker 1: going on on this here, I Josh, over the past

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks. There is so much happening in the sport.

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Speaker 1: Late November early December is where like eighty percent of

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Speaker 1: this sport happens. I'm not just talking about on the field,

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Speaker 1: although tonight Hi atap a thankful downtown Nashville, Tennessee, we

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Speaker 1: will talk about Rivalry week, so we'll largely be on

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Speaker 1: the field tonight. It's Tuesday night, November twenty first year

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Speaker 1: of our lower twenty twenty three early start time because

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Speaker 1: yours truly has to get on the road tonight and

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Speaker 1: make my way all the way down too Harris County,

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Speaker 1: Georgia for Thanksgiving, last show of the week. More on

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Speaker 1: our broadcast schedule in a second, But it is rivalry.

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Speaker 1: We will predict all the big games tonight. I have

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Speaker 1: got a metric ton of things to say to you

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Speaker 1: about Ohio State and Michigan. I think there is at

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Speaker 1: least the potential, I have to be honest with you,

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Speaker 1: the potential in the very near future that the college

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Speaker 1: football Playoff could have a very very good old fashioned

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Speaker 1: conundrum on their hands where they actually do have to

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Speaker 1: leave a deserving candidate out. Now, to my knowledge and

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Speaker 1: in my opinion, we really haven't faced that. I know

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Speaker 1: some of you think you're deserving teams have been left

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Speaker 1: out in the past. I didn't necessarily share your opinion.

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Speaker 1: And also, you know, I don't think people being mad

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Speaker 1: at the end of a given college football season is

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Speaker 1: reason to tear the whole thing down. A bunch of

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Speaker 1: you disagreed with me. You got your way on that.

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Speaker 1: But at least for this year, we have four teams

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Speaker 1: and we may have more than four candidates there TBD.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about that tonight. JP pole just wild and

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Speaker 1: laid into the season. Still wilding is the JP pole

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Speaker 1: we have got. We got some movement in the top

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Speaker 1: five that I'm not surprised by, but I think some

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Speaker 1: people will be. And I got several best bets for you.

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Speaker 1: I've also got to talk to you in just a

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Speaker 1: second about that. So they're watching us in Rainbow City, Alabama, Boone,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, Chicago, Illinois, and Manchester, United Kingdom, Manchester, England.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much for that. So, as I said,

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Speaker 1: we do not have a show Thursday because Thanksgiving, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: And you know, the game start Friday this week, so

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Speaker 1: I can't do Friday night lines cause half the games

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Speaker 1: will be over. So you need to stay tuned. Follow

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Speaker 1: on Instagram at late kick Josh. I may do Thursday night.

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Speaker 1: I may do Friday morning like we did last week

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Speaker 1: for Friday Night lines to a lot of fanfare. By

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Speaker 1: the way, a lot of you like that, so stay tuned.

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Speaker 1: I'll let you guys know in plenty of time. Just

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Speaker 1: make sure you're checking periodically and otherwise enjoy your families.

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Speaker 1: But before we do that, we have a lot of

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Speaker 1: games to break down. We got a jam packed show tonight,

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Speaker 1: and I appreciate you guys being tuned in. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's dive in Ohio State Michigan. The once Upon a

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Speaker 1: Saturday Tour will be in the Big House this Saturday.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be Jesse tells me why am I leaning

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Speaker 1: on Jesse for meteorological insight? Thirty eight degrees in cloudy

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Speaker 1: at kickoff, a non zero percent chance of precipitation, one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent chance of toxicity, and utter hatred. It's a

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Speaker 1: beautiful thing. It's what makes this sport great. Meman. One

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Speaker 1: of the very few areas that she I think was

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Speaker 1: a little misguided in is she told me hate, We'll

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Speaker 1: get you nowhere. And Meman never went to the game.

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Speaker 1: And that's all I'm gonna say about that. This is

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Speaker 1: a big noon kickoff. It is twelve Eastern, and you

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Speaker 1: can fill in the rest wherever you live. The stakes

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Speaker 1: are as high on this game as I can ever

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Speaker 1: remember in any regular season college football game. Just unbelievable.

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Speaker 1: If you have, if you have an NFL fan in

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Speaker 1: your life that kind of dabbles in college but they

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Speaker 1: can't really dive in. Or if you have maybe a

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Speaker 1: fiance or a significant other someone that you want to

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Speaker 1: introduce to our sport, cash in as many favors as

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Speaker 1: you need to get him in front of a TV

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Speaker 1: this Saturday, because this will be unbelievable. Have you listened

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Speaker 1: to Jim Harbaugh talk this week? Have you listened to

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Speaker 1: Ryan Day talk? Guys, Most of the time coaches are

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Speaker 1: just willing to lie and at least say they respect

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Speaker 1: the opponents they hate and don't respect. They won't even

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Speaker 1: lie this week. It's awesome. It's wonderful because I am

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Speaker 1: a winner. No matter what. I just get to stand

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Speaker 1: there on the field and watch it. Both of these

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Speaker 1: teams are as healthy as far as we can tell,

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Speaker 1: as they've been pretty much all year. Traveon Henderson looks

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Speaker 1: as good as he's looked. You know, Blake Korum did

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Speaker 1: not play in this game last year. He suited up.

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Speaker 1: I stood there and watched him warm up. He played

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Speaker 1: like one or two plays and then he was done.

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Speaker 1: We get both of those guys, barring something in practice,

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Speaker 1: this week. We get both of those guys. It looks

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Speaker 1: like at full strength this week. So a million different

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Speaker 1: angles we can go here. I remember being at this

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Speaker 1: game last year. I remember so vividly. I told you

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Speaker 1: guys the story we went to. I think I ended

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Speaker 1: up going to both press conferences. I think I did so.

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Speaker 1: After the game, we come back down the tunnel. Uncle

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Speaker 1: Dennis and I were there and we did some postgame

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Speaker 1: work for CBS. Ohio State had just lost the game,

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Speaker 1: and some of the seniors on the Ohio State team

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Speaker 1: came out of the locker room after they had been dismissed.

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Speaker 1: You know, you're supposed to go back to your dorm,

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Speaker 1: go home. Well, a lot of them were never going

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Speaker 1: to play in that stadium again. And so they kind

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Speaker 1: of trickled back down the tunnel, sat up in the

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Speaker 1: stands and think about this. This sucked for us. We're

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Speaker 1: doing our live hit and you got players scattered throughout

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Speaker 1: the end zone, some of them sitting on the turf,

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Speaker 1: some of them sitting on the third or fourth row

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Speaker 1: of the stands, just balling their eyes out. Never forget that.

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Speaker 1: And I remember thinking to myself walking out of the building.

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Speaker 1: Explosive plays just completely decided this game. Michigan last year

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Speaker 1: had five hundred and thirty yards on Ohio State, and

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Speaker 1: three hundred and eighty two of them came on six plays.

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Speaker 1: And you saw the game as well as I did,

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Speaker 1: and it's so easy to say, oh, if they just

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Speaker 1: limit the big plays, it's a totally different game. But

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Speaker 1: they didn't. Like, that's a football game. That's kind of

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Speaker 1: like saying, well, if we didn't turn the ball over,

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Speaker 1: or we should have this, or we should have that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: but you didn't. If you should have, you would have.

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Speaker 1: This is how the game actually works. So they didn't

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Speaker 1: limit them last year. Well, we fast forward a year

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Speaker 1: and all that changes is the venue really? And I

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Speaker 1: ask myself the same thing. I ask what happens if

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Speaker 1: Ohio State limits the explosive plays? And I also ask

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Speaker 1: can they limit explosive plays? I was at Michigan Penn

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Speaker 1: State a couple of weeks ago. If you remember that game,

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Speaker 1: Penn State got really good edge pressure early on Michigan,

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Speaker 1: and then Michigan adjusted to their offensive credit and they

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Speaker 1: just ran the ball on Penn State the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day. I mean they ran it and ran it

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Speaker 1: and ran it on Penn State the rest of the day.

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Speaker 1: The first thing I wonder about this is, independent of

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Speaker 1: the pressure Ohio State, JTT could have his breakout game. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they could get pressure on JJ. But independent of that,

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Speaker 1: I just wonder if Michigan really is dead said on

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Speaker 1: running the ball down Ohio State's throat, I wonder if

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Speaker 1: they can. I wonder how much success they have there

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Speaker 1: because it wasn't a classical run the ball down your

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Speaker 1: throat situation last year. It was rip a few explosive

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Speaker 1: plays and otherwise don't have a ton of big success

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Speaker 1: in the run game. But the stat sheet looks like

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Speaker 1: we did if you look at the yards per carry, Well,

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Speaker 1: if we limit the explosive plays and then on the

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Speaker 1: other side, hold serve at the line of scrimmage and

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Speaker 1: you forced JJ McCarthy to beat you with his arm, Kenny,

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Speaker 1: And how many points does Michigan need because they got

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Speaker 1: one of the saltiest defenses in the country as well.

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Speaker 1: These are the kinds of things that I think will

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Speaker 1: ultimately decide this game. But it's a Jim Knowles game.

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Speaker 1: Out of all the people who are integral parts of

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Speaker 1: what the outcome will be Saturday, one of them's not

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Speaker 1: even on the field, Like I think Jim Knowles for

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Speaker 1: all to talk about Harball not being on the field.

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Speaker 1: Jim Knowles that defensive coordinator that Ryan Day brought in

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Speaker 1: and had him last year, and now I think fully

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Speaker 1: has him ingrained and all those players playing with kind

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Speaker 1: of his thumb print collectively on that defense. I think

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Speaker 1: it's the best interior defensive line that Michigan's faced all year.

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Speaker 1: And so I wonder what kind of success they have

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Speaker 1: running the ball. I wonder, in other words, if it

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Speaker 1: doesn't work out and if you see Michigan kind of

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Speaker 1: get stoned at the line of scrimmage early, is JJ

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Speaker 1: McCarthy able to make plays with his arm? Because that's

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Speaker 1: The next very important point in this game that I

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Speaker 1: don't think it takes an expert to figure out, is

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Speaker 1: you hadn't seen McCarthy with a touchdown pass the last

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Speaker 1: three games. It's I don't think it's that easy to

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Speaker 1: figure out. Like I've watched that dude play several years now.

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Speaker 1: I know he's more effective than that recent stat line

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Speaker 1: where to indicate against Penn State they flat out didn't

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Speaker 1: need to do it last week. I could reasonably explain

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Speaker 1: that away as letdown, spot, look ahead, spot, defense, and

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Speaker 1: special teams carried the day. Maybe it's just an off

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Speaker 1: game individually, like you can explain that stuff away. But

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Speaker 1: if I'm right, if that stuff's explainable, and this is

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Speaker 1: the game JJ McCarthy shows up in, or if he's

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Speaker 1: the kind of player that shows up in big games,

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Speaker 1: obviously this is the game he shows up in. And

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Speaker 1: then the next point that I think about is what

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Speaker 1: does JJ McCarthy winning the game for Michigan look like.

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Speaker 1: If McCord wins the game for Ohio State, he just

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Speaker 1: won the game throwing the ball. If JJ wins it,

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Speaker 1: he may end up putting up eighty three yards rushing

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Speaker 1: and one hundred and ninety five yards through the air.

