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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube Now.

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Speaker 2: An extended conversation with Edward Yard Denny. He's your Denny

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Speaker 2: Research definitive CJ. Lawrence a few years ago a long

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Speaker 2: tour of duty of must read at Prudential Bish Securities

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Speaker 2: and has been one of the true bowls of his

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Speaker 2: roaring twenties. Edgar Denny, How roaring are our roaring twenties?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think things are looking better ever since April ninth,

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Speaker 3: which was the postponement of the so called Liberation Day,

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Speaker 3: and then of course on May twelfth there was another

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Speaker 3: postponement of the tariffs on China, and so the stock

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Speaker 3: markets had a v shaped recovery since then, and the

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Speaker 3: stock markets had a kind of a roaring twenty correction

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Speaker 3: followed by an amazing recovery.

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Speaker 2: Let me translate the modesty you just heard their folks.

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Speaker 2: Edgiar Denny defined bond equity currency commodity vigilantes. Edgar Denny.

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Speaker 3: The vigilantes spoke, didn't they absolutely. It was on April eighth,

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Speaker 3: the day before the postponement of the tariffs, so that

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Speaker 3: the bond yield basically went up from four percent to

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Speaker 3: four and a half percent. That got the attention to

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Speaker 3: the administration. Freaked them out, actually, and even the President

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Speaker 3: technology verbally said that, you know that the bond market's

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Speaker 3: reaction to his policies him to postpone the tariffs. He

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Speaker 3: subsequently denied that, but he said it. And it's pretty

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Speaker 3: clear that he had sort of a Bill Clinton moment

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Speaker 3: back in the early nineteen nineties. James Carvill and Robert

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Speaker 3: Rubin warrened Clinton that he had to have fiscal discipline

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Speaker 3: otherwise the bond market would come and get him. And

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Speaker 3: that's exactly what happened to Donald Trump on April eighth,

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Speaker 3: and then he reversed his policy or postponed his policy

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Speaker 3: on April ninth.

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Speaker 4: And we still have even though some of these terroriffsmen

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Speaker 4: rolled back, we still have teriffts that are well in

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Speaker 4: excess of kind of where we started the year here.

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Speaker 4: How does that impact economic growth inflation? How do you

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Speaker 4: kind of factor that in these days?

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Speaker 3: Well, first and foremost, I've been observing and predicting a

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Speaker 3: continuation of the economy's resilience. It's been over the past

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Speaker 3: three years. We had the most widely anticipated recession of

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Speaker 3: all times that never happened. It was the good Doe

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Speaker 3: recession and the no show recession. And now we and

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Speaker 3: that was in expectations that the Titaningo monetary policy would

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Speaker 3: cause a recession.

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Speaker 5: We argued that that might not be the case.

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Speaker 3: And now, of course the whole tariff turmoil has got

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Speaker 3: people thinking that we're going to have a recession. But

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Speaker 3: those recession odds have been coming down, at least in

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Speaker 3: the part of the consensus, and that's because Donald Trump.

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Speaker 3: President Donald Trump has blinked several times on the terriff issue.

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Speaker 3: But as you said, it's still there. It's just not

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Speaker 3: as onerous as it was when it was initially announced.

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Speaker 3: But it doesn't mean that we're probably going to have

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Speaker 3: about of stagflation for a few months where the economy

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Speaker 3: looks somewhat weaker in the summer with more inflation.

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Speaker 4: So ed given that background, how do you think about

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Speaker 4: this whole allocation stocks, bonds, alternatives kind of where do

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Speaker 4: you see the best opportunity these days.

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Speaker 3: Well, you know, I've been bullish on this market since

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Speaker 3: the November of twenty twenty two, so we did call

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Speaker 3: the bottom in October, and it's hard to tell people

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Speaker 3: to jump on board of this speeding train right now.

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Speaker 3: I would just stay invested in the stock market, and

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Speaker 3: I continue to recommend avoiding information technology, communications industrials and financials.

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Speaker 3: So I would stay with the stock market for sure.

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Speaker 2: The ambiguity here, I think is absolutely profound. And the

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Speaker 2: basic idea here is we have a global lifting yields.

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Speaker 2: Whether I look at UK gilts, I look at the

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Speaker 2: real uncertainties in Japan in that and what's so hard

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Speaker 2: in the modern media is to understand the zeitgeist is

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Speaker 2: higher yields are bad.

