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Speaker 2: An extended conversation with Edward Yard Denny. He's your Denny
Speaker 2: Research definitive CJ. Lawrence a few years ago a long
Speaker 2: tour of duty of must read at Prudential Bish Securities
Speaker 2: and has been one of the true bowls of his
Speaker 2: roaring twenties. Edgar Denny, How roaring are our roaring twenties?
Speaker 3: Well, I think things are looking better ever since April ninth,
Speaker 3: which was the postponement of the so called Liberation Day,
Speaker 3: and then of course on May twelfth there was another
Speaker 3: postponement of the tariffs on China, and so the stock
Speaker 3: markets had a v shaped recovery since then, and the
Speaker 3: stock markets had a kind of a roaring twenty correction
Speaker 3: followed by an amazing recovery.
Speaker 2: Let me translate the modesty you just heard their folks.
Speaker 2: Edgiar Denny defined bond equity currency commodity vigilantes. Edgar Denny.
Speaker 3: The vigilantes spoke, didn't they absolutely. It was on April eighth,
Speaker 3: the day before the postponement of the tariffs, so that
Speaker 3: the bond yield basically went up from four percent to
Speaker 3: four and a half percent. That got the attention to
Speaker 3: the administration. Freaked them out, actually, and even the President
Speaker 3: technology verbally said that, you know that the bond market's
Speaker 3: reaction to his policies him to postpone the tariffs. He
Speaker 3: subsequently denied that, but he said it. And it's pretty
Speaker 3: clear that he had sort of a Bill Clinton moment
Speaker 3: back in the early nineteen nineties. James Carvill and Robert
Speaker 3: Rubin warrened Clinton that he had to have fiscal discipline
Speaker 3: otherwise the bond market would come and get him. And
Speaker 3: that's exactly what happened to Donald Trump on April eighth,
Speaker 3: and then he reversed his policy or postponed his policy
Speaker 3: on April ninth.
Speaker 4: And we still have even though some of these terroriffsmen
Speaker 4: rolled back, we still have teriffts that are well in
Speaker 4: excess of kind of where we started the year here.
Speaker 4: How does that impact economic growth inflation? How do you
Speaker 4: kind of factor that in these days?
Speaker 3: Well, first and foremost, I've been observing and predicting a
Speaker 3: continuation of the economy's resilience. It's been over the past
Speaker 3: three years. We had the most widely anticipated recession of
Speaker 3: all times that never happened. It was the good Doe
Speaker 3: recession and the no show recession. And now we and
Speaker 3: that was in expectations that the Titaningo monetary policy would
Speaker 3: cause a recession.
Speaker 5: We argued that that might not be the case.
Speaker 3: And now, of course the whole tariff turmoil has got
Speaker 3: people thinking that we're going to have a recession. But
Speaker 3: those recession odds have been coming down, at least in
Speaker 3: the part of the consensus, and that's because Donald Trump.
Speaker 3: President Donald Trump has blinked several times on the terriff issue.
Speaker 3: But as you said, it's still there. It's just not
Speaker 3: as onerous as it was when it was initially announced.
Speaker 3: But it doesn't mean that we're probably going to have
Speaker 3: about of stagflation for a few months where the economy
Speaker 3: looks somewhat weaker in the summer with more inflation.
Speaker 4: So ed given that background, how do you think about
Speaker 4: this whole allocation stocks, bonds, alternatives kind of where do
Speaker 4: you see the best opportunity these days.
Speaker 3: Well, you know, I've been bullish on this market since
Speaker 3: the November of twenty twenty two, so we did call
Speaker 3: the bottom in October, and it's hard to tell people
Speaker 3: to jump on board of this speeding train right now.
Speaker 3: I would just stay invested in the stock market, and
Speaker 3: I continue to recommend avoiding information technology, communications industrials and financials.
Speaker 3: So I would stay with the stock market for sure.
Speaker 2: The ambiguity here, I think is absolutely profound. And the
Speaker 2: basic idea here is we have a global lifting yields.
Speaker 2: Whether I look at UK gilts, I look at the
Speaker 2: real uncertainties in Japan in that and what's so hard
Speaker 2: in the modern media is to understand the zeitgeist is
Speaker 2: higher yields are bad.