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Speaker 1: But they're really good on third down. They're really good

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Speaker 1: and opportunity stick in the red zone and their defense

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Speaker 1: helps him out, and they play a complimentary style, which

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Speaker 1: Michigan's done all year. That's the kind of game it

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Speaker 1: could look like. But no passing touchdowns the last three

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Speaker 1: weeks i've watched it. It just feels off. I don't

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Speaker 1: know what it is. It just feels off. Kyle McCord

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Speaker 1: the biggest The biggest concern I have with him and

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Speaker 1: talking about the comparison with the quarterbacks, is consistency. I

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Speaker 1: think an Ohio State fan will tell you the same thing,

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Speaker 1: and I know they would because I have a group

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Speaker 1: text going with some of them on the eye Josh

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Speaker 1: right now, I think that if you were to get

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Speaker 1: his best game, you feel pretty confident. Travon Henderson's back

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Speaker 1: full strength. You feel pretty confident. But that's an if,

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Speaker 1: you know, if you were to get that, well, no

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Speaker 1: one knows that you know. And you're also trotting a

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Speaker 1: guy out to start for the first time in this game,

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Speaker 1: whereas Michigan's got the luxury of their guy having already

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Speaker 1: played in this game. Ohio State also is one hundred

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Speaker 1: and fourteenth, and turnovers force this year Michigan fourth in

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Speaker 1: turnovers lost. So turnovers are random, I will grant you that,

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Speaker 1: But if you're trying to bank on the fact that

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Speaker 1: you win those sort of intangible or unpredictable stat categories mathematically,

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Speaker 1: it wouldn't appear that the odds are overwhelmingly in Ohio

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Speaker 1: State's favor. And look, Michigan is so player led, veteran,

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Speaker 1: senior laden. It's just not the kind of team that's

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Speaker 1: handing you a game. You have got to go in

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Speaker 1: there and you got to beat them. Now. I think

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Speaker 1: Ohio State's got a team that can do it. So

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Speaker 1: it's not the end of the world if you're neutral

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Speaker 1: in turnover margin, if you don't score on special teams,

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Speaker 1: if you don't block a punt, as long as you

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Speaker 1: limit them from doing it the same way. I think

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Speaker 1: the number two position at cornerback for both of these

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Speaker 1: teams is really interesting. When you gauge other coaches, they

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Speaker 1: kind of seem to talk about, at least in the

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Speaker 1: Big Ten, they kind of talk about the two corner

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Speaker 1: position for both of these teams, And if you have

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Speaker 1: the personnel, there are plays to be made there. If

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Speaker 1: that's the case. All due respect to Roman Wilson and

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Speaker 1: Cornelis Johnson, who was big in this game last year.

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Speaker 1: By the way, I look at the potential of Marvin

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Speaker 1: Harrison and a mechic Buka, and you mix in tight

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Speaker 1: ends on both sides of that equation as well. I

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Speaker 1: like Ohio State's opportunity. Again, if you have consistency, if

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Speaker 1: you have time to throw the ball which falls back

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Speaker 1: on that offensive line, if you have all those things,

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Speaker 1: Ohio State can make a ton of plays through the air.

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Speaker 1: Theoretically could do that the players are there. In other words,

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Speaker 1: there's always talk about hype going into these games. I

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Speaker 1: was always talking about mentality and edge, and to me,

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Speaker 1: it's more about sustainability because it is one of the

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Speaker 1: easiest things in the world to get yourself up to

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Speaker 1: play this game. It is infinitely harder to think back

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Speaker 1: two years ago, for example, when you could feel Michigan

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Speaker 1: start to take the game over, when you realized that

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Speaker 1: Michigan was actually there and competitively and physically they were

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Speaker 1: going to match you and maybe exceed you. Ohio State

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Speaker 1: folded and Michigan flexed on, and Michigan started leaning and

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Speaker 1: Ohio State crumbled. Now that's two years ago. Last year,

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Speaker 1: like Ohio State crumbled at all, I thought they matched them.

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Speaker 1: I just thought explosive plays went to Michigan's way. They

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Speaker 1: executed when Ohio State didn't. That's the way the game

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Speaker 1: was decided. My point is, leading up to this, how

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Speaker 1: do you sustain that intensity? You will get hit and

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Speaker 1: you will land hits. How do you sustain it? I

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Speaker 1: felt like all the way back in spring and then

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Speaker 1: going into media days and whatnot, being around Ohio State

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Speaker 1: a little bit, my biggest question with them was now

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Speaker 1: that you tasted your own blood twice and you realize

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Speaker 1: why that game is being lost. You tried to go

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Speaker 1: one way, they countered another way. Their ways had the edge,

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Speaker 1: and you try and adopt and harden portions of your

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Speaker 1: own infrastructure to match that. Are you there? I felt

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Speaker 1: like going into this year they would be there, but

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Speaker 1: ultimately we got to wait for the game to be

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Speaker 1: played on Saturday. So Colin, let's take a look at

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Speaker 1: what the model thinks. Currently at FanDuel, Michigan is minus

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Speaker 1: three and a half. The total is forty five and

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Speaker 1: a half, so a lower scoring game is expected. Our

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Speaker 1: models a little bit shorter. There, we've got Michigan minus two.

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Speaker 1: I in the preseason predicted Ohio State to win the

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Speaker 1: Big Ten because I felt like there was an edge

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Speaker 1: on that team that even if both teams were healthy

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Speaker 1: and with the team or with the game being in

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Speaker 1: ann Arbor late in the year, I felt like they

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Speaker 1: had addressed the necessary compartments of their team that lacked

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Speaker 1: the last two years. And I thought they got really intentional,

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Speaker 1: really after the Michigan and Georgia losses last year, about

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Speaker 1: evolving in the areas they needed to evolve in. Didn't

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Speaker 1: feel like they were a long way off. There was

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Speaker 1: never a big gap or anything like that. I felt

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Speaker 1: like they did that. Nothing has brought me off that

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Speaker 1: this year. So this is a highly competitive games. It's

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Speaker 1: coin flip fifty five to forty five either way. But

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Speaker 1: I've seen nothing to back me off that opinion, and

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Speaker 1: so I'm going Ohio State to win, and therefore I'm

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Speaker 1: also going Ohio State to cover. Wouldn't be shocked if

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Speaker 1: the outcome win either way. But later in the show,

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Speaker 1: we'll talk about what happens if this goes either way.

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Speaker 1: If Michigan wins it, if Ohio State wins it, what

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Speaker 1: happens with the loser. I just want you guys in

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Speaker 1: the immediacy to think about this. As I said, if

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Speaker 1: you've got someone who has never really been into college football,

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Speaker 1: lay out the stakes for him here. I know you've

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Speaker 1: got to be a fan to fully understand how big

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Speaker 1: this is. But you've got a team in Michigan that

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Speaker 1: all season long you've had in your mind parked in

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Speaker 1: the number one, number two, maybe number three spot, and

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Speaker 1: lately it's been number one or number two, And most

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Speaker 1: playoff projections I've seen have Michigan penciled into the playoff.

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Speaker 1: Therefore they win the Big Ten championship because they won

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Speaker 1: this game. Theoretically, and over the span of four quarters Saturday,

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Speaker 1: that could all evaporate that they are out of the

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Speaker 1: Big Ten picture. They're probably out of the playoff picture.

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Speaker 1: All of their preseason goals are out the window. You

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Speaker 1: look at a guy like JJ McCarthy, You look a

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Speaker 1: lot of these seniors and these upperclassmen that still leave

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Speaker 1: Michigan having never won a playoff game. That stuff changes

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Speaker 1: over one afternoon. If they lose, if they win, if

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Speaker 1: Michigan wins, I don't really know that I can put

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Speaker 1: into proper context how toxic the the narrative will be

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Speaker 1: that forms around Ryan Day. It's already there. I'm not

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Speaker 1: talking about from rival fans either, I'm talking about his

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Speaker 1: own fan base. If your guy loses a third straight

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Speaker 1: to Michigan and this time against their backup head coach,

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Speaker 1: I think you understand where that's going. I'm not sitting

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Speaker 1: here telling you I agree with it. I'm just saying

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Speaker 1: it's reality, and sometimes my opinion is not held by

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Speaker 1: the masses. I think you know where that's going. This

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Speaker 1: is a very unique game because it is its own season.

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Speaker 1: Even though they designate it just seven days for the

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Speaker 1: game to have it, it is its own season. It's its

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Speaker 1: own little ecosystem, and it's amazing to witness. And we're

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Speaker 1: going to be there for the third year in a row.

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Speaker 1: By the slimmest of margins. I'm going with Ohio State

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Speaker 1: to win the game, and Ohio State therefore to cover

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Speaker 1: as a short underdog. Nevertheless, whoever wins the game, we

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Speaker 1: will have the shirt available in the Peate State store

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Speaker 1: Paytstate material dot com for about the next four days

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Speaker 1: because the game doesn't happen until Saturday and then it

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Speaker 1: will disappear. And so there it is. Michigan Stadium, the

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Speaker 1: Big House, this Saturday. Memorable, very memorable. No matter the outcome.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on because we have a ton more games

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Speaker 1: to get to. I do want to remind you, guys,

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Speaker 1: you have not seen me talk about the transfer portal.

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Speaker 1: Have you haven't delved into it. I am biding my

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Speaker 1: time because I know it's about to be crazy. But

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Speaker 1: we've had so much other stuff going on. But that's

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Speaker 1: going to change in a little while. Not on this

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Speaker 1: show tonight, but it's going to change in a little while.

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Speaker 1: December fourth is the day everybody behind the scenes is

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Speaker 1: talking about it. December fourth is the day. That's when

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Speaker 1: the Transfer portal opens up. Total tsunami coming. Mike Elko

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Speaker 1: put it best at Duke. I don't really think, he said,

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Speaker 1: I don't really think the public's aware of what's about

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Speaker 1: to happen. Gonna be crazy. There will be a huge

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Speaker 1: transfer portal show over on the twenty four seven Sports

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel. Go ahead, it's November twenty first, right now.

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Speaker 1: I'm giving you two weeks advanced warning. It's gonna be

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Speaker 1: must see. I'll be involved with it. That's not what

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Speaker 1: makes it must see. I'm just saying I'm gonna be

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Speaker 1: involved with it. It's gonna be from ten am to

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Speaker 1: three thirty. It's kind of like signing Day. It's just

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Speaker 1: a different kind of available prospect. That's over on the

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Speaker 1: twenty four seven Sports YouTube channel. But man, trust me,

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Speaker 1: on the other side of Rivalry Week, we will start

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Speaker 1: to cover the transfer portal in earnest. It's gonna be unbelievable.

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Speaker 1: All the coaching staffs are ready for it. Well, they're

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Speaker 1: preparing for it. It's gonna be unbelievable. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: get to several more games here. We got a lot

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Speaker 1: to get to. The Iron Bowl is this Saturday, Alabama

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Speaker 1: at Auburn. Alabama is a fourteen and a half point favorite.

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Speaker 1: The game is Saturday, three thirty Eastern over on CBS.

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Speaker 1: I've got two kind of ways of thinking that are

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Speaker 1: clashing in my head right now. I've got the November

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Speaker 1: theory and I've got the Jerden hair history theory. So

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Speaker 1: in November. The November theory is, if a team is

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Speaker 1: surging and then a team is fading, there's usually not

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Speaker 1: the rebound, there's usually not the regression to the mean

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Speaker 1: You've just got teams on permanent trajectories a lah Georgia

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Speaker 1: versus Tennessee last week, and one team just maybe out

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Speaker 1: of gas, and another team is about to completely roll

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Speaker 1: that team. And that may be the situation we're in Saturday.

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Speaker 1: But then as soon as the angel on this shoulder

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Speaker 1: says that, the other angel, the pro Auburn angel, comes

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Speaker 1: in and says, yeah, but you know what it's like

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Speaker 1: when Bama goes into Jordan Hare Stadium in November, And

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Speaker 1: I've just witnessed it too many times to ignore the

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Speaker 1: Orange and Blue angel over here, is my point. So

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Speaker 1: these are very conflicting ideologies going on in my head

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Speaker 1: right now. This is just a day in my life.

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Speaker 1: This is happening upstairs all the time. I just don't

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Speaker 1: talk about it a lot. And the company, the company

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Speaker 1: offers counseling to me, I just don't take them up

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Speaker 1: on it. I depend on you guys instead. Auburn's got

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Speaker 1: to deflate this game if they have a shot at

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Speaker 1: pulling this upset they've got. I can't believe these words

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Speaker 1: are gonna come out of my mouth. Auburn has to

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Speaker 1: do to Alabama what New Mexico State did to Auburn.

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Speaker 1: There you go, guys, I said it, pay me my money.