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Speaker 3: Push against that, Well, higher yields should be, but they

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Speaker 3: haven't been bad. We have seen a global bull market

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Speaker 3: in stocks, even though we've seen bond yields increase. Now

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Speaker 3: my view is that to a large extent, bondieals of normalized,

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Speaker 3: they're back to where they should be. Twenty half percent

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Speaker 3: is the right bond yield for the US economy. That

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Speaker 3: was the case before the Great Financial Crisis, and I

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Speaker 3: think it's the case against Now. You know, maybe we're

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Speaker 3: getting some excesses in the UK, some excesses in Japan.

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Speaker 3: But you know, if you want to be US centric,

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Speaker 3: which to be, I think these bondials are kind of normal.

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Speaker 3: But I do see a risk that there could be

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Speaker 3: a mini debt crisis the way there was in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty three. In some ways, Tom, I hope there is,

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Speaker 3: because I think now's a good time for a debt

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Speaker 3: crisis to get the attention of the politicians in Washington,

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Speaker 3: that they got to get their act together.

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Speaker 2: As you'r Denny with us your DNNY research. We welcome

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Speaker 2: all of you in your commute across a nation. Good morning,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg eleven three to zero in our global Wall Street.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, I should say, good afternoon in England and

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Speaker 2: the city and in Paris as well. Thank you so

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Speaker 2: much for tuning in on all of our audio products

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Speaker 2: and of course on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg podcast ed

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Speaker 2: Your Denny's Dog in the Couch.

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Speaker 3: The Research is Subscribe to Bloomberg Max, Max you got

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Speaker 3: I got a note for Max.

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Speaker 2: Say the dog the dog looks stressed ed. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I mean if I look at the dog, I mean

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Speaker 2: the tension in the market's really really affecting Max.

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Speaker 3: Right, Max really keeps me calm, He keeps me grounded.

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Speaker 3: Sometimes he puts me to sleep, but.

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Speaker 2: Says that about me too exactly.

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Speaker 4: Hey, you mentioned that a debt crisis. I mean, I've

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Speaker 4: been in this market since the mid eighties. We've been

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Speaker 4: talking about deficits in the national debt and it just

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Speaker 4: doesn't match. Is really important. Yeah, can you give us

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Speaker 4: some context there?

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Speaker 6: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Absolutely.

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Speaker 3: Back in July of nineteen eighty three is when I

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Speaker 3: concocted the term bond vigilantes. And I went back and

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Speaker 3: read what I wrote, and I said, the bond vigilantes

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Speaker 3: are particularly upset about record two hundred billion dollar deficits.

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Speaker 5: And here we're looking.

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Speaker 3: At two trillion dollar deficits and talking about the bond

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Speaker 3: vigilantes once again. Behind me, I have a bookshelf, and

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Speaker 3: on the top shelf, I've got a bunch of books

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Speaker 3: from the nineteen eighties. You know, debt bomb, you know,

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Speaker 3: drowning in debt, all kinds of end of the world

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Speaker 3: kind of scenarios with debt. And here we are and

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Speaker 3: stock market basically at an all time high. So the

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Speaker 3: end of the world hasn't occurred yet, and you have

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Speaker 3: some very smart people like Ray Dallio basically arguing that

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Speaker 3: it's imminent that we're going to have a crisis, that

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Speaker 3: we might have a buyer strike.

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Speaker 2: Well, this is important. I'm taking Paul's territory here, but

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Speaker 2: it's just too important. When people give you the doom

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Speaker 2: and gloom, isn't that the time where you acquire shares?

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Speaker 2: That's what John Templeton would say.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, It's yeah, it's when your your gut hurts and

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Speaker 3: you just want to get out. Tom, I have to

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Speaker 3: brag I have a really good track record at calling

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Speaker 3: bottoms more so than tops. And that's because I have

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Speaker 3: a relative that I don't speak to it too often

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Speaker 3: that always calls me at bottoms and said, Eddie, should

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Speaker 3: I get out? All of a sudden, we're best friends,

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Speaker 3: you know, so uh yeah, it's uh, it's it's when

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Speaker 3: you're your your uncle Max calls you up and says,

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Speaker 3: you know, I know you follow the stock market?

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Speaker 5: Should you get out? That makes the bottom ed?

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Speaker 4: What do you make in the where investors should be

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Speaker 4: positioned in the fixed income market here? Because you considered

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Speaker 4: a two year treasury, you make on your four percent,

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Speaker 4: or do you go out there and take some credit risk.

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Speaker 3: Well, you know, it's it's kind of weird, right. Credit

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Speaker 3: risk used to be high yield bonds, corporate bonds. Now

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Speaker 3: suddenly we're all worrying about the thirty year treasury in Japan,

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Speaker 3: the thirty year treasury in the United States.

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Speaker 5: So I.

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Speaker 3: Would stay I always stay short for now, but I

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Speaker 3: think there could be a really great opportunity to jump

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Speaker 3: back into the bond market. You know, the ten year

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Speaker 3: could revisit born three quarters five percent here pretty shortly.