Speaker 3: Push against that, Well, higher yields should be, but they
Speaker 3: haven't been bad. We have seen a global bull market
Speaker 3: in stocks, even though we've seen bond yields increase. Now
Speaker 3: my view is that to a large extent, bondieals of normalized,
Speaker 3: they're back to where they should be. Twenty half percent
Speaker 3: is the right bond yield for the US economy. That
Speaker 3: was the case before the Great Financial Crisis, and I
Speaker 3: think it's the case against Now. You know, maybe we're
Speaker 3: getting some excesses in the UK, some excesses in Japan.
Speaker 3: But you know, if you want to be US centric,
Speaker 3: which to be, I think these bondials are kind of normal.
Speaker 3: But I do see a risk that there could be
Speaker 3: a mini debt crisis the way there was in twenty
Speaker 3: twenty three. In some ways, Tom, I hope there is,
Speaker 3: because I think now's a good time for a debt
Speaker 3: crisis to get the attention of the politicians in Washington,
Speaker 3: that they got to get their act together.
Speaker 2: As you'r Denny with us your DNNY research. We welcome
Speaker 2: all of you in your commute across a nation. Good morning,
Speaker 2: Bloomberg eleven three to zero in our global Wall Street.
Speaker 2: Good morning, I should say, good afternoon in England and
Speaker 2: the city and in Paris as well. Thank you so
Speaker 2: much for tuning in on all of our audio products
Speaker 2: and of course on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg podcast ed
Speaker 2: Your Denny's Dog in the Couch.
Speaker 3: The Research is Subscribe to Bloomberg Max, Max you got
Speaker 3: I got a note for Max.
Speaker 2: Say the dog the dog looks stressed ed. I mean,
Speaker 2: I mean if I look at the dog, I mean
Speaker 2: the tension in the market's really really affecting Max.
Speaker 3: Right, Max really keeps me calm, He keeps me grounded.
Speaker 3: Sometimes he puts me to sleep, but.
Speaker 2: Says that about me too exactly.
Speaker 4: Hey, you mentioned that a debt crisis. I mean, I've
Speaker 4: been in this market since the mid eighties. We've been
Speaker 4: talking about deficits in the national debt and it just
Speaker 4: doesn't match. Is really important. Yeah, can you give us
Speaker 4: some context there?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Absolutely.
Speaker 3: Back in July of nineteen eighty three is when I
Speaker 3: concocted the term bond vigilantes. And I went back and
Speaker 3: read what I wrote, and I said, the bond vigilantes
Speaker 3: are particularly upset about record two hundred billion dollar deficits.
Speaker 5: And here we're looking.
Speaker 3: At two trillion dollar deficits and talking about the bond
Speaker 3: vigilantes once again. Behind me, I have a bookshelf, and
Speaker 3: on the top shelf, I've got a bunch of books
Speaker 3: from the nineteen eighties. You know, debt bomb, you know,
Speaker 3: drowning in debt, all kinds of end of the world
Speaker 3: kind of scenarios with debt. And here we are and
Speaker 3: stock market basically at an all time high. So the
Speaker 3: end of the world hasn't occurred yet, and you have
Speaker 3: some very smart people like Ray Dallio basically arguing that
Speaker 3: it's imminent that we're going to have a crisis, that
Speaker 3: we might have a buyer strike.
Speaker 2: Well, this is important. I'm taking Paul's territory here, but
Speaker 2: it's just too important. When people give you the doom
Speaker 2: and gloom, isn't that the time where you acquire shares?
Speaker 2: That's what John Templeton would say.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, It's yeah, it's when your your gut hurts and
Speaker 3: you just want to get out. Tom, I have to
Speaker 3: brag I have a really good track record at calling
Speaker 3: bottoms more so than tops. And that's because I have
Speaker 3: a relative that I don't speak to it too often
Speaker 3: that always calls me at bottoms and said, Eddie, should
Speaker 3: I get out? All of a sudden, we're best friends,
Speaker 3: you know, so uh yeah, it's uh, it's it's when
Speaker 3: you're your your uncle Max calls you up and says,
Speaker 3: you know, I know you follow the stock market?
Speaker 5: Should you get out? That makes the bottom ed?
Speaker 4: What do you make in the where investors should be
Speaker 4: positioned in the fixed income market here? Because you considered
Speaker 4: a two year treasury, you make on your four percent,
Speaker 4: or do you go out there and take some credit risk.
Speaker 3: Well, you know, it's it's kind of weird, right. Credit
Speaker 3: risk used to be high yield bonds, corporate bonds. Now
Speaker 3: suddenly we're all worrying about the thirty year treasury in Japan,
Speaker 3: the thirty year treasury in the United States.
Speaker 5: So I.