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Speaker 1: You dared me, I wouldn't. They've got to though, New

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Speaker 1: Mexico State. Do you realize they held Auburn to eight

390
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Speaker 1: total possessions last week? Auburn ran forty five plays, and

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Speaker 1: Auburn's got to do the exact same thing to Alabama.

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Speaker 1: They probably got to be plus one or plus two turnovers.

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Speaker 1: They got a limit possessions. They've got a harass Jalen

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Speaker 1: Milroe kind of like teams did earlier in the year,

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Speaker 1: and they got to just hope that he's not accurate

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Speaker 1: downfield as they're dedicating extra bodies to harass him like

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Speaker 1: A and M did. A and M got to him,

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Speaker 1: but A and M paid the price over the top.

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Speaker 1: Auburn's got a hope for best of both worlds there

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Speaker 1: Auburn's four and oh also, when they have an individual

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Speaker 1: run the ball for one hundred or more, I'm not

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Speaker 1: quite sure they eclipsed that mark against Alabama. But if

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Speaker 1: they can do these things, if they can reach these benchmarks,

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Speaker 1: and they can stun Georgia or stun Alabama early like

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Speaker 1: they did Georgia grab a ten to nothing lead. Who knows.

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Speaker 1: Here's the problem, one of several as I see them.

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Speaker 1: There's a little pre padlocked stat for you. In the

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Speaker 1: Iron Bowl, Auburn is eighty seventh and explosive plays allowed.

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Speaker 1: That's what Alabama does. That's what Jalen Milrod does. Bama's

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Speaker 1: ninth in the country. Milroe is one of the best

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks in the country and doing it it should allow Alabama.

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Speaker 1: Should allow Alabama to jump on them early, avoid the

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Speaker 1: alternative happening. And if they do, if Alabama jumps on

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Speaker 1: them early, full on murder ball in the second half.

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Speaker 1: That's the recipe. That's the script. You have to flip.

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Speaker 1: If you're Peyton Thorn, if you're Hugh Freeze, if you're Auburn.

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Speaker 1: Alabama's passing attack also the realize. The other reason I

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Speaker 1: don't have a ton of confidence in Auburn here is,

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Speaker 1: unlike earlier in the year, Bama's not leaning on one

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Speaker 1: or two receivers the past four games. Listen to this.

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Speaker 1: Eight different guys caught passes in the Tennessee game, eight

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Speaker 1: different guys caught passes in the LSU game, ten different

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Speaker 1: guys caught passes in the Kentucky game, and Jermaine Burton,

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Speaker 1: their number one was out that game, and nine guys

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Speaker 1: caught passes against Shannon last week. So Alabama spreading the

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Speaker 1: ball around, which greatly reduces the odds of you keying

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Speaker 1: or bracketing on any one or two guys. If you do,

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Speaker 1: They've got other options, which I felt like at the

429
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,200
Speaker 1: beginning of the year. I just thought they totally underutilized

430
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:25,480
Speaker 1: and mismanage their wide receiver room. That's been a theme

431
00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:27,479
Speaker 1: for a couple of years. Up there now or down there?

432
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:29,080
Speaker 1: I guess I'm in Nashville, so it's down there now.

433
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,280
Speaker 1: So having said all that, let's take a look at

434
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:34,359
Speaker 1: what the model things cause the odds presented by fan

435
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 1: duel on this game or Bama minus fourteen and a half.

436
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 1: The number is not fat enough. They are baking past

437
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 1: iron bowls into that number. That's the only reason it's

438
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:46,000
Speaker 1: that low. And I don't think it's a trap. I

439
00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 1: think the numbers should be up closer to seventeen. So

440
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,560
Speaker 1: there's nothing hidden here. To me. I'm taking Bama to win,

441
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 1: I'm taking Bama to cover. I just think they're rolling

442
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 1: at the right time, and I think Auburn is fading

443
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 1: at the wrong time. And did you hear Hugh Freeze Monday?

444
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 1: Did you hear the Auburn head coach stepped to the podium.

445
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 1: He stepped to the podium and probably said the thing

446
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:09,399
Speaker 1: I would least like to hear. He said, it's Iron

447
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 1: Bowl week and there's still a fog over our team

448
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,160
Speaker 1: from the New Mexico State game. I would like us

449
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:20,120
Speaker 1: to have a little more intensity. That's not good, friends,

450
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 1: that's stuff supposed to be a given any given week,

451
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 1: but especially an Iron Bowl week. So I respect that,

452
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 1: you know what out of Jorden Hare Stadium and its

453
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 1: ability to just lean in on Alabama seemingly as an environment,

454
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:35,639
Speaker 1: I don't think that's going to be a four quarter

455
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 1: issue for Alabama. They'll weather in early storm if they

456
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:43,440
Speaker 1: need to. I think Alabama will be okay. Saturday. You'll

457
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 1: be okay because of them academy sports and outdoors. You'll

458
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:49,639
Speaker 1: be okay if you need a tent, and you'll be

459
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 1: okay if you need let's just say, pickleball equipment. You'll

460
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 1: be okay if you need a grill, but you also

461
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,880
Speaker 1: may be okay if you need ten thousand dollars in gift.

462
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 1: Two of you are going to be okay if you

463
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 1: need SEC Championship Game tickets, because they're giving both of

464
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 1: those things away a ten K Academy gift card and

465
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,919
Speaker 1: two SEC Championship Game tickets And all you have to

466
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:15,440
Speaker 1: do to enter is download and log into the Academy app.

467
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 1: That's it, and then you're registered. And I have every

468
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 1: finger available crossed and thumbs that someone in our audience

469
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 1: wins this even if you don't stop by the store

470
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 1: or go to academy dot com pick up some big

471
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 1: league chew, pick up a new bike, maybe both. I

472
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 1: don't know how you like to live your life, but

473
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:36,119
Speaker 1: however you like to live it if you're active at all,

474
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,199
Speaker 1: which if I know my audience like I think I do.

475
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 1: You guys are Academy Sports and Outdoors. Has you hooked up?

476
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 1: And by the way, the reason you don't have to

477
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 1: pay to watch this show or listen to it is

478
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 1: because of Academy. So little golf clap, which reminds me

479
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 1: you can get pretty good golfing equipment there too. Thank

480
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:56,879
Speaker 1: you to Academy. Do we have a conundrum on the horizon,

481
00:23:57,160 --> 00:23:59,119
Speaker 1: that's the next question. I have a little sit from

482
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 1: the chalice tonight Colin, I think this will be a

483
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 1: good endpoint for this segment. So about a month ago,

484
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 1: I started to see these graphics, some generated by my

485
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 1: own employer, that showed what would happen if every favorite

486
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 1: kept winning, and I laughed. Three weeks ago, I saw

487
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:24,160
Speaker 1: another one and I laughed. Two weeks ago, I saw

488
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,679
Speaker 1: one and I chuckled. Last week I saw one and

489
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:31,360
Speaker 1: I just stared at it immunity. And then this week

490
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,880
Speaker 1: I'm looking at him saying, oh boy, this is real.

491
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 1: This could actually happen. And what I'm talking about is perhaps,

492
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 1: for the first time in the playoff, we could have

493
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 1: more than four deserving teams. Let me stop. Let me stop,

494
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 1: because you just some of you disagreed with what I

495
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 1: just said. Some of you can remember several years where

496
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 1: you argued that the fifth team or the sixth team

497
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 1: should have been in. I didn't say we've been free

498
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 1: of debate. I didn't say we've avoided people being mad.

499
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 1: I said to me, there has not been a year

500
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,159
Speaker 1: where we had more than four deserving teams. And if

501
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:10,719
Speaker 1: you really want to go back, we could go back

502
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:15,400
Speaker 1: to like twenty fourteen and that whole Baylor TCU thing

503
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 1: in the Big Twelve. Okay, I'll grant you that one,

504
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 1: but by and large, a lot of the whaling and

505
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 1: gnashing of teeth has been a moot point to me

506
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:31,720
Speaker 1: because I thought that deserving versus qualifying was not differentiated enough, like, yeah,

507
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 1: there were teams in the mix, but truly deserving. I

508
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 1: don't really think we've left many deserving candidates out. However,

509
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 1: we're sitting here with Washington undefeated right now, We've got

510
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:43,879
Speaker 1: Florida State undefeated. The Big Ten, in all likelihood is

511
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 1: going to produce someone undefeated. Texas has won loss and

512
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 1: they are the favorites to win the Big Twelve. Georgia

513
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 1: may be undefeated. We've got too many teams if the

514
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:56,920
Speaker 1: favorites keep winning, and not enough slots. So I'm here

515
00:25:56,960 --> 00:26:01,120
Speaker 1: tonight to try and I guess walk you through how

516
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,119
Speaker 1: some of this could play out. But if it doesn't

517
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:05,679
Speaker 1: play out, how I think it should be handled. The

518
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 1: Alabama situation is front and present in the room because

519
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 1: Alabama does not control their own destiny. It's very popular

520
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 1: around Crimson circles right now to say, hey, if we win,

521
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 1: we're in. Well, maybe you are, maybe you aren't. I

522
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 1: will tell you definitively right now. If if Washington keeps winning,

523
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,639
Speaker 1: you won't be in over an undefeated Washington. You just won't.

524
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,159
Speaker 1: Whether I think you should or not, whether I'd favor

525
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 1: you or not, You're not going to be in over them.

526
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 1: You will not be in over an undefeated Big Ten champion. Obviously,

527
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 1: I don't think you'll be in over an undefeated FSU,

528
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 1: but I could be wrong there. We're going to have

529
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 1: the playoff committee unveil their new rankings in like the

530
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 1: next hour. Uh, you know my thoughts on that, And

531
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 1: if you don't, I'll circle back to it in a second.

532
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 1: And you're you're not going to be in over Texas either. Like,

533
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 1: this is another point of contention a lot of people

534
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 1: are making, and I'm just I'm wondering how you're even

535
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:02,360
Speaker 1: debating this. How are you guys wasting precious oxygen debating

536
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 1: whether Alabama would get in over Texas if that was

537
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,959
Speaker 1: the resume comparison. Bama's not getting in over Texas, nor

538
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 1: should they. Texas came in your house and beat you.

539
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 1: I don't care how long ago it was. If teams

540
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,360
Speaker 1: are even roughly comparable at the end of the year,

541
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:20,639
Speaker 1: resume wise, you're using the head to head. That's the

542
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 1: whole reason you play football games. So for the record,

543
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 1: I'd favor Alabama today if they played Texas on a

544
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 1: neutral field. It doesn't matter because this is paper and

545
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 1: they play the games, or at least they should in

546
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 1: God's eyes on natural grass. And I watched those teams

547
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 1: play and Texas won. Texas beat them in their own building.

548
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 1: They emptied Bryant Denny Staium out midway through the fourth quarter.

549
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 1: You're not getting in over Texas North, should you. You

550
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,159
Speaker 1: may get in over FSU if the committee deems the

551
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 1: value of Jordan Travis to be that significant. But to me,

552
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,239
Speaker 1: Bama's best shot at getting in the playoff if they

553
00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,359
Speaker 1: go and beat Georgia, if they beat Auburn and Georgia

554
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 1: is a resume comparison against Oregon, because then I'll listen

555
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,919
Speaker 1: to you, because I don't think Oregon's resume at the

556
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:10,920
Speaker 1: end of the line, if they're a one loss PAC

557
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 1: twelve champ overtakes Alabama's as a one loss SEC champ.

558
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 1: So stop wasting your time on the Bama Texas thing.