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Speaker 3: If the bond agilantes are not pleased with what they

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Speaker 3: see coming out of Washington and that, you know, if

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Speaker 3: their view is the big beautiful bill is actually the

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Speaker 3: big ugly bill, we'll know that pretty quickly.

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Speaker 4: And one of the new areas that's been just seeing

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Speaker 4: amazing growth on global Wall Street in the last I

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Speaker 4: don't know fifteen years or so, has been private credit.

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Speaker 4: How do you think about that when you talk to

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Speaker 4: your clients.

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Speaker 5: Well, I don't know. I like securities.

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Speaker 3: I like to buy securities where there's a liquid market

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Speaker 3: and I can get in and out and I know

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Speaker 3: what these things are worth. I really don't have a

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Speaker 3: problem with private credit, but I wouldn't overdo it there.

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Speaker 3: I get a little suspicious when I see that the

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Speaker 3: private credit industry is starting to become very democratic and

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Speaker 3: create ETFs that allow them basically to unload the back

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Speaker 3: stuff into ETFs.

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Speaker 5: So I think they've had a good record, but I'd

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Speaker 5: be careful.

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Speaker 2: And just one final question here, and I think it's

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Speaker 2: really really important for her. There's Center Force five hundred.

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Speaker 2: How does Edgyard Denny find a select group of stocks

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Speaker 2: within the standard imports five hundred to believe in? Is

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Speaker 2: your method like free cash flow? Is it more economic

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Speaker 2: based almost a Shiller analysis? How do you go about

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Speaker 2: choosing the security for the long run?

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Speaker 3: Well, first and foremost, we don't pick individual stocks on

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Speaker 3: our forte so we basically tend to provide an opinion

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Speaker 3: whether we think the stock market's going to continue to

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Speaker 3: go up and which sectors within that are likely to

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Speaker 3: per form. So I think the short answer is yes,

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Speaker 3: based on the economic outlook. I started out on Wall

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Speaker 3: Street as the chief economist of E. F. Hutton, and

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Speaker 3: then in a few years later I became also the

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Speaker 3: strategist at CJ. Lawrence, So sort of combining the two

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Speaker 3: disciplines that guide my work on sectors and industries. You know,

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Speaker 3: we've liked information technology, we've liked as semiiconductors, and they've

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Speaker 3: been one heck of a roller coaster ride, but basically

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Speaker 3: it's been improfitable.

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Speaker 2: What's your SPX call here a year end or even

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Speaker 2: out twelve months.

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Speaker 3: Well, you know, I've been doing a lot of work

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Speaker 3: on that, and i just want everybody to know that

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Speaker 3: the DXY Dollar Index is very misleading index. It's a

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Speaker 3: fixed weight index, it's not a trade weighted dollar, and

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Speaker 3: fifty seven percent of it is the euro, So you

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Speaker 3: might as well just look at the Euro dollar exchange

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Speaker 3: rate when you're looking at DXY. I like the MSCI

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Speaker 3: organization actually puts out a daily trade dollar which is identical,

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Speaker 3: almost identical to what the Fed does. And to me,

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Speaker 3: the dollar remains at an upward trend. To me, the

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Speaker 3: dollars going sideways relative to develop develop the currencies. But

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Speaker 3: in terms of emerging the dollar is very strong. So

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Speaker 3: I'm not in this. You know, you know, end of

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Speaker 3: the world scenario for the dollar.

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Speaker 2: Well, give me the sand first five hundred. Are you

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Speaker 2: out to seven thousand? Still? If you reaffirm that off

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Speaker 2: of all the tariff news.

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Speaker 3: Well, I started out the year at seven thousand, and

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Speaker 3: I think strategists were generally kind of near that kind

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Speaker 3: of level. Maybe I was at the high end and

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Speaker 3: Trump got me. So I did lower it to sixty

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Speaker 3: four hundred in our early March, and then in late

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Speaker 3: March I lowered it to six thousand.

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Speaker 2: We are I going to make some news today. I

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Speaker 2: can you give me seven thousand here you're on a

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Speaker 2: sleepy May morning.

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Speaker 3: Well, I'll give you sixty five hundred, which is what

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Speaker 3: I've raised it to, with the possibility of getting back

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Speaker 3: up to to seven thousand, and I've told people I

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Speaker 3: reserved the right to change my mind as often as

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Speaker 3: the president.