Speaker 3: Would stay I always stay short for now, but I
Speaker 3: think there could be a really great opportunity to jump
Speaker 3: back into the bond market. You know, the ten year
Speaker 3: could revisit born three quarters five percent here pretty shortly.
Speaker 3: If the bond agilantes are not pleased with what they
Speaker 3: see coming out of Washington and that, you know, if
Speaker 3: their view is the big beautiful bill is actually the
Speaker 3: big ugly bill, we'll know that pretty quickly.
Speaker 4: And one of the new areas that's been just seeing
Speaker 4: amazing growth on global Wall Street in the last I
Speaker 4: don't know fifteen years or so, has been private credit.
Speaker 4: How do you think about that when you talk to
Speaker 4: your clients.
Speaker 5: Well, I don't know. I like securities.
Speaker 3: I like to buy securities where there's a liquid market
Speaker 3: and I can get in and out and I know
Speaker 3: what these things are worth. I really don't have a
Speaker 3: problem with private credit, but I wouldn't overdo it there.
Speaker 3: I get a little suspicious when I see that the
Speaker 3: private credit industry is starting to become very democratic and
Speaker 3: create ETFs that allow them basically to unload the back
Speaker 3: stuff into ETFs.
Speaker 5: So I think they've had a good record, but I'd
Speaker 5: be careful.
Speaker 2: And just one final question here, and I think it's
Speaker 2: really really important for her. There's Center Force five hundred.
Speaker 2: How does Edgyard Denny find a select group of stocks
Speaker 2: within the standard imports five hundred to believe in? Is
Speaker 2: your method like free cash flow? Is it more economic
Speaker 2: based almost a Shiller analysis? How do you go about
Speaker 2: choosing the security for the long run?
Speaker 3: Well, first and foremost, we don't pick individual stocks on
Speaker 3: our forte so we basically tend to provide an opinion
Speaker 3: whether we think the stock market's going to continue to
Speaker 3: go up and which sectors within that are likely to
Speaker 3: per form. So I think the short answer is yes,
Speaker 3: based on the economic outlook. I started out on Wall
Speaker 3: Street as the chief economist of E. F. Hutton, and
Speaker 3: then in a few years later I became also the
Speaker 3: strategist at CJ. Lawrence, So sort of combining the two
Speaker 3: disciplines that guide my work on sectors and industries. You know,
Speaker 3: we've liked information technology, we've liked as semiiconductors, and they've
Speaker 3: been one heck of a roller coaster ride, but basically
Speaker 3: it's been improfitable.
Speaker 2: What's your SPX call here a year end or even
Speaker 2: out twelve months.
Speaker 3: Well, you know, I've been doing a lot of work
Speaker 3: on that, and i just want everybody to know that
Speaker 3: the DXY Dollar Index is very misleading index. It's a
Speaker 3: fixed weight index, it's not a trade weighted dollar, and
Speaker 3: fifty seven percent of it is the euro, So you
Speaker 3: might as well just look at the Euro dollar exchange
Speaker 3: rate when you're looking at DXY. I like the MSCI
Speaker 3: organization actually puts out a daily trade dollar which is identical,
Speaker 3: almost identical to what the Fed does. And to me,
Speaker 3: the dollar remains at an upward trend. To me, the
Speaker 3: dollars going sideways relative to develop develop the currencies. But
Speaker 3: in terms of emerging the dollar is very strong. So
Speaker 3: I'm not in this. You know, you know, end of
Speaker 3: the world scenario for the dollar.
Speaker 2: Well, give me the sand first five hundred. Are you
Speaker 2: out to seven thousand? Still? If you reaffirm that off
Speaker 2: of all the tariff news.
Speaker 3: Well, I started out the year at seven thousand, and
Speaker 3: I think strategists were generally kind of near that kind
Speaker 3: of level. Maybe I was at the high end and
Speaker 3: Trump got me. So I did lower it to sixty
Speaker 3: four hundred in our early March, and then in late
Speaker 3: March I lowered it to six thousand.
Speaker 2: We are I going to make some news today. I
Speaker 2: can you give me seven thousand here you're on a
Speaker 2: sleepy May morning.
Speaker 3: Well, I'll give you sixty five hundred, which is what
Speaker 3: I've raised it to, with the possibility of getting back
Speaker 3: up to to seven thousand, and I've told people I
Speaker 3: reserved the right to change my mind as often as
Speaker 3: the president.