559
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:21,439
Speaker 1: Bama's best shot if it comes down to one spot

560
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 1: for two remaining teams is getting in over Oregon. That's

561
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 1: the way I see that. Now, the next thing that

562
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 1: I want to circle back and address is this whole

563
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:33,920
Speaker 1: FSU should be left out because of Jordan Travis. Nonsense

564
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 1: in my mind, now that I know there are strong

565
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 1: feelings on this out there right now, so let me

566
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 1: state my case. If Florida State beats Florida, and if

567
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 1: Florida State goes to the ACC championship game and beats

568
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 1: Louisville and they are an undefeated ACC champion, there is

569
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 1: no world where I think they should be left out

570
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 1: of the playoff. Okay, so here are the counter arguments

571
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 1: to that. Just so you can make sure I understand

572
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 1: your points, I'll make your points for you. You think if

573
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 1: you disagree with me, at least you think that they

574
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 1: either haven't played a strong enough schedule, which I disagree with,

575
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 1: or you think the value of them losing Jordan Travis

576
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 1: should be taken into account and it should be understood

577
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 1: that if they played the whole year without him, they

578
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 1: wouldn't be undefeated. Therefore, they should be judged and rated

579
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 1: based on the team they are now instead of the

580
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 1: team that they had been with him. And I listen

581
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 1: to that, and I grant you there's logic behind it.

582
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 1: I don't think Florida State's a top ten team without

583
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 1: Jordan Travis. I'm about to show you that later in

584
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 1: this show. I've got Jesse where I have Florida State.

585
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 1: I'm like thirteenth or something like that in my Power ratings,

586
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 1: just to show you how much I valued him. But

587
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 1: like I said a second ago with Bama and Texas,

588
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter what I think they'd do on a

589
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 1: neutral field. That doesn't once they've earned it. Once the

590
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 1: games have been played, the games have been played. And

591
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 1: the other thing that I need to make sure gets

592
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 1: repeated is back in twenty fourteen, if you just allowed

593
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 1: Ohio State on paper to be judged, everybody on paper

594
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 1: would have looked and said, yeah, this is a good team.

595
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 1: But they're with their third string quarterback now, so obviously

596
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:20,479
Speaker 1: there's a reason that guy was third string. We're not

597
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: going to put him in the playoff because they're not

598
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 1: the quality of team they've been. Well, they got put

599
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 1: in the playoff based on their resume and what they

600
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 1: had earned merit wise on the field, and then they

601
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 1: won a national title, and so ever since then I

602
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 1: don't really care what a committee thinks they have the

603
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 1: value on a play around. I don't care if the

604
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 1: committee thinks they know how valuable Jordan Travis was. I

605
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 1: don't even care how valuable I think he was. So

606
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 1: I certainly don't care what the committee thinks. If they've

607
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 1: earned it, they're in, because the bottom line is, you

608
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 1: don't know. That's not how competition works. Again, this is paper.

609
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 1: They play the games on the field. Now, the other

610
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 1: point that I think is interesting and totally flawed is

611
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 1: the group that comes at me and says, well, we

612
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 1: should get the four best teams in the playoff. There's

613
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 1: a sizeable portion of the college football public that thinks

614
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 1: we should just try and get the four best teams in.

615
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 1: And to that, I ask you, what are you describing

616
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 1: at that point? You're not describing sports, You're not describing competition.

617
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 1: You're describing odds making, you're describing power ratings. Do you

618
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 1: understand right now, the University of Georgia could have lost

619
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,480
Speaker 1: to Tennessee last week, and could go lose to Bama

620
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 1: and Las Vegas still would not have four teams ahead

621
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 1: of Georgia. So by that logic, you're telling me Georgia

622
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 1: should be in the playoff because out in the desert

623
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 1: they say that they're still one of the four best teams.

624
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 1: Is that what we're saying. If you answer yes because

625
00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:51,959
Speaker 1: you think it would create the most entertaining product, even

626
00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 1: though you're not a TV executive, then you're not describing sports.

627
00:31:56,040 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 1: Sports competition is about two entities going at it and

628
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 1: then one of them wins, one of them loses, and

629
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,040
Speaker 1: there are consequences and there are rewards. But if you

630
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 1: clearly define criteria, you go by the criteria, even though

631
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 1: it may be written in pencil. Sometimes you can't just

632
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 1: sit there and say, yes, I know we saw the

633
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 1: results on the field. However, on this piece of paper,

634
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 1: here's what I think. So this is what we should

635
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 1: go off of. And lastly, before I move on, I

636
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 1: had a buddy of mine text me and say, Bro,

637
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 1: do you really think that Florida State should go to

638
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 1: the playoff even though they'd get smoked by Georgia. My

639
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,959
Speaker 1: answer is, if they're undefeated, yeah, and I think they

640
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 1: would get smoked by Georgia. I think FSU as currently

641
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 1: constructed would get beaten, probably by double digits, by over

642
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 1: half a dozen teams in that playoff an any given matchup,

643
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 1: I don't care. This is not burger king. You don't

644
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 1: pull up in the drive through and get to hand

645
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 1: pick the matchups you want that best serve your interest.

646
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 1: That's not sport. It's not competition. That's not how it works.

647
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 1: It's not on demand. The playoff, that's not on demand.

648
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 1: In other words, you don't just get to say, well, yeah,

649
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 1: Florida State may be up there, but I don't like

650
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 1: TCU last year. I think they're gonna get blown out,

651
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 1: So I don't think they should be in. Yeah they should.

652
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 1: If they're not in, you're not playing a sport. You're

653
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 1: just you're just constructing some like make a playoff. That's

654
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 1: not the way that works. Next up is the loser

655
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:24,000
Speaker 1: of Ohio State and Michigan. Definitely out. I think they are.

656
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 1: I certainly think if Michigan loses there out. They have

657
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 1: no leg to stand on. If they lose Saturday, playing

658
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 1: the play in the schedule they've played, there is no

659
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 1: shot Michigan should be in that thing if they lose.

660
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 1: I think they know that too. If Ohio State lose,

661
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 1: as they're probably out. But Ohio State, if some other

662
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 1: chaos happened, would at least be able to say, Hey,

663
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 1: we played Notre Dame on the road in out of

664
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 1: conference play and so our only loss was on the

665
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 1: road to Michigan. If some other stuff breaks, there's a

666
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 1: back door for Ohio State. Maybe there is not one,

667
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 1: nor should there be from Michigan. How about Georgia. Is

668
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 1: Georgia out if they go all the way through the

669
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 1: season undefeated and then they lose close to Alabama? And

670
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 1: let's say let's say Land Mines go off elsewhere, and

671
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 1: that brings me to my last point. Let's say Texas

672
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,399
Speaker 1: loses in the Big twelve championship game. Their two loss team,

673
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 1: they're not going to be in. Let's say you have

674
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:25,800
Speaker 1: a head to head comparison. Something crazy happens, like FSU

675
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 1: loses to Florida but then goes and wins the ACC

676
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,480
Speaker 1: title game. Who do you put in? Do you put

677
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:37,120
Speaker 1: in one loss Jordan Travis Liss Florida State, or do

678
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 1: you put in one loss Georgia with no conference title?

679
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 1: I think they put Georgia in. I think they would

680
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 1: so if that were what it came down to. What

681
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:51,279
Speaker 1: about Georgia versus an Oregon? But with two losses. Let's

682
00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:55,400
Speaker 1: say Oregon loses in a rivalry game this Friday, but

683
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 1: Arizona also loses, So Oregon goes to the PAC twelfth

684
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:00,879
Speaker 1: title game, they beat Washington, and you've got a two

685
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:03,399
Speaker 1: loss Oregon. I think Georgia would be in over them.

686
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 1: So there's a way there's a backdoor. You could insert

687
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 1: Ohio State here. Ohio State may be in over some

688
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:10,360
Speaker 1: of them too. The land mine games to keep an

689
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 1: eye on, and the ones the Committee may very well

690
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 1: have rooting interest in, even though they never admit it.

691
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 1: I think the Committee would love to see Florida win

692
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:21,719
Speaker 1: this Saturday against Florida State. I think the Committee would

693
00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:24,319
Speaker 1: love to see Louisville beat FSU. And I say that

694
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 1: not because they're anti Seminole. I say that because it

695
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 1: would alleviate them having to make an impossible decision if

696
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,279
Speaker 1: the time came. I don't think the Committee would mind

697
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 1: at all if Oregon State beat Oregon. The Committee may

698
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:38,120
Speaker 1: not want to see Texas Tech beat Texas called I

699
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:40,759
Speaker 1: think that committee wants Texas in the playoff. But those

700
00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 1: are the landmine games that could at least alleviate the

701
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 1: stress of making. Like I said, a pretty impossible decision. Anyway,

702
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 1: Let's get back to breaking down games. Please. Speaking of

703
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:56,200
Speaker 1: the seminoles, Florida State at Florida Saturday night seven o'clock.

704
00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 1: Swamp has sold out games on ESPN, and it's a

705
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:03,240
Speaker 1: battle of backup quarterbacks. Tate Roademaker, the red shirt junior

706
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 1: for Florida State. You got Max Brown, He's a true

707
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:09,840
Speaker 1: freshman for Florida. Who is going to help their quarterback

708
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 1: the most. The fan duel line on this game right

709
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 1: now is Florida State minus six and a half. The

710
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:18,799
Speaker 1: first quarter in this game, to me, is as imperative

711
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 1: and as important as in any big game this weekend,

712
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:25,919
Speaker 1: and the reason is because both offenses, prior to losing

713
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:29,400
Speaker 1: their quarterbacks were top thirty passing offenses. So then you

714
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 1: take out the quarterback that was the trigger puller in

715
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 1: that entire equation, which one potentially just goes into a shell,

716
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 1: which one proves to you, No, we got another guy

717
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:42,720
Speaker 1: who can do it too. The run games were sixty

718
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 1: third and seventy eighth nationally, so it wasn't like these

719
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 1: teams were taking over games on the ground. They were

720
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:50,839
Speaker 1: throwing the ball to win games. Each defense is in

721
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 1: the one hundreds in explosive runs allowed, So you would

722
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 1: think this sets up for a run game to take over,

723
00:36:57,640 --> 00:36:59,799
Speaker 1: but neither of them has really shown the ability to

724
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 1: do that a lot. So it's largely been quarterbacks that

725
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:05,640
Speaker 1: have done it for these teams. And maybe a quarterback

726
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 1: steps up this Saturday. If one of them falls behind, though,

727
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 1: that's when you get yourself in a lot of trouble.

728
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 1: So I think the first quarter is imperative here. There's

729
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:17,359
Speaker 1: a world where Florida State, with the size advantage they

730
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:20,959
Speaker 1: have at receiver, just sees those guys go and tear

731
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 1: away half a dozen fifty to fifty balls and they

732
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 1: just physically take the game over. There's a world where

733
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 1: that happens. There's also a world for either of these teams. Really,

734
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 1: there's a world where that galvanization happens in the locker

735
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 1: room where you lost your quarterback and your team knows

736
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 1: it all week and so you got an entire week's preparation,

737
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 1: but also in entire weeks worth of baking into your mind,

738
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:46,919
Speaker 1: are guys down, we got to win it. We gotta

739
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 1: go win it. Linebacker room, a safety room, tight end room,

740
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,759
Speaker 1: we got to go win it. Does someone bottle that up?

741
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 1: Do both teams bottle that up? Does neither team bottle

742
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,919
Speaker 1: that up? Florida is much different at home. You've seen

743
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,960
Speaker 1: struggle on the road, much different at home. They allow

744
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:06,640
Speaker 1: two times as many points in road games as they

745
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 1: do at home. Totally different. Like they beat Tennessee at

746
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:11,359
Speaker 1: home earlier this year and then looked like a shell

747
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 1: of themselves couple weeks later at Kentucky. FSU has a

748
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 1: huge turnover margin edge here. Florida has a huge penalties

749
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 1: per game edge. It's a bowl game on the line

750
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:24,960
Speaker 1: for Florida. It's college football playoff livelihood on the line

751
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 1: for Florida State. Let's take a look column at what

752
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 1: the model thinks. Florida State, in the eyes of FanDuel,

753
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 1: is a six and a half point favorite. We don't

754
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:37,320
Speaker 1: agree whatsoever. We've got FSU according to our model minus

755
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:40,799
Speaker 1: one and a half. I went and checked because I

756
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,359
Speaker 1: thought maybe there was an error in the model and

757
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 1: it had not baked in the Graham Mertz injury. All

758
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 1: of it's baked them. We think this is almost a

759
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:55,359
Speaker 1: Pickham game. And I think that Florida is good enough

760
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:58,040
Speaker 1: at home. And I think the swamp with a Bowl

761
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:01,279
Speaker 1: trip on the line will be lit up enough at

762
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 1: home to where I will roll the dice. I will

763
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 1: pick Florida to win the game. So obviously I think

764
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:10,880
Speaker 1: they'll cover. I think that may be a mild upset

765
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:16,440
Speaker 1: that's pulled Saturday. Billy Napier needs that one really bad, man.