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Speaker 2: Max just rolled over when he heard that. Think we

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Speaker 2: said good morning to Max on the couch. For those

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Speaker 2: of you on Bloomberg, till the dog is come casual

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Speaker 2: here on a May morning. Ed your Denny thank you

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Speaker 2: so much with your Denny Research. Again, we protect the

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Speaker 2: copyright of all of our guests research. Go to your

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Speaker 2: Denny Research. It's a terrific value. Can't say enough about

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Speaker 2: the use of it. Off your cell.

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Speaker 1: Phone, you're listening to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Catch US

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Speaker 1: live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen

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Speaker 1: on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,

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Speaker 1: or watch US live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Joining US now from Europe alder schmediaan of course with

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Speaker 2: Barren bergerg wonderful to have you in our studio. Thank you.

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Speaker 2: Is Brexit dead? Let's just start with that headline.

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Speaker 7: No, Unfortunately, Brexit is not dead. Brexit is there to stay. We, however,

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Speaker 7: are getting a little pain relief now with the UK

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Speaker 7: drawing it a little closer on a few issues to

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Speaker 7: the EU. Again, Brexit has been really bad for the

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Speaker 7: UK economy and now the day it will be slightly

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Speaker 7: slightly mitigated.

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Speaker 2: Do we underestimate growth in the continent and in the

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Speaker 2: United Kingdom? I keep seeing Paul six months later. Oops, yep,

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Speaker 2: and up we go.

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Speaker 7: I mean, all in all, a relative to the circumstances

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Speaker 7: which are globally not all that good to put in,

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Speaker 7: the Europe is indeed holding up. What we continue to

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Speaker 7: overlook occasionally is that especially southern Europe is mostly not

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Speaker 7: all of it, but mostly doing well, reaping the rewards

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Speaker 7: of the harsh reforms after the Euro crisis, and that

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Speaker 7: in the UK already with Rishi Sunak and then Kiel

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Speaker 7: Stamer starting to reset relations with the EU, there is

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Speaker 7: also a bit of a dynamic in the UK.

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Speaker 4: Is the EU at all receptive to I don't know

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Speaker 4: some of the UK's overtures here. If I'm the EU,

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Speaker 4: I'm like, now, you guys already voted well.

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Speaker 7: On the pragmatic level, the EU wants to strike the

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Speaker 7: and it is striking deeds. Of course, this is the EU,

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Speaker 7: the big EU relative to the smaller UK, which is

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Speaker 7: about one six of the size of the EU economy.

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Speaker 7: And as a result, the EU does not allow cherry picking.

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Speaker 7: That is for the UK to simply say, this is

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Speaker 7: the part we love, this is the part we don't

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Speaker 7: like about the EU. We want to have only the cherries.

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Speaker 7: But we do see pragmatic progress and in the age

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Speaker 7: of Putine and also in the age of Trump, we

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Speaker 7: know I have to say there is a clear Russia

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Speaker 7: now for the UK and the EU to work together

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Speaker 7: on the military but also easing some of the economic

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Speaker 7: pains from Brexit for the UK.

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Speaker 4: So we saw the plans coming out of Germany, you know,

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Speaker 4: several months ago about reinvesting in their defense, in their infrastructure.

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Speaker 4: That's fine for Germany. Can the rest of Europe do that?

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Speaker 7: The rest of Europe does not have the physical space

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Speaker 7: for that. But look at a map. Germany is much

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Speaker 7: closer to Russia, to US Ukraine than most of the

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Speaker 7: rest of Europe, as is Poland. As is Poland has

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Speaker 7: a independently order. He raised its defense spending a lot,

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Speaker 7: so have the Baltics. Germany was in a way the

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Speaker 7: big missing country, the country with fiscal space not doing

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Speaker 7: enough yet, and it's now clothing the gap.

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Speaker 4: So is that suggests that the European accountry, like we

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Speaker 4: saw a lot of investors in the first part of

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Speaker 4: this year move money out of the US into Europe

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Speaker 4: in stocks and bonds and currencies. Is that something you

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Speaker 4: think is credible and is longer lasting?

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Speaker 7: Do you think, well, there was a bit of europhoia, yeah,

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Speaker 7: late February, early March, and that has passed. But that

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Speaker 7: was just a little overdone. The underlying another of this

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Speaker 7: is correct with Germany getting its act sort of together,

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Speaker 7: not never fully, but sort of together. With Germany using

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Speaker 7: its fiscal space to improve its growth prospects via infrastructure,

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Speaker 7: and with Germany doing more to defend itself and basically

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Speaker 7: also the rest of Europe against Putine. Europe is a

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Speaker 7: more attractive place. And then you have the US problems.

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Speaker 7: You have Trump that, you have tariffs, you have the

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Speaker 7: distrust in US institutions, and as a result, the US

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Speaker 7: looks less and Europe looks a bit more attract I don't.

