1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,720 Speaker 1: This is Football four oh one K broadcasting on Dallas 2 00:00:04,720 --> 00:00:08,160 Speaker 1: Cowboys dot Com and the official Dallas Cowboys Half. Now 3 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:12,959 Speaker 1: your hosts bow Repka and r J. Choppy, Welcome to 4 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: episode five of the Football four oh one K. I 5 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,079 Speaker 1: am r J Choppy from one oh five through the fan. 6 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: He is bow Repka of the Football Glory Hole, and 7 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:26,640 Speaker 1: we have a great show in store for you today. 8 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 1: We got a little bit of a look ahead. We 9 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 1: got some best beds. We're gonna look at some deceiving 10 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:37,199 Speaker 1: records in various divisions around the National Football League, and 11 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 1: of course the Pizza Bony parlay, which is my favorite 12 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:42,600 Speaker 1: and we I think we won two of these last year, 13 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:45,760 Speaker 1: So we're gonna go and try to get our first 14 00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 1: of the season this week and a little twenty nine 15 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:52,520 Speaker 1: and a half to one three team parlay that we had. 16 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: But let's start. We're looking back at Week three of 17 00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:58,400 Speaker 1: the National Football League and maybe a little bit of 18 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:03,960 Speaker 1: college as well. First off, the Cowboys Eagles bo I 19 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:06,559 Speaker 1: don't know. I didn't understand the line when it came out. 20 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 1: I didn't understand the line when it was settled at 21 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:12,800 Speaker 1: the kickoff. It just didn't make a whole lot of 22 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: sense to me. The Cowboys are way better than Philadelphia, 23 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 1: and I think everybody should have known that. And that 24 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 1: was a that was probably the best game they put 25 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 1: together quite some time. Yeah, man, I mean you were 26 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 1: all over it, right, So this line closed at Cow's 27 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 1: minus three, and rju, you nailed it, you did. You 28 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 1: took it at the four, right. You didn't need the 29 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 1: extra point, which generally speaking, you know, if you want 30 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:41,960 Speaker 1: to bet a favorite, you kind of do wait till 31 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:44,759 Speaker 1: towards the end of better because the poet money generally 32 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 1: will come in on depending on who the favorite is. Now, 33 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 1: the Cowboy game could have win either way, it didn't matter. 34 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 1: You didn't need the point at the point. We always 35 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 1: say points matter in the NFL, generally do not in 36 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 1: that game. But I didn't understand it either. Philly was 37 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 1: getting overvalued, right. They were one and one coming to end. 38 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 1: They were one and one ats and the only game 39 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:07,639 Speaker 1: they won and covered straight up was against Atlanta. Well, 40 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:11,079 Speaker 1: obviously Atlanta they are who they are who we thought 41 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:13,360 Speaker 1: they were coming in a season like they stink. So 42 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 1: I didn't understand it either. The Cowboys were one in one, 43 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 1: but they were two and oh ats And now they're 44 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 1: three and oz A or three and oh ats and 45 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 1: r J. We always say, good teams win, great teams cover, 46 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:31,239 Speaker 1: and we proved last year, or just didn't prove. We 47 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 1: didn't prove, but we were reminded everybody. If you don't 48 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 1: cover spreads, you don't win super Bowls. So if you 49 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:39,639 Speaker 1: want to be legitimate Super Bowl contender, and people think, oh, 50 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 1: this is just for sports gaming or whatever, you know, it, 51 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:44,639 Speaker 1: it correlates because and the reason why it correlates is 52 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: because if you don't beat Vegas's expectations more often than not, 53 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:53,799 Speaker 1: then you're probably you're more vulnerable in any one game setting. 54 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:57,640 Speaker 1: If you're exceeding expectations, you're less vulnerable in one game setting, 55 00:02:57,639 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: which is always what the NFL is regular seas an 56 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:02,839 Speaker 1: oor play iff. It's a one game setting, and that's 57 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:06,920 Speaker 1: why things move and shift so rapidly. But you know, 58 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 1: if you look at the quarterback situation, I've heard you 59 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,640 Speaker 1: and Sean talk all week about it. I mean, we 60 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 1: told you we didn't feel like Hurts was, you know, 61 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 1: a valid NFL quarterback. He might still be, but I 62 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:20,119 Speaker 1: think most people are of that opinion. Now we told 63 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 1: you he was ninth, right, after two weeks since APA 64 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:25,399 Speaker 1: plus c po. Now he's twenty seconds. So we said 65 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:27,680 Speaker 1: he wouldn't finish top ten. You're seeing a kind of 66 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 1: move to where he is right, probably gonna settle around 67 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:33,680 Speaker 1: and Dak, on the other hand, is going the other 68 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 1: way to Dak is all the way up to number 69 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 1: eleven now EPA plus CPO. And I've been hearing you 70 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 1: guys talk about his QBR is not where it normally yet, 71 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 1: you know, for football focus isn't great him is you 72 00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:46,320 Speaker 1: know where they kind of normally do. I get all that, 73 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 1: but the efficiency numbers are there. This is, I agree 74 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: one hundred percent of you guys is the best we've 75 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 1: seen Dak play from an overall standpoint. And I think personally, 76 00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:00,320 Speaker 1: and I can't remember who said it to day, it 77 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 1: was a former quarterback or something. I think it was 78 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 1: far Maybe the injury, you know, has limited his mobility. Now, 79 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 1: whether that's a real physical thing or it's in his mind, right, 80 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 1: he hasn't gotten quite over the hurdle. Either way. He 81 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:16,920 Speaker 1: is making quicker decisions, he is getting the red of 82 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 1: the ball at a rapid pace. He's being incredibly efficient 83 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 1: and with those weapons, man, they're going to cover a 84 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 1: lot of spread, specially if they keep getting undervalued like 85 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: this or teams they played get overvalued. The Cowboys could 86 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 1: be a huge moneymaker this year. They could. And that's 87 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 1: that's interesting that you brought that up because we talked 88 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:36,599 Speaker 1: about this this week, and I personally think that this 89 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 1: Monday night game, it was a nice run, but I 90 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 1: think it ended the Cowboys being undervalued on the year. 91 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:46,479 Speaker 1: Until I look at the line this week and it's 92 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 1: four and a half. I think it should be more 93 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:50,040 Speaker 1: and four and a half against Carolina. I think Caroline 94 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 1: is getting too much overvalued here. But do you think 95 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:58,359 Speaker 1: the Cowboys are still a tad undervalued in Vegas? I 96 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 1: think that we're at the water level. We'll go over 97 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 1: that game here a little bit, but right now it's 98 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:08,359 Speaker 1: zero point delta per our algorithm, So I think that 99 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 1: they're right now. I mean, the computers gave it the 100 00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 1: edge of the Cowboys last week. You love the Cowboys. 