766
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 1: You know what did to feel a lot like it

767
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:20,839
Speaker 1: would feel a lot like Beamer and his team beating

768
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 1: Clemson last year, and it sort of washed away some

769
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:26,320
Speaker 1: of the stench of an Otherwise that was a fairly

770
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 1: good year for South Carolina, but all you remembered was

771
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 1: the Clemson win. Well, if Billy Napier can get this win,

772
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:33,279
Speaker 1: there's still a lot to work on. But if they

773
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 1: get to six wins at the expense of Florida State

774
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:40,840
Speaker 1: and that's a that's that rights a lot of wrongs

775
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:43,319
Speaker 1: for Billy Napier. I think there's a shot they get

776
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 1: it done. So I'm gonna roll the dice. I'm gonna

777
00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:50,760
Speaker 1: take Florida to win it out right, JP phole time. Yeah, Hey, babe,

778
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:52,959
Speaker 1: come in here, he's gonna do the JP pole. Yep,

779
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:55,839
Speaker 1: it's that time. Let me let me take us up.

780
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 1: I should probably pop a couple of pills here see

781
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:01,320
Speaker 1: where No, they swept the floors earlier, so there's nothing.

782
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:10,520
Speaker 1: It's week thirteen, and I'm having the same conversations every week.

783
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 1: So it's been brought to my attention that a lot

784
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 1: of you are tired of hearing me explain this every week. Others,

785
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:19,080
Speaker 1: the more sadistically minded amongst us, love it every week.

786
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:23,200
Speaker 1: So here's what I'll do. I will just like I've

787
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:26,320
Speaker 1: never met you before. I'll say, Colin, here's your endpoint,

788
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:28,839
Speaker 1: and I will say time to do the jpe pole.

789
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 1: This has nothing in common with the AP, It has

790
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:33,400
Speaker 1: nothing in common with the Playoff Committee. This is not

791
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:35,239
Speaker 1: how I would fill out a playoff ballot if I

792
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 1: were a committee member. These are power ratings, and these

793
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 1: are how I would stack these teams up according to

794
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 1: our model on a neutral field tomorrow. It's been proven right,

795
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:47,040
Speaker 1: literally over and over and over again this year, and

796
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:49,359
Speaker 1: the fan bases who thought they were being screwed and

797
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 1: called me all kinds of names instead of admitting that

798
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:54,759
Speaker 1: I was right, have just disappeared. There are a couple

799
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 1: of exceptions. We have been wrong on Washington the whole year.

800
00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:01,359
Speaker 1: There is an adjustment in tonight's JP, So let's break

801
00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:05,320
Speaker 1: it down. I am so happy, in fact, it thrills

802
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:10,320
Speaker 1: me to announce that Troy University has made an appearance

803
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:14,160
Speaker 1: in the Japeople. John Sumrall and his staff are doing

804
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 1: insane work down at Troy. They are number twenty five

805
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:21,600
Speaker 1: this week, and they are challenging for a conference championship.

806
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:23,839
Speaker 1: His name is in the running for some major head

807
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 1: coaching jobs. Just not even a golf clap, just an

808
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:31,080
Speaker 1: outright clap for John Somerrall and Troy. They're number twenty five.

809
00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 1: Florida is at twenty four. Tennessee did not drop out.

810
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 1: Tennessee's at twenty three. Utah is at twenty two. I

811
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:40,560
Speaker 1: have concerns about Utah, as I do with a few

812
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 1: of these teams, because this time of year, if you

813
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:46,279
Speaker 1: ran out of gas, there's no fill in station in

814
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 1: week between weeks twelve and thirteen, if you ran out

815
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 1: of gas, you're just out. But there's no real way

816
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:55,320
Speaker 1: to quantify that. So Utah could put forth an effort

817
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:59,360
Speaker 1: this Saturday that is equal to what we would expect

818
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:01,719
Speaker 1: from the forty five best team in the country, but

819
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 1: we have to bake their entire year's profile in so

820
00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 1: right now, they're at twenty two. UCLA's at twenty one,

821
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:11,319
Speaker 1: just beat USC last week. I got a stat for

822
00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 1: you here, by the way, So Colin, you can go

823
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 1: ahead to twenty through fifteen, but listen to this. So

824
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 1: if you want to know about gaps, So the model

825
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:24,319
Speaker 1: right now has ten points that separate number one through

826
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:27,719
Speaker 1: number six. The number one team would be a ten

827
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 1: point favorite, in other words, versus the number sixteam. But

828
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 1: listen to how tightly packed the rest of the field is.

829
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 1: The gap between one and six is ten points. The

830
00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:41,239
Speaker 1: gap between ten and thirty two is ten points. So

831
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 1: it's a moot point to argue this stuff. Like if

832
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 1: you think oh, A and M shouldn't be eighteen, they

833
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:49,640
Speaker 1: should be twenty third, there's like three quarters of a

834
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 1: point separation. There's no difference, it's just it's splitting hairs.

835
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 1: Having said that, we got ole Miss at twenty, Louisville

836
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 1: at nineteen A and M. We've had pegged right here

837
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 1: in the same spot for weeks now Clemson as well.

838
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 1: The model did not punt on Clemson when they started

839
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 1: losing because they were properly rated. And now they've won

840
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:12,160
Speaker 1: three straight and they're right there at seventeen, that's exactly

841
00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:15,439
Speaker 1: where Clemson should be. Oregon States at sixteen didn't drop

842
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 1: them a whole lot because they played the exact game

843
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:21,880
Speaker 1: that we thought they should play absent turnover margin last week,

844
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:24,719
Speaker 1: and turnovers are randomized, and we do not bake them

845
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:28,240
Speaker 1: into the model. The model Actually, this will really really

846
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:33,239
Speaker 1: be loved up in Seattle for the model's predictive purposes.

847
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:37,080
Speaker 1: Do you realize it saw Oregon State beat Washington by

848
00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 1: about four or five points last week because it always

849
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 1: eliminates turnovers and it otherwise plays the game out the

850
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 1: way the game would play out. And the reason it

851
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:47,319
Speaker 1: does that is because we have learned over the course

852
00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 1: of football history, if turnovers are randomized and you want

853
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:56,360
Speaker 1: a future looking model and a predictive model, it is

854
00:43:56,520 --> 00:44:01,240
Speaker 1: wiser to just eliminate all the turnovers and then crunch

855
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:04,840
Speaker 1: the numbers. How would the game have played out without them? Mathematically,

856
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:07,399
Speaker 1: it's an Oregon State win. That's why they didn't really

857
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 1: drop at all. I think a couple of teams jumped

858
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:11,600
Speaker 1: ahead of them, and that was the only reason they

859
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:14,440
Speaker 1: dropped down a spot. Because we didn't subtract anything off

860
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:18,399
Speaker 1: of their power rating. I'm telling you right now, someone

861
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:21,319
Speaker 1: is punching air who doesn't get what I just said, Like,

862
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:23,920
Speaker 1: what do you mean you eliminated turnovers? That's not how

863
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:26,839
Speaker 1: football works, true, that is how power ratings work. Though.

864
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:31,279
Speaker 1: Let's go fifteen through eleven. Number fifteen, and I need

865
00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:34,319
Speaker 1: to talk to you about this team is Arizona, Arizona.

866
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:37,719
Speaker 1: It stuns me that they're here every week. Stuns me

867
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:40,880
Speaker 1: that they're here. Unbelievable job by Jetfish. Florida State's at fourteen.

868
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 1: So let's pause for a second. So you see now

869
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:47,640
Speaker 1: what I was talking about earlier without Jordan Travis. I mean,

870
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:50,160
Speaker 1: that's a solid six to seven point deduction on your

871
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:52,520
Speaker 1: power rating when you lose your quarterback who is of

872
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 1: that caliber. So we've got Florida State at fourteen without

873
00:44:56,560 --> 00:45:01,400
Speaker 1: Jordan Travis. I cannot overemphasize enough that team being at

874
00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:04,919
Speaker 1: fourteen has no bearing on whether I think they should

875
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:07,560
Speaker 1: or shouldn't be in the playoff if they go undefeate it.

876
00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:10,280
Speaker 1: This thing right here is totally different. It's not merit based.

877
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:13,600
Speaker 1: This is just power rating. Missouri's at thirteen, really solid

878
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 1: year being put up by Eli Drinkwitz. Penn State's at twelve,

879
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 1: Oklahoma's at eleven, pretty much where they were last week,

880
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:24,399
Speaker 1: top ten time. So Kansas State's still right there. Notre

881
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:26,799
Speaker 1: Dame as well. Those are very solid teams. But look

882
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:29,960
Speaker 1: at Washington. This could be the highest we've had Washington.

883
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:32,600
Speaker 1: There may have been one other week, but I think

884
00:45:32,600 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 1: this is close to the highest we've had Washington. They're

885
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:37,640
Speaker 1: at number eight, and I'll tell you what I did.

886
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:42,000
Speaker 1: I stepped in and I realized, I think we've had

887
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:44,400
Speaker 1: them a point or two off all year. Like I

888
00:45:44,440 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 1: think we've We've been ahead of the curve for a

889
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:49,640
Speaker 1: ton of these teams, but Washington, we've been behind the

890
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:53,600
Speaker 1: curve on and so the model did not adjust them

891
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 1: at all last week. I told you, as far as

892
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:59,799
Speaker 1: the model's purposes are concerned, Oregon State beat Washington last week.

893
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:03,440
Speaker 1: For future leaning purposes, well, I stepped in and said,

894
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:06,880
Speaker 1: be that as it may, we continue to be a

895
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:10,480
Speaker 1: little bit off on them. So we manually adjusted Washington

896
00:46:10,560 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 1: up just a little bit. I think we added three

897
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:13,359
Speaker 1: quarters of per point, but that's good enough to put

898
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:16,719
Speaker 1: him at number eight. LSU is number seven. Think about that.

899
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:21,319
Speaker 1: Think about LSU with how poor their defense has been

900
00:46:21,360 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 1: this year. They are so good offensively, they're at number seven,

901
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:28,640
Speaker 1: like we would favor LSU against Washington if they played tomorrow.

902
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:31,080
Speaker 1: Not by much, but we would favor them. We were

903
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:35,400
Speaker 1: favor them against Kansas State. That's amazing because it shows

904
00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:39,239
Speaker 1: in a sense how much they've wasted Jayden Daniels this

905
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 1: year with a poor defense. And it's a shame because

906
00:46:42,200 --> 00:46:44,560
Speaker 1: you don't get seasons like that very often. Texas is

907
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:48,919
Speaker 1: number six, virtually unchanged, and let's go top five here.

908
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:53,799
Speaker 1: Ohio State's at five. That's where they were last week, Michigan.

909
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:58,240
Speaker 1: The model dropped them two spots and elevated Oregon above Michigan,

910
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:02,080
Speaker 1: which I'm sure will catch a lot. But do you

911
00:47:02,239 --> 00:47:05,320
Speaker 1: notice who the one two are now? We got Georgia

912
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:08,680
Speaker 1: Bama one to two. Like so many years past, we

913
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 1: think the two best teams in the country at this

914
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:14,319
Speaker 1: present moment are in the SEC. We have got a

915
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:17,400
Speaker 1: two and a half point gap between Georgia and Alabama.

916
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:20,480
Speaker 1: We have got a six point gap between Georgia and

917
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:24,399
Speaker 1: Ohio State. Obviously number one and number two are gonna play.