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Speaker 2: Care about the economics. Do you see a boom year

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Speaker 2: for tourism in Europe?

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Speaker 7: There's so much a word, but yes, this is one

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Speaker 7: of part of the European economy which looks set to

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Speaker 7: grow quite nice. It's like a big part, right, It's

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Speaker 7: a significant part for Southern Europe especially, And indeed tourism

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Speaker 7: looks good. Industry, of course, and a few services are

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Speaker 7: still under the cloud of the Trump trade wars, but

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Speaker 7: tourism is good. Welcome to Europe, I tell you it's

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Speaker 7: a great place, as of course, I really.

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Speaker 2: And I looked at the obligatory flight I called fifty

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Speaker 2: seven fifty six, which is United out of Newark, just

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Speaker 2: happens to be the flight I look at, and they're

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Speaker 2: giving it away, pat are they ready? Three thousand and

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Speaker 2: four dollars Holger Schmeeting Class.

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Speaker 4: And you're going, yeah, you're not.

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Speaker 2: We're not the It's like new low I mean, but I.

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Speaker 4: Mean, Holger, We've got the Euro at one spot one

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Speaker 4: two here. We're not a parody for the Euro. How

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Speaker 4: high I mean? Is that reflective of the expectations for

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Speaker 4: Europe in general?

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Speaker 7: The Euro is still a bit undervalued if I compare

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Speaker 7: it under If I compare what I say here in

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Speaker 7: New York for my hotel and for my t relative

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Speaker 7: to what I will pay in a major European capital,

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Speaker 7: and if I compare many other prices, the euro is

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Speaker 7: still modestly undervalued. We will likely go towards one twenty

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Speaker 7: next year problem, and then we'll have to see if

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Speaker 7: the US gets his fiscal housing order or not. If

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Speaker 7: the US does not, five years from now, we might

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Speaker 7: be at one fifty.

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Speaker 2: A million years ago, the trade minister of France, her

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Speaker 2: name was Le Guard, called me up and said you

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Speaker 2: got to go to some meeting in New York and

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Speaker 2: it was an innovation in technology. They were setting up

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Speaker 2: a satellite out of CDG and in Paris. Okay, every

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Speaker 2: article is Europe's missed the boat in technology, Halger, How

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Speaker 2: do the leaders of europe initial initiate catching up in technology.

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Speaker 7: We will catch up in using the new technologies we've

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Speaker 7: always been good at that. The Internet wasn't quite invented

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Speaker 7: in Europe, but the Internet of Things, yeah, this is

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Speaker 7: where Europe is very strong. The same will likely happen

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Speaker 7: with artificial intelligence. Unfortunately, partly because we don't have the

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Speaker 7: capital market and the institution to scale up the many

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Speaker 7: startups we have as rapidly as it happens in the US,

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Speaker 7: we will not have the really, really big, immediate pioneer

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Speaker 7: companies on artificial intelligence. But when it comes to using

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Speaker 7: our highly qualified workforce YEAP to turn artificial intelligence into

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Speaker 7: something that's good for all of us, then European companies

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Speaker 7: will be there.

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Speaker 2: This has been wonderful, holdersating, Thank you so much for Fairenberg.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

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Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

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Speaker 1: say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Angela Stent was my book of the Year. I made

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Speaker 2: my book of the Year a couple of years ago

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Speaker 2: on a February, I think Thursday. Her book is Putin's World.

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Speaker 2: It is the single one biography on the makeup of

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Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin. We're honored that Angela Stent could join us

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Speaker 2: this morning. Angela, Chapter three of your book, Ambivalent Europeans.

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Speaker 2: Is Vladimir Putin an ambivalent European?

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Speaker 8: I think Vladimir Putin is by now a convinced Eurasianist,

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Speaker 8: even though he speaks Germany. He lived in East Germany

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Speaker 8: for five years. I think if you listen to what

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Speaker 8: the Russian talk shows are saying, and what even Putin

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Speaker 8: himself is saying, they're highly critical of the Europeans because

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Speaker 8: they are now in a situation where the Trump administration

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Speaker 8: has been able to accomplish what neither the Soviet Union

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Speaker 8: or post Soviet Russia was able to do, and that's

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Speaker 8: to split work from the US.

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Speaker 2: Is President Trump helping or is he in the way

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Speaker 2: of a constructive outcome?

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Speaker 8: So I don't think he's helping at the moment, because

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Speaker 8: you know, having gotten the Ukrainians and the Europeans to say, yes,

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Speaker 8: we have to have a thirty day interim ceasefire before

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Speaker 8: we can really negotiate. Pudin has refused to do this.