101 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:15,480 Speaker 1: Last week, you and the computers were spot on right. 102 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 1: They were easily the better football team. This is gonna 103 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 1: be one of those watershed games this week for not 104 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 1: only public conjecture, but analytically too, So it's gonna be 105 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,720 Speaker 1: a great game. This is one of those measuring stick games, 106 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 1: if you want to call it that. But we'll get 107 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:30,600 Speaker 1: into it. But it's gonna be a great week. This week, 108 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:32,720 Speaker 1: last week and the Super Contest, we also went four 109 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 1: and one great week for US. Right. Only let down 110 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 1: was the stupid football team from Washington Jobby their defense 111 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 1: twenty nine in Dvoa this year. And we talked about 112 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:47,919 Speaker 1: all the time how unpredictable defenses are. But I don't like, 113 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 1: I have a problem with things being unpredictable. I don't 114 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:53,080 Speaker 1: like to accept that. And I started thinking about it 115 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 1: and digging in a little bit more. And I don't 116 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 1: have the numbers in front of me yet, but I'm 117 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 1: starting a study to try to make that more predictable 118 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:02,720 Speaker 1: then we've seen it in the past. And one thing 119 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 1: I've already found is it's not just the you know, 120 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 1: because you can say strength of schedule whatever you want 121 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:09,919 Speaker 1: to NFL once the cake is baked, But if you 122 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:13,799 Speaker 1: look back at the level competition in certain I guess 123 00:06:13,880 --> 00:06:18,840 Speaker 1: brackets or in certain groupings of who they played, it's 124 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: in other words, if you took what was Washington known 125 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:27,800 Speaker 1: for last year their defensive line, right, yeah, yeah. So 126 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:30,159 Speaker 1: if you look back, just in looking at some of 127 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 1: the ratings some Pro Football Focus, some of that stuff 128 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 1: they also compiled like one of the worst pass protection 129 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 1: go against the entire NFL. So maybe if we start 130 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:44,600 Speaker 1: to pay attention to disparities like that, it's hard to do. 131 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:47,600 Speaker 1: End season. Well, like I said, once the cake is baked, 132 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 1: you looked and kind of examine the layers, maybe we 133 00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:52,440 Speaker 1: start to look at some of that's like, yeah, they did, 134 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:55,600 Speaker 1: but here's what they face. So you were we're going 135 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: to figure out how to see this regression coming. I 136 00:06:57,600 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: promise you that, and we're not going to blindsided like 137 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:04,040 Speaker 1: this again. Yeah, by a team going from second to 138 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:05,600 Speaker 1: twenty nine. This is kind of crazy. Now. I think 139 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:08,279 Speaker 1: they'll settle better, they'll figure it out. Rivera, he's good 140 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 1: enough coach, he'll he'll get him on track. But this 141 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 1: has been a massive, massive downgrade. You have the Washington 142 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 1: football team. I mean, defensive regression is a real thing. 143 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 1: We see with Tampa, we're seeing it with Washington and 144 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 1: then it regress. On the positive side, we're seeing that 145 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 1: with the Cowboys this year. So I think it's, uh, 146 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 1: you know, it's an interesting spot to be and how 147 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 1: does this How is this first start move the odds 148 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 1: in the division in the NFC East. So we've seen 149 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 1: a pretty tremendous move in the odds and some spots 150 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 1: and some spots not so much. Now we've been through 151 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 1: three weeks, so after this week, Choppy, we will bring 152 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 1: out will unveil next week our first round of Pythagorum 153 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 1: theorem rankings, which you and I made pretty good coin 154 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 1: last year betting some division futures using this method. And 155 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 1: we'll get into how that works next week. But right now, 156 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,680 Speaker 1: Dallas has always been the favorite, right However, the odds 157 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 1: closed the preseason to Dallas plus one thirty, which means 158 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 1: Vegas was saying at that time they had about a 159 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 1: forty three percent chance of winning the division. But now 160 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:13,720 Speaker 1: Dallas is minus one eighty five, which Vegas that translates 161 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 1: that they're saying it's sixty five percent chance now of 162 00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 1: the Cowboys winning the division through three games. So obviously, 163 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 1: for betting purposes, you've lost all value. If you did 164 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 1: not bet on your Cowboys preseason, you've lost all the value. 165 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 1: But that's a hell of a turnaround in three weeks, 166 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 1: And in fact, I actually looked it up in season. 167 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:33,320 Speaker 1: They were plus one thirty five after they lost Week 168 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 1: one to Tampa Bay. That was the high. That was 169 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:37,720 Speaker 1: the apex where you could have got that value at 170 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:40,440 Speaker 1: plus one thirty five on the Cowboys. Like I said, 171 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 1: that value is gone now. So if you look at 172 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 1: the rest of the teams, watched the football team or 173 00:08:45,400 --> 00:08:48,079 Speaker 1: in second place Divisional odds race, but they closed it 174 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 1: two thirty preseason, which was a thirty percent chance to 175 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:54,240 Speaker 1: win the division. Now they're plus four fifty, which Vegas 176 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:57,199 Speaker 1: is saying they've got an eighteen percent chance of winning 177 00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:00,200 Speaker 1: this division. Now, on full disclosure, I did bet washing 178 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 1: the football team in March at plus four to fifty 179 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 1: when this odds came out, just because all the uncertainty 180 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 1: surrounding deck and everything that was to and again I 181 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:10,319 Speaker 1: sipped the kool aid on that defense. Right, I'm just 182 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 1: as guilty as anybody else. But I'll tell you this, 183 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 1: if Washington loses this week to Atlanta, I might as 184 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 1: well to shred that ticket right now because I got 185 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 1: no shot at it. The Eagles are currently in third 186 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 1: at plus five hundred, which actually is a slide improvement 187 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:25,840 Speaker 1: from plus five fifty preseason, but it's still seventeen percent 188 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 1: chance to win, and the Giants preseason plus four fifty. 189 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:33,280 Speaker 1: They're at plus thirteen hundred. Now that's seven percent shoppy. 