Speaker 2: Max just rolled over when he heard that. Think we
Speaker 2: said good morning to Max on the couch. For those
Speaker 2: of you on Bloomberg, till the dog is come casual
Speaker 2: here on a May morning. Ed your Denny thank you
Speaker 2: so much with your Denny Research. Again, we protect the
Speaker 2: copyright of all of our guests research. Go to your
Speaker 2: Denny Research. It's a terrific value. Can't say enough about
Speaker 2: the use of it. Off your cell.
Speaker 1: Phone, you're listening to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Catch US
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Speaker 2: Joining US now from Europe alder schmediaan of course with
Speaker 2: Barren bergerg wonderful to have you in our studio. Thank you.
Speaker 2: Is Brexit dead? Let's just start with that headline.
Speaker 7: No, Unfortunately, Brexit is not dead. Brexit is there to stay. We, however,
Speaker 7: are getting a little pain relief now with the UK
Speaker 7: drawing it a little closer on a few issues to
Speaker 7: the EU. Again, Brexit has been really bad for the
Speaker 7: UK economy and now the day it will be slightly
Speaker 7: slightly mitigated.
Speaker 2: Do we underestimate growth in the continent and in the
Speaker 2: United Kingdom? I keep seeing Paul six months later. Oops, yep,
Speaker 2: and up we go.
Speaker 7: I mean, all in all, a relative to the circumstances
Speaker 7: which are globally not all that good to put in,
Speaker 7: the Europe is indeed holding up. What we continue to
Speaker 7: overlook occasionally is that especially southern Europe is mostly not
Speaker 7: all of it, but mostly doing well, reaping the rewards
Speaker 7: of the harsh reforms after the Euro crisis, and that
Speaker 7: in the UK already with Rishi Sunak and then Kiel
Speaker 7: Stamer starting to reset relations with the EU, there is
Speaker 7: also a bit of a dynamic in the UK.
Speaker 4: Is the EU at all receptive to I don't know
Speaker 4: some of the UK's overtures here. If I'm the EU,
Speaker 4: I'm like, now, you guys already voted well.
Speaker 7: On the pragmatic level, the EU wants to strike the
Speaker 7: and it is striking deeds. Of course, this is the EU,
Speaker 7: the big EU relative to the smaller UK, which is
Speaker 7: about one six of the size of the EU economy.
Speaker 7: And as a result, the EU does not allow cherry picking.
Speaker 7: That is for the UK to simply say, this is
Speaker 7: the part we love, this is the part we don't
Speaker 7: like about the EU. We want to have only the cherries.
Speaker 7: But we do see pragmatic progress and in the age
Speaker 7: of Putine and also in the age of Trump, we
Speaker 7: know I have to say there is a clear Russia
Speaker 7: now for the UK and the EU to work together
Speaker 7: on the military but also easing some of the economic
Speaker 7: pains from Brexit for the UK.
Speaker 4: So we saw the plans coming out of Germany, you know,
Speaker 4: several months ago about reinvesting in their defense, in their infrastructure.
Speaker 4: That's fine for Germany. Can the rest of Europe do that?
Speaker 7: The rest of Europe does not have the physical space
Speaker 7: for that. But look at a map. Germany is much
Speaker 7: closer to Russia, to US Ukraine than most of the
Speaker 7: rest of Europe, as is Poland. As is Poland has
Speaker 7: a independently order. He raised its defense spending a lot,
Speaker 7: so have the Baltics. Germany was in a way the
Speaker 7: big missing country, the country with fiscal space not doing
Speaker 7: enough yet, and it's now clothing the gap.
Speaker 4: So is that suggests that the European accountry, like we
Speaker 4: saw a lot of investors in the first part of
Speaker 4: this year move money out of the US into Europe
Speaker 4: in stocks and bonds and currencies. Is that something you
Speaker 4: think is credible and is longer lasting?
Speaker 7: Do you think, well, there was a bit of europhoia, yeah,
Speaker 7: late February, early March, and that has passed. But that
Speaker 7: was just a little overdone. The underlying another of this
Speaker 7: is correct with Germany getting its act sort of together,
Speaker 7: not never fully, but sort of together. With Germany using
Speaker 7: its fiscal space to improve its growth prospects via infrastructure,
Speaker 7: and with Germany doing more to defend itself and basically
Speaker 7: also the rest of Europe against Putine. Europe is a
Speaker 7: more attractive place. And then you have the US problems.
Speaker 7: You have Trump that, you have tariffs, you have the
Speaker 7: distrust in US institutions, and as a result, the US
Speaker 7: looks less and Europe looks a bit more attract I don't.