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Speaker 8: Apparently in the phone call yesterday they didn't even discuss

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Speaker 8: a ceasefire in two and a half hours. So that's

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Speaker 8: really not helping get us anywhere nearer to stopping the

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Speaker 8: killing and talking constructively about what comes afterwards.

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Speaker 4: In reality, Angela, I think just by looking at history

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Speaker 4: of the last one hundred years, Russia is not going anywhere.

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Speaker 4: They can keep at this for as long as anybody

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Speaker 4: ken is there any leverage anybody has over Russia.

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Speaker 8: So you know, there is a big package of sanctions

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Speaker 8: that's been prepared by bipartisan by the US Congress, Republicans

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Speaker 8: and Democrats. The Treasury Department has a sanctions packet ready

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Speaker 8: to go. Scott bestn't put it on President Trump's desk,

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Speaker 8: But nothing's happening. They're not imposing any sanctions, and that's

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Speaker 8: what Putin really wanted to avoid. And the other thing

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Speaker 8: that could be done would be to give Ukraine more

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Speaker 8: arms to help it push back more because nobody thinks

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Speaker 8: there's going to be another sup supplemental coming forward. So

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Speaker 8: the only other leverage there is, of course oil prices

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Speaker 8: and sixty dollars or above oil prices is what keeps

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Speaker 8: the Russian economy going in the budget doing well. If

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Speaker 8: oil prices remain low, certainly in the forties or even

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Speaker 8: the early fifties by next year, that will have a

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Speaker 8: fairly serious impact in Russia.

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Speaker 4: Aside from President Trump, is there anyone in Congress who

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Speaker 4: feels like something needs to be done? Or is this

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Speaker 4: squarely on the President's desk at the moment?

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Speaker 8: I mean, Senator Graham has been one of the supporters

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Speaker 8: of the sanctions bill. There are a number of both

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Speaker 8: Republican and Democratic Congress people who think that we should

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Speaker 8: be imposing more sanctions. But every time there's talk of it,

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Speaker 8: it doesn't happen.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I got as an amount of time, but

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Speaker 2: I've got there's so many important questions. Let me go

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Speaker 2: to the Kremlin. How alone is Vladimir Putin? Is he's

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Speaker 2: calling every shot? I guess we assume that from your

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Speaker 2: wonderful book. But is there an after Putin? Is there

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Speaker 2: a process in Russia with Putin or after Putin?

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Speaker 8: So we have no idea about that, but it doesn't

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Speaker 8: look as if there is. Because every time you have

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Speaker 8: an up and coming younger person who maybe be a

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Speaker 8: successor they're not. So what Putin has the backing of Jusionping.

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Speaker 8: That's probably the single most important thing.

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Speaker 2: Very quickly here, Professor stentt just as simple as I

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Speaker 2: can do, you believe in the domino theory here.

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Speaker 8: The domino theory that.

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Speaker 2: After Ukraine he looks at the Bultic States, after Ukraine

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Speaker 2: he looks at fourteen feet into Finland. I mean, is

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Speaker 2: they're a domino theory here. I do believe in it.

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Speaker 8: I don't think it would happen immediately, but if Putin

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Speaker 8: wins in Ukraine, then Ukraine is in the last country

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Speaker 8: that Russia's going to attack.

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00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 2: Angels stent thank you so much. I'll tell you, folks,

439
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:54,120
Speaker 2: it's a two book tandem on Russia. Stephanie Baker's wonderful book.

440
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 2: It's been hugely successful for miss Baker of Bloomberg in London,

441
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 2: punishing Putin In. The foundation before that is Angelus Stence

442
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 2: Putin's World, Russia against the West. I can't say enough

443
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:12,679
Speaker 2: about the book as a one volume read, mesmerizing on

444
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 2: the youth and the upbringing of Vladimir.

445
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

446
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

447
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:31,959
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch US

448
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:35,880
Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

449
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 2: Daniel Tannembaum is a global traveler with Oliver Wyman and

450
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 2: joins us here. He is world expert on sanctions and

451
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 2: so much more. Does a disarray in the domestic issues

452
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:55,120
Speaker 2: of America does that diminish our execution of foreign policy?

453
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 2: Den I think it does.

454
00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 6: I talk to folks in the European Commission and the

455
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 6: British government. Often they are emotionally resigned to having the

456
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 6: deal and constrain issues like Russia without US involvement. In February,

457
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:13,119
Speaker 6: they were reluctant to believe it. I think everyone realizes

458
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 6: there's enough issues in the US going on that dealing

459
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 6: with Russia offensively is not a high priority. So I

460
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:24,680
Speaker 6: do think some of these domestic issues are having an impact,

461
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 6: But in a sense he is a unifier, but in

462
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,479
Speaker 6: not ways that benefit America. You're seeing trade deals get

463
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:35,959
Speaker 6: struck that don't involve the US, like Mercosre in the EU,

464
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 6: so it is creating an impact that may not be

465
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 6: as beneficial to the US.