918
00:47:24,719 --> 00:47:27,920
Speaker 1: Obviously number four and number five are gonna play. My

919
00:47:28,320 --> 00:47:32,160
Speaker 1: point is you may be watching the playoff unfold over

920
00:47:32,200 --> 00:47:34,880
Speaker 1: the next two weeks. Now Oregon sits there and says,

921
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:38,160
Speaker 1: excuse me, And that is a valid rebuttal, because maybe

922
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 1: we're not, but you were, you were. You're not gonna

923
00:47:42,120 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 1: see all those teams in the top four, and the

924
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:45,839
Speaker 1: reason may just be because they have to play each other,

925
00:47:46,000 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 1: is my point. Let's get back on the well. First off,

926
00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:50,440
Speaker 1: let me show you the top ten there, So there

927
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:52,880
Speaker 1: you see it. If you want your screen grab to

928
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 1: send to your cousin, who you can just aggravate because

929
00:47:56,200 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 1: you don't explain the context to him. Yeah, there it

930
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 1: is all of a sudden, she was ahead of Washington,

931
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:04,399
Speaker 1: three losses ahead of an undefeated. What's wrong with this guy?

932
00:48:04,640 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 1: Someone accused me of doing drugs earlier today, and that's

933
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:12,080
Speaker 1: where I draw the line. So there you go. There's

934
00:48:12,080 --> 00:48:15,080
Speaker 1: your top ten. We'll tweet it out later and then

935
00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:18,760
Speaker 1: we'll just brace ourselves. Let's get back on the field.

936
00:48:19,360 --> 00:48:22,680
Speaker 1: Oregon State at Oregon a Friday, eight thirty Eastern time

937
00:48:22,760 --> 00:48:28,080
Speaker 1: kickoff on Fox. There's the November theory is in play here,

938
00:48:28,120 --> 00:48:31,399
Speaker 1: I think. So remember remember a couple of weeks ago,

939
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 1: Utah went and played Washington back and forth. Affair and

940
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:39,480
Speaker 1: Utah loses a close game thirty five to twenty eight.

941
00:48:40,080 --> 00:48:43,359
Speaker 1: Remember what happened last week, Utah just goes and gets

942
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 1: blown out by Arizona. That is a classic example of

943
00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:50,200
Speaker 1: having ten weeks worth of gas in a twelve week tank.

944
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:54,920
Speaker 1: And I think it may be in the cards in

945
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:59,120
Speaker 1: this game, cause Oregon State just played Washington really close

946
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 1: but lost. So you fully expend yourself. Now you got

947
00:49:04,120 --> 00:49:05,799
Speaker 1: to get yourself right back up. You got to go

948
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:09,040
Speaker 1: on the road on short rest, and you got to

949
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:11,400
Speaker 1: play one of the best teams in the country. I

950
00:49:11,480 --> 00:49:14,240
Speaker 1: don't feel good if I'm over Oregon State right now.

951
00:49:14,400 --> 00:49:17,480
Speaker 1: I don't feel good. Oregon State's defense does not profile

952
00:49:17,600 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 1: well in this game at all. In fact, I don't

953
00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:21,799
Speaker 1: like a lot of the matchups for him. Oregon's got

954
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:23,919
Speaker 1: the number two pass offense in the country. Oregon State

955
00:49:24,040 --> 00:49:26,840
Speaker 1: is in the sixties against the pass, and I watched

956
00:49:26,880 --> 00:49:30,960
Speaker 1: Travis Hunter have success individually against the secondary. I just

957
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:33,440
Speaker 1: watched a Dunze do it last week in the freezing

958
00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:35,960
Speaker 1: cold rain. I think Troy Franklin is gonna have a

959
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:39,200
Speaker 1: lot of success Saturday. The bad news part two in

960
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:43,080
Speaker 1: this game for the Beavers is your best bet is

961
00:49:43,120 --> 00:49:45,279
Speaker 1: running the ball and Oregon looks and says, Okay, go

962
00:49:45,360 --> 00:49:49,759
Speaker 1: for it. They're the twenty third best rushing offense in

963
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:52,720
Speaker 1: the country, or or the Oregon State Beavers. But Oregon's

964
00:49:52,760 --> 00:49:56,719
Speaker 1: defense borders on top ten nationally. So their run defense

965
00:49:57,280 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 1: matches up very well with your strength and you probably

966
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:02,839
Speaker 1: can't throw the ball enough to expose them. So that's

967
00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 1: bad news Part two. Bad news Part three is Oregon

968
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:08,840
Speaker 1: State has really bad home road splits and Oregon is

969
00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:12,000
Speaker 1: fully motivated. There's zero percent chance they overlook this game.

970
00:50:12,640 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 1: They got brand new T shirts up there, feebu and

971
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:19,360
Speaker 1: put that acronym together. I am negotiating a trade with

972
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:22,359
Speaker 1: the organ Athletic Department as we speak. Our new Paate

973
00:50:22,400 --> 00:50:26,200
Speaker 1: State America's team T shirt goes to them as soon

974
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 1: as we get landing size, and then they send us

975
00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 1: a Phoebu shirt. We'll see. Negotiations are ongoing. So let's

976
00:50:32,560 --> 00:50:34,399
Speaker 1: take a look at what the model things. FanDuel has

977
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:37,359
Speaker 1: this as Oregon minus thirteen and a half. It's very

978
00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 1: similar to the Iron Bowl. We don't think the number

979
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:42,680
Speaker 1: is big enough. We have taken the rivalry aspect into account.

980
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 1: We think Oregon minus sixteen and Frankly, I don't think

981
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:48,879
Speaker 1: it's going to be that close. So we're gonna lay

982
00:50:48,880 --> 00:50:51,480
Speaker 1: the points. We're going Oregon to win, We're going Oregon

983
00:50:51,520 --> 00:50:54,000
Speaker 1: to cover, and that will send them to the pactual

984
00:50:54,080 --> 00:50:58,680
Speaker 1: championship game with everything to play for. They're watching us

985
00:50:58,680 --> 00:51:02,239
Speaker 1: in Gainesville, Florida, shown and Wyoming Evanston, Illinois, and we

986
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:05,080
Speaker 1: appreciate you wherever. You're watching a little bit earlier start tonight.

987
00:51:05,480 --> 00:51:07,759
Speaker 1: So I'm sure our usual live crowd's going to come

988
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:11,280
Speaker 1: in and say, what is this a fully completed show? Interesting?

989
00:51:13,080 --> 00:51:16,320
Speaker 1: That's why we keep the replays up. But in the meantime,

990
00:51:17,320 --> 00:51:20,759
Speaker 1: with a huge population watching live, just in me a

991
00:51:20,800 --> 00:51:23,359
Speaker 1: favor and liked the video. And then this time of year,

992
00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 1: since it is the season of thanks and giving, we

993
00:51:26,280 --> 00:51:29,560
Speaker 1: would be thankful if you would give us a subscription,

994
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:32,520
Speaker 1: which doesn't cost you anything. You just click subscribe and

995
00:51:32,560 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 1: then forget about it and go on about your day.

996
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:37,960
Speaker 1: A podcast and YouTube. By the way, Clemson at South

997
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:43,600
Speaker 1: Carolina SEC Network seven point thirty. Oh Man Williams Brice

998
00:51:43,640 --> 00:51:46,360
Speaker 1: gets a chance to flex here. South Carolina won this

999
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:49,320
Speaker 1: game last year thirty one to thirty. Clemson was a

1000
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 1: fourteen point favorite. In that game. It it surprised me

1001
00:51:52,600 --> 00:51:55,960
Speaker 1: a pretty great deal. That win and the Tennessee win

1002
00:51:56,680 --> 00:52:00,880
Speaker 1: made Shane Beemers season. So this year they've got a

1003
00:52:00,960 --> 00:52:02,920
Speaker 1: chance again. They got to win this game to be

1004
00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:06,400
Speaker 1: Bowl eligible. Do the game Cocks. Clemson's won three straight.

1005
00:52:06,760 --> 00:52:08,399
Speaker 1: We kept him in the top twenty in the JP

1006
00:52:08,560 --> 00:52:12,000
Speaker 1: pole when it wasn't popular, and they have rewarded us

1007
00:52:12,200 --> 00:52:16,040
Speaker 1: by winning against Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. And don't

1008
00:52:16,080 --> 00:52:18,240
Speaker 1: laugh at that. Georgia Tech has been better than several

1009
00:52:18,239 --> 00:52:19,759
Speaker 1: of those teams over there who should have done more

1010
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:22,880
Speaker 1: this year. And they've won against North Carolina. So they

1011
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:25,440
Speaker 1: got a good little string of wins going here. And

1012
00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:27,920
Speaker 1: they've established the run in each one of those games,

1013
00:52:28,440 --> 00:52:30,520
Speaker 1: which I expect them to do in this game. They

1014
00:52:30,560 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 1: ran it for one hundred and seventy six on Notre Dame,

1015
00:52:33,040 --> 00:52:36,759
Speaker 1: two sixty on Georgia Tech, two forty seven on North Carolina.

1016
00:52:36,920 --> 00:52:39,920
Speaker 1: South Carolina's got the fifty second run defense in the country.

1017
00:52:40,800 --> 00:52:43,800
Speaker 1: And you know what, if you look at Ka Klubnik

1018
00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:46,319
Speaker 1: and you say, let's get it done through the air

1019
00:52:46,360 --> 00:52:48,920
Speaker 1: here as well. South Carolina's one hundred and eighteenth against

1020
00:52:48,920 --> 00:52:51,400
Speaker 1: the pass. So there are plays to be made. However,

1021
00:52:51,680 --> 00:52:54,160
Speaker 1: that sounds a little one sided. I do need to

1022
00:52:54,200 --> 00:52:57,560
Speaker 1: remind you we get to enjoy home Rattler at least

1023
00:52:57,600 --> 00:53:01,759
Speaker 1: one more game here, Spencer Ratler on the rude, not

1024
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:05,359
Speaker 1: so good Spencer Ratler. At home, his completion percentage goes

1025
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:08,920
Speaker 1: up thirteen percent. Pass yards per game go up ninety

1026
00:53:09,000 --> 00:53:13,640
Speaker 1: six yards, yards per attempt goes up four yards. Touchdown

1027
00:53:13,680 --> 00:53:17,520
Speaker 1: to interception rate at home nineteen to three. Touchdown to

1028
00:53:17,600 --> 00:53:21,240
Speaker 1: interception rate on the road two to four. Totally different player,

1029
00:53:21,800 --> 00:53:24,040
Speaker 1: and we get him at home here. So South Carolina

1030
00:53:24,200 --> 00:53:28,839
Speaker 1: number fifteen passing offense in the country. Problem being, you're

1031
00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:31,720
Speaker 1: gonna have, Yeah, you're gonna have. This is what happens

1032
00:53:31,719 --> 00:53:33,719
Speaker 1: when they send me to New York to work. You're

1033
00:53:33,719 --> 00:53:37,719
Speaker 1: gonna have a tough time possibly against Clemson, number eight

1034
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:41,680
Speaker 1: defense against the pass in the country. Here's the other

1035
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:44,320
Speaker 1: problem as I see it. Clemson also gets after the quarterback.

1036
00:53:44,360 --> 00:53:46,440
Speaker 1: They got the number forty sack unit in the country.

1037
00:53:46,440 --> 00:53:48,319
Speaker 1: They pressure the quarterback at a better rate than that,

1038
00:53:48,600 --> 00:53:52,479
Speaker 1: and South Carolina is in the one twenties in sack

1039
00:53:52,600 --> 00:53:55,680
Speaker 1: rate allowed this year. They're sitting at five wins. They

1040
00:53:55,760 --> 00:53:58,879
Speaker 1: need one more for Bowl contention. Shane Beemer always has

1041
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:01,319
Speaker 1: the ability to to pull one out of a hat

1042
00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 1: you didn't even know he had. So Colin, let's go

1043
00:54:05,160 --> 00:54:07,759
Speaker 1: to the model, the FanDuel number. Right now, Clemson is

1044
00:54:07,760 --> 00:54:13,399
Speaker 1: favored by seven in Columbia. The model has Clemson minus nine,

1045
00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:16,680
Speaker 1: so we think the Tiger Well, the model thinks the

1046
00:54:16,719 --> 00:54:19,880
Speaker 1: Tigers win it and cover. I'm splitting the difference. I

1047
00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:21,759
Speaker 1: think it will be competitive, so I'm going to take

1048
00:54:21,760 --> 00:54:24,520
Speaker 1: Clemson to win, but I think South Carolina makes it

1049
00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:27,640
Speaker 1: very close with an outside shot to pull another upset.