Speaker 2: Care about the economics. Do you see a boom year
Speaker 2: for tourism in Europe?
Speaker 7: There's so much a word, but yes, this is one
Speaker 7: of part of the European economy which looks set to
Speaker 7: grow quite nice. It's like a big part, right, It's
Speaker 7: a significant part for Southern Europe especially, And indeed tourism
Speaker 7: looks good. Industry, of course, and a few services are
Speaker 7: still under the cloud of the Trump trade wars, but
Speaker 7: tourism is good. Welcome to Europe, I tell you it's
Speaker 7: a great place, as of course, I really.
Speaker 2: And I looked at the obligatory flight I called fifty
Speaker 2: seven fifty six, which is United out of Newark, just
Speaker 2: happens to be the flight I look at, and they're
Speaker 2: giving it away, pat are they ready? Three thousand and
Speaker 2: four dollars Holger Schmeeting Class.
Speaker 4: And you're going, yeah, you're not.
Speaker 2: We're not the It's like new low I mean, but I.
Speaker 4: Mean, Holger, We've got the Euro at one spot one
Speaker 4: two here. We're not a parody for the Euro. How
Speaker 4: high I mean? Is that reflective of the expectations for
Speaker 4: Europe in general?
Speaker 7: The Euro is still a bit undervalued if I compare
Speaker 7: it under If I compare what I say here in
Speaker 7: New York for my hotel and for my t relative
Speaker 7: to what I will pay in a major European capital,
Speaker 7: and if I compare many other prices, the euro is
Speaker 7: still modestly undervalued. We will likely go towards one twenty
Speaker 7: next year problem, and then we'll have to see if
Speaker 7: the US gets his fiscal housing order or not. If
Speaker 7: the US does not, five years from now, we might
Speaker 7: be at one fifty.
Speaker 2: A million years ago, the trade minister of France, her
Speaker 2: name was Le Guard, called me up and said you
Speaker 2: got to go to some meeting in New York and
Speaker 2: it was an innovation in technology. They were setting up
Speaker 2: a satellite out of CDG and in Paris. Okay, every
Speaker 2: article is Europe's missed the boat in technology, Halger, How
Speaker 2: do the leaders of europe initial initiate catching up in technology.
Speaker 7: We will catch up in using the new technologies we've
Speaker 7: always been good at that. The Internet wasn't quite invented
Speaker 7: in Europe, but the Internet of Things, yeah, this is
Speaker 7: where Europe is very strong. The same will likely happen
Speaker 7: with artificial intelligence. Unfortunately, partly because we don't have the
Speaker 7: capital market and the institution to scale up the many
Speaker 7: startups we have as rapidly as it happens in the US,
Speaker 7: we will not have the really, really big, immediate pioneer
Speaker 7: companies on artificial intelligence. But when it comes to using
Speaker 7: our highly qualified workforce YEAP to turn artificial intelligence into
Speaker 7: something that's good for all of us, then European companies
Speaker 7: will be there.
Speaker 2: This has been wonderful, holdersating, Thank you so much for Fairenberg.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 1: say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Angela Stent was my book of the Year. I made
Speaker 2: my book of the Year a couple of years ago
Speaker 2: on a February, I think Thursday. Her book is Putin's World.
Speaker 2: It is the single one biography on the makeup of
Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin. We're honored that Angela Stent could join us
Speaker 2: this morning. Angela, Chapter three of your book, Ambivalent Europeans.
Speaker 2: Is Vladimir Putin an ambivalent European?
Speaker 8: I think Vladimir Putin is by now a convinced Eurasianist,
Speaker 8: even though he speaks Germany. He lived in East Germany
Speaker 8: for five years. I think if you listen to what
Speaker 8: the Russian talk shows are saying, and what even Putin
Speaker 8: himself is saying, they're highly critical of the Europeans because
Speaker 8: they are now in a situation where the Trump administration
Speaker 8: has been able to accomplish what neither the Soviet Union
Speaker 8: or post Soviet Russia was able to do, and that's
Speaker 8: to split work from the US.
Speaker 2: Is President Trump helping or is he in the way
Speaker 2: of a constructive outcome?
Speaker 8: So I don't think he's helping at the moment, because
Speaker 8: you know, having gotten the Ukrainians and the Europeans to say, yes,
Speaker 8: we have to have a thirty day interim ceasefire before
Speaker 8: we can really negotiate. Pudin has refused to do this.