190 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 1: So and although I don't think you'll get any better 191 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:39,320 Speaker 1: value than betting the Giants on the Giants at this point, 192 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna line to line up to throw my 193 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:43,680 Speaker 1: money away at a seven percent chance. I don't feel 194 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,319 Speaker 1: like playing a lottery right this second. But I don't 195 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 1: think they will get any worse. So if you're gonna 196 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 1: bet the Giant, you're gonna back them, you might as 197 00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 1: well buy your ticket now, because if they win a game, 198 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:55,840 Speaker 1: you're not gonna get plus thirteen hundred. Again, That's that's 199 00:09:55,840 --> 00:10:00,440 Speaker 1: all I say on that. So overall choppy, The Vegas 200 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:02,520 Speaker 1: is telling you Dallas is firmly in control of this division, 201 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 1: sixty five percent chance to win, and you know the 202 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 1: Pablo I said, well, of course, look at their records. 203 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 1: I mean, they're two and one. The rest of these 204 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:12,559 Speaker 1: teams stink, But that's not right the way Vegas operates. 205 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 1: In fact, if you look at the AFC West, the 206 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 1: Chiefs are still the odds on favorite, and they're one 207 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 1: and two and their minus one twenty five, so they're 208 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 1: basically the same sixty percent chances that Cowley was win 209 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 1: their division. That's what Vegas telling you. For Chiefs to win, 210 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 1: there's the Bronchos are three and oz. They're plus three fifty, 211 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 1: so they're just slightly better than the Washington football team. 212 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:37,320 Speaker 1: The Charger two and one and just beat the Chiefs. 213 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:39,800 Speaker 1: They're plus five hundred, and the Raiders are three and 214 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 1: oz and they're plus five twenty five. So what Vegas 215 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:45,840 Speaker 1: is telling you is it is time to start selling 216 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:49,800 Speaker 1: your Raiders, Chargers and Broncos stock. If you got it 217 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 1: all piled up, you better sell it now, baby, because 218 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:55,080 Speaker 1: it's going down in value. Yeah. I think I saw 219 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:57,280 Speaker 1: like you could get really good value just to pick 220 00:10:57,320 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 1: the Raiders to finish last and then which I mean 221 00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 1: the way cars playing, that would be surprised to finish last. 222 00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 1: But the division is very, very difficult. They started six 223 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 1: and two and six and three I think the last 224 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:13,000 Speaker 1: couple of years, and they just melt down. So you 225 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 1: know that that is their m O. Yeah it is. 226 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 1: Let's look at the quarterback loss of value? How has 227 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:21,080 Speaker 1: that changed it all this year? So looking at that, 228 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:22,599 Speaker 1: we had a couple of games last week and the 229 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 1: super contest that we hit. We told you about it 230 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:27,800 Speaker 1: right here on the podcast. The Bears were minus seven. 231 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:30,760 Speaker 1: They were minus seven preseason, they were minus seven before 232 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 1: the week started, their minus seven after Andy Dalton was 233 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:35,920 Speaker 1: announced out and Fields announced in, And we told you 234 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:40,439 Speaker 1: that's crazy because there's no way, there's no way mathematically 235 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 1: could support Andy Dalton and just the Fields being the 236 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:45,440 Speaker 1: same level against the spread of worth the same amount 237 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:47,520 Speaker 1: of points. We said it should have moved three three 238 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 1: and a half points, and we were right on that. 239 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,200 Speaker 1: And you know, Chicago went out there and got crushed 240 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:55,080 Speaker 1: on the road, which was not that hard to predict 241 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 1: against the good football team in Cleveland and rookie making 242 00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:00,160 Speaker 1: his first start, and you know, Fields had a four 243 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:02,400 Speaker 1: QBR in his first action the week before. He had 244 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 1: a six QBR last week. So I guess you could 245 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 1: say it's thirty three percent improvement if you wanted to 246 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:10,400 Speaker 1: be positive about it, but it's still six overall. So 247 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 1: that was one spot where the market did not move. However, 248 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:16,640 Speaker 1: Vegas did take in a lot of public money on that, 249 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 1: so I think that that was what their goal was 250 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 1: the whole time, and they didn't mind getting kind of 251 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 1: knocked in the head a little bit by the sharp 252 00:12:22,559 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: side if they could take the public money on the 253 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:27,439 Speaker 1: other side, because they're always going to outweigh the money 254 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 1: that they'll limit us to. And then on the other game, 255 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 1: was Miami had Miami in Las Vegas catching four points. 256 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:36,959 Speaker 1: I think it was the super concept. I think it 257 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 1: closed at three and a half. That line did move that, 258 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 1: I think it was three and a half points, But 259 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:45,160 Speaker 1: we told you the movement on that was baked in 260 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 1: that them thinking too was not going to get announced in, 261 00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 1: and of course he was announced out and it didn't 262 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 1: move after that. So everybody's like, oh, it's no movement 263 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:55,439 Speaker 1: from two of a verseet like, no, it was. It 264 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 1: was three three and a half points, but they just 265 00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 1: baked it into the cake. We just bet that Miami 266 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 1: on that because we thought it was a little bit 267 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 1: too much too. It was not quite that valuable to 268 00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:06,800 Speaker 1: the spread. And you know, Brissette didn't play great, right, 269 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:09,719 Speaker 1: but two is not great. So again it pretty much 270 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 1: did equal out that we were right on that. Now 271 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 1: we got a little fortunate to uh cover that in 272 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:17,360 Speaker 1: the end, but you know they did. They had a 273 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 1: fourteen nothing lead on the road, so we fought. Thought 274 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 1: Vegas would come out flat after being two, and oh 275 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:26,320 Speaker 1: did come out very flat. It's exact starch you need 276 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:29,320 Speaker 1: when you've got a dog. And that's that's how the 277 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 1: game went. And thankfully for that fourteen nothing start. That's 278 00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:34,160 Speaker 1: the reason why we cover that game. All right, that's 279 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:38,200 Speaker 1: our look back at week three in the National Football League. 280 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:39,920 Speaker 1: We got a lot we can uh, you know, we 281 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:42,679 Speaker 1: can look ahead. We got the pizza money parlay, we 282 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 1: got our best bets. That's all coming up. I'm r J. Choppy, 283 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 1: he is bo Repka. This is the football four oh 284 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 1: one K. Welcome back to the football four oh one K. 285 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:59,080 Speaker 1: I'm r J Choppy. He is bo Repka. Let's quickly 286 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 1: fire through these and look ahead at the games going 287 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 1: on this week. Bow Let's tart off with Washington the 288 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 1: football team against the Falcons of Atlanta, the fighting Matt 289 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 1: Ryan's who you know there? They stink, Yeah, they stink. 