1050
00:54:27,960 --> 00:54:31,360
Speaker 1: I'm taking Clemson to win. I'm taking South Carolina plus

1051
00:54:31,400 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 1: anything touchdown or over. We move on. We got more

1052
00:54:35,200 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 1: games to break down and we've also got three added

1053
00:54:37,560 --> 00:54:40,600
Speaker 1: best bets before the end of the show. You know

1054
00:54:40,640 --> 00:54:42,960
Speaker 1: which game has Game of the Year potential to me?

1055
00:54:43,280 --> 00:54:46,120
Speaker 1: Texas A and M versus LSU. I know this isn't

1056
00:54:46,160 --> 00:54:48,560
Speaker 1: on everyone's radar, but friends, this one has Game of

1057
00:54:48,640 --> 00:54:53,040
Speaker 1: the Week potential. The nature of having an interim head

1058
00:54:53,040 --> 00:54:56,600
Speaker 1: coach like Elijah Robinson is at Texas A and M

1059
00:54:57,160 --> 00:55:00,200
Speaker 1: is you don't know what to expect normally. I know

1060
00:55:00,239 --> 00:55:05,480
Speaker 1: this sounds weird, but normally You're more comfortable when everything

1061
00:55:05,640 --> 00:55:07,920
Speaker 1: is as it should be over on the other side,

1062
00:55:07,920 --> 00:55:10,760
Speaker 1: because at least they play the way they're supposed to play.

1063
00:55:11,239 --> 00:55:13,760
Speaker 1: They show you the team that you've seen on film

1064
00:55:13,880 --> 00:55:17,400
Speaker 1: all year, and by week thirteen they shouldn't be surprising

1065
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:20,160
Speaker 1: you very much. Well, then all of a sudden, the

1066
00:55:20,239 --> 00:55:23,480
Speaker 1: head guy gets fired and an interim gets bumped up,

1067
00:55:23,760 --> 00:55:25,480
Speaker 1: and they just throw a bunch of stuff against the wall,

1068
00:55:25,520 --> 00:55:28,360
Speaker 1: and you have no clue what to prepare for. So

1069
00:55:28,440 --> 00:55:30,880
Speaker 1: let's be real. Have you watched A and M lately?

1070
00:55:31,360 --> 00:55:33,640
Speaker 1: Have a lot of you watched Texas A and M lately?

1071
00:55:34,440 --> 00:55:36,920
Speaker 1: Do you realize it may be the best defense LSU's

1072
00:55:36,960 --> 00:55:40,719
Speaker 1: faced all year? They faced Alabama, true enough, but A

1073
00:55:40,840 --> 00:55:43,359
Speaker 1: and M's eighth in total defense this year. They're top

1074
00:55:43,400 --> 00:55:46,080
Speaker 1: twenty against the pass, They're top twenty against the run,

1075
00:55:46,120 --> 00:55:48,960
Speaker 1: so on paper, they got an even better defensive unit

1076
00:55:49,000 --> 00:55:52,399
Speaker 1: than Alabama does. LSU does get him at home here,

1077
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:56,600
Speaker 1: but nonetheless, this is not going to be the easiest

1078
00:55:56,880 --> 00:56:01,040
Speaker 1: chore to move the ball. However, miss did throw it

1079
00:56:01,200 --> 00:56:03,719
Speaker 1: some on A and M. Miami threw it on him,

1080
00:56:03,880 --> 00:56:06,880
Speaker 1: Maamma threw it on him. Jade and Daniels will throw it.

1081
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:10,120
Speaker 1: He will have success here. We do have the Death

1082
00:56:10,200 --> 00:56:12,560
Speaker 1: Valley during the day problem on our hands. I know

1083
00:56:12,640 --> 00:56:15,239
Speaker 1: you're listening to me talk about South Carolina getting a

1084
00:56:15,320 --> 00:56:17,879
Speaker 1: night game at home, Florida gets a night game at home,

1085
00:56:17,920 --> 00:56:22,640
Speaker 1: and there we are eleven am kickoff. I've still got

1086
00:56:22,760 --> 00:56:25,919
Speaker 1: bacon between my back molers, and we're kicking off here.

1087
00:56:25,960 --> 00:56:28,120
Speaker 1: What is this? Well, I can't do anything about it.

1088
00:56:28,160 --> 00:56:32,680
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, but I do have some good news. You

1089
00:56:32,719 --> 00:56:34,719
Speaker 1: are favored by eleven and a half. However, on the

1090
00:56:34,760 --> 00:56:37,359
Speaker 1: other side, I have good news for Texas A and M. Now.

1091
00:56:37,800 --> 00:56:40,000
Speaker 1: I don't think ninety nine percent of the college football

1092
00:56:40,000 --> 00:56:43,799
Speaker 1: population is aware of this. But Jimbo had his team

1093
00:56:43,880 --> 00:56:47,839
Speaker 1: traveling to road games on Thursdays. No one liked it.

1094
00:56:48,040 --> 00:56:50,080
Speaker 1: No one in the organization liked it. If they said

1095
00:56:50,080 --> 00:56:51,759
Speaker 1: they did, they just said it so they wouldn't make

1096
00:56:51,800 --> 00:56:53,919
Speaker 1: the head coach mad. No one likes getting to baton

1097
00:56:53,960 --> 00:56:58,120
Speaker 1: Rouge Louisiana two days early for a game, or Tuscaloosa

1098
00:56:58,239 --> 00:57:01,520
Speaker 1: or Knoxville fill in the blank. So they had lost

1099
00:57:01,640 --> 00:57:06,120
Speaker 1: nine straight on the road. Jimbo's out. Elijah Robinson steps in.

1100
00:57:06,160 --> 00:57:09,520
Speaker 1: Now he claims that they are traveling on Friday, just

1101
00:57:09,560 --> 00:57:12,239
Speaker 1: so they can enjoy Thanksgiving. I don't really care what

1102
00:57:12,280 --> 00:57:14,839
Speaker 1: the reason is. There is a sigh of relief being

1103
00:57:14,880 --> 00:57:17,880
Speaker 1: breathed in that program collectively that they actually get to

1104
00:57:17,920 --> 00:57:21,320
Speaker 1: travel like every other team in America on Friday. I

1105
00:57:21,320 --> 00:57:24,920
Speaker 1: don't know what it's gonna mean. I'm just saying there

1106
00:57:24,920 --> 00:57:28,200
Speaker 1: are cheerful spirits around the AGGI football program because of that.

1107
00:57:28,240 --> 00:57:30,080
Speaker 1: So let's take a look at what the model thinks

1108
00:57:30,160 --> 00:57:33,120
Speaker 1: Vegas right now, FanDuel LSU minus eleven and a half.

1109
00:57:33,280 --> 00:57:35,960
Speaker 1: We disagree. The model has it a lot shorter. We

1110
00:57:36,080 --> 00:57:38,560
Speaker 1: got LSU minus eight and a half. And with LSU's

1111
00:57:38,560 --> 00:57:42,640
Speaker 1: inability to close the door defensively, I'm telling you I

1112
00:57:42,680 --> 00:57:44,760
Speaker 1: think we could see game of the week potential here,

1113
00:57:44,960 --> 00:57:47,280
Speaker 1: and that means a close game back and forth. I

1114
00:57:47,280 --> 00:57:49,600
Speaker 1: think eleven and a half is too many points, and

1115
00:57:49,640 --> 00:57:51,720
Speaker 1: so we're going to take LSU to whim. But I'm

1116
00:57:51,760 --> 00:57:55,000
Speaker 1: taking A and M to cover the eleven and a half.

1117
00:57:55,040 --> 00:57:57,600
Speaker 1: And keep in mind, if you think that team has

1118
00:57:57,640 --> 00:58:00,520
Speaker 1: nothing to play for him, Elijah Robinson and still has

1119
00:58:00,560 --> 00:58:02,800
Speaker 1: a shot at that head coaching job, like his name

1120
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:05,720
Speaker 1: is still being mentioned, and if he's out of it,

1121
00:58:05,760 --> 00:58:07,520
Speaker 1: he doesn't know he's out of it, is my point.

1122
00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:10,000
Speaker 1: So I think they'll play inspired football for him. I

1123
00:58:10,080 --> 00:58:11,960
Speaker 1: think they love him. I think that's the reason he's

1124
00:58:12,000 --> 00:58:14,400
Speaker 1: got that job right now. So I don't expect him

1125
00:58:14,440 --> 00:58:17,120
Speaker 1: to lay down at all. And I think we'll get

1126
00:58:17,120 --> 00:58:20,240
Speaker 1: a competitive game. And if you disagree with me and

1127
00:58:20,240 --> 00:58:22,600
Speaker 1: you want to lay the points with LSU, that's fine,

1128
00:58:22,880 --> 00:58:25,040
Speaker 1: go to FanDuel and have at it. I can promise

1129
00:58:25,080 --> 00:58:28,000
Speaker 1: you they will gladly take your action either way. Or

1130
00:58:28,200 --> 00:58:31,600
Speaker 1: here's what you could do. If you're confident in LSU

1131
00:58:32,160 --> 00:58:34,880
Speaker 1: and you're interested in free money, you could go bet

1132
00:58:34,920 --> 00:58:38,360
Speaker 1: five dollars on LSU on the money line, or you

1133
00:58:38,360 --> 00:58:40,600
Speaker 1: could just bet five dollars on any money line. I

1134
00:58:40,680 --> 00:58:43,520
Speaker 1: just happen to volunteer LSU. You bet five dollars on

1135
00:58:43,600 --> 00:58:46,240
Speaker 1: any money line, and if it wins, you get one

1136
00:58:46,280 --> 00:58:49,480
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty in bonus bucks. Bonus bucks are not

1137
00:58:49,640 --> 00:58:51,840
Speaker 1: like monopoly money. It's real money. I just called him

1138
00:58:51,840 --> 00:58:55,680
Speaker 1: bonus bucks. That's not FanDuel speak, that's JP speak. That

1139
00:58:55,800 --> 00:58:58,360
Speaker 1: is right now available for our viewers, and if you

1140
00:58:58,720 --> 00:59:00,480
Speaker 1: want to check it out, if you want to right

1141
00:59:00,480 --> 00:59:02,840
Speaker 1: to it, just look below the show description on the

1142
00:59:02,880 --> 00:59:05,560
Speaker 1: YouTube channel right now, and there it is. Click the

1143
00:59:05,600 --> 00:59:07,120
Speaker 1: link and you'll be good to go right down near

1144
00:59:07,120 --> 00:59:10,480
Speaker 1: the bottom Friday Night Lines whenever we do that thing.

1145
00:59:10,520 --> 00:59:13,040
Speaker 1: This week, could be Thursday, could be Friday. Brought to

1146
00:59:13,040 --> 00:59:16,880
Speaker 1: you by FanDuel Ramaannudle Express powered by FanDuel. This is

1147
00:59:16,920 --> 00:59:21,000
Speaker 1: kind of the beginning of our FanDuel partnership. I'm very excited.

1148
00:59:21,240 --> 00:59:23,600
Speaker 1: We've been having some conversations with them. There are some

1149
00:59:23,800 --> 00:59:26,720
Speaker 1: things that I've wanted to do if we ever got

1150
00:59:26,720 --> 00:59:30,400
Speaker 1: a sportsbook partner, and we've got one now, and they

1151
00:59:30,520 --> 00:59:33,520
Speaker 1: love the show. The folks we deal with at FanDuel

1152
00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:36,800
Speaker 1: are viewers of the show. I mean, I probably should

1153
00:59:36,800 --> 00:59:38,520
Speaker 1: ship them some pate state merch now that I think

1154
00:59:38,520 --> 00:59:41,920
Speaker 1: about it. But we've got some ideas that I've never

1155
00:59:41,960 --> 00:59:44,120
Speaker 1: really seen anyone else do. We've been throwing them back

1156
00:59:44,120 --> 00:59:45,640
Speaker 1: and forth. We'll see if we can do them next year.