Speaker 8: Apparently in the phone call yesterday they didn't even discuss
Speaker 8: a ceasefire in two and a half hours. So that's
Speaker 8: really not helping get us anywhere nearer to stopping the
Speaker 8: killing and talking constructively about what comes afterwards.
Speaker 4: In reality, Angela, I think just by looking at history
Speaker 4: of the last one hundred years, Russia is not going anywhere.
Speaker 4: They can keep at this for as long as anybody
Speaker 4: ken is there any leverage anybody has over Russia.
Speaker 8: So you know, there is a big package of sanctions
Speaker 8: that's been prepared by bipartisan by the US Congress, Republicans
Speaker 8: and Democrats. The Treasury Department has a sanctions packet ready
Speaker 8: to go. Scott bestn't put it on President Trump's desk,
Speaker 8: But nothing's happening. They're not imposing any sanctions, and that's
Speaker 8: what Putin really wanted to avoid. And the other thing
Speaker 8: that could be done would be to give Ukraine more
Speaker 8: arms to help it push back more because nobody thinks
Speaker 8: there's going to be another sup supplemental coming forward. So
Speaker 8: the only other leverage there is, of course oil prices
Speaker 8: and sixty dollars or above oil prices is what keeps
Speaker 8: the Russian economy going in the budget doing well. If
Speaker 8: oil prices remain low, certainly in the forties or even
Speaker 8: the early fifties by next year, that will have a
Speaker 8: fairly serious impact in Russia.
Speaker 4: Aside from President Trump, is there anyone in Congress who
Speaker 4: feels like something needs to be done? Or is this
Speaker 4: squarely on the President's desk at the moment?
Speaker 8: I mean, Senator Graham has been one of the supporters
Speaker 8: of the sanctions bill. There are a number of both
Speaker 8: Republican and Democratic Congress people who think that we should
Speaker 8: be imposing more sanctions. But every time there's talk of it,
Speaker 8: it doesn't happen.
Speaker 2: I mean, I got as an amount of time, but
Speaker 2: I've got there's so many important questions. Let me go
Speaker 2: to the Kremlin. How alone is Vladimir Putin? Is he's
Speaker 2: calling every shot? I guess we assume that from your
Speaker 2: wonderful book. But is there an after Putin? Is there
Speaker 2: a process in Russia with Putin or after Putin?
Speaker 8: So we have no idea about that, but it doesn't
Speaker 8: look as if there is. Because every time you have
Speaker 8: an up and coming younger person who maybe be a
Speaker 8: successor they're not. So what Putin has the backing of Jusionping.
Speaker 8: That's probably the single most important thing.
Speaker 2: Very quickly here, Professor stentt just as simple as I
Speaker 2: can do, you believe in the domino theory here.
Speaker 8: The domino theory that.
Speaker 2: After Ukraine he looks at the Bultic States, after Ukraine
Speaker 2: he looks at fourteen feet into Finland. I mean, is
Speaker 2: they're a domino theory here. I do believe in it.
Speaker 8: I don't think it would happen immediately, but if Putin
Speaker 8: wins in Ukraine, then Ukraine is in the last country
Speaker 8: that Russia's going to attack.
Speaker 2: Angels stent thank you so much. I'll tell you, folks,
Speaker 2: it's a two book tandem on Russia. Stephanie Baker's wonderful book.
Speaker 2: It's been hugely successful for miss Baker of Bloomberg in London,
Speaker 2: punishing Putin In. The foundation before that is Angelus Stence
Speaker 2: Putin's World, Russia against the West. I can't say enough
Speaker 2: about the book as a one volume read, mesmerizing on
Speaker 2: the youth and the upbringing of Vladimir.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
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Speaker 2: Daniel Tannembaum is a global traveler with Oliver Wyman and
Speaker 2: joins us here. He is world expert on sanctions and
Speaker 2: so much more. Does a disarray in the domestic issues
Speaker 2: of America does that diminish our execution of foreign policy?
Speaker 2: Den I think it does.
Speaker 6: I talk to folks in the European Commission and the
Speaker 6: British government. Often they are emotionally resigned to having the
Speaker 6: deal and constrain issues like Russia without US involvement. In February,
Speaker 6: they were reluctant to believe it. I think everyone realizes
Speaker 6: there's enough issues in the US going on that dealing
Speaker 6: with Russia offensively is not a high priority. So I
Speaker 6: do think some of these domestic issues are having an impact,
Speaker 6: But in a sense he is a unifier, but in
Speaker 6: not ways that benefit America. You're seeing trade deals get
Speaker 6: struck that don't involve the US, like Mercosre in the EU,
Speaker 6: so it is creating an impact that may not be
Speaker 6: as beneficial to the US.