290 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 1: Washington minus one at Atlanta. Now, Washington, I just said 291 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 1: burned this last week, right, But you can't let that 292 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 1: affect your bigger picture. And the bigger picture is the 293 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:26,880 Speaker 1: line on this game was Atlanta minus three win fits 294 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:31,240 Speaker 1: Joe or Fitzpatrick was supposed to be the quarterback. Now 295 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 1: it's Washington minus one with a skunky German beer throw 296 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 1: on the ball around. And we just told you the 297 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:39,280 Speaker 1: QB value can be tricky. But Vegas has seen Heinekey 298 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 1: enough to get a handle on what he is and 299 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 1: the spread, and so has the marketing. While he is 300 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 1: blow average EPA plus c POE, he's miles ahead of 301 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 1: Ryan in that stat in this year. And Washington pass 302 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 1: rush has struggled but shoppy. If you look at their 303 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 1: most successful game, which was against the Giants, they had 304 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 1: four sacks. And what did the Giants of the Falcons 305 00:14:57,120 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 1: have a common? They were both bottom three of the 306 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 1: league in offensive the adjusted sack rate. Washington is getting 307 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 1: undervalued here a bit, and that's hard to do where 308 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 1: it's a bad as team as bad as at Lanta, 309 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 1: But it is happening just because of that drumming they 310 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 1: just took up in Buffalo. But Washington is definitely the 311 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 1: lean on this one. All right, Washington here, we got 312 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 1: Chicago Detroit this game. This is the biggest line movement 313 00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:21,720 Speaker 1: of the week in the NFL. Started at six, now 314 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:24,800 Speaker 1: it's down to two and a half the Bears are favored. 315 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 1: Is this a Is this a downgrade for Chicago? It's 316 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 1: just an upgrade for Detroit? What is this? Yeah? This 317 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 1: is the Fields line move that should have happened last week, 318 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 1: which we were thankful it didn't. Right now, the market 319 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 1: is adjusted because now the public has seen two games 320 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 1: for Fields. So now if they left that line out 321 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:44,960 Speaker 1: there again at six, they were gonna get hammered on 322 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 1: both sides, and they knew it, so they had to 323 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 1: move it. It is down to two and a half. 324 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 1: More money is coming down to Detroit. I don't think 325 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 1: that that's enough of a movement, be honestly, to be 326 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 1: honest with And here's why Detroit is sneakily the fourth 327 00:15:57,320 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 1: best adjusted sack rate team on the defense with eight 328 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 1: sacks so far through three games. And you saw Field 329 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 1: struggles with pressure obviously, which which young quarterback doesn't. And 330 00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:10,120 Speaker 1: my biggest thing on this game is if you remember 331 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 1: back when Chicago favorites, when we talked about backing favorites 332 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 1: or backing dogs, you want low variants if you're gonna 333 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:20,360 Speaker 1: better favorite, low variance. And we told you last this 334 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 1: week there is no higher variance in the National Football 335 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 1: League than a rookie quarterback in the NFL, and unless 336 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 1: the rookie is you know, the mccookie monster up in 337 00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:32,640 Speaker 1: New England, because he's the most limited physically of all 338 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 1: the quarterbacks, so he has the least amount of variants. Again, 339 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 1: you've got huge variance. You're having a lay points Detroit's 340 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 1: coming in. I think all the value here is on 341 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:45,120 Speaker 1: the kneecapper still, And you know, I don't chop you. You 342 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 1: You think if Chicago loses this game handily, doesn't, does 343 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 1: Naggie get fired this week? Does he get run this week? 344 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 1: You know, I think it depends. I think it depends 345 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 1: on how the game goes, Like does he start fieldses 346 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:58,320 Speaker 1: he start Dalton? You know it's I don't know that 347 00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:02,119 Speaker 1: I would fire a coach who has made the playoffs 348 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 1: an awful lot with Mitchell Trubisky because the GM wanted 349 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 1: to get rid of the quarterback and you drafted Fields. 350 00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:12,960 Speaker 1: I mean, you gotta give him a little bit of 351 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:15,080 Speaker 1: a chance. I think, I don't know. Maybe they don't 352 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:16,640 Speaker 1: feel that way, but I think you gotta give a chance. 353 00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 1: Are they really what are the expectations were you really expected? Now? 354 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 1: I said, if Fields was great they're in the NFC 355 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:29,000 Speaker 1: Championship game this year. He obviously is not great, well, 356 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:32,480 Speaker 1: not so far, but Vegas's expectation. They were eight and 357 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:34,520 Speaker 1: a half wins, right, and we bet them on the under. 358 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:36,120 Speaker 1: That was one of our best bets in that division. 359 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:41,600 Speaker 1: I mean, the best case scenario of them most Andy 360 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:45,960 Speaker 1: Dalton was Andy Dalton and he spares eight or nine 361 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 1: wins right, and maybe we win our bet, maybe we 362 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 1: lose our bet. This is the best case scenario for 363 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:53,159 Speaker 1: us because it's a rookie quarterback. As long as he's playing, 364 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:56,200 Speaker 1: I feel good about our undercoming. All right, how about 365 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:58,480 Speaker 1: Dever Baltimore. This's the first game Denver is gonna face 366 00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:01,439 Speaker 1: our player where they faced that has to win. There 367 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:03,960 Speaker 1: are opponents are all and nine in the season, So 368 00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 1: how are we looking at this one? Yeah, this lines 369 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 1: move four and a half points, and I don't think 370 00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 1: that's justified. Like you said, Denver has played three teams 371 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 1: that are OO and three, and only that those those 372 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:17,040 Speaker 1: three teams have a combined portant differential minus one oh sevens. 