466
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:42,639
Speaker 2: In the end, Dan, what do.

467
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 4: You make of the phone call President Trump and President

468
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:51,120
Speaker 4: Putin had yesterday regarding Ukraine. There's some different reporting about

469
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,680
Speaker 4: what actually was achieved. What's your read of that.

470
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 6: I think we kicked the can again. It doesn't sound

471
00:27:56,680 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 6: like any concessions were offered on the part of Russia.

472
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 6: You know, the big announcement that the president made that

473
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 6: President Trump made after the call was that there will

474
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 6: be more talks. Well, what was last week in Istanbul?

475
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 6: When they were already talks. I mean, if the whole

476
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 6: point is trying to force Russia to reverse course, talks

477
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 6: aren't going to do it. We saw today the UK

478
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,880
Speaker 6: and EU have announced additional sanctions that are significant, doing

479
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 6: it again without the US.

480
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 2: The US has.

481
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 6: Yet to really at least publicly impose sanctions on Russia

482
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 6: since this administration has taken office. Again.

483
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 2: Why, I mean, I understand Donald Trump and I don't

484
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 2: need to get into the Putin Trump thing. I think

485
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 2: we're all hit over the head by that constantly. Okay, war,

486
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 2: they invaded a country. Why is Europe? Why are the

487
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 2: US struggling with instituting sanctions on a country that's a

488
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 2: borderline frontier economy?

489
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 6: I think we should differentiate. It's not the country. I

490
00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 6: think it's this administration. Congress has sanctions that are ready

491
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 6: to roll. There's actually a package that's been on the

492
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 6: President's desk for three weeks to impose additional sanctions on Russia.

493
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 6: He will sign that will apply additional pressure. How much

494
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 6: they'll hinder is a question the why. I mean, the

495
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 6: argument that the president is making is that additional sanctions

496
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 6: are unhelpful to the negotiations with Russia. And so that

497
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 6: is the argument. Anytime President Putin looks as if he

498
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 6: anytime President Putin looks as if he, you know, is

499
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 6: playing ball, it pushes off any sort of need for pressure,

500
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 6: and the president seems to believe that argument.

501
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 4: Is there any leverage that the US or the Europeans

502
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 4: really have against Putin? Kid just feels like if you

503
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 4: just look back at history over the last one hundred years,

504
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 4: these Russians can have some staying power.

505
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 6: They can, but you can lower the price of the

506
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 6: oil price cap, which has been at sixty dollars for

507
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 6: the last few years. Oil's trading at what's sixty five

508
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 6: a barrel, so you can begin to reduce the revenue

509
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 6: that Russia is generating from oil. You can go after

510
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 6: more third country actors, but we have yet to really

511
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:09,720
Speaker 6: see the US do anything publicly.

512
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 2: I mean I don't have the romantic life of Dan Tanabon.

513
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, the Oliver. He doesn't have the

514
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 2: Oliver and Women Gulf Stream because Hugh von Steinas has

515
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 2: it most of the time. I'm more interested in Dan Tannabon.

516
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

517
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

518
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

519
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just

520
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

521
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 2: Right now, newspapers. We look at the newspapers, Lisa Matteo

522
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:46,440
Speaker 2: and her team of interns looking at twenty thirty rags

523
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 2: to see what to do today. What do you got, Lisa?

524
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 9: Okay, I'm starting with the most glamorous sporting event in

525
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 9: the world. Low talking about the US. Oh, you know

526
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 9: the tennis tournament.

527
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 4: I know is the day to go see see.

528
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 9: Okay, So it generates one hundreds of million dollar every year, right,

529
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 9: it's getting this eight hundred million dollars. Makeover scheduled to

530
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 9: be completed in time by twenty twenty seven. For that

531
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 9: US open construction's already started. So what is actually happening? Okay,

532
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 9: so it's including this overhaul of Arthur Arthur sh Stadium,

533
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 9: so as Paul knows, sometimes gets a little crowded. You know,

534
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 9: it's trying to send as Tito's and soda and he

535
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 9: needs more elbow room. Okay, so they're adding a little

536
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 9: bit more space, putting a few more seating in there.

537
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 9: They're also getting new building just for the players. So

538
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 9: the players get this new building, state of the art

539
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 9: training facility, luxury accommodations, cafes just for them. So this

540
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 9: has been going on. But the USA, how are they

541
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 9: going to pay for this? That's the question that everyone

542
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 9: is asking. Reserve funds, debt and it's not going to

543
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 9: require any more land in the park because they're they're

544
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 9: leasing that out.