Speaker 2: In the end, Dan, what do.
Speaker 4: You make of the phone call President Trump and President
Speaker 4: Putin had yesterday regarding Ukraine. There's some different reporting about
Speaker 4: what actually was achieved. What's your read of that.
Speaker 6: I think we kicked the can again. It doesn't sound
Speaker 6: like any concessions were offered on the part of Russia.
Speaker 6: You know, the big announcement that the president made that
Speaker 6: President Trump made after the call was that there will
Speaker 6: be more talks. Well, what was last week in Istanbul?
Speaker 6: When they were already talks. I mean, if the whole
Speaker 6: point is trying to force Russia to reverse course, talks
Speaker 6: aren't going to do it. We saw today the UK
Speaker 6: and EU have announced additional sanctions that are significant, doing
Speaker 6: it again without the US.
Speaker 2: The US has.
Speaker 6: Yet to really at least publicly impose sanctions on Russia
Speaker 6: since this administration has taken office. Again.
Speaker 2: Why, I mean, I understand Donald Trump and I don't
Speaker 2: need to get into the Putin Trump thing. I think
Speaker 2: we're all hit over the head by that constantly. Okay, war,
Speaker 2: they invaded a country. Why is Europe? Why are the
Speaker 2: US struggling with instituting sanctions on a country that's a
Speaker 2: borderline frontier economy?
Speaker 6: I think we should differentiate. It's not the country. I
Speaker 6: think it's this administration. Congress has sanctions that are ready
Speaker 6: to roll. There's actually a package that's been on the
Speaker 6: President's desk for three weeks to impose additional sanctions on Russia.
Speaker 6: He will sign that will apply additional pressure. How much
Speaker 6: they'll hinder is a question the why. I mean, the
Speaker 6: argument that the president is making is that additional sanctions
Speaker 6: are unhelpful to the negotiations with Russia. And so that
Speaker 6: is the argument. Anytime President Putin looks as if he
Speaker 6: anytime President Putin looks as if he, you know, is
Speaker 6: playing ball, it pushes off any sort of need for pressure,
Speaker 6: and the president seems to believe that argument.
Speaker 4: Is there any leverage that the US or the Europeans
Speaker 4: really have against Putin? Kid just feels like if you
Speaker 4: just look back at history over the last one hundred years,
Speaker 4: these Russians can have some staying power.
Speaker 6: They can, but you can lower the price of the
Speaker 6: oil price cap, which has been at sixty dollars for
Speaker 6: the last few years. Oil's trading at what's sixty five
Speaker 6: a barrel, so you can begin to reduce the revenue
Speaker 6: that Russia is generating from oil. You can go after
Speaker 6: more third country actors, but we have yet to really
Speaker 6: see the US do anything publicly.
Speaker 2: I mean I don't have the romantic life of Dan Tanabon.
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, the Oliver. He doesn't have the
Speaker 2: Oliver and Women Gulf Stream because Hugh von Steinas has
Speaker 2: it most of the time. I'm more interested in Dan Tannabon.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just
Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Right now, newspapers. We look at the newspapers, Lisa Matteo
Speaker 2: and her team of interns looking at twenty thirty rags
Speaker 2: to see what to do today. What do you got, Lisa?
Speaker 9: Okay, I'm starting with the most glamorous sporting event in
Speaker 9: the world. Low talking about the US. Oh, you know
Speaker 9: the tennis tournament.
Speaker 4: I know is the day to go see see.
Speaker 9: Okay, So it generates one hundreds of million dollar every year, right,
Speaker 9: it's getting this eight hundred million dollars. Makeover scheduled to
Speaker 9: be completed in time by twenty twenty seven. For that
Speaker 9: US open construction's already started. So what is actually happening? Okay,
Speaker 9: so it's including this overhaul of Arthur Arthur sh Stadium,
Speaker 9: so as Paul knows, sometimes gets a little crowded. You know,
Speaker 9: it's trying to send as Tito's and soda and he
Speaker 9: needs more elbow room. Okay, so they're adding a little
Speaker 9: bit more space, putting a few more seating in there.