373 00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 1: Not just they played three bad teams. They might have 374 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 1: played the three worst teams in all the football. Baltimore 375 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,439 Speaker 1: has major injuries all over the place, and historically this 376 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 1: is a spot where Lamar has struggled when he's a 377 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 1: short favorite or dog like we told you in the 378 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 1: divisional odds or no so but but like we told 379 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:36,720 Speaker 1: you in the divisional odds, Vegs is telling you it's 380 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:38,480 Speaker 1: time to sell some of your Broncos stock. And on 381 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,400 Speaker 1: the flip side of that, Baltimore, even with all these injuries, 382 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 1: even with you know, a little bit of struggling here 383 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:46,480 Speaker 1: and there, scuffling into Detroit, they're still the favorite to 384 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:48,399 Speaker 1: win that division plus one teen. And that's the division 385 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:51,119 Speaker 1: with Cleveland, who is a good football team. And if 386 00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:53,000 Speaker 1: they're gonna go win that division, they have to go 387 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:55,200 Speaker 1: win this football game. And they know it. Denver is 388 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:57,800 Speaker 1: a tough place to play for sure. But I think 389 00:18:57,840 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 1: the injuries are getting overvalued here in the market play. 390 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:02,359 Speaker 1: I think Baltimore wins this one. I think they win it. 391 00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:05,400 Speaker 1: I think they win this game easier than they won 392 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 1: any game so far. All right, Teddy two gloves look good. 393 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:11,640 Speaker 1: Though he has thrown the ball downfield, he's not slinging it, baby. Yeah, 394 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 1: he has slaying all of him. I love watching him. 395 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 1: Of all the quarterbacks. If you're just going base time. 396 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 1: You've never If you've never seen a football game before, 397 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 1: he's one of the ten best quarterbacks in the league. 398 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 1: After three weeks, he's the number one, number one EPA 399 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,880 Speaker 1: plus CPO eight number one. Yeah, if you've never seen 400 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 1: a game, he is. Uh. New Orleans and the Giants, 401 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:38,119 Speaker 1: the analytic friendly New York Giants apparently who you know 402 00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:42,720 Speaker 1: punked on four from three from the thirty nine. Oh god, 403 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 1: I wish, yeah, I wish that. Who Oh New Mexico 404 00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:52,159 Speaker 1: State used those kind of analytics and they didn't go 405 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 1: for them fourth and thirty six and cost us cover. 406 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 1: That's a different story. That's a different story. But yeah, 407 00:19:57,480 --> 00:19:59,200 Speaker 1: this game is a gross, gross game for us to 408 00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:02,119 Speaker 1: Candycap and New Orleans is no doubt the better football team, 409 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 1: but there aren't any better than they thought than we 410 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 1: thought that they would be. Right, Winston, if this is 411 00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:11,439 Speaker 1: how they're gonna have to win, and that's his ceiling right, 412 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:14,200 Speaker 1: throwing for under two hundred yards. You know, he hasn't 413 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 1: been impressive, but he's also still shown that he can 414 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:21,840 Speaker 1: still go full Winston right and week two have that stinker. Now, 415 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:24,360 Speaker 1: New Orleans is a tired football team. They haven't been 416 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:26,199 Speaker 1: home and I don't know when they haven't played a 417 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,840 Speaker 1: home game yet in a month, you know, of being 418 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:33,080 Speaker 1: on the road, and the Johns are desperate, and believe 419 00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 1: it or not, you know, as much crap as we 420 00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,800 Speaker 1: give Daniel Jones, he's outperformed Winston and the Band's analytics 421 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:40,920 Speaker 1: so far. And we're getting two and a half points 422 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 1: of value from the opening line and one last nugget 423 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,440 Speaker 1: on this when the Johns are nineteen and six ATS 424 00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 1: in the last twenty five road games, including ten and 425 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,480 Speaker 1: one ATS and the last eleven as the road dog. 426 00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:55,160 Speaker 1: It's a weird trend, but I think there is an 427 00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,359 Speaker 1: actual correlation too, And I think it's Daniel Jones and 428 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: the pressure of New York and I think it's once 429 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:02,800 Speaker 1: he gets out of that stadium, right, he's just expecting 430 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:06,400 Speaker 1: to get booed the first bad thing that happens. When 431 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:08,840 Speaker 1: he's on the road and bad things happened to him, 432 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 1: people cheer, so he doesn't have the pressure of getting booed. 433 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:13,959 Speaker 1: And he you know, he can make comebacks. He can 434 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:15,919 Speaker 1: slide in that backdoors a big dog like he is 435 00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:19,399 Speaker 1: here and I fully expect that to happen. Man I 436 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:21,639 Speaker 1: think that's the reason why that trend correlate so well 437 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:24,720 Speaker 1: of him being such a good road dog quarterback, is 438 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:28,720 Speaker 1: because he's not worried about getting booed at his first 439 00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:32,720 Speaker 1: incompletion or you know, his mother being insulted in the stands, 440 00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:35,080 Speaker 1: or whatever else goes on. I don't know, but I 441 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:36,440 Speaker 1: think that's I think it's a mental thing, and I 442 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:40,240 Speaker 1: think that's a real correlation. Yeah. Interesting. And then the 443 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,160 Speaker 1: final game, we'll talking about what's upout the Cowboy game. 444 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:46,359 Speaker 1: Cowboys and the Carolina Panthers with sharp teeth and claws. 445 00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:59,399 Speaker 1: This guy still love that guy. Oh my god, I 446 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,560 Speaker 1: don't get the law I did. The Cowboys should be 447 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:03,440 Speaker 1: favored by more. But you know, you gotta hand it 448 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:09,159 Speaker 1: to Carolina. They have you know, they've they've they've pummeled teams. Yeah, 449 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 1: so this time, this is the first time it's been 450 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:13,399 Speaker 1: a zero delta on the Cowboys in our power rating. 451 00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 1: So no value here to us either way. However, it 452 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:19,640 Speaker 1: is hard for me to see Carolina to be able 453 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:24,720 Speaker 1: to score the ball with Dallas and the only two 454 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:27,119 Speaker 1: teams that have really given them trouble Dallas that is, is 455 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:31,120 Speaker 1: is Tampa Bay and you know the Chargers. They're they 456 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:33,440 Speaker 1: both can score the football. Now, the Chargers didn't score 457 00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:35,960 Speaker 1: the football, but that neither team did because of a 458 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,680 Speaker 1: cavalcade of you know, penalties and turnovers or whatever. Yeah, 459 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:43,200 Speaker 1: but that's where I think the Cowboys only trouble is 460 00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:44,640 Speaker 1: going to be this year is with teams that can 461 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,280 Speaker 1: score the ball. You know, I don't think a team 462 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:50,520 Speaker 1: like Carolina. Now here's why I said earlier would be 463 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 1: such a measuring state game. Carolina is underlying numbers. They 464 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,480 Speaker 1: have been so dominant. That's why it is a zero delta. 