545
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 2: To me, it was when I went, it was way

546
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:52,000
Speaker 2: too packed. I mean, it was just no fun. The merch,

547
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 2: the merch going out of the store.

548
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 5: Pall was unreal.

549
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 4: It's it's phenomenal, but I mean there's vodka was something

550
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 4: that money did get the great Goose Honey Deuce cocktail.

551
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 2: That's what it was. That's where you go.

552
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 4: Yep, And that'll save you back twenty or twenty five bucks.

553
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 4: But it's it's worth it. But I go the first

554
00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 4: Tuesday because then you get ze everybody and everybody's practicing.

555
00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 4: Nobody's knocked out of the tournam. You can go to

556
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 4: a practice court and see, like you know, a top

557
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 4: ten person playing in a practice round. It's about it. Yeah,

558
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 4: it's the thing park. Yeah, but it's fine.

559
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 2: It's no.

560
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 4: You take the Long Island Railroad drops your right there.

561
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 4: It is the take the l people are right to

562
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 4: the stadium in two grade and you go to the

563
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 4: day on the first Tuesday.

564
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:34,959
Speaker 9: I have to go.

565
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 8: It is a experience.

566
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 2: It is experience.

567
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 9: Literally, is there like live reporting you've never been to the.

568
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 4: Actually have fun? Yeah, okay, let's.

569
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 9: Go to Thursday night football.

570
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 7: Okay.

571
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 9: So in the past it's been like this place like this,

572
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:50,719
Speaker 9: dumping around right for games that are expected to not

573
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 9: view very well. But things have started changed under Amazon.

574
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 9: Bloomberg actually spoke with the head of sports and Advertising

575
00:32:57,520 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 9: at Amazon Prime Video and they said view a Thursday

576
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 9: night football increase forty percent. Since Prime Video's first year

577
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 9: of streaming the show, so that more people are starting

578
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 9: to watch. The average viewer is also seven years younger

579
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 9: than other channels, so that's something.

580
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 7: That advertisers like.

581
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:17,960
Speaker 9: But they also scored their strongest lineup, so they have

582
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 9: in week two the opening twenty four five season matchup

583
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 9: between Green Bay Packers Washington Commanders. They also have two

584
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 9: appearances from the Philadelphia Eagles. They have ten divisional matchups

585
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 9: on top of it, so there.

586
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 4: People are getting more comfortable now finding sports on streaming

587
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 4: and the answers.

588
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:35,120
Speaker 2: Football is leading the.

589
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 4: Way absolutely, I mean just say it always does, it

590
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 4: always does.

591
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:43,160
Speaker 2: I mean, you know why is Mets red socks. I

592
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 2: still don't understand the regional baseball thing, you know is.

593
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 4: A regional sport like hockey. Hockey is regional?

594
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 2: Okay, just football, just do it like Cony.

595
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 4: Time for one more here I do okay, quickly?

596
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 9: Okay, So the National Dazoo's new handas right. We've been

597
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:04,440
Speaker 9: hearing about them, PANDAM, pandicam. They're actually warming up to

598
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 9: one another, so who knows. There could be a baby

599
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:11,959
Speaker 9: along the way. But it's going to be timed down. Yes, yes,

600
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 9: it's going to be much more time down the road.

601
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 9: But they're starting to show some signs of interest to

602
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 9: one another. So the zoo staffers are saying, you know what,

603
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 9: this is a good sign. They're bleeding. Bleeding is like that,

604
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 9: I guess a mating sound. I don't know. It's kind

605
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,279
Speaker 9: of like a sheep's bad but a higher pitch. I'm

606
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 9: not going to do it for you, but they're starting

607
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:30,759
Speaker 9: to show that.

608
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:36,319
Speaker 4: But reproductive possibility is how the Washington post Reproductive possibility

609
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 4: only last brief hours.

610
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 9: They're very like they like to be alone pandas. I

611
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,360
Speaker 9: didn't realize that, so they're very like with the panda.

612
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:49,399
Speaker 9: But the males mature more slowly than females. Shocker, five

613
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 9: years old is when they start this this connection, and

614
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 9: they're a little bit younger than that. So we have

615
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:55,399
Speaker 9: some time, but there's a positive sign.

616
00:34:55,800 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 2: I'm trying to put a ball. Thank you so much

617
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 2: much for our sex education today.

618
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:07,799
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

619
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:11,680
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each

620
00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:15,560
Speaker 1: weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,

621
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune in, and the Bloomberg Business app.

622
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

623
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:25,240
Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg Terminal