Speaker 9: They're also getting new building just for the players. So
Speaker 9: the players get this new building, state of the art
Speaker 9: training facility, luxury accommodations, cafes just for them. So this
Speaker 9: has been going on. But the USA, how are they
Speaker 9: going to pay for this? That's the question that everyone
Speaker 9: is asking. Reserve funds, debt and it's not going to
Speaker 9: require any more land in the park because they're they're
Speaker 9: leasing that out.
Speaker 2: To me, it was when I went, it was way
Speaker 2: too packed. I mean, it was just no fun. The merch,
Speaker 2: the merch going out of the store.
Speaker 5: Pall was unreal.
Speaker 4: It's it's phenomenal, but I mean there's vodka was something
Speaker 4: that money did get the great Goose Honey Deuce cocktail.
Speaker 2: That's what it was. That's where you go.
Speaker 4: Yep, And that'll save you back twenty or twenty five bucks.
Speaker 4: But it's it's worth it. But I go the first
Speaker 4: Tuesday because then you get ze everybody and everybody's practicing.
Speaker 4: Nobody's knocked out of the tournam. You can go to
Speaker 4: a practice court and see, like you know, a top
Speaker 4: ten person playing in a practice round. It's about it. Yeah,
Speaker 4: it's the thing park. Yeah, but it's fine.
Speaker 2: It's no.
Speaker 4: You take the Long Island Railroad drops your right there.
Speaker 4: It is the take the l people are right to
Speaker 4: the stadium in two grade and you go to the
Speaker 4: day on the first Tuesday.
Speaker 9: I have to go.
Speaker 8: It is a experience.
Speaker 2: It is experience.
Speaker 9: Literally, is there like live reporting you've never been to the.
Speaker 4: Actually have fun? Yeah, okay, let's.
Speaker 9: Go to Thursday night football.
Speaker 7: Okay.
Speaker 9: So in the past it's been like this place like this,
Speaker 9: dumping around right for games that are expected to not
Speaker 9: view very well. But things have started changed under Amazon.
Speaker 9: Bloomberg actually spoke with the head of sports and Advertising
Speaker 9: at Amazon Prime Video and they said view a Thursday
Speaker 9: night football increase forty percent. Since Prime Video's first year
Speaker 9: of streaming the show, so that more people are starting
Speaker 9: to watch. The average viewer is also seven years younger
Speaker 9: than other channels, so that's something.
Speaker 7: That advertisers like.
Speaker 9: But they also scored their strongest lineup, so they have
Speaker 9: in week two the opening twenty four five season matchup
Speaker 9: between Green Bay Packers Washington Commanders. They also have two
Speaker 9: appearances from the Philadelphia Eagles. They have ten divisional matchups
Speaker 9: on top of it, so there.
Speaker 4: People are getting more comfortable now finding sports on streaming
Speaker 4: and the answers.
Speaker 2: Football is leading the.
Speaker 4: Way absolutely, I mean just say it always does, it
Speaker 4: always does.
Speaker 2: I mean, you know why is Mets red socks. I
Speaker 2: still don't understand the regional baseball thing, you know is.
Speaker 4: A regional sport like hockey. Hockey is regional?
Speaker 2: Okay, just football, just do it like Cony.
Speaker 4: Time for one more here I do okay, quickly?
Speaker 9: Okay, So the National Dazoo's new handas right. We've been
Speaker 9: hearing about them, PANDAM, pandicam. They're actually warming up to
Speaker 9: one another, so who knows. There could be a baby
Speaker 9: along the way. But it's going to be timed down. Yes, yes,
Speaker 9: it's going to be much more time down the road.
Speaker 9: But they're starting to show some signs of interest to
Speaker 9: one another. So the zoo staffers are saying, you know what,
Speaker 9: this is a good sign. They're bleeding. Bleeding is like that,
Speaker 9: I guess a mating sound. I don't know. It's kind
Speaker 9: of like a sheep's bad but a higher pitch. I'm
Speaker 9: not going to do it for you, but they're starting
Speaker 9: to show that.
Speaker 4: But reproductive possibility is how the Washington post Reproductive possibility
Speaker 4: only last brief hours.
Speaker 9: They're very like they like to be alone pandas. I
Speaker 9: didn't realize that, so they're very like with the panda.
Speaker 9: But the males mature more slowly than females. Shocker, five
Speaker 9: years old is when they start this this connection, and
Speaker 9: they're a little bit younger than that. So we have
Speaker 9: some time, but there's a positive sign.
Speaker 2: I'm trying to put a ball. Thank you so much
Speaker 2: much for our sex education today.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each
Speaker 1: weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
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Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg Terminal