465 00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 1: Their number one in DVOA in defense, right, and for 466 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:04,200 Speaker 1: that reason, even without their best offensive player, the point 467 00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:06,919 Speaker 1: spread is right where it should be. Now, this is 468 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 1: by far the best offense Carolina has seen, or we'll 469 00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 1: see outside of Tampa Bay twice this season, So we're 470 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 1: about to find out how real that defense is. And 471 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 1: on the flip side of that, this is the best 472 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,240 Speaker 1: defense the Cowboys has seen by far. Right, Tampa Bay 473 00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:23,960 Speaker 1: had a reputation in Game one, but obviously we know 474 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,560 Speaker 1: they're not that good. So we're gonna get to see 475 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:28,479 Speaker 1: a measuring stick on the Cowboys side on an offense, 476 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,520 Speaker 1: and we're gonna see a measuring stick on Tampa Bay 477 00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:33,879 Speaker 1: and then on the defensive side. And these are the 478 00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 1: kind of games. This is why the data gets so 479 00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 1: sharp after about four weeks in the NFL, because we 480 00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,680 Speaker 1: get these kind of matchups and we got to get 481 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 1: to start to see who's for real and who's not. 482 00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 1: Again choppy, and I don't know, I don't know how 483 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:50,560 Speaker 1: you see it, but I just I see Dallas doing 484 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,640 Speaker 1: very well this season against teams that cannot score the football, 485 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,840 Speaker 1: and Carolina is not gonna But but here's a sharp here. 486 00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,000 Speaker 1: I think this is the sharpest point on this game. 487 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:02,359 Speaker 1: Were thinking, oh, no, McCaffrey, No McAffrey, he's the highest 488 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:06,360 Speaker 1: users player, He's this, he's that, whatever, and all that's true. However, 489 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,719 Speaker 1: sometimes choppy, when you lose your best player, use your 490 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:13,760 Speaker 1: highest uses, right guy, and he's a running back, you 491 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,440 Speaker 1: know that tends to make you throw the ball more, 492 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 1: which is actually better. Right, It's the most efficient way 493 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 1: to move the ball. So does Donald throw it more? 494 00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,720 Speaker 1: Do they become more dynamic on offense because of the 495 00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:27,840 Speaker 1: loss of McCaffrey because they're not feeding him or not, 496 00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:29,880 Speaker 1: they're not having anything they know they can't just rely 497 00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:33,240 Speaker 1: on a nineteen to sixteen game. I don't know, you know, 498 00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:34,879 Speaker 1: but I think that's a sharper way to look at it. 499 00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 1: And I think that's the reason why it's definitely gonna 500 00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 1: be a pass for me for sure, not only because 501 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,600 Speaker 1: the numbers are zero, but we haven't seen this version 502 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,040 Speaker 1: of Sam Donald in this offense. Without that guy to 503 00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,720 Speaker 1: lean on. I mean, they could come out. I mean, 504 00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 1: Matt Roy could come out and thought fifty times. You 505 00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,240 Speaker 1: know he's he could do that for sure, and I 506 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,159 Speaker 1: think that he's a smart enough coaching No, he's probably 507 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,600 Speaker 1: gonna have to do that against this Cowboys team if 508 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:02,160 Speaker 1: Dallas offense performs like it should. There are there are 509 00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:04,120 Speaker 1: a couple of teams I think the Cowboys just match 510 00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 1: up really really well with. And those are the teams 511 00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:09,879 Speaker 1: like this that don't score, you know, Arizona, UH in 512 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:13,440 Speaker 1: Minnesota and Tampa and the Rams. I don't want to 513 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 1: see those teams in the postseason. You're gonna have to. 514 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,840 Speaker 1: But those are teams that could score. And and the Cowboys, 515 00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 1: I don't know, their defense can hang out. I hang 516 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,720 Speaker 1: up with that. So that's where we are kind of thing. 517 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:26,439 Speaker 1: I mean, those I know, I know, I just mentioned 518 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:31,480 Speaker 1: the four best teams outside of Minnesota. Uh, Minnesota can score, 519 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:34,200 Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins have a great year, Minnesota can score like crazy. 520 00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,800 Speaker 1: So I'm just waiting for them. Yeah, I'm just waiting 521 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:39,119 Speaker 1: for them to get good. I wait for them to 522 00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:42,640 Speaker 1: fire Mike Zimmer and stop blaming Kirk Cousins for their failures. 523 00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,520 Speaker 1: Start blaming Zim. That's what I'm waiting for them. So 524 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:49,120 Speaker 1: all right, that is uh the look ahead at this 525 00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:53,080 Speaker 1: week in the football for oh one k. But let's 526 00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:58,240 Speaker 1: make some Monday. We got our best bets, our pizza parlay, 527 00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:01,800 Speaker 1: our NFL player special. It's all covered up next on 528 00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:05,480 Speaker 1: the Football four oh one K. Before there was a draft, 529 00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,360 Speaker 1: you could size up a cowboy by three simple factors. 530 00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 1: The crease in his hat, the bend of his brim, 531 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:14,200 Speaker 1: and his unbending attitude a man. Stetson didn't just protect 532 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 1: him from what life through at him. It projected a rugged, 533 00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:21,439 Speaker 1: unstoppable spirit. Stetson hats are still American, made with pride. 534 00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,679 Speaker 1: Right here in Texas. There's still the unofficial crowd of 535 00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:28,000 Speaker 1: all self respecting cowboys, and Stetson is proud to be 536 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:31,240 Speaker 1: on the field with America's team. Find a retailer nearest 537 00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:36,240 Speaker 1: you at Stetson dot com slash Cowboys. The Cowboys Way, 538 00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:40,160 Speaker 1: where sixteen Hall of Famers and five championships shows us 539 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,520 Speaker 1: what success looks like. Where Turkey is always the second 540 00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,760 Speaker 1: best part of Thanksgiving Day. Where we are all defined 541 00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:50,919 Speaker 1: by one single thing, the Star, Where we as fans 542 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:54,000 Speaker 1: know it's our job to keep the tradition going. Bank 543 00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:56,119 Speaker 1: of America is proud to be the official bank of 544 00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:58,920 Speaker 1: the Dallas Cowboys and to support the quest of living 545 00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:02,399 Speaker 1: life The Cowboy Boys Way copyright twenty twenty. Bank of 546 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:05,520 Speaker 1: America Corporation. Want to use what the pros use? How 547 00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,919 Speaker 1: about the official men's skincare brand of the Dallas Cowboys, 548 00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:11,960 Speaker 1: Jack Black. Right now you can get the Jack Black Starter, 549 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,000 Speaker 1: a curated collection of Cowboys locker room favorites, for just 550 00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,640 Speaker 1: ten bucks with free shipping. The starter includes four Jackflack 551 00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:22,399 Speaker 1: skincare favorites, plus a full sized and tense therapy lip bomb. 552 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,119 Speaker 1: Go to get Jack Black dot com slash Cowboys and 553 00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:28,320 Speaker 1: use the code word team JB. That's get Jack Black 554 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:32,200 Speaker 1: dot com slash Cowboys The Jack Black Starter, ten bucks, 555 00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:35,880 Speaker 1: free shipping, Honey, Big News, Gary, Are you okay? Oh? 556 00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:39,359 Speaker 1: I'm not Gary anymore. I'm Jackie Flash. What see? I 557 00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:41,480 Speaker 1: want the latest smartphone, but the best deals are only 558 00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:43,560 Speaker 1: for new customers. So to get a new customer deal, 559 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,760 Speaker 1: I changed my name to Jackie Flash. Okay, but the 560 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,160 Speaker 1: best smartphone deals at AT AT and T are for everyone, 561 00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:53,080 Speaker 1: new and existing customers. That's huge. Then guess who's getting 562 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:56,800 Speaker 1: the deal? Is it Jackie Flash, Jackie Flash? It's not 563 00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:00,120 Speaker 1: complicated at AT and T our best smartphone deals are 564 00:27:59,880 --> 00:28:03,119 Speaker 1: for everyone. Restrictions apply? Is it add dot com for details? 