1157
00:59:45,680 --> 00:59:49,600
Speaker 1: But in the meantime, Fandel the official betting odds provider

1158
00:59:49,840 --> 00:59:52,360
Speaker 1: of Late Kick must be twenty one or over and

1159
00:59:52,480 --> 00:59:55,840
Speaker 1: present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering

1160
00:59:55,880 --> 00:59:59,000
Speaker 1: in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC.

1161
00:59:59,400 --> 01:00:02,320
Speaker 1: First Online when real money wager only ten dollars first

1162
01:00:02,320 --> 01:00:06,000
Speaker 1: deposit required. Bonus issued as non withdrawable bonus bets that

1163
01:00:06,080 --> 01:00:09,480
Speaker 1: expire seven days after receipt. Gambling problem call one eight

1164
01:00:09,560 --> 01:00:16,040
Speaker 1: hundred gambler or visitfanduel dot com backslash rg in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan,

1165
01:00:16,240 --> 01:00:21,040
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia. Call one

1166
01:00:21,040 --> 01:00:24,439
Speaker 1: eight hundred next step or text next step to five

1167
01:00:24,560 --> 01:00:27,560
Speaker 1: three three four two in Arizona one eight eight eight

1168
01:00:27,600 --> 01:00:31,320
Speaker 1: seven eight nine seven seven seven seven, or visit CCPG

1169
01:00:31,560 --> 01:00:35,160
Speaker 1: dot org backslash chat in Connecticut one eight hundred and

1170
01:00:35,240 --> 01:00:38,600
Speaker 1: nine with it in Indiana one eight hundred five two

1171
01:00:38,600 --> 01:00:42,040
Speaker 1: two forty seven hundred, or visit KS gambling heelp dot

1172
01:00:42,080 --> 01:00:45,840
Speaker 1: com in Kansas one eight seven seven seven seven oh

1173
01:00:45,880 --> 01:00:50,480
Speaker 1: stop in Louisiana. Visit MD gamblinghelp dot org in Maryland.

1174
01:00:50,880 --> 01:00:53,680
Speaker 1: Visit one eight hundred gambler dot net. In West Virginia,

1175
01:00:54,160 --> 01:00:56,680
Speaker 1: or call one eight hundred five to two two forty

1176
01:00:56,680 --> 01:01:00,320
Speaker 1: seven hundred In Wyoming, Hope is here. Visit gams ambling

1177
01:01:00,400 --> 01:01:04,080
Speaker 1: Helpline MA dot org or call eight hundred three two

1178
01:01:04,160 --> 01:01:06,720
Speaker 1: seven fifty to fifty for twenty four seven support in

1179
01:01:06,760 --> 01:01:10,520
Speaker 1: Massachusetts or call one eight seven seven eight hope dash

1180
01:01:10,600 --> 01:01:13,880
Speaker 1: in Why, or text hope and why in New York.

1181
01:01:14,120 --> 01:01:16,160
Speaker 1: And with that in mind, I got three more games

1182
01:01:16,200 --> 01:01:18,360
Speaker 1: we're gonna add on top of the pile right now.

1183
01:01:18,400 --> 01:01:20,880
Speaker 1: So we're already on Brigham Young plus seventeen and a half.

1184
01:01:21,240 --> 01:01:23,919
Speaker 1: We're on Coastal Carolina plus nine and a half. We're

1185
01:01:23,920 --> 01:01:26,280
Speaker 1: on NC State plus two and a half. Good news,

1186
01:01:26,960 --> 01:01:29,800
Speaker 1: if you waited, you can actually find NC State plus

1187
01:01:29,840 --> 01:01:33,320
Speaker 1: three right now. Not all the time do we get

1188
01:01:33,560 --> 01:01:35,240
Speaker 1: on the right side of the number. Most of the

1189
01:01:35,280 --> 01:01:38,640
Speaker 1: time we do, so I'm adding the following games. I

1190
01:01:38,720 --> 01:01:41,600
Speaker 1: am confident enough in A and M that I'm taking

1191
01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:44,920
Speaker 1: A and M plus eleven and a half. I am

1192
01:01:45,000 --> 01:01:49,360
Speaker 1: looking at Minnesota plus two. I really love betting on

1193
01:01:49,400 --> 01:01:51,520
Speaker 1: teams with five wins going into the last week of

1194
01:01:51,560 --> 01:01:54,040
Speaker 1: the season. It's always been a little personal preference of mine.

1195
01:01:54,200 --> 01:01:56,959
Speaker 1: Plus the model thinks Minnesota wins outright, So Minnesota plus

1196
01:01:57,000 --> 01:02:02,760
Speaker 1: two and didn't break this game down. I'm taking Texas

1197
01:02:02,760 --> 01:02:05,080
Speaker 1: minus twelve and a half. The model thinks Texas is

1198
01:02:05,120 --> 01:02:08,720
Speaker 1: going to roll over Texas Tech. I think the model

1199
01:02:08,720 --> 01:02:11,640
Speaker 1: has him winning by nineteen and Vegas right now has

1200
01:02:11,680 --> 01:02:13,760
Speaker 1: a minus twelve and a half. So we'll take Texas

1201
01:02:13,760 --> 01:02:16,760
Speaker 1: minus twelve and a half, Minnesota plus two, Texas A

1202
01:02:16,840 --> 01:02:18,720
Speaker 1: and N plus eleven and a half to go along

1203
01:02:18,760 --> 01:02:21,880
Speaker 1: with NC State, Coastal Carolina and brig him Young. All right,

1204
01:02:21,920 --> 01:02:25,240
Speaker 1: so we got Thanksgiving and we're all thankful. I am

1205
01:02:25,360 --> 01:02:27,520
Speaker 1: especially thankful because you guys actually let me do this

1206
01:02:27,560 --> 01:02:30,080
Speaker 1: for a living. But also we got to keep our

1207
01:02:30,080 --> 01:02:32,160
Speaker 1: eyes on the prize because the biggest beef I have

1208
01:02:32,280 --> 01:02:36,360
Speaker 1: with our sport is that the most important weeks of

1209
01:02:36,440 --> 01:02:39,960
Speaker 1: the year overlap with holiday weeks. So you got Rivalry

1210
01:02:39,960 --> 01:02:44,040
Speaker 1: week and Thanksgiving overlapping, then you got Christmas in New

1211
01:02:44,120 --> 01:02:48,080
Speaker 1: Year's overlapping with the playoff. It's always weird. It's just

1212
01:02:48,120 --> 01:02:51,280
Speaker 1: something we have to work through. So one eye on

1213
01:02:51,320 --> 01:02:54,280
Speaker 1: the lunch and dinner table, another I on the Big

1214
01:02:54,280 --> 01:02:57,560
Speaker 1: House this Saturday or Jorden Harris Stadium or Austin Stadium.

1215
01:02:57,760 --> 01:03:00,920
Speaker 1: It's going to be an unbelievable weekend. Make sure you're

1216
01:03:00,920 --> 01:03:03,320
Speaker 1: following on Instagram at late kick Josh, not just for

1217
01:03:03,400 --> 01:03:05,760
Speaker 1: when we do Friday night lines whenever that is, but

1218
01:03:05,800 --> 01:03:10,640
Speaker 1: also need I remind you two years ago your boy

1219
01:03:11,440 --> 01:03:14,320
Speaker 1: was in the tunnel at Michigan Stadium when the big

1220
01:03:14,360 --> 01:03:19,040
Speaker 1: kerfuffle broke out. Fox was broadcasting the game. I don't

1221
01:03:19,040 --> 01:03:21,360
Speaker 1: know if I told this story. Fox had the game.

1222
01:03:21,880 --> 01:03:23,600
Speaker 1: Fox had to hit me up and ask for the

1223
01:03:23,600 --> 01:03:25,640
Speaker 1: footage because they didn't even have a camera up there.

1224
01:03:25,640 --> 01:03:27,360
Speaker 1: And you know what, I happen to like the folks

1225
01:03:27,360 --> 01:03:29,760
Speaker 1: over there, so I obliged. And you know what I

1226
01:03:29,840 --> 01:03:33,920
Speaker 1: charged them, Jesse, nothing, nothing, and shame on me for it.

1227
01:03:33,920 --> 01:03:36,480
Speaker 1: Look at me out there working for free, shameful. Anyway,

1228
01:03:38,280 --> 01:03:40,680
Speaker 1: I've got the eye Josh in hand, and I will

1229
01:03:40,680 --> 01:03:43,240
Speaker 1: have access there before they opened the gates to the public,

1230
01:03:43,240 --> 01:03:45,440
Speaker 1: and I'll be places you can't see on TV, so

1231
01:03:45,560 --> 01:03:49,000
Speaker 1: you never know what you'll see in the Instagram store,

1232
01:03:49,280 --> 01:03:52,720
Speaker 1: you never know. I am headed off to Harris County,

1233
01:03:52,720 --> 01:03:54,360
Speaker 1: Georgia when I get off air tonight. So thank you

1234
01:03:54,440 --> 01:03:56,720
Speaker 1: guys so much. Have a great Thanksgiving for producer Jesse,

1235
01:03:56,800 --> 01:04:00,960
Speaker 1: director Colin. I'm Josh Baate, Take care, enjoy Rivalry Week,

1236
01:04:01,000 --> 01:04:03,600
Speaker 1: and we'll be back here Sunday night. Take care, God

1237
01:04:03,600 --> 01:04:18,360
Speaker 1: bless must be twenty one or over and present in

1238
01:04:18,400 --> 01:04:21,840
Speaker 1: select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas

1239
01:04:21,960 --> 01:04:25,560
Speaker 1: under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. First online

1240
01:04:25,560 --> 01:04:29,400
Speaker 1: real money wager only ten dollars first deposit required. Bonus

1241
01:04:29,440 --> 01:04:32,439
Speaker 1: issued as non withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days

1242
01:04:32,480 --> 01:04:35,920
Speaker 1: after receipt. Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler, or

1243
01:04:36,040 --> 01:04:41,520
Speaker 1: visitfanduel dot com backslash rg in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan,

1244
01:04:41,680 --> 01:04:46,440
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia. Call one

1245
01:04:46,480 --> 01:04:49,919
Speaker 1: eight hundred, next step or text next step to five

1246
01:04:50,000 --> 01:04:53,040
Speaker 1: three three four two in Arizona one eight eight eight

1247
01:04:53,080 --> 01:04:56,800
Speaker 1: seven eight nine seven seven seven seven, or visit CCPG

1248
01:04:57,000 --> 01:05:00,680
Speaker 1: dot org backslash chat in Connecticut one eight hundred and

1249
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Speaker 1: nine with it in Indiana one eight hundred five two

1250
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Speaker 1: two forty seven hundred, or visit KS gambling heelp dot

1251
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Speaker 1: com in Kansas one eight seven seven seven seven oh

1252
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Speaker 1: stop in Louisiana. Visit MD gamblinghelp dot org in Maryland.

1253
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Speaker 1: Visit one eight hundred gambler dot net. In West Virginia,

1254
01:05:19,600 --> 01:05:22,360
Speaker 1: or call one eight hundred five two two forty seven

1255
01:05:22,440 --> 01:05:26,840
Speaker 1: hundred in Wyoming, Hope is here. Visit gambling heelpline MA

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Speaker 1: dot org or call eight hundred three two seven fifty

1257
01:05:30,440 --> 01:05:33,600
Speaker 1: fifty for twenty four seven support in Massachusetts, or call

1258
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Speaker 1: one eight seven seven eight hope dash n Y or

1259
01:05:37,120 --> 01:05:39,320
Speaker 1: text hope n Y in New York