565 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:07,320 Speaker 1: Back to football four oh one King, Welcome back to 566 00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 1: the football four oh one K. I'm r J Choppy. 567 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:11,920 Speaker 1: He is bo Repki. Let's get right to a little 568 00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,000 Speaker 1: bit of best bets for the weekend. I'm in the 569 00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:17,280 Speaker 1: throw out some NFL games this week I've got but 570 00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:21,159 Speaker 1: I know, right, Let's take a look at college football. First, 571 00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:24,439 Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech. I almost don't even didn't want 572 00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:26,440 Speaker 1: to put this game in there because I'm still mad 573 00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:29,600 Speaker 1: that pitt beat my volunteers. But what else is now? 574 00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,360 Speaker 1: I'm just kind of used to it by now. Yeah, 575 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:33,840 Speaker 1: I don't think I was going to mention that in 576 00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:37,160 Speaker 1: the handicap, except oh yeah, I was. But anyway, Pittsburgh 577 00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,360 Speaker 1: last week hammered something called New Hampshire, which I'm not 578 00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:42,160 Speaker 1: sure if that's a school choppy or a financial institution, 579 00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 1: but either way, the ledger didn't balance out for New Hampshire. 580 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:46,880 Speaker 1: It was seventy seven to seven. See what I did there. 581 00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:50,040 Speaker 1: Now Pittsburgh goes to Georgia Tech, but they're only laying 582 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:53,200 Speaker 1: three and a half for it's shoppy. Pitt lay three 583 00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,160 Speaker 1: and a half two year balls in Tennessee earlier this year, 584 00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:58,480 Speaker 1: and you already mentioned how it turned out, so it 585 00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:00,880 Speaker 1: has moved past it. But Georgia Tech Tennessee are almost 586 00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:03,360 Speaker 1: identical in our power akings, but now they weren't when 587 00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:06,480 Speaker 1: they played Tennessee earlier. Tennessee was higher. So it means 588 00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:08,959 Speaker 1: we are getting value here on Pitt and pitt can 589 00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:11,520 Speaker 1: score the football. Forget the seventy seven they put up 590 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:13,600 Speaker 1: on the hedge fund. They scored fifty one against UMass, 591 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:15,960 Speaker 1: forty one on Tennessee and forty one on Western Michigan. 592 00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:19,440 Speaker 1: Now Georgia Georgia Tech did put up forty five versus 593 00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,760 Speaker 1: UNC and that is where this game is getting over inflated. 594 00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,160 Speaker 1: That's where the over inflations come from UNC. In that game, 595 00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:28,640 Speaker 1: Chop he had three turnovers. They led to much lopsided, 596 00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,080 Speaker 1: more Lobsiter score than it should have been. But before that, 597 00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:34,440 Speaker 1: the most point Georgia Take had scored all seasons FPS 598 00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:37,360 Speaker 1: school was twenty one versus Northern Illinois, who was one 599 00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:39,960 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty fifth in scoring defense, by the way, 600 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,400 Speaker 1: and they only scored twenty one. They give up forty 601 00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:44,960 Speaker 1: five points a game. Georgia Tech didn't even score half 602 00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:50,080 Speaker 1: of their average. So love Pitt here, love pitt Okay, 603 00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,120 Speaker 1: I'm down. I like that. I like that that pick 604 00:29:53,240 --> 00:30:01,000 Speaker 1: right there. How about this is interesting? Alabama against Old Miss. 605 00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:05,560 Speaker 1: This bow was like a twenty point spread at two 606 00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:09,000 Speaker 1: o'clock and in four hours it went down to fourteen 607 00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:11,200 Speaker 1: and a half. I have not seen line movement like 608 00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:14,360 Speaker 1: that in quite a while. All the attention is on 609 00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,200 Speaker 1: Old Miss, all the betting, all the wagering is on 610 00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:23,120 Speaker 1: Old Miss. You're getting Bama at at two scores. Nobody 611 00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:27,320 Speaker 1: ever gets Bama at two possessions fourteen and a half. 612 00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:29,720 Speaker 1: Where we snagged this one that, like you said, moved 613 00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:32,120 Speaker 1: all the way down to that. Now you need to 614 00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:34,240 Speaker 1: grab it now, African to bet in Mississippi. Don't let 615 00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:35,840 Speaker 1: it slip any further because I think that it will. 616 00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,440 Speaker 1: We tell you on the podcast last year before before 617 00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:42,080 Speaker 1: last year, Nick Saban, if you took Tennessee out of it, 618 00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:44,000 Speaker 1: it was a fifty one percent ATS coach in the 619 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:47,080 Speaker 1: an SEC for his entire career at Bama. It's fifty 620 00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:49,479 Speaker 1: fifty with that guy, whether he covers whether he doesn't. Now, 621 00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:52,720 Speaker 1: last year he only lost two games against against the spread. Period. 622 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:56,200 Speaker 1: But it's a post COVID college football world and things 623 00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:58,200 Speaker 1: have returned back to normal. The tier two and two 624 00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,000 Speaker 1: ATS on the season, the human to the margin of 625 00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:03,600 Speaker 1: minus four points. Old Miss, on the other hand, is 626 00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:08,000 Speaker 1: two and one ATS with a plus twelve humulative ATS margin. 627 00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:10,760 Speaker 1: BAMMA covered against Miami, inning its southern Miss, but they 628 00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:13,920 Speaker 1: didn't cover against Florida with basically the exact same spread, 629 00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:15,720 Speaker 1: which we had Florida in that game, and we hit 630 00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,200 Speaker 1: that game. Now, that game was in Florida, but the 631 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,520 Speaker 1: difference between Florida, who is six in our power ranking 632 00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:23,040 Speaker 1: Old Miss, who was tenth, is about three points. So 633 00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,720 Speaker 1: that's where you're seeing the flip. It's the same exact market. 634 00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:29,240 Speaker 1: BAMMA didn't come close to covering those two scores against Florida, 635 00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:30,880 Speaker 1: and I think it's still wrong and I think we're 636 00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:33,160 Speaker 1: still getting the value on here. So hotty totty baby, 637 00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:36,239 Speaker 1: fifty one percent against the SEC. If you take Tennessee out, 638 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:40,560 Speaker 1: if you add Tennessee, who are they? Where are they at? Like? Oh, yeah, 639 00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,360 Speaker 1: he's never lost. I know, I know. I just had 640 00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:46,600 Speaker 1: defeated against them. Okay, So like Old miss plus the 641 00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 1: fourteen and a half, it's urt. Oh, it's gutsy. I 642 00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:51,960 Speaker 1: like it. I like it. That's gutsy. I might be 643 00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:53,880 Speaker 1: inclined to take Bama on that one only just because 644 00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,760 Speaker 1: I'm thinking this is one of those games. This is 645 00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,200 Speaker 1: where those Bamma games it's saved. It's like, yeah, we're 646 00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:02,000 Speaker 1: going all in one last night on this game. The 647 00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,440 Speaker 1: total and this will be one of maybe two sols 648 00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:06,960 Speaker 1: will see this all year. It's gonna finish around eighty 649 00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:09,200 Speaker 1: or eighty one. There was only two or I think 650 00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:11,120 Speaker 1: there was four of those last year in college football. 651 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:14,280 Speaker 1: Three out of those four one under. But if it's 652 00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:18,160 Speaker 1: gonna go that way, which easily can you got Lane 653 00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 1: Kiffin in that offense, they're not gonna stop throwing. Ever, 654 00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:25,080 Speaker 1: that's a huge backdoor to walk into. So it's that's 655 00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:27,240 Speaker 1: another reason why we like it so much. All right, 656 00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:30,560 Speaker 1: very good NFL player prop this week, Tom Brady over 657 00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:32,920 Speaker 1: under two and a half passing touchdowns. You like the 658 00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:37,520 Speaker 1: over swaw me. We love this is about This is 659 00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:40,800 Speaker 1: about a square as we're ever gonna get on this podcast. 660 00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:44,240 Speaker 1: But it's the situation. He's gonna want to play his 661 00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:46,360 Speaker 1: very best game in New England if he can help it. 662 00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:48,640 Speaker 1: He is going to throw the ball in the red 663 00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:51,400 Speaker 1: zone as much as possible. He'll take any cheap touchdown, 664 00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:54,440 Speaker 1: especially because you know he wants to get his boy 665 00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:56,600 Speaker 1: Grounk involved. You know they want to shove it so 666 00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:59,479 Speaker 1: far up Bill's reary end that he'll have to waddle 667 00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:01,080 Speaker 1: his way out of that stade. He won't be able 668 00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:03,280 Speaker 1: to walk run for a week. That's what they want. 669 00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:06,840 Speaker 1: Tommy is shown he is the most vindictive person, yes, 670 00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:09,680 Speaker 1: of all time. He's so petty and I love it. 671 00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,040 Speaker 1: And that pettiness is gonna win us money. Baby. That 672 00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:13,960 Speaker 1: guy's gonna score as many he's gonna throw as many 673 00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:16,960 Speaker 1: touchdowns as he possibly can on Sunday. He's not gonna stop. 674 00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:19,920 Speaker 1: They're putting fifty one on the board. I got, I 675 00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:22,920 Speaker 1: got two. I know I have two NFL games I 676 00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 1: want to bet here. The first is Arizona and the Rams. 677 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:29,000 Speaker 1: I like the over in this game. It's at fifty four. 678 00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:35,360 Speaker 1: The Rams offense is clicking, and Kyler, I mean, Kyler 679 00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,280 Speaker 1: is a good player. I don't know how the Rams 680 00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:40,200 Speaker 1: defense ain't as good as it was last year. It's good, 681 00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:43,360 Speaker 1: it's good. They gave up twenty four to the Colts 682 00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:46,080 Speaker 1: with Carson Wentz. They should have given up more. Carson 683 00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:47,720 Speaker 1: turned the ball over in the red zone there and 684 00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:51,800 Speaker 1: at a ridiculous interception. Uh. You know, they allowed quite 685 00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:55,200 Speaker 1: a bit of points to Tommy Boy too. So give 686 00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:59,800 Speaker 1: me the over fifty four and I like Detroit plus three. 687 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:01,760 Speaker 1: You may get it maybe at two and a half. 688 00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:04,480 Speaker 1: I've also seen it at three. Yeah, if this is 689 00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:06,200 Speaker 1: this is gonna be one of the winds they steal 690 00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:08,880 Speaker 1: this year at Chicago. Looks right for the pick and 691 00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:13,319 Speaker 1: Detroit just kind of beat themselves. Coach kneecaps a little 692 00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:15,480 Speaker 1: bit more conservative they would have liked. But you know, 693 00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:17,880 Speaker 1: golf has not made plays. But he hasn't hurt them, 694 00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:21,439 Speaker 1: he hasn't helped them. He's kind of been a safety guy. 695 00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:26,399 Speaker 1: He's been the stabilizing force. So I like Detroit plus three. 696 00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:31,880 Speaker 1: Love that pick, love that pick. All right, good deal, Okay, 697 00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:35,040 Speaker 1: Pizzaboddy partlight time three teamer ten bucks to win two 698 00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:39,120 Speaker 1: ninety five Kentucky plus two sixty five Charlotte plus three 699 00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:43,760 Speaker 1: ten Liberty plus one oh five bow the Liberty Liberties Baby. 700 00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:46,799 Speaker 1: They did not cover last week. We had the guts 701 00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:49,400 Speaker 1: of a burglar and we went against Liberty in the spread. 702 00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:51,600 Speaker 1: We pulled that one right out of the fire. I 703 00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:53,719 Speaker 1: wouldn't advise that too much, though. They're the best team 704 00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:56,560 Speaker 1: ats in all of college football since I think about 705 00:34:56,560 --> 00:35:01,080 Speaker 1: two fifteen or sixteen. The Liberty Baby, they don't fall 706 00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:03,719 Speaker 1: very often. They're gonna go win a game on the 707 00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:06,239 Speaker 1: road this week. Their quarterback is gonna have a good 708 00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:09,279 Speaker 1: balance back performance. He's a pretty good little quarterback and 709 00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:12,479 Speaker 1: people need to start paying attention to him. And then, 710 00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:14,759 Speaker 1: on top of that, I feel the best about this 711 00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:16,800 Speaker 1: parlay I felt about any parley. So I'm gonna advise 712 00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:20,920 Speaker 1: everyone to sprinkle sprinkle a little something on each one 713 00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:24,160 Speaker 1: of these games individually, because if Kentucky or Charlotte hit, 714 00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:27,319 Speaker 1: you're paid already, So this is one of those you 715 00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:30,719 Speaker 1: want to bet each leg individually also along with the parlay. Again, 716 00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,120 Speaker 1: I wouldn't go full unit, but maybe half a unit 717 00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:35,200 Speaker 1: on each and if you're units one hundred bucks, that's 718 00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:37,279 Speaker 1: one thirty five, you know one what is that? One 719 00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:40,520 Speaker 1: sixty five and then fifty bucks? Basically any one of 720 00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:44,000 Speaker 1: those hits and you are paid, all right, good stuff. 721 00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:47,080 Speaker 1: So they're just Kentucky Charlotte Liberty, the Pizza Money parlay 722 00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:49,560 Speaker 1: ten dollars with two ninety five. We also are on 723 00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:52,400 Speaker 1: pit minus three and a half Ole Miss plus the 724 00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:55,000 Speaker 1: fourteen and a half Tom Brady over two and a 725 00:35:55,040 --> 00:36:01,240 Speaker 1: half past two touchdowns, Rams Cards over Detroit plus three. 726 00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:04,440 Speaker 1: All right, bo, another great episode of the Football four 727 00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:06,760 Speaker 1: oh one. OK. Where can we find you on social 728 00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:10,880 Speaker 1: media and such? You find us at FGH Vegas on Twitter, 729 00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,280 Speaker 1: you can find us at the Football Gloryhall dot com. 730 00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:15,719 Speaker 1: Or you can find our podcast, the Football Glory Hole 731 00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:19,239 Speaker 1: Podcast anywhere, and I mean anywhere you find podcasts. I'm 732 00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:20,960 Speaker 1: r J. Schoppy from one oh five through the Fan 733 00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:23,320 Speaker 1: find me Monday through Friday, five thirty to ten on 734 00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:25,360 Speaker 1: one oh five to the Fan myself with Sean Shreeve 735 00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:28,120 Speaker 1: Troy Hughes on Twitter at r J Choppy. I keep 736 00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,520 Speaker 1: it simple and I'm a lord. Yes, I am a 737 00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:37,000 Speaker 1: styled lord for bo I'm Marj. We will talk to 738 00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:40,120 Speaker 1: you guys next week on the Football four oh one. Kay, 739 00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:42,280 Speaker